# Commodity FX - Week of June 20, 2026: Hawkish Warsh and Cheap Oil Split Commodity FX

> Commodity FX newsletter for the week of June 20, 2026. A hawkish first FOMC under Kevin Warsh and a US-Iran oil crash pulled the commodity-currency bloc apart, with the carry-rich Aussie shrugging off the dollar breakout while the petro-loonie and Norwegian crown wore the oil move.

## Commodity FX

### Week of June 20, 2026: Hawkish Warsh and Cheap Oil Split Commodity FX

---

Two things happened this week, and together they pulled the commodity-FX bloc apart. Kevin Warsh ran his first FOMC and, instead of the dovish pivot half the street expected, planted a hawkish flag and yanked the dot plot. A day later, the US-Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil into freefall. The petro-currencies are wearing the oil move. The Aussie, sitting on the fattest policy rate in the G10, mostly shrugged.

## TL;DR

- **The dollar broke out.** DXY cleared its year-long range to ~100.8, a fresh one-year high, on Warsh's hawkish hold, with new 2026 highs against the loonie and the yen.
- **Oil cracked.** Brent fell roughly $40 from its crisis peak into the high-70s/low-80s. The street is genuinely split on whether $80 is the floor or $70 prints next.
- **The bloc diverged.** AUD was the *only* G10 currency to gain on the dollar after the FOMC; NOK and CAD took the oil hit. Both Norges and the Riksbank are on hold but leaning to hike.

## What's New

**Warsh came out swinging.** New chair, old reputation, think more, speak less, and hit inflation. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn captured the trade on [The KE Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhNBduYw9nM6CFS5cSedVznItPzdKA6MxQ85Y1AvY2LvIlaG09WxoSbEiBSOVyF80RlJSGXaC9fnWitxlNmjTeRUzJBPamAIXpdecTjOM7dqg-3D-3DnYYd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQcvyHSMkqv-2B3kaFHU-2F4kLQ8RY8a-2BR4tnt7uYmafDl6-2FNx98rc5s14-2Fg5-2F82O-2Bqb7LM6TcWsoTp6SWhGMI39ySqukgkR3As-2BgdZbT49eh93Lju2AvW3IlJp2kPYaQa6CW9w-3D-3D): "He didn't do anything, but what he said mattered. And those dot plots mattered." His read is a clean dollar breakout, DXY around 100.6 and climbing, next stop 102-plus, with the US two-year up 11bp on the week while the UK's fell 15. Wider rate gaps, stronger dollar, and a fresh year-high against CAD. *Operator view.*

**The split runs along the oil line.** The neatest framing of the week came from Rebecca Patterson (ex-Bridgewater CIO, now at the CFR) on [Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOikGKYk9NT1m3Mn1MTk2u2hJrvZvPmO9gVdwl0Egv5ZLBR4UNgsdycvtCPAQ5YQ0z4DOQZCdj1em9CoDdZse-2BJSC50s0F8-2ByU6sZ7T4ImxL5g-3D-3DIi9C_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQap8iFYRvvTr0QwMUHYioSERVSdlidq9Yd4Iz2hcfoFi6zUTfIqVBITetQrI-2BdQTGIKnCtHJ7-2FFcWM8jDTPhnNDifrzEyyZB5JkojPjMirkpEF70qzZsVrNpNgMeKYI9tA-3D-3D): before the weekend's news, the dollar "was down against only two major currencies, the Norwegian crown and the Australian dollar, both big commodity exporters. It was stronger against everything else." That was the setup. The oil crash then knocked the legs out from under the petro half of that pair. *Operator view.*

