# Air Force Picks Anduril and General Atomics for Combat Drones as Primes Lose the Airframe - US Industrials Weekly Podcast Recap - Week of June 22-29, 2026

> US industrials podcast recap for the week of June 22-29, 2026. The loudest story was the Air Force's Collaborative Combat Aircraft award to Anduril and General Atomics with Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrop shut out of the airframe, layered over a Boeing-vs-Airbus split on a new narrowbody, a FedEx beat that split the Street, a supply-driven freight cycle near its peak, and China's escalating rare-earth retaliation.

## US Industrials Weekly Podcast Recap

### Week of June 22-29, 2026: Air Force Picks Anduril and General Atomics for Combat Drones as Primes Lose the Airframe

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**Coverage window: June 22–29, 2026** | Roughly 90+ relevant episodes surfaced across the sweep. The deepest sub-sectors this week were defense and aerospace autonomy, commercial aerospace, freight/trucking/rail, tariffs and trade, and rare earths.

## Top of Mind

**CCA was the defense story of the week.** The USAF awarded Collaborative Combat Aircraft engineering, manufacturing, and development (EMD) production to Anduril (FQ-44) and General Atomics (FQ-42); Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrop were re-solicited but not selected for the airframe. $9.5B is budgeted FY27 to FY31 (potentially 300 to 500 aircraft). Collins/RTX, Shield AI, and Anduril won the separate mission-autonomy software contracts.

**Boeing vs. Airbus diverged sharply on a new narrowbody.** Boeing CEO Ortberg says the market wants today's planes improved, not a clean-sheet jet (demand "pushed back about a year"); Airbus CEO Faury reaffirmed a 2030 launch. Boeing is running 737 at about 47/month, reportedly outperforming Airbus's supply chain.

**FedEx printed a beat and split the Street.** EPS beat by $0.36, US volumes +3%, pricing +10%, but Express margin missed (8.9% vs. 9.2%). Barclays ($425 PT) sees a potential earnings double in 3 to 5 years; Morningstar ($257 FV) called it overvalued into the print.

**The freight cycle looks supply-driven and possibly near a peak.** Michigan State's Jason Miller calls it "90% supply-driven," likely "towards the spot peak right now," with Class-8 orders pointing to capacity returning in Q4 2026 and 2027. Bulls counter that roughly 18% tender rejections and AI/data-center freight keep it tight.

**China escalated rare-earth retaliation**, banning sales to 10 US rare-earth and defense names (MP Materials, USA Rare Earth) and barring purchases from 46 US firms including Lockheed and Raytheon. There is still effectively zero commercial heavy-rare-earth refining outside China.

**An Iran ceasefire was the dominant macro swing factor for industrials.** A US-Iran ceasefire/MOU reopened the Strait of Hormuz; diesel fell 22.7 cents in one week (second-largest weekly drop in EIA history), cutting carrier fuel costs and pulling oil from about $95 to the mid-$70s.

**The ISM semi-annual forecast turned bullish on revenue, not jobs.** Manufacturing revenue expectations nearly doubled to +8.5%, capacity +9.7%, operating rates 87%, but employment stuck at +1.4%. Active reshoring interest fell to 15% (from 27% in May 2025).

**Tariffs remain the central macro debate.** Treasury's Bessent calls the program "a big success"; industrial-facing voices cite Ford's roughly $2B tariff bill (about 20% of profit), roughly 100k lost manufacturing jobs, and about $11k added to new-home cost.

**AI power demand keeps feeding industrials**, electrical equipment (800V/1500V DC, switchgear, transformers), grid buildout, and B2B freight all cited as beneficiaries; FERC is pushing data-center interconnection via show-cause orders.

**Index and event notes:** Honeywell Aerospace joins the S&P 500 (replacing Conagra) effective June 29; CSX opened the rebuilt Howard Street Tunnel enabling East Coast double-stack intermodal; 3M signed a long-term A220 insulation supply deal with Airbus.

## 1. Dominant Themes

### 1. Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA): A Watershed Week for Defense Autonomy

The most intensely discussed US industrials story of the week was the US Air Force's award of EMD production contracts for the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program to Anduril Industries (FQ-44) and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (FQ-42). Both [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhwL1s-2B7clzNqrmqrBKwlA8SrCEiMz9gowPBYaNAg4-2FW-2BFkAvFNFtEpUBysWdBPaEMHIt9YkCPWXeaOpTpIAJFPz3c2t7MDB7TyiGJoNwD-2FNA-3D-3DxdJ7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFIig7qBNiFn-2Bu-2Foz3yz6YvoWXV08KWsyURda0O5DX-2F5C6hJCejrPmQhFwH24D5nliIV3bVHwvUIpYfpI6H-2FPuCOzekWKBIfpuuz6ONzWSynja0y-2Bqe-2BanX7-2F5nE9WKNxzg-3D-3D) (June 23) and [The Aerospace Advantage](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLhfRlLZD-2FhUs2sRyU2Qk0uzX3ezR1f4sdGXqXtrC8kp7Ur-2FGpfwBn-2BoqmwwBi1F1rxuJEtpZ81WxXZsgXrpIai7ZGAWkOeftI-2FE06N-2FmHfQ-3D-3DISRS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFCFUFrb50MsjXTYhUQKZQ0aiE7Zs5bSkSbUx0a-2FeDtLlvTXGm5LbxYoZPxNpAWeO93y8xP2R4M18EzHCf1u83-2BO38EK8EyVzaFnzWySpae2SMcSBbFwTxICjWDAsUaYvSQ-3D-3D) (June 27) ran extensive, expert-level coverage with the companies themselves.

Aviation Week's Steve Trimble and Brian Everstine confirmed the awards beat the Air Force's cost benchmark (both aircraft cost less than one-third of an F-35) and that $9.5 billion is budgeted in the Future Years Defense Program from FY2027 through FY2031, potentially funding 300 to 500 aircraft. Brian Everstine noted: "Anduril and General Atomics proved themselves. They proved themselves that they are the best option for the Air Force to meet both their schedule and their cost goals." Steve Trimble added that these aircraft are "really not that impressive from just an aeronautic standpoint... The impressive part is the software. Because what we're doing for the first time is allowing these systems to make decisions, tactical, mission-oriented decisions on their own."

Critically, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman were re-solicited but not selected. On the mission autonomy software side, separate from the airframe, the Air Force awarded 6-month contracts to Collins/RTX, Shield AI, and Anduril from a broader pool that also included General Atomics, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. A single autonomy vendor will be selected in summer 2027, though the multi-vendor model is expected to persist.

Dave Mock-Cockman of Anduril (June 27, [The Aerospace Advantage](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLhfRlLZD-2FhUs2sRyU2Qk0uzX3ezR1f4sdGXqXtrC8kp7Ur-2FGpfwBn-2BoqmwwBi1F1rxuJEtpZ81WxXZsgXrpIai7ZGAWkOeftI-2FE06N-2FmHfQ-3D-3DnNA0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFOWAho8iZ9iHA61-2BisConJwRXl5RUoSrzRxrGlenDYOwZuPNRWO6H-2F-2F7e-2BZbmkcZUFnsoIFbSfrPrLCuOirasxsHrahq8D7K6aAI9nI3yPPOpFc3gcwTjLR-2BsRxjhtU2ZQ-3D-3D)) stated: "The challenge shifts. Now we get to prove that we can deliver affordable mass at scale, which is why Anduril's invested a billion dollars to stand up Arsenal One, which is our new factory... outside of Columbus, Ohio." Mike Atwood of General Atomics framed the shift: "Both Anduril and GA were able to first fly an aircraft in under two years... I think the Pentagon felt very comfortable." The Royal Netherlands Air Force also finalized an agreement to participate in Increment 1, buying two prototype aircraft, reinforcing the allied interoperability angle.

