# The Capital-Markets Reopening - Week of June 23, 2026: SpaceX's Record IPO Cracks the Window Open > Capital-markets, IPO, M&A and exchanges newsletter for the week of June 23, 2026. SpaceX's record $85.7B IPO listed on Nasdaq and cracked the equity window open for marquee names, but a hawkish Warsh Fed and a seizing private-credit engine mean the credit-funded sponsor cycle is still stuck. ## The Capital-Markets Reopening ### Week of June 23, 2026: SpaceX's Record IPO Cracks the Window Open --- ## TL;DR - **The window is open.** SpaceX printed the largest IPO in history, an $85.7 billion raise that listed on Nasdaq and ripped ~50% in two sessions, and the SEC chair is now openly cheerleading the pipeline behind it (OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed for the fall). Bullish for ECM-levered franchises (GS, MS) and the listing venue itself (NDAQ). - **But the Fed just leaned on the brake.** Kevin Warsh's first FOMC was hawkish: rates held at 3.50–3.75%, the dot plot now pencils in a *hike*, and markets are pricing ~69% odds of a September move. Higher-for-longer is sand in the gears of rate-sensitive M&A and leveraged finance. - **The plumbing is clogged.** New US direct-lending issuance nearly halved quarter-on-quarter and sponsor exits are "constipated." The financing engine that has to power any real deal rebound is sputtering, the single most important thing to watch for the boutiques and lev-fin desks. --- ## What's new Ranked by what's most actionable for a trading book. **1. SpaceX prints the biggest IPO ever, and it lands on Nasdaq.** On [Squawk Pod (June 16)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhe-2FKPbS4rWth4f2bvU-2B3nYWXUKkCH1vQ238fSe9InJQ-2BonDz9h7bCk11HvIBDeuNFpVJobGpaguVUmG0kcrCyp1Lx0Fro-2BWWku75kVEFKZSA-3D-3D3dM5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC64ve-2FRUhW-2B7Ghb9rCq7boStriRNZbtDG7-2FT7USCcf0Ii491LuoXrzwbqzu4GGj4ltyiRPsA0-2Fj620Cxxn9VTjdz3AEYuPEaDoAAq06JWqZP9WXJ8LTVS21RRY3n6PNChw-3D-3D), SEC Chairman **Paul Atkins** confirmed the $85.7B raise (after the green-shoe) and framed it as a deliberate policy win: "our whole drive here at the SEC… has been to make IPOs great again… the real story is the other ones that are in the pipeline." He noted the US now has "half the number of public companies as we had 30 years ago," the entire agenda is pulling companies out of private markets. *Why it moves numbers:* this is a live listings win for **NDAQ** and the strongest sentiment tailwind for ECM books in two years. **2. Warsh goes hawkish on day one.** On [Power Lunch (June 17)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgmUBGTEGtm1b15J9r6T2-2FGkwBJH3TPhVNB3-2FqKtZ6BrlZdKW5UaOOOMysCE96Rl0irx7WDlIUErxdH8eIAuApR6hQbvbtYVGjpBHcDOxbm7w-3D-3D_E4p_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC26ATt2AITNgyZJ-2BXjLuttFsGWJhJGh8NyVvInNQf3dKpB3P-2BNdLflCbi8ZyFKmehWIZB6qytX-2BAeK3pkaG0b2Mm39JZvpP62KqTGjLR90SSVXOyS1Sf3IJseiU1h3J02g-3D-3D), the desk walked through a Fed that held at 3.50–3.75% but raised inflation forecasts and saw nine officials pencil in a hike this year. By the next morning on [Squawk on the Street (June 18)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOig1LZKflpFPra3CZwWD236Pbau2ODjHn5VVPZtn3mCiW1w36-2Bv-2Bc1eCSQnSr-2FlPAcaPGlUd9L4DiNdADoQF-2BlH8Np-2FuysO92-2Fd6zb2GfgYLA-3D-3DFSOw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC5W9ch8X0LnJN1zA5-2BPknhwTk8R5OhHbOYVamjgZPXLuBbWKWI7lCWAlNHM-2BhkgiajApzVcBRaSjQhmEDrqOkpqa2UsolsjpIPdBxSfOddPd7tX3xE1AS-2FMeO6MFWn9Mrw-3D-3D), markets were pricing 69% odds of a September hike. *Why it matters:* every sponsor LBO model and refi just got more expensive. This is the central tension of the whole thesis. **3. An operator says the issuance machine is still running.