# Micron Jumps 15 Percent and Apple Raises Device Prices on the Memory Shortage - The AI Capex Tracker - Week of June 26, 2026

> AI capex newsletter for the week of June 26, 2026. Micron's verdict-day +15% executed the recipients-over-spenders rotation in a single session, while Apple's $100 to $300 device price hikes turned the memory crunch into a consumer tax and SK Hynix set a July 10 ~$30B Nasdaq listing.

## The AI Capex Tracker

### Week of June 26, 2026: Micron Jumps 15 Percent and Apple Raises Device Prices on the Memory Shortage

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**Issue: Friday, June 26, 2026**

**TL;DR**

- **Yesterday's "buy the recipients" call paid off in one session.** Micron closed **+15%**, best day in a month, pulling SanDisk +22% and the wafer-fab names (LAM, Applied, KLA all +7%+) up, while the MAG7 became the funding source and shed roughly an ExxonMobil of cap on the day. The rotation is now the tape, not a thesis. ([Closing Bell, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjNvN-2BNl-2BlvjMiPyXJ86OmiYJbNfsEcoHgfyUO40v8Fdpk2x5xT-2BpkROQIEDwIOjC3QiORJU1Z8Ilh4Brgh-2BOSkdri4Gf5zH6yDmB9MEwHWXw-3D-3DDb_T_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWnwO2-2FgS1UR8KyEeGuzWp17FQ0HUANYTPU-2FZC8zXQTRuPPtrHTG9XyUTr9TK9mP4IGma-2FD4S81tJnsM0IsJOM3fhTVN1es7UPPoYulRI9NQcYzSM3ReukFWiCLdy2KWZyA-3D-3D))
- **The memory crunch reached the consumer.** Apple raised Mac/iPad prices **$100 to $300** (its first pass-through of AI memory costs) and fell ~5%, worst session since April last year. Memory is up **4x in three quarters**; the Street now models an **iPhone 18 Pro ~$280 higher** in September. Third wave of inflation. ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgIjJqIjPoPkGsWTXJa3-2FhUGd0ZO6k0FozC5jLk0Xk-2BM56R0FmAOERqWwvg2LIw9XaSmqIpeoaUeZF6or5XOqvsEcTrqD81rvwa5HjXc-2FIlQQ-3D-3DwxNU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWr3PoidpNhZ0c9gKZFirAIIFPwblwHY-2B-2FU7FjfZB742rjK6UTHgee6AkwlYcdRsF73IBRL1-2FW-2B1chFRo9KxkUk-2FazQzieBgphIV9KkWmLPbNB8qdXs4il9hX-2FU9BFrVnVw-3D-3D))
- **SK Hynix set the date: July 10 on the Nasdaq, raising ~$30B**, potentially the largest US listing/ADR ever, and the next test of whether there's enough capital to feed the memory complex without draining Micron and Seagate. ([Squawk Box Europe Express, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjYv6Zyph7ABCNiUlP-2FTZ7w0EYCinjj5nkW-2BWL70PYr7P2F8fng2mOD1a5OPZXllahJz8FJAVCAI-2B3SWO-2Fe2-2BKlH5Ki9-2B9WppDPMgxAFTQbpQ-3D-3DBGoe_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWk-2BAF1b8kCd14zOBgeZRs1ldewO5XOHeBjE7vcWiWJnnpmO9yxCaZDC3Ugz-2F3wwJ3QlI6HSoMG3e119Rtk7DBvaK6qlbaC6Q2Afv2Z6b16m33xxZaQBHnjwJ2kfAbyPWxQ-3D-3D))

**What's new**

Yesterday I said own the recipients, not the spenders. Thursday proved it, hard.

**1. Micron's verdict day: +15%, and the cycle bit changed.** [Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5XDbufSIvwALEzBcBMmdI7P5nPY7s1O3ZZoz5PsQMp4q2ukCZ9MvUHbA-2FdCnviuc8EmzUf-2BskDpgbS9TVmuFGHw4PrN-2BBi-2B-2BMRNhSt0UeQQ-3D-3Dw-OU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWpHJk0armOW8cAJU6jOOiGHWjIi1eftI5LRsHcQzi-2B13aNs0b7EviiVyUjhJHGxlaq2t0mBLLV75f8H-2Bk2OFLoB6E0IyJVFbpWAbqM3uhCzINN9ZMBOdQzQbInh63Cof7Q-3D-3D), Santoli & Partsinevelos (CNBC). Net income doubled QoQ, **84.9% gross margin** ("better than even NVIDIA's at their top"), **$18B free cash flow**; Citi went to $1,400, D.A. Davidson to $2,000. The structural tell: **16 strategic customer agreements, 14 locking ~$100B of minimum guaranteed revenue through 2030**, with a price floor holding margin above today's peak through 2029 ([Squawk Pod, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4spNQ1rSWDUIIgcQIkUtDK9Lb8-2F3648iMcPWzxhAvnAOZlN1XipQdn2DJ7-2BhqSPCRbvtFj-2BBZ7dAdVdqEyL4tQeerkNJeNF5N5gleJVDnbA-3D-3DnjfQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWgWkwgmkEZKrP5ubMIdW9RX6IjrudrNgfNsK13Gxb8xCoHsWByuTTHwKoIvBOMRIXqhZc5WNV0tU6jCS-2FkStkDPpC6fh1Sassi-2FeDsa7LlOg17h7L5av2Nt38OYYb-2FpRIA-3D-3D)). Santoli's caveat: *"normally capitalism doesn't say you guys get 85% margins indefinitely."*

**2. The contracts are take-or-pay, a first for memory.** [Squawk Box Europe Express, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjYv6Zyph7ABCNiUlP-2FTZ7w0EYCinjj5nkW-2BWL70PYr7P2F8fng2mOD1a5OPZXllahJz8FJAVCAI-2B3SWO-2Fe2-2BKlH5Ki9-2B9WppDPMgxAFTQbpQ-3D-3DxVxF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWmREz0CibexfdYGyByWc8CYpETFbTnsAu0wqzAInq-2FmNEajaVTomHzd6-2FQuvE3IDjjtu-2FvizsfS1xLT3-2BRJzI2rFrUEXvmQBLD80bUTtRd5hq8UHJY4VOUjTx0NKn00g3w-3D-3D), Sedgwick (CNBC Int'l).

> "The company has inked five-year term take-or-pay agreements… the industry hasn't done this before."

Customers are on the hook even if demand changes, they pay to take delivery, not Micron. That's what breaks the boom-bust frame. Revenue guide: **~$50B this period, up from $11B a year ago**, with no line of sight to supply catching demand even as it improves "gradually in 2028."

**3. Apple blinks, memory becomes a tax on devices.** [Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgIjJqIjPoPkGsWTXJa3-2FhUGd0ZO6k0FozC5jLk0Xk-2BM56R0FmAOERqWwvg2LIw9XaSmqIpeoaUeZF6or5XOqvsEcTrqD81rvwa5HjXc-2FIlQQ-3D-3DyiDT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWgY-2BTa8xpBehcRIY3YeTZGoJqRAYEcj-2BVVBarYjynCxxoTARJ5ZeeephYFDsBWEIhD8jwik9sPwrDhnbeF3g2qYpMKhOvmzsgM7xWd2Ma7GeSgcgm87RIUCxvdTKLhe2iA-3D-3D), Sigalos (CNBC). Apple raised Mac/iPad prices $100 to $300 (even the new MacBook Neo), said it "held out as long as it could." With memory up 4x and Apple's margin near 50%, there's only so much it can eat. Microsoft hiked Xbox; Dell and HPE are in the same squeeze. Mac/iPad are ~14% of revenue, Apple is testing pricing power *before* the iPhone, where the 18 Pro is modeled +$280. Deutsche Bank: "a tax on devices."

**4. The bear got specific: an earnings bubble, not a valuation bubble.** [NAB Morning Call, Jun 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgHlDxSdVM46-2B146o8HdsPS0GE-2FaTEtvzyGAarcdTliMh7CAL3r45NNLA7Ky4D3taxDZpGh-2F1vfBzGawnaCf6RlYIBNDzaoFCksGa6rMqLYVw-3D-3Db54Y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWu2V9G24BiQyeM6D-2FUscooKe5EbQT3UNmZ-2Fzfczq-2BJza5c0ws9EKYTI89XgGrfiXKHDOj4KZSjrWiEd4sIp2UExHOk-2BVxeIGZpAkX7BkoG4lDEYTrGIsktSEA-2B55j6hHAQ-3D-3D), Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist, BCA Research. Hyperscalers reach **~$2.5T of AI assets by 2030; at ~20% depreciation that's ~$500B/yr, more than their combined earnings last year.** And the profit is partly accounting: "When NVIDIA sells a chip, it books a profit… If Meta or Microsoft buys it, it's not an expense, it's CapEx. No new cash is created, but profits still go up." His call: data centers end up like railroads, transformative, but the funders lose money, and "a lot of these stocks are going to be down 70%, 80%, 90%." Timing: "seventh or eighth inning."

**5. Power's real problem isn't megawatts, it's milliseconds.** [The QTS Experience, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjZJNGPlTF8uqO3jt-2BXI6pSFralWB2Te8rnpo6yh08zVDbOu5kBVRpFLriefJDDe9KzvbKHdjry3qSWsTTTbewOYFzbQMbsovBJMRDc1BloYQ-3D-3DTb0c_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWiNrRAdGXaZbc-2FpDS-2BYyiPWa-2FifhrSVVk8mXeGV-2BWmQbHTcJiuNjg9QrP-2F-2Bzs8kkUa1S5V0JiaFxTSwNc1newcqeVN7E-2B1tg0Vb1bO2KjSYaAiHEshmQZfHGC5osTP9yUg-3D-3D), Luke Saladyga, CTO Volta Grid (ex-Oracle nuclear lead). AI workloads create **millisecond load transients**, and "the only thing worse than a gas turbine at dealing with transients is a nuclear reactor with a steam generator." Nuclear fixes baseload, not the swings, forcing behind-the-meter generation *plus* batteries/UPS. Site selection has flipped from "geography and utility" to "generation source and ability to handle transients."

**The debate**

**Bull, recipients are printing, and demand is contracted.** Micron beat into a +15% day, signed first-ever take-or-pay five-year deals, locked ~$100B through 2030, pushed the shortage past 2027, all while throwing off $18B quarterly FCF. Hock Tan's "insatiable demand… not a bubble" was reprised across desks. The picks-and-shovels names are where the earnings actually show up. ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5XDbufSIvwALEzBcBMmdI7P5nPY7s1O3ZZoz5PsQMp4q2ukCZ9MvUHbA-2FdCnviuc8EmzUf-2BskDpgbS9TVmuFGHw4PrN-2BBi-2B-2BMRNhSt0UeQQ-3D-3Dx1G-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWhOsOkFCbBQy-2BxZqiDVv0XBQUeEftpbg0i-2FdAX2CVZEjuAeidCu4-2Brbf83VDSy9hqEBwYeHqZfEEzzszKDePNX4pQcnCf0-2FMT6HcefN-2Fj9Oz3QpgBxn6Cle2g0slpe5MDA-3D-3D))

**Bear, it self-funds until it doesn't.** Berezin's $500B depreciation wall exceeds combined earnings; the buyer-capex/seller-profit asymmetry is "double dipping"; and a Nomura chart shows **hyperscaler free cash flow falling toward zero** even as the S&P grinds higher, "where is this money coming from?" The MAG7-plus-Broadcom-plus-Oracle complex erased **~$2.7T of value in June** (MSFT -$558B, AMZN -$385B, GOOGL -$361B, AVGO -$303B). ([TraderMerlin, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5Z5A-2Bp0UcR9i6EiAFpOXRTqQQlBf3CFkz-2BCLYfCB2oDtSrV1CY83hHNz2DsTDTvWij2SSMclOxD3rDunThG3s3A-2BS86-2FHi3DvaLrT-2FGTZlQ-3D-3Dc-MR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWsjmkls0phMHbHRn5d3iSFQrk3dJ8-2B43Mv3yjGLNuSGHGWCIv2u7Mkoi5A5LMNlTkZddaBhQeNOodzBD37YwOLctiBjEegYe56fBMVqFCZNbgz3SzN9gbkr8wvFdDWpoow-3D-3D))

**Sell signals to watch:** July 10 SK Hynix print draining capital from the rest of the complex; any hyperscaler trimming 2-year capex at July earnings; Apple's iPhone pricing triggering demand destruction; "designed-around-HBM" cheaper-memory chips (Qualcomm) capping demand; hyperscaler FCF confirmed negative at July prints.

**Stocks in play**

**NVDA.** *Bull:* the gross-margin benchmark Micron is measured against, AI cycle re-validated. *Bear:* a net decliner on a +15% Micron day, "back at a price it first reached in October of last year," with Berezin flagging the moat "eroding" as Google/Amazon/AMD/Broadcom field their own silicon. *Next:* TSMC earnings mid-July; Q2 print August. ([Closing Bell, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjNvN-2BNl-2BlvjMiPyXJ86OmiYJbNfsEcoHgfyUO40v8Fdpk2x5xT-2BpkROQIEDwIOjC3QiORJU1Z8Ilh4Brgh-2BOSkdri4Gf5zH6yDmB9MEwHWXw-3D-3D1Ub6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWhFoJKnyl2oqcjhoqFB7xwET-2F5yLMP1G4iXTWg6V8pWgrbFbUHKhq5oYkYHDjLFe576SdrMbcSB8w7SrWc-2FSd8la7no1qGuuJOl7PuPBDpsE3EwhKdvO-2F9xBgMbo7VlX2g-3D-3D))

**AVGO.** *Bull:* Hock Tan's "insatiable demand from our six customers… not a bubble" was the line of the day. *Bear:* down with the complex, ~$303B of cap shed in June. *Next:* custom-silicon ramp milestones. ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5XDbufSIvwALEzBcBMmdI7P5nPY7s1O3ZZoz5PsQMp4q2ukCZ9MvUHbA-2FdCnviuc8EmzUf-2BskDpgbS9TVmuFGHw4PrN-2BBi-2B-2BMRNhSt0UeQQ-3D-3DVrIT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWhb6GgCqx-2BzwkWh2sjJOeXHKGQxJJCmhhYKlXdlWpNCvOt2pJRyOkEL56T4qmBoV2bDc3NTHn8sNm3DD1RuYJx1prtB-2Fgqx7NkRqRXb-2BQJf3JImNBrs3iQsnHrC2mGDZSw-3D-3D))

**AMD.** Largely quiet on the tape, surfaced only as a custom-silicon name Berezin says is pressuring Nvidia. *Next:* AMD Advancing AI Day, July 2026. ([NAB Morning Call, Jun 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgHlDxSdVM46-2B146o8HdsPS0GE-2FaTEtvzyGAarcdTliMh7CAL3r45NNLA7Ky4D3taxDZpGh-2F1vfBzGawnaCf6RlYIBNDzaoFCksGa6rMqLYVw-3D-3DXuEl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWsgboQfsj-2Fzxhi2Uw1xGapI57GJaY7fn8NV-2FTwj-2FXSrgZL-2FWt2Gg85nIveD-2Fohu0SxNXEqTstXgcxZD6w3BbDUf8zyXX0mls-2FmqNLzEMrEg5yWLdzmvozFo-2BY-2Fnk6zQPyg-3D-3D))

**MSFT.** *Bull:* none fresh. *Bear:* the archetypal spender and the day's funding source, **-$558B in June (~-20% on the month)**, and hiked Xbox prices into the same crunch. *Next:* FY26 Q4 capex at July earnings. ([TraderMerlin, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5Z5A-2Bp0UcR9i6EiAFpOXRTqQQlBf3CFkz-2BCLYfCB2oDtSrV1CY83hHNz2DsTDTvWij2SSMclOxD3rDunThG3s3A-2BS86-2FHi3DvaLrT-2FGTZlQ-3D-3Dijjl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWuXYPwMKZYefpNHlQkudzzkgFH7RtB1Uur2fdRA1RJOwk-2BBipBSaol3rHQWZgRcObSvy6yGtRH2lv7UdP1Ru1YfFHTe-2FU2qEakcwSxcSj2LXZHLEZt2FwaxdHgQzY6IGSg-3D-3D))

**GOOGL.** *Bull:* TPU remains the validated custom-silicon template. *Bear:* a spender footing the bill, **-$361B in June.** *Next:* July capex guide. ([NAB Morning Call, Jun 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgHlDxSdVM46-2B146o8HdsPS0GE-2FaTEtvzyGAarcdTliMh7CAL3r45NNLA7Ky4D3taxDZpGh-2F1vfBzGawnaCf6RlYIBNDzaoFCksGa6rMqLYVw-3D-3DG8WQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWlriGAx1zRq9lAdslDFwvY-2B8OcBizbZdJeeYYHBPD-2F7nVylUQuTxqP8Y3ixJPrN3f-2BKkmzowfxqz6aDL00fq27Arrd1wq1GL08Jyy7oHJBfcSU1EGEaxQ1lppkTvYbdPJQ-3D-3D))

**AMZN.** *Bull:* Broadcom "signed and will soon be delivering compute for AWS" (Tan); Trainium is the in-house template. *Bear:* a spender, **-$385B in June**, flagged as next to tap debt. *Next:* July earnings. ([Squawk Box Europe Express, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjYv6Zyph7ABCNiUlP-2FTZ7w0EYCinjj5nkW-2BWL70PYr7P2F8fng2mOD1a5OPZXllahJz8FJAVCAI-2B3SWO-2Fe2-2BKlH5Ki9-2B9WppDPMgxAFTQbpQ-3D-3Dv1JZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWiBLYNnS-2FJwDqqDw1BrWQ0YaTEd-2FZX-2FkT7-2Bz3-2Bdch-2FInu-2BCY8w6obcYaAe2ozhmD2gMUM3zTkJPUxCtswnakpq7MfOMA-2BuCUQ3RwxH4UMKDha-2BRkTrxlX7qnOU7Q6bBdIw-3D-3D))

**META.** *Bull:* named **Qualcomm's first data-center-CPU customer**, a small but real second-sourcing of compute. *Bear:* a net decliner, firmly a spender. *Next:* July earnings. ([Squawk Pod, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4spNQ1rSWDUIIgcQIkUtDK9Lb8-2F3648iMcPWzxhAvnAOZlN1XipQdn2DJ7-2BhqSPCRbvtFj-2BBZ7dAdVdqEyL4tQeerkNJeNF5N5gleJVDnbA-3D-3DtJct_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWmfW82Nx0dDTmb6fbqYck2KQ3pxOln2-2FGFAOlLqAmPski9FrZsI7wVqatDi1dw43S-2BJXx2tC2f3g-2B-2Fp2uGMBhsyTdZWMkY2CGj9Kz6mRoPk-2Fd5UqGgycWV8UMkZVKXbHdA-3D-3D))