### 2. Boeing vs. Airbus: Starkly Different Strategic Visions for the Next Decade

[Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjcfTlTDJbRI0TDWcirVZdJ6yiR0TG0LbiINjTGZXZG30cr1UdfKVKOml-2By8Xpk2L-2FyhvzZV-2FnqtCHWJJ9xVsulj0od9ocuQOGcq6Aot6G2OQ-3D-3DOQzI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFFMKRl96xcfKSDKFtLpcpeGxPSDz4ZQvP5V8tH81Hy-2Bl1HZv1IVKXAGbrG4uzdevE4s3f8WEG4tqnh0HP8BFekdUJNS7QpsRqRcgpErGz-2FYgJPVCu-2BaNOwMgkwx-2F8snrXw-3D-3D) (June 26) published a major episode comparing exclusive CEO interviews with Boeing's Kelly Ortberg and Airbus' Guillaume Faury ahead of Farnborough.

The headline finding: Boeing CEO Ortberg explicitly said the market doesn't want a new narrowbody yet. Aviation Week's Guy Norris said Ortberg told the team "the demand for this new airplane has gone further back... maybe a year further back than it was last year." Ortberg said airlines were asking him to "make today's airplanes run better," and on culture change: "It's probably going faster and better than I would have guessed 22 months ago." In direct contrast, Airbus CEO Faury was adamant about a 2030 aircraft launch with first deliveries in the mid-2030s. Jan Schvotel reported: "He was very clear. He answered no, no, no. Absolutely not. The plan on the other side is still to prepare for the launch in 2030."

Meanwhile, [Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg0QfNr2mI9qNzU5ADdeWE3utzJbBpd5U5kzRlUYc-2FfJCJTYVculuxLJoYY4tE5rdC9-2BMcDvkvuRqo4J7VKEaKnAKg1rSj-2BXU4A-2Fafv5apSVA-3D-3D_z94_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFAz4pJT1o30uO5sP-2FfWs-2BloasCgkPkQSkUtbV7zxuLlMLwuBx46QqnLjesn7exqXcmIyyvi4yanPgrrJE7yYg-2BWOdRgEHVPEkOFnzmUZ-2FfPAsZZJcQ3E3To2YfGIYwvujA-3D-3D) (June 26) covered Boeing's $3.6 billion China Southern Airlines deal for 777 freighters as a potential sign of market re-entry. George Ferguson: "I would have liked to have seen things like narrow body orders. I'd like to see 737 orders going into China. That would get me more excited." On 737 production: "Moving to 47 [per month]... Boeing's actually getting better performance out of their supply chain and production build than Airbus is now." On the supply chain side, [The Minnesota Business Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOifze015b92-2F2t9mwhFEGyJfAQVEstCeyI3cIYY-2BiHNp4ck19Nzfb5Eu38K6Evc-2BhaA1oNKbhmU5vjueCQmxCFQN6TU8I-2BAX9j5heCQ-2Fz-2F9Hw-3D-3DFbeF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFBb6BfXt6juInniYN9DmjxAvvEt1rYnlyJJHv6fqxgpxKa4e4M8ydZSKIMQX14PDRvQ6V4RCqizwUATzA7wtOyQ5Rjh6ZMkkwup9Yz7AWaDDHStTu5toIDGUvbuVUTw87g-3D-3D) (June 26) reported 3M signed a long-term supply agreement with Airbus to provide thermal and acoustic insulation materials for the A220 program.

### 3. Freight Cycle: Tight but Approaching an Inflection

[FTR | State of Freight](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgntLyD4v-2Fjj0lqjXEb-2FgSncuk-2B3LthUxCQNtW9AfggbnRXKkbRqrqS7oav-2FuZf6u9OZwsy06TGEsUoJKgHb7ltoqHWqS3r5FE-2BB2rCtdV1Dw-3D-3DvFbP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFFPyRnecOZk3jb2-2Btcn7kbtGzNmqREPvRQmLiizAgMwX6ktg-2FIsaaXPrI1KL9t8Bdpl2nOkE1459H-2FR4aztnUpYRHH9h1SWDJ67QPfn5lpR2p3pIgamj2FnDkEIjMGDLqQ-3D-3D) (June 23) reported that for the week of June 19, flatbed spot rates declined for the first time in 24 consecutive weeks, though all-in rates remain more than 52 cents higher year-over-year and fuel-adjusted rates are up over 53% year-over-year. Diesel prices plunged 22.7 cents to $4.83/gallon, the second-largest single-week decrease in 32 years of EIA tracking, following a US-Iran ceasefire/MOU development.

Michigan State economist Jason Miller on [Freightvine](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh8UE3dwVIW9jN8WWml-2FmwW8KZjNxnH4VfDsfHw31GoNzmNFcxiS7bDG-2BkSYaQmi1ZP6fOKW1f4EWMwEBfqZuX5NFrQ4-2BuP-2FAoYc75s2QqtFA-3D-3Dkd-Y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFAa2PHHrnXvbWLS-2BM1MbTD-2BFP9aiM4SYc2ekF7c-2Fz4vTVMG-2Bce3vaQv40AqSF03JNxjjmLeznSm-2B86U5NVOQsLJE8cDsNZvU2-2BXdP7AbE-2FGMadwN8HfVjr8Fyj01zGdtig-3D-3D) (June 25) offered the deepest framing: "This is 90% supply-driven and maybe 10% demand-driven... we finally sort of just tipped over that threshold where you start to see more routing guide failures." He warned: "I think there's a decent chance that we're probably towards the spot peak right now... it's difficult to see where there's an influx of freight demand that is going to happen that is sustained." Miller sees capacity returning in Q4 2026 and into 2027 as Class 8 orders (well above replacement) translate into new supply.

[FreightCasts/FreightWaves Today](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjCh1Y5YhF8ISgrp-2B1S9kBT4bTWFRnLK6h2Bnmb2I50XTf3nS7iMXCO4X-2BHQ4DJ19rlonkYjhvSsT0cSWXhmGHZI-2BnNP5YR4ujVpZIosf2pKQ-3D-3D9OCd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFLn7CrRujOto79LDO4N2TpoLiF-2FxK-2BHKpzcc316Q1vAJ1x8qpPg2kxHTyUeMomlKOj4-2FEWTjRvNGW0KmvACEz336y9fH9xseFbO3kaXo9-2F5Mok-2F16NHzxHTBYMNN72bttw-3D-3D) (June 26) provided a more bullish counter: tender rejections near 18% with potential to reach 20%, AI data center freight demand remaining strong, and driver shortages preventing fleet expansion through 2027. [FreightCasts/Brake Check](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiH3vphc1IXSYatOK9zr0Yi-2FC7w2oTxSDaUGPvuPZlrdaYasvxYmnBIGzmxwxT-2BsU6DHgChR1NeJoUprQnlX2OJklnYJ8krq0m1Qbr-2BHJ9sSA-3D-3DjTON_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFObJm-2BkmxMS4a5ulFIi7B2TozWcvZCfdj-2B2gE3uXnEiEAQchedHZ3yjHooAD0BN4-2BU-2B3ssgPThBOtO3pPZpwmXWV4DE1P4843opwLTqD-2B69IcEHnLNUQbPdGw-2BRiQ9-2F-2B-2BQ-3D-3D) (June 25) took a sober view on owner-operators: rates are catching up to costs but not creating a "super cycle."

### 4. FedEx Q4 Earnings and the Spinoff of FedEx Freight

FedEx's first earnings report post-spinoff of FedEx Freight generated substantial commentary. The results: revenue beat, EPS beat by $0.36, US volumes +3%, US pricing +10%, but Express segment margins missed at 8.9% vs. 9.2% estimated.