**The RBA held, and the Aussie's carry did the work.** The RBA sat at 4.35%, with Bullock "not ready to call victory" on inflation but comfortable enough on activity, per NAB's Phil Dobbie and Taylor Nugent on [NAB Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjaO7nF1Em9mvzX-2B8NXOGqcf1elKanleIirVCswmeNIBhb1RsH7R88KOKHFJbYb3Fq7R1LXQA7qqqpXgrGWi4Dp6uKks2yV9KG3-2FcOBoWGA4Q-3D-3D97FQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQbApBa1Le-2FSOkjs45-2FJHqz3AyL5loTj1ogAbBSgh-2Bg6iGKZ5CgSTgvpUoQw18UE6T6U-2BjjJssin7R59TEtDCn-2FMiIeD-2BKlj4KLAs-2BRiGPsUh0lcU5c6z7fY3hYQ5nImHdg-3D-3D). Saxo's John Hardy noted the bank was "jawboning credibility around the ability to continue hiking" but the market didn't buy it, so Aussie rates and the currency softened in the crosses ([Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjFSVFClNNSqG9-2FNPqtd6EHwCDElYHGop7gWuKuxl0svA6gfr0tUqivI1dQZJGCSKhehnWDP-2BGUP-2FMMfvB9DiDxEbJmnTr24j8GfLMoWyX6WQ-3D-3DkPjz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQScLTxyER5r3xViufWr4lWIsO-2BUDhOKibrHgfx7PCH-2B-2BIgcZsW7hiTyp2LzN-2FDAUzvLAl4FuS6jbgTkHo-2Bo0ggSYgsfkJ3ZUugyKdS7QDrWWapSy6kcWs0OA0Mx7d5Y6kQ-3D-3D)). And yet, NAB's Ray Attrill pointed out the Aussie was the *only* G10 currency higher against the dollar in the 24 hours after the hawkish hold, holding above 70 cents, because "the RBA still has the highest policy rate of any of the G10 countries" and low FX vol rewards carry ([NAB Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiQAQF1PWhNMMG2CgopVoCezh-2BRHhUWFGW93UK5C7sZWOt21s-2BENKmJlnM2DvnZ9u6dkoPAWmoWSQvYV2jVCzEY5YyWhyVbuomC3hdjfgt0SA-3D-3DQXeM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQelvEhCuh04NSvvnT1NtRIVKJ48uuf2w-2FghYfPF1miQikJ-2FqQoA48MAOb9Zsll0xSIXcBKTJwGMWQ3YYgLeP74a1KByFr95v1D675ptYrdZka6AKy5Qi3btWPWoTi1m4ug-3D-3D)). *Operator view.*

**The Scandis are both leaning hawkish.** JPM's Ineska Kristovova walked through the wrap on [At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhoGTERoDVC2sYD5WClBMNOHtkaxtuRv9kcziRUV-2BnckarS8Kk9qCbWgqrzgR07JsBpB6VvK2dYArCt-2BWlRg3OzdNmwpmb9DWQpbRB7vNIe0w-3D-3DOUDm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQQANSjiCckqic7SMQuXUgAEaYWXRdpS1z96dg3yJPwJeg0XfZRK4sKirHLjQ2pRPNncJzmqMDamR0YkIbqq0N-2Bc-2BTbNUy5bm8gbxl-2BJErhFDMJJ5pHIJ42UNRClwaxQPUA-3D-3D): Norges Bank held at 4.25% but nudged its rate path up 15-20bp on sticky inflation, with JPM penciling another hike in September and flagging "further pressure coming via the currency channel, especially against a hawkish Fed backdrop." The Riksbank held at 1.75% but adopted an explicit hiking bias (roughly even odds of a December move), even with core inflation near 0.5%, artificially low thanks to a VAT cut that reverses next year. *Operator view.*

> The cleanest expression of the week, from the JPM desk: "Bullish beta, bullish dollar." And short the loonie.

