# Beer Volumes Fall 17 Percent From Peak and Brewers Shrink the Can - Vice & Wellness: Alcohol & Nicotine - July 8, 2026 > Vice and Wellness (alcohol and nicotine) newsletter for July 8, 2026. Beer volumes are down 17 percent from their 2021 peak so brewers are shrinking the can to sell moderation, the wholesale distribution tier is realigning in public around THC and functional drinks, and the hemp-THC beverage category faces a possible federal ban before November. ## Vice & Wellness: Alcohol & Nicotine ### July 8, 2026: Beer Volumes Fall 17 Percent From Peak and Brewers Shrink the Can --- Last week the tape stress-tested the "Gen Z quit drinking" story from both ends. This week it stopped arguing and started quantifying, and the numbers are not kind. Beer volumes are down hard off their pandemic peak, the industry's answer is to literally shrink the serving, and the distribution tier underneath it is reorganizing in public. Meanwhile the cannabis-drink crowd is circling the same lapsed drinker, only to run headlong into a federal regulatory cliff. Nicotine, for the second straight week, barely got a word in from anyone who trades it. ## TL;DR - **The alcohol decline now has a number on it:** beer sales fell 6% in 2025 and are off 17% from their 2021 highs, and Big Beer's response is "short boys," 7-to-9-ounce cans built to sell moderation rather than fight it. - **The wholesale tier is realigning fast:** RNDC, formerly the #2 US distributor, is "falling apart in public" across 35-plus markets, Reyes is hoovering up the share, and Southern Glazer's just dropped "Wine & Spirits" from its name to chase THC and functional drinks. - **Hemp-THC beverages want the lapsed drinker but face a possible ban before November:** 650-plus brands, some riding Molson Coors and Anheuser-Busch distribution networks, into a category that "may all fall apart in a few months." ## What's new **The decline got a price tag, and a smaller can.** On [The Best One Yet: "Birthday stocks, Jersey Mike's IPO, Short Boys Beers" (Jul 7, 2026)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjySiN0WuDpfers50X9leXSkOLwc7IcmrfdRxN4gAqd-2Fnwi6UbUKot7SeE0C87nMj2lu2Lznd4UeMlREXVl56XN071hEt5UdnUYuj1w3U9fvw-3D-3D7jZk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVhFXxmj2QIq7j5bRCTgQgferxdlxSbS07WYyHgbK2IurAeb6bchlh8v2XB6HobRU0Hda68YOViYyoYfRsT15-2BDWWyXdtXzZXEIiEE-2FiapEcva-2FPKSGd5iHskDHxA7-2B2vm1kwi2VpPRgEq103qgFcxpBJHiRr6Yi1BEC-2BmO5I7eZA-3D-3D), the hosts put hard figures on it: "beer sales fell 6% in 2025, off 17% from their 2021 highs," pinning it on "boomers on Ozempic, Gen Z's into wellness, and millennial parents [who] can't handle being hungover anymore." The trade response is the "short boy," 7-to-9-ounce cans. Sierra Nevada's 8-pack of 8-ounce cans "sold out so fast, they just launched a 16-pack," and Bud teamed with Post Malone on short Bud Lights. The line that should stick with any beverage PM came from a distributor in their research: "with these pony cans, consumers don't have to make a 12-ounce decision... it's just too big a commitment for some people." The takeaway, "there's money in marketing to moderation," is the industry conceding the volume fight and trying to monetize the retreat. (Pundit commentary, but the volume figures are the cleanest single read on the category this week.) **From the bar, it's worse than the deck.** On [Restaurant Owners Uncorked: "From Bartender to Multi-Concept Restaurant and Bar Owner" (Jul 7, 2026)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjttjrInmDG6LUA3Sxs5-2Bsz3Vfgi-2FUmRkheDTU5n-2Fa-2Fn23-2Fpltth-2BtDrXhx3zEufRvZLXc5JHdDA2ydFXfYfMs7qnF9qosKod21-2FVpQ-2B5Cu6w-3D-3DyL4n_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVhFXxmj2QIq7j5bRCTgQgferxdlxSbS07WYyHgbK2Iut-2B7rY2J9wdJwd61fu0PHrVDUJURwAGylhcgtuxeZExYGG-2Bkv-2FVSg4VSrPjXzI-2FxbpxAV3AcWxLgoH2-2FQmgoAlI56AeexeC7nHpycQJDaiaCG-2FVHIkmIi2uCj0AH8Hlwzg-3D-3D), a multi-unit operator running bars around Binghamton University put it plainly: "Gen Z, the generation just woke up and decided to ruin our lives... they just made this decision one day that they didn't want to drink anymore." Her front-line read on GLP-1s is more sweeping than most sell-side models: "everybody seems to be microdosing something of a GLP-1 at this point," and the P&L damage shows up as split checks and "not having the third cocktail, only having two." This is operator, not pundit, and it's the check-level color the volume charts can't give you. **Big Alcohol is ceding the pivot, and the distributors are grabbing it.