# Copper Holds Firm While Aluminum and Nickel Sell Off Hard - The Weekly Materials Note: Metals, Critical Minerals & Ag Inputs - Week of June 28–July 5, 2026

> The weekly materials note (metals, critical minerals and ag inputs) for the week of June 28 to July 5, 2026. Copper held ~$6.10 while aluminum and nickel each fell ~13%, rare-earth and lithium equities sold off on risk-off rather than fundamentals, and StoneX's fertilizer chief argued Morocco duty relief and a $500M USDA program arrive too late to move prices.

## The Weekly Materials Note: Metals, Critical Minerals & Ag Inputs

### Week of June 28–July 5, 2026: Copper Holds Firm While Aluminum and Nickel Sell Off Hard

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Between fireworks and a holiday-shortened tape, the podcast feed still gave us plenty to chew on. The tell of the week: while gold slid back to $4,000 and aluminum and nickel got taken to the woodshed, copper barely flinched. Meanwhile Washington finally waved a wand at fertilizer, and the person who knows that market best says it's a wand with no batteries. Here's what the tape-watchers were actually saying.

## TL;DR

- **Copper is the last metal standing.** It's down ~2% on the month against aluminum and nickel each off ~13%, holding ~$6.10 with a forward curve in contango toward $7 by 2028-29.
- **The pullback is being read as a base-build, not a broken thesis**, but the equities are lagging the metal badly.
- **Rare-earth and lithium equities sold off 20-25% on risk-off, not fundamentals**, and the money keeps calling lithium "a proxy for the AI trade."
- **Fertilizer got two headlines (Morocco duty relief and a $500M USDA plan) and StoneX's fertilizer chief thinks neither moves prices.**
- **Tariff clock is loud:** US Section 232 on steel/aluminum expires July 24; UK just slashed its steel import quota 51%; South32 sold its aluminum arm to Alcoa for $4.1B.

## What's New

The single most-cited data point this week came from Bannockburn's Daryl Fletcher on [The KE Report (Jun 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi1OYyeJ7TxT7y34EYr3UgSSXjiKOGvMxihL5Jty0Tg5CD7Wo9GM76tKq8V2BXWQSVgrQOjo3mnMB0x16uIm-2BNxNFvnCd-2FeWWy0Soy-2BtXlqxA-3D-3D3d4V_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbVbaibYVT5gm4-2B-2BrcDZqQyu-2FzwMg8EGuIxXd9RJA-2FaKGnAUQKgZiyNw8eeRTMYpkXxwHvJmGhVxAHOVZw6VF0OvmzWif2rR5CSMM0DGdSUxC2FMPgSmnba8lavAK7zBe8Q-3D-3D): COMEX copper is holding ~$6.10/lb, up 20% year-over-year, and "even with that, the forward curve remains in contango… you get into late '28, early '29, you're getting near $7 a pound." His framing of relative strength was stark, on the month copper was down only ~2% versus aluminum and nickel each down ~13%. Copper is his number-one pick into the second half.

On fertilizer, President Trump's executive order suspended countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate for eight months, and USDA announced a $500M "FIELDS" program to build domestic nitrogen/phosphate/potash capacity. StoneX's Josh Linville, on [AgriTalk PM (Jul 3)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgiEASQDt4-2BdbwxdhqFWkDljGQOLjJbGUIKEgBN7StVom-2BtC7cOfmBYaeTwOYLfrqwFZjX9-2FvciUqusfnAMAlVunSKwzAmV3Smk4YlZVD9dHA-3D-3Dfm51_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbVtn5lGEVAHy49ScQfB8JQwuq968CNR34iWzvlWR23eSuJUTc4kzltEnucvZSM0wg0mJAN3NIkhkx0aGXIoKdPRns9X9kxsK7tFyblR4bJxRX-2BZi-2FZip6eSQZRut1HAX4w-3D-3D), was blunt that the duty relief came a year too late: "right now our NOLA… DAP price is the cheapest FOB price in the world… A year ago, we were a huge premium. This is when we needed this help and we're getting it 12 months later."

And in rare earths, Leading Edge Materials landed a 25-year Swedish mining lease on its Norra Kärr heavy-rare-earth deposit (dysprosium, terbium, erbium). CEO Kurt Budge, on [Company Interviews (Jul 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhXctpIrOPViYYr0h2fS0YSHLU5EliV-2Ftp-2BkYDcSSy56aLvDJ1FESsf0xt3hRob7X45ski9LEY1-2BS21pjnBx2tuHkITRm2jzViWGod-2FigCjIg-3D-3D7kCZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbejs9tchWdEM0e8wZ-2FggEg4GUX55iGccrwYvYmEnb9mSs03YH73mQ3sAkAaM5xL92rssvhj1kCMAqM3xiArGLjgtuPp4QPmTNd4lITu4w6JVv1l0ylR5HjnSyMW1IDewcw-3D-3D), said China's export restrictions have bifurcated the market, ex-China OEMs are now "willing to pay premium prices" for non-Chinese heavy supply, while conceding that "whatever export restrictions are happening specific to the rare earth space, that's what's throwing stock prices all over the place."