**JPM put a flag in it.** On its mid-year FX roundup ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgCnNdEzWfw3coxqHShFPsKjLj6NehZlfxgK-2BKnk6VQdomJYrCKbT-2BtBm1JmMh3OCdUJBFgI-2BimfyLkcj-2BmYLz8WI4jJgLGtmfb3zuUNfFVRQ-3D-3Djijp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQRLlMX8pKAuUOj4T0KZDJL8-2B3Kz1GoEf-2BBHIuaXaRirEbNqKjYo0fWOGMrPgyPK4zftDyfMqgSNO-2BQZBHO-2FJw3KMNBmYVSr4xxoHjdGxLocHsr9dfZN2dDZH-2BwUa0HBx8Q-3D-3D)), the team stayed long carry and long dollar (a ~3% base-case move on a 75bp Fed hiking cycle), and stayed outright bearish CAD, "weak domestic conditions, trade headwinds, and very importantly, low carry," with the terms-of-trade cushion "actively fading as Brent trades onto the 70 handle." On the flip side, they flagged the Aussie as the tightest developed-market expression of the AI-carry trade. *Operator view.*

## The Debate

On Canada specifically, the tape gave us a real two-sider.

**Bull (structural):** Fidelity's David Tulk told [FidelityConnects](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgOEjTkyJFm0m9Gwgh9dlxV7lJfd-2F5lriHO0SFAIrmdxJkb8R5xlew2SE1WAt2kdXl7CY53EgjlR9PtcHX2fNb5VP3Vh-2BYPQQks7ymlWI4vwA-3D-3Dji75_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQQG-2Bc0Zwy0fFHqMJO2kHmKWulEipMOmZEEDdzj-2B5MFBNmlYQ7EEjlaNyfxZWEeDXLXMvVxJnYTkiL25jUJhmrtzvP4m8-2BEeousqmAo6Z3imKxySrFyD0FI8i1auX5WPQSA-3D-3D) his team is overweight Canadian equities *and* the Canadian dollar "for the first time in more than a decade," a capital cycle kicked off by government energy-infrastructure policy, with the technical recession likely "shallow and short-lived" given a sharp export rebound. He even noted a sustained commodity terms-of-trade shock would bias the BoC toward *hiking*. *Operator view.*

**Bear (tactical):** the JPM desk above, low carry, tariff overhang, and an oil tape that just removed the one thing working in CAD's favour.

Note the timeframes don't actually collide: Tulk is buying a multi-year capital cycle; JPM is fading a currency with no carry into a soft-oil quarter. Both can be right.

What the tape did *not* give us this week: a single credible China-reflation voice. The closest China cue cut the other way, Goldman's Daan Struyven noted Chinese crude imports are down 4-5 million bpd year-on-year, "likely the single most important reason why oil prices are not in triple-digit territory" ([Exchanges](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiVZvQcekhXgQKcIedHoRpyyWaDslXlF-2BKRfUuBOKNfTxljD7EKiMZ8NmYho2NNZbUmb3WN1kt7w-2F8-2FhADiXLaxecGoyYJHhXr0uYndOzXfKg-3D-3DCyep_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQTriq8SJgHOPXXpV-2FM-2BjtZfcX7ioHEW11kv-2FuoW9pXNdZD-2BTubXvx6qyr9aUdQmwKOWwEBPPry3kZfjPLlNirj2PAINCfZX3j-2F3bz3aQpDmi-2Bu5SQetpbtvehC9vO1-2FcVA-3D-3D)). No one came on to argue the soft-dollar, China-up, everything-exporter-rips case. So we won't manufacture it.

## Trades in Play

The desks were unusually concrete, so this is worth flagging. The expressed view, JPM's, echoed by NAB's carry logic, is **long the high-carry beta (AUD), funded out of the low-carry petro-loonie (CAD)**, with a stronger dollar as the backdrop. It's a clean way to play the bloc split: metals-FX with the G10's top policy rate on one side, oil-FX with fading terms of trade on the other. Risk is obvious, a re-escalation in the Gulf snaps oil higher and the trade inverts overnight.

