# Micron Blowout and the Memory Super Cycle With OpenAI Broadcom Jalapeno and SK Hynix Nasdaq Listing - Semiconductor Podcast Briefing - Week of June 27, 2026

> Semiconductor podcast briefing for the week of June 27, 2026. Micron printed a blowout and ripped +15 to 19% on 84.9% gross margins and ~$100B of contracted revenue, OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled the 'Jalapeño' custom inference chip, and SK Hynix set a ~$29.4B Nasdaq ADR targeted for July 10.

## Semiconductor Podcast Briefing

### Week of June 27, 2026: Micron Blowout and the Memory Super Cycle With OpenAI Broadcom Jalapeno and SK Hynix Nasdaq Listing

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Week of June 21–27, 2026 (trailing 7 days; a few flagged items run to June 17–18). A weekly synthesis of what semiconductor-relevant podcast voices, analysts, PMs, executives, and operators actually said this week. Quotes are verbatim with source links preserved.

**TL;DR, five things that mattered this week**

- **Micron printed a blowout and the stock ripped +15 to 19%.** Q3 FY26 revenue ~$41.5B vs ~$35.5B est, EPS $25.11 vs ~$20.37 est, gross margin 84.9% ("better than NVIDIA's"), and Q4 revenue guided to ~$50B vs ~$43B consensus. DRAM ASPs +60% q/q, NAND +80% q/q. Micron disclosed ~$100B of contracted revenue through 2029 to 2030 with price floors holding margins above 80%.
- **OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled "Jalapeño,"** OpenAI's first custom inference chip, co-developed with Broadcom, ~50% lower cost per inference vs a typical AI GPU, gigawatt-scale deployment beginning late 2026 and "full bore in '28." Both Greg Brockman and Hock Tan framed it as additive to Nvidia, not a replacement ("we cannot get compute fast enough").
- **SK Hynix set a ~$29.4B US ADR listing on Nasdaq** (trading targeted ~July 10), one of the top-5 equity sales ever, to fund HBM capacity in Korea and the US. SK Hynix holds ~57% of the HBM market; Korean makers hold ~80%.
- **The cycle debate hardened into "secular vs commodity."** Bulls (Seaport, Lazard, MacroMinds) call memory "an irreplaceable resource" with supply-demand favorable into 2028 to 2029; bears (Morningstar, Josh Brown, Jim Chanos) warn this is "a particularly durable upcycle, but a cycle all the same," with new supply landing late 2027 and 2028.
- **Memory inflation is now bleeding into end markets.** Apple is reportedly raising MacBook/iPad prices 17 to 25% (~$100 to $300; iPhone 18 Pro potentially +$280), and DRAM up ~450% in four months is costing GM, Ford, and Honda "hundreds of millions" each, threatening to push ADAS features into premium trims.

## 1. AI Chip Demand & Hyperscaler CapEx (NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL)

OpenAI's "Jalapeño" custom chip, the headline of the week. In a CNBC exclusive (2026-06-24), OpenAI President & Co-Founder Greg Brockman and Broadcom CEO Hock Tan announced OpenAI's first custom AI inference processor, co-developed with Broadcom.

Brockman: "This is a real performance improvement on performance per watt in terms of performance per dollar. And so for a fixed amount of intelligence, for a fixed model, it is so much more performant."

On Nvidia dependence: "It's very additive. We feel that we cannot get compute fast enough to keep up with demand. And so we're really going as fast as we can on compute on all axes."

Hock Tan: "Compute demand among our 6 customers is simply insatiable... And this is not just '26, not '27. We're seeing that same and even elevated demand in '28 as well."

Tan's strategic thesis: "Every model maker, LLM frontier model developer, will eventually go towards building, designing, building their own silicon compute capacity... simply because they can do it much better."

Timeline: gigawatt-scale deployment beginning late 2026, "going full bore definitely in '28"; demand to "exceed his prior 1.3 gigawatt estimate." Reported ~50% lower cost vs a typical AI GPU for inference ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgm0CU5AxH-2B3G-2Fmo6nn8xBJoWivD2hwOnDtPsg9LXeNlam0zVy2NKrLO6ZhBt05qqXli2mHDqjF0dCMqt9BbDlK62Xq77YaxiTrTLljDb3dWA-3D-3D2035_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45MCn-2FXvkGhZV8sPNOlJ2k1ktQ36VpIHwIOUBD-2FqtNh80YSotr-2FddlObF9a1MD4PpMI7XBpRksNG9dFhaTKq7rblSOeifwuVxG9IjZRjkEs8RK163Myyvp27AEKCPnKd6-2Bg-3D-3D)).

