Newsletter · · Ashutosh Agarwal

AI Capital Rotates Into Power and Electrical Equipment as Lead Times Stretch - US Industrials, Podcast Circuit Weekly Recap - Week of June 29 to July 6, 2026

US industrials podcast recap for the week of June 29 to July 6, 2026. The AI capex trade visibly rotated out of GPUs into the electrical picks-and-shovels, power lead-times stretching to 2029 to 2030 became the binding constraint, Bloom Energy was the single most-discussed name, and Honeywell's three-way split went live.

US Industrials, Podcast Circuit Weekly Recap

Week of June 29 to July 6, 2026: AI Capital Rotates Into Power and Electrical Equipment as Lead Times Stretch

Coverage window: podcasts published 2026-06-29 through 2026-07-06 (trailing 7 days). Sub-sectors swept: Defense, Aerospace, Machinery, Multi-industry conglomerates, Electrical equipment & power (data-center/AI infra), HVAC & building products, Transports/freight/rails, Construction/engineering.

The 7-day window was well-populated: 111 episodes cleared relevance filtering. This recap synthesizes the industrials-relevant subset. No 30-day fallback was needed. Two coverage gaps in-window: dedicated HVAC/building-products commentary (Carrier/JCI/Trane/Lennox were only named tangentially, e.g. as brands a home-services roll-up services) and construction/engineering pure-plays (Quanta, EMCOR, Fluor, AECOM surfaced only via the power-grid ETF discussion, not on dedicated shows).

Executive Summary (TL;DR)

  • Power/electrical is the dominant industrials trade. The "AI capex" money is visibly rotating from GPUs into the electrical picks-and-shovels, Vertiv, Eaton, Hubbell, Powell, Quanta, Siemens, GE Vernova. On Money On Tap (Jul 4), a host noted "only 20%, 30% of actual AI data centers are currently built," framing electrical infra as an early-innings opportunity.

  • Power lead-times are the binding constraint, and everyone quotes the same numbers. Getting grid power to new GPUs is a ~5-year wait; heavy-duty gas turbines are sold out to 2029–2030 (GE production capacity available in 2029 already pushed to 2030 by EPC bottlenecks; Baker Hughes sold out through 2028). This is why behind-the-meter gas and Bloom Energy's 90-day fuel cells are winning.

  • Bloom Energy is the single most-discussed industrial name. CEO KR Sridhar on 20VC (Jun 29): 2025 revenue $2B (+37% YoY), ~$20B backlog, ~$93B market cap, up over 1,500% in a year; Q1 2026 revenue $750M (+130% YoY) per Limitless (Jul 1), powering Oracle's 2.4 GW data center.

  • Caterpillar is the machinery bull case du jour, no longer "a construction company," now an AI-power/data-center play via its Power Systems (former energy & transportation) segment, plus a tightening yellow-iron rental cycle. Schwab Network (Jun 30) flagged CAT up ~90% YTD with 12–14% growth expected but near-term technical resistance at 1055.

  • Honeywell's three-way split is a live event. CEO Vimal Kapur (Talks at GS, Jun 30) detailed the separation into Honeywell Aerospace, Solstice Advanced Materials, and Honeywell (Automation); R&D raised to 4.8% of revenue (+40–50 bps); Forge AI platform hit breakeven in 2024. Motley Fool (Jun 30) called Honeywell Aerospace "the GE Vernova of this."

  • ISM Manufacturing softened but internals were constructive. June ISM 53.3 (vs ~53.9–55.7 expected); prices paid collapsed 9.1 pts to 73 (four-year low) as steel/aluminum/tariff costs faded; production in its 8th month of expansion; employment 49.7 (still sub-50). ISM chair Susan Spence flagged Section 232 tariffs as still "destroying profitability" for some.

  • Freight is a rate-driven, not volume-driven, up-cycle. Trucking spot rates hit an all-time high ~$3.86/mile ahead of July 4; rail intermodal +12.1% YoY on truck-to-rail conversion (rail PPI +0.3% vs truck +17.3%). But FreightCasts warned volume is flat-to-down, so the carrier-friendly setup is fragile.

