# Micron's Blowout Reframes Memory as a Scarcity Asset as the AI Bubble Debate Sharpens - Weekly Semis & AI Infrastructure Podcast Recap - Week of June 28, 2026

> Semiconductors and AI infrastructure podcast recap for the week of Jun 22-28, 2026. Micron's fiscal Q3 blowout reframed memory as a scarcity asset, OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled the Jalapeño custom inference chip, and the AI-bubble chorus grew louder over roughly $700B of hyperscaler capex.

## Weekly Semis & AI Infrastructure Podcast Recap

### Week of June 28, 2026: Micron's Blowout Reframes Memory as a Scarcity Asset as the AI Bubble Debate Sharpens

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**Window: Jun 22-28, 2026**

## Top of mind this week

Micron's fiscal Q3 blowout on June 24 was the gravitational center of the week: revenue near $41.5B (roughly 4x year-over-year), gross margins of ~85% (versus ~39% a year ago and a historical peak near 60%), and 14 to 16 long-term strategic agreements locking in ~$100B of minimum guaranteed revenue each through 2029 to 2030. The story radiated outward: memory inflation forced Apple, Microsoft and automakers to raise prices, while the central debate hardened into "structural re-rating versus cyclical peak." Running alongside it were two other big arcs: OpenAI and Broadcom's "Jalapeño" custom inference chip (a hedge away from NVIDIA) and a louder AI-bubble chorus warning that ~$700B of hyperscaler capex is producing an "earnings bubble."

## Dominant themes

1. **The memory super-cycle and the secular-vs-cyclical fight.** Micron printed records: EPS $25.11 (+1,215% YoY), Q4 guided to $49-51B revenue and $30-32 EPS, DRAM ASPs +60% and NAND +80%, data-center revenue jumping from ~$1.5B annually to ~$11.5B in a single quarter, driven by price not volume. Bulls (Evercore's Julian Emanuel, Susquehanna's Mehdi Hosseini) argue take-or-pay contracts through 2029 turn memory into an "irreplaceable resource" ([Closing Bell](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiz-2FwLrZ2bH6AgzSxRaFy6npfEiTPpMudb6A91kYODSQ0lWwZ3rK-2BiAJUMA-2FynBux846Bzl6he-2FDR0AxaYPwJpCissCA4sTP9ImDeolTIvj8A-3D-3DUV2b_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQagRoXehaUBVMwD9xsJD1-2FZ10QvLVqXhESzDpQC0h4ob0yNPaFq-2BlxhOEAbU4mCF0vo0lqdDQqVWEZMSTpuUG-2BABt-2BqS0AV3bZN1f3g35kgySwm8wyEgJXLpjV-2F-2BZ6f254g-3D-3D)); bears (Morningstar's Will Kerwin) note the stock trades ~2x a $455 fair value and that six memory makers will add supply into late 2027 to 2028 ([The Morning Filter](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FkO4Y50P8Td8hGuohr36ns-2FEG2ncUIFJ77RewukagXdyuAVxP65ReYSTR4MW-2FT-2BhYzxRjDN3bdcYXj27r4RtqL-2FpVr4tdXr5UKhiT52TP1g-3D-3D0Hqk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQanopDCo0zVaJOCl3NdSAEoSWLtV-2BkXDvw7GUvYE82gFRAtbpYl3APZgYVvm9NxXwHRKDfKsihs3QAPc5vFYvKmTLYokOEQ-2BFCtJZjyczBdEysK3ovKl0-2B7ZOJlUxKHwSrA-3D-3D)).