## The Debate

**Is the metals sell-off a buying opportunity or a warning?** On [Mining Stock Daily (Jun 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiTqiNg2NteC9BNDVrq7BGCYxn-2BrPZEFPmVZR6yo3QZ2yYb2MaBaoPdTVEA8aqvGfau5Hnb0sbjs09wACfAjEn7b-2FAym27-2FYxJVaW5HdUs3qA-3D-3D7w62_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbbisvsyOUp-2FXqoP5f0by-2FlEsxD-2BBQQK1v-2F9yccOcWlXn14lR5EAt9FTB6cUF-2BRayT7kOFo-2FuX6TY7uftXr9bWddBIVI4BfURUcDnAV3rgj3qBSGbUb05jGgMUCaU0ZQzIg-3D-3D), Vizsla Copper's Craig Perry took the calm view, "gold's back at 4,000, copper's at $6… things never go up linearly… you always need something of a correction and a resetting of a base." [The Rules of Investing (Jul 3)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiulKKoxE9hPfhxurAWZOPs8ec3TcRmiD09b52TI92WuywNFBTcLTBmAYDPm4sk3Ln5CU8PZg-2B94PgIwtfH3fRkV0QGruNme5ioIPnU-2B7csbA-3D-3Dv70z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbTALdjSLxFLwEiylALS4fX7UePlYt7sJuMkXDECA9DthTazsZAQnReT9YYrCr67Nbg6ejJg1e8-2BAJ25Yb686-2Fl-2B37IKIB13GDsvF5jvPpMlaYJ5xOP7EBUNf0enz-2FBaVjQ-3D-3D) reinforced the structural bull case: copper broke above a 20-year price roof late in 2025 on a decade-plus of underinvestment, now compounded by AI datacenter demand, while admitting quality equity exposure is hard to find.

The counterpoint is the equity divergence. On [Rock Stock Channel (Jul 3)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi7Y0krAAhADNanD0xpFKA7WdpRRJBUe8LE0G-2FztYEO-2BIWv72VG-2B5wiUsJSP0zebcIE4S9su2Le0yYezTsAVmip-2F42dqSBFsnyMH2Fog-2FpwEA-3D-3DaMGH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbfCTDAIGhIKdo-2Fr0tcN5KQpcOZOY9o2Vr-2BvrXkQ3YyJd9FOhVg55Eosb5YKU64NzTDedytKgdjSyDc3bjap-2FeHVl53IdKmtNdSBPFn4d-2FscSM89T87Vv0AxmmIcZRmHFAg-3D-3D), the hosts noted rare-earth equities are down 20-25% even though NDPR prices held, "a macro risk-off trade rather than fundamental demand issues," and flagged that copper equities are underperforming the copper price and lithium equities have fallen far more than lithium itself. So the metal says one thing; the miners' share prices say another.

**And on fertilizer: does policy actually lower prices?** Linville's answer, on [Grain Markets and Other Stuff (Jul 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhCzYf9Oo5iSblbqcty9M0Uad2VU0wYIzXu8X2Xvd1xQD5uH1L0-2Fhvqb1p8fFsy3mWnfZlmvXmzlzikuHAEwNkvgrF3rdIUG2W-2FoIHx-2BuvA0w-3D-3DOWtB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbcyuUXaptx-2FO8PkjJKVY1slgNZblirWeokC4d87FLmjcOg1rmaE3Agm3Y5bdtOp3t0bEmAXEttMbw032pvXOXCSHpsd2k-2B5sPfMbIhXqat8ry3SVWKlPnIXr73cbyxT-2FXA-3D-3D), was no: the $500M FIELDS program "will not do too much to move the needle," because the US imports 5.1M tons of urea a year and a single world-scale nitrogen plant costs "$4 or $5 billion with a B." He doubts USDA's projected 22% phosphate price cut / $1.82B farmer savings will materialize while China stays out of the export market and the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.