CJ Muse (Cantor Fitzgerald), winners and skeptics (2026-06-24):

- TSMC allocation: "All of our work suggests that they're prioritizing NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. And so I think those are your three kind of winners on the custom silicon front."
- Marvell: "Their business at Amazon and their coming business at Microsoft, coupled with their tremendous strength in optics, is driving much higher earnings power... $10 [EPS] into 2028."
- Skeptical on Qualcomm's data-center push: "I don't think it's easy to create a new business in the data center. It's a crowded market... You need to have a 5, 10-year roadmap." ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOido1-2BlTzqIOtRWYuqQd78auJYQOMtq-2FXSkB7fVFOVLBk4XnNFM-2Bc2ItYZ60iZnZSgenLGiJ1qABix38HbM7OwqTkbr-2Fxvy4vVp57wpS1w-2FFg-3D-3DXVXs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45LopMcar9TG8SW6MzTTYQnSAIb3CRUYunMezOpNSkdCLmcbxdDWOTFXI07auIFJfpJwH0XvwNDAAY6Pqoj3AZFbUAple6VGCnztcCCCFDchFbosQakqIoQGbXmM8OJUpsQ-3D-3D))

CapEx scale, from several desks:

- $2.9 trillion in global data-center capex 2025 to 2028 (Goldman estimate); consensus 42% EPS growth for AI-infra stocks by 2027 vs 10% for the S&P 500; 30% of MSCI World now reporting tangible AI-driven EBIT benefit ([The Compound and Friends, Jun 19](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg5t6RVV7RK-2Bwmw3sW5XIouktCGiREteIUC88VmP5sfuy7WlieP9DHh53VyvQWsJ-2Bd2VCQDxKelenMZVrOUnp2CfRH5j4nzv6KwcTussc6m0g-3D-3Dr5Tu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45AxBD1-2Fjb3xyJjE8YxSuql-2F2vA7i5hiFtDtGRSMLANsk7g0P6ewvX3-2BruHYUo7srSVyZXefILY8KQ2Lfv-2BspKQHrfi8TnQu89UyVj-2BxWaf3QwJTP3tYbwXK5AYhgHdCJUA-3D-3D), Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley).
- AI-related debt issuance ~$250B YTD, expected to double to ~$500B for full-year 2026; IG hyperscaler bonds alone >$100B ([Thoughts on the Market, Jun 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjbCSEaw3UG-2Fj4zfkpo49-2FXndC-2B27j3bzpb-2BrxOfs8f5j2KAUSoWXixyDOUCpNkAQX7X-2BDROA5JMlVq4uUoTUkwyD895kpM4qKUIeHdKVpMKA-3D-3DYmcD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45FJguiikJEU3WN6svrd7EWogoLWvIBSnYOHhPe-2BOd4KvRz4UXsVTut1bAV6gWBCQ77y5tS-2F6Dr6ST2F5gI5tDo-2BtHokQjHYWXk2jS03ZqlsKm3fhbdrAxzt9aCygF65I5w-3D-3D)).
- $850B of hyperscaler data-center leases not yet operational; Microsoft added ~$41B of commitments in one quarter. Celine Wu (Lazard, manages TEKY; top holding SK Hynix): "memory's strategic value is rising and changing to a primary driver for performance." ([Bloomberg Tech, Jun 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0h1wjt-2FXPU5E1HsdDa4q5dChjsb5RBqnf41DUTz3uJeiZTITTgyG-2BieoSe-2BtMQwMgCSrlVFNUjj9kRyZOLDry79CCbkpyZYmclqdq-2Bg1zhg-3D-3D6Qtw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45FVeBdtu6PqvpiSSI-2BI-2FfSOFPNRqZAFIu-2F-2Fx4X35kwHjJ-2FO-2FmmP8lxURxkoWvoTJ-2BS5CVqAyDPCMLlB2Ukfz-2B66ANxplCxt6WfLVSVGKNrS3HNjRw7Ywje8VpL3vSPZ62w-3D-3D))
- Andy Jassy (AWS CEO): Trainium is now a ~$50B annual run-rate business, "completely sold out over a year before shipping." ([AI Chat, Jun 19](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbbJDhMbZyLshP97dJlzWAQc7S4XH2GNwjsYgzahmWp64jhEVnz-2FQiDNOukeNm2Yva46SQycBIuniiFH0tgpBgS7mJUETDcGpkmmjzQLg2pw-3D-3DWh7M_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45L9NKpy8ljqA4XiwuB4GfIuuRSciD775AtHtjLZIhBfhM2mIgYZXyWFBBbNepFjuFCHWUN2kSj31eskskBhqXbQQAdcb6aCe4ROCkGSPP8Kbaj4d3ZVZ310MA9isy2-2Fmcg-3D-3D))

Operator view, Stephen Balaban (Lambda, CTO): "The people who are the naysayers, 'you're going to throw these GPUs out in five years,' are completely wrong... We continue to be generally underbuilding." H100s deployed in 2023 now lease at higher rates than at launch. Compute/servers are $35 to 45B per GW, the dominant layer of the data-center cost stack ([The MAD Podcast, Jun 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjqsbrmoeAuq7DiuJR-2BrtAqU0HOURNxbwLcADZS9uufiV7bpMtXwluvu0bAy4bRUnqmv2YDowEKTucjU4nJmSrQIXYpKwqhF9tw8lLs5kRWew-3D-3Dp3Le_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45Hi0T-2FsUNaO0RsOl7GNXyvgmhjTQKveU3n12-2BxkGJfXGTFqjzaIvKUHR-2BtIhe80NaAacc6NHtRCqHIToFftg1qsqvz228QvlkMAhkqrZUg1JdhmqDK-2BgropYveh4iCCivg-3D-3D)).