** On [Bloomberg Surveillance (June 17)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhd7wILN-2BlV57Xt3oPz-2FzdkxdVGXg45Xua8sav9t7KFXjcYR-2FXeFUWXbIni47RzCDWIOLmspZ6aNqPN7lNVhNA21ZVVtK7fyfKWpIDd0xa67Q-3D-3Dl-Fs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUCx5OSqGwxtDKIhpcw3d2VaHhJK8HdJ8-2F00VHEHP-2FA9fOW913-2BZu0ZrBb3XspWf0Qg-2Bbz-2FIwizwKngkBng2BI79jrNwZX7mrZw5elPkn5f4ldqL8HrQl4qY4HBaHpoP-2BngA-3D-3D), a veteran **Morgan Stanley** strategist made the bull case plainly: "the reason why I feel confident it's not at the end of the road yet is because the capital markets are still funding this and the companies are being rewarded for it." His one tell to watch: credit spreads. *Why it matters:* this is insider color that the equity and credit new-issue bid is intact, directly supportive of GS/MS underwriting fees. **4. The private-credit engine is losing speed.** Pundit warning, but a specific one: on [Eurodollar University (June 18)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiay5MEeRie5qdFT0tbcs8UkGq8zF4m3MHXH9TSF5ua456xoIbTrifsAQcv6l4U5H9RpieKA6Ctax6cbNWMnCHYP7-2FBH-2BBNGkdQYYPXbwrRkw-3D-3DlG-8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUCwbYTSCu7vzqRRrzrs9X5G-2BBCKhxhvpz4usNtJF9Q-2FzM-2Bkqe8SJIFDIwee84OCetRo2Qb5dBCgMSDeB9r3uPeN9XG6kRWqzWKjrtU-2FfuZ7SEH-2BhvvMh6C-2F3RyJG27MAJIQ-3D-3D), the host cited PitchBook/Reuters data showing new US direct-lending issuance fell from ~$74.6B in Q1 to ~$44.8B in the three months ended May, with LBO-tied direct lending down to ~$15.2B. The result is sponsor "constipation," portfolio companies that can't be sold or refinanced, weak distributions, and a self-reinforcing slowdown. *Why it matters:* if the debt doesn't clear, the advisory pull-through doesn't happen. This is the bear thesis in one chart. **5. The deal tape is genuinely busy.** [Bloomberg Daybreak (June 19)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjUeveanRcXRcNJbpnc2Lu4ipzo5xnxGR1yX2vpK6us5WHUTR9p9FvN5ramtXUuPOGy7cyJ4C0LhkVGrUnAUR4D4T2QPCMlZ86oMivGo-2FNZKQ-3D-3DBwDM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC7bXwhPFpk6wEoULbFVuDe96v8vMjv0oKYxiMXSBnB68517ZiuAiEvCiuDcbO-2FJeocPhVO3utMCnAuVsGcpWntz-2BhelXtkJOXnItILBDKPcd2uwFqxM3uGwN0NRbJJK08Q-3D-3D) reported the DOJ cleared the ~$110B Paramount-Skydance / Warner Bros. Discovery tie-up on June 16, with UK (July 7) and EU (Aug 7) decisions still pending and states circling. [Bloomberg Intelligence (June 22)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYmhYxoxeYZM1xea4BLpipVPaes9zuWZ2sAY74fYQd-2FerRGQ5FgZGFLGpHMajeh-2Fx8-2FSvHFx-2FndTNoPsC-2BZ76G0gWX7vCA2EGDUMebpUxKbQ-3D-3DdLRv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUCxEg5Pj7dQWv35b1f3cURxFahTucMKfdv7H348aPPt7J3VGOuNw9yMbptdawudjdOgp5wXVRZLpzz56gsC-2FIlHEfZLdxrFzeM6GLoMjJGOtPKtrwf0U9EKJGFElIteRY5g-3D-3D) added AbbVie's $10.9B cash buy of Apogee and CRH's "largest deal in its history" for Arcosa. *Why it matters:* a fee pool that size, clearing antitrust, is the announced-backlog story the bulls need. --- ## The debate **Durable, multi-year reopening.** The strongest mega-cap private companies are choosing to go public again, the regulator is actively removing friction, and an operator at Morgan Stanley says the new-issue bid, equity and credit, is alive and being rewarded. Announced M&A is large and clearing regulators. That is the shape of a real cycle turn, not a one-off. **Fragile head-fake.