2. **Memory inflation hits consumers and OEMs.** Tim Cook confirmed memory costs are the primary driver of Apple price hikes; reported increases span MacBook/iPad ($100-500), iPhone 18 Pro (potentially $1,299), Mac Studio M3 Ultra (+$1,300), Vision Pro (+$200), Xbox ($100-150). 128GB DDR5 reportedly went from ~$800 to ~$2,900 in a year ([Motley Fool Hidden Gems](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgNJf0p7rIE1piSO3kj1C0BItgV-2FXgxzQQapnMr8p-2Bn1a7HznUfeLy4jUXRtxpL-2BdiWwM83Rn5EvEsb8-2FK6ESJzS-2B1zvTF0nBAfUXaz-2B0h37Q-3D-3DGMWt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQamqqH6E988bgjhp2UM7TStO95IT-2B-2FRjQEnk-2Bl8vedDXR8jS2L1-2F66QUwx76RLFG4LBpYHAP4WJXHqORQPlOvlGwUOxCkvZHD8-2BF3y-2Bmj41gcGu72QnfxxIFfUgyb-2Fo4eDA-3D-3D)); GM, Ford and Honda each flagged hundreds of millions in losses from the DRAM crunch ([Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhwra0Zgj-2FJMwRmiwvRT3sZ0Hv4EvXQKWE-2BXLhoQsVCwx0jK6-2F33h6-2FGvc51I9OOnr6BGSVb9Xwxt27H0EgtShkYx648GmZxVGuUId31N2o3Q-3D-3D6VKA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQamVToAbeZvVKlZBeB2f-2F5IyRPz-2FTMibFUWJRgvj2s4n1AXry-2F1YPxdIRbg62LSP5ZuCv8gMYgixaAVQPxO4xDpYhA-2BEYkajT5BmuTSB7UdegKvPtFdX0v6H1OQU-2FnvO2cw-3D-3D)). Apple is reportedly exploring Chinese suppliers YMTC and CXMT at up to 30% discounts.

3. **Custom silicon accelerates (OpenAI-Broadcom "Jalapeño").** A from-scratch LLM-inference ASIC designed in ~9 months with Broadcom (and MediaTek), targeting gigawatt-scale deployment later this year, with claims of ~50% lower cost / better performance-per-watt versus current GPUs and 8 HBM stacks. Broadcom's Hock Tan: "every frontier lab will develop custom chips" ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgm0CU5AxH-2B3G-2Fmo6nn8xBJoWivD2hwOnDtPsg9LXeNlam0zVy2NKrLO6ZhBt05qqXli2mHDqjF0dCMqt9BbDlK62Xq77YaxiTrTLljDb3dWA-3D-3DBp5T_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQahk0hwKPYp2XYrVI5LheLB5roQU-2BZltkhYh3vG2SeI96YY0gBbhhsx9Dj5slku7dQXD-2Fs-2Bn1W0M4m8CvrfaiRI8UUD1OeosByBBRqKhVMgiVx7X4l6IihuJ5uQBkWNVqWA-3D-3D)). Read as an inference-cost hedge against NVIDIA rather than a frontal assault.

4. **Hyperscaler capex and the power bottleneck.** 2026 spend estimates clustered around ~$700B (Amazon ~$200B, Alphabet ~$175-185B, Meta ~$115-135B, Microsoft ~$110-120B), +60% YoY, the largest concentrated capital sprint since the railroads. Power is "the gating issue": Microsoft's 20-year Chevron natural-gas deal anchors the 2.67GW Project Kilby in West Texas (GE Vernova turbines), with more hyperscaler power deals expected before Labor Day ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi55otd9eceDAcRRqAQXCNFpmw8mblR5LlsD3WTs41OqI9wRCCOby1jnQaiO2EGV7dN53SRUGvgfnl3hxy0rd6kXbvG-2BOhzpZarMGgDUi16-2Bg-3D-3Dk2YE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQapnDsnVD88txdpUPzAh-2FaKIoQnJKE4E6mI4akL4rGmb7zonqWyqr9WwOJTWGRSx0VQ-2BCr9oHfN054wfyVEvncPMlyy1VWmrNtzGiNqCVGPXvXi7wgOOdJddixoJr5cAJMw-3D-3D)). Financing is increasingly off-balance-sheet (SPVs, private credit; Meta ceded ~80% equity in Hyperion to Blue Owl).

