Newsletter · · Ashutosh Agarwal

Walmart Q1 Earnings and Weak Q2 Outlook Split Analysts Into Bull and Bear Camps - The Walmart Watch - Week of May 24, 2026

Walmart investor newsletter for May 20–24, 2026. WMT's Q1 splits podcasters: bulls cite share gains and AI scale-up, bears flag margin pressure and tariff exposure.

The Walmart Watch

Week of May 24, 2026: Walmart Q1 Earnings and Weak Q2 Outlook Split Analysts Into Bull and Bear Camps

Issue Date: May 24, 2026 | Coverage: May 19–23, 2026

🎯 This Week's Big Story: Walmart's Q1 Print Sparks a Wall Street Debate

Walmart's Q1 FY2026 earnings dropped Thursday, May 21, and the podcast world lit up. The reaction was swift and severe: shares fell past 6% as the retail giant issued a fiscal Q2 earnings outlook below market estimates, even as it reported better-than-expected revenue in the previous three-month period.

By Friday morning, Goldman Sachs, UBS, BNP Paribas, RBC, Truist, and BofA Securities had all adjusted their price targets, and the podcast circuit had divided into bull and bear camps.

🎙️ Featured Podcasts This Week

1. "Power Lunch" (CNBC), May 21, 2026

Featuring Greg Mellick, Evercore ISI

Mellick, whose firm-wide call aligns with Goldman's continued Buy rating, admitted Evercore removed WMT from its top-5 list "a couple months ago" on valuation grounds. His key insight: gasoline prices are now the swing variable, having overtaken the tax-refund tailwind in mid-April 2026. Memorable line: "If there is a second or third opportunity, I would say back up the truck."

2. "Fast Money" (CNBC), May 21, 2026

Featuring Bill Simon (Former Walmart U.S. CEO), Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Julie Beal

The most-watched WMT episode of the week. Bill Simon's appearance is notable given our key-person list, the former U.S. CEO praised current management's execution but said the bar is now "perfection" at 42x earnings. Simon's contrarian call: prefer Target. Guy Adami took the opposite view, recommending buying the dip; Dan Nathan defended his Amazon preference.

3. "Squawk on the Street" (CNBC), May 21, 2026

Featuring Jim Cramer

Cramer called the selloff an overreaction to the gasoline commentary and named WMT the #1 stock to buy on an Iran resolution (i.e., if oil/gas prices fall). His framing: WMT is now "de-risked."

4. "Bloomberg Intelligence", May 21, 2026

Featuring Jen Bartaschis, Senior Retail Analyst

The most bullish take of the week. Bartaschis highlighted record Walmart+ adds, e-commerce profitability creating a "virtuous cycle," and stickiness among higher-income trade-down shoppers. Her thesis aligns with the narrative that Furner took over during a period of sustained growth for Walmart, driven by gains among higher-income shoppers and expansion in e-commerce.

5. "Real Eisman Playbook", May 22, 2026

Featuring Steve Eisman

Eisman flagged the EPS in-line print (vs. typical beats) as "perhaps the most important news of the week", a consumer stress signal. This was reinforced by the official numbers: Walmart Inc. posted Q1 Adjusted EPS of $0.66 per share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.66, meeting, not beating.

6. "RiskReversal Pod", May 22, 2026

Featuring Brian Belski, BMO Chief Investment Strategist

Belski's most actionable call: "I think a big pair trade's coming out of Walmart and into Target." Holds WMT in BMO's value and dividend growth portfolios but expects 6–12 months of headwinds. Notable that this came one day after Target raised its full-year sales growth outlook on the back of higher-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.

7. "Motley Fool Hidden Gems", May 22, 2026

Featuring John Quast & Lou Whiteman

Both refused to pay 42–45x earnings for decelerating comps. Both prefer Target. Whiteman's nuance: "You'd still rather have been a Walmart holder for the last five years", structural thesis intact, near-term setup poor.

8. "Eurodollar University", May 22, 2026

Featuring Jeff Snider

Macro-bearish take: WMT's price absorption is itself a warning sign about consumer fragility. If WMT can't keep absorbing, "there's nowhere left to go" for low-income consumers.

