# Warsh's Hawkish Reset and the Front-End Repricing - The Fed & the Front End - Week of June 22-29, 2026 > Kevin Warsh's first FOMC held rates but flipped the front end from cuts to near-certain hikes, and the podcast tape split hard between hawks and doves. Our synthesis for the week of June 22-29, 2026. ## The Fed & the Front End ### Week of June 22-29, 2026: Warsh's Hawkish Reset and the Front-End Repricing --- # The Fed & the Front End *Week of June 22–29, 2026* The front end did something this week it hasn't done in years: it priced the Fed to hike. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC produced a unanimous hold at 3.50–3.75%, but a stripped-down statement, a refusal to submit his own dot, and a press conference read as deliberately hawkish flipped fed funds futures from cuts to near-certain tightening. The podcast tape was wall-to-wall Fed, and the conversation has shifted: it is no longer cuts-versus-holds, it is holds-versus-hikes. ## TL;DR - **A hawkish hold.** The Warsh Fed held but tore up the Powell-era communication model, no forward guidance, no chair dot, and five new reform task forces. Markets called it the most hawkish FOMC reaction in the 2-year in roughly 30 years. - **The front end repriced violently.** Futures now imply a ~100% chance of a hike by October and a ~72% chance of a second by year-end, more hawkish than the Fed's own projections. - **Both sides are loud.** Hawks (Dudley, Goolsbee, JPM rates) argue policy isn't even restrictive and services inflation is sticky; doves (BMO, El-Erian, JPM Asset Management) counter that oil is unwinding, May was the inflation peak, and the actual voters skew 8-3 against hikes. ## What's new **1. The hawkish hold and the dot plot.** The committee held unanimously but revised its 2026 PCE projection to 3.6% (from 2.7% in March) and the median dot up to imply a hike. As LPL's Lawrence Gillum and Jeffrey Roach (sell-side research) put it, the dots showed "about half the committee expecting no change… half the committee suggesting one rate hike," with six members at two hikes and one at three, "pretty hawkish," and "the conversation of rate cuts is completely off the table now" ([Market Signals by LPL Financial](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgs4jdojmayT682P-2BlWZQHlGIcvS26e7owF-2BNgWgZq3XEJ8nf18c9ON8TFK1QVaj0hI0PRIjGIUIrIPgF5C5XJXXfI2AIITXFqx6pOuenSXfQ-3D-3D03fB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5LjU2-2BW8zHzuJsJaGnjgdmWwoS-2B2oRzF6Nmbfo-2BNR4Ayw1Wdmc2OJm7d7-2BlQtn4Wt-2Fe4da2NNPdJ49-2FdgNI3T-2BaHUgpu27MMm6HYLqQfaMNbKAsJc-2FqoJ3aL-2BBGYzohmiQ-3D-3D)). Key Wealth's Rajiv Sharma (buy-side fixed income) anchored on the framing that "inflation has run above target for 63 consecutive months… the committee is unambiguous and unanimous in its commitment to bring inflation down," driving "a flattening move" in the front