** Look past the SpaceX confetti and the picture darkens. SpaceX is one idiosyncratic, 4%-float listing that "made" the league tables; it is not a broad small-cap IPO calendar. Warsh just took rate cuts off the table and put hikes on it. And the financing plumbing for the leveraged deal economy is visibly seizing, issuance down by a third-plus, exits frozen. [James Grant on WEALTHTRACK (June 19)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhB6r0PCHHHz5sJzn7py4hc2yLCGNC3u09klblq8OBGCR9fVZP1L28cq6Wejwi-2FgQ0grr08bSiB-2Bferfv03AsR6LUtWQFhA77Be-2BrjtzBfedg-3D-3DF2hU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC4r6znNICNpaHUtrPTWglsDF-2B-2F5a7X8BLascpEYRZkp51GPbFe8GWXiSMya4f4Lb1jYVKUzoUTmBOPBlnff72BvjjBYDt67iicAq9lnGUVdqQeyl3e0wo0TZc8c-2FIWYi0w-3D-3D) went further, warning that life insurers hold ~$1.8T of private credit on deteriorating covenants, a credit bear market in the making. A reopening that runs on cheap leverage doesn't survive a hawkish Fed. My read: the *equity* window is genuinely open for marquee names; the *credit-funded sponsor* engine is not. That split favors equity-underwriting and elite advisory over volume lev-fin. --- ## Stocks in play *Note: this week's podcast tape was dominated by the SpaceX IPO and the Fed; firm-specific operator commentary on the names below was thin. Catalysts flagged are the upcoming Q2 2026 prints (mid/late July).* - **Goldman Sachs (GS).** *Bull:* prime beneficiary of the equity window reopening and the large strategic M&A clearing regulators. *Bear:* a leveraged-finance and sponsor slowdown ([Eurodollar University](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiay5MEeRie5qdFT0tbcs8UkGq8zF4m3MHXH9TSF5ua456xoIbTrifsAQcv6l4U5H9RpieKA6Ctax6cbNWMnCHYP7-2FBH-2BBNGkdQYYPXbwrRkw-3D-3DwUa4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC2xDQwkc2-2Fjy4LMyhhrov8c3roOo-2BK47hpsi-2Bg35MdhOzFj11qni3NReabnwQomxOFPqwD1vRjRyFat96NWWw5TIS5BkKYWtgoBlwPV1j72rxTYAHQT9BZ0-2BAt-2FckwqB6g-3D-3D)) hits exactly where GS is levered. *Catalyst:* Q2 IB revenue and backlog commentary on the July call. - **Morgan Stanley (MS).** *Bull:* an MS strategist publicly says capital markets are still funding deals ([Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhd7wILN-2BlV57Xt3oPz-2FzdkxdVGXg45Xua8sav9t7KFXjcYR-2FXeFUWXbIni47RzCDWIOLmspZ6aNqPN7lNVhNA21ZVVtK7fyfKWpIDd0xa67Q-3D-3DSuNr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUCwkE-2BXOPmFmKTO20slMCAodpPpFi7gBFzWD2nqULgOYmsGGdi-2BLccZbaaXBaQi3vZURMt8goP89MYeQbvGPqel4VHahJHRibVNvU4q7SWDOyyTY2j5XTGoflO5G7l58jyg-3D-3D)); the ~$20T wealth franchise highlighted on [The Compound (June 19)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg5t6RVV7RK-2Bwmw3sW5XIouktCGiREteIUC88VmP5sfuy7WlieP9DHh53VyvQWsJ-2Bd2VCQDxKelenMZVrOUnp2CfRH5j4nzv6KwcTussc6m0g-3D-3DoJMR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC0zhPoy3D-2BMrSrgFGQkM5nY9lQA0YVuljn1S4N4ThqORJtgttRphYsc-2F2tQZcKQeXMblbe7jr2eLx0DAAWP4kfCnTRZghaez4994Yk9TVFMilfGmFAVW92TQQlESFTyeoQ-3D-3D) is a ballast versus banking cyclicality. *Bear:* rate-driven trading swings; hawkish Fed. *Catalyst:* Q2 wealth net-new-asset flows and markets revenue. - **Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).** *Bull:* higher-for-longer and dollar volatility are tailwinds for rates/FX futures and data. *Bear:* mortgage-data segment exposed to a frozen housing market under a hawkish Fed. *Catalyst:* Q2 transaction vs. recurring-data mix. (No direct ICE podcast coverage this week, a genuine gap, not a signal.) - **Nasdaq (NDAQ).** *Bull:* it just won the highest-profile listing on earth, and the IPO pipeline behind it is filling, directly accretive to listings and index/data. *Bear:* governance noise over thin-float index inclusion ([Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhd7wILN-2BlV57Xt3oPz-2FzdkxdVGXg45Xua8sav9t7KFXjcYR-2FXeFUWXbIni47RzCDWIOLmspZ6aNqPN7lNVhNA21ZVVtK7fyfKWpIDd0xa67Q-3D-3DEZzq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC2RpgLP8WG8jmeVtBROlVov2bKScQ-2Bcj1BTFv4-2B-2Fl73c9RNEEAeYVhlcU-2F6NdhakhEVS-2BYbTKg3RoB4LMuTBXiAKlVs3ANGi8sUOH6XhIMZ41-2B-2BboSEPsvic6OytIqdfRw-3D-3D) flagged Nasdaq "caved" while the S&P held firm) could invite scrutiny. *Catalyst:* whether OpenAI/Anthropic choose Nasdaq this fall. - **Evercore (EVR).