Bloomberg Intelligence's Lee Klaskow ([Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2FfCHCoPdGwJwQOPpB-2FcZcpsA-2FC9nzfWuXvYz8htaxA7j8FfNclDK-2BXPTy8Y-2FD64afvdurPdJQw3gMhaAmN-2BLJlTV5-2BdSFw7a9e4jVbwpRxQ-3D-3DBnFH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFI81fqcx6a6ryGZlg4Fa2augTePha4JyCG241GqAY0PEJvWy-2F1g6hai5W0ZpGB0NprqPM2SKnHgjNqzwNtbZFhJfIAwmGXEAKrezxOr53ITWF8Dd5wCV0LPw-2BpEMhw-2FpIg-3D-3D), June 24) described the print as "pretty good for their physical fourth quarter... their B2B business has been benefiting from the build-out of data centers." He cited FedEx's $18.10 calendar year EPS guide as "slightly below whisper numbers" but noted management has shifted from "over-promising and under-delivering" to "modest guidance with beats."

Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski (via [CNBC Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJbISkXR2XqWX2A7SEMvcnl0-2FWlUD1kF12Em7Ahu2jsMgqGwdpZc7gpbDEJALLa4qI9Oq0Qm4TfJP-2FRrN1kHtbUSuoi8GhrSY-2FX399ggtklg-3D-3DZ0bV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFPXD3AWEVGSzJSuVbQNnxyyheAS43H8brzS4VgBV7ZTyccj-2Fi0h1GM8QKvXcsU7plk7z9FfBIG6gptk7yjmZLXevBd6YgaPWOAm5AdTVNs9qiY6GHZShe7xtWlRi3ePR-2BQ-3D-3D), June 23) was most bullish: "We're talking about a company that's guiding to 20% EPS growth for the remainder of the year... this could be more than a double in earnings in three to five years." PT: $425. On the duopoly: "UPS is undergoing a network shrink activity right now that's really driving their fixed cost higher... and here's FedEx actually becoming more efficient, faster, and likely cheaper." FedEx Freight was cited up over 10% since the June 1 spinoff, with [Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOisAMe-2BJXAmYRXypxmHrYNapNEZ8oHXI-2B4Q1MD8gTPHaId1uTjv-2FMU8B4Tr-2Fyh4dFFf-2FzyRyPnYZIhQ94JaIqjpNmoSLWdLwMZKFLdQusVDCQ-3D-3DJW2g_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFNFuXnqaz6Tx8lchLTbVv7Cw249g-2BO-2BajvElQuohpNG4C3EuGB-2BytO633nXkdxJDV-2BDWQXWzRSep7n4Bl89xcMZcfX8vo8fCYWbHsxp74DX3Qx36BHphlDPUPIdH9ZKblg-3D-3D) (June 23) featuring Jonathan Chappelle noting the margin miss may be distorted by fuel surcharge accounting.

### 5. Rare Earths and Critical Minerals: China's Export Ban Escalates

[NTD Evening News](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhfOAaJAqudfkBsE9DdH6Vi6Gp-2FdL1ddgDc6I3vZncJv5YexnMBrVxJsRkPjCh4vdiNsHKcqDfXjIQ14j3lnf9BhzbK7Ekz0AKNuVtGmZh09Q-3D-3DFEAP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFHvi5yakVbw-2BafGBu2yht990ScRWzrbbxvLPlgHPW7Px6KgOI1uO3EllKNXPcQ-2FLrMtG1hzjfTqw8DzdJYpLvMNT1ZL-2Fci4kXuhcksCTEZDz8bDainogG4C6gsZYj57JiA-3D-3D) (June 22) reported: "China is banning the sale of its products to 10 American rare earth and defense companies... like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, as well as several defense companies. At the same time, China is also banning its regime-linked entities from buying goods from 46 US companies, including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon."

[ChinaTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh-2BXyu62gxgFqEovrrZ9Q-2BTG2UmH4hXbgmHeMSGicBVO4pQI58w6AM0uUIRthp5hvmfDkgi0FnyCIxYActER-2F8ryI4tDjjFhBKd-2FeBruyix6A-3D-3DUjGt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFAtzZE6SXOBgfVtmgNY0VoVSfxZaUJzhemDMX3ZldnKAAwmR7HM582VLKMUfzr6V-2B-2Bzl4JsjbBX5twgSMytvxLG08TDoBYOMonM5OPfZ-2FqX4TWliz7VToYpq6pFD4KrXtw-3D-3D) (June 22) offered the most comprehensive analysis: "As of April 2025, when China squeezed really hard the heavy rare earth controls, there was no commercial-scale refining outside of China. It was really 100% dependency by all accounts." The IEA was cited as saying the US is "nowhere near fixing even just a permanent magnet problem before 2035." [Bloomberg Businessweek](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiEeHQt1G0XiuO9LeNyIGBAV7D6zavznUho3ektjxibTWinyqISJ6HHOQJXWXU7OU5mQjw-2B4WVtz44E6pI-2BkPw9hnKEpTMU03mu0-2BmGl-2FtIjQ-3D-3DKklt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFCBzsEf8AZzXebO1J0GNoNAk-2FxfyEikzA0IGthDhpkkERc7fl9jjrQ-2F6T-2B3DwFZN1wrRgFUodMeE8HfVXnTFRikD4BL4r5oQRwI2s5STqafdNv0hywJ4RNd4RICxXLRe9w-3D-3D) (June 23) covered USA Rare Earths and MP Materials as the two key domestic competitors, but noted 5+ year timelines to separation capacity and decades to new mines.

### 6. ISM Supply Chain Forecast: Manufacturing Optimism Surges, but Employment Flat

ISM Manufacturing Chair Susan Spence and Services Chair Steve Miller appeared on [Manufacturing Talk Radio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJEdWo7qCWpiKfYmCjB-2BdIRkOkmkIpBVm87FzINLsYWgABUe9Pn4GPuveaxEozyJBn2gZD5QTagFGS-2Bi-2Fjid6sHAaDRLrHqYEd1XsO96XrgA-3D-3D6hGT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFFhwmgUe-2FTjGbDqm6xHmskRPfnyQBpZ9UF0987Zvffxe5ao9Cccliuh3NdpOsatR7BToPF4jXsb9ruepM92VUZkzSB-2BhKbvrVTJLEsiWDn72pxb-2B56hJ8CPLwldp0epNJw-3D-3D) (June 22) presenting the semi-annual Supply Chain Planning Forecast. Manufacturing revenue expectations nearly doubled to +8.5% (from +4.5% in December); production capacity expectations jumped to +9.7%; operating rates reached 87%; prices paid rose to 14.1%; but employment remains flat at +1.4%. On reshoring: only 15% of respondents are now actively looking at reshoring, down from 27% in May 2025, with the consensus it "doesn't make sense. We're not coming back to the US. It's still cheaper."

A separate data point from [Mind the Macro](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRpm9Va8Tu5fRO-2BredxKhz7N7k-2B-2FCKRtJXgvllj3MdGM9peeBrItFvPhUmIs4de9gn4eHtimAmvp55NfGTTY6b47V-2Bkp9qK2f07Mh9ViR7rg-3D-3D8-Q9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFMGFr2TUEBO7RNonjEdGTY8xPBad-2BVERLl-2FjvkVaQGShqkIUtrX4zNpbkWcE50viQ5Qy8WDD8S2IAPPUNp4rzHWSK-2FSSHrZSsi4P-2Bqpqs52Wk7sta-2FwWqv7r12O0zCSspQ-3D-3D) (June 26): Flash PMI for June came in at 55.7, beating the 51 consensus, with manufacturing at 57, but "it reflected inventory builds by manufacturers... the fastest rate of increases in inventories in the two-decade survey history aside from the tariff announcement in 2025," while manufacturers were cutting staffing.

### 7. Tariffs: The Macro Debate Over Industrial Impact

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on [Squawk Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLNYK676eCsA47PTx-2Bd9SWt1rW1-2BnMiKufHxpR-2BoaGj4gsWqTfpGUKrpEEi34s0w7z7MonNCyFN4nm1p6lYwU3z4Ouw0S7lh9euiUkjJFEJg-3D-3DjGso_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFK0QGyPn0DJ2IKuRhZl1n7kRh94Qj70yOJp74nnJJG-2BRgGhYN4Atd1mwrPstCq1LDTf4MvLJf2AcTkRGOJ1-2Fo4e5TGNBmvXWqGajoWYRddIFR-2FkBkRA5VM41Tn7qIDSlBg-3D-3D) (June 24) characterized the program as "a big success": "the structural inflation has been in services. And you don't import the services... We saw many of the Chinese producers... reduce their prices by more than 50%." Against this: Mike Muschinich, CEO of Detroit Axle, on [Insight on Business](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj4ememQ0m2dZhtc5N0c0E2bIDeBC96Awx5-2FtwYhTzmJEk5ZdbW5JERFDmucBmkxuCoOzkjKp66YFFxPLx630WpKf-2BIWA9sA1Oun3AcS-2Bac2Q-3D-3DX_9K_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFPS9P47I6zCriS9xUd1DKaYmRJ29rG1KCDNsYwrVfp6T67qlPl1JO66YmAgx6McBLnvYrKTGfqAEQK8cMsOJMKEIsu-2FsPPz0QwC8Aa2bPDdgYY6oUj3Np81-2B-2BdhZU5-2BulA-3D-3D) (June 24) described 72.5% tariffs on auto parts, with tariff payments jumping "from $12.8 million in 2024 to $70 million in 2025." Ford CEO Jim Farley on [Decoder](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj50pE1Xg5rPQsH5jCaY805DnAoB72mGDCuJzvQ99xY-2BqFjFqHfTeJ2pOqHdI7SV2eRlEm34wAzJ16sn3C8xAha9c5vCAMsa2HLes6QoEYCLA-3D-3DIH-U_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFJLzqBItSNauvQOGLD6iH8ft5x6Pypw0MQAxTLBvTP8Pl1o5hkwaLG-2BT9NoBqdXd-2BJ4D7iJD7spiv7ukS9-2Bda5kVqsk7DWwKebCVsvXJhZIPzniNtzkuQtM5jxUsBYOxZw-3D-3D) (June 25) said Ford faces a $2 billion tariff bill that "evaporates about 20% of profit." Cindy Allen on [Simply Trade](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjn7cLCee8Ahli1L89BhcUpoGlFy5MTWcDQ-2F3uB1E8CUMu840SOaoDUvsPjzCamivh2Mg8zF9ovQarrogjPYU0jZIYOqxuw40x0N-2Fi2y5xWrQ-3D-3DyT0M_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFKbD62EYaEglluI-2FWRAjbqbLe4VwprbN6-2F7QZFPhb0fyYAdrVjnbLFvxbqwoELGTSYBuYKfKdTX5d-2BR21rairBab9Q1Jcvmw-2F7Jl3VHjm8nasiiJITRmE3fzba3wmJXXkw-3D-3D) (June 26) estimated 100,000 lost manufacturing jobs, and [Unf*cking The Republic](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhSjJw6OND-2BLGC11Y8-2F5bzCl8Z9gfcD6TBTFyrx3R9Xo5KHS5rhnwe2f83xqVxEYHRLMLVpeNB-2B2drFFoWI8pqxSVr-2FqYOjAaDuc8aTirGmEw-3D-3DK8oG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFGEBMquKoMpaEoZFPxjw6Evd2j5K4zfU3W9qN8rnchc6MNB4U4Yr1YQe9PY-2FWOk-2FgJ93zP8jAbMJ6LjXI3gK6gzjSY6xmP-2B1UprBCXrWSIr1Zj8a4D10Eu4msvvRWpTy1w-3D-3D) (June 23) noted tariffs have added about $11,000 to the price of new homes per NAHB estimates.

### 8. AI-Driven Power Demand: Industrial Implications Broadly Covered

[The Data Center Frontier Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjxFfworwTyNI-2Fr58bMf5BlSl8WNMtrZP8R4E3KqKEqe56TKHz9iQrtZFrpaoZC10qHAWRDDlEWCV6kN-2BMu0x5MRsddGY9KS-2F44vGgGavsdZg-3D-3DiUWs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFEsOaRMzwr1XHXydyU5Lse-2F3A10SbfAFnirVi9KvUMEFGdH2SRthxv93hb21pfBNy5pb3j1lIDhbUJHIpNo93DbNCEnbn8dSJogs6gDBvWMAyt8239Gs-2Fp-2F3yej-2B5AUR2Q-3D-3D) (June 25) featured NEMA discussing how AI data centers are driving innovation in 800V and potentially 1,500V DC power delivery, liquid cooling, transformers, and switchgear, all areas benefiting industrial electrical equipment companies. [Squawk on the Street 11am](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi0kbJOOJAxd9WhVS0JDmC-2Fylx0JJZl5q5XFse80XGN7Ce0MwI-2FveLgsB9W5m5ivtgMXnmb82oSeZSQMqpYYWc6HhZkg8mDonDhxjoGi3s3UQ-3D-3DD5IJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFBZEbhNB6eWCQovXuL2tjffQ3dkzADxRUoA4u3Ag3w6ulgGr7dXn5MWgWTh9Br3WPX97guO9D31AX5SFgzMc8wx2uqNdZHXhasaLqk8ONzW8gFvrAcg2XYk9LbI1xGC85Q-3D-3D) (June 24) noted Honeywell met with the president regarding munitions production and buyback restrictions. [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjgMqr0j8-2BZWspDH-2FZqTKZS63sgK8TQSeW5IxbLBC72A94q8vZzAklI58Fu2Y0-2BVYqPq5r26jA5n6ps9pKX-2Bdb4BfcCYzhwZI8KXc4Yc3OS6A-3D-3DVE-V_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFBxGghXY4uG5v4ebCdAgjx8-2FLn554u82siq2hryq7CEYrl-2FL9rcsa7tI1fECGE2a5iOwjMgMOh9nnftqhqi5Z4Dv6OV6z60XWOS-2FAjNNUXVr3PyqFWsiczuOAxDtSfKMvw-3D-3D) (June 24) covered FERC Chair Laura Swett explaining the commission's new data center interconnection strategy, show-cause orders to grid operators, as an accelerant for grid buildout (e.g., Quanta Services). Iran war dynamics intersected with freight: a US-Iran ceasefire MOU opened the Strait of Hormuz, dropping oil from about $95/bbl to the mid-$70s and lowering carrier fuel costs.

## 2. Active Debates

**Debate 1: Is the trucking freight super cycle real?** *Bull case (supply-constrained through 2027):* [FreightWaves Today](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjCh1Y5YhF8ISgrp-2B1S9kBT4bTWFRnLK6h2Bnmb2I50XTf3nS7iMXCO4X-2BHQ4DJ19rlonkYjhvSsT0cSWXhmGHZI-2BnNP5YR4ujVpZIosf2pKQ-3D-3DD2fG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFGX3hR8cJPBFVudrsbP5wDItruW-2BGncBhz-2Fkjh1PUWyMXRGqbX1EjDNcpLrDtPJe7IJk-2FaO-2BkpfQTseSvfL-2BshA2LZMVR1TKbhhTDuLvluRM-2BNPC32MvrctCuezJwuW-2FLw-3D-3D) (June 26) argued driver shortages are structural, tender rejections approaching 20% imply continued pricing power, and AI data center construction demand provides durable industrial freight volume. *Bear/skeptical case (peak is near):* Jason Miller (Michigan State, [Freightvine](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh8UE3dwVIW9jN8WWml-2FmwW8KZjNxnH4VfDsfHw31GoNzmNFcxiS7bDG-2BkSYaQmi1ZP6fOKW1f4EWMwEBfqZuX5NFrQ4-2BuP-2FAoYc75s2QqtFA-3D-3DPsqI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFLXbDXWVWjIJRjQuWcUMay9euDR6uZsl4V4mkhHHkWxifTtqxT8qu-2BhDQpZRQRnm-2BZ3Q-2BrIVdVspy2xx7-2FytHm1eDPaySMqUuCgGcy1H36CWzEFju4eLK7mqHtgkk6lmkg-3D-3D), June 25) argued this cycle is 90% supply-driven, with Class 8 orders well above replacement pointing to capacity coming back in Q4 2026, and identified the spot peak as likely occurring right now: "I think there's a decent chance that we're probably towards the spot peak right now." *Owner-operator reality check:* [Brake Check](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiH3vphc1IXSYatOK9zr0Yi-2FC7w2oTxSDaUGPvuPZlrdaYasvxYmnBIGzmxwxT-2BsU6DHgChR1NeJoUprQnlX2OJklnYJ8krq0m1Qbr-2BHJ9sSA-3D-3DMyAp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFKe53jicPK5HJgqIQy67tdMcpEy-2Br0NTrUAK1ipJpVWHKk3DSoOdkRzAONOqc2eBfEhvbgqOViT1IWSEYAdCeNDYiA2tsZ9Z2r6PKbvPz40POE0dxVsOT0WUd22iSdn1wA-3D-3D) (June 25) deflated the "super cycle" narrative: rates are rising but not above the rising cost of insurance, maintenance, and equipment. *Contested data point:* Tender rejection rates of 16 to 17% now vs. 25% in 2018 and 25 to 30% in 2021. [FreightWaves Today](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYvzcK307qgXgqsMnl0sCCcoYVTvHSZI8wlQUWRFVxqFcJCrEwyUwqRy0fEl9rioxfRXgXgvTQJnKyQPxV14uRS-2BUingU-2BwOH9DuyqLYs9-2Fg-3D-3Dtw72_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFC8QwIvsRm9owGg1WytkG-2FdSAi8xUgAhBUNhoMBAbMVbRTDEUaHwfbj0CJjqh-2F3dpC1GKIp6ilTqr0dJbIEMqcctnmmU7YhROukmLn3HMwMy0AYTltXV-2FrO67L7nu29Mmw-3D-3D) (June 23) cited RxO's CSO reporting 17% rejections and noting housing (20 to 25% of freight, 6 to 8 loads per new home) has not participated, a structural hole in demand.

**Debate 2: Boeing's new airplane, market ready or not?** [Aviation Week's Check 6](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjcfTlTDJbRI0TDWcirVZdJ6yiR0TG0LbiINjTGZXZG30cr1UdfKVKOml-2By8Xpk2L-2FyhvzZV-2FnqtCHWJJ9xVsulj0od9ocuQOGcq6Aot6G2OQ-3D-3D-UaQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFBjp3AjgncGGGWdFjK-2BvlJ4SXg1DAg5A-2F3RxgsC-2FrElzXrkDv-2BhdgX0RMHFzvoNDXLn08f6-2BtenH7IvniqxEd1Nasf6lhaV5WMEQT8G1CZXV-2FDnqsp-2Brt721-2FGUPFPq5HA-3D-3D) (June 26) surfaced a clear strategic debate. Boeing's position: airlines want today's aircraft improved, not a new plane; demand "has gone further back, maybe a year further back than it was last year." A Wall Street contact warned: "I am concerned that Boeing's commercial engineering muscle could atrophy given that they haven't done a clean sheet development program since the 787" (2003). Airbus's position: the market needs a new aircraft; moving first secures supply chain priority.

**Debate 3: Do tariffs help or hurt US industrial reshoring?** Treasury Secretary Bessent ([Squawk Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLNYK676eCsA47PTx-2Bd9SWt1rW1-2BnMiKufHxpR-2BoaGj4gsWqTfpGUKrpEEi34s0w7z7MonNCyFN4nm1p6lYwU3z4Ouw0S7lh9euiUkjJFEJg-3D-3DopfB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFCMe773UdcqixW-2BhLD5SwSZTXFKKt7t3MKa39vOe-2FsQQzEyDkhY1JgHU5peEUlOsDQZ1sJIwJ5EYf5HAIUJe8Im8QZ3SgNxm0VH5GjbGIkplpNOqf6Dgb8ZOi-2B64MaWsLg-3D-3D), June 24) argued tariffs are working. Against: ISM Chair Susan Spence ([Manufacturing Talk Radio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJEdWo7qCWpiKfYmCjB-2BdIRkOkmkIpBVm87FzINLsYWgABUe9Pn4GPuveaxEozyJBn2gZD5QTagFGS-2Bi-2Fjid6sHAaDRLrHqYEd1XsO96XrgA-3D-3DWMh3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFOPKEV6PQteu84BuLMnulmRqepTmKtdvhKqlVjF1KWG3SOcDVZMbvQtOzm8dY0WICau3G5hwwcdvLWn8JJjWQv-2Bcz0Zdcn-2FA0jcb2Ts-2Fxit5Nm-2BNLX9x8l8okTiNbwI0Sw-3D-3D), June 22) found only 15% of manufacturers actively looking at reshoring (down from 27%), and Cindy Allen ([Simply Trade](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjn7cLCee8Ahli1L89BhcUpoGlFy5MTWcDQ-2F3uB1E8CUMu840SOaoDUvsPjzCamivh2Mg8zF9ovQarrogjPYU0jZIYOqxuw40x0N-2Fi2y5xWrQ-3D-3D63zd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFJlFGug4JatrhwcKi4FpsKDvhfEU3UP7CC4VnZ6qKJAyS4fQVDLByGW4cO-2BgnXqmEtZwfdyRk5f8JuiZxSEkHwbtoza0r5myGs3Y4ZRl7aM-2FeY4jKEVhAFq6t1UbFTv9VA-3D-3D), June 26) estimated 100,000 manufacturing jobs lost. *Contested data point:* The June Flash PMI beat (55.7 vs. 51), [Mind the Macro](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRpm9Va8Tu5fRO-2BredxKhz7N7k-2B-2FCKRtJXgvllj3MdGM9peeBrItFvPhUmIs4de9gn4eHtimAmvp55NfGTTY6b47V-2Bkp9qK2f07Mh9ViR7rg-3D-3DAInT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFC58F-2BPS2PpB-2F-2BGPJGSfp368oO-2BGpk90wy7G2Xm1PnCasCASZ-2BCXmuQszAHWuwy7XHI-2F-2BePgTYaJRqgt2dpcHhXFTcSismZ1yVJS7e-2BXr4-2B9Pp3-2BN0mAeyGBCrMgJYofjQ-3D-3D) (June 26) argued this is a "headline illusion" reflecting inventory stockpiling, not real demand.

**Debate 4: FedEx bull vs. bear after earnings.** *Bull:* Barclays' Brandon Oglenski (via [CNBC Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJbISkXR2XqWX2A7SEMvcnl0-2FWlUD1kF12Em7Ahu2jsMgqGwdpZc7gpbDEJALLa4qI9Oq0Qm4TfJP-2FRrN1kHtbUSuoi8GhrSY-2FX399ggtklg-3D-3DWq6J_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFNrYTKT1QeyTabHTSJRCOpkAzX1d-2BP9nm5Mwu1cE9p8b39DPeL9sIpqWzxDfZe0sogGKaMcokRDiDmQUWDI0IAhZTS3SIEUO-2FQpRLMANIACUV-2B8fh2s37m4xW-2Bn9nqRZAw-3D-3D), June 23): $425 PT, "more than a double in earnings in three to five years," $2 to 3B cost-takeout from express-ground merger. Bloomberg's Lee Klaskow ([Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2FfCHCoPdGwJwQOPpB-2FcZcpsA-2FC9nzfWuXvYz8htaxA7j8FfNclDK-2BXPTy8Y-2FD64afvdurPdJQw3gMhaAmN-2BLJlTV5-2BdSFw7a9e4jVbwpRxQ-3D-3DdR66_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFB9T-2F07xUZ4gVPadokKaNlYwkraGLF0Cd2uEjw5W4d-2BZjryK90Yp4bqfSrOAswHO-2B2sbMeUdB-2BVBsPoiX1AldfL1eh1qHOZdMQ33jRNlgz4SEf8BQ-2FrBZKwyZviXRJEakQ-3D-3D), June 24): the modest-guidance-and-beat track record is a "positive reversal." *Bear/cautious:* Morningstar's Will Kerwin (via [The Morning Filter](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FkO4Y50P8Td8hGuohr36ns-2FEG2ncUIFJ77RewukagXdyuAVxP65ReYSTR4MW-2FT-2BhYzxRjDN3bdcYXj27r4RtqL-2FpVr4tdXr5UKhiT52TP1g-3D-3D2JZn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFPsW5nVf1qR9crqGTtd6tAQakZD63una96jVA-2FMR8wswtHdYIvl1-2F1-2BcSQMqWwhP1pMKK8bwh3LW93ihPUEsWuD0owyO2bZZjdwaGFWUCT-2BDd61vFmZWw66Jx-2FDjBTOAwA-3D-3D), June 22) had a bearish $257 fair value, calling FedEx "overvalued heading into earnings." [Brew Markets](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiqA5yFrVZjOfT4qpumG2Df1uijFZKdL8Ffa0jhFWOGUW4DaDq0KZiocWOZPohURQZGhWrMnnskeVPeHYAtBUlmOb4W-2F-2F7EBO0SuuYAB-2Fe2Ag-3D-3DnZBo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFBR4eoUlRsroWh8UcBqMxgFRTTtQH-2FG0bf4AWqtJ22XaoTHbfzILf1Qgv1JYQCEILjvAabTEOB6V6zGcQtXsYJ8RsVQ5b56LGbgXW7vipajvz81dKSQjZR8IZ7X4Un-2BUyA-3D-3D) (June 24): margin declined year-over-year due to MD-11 fleet grounding and $350 million in stranded costs from the freight spinoff.

**Debate 5: CCA, multi-vendor model vs. traditional primes.** [The Aerospace Advantage](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLhfRlLZD-2FhUs2sRyU2Qk0uzX3ezR1f4sdGXqXtrC8kp7Ur-2FGpfwBn-2BoqmwwBi1F1rxuJEtpZ81WxXZsgXrpIai7ZGAWkOeftI-2FE06N-2FmHfQ-3D-3DkqUC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFJq3R9vFD7Xinso8CyUbDK4Z-2FPWipr5N0cNWWgZgSPr1ZM-2BONys80AwuS3gDGdjjlkJXgBWGUE4sNA2GWGsy68Q3bMvfIxXZ68M-2Fu99jsof-2BHwo8UyF5J-2FN6wHORK0I9rg-3D-3D) (June 27): Mock-Cockman of Anduril argued: "It's a real departure from the previous existing winner-take-all model, and it's probably the right call. The positive is competition." Traditional primes (LMT, NOC), not selected for airframe production, remain in the autonomy pool but as one of many.

## 3. Stocks Mentioned

**BA (Boeing).** *Bull:* 737 ramping to 47/month (outperforming Airbus supply chain); record defense backlog; China Southern $3.6B freighter deal signals re-entry; Ortberg upbeat on culture repair and 737-10 and 777X certification. *Bear:* No near-term new narrowbody (demand "pushed back a year"); China deal is freighters only; engineering-muscle atrophy risk (no clean-sheet since 787/2003); defense write-off risk remains. *Source:* [Aviation Week's Check 6, "Why Airbus And Boeing's CEOs See The Future Differently"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjcfTlTDJbRI0TDWcirVZdJ6yiR0TG0LbiINjTGZXZG30cr1UdfKVKOml-2By8Xpk2L-2FyhvzZV-2FnqtCHWJJ9xVsulj0od9ocuQOGcq6Aot6G2OQ-3D-3Do_FE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFBDqamBd7KWgVz-2F9GLuI2o7B-2B0b32ZsVYoo-2FAh9ZcyCa7s83p8biyb7GLza3DIhPaA-2BLZxSHk2b3mput1abyMgG4lCxDTwVhlC5Hs7cYh3FfHrrrrSm60k-2F7bo38KPWZNw-3D-3D) (June 26); [Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg0QfNr2mI9qNzU5ADdeWE3utzJbBpd5U5kzRlUYc-2FfJCJTYVculuxLJoYY4tE5rdC9-2BMcDvkvuRqo4J7VKEaKnAKg1rSj-2BXU4A-2Fafv5apSVA-3D-3D2aG0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFAOZQoFsT3IpOoZHY6856Eg-2FaV1kOdbkOxkvt7lZFZSo03xDWyXq1LVvgcotV68vUC4yp5moUUwbO5T-2Fh-2FPPMTfu9z7RI4CU8gGKr3UBTZ-2BLhC295s1DrOXwbjcWl3X8hA-3D-3D) (June 26). *Speaker:* Kelly Ortberg (Boeing CEO); George Ferguson (Bloomberg Intelligence senior aerospace analyst). *Quote (Ferguson):* "Every order is a good order... but I would have liked to have seen things like narrow body orders. I'd like to see 737 orders going into China. That would get me more excited."

**FDX (FedEx).** *Bull:* Revenue/EPS beat (EPS +$0.36); US volumes +3%, pricing +10%; B2B strength from data centers; $2 to 3B network-merger cost-takeout; 20% EPS growth guided for rest of year; FedEx Freight spinoff up over 10% since June 1; better positioned than UPS. *Bear:* Express margin miss (8.9% vs. 9.2%); $350M stranded spinoff costs; MD-11 grounding; $18.10 guide below whisper; stock up 35 to 38% YTD into the print. *Source:* [Bloomberg Intelligence, "FedEx Slips After First Earnings Since Spinoff"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2FfCHCoPdGwJwQOPpB-2FcZcpsA-2FC9nzfWuXvYz8htaxA7j8FfNclDK-2BXPTy8Y-2FD64afvdurPdJQw3gMhaAmN-2BLJlTV5-2BdSFw7a9e4jVbwpRxQ-3D-3Dvite_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFHi32Fy5ICeBRfFL32lwxzHJgP0wZEaInU42pq19xhkJgUvk8Slnx-2BeqHi6YMLmCCJ7Q0vHWdYur5C9RGByqLPFL2K5MMeEWKABs9idfm446ZHIZSu0admgptMW93t83Ow-3D-3D) (June 24); [CNBC Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJbISkXR2XqWX2A7SEMvcnl0-2FWlUD1kF12Em7Ahu2jsMgqGwdpZc7gpbDEJALLa4qI9Oq0Qm4TfJP-2FRrN1kHtbUSuoi8GhrSY-2FX399ggtklg-3D-3DYMGm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFB5FOp33lQMTz6Zj0xHuUGcfcL7JF-2BHVKyUOOWZ13ICXZxsaGjQtr07GcBn5AvBqUJXlFxkVwqnmD2J4zZhL6ZFtTQTeVMedHiDpdirSXQf8-2F7s2BzZXSZw19jIGsMTu8w-3D-3D) (June 23); [Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOisAMe-2BJXAmYRXypxmHrYNapNEZ8oHXI-2B4Q1MD8gTPHaId1uTjv-2FMU8B4Tr-2Fyh4dFFf-2FzyRyPnYZIhQ94JaIqjpNmoSLWdLwMZKFLdQusVDCQ-3D-3Di3wT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFPscAfXtJR4hWhShi7HdRBa73jeG4cF8L7v0BT-2Fq6jyr2DGu9osNXIShSZ6kjF1ILW6KPw92HzQvdpuej6zfDuTYchLqiJeDByqdCCTXsz1AX8mJHAP1Ero-2B2YkOK-2FDI7A-3D-3D) (June 23); [The Morning Filter](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FkO4Y50P8Td8hGuohr36ns-2FEG2ncUIFJ77RewukagXdyuAVxP65ReYSTR4MW-2FT-2BhYzxRjDN3bdcYXj27r4RtqL-2FpVr4tdXr5UKhiT52TP1g-3D-3DrbR0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFDQaoV-2BzkThU0mU-2Bj5o0HXkBsYoNYidSXCuVARoLb68x9jXCusuzxqv9nonRAYqHiB-2B3ldPtZajybCeNSro-2FwLcuVH9gzjWJ-2BnqEVLowxsv45Fhx5LuYTp9-2FNbCNJbjWBw-3D-3D) (June 22); [WEALTHSTEADING Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgiucaqNnsN1eAahBbtO0xkLxHoah27RzX7mE9UcNL-2FeH-2BJQn470FAI7OMEI-2B7eWDyR-2F54Zd7lPeXZcTu9BGsDSZmoIajOXUwszzS160tprAA-3D-3DxQET_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFK3yGulJOe-2F1f-2FW9pegWF-2FuaHgdaLOx-2BTvHupzPdaxmgxaE-2B3khB648sKeachNNYuHjjHlt5eT8gl5N4PRc62Kv0ks3B9s7mwzoNz3bt0zkdW6xRrljU0mLnSCVe70s6Fw-3D-3D) (June 26). *Speaker:* Lee Klaskow (Bloomberg Intelligence); Brandon Oglenski (Barclays, $425 PT); Jonathan Chappelle; Will Kerwin (Morningstar, $257 FV, bearish). *Quote (Oglenski):* "We're talking about a company that's guiding to 20% EPS growth for the remainder of the year... this could be more than a double in earnings in three to five years. We have a $425 price target."

**UPS (United Parcel Service).** *Bull:* Aggressive pivot to pharma/healthcare logistics, $48M into 27 temperature-controlled facilities globally for GLP-1 drugs and advanced therapies. *Bear:* Network shrink driving fixed costs higher and potentially lowering service; Teamsters escalating over ROTI gig subsidiary; losing B2B ground to FedEx. *Source:* [FreightCasts, "Why 20,000 Mexican Truckers Just Lost Their Visas"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj6yLte7z3v-2Br5wRRo7iX1nXrJrSqehCSMyCm4sozZLk7Cj-2F36wS-2Bdtmwwm9sXVzBHfgaWm0TdBOPV4wtka056bfHfgbQ0tf3JT2rQ4f9PYKg-3D-3D4epD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFD9fSSdKjq5Mybrf7mVFotlExkdjecFUVNqHHequP4RLu6PZJL8Vx7ur3k8FzCD2DhkVeFB-2FkAm0wm9iQghuBpKyp593-2BCiL4iTIzVSWOmUvtYQFMovA0xb5LuOu86wZEg-3D-3D) (June 24); [WHAT THE TRUCK?!?](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhOzf81AAQdtoClYwHWR5hJpHSZh1EjLQtfkGcPsRHQ88FvAM4J1VyzKflYyH0-2FUvzMAHCj3ausVJh8GUNXhQIEQ-2FzrtpGq3YLIbYfa7gPN5Q-3D-3DkjD-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFJU9SQCWOhSNoFZywH0MqmZ5Mf6auOOGtP8uoY2LeO3mgbFgzvCC2MRXg33YxruUe45vzyK3cDjKBKPVAT6FrnJGMJtNbhm3f7AJaRC9x4dQOHxkOtSLXP-2BdFb5T1dLHOA-3D-3D) (June 22); [CNBC Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJbISkXR2XqWX2A7SEMvcnl0-2FWlUD1kF12Em7Ahu2jsMgqGwdpZc7gpbDEJALLa4qI9Oq0Qm4TfJP-2FRrN1kHtbUSuoi8GhrSY-2FX399ggtklg-3D-3DD_xh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFO2PM5edOX5Zv6Ys4H3XNSqg1tHGBoAqZOJTf-2Bt-2BrrL1yP3YaJ26SJff8-2FIM6ZOuaiGtxFtudvHCIwP4nyqRckk-2BCqLf3EPnUjuqRGApx6LFKuzSRBTjfbfv-2FWYpDAG5Xg-3D-3D) (June 23). *Speaker:* Keel Harkness (UPS VP Healthcare Strategy); Brandon Oglenski (Barclays). *Quote (Oglenski):* "UPS is undergoing a network shrink activity right now that's really driving their fixed cost higher... objectively potentially lower service for them too."

**CSX (CSX Corporation).** *Bull:* $495M Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore opened after 131 years, enabling double-stack intermodal on the I-95 East Coast Corridor; expected about $1B/yr economic benefit, 137M gallons of truck fuel saved, more port calls (weekly calls rose 12 to 15 in 2025). *Source:* FreightCasts, "Why 20,000 Mexican Truckers Just Lost Their Visas" (June 24). *Speaker:* Maryland Governor Wes Moore (ribbon-cutting); FreightCasts host. *Quote (Moore):* "This is a transformative day for the Port of Baltimore... generating about $1 billion annually in economic benefits."

**LMT (Lockheed Martin).** *Bull (long-term):* "Compelling long-term thesis around European rearmament, NATO expansion, and hypersonic missile defense." *Bear (near-term):* 27% pullback from highs; two consecutive earnings misses (Q4'25 and Q1'26, about 11.5% earnings decline, zero revenue growth); F-16/C-130 production bottlenecks; not selected for CCA airframe. *China:* Banned from sales by Chinese regime-linked entities in retaliation for Pentagon blacklisting. *Source:* InvestTalk, "AI's Spending Paradox..." (June 24); NTD Evening News (June 22). *Speaker:* InvestTalk host; Jack Bradley (NTD News). *Quote (InvestTalk):* "LMT trades at average forward P/E after a 27% pullback from recent highs, with a compelling long-term thesis around European rearmament, NATO expansion, and hypersonic missile defense, but... near-term execution risk... and two consecutive earnings misses present headwinds."

