# Anthropic Doubles Inference Margin to 70 Percent as the AI Token Bill Hits SaaS Vendors - Is SaaS Broken? - Week of June 26, 2026

> Enterprise software newsletter for the week of June 26, 2026. Anthropic reportedly lifted inference gross margins from 38% to over 70%, signaling AI-layer COGS can re-rate, even as Uber, Meta and Microsoft capping token use and a SaaS CEO putting numbers on a multiple de-rating showed the bill for using that intelligence came due.

## Is SaaS Broken?

### Week of June 26, 2026: Anthropic Doubles Inference Margin to 70 Percent as the AI Token Bill Hits SaaS Vendors

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Two Fridays ago the bear case got its number: OpenAI's leaked 39% gross margin, "proof" the AI layer is half as profitable as software. This week, the rebuttal, from the same place. Anthropic reportedly took inference margins from 38% to over 70%. Inference can re-rate; so can the cost line under every SaaS vendor's AI feature. The catch: the bill for everyone *using* that intelligence came due the same week, and it is ugly.

**TL;DR**

- **Anthropic's inference gross margin reportedly jumped from 38% to over 70%**, the cleanest sign yet that AI-layer COGS can climb toward SaaS levels. The "52% vs 75-85%" floor just got less scary.
- **The AI bill came due, loudly.** Uber blew its entire 2026 AI budget in Q1; Meta and even Microsoft are capping engineers' token use, token COGS is now an earnings-call complaint, not a theory.
- **A SaaS CEO put numbers on the de-rating:** public SaaS multiples more than halved, now *below* the S&P 500. Workday -54%, Monday and Klaviyo -50%+. "AI features won't save you."

**What's new**

**1. Anthropic flipped the margin script.** On [Elon Musk Podcast, 6/21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicJG1G-2Fsjt7WIJTLMULFYVxbTnsv-2BjeIQpc8ncSEAOcjz2g5GmT6Kk7ptYn10wRLmOj3cp-2F83ab-2B8HavsCpBE3-2FAcTnVSxN8tajUx7Vkim9w-3D-3DaLHH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUB-2BfjsgvrEulHEmd6oFUvhfaXex7wL3CUrlGmUKEsC4FjsQ15BWcPcuYXdIwLB2tKeE9jq23TZraZ-2FiId-2Fy7s35GNskn9OwoKLxDiNS4m49ckhI1wX9dVSeTgSfHEaF9sg-3D-3D) [Analyst, citing the Ramp AI Index], Anthropic "dropped their compute spending from 71 cents per revenue dollar down to 56 cents... inference gross margins surged from 38% to over 70%," on a "$47 billion" run rate, via prompt caching and a shift to its priciest tier. Translation: the AI-COGS floor under SaaS isn't fixed at 52%, it's an engineering problem.

**2. The token bill came due, with names attached.** On [RiskReversal, 6/22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxzH1dESpuj7aji3gj-2FWPU-2F-2FBojB-2BR10Kx5tsW3Y3nxvJcIBp5sqXlYgITZC4tf4ra8FlqBIGeoHA3qXr1x7H-2BZNwQq8D5TczTs-2Bt1JebiaA-3D-3DiBzk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUDDWvr7Bxw8F1SImflFs1pLUiFjW3MIF4iuCkjRTG8RyJbPWKeTaUKpaN7VwnyAf22byjSAhOpxvhc2jd4kUE8m-2BKmV3Ks48NTNfYVnRO8PyjPtsLQXRlDFSqI-2FiIL1xeQ-3D-3D), CNBC's **Deirdre Bosa [Analyst]** said Wall Street is "saying on earnings calls token costs are eating into our margins." **Danny Moses [Analyst]** had receipts: Uber "blew through their entire 2026 budget" in Q1, and Microsoft, "a 25% stake in OpenAI," was among the first "putting limits on their own engineers using tokens." [Tech Brew, 6/24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFLn1Qls7LxM4UXQeotJFoIOx2tCMaYV-2BemvPKww0AWYJGrsvi1zLD4evcwtpbwjFZkf5QVBlh5-2F27ZMmgCU-2FR4df25rJt1uD9cA3kmb6liw-3D-3D8Q1L_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUJSXlaHFZbrsETjAT10q0IZn7UGjbXDYNaUbGdK1vmhdc3tmLCltzbQkaFtNBEnHaWSVnV5R3JncZKoHCNgNZI69ze6MkpUAnwsgnfrRP2OB5slNOaYIU-2Bulrvfmmni-2F5Q-3D-3D) [Analyst, citing The Information] added Ensemble Health saving "$700,000 per year" on a model "1/20th as expensive." When usage is the unit, customers fight the bill.

**3. A SaaS CEO quantified the carnage.** On [NC Tweener Talks, 6/25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiTu67-2BKyBPTxj30RnuAfbBZDnOJ7dadJ-2FrFoUF-2FHBLITtT1Nki3IKqRgMFXIACGJX2wvRYQ21zNl1rq1ok0cDJwre3vNVTsSsLPTWjriuREw-3D-3DisAY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUIcQLncAL6GHfonRSN03qnEYM1OgIpbmQdr-2Bnh-2BuvQPjcsDvVhohA2iKhPucz-2BzZHcYBz9546DsqbBkHP6IyTsQdnz4BWAnWkjSH8Y6E3suWBd004d9lMzOtKcrMKoWtDA-3D-3D), Levitate founder/CEO **Jesse Lipson [Operator]** said "public SaaS multiples have been more than cut in half... trading below the overall S&P 500," naming "Workday still down 54 percent... Salesforce, HubSpot... Klaviyo and Monday... down 50 plus percent." His warning hits our seven: "you should not be proud that you are building a lot of AI features... they're getting crushed." His "removal test": pull the AI out, does the product still work? Bolt-on AI doesn't.

**4. Open source is now eating the lucrative customer.** On [Everyday AI #804, 6/23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh-2FESt2td-2FX5b-2Fkacoz006ys0Nl8MAlk-2FkR8-2FgH-2BpBLurPQD5WEbyAzGaEuk6Y31oeM6HnlU2nFPZg-2B-2FCswzdo5sALx3mPnpKdAWh8iEwHYEw-3D-3DKQVz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUPOcQfwMR35ZQpPHQiosTaELR3iBPCbOletW6rVIgXWOTJguAWFj2v9o8VH44LaFcASvetKVfujnCGbBYSNFLKVHpewhGQwbzGOFWgXHCULx7nxt2vlpXDCCFVLDdE-2F4iw-3D-3D) [Analyst], one engineer reported "spending $300 a day on Claude, switched to GLM, spent $3.82 today"; China's GLM-5.2 now ranks top-three, ahead of Google. On [Everyday AI #803, 6/22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhN2poMI-2B5Kgp3Ji5odQhPjY6-2BlmkluVq6iIy951KnB4GexUnVwYL4X-2BT-2B0RqCEhpvLIuJz8bhwQT8W9B1DVIws3WGhwCJrHeZC47nk3CvM5A-3D-3DP0dO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUNRne-2BkLOMhhCQar1tdnog2wWquwHdpgwYXqvKqyKj2jiT2XxfJxA2gHuhaoiJyCf5FcHazO1mGpw3a3rKuaxWIvuZP-2BlLbwnximjI7-2FVZ3pmEWCZuzvyifT9xBg-2FGcYiA-3D-3D), Microsoft is eyeing DeepSeek V4 at "87 cents per million tokens compared to Anthropic's $50" and moving Copilot CoWork "to a usage based pricing model"; four of five top OpenRouter models in early June were Chinese ([Patrick Boyle, 6/21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjSTVluITGcg3lCr27Qkc0af09gotjIkzwBXwlxCyboM-2FObKtarxcHI7lA-2BHMZOtd1-2B1zqsDA67RbdsGmi0DUYt9YhKi1riikZlUBDQ0M8KyA-3D-3DDxz__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUAdfwt2oGkHeBIqEEdk1p2hoi1IkxGH0DlEidqgmZHsEcB8mTs67BCTk9ta4SFo8s3MQT9l77r4bT9NXokQb7mKR7cnpmd7g9-2FF-2FLufhk2W3LSH-2F90DndBV-2FnOmjinXQ3A-3D-3D)) [Analyst]. Per [20VC, 6/25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjqR1m41iTl1vwNrvJfIwgRy5Rzn4-2BgzGCAtsBU-2B2haeG6aXIM6WTqb6WPKe8TDI6nlRuXcytKdMo6V806zONXyh30jodbMZbzEa2SGd98gMQ-3D-3DB0i5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUIxlxhR6sl8fk-2FWMr9pP5IftDkpL9ej1K4qLW0mgcFdMOUCwwzcrTgJw9jv69-2BK-2B5HQCJQu4dzmwRNGF4m-2BdQ7ztIbHAeQ85VmSlTJlBl14necYGraRfhD9mYvGmBR5Clg-3D-3D) [Analyst], open source targets the labs' "lucrative" 40-70%-margin enterprise customer.

**5. Operators say consumption pricing isn't optional.** On [Run the Numbers, 6/22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGKviypAMcuXh3htYPuFFFB1fixgO6a-2BMaIc5wpR3X35Pv9FvK3Cd80A4O7eTXlxvgxuW3y-2Fw1c48RzoBYD7nfHFEqXSA7uAZ6e5tiOXTS9w-3D-3D0lH-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUE8Kp5BPQQ-2B-2FsJx0VmnLITnwj9-2FFkts6XdP4CZPVKLl9UBwygXkf-2FDjP1VLFwi6ZjlESWH2fGbjzgKeMijVp8VD4LIJlT-2FmhZ0hmtvjmhSQZ2UtoMar2zCf6rXjvOizIXQ-3D-3D), Confluent's CFO **[Operator]**: "every AI-native business has some form of usage-based pricing... Otherwise you're probably going to lose money," a "one-way door." Monday.com's CPTO **Daniel Leria [Operator]** echoed it on [AWS, 6/22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhv0nRsOX0Ut19m2d6GrUxzmhnSqO5bVUcdp1nt1dIVkXtUxmOkKYmSCNkxzkdwTVaxyUYMMAgOyZjwaVTDOx1vFLNysJwxOUVroOAGF8wFHQ-3D-3DPYW1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUD3co5Nc2kBK56-2F1scEnkUuKGKsmT-2B-2F-2BxTMuhyfIhuupSqmwmaYHS9kPRclhiv2r9UUOjlWSEJfYmjnAckS12pYe-2FU24JLmvtG76sVzt0E6FAHQOm2hw6hFwAVlQFqYSYw-3D-3D): hybrid seat + AI-credit pricing, "we want to be the ones doing the work for them with AI."

**The debate**

**Bear, per-seat SaaS is structurally broken.** The de-rating already happened (Lipson: multiples below the S&P), AI features buy nothing, and intelligence routes to the cheapest model. **Ed Zitron [Analyst]** went further on [Monetary Matters, 6/21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiip0LHzhKtOIBLhGhwwAF3oPQroaAuYU4rCKAfYl6Nfc002Cj5-2B-2BLyHiN4VmSungddAdf7-2Fj2Aq3F9chuZQ3aRp1-2BR8PXRBLY8Aw-2B-2FDBufyQ-3D-3DK5B3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUI9tZoDRTkvJ2XtCfO-2Fp1x6blHBTrWeWM7o2mFCqH3KIEIT64MoB3HCVcnNiFHEhHF7lBohg71JsHwvdCQ1izkJ-2Bro8aVQ9WqHg2qchX7DGdp3AJ0YstzO-2BYKaV3vljNLg-3D-3D): even the headline AI margins are fiction, "to consider their gross margin without sales and marketing is just kind of laughable." And on [TECHtonic, 6/26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhLfvwwQsWT8JExuOgWZt-2B6X8FwI-2BnIYPRDVF-2BoLjP3oPMIhlIRqLXG-2FpMHulV7zv-2BxYDa0ldXWGGLw2Fj6xW-2FXt1BlR0hUfW3XTD-2Bl40XQ2g-3D-3DDSuQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUDIjYfyIY4Rh7b4f6lCeM1J6S6cGmoBx5tGmR6fyGq0KbnPATO7F2-2Fv6TTPO9Un86QkrKdnjGf7Kdh2QUjxYa-2BT3Sp3yLvUaphVkWTcOn3COiwv1K1P7Govy205Mfabrmw-3D-3D) [Analyst], the kicker: some firms find "it's cheaper to put a junior coder on" a task than the AI. So much for one agent replacing five seats.

**Bull, incumbents own the data and the plumbing.** Anthropic's 38% to 70% says COGS is solvable; if intelligence commoditizes, value flows to whoever owns the workflow and the data. Even Lipson concedes "CRMs are somewhat insulated... you're the source of truth." Pegasystems CEO **Alan Treffler [Operator]** ([Tech Talks, 6/19](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjM5fvKRzEpWqx3Wjc7Ltq9kegGZFKKWzTZeQ7-2F884IODbrv5OMNgvV4a0mKBsM-2BFSnCeoDTqS00LR8XA-2BJ9N-2FvV6jN-2FN2r5q85RjSEagwobw-3D-3Dkw8F_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUMU-2BkLx-2BDl4P-2FIEWEfHppvb9NYJG9TIkyPXAidPxMZizZUVCCf-2FPYzXC2v0iotWlDwXaH4WdZN2T9Pmmq-2FjVKgf5elnHFq0z9Aq76raiQAld4c0bQVHlb-2FyTvkg4-2FQbaBg-3D-3D)) showed the escape hatch, amortize reasoning into reusable "recipes" so "we don't have to charge for tokens." Swing factor unchanged: does consumption revenue outrun seat bleed? This week the bear had the data; the bull had the trajectory.

**Stocks in play**

- **ADBE**, *Bull:* deep switching costs, cheap and buyback-heavy near multi-year lows ([Investor's Podcast, 6/21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhkHhwwH3e01spua-2FQXqOYIvjPr6U3p8CU7q9MlF5TgMdppLsSrtcq8kh4ozNNdPhpeOxyaTy1x6Q3AyVa8d-2F7Sn2V-2BLn6QiaemsEHXbK4Fmw-3D-3Dm4hX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUJt4ktRG4AsIpegzjtw5bmbYZgOkEDBhcbxChWdMj-2BlLT5qp3xKVEMNGm2pArznoxmy6nBzYOAtlArOc-2Fj9mkf42kNtDAbH-2FEt4ub7kRIuIVkx4PLCLB1B7FrsLBbx-2BzTQ-3D-3D)) [Analyst]. *Bear:* AI-disruption fear plus CEO-and-CFO turnover mid-pivot. *Catalyst:* next print under new-CFO margin framing.
- **CRM**, *Bull:* the "source of truth," ~80% share; bought AI-support vendor FIN for $3.6B, partly to cut its own lab bills ([Tech Brew, 6/24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFLn1Qls7LxM4UXQeotJFoIOx2tCMaYV-2BemvPKww0AWYJGrsvi1zLD4evcwtpbwjFZkf5QVBlh5-2F27ZMmgCU-2FR4df25rJt1uD9cA3kmb6liw-3D-3DeWGi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUPFAap7TRh-2BfG1mr3f5JoJbhA1q6ImbZaYkIiuyCekOnzLnZc-2FOKj08RGVN2e25lZqPRFLv15wUFWA-2BGxHOKpTFja8m5c-2BaZok9my9OrrXI-2Fys97YTQjWYPKcBa3lgF-2Big-3D-3D)). *Bear:* named in the down-50%+ cohort (Lipson) [Operator]. *Catalyst:* Agentforce consumption-ARR.
- **DDOG**, *Bull:* already consumption-priced, so volume is a tailwind. *Bear:* if customers cap AI usage, metered revenue slows too. *Catalyst:* next NRR. *(No coverage.)*
- **TEAM**, *Bull:* Rovo rides agents on a sticky cloud base. *Bear:* still seat-priced into seat erosion. *Catalyst:* Rovo consumption metrics. *(No coverage.)*
- **HUBS**, *Bull:* SMB "source of truth" gets Lipson's CRM-insulation logic. *Bear:* most seat-exposed, named in the de-rating cohort (Lipson) [Operator]. *Catalyst:* Breeze attach and NRR.
- **ASAN**, *Bull:* AI Studio agents as teammates. *Bear:* smallest and most seat-dependent. *Catalyst:* AI Studio monetization. *(No coverage.)*
- **MNDY**, *Bull:* furthest along, 250,000 customers, ~$1.2B revenue, hybrid seat + AI-credit pricing built to "do the work for you" (CPTO Daniel Leria, [AWS, 6/22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhv0nRsOX0Ut19m2d6GrUxzmhnSqO5bVUcdp1nt1dIVkXtUxmOkKYmSCNkxzkdwTVaxyUYMMAgOyZjwaVTDOx1vFLNysJwxOUVroOAGF8wFHQ-3D-3DtZY2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXVfmavH1cZBBvAuq09kZNh1cXxCNRs5KDkbTZQG1LoUJVEv8ZRT2VjUynaAZ5N8ol4UdMhTTtqK5k-2BAOVJmT8FbY-2ByswLAuuPqaxqFZQ1Rg5T1F9HZvospPtPCoo2Eb-2FOB-2BrlxgWJDUWLjx-2BDQR93pIfncAXRp9ahHzlW6omSXVA-3D-3D)) [Operator]. *Bear:* SMB seat base, named down 50%+ (Lipson). *Catalyst:* first AI-credit consumption disclosure.

**Read-throughs**

- **Seat-heavy SMB SaaS (HUBS, ASAN, MNDY)** already took the multiple hit; the question is NRR now. Lipson's "removal test" is the screen, bolt-on AI gets 3-6x revenue at best.
- **Model/inference vendors** got a bull surprise (Anthropic's 70%) and a bear one (open source targeting their best customer); a declared OpenAI price war caps lab pricing power, good for the application layer that resells tokens.
- **Multiple de-rating** splits by proof: AI-native and consumption-durable names get the benefit of the doubt; bolt-on seat-counters trade below the S&P until they print otherwise.

**What changed vs last week**

Last week's hard number (OpenAI's 39%) got its mirror, Anthropic's 38% to 70%; the inference-margin debate now cuts both ways. The "SaaSpocalypse" stopped being a pundit's word: a SaaS CEO put named comps on it, and the token bill turned concrete with Uber, Meta and Microsoft capping usage. **Monday.com got its first direct operator airtime in three weeks**; **Adobe and Salesforce** drew real discussion (CRM's $3.6B FIN deal is new). Still dark: **Datadog, Atlassian, Asana**. Still missing two weeks running: an AI-feature gross margin from an in-scope vendor, and a hard NRR print from any of the seven.