  • Aerospace supply chain is still capacity-choked and now bifurcating strategically. Boeing's Ortberg is prioritizing reliability over a new jet ("time frame is moving to the right"); Airbus is pushing an A320 replacement for 2030. Engine MRO is in a "super cycle" with heavy M&A (VSE's ~$2B Precision Aviation Group deal). Pratt & Whitney (RTX) engine liabilities are still biting, ITA Airways is preparing a lawsuit over >$150M of damages.

  • Defense-industrial-base fragility is a recurring theme. Hadrian's Chris Power (Core Memory, Jul 1): $100–200B of onshore defense manufacturing sits with sub-$10M suppliers, ~85% of productive effort in a "fragile supply chain"; Lockheed/Raytheon on record that Stinger/Javelin restock takes ~7 years. Drones as "the soldiers of the 21st century", AeroVironment (AVAV) +21% on earnings.

  • Tariffs/Trump 2.0 and China/rare earths remain the macro overhang. July brings Section 122 expiry (Jul 24) and new Section 301 "forced labor"/overcapacity actions; a Feb Supreme Court ruling already invalidated some tariffs. China's heavy-rare-earth export curbs (dysprosium, terbium) are bifurcating ex-China prices, a national-security input risk for the primes.

Dominant Themes

1. The AI Power Layer Is the New Center of Gravity

The clearest articulation came from Limitless (Jul 1): "For three years, the AI trade has been one simple idea. Buy the chips... but this investment thesis now has become overcrowded... No one can turn these GPUs on. The problem? Energy, electrical grids, wiring, networking... This is the next constraint that hasn't been solved yet and where the majority of the AI capital will eventually flow." US data-center power demand was pegged at roughly doubling from 80 GW in 2026 to 150 GW by 2028. Money On Tap (Jul 4) framed the same rotation from a portfolio angle: money moving "out of the MAG-7 into some of these... first level infrastructure component pieces," with only "20%, 30% of actual AI data centers... currently built." Limitless: An AI Podcast; Money On Tap

2. Lead Times and Bottlenecks as the Investable Moat

The recurring, cross-show fact set: ~5-year lead time to get grid power to a new US data center; gas-turbine order lines extending to 2029–2030; transformers/breakers "now stretching years out." EnergyCents (Jul 2) detailed it: the "big three" GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi dominate heavy-duty turbines; Baker Hughes "sold out through 2028"; Siemens quoting "24 to 36 months" for smaller industrial gas turbines; GE 2029 capacity "getting pushed into 2030 because of bottlenecks at the EPC level." Animal Spirits' guest framed bottlenecks as "a natural governor in a good way" preventing oversupply. EnergyCents; Animal Spirits Podcast

3. Behind-the-Meter Power as the Bridge Solution

EnergyCents (Jul 2): average behind-the-meter data-center project has risen to ~2 GW in Q1 2026 (10–100x historical installs), heavily concentrated in 2026–2028 before grid connections arrive; gas dominates for reliability/speed; the "speed-to-power premium" runs 80% above retail tariff ($140–150/MWh vs ~$80/MWh). A signal that some of these are becoming permanent: "Chevron just signed a 20 year agreement with Microsoft... for a project in Texas." EnergyCents

4. Grid Modernization as a Multi-Decade Capex Supercycle

Animal Spirits (Jun 29): the grid will add ~17 million miles of transmission/distribution over 25 years (per Bloomberg); "we're in the early innings"; demand is "not just dependent on data centers", reshoring (Micron's $100B Syracuse fabs), aging grids, and electrification all feed it. Electric Perspectives (Jun 29): investor-owned utilities face $215B of 2025 capex and $1.4T through 2030. Animal Spirits Podcast; Electric Perspectives