end ([Key Wealth Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqr0Qvihoz3OLrFKJmJJ6H0PIqDb2SbIbdRvGfoJNAMVSZxxxQK5WKIo12LG-2FW9GozGmfv3ZDIoGKK3rCME186BT2H5hLdqBF6pmGGWOHZHA-3D-3Dyezg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Eq9Qwba8w0mAzIOesJr6MDsHVO0VeOdzcCbeODRuC7pVPJc2v9M2G42y66RvNVAfgUTNdVGVmFSa7yu9zbzGfNd9LFpwEnL6yMnEymWUNBJepGFz1tRRDYA57P-2FXJ9l5A-3D-3D)). **2. The 2-year had its most hawkish FOMC reaction in three decades.** RenMac's Neil Dutta (independent macro) was blunt: "this was the most hawkish outcome from a meeting when you judge it based on the two-year yield, going back almost 30 years." His key nuance, the hawkishness "has very little to do with what Warsh did… A lot of it is being driven by the regional Fed presidents like Lori Logan, Beth Hammack, Kashkari," with the hawks' real worry being "non-housing services inflation," not oil ([RenMac Off-Script](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOipwlcN-2BEQ7g5X8c4pVrYSH8Ig2DReg7-2FwiGZO7RXcb7nfzReDevVwdwrTokzBlnp9fTSnIolGSFK-2FBUKL4-2BebXo-2BwEzQTVMsyFkIiitJSEBQ-3D-3Debpq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Kn5w7-2FHhmyEVrQobxxvYtE-2F081jxwUdN7wXV-2BQJTmDXNKKfpvMWmOAIU4DYL-2BPK6jQpzPWhyXnZLhBhh7fTSlZau1KwUrC5cbcBl7PBzy3zaA9C2UJ9Wylo-2FtcTaRu-2FmQ-3D-3D)). **3. Warsh is rebuilding how the Fed talks.** Reuters Fed correspondent Howard Schneider (expert observer) explained the philosophy: Warsh "believes there is no reason for the Fed to spoon feed financial markets… rates on long-term bonds should be set by supply and demand, not by us telling you to expect X, Y, or Z," leaving the open question of whether the hawkish read was intentional "in an elliptical, Greenspanian way, or just a mistake" ([Reuters Econ World](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiDI6c6aaKIk6V7OWcw-2F-2FZKx4gJi9UkRosGj-2FgLHGC26zR3AL-2Fr1kgK0nsVbmZemnqrPhbhmd89WcuK3ZZ7GH4FmBru66NQN3YK01EozDJl6A-3D-3Dv4Ls_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5DnJpXvmR9eNxbSQnTu-2FnnC8cfezGNIOkdLJ3C0RptTA1PRH-2FavEuZe6-2BVPqoSnI9VkDB7-2B0c0YRI9UH-2Bmbvf4QFjwUpPm2v6oQqAi6hUuO9F2fEEyhrHOFs5jt2TB6OUg-3D-3D)). Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (insider, current voter) is "pretty sympathetic to that approach," noting "every time the committee makes statements about the future that end up not being true, our credibility takes a ding" ([Marketplace](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiD-2BERQwM8mfTDt-2FMxFLFuaKGEBYPKkyEaPfFTiFsOVre0CFCloZn9Yes4VjNV351-2BpAJ06V3uhPfPnfbEdbWST2CIKEZahic2xuy3sm2dAzA-3D-3DT9LO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Iu-2Fjc5h-2BZ6xT3K9jNSPBYw8-2F36foiCgyoztfKVv2ixM2yeammRuMF7VcRIA7kjNzkaFRh6tbtSFAyfHzfaMZPzgaRdtss1vl-2Fd0L9hEnQi0halncvaEGUO1FAtWIxCh-2Fg-3D-3D)). **4. Five task forces, and a balance-sheet signal for Jackson Hole.