**Read-throughs**

- **Memory / HBM, green light, but capital supply is the new variable.** SK Hynix's **July 10 ~$30B Nasdaq ADR** could be the largest US listing ever; bull read is a re-rate for the group, bear read is it siphons money from Micron and Seagate. Korean names ripped (KOSPI +6%) on the listing and a Samsung buyback. Own the recipients, watch July 10 for the funding test. ([Squawk Box Europe Express, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjYv6Zyph7ABCNiUlP-2FTZ7w0EYCinjj5nkW-2BWL70PYr7P2F8fng2mOD1a5OPZXllahJz8FJAVCAI-2B3SWO-2Fe2-2BKlH5Ki9-2B9WppDPMgxAFTQbpQ-3D-3DkwAc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWpMpWrhU3SOxeVyExeFuwDEuIDykVRRa8A3L0JbTP1ht-2B1Taxnhgs5u2RyWxzg4k-2BHA3JHQ7jDgbfO8U5vZUL9O90fQdq6YXxbb-2FsXjMIOKzpLckntKLMRZO19CY6YCYNw-3D-3D))
- **Optics, Lumentum and Coherent are the 2028 call.** Jay Goldberg (Seaport): "2028, a massive, massive data center optical buildup… orders of magnitude increase in content," but "optical always disappoints on timing." Entry is the timing-driven dip, not the print. ([Closing Bell, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjNvN-2BNl-2BlvjMiPyXJ86OmiYJbNfsEcoHgfyUO40v8Fdpk2x5xT-2BpkROQIEDwIOjC3QiORJU1Z8Ilh4Brgh-2BOSkdri4Gf5zH6yDmB9MEwHWXw-3D-3D2ail_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWk1ZywHOIJiyyTNKVpjwTrSUHsw-2FyaDLn1PfdFJ0XWx5xu8jjEl0PZ4SJTigmySt5WhQ0FjOt9jBHyzGiwswPz9WOq-2BHGHPzljztG8ZrISWCJ3bdeE9qNpJCuN-2Bu9UHC4g-3D-3D))
- **Power / thermal (VRT, ETN), behind-the-meter plus storage, transients as the moat.** Saladyga's thesis underwrites batteries/UPS *on top of* generation. No fresh GE Vernova print, but underwrite Vertiv/Eaton off the ride-through and storage build. Separately, the US switched on a new nuclear reactor at Idaho National Laboratory, first in five decades, a baseload signal, not a transient fix. ([The QTS Experience, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjZJNGPlTF8uqO3jt-2BXI6pSFralWB2Te8rnpo6yh08zVDbOu5kBVRpFLriefJDDe9KzvbKHdjry3qSWsTTTbewOYFzbQMbsovBJMRDc1BloYQ-3D-3DZyBR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWsyBBpw1RqvOzjgOJozucr4bCqV9WiExm4Js9vmVoBTyMLSbl8VqPbQZE-2F3j2E0CSNIYmqapcfGxWtr8Ld32AwcjrqTzrCNjDjd-2B5XAX5tq7VlGZLUY-2Fz9kZqZkBaRmkgA-3D-3D))
- **Chipflation, the new macro overlay.** Apple, Microsoft, Dell, HPE all raising prices: a "third wave" after tariffs and oil, "impervious to short-term interest rates." Watch the read-through to PCE and the Fed. ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgIjJqIjPoPkGsWTXJa3-2FhUGd0ZO6k0FozC5jLk0Xk-2BM56R0FmAOERqWwvg2LIw9XaSmqIpeoaUeZF6or5XOqvsEcTrqD81rvwa5HjXc-2FIlQQ-3D-3DkyBV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWjgs7TUQ1WXNGtdqrrNa3kivAY2rnL7J8miC3I8iGzTin8HdwyB-2FwdVgC4ernfGi08sFVyYO2y1I4Wlqe19Dr2u5TmC9L7BQiwc3K0DacECCbaCg7mcvJKif6H8IcZ0yHg-3D-3D))

**What changed vs last issue**

Last issue ([Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiz-2FwLrZ2bH6AgzSxRaFy6npfEiTPpMudb6A91kYODSQ0lWwZ3rK-2BiAJUMA-2FynBux846Bzl6he-2FDR0AxaYPwJpCissCA4sTP9ImDeolTIvj8A-3D-3DHM_l_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrKD0DQzyJGoZ22IsPyyXDC-2FcflKhYLHhnG-2B6VtHzpWtxmR4DDM7EEcGqr98SpJcw0WYL8odKO4pU8offyG7qcdeL5nd4HDloOE-2BMlyCPk4tTEged8tVy7Is3NCIykRX-2FBvd8E-2Bf1dHbiIve5vt7D0-2BkVpVC7NnnlDcwSlNsegiw-3D-3D), "Micron beat the bull case. Buy the recipients.") made the recipients-over-spenders call off the after-hours print. In one session the market executed it:

- **The trade worked.** Micron +15%, SanDisk +22%, WFE +7%+; MAG7 became the funding source and shed ~$2.7T in June. The rotation is now the dominant tape.
- **SK Hynix got a date and size:** July 10, ~$30B Nasdaq ADR, firmer than last issue's "weighing a ~$29B IPO," now a concrete near-term liquidity event.
- **The contracts got named:** take-or-pay, five-year, first-ever for memory; ~$100B guaranteed through 2030. Yesterday's "self-funds" point now has a structure under it.
- **New second-order risk, chipflation.** The crunch is visibly taxing Apple/Microsoft/Dell and feeding PCE, not in yesterday's note.
- **The bear sharpened** from yesterday's $2T-revenue-gap to Berezin's $500B-by-2030 depreciation wall and the "double-dipping" earnings-bubble framing, corroborated by Nomura's hyperscaler-FCF-toward-zero chart.
- **Aggregate capex** held at "**$700B+ this year, over $1T next**" (cited ~$741 to 750B). No fresh GE Vernova or ERCOT/SB6 queue print this cycle.