## The Names in Play

- **Copper juniors over majors.** On [Palisades Gold Radio (Jul 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8c4BILq3G5kfTNqmaIornWSAuCv5iDAertUClyhCovL6XwENIm0I0QlkiVxhFAn2Jl89VWb2lAg-2B-2BzlbxPgEtBI0paVR4VSx4WzT-2FL5lwDg-3D-3DcCVS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbZCy7Rf3aym2zY0pH4QTIrmp-2BrwUnSM5bM-2BjnBm5EbzhZ1kPk1NfAy25mVYhkbo2zslO17snv6QgO0N5eziDvB-2BxpJ0uUkmzcWiCGk3Uy2vF-2Byl-2FVMXQwsTc2jNzMZb3JQ-3D-3D), Michael Gentile argued the majors (Hudbay, Lundin, Freeport, Anglo) trade at ~1x NAV or better at spot, making juniors the more attractive risk/reward.
- **Alcoa (AA)** is buying South32's aluminum assets, the Hillside smelter and MRN bauxite stake, for $4.1B ([The Money Show, Jul 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjOGjrG669oQzn5-2B83YAzj2Qmtw8KaIn9UGV8Sjy9izNsTMDzVFtY9Qn92L7iaDTa8pEVkJGQaLRtcilXzjmB-2FfNKNoFu-2FvIwZvEIOj3gKAkQ-3D-3Dpjpf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbRLI0F-2BekJURbyMyuDEUYu7ftikQjZvTmzEKE7lrc-2FJ9WopROwhAU-2B0OIUritG8FaqQhS3K64AFuyDhpsKUIFwqiSaeJJykQeu9PPENRQxe0Vo4RtxhwWfGMneJZoIshKQ-3D-3D)), doubling down as futures hit a four-year high; South32 rotates toward copper and zinc.
- **Albemarle (ALB)** as the lithium survivor: long-term contracts kept revenue growing through the 2024-25 price crash, though they didn't stop margin compression ([Chip Stock Investor, Jun 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhgLDZmtQ0exmeEFNMa0FA8lPdQv1QfTeZzrSxUtiRoeDFnexkq1MpPrx2WUwDlzw9-2B-2FXDOfv-2FqlrcjfgGJPoAmetyyA39cwq4MUNut2z2H4A-3D-3DiJQY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbWS2QJZ1jjXZ4DYYqMwqo0ctqI9-2FpnX9Vj42E4B6lwi5i9gK4XCdKi5eniUQV7AWHTPtw1mcFYrKQnA9B2KKEPY8sXE3P7ZBjr2g8FtIAMnNO2QCfDW46wK7iIZK34-2Be0A-3D-3D)).
- **Mosaic (MOS)** as the fertilizer read: revenue +14% YoY and an EPS beat, but margins collapsed from 18.7% to 4.5% with guidance cut ([InvestTalk, Jul 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTXpVb-2BmZSnQsSv74gZ9x7HqfFHXYEoPOoteII76rzOVugD6nKCWS8B9w-2F4-2BeRu3osotc6cqjAbb9B4K-2BUI9i-2FZ6kiIrtphuTFnRZ4oRULDQ-3D-3Drg87_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbZZwp0xWrzXISzD3oOALT6KKWOB-2BoBbTE8uNW7BX6DXjQh0Ik0Lra5C1YSmvSLWUinuBXmdKTZnI9PJk5IZv5ZcND6mSa04MMs4t4-2F06FNJ-2FnU9JxT5QVfXU2b5QOOHCvQ-3D-3D)).

