# Goldman's Solomon Calls the Largest Follow-On Ever as Capital Markets Reopen - The Capital-Markets Reopening - Week of July 7, 2026 > The Capital-Markets Reopening for the week of July 7, 2026. Goldman's David Solomon confirms record follow-on issuance and a live mega-IPO backlog, while OpenAI's listing slips to 2027 and Greifeld warns of an $800B share-unlock overhang. ## The Capital-Markets Reopening ### Week of July 7, 2026: Goldman's Solomon Calls the Largest Follow-On Ever as Capital Markets Reopen --- ## TL;DR - **The reopening now has a CEO on the record.** Goldman's David Solomon called Alphabet's $80 billion follow-on "the largest follow-on equity deal that's ever been done," said Anthropic has "confidentially filed for its IPO," and summed up the tape in one line: "there's more greed than there is fear." Last week the breadth came from DealLogic pundits; this week it comes from the man running the balance sheet. - **The listings machine printed for real.** SpaceX actually joined the Nasdaq 100 after the July 6 close, and SK Hynix's ~$28 billion Nasdaq ADR is now the second-largest equity share sale on record, behind only SpaceX, ahead of Aramco. Two more marquee wins land straight in NDAQ's franchise. - **But the pipeline cracked at the top, and the overhang is now quantified.** OpenAI's IPO reportedly slipped toward 2027, former Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld warned of ~$800 billion of newly unlockable shares by end-October, and Warsh's Fed refuses to guide. The window is open; the exit door is getting crowded. ## What's New Ranked by what's most actionable for a trading book. **1. Goldman's CEO puts operator weight behind the ECM boom.** On [The Forum with Becky Quick: "The AI Productivity Boom with David Solomon" (June 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjWH3wRJerKDQbK6Fqw5pmoBIO1DfjeXq-2F0MuJLEySb4fzij-2BO6Fd4nSn9pJvbEDHYGaS9X6C4DJx4hMzjrG1Oxpcy7X6eLqky16qks-2FRn3Mg-3D-3DGWFX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9YpzsDqn9W8c-2BAXoL575Iz8Sw66ZD60zlnfP-2BrFsGzYwA2PAZxhnojyAPZVVAoVsFSRfAfXO4Y9o8LKM4eD43uZ2Dsquf-2BS88ug17DwRiMLgRhClWLj4XOthFLcmCMVBSRRw-3D-3D), **David Solomon** called Alphabet's $80B raise "the largest follow-on equity deal that's ever been done… the first actual concrete data point for bringing something of this scale, and it's encouraging." He confirmed "Anthropic just confidentially filed for its IPO. OpenAI reportedly planning to go public," pointed to a Gartner estimate of "$2.6 trillion to fund the AI infrastructure buildout" against "$100 trillion" of US equity markets and "$8 trillion" of money-market cash, and flagged "more greed than fear." *Why it moves numbers:* this is the franchise's own chief executive, not a DealLogic recap, confirming record-scale ECM and a live mega-IPO backlog. Directly bullish GS advisory and underwriting. **2. The listings franchise cashes two marquee tickets.** SpaceX officially entered the Nasdaq 100 after the July 6 close, fast-tracked under Nasdaq's new May rule ([Animal Spirits: "How SpaceX Got Into the Nasdaq 100," July 6](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjtav12niUMNSn49mvn6b8PKSyvC-2BN-2FxWvY8QdKfTVRjyp5TayHuVR-2FLxdsBbG7ZMiSYp8SSAnhyO2IdDuai6HMZZzHkSEhOS2EZLd5EeMTeA-3D-3D_tjH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9YpxS2GjTbj3jj3Wdw0CRc9ubQtYkFF-2BVOD4kmjV-2BZOxd7LyP3e6CHJg2b0atbxpLeb4G3vj1QEi8mUfylw60VpDUAAsJQuB7KqU1mqJggHXTEi-2F9olKdiU7OLoftMIlfzfw-3D-3D)). Then, on [Brew Markets: "SK Hynix Hits Wall Street & Comcast Splits… Again" (July 6)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjGq-2Fu7fjotNhve7Iy8-2FXAPyDcYn56wVtwFnnsmkHfldWtFGGqrh3edh60-2BVHAm94nH7v153gXoYKOoq4KBqShcu5RxRS7yRlkhnz5x5VXMeQ-3D-3DmTki_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9Yp9kUUvvZ4OcNGTfW77ByU83PcoLItLdLn3tOIc-2FPgP0QdR0vwh7PcXyjQwc6RZDU0ZYkhC9p-2FU-2FWP1bxS1-2FMWuFsVOaLJCR-2FuoHeStHpssL9pvyZqrXLf4pHkPmUcan83g-3D-3D), host Ann Berry framed **SK Hynix's ~$28B Nasdaq ADR** as "the second-largest equity share sale on record behind only SpaceX's IPO, and ahead of Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO," proceeds funding new Korean fabs. And Adena Friedman, Nelson Griggs and ICE's Jeff Sprecher all appeared live for the July 6 "Trump Accounts" bell-ringing ([Squawk on the Street, July 6](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg09izMCphhlQ32Zcz0X5lhWJy1kjLTiSrJWaHk8JLlw3zwWilhl0R0ZbxsjMLwd8uX3fzq5oWG7WfH7jt2Aet5q1msBf0OcwCoekSlPR1TMg-3D-3DNdX0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9YpxaSF3MkT73bQgKsD3DFAeledZ39ZM84YI8XYSaImhiDENjfrbn8a47zeRzgpie5JHdNvVj2MOYyDlaGZM21UI4An5XtlTjWwrfLGR4BIhaDI5sydRxI3LRf3m4h-2BWJjlA-3D-3D)). *Why it matters:* three listings wins (SpaceX index inclusion, SK Hynix, Bending Spoons on July 1) inside one week is a clean, repeatable revenue picture for NDAQ. **3. The top of the IPO pipeline just wobbled.** On [Market Maker: "OpenAI IPO Delayed? Lime Bikes & the Biggest IPO Stories Explained" (July 6)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhTyrIizzSwDfJKxQ421gZ-2B827GpabDQPUxHOncmj15z-2BWcDAzy83bGZR3iH17y8tyjZFciS03OxPUL1NkCyB1rvfnkg8OzOOimzkYG0jZ43A-3D-3D2sxN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9Yp4oOvfLCpCKeeRvzxaHk37wrCQrVKN2F5hVu6zhVegSaCcb53z5BrBkajpZo-2B56MwYHj38LCy6v9Pu0TrXSBlMDRfYZBxYn-2FQye04gp3BpH9oj218u1-2FWFxAgYXbn0YS4w-3D-3D), the AmplifyME hosts reported OpenAI's IPO "possibly pushed to 2027," with Sam Altman weighing a "5% equity stake to the US government" and seeking a "$1 trillion valuation." *Why it matters:* Anthropic filing but OpenAI slipping is a real change from last week's "both are next in the queue" optimism; it thins the near-term underwriting calendar for GS/MS even as the equity window stays open for the names that are ready (Lime, GS/JPM-led, raised $174M July 6; Bending Spoons raised $1.68B on Nasdaq July 1). **4. Warsh's Fed refuses to guide, and the market is leaning hawkish.** In his first international outing as Fed Chair, at the ECB's Sintra Forum, **Kevin Warsh** told the room "I'm not going to give forward guidance… When we get into that room and shut the door, we're going to have a good family fight," reaffirmed independence, and called the AI capex boom "as consequential a time to be a central banker… maybe outside of a crisis in my adult lifetime" ([Squawk on the Street: "Fed Chairman Warsh On Stage at the ECB Forum," July 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2F8-2BVrWDLUuumGpvzn8hwgHMQWZl6rKKlz2fj8KZAQvnmnX5cpJOXpUY4nTN-2BYBDXAuGor-2B7I9kmhokPklRiuVOUqU8fYODZvQD-2BSwS3Qvtw-3D-3DlLOE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9Yp4ei-2FckTssVpRIvJVj9y5rbw8AV-2FfM7CFZM8yh2wsSdke7L-2FrftKCpae75aL8Fgb7frQ7CWzWpklwzuxLlO2bIm-2Fs4aFgkVuZ8gmreFrEW7bnYctIpCmqg-2FrLRqUQVonoA-3D-3D)). Piper Sandler's **Michael Kantrowitz** said the market is pricing "100% odds of a hike in October, the possibility of even a hike in July," and warned investors are "misreading how hawkish Warsh is" ([The Exchange, June 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2gA9vYJzOvpKSmtw1f1L10MYFl4dKSzgExL9FTf5qvlvC0UPLwKTw-2B6nqf0-2Fj89n2oRTegnytyEwHmhauNM9ilEVN1EV6eq8x0Fgr4Un1ww-3D-3DBQmx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9YpzX41aphTQK2EwctAxCjQ2JYg26ZuUXHCiN-2BXX1F3imUEW97Q9pdWxq7bFZLFcJYsgsghhh49f9GfZnkDZttOOVqZzttb5EtHg-2B7OFeF-2B2qb-2FjqKwAJoeG4Q1FD4a0SpmQ-3D-3D)). *Why it matters:* the rate backdrop is the governor on the credit-funded half of the fee pool. **5. Deals, and PE exits, are actually clearing.** Solstice (the Honeywell spinoff) is acquiring **Element Solutions in a $14.5B cash-and-stock deal** (~$6.8B pro forma sales, ~$1.7B adjusted EBITDA); the Paramount-Warner Bros. deal ($31/share cash) drew a California AG antitrust hire (Milbank), with EU approval expected July 22 (Squawk, July 6). And two clean sponsor monetizations: **Lockheed is buying Ultra Maritime from Advent International for $3.5B** (advisors Guggenheim and JPMorgan), and Comcast's Versant is buying Full Swing for $530M, a ~3x return for PE owner Bruin Capital (Brew Markets, July 6). *Why it matters:* strategic M&A and sponsor exits are pulling through advisory and financing fees in real time. ## The Debate **Durable, multi-year reopening.** The bull case got operator validation this week. It is Solomon confirming the largest follow-on ever and a live mega-IPO backlog; SK Hynix and SpaceX printing into Nasdaq; Kantrowitz raising his S&P 500 earnings-growth estimate "from 15% to 20%" with "75% of S&P 500 names" seeing upward revisions, "the highest in 5 years"; Ladenburg's Phil Blancato citing "a 44% increase just between March and May alone in M&A activity" and a "near doubling in total US deal value this year"; and Jim Cramer relaying that in biotech "deals are going to be flooding the market according to my sources" (Squawk, July 6). Multiple operators, multiple product lines. **Fragile head-fake.** The skeptics own the plumbing and the exit math. Former Nasdaq CEO **Bob Greifeld** warned that "between now and the end of October, there's around $800 billion of shares that can come onto the market. We've never seen anything like that" ([Morning Call, July 6](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiJKrSI0a41DQxuTUFralApIWnW-2F5WpLLu3YoM3gum03OR9uBXHv6oiVFHCAwRBfsXCnqNGiQPD6UJ4C8egb1i4h-2Bc90MfTENmJx7VYQUtVog-3D-3DeB8e_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9YpzJ6oNu-2BGiZEzqjNx-2BIP-2BjpbaKa4LWtHS-2FuroM6bLOV9vAiZUEoEM8kQMG2mQ23YLdajmbkNUOVleiZbNREIEPAOTAhvIAHjiDwUj9sJFBn3kYE2B-2Fv2tFBlD-2BxiuVw1Og-3D-3D)). IPO scholar **Jay Ritter** noted SpaceX priced at ">90x price-to-sales" and that "big IPOs tend to signal market tops" with ~51% accuracy ([Monetary Matters, June 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgqwPYzJt6tY746u8cs8rqeGqmf-2B-2F4S-2BcQ2Z5ClikwFADwhFawUFZzF51eA6O1QT4rcvK0N0SbUMc2lf-2FhUvkABCYc-2BL9OaiFnO23oiGr6fyg-3D-3DZKHx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9Yp-2B60fjf8jQwzrSuUhCB8laNhPnjCyh402k9W-2B7cDeHMI4BARhoVzwxIYDNj0I65m-2BUBom8KYoabhu0bvcbDoL2M6C6w3i92htgFYTQlklEidVbOVqwWOAQrOIDGEqqiyPA-3D-3D)). Fundstrat's **Tom Lee**, despite an 8,000 S&P target, expects a "very severe correction" this fall and said "I'd be watching credit before I watched equities crack… there's actually still too much liquidity out there" ([Prof G Markets, July 3](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiWr6LtlFPM4mAHsXmYIQSPAW5ATgyD5ZTn6deoeLRvCW0yfbA77Ym349TQ9nNvB3Qs0rL9KGJASm5ID2ySP-2B37sryD6-2FXHK3LByJaDl8ZB8Q-3D-3Db832_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9YpyJiWpn4ihf0LNLrivkr5kAcAwU7vZOvMc5KcKIbrzSuey6k3iK4iNw2zYrqbeTx1SH-2BDiOfwRLZnGVn6yrGNafjHdAT-2FsPamZCt6qjwJ2z1BTZRlq2NuSmQJXyr3JiZhw-3D-3D)). And at Sintra, the Bank of Canada's Tiff Macklem and the BOE's Andrew Bailey both flagged rising leverage in hedge funds, repo, leveraged ETFs and private credit. My read, updated: the **equity** window is now confirmed open by the people underwriting it, and the fee pool is broadening (biotech, follow-ons, foreign listings). But the near-term calendar just lost its two biggest names (OpenAI to 2027, and even SpaceX now trading ~19% off its highs), the lockup overhang is enormous, and Warsh's refusal to guide keeps the credit-funded half capped. Still favor elite equity-underwriting and strategic-M&A advisory (GS, MS, NDAQ) over volume leveraged finance. ## Stocks In Play - **Goldman Sachs (GS).** *Bull:* its own CEO on tape confirming the largest follow-on ever, Anthropic's filing, and "more greed than fear"; GS/JPM led the Lime IPO. *Bear:* most levered to the financing slowdown if the rate path stays hawkish and mega-IPOs keep slipping. *Catalyst:* Q2 print (~July 15): IB revenue, backlog, and any color on the AI-mandate pipeline now that OpenAI has slipped. - **Morgan Stanley (MS).** *Bull:* co-underwriter on the marquee calendar, wealth franchise as ballast, and a "Trump Accounts" employer-match participant (a small retail-flywheel tell). *Bear:* rate-driven trading swings under an un-guiding Fed. *Catalyst:* Q2 markets revenue and wealth net-new-asset flows. (Only a peripheral mention this week; no operator commentary.) - **Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).** *Bull:* Sprecher's live bell-ringing profile aside, higher-for-longer rate volatility feeds rates/FX futures and fixed-income data; record issuance is a data tailwind. *Bear:* mortgage-data segment still exposed to a frozen housing market. *Catalyst:* Q2 transaction-vs-recurring-data mix. - **Nasdaq (NDAQ).** *Bull:* the week's clearest winner: SpaceX index inclusion (July 7), SK Hynix's ~$28B ADR (second-largest share sale ever), and Bending Spoons all on the exchange; the fast-entry rule keeps pulling mega-caps in. *Bear:* Greifeld's $800B unlock overhang and Ritter's "IPOs signal tops" caution point to reflexive listings revenue; the fast-entry rule invites governance scrutiny. *Catalyst:* whether OpenAI/Anthropic pick Nasdaq when they do come, and listings-revenue mix in Q2. - **Evercore (EVR).** *Bull:* a 44%-hotter M&A tape and a biotech deal wave are pure boutique fuel. *Bear:* the sponsor half stays capped while rates bite. *Catalyst:* Q2 advisory backlog and MD productivity. (No EVR-specific coverage this week; an honest gap.) - **Moelis (MC).** *Bull:* pure-play advisory with restructuring/liability-management optionality if the leverage flagged at Sintra turns to stress. *Bear:* no trading ballast; most exposed to a deal-volume air pocket. *Catalyst:* Q2 restructuring mix. (No MC-specific coverage this week.) - **Jefferies (JEF).** *Bull:* leveraged-finance plus advisory leverage to a real reopening, and the sector's earliest calendar tell. *Bear:* most directly in the path of any lev-fin slowdown. *Catalyst:* its off-cycle quarter, the group's first read. (No JEF-specific coverage this week.) ## Read-Throughs - **Boutique advisors (EVR/MC/JEF):** the strategic-deal tape is genuinely hotter (44% M&A jump; biotech "deals flooding" per Cramer's sources) and boutiques should catch share, but the sponsor-funded half stays governed by rates. MC keeps the cleanest restructuring hedge if Sintra's leverage warnings bite. - **Leveraged finance & private credit:** quiet on the podcast tape this week (a genuine coverage gap, no dedicated CLO/high-yield episode), but central bankers at Sintra explicitly named hedge-fund/repo/private-credit leverage as a stability risk, and Tom Lee says to watch credit before equities. Slow-burn headwind for lev-fin desks; building tailwind for restructuring. - **PE sponsors monetizing exits:** the exits are real: Advent selling Ultra Maritime to Lockheed ($3.5B), Bruin's ~3x on Full Swing. Meanwhile KKR's Pete Stavros reframed the structural story: "90% of companies with more than $100 million in revenue are private," and even with all clients and co-invest "we're still calling hedge funds… because we can't place the money" ([Dry Powder, July 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhZmsep-2BeYQGebJb-2FpVCKHmEqR5Il-2BWAHmlREQK4iAJ0-2FU9-2FBbZ9GC-2BFRRYgzk7IyqQIAvGS7B2in2OqMk7GPxmXVeRAHOhzzeW2XTulU-2B4NQ-3D-3DMYkm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXdJkfP98aEwq1qHORLDCjIbN2QgOCBi-2B1TJ29xXG9Yp6O-2FIxD65K4Bbfun9jOcCyKQW9voAOr6g8Iv6Me1spJ10o9cztC5U84bqi1ynV80HB-2B1CiC-2F8kByUw2dejZGS6N-2FPeTpG6sPt17oNcCfwUF4kCnhru2LsXJ9vLcNn0g2Pg-3D-3D)). Deep demand for capital = a long advisory runway. - **Exchange listings/data:** SpaceX, SK Hynix and Bending Spoons make three Nasdaq wins in a week; the AI-capex IG issuance wave Solomon sized ($2.6T buildout) feeds ICE/NDAQ fixed-income data over time. ## What Changed vs. Last Week Last week's baseline: Goldman's $1.15T M&A run was pundit-sourced breadth, SpaceX's index inclusion was a July 7 forecast, and private-credit stress had just been named. Four updates: - **The breadth got an operator's signature, upgrade.** Last week it was DealLogic via podcast hosts. This week Solomon himself calls Alphabet the largest follow-on ever and confirms Anthropic's filing. That's a materially higher grade of evidence on the same bull thesis. - **Forecast became fact: SpaceX is in, plus SK Hynix.** Last week's July 7 index-inclusion call happened, and SK Hynix's $28B ADR added a second-largest-ever share sale. NDAQ's listings franchise is compounding wins. - **The pipeline lost its biggest name, downgrade at the margin.** OpenAI reportedly slid toward 2027 (vs. last week's "next in the queue"), and SpaceX is already ~19% off its highs with Greifeld's ~$800B unlock overhang now quantified. The near-term underwriting calendar is thinner than the headlines suggest. - **The Fed story shifted from "two hikes priced" to "no guidance at all."** Last week it was ~75% odds of two hikes; this week Warsh explicitly refused to guide, the market is pricing ~100% odds of an October hike, and a "Fed credibility reversal" narrative is building. Less clarity, not more, and Kantrowitz thinks the Street underrates his hawkishness. - **Private credit went quiet on the tape, but the regulators didn't.** No dedicated CLO/lev-fin episode this week (a gap vs. last week's MetLife/Apollo detail), yet Sintra central bankers named leverage as a systemic watch-item. The risk didn't go away; it moved from a fund manager's mouth to a governor's.