**RTX (RTX / Raytheon).** *Bull:* Collins (RTX) selected as one of three CCA mission-autonomy software vendors, a multi-year contract in the fastest-growing defense program by dollar value. *Bear:* Banned by Chinese regime-linked entities in retaliation for Pentagon blacklisting. *Source:* [Aviation Week's Check 6, "What's Next For CCAs After U.S. Air Force Downselect?"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjcfTlTDJbRI0TDWcirVZdJ6yiR0TG0LbiINjTGZXZG30cr1UdfKVKOml-2By8Xpk2L-2FyhvzZV-2FnqtCHWJJ9xVsulj0od9ocuQOGcq6Aot6G2OQ-3D-3DOQzI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFFMKRl96xcfKSDKFtLpcpeGxPSDz4ZQvP5V8tH81Hy-2Bl1HZv1IVKXAGbrG4uzdevE4s3f8WEG4tqnh0HP8BFekdUJNS7QpsRqRcgpErGz-2FYgJPVCu-2BaNOwMgkwx-2F8snrXw-3D-3D) (June 23); NTD Evening News (June 22). *Speaker:* Brian Everstine (Aviation Week Pentagon editor); Jack Bradley (NTD News).

**GEV (GE Vernova).** *Context:* Cited as an AI-power-demand beneficiary (gas turbines / data center power); Vineyard Wind project flagged for GE Vernova turbine performance issues. No detailed investment thesis articulated this week. *Source:* [Squawk on the Street 11am Hour](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi0kbJOOJAxd9WhVS0JDmC-2Fylx0JJZl5q5XFse80XGN7Ce0MwI-2FveLgsB9W5m5ivtgMXnmb82oSeZSQMqpYYWc6HhZkg8mDonDhxjoGi3s3UQ-3D-3DD5IJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFBZEbhNB6eWCQovXuL2tjffQ3dkzADxRUoA4u3Ag3w6ulgGr7dXn5MWgWTh9Br3WPX97guO9D31AX5SFgzMc8wx2uqNdZHXhasaLqk8ONzW8gFvrAcg2XYk9LbI1xGC85Q-3D-3D) (June 24); [The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJbISkXR2XqWX2A7SEMvcnl0-2FWlUD1kF12Em7Ahu2jsMgqGwdpZc7gpbDEJALLa4qI9Oq0Qm4TfJP-2FRrN1kHtbUSuoi8GhrSY-2FX399ggtklg-3D-3DWMh3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFB5FOp33lQMTz6Zj0xHuUGcfcL7JF-2BHVKyUOOWZ13ICXZxsaGjQtr07GcBn5AvBqUJXlFxkVwqnmD2J4zZhL6ZFtTQTeVMedHiDpdirSXQf8-2F7s2BzZXSZw19jIGsMTu8w-3D-3D) (June 23). *Speaker:* CNBC hosts; Uptime Wind Energy hosts.

**HON (Honeywell).** *Context:* Honeywell Aerospace added to the S&P 500 (replacing Conagra) effective June 29, 2026; also met with the president regarding defense munitions production and buyback restrictions. *Source:* CNBC Fast Money (June 23); Squawk on the Street 11am Hour (June 24). *Speaker:* Mackenzie Sigalos (CNBC); CNBC Squawk on the Street hosts.

**MMM (3M).** *Bull:* Signed a long-term supply agreement with Airbus for thermal and acoustic insulation on the A220 program, strengthens aerospace position. *Source:* The Minnesota Business Podcast (June 26). *Speaker:* Minnesota Business Podcast host.

**MP (MP Materials).** *Bear:* China directly banned MP Materials from receiving Chinese rare earth products, significant operational risk given China's dominant processing role (zero commercial-scale heavy RE refining outside China as of April 2025). *Source:* NTD Evening News (June 22); Bloomberg Businessweek (June 23). *Speaker:* Jack Bradley (NTD News); Gracelyn Baskarin (CSIS director). *Quote:* "USA Rare Earths and MP Materials are competing to build domestic US supply chains but face technological complexity and long timelines (5+ years to separation, decades for mines)."

**F (Ford Motor Company).** *Bear:* Faces a $2 billion tariff bill on imported parts from stacked tariffs (fentanyl, China 301s, steel/aluminum over 50%), "evaporates about 20% of profit." *Source:* [Decoder with Nilay Patel, "Rewind: CEO Jim Farley on Ford's EV Gamble"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj50pE1Xg5rPQsH5jCaY805DnAoB72mGDCuJzvQ99xY-2BqFjFqHfTeJ2pOqHdI7SV2eRlEm34wAzJ16sn3C8xAha9c5vCAMsa2HLes6QoEYCLA-3D-3DIH-U_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUYvv6aPrHg9T13XeatpUr1CkcpduC3kW5ULQzW-2FgKwFJLzqBItSNauvQOGLD6iH8ft5x6Pypw0MQAxTLBvTP8Pl1o5hkwaLG-2BT9NoBqdXd-2BJ4D7iJD7spiv7ukS9-2Bda5kVqsk7DWwKebCVsvXJhZIPzniNtzkuQtM5jxUsBYOxZw-3D-3D) (June 25). *Speaker:* Jim Farley (Ford CEO). *Quote:* "We face a $2 billion tariff bill on imported parts... which evaporates about 20% of profit."

**UNP (Union Pacific) / NSC (Norfolk Southern).** *Context:* Rob Liss of MAKA Logistics discussed a potential UP-NS merger, arguing it could create new cross-Mississippi intermodal rail lanes that don't currently exist and pull freight off highways. He took a bearish structural view on long-haul trucking (autonomy displacing drivers within 20 years). *Source:* The FreightCaviar Podcast, "The Deal That Could Take Freight Off the Highway" (June 23). *Speaker:* Rob Liss (MAKA Logistics).

### Micro-cap / Foreign-listed Critical-minerals Names

**GMTL (Guardian Metals) / WSRIF (Western Star Resources):** Tungsten plays as defense-driven critical-mineral investments (China about 80% of global tungsten; US produced zero since 2015); GMTL received $6.2M government funding and uplisted to NYSE. The David Lin Report (June 23); Palisades Gold Radio (June 25). *Speaker:* John Feneck.

**Energy Fuels / USA Rare Earths (context):** Named as government-backstopped rare-earth investments by Nick Hodge on The KE Report (June 25): "the problems that we face with rare earths are only getting worse in terms of trade deals with the rest of the world, specifically China."

**Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML):** High-grade antimony (40% ore) and tungsten in Idaho; $47M raised; NASDAQ listing pending; positioned for US defense industrial base. Company Interviews, "Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML)" (June 25). *Speaker:* Craig Lindsay (CEO).

**Landis+Gyr (LAND:SW):** Grid-metering / edge-compute "grid sensor" (Ravello) positioned in a "$700 billion to $1 trillion" digital-grid opportunity within "trillions in grid upgrades through 2035." Age of Adoption, "The Backbone of Electrification" (June 23). *Speaker:* Lisa Magnuson.

Referenced in passing/context only (no substantive thesis): BNSF (Berkshire), CPKC, CEG (Constellation Energy), VST (Vistra), generic nuclear/power contexts.

## Coverage Notes

**Iran war impact on industrials:** The US-Iran ceasefire/MOU signed during the week drove diesel down 22.7 cents (second-largest single-week drop in EIA history), lowering carrier fuel costs and beginning to normalize freight economics. This was the dominant exogenous macro variable affecting freight, fuel, and industrial input costs this week.

**Housing/construction:** Housing starts in May hit the lowest since February 2019 (annualized 1.18M units, -15.4% MoM), per FTR State of Freight (June 23), cited as why the freight demand side is incomplete (housing is about 20 to 25% of freight, 6 to 8 loads per new home).

**HVAC/building products:** No investment-grade podcast commentary on specific public HVAC/building-products tickers (Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Johnson Controls) this week; the space was dominated by contractor/service content.

**Machinery/conglomerates (non-defense):** No substantive investment-grade discussion of Emerson, Parker Hannifin, Illinois Tool Works, Eaton, Danaher, or Roper this week. GE Vernova and Honeywell were referenced only contextually.