Contrarian / bear:

- Leopold Aschenbrenner (ex-OpenAI, ~$20B fund) holds ~$9B in shorts against NVIDIA, ASML, and Oracle, viewing the picks-and-shovels trade as "overcrowded rather than bearish on AI itself." ([Limitless, Jun 17](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgk-2B6Oo96Fa4nNr0KHW4SXWqSo-2F4e-2B8Li3fA7ihCvISqpbWyNQJZQF15KDYo1t9oessNpS0T8b39N7OQOiDisg5OHzKkeiunAagZdlT64HUpA-3D-3D01Xl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45KxTWDgQZXtjycFCEXLFGxjpkUmeVRYhRV5u7IX3biUdVlmyvJxNktvhJHGtzDlh-2B3L8iDe4EGq-2FfjI6oFesqfUdER-2FaG24WZp5uLEbNFLfsEY-2BT9VDxXS070lUpWYYf1g-3D-3D))
- Danny Moses & Deirdre Bosa: if hyperscaler capex pulls back on cheaper Chinese open-source models, memory makers fall hardest; end-user monetization math "doesn't work yet." ([RiskReversal Pod, Jun 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxzH1dESpuj7aji3gj-2FWPU-2F-2FBojB-2BR10Kx5tsW3Y3nxvJcIBp5sqXlYgITZC4tf4ra8FlqBIGeoHA3qXr1x7H-2BZNwQq8D5TczTs-2Bt1JebiaA-3D-3Dwgjn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45BzAEqCjihlvFn4KxuLXjR7u5ojW4A-2B5y1qeB2VjVxCewga8FthIcqywyfhWHTO9qnLKHMzBprD-2FcM3VPKBujAmMy0HgZE7WGA47u43wMcVkAauQRAh59KInUqL31BNiAw-3D-3D))
- Jim Chanos is notably not short the chipmakers: "you want to be long what the chips produce, not where the chips reside," his shorts are neoclouds/data-center operators earning "four or five, 6% returns on capital in the out years." ([Monetary Matters, Jun 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BZ-2FbiAlCcdQYF0bsFVQ6pgfy2VpfJA-2BSnjfodH-2F-2BDSp-2BBLb9ZGFEj410hF6RueqKg66yeYzTUIwtVwXa4b6NJsGWxSS-2BUR1uN8PDkj4bzuw-3D-3DJJ14_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45LBkW4f13TSJ3yCUMQXe-2FdopYEC4-2BVhhYptf4agJHAGeJSgIzV5Q2P-2FgQnqOLdr-2Fxe1MXjxXAr9DYKmcit5WVzVhr-2BQ4P6bY8Zobjhm5EWucuPx3jsfkQ8HuhdJIVhO3lw-3D-3D))

## 2. Memory Pricing (HBM, DRAM, NAND, MU, SK Hynix, Samsung)

Micron's Q3 FY26 report (reported ~June 24 to 25) was the dominant memory story of the week, see the earnings table in section 7 for the headline numbers. Key pricing and contract color:

DRAM ASPs +60% q/q, NAND +80% q/q. Josh Brown: "ASPs for DRAM are up 60% and NAND up 80%. And this is why Apple has to raise prices." Micron disclosed 14 to 16 strategic customer agreements locking in ~$100B of contracted revenue to 2029, with ~$22B of upfront capacity payments ([Halftime Report, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5e0Xs7cbPUDl43EmAuZOdg6H9Cc9rQrlxvKBq5geCksc5QeTFvYlIitN-2FGLtbhlH6f9J2DJpLNlCeb7iZEBNum0sHioXeC8MmrWFHNP0C-2Fw-3D-3DVte5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45ItykARnjJdmcDxUDX2pKynoMfErFI7QyD88h-2BahUOa-2BRwptk8OoYvBrlg16cxoRtw7Y0yRkXdNDhulQ-2FC-2BSkR3ASFaj2q1FDvFookLB3UsQty5Y-2BXhdier-2B7-2Bs8h-2F8jhw-3D-3D)).

Jake Silverman (Bloomberg Intelligence): "we're shifting from an AI training environment to AI inferencing, and that's just increasing the amount of memory you need." ~25% of revenue is contracted (targeting 50%); the floor pricing on those deals implies margins "north of 60%" even in a downturn, but the uncontracted half is the swing risk ([Bloomberg Intelligence, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgIoqzu-2F20ZTMo3kbXxbfMP3QQBQVekk-2BzUPcDkzEcvjAsnvxTAWaVykaDxLBtFmvmeaxsMDceWxYax-2BRqu6v2qvUuUI9JX4mPCXMDMxzQHNg-3D-3DJWCc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45FzguF3zFa-2BoKIn8r9krkNSi9sF11oy13NfAeaXK-2BiqOPS7a7fA86JPkSadFihBxX2AthOh-2FlLC-2Fq-2Bbx7z-2Bu9terXGjd3IMKtlQnjXIx9AmhW8xnGRXUWs1uC4YFHHJCqg-3D-3D)).