** Warsh stood up task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data quality, productivity/AI, and the inflation framework, per JPM Asset Management's David Kelly (buy-side strategist) ([Notes on the Week Ahead](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgNCntnp3HpRRi-2BNZwL9D9TmYT3NlmocNv-2B5sl6P6Eu8k-2FJWARGDd2yXAxuQ8gk40WM1phqGjije0HLMM3KfjRRnGYhE6DMlEr9h9bGQO84Ug-3D-3DO2pW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Gy9yB4ho0iMXrSbLM5nw67uv-2FKUbjr9YWBZYFQDE97Yj-2Bsypg7E1oRt57NQudDWkv-2BKNz6e5vGWnzgWRWrsCCJUyAaGvlS9rYd0cuav1WOWNqgTAoZk8IK0nzWSLpBwBw-3D-3D)). BMO's Ian Lingen and Ben Jeffery (sell-side rates) expect balance-sheet findings to be "revealed sometime around Jackson Hole at the end of August" ([Macro Horizons](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhZmsep-2BeYQGebJb-2FpVCKHmVW6nf6-2Bczw2H-2Bkv7FDYofHJ2lls-2F7RXmlweUCDqa2VT-2BQ9v0nRAmpIv-2BcV8Esn7SER9vpj4jPCEpq-2F2QuQqF5g-3D-3Dh3Ee_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5DR7It-2BQ-2Bd2-2BBTollKh-2BaLPUQsCVV2JcKsbwjyviHfycmQjhqK0EK9nXQYgPTKh0-2BeyYEi31xEfDO-2BdrttMWVE9V-2BBKoeYVOSrS-2FhBcZ2bwLBgbrLWr107WkeSHtoB-2FUBQ-3D-3D)). **5. The oil rollover is the swing variable.** With WTI back near pre-war levels, former NY Fed President Bill Dudley (insider) flagged that June "is probably the really last bad headline inflation report for a while… headline inflation is going to decline quite significantly" ([Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFXHnLxdEmI4Afhrj-2FZ0RGG21NkTXr6NCW7UdP1ecTMHSwfcswDLKkoYi3mAfYHAB21YuyfNuf3BuQQyIH8nppB8jLSpE22LMCA0csADVbKQ-3D-3DjacU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5IwRg9XoC8n09xeGcT1whzIIJocP90M-2FzqEouoH6oxIxU4JYh2-2B35bx0Vphf8u54tyz9pGQS9cwVuSXyeJIB-2B07ENpLktF1PetvvoDWelPrtAVHON6nfrQv230mB3gEigQ-3D-3D)). ## The debate **The hawk case (steel-manned).** Dudley made the most aggressive operator argument on tape: "We've been at this level of rates or higher for three years, and the economy is still at 4.3% unemployment. So what's the evidence policy is restrictive?" adding that the board's own financial-conditions model shows "the impulse to growth over the next year is over 1% positive on GDP… Easy financial conditions, no evidence policy is restrictive… does create a strong argument for tightening" ([Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFXHnLxdEmI4Afhrj-2FZ0RGG21NkTXr6NCW7UdP1ecTMHSwfcswDLKkoYi3mAfYHAB21YuyfNuf3BuQQyIH8nppB8jLSpE22LMCA0csADVbKQ-3D-3Divrv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5C6qM5AE7DD5-2BN-2FwVBJBxQ-2BA7ql82HcVWpDmN0EUT4n-2F4-2B5M8jkDNpJc8Inyxhnj7vaZz94vxKGenithD-2BQC3tuFCYHOCtuRqbDUHRsOj1duOHbwkb60BXRgyf4Ka7WQLA-3D-3D)). Goolsbee, the only sitting voter on tape, reinforced the inflation worry: services inflation "is historically pretty persistent… a little more disturbing," and he doesn't regret his prior dissent against front-loading