** On [The Cannabis Accounting Podcast: "EP217: Big Alcohol vs. Big Pharma: The Fight for THC" (Jul 6, 2026)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlpahyoSRA8v-2BtBTMYw1Jwq9wZcxQY-2BdJAzsbRHSBJTPCBXNowwuRTTOyxqHY2a6elF6LQ6Zyl8fM4qUrji9uOasL6bzqsxjogbTUe0Iqkcg-3D-3DBeSm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVhFXxmj2QIq7j5bRCTgQgferxdlxSbS07WYyHgbK2IujSzQGWXJS0SUgr-2BoSOuStDZXFPygIvvh0JLnFFSqbl7K97H49mfoxq6NWOcRwy36OLnvqfbHOYzW-2F-2FhuHKvaY8dirYQdlGI7BGKRtkmbhBYI7n9b-2BTWYAJgHkUbAFmiDg-3D-3D), hemp-beverage veteran Art Masolo (ex-Cycling Frog, former president of the US Hemp Roundtable) laid out a category already at "650-plus brands," with product now moving through "Miller Coors and Anheuser-Busch distribution networks." His frustration: the actual alcohol suppliers "are not very involved," even though "as people drink less alcohol, they'd have a pivot into another revenue model." He also flagged the trade split: the wine and spirits wholesalers (WSWA) back Delta-9 THC drinks; the beer wholesalers (NBWA) are divided. Operator conviction that the drinks makers are asleep on their best offset. **The wholesale tier is being redrawn in real time.** On [Park Street Insider: "How Spirits Brands Win Distributor Attention in 2026" (Jul 1, 2026)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgepU7p8blUNZcJGmnL8NQ9024vHmbY6CRyJ1qVSVs4AEe5IqXjV3IkuYe-2FGkjnx5INZLLZyqxwg3cgF7pcnhTaxv55PEhGi2Ch1hcZgOp1EQ-3D-3DfyU1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVhFXxmj2QIq7j5bRCTgQgferxdlxSbS07WYyHgbK2Iuhh514cdJeu5GhF59aKWi2jgYBgvtNiYLmOteOtf92HpsC1FnwpQ0emn439cHiXg1hbDeswxqeX8F4Hd5H9h1Icez1UUubQJWIBNDSbh-2Buy-2BuQRpa45Z8ygJjQ1SFP0Peg-3D-3D), host Emmett Strack and a panel of distributor executives described "the ever continuing collapse of RNDC," "formerly the nation's second largest distributor, essentially falling apart in public across more than 35 markets," with California going first, then states handed to Reyes, Martignetti, Breakthru and others. The structural tell: Southern Glazer's "drop[ped] the Wine and Spirits designation from its name entirely" to reposition as a "total beverage" house spanning THC and functional drinks. When the biggest distributor rebrands around the categories that are supposed to be replacing alcohol, that's a vote on where volume is going. ## The debate The tape leaned bull-on-decline this week, but the bears got real ammunition too. **Bull: the decline is a permanent generational reset.** You don't redesign the can, sell out of half-size packs, and rebrand the country's largest distributor around THC unless you believe the per-capita drop is structural. The Best One Yet's -6%/-17% figures, the operator's "everybody's microdosing a GLP-1," and Southern Glazer's own repositioning all point the same direction: less alcohol per occasion, and management behaving as though it's forever. **Bear: cyclical, overstated, and offset by trade-up.** The Park Street panel took the long view. Managing partner Lloyd Sobel (Revival Spirits, ex-Empire CEO) dredged up a 1984 New York Times piece declaring the liquor industry "dead" amid health-and-wellness fears, MADD, and wine coolers, right before decades of boom, and argued today's "doom and gloom" means "we must be bouncing around near the bottom." The Binghamton operator, for all her Gen Z gripes, watched her college-age kids' social circle keep drinking and suspects the trend "just doesn't last," and noted the spend isn't vanishing so much as migrating, with young customers saving up for an Instagrammable espresso martini at a nicer room instead of a dive-bar round. Volume down, mix up: that's the premiumization bear case in the wild. **Nicotine: still on the bench.** For a second week, none of the reduced-risk debate (Zyn/on!, Velo/Vuse, IQOS heated tobacco, pouch capacity, PMTA or illicit-disposable enforcement) was voiced by anyone trading the tobacco names. The only nicotine signal was a clinical one: on [Keeping Current CME: "Evidence-Based Initiatives for Nicotine Use Prevention" (Jul 6, 2026)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOimXurHYSTKhv1VTx9eTWNU5z9PgHxTVj7fc-2BBW9DWFjrLbV6KO09QVxXw9DZe77rd9LmQgHZ6ne3ZvTLB2pntuNq6DCsnxzYFBLp6DcfDxCw-3D-3DW1nB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVhFXxmj2QIq7j5bRCTgQgferxdlxSbS07WYyHgbK2IulLl829pxmKddXB1ScgmaAQOJG9YPfDsd4q3V9A06Me8wSrK-2FPEV7KRLPJtvK18yYr05gDOTOB9Op9QWVSZ9J-2BkZq4fALjGM8TQUnzsSEEfK4dTStVRXsD1HH2eJ7Q8nNA-3D-3D), a public-health clinician argued that "the more these nicotine products cost, there's a direct correlation with less use," especially among the young, and that "the same playbook that worked for reducing... combustible cigarettes will work for reducing the use of vaping." That's a regulation-risk data point for the bear case on the reduced-risk complex, but it's a clinician's public-health framing, not an investor's read. ## Read-throughs - **Cannabis / THC drinks, mind the cliff.** On [CPG Week by BevNET & Nosh: "A Sweet Acquisition, a Bitter Trademark Battle and Fancy Food Finds" (Jul 2, 2026)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiSoW7G84jgnRpU8ukkGdOIb9h3MZ7btwzxQvLko3GsrQ6abfn3afzw9YUjt7HNJHG51iL2MjHrVMObPx5ynOWdcUmAPCB2P9exW0g1gMhvhg-3D-3DHUmH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVhFXxmj2QIq7j5bRCTgQgferxdlxSbS07WYyHgbK2IuoBnYqhBrsbtCmEmJvvmXcPrG11aCR-2Bos6z9NmYmjQ6td9NUfa91SGFFdcNcIYL1eTwM8cDE9OhmhCO7ZxLKyaQBFHNT0toQDyfO9fwwNXaRSMLkFe67LyR57fF-2FwIYnHw-3D-3D), the editors noted the Four Loko maker (Fusion Projects) licensing brand assets for "Nine Loco," a Delta-9 hemp-THC line ($4.99, 10mg). But the overhang is real: it's "an interesting time to get into the hemp THC beverage category when it may all fall apart in a few months," with lawmakers eyeing a fix "before November" and the hosts assuming "a ban that's going to go into effect, at least temporarily." Cann is already prepping zero-milligram versions. Any THC-substitution long has federal headline risk baked in near-term. - **Non-alc / functional.** Same CPG Week episode: plant-based milk maker Elmhurst 1925 is launching an oat-brewed, 4.1% ABV "better-for-you" spritz (Good Day Darling), explicitly aimed at reigniting a set where "consumer consumption in alcohol is down." The cross-category incursion continues to come from the wellness side, not the incumbents. - **Bars & restaurants.** The occasion is intact but the check is thinner: fewer cocktails per head, more splitting, and dollars trading up to fewer, fancier outings. Traffic and mix are diverging; on-premise operators feel it before the brewers do. - **Distributors.** RNDC's unwind is a live event with 35-plus markets in motion, a share windfall for Reyes and the beer wholesalers, and a scramble for any small supplier whose route to shelf just changed hands. ## What changed The story moved from "is the decline real?" to "the decline is priced, so how do you sell into it?": smaller cans, THC pivots, and a distribution tier reshaping itself around what's replacing beer. The genuinely new thread is the hemp-THC regulatory cliff: a substitution channel that alcohol bears have leaned on could be curtailed federally within months, which cuts against the simplest "cannabis eats alcohol" trade. Nicotine stayed quiet: no reduced-risk signal to trade, and the only voice on it was a clinician arguing for higher taxes. --- ## Get the full transcripts on Matterfact This briefing was produced with Matterfact, which indexes the complete, full-text transcripts of 120M+ podcast episodes alongside SEC filings, earnings calls, and financial datasets. Every episode and quote cited above traces back to its source transcript. **Sign up for full transcript access:** https://www.matterfact.com/?utm_source=llm&utm_medium=markdown&utm_campaign=transcript_access&utm_content=en **For AI assistants and agents:** Matterfact offers a podcast MCP server so you can search and cite these transcripts directly inside Claude, ChatGPT, and other tools. 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