Post-print analyst targets: Citi $1,400, Mizuho $1,500, BofA $1,600; supply "won't normalize until 2028 at earliest." ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5XDbufSIvwALEzBcBMmdI7P5nPY7s1O3ZZoz5PsQMp4q2ukCZ9MvUHbA-2FdCnviuc8EmzUf-2BskDpgbS9TVmuFGHw4PrN-2BBi-2B-2BMRNhSt0UeQQ-3D-3D0rSR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45MAlCb87e24CLAdjLRFDi3Cq34xCQ1Mayp6aRLD1Ll39lbbGQ2atTlxfS53-2FJN6fQ-2B9C2rZM8PV-2F5jajIRHu32w83AtgS-2Fm-2Bu9-2FMK64J5ZUDhNV7-2BvnRkKXYwG1pNvjq1Q-3D-3D))

Sumit Sadana (Micron CBO): memory investment "shut down in 2023 due to poor pricing and margins"; revenue now up 346% y/y. JPMorgan's Samik Chatterjee: "The increase in memory costs has been unprecedented in recent years." ([Mac OS Ken, Jun 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgiLOGtyABDRwjeQUS-2BBjYyzI7fRzVwy-2FrpdDVIR3-2Be3wSL1bzM4Yv-2Ftvcj3jS5HU6-2Fd8BMAtquqOUfNqHM7fuqzSzJXoUQYx3UpMRYitFf6A-3D-3DrT8l_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45NYL0ZuXQ3usKJbv3zQ6CFapWImXiQa0i2nTRb0sFaWMg2spaNWBWz-2BvJGUBrB2q9PV2on8PMRJjoOvu6Lo4EzNR8Tif-2FQvMZ8TA8haWrDIOEaB81y5WI1L4kOC61xQG-2Bg-3D-3D))

SK Hynix's $29.4B Nasdaq ADR: planned trading start ~July 10, among the top-5 share sales of all time, to fund HBM capacity in Korea and the US. SK Hynix holds ~57% of the HBM market (Korean makers ~80% of total HBM) ([Bloomberg Tech, Jun 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0h1wjt-2FXPU5E1HsdDa4q5dChjsb5RBqnf41DUTz3uJeiZTITTgyG-2BieoSe-2BtMQwMgCSrlVFNUjj9kRyZOLDry79CCbkpyZYmclqdq-2Bg1zhg-3D-3DkOPc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45F0dgp4-2F-2BdqNBsghqpren-2BGSVxDiIU5FNBrLkAu-2F-2FcO-2BNzJebE-2BMkx63MYUZ6pM3uLttK06p8yRihLCSz5Tu6o2C94uSff6glJAdcR6eoqrdk3dIMpGi9xtbAnNHrVfkTw-3D-3D))

The mid-week scare: Korean memory names fell >12% overnight and the SOX/SMH fell ~6% on June 23 on reports of an SK Hynix HBM "slowdown," even as SMH tracked its best first half since inception in 2000 ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgCaUKwsUH1mqoQ9kcqJgCKTJewOLIDwc4dwnBRYNyYxJaog36SpK5v0kYrIhrbwonmH0-2BLHCNovqUffF4kcAHidurbpx6ThtVoZnZSHkm3FA-3D-3DkFXJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45PGwaM5xli53BR-2FdtqnUft4TgoeZc6Fwyo87cvgCmuwokJzZnZmH6N8gr5LDag6qP3YI5wLyeQQvVND21cUO1hcVf5VRCsC236-2Blo1Yn8l7I-2FfayfDmKRLW3st-2Fvv-2Bjb2Q-3D-3D); [Saxo Market Call, Jun 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiEvWp5tkdd3jwrQzy5YROhTd80yFlledC8RbZ0qlouM88L84drv9sJirTYAbhcmNYHBr2J31vNOzE1D-2BxaHJrTdBhRQ73YWQei-2BxwlUwQi1g-3D-3D1HJ5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45DDM7HD4ER6D5VkGxFYLInKqlLTSnxF8xhSu3gui2jB2IXmjZKH510JhUd5MOcllPWCz584HGnq2ZbvYF5mi1dDXowOpCZ0HiI295SXWpKB9AOR18Ute-2BdbXJrB-2FmjaVVQ-3D-3D))

Contrarian / valuation caution:

- Will Kerwin (Morningstar): "a particularly strong and particularly durable upcycle, but a cycle all the same... [six memory makers] building out a whole large amount of new supply in late 2027 and 2028... going to apply some downward pressure on these lofty prices." Morningstar fair value on Micron: $455 (well below the post-print price) ([The Morning Filter, Jun 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FkO4Y50P8Td8hGuohr36ns-2FEG2ncUIFJ77RewukagXdyuAVxP65ReYSTR4MW-2FT-2BhYzxRjDN3bdcYXj27r4RtqL-2FpVr4tdXr5UKhiT52TP1g-3D-3DQoGy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45N-2FpO7HODJAjie83p7MCwkFNNdYSbjcIU3alCqiLxdJW5hIT109TfRh-2ByTgDdfMdCnlIJfNg8K6Atow-2FjVneGVm6gFb1FPU9X9IAne-2FCO5axZ9x8lLCvsal2mVHflsl4-2Bw-3D-3D)).
- Micron characterized as "impressive but risky" given the cyclical nature of memory, "valuations... extremely stretched technically and vulnerable to correction." ([The Real Investment Show, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiHcC3hZ-2FrGUbB-2BhNezkpBBGzF6pc1Te3a-2BpEoyM5aFgSjNUZTbiNjdJ5rTelTrj15xGgscuIllZJi1bZ83BdIGKiRcv8-2BBzqino6SrEiH1sw-3D-3D4Gqw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45INo4-2FOlhrCtT1vSZNg2lqtcwNHZyv2CeVtOVnUzgrkHBFfNn4iuDyZVxAvVCRq-2BlSyAzEvH69DfsD2IamS9d-2BjZ7Hw5Lub-2BCmGKCswIiC3Ak-2BgBEbcdERGVzHoO-2FZSawg-3D-3D))