** *Bull:* large strategic M&A clearing antitrust is the bread-and-butter advisory cycle. *Bear:* if sponsor activity stays frozen, advisory volume is capped. *Catalyst:* Q2 advisory backlog. (The only EVR podcast hit was its analysts discussing the consumer on [The Real Eisman Playbook](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgcwLMYYWL0CRVGgE-2FROZGBi7ojzcfCbyLccZGP5wQX8bduLmJrDbL-2Bbtlfv8mw5U86znZL4LnZzZlGwPlNol1eV7o6Nv4PwEoT9fQAHa1b9Q-3D-3DjIF-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC3706B98dgusMI5Tgmec6GIUABjfR4oAI4VaAu8tOpcxzCDZu3aF8lL9Pcd9pGrNA7aMMt72k7gWtqHyZLoupiKVNsgIO74cNTX0CFLan0uTncECU0OW6O5PKkcPyb-2Fniw-3D-3D), not IB.) - **Moelis (MC).** *Bull:* restructuring/liability-management upside if the private-credit "constipation" turns into distress. *Bear:* pure-play advisory with no trading ballast; most exposed to a deal-volume air pocket. *Catalyst:* Q2 MD productivity and restructuring mix. (No MC-specific coverage this week.) - **Jefferies (JEF).** *Bull:* leveraged finance + advisory leverage to a true reopening, plus an early-reporting read on the group. *Bear:* most directly in the path of the lev-fin issuance slowdown. *Catalyst:* JEF's off-cycle quarter is the sector's first tell, watch it closely. (No JEF-specific coverage this week.) --- ## Read-throughs - **Boutique advisors (EVR/MC/JEF):** the announced-deal tape is supportive, but the [private-credit slowdown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiay5MEeRie5qdFT0tbcs8UkGq8zF4m3MHXH9TSF5ua456xoIbTrifsAQcv6l4U5H9RpieKA6Ctax6cbNWMnCHYP7-2FBH-2BBNGkdQYYPXbwrRkw-3D-3Dc1Ac_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC9QNSrjkcCwYGPmUOU1VgOjdAaGN9ROYBTeKeM0KszDbBTnCDXI2eRzghbFpIwO-2FiqBvMdoHbN186-2BJkt5DkUBw1tFxnLXcCf8HiN5mg9IQEWTQ9Ev-2BYHLBnZj2-2B8hZCaQ-3D-3D) caps the sponsor-driven half of the fee pool. Favor advisors levered to large strategic deals over sponsor M&A. - **Leveraged finance & private credit:** issuance down by roughly a third quarter-on-quarter, with BDC and semi-liquid-fund stress building (~$600B in semi-liquid vehicles). Headwind for lev-fin desks; potential tailwind for restructuring. - **PE sponsors monetizing exits:** the exit market is frozen, weak distributions feed a denominator effect that slows new fundraising. Healthcare PE is a relative bright spot ([Becker, June 19](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjlhDvxSOFUCnZsYJhrSs0bMoac8LUEPBaovixAdafNeUSWUlWRIkgKXR4k5bSlqiAKHMg5QEfx1OEwlQmBBcnvy9lCMQzhjg6WZqjEMu196g-3D-3DCM9j_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUC1eZQScx9FW3v3IfJ6pgSKkeUr9eKiPx936OnyVVANFgNb8Jot-2FAojJCzkbovkZ3ymhiVLonDD-2Bts62bOOeov-2FIZHJNawufKJliCOQk9yChCEZsBpoJcw5V-2F2BL-2F4YYRtg-3D-3D)), but selectively. - **Exchange listings/data:** SpaceX is a clean win for Nasdaq; the bigger prize is whether the AI mega-caps follow this fall. DCM stayed open at the top of the stack, [Nvidia priced a $25B bond](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiStRiUA6Goc-2BaqWwTbRKi8blxck-2BIvOJv1AhFzn6iwgEmEOmsczGiMqKTFmHj1Lt5sfEO9UUbnhSZ009BsKnGgmQzX8sePGmw-2FivivOQ-2FKiQ-3D-3DB6an_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVb9W98P0oegO0xsGiXxj7-2BQJePxwyXpbs-2FY-2Fj4-2FczUCyf1tZ0Ng5E-2BXdEUaQi1Ri5A4hUHI3QMSrILG9bxdeX4Q-2B7MjTAgrBZgEpdhlLagws03z6zrT-2Fve-2F5RcvKl0vySxWZn6kxObtS7X5WELLOGBrjPIcMOkoh0ynrs7L6-2FMYw-3D-3D) the same week. --- ## What changed vs. last week This is the first edition of *The Capital-Markets Reopening*, there is no prior week to compare against. Baseline set: the equity-issuance window is open for marquee names, the Fed turned hawkish under Warsh, and the credit-funded sponsor engine is slowing. We'll track all three from here.