5. De-Conglomeration and Breakups

Honeywell's split into three (Aerospace, Solstice Advanced Materials, Automation) was covered both from the CEO's seat (Talks at GS) and an investor angle (Motley Fool Hidden Gems), which tied it to a broader "deconglomerate trend" including the Comcast/NBCUniversal separation. Talks at GS; Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing

6. Physical and Industrial AI as the Next Automation Leg

Honeywell's Kapur framed a "three-bite-at-the-apple" model, capital cycle + OPEX/aftermarket + AI compounding on unused plant data, solving a real labor problem (developed-world replacement rates of 1.5–2.0). Peggy Smedley (Jul 1) showcased CSX putting AI agents into customer-facing workflows and cited 3–7% rail fuel savings from dynamic train optimization (fuel = 15–20% of opex). Talks at GS; Peggy Smedley Show

7. Reshoring and the Fragile US Industrial and Defense Base

Core Memory (Jul 1) with Hadrian's Chris Power and Possible (Jul 1) with Boom's Blake Scholl both hammered the theme that the US tool-and-die and skilled-labor base has hollowed out, Scholl's "slacker index" example: 88 weeks quoted for an inertial weld that physically takes seconds; single-crystal turbine blades 12+ months. Core Memory; Possible

8. Freight, Rates Up and Volumes Flat

Multiple FreightWaves/FTR shows converged on a carrier-friendly-but-fragile setup: spot rates at all-time highs into July 4, driven by tighter capacity (regulatory enforcement removing carriers, higher diesel) rather than demand. Rail is the structural winner on truck-to-rail conversion. FreightCasts; Talking Transports

9. Macro Backdrop, Tariffs Fading From Prices but Policy Uncertain

June ISM prices paid fell to a four-year low as steel/aluminum/tariff costs faded, yet Section 232 tariffs still "destroy profitability" for some manufacturers, and a July tariff-policy cliff (Section 122 expiry, new Section 301 actions) keeps hiring/ordering on hold. Manufacturing Talk Radio

Active Debates

Debate 1: Is the AI/power buildout a bubble, or early innings?

  • Early innings (bull): First Trust's Ryan on Animal Spirits argued "we're in the early innings of this build out because it is such a long project," and pushed back on the bubble framing: "the general attitude towards this whole thing is it's a bubble... I don't necessarily know that I share that." He also noted the grid ETF is up ~100% over three years, inviting "I missed it" skepticism.

  • Bubble risk (bear): Co-hosts flagged the dot-com analogy, that the build-out timeline and the stock timeline can diverge ("it might be three o'clock here, but 11:30 there... the internet was a thing and it barely had even started when the bubble burst"). Money On Tap raised "valuation fatigue" and competition eroding the current semi-monopoly vendor positions. Animal Spirits Podcast; Money On Tap

Debate 2: Bloom Energy: scaled winner vs. unproven at scale.

  • Bull: Sridhar (20VC) argued distributed "power at the edge" is inevitable and that Bloom can stand up power faster than a data center can be built ("We can stand up that power faster than they can build a data center"). Leopold Aschenbrenner reportedly holds it as ~12.7% of his portfolio.

  • Bear/caveat: Limitless flagged the key risk directly, "they haven't really delivered this at scale. Bloom Energy has yet to prove themselves from a manufacturing capacity and delivery capacity." The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch; Limitless: An AI Podcast

Debate 3: Caterpillar: durable AI-power re-rating vs. late-cycle parabola.

  • Bull: Schwab Network's Achilles Larea: "It forgot it was a construction company... now it's just taking off," expecting 12–14% growth over 18 months and calling it a "quality stock" that "should be part of everyone's portfolio."

  • Bear/technical caution: Ben Watson on the same show warned of a "bearish divergence... with RSI," resistance at 1055, and a "parabolic move, which isn't necessarily sustainable," with potential pullbacks to 935 or 795 support. Schwab Network

Debate 4: Boeing vs. Airbus: reliability-first vs. new-clean-sheet.

  • Boeing's Kelly Ortberg: "there's no reason to launch an airplane until the market is ready... there's no question that the time frame is moving to the right", prioritizing engine durability/reliability over a 737 replacement.