## 3. Semiconductor Capital Equipment / WFE (ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC)

ASML's CEO at VivaTech Paris (2026-06-17): "The demand for AI infrastructure is still enormous... a lot of us are convinced that we're going to be looking at a supply-limited market for AI, for semiconductor, for quite a few years." Customers are extending longer-term visibility; India's first fab (with Tata) expected next year (2027). On export compliance: "We have been following every single rules... That's true for DUV. That's true for EUV." ([Bloomberg Talks, Jun 17](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgbV-2BQXDXJ0aN4-2FY90f6OpM0Zy9h68ZuH-2BNu9w9MWc8eB7V-2FIREjxcZRO34UF7yqaHsBnE7C3RAE-2BkV0Om7GgpOCwkc5gV0KRazqm5upxJ-2B5w-3D-3D9tvr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45EKcE-2B7rW4rlSFjNg-2BYVSwH9St-2BTAP7Vw-2Fkh-2BZxjdiT5YnGMcXffiwXPkvbKvETdrtHvy9TFkfQf5P1YVhg3lBCey1pSBGdcvu3APHEgKhLhzt5J8WuSOoo1QyrwIbZlTA-3D-3D))

The structural constraint, Val Zlatev (MacroMinds): equipment makers "cannot really grow their revenues or their shipments by much more than 30% a year. That is a supply chain complexity." He notes ASML/LAM/AMAT are "very sound companies" but trade at ~35x forward, "much more expensive than Nvidia or Broadcom." ([Monetary Matters, Jun 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BZ-2FbiAlCcdQYF0bsFVQ6pgfy2VpfJA-2BSnjfodH-2F-2BDSp-2BBLb9ZGFEj410hF6RueqKg66yeYzTUIwtVwXa4b6NJsGWxSS-2BUR1uN8PDkj4bzuw-3D-3D1MVL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45HkCY7HaWOc2YhSqLKkbcyIERJHxAMyVgMwgbk9M0VpvawCjKzAxIKOBrjxbqMHU-2BsvB2Az4hAX7QwPt85hknLWXd4B3KxqqNmekPdlDDDqtFQF5omnWP0G4NofAy-2Bp2ew-3D-3D))

Note: AMAT, LRCX, and KLAC had no dedicated analyst or earnings coverage in this window, only the passing references above.

## 4. Foundry / Manufacturing (TSM, INTC, GFS)

Apple to Intel foundry partnership chatter (announced ~June 18). Ben Mellis (BofA head of tech research): "I think it's going to happen... Apple right now is facing shortages at TSMC... They've seen a surge in demand [for Macs with unified memory for AI agents]." He sees "multiple billions of upside" to Intel Foundry estimates, notes Intel 18A yields improving, and that "NVIDIA is lined up for 14A by 2029 in pretty high volume"; Intel price target "150 and beyond... if they execute, who knows, it can eclipse 200." ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOig1LZKflpFPra3CZwWD236Pbau2ODjHn5VVPZtn3mCiW1w36-2Bv-2Bc1eCSQnSr-2FlPAcaPGlUd9L4DiNdADoQF-2BlH8Np-2FuysO92-2Fd6zb2GfgYLA-3D-3DH3vv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45MYCodhmTPujBtREc1zuwWst4n3TqntkAzrNNHSCN7LAlwdAEfBDP7rYJUmd-2FUAVWYXUr7-2FwMIOflwbwdDLLfVZU6ujBBO5Q-2Bq5kP6ZWfgfVNep7Mo-2FDR02-2FDYsMLPFbrw-3D-3D))

Contrarian read: other analysts framed it as "only 5 to 10% of Apple's $21 billion TSMC business at best, adding roughly 5% to Intel's total revenue over several years... more strategic headline-driven by U.S. self-sufficiency goals than a fundamental business driver." ([CNBC Fast Money, Jun 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhIPVwR8Xv9q9VvJzigGgivq1lsuu5hKeSuKWNhCmsNDegQlyTH4TtHpai-2F3PhjXtzdk-2BGBg21E2Sej1ZWmbi1B0Q8-2FmXdBb9WeAxMhjxvnXQ-3D-3DqaZ5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45PGVZ35U-2BXYNd0NkWiXPPFMJNR3Sl3T8-2BevIB9divomHxzVLQ-2BSb2F5q9UA7M6JtwWLnj3bDxjJVIGwAvCpSUKp6jRC3CKQHUx0gvGBNSJUkp9mTpj4WXz8kbpgiMVJ6-2BQ-3D-3D)) Meanwhile TSMC shares rose ~5% on its long backlog and higher hyperscaler margins vs Apple work ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOib9rDU9Mx9O5KsqgCJ6F44BhnqGOBGrd0hBvpn-2Fwl4WC-2FE-2B5yKTfUk88Ai-2FiOngBE4hdKheTfCLmQMuH11rf-2BM-2B7drskwllbMr-2BqinnRXb7w-3D-3DRkcR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45EYGghdePRDL-2B8U8lpRcKJQqy9-2BjRgTqPXK1uDUQzQMzSS5vCPIKAviyq7VcK8vinpKluptF-2BnTbYNneyyCahrVlZBcxLMbfjbEV4zfby6gUZc7JHkRxkb-2B-2FpK3eQcMC5Q-3D-3D))