## Read-Throughs

- **Iron ore / BHP, RIO, Fortescue:** the demand cue is softening-but-not-collapsing. Oceanic Iron Ore CEO Chris Batalha argued China is "still" dominant but "less so," with the Middle East and India picking up slack, and that Simandou's 120mtpa is "simply replacing the current depletion" rather than flooding the market ([The David Lin Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiGM0KDOqiG9ht05sX2fZ0edLNC-2BxI0mPhNs9OX1Bp0soeE29J3-2FxcXLJwbr-2FMeYM-2FAZdn-2ButXWxgw7-2FX8JzHnOIPxe96TijAOlUU454QQPvA-3D-3DLsgB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQdJKCWELrKVyhDWgOe1Pomat4BTGEHUjTsliI4dYBFabTy5kqsSjhQIdDrRdO6-2BcuR5HRl1peHs6iXEnOIDuU-2F9vkk9jhYaVduLnmFXcjChhUV8UXB4wJ-2BfXpQxutt-2B5SA-3D-3D)). Worth a caveat: he's selling a high-purity project, so treat the green-steel scarcity pitch accordingly.
- **WTI / Brent and Canadian energy (CNQ, SU, ENB):** Goldman sees Brent ~$80 end-2026 and $75 in 2027, skewed upside ($130 if the Strait stays troubled, $60 if it fully reopens). Steno is the bear, sub-$70 by month-end on a 1.5-2mbpd surplus ([Macro Mondays](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiPoBbvuJeEZIhq1mC2FSOWBEy5FYF94Y4uEBivrjrTJ1EG1-2FAosGxvzEHzEykdC12nARJ5Axd1Kc5zcL973kUbFGrZtNb9NupKgiyRGV8VsA-3D-3DygXL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQa-2Fzp7CGbAAFlEurwFN5Wo2fPN0Ozk1RufRpAOS6GITWie3JEw-2B5zZhsPyNHZPwHkMjj0qkwJjpOvFsRykPPmAnRozepDe5l3FbScRgBhxVhCpbnNW8sTM3KXTYvMOzgCA-3D-3D)). Either way, Alberta is leaning *into* it: RBN's Mike Dunn laid out 180kbpd of new pipeline capacity by late 2027 and 600kbpd-plus of proposed oil-sands growth, Suncor included ([RBN Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj7T0TbOLGZRRqJBtJRxfQnEt7qk-2FIFrJJ1cUTuUJOoc9lxRDuHv2TbXM33bw9VIPlQp-2FKyIkY1GjUKSr6lWLZvtK6DfEsvaooAWfVK1nP-2Bfg-3D-3DgT_b_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQZ32ZgIdBVLooztNSjKIMb06IyqGHDw5TgsvjU0oMX52yCKJf-2FBiC-2FazCooXyLqMjguV0Mt5-2F89ysIPXmFUSyZY3Kvl7VLKwBU2GI7KXHzw2dvpo7L3W1EzdvzZgB06msA-3D-3D)). Volume up, price soft, the loonie sits on the wrong side of that for now.
- **Copper:** the standalone bull case of the week. Rick Rule on [The Grant Williams Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhkry14aY-2FDA0dSBBXxit-2F-2Ff8mAd5ATDppufZNxgLZrzfWTGxQ1evmaDMreq0ryuNMqLrO6QZnO-2Fi4WH5nQJ5lgG-2F7lj2iNPlEynMm-2FyI8VDw-3D-3DrCwI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUSFENf-2BGVRQ5uaTspBwk6edr-2F9IyyAnPUBBj4rOradQR4f8DzkHc3QyHnR2CCQO1E9gY8GwVezHXIqUk85XdeluVdH-2FeZNPDzv5dCty-2FWGrL1Vmj5kEYHRV-2FENkXxlYgMrPVaA6AsWAWYkzby-2BD7SW3wm9esAc86yVG43IKBhZDA-3D-3D): a structural deficit needing $250bn of real investment over a decade just to hold output flat, against demand growth of 1-3.5%. Long-fuse, but it's the cleanest "metals beat oil" argument on the tape.
- **The yuan as China proxy:** see above, imports down, not a reflation story this week.
- **MXN as fellow USMCA peso:** the JPM desk tagged Mexico (with ZAR, Hungary) as a top EM high-yielder and AI-carry beneficiary, constructive, but no dedicated Banxico voice surfaced.
- **Equinor, Swedish housing/banks, the NZD:** quiet. No substantive Equinor or Swedish-property episode this week, and no credible RBNZ/kiwi voice at all. Noting the silence rather than padding it.