cuts ([Marketplace](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiD-2BERQwM8mfTDt-2FMxFLFuaKGEBYPKkyEaPfFTiFsOVre0CFCloZn9Yes4VjNV351-2BpAJ06V3uhPfPnfbEdbWST2CIKEZahic2xuy3sm2dAzA-3D-3DmuAN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Bjv2Y2s7fI9aD0WiJFMcw-2FnsWTuG-2BFgYOAhYeHuwiSuo6nu-2BYkkafjatN-2FkpIoyGpCa7m3WuY6SOZVFplqZFdcinSiLHf-2BE9N8gzvl13gEsc-2FrwW8saHKMw2tUL3lK1gQ-3D-3D)). JPM rates strategists Jay Barry and Liam Wash (sell-side) put numbers on it: 10-year yields look "25 to 30 basis points too low… the largest deviation since the spring of 2023," with a 1997-style mid-cycle adjustment implying "50 to 100 basis points" of hikes ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOihbHFjIS9-2FyE5T09ssAxRWA2trl-2B6cTlef2mVOkxGkn3xsvh4NgFV7OuZOOKIpL2u3RI3UJeRyrvrCaY2o4BIay99HK6EOsj6WJZUNsJE0SA-3D-3D4HLX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Cvmx3HWJY2YuXzxukzIMz9asKjkEzaebXctpfDpLDw4Nm-2FYa4mszhb3KlWInAnv5FWhCnyjPVKG-2Bnxv2CN9p-2BbtAUnQyBchFXDJLPaCflgY7Z5kWqWR3re3Xx2gFXojBg-3D-3D)). **The dove / "hold" case (steel-manned).** BMO's Lingen and Jeffery argue a hike is the wrong tool: "A fine-tuning rate hike or two isn't going to solve the fundamental problem of the energy shock… Patience is the most prudent approach for the FOMC" ([Macro Horizons](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhZmsep-2BeYQGebJb-2FpVCKHmVW6nf6-2Bczw2H-2Bkv7FDYofHJ2lls-2F7RXmlweUCDqa2VT-2BQ9v0nRAmpIv-2BcV8Esn7SER9vpj4jPCEpq-2F2QuQqF5g-3D-3Dvudq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5ByR6sdeU5mSkp-2F4MGFkkpCc1qYU7k1Ed5C0NbmHoJBF8NDYxZYqRDCXmEybrsfEOhe9daSXPMJlR-2F6OaoamuACOcDFRcC53eGSbwt1YMzQ0XPYj3z7vPZM80qJ3xHCU4A-3D-3D)). Mohamed El-Erian (Allianz, former Pimco CEO) sees no move either way in 2026: "They won't lower because the economy is doing well. They won't hike because part of this inflation is going to pass through" ([Squawk Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhdv4qSDi6YoXml5WTHtu8n3tlsSGFo0HzcdzqXknp-2FPs1Rms8ur-2FocgrQsz6YKqnrZ6zJMXhHfhv8WGNRyjfyfulX5zpZmhZyY8JPJV3-2FOvA-3D-3DmWpV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5JQSGOvSQTz9-2FHP6reeV67lVBWHZQIJ9C8LGTjw-2Fqe9mTDgmrYIowOKfjSyM9xJdV33lPaGxs8DvNiOz0zgiywT13eq5ALS-2BiDuViRx2NBCXE0m-2BvkIhpWoM6NSx-2Fg9Q-2BA-3D-3D)). David Kelly's vote-counting is the sharpest pushback on the dots: "if the dot plot had been of those who actually get to make the decision this year, it would forecast no change," 8 of 11 voters at hold-or-cut, and "futures markets are now more hawkish than the Fed's own projections" ([Notes on the Week Ahead](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgNCntnp3HpRRi-2BNZwL9D9TmYT3NlmocNv-2B5sl6P6Eu8k-2FJWARGDd2yXAxuQ8gk40WM1phqGjije0HLMM3KfjRRnGYhE6DMlEr9h9bGQO84Ug-3D-3D0_wn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Gq5eTWL2AOGb-2BDcoP8EI5h9wq-2BlI35pjfChekniHC-2FLkPIXne0CTMtahPRmsvkoyYcwwgR-2FdftTztQc8NA8199mdXMaM8Z0HqYsPNwCR6EPuz1UxHiRNrDlEeBTRLsIJA-3D-3D)). Carson's