5. **Networking, optics and the "picks-and-shovels" trade.** Optical interconnect is framed as the next bottleneck as clusters outscale copper (silicon photonics ~5-8 pJ/bit vs 15-25 for electrical); Coherent (NVIDIA-backed, $2B) and Lumentum are levered to a 2028 buildout ([Chip Stock Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjoUN2nuwqiT56LxLEEREYz18BaSQkWFnWyTxN0pgV7OvwdTG2F-2BDtQcL9qmiDRtEFJUfUbf8UyLggtUhRh3SgFlUZAxEYt49oZUFMpv7m1Ng-3D-3DrCBB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQair7KJx8LXGfkAdgsB4zPLe05Z3qEBZrr6WXtV5fSxtvfVSEWmP9lAaoYWExjcUnria3sZPzHNXCT9l8GK4orWARlrp3rCenU2pKd3TRRQvNYd0MZvQHHFARC0yI-2Fjc22w-3D-3D)). Coatue's Philippe Laffont and GMO favor equipment suppliers (ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLA) that win regardless of which chip design prevails ([Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOijR2VIgRMRF-2Bu4Q7HML15xlM22ko63s5ww7wCy2-2FUJFDB-2F8ovj0-2BmzPMq3rIBw1ZxVUibIT9ff05oOljJi2tUNinVcsvEfrYQpzobFGVNbJQ-3D-3Dp3RM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQamJugQhfddX1m6BdmR366vtftKE6tRsmEvobjgT-2BRTqRqpVUM2T0St3M8-2BhQuYnBtUdRxtyBsGCjO-2BqjcIxQ02VOWsFd75CK-2BNpIJzHUpmUAavuJ-2BiiAPa0FeLEfsnLDzw-3D-3D)).

6. **The AI-bubble debate got louder.** BCA's Peter Berezin calls it an "earnings bubble" (hyperscalers heading toward $2.5T of AI assets and ~$500B annual depreciation by 2030) ([NAB Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgHlDxSdVM46-2B146o8HdsPS0GE-2FaTEtvzyGAarcdTliMh7CAL3r45NNLA7Ky4D3taxDZpGh-2F1vfBzGawnaCf6RlYIBNDzaoFCksGa6rMqLYVw-3D-3DKbGo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQak7tySiGmiCeXiWZFtigVCBrlkv57evgLZMA4cPquVBL2JyHGUh3gwydffUCa4GV994cEO1-2F6xSPf2nf0of05edQaZ2l1g4QaOYvUqj1cpRaCkLr5FgTVlaOaBm50-2FgkHw-3D-3D)); Lance Roberts warns "the blow-up is going to be spectacular," noting ~$760B of capex announced vs ~$211B actually expensed ([Thoughtful Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgoYSfwqbc3ICViDqieXs8KXYuUj6UFRLakD88PbbMXCe6L4IcjUS6TAejjwMmurmhi82CcP6iYpj5BnxPe-2Fdqw6wVXiXR98lcUV6TQSJmTaA-3D-3DjLPZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQajPq4NBIHoMaRHNmF-2F8qbRaO6Kps3xGmJssjMJaBd2llHeF3RAIIQkLcWCA08xAVTrm11vsQQ1g8o1N1GobGyGy2yGqQo-2BmHqc11d8dq2wvGI-2Bc-2Bf9SYOOdc1f8s5hNDjQ-3D-3D)); GMO likens $700B (2.2% of US GDP) to late-1990s fiber. Counterpoint: today's leaders (NVIDIA, Alphabet) have real cash flows, unlike the dot-com era.

