# Micron Out-Earns Nvidia as Memory Reprices Toward 2028 - The AI Capex Tracker - June 30, 2026

> The AI Capex Tracker for June 30, 2026. Micron's record print repriced memory as infrastructure and pulled the debate back to supply, while Qualcomm's no-HBM data-center debut and a 2028 capacity overhang opened the next front.

## The AI Capex Tracker

### June 30, 2026: Micron Out-Earns Nvidia as Memory Reprices Toward 2028

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**Issue: Tuesday, June 30, 2026**

## TL;DR

- **Micron's print didn't just beat, it repriced memory as infrastructure.** DRAM up ~60% quarter-on-quarter, NAND up ~80%, HBM up 300%+ year-on-year, gross margins now 75–85% versus a historical low-teens average. Specialists think Micron may post *more operating profit than Nvidia* this quarter. ([The Circuit, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYNPzchQ8gcbQOancEl7Sa0pO2PA-2BvOT3G7wW0kLgDafVGL011nTDOu5clTxysRAAfHa3nPaWEk0-2Bd-2BslH-2BD3biV1Hjb6CQ6tFvfVqx240Vg-3D-3DZgMo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzb7aGB2BZScSQJLSrocozIWQKQI7MpQTfZ-2FiKd-2FDJqCvaUyoyRycIitGM3pvTyy-2BSbp3uHxQlqkuZvC2h7MxOj-2Bzjajgm59n11-2BLkg5pPlA02kl3-2B7JtLHVI7gsMwWhCkA-3D-3D); [TBPN, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjji9pF3cWw9eVa-2BMPpiPXxDcpP-2Fgr0fx1RK3I9YyptpJwBmWUVP-2FKCdH-2FzEOUwWeucfrmjTLCsTsSMCnc8H2MDJOcy7K32C22J-2FtQXrObvvw-3D-3DZmca_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzXUFO05rllKFYvNxYCPs36rpfmGhowKbNen6-2FQNx8N6l2WZIpRnm7uoHltuS-2FLBEVmmuZHwmMHIGVBrCGxeMAJRJGyOzwQjX-2FDvIpdfKO1WsGmPpoO5svFxtQX37LBROKw-3D-3D))
- **The first credible supply-war risk just appeared on the tape, for 2028.** Street models have Micron nearly matching SK Hynix wafer output by 2028–29 (from ~20% share), Samsung "leaked" a hundreds-of-billions capacity plan, and the China second-source (CXMT) is closing the yield gap. The bull case is locked long-term contracts; the bear case is that memory is still a commodity. ([The Circuit, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYNPzchQ8gcbQOancEl7Sa0pO2PA-2BvOT3G7wW0kLgDafVGL011nTDOu5clTxysRAAfHa3nPaWEk0-2Bd-2BslH-2BD3biV1Hjb6CQ6tFvfVqx240Vg-3D-3DdAdu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzdvuk13SkyurA1bizpXTsaj7q7xocvvjghjYv3KpaSs9xgvs5s1DxGjxbz4dtFNVP7uEWwtj0xfR3ehHEV0Au7vEFkC-2BWS0OjHovJee6ozHv1-2F-2BxWQIyC5FhQURaaBNz-2BA-3D-3D); [Real Vision Macro Mondays, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOEZu1cE-2BdhA84m0Q-2F0rbni7AC-2BiAF-2B0RJNNFHSRd4SlOCevf8pwT-2BFATnQcl8zhD1pmkrQUbWXVEKls-2FsbjXLrRBakpfXvN2pl-2FU7mhww-2Bg-3D-3DpuIn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzT4MjEBMxUvfAZ0OGIHzEF-2FDCeeS18Mgz6FlpzSgZV-2FzrPWRHlRreKTOtVp0wEE9Kz52Vs-2F-2FPXEom7wCdNBBL0e07aawC0Z1PeVNe9fJKhscZnibmpq71TdFNulrTFtVZg-3D-3D))
- **Qualcomm debuted in the data center, without HBM, and Microsoft and Meta signed up.** A no-HBM, compute-under-LPDDR architecture at "dramatically lower cost," plus an 800G to 3.3T networking roadmap. A direct shot at the memory tax and Nvidia's HBM markup. ([The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3D1I0N_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzVifcxbUbgt65gArwqzuYfGarrKkiYMaKLZJNpEX4WzJAv5Uhz-2FOX8lC5knqyU-2BbnymbPJZdNXEHGtY-2B6VSj8OEl31l1m5OT2zPbnZrW6qkyhKescmRiHOPKB3iRfROG4A-3D-3D))

## What's New

Last issue the tape was about *who pays for the tokens.* Micron's record-book print swung it hard back to supply, and forced the bears to find a new argument.

**1. Micron reframed the entire AI trade as a memory trade.** [The Circuit, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYNPzchQ8gcbQOancEl7Sa0pO2PA-2BvOT3G7wW0kLgDafVGL011nTDOu5clTxysRAAfHa3nPaWEk0-2Bd-2BslH-2BD3biV1Hjb6CQ6tFvfVqx240Vg-3D-3Dfoc8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzdQEkxyMQgZk4ydYWK46oHU6aR5rVPZxtEEHizhvPbI966CwUYx6RtOenegSu7Jh7KP695CIboIg-2BUCLREvv9u70bSv1rFHCNp8jue7s3VCq47MI9XwBD2P7-2FeX2-2F-2Bv4-2Fg-3D-3D), Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg (specialist semi analysts).

The number that stops you: **prices up 60% quarter-on-quarter**, on top of contracts already signed at doubled levels; HBM is "over 300%" year-on-year. Gross margins are now **75–85%**, versus a historical *low teens* for Micron and *high single digits* for SK Hynix and Samsung, "higher than Nvidia, higher than TSMC." The pivot is now explicit: *"everybody caring about Nvidia to everybody caring about Micron"* ([The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DHCdQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzYjzRX6pnXynI3yiNsTn4k4bjeyP2orHvWfBh9CKck7Cb4czv35xLTgFBW0ETJ4gF-2FxCow9VIpRPHEoX45DWqVl7QfW2DKN70q65bK3XbhwPl1QQm8b3Sp3B6vUIMZpDOQ-3D-3D)). If you don't own memory, you don't own the trade.

**2. The bull-vs-bear line moved to one word: commodity.** [The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DwGlF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzbsu293t3ykMN0TUtC2S-2FCY3NfiUvaiX0lB8hmIGXZKHOo1uthlAUXyHtQOfOhkWZZOami5EgXDOvvqPbXci5s6JeVEh6yMY2u9EVazMUFwdJKnVVAg1h0vph1JnVu40ZQ-3D-3D), Patrick Moorhead and Daniel Newman.

Moorhead, 21 years inside memory makers, is the skeptic: long-term agreements *"very much signal that you're a commodity just in a current era of strength,"* with new supply coming (China DDR5 ramps 2H26) and prices that *"will get back to more than normal."* The bull counter: customers are **locking multi-year pricing into 2030**, which they'd never do expecting a crash. Memory, says Newman, now *"checks every box of strategic: supply constrained, technology-moated, demand inelastic, sold on long-term contracts."*

**3. The 2028 overhang is the real new risk.** [The Circuit, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYNPzchQ8gcbQOancEl7Sa0pO2PA-2BvOT3G7wW0kLgDafVGL011nTDOu5clTxysRAAfHa3nPaWEk0-2Bd-2BslH-2BD3biV1Hjb6CQ6tFvfVqx240Vg-3D-3DoLaJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzRQv4UYRNJWDJ3L7zWYK-2FrzA59juPARu4dIXaiAVm6AT3jB1of6OxhtsLXwJ4tBfCvbhG0r7DB3bwHs1Cp-2BJfrCdgSOBctjHuq3qjg4hO1xI0FbvexAmEv6tpnQStjgQkQ-3D-3D).

Here's the trade-killer to watch. Street models show **Micron doing almost as many wafers as SK Hynix in 2028–29**, potentially *doubling* its ~20% share, which "would completely shift the balance of power." The temptation to grab share is enormous; the risk is it *"would lead to war"* with two rivals who have "infinitely more capital," and Samsung just deliberately "leaked" a hundreds-of-billions capacity plan as a reminder it can swamp the market. The hosts want Micron to pre-empt this by signaling an equilibrium gross-margin floor (~65–70%) to keep the cartel polite. Until it does, 2028 supply is the overhang.

**4. Qualcomm walked into the data center, and skipped HBM entirely.** [The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DVOIm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzR-2BnTfmYBWz6ue6ttN6-2FWoJuyOf8cIdm9aHBQkCn-2FZFOwLwReheOjJrJ-2B-2FF87f6SIBxZZdzFqJAoYu-2BuyW02UvfOxzJ9kBjmmv8WAjnhmAn4Z346u1UKsZ-2BxSfwzPGMP0g-3D-3D).

Three data-center CPUs (head node, general-purpose, agentic) and a "compute-under-the-LPDDR-stack" architecture that does "very similar things as HBM at a dramatically lower cost," **Microsoft and Meta have signed up**, chip taped out. The bigger surprise was networking, via Alpha Wave: 800G in production today, 1.6T in '26–'27, **3.3T optical for 2028.** Qualcomm doubled its 2029 non-handset revenue target (20% to ~40% CAGR, $22B to $40B). Crucially: *"Qualcomm's not even using HBM,"* a direct cost-arbitrage threat to the memory tax and to Nvidia's HBM markup.

**5. Google quietly throttled Meta on Gemini capacity.** [TBPN, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjji9pF3cWw9eVa-2BMPpiPXxDcpP-2Fgr0fx1RK3I9YyptpJwBmWUVP-2FKCdH-2FzEOUwWeucfrmjTLCsTsSMCnc8H2MDJOcy7K32C22J-2FtQXrObvvw-3D-3DHsLi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzQNpCPZclIcndWR8qxOwMptR-2FKlDCHp2hXsMzah2fB6Kyf6-2Fy5M0nUymyOzncr6je8SHjH8Smcbg554f5Gv00YHPZXbfyNtZw3d6DBn43N-2B-2FWcspKnqaTFZmkZaBrFGOqA-3D-3D).

Per reporting cited on the show, Google told Meta around March it *"could not provide all the Gemini capacity"* it wanted, "disrupting and delaying some of Meta's internal AI projects." Read it as the hosts did: *"extremely bullish for Google,"* Cloud is capacity-constrained, not demand-constrained. Meta, separately, is now pushing staff to be "more efficient with AI tokens."

## The Debate

**Bull, memory has been structurally repriced, and the contracts prove it.** Spot DRAM has *accelerated* since Micron's quarter closed, with no drawdown ([Real Vision Macro Mondays, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOEZu1cE-2BdhA84m0Q-2F0rbni7AC-2BiAF-2B0RJNNFHSRd4SlOCevf8pwT-2BFATnQcl8zhD1pmkrQUbWXVEKls-2FsbjXLrRBakpfXvN2pl-2FU7mhww-2Bg-3D-3DN9fL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzZBE4pGFdHgWyCv7DmIfBZV77hyGH9C6V84Kf9mwuAuDoFBFfWVV6j8xK-2B4e36S0i-2FzMA9agckRY-2BIwcUGtgiPI-2BIqEb-2F4043JLu8F5lkzBnGKT4Dv9NQBgoHHOBALOHmQ-3D-3D)); customers are pricing into 2030; and Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for access to *blacklisted* Chinese memory (CXMT) just to hold its costs down ([Morning Market Briefing, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2FEVmnRbNzbX4ortyhu-2FEOFmcpIhhgepg100ohHCzgZZITlBNIQbTbWKZmseADE61JXN2uSWm7QLLI1qE7iGrNDtrYepNePjU6SmHMw5EQIw-3D-3DiPtM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzVZvz4OO1KoLaAUcaS7shWv9y0J7eq9inhEJ-2FqYIbwqqeD8JW007gcpu7pEG3qI5VCR6IB0LFa75vbJgnYqXifr343D0wbTq08wjyQGVZuH7CnC3tupdhN2vDa1PjskN9w-3D-3D)). That's not a glut.

