Newsletter · · Ashutosh Agarwal

Goldman Hits $1.15 Trillion and the Capital Markets Reopening Goes Broad - The Capital-Markets Reopening - Week of June 23-30, 2026

Goldman's record M&A pace, US equity issuance up 141%, and SpaceX's index fast-track confirmed a broad capital-markets reopening, even as private-credit stress got named. Our synthesis for the week of June 23-30, 2026.

The Capital-Markets Reopening

Week of June 23-30, 2026: Goldman Hits $1.15 Trillion and the Capital Markets Reopening Goes Broad

TL;DR

  • The reopening stopped being a vibe and became a league table. Goldman has advised on $1.15 trillion of M&A year-to-date, the fastest any bank has ever reached $1T, a full month ahead of its 2021 record, with US M&A deal value up 63% and US equity issuance up 141% year-over-year. This is the broad-based confirmation the bulls were missing last week.
  • SpaceX keeps printing. It followed its record IPO with a $20B+ investment-grade bond deal and now gets fast-tracked into the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, Goldman analysts peg the forced ETF buying at up to $60B. A clean, repeatable win for NDAQ; a fee annuity for GS/MS.
  • But the credit pressure point is now named, not theoretical. A KKR co-head calls deals and exits "slow," a top CLO investor is openly worried about AI-disintermediation in leveraged loans, and one large private-credit fund just saw 17% redemptions. The equity window is wide open; the leverage engine is wheezing.

What's New

Ranked by what's most actionable for a trading book.

1. Goldman's record advisory run puts hard numbers on the cycle. On Market Maker, "Goldman Sachs Breaks M&A Records | Investment Banking Boom" (June 29), the hosts walked through DealLogic data showing GS at $1.15T of M&A advice YTD, "the fastest to get to a trillion dollars of advice for any bank ever… a whole month faster" than its 2021 record, with JP Morgan "way, way behind at $720 billion." Globally, "M&A deal value is up 40%… 63% up in the US, 87% up in Europe," and "equity capital markets up 73%. In the US, it's up 141%." GS, JPM and MS also "got mandates on Anthropic and… on OpenAI… They're locked in." Why it moves numbers: this is pundit analysis, not an operator, but it is the cleanest evidence yet that the fee pool is broadening past one marquee IPO, directly bullish GS and MS advisory and ECM.

2. SpaceX gets the index machine cranked up, again. On The Prof G Pod, "Is Wall Street Rigging the Game for SpaceX?" (June 29), Scott Galloway detailed Nasdaq's new "fast entry rules", top-40 mega-caps added "just 15 trading days after IPO, down from the historic 3-month seasoning period", and cited Goldman's estimate of "up to $60 billion in force buying." Squawk on the Street (June 29) confirmed inclusion lands July 7. Why it matters: this is a structural, repeatable listings-and-volume win for NDAQ, with OpenAI and Anthropic next in the queue. (Pundit/journalist commentary; Galloway's "convenient means of creating demand" is the skeptic's footnote.)

3. An exchange operator says 2026 could be the biggest capital-raise year ever. On Brew Markets, "Fighting for the Biggest IPOs" (June 29), Nasdaq Vice Chairman Bob McHughie said prognosticators think 2026 "could be the largest capital raise year in history," that Nasdaq has "won 80 percent of the IPOs over the past five years," and pointed to Walmart's switch ("the largest transfer in exchange history") and Comcast spinning Versant onto the exchange. Why it matters: this is the single best operator data point of the week for NDAQ's listings franchise, straight from the executive suite.

4. The leveraged-credit engine is the named risk now. On The CLO Investor Podcast, Ep. 36 (June 23), MetLife's Laila Kollmorgen (Global Head of CLO Tranche Investing) flagged "significant bifurcation in the leverage loan market" and a specific fear: "It's not just software. It's actually AI disintermediation… when you have this massive issuance in a sector, typically that's going to be the sector where you're next going to get your highest level of defaults." On RenMac, "Flying Blind" (June 26), Neil Dutta noted "17 percent redemptions" at a large private-credit fund ("It was Apollo's, I believe") and concluded "the pressure point in our view is probably in private credit." Why it matters: this is operator and institutional color, not punditry, and it caps the sponsor-driven half of the boutique fee pool.

5. Sponsors confirm the freeze, but flag the thaw. On Dry Powder (June 23), KKR's Pete Stavros said "new deal activity is slow… US is pretty slow… exits are tougher to come by," and that auctions that drew "8 bidders" in 2021–22 now draw "a few." Yet he also said 2026 "will probably be our largest exit year ever in private equity at KKR." Why it matters: operator commentary, the sponsor machine is slow at the margin but the biggest manager is still monetizing, which is the read-through advisory boutiques need.

The Debate

Durable, multi-year reopening. The bull case got materially stronger this week. It is no longer one IPO and a hopeful regulator, it is $1.15T of Goldman M&A advice at record pace, US ECM up 141%, a Nasdaq vice chairman calling for the largest capital-raise year in history, J.P. Morgan healthcare bankers reporting "$150 billion raised… in 10 days" and "the most active year for biotech IPO activity since 2021" (Making Sense, June 26), and KKR guiding to a record exit year. Multiple independent operators, multiple product lines. That is what a cycle turn looks like.

Fragile head-fake. The skeptics own the financing plumbing, and they got louder. A hawkish Warsh Fed now has markets pricing "~75% chance of two hikes" this year (LPL Research, June 23); PIMCO's Tiffany Wilding warns the Fed's retreat from guidance "could contribute to tighter financial conditions, even if the Fed refrains from… raising rates" (PIMCO Pod, June 25); Amundi's Greg Pesk notes credit is at "a very, very expensive level" with a coming "trillion dollars of net new… IG" issuance from hyperscalers to digest (The Credit Edge, June 25). And former SEC chair Gary Gensler warns SpaceX-style names trade "at 100, 140 times revenues without earnings", when lockups unwind, "you see downward pressure on… the whole market" (Bloomberg Talks, June 23).

My read, unchanged but with more conviction: the equity window is genuinely, broadly open; the credit-funded sponsor engine is throttled by rates and by emerging private-credit stress. That split keeps favoring elite equity-underwriting and strategic-M&A advisory (GS, MS, NDAQ) over volume leveraged finance.

Stocks in Play

  • Goldman Sachs (GS). Bull: the cycle's biggest single beneficiary, $1.15T M&A at record pace, $58B of ECM, locked OpenAI/Anthropic mandates, SpaceX underwrite plus the index force-buy it modeled (Market Maker). Just hiked the dividend post-stress-test (Dividend Talk, June 27). Bear: most levered to the financing slowdown if private-credit stress spreads. Catalyst: Q2 print in July, IB revenue, backlog, and any color on the AI-mandate pipeline.
  • Morgan Stanley (MS). Bull: SpaceX co-underwriter (its bankers wore the greenshoe too), top-three M&A mandate holder, dividend hike, and the wealth franchise as ballast. Bear: rate-driven trading swings under a hawkish Fed. Catalyst: Q2 markets revenue and wealth net-new-asset flows.
  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Bull: higher-for-longer and rate volatility are tailwinds for rates/FX futures and data; record issuance feeds fixed-income data demand. Bear: mortgage-data segment is exposed to a frozen housing market. Catalyst: Q2 transaction-vs-recurring-data mix. (No direct ICE podcast coverage this week, a genuine gap, not a signal.)
  • Nasdaq (NDAQ). Bull: the listings winner, 80% IPO win rate, SpaceX joining the NDX July 7 with ~$60B of forced buying, OpenAI/Anthropic in the queue, and a vice chairman calling 2026 a possible record capital-raise year (Brew Markets). Bear: the "fast entry" rule invites the rigging-the-game critique (Prof G) and potential governance scrutiny. Catalyst: whether OpenAI/Anthropic pick Nasdaq this fall, and July 7 index mechanics.
  • Evercore (EVR). Bull: a record strategic-M&A tape is its bread and butter; Lazard's jump from 12th to 6th in league tables shows boutiques are taking share. Bear: the sponsor half of the fee pool stays capped while private credit is stressed. Catalyst: Q2 advisory backlog and MD productivity. (No EVR-specific coverage this week.)
  • Moelis (MC). Bull: a pure-play with restructuring/liability-management optionality if private-credit "deterioration" (RenMac) turns into distress, a natural hedge to the reopening. Bear: no trading ballast; most exposed to a deal-volume air pocket. Catalyst: Q2 restructuring mix. (No MC-specific coverage this week.)
  • Jefferies (JEF). Bull: leveraged-finance plus advisory leverage to a true reopening, and the sector's first calendar tell. Bear: most directly in the path of any lev-fin issuance slowdown. Catalyst: its off-cycle quarter, watch it as the group's earliest read. (No JEF-specific coverage this week.)

Read-throughs

  • Boutique advisors (EVR/MC/JEF): the strategic-deal tape is strong and boutiques are gaining share (Lazard 12th to 6th), but the sponsor-driven half stays capped by rates and credit stress. Favor advisors levered to large strategic deals; MC has the cleanest restructuring hedge.
  • Leveraged finance & private credit: the bear case has names now, AI-disintermediation risk in leveraged loans (software is 16% of the index, 95% single-B/CCC), 17% redemptions at a large private-credit fund, recoveries down to 60% on liability-management exercises. Headwind for lev-fin desks; building tailwind for restructuring.
  • PE sponsors monetizing exits: Stavros says deal activity is "slow" and fundraising "difficult," but KKR is guiding to its "largest exit year ever", the top of the sponsor stack is thawing even as the broad middle stays frozen. Selective advisory pull-through.
  • Exchange listings/data: SpaceX is a repeatable win for Nasdaq (bond deal, then index inclusion), and the hyperscaler IG issuance wave ("zero to 10%" of the IG index per Amundi) feeds ICE/NDAQ fixed-income data over time.

What Changed vs. Last Week

Last week's baseline: the equity window was open for marquee names (SpaceX), Warsh turned hawkish, and the credit-funded sponsor engine was slowing. Three updates:

  • The reopening broadened, upgrade. Last week was one idiosyncratic IPO and a cheerleading regulator. This week it's hard league-table breadth: GS $1.15T at record pace, US ECM +141%, biotech IPOs at the most-active pace since 2021. The "fragile head-fake" critique on equity is weaker than it was seven days ago.
  • The Fed got more hawkish, not less. Last week markets priced ~69% odds of one September hike; this week it's ~75% odds of two hikes, and operators (PIMCO) now argue conditions tighten even without a hike. The rate headwind to lev-fin intensified.
  • Private-credit stress went from a chart to named events. Last week it was issuance halving; this week it's a specific 17% redemption at an Apollo fund, explicit AI-disintermediation fear from a major CLO investor, and "the pressure point is private credit." The bear thesis sharpened, but note defaults remain near a cycle low (~2.2%) and the new IG issuers are free-cash-flow positive, so this is slow-burn, not acute.
  • New this week: SpaceX escalated from IPO to $20B+ IG bond and a July 7 Nasdaq 100 fast-track; GS and MS hiked dividends after the stress test; KKR's "largest exit year ever" partially contradicts last week's "exits are frozen" read.