## Key debates

- **Memory: structural re-rating vs cyclical peak.** Emanuel and Hosseini (beat even the bull case; multi-year visibility from $100B contracts) and Pomp guest Jordi Visser (Micron to $2T market cap within a year) versus Morningstar's Will Kerwin (2x fair value, supply response coming 2027 to 2028) and The Real Investment Show (memory lacks NVIDIA's GPU monopoly moat; 80%+ margins attract competition, per [The Real Investment Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiHcC3hZ-2FrGUbB-2BhNezkpBBGzF6pc1Te3a-2BpEoyM5aFgSjNUZTbiNjdJ5rTelTrj15xGgscuIllZJi1bZ83BdIGKiRcv8-2BBzqino6SrEiH1sw-3D-3Dk-a-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQaia8QQfSPnaZF9Fvt8Za5btdFDEvYZOe-2BW8u4aKBwsuMVKO0jw4nPrDdJu-2FbGV-2Fp7PA8wD5hV70naqEf4vIjqRS0W9Y4RMv3O4Y0O2-2B6bHXEEiKPMARX1E2GXqkNPsaiYg-3D-3D)). Bloomberg Businessweek framed the exact question: TSMC-like re-rating or cyclical peak?
- **Jalapeño: NVIDIA threat or just inference cost optimization?** Bloomberg Tech / Squawk lean bullish on the custom-silicon shift; TechCrunch's Equity and 20VC lean toward "hedge, not replace," with 20VC questioning whether vertical integration distracts OpenAI ("made in a different era of abundance").
- **Hyperscaler capex: durable demand vs negative FCF / cheaper models.** Wall Street Unplugged and FinPod see a durable $700B+ cycle; Fast Money flagged that Microsoft could cut from $185B toward $120B if cheaper models (DeepSeek V4 at ~$0.87/M tokens vs Anthropic ~$50/M) compress economics; TFTC argues hyperscalers are falling behind frontier labs despite the spend.
- **NVIDIA: cheap or part of the bubble?** Laffont calls NVIDIA undervalued at 13-14x forward ([Squawk Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhCoOoeWLi83mY9iZ-2BEtc2-2BUjQHhuCv-2BR7gebQt10jxalHaCUJ-2BhvMWOhNfU9Gj4c6jY8QubT5UINGqWi6TRdzf-2FgXd4AGOH6JV8XW6-2FwFZQw-3D-3DVbsS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQapypysEYd-2Bmfedmy2UMqx-2FwQdjTi7ZoETEL1da2jJIf7TMZ4UdZegisLgVXGMLdISz9rXiWywlO5DlMB-2BuzR8R6faGAO9E03fCE1oFz-2BE-2BGIuEjrYUdXp9E5b2ltQ-2B-2B-2Bsw-3D-3D)); Berezin and technician Gareth Soloway see it as the centerpiece of the bubble / in a technical downtrend.
- **China supply chain.** Grace Shao (Odd Lots) on Chinese labs re-engineering DeepSeek V4 onto Huawei chips for independence ([Odd Lots](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgFTdvYPGzChcYJjUqEB27iEirmod6YFMXx3LyRUDQmy-2BIlCauaYC-2FZIXcd5dxfQ8cTWzOdpjd0DLSHx1GLpqpdYKjFjxW1HC7p98yWF7tDyg-3D-3DcoXm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQauYS3JfFux5-2FooFy-2F0bAQb5QoBUIGNCX7hwTmOkJph0bu4tQejTNE5r1ONGO0aF0qcPnZl-2B-2B-2F7C1wZfKZML0xrOkcwJbbgvrdYujzumEgaDVF7Y5omPHUaCc-2BInuSiuFXg-3D-3D)); alleged ASML EUV smuggling (denied); Apple courting YMTC/CXMT, all pressure the incumbent memory and equipment narrative.