  • Airbus's Guillaume Freire is pushing an A320 replacement for a 2030 launch; on Boeing's slower timeline, he reportedly responded "perfect," adding "we want to be mastering the time... If they move much later, well, their problem." Hosts noted the risk that this dynamic repeats the MAX episode. Airlines Confidential Podcast

Debate 5: Aerospace MRO: genuine super-cycle vs. peak valuations.

  • Aviation Week's James Pazzi: "the evidence does suggest that Aviation MRO is still in a genuine super cycle in 2026," but with "signs the market may be nearing a peak in the valuation side, rather than demand itself." HEICO's Eric Mendelsohn warned "some investors may be overpaying for assets that they don't fully understand." Aviation Week's MRO Podcast

Debate 6: Can American reindustrialization actually work?

  • Skeptics (quoted by both Core Memory and Possible) argue automation software can't replicate decades of manufacturing tradecraft ("I don't care how good the software is. This is bullshit").

  • Bulls (Power, Scholl) counter with "don't bring back what left to China, invent the generation after it," using additive/3D-printing to skip the dead tool-and-die base (Boom prints an engine's worth of blades in ~3 days vs 9–12 months). Core Memory; Possible

Debate 7: ISM/jobs data: is manufacturing solid or rolling over?

  • ISM chair Susan Spence's read on June was constructive (production expanding 8 months; prices collapsing; sentiment/forecasts improving, panelists' 2026 revenue expectation doubled from Dec). The Morning Market Briefing hosts were more skeptical, focusing on a weak June payrolls print (+57k vs +113k expected; prior revised down 74k) and arguing "we lost jobs in the month of June." Manufacturing Talk Radio; The Morning Market Briefing

Debate 8: Tariffs: temporary behavior-driver vs. permanent tax.

  • One camp (via ISM commentary and PE-industry voices) sees 232 tariffs as "effectively a second tax" hitting bottom lines and creating "perverse incentives... to purchase non-U.S. source material."

  • A Trump-adviser view (Hub Podcasts) argues tariffs are desirable for revenue (10–40% "optimal"), largely borne by foreigners, and likely permanent across administrations. Manufacturing Talk Radio; Hub Podcasts

Stocks Mentioned

Electrical Equipment and Power, Data-Center Infrastructure

Bloom Energy (BE)

Bull. Solid-oxide fuel cells deployable in 90 days vs 3–5 years for grid power; powering Oracle's 2.4 GW data center.

  • Episode: "20VC: Leo Aschenbrenner's Largest Holding: Inside the $90BN Bloom Energy..." (2026-06-29). Speaker: KR Sridhar, founder/CEO Bloom Energy. Quote: "We can stand up that power faster than they can build a data center. So our goal at Bloom is to say power should not be a bottleneck if you rely on us." (Host: 2025 revenue $2B, +37% YoY; ~$20B backlog; market cap ~$93B, "up over 1,500% in a single year.") The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

  • Episode: "The AI Energy Stack: The Actual Industry Winners" (2026-07-01). Speakers: Josh & Ejaz. Quote: "As of Q1 2026, their revenue hit $750 million. That is up 130% of revenue year over year... And Oracle is powering its 2.4 gigawatt data center primarily using Bloom Energy." Bear caveat: "they haven't really delivered this at scale... yet to prove themselves from a manufacturing capacity and delivery capacity." Limitless: An AI Podcast

Vertiv (VRT)

Bull. Data-center power/cooling picks-and-shovels leader; named among the "second wave" AI profit winners.

  • Episode: "The Hidden Companies Powering the AI Revolution: The Picks and Shovels of the Build-Out" (2026-07-04). Speakers: Dan & co-host. Quote: "It's companies like Micron, SanDisk... Vertiv, Marvel and Broadcom that were names that were just barely on the radar... they've been the clear unchecked leaders in the second wave of profitability." Money On Tap

Eaton (ETN)

Bull. Electrical components/switchgear beneficiary of grid + data-center electrical demand.

  • Episode: "Talk Your Book: Investing in the Power Grid" (2026-06-29). Speaker: Ryan, First Trust ETF strategist. Quote: "electrical equipment companies like Eaton and Schneider Electric and ABB and Johnson Controls... you don't think of these as sort of the sexy semiconductor names." Animal Spirits Podcast

  • Episode: "The Hidden Companies Powering the AI Revolution..." (2026-07-04). Quote: "it's everything from switches to breakers... but Eaton, Hubble, Powell, these are all companies that are highly engaged in that space." Money On Tap

Hubbell (HUBB)

Bull. Electrical infrastructure (switches/breakers) for AI facilities. Episode: "The Hidden Companies Powering the AI Revolution..." (2026-07-04). Speaker: Money On Tap host. Quote: "Eaton, Hubble, Powell, these are all companies that are highly engaged in that space." Money On Tap

Powell Industries (POWL)

Bull. Electrical infrastructure for data centers. Same episode/quote as Hubbell above. Money On Tap

Quanta Services (PWR)

Bull. Grid engineering/build-out pure-play. Episode: "Talk Your Book: Investing in the Power Grid" (2026-06-29). Speaker: Ryan, First Trust. Quote: "the grid engineering... Quanta would be an example." Animal Spirits Podcast

Schneider Electric (SBGSY / EPA:SU)

Bull. Electrical equipment grid-to-chip; also cited as a Microsoft grid-digitization partner. Episodes: "Talk Your Book: Investing in the Power Grid" (2026-06-29) Animal Spirits Podcast; and "How AI is reshaping the way we build, run and secure the grid..." (2026-07-01), where Microsoft is "collaborating with equipment suppliers GE Evernova and Schneider Electric to accelerate grid digitization." Let's Talk Energy

ABB (ABBNY)

Bull. Electrical equipment power-grid pure-play holding. Episode: "Talk Your Book: Investing in the Power Grid" (2026-06-29). Speaker: Ryan, First Trust. Quote: "Eaton and Schneider Electric and ABB and Johnson Controls." Animal Spirits Podcast

Prysmian (PRY.MI / PRYMY)

Bull. Cabling/materials for transmission. Episode: "Talk Your Book: Investing in the Power Grid" (2026-06-29). Speaker: Ryan, First Trust. Quote: "the transmission lines... those materials, the cabling. So, you know, companies like Prismian." Animal Spirits Podcast

Siemens (SIEGY / ETR:SIE)

Bull. Positioned as end-to-end grid-to-chip solution provider; pushing 800V DC architecture and $1B+ US manufacturing.

  • Episode: "As racks scale, power must change: The AC-to-DC rethink inside AI factories" (2026-06-30). Speaker: Siemens representative. Quote: "even like a one to two percent loss translates to megawatts of wasted energy" and "Siemens has just crossed one billion dollars in U.S. manufacturing across different states." Interchange Recharged

  • Also cited (EnergyCents, 2026-07-02) among the turbine "big three" and quoting "24 to 36 months" turbine lead times. EnergyCents

GE Vernova (GEV) / GE

Bull (structural), lead-time constrained. Heavy-duty gas turbine "big three"; named Microsoft grid partner; used as the benchmark "pure-play" comp for Honeywell Aerospace.

  • Episode: "Necessity breeds invention: US data center developers embrace behind-the-meter power" (2026-07-02). Speaker: Ben. Quote: "the big three, GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi... we've heard GE talk about having production capacity available in 2029... those are getting pushed... into 2030 because of bottlenecks at the EPC level." EnergyCents

  • Episode: "How AI is reshaping the way we build, run and secure the grid..." (2026-07-01), cited as Microsoft equipment partner ("GE Evernova"). Let's Talk Energy

Marvell (MRVL)

Bull. (Semis-adjacent, in-chip power distribution.) Jensen Huang reportedly called it "the next trillion dollar company"; stock +76% post-mention, into the S&P 500. Episodes: "The AI Energy Stack..." (2026-07-01) Limitless: An AI Podcast; "The Hidden Companies Powering the AI Revolution..." (2026-07-04) Money On Tap

Lumentum (LITE)

Bull (long-term). Fiber-optic data transfer within/between data centers. Episode: "The AI Energy Stack..." (2026-07-01). Speakers: Josh & Ejaz. Quote: "Lumentum being the fiber optic company may stand to benefit over a much longer period of time than I think people think based on this current bottleneck." Limitless: An AI Podcast

Baker Hughes (BKR)

Bull (capacity-constrained). Smaller turbines for behind-the-meter, sold out. Episode: "Necessity breeds invention..." (2026-07-02). Speaker: Ben. Quote: "you've heard... Baker Hughes saying they've been sold out through 2028." EnergyCents

Constellation Energy (CEG), Vistra (VST), NextEra (NEE)

Bull (utility/grid modernization). Named as power availability/grid plays. Episode: "The Hidden Companies Powering the AI Revolution..." (2026-07-04). Speaker: Money On Tap host. Quote: "you have players in that space like Constellation, Vistra, Next Energy or Next Era." Money On Tap

Machinery and Multi-Industry

Caterpillar (CAT)

Bull (with near-term technical caution). Data-center power-gen (Power Systems) + tightening yellow-iron rental cycle; 9–15 month equipment lead times; pricing "beginning to lift in the last 30–45 days."

  • Episode: "AI's Next Surprise Inflection–Construction Rentals?" (2026-06-30). Speaker: Jarrett Harris, Iron Advisor Insights. Quote: "the data center build out is reshaping everything... it really comes down to Caterpillar and the rental channel"; on power gen: "it's going to need power gen... but it's also going to need a ton of yellow iron in the meantime." Pitch The PM

  • Episode: "The Big 3: CAT, SPCX, JPM" (2026-06-30). Speakers: Achilles Larea (bull), Ben Watson (technical). Bull: "It should be part of everyone's portfolio... we're looking at 12 to 14% in an 18 month time period." Caution: "resistance right here at 1055... watch that bearish divergence... with RSI"; support at 935/795. (Up ~90% YTD; trading ~1069.80 intraday.) Schwab Network

Cummins (CMI)

Bull. Gas reciprocating engines for backup/behind-the-meter data-center power.

  • Episode: "AI's Next Surprise Inflection..." (2026-06-30). Speaker: Jarrett Harris. Quote: "it was only looked at as a power gen play for Caterpillar and Cummins. Like that was the context... these need primary or backup power." Pitch The PM

  • Also EnergyCents (2026-07-02): "Caterpillar, Wurzilla, Cummins is kind of expanding their gas-based resources to serve this market." EnergyCents

Honeywell (HON)

Bull (restructuring catalyst). Three-way split; R&D at 4.8% of revenue; Forge AI platform breakeven; physical-AI/automation optionality.

  • Episode: "The Future of Industrial AI with Honeywell... CEO Vimal Kapur" (2026-06-30). Speaker: Vimal Kapur, Chairman/CEO. Quote: "Now our R&D spend is 4.8% of our total revenue. So... we took a step up by about 40 to 50 basis point"; on the split: "we have come to a point that complexity is becoming a barrier to our next chapter." Automation framed as a "mid-single-digit grower" (60% capital spend / 40% OPEX). Talks at GS

  • Episode: "Picking the Winners of the Honeywell Breakup" (2026-06-30). Speakers: Motley Fool hosts. Quote: "I see Honeywell Aerospace as being the GE Vernova of this. It's a pure play... the surge of global defense spending that... companies like Boeing and Airbus are finally starting to normalize." Solstice framed as "the GE Healthcare" (capital-intensive, ~$1B debt); Quantinuum "a binary outcome stock... approached with caution." Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing

Aerospace and Defense

Boeing (BA)

Mixed (constructive turnaround, cautious product strategy). Ortberg praised for the turnaround; prioritizing reliability over a new jet.

  • Episode: "344 - ... Guest: Joerg Eberhart, CEO, ITA Airways" (2026-07-01). Speaker: Scott (host), quoting Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg. Quote: "there's no reason to launch an airplane until the market is ready" and "there's no question that the time frame is moving to the right." Airlines Confidential Podcast

Airbus (EADSY)

Bull (offensive product strategy). A320 replacement targeted for 2030 launch. Same episode. Speaker: Scott, quoting Airbus CEO Guillaume Freire. Quote: on Boeing moving slower, "perfect", and "We want to be mastering the time... If they move much later, well, their problem." Airlines Confidential Podcast

RTX / Pratt & Whitney (RTX)

Bear (engine-liability overhang). P&W geared-turbofan issues driving airline lawsuits.

  • Episode: "344 - ... Guest: Joerg Eberhart, CEO, ITA Airways" (2026-07-01). Speaker: Joerg Eberhart, CEO ITA Airways. Quote: "It was clearly the fault of Pratt & Whitney... we calculated our damage... more than 150 million US dollars... that's also the reason why we're preparing a lawsuit against Pratt & Whitney." (RTX is also the show's sponsor.) Airlines Confidential Podcast

AeroVironment (AVAV)

Bull. Strong earnings + UK defense-spend catalyst; drones as core modern-warfare demand.

  • Episode: "Tuesday June 30, 2026" (2026-06-30). Speaker: Bill Gunderson. Quote: "the drone stock, AVAV, AeroVironment... they had knock it out of the park type numbers... I think it's up 21%... drones have become really the soldiers of the 21st century." (Context: UK's Starmer "$20 billion defense boost... with bets on drones, AI, and deterrence.") Best Stocks Now with Bill Gunderson

Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Raytheon/RTX

Structural theme (defense-industrial-base fragility), not a directional call.

  • Episode: "He Came From Oz To Save American Manufacturing - EP 80 Chris Power" (2026-07-01). Speaker: Chris Power, CEO Hadrian + host. Quote: "you've got a hundred to 200 billion of onshore manufacturing... they sell components... to SpaceX, Anderl, Lockheed, Northrop Grumman... I would say 85% of the productive effort is actually in this really fragile supply chain." Host, on record: "Lockheed, Raytheon... for stinger javelin missiles, it's going to take seven years to replace the stock." Core Memory

  • Lockheed Martin also featured on critical-minerals resilience: its Materials Strategy & Risk Manager characterized critical-minerals supply as a national-security issue and flagged ramp-up-to-full-production timelines as an understated bottleneck. Episode: "Betting on the battery economy" (2026-06-30). Fastmarkets' Fast Forward podcast

VSE Corporation (VSE)

Bull (MRO consolidator). Aggressive engine-aftermarket M&A.

  • Episode: "Will The Wave of M&A in Aviation MRO Continue?" (2026-06-29). Speakers: James Pazzi / Leanne Shay, quoting VSE President John Cuomo. Quote: "VSE, for example, they've been on a spree... Kellstrom Aerospace... for $200 million. Turbine Controls for $120 million. Aero 3... for around $350 million cash... Precision Aviation Group for around $2 billion." Cuomo: "the engine aftermarket is particularly attractive." Aviation Week's MRO Podcast

Transports, Freight and Rails

FedEx (FDX)

Bear/Mixed. Headline revenue "great one" dressed up by fuel surcharge; freight spun off at cycle bottom.

  • Episode: "June 29th, 2026: ... FedEx Earnings..." (2026-06-29). Speaker: Watson Weekly host. Quote: "FedEx grew revenue 13%. The real number is three... most of it is actually fuel... Adjusting operating income grew 3%. Margins... came down 70 basis points." On the spin-off: "Freight's operating income had just fallen 59% for the year... FedEx handed shareholders that business at the bottom of its cycle." Positives: US domestic yields +10%, international priority +16%; data-center logistics growing double digits; healthcare now $10B revenue; lowest-ever capex at 4% of revenue. The Watson Weekly: eCommerce Strategy & News

CSX (CSX)

Bull (AI/operational efficiency). Cited as an AI-in-operations leader.

  • Episode: "Reshaping Railroad with AI" (2026-07-01). Speaker: Krishnan, Microsoft Industry Advisor. Quote: "what we have done in CSX... they went after customer experience, putting intelligence directly into the customer-facing workflow... usage goes up. The response times comes down." Broader rail: dynamic optimization can "cut fuel somewhere in the range of 3 to 7 percent" (fuel = 15–20% of opex). Peggy Smedley Show

Union Pacific (UNP) & Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Event (merger under STB review). The proposed UP–NS combination is facing Surface Transportation Board review. Episode: "FreightWaves Today | July 1" (2026-07-01). Speaker: FreightWaves host. FreightCasts

Rails (sector, UNP/CSX/NSC/CN/CPKC)

Bull (share gains, strong service). Episode: "Railroads Lean Into Technology and Growth" (2026-06-30). Speaker: rail-association executive. Quote: "intermodal is up 12.1%... The May PPI showed year over year the price of movement by rail increased by 0.3%. And the price of moving things by truck increased by 17.3%." Carloads +3% YTD (ag, chemicals, steel); coal −6% for the week. Talking Transports

Trucking / LTL (sector; Old Dominion ODFL et al.)

Bull on rates, cautious on volume. Episode: "FreightWaves Today | June 29" (2026-06-29). Speaker: FreightWaves host. Quote: "spot rates hit all-time high of $3.86/mile... with expectation to exceed $4/mile by end of holiday; tender rejections near cycle highs around 27% in refrigerated markets." FreightCasts Countervailing caution: "overall freight volume has not meaningfully increased and may be slightly down given housing weakness." FreightCasts

Construction, Engineering and Rentals

Jacobs (J)

Bull (data-center design/engineering). Episode: "The Hidden Companies Powering the AI Revolution..." (2026-07-04). Speaker: Money On Tap host. Quote: "The engineering piece... Jacobs is one of the ones that comes to mind. It's one of the top players there... dealing with all the design work around these things." Money On Tap

United Rentals (URI) / Herc (HRI) / Ritchie Bros. (RBA) / Equipment Share

Bull (rental cycle inflecting). Episode: "AI's Next Surprise Inflection–Construction Rentals?" (2026-06-30). Speaker: Jarrett Harris, Iron Advisor Insights. Quote: on used-equipment velocity, "north of 80 percent of the equipment on their site was selling within two weeks. If I go back to September of 25, it was about 30 percent", signaling scarcity and rising rates ("if rates are about to inflect, that's more of a URI story"). Pitch The PM

Cross-Cutting Macro References

  • June ISM Manufacturing: 53.3 (softer than the ~53.9–55.7 expected); prices paid −9.1 to 73 (four-year low); production 8th month of expansion; employment 49.7. Section 232 tariffs still "destroy our profitability" per a transportation-equipment panelist. Manufacturing Talk Radio; The Morning Market Briefing

  • China / rare earths: China's heavy-rare-earth (dysprosium, terbium, erbium) export curbs are bifurcating ex-China prices; OEMs paying a premium for non-Chinese supply. Company Interviews; Fastmarkets' Fast Forward podcast

  • Tariffs / Trump 2.0: July cliff, Section 122 (10%) expiring Jul 24, to be replaced by Section 301 "forced labor" (10–12.5% across ~60 economies) and overcapacity actions; sectoral 232 tariffs on strategic inputs (autos, semis, critical minerals, robotics) framed as permanent, forcing reshore-or-pay. Tackling Tax; The Dynamo Show: a Dynamo Ventures Podcast

  • Iran war / margins: Referenced as a recent reminder of energy-price and supply-chain volatility (Strait of Hormuz) that spiked diesel and industrial input costs before receding. Peggy Smedley Show; Manufacturing Talk Radio