# Gen Z Did Not Quit Drinking as the On-Premise Keeps Booming - Vice & Wellness: Alcohol & Nicotine - July 1, 2026 > Vice and Wellness (alcohol and nicotine) newsletter for July 1, 2026. Constellation reported into the full structural-decline narrative even as away-from-home spending data and a World Cup lager surge handed the cyclical bears live ammunition, and GLP-1 substitution moved from thesis to sell-side assumption. ## Vice & Wellness: Alcohol & Nicotine ### July 1, 2026: Gen Z Did Not Quit Drinking as the On-Premise Keeps Booming --- Every macro deck this year runs the same slide on the death of drinking: Gen Z abstaining, GLP-1s killing the buzz, cannabis walking in the door. This week the tape did something useful and stress-tested that story from both ends. Constellation walked into earnings carrying the full weight of the structural-decline narrative, while a room full of beer economists argued the on-premise is booming *because* young people are out spending. ## TL;DR - **Constellation reported into a wall of structural pressures**, Gen Z, GLP-1s, cannabis, and beer-price sticker shock, yet a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst still expects a *modest margin improvement*, with the aluminum-tariff tailwind largely offset by depreciation from the new Veracruz brewery. - **The "young people don't drink" narrative took a direct hit:** BLS data shows younger consumers over-indexing on away-from-home alcohol, and on-premise dollar spend keeps outrunning off-premise. - **GLP-1 substitution is now talked about as fact, not thesis**, one strategist says alcohol volumes have "fallen off in great degrees," with usage headed from roughly 1-in-8 Americans toward 1-in-6 within two years. ## What's New **Constellation walks in wearing the whole bear case.** On [Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgKJjbpH-2FkkM4a-2B-2F0Rwt6wyG2CqrfdOPf-2B2qwknIsd3i4tYpKZSE4dMy5iHg5DudXq4JQne7lZGOhYc5OZW4IzRqbqmFcrCrUZoxeokJr9D-2FQ-3D-3D2m_V_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVAf2vWByNDeZHdfioRU7P-2BfYicsT3BMaDO3MWdCGhAPworwDWQeivrvb3dJEHgkrhZ-2B76DHqDu6KmpvVE39y5QHxGhs-2FMKXiGCc4MrCF1Fltn1Hce-2FbOk5-2FOqhGmcAMqLcJyV5WGAGUHHAb486k1x3x-2F1b3jiKSbTSbD-2FwZzRaSw-3D-3D) (Jun 30), senior consumer analyst Ken Shea laid out why STZ, now ~93% beer, is fighting the tape: "Gen Z is not drinking as much as their parents. Illegal cannabis is now easily available in most places around the country. Zempic and the GLP-1 drug users have cut back," on top of the "cumulative effect of inflation" leaving beer drinkers with "sticker shock" at the six-pack. The offsets he flagged: the immigration-crackdown drag on the Hispanic consumer is finally comping out, and he still expects a "modest margin improvement this quarter... which I think will be perceived positively," though the end of aluminum-can tariffs gets eaten by higher depreciation from the new Veracruz brewery. He also thinks STZ, at ~23% dollar share of beer behind ABI's 33%, is *not* an M&A target, the category is already consolidated. Net read: "managing a bad hand well," not "growth restored." **The on-premise mystery, solved, and it's bullish for the occasion, not the producer.** On [Liquid Assets](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjS8byIq0b1n-2BJmOw2i9h82qApE3f0JiZmhomrHFvkFpQ1jXiZwVDn94FcGIJo3UB8GjwGp3-2BjTt5PJ3Sc4iuFWEBPoPauqw5IkwqmziMf66g-3D-3Dob5i_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVAf2vWByNDeZHdfioRU7P-2BfYicsT3BMaDO3MWdCGhAPzB2dMK6wiMAkgf7CF9lnqHTMwnTzMMIBbN09YLRpslz4bzsRuJpq58mgjAavsXh2-2FOENm3RwGHdJsEn1cijxQUbmuipjHVzoollsckjjgJ6cKPKU2cbd0GKgL0gHmU5yQ-3D-3D) (Jun 25), the beer-wholesaler economists drafted competing theories for why on-premise keeps outpacing off-premise. The punchline that should reset the Gen Z narrative: BLS consumer-expenditure data shows younger consumers "over-indexed in the away-from-home expenditures on alcohol... so counter to the narrative that kids didn't want to be out." The structural driver: since 1992, real spending at "food services and drinking places" is up 114% versus just 21% at food-and-beverage stores. The catch for the tape: "those consumer dollars don't translate to producer dollars." The premium is accruing to bars and restaurants, not brewers or wholesalers. > "When consumers are stressed and squeezed, they reveal their preferences even more so than they would otherwise." Protecting the out-of-home occasion, not abandoning it. **A World Cup lager surge, straight from an operator's taproom.