## Stocks discussed with bull/bear angle

| Ticker | Direction | Source / Speaker | Argument |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MU | Bull | [Closing Bell](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiz-2FwLrZ2bH6AgzSxRaFy6npfEiTPpMudb6A91kYODSQ0lWwZ3rK-2BiAJUMA-2FynBux846Bzl6he-2FDR0AxaYPwJpCissCA4sTP9ImDeolTIvj8A-3D-3DUV2b_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQagRoXehaUBVMwD9xsJD1-2FZ10QvLVqXhESzDpQC0h4ob0yNPaFq-2BlxhOEAbU4mCF0vo0lqdDQqVWEZMSTpuUG-2BABt-2BqS0AV3bZN1f3g35kgySwm8wyEgJXLpjV-2F-2BZ6f254g-3D-3D) (Emanuel, Evercore; Hosseini, Susquehanna) | Beat even the bull case; "memory wall" + 16 agreements ~$100B each give multi-year revenue visibility |
| MU | Bull | [Bloomberg Businessweek](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhf06dMB0uOU9YqYOOaMlFYnjD3qDMnx11qprDjWu4iP4Np8ZtLZ72ypXIkfmyEtGZLBMRE4bS9y6NSXYI1M34YGkEs-2FGLI-2BvkBbyq0B4fihQ-3D-3DAKMF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQatHm4sabfwhyZvli-2BWYK5qIOUSVZm6KbKD-2BjX4-2F7BHj-2F6UnNePBJMTy1qw2eZ0nhvci-2BiIglJxkQ-2FJzPCjVb2YJeVB2y0YFvMyi6sF7Vlj7kB-2BP-2B0cH99v00nj7uwcxNLg-3D-3D) | Q4 guide $50B vs $43.2B; 86% GM; HBM4 shipping in volume; lower-power HBM edge |
| MU | Bear | [The Morning Filter](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FkO4Y50P8Td8hGuohr36ns-2FEG2ncUIFJ77RewukagXdyuAVxP65ReYSTR4MW-2FT-2BhYzxRjDN3bdcYXj27r4RtqL-2FpVr4tdXr5UKhiT52TP1g-3D-3D0Hqk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQanopDCo0zVaJOCl3NdSAEoSWLtV-2BkXDvw7GUvYE82gFRAtbpYl3APZgYVvm9NxXwHRKDfKsihs3QAPc5vFYvKmTLYokOEQ-2BFCtJZjyczBdEysK3ovKl0-2B7ZOJlUxKHwSrA-3D-3D) (Will Kerwin, Morningstar) | Trades ~2x $455 fair value; six makers add supply late 2027 to 2028, cyclical pressure returns |
| MU | Bear/cautious | [The Real Investment Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiHcC3hZ-2FrGUbB-2BhNezkpBBGzF6pc1Te3a-2BpEoyM5aFgSjNUZTbiNjdJ5rTelTrj15xGgscuIllZJi1bZ83BdIGKiRcv8-2BBzqino6SrEiH1sw-3D-3Dk-a-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQaia8QQfSPnaZF9Fvt8Za5btdFDEvYZOe-2BW8u4aKBwsuMVKO0jw4nPrDdJu-2FbGV-2Fp7PA8wD5hV70naqEf4vIjqRS0W9Y4RMv3O4Y0O2-2B6bHXEEiKPMARX1E2GXqkNPsaiYg-3D-3D) | Memory is cyclical and lacks NVIDIA's monopoly moat; 80%+ margins invite competition |
| AAPL | Bear | [Motley Fool Hidden Gems](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgNJf0p7rIE1piSO3kj1C0BItgV-2FXgxzQQapnMr8p-2Bn1a7HznUfeLy4jUXRtxpL-2BdiWwM83Rn5EvEsb8-2FK6ESJzS-2B1zvTF0nBAfUXaz-2B0h37Q-3D-3DGMWt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQamqqH6E988bgjhp2UM7TStO95IT-2B-2FRjQEnk-2Bl8vedDXR8jS2L1-2F66QUwx76RLFG4LBpYHAP4WJXHqORQPlOvlGwUOxCkvZHD8-2BF3y-2Bmj41gcGu72QnfxxIFfUgyb-2Fo4eDA-3D-3D) | Tim Cook: memory costs primary culprit in price hikes; DDR5 128GB ~$800 to ~$2,900 YoY |