## Read-Throughs

- **Lithium is the second AI-demand story.** On [The Global Lithium Podcast (Jul 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiQ2VxpctaQ03eI6Yy5M3lc26BLbB1sK2H1eWjDhp9RQa0mxMcSuqQnh2V7WXHE-2Fi-2BcxbJSZlKUu9uNaJM-2BaYKpQzfjlk2lezhUMzZ2iou3XQ-3D-3Ddtys_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbX3Ss9HN7RQMIJ1sXsR4-2F-2BA5cQBa-2FYzd8a-2FIJ7-2FWE7fks5jAVCAFd0TF7yAPHKJECJYw792DDRzE9NgqXn73gt5MuVCjjKItXrLD1OsbjNGe9s85TERPYzp6ZCPD9zfJ4w-3D-3D), Standard Lithium's David Park said investors now view lithium "almost as a proxy to the AI trade," with hedge funds and long-only money buying it as a datacenter/electrification play. [Sprott Radio (Jun 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjzK-2FPcXiqrW3LZi6LhEIw4qLFUUA90XUzgUqpRv5A7goBr-2Bjv3VNkUWPYN9rOZFtEMM0dI009i20XeDLhIXm1bqA5YOmDNaG9Oa6WCt-2Fecww-3D-3D8B2b_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbZx4gITvgC5I3Im-2Btc-2F-2B8dNld0rmiEo2u2GOKaX3DtaSdOwvLWkV1qBffHfim-2FJflIzk-2BQ8v8NHkRbA2-2FzlqeoBsTCY-2B385YKbAhk9rhgsKmGNDeJdKsNXO-2FLwM2gYHPDQ-3D-3D) put the frame simply: "copper is essential for transmitting… electricity. Lithium is essential for storing it." BESS is now 20-25% of global lithium demand (~40% in the US), with lithium around $21,000/ton.
- **Grid = copper.** Bloom Energy's KR Sridhar noted on [20VC (Jun 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeAAFjorZO2hd8-2B1nClbrhK1Xlvv-2FZJQ9BfVXyEU9V-2Fc5gybLnD4rjAeAG0Ulbm2ATn5S4cSlaeUwVUo4nDuaqsGkFsyV0Z0mpGURZX-2BDeqA-3D-3DljH5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbT4PzCuOWXmRE8EF4W30ShTsCK8cae-2BaCNjJaULQgvKSMGigUZz5PGC5CTwLuRRWM2F8pElNT-2B2kST-2B-2Bd9fJpY2RABi0yFTqRJhBfj6fheXy76-2B80iMxsbp6lOOY-2FS-2FXwA-3D-3D) that "a lot of copper goes inside a data center," one more constraint alongside power, cooling and labor.
- **UK steel pain, US mill insulation.** A Sheffield toolmaker on [Wake Up to Money (Jul 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvvl4LdNm05tN-2FOFQFK-2BOWe468hm8ddfdSfhW8BDgypGx47WrAIqKf8v7zGbR63PQYF1lOq5T1XF8oE41Zs0fJEK1ow8ShsegQb2NU1Tn1Jw-3D-3DJn8l_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbTCCR38IyiHcpOIVR4WjrvYI-2BrHb3Qr0vW3iM5WxhPetkPbiEXV1gUDyIiL1BFlotTTktj2BIn-2Fl-2BWkx19DqEMjBs0WsxIVQgOjm7WuHERwcloYMvJhzEz-2B8ApH23s1ySw-3D-3D) described a 51% quota cut and a looming 50% tariff forcing a 25-35% cost hike, "we are being forced to offshore production." US mills face the opposite setup: protection, plus U.S. Steel's new $475M Fairfield line ([Today in Manufacturing, Jun 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj4PHq9OOLTUV2unPdCQ7nt5hXxzzCOialkEL9oGneUa2kynowaw-2B0uRYGkO8eiC-2F7IaO6bUPZ7OBAxUnDxjOKXNKV-2BD6WItYT26zExvsyJUw-3D-3DgIO__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbW2Rggo3pGsKaSYxqeIVGpyH75ujeSihGYUWKE8TT0cVK3I4HNuMclrVE3nyA89xSrUOicWjHxf-2FaX22EPHGtviLMFgV7RzmTBUa5avA-2BklSBBfEcHm0kvIsXWLC-2BRAByg-3D-3D)).

## What Changed vs Last Week

Last week copper was cracking $6 on deficit narrative; this week it's *consolidating* around $6.10-6.20 while every other base metal breaks harder, the relative-strength story got cleaner. New this week: the Morocco phosphate duty relief and the $500M USDA FIELDS program (and the expert verdict that both underwhelm); the UK's 51% steel-quota cut; the South32-to-Alcoa $4.1B aluminum deal; and Leading Edge's 25-year Swedish heavy-rare-earth lease. The clock to watch next: US Section 232 on steel/aluminum expires **July 24**, likely replaced by Section 301 ([Talking with One Voice, Jul 2](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhOQqbQtB3RztXX4t3jqW-2FmXSqQiuygilqGrmhGMa0CSdNIigUdHR4LxQnZhIdHraPDdA4GXRFU0L8PFc0s-2FAzOijCzLBfv31rSlp9TrkiCqA-3D-3D86WE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbWPz0lOn3yovG8NN-2F3jduZTKnLbOB0aXFufmJ9vh-2Bl0-2FUtQu10oEkN6rvhE8rK3abfoWjopy7ZjC4DKkYK3SiyfZyLBpmyjpfwCjry4Z4vOqwFtdjCXU1ZqD770IB2fYGw-3D-3D)), with steel/aluminum a live item in the stalled USMCA review ([RealAgriculture, Jul 3](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgc3k607AwLqIGF-2BiBC7NeboAxvLwt9CGTzD9ADBNhbrjauS301Gg4gh-2BosvdxsD4F0lRUKed19bG4-2BImZhd81J0dxWtW9NvkmPSJn3vfjlCA-3D-3D0J2h_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUt9uYUcUiP1VHXNfMXE3enwvShkKUKTJLzAONa92EIbb5vAy5Yia-2F7g-2BotNG72HHUm1ZLsxIcJPIpPcPC5cYYxjZYdcXkVIqd3abHm2bHI0n-2FIgqMF03MqEImgeu3Mfb4VzZADJ6EKlPW8BrIe-2FtOme2oyi5oExUNMGBlukCxDlA-3D-3D)).