Sonu Varghese (buy-side) distilled it: "count the votes, not the dots. Crude oil just fell from 120 to 70" ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjX1IaSmBxkDJTXvD-2F-2Bxv6EnP0BKNUcCFyAacIehr63ZDyIze7hgW5-2F0cF4H9sfYqavEujK3G5muPDPTc6Io5yuFoBk2brp4eU6o34i4ZPAcA-3D-3Dfmea_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5KB9-2FWZC0uXQreo0zmPRUTYzNwLZdgAI6gER8QB5at6wXMm1JhWxfbpD3-2BA9ZtXt9DBn-2F6YbxGXdVEdXNMbktwRkOc-2BsARA24DpZgSkG8Z1Ml54ERZiDInEEyMAR-2F7gcyg-3D-3D)). Note the gap: no sitting hawk (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) appeared on tape, their hawkishness is described by others, not voiced directly. ## The trades in play - **Front-end pay / curve flatteners.** JPM looks for the 10-year up to ~4.70% by year-end and a 5s30s flattener of ~30bps if a mid-cycle adjustment plays out ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOihbHFjIS9-2FyE5T09ssAxRWA2trl-2B6cTlef2mVOkxGkn3xsvh4NgFV7OuZOOKIpL2u3RI3UJeRyrvrCaY2o4BIay99HK6EOsj6WJZUNsJE0SA-3D-3DhlaL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5HudRt94oGl12b-2FEIVXceYc-2BalHaljHOAi0Pj54Yo-2FT9wuBICWrEO59LC-2FBeNtJihRdDcUNC-2Be8YIScT04c0xEC1NHnEK-2B88IQZaaRypFVFQxMVqA-2BoYGN3A5XSRffYc-2Bw-3D-3D)). - **The opposite duration bet.** BMO stays "medium-term constructive," targeting 10-year yields "back closer to 4%" and the 2s10s toward the 2025 low of 15.9bps ([Macro Horizons](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhZmsep-2BeYQGebJb-2FpVCKHmVW6nf6-2Bczw2H-2Bkv7FDYofHJ2lls-2F7RXmlweUCDqa2VT-2BQ9v0nRAmpIv-2BcV8Esn7SER9vpj4jPCEpq-2F2QuQqF5g-3D-3DEuRO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5IZsgEyQhFOjMMFDFpla8ow8IzxaWg82NWlorTTdEZrpEwYh2bwonfz-2F1Zt3Q5NhI5BmfWesWXqg7F4ZROOU40Uivlo8jcAkpZlCFukAyZvhDcQAdO3s8cAk7NeK9VMfPQ-3D-3D)). JPM Asset Management's Phil Camporeale sees the 10-year settling "around four and a half to 4.6%" ([Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFXHnLxdEmI4Afhrj-2FZ0RGG21NkTXr6NCW7UdP1ecTMHSwfcswDLKkoYi3mAfYHAB21YuyfNuf3BuQQyIH8nppB8jLSpE22LMCA0csADVbKQ-3D-3DsQJd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Ospp9FCy1h1Zhbgc0iTIvuYpELMagSeLFx2bxLLz03gVfal-2BrXvUta-2BaBQ98HV1Bl64AugZTuSYEc2DyOHFCst9xASGtHu-2FUBSwy1-2BVsbtixhoTkaaBOth1v6O8GVobbw-3D-3D)). - **Park in the 2-year.** Matrix's David Katz (buy-side): "clip the 4.2% coupon in the 2-year… don't take credit risk, don't take duration risk" ([Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhDYFPFnIG0ciforvk4U0gB-2Bcs84wHOWV7e7PEZsdcPuPdPivyez6fB8BnIjK-2FVcMVp9dKIOr4dsoWvaISon3PiZepa2MNejREFwblolMDGZA-3D-3DmeLB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5DhRCnkt1W0Vjws7Cm5qVxmFiQVbO13VvzWQYCyoIMcfB1qpQX8dUd28FRyLt9pe-2F6W8YTgxOrHjbvFnxByFSisTadcd6bBbG3l3lHX3OOzB1TuZqHCoVGRKelWUtp1hpA-3D-3D)). ## Read-throughs - **Dollar up, metals down.** RenMac's Jeff deGraaf tied the bear flattener to a stronger dollar and "bearish" gold/silver, since "real rates are the driver of risk" ([RenMac Off-Script](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOipwlcN-2BEQ7g5X8c4pVrYSH8Ig2DReg7-2FwiGZO7RXcb7nfzReDevVwdwrTokzBlnp9fTSnIolGSFK-2FBUKL4-2BebXo-2BwEzQTVMsyFkIiitJSEBQ-3D-3DRxpo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5Mj3al16E7UpmxJuh9Tpo4m1zbw0x8Yw1S4etA9tMEZ1unl-2FO4tsi0UorIn-2F0cGQgvHbZ5ryhA6JU2C9oOzcwYaH-2FI4O8u-2FE5-2F9-2B-2Fil42MYnDCN8qUK9PxiCB1Pncn-2FEgw-3D-3D)). - **Term premia.** With the Fed's "handholding" gone, 42 Macro's Darius Dale expects "a wider range of probable outcomes… which should push up the term premia" ([The Pomp Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhSQwsDQHSSW8qb2YHTr6sVcvqcD3LtQF8jxffAiwG9HtjEXuMnqkoDkWMqqbOQPowQYEPkKI8wQqGE4tvDzvwO5Pr48cG0wLSQP-2FLPq9ujfQ-3D-3DZh4__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5GEqRnGzpxgTHNIHCIgE6cAXuYw2RO3nLJglFPRMcKwZpl0Xrmxzj9mScmYJi2OWM8Ieo-2B8k4J3-2F8fEVlD-2FK7dnU4J4acb7bLSi31MjSGMNcj1Gd5eLV6vg1AQPIUX5Yvg-3D-3D)). - **Equities.** Carson's Varghese warned the danger isn't a one-off July hike but a 2027 scenario where sticky 3% inflation forces sustained tightening, "then the Fed could potentially kill the bull market" ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjX1IaSmBxkDJTXvD-2F-2Bxv6EnP0BKNUcCFyAacIehr63ZDyIze7hgW5-2F0cF4H9sfYqavEujK3G5muPDPTc6Io5yuFoBk2brp4eU6o34i4ZPAcA-3D-3DKKje_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5G-2FG8LbqZ8zQzHh2ldLZJnAwAcux8srZn0JmAhBKMAVK52oV8Trm56e6HUDzOqQPQDkR-2FKAt94-2Bp8fjLaFHmSEyl516Rm4MaIbut-2BIjZBXXKV1-2B-2F5PncWmXZw0FwIpAf2A-3D-3D)). ## What changed The reaction function flipped. As First Citizens' team noted, "four months ago, right before the Iran war began, markets were priced for the Fed to cut rates three times… now that has reversed" ([Making Sense](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiAbYHB2-2BBuy5AKQaccRhacLryCP1suQfiK2zACxSN7zLKm8VVR2Z-2BdnuIRuBe6r9s8JeLfi9IZ-2BXoIdCi1rwiDm6qYvJC3SACOqRS5PHOT7A-3D-3DBSB9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5JDp9DhSEYV0U-2BgTg06GzSmaTwUV4eow1m4savrpsBGnN7d28mVC1HDoY7xtzQHKBSU9QMvsT6R11XhvDp9M8XqrQfbyuRSFDzxOujhCwRPGicw9TOpMvg33-2ByjxUHd0DA-3D-3D)). The next catalyst is payrolls; per JPM, "another robust month of employment growth" would lower the perceived bar to hike ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOihbHFjIS9-2FyE5T09ssAxRWA2trl-2B6cTlef2mVOkxGkn3xsvh4NgFV7OuZOOKIpL2u3RI3UJeRyrvrCaY2o4BIay99HK6EOsj6WJZUNsJE0SA-3D-3DFuLm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUI0ogoSbiU1kitmcNA3-2FLRuSPZBDvWwHwylvtsyqlV5NIcxi2-2BrkSZVMeUNbMI6kC65CDH4d4x8L8SXDHxM4BeCoQ0f-2BJzPi6cm4bgfIzsNcHOBGAvB2y13DBe6BhR0L7litr-2Fh0pFlBsoXMfAeE4unm4t-2FFpuJjoV-2F4IzSkHeoA-3D-3D)).