| AVGO | Bull | [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgm0CU5AxH-2B3G-2Fmo6nn8xBJoWivD2hwOnDtPsg9LXeNlam0zVy2NKrLO6ZhBt05qqXli2mHDqjF0dCMqt9BbDlK62Xq77YaxiTrTLljDb3dWA-3D-3DBp5T_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQahk0hwKPYp2XYrVI5LheLB5roQU-2BZltkhYh3vG2SeI96YY0gBbhhsx9Dj5slku7dQXD-2Fs-2Bn1W0M4m8CvrfaiRI8UUD1OeosByBBRqKhVMgiVx7X4l6IihuJ5uQBkWNVqWA-3D-3D) (Hock Tan; Greg Brockman) | Jalapeño design win; "every frontier lab will develop custom chips"; gigawatt-scale deployment |
| NVDA | Bull | [Squawk Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhCoOoeWLi83mY9iZ-2BEtc2-2BUjQHhuCv-2BR7gebQt10jxalHaCUJ-2BhvMWOhNfU9Gj4c6jY8QubT5UINGqWi6TRdzf-2FgXd4AGOH6JV8XW6-2FwFZQw-3D-3DVbsS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQapypysEYd-2Bmfedmy2UMqx-2FwQdjTi7ZoETEL1da2jJIf7TMZ4UdZegisLgVXGMLdISz9rXiWywlO5DlMB-2BuzR8R6faGAO9E03fCE1oFz-2BE-2BGIuEjrYUdXp9E5b2ltQ-2B-2B-2Bsw-3D-3D) (Philippe Laffont, Coatue) | Trades 13-14x forward; undervalued despite custom-silicon competition |
| NVDA | Bear | [NAB Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgHlDxSdVM46-2B146o8HdsPS0GE-2FaTEtvzyGAarcdTliMh7CAL3r45NNLA7Ky4D3taxDZpGh-2F1vfBzGawnaCf6RlYIBNDzaoFCksGa6rMqLYVw-3D-3DKbGo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQak7tySiGmiCeXiWZFtigVCBrlkv57evgLZMA4cPquVBL2JyHGUh3gwydffUCa4GV994cEO1-2F6xSPf2nf0of05edQaZ2l1g4QaOYvUqj1cpRaCkLr5FgTVlaOaBm50-2FgkHw-3D-3D) (Peter Berezin, BCA) | "Earnings bubble"; when depreciation hits hyperscalers, GPU demand slows |
| NVDA | Bear (China) | [Odd Lots](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgFTdvYPGzChcYJjUqEB27iEirmod6YFMXx3LyRUDQmy-2BIlCauaYC-2FZIXcd5dxfQ8cTWzOdpjd0DLSHx1GLpqpdYKjFjxW1HC7p98yWF7tDyg-3D-3DcoXm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQauYS3JfFux5-2FooFy-2F0bAQb5QoBUIGNCX7hwTmOkJph0bu4tQejTNE5r1ONGO0aF0qcPnZl-2B-2B-2F7C1wZfKZML0xrOkcwJbbgvrdYujzumEgaDVF7Y5omPHUaCc-2BInuSiuFXg-3D-3D) (Grace Shao) | China deliberately reducing NVIDIA dependence; DeepSeek V4 re-engineered onto Huawei chips |
| QCOM | Bull | [Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOizyBlkCQXiV8C-2BHVPb2OogSOnOR0VnGPii1jNIdMborAqUZe-2FSWHeDQ6761DUvGiwxQwvkVxwnCjtVpteFT5IyidOhr6-2BmloaVNg8VWrcXMQ-3D-3Dzae8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQakKssIj55LTpb4alcUvN3RxQu8sByTtqpw2xtfqVq-2BbDHr1JxOYMsWLLwa0mLC7w-2BDBXQFCjcFo19MYBH258rpPOWS236M0w3QKg67XY4qpkn9HAkuv9sLOYIrnVTn1-2BaA-3D-3D) (QCOM CFO & COO) | $15B 2029 data-center target (from $5B); Meta and Microsoft as anchor custom-chip customers |
| MSFT | Bull | [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi55otd9eceDAcRRqAQXCNFpmw8mblR5LlsD3WTs41OqI9wRCCOby1jnQaiO2EGV7dN53SRUGvgfnl3hxy0rd6kXbvG-2BOhzpZarMGgDUi16-2Bg-3D-3Dk2YE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQapnDsnVD88txdpUPzAh-2FaKIoQnJKE4E6mI4akL4rGmb7zonqWyqr9WwOJTWGRSx0VQ-2BCr9oHfN054wfyVEvncPMlyy1VWmrNtzGiNqCVGPXvXi7wgOOdJddixoJr5cAJMw-3D-3D) | 2.67GW Project Kilby secured via 20-yr Chevron gas deal; behind-the-meter cost advantage |