CJ Muse added that Intel's TSMC capacity is "wholeheartedly sold out," "We thought more business would go to Samsung, but clearly it's also gone to Intel." ([Squawk on the Street, Jun 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOido1-2BlTzqIOtRWYuqQd78auJYQOMtq-2FXSkB7fVFOVLBk4XnNFM-2Bc2ItYZ60iZnZSgenLGiJ1qABix38HbM7OwqTkbr-2Fxvy4vVp57wpS1w-2FFg-3D-3DSMsi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45DLYqejHq14GJGcTc-2B9fWbcDPr175sYoBi0DtxqzVMNJmacARZ1rF-2BivjN7TT7tVeFE0aqCXWPYpilMztOR1HaPUiKlUIy5bEHnxClWYtAglgMlVdvkVFM4sAGu7iopLQw-3D-3D))

## 5. Analog / Auto / Industrial Semis (TXN, ADI, MCHP, ON, NXPI, STM)

Texas Instruments CTO Dr. Ahmad Bai (2026-06-21) detailed TI's content expansion: a bulk acoustic wave (BAW) clock generator "getting adopted so rapidly. In data centers, they are now using our clock... for high-performance, low-jitter references." Plus on-chip isolation for EV motor control / grid / data-center power, automotive radar expanding into drones, and the "world's smallest MCU" (1.25mm²) with an embedded AI accelerator. He flagged the Silicon Labs acquisition as broadening IoT/wireless edge reach ([Boardroom Club, Jun 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhSQwsDQHSSW8qb2YHTr6sV03P6hsmqYOiNbPP8B0-2B6p-2B4fiipLu70EfxAwpZ9A5Sm2qSjOO6Un7NjiaSBk0fuLjatl9Ka5-2B7XUsevNbWsbOw-3D-3D48nk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45CVxx3jOObQzfE-2Fe2x-2Bjodg-2FVVF0fiIRCpxDffwBteFpS-2FX111ngiI-2B1LXl2ldj8DumGxbbCs-2FPK5N0LQWbmSqZaZndP2-2FXhAYbGkBa3TU3FHqNmv4izq-2Ba3uKYymTAvsw-3D-3D))

"Analog is having a moment." Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg: the shift to 800 VDC data-center power is "one of the largest content attachment growth stories for analog," thicker substrates, bigger chips, bigger MLCCs for rack power management ([The Circuit, Jun 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjIJZjjvuslw2LcxdacY6UG-2FxiXGMnH0pQ16aRuCsScvsKaoYs2ChNHwyt0HvwKS8u0UuabX3-2FzAOBn336ays71bZZbsUNifsFSLZ6DLjR-2FMw-3D-3DNUuh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45OKYBzFn-2Bt0M3OjZKko6A6mlBb0a4SRqJOPkte-2BtkT4HtJbM-2F-2BgHwgdtC5gwC9p55BCApjCwTaLVpLmws6TVdwoPgR-2FNtthKe4hTNl4zUVUg2YWZAfc1nOrDXkMKObPJkA-3D-3D))

Auto pain point: DRAM up ~450% in four months is costing GM, Ford, and Honda "hundreds of millions" each, with relief "unlikely until after 2027" and a risk that ADAS/autonomy features get pushed to higher trims ([Automotive News Daily Drive, Jun 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhwra0Zgj-2FJMwRmiwvRT3sZ0Hv4EvXQKWE-2BXLhoQsVCwx0jK6-2F33h6-2FGvc51I9OOnr6BGSVb9Xwxt27H0EgtShkYx648GmZxVGuUId31N2o3Q-3D-3DtaY__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45IepcRrwnDrJ5g63dwjD5IbmX-2Fd6VFbi-2BJFsM9LPQ4Cg8G-2B2ALnzlsSTM4r92n9R77zefvrpmghttrXEC0Kx-2BKi6mfBj-2Bfbq62l-2BSnng7FC3pG5pv6RfjVwGVXv2em03rQ-3D-3D)) (ADI, MCHP, ON, NXPI, STM had no dedicated coverage this week.)

## 6. China / Export Controls / Tariffs

Possible ASML EUV in China. The US Commerce Secretary reportedly raised concerns with ASML that an EUV machine "may have ended up in China." ASML's statement: "ASML has never shipped an EUV machine to China, nor have we shipped to China any component, module or equipment specially designed to be used in an EUV machine," though the statement doesn't address documented smuggling routes through Malaysia, Thailand, or Singapore ([Good Revenue News, Jun 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjiTzUniR8tZtGoWVVbiX9veo0p-2BNkwVAGx1SllZCEWGlXWxBCUBnZ-2FUV-2F9xTMvot4OAkwBVW1NU3Dm-2FzZeq00xHi-2F3J3YHLN4KAXD3l91aPw-3D-3DhzQK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45F-2BInKWLN3iT-2FhixJDvYBOxlJO7Qnd-2FFSPzOAKlEWCB0KEEfWnF0u0KDIbjiQDviRjpfr8kFxqsSukSSi9rVZdMT7iE7KasgzWt-2FBeKV8GrwNRTaKmlpC-2FxqHiNWPWqUbw-3D-3D))

Chinese open-source models as a demand risk to hyperscaler capex (and therefore memory), see Danny Moses in section 1 ([RiskReversal Pod, Jun 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxzH1dESpuj7aji3gj-2FWPU-2F-2FBojB-2BR10Kx5tsW3Y3nxvJcIBp5sqXlYgITZC4tf4ra8FlqBIGeoHA3qXr1x7H-2BZNwQq8D5TczTs-2Bt1JebiaA-3D-3Dh2Zp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45Lz7gcy4cTJl9cYnDRAmEHaWY7JKGriQ1OcHITkmecUi14sxuIoK7PO99NAH1bA073kIocLXJud1gE8Tl4Um6kgF8k2JErNk5-2B0y0ZFC7WhYlaYGOfe81N-2B9CIQ3v5BITA-3D-3D))

## 7. Earnings Reactions

| Ticker | Company | Reaction | Key Quote / Data Point | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MU | Micron | +15 to 19% | Q3 rev ~$41.5B vs ~$35.5B est; EPS $25.11 vs ~$20.37 est; GM 84.9% ("better than NVIDIA's"); Q4 rev guide ~$50B vs ~$43B; DRAM ASP +60% q/q, NAND +80% q/q; ~$100B contracted to 2029 | [Halftime Report, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5e0Xs7cbPUDl43EmAuZOdg6H9Cc9rQrlxvKBq5geCksc5QeTFvYlIitN-2FGLtbhlH6f9J2DJpLNlCeb7iZEBNum0sHioXeC8MmrWFHNP0C-2Fw-3D-3DW1zv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45AV23VM6DxQ14qoxjXUy1SgdcsGbLO6qjJ-2BlDBSXTaKQ3d6IL77YqK3H0ECtN8Agr-2ByAGlW7gHtHGgVaW-2FlUQ3bU6JBW-2F3u3mOz8d5Ly5aroguIYTlotjV-2BYgcpLrV8G4w-3D-3D), [Bloomberg Intelligence, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgIoqzu-2F20ZTMo3kbXxbfMP3QQBQVekk-2BzUPcDkzEcvjAsnvxTAWaVykaDxLBtFmvmeaxsMDceWxYax-2BRqu6v2qvUuUI9JX4mPCXMDMxzQHNg-3D-3DTNNU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45BM-2FyAPYOw8F8d6t0l97MfBpsWJlmHMs2uR9hafbvj2Az7J8xD9jOub-2BWoNCPwIWV7kkRI1Z-2Fj7QFnYJ-2FPQ5xFh5dIokhmJuGe6deONZhvdtVv3BhJueHmEfSpVU-2F-2FPyLA-3D-3D), [Squawk on the Street, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5XDbufSIvwALEzBcBMmdI7P5nPY7s1O3ZZoz5PsQMp4q2ukCZ9MvUHbA-2FdCnviuc8EmzUf-2BskDpgbS9TVmuFGHw4PrN-2BBi-2B-2BMRNhSt0UeQQ-3D-3D0avb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45MSitwlEEt2tXfwMCMM65iGqG-2B5NNfqoW0WUMmg0Xm2z6ZXDb8V7gXUXh6ULFoVY1r4-2B8cIB8D0g2nL-2Bdpyl2wJYx3yxk0EAM4eu2-2BOzLn08ifD9kAYO1emKRYCiQ8pyWA-3D-3D) |
| CRAY | Cerebras Systems | −10 to −15.5% | Record Q2 rev $191M; raised full-year gross-margin guide by ~10 pts; sold off on lockup expiration (~27.8M shares / ~15% unlocking). CEO Andrew Feldman: "We are the fastest inference provider on the planet by a factor of 15x or so." >$20B OpenAI contract; sidesteps HBM/CoWoS/3nm constraints via 5nm + SRAM | [Squawk on the Street, Jun 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi0kbJOOJAxd9WhVS0JDmC-2Fylx0JJZl5q5XFse80XGN7Ce0MwI-2FveLgsB9W5m5ivtgMXnmb82oSeZSQMqpYYWc6HhZkg8mDonDhxjoGi3s3UQ-3D-3D6WaK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45GW-2FswhS-2F8OFaXhgNAwbLu9a3Dcr6mG9FRfU1RO7Ff51Qcd5EhiijRM3gG5h0PMEb9Tz6Puf8uY-2BNVQ772Wz49i3B5YsljHbdTxs8c7hPYCPunjC-2Bf1dGOUAPTj-2FU1sZKA-3D-3D) |

## 8. M&A Chatter

No semiconductor-to-semiconductor M&A surfaced this week. The only chip-adjacent deal was SpaceX's reported ~$60B acquisition of coding-AI firm Cursor (vertical-stack integration with Colossus + xAI), which is not a semiconductor transaction. Treat the chip-M&A pipeline as quiet for this window.

## 9. Cyclicality / Inventory / Peak-Trough Debate

The Micron print crystallized a sharp split:

**Secular / "this time is different":**

- Jay Goldberg (Seaport): "This is not to be thought of as purely a commodity. This is an irreplaceable resource... the speed of AI accelerators, they basically get frozen without the memory component." ([Halftime Report, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5e0Xs7cbPUDl43EmAuZOdg6H9Cc9rQrlxvKBq5geCksc5QeTFvYlIitN-2FGLtbhlH6f9J2DJpLNlCeb7iZEBNum0sHioXeC8MmrWFHNP0C-2Fw-3D-3D_1Qt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45CI2xqnrcijmuJ53w-2B71kFUw0sQAUYp55UJhhEiz94Fy5xLnNGfeFQAF0TS1MTtw-2FtalvLFqqPaHAB5MYYR-2FBJSD8WsCCyQ4iRvpS3gSe0NC2Xi3AfK2B8J-2FIPkENZfsgg-3D-3D))
- Val Zlatev (MacroMinds): the peak memory need is "higher than any time before over the last 25 years... the peak is shallow for a while, two, three years... before there is a rollover in pricing." ([Monetary Matters, Jun 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BZ-2FbiAlCcdQYF0bsFVQ6pgfy2VpfJA-2BSnjfodH-2F-2BDSp-2BBLb9ZGFEj410hF6RueqKg66yeYzTUIwtVwXa4b6NJsGWxSS-2BUR1uN8PDkj4bzuw-3D-3DIdIl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45H5lsp9gfcUuimEA-2Bn8ebKQ0raDQyslpGXeXRFfShM3F7zbJ4iz8hSMNAT30f4NvVoIYtMZSTuHj4jK-2F-2B7OOKRnF5jUEdddY4m9ib9wJHQ-2FKkO1a7U-2FXkidceV51sxFE-2FA-3D-3D))
- Joe Terranova: "At worst we're in middle innings"; Gene Munster (Deepwater): buildout is "earlier than most investors expect." ([Bloomberg Daybreak, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg0fazPTYyIWU36YRNBRHvtBaC9kWaxLnBVPNYoq1bj5k1zKdnx5VOdJ9CKxbrxsklrTDT3Hcw7hHthdc0ugmF66LG1LbjlHFSvMtKXi0PLfg-3D-3DyeWk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45PkuQcbs-2FUt9cEjMiVYKzAeN539B69yNJrPr-2FsoI7jhh3jCT7ZPJ1NGMD-2FEVt6nY6O3GuQz8Vrj0AEfdnNf7fhYdzUMEc-2FFS-2FGHqOSHrPQ5nqPlHFXqdwMYD2OAf9Bw-2B6w-3D-3D))

**Still a cycle:**

- Josh Brown (Ritholtz): "Micron is achieving all of this on price, not on higher volumes... There comes a point at which the pricing power becomes so extreme that the people who use the product find workarounds. And when that happens, that's how this ends." ([Halftime Report, Jun 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5e0Xs7cbPUDl43EmAuZOdg6H9Cc9rQrlxvKBq5geCksc5QeTFvYlIitN-2FGLtbhlH6f9J2DJpLNlCeb7iZEBNum0sHioXeC8MmrWFHNP0C-2Fw-3D-3DpSXF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45NhxRN4HSHHYcTYw0Ld2B9jYg9OdKq1Twgryg-2FGvx2mUIwxaq6I74eM8-2BGxatxdJNtkYa5vg0qghNUkfKPxd-2BsSX0ilDwOn1d9-2BMOHYc8csRpNtpcPBrTSJoRtx5nz9uXw-3D-3D))
- Jim Chanos warns of the accounting disconnect (sellers recognize revenue now; hyperscalers capitalize the same dollars) and draws the 1998 to 2001 analogy, S&P operating profits +30% then −40% ([Monetary Matters, Jun 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BZ-2FbiAlCcdQYF0bsFVQ6pgfy2VpfJA-2BSnjfodH-2F-2BDSp-2BBLb9ZGFEj410hF6RueqKg66yeYzTUIwtVwXa4b6NJsGWxSS-2BUR1uN8PDkj4bzuw-3D-3DDViC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUZxQQam8HxrF8zeQYqswDUeQigJdXpQSJF5lQFtZJ45BMGx2yK-2Ff0q7YI-2BvTvHO7dO5otKfYwPT2NIxVsQu2E9pbAioJj7AiV7Jt16Oq297dhLt7D5viMIFT6pEEESh8WdN4Ak-2BU9LxIj5YqWJf-2BDeaE2vdTy8IJStbJdT9u-2BLfg-3D-3D))

## 10. China Indigenization (SMIC, CXMT, Huawei)

No substantive podcast coverage of SMIC, CXMT, or Huawei chip self-sufficiency surfaced in this week's window. China content this week was confined to the ASML EUV-smuggling concern (section 6) and Chinese open-source models as a capex risk (section 1). Flagging this as a genuine gap rather than an absence of developments, worth a dedicated web/China-channel sweep if this thread matters to positioning.

## What I'm Watching Next Week

SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR debut (~July 10). A ~$29B raise priced into a euphoric memory tape will be a real-time read on whether public markets will fund the next HBM capacity wave, and a sentiment gauge for the whole memory complex.

Read-through to Samsung and Nvidia. With Micron sold out to 2027 and HBM ~80% Korean, watch for Samsung HBM qualification news and any Nvidia commentary on memory allocation/cost as a gross-margin variable.

The "uncontracted 50%." Bloomberg Intelligence flagged that Micron's floor pricing protects ~half its book; track spot DRAM/NAND prints and the Kearney-style indices for the first sign of new 2027 to 2028 supply softening prices.

Apple price increases as a demand-elasticity test. If MacBook/iPad/iPhone price hikes (17 to 25%) dent unit demand, that's the first real-world "workaround" Josh Brown warned about.

Intel Foundry / Apple partnership confirmation and 18A yield data points, the swing factor between BofA's "multiple billions of upside" and the skeptics' "5% of revenue, headline-driven" framing.