**Bear, it's still a commodity cycle, and the earnings are partly engineered.** Moorhead's "commodity in a current era of strength" plus the 2028 capacity wall is a cleaner short setup than last week's demand argument. And the circular-financing worry persists: he flags the new strategic agreements as *"vendor financing… it flatters the optics, but it's not durable free cash flow"* ([The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DpaA6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzRj3BaGcBpI0Fd-2BDWFH6epdOJsUUZxLBxFgF6IkIlpOx89iiJaYaomvaeWAF8Vztk0mRSr5j3Jk5f2Li0W1O9o-2B5YGIZwoULASgeYhFcYWdGy6R0dTbu9-2BG3crw01kZNCQ-3D-3D)), the same circularity Man Group's Ed Cole called an *"earnings bubble more than a valuation bubble"* ([Merryn Talks Money, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj7wBMzQp-2Bz-2BFdKxxXyZuSrUAXQgRvthKNezBASJAX4E6-2BOKv7E7UwJvc5c-2FHdEdIUu24RF41wK9BFhMzVERu8LUIzXdZhg6QxbAEdRRSBnkg-3D-3DC-n8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzYHtP-2BV7G7Az83OQ4aHnea0ibPyvDtPEft1WTwuBpklw0dn4XUveonUzOI6NlhIQhDrNHpK-2BZ-2BHyQ19MsFGhbFknb0fgW42RZ-2BC89Q9OWIN2VpwjhXCMoPO-2BISww9tL9Bw-3D-3D)). Meanwhile input costs are hitting model producers who *can't* pass them on: *"either losses will be bigger or higher prices will be needed"* ([TBPN, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjji9pF3cWw9eVa-2BMPpiPXxDcpP-2Fgr0fx1RK3I9YyptpJwBmWUVP-2FKCdH-2FzEOUwWeucfrmjTLCsTsSMCnc8H2MDJOcy7K32C22J-2FtQXrObvvw-3D-3D6ARH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzaCzEYFRC3G-2Fq8HUC6w4IAdXvQkFbMNiSYUu7TY7B-2BdG6r6ofIw29SqOP-2Fo46dFIOa-2F9mNKkxfa1I4rhdrLnsI7Iaucq4B8Pho8m4vum4goYyyRIgGEVJhSIOhPun5qrlA-3D-3D)).

**Sell signals to watch:** Micron (or a competitor) making an *aggressive 2028 share grab* on price; memory *spot* finally rolling over; a hyperscaler confirming token-spend caps at July earnings; or Qualcomm's no-HBM architecture winning a *named, volume* deal.

## Stocks in Play

**NVDA.** *Bull:* still the compute behind the trade; just raised **$25B in IG bonds, 3–4x oversubscribed**, "a flex," not a need. *Bear:* "dead money" on the tape, and its ~70% markup on bought HBM looks exposed when AMD, Broadcom and now Qualcomm don't pay that tax. *Next:* TSMC mid-July; Q2 in August. ([The Six Five](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DMG2r_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzb1fBWexMnrafYfrV3h2gStg1zFY9O1BalmB3IRXJZhFaGey3Mgq2AOKxLnoFm2dwagQnSKPxRfPid-2F9-2BJ3X7JCjNT1ZzDiBmLPTbF8df3u0H-2FOZr1JX6O0-2B4pG7avuBtA-3D-3D))

**AVGO.** *Bull:* Sam Altman and Hock Tan showed off the OpenAI "jalapeño" inference chip, a full wafer plus packaged die (likely HBM3E). *Bear:* still aspirational until volume ships. *Next:* custom-silicon ramp. ([The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DDBqa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzfVLfv7Mg5PJddwoAfRnozuBtHO0ZbA1bwrJ3fHuhtOxwCWoqxZxYRrLSUREMGhORIhEqq7VvSzyFHAp1UZzwQd6fvKAgcEbBqkXWp31dxuHQULaYRTqGjEr7YkQdqbDog-3D-3D))

**AMD.** *Bull:* doesn't pay Nvidia's HBM markup; the XPU-everywhere thesis is now consensus. *Bear:* quiet on the roadmap this week, Qualcomm and the OpenAI chip took the custom-silicon spotlight. *Next:* AMD Advancing AI Day, July 2026 (the MI450X/Helios print).

**MSFT.** *Bull:* signed up for Qualcomm's cheaper-than-HBM data-center architecture, a real input-cost hedge. *Bear:* rising memory bill into a heavy-spend balance sheet. *Next:* FY26 Q4 capex at July earnings. ([The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DJV8P_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzWikyB88KlKD0rkJEjPwHHgtmSlrJg-2FgrcP6BTIqNcnOQeZTydn20R6eLflIIVAitD8W-2FCS1rftGIq8-2B9JihUaPJblSaCZgZl-2BsC604u7Tb0qMAWtgNz5-2Fu8miRCi89IeQ-3D-3D))

**GOOGL.** *Bull:* throttled Meta on Gemini capacity, Cloud is sold out, not soft; TPU remains the cost-arbitrage weapon. *Bear:* hasn't broken out Gemini revenue, so the monetization is unproven. *Next:* July capex guide. ([TBPN, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjji9pF3cWw9eVa-2BMPpiPXxDcpP-2Fgr0fx1RK3I9YyptpJwBmWUVP-2FKCdH-2FzEOUwWeucfrmjTLCsTsSMCnc8H2MDJOcy7K32C22J-2FtQXrObvvw-3D-3D8jZE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzZKxbzviI1N7EbpOe-2FgGng2ENQwcY6alnM21Ut7bNuFHgN-2Brj5AksYIqBYxGgh19IzI3kr-2Fk0ZfgFen3VleZkeG9KREiof8rYLmbVFaB8GGKsx8WuNkN19Thdg386L8Qhw-3D-3D))

**AMZN.** *Bull:* Alpha Wave (now Qualcomm's) was a core networking-IP supplier to Amazon, Trainium's in-house template still intact. *Bear:* quiet on the tape. *Next:* July earnings.

**META.** *Bull:* signed onto Qualcomm's low-cost memory architecture. *Bear:* throttled by Google on Gemini (delayed internal projects) *and* now rationing staff token spend, a rising-bill spender getting squeezed from both ends. *Next:* July earnings. ([TBPN, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjji9pF3cWw9eVa-2BMPpiPXxDcpP-2Fgr0fx1RK3I9YyptpJwBmWUVP-2FKCdH-2FzEOUwWeucfrmjTLCsTsSMCnc8H2MDJOcy7K32C22J-2FtQXrObvvw-3D-3DDu4m_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzQew-2BurXxBTl5RyFYhHPuZDd-2BA1VB711YYeH2vwelr9wu61Gw-2Fyecfl10rWMzE0ZximUkDkHFZR4-2FgxRzc2395QR10Ten8BL4SE35-2FwCVprIXF5k4EEeSF454cHN2lsKXQ-3D-3D))

## Read-Throughs

- **Memory / HBM (MU, SK Hynix), now the center of the trade, with a 2028 fuse.** Margins 75–85% and spot still accelerating, but the Micron ramp plus Samsung's leak plus CXMT's closing yield gap are the first credible price-war setup. SK Hynix's **~July 10 Nasdaq listing** is the next liquidity test. ([The Circuit, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYNPzchQ8gcbQOancEl7Sa0pO2PA-2BvOT3G7wW0kLgDafVGL011nTDOu5clTxysRAAfHa3nPaWEk0-2Bd-2BslH-2BD3biV1Hjb6CQ6tFvfVqx240Vg-3D-3DK9KK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzXVt5HneubX42Oebw6LsWn8CB7AMXzSICp9PE4cF927ggkqxlfzEXKnr4SbBquBA8I-2FbVfZW5eCHHhSGVk8CXmqPg9rApt0wdMWXgaA00o-2FjftB34QpPAvKfdZ9GXv-2FIWQ-3D-3D))
- **Custom silicon / networking (QCOM, AVGO, MRVL, ALAB, CRDO).** Qualcomm's Alpha Wave SerDes roadmap (800G to 1.6T to 3.3T by 2028) plants a flag in the networking line just as it becomes the battleground; watch for a *named* no-HBM hyperscaler deal. ([The Six Five, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqIC2s3swzB-2F9oz8zGHSi4UJpoNGOr8BCVAfU-2F-2B5S7cl6ewV9Rm2YHyqPs4j-2FgQ2BPDizJT6-2Fhzom7EKwqLrGBU40W4DatW3K21N85pT8w1A-3D-3DTaNr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzUrkDvUugZxfTBLs6gIQMV6HI7k28OSPmMgRhv-2FzFFT9uREsgq84fr69nY0rpWe7GidDI8edJ57oL2lVtmXuRaNStKa3mwP5k-2F1RDi6cP2camKCsBEU3Tajx31GuxFfRcA-3D-3D))
- **China second-source / sovereign capacity.** Apple lobbying for CXMT access; Korea reportedly committing ~**half a trillion dollars over five years** to memory. Both feed the 2028 supply argument, not 2026. ([Morning Market Briefing, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2FEVmnRbNzbX4ortyhu-2FEOFmcpIhhgepg100ohHCzgZZITlBNIQbTbWKZmseADE61JXN2uSWm7QLLI1qE7iGrNDtrYepNePjU6SmHMw5EQIw-3D-3Dhc9V_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzeOnvPvpi-2BrsfqwXuzN-2BdDR64U-2FjBbZwq6Pvv85ItRPOdg8MwK3COWc35Z7qhnhKS4yolNofBtq64XmvGMzymgsYMkvxjYvjV7D7T8YD2L6FrpXaiHQ5Ek-2FM5R9HN1t1ng-3D-3D))
- **Power / thermal (VRT, ETN), quiet on the tape.** No fresh ERCOT/SB6 print; the **July 15 SB6 deposit deadline** remains the standing read on the buildable Texas pipeline.

## What Changed vs Last Issue

Last issue ([Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhDYFPFnIG0ciforvk4U0gBLkm6YM4iQNVv4EAaiapcmb8SNMXl9zlN2b4Hb-2FNXNMnBP3HoFxVRbrhLcXdMRuPAEFVbulrexxiz-2FDQmPfhYJQ-3D-3DrWNI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzZtg3zElj8yXOoqxa8MkKBmmxcand9oD7nALRUqCctltw7E2uE3SGdeMeYzPz45hQV2j92XDBZ1xrVrfvcFc0NMG88QhBp0bIgTieFxI9IxJ3lncNp3qrRvlaINwx6rMlw-3D-3D), "The token bill comes due. Demand blinks.") was a demand-and-funding story. Micron's print pulled the conversation straight back to supply.

- **The bull case got a monster data point**, DRAM +60% QoQ, NAND +80%, margins 75–85%, possibly out-earning Nvidia in operating profit, pricing locked to 2030. Memory "repriced as infrastructure."
- **The bear case relocated**, from last week's *demand* argument (token caps, the Lenovo CFO's $100M/month) to a *supply* one: the 2028 Micron ramp, Samsung's capacity leak, and the "margin floor" debate. First credible memory price-war setup we've logged.
- **A new structural threat appeared**, Qualcomm's no-HBM data-center debut, with Microsoft and Meta attached, aimed at the memory tax and Nvidia's HBM markup. Google throttling Meta on Gemini confirms tightness from the buyer side.
- **The big numbers**, aggregate spend framed loosely at **~$800B** for five companies ([Bloomberg Surveillance, Jun 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhLO2d8eHyzWe4wyJCxMEeLg07idcZlmEGcrax9FGUcbuv38waIpSjouKJWH1ih6hNCZ-2FjLTRUuZoVGD7dLhQevBU9Q-2BGgzHd6fo7F6Ym7gbA-3D-3DGuj2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUqqTIuAo1y1qRbyeO80bLOabZfAcHF-2B40NZ6zBiyxSzd9XokcISUyFQyAyz-2BSmkFEmllVyLT1wSwT-2FboC199yGqJ761LX6vAJhuoju5IOTzbGH4jDiUanvMLYHw8dgjIvMCub504GTHr6qZv8GlUqQQYOqJnCFtg8WXanqCq4t0A-3D-3D)), no fresh hard guidance change. NVDA's $25B raise and SK Hynix's July 10 listing are the next prints. AVGO (jalapeño aside), AMD, AMZN largely quiet.