| MSFT | Bear/caution | [Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgO2Is-2FHMyI2SRK6nKo4riRtBRKjdnlf5z-2F1G1Z4hF5iuKNV-2BcBx5iusuWue-2FVm4kFJfM4e7AykIBECOP0PoI1bHAaoZBcxG54i6LTwrV9vCw-3D-3DtowN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQalUpIyYGF2PTwEZkf4ISZoohmevqGgFWWGSzatyu2v6DvBJFNleGcyYSSiJHkYyIEWSo3PkJzaH1egEREBVeRVetzhKYJNMzLBP6YMu9UNLdGF5CRwzjUWlBN0TSQEkRyw-3D-3D) (GMO) | $200B DC spend; unsustainable earnings bubble as depreciation lags capex |
| GEV | Bull | [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi55otd9eceDAcRRqAQXCNFpmw8mblR5LlsD3WTs41OqI9wRCCOby1jnQaiO2EGV7dN53SRUGvgfnl3hxy0rd6kXbvG-2BOhzpZarMGgDUi16-2Bg-3D-3DCdNc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQanyLcTuooB0TpijwQSzLrraB7PJQ2-2BSJu6gNLohdaHTvW8xfO5l0l3VUkxJVddjRhnAoQEDiaaZ-2BHDfyOPcF34j240x6mt9KWQFWc9mId7QeHbSPs8Sec48f7kIw-2FubE-2BA-3D-3D) | Turbine supplier for Microsoft's 2.67GW Project Kilby |
| CVX | Bull | [Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYmhYxoxeYZM1xea4BLpipVPaes9zuWZ2sAY74fYQd-2FerRGQ5FgZGFLGpHMajeh-2Fx8-2FSvHFx-2FndTNoPsC-2BZ76G0gWX7vCA2EGDUMebpUxKbQ-3D-3D2bwz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQaqDZLKWCXuM3BHpIZKf0dkpLBQ7mJTzT8HqXymWx63yd11DkkWL4SYjUd4yiq205T96qrJCALJqbMAbXz0aapdHhbnu3fyR6ekrZjQdykSMoUDXZ1IjN1hliZrVKleNFDA-3D-3D) | Monetizing stranded Permian gas via 20-year Microsoft power contract |
| COHR | Bull | [Chip Stock Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjoUN2nuwqiT56LxLEEREYz18BaSQkWFnWyTxN0pgV7OvwdTG2F-2BDtQcL9qmiDRtEFJUfUbf8UyLggtUhRh3SgFlUZAxEYt49oZUFMpv7m1Ng-3D-3DrCBB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQair7KJx8LXGfkAdgsB4zPLe05Z3qEBZrr6WXtV5fSxtvfVSEWmP9lAaoYWExjcUnria3sZPzHNXCT9l8GK4orWARlrp3rCenU2pKd3TRRQvNYd0MZvQHHFARC0yI-2Fjc22w-3D-3D) | NVIDIA-backed ($2B); InP transceivers as optical networking bottleneck eases |
| LITE | Bull | [The Deep Edge Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiwZ6GuDClMQXDGbfz0tsdbrATppvOcFon81Fmn2KkKK7oegImsmLFygzAJ15OS5NbwJ1D3m5xvgeD-2FdhCsz3CmfVWViYqSkMMlJJG8BBAG3g-3D-3DG2Gd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQamW54sWxAPhRi10z1hnioTYTqslk-2FdX9Em6eBKX3gCcaZ05-2BEWVhMXm6bGtdfZH0gFPzGsJ2k9F6jucT4iftmkI-2FYKvMuDfNBKaLV3vU0OjFz8m-2BVS9jCnKXZKXaHsrUMw-3D-3D) | Silicon photonics 3-5x more power-efficient than copper; optical is the scaling bottleneck |
