# The Satellite & Space-Comms Race - Week of June 19, 2026: SpaceX IPOs at $1.78T as AST Stacks Three BlueBirds

> Satellite and space-comms newsletter for the week of June 19, 2026. SpaceX went public at a $1.78T valuation and ripped ~50%, while AST SpaceMobile stacked three more BlueBirds in orbit and the pure-plays whipsawed on the float mechanics versus fundamentals debate.

## The Satellite & Space-Comms Race

### Week of June 19, 2026: SpaceX IPOs at $1.78T as AST Stacks Three BlueBirds

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The thing the sector spent two years waiting for finally happened: SpaceX is public. In the same 96 hours, the company everyone treats as its D2D rival quietly stacked three more satellites on a Falcon 9. The pure-plays got dumped, then half of them bounced. One housekeeping note: this issue is sourced entirely from podcasts in the trailing seven days, and not one company insider sat for a mic, everything below is **investor** or **pundit** commentary, tagged as such.

## TL;DR

- **SpaceX priced at $135, a $1.78T valuation, ~4-5% float, all-primary, then ripped ~50% to pass Amazon (~$2.7T).** Damodaran pencils $1.2-1.3T. The float, not the fundamentals, is running this tape.
- **AST SpaceMobile put BlueBirds 8, 9, 10 in orbit (total now 9; target 45 by year-end)**; the bull camp expects a definitive T-Mobile deal in Q4-ish, once the AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile JV clears regulators.
- **Pure-plays whipsawed:** Rocket Lab fell 11% on listing day, bounced, and is +56% YTD after a $90M Space Force win. Globalstar, Iridium, EchoStar and Apple-SOS were **quiet on the pods this week.**

## What's New

**1. The largest IPO in history broke every rule of how IPOs work.** On *Patrick Boyle On Finance*, "[What SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI's IPOs mean for investors](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjgzdTz2j1Oq4RlPeMIXcd-2BniGY6f1vaDtkgGdr44U-2FgRPfRbWTLrODu4tl0TDiAga32L7s71rjnSW2oaRfkheUso-2BV7UQzheyzAzNV-2BrSXgw-3D-3DvpxZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FZ5mRXnvtdWhpnvJEetArjZz6vlhGa0uRazmJdhs33GNLd-2BLhzfu1yrto3ybw55ywjH1TGrSP2FYJK8URHbff5qIRs-2FwX5IRWwMucOeOzbcUAUB4zMviiZtuBa9rrzJHuQ-3D-3D)" (Jun 14, **PUNDIT**), Boyle lays out the mechanics: 555M+ shares at exactly $135, ~$75B raised (up to ~$86B with the green shoe), $1.78T valuation, and only **~4-5% of the company sold** versus a typical ~20%, with dual-class voting and Texas re-incorporation. A tiny float with 7:1 retail oversubscription is a *mechanical* squeeze, and it sets the sentiment anchor every other name now trades against.

**2. AST SpaceMobile's BlueBirds 8-10 reached orbit.** Per *The Rundown*, "[OpenAI Burned $3.7B in Cash...](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6DeGRmUPZ96WrRMP48r50lpvHlL4g89W8OPcbgqd8iHeDyPDYQqQ6ykjD1aYppVxmN2meNlJmiHAmkexLMa1Gj20zu1-2B-2BrslOZYbu-2BJiaOA-3D-3Dddf0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FW6lOUbzW8AG6jk353dGzSVuPEk4P9c3xDX5DhBY8iizJky3ZRIMQHwc4LP9OLsKC1FIGbdI7q-2BxbjttyJ71J07xiXdJm2bgoEpNXWC0299qymaGj6Y90tIpVMZMsGHYwg-3D-3D)" (Jun 17, **PUNDIT/news**), AST launched three BlueBirds on a Falcon 9, taking its constellation to **nine satellites against a goal of 45 by year-end**; the stock was +6% that morning. On the *AST SpaceMobile Podcast*, "[Historic Deployment: Bluebirds 8-10 Reach Orbit](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh3BJUCwkENYXmAgInZXI33rOGRECbMNA-2Fj-2F9lG-2FFoSe8jBRfnj8u9-2FVuA3nZPkKL5LP0Kqz-2F3BVW8a6-2FMzqSRnXmVwybfZ77bCMFiUJdsJHQ-3D-3DJAVL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FUrgYTa2rxOgau0YpUcmH0Er-2ByJgtsPZ4hw9b5wYNsh6No18TpJ3NmOlSQrRt2p4WL8G2c-2Bs4QCWn0lBEdTK-2BOTHCNb08dQb8Y2g0zP7nl6dpsNWQH0qDaueNygSSV3BCw-3D-3D)" (Jun 17, **INVESTOR**), the host adds the texture: first **Block 2** batch flown stacked, production ~4-5/month on composite structures (targeting 6 in Q3), BlueBirds 11-13 shipping for a late-July/August launch. Beta needs ~25 birds, cadence is the whole thesis for a pre-revenue name.

**3. Damodaran says the price is a half-trillion too high.** On *Excess Returns*, "[The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj45unsX4lYI9kCMVKuCi8Yez7Be5b5WGQYBsfOMbsLO55dOm8mYycy0ZJ0zpICEOoNqznuiR-2FihXuaEYLkwBhcDxZSvxtdBForqTRB86Iv-2Fg-3D-3DwGGi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FSJPwC5zPTYS-2FPzdi8d-2BGh7VxSa8-2F6yoOZUEBJkisQ60cZAD9LHj1iHcyvNqUCG5DrC7d0N7JVv2zzGRnuQPPMi4Gy0yfaMApA0lATEV0v8XSPnsnLHK-2FXLphege6u4y-2BA-3D-3D)" (Jun 19, **PUNDIT**), the NYU dean splits SpaceX into launch (60% of a market 8-10x bigger), Starlink (~$15B revenue, 60-70% of the total), and AI/Grok (he grants a $5-6T TAM, not the prospectus's $26T) for a ~$1.2-1.3T DCF. His sharpest point is the AI contradiction, SpaceX rents data-center capacity to Google and Anthropic while claiming it will out-compete them:

> "That's like a manufacturing company claiming that they're going to get a big market share, but they built a big factory and they rent out two-thirds of their factory to their two biggest competitors."

**4. Rocket Lab is re-rating from "launcher" to "infrastructure."** On *Brew Markets*, "[Banning Kids from Social Media & SpaceX's Ripple Effect](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgAaNsQeL05GIAuXK-2B2B9Zh6PpJc-2Fn0I4wYcFtvw6EkvCj6C5z-2BqgRK-2B-2B8ZDcuG-2FCMTMEjzIVFhR-2Fo4us38Zo44itBj4H9TrVq5Jj-2BnwDBMEw-3D-3DtLby_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FenA2N6oFYjdPwaQ4TGsSFpajqxsq9IHnTURbQEJmrKasppeuT8V-2Fhkbtirg2LZy2Ybp74IQy8j1DtzlCvJ4npgNMXIDkqn0oAqNn84-2B47D8OupOXIi0hVxUQ4Ml-2BPVU-2Bg-3D-3D)" (Jun 15, **INVESTOR/PUNDIT**), Anne Berry notes RKLB just won a **$90M US Space Force contract to build and operate a pair of geostationary satellites** and "increasingly looks like a space infrastructure company rather than a launch provider." Recurring, owned-asset revenue earns a higher multiple than per-launch fees.

## The Debate: Is the D2D TAM Real, or a Story?

**Steel-man the bulls.** On the *AST SpaceMobile Podcast*, "[Why Starlink's Direct to Device Strategy is Delusional](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgkOtB9obiB7TecvfgbOh5DoYnousjcm4-2BMWAISDZAoohPEW-2Fu9PiYoPC5MyJ7I3Ttygu5tlgtQ6A52BaEl-2BwC13LMVZV0TSqCe-2BK4wWDn8xA-3D-3DpDT2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FY6bq27JWHy3pHJ-2FO-2BQExHvgtGvd-2BM-2BCxyuc51wIAnORKjpJkG8DmHq7bjT1Jm6Zw5VorVcnDMGUowlbwi9wr5eqL8BnIv-2BvVYetnbHgGInAXCLdzhl34TvQsKvKrCg8wA-3D-3D)" (Jun 16, **INVESTOR**), the case is that D2D is a **>$1T opportunity (≈$750B for direct-to-device specifically)** and that architecture decides the winner. AST's first constellation uses carriers' **low-band** spectrum, propagation that works in tunnels, forests and indoors, while Starlink's mid-band S-band can't, and a Starlink-run mobile service would need a separate eSIM and subscription. Regulatory wins are stacking (Brazil's Anatel approved AST and handed it 10MHz x 10MHz of S-band for free; AST is testing 900 MHz for the Space Development Agency). The most aggressive framing came from VC Jason Calacanis on *This Week in Startups*, "[SpaceX IPO Day: What Wall St. and the media missed](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiioQB5xJPfynCjlJ8WkOCCWnoNBHVAuMOvaoF-2Fh3ToBuLAWmT7XYFtj6F0nJVzyZdzJYYTdGCTvZGlOsRIdNYz-2FHqt8oTaNpGupWCZ2Lpz-2FA-3D-3DLReg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FQl5dFlpcP7syvCcRl0HYvkAVdOMnPCof5NKbFDcqZxTFeUDx8QCxFSSWiwd-2FTd5vGZJOirsFEqSWM7RbjomnZoa-2FvgkJ2CkThnHJN8muq61jqSU86-2BYmEARG-2FBUJsMFtg-3D-3D)" (Jun 13, **INVESTOR**), who put the odds Starlink scales from 10M to 100M subscribers via direct-to-device at "99.999%."

**Steel-man the bears.** The TAM numbers are theater. On *Patrick Boyle* (above), the prospectus's **$28.5T** TAM implies every financially active human on Earth spends ~$28,500/year on space-and-AI, and only ~$2T touches space at all:

> "The market for space launch is about half the size of the market for potato chips."

And the model is unproven: no one has shown carriers will share economics generously, AST is pre-revenue and burning, and Starlink, armed with $75B and ~10,000 satellites, can out-spend the deployment race. The honest read: the *direction* is real, but the *size and timing* are narrative, not number.

## Stocks in Play

- **ASTS:** *Bull:* nine birds up, cadence ramping, low-band coverage edge, expected Q4 T-Mobile deal. *Bear:* pre-revenue, needs ~25 birds for beta, ~68M shares short (near all-time high), dependent on a carrier JV clearing regulators. *Catalyst:* BlueBirds 11-13 launch (late-July/Aug) and any T-Mobile MOU.
- **RKLB:** *Bull:* $90M Space Force GEO win, +56% YTD, infrastructure re-rate. *Bear:* dumped 11% the moment investors could buy SpaceX directly. *Catalyst:* Neutron progress, further defense awards.
- **SpaceX (now public):** *Bull:* Starlink ~$15B revenue and reportedly profitable, 10M subs in 164 countries, launch moat (*7investing*, Jun 16; *Trappin Tuesday's*, Jun 14). *Bear:* ~90x trailing sales, ~$9B quarterly FCF burn, a **$235B cash gap through 2030** (*Patrick Boyle*), Damodaran's $1.2-1.3T. *Catalyst:* Q2 earnings (August), first real numbers and first insider-unlock gate.
- **GSAT, IRDM, SATS:** **Quiet week**; no dedicated podcast coverage. Apple/Globalstar emergency-SOS read-through also quiet.

## Read-throughs

- **Carriers (VZ, T, TMUS):** the *AST SpaceMobile Podcast* (Jun 16, **INVESTOR**) notes **Oppenheimer downgraded AT&T** on Starlink competitive concern, and that satellite now eats ~20% of carrier earnings-call Q&A (versus near-zero two-three years ago). T-Mobile's Starlink exclusivity ends June/July; a definitive AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile D2D JV is the gating event for AST's commercial deals, satellite has gone from footnote to swing factor on carrier multiples.
- **Launch & component suppliers:** *Brew Markets* (Jun 15) flags **Linde (LIN)**, ~$243B market cap, fuels ~70% of SpaceX launches, breaking ground on a Brownsville plant <30 mi from Starbase, +22% YTD, as the cleanest supplier read. Intuitive Machines (LUNR) and Redwire sold off on listing day.
- **SpaceX valuation as sentiment anchor:** it priced at $1.78T and trades ~$2.7T, *The Wall Street Skinny*, "[Elon Musk Engineered SpaceX IPO 'Perfectly'](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJ0ZRcCDC932OyfRFvCJninieSDNEjt4c0SRwMFdd7nBTEQYGOtZ4kuxTOuTnaohHx4xlO6SFO-2FyKIQMUI1EUPpuNjFLhc2AodE48wuL7CYQ-3D-3DtWJk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWVvVMCMwkCZx1-2FF9jflmmcFC7mx4hdskMMORv06pYA-2FXAFx2yXDUfIs7-2FFptne6KVAYqv9mw1ixUm3-2FtgeME3MyA10E-2Bb9V52uev-2FtyZgMRemTD1-2FB7cvFHy6wXVGlT0ppLSw7N-2FSDXKlJ3wEK8IiC5LntQzwpvfGEzJDBt0w7WA-3D-3D)" (Jun 19, **PUNDIT**), details how Musk set a take-it-or-leave-it $135 (no book-build), with perpetual-futures markets pre-baking the "perfect" 20% pop. When the anchor trades on float mechanics and meme flow, the group's beta gets noisier, fade the read-through into the small-caps accordingly.

## What Changed vs Last Week

I don't have last week's issue on file to diff line-by-line, so I'll anchor to what this week's pods say about the prior setup. The change is regime-level: the sector spent late May in euphoria heading into the IPO, then the **Blue Origin New Glenn failure** (which cost AST a BlueBird) "put a damper on things" (*AST SpaceMobile Podcast*, Jun 16). This week the IPO cleared, turning two years of *chatter* into a hard $1.78T print and a live, tradable anchor, and AST answered with a clean launch. The "will it/won't it" overhang is gone; the new debate is float mechanics versus fundamentals, and it's already pulling capital *out* of the pure-plays and *into* the mothership.