Newsletter · · Ashutosh Agarwal

The AI Capex Tracker - Week of June 24, 2026: Chips Crack Worldwide, Micron's the Verdict Tonight

AI capex newsletter for the week of June 24, 2026. The correlated unwind the bears kept threatening finally hit (Kospi -10%, Korean memory -12%, US chips in sympathy), SK Hynix reportedly throttled HBM, and Micron's after-the-close print is the single number that resolves the tape.

The AI Capex Tracker

Week of June 24, 2026: Chips Crack Worldwide, Micron's the Verdict Tonight

Issue: Wednesday, June 24, 2026

TL;DR

  • The correlated unwind the bears kept threatening finally hit. The Kospi fell ~10% overnight, its biggest drop in three months, with SK Hynix and Samsung down 12% and the US chip complex tumbling in sympathy, one day after SK Hynix overtook Samsung as Korea's most valuable stock (a title held since 2000) and on record Korean margin debt of 38.5 trillion won ($25B). (Squawk on the Street, Jun 23; Saxo Market Call, Jun 23)
  • Micron reports tonight, after the close, the single print that resolves the tape. Up ~1,000% in twelve months on 3.5–4x revenue and 10x+ earnings growth, it sits ~161% above its 200-day average. Even a clean beat can sell off on the guide. (Saxo Market Call, Jun 23; The Compound and Friends, Jun 23)
  • First real supply-side crack: SK Hynix is reportedly throttling HBM output and pivoting toward DRAM, the first time the demand-plateau narrative has a producer action behind it, even as Faber notes no hyperscaler has actually cut capex. (Squawk on the Street, Jun 23)

What's new

Yesterday the AI complex finally did what Danny Moses warned it would last week: it all traded down together. No clean trigger, just event risk into Micron and a sentiment that flipped on a dime.

1. The global sell-off arrived, and it started in Korean memory. Squawk on the Street, Jun 23: Faber, Eisen, Quintanilla (CNBC desk). Kospi -10%, SK Hynix and Samsung ~12%, on record margin debt that forces liquidations when the tape turns. What's different now, per Eisen: scrutiny "around the free cash flow, or the lack thereof," CTO pushback on rising token prices, and "cheaper Chinese models." Faber's anchor: he has "yet to see" a single hyperscaler cut capex, Oracle's report talks only about trimming workforce to fund a budget that will "far exceed the $55 billion they spent last year."

"I think we will sit here, as we have already for years, and continue to question whether or not there will ever be a return on all the invested capital." (David Faber)

2. Micron is tonight's binary, and the setup is loaded both ways. Saxo Market Call, Jun 23: John J. Hardy (Saxo strategist). Micron has put up 3.5–4x revenue and 10x+ earnings growth versus a year ago, driving a ~1,000% advance. His read into tonight: "almost no matter what Micron reports, even if it reports results beyond what is expected, things could go wrong on the guidance." The Compound and Friends, Jun 23 frames the air pocket: ~161% above its 200-day line, Micron "could fall 30% in a straight line" and still be in a healthy uptrend, it did exactly that after March (≈$460→$310) before ripping back. Trade the guide, not the headline.

3. SK Hynix throttling HBM is the first producer-side digestion signal. Squawk on the Street, Jun 23. A local report flagged SK Hynix "adjusting the pace of production for its high bandwidth memory… stepping up efforts in DRAM instead," read as a possible profitability or demand-plateau tell. It's thin (single-sourced, and the desk cautioned against over-reading it), but it's the first time the bear narrative has a supplier doing something, not just a strategist talking.

4. The depreciation bomb got a number, and a vendor-financing diagram. FinPod, "The Finance of the AI Buildout," Jun 23, a finance explainer summarizing the Burry/Chanos short case (not new operator disclosure). GPUs have a real economic life of ~2–3 years but are depreciated over 5–6, which Burry's math says overstates industry profit by ~$176B across 2026–2028. The corroborating tell: Amazon shortened some server lives from 6 to 5 years (a $700M hit to 2025 operating income) while Meta extended its estimate, same hardware, opposite calls. And the "Stargate web" (NVDA up to $100B into OpenAI, then OpenAI's ~$300B with Oracle, then Oracle buying NVDA chips) is "vendor financing" that "masks the true level of end-user adoption."

5. Virginia's energy chief calls the load forecasts "fantasy." Energy Capital Podcast, Jun 24: Joshua Rhodes, Chief Energy Officer of Virginia (policymaker/insider). Dominion alone projects 70 GW of new large load against a 24 GW system peak, an independent market monitor "called the numbers fantasy," and Rhodes "largely agree[s]." The mechanism is "phantom load": developers bid the same project across jurisdictions, and utilities feed PJM unvetted forecasts with no dedup check. ERCOT faces the same, ~445 GW of requests on an ~85.5 GW system. The buildable number is a fraction of the headline.

The debate

Bull steel-man: nothing fundamental broke; this is a positioning flush. No hyperscaler has cut capex; Oracle is raising spend past last year's $55B and trimming only headcount to fund it; demand is still "locked in." The selling is mechanical, record Korean margin debt forcing liquidations in the year's most crowded trade, plus de-risking into Micron. (Squawk on the Street, Jun 23)

Bear steel-man: late-cycle, correlated, and now with three fresh cracks. Free cash flow is compressing across the Mag 7, pushing the group from buybacks toward equity and debt issuance, "dilution at its highest level," with Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta all "very clearly in a downtrend" (The Paul Barron Crypto Show, Jun 23). George Noble calls the buildout "the biggest malinvestment in the history of the world, which makes dot-com look like child's play," with DeepSeek doing "90% of what you need… for 90% less" (Soar Financially, Jun 23). Grantham frames it as the railroad pattern, the Mag 7 plus ~15 challengers in a "vicious fight to the death" where "they do not make lots of money, and the stocks get crushed" (MoneyWeek Talks, Jun 24). Add Burry's $176B depreciation overstatement and the Stargate loop (FinPod, Jun 23).

Sell signals to watch: a sold-out Micron that only meets tonight; the SK Hynix HBM throttle confirmed by a second source; any "matching demand" or 2-year capex trim at July earnings; more equity/debt raises (Amazon flagged as "next to go" in debt markets); private-credit stress (Apollo just curbed withdrawals in a retail credit fund after exit requests hit ~17%).

Stocks in play

NVDA. Bull: no hyperscaler has cut orders; Supermicro jumped ~16% on Vera Rubin rack systems (up to 1 GW, ~10x tokens-per-watt), a forward Rubin pull (Saxo Market Call, Jun 23). Bear: caught in the correlated rout, with the SK Hynix HBM throttle and DeepSeek/discount-model threat aimed at premium-GPU demand, plus the $100B→OpenAI→Oracle→NVDA vendor-financing loop (FinPod, Jun 23). Next: Rubin ramp; Q2 print.

AVGO. Quiet on the tape, no fresh operator color this cycle. Last issue's read stands: June weakness was a failure to raise 2027 guidance, not a cut. Next: custom-silicon prints; any 2027 guide raise.

AMD. Quiet on the tape, no MI450X/Helios signal. Next: AMD Advancing AI Day, July 2026.

MSFT. Bull: still the most aggressive builder on the power side (last week's 20-year, 2.67 GW Chevron gas deal). Bear: the cleanest demand-discipline tell, reportedly now weighing access to the ultra-cheap Chinese model DeepSeek on its platform and has unveiled "a fleet of its own discount AI models" (Squawk on the Street, Jun 23). Next: FY26 Q4 capex commentary at July earnings.

GOOGL. Bull: spend intentions unchanged; off-grid gas campuses still filing. Bear: worst Mag 7 name on the tape, multi-day drawdown, the loss of a Nobel-laureate AI researcher, a Gemini cadence lagging Anthropic/OpenAI, and the $85B equity-and-converts overhang; charts "bear flagging" (The Paul Barron Crypto Show, Jun 23; Squawk on the Street, Jun 23). Next: July capex guide.

AMZN. Bull: no capex cut; off-grid gas build continues. Bear: sitting right on its 200-day average and flagged as the "next to go" tapping debt markets (Saxo Market Call, Jun 23; Squawk on the Street, Jun 23). Next: July earnings.

META. Bull: still building (Hyperion/gas fleet). Bear: the Blue Owl structure, Meta keeps only ~20% equity in its own ~$30B flagship data center, pushing 80% of the cost and debt off balance sheet, is risk-transfer that works only if demand holds (FinPod, Jun 23). Next: July earnings.

Read-throughs

  • Memory / HBM (MU tonight), the most actionable print on the tape. Trade the gross-margin guide, not the headline: ~161% above the 200-day, a name that "could fall 30%" and stay in an uptrend, with double/triple-ordering risk and a possible SK Hynix supply throttle underneath. Market Mondays' frame: SK Hynix sold out for 2026, Micron EPS ~$21 this quarter vs ~$1.47 a year ago, guidance creeping to $30–40 (Market Mondays, Jun 23; The Compound and Friends, Jun 23). A correlated unwind hits Samsung and SK Hynix first.
  • Power / thermal (VRT, ETN, GEV), underwrite buildable MW, not queue MW. The phantom-load reveal is the new wrinkle: Dominion's 70 GW vs a 24 GW peak is "fantasy," ERCOT's ~445 GW sits on an ~85.5 GW system, and PJM is openly shifting "from managing surplus to managing scarcity." The 4-to-7-year interconnection queue still pushes hyperscalers to behind-the-meter gas, but the gap between headline demand and contracted, vetted demand is widening, and that's the number that should size turbine-OEM exposure. (Energy Capital Podcast, Jun 24)
  • Financing plumbing, watch it before the equities. Apollo curbed withdrawals in a retail private-credit fund after ~17% exit requests; CoreWeave's debt stack is ~$21.6B and the neocloud sector holds $20B+ in GPU-backed loans whose collateral can "evaporate" if Burry's 2–3-year GPU life is right. Stress shows here first. (Squawk on the Street, Jun 23; FinPod, Jun 23)
  • Optics / networking: quiet on the tape this cycle, no fresh names beyond last week's Arista/Amphenol pitch.

What changed vs last issue

Last issue (Jun 23, "Microsoft flirts with DeepSeek. Micron's the tape Wednesday.") was a setup note: DeepSeek as a demand crack, Microsoft building flat-out, Micron looming. In 24 hours, the setup became the event:

  • The correlated unwind Moses warned about actually happened. Kospi -10%, Korean memory -12%, US chips tumbling. The "they're all correlated" risk converted from thesis to tape.
  • The DeepSeek thread escalated from "weighing" to "offering." Microsoft is now reportedly preparing to offer DeepSeek on its platform and has unveiled its own fleet of discount models, the commoditization signal sharpened.
  • First supplier action: SK Hynix reportedly throttling HBM toward DRAM, the demand-plateau story finally has a producer behind it (still single-sourced).
  • The depreciation debate got quantified: Burry's ~$176B 2026–28 profit overstatement and the Stargate vendor-financing loop replaced last week's vaguer "FCF mirage."
  • Micron went from "tomorrow" to tonight, the binary resolves after today's close.

No update on the ERCOT/SB6 July 15 gating deadline, but the phantom-load reveal reframes every headline GW number ahead of it.