| AMAT / LRCX / KLAC / ASML | Bull | [Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOijR2VIgRMRF-2Bu4Q7HML15xlM22ko63s5ww7wCy2-2FUJFDB-2F8ovj0-2BmzPMq3rIBw1ZxVUibIT9ff05oOljJi2tUNinVcsvEfrYQpzobFGVNbJQ-3D-3Dp3RM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQamJugQhfddX1m6BdmR366vtftKE6tRsmEvobjgT-2BRTqRqpVUM2T0St3M8-2BhQuYnBtUdRxtyBsGCjO-2BqjcIxQ02VOWsFd75CK-2BNpIJzHUpmUAavuJ-2BiiAPa0FeLEfsnLDzw-3D-3D) (Ian Smith) | "Picks and shovels" win regardless of which AI chip design prevails |
| TSM | Bull | [BBC Business Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjGNn7OAJbp945-2BULJFELiyNT2TdsKHB9OUr5ujNrvQ2VbV-2Fv9RArCcpY7gseL06lnSHKkzfymWDNwjBXKQtrtRZ4iA2QewwwugdHMIjGE4vA-3D-3D4YvA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQaiw8SO-2BsFrAHpWEu7bYsIHKJ5x7U0KGrDTXmwvDyqGGs68epua3JRcuJup7By6aShHP4VHHi5-2Bm53z-2B7E0IG-2Bhp-2B8X0MIoPUBKBn3K8pyFI3taQqJPepImOqGFGrWmj7XA-3D-3D) | 70% foundry share, 90%+ of advanced AI chips; structural chokepoint |
| GM / F / HMC | Bear | [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhwra0Zgj-2FJMwRmiwvRT3sZ0Hv4EvXQKWE-2BXLhoQsVCwx0jK6-2F33h6-2FGvc51I9OOnr6BGSVb9Xwxt27H0EgtShkYx648GmZxVGuUId31N2o3Q-3D-3D6VKA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQamVToAbeZvVKlZBeB2f-2F5IyRPz-2FTMibFUWJRgvj2s4n1AXry-2F1YPxdIRbg62LSP5ZuCv8gMYgixaAVQPxO4xDpYhA-2BEYkajT5BmuTSB7UdegKvPtFdX0v6H1OQU-2FnvO2cw-3D-3D) (John Bozzella) | DRAM +450% in 4 months; each reporting hundreds of millions in losses |
| DELL / HPE | Bear | [Business of Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhCUpNZzHdsT-2Bo1r-2BtdGkxKR5CbyL2ZG6h8RIi-2F-2B-2FFbc-2BsvcLyoqCkiZg9sKY1Q1o8pChA66GOWEovnEBqC7UWicG-2F-2B86gCoju0AfeaRPCMJQ-3D-3DZI0R_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQah0NtE49MWmUedO625GOuTmAO6O48Cd2AKHSlAhScsLnVtdf6-2FVb2xEvsSpSXByU-2FHvichJ8VQwIFLTvgvc6UnCmQLxFava34GhjPJllePikv4HQsGMTx9rjomevbE1QNg-3D-3D) | Traditional x86 server market constrained by memory shortage; margin pressure |
| Cerebras | Bear | [The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgDYlOD-2B3yCJYAd-2Bzl-2FWFffM7luslOlWHJUw4aZ-2BwOeU6xAeVQGBFg2ZpMIDMcLut8KLYX9p3KwaxBVPpzX1ipnVolLtW66Efdt-2BHn7yHpacg-3D-3DLzzb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQasjq2sfk-2F2c3Ihu4ZFdIg4oAFFpsDwG6Nl98-2FMubEBHDyKqZczaFTsPB52SFAi0I4dJ-2FqGbDvqnSTYF-2FPWp6IVU64iYDNQyzDTG5fdk6G0kJY6SeRFpraUFNqwrXpe3GSg-3D-3D) (Zaid Admani) | Fell 10%+ despite beat; operating margins -28 to -32%; 37% GM vs NVIDIA 70%+ |
| Semis (broad) | Bear | [Thoughtful Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgoYSfwqbc3ICViDqieXs8KXYuUj6UFRLakD88PbbMXCe6L4IcjUS6TAejjwMmurmhi82CcP6iYpj5BnxPe-2Fdqw6wVXiXR98lcUV6TQSJmTaA-3D-3DjLPZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbV2VdQo1kapWNPYltW1iat59NfoEgOJA0pb1qno-2BVEQajPq4NBIHoMaRHNmF-2F8qbRaO6Kps3xGmJssjMJaBd2llHeF3RAIIQkLcWCA08xAVTrm11vsQQ1g8o1N1GobGyGy2yGqQo-2BmHqc11d8dq2wvGI-2Bc-2Bf9SYOOdc1f8s5hNDjQ-3D-3D) (Lance Roberts) | Parabolic cyclical bubble; $760B capex announced vs $211B expensed; "blow-up will be spectacular" |