** On [Brewbound](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5UlmMamMUXTDzIuE0A25caiRGvOkSS0YF5nktCS-2BGZutnveVj649Ocns9lTFb0roXw0-2F71PFF06HqAtSU36u2ZmWrM3-2Fpf541zuVcS6ciQw-3D-3DuvMh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVAf2vWByNDeZHdfioRU7P-2BfYicsT3BMaDO3MWdCGhAP2PLShaUVE4WEWaGIcRTIz1ceSYdH8dsVtdQf4LkCzUKT1eYxN3EIfYaGJx7iGnaV7x-2FiSueVN749Sq28-2FDGN1zs-2Bdq0tvhKkN1zbu5FpGfBbvXvOH7ejXGpVZ8yP1K9ZA-3D-3D) (Jun 25), Hendler Family Brewing CEO Sam Hendler said World Cup crowds are drinking "six or seven X the House Lager that we are of the top-selling IPA," with "golden lagers, lighter beers... over-indexing" and double IPAs at "really, really low order counts." Company volume was up 17% to 100,000+ barrels in 2025 and is pacing ~135,000 (up ~30%) in 2026, after a soft April-May as gas prices ticked up and then a strong June. The read-through: the mix is shifting toward lower-ABV, mainstream lager, a tailwind skewed to the big domestic and import brewers over craft-hoppy specialists. **GLP-1 substitution graduates from thesis to assumption.** On [The Important Part](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg1rCXRg1d73eDSj8KJbzqQv8YuOcK2XEpKSIKpFtrPgJCaOofXYKx165lLq5zUSjjaDNqNt9PixYYEqrJJedhqHTfgxGHx0lSpGsgwG0ppUw-3D-3DEZrK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVAf2vWByNDeZHdfioRU7P-2BfYicsT3BMaDO3MWdCGhAP0ASzWsoIjgFIL-2FXDj2JtwZau7N2bTwLyf0Ubta1Yva8ddl31XBIDnf8z-2FhoyqM67qey0wXrNSrofCHD0K5ez-2BBfnUrFEdnpWQfleK3Z5gANxMwMBBvBFaE2xMVqjMyuog-3D-3D) (Jul 1), Investopedia's Caleb Silver told SoFi's Liz Thomas that alcohol volumes, wine and beer alike, "started to fall off in great degrees... some of that was demographics, but a lot of it spurred by GLP-1s," with usage at roughly 1-in-8 Americans today and, in his view, 1-in-6 within two years and 1-in-4 within a decade. This is strategist framing, not hard demand data, but when the sell-side treats alcohol declines as a settled second-order effect of GLP-1s, that is precisely how multiples get compressed. ## The Debate This week the tape argued alcohol from both sides. **Bull case (the decline is a permanent generational shift):** Even the sell-side is conceding it. Shea openly ties STZ's malaise to demographics, cannabis, GLP-1s and price fatigue; Silver treats the alcohol drawdown as a durable GLP-1 consequence. When the bearish inputs are this broad and this bipartisan across operators and pundits alike, "generational" starts to look like the right word. **Bear case (cyclical/overstated, premiumization and occasion offset it):** The Liquid Assets crew took a wrecking ball to the simplest version of the decline story, younger consumers are out and spending on drinks, on-premise is resilient, and the "socialization" and K-shaped-economy drivers are decades-old, not novel ("it's literally been the defining economic trend of American history for the last 50 years"). Hendler's World Cup volumes say the *occasion* is alive and well; the fight is over where the margin lands, not whether people drink. Their framing: don't confuse a channel-mix shift and an inflation hangover with a permanent abstinence wave. ## Read-throughs - **Distributors.** On [Tapped In](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj52KcsaWPSoKyh7cv5xzXpSwEdafUZIKZLUbry3XADs5qK4VQoya7M-2BJFD25T-2FZcfc5rRX7CrFkYuXZRgJaV0nuuNv8g3YYRs1Xgrt1kXLzA-3D-3DYEmi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVAf2vWByNDeZHdfioRU7P-2BfYicsT3BMaDO3MWdCGhAP8hHnVOED3ZUVRTMc3A-2BjfRTn6PMLNstyzZYbnrQmILIRzzaeoIvoYdg9xu2arsVlh0JmqlitNTCLfsyiVi9G30-2FBHFkBK9i-2F6u57b6R39neeeyw4p-2BIqqQN1OEvOYRZPw-3D-3D) (Jun 30), the operating pain is concrete, diesel at "$5-6 per gallon," margin pressure, and a grind to convert data into route-level decisions. Pair that with the Liquid Assets point that on-premise growth means "smaller drops to more small locations," structurally worse economics for wholesalers even when volume holds up. - **Functional / non-alc.** On [Marketing Simplified](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj4QkTXnsVU-2FyRWUObldqhEACbXUWCO0Oegzg7YPIZGFQxWZOa6u4coIqVEYpimNQB2vXNjJdzKaPf93JBNO5C046gj37YkuGYaEiFSUFE1-2FA-3D-3DDDbP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVAf2vWByNDeZHdfioRU7P-2BfYicsT3BMaDO3MWdCGhAP9Vd8cxDasebanU6mvqACPEDfPiS6GojvjkdgY5qMdJKyUQ0DNzzXtujBQhoAJupOBuraHG2LeTkLJ2PzzmjHxul0zvvofYw-2BWnlFv-2Bb5B1vAdTai4795hYWrXJ9n5-2BnWA-3D-3D) (Jun 29), the hosts revisited Poppi's $1.9B sale to PepsiCo (2025) and the Poppi/Olipop grip on functional soda among health-conscious young consumers. It is a marketing-desk take, not a demand read, but it is aimed squarely at the same consumer the alcohol bears keep invoking. - **Cannabis.** No dedicated THC-drinks episode surfaced this week; substitution showed up only as an *input* on the alcohol side (Shea's "illegal cannabis is now easily available") rather than as a standalone thesis. ## What Changed The one genuine shift this week: the "Gen Z abstinence" trade stopped being one-way. It is still the base case in most decks, but the away-from-home spending data and the World Cup volume surge hand the cyclical/premiumization bears live ammunition, arriving right as Constellation prints.