9. "Modern Retail", May 23, 2026

Featuring Mitchell Parton

The most operationally-focused episode of the week. Parton highlighted WMT's expansion into plumbing and electrical services for small businesses, potentially "as big a change for them as advertising" if it scales. Also flagged the ~$2.9B potential tariff refund that's not in guidance.

10. "The Canadian Investor", May 23, 2026

Discussed Trump political risk on pricing decisions and upstream agricultural input inflation (diesel, fertilizer) not yet reflected in WMT shelf prices.

11. "The Rundown", May 21, 2026 & "Financial Exchange Show", May 21, 2026

Earnings-day coverage focused on the e-commerce strength (+26%) and Chuck Zodda's bearish take that sales pegged to grow by 4% to 5% on a constant currency basis in the current quarter implies no real volume growth net of inflation.

📊 What the Sell-Side Did This Week (Context for Podcast Views)

Firm Action New PT Rating
Goldman Sachs Raised $138 → $154 Buy
UBS (Michael Lasser*) Cut $147 → $141 Buy
BNP Paribas Cut $147 → $146 Outperform
RBC Cut $140 → $137 Outperform
Truist Raised $139 → $140 Buy
BofA Securities Cut $150 → $144 Buy

*From our key-people list, UBS's Michael Lasser remains the lead WMT analyst. BofA's analyst Christopher Nardone wrote in a Thursday note that Walmart's share gains are expected to accelerate with a price-conscious consumer and drive a return to a beat/raise cycle assuming the freight environment doesn't worsen.

Consensus: Walmart has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $140.39, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

👔 Key People Watch (Per Your Influence List)

🚨 John Furner (CEO), Heavy Activity

This was a defining week for Furner's young tenure.

On the print: "Our results reflect our continued focus on delivering across the enterprise," Chief Executive John Furner said in a statement. "It's a disciplined approach that's helping us grow the business and strengthen returns."

Insider activity: John R. Furner, Director, President & CEO, on May 21, 2026, sold 13,125 shares in Walmart for $1,628,574. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Furner has control over a total of 799,550 common shares of the company, with 661,037 shares held directly and 138,512 controlled indirectly.

Leadership shakeup: Two of Walmart's executives are leaving the company less than four months after John Furner became CEO. Tom Ward, chief operating officer of Sam's Club, is retiring, while Cedric Clark, Walmart's executive vice president of U.S. store operations, is departing, according to internal memos. Walmart expects to announce Clark's replacement in the coming weeks, while timing for Ward's successor remains unclear. Several podcasts speculated whether this signals strategic pivots or normal CEO-transition turnover.

💵 Doug McMillon (Former CEO, Board)

Notably absent from podcasts this week. First post-handoff earnings without him as the public face.

📈 John David Rainey (CFO)

Did not appear directly on podcasts but his earnings-call commentary was heavily quoted, particularly the sub-10-gallon fill-up data point that has become Wall Street's go-to consumer stress indicator.

🏛️ Lina Khan (FTC), No relevant appearances this week.

📊 Sell-Side Analysts on Air:

  • Michael Lasser (UBS), Not on podcasts directly, but UBS's research note was widely cited
  • Simeon Gutman (Morgan Stanley), No appearances this week
  • Neil Saunders (GlobalData), No appearances this week

👴 Bill Simon (Former WMT U.S. CEO), Bonus add to your list

His Fast Money appearance was arguably the most influential single podcast segment of the week given his operator credibility.

🔮 The Consensus Pair Trade Emerging

The dominant cross-podcast call this week: Long Target / Short (or Underweight) Walmart

Independently advocated by Belski (BMO), Simon (former WMT CEO), Quast & Whiteman (Motley Fool), and Steve Grasso. Rationale:

  • WMT at ~42x trailing P/E vs. TGT at materially lower multiple
  • TGT just raised guidance the day before WMT's print
  • TGT's trough margins offer more upside
  • WMT's beat-and-raise streak just broke

📌 What to Watch Next Week

  1. Cedric Clark replacement announcement, expected "in coming weeks"
  2. Gas/oil price trajectory, Cramer's "Iran resolution" thesis
  3. Q2 pricing decisions, Will Furner pass tariff costs through?
  4. Furner's first public conference appearance as CEO post-earnings

Sources

News Documents:

Podcasts Cited: