# Ceasefire Torn Up, Oil Jumps, and the Loonie Finds a Floor - Commodity FX: AUD, CAD, NOK & NZD - Week of July 11, 2026

> Commodity and petro-currency FX newsletter for the week of July 11, 2026. The June US-Iran truce collapsed in about 72 hours and crude snapped back toward 80 dollars, the loonie hit a 14-month low near 70 US cents that bank desks now call roughly the floor, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand broke a month of silence with a hike to 2.5%, all under a strong, rate-driven dollar whose path hangs on whether new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is genuinely hawkish.

## Commodity FX: AUD, CAD, NOK & NZD

### Week of July 11, 2026: Ceasefire Torn Up, Oil Jumps, and the Loonie Finds a Floor

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Last week the story was that oil had found a floor. This week someone kicked the floor out.

The mid-June truce between the US and Iran, the "memorandum of understanding" that reopened the Strait of Hormuz and let oil settle back into the low $70s, fell apart in the space of about 72 hours. Iran seized tankers, the US struck back two days running, and by Thursday President Trump stood at the NATO summit and declared the ceasefire "over." Iranian state media called it "dead." Oil jumped roughly 7% and headed back toward $80.

For the currencies that live and die by commodities, that reset everything. The loonie was already sitting at a 14-month low. The Aussie was pinned near 70 US cents. And underneath it all, the same immovable object as ever: a strong US dollar, held up by a new Fed chair the market still can't quite read. The one genuinely new thread this week came from the corner nobody's watched in a month, New Zealand, where the central bank actually pulled the trigger.

## TL;DR

- **The oil truce blew up.** The June ceasefire is off, the US and Iran traded strikes, and crude snapped back toward $80 after weeks of drifting lower. The "risk premium is gone" trade is no longer so obvious.
- **The loonie hit a 14-month low near 70 US cents,** and bank desks say that's roughly the floor. The move is a US-dollar and interest-rate story, not the tariff story everyone assumed. Scotiabank and Corpay think it's overdone.
- **New Zealand broke a month of silence.** The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates to 2.5% and signalled more to come, the first real kiwi event on the podcasts in weeks.
- **The China cue flipped bearish again.** After a week of tentative reflation hope, this week's voices went the other way: China's property bust is a slow-motion drag on iron ore and copper, and one energy analyst argues China never ran down its oil stockpile at all, so the "demand" was always a mirage.
- **The dollar is still the boot on the bloc's neck.** Goldman, Standard Chartered and a veteran FX trader all say the same thing: this is a broad, rate-driven dollar, and whether it keeps rising hangs on one question, is Kevin Warsh actually a hawk, or just talking like one?

## What's New

**The oil truce came apart, and crude snapped back.** This is the week's single biggest development. The June "memorandum of understanding," a plain-English way of saying a written truce short of a formal treaty, had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane that roughly a fifth of the world's oil squeezes through. This week it unravelled fast. As CNBC's Karen Cho laid out on [Squawk Box Europe Express](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgrvrM7ShdmSdnpBuPrGVd7f-2BaUYpR5rdpDKW9nImwwFzY8HDWwS62KmJ0TLZcwlddP5czqaseo4X0-2FsE5MPbWBWxZKRFOXgvguSOJvaJSQjw-3D-3DIlDI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B0eBvXg8xuyato5MnijLP1vPoQ5DV583WEoQYh1EY-2FbVgCrBl1rIlL0f0z9pnasZJhk9wofT5PitmVvDSitBnVhRlsAcgqvIbbtSWeOi2QuKLfxIbKpkxNh9pr2Nmj5D2Q-3D-3D) (Jul 9), Iran's Revolutionary Guard hit US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, the US struck Iranian missile, drone and radar sites two days in a row, and Trump used the NATO summit in Ankara to declare the deal finished. On the same podcast you can hear the President himself insisting the opposite of what the price was doing: "The prices of oil are dropping like a rock... we have an oil glut right now, because we got all those boats out of the strait," even as, in the anchors' words, "Brent prices are still edging towards the $80 a barrel mark," up about 7% on the day. Operator and primary-source material. The takeaway for the petro-currencies (the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone) is blunt: the geopolitical risk premium that everyone had written off two weeks ago came roaring back, and it can come back again.

**The loonie hit a 14-month low, and the reason isn't what you think.** The cleanest currency story of the week was Canadian, and it came via a [Hub Podcasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhr-2BgVuBDE11alxcaonp1Po8xY5n21-2FgkfurfR9xQ8rW-2BVQ9oEjooOMpvGJLYb2KNsRoctHlEtRGJEMwm9IYM-2FWUdRJ6PNYdi3crgdV7hf9YQ-3D-3D6tEl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2Bwcgsa3STdwIJin084OpQbt50XVZ37RaJ0VwGLbxK6kbZ2-2Bma64IprJTBGk7s96RgLEAwADKeB2lCJITRs96znf5VbJ6zHNRsFQqTACYmVZCPlhJkdalVn8f6bM2NUHmNg-3D-3D) essay (Jul 9) that gathered a genuine roster of bank strategists. The loonie touched a 14-month low near 70 US cents just as the July 1 deadline to renew the North American trade pact (KUSMA, the successor to NAFTA) came and went with no renewal: the Trump administration let it lapse and started a decade-long wind-down clock. The obvious conclusion would be that trade fear sank the currency. The strategists say no. "The timing of the move shows this is clearly a rate differential story, driven in particular by Kevin Warsh's notably hawkish first FOMC meeting as chair," said Bradley Saunders of Capital Economics; the trade uncertainty "hasn't really changed in recent months." Sean Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank, put numbers on how violently the mood flipped: back in January the market priced more than 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts for 2026 plus a modest Canadian hike; by late June it had swung to pricing 40 basis points of American hikes. His conclusion is the one that matters for anyone short the loonie: "the yield shock is largely played out... we think the CAD is somewhere near a floor at this point." Corpay's Carl Shimata went further: "it's more a story about the greenback's strength than Canada's failings. The loonie has actually outperformed many of its major counterparts this year," and argued the market has "overdone it." Operator views (sell-side FX strategists with real books). Bank forecasts cluster at 72–75 US cents by year-end; 70 cents, Saunders noted, "appears to be a sort of psychological barrier."

**New Zealand finally did something.** For weeks the kiwi has been a ghost on these podcasts. This week it showed up: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its cash rate to 2.5%, and the tightening isn't done. As NAB's team relayed on [NAB Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgoN7YlaoVx2DnWRP-2Bk5BvwhdAqPD5TnfPkpRcx-2F6q2MJka-2BaDMKZ7p-2BX48j2tety11ZR7BSDuWFBv5NL0IIQ0SPhOt8XcuODkVB335awy67g-3D-3DYSl8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2BzG1XJo6lxHzZE3vGmcqcTIrEuejGRuNqONWJI6YVTRZA3mUId1kKsPNzoKwSIX4LMwr62syuPVfuoq-2BjGtIaWItjAlCyek0y5yWoMFXqckntcIm0jSRpLKXHvYRlhNI6g-3D-3D) (Jul 8), the decision was reached by consensus (not unanimous, two external members wanted to flag upside inflation risk), and NAB's New Zealand colleagues at BNZ expect another hike in September, with "a series of hikes" still in their forecast. The one wrinkle: the bank might duck an October move because it lands near election time, "we think they shouldn't, but the reality is they may." Operator view. The same episode carried a sobering statistic for both antipodean currencies: over the five years to early 2026, the OECD says New Zealand had the worst real wage growth in the developed world, down 6.4%, with Australia fourth-worst at down 5.1%. Households in both countries genuinely are poorer, which is the backdrop every rate hike lands on.

**The China cue swung back to gloom.** Last week, for the first time in a month, a couple of voices argued China was quietly turning back on. This week the pendulum swung hard the other way, and the most authoritative version came from George Magnus, the economist who was UBS's chief economist for years and wrote a book on China's fragilities, on the [NAB Morning Call weekend edition](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOigYprt460crRKOh7LFQEb-2FtXeMh1DssvAVwlShhOhxiIyvQskPdo-2Bknrb3WxnEoPsbJ21ofNsvaTyxcFDkLKyXLFRcB3vrZz2lySr8j8xTMQ-3D-3DMEE0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B55-2BPqji4WDtrNLKXr2wCPe3VOjwCJnh28vOGu1BWUU63pNOFa4lelBjk9bndGe8euCOWvA3nTTG2uHuV8DKGUWk0okHizoeornmGSY2U3slKJDnMj9HeBXSDtm-2BzIUTDg-3D-3D) (Jul 10). His argument, in plain terms: Chinese property is the most important sector in the world for commodity demand, it ballooned to roughly 23–24% of GDP at its 2021 peak (he notes that's twice the size of Spain's or Ireland's housing bubbles before 2008, and America's was only 7–8% at the Lehman moment), and it is now in the fifth year of a slump with "years to go." All the concrete, glass, copper and iron ore that goes into building simply isn't being bought. His advice for the miners was unusually direct: "If you were an Australian coal or iron ore producer, hedging your future business risks might be kind of a good thing." He also thinks China's true growth is "probably not much more than about 3%, maybe even less," not the official 5%. Operator/expert view.

> "If you were an Australian coal or iron ore producer, hedging your future business risks might be kind of a good thing." (George Magnus)

**The other China surprise: the oil "demand collapse" may never have happened.** Trisha Curtis, who runs the research shop PetroNerds, made a sharp, contrarian case on the [Energy News Beat Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BJFym6AIrX7FT4xAY5dl25uIZ44-2FhFFUaQKkqI1RPnzOs3qDyGlXM-2BUh6ybgOpZ8zZCFxf-2FwhBJcnAGidGBzNRJdCB3SurdcERY3XjszwuQ-3D-3DK0Dl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B94MkAkqQwQ6mfD7QVz8q0-2FkBd2aZ0felMT-2FaBG-2Fidt8t5YSpyFB6E-2FgQbtHH1gI-2F5KkhCZtkKNXIIAm4gMKcC4hvUKCb6QjcLW9e45oVyaZi7d9bj-2BeXbeTxuonMrXI2g-3D-3D) (Jul 9). Everyone keeps citing a ~5-million-barrel-a-day drop in Chinese oil imports as evidence of weak demand. Curtis says that's backwards: China had been stockpiling three to four million barrels a day for years (the International Energy Agency admitted China stashed 40 million barrels in March alone, at the height of the conflict), so the import drop is simply China choosing to stop hoarding, not people driving less. "I do not believe they have dipped into their stocks at all," she said, which means the world is actually more oversupplied than the bulls admit. Her read on oil itself is constructive for producers without being giddy: "$70 oil is a damn good price," US shale that hedges is "profitable all day long," and Canadian oil-sands output is "sticky," it grows and keeps growing, unlike fast-declining shale. Operator view. For the Canadian dollar, that last point is the quiet good news buried in a bearish oil week: Canadian barrels keep flowing regardless.

**The structural bull case: this is the third supply shock of the decade.** For the longer horizon, Greg Sharenow, who runs commodity and real-asset investing at PIMCO, gave the most useful framing on [PIMCO's Accrued Interest](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiUY0hSLGmgrbdHFIjadHJoVWAOzQt3JcmWa5BXSXcwovT-2BR1ATBYhfMcIaDWpktqfzt657pSVbrJrXetw7mRlYbW7kjiYFw4wUX8IpoNKKoA-3D-3D7h7D_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B2mnz9R9fiRPzjeOcbRI6aaa7eray6w6Bt1JOomG1NuY7haerjS-2FzKFzElV2WtDAJuJ9VHdQorR85aNsbbqtEFxZh3ZpG31DjV8AIZsV0FfqNRGnfUArTwa-2Bw-2Fmi-2BWjtbA-3D-3D) (Jul 6). His point about how tight the system is: global inventories have seen "some of the sharpest draws we've seen in history" over the last two months, so any hiccup gets amplified into a price spike. At the peak of the conflict the world lost 15–17% of its oil supply, and for comparison, COVID at its worst took out less than 10% of demand. And zooming out, he counts three enormous, commodity-hungry spending waves arriving at once, military rearmament, the AI data-center build-out, and the energy transition, hitting a metals industry where reinvestment is at "40-year lows." That's a multi-year bullish setup for the raw materials the commodity-FX bloc digs up and ships, even if the next few months stay choppy. Operator view.

**And the boot that never lifts: the dollar.** None of the above matters as much as the greenback, and this week three separate FX heavyweights said the same thing in three different rooms. On Goldman Sachs's own podcast, [The Markets](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJsijPvVUy7M6xmdSqnnf5x93Wak4IC2i6QsyK24YXjXJRn88jHPpBwNz3Fd6X-2FUYBgzy8vR8NyMPBkBfj707tf3zrQ83R-2BExAT7gpn9MzYw-3D-3Dz36Y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B1nnr1F2N8VhclhdQs8YcVpqhWrHTGU3WZRIaEwsXNREiurMZreETARrH228JvO7ccCaM4swyoKMMqDssrQ-2BoMJcrIyuSgrNJcR9lFmqX8sIOaNVXTvyK9Sio80X5ZJ9ZA-3D-3D) (Jul 10), Brian Dunn, who runs the firm's Americas FX options trading, named three engines of dollar strength, the Iran conflict, the still-intact AI trade (America's exceptionalism), and the Fed's turn toward hawkishness, and made the key point for everyone betting on a currency rebound: even if the Fed just holds, "real rate differentials still point towards the dollar having appreciation value going into the end of the year." Standard Chartered's Steve Englander, its global head of G10 FX research, put it more colourfully on [Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgCQeP5cqHa3ShoowG9Eo1oLT5JQPPl05rD4kGfIg9YfxXxtiGplZUTkY4XYpRXZp7CskCaxaTVipwGTGq6HdcgzdN6ONkGp0u-2FxArxyf3Tjw-3D-3DmYD1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2By7K9fXoyfFZHCaPo2SNw6oVSsN7wsq9mF8sdJys4JG8C2lZ0DQa582idOm4-2FTKDNB1M1M5alt3nn9jwQytG0Qv0KAQdUFqJfz1ORf-2B-2Br0-2F0IzHcxQvYWY9-2FiEZ3-2FsR2DQ-3D-3D) (Jul 9): US real interest rates are "at the highest levels in recent years" and, crucially, rising "for good reasons," a genuine productivity story that pulls in global capital. "The US is like a hedge fund. We borrow from places that save and we invest it." He also flagged the mood shift: after a year of everyone hating the dollar, investors are finally warming to it, but "there's still a reluctance to buy it." Operator views. Until that reluctance turns into conviction one way or the other, the whole exporter-FX bloc trades with a lid on it.

## The Debate

The week's real argument isn't bull-versus-bear on China or oil. It's a single question that decides the dollar, and therefore the fate of every currency in this letter: is the new Fed chair genuinely hawkish, or just performing?

**The hawk case.** Kevin Warsh's first meeting (June 17) was, by any measure, a regime change. As former St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and PGIM's Daleep Singh detailed on [The Outthinking Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhgPOBd-2Fhnx2670KlLFOCCxaYxKC9oXDrp7i73Sx8mR6sCKQPVT6i2jOU0Qi0DC3MmYl-2FkxOs5wfF3L0qmmuNSlbcXWIaITuHULDJabCrDUsA-3D-3DttGm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B8rmUBLrobLaV-2BZTDSXILDjP-2BXzoa3VRjP8YybqBm-2FfMtl8ONQgRV9Z0E59vHIIzIwi8Z5GYr9YakTvuSIlP4iJkh8YhVM6DZMyGrrruMw6-2F32pCW07vVBQoiBz08G3XCQ-3D-3D) (Jul 7), the Fed held rates but shrank its statement from 341 words to 130, dropped its easing bias, flipped its own rate projection from a cut to a hike, and offered almost no forward guidance beyond a hard focus on price stability. PGIM's out-of-consensus call is that this Fed hikes 75 basis points this year, with core inflation still running above 3%. Goldman's Dunn backs the direction with the cleanest single stat of the week: in March, zero Fed officials projected a rate hike; by June, nine did. He thinks the market is still underpricing how hawkish this could get.

**The "he's bluffing" case.** The pushback was just as credible, and it came from an FX trader who does this for a living. Brent Donnelly, on [Forward Guidance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh1rRn93pW195gToI7ao9Po7Noaxy8TayF2CZl80gmlN7Xnn3fuu-2BkqdZZLgdE-2FLwpG-2FFZnshufy79HPmPwpUmyLCxj4cDtc2Dr7ZKlkfyA9g-3D-3DnBdB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B97og3lq6AubZXLdlh6SHKMufgWneRQc5ilTmU6qHqgNfrsT6iZw3Rl1KiS50Pwtd9odypW8yARgrxoEtwttYJF1MnyZmrqptKCIqFUAvnU8GnDZRm2KpMsE6-2BoeZHMn-2Fg-3D-3D) (Jul 8), was blunt: "He'll end up being a lot more dovish over time... I don't believe him. I think he's just saying what he needs to say." Every new Fed chair comes out swinging on inflation, he argues; that's the job. With oil having cooled and inflation expectations falling, Donnelly expects Warsh to quietly walk it back and leave rates unchanged into December. His one caveat is the thing to watch: if the next jobs report runs hot, "I'd be a little bit nervous about the July meeting," because there's a camp inside the Fed that believes hiking now means hiking less later. Donnelly's larger point ties the whole bloc together: the dollar's breakout is "not that much idiosyncratic," it's a broad, rate-driven move that has swept in even emerging-market currencies, "the monolithic dollar blob," and the once-hot bet against the dollar is capitulating: "the debasement trade is in debasement at the moment."

**The honest read: this is a real two-sided debate, and it's unresolved.** Both sides agree on the mechanism: real rate differentials drive the dollar, and the dollar drives the commodity-FX bloc. They just disagree on whether Warsh delivers. That single call is the swing factor for the Aussie, the loonie and the krone alike, and next week hands us the first real test: US inflation data on Tuesday, followed 90 minutes later by Warsh's testimony (a timing quirk MUFG's Derek Halpenny flagged on the [MUFG Global Markets Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh65rrVRXTY36lCkByjL0hEFzUu4XBd4z1GI-2B6c7Xg3GKvuZqKhUUjha89oyzBHscdW9zjherN9rVcJbjAq5eypFroJws0Yhd5YSbkqvxfPUQ-3D-3Do-mO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B790723WBHO8PktKz699u-2F39lUcWP3Vo40LanJJpuy0F3M7BCor-2Bf94aSIJXbrjY9vzRkaN-2FNpme5JHu9G1fapSPI0MRsXCBnI2PtpYRLtnMt7orRLFEtViDqCvwXG5jgw-3D-3D), Jul 10).

## The Trades in Play

One expression genuinely surfaced, and it's a contrarian long on the Canadian dollar. It isn't one loud call, it's a cluster of bank strategists on [Hub Podcasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhr-2BgVuBDE11alxcaonp1Po8xY5n21-2FgkfurfR9xQ8rW-2BVQ9oEjooOMpvGJLYb2KNsRoctHlEtRGJEMwm9IYM-2FWUdRJ6PNYdi3crgdV7hf9YQ-3D-3D3Vwo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2By8evWTpGEv-2F9Cd440eWj5E3-2FuUFO39y-2BU3wxpgHqWZmSy7y7pMVRHfIuibRUv8Ld0Md2ujAE6RMN5WLxcG-2BvXijs5Z7fNEiXO-2F4I6r0NXVYd6FqkwePMkxyQ-2F2v3JSJsQ-3D-3D) (Jul 9) independently arriving at the same conclusion: near 70 US cents, the loonie has priced in the bad news. Scotiabank's Sean Osborne says the yield shock "is largely played out" and the currency is "somewhere near a floor"; Corpay's Carl Shimata says the market has "overdone it" and the loonie should grind back toward 1.35 (about 74 US cents); even the most bearish voice, Capital Economics, sees only a shallow further dip to 69 cents before a recovery, and calls 70 cents a "psychological barrier." That's several real desks flagging the same buy zone in the same week, the closest thing to an actionable idea the podcasts offered. The obvious risk to it is the one splashed across the top of this issue: if the Iran conflict re-escalates and the dollar gets another safe-haven bid, the floor gets tested again. No clean krone or krona trade was voiced, the Scandi bloc stayed silent for yet another week.

## Read-Throughs

**Iron ore + BHP / Rio / Fortescue:** the one substantive call was bearish and came from George Magnus on the [NAB weekend edition](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOigYprt460crRKOh7LFQEb-2FtXeMh1DssvAVwlShhOhxiIyvQskPdo-2Bknrb3WxnEoPsbJ21ofNsvaTyxcFDkLKyXLFRcB3vrZz2lySr8j8xTMQ-3D-3Ddk5x_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B6HNYMjCEX1-2BhONwGIhkQsTCCCdDwWxE5pEXliq5wyKcHRLvTMET7cam6krhgpAsOV2E0XX-2BkXcjOPgAIwlrgMLKQF1jL0-2FJL-2BRIJyQDS8uObZZ1SNaa76wHuswo2HeDxA-3D-3D) (Jul 10): China's five-year property bust structurally erodes demand for iron ore, and Australian producers should be hedging. No bullish iron-ore desk showed up this week to argue the other side. (A retail-focused Australian pundit, see below, waved at a "structural resource boom" lifting BHP, Rio and Fortescue, but offered no price work to back it.)

**WTI / Brent + Canadian energy (CNQ, SU, ENB):** oil is the whole story and it's now two-sided. The bulls: Dan Steffens on [The Jay Young Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjpQAbw3rfG2iqZJnEBheyc-2FxDew9XtGoOaLeOjTGuzabjWonZV2yhMzgriqMq3lV4fa4hdMAPnY-2FNChS1pKxc2SAx0kZE7WAg7Rbzp8ISdyA-3D-3D96Ne_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B4bcwjmLCEQ0i2KNXAJsopK1NcZK2En5tEBq8HqyTzBxdPh-2FdZM-2FDl5pE6aYo3OGxTTr8317WWyd8X2vUYqR9rcwrD2T5vA9LVcFDa5cQsAMSO23u0fA-2BkRWE3HnCUhb3Q-3D-3D) (Jul 8) argues refining margins imply WTI "should be" near $110 and the US is genuinely short of oil, with refineries running flat-out at 95%+ and the strategic reserve near its operational floor. The bears: MUFG (Jul 10) flags an "ultimate bearish backdrop," Saudi Aramco just cut its Asian selling price by $11 a barrel for August, "the biggest monthly cut in two decades," and Trisha Curtis on [Energy News Beat](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BJFym6AIrX7FT4xAY5dl25uIZ44-2FhFFUaQKkqI1RPnzOs3qDyGlXM-2BUh6ybgOpZ8zZCFxf-2FwhBJcnAGidGBzNRJdCB3SurdcERY3XjszwuQ-3D-3Di2DW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B9287BtqXmK0uNEDdZPhw4BLIHRsN7cx79mE6RteSL69GQaCIzwxE7P8tGRbrmRkUPcIArc9bZ7ly86vkkNb1240EJeIb-2FZDDMu9omD2HQTIxu1nJnSSHNFBzxr6r29z5Q-3D-3D) (Jul 9) sees a real glut once you strip out China's stockpiling illusion. Her sub-plot matters for Canada specifically: oil-sands production is "sticky" and keeps growing, so Canadian volumes hold up even in a soft-price world. No single-name CNQ/SU/ENB calls this week, the read is sector, not stock.

**Copper:** quiet and unconvincing after last week's $15,000 target. A technical trader on [The KE Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOht7J8tzzffA5I-2F47NIgfKK8-2BcgRKWrl-2BiWEjRANMec-2Fgkb8u5lGHKWkk8GM4RHwIOBTRKQXWHSCUWATcjVx4mkExllIaqBvLWHjzU0FuXpxQ-3D-3D6YeY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B56VBr5dS7-2BvWn3GXWTUeMoVC-2Fs-2F9QuvsE55KFcmGxlrXM8wxQneU5vlEel-2FklrfL84u9tKFzg-2FoeVVJfmt7EpI-2FZt2fbC2BCOqy2fFfTuhBSC7KV6Af-2F9D7YW39F8ElJQ-3D-3D) (Jul 7) said he'd stepped out of copper (Teck, Southern Copper) because the price action is too choppy and range-bound. The only structural bull note came second-hand, folded into PIMCO's broader "three CapEx cycles, thin metal supply" thesis. Nothing this week to move the needle.

**The yuan as a China proxy:** Standard Chartered's Englander (Jul 9) sees the renminbi "not going to go anywhere very fast," Beijing is holding it steady on a huge trade surplus. And a fascinating footnote from Goldman's Dunn (Jul 10): the fear that Iran might start charging for Hormuz transit in yuan rather than dollars, which would chip at the petrodollar, simply "hasn't [materialised] at all." The dollar's plumbing is intact.

**MXN / Banxico:** silent on the currency and central-bank angle again this week. (There was Mexico business chatter, but nothing on the peso or rates.)

**Equinor / NOK, Swedish housing / banks / SEK:** silent. Not a single Norges Bank, Equinor, Riksbank, or Swedish-bank voice on the podcasts this week. Noting the gap rather than padding it, it's now a persistent one.

**The China growth cue:** decisively bearish this week (Magnus's structural bust, Curtis's stockpiling-not-demand argument), a reversal from last week's tentative reflation hope. No one made the bull case this week.

**A note on one loud Australian voice, clearly labelled:** a retail-audience host on [Money Grows on Trees](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhObwgxf5EAjML3kw3tJyofjw5hQk7cUrHu3C-2FgPMK1k73fQm56up2V9k-2F6NW6lyu92vVED4OYSmHlmbbQ9YlPoti0YzVqKUD1Ss5AhaVWUPA-3D-3DZjs1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXG8MS1BskhfAJxEhxsqNHpqNX9Bj2hQBe4-2FBmtpKS-2B-2B9y9Eldpiucuu4q4X6NQoALTgqBOVHpA4k-2BmFg5gahRBuhsBKajTL7CVAp1DYmfXxklZqfx4ZU7ZPOWwhtULqub9x7QShz77f7MM9v9sFzQ7x9d07ler4eQZi0k8JcPcdw-3D-3D) (Jul 8) declared Australia is now in outright "stagflation," inflation at 4.8%, growth collapsed to 1.3%, the cash rate at 4.35% after three hikes this year (February, March, May), and a call for rates to reach 5.5-6% with a recession "within the next four quarters." It's vivid and the direction rhymes with the sober operators (the RBA is the developed world's hawk, housing is rolling over), but this is pundit opinion talking a book, property, oil stocks, laundromats, not an operator with a real read on policy. Treat the numbers as claims, not gospel; the reliable Aussie read remains the RBA's own restrictive stance and a housing market visibly cooling.

## What Changed

Three threads genuinely moved this week.

**Oil flipped from floor to spike.** Last week the desks had converged on a new range near $70 with the Strait of Hormuz reopening as the base case. This week that base case broke: the ceasefire collapsed, the US and Iran traded strikes, and crude jumped back toward $80. The debate is no longer "how high is the floor" but "does this re-escalate," and both a real bull case (tight inventories, refining math) and a real bear case (a Saudi price cut, a China glut) now sit on the table.

**The China cue swung back to bearish.** Last week's tentative reflation defenders went quiet, and the structural pessimists took the microphone: property drag on metals, and the argument that China's oil "demand" was always just stockpiling. That's a headwind for the Aussie and for iron ore.

**New Zealand woke up.** After weeks of total silence, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand actually hiked to 2.5% and signalled more, a live thread for the kiwi where there'd been none. And the loonie went from an afterthought to the week's cleanest FX story: a 14-month low that a chorus of bank strategists says is roughly the bottom.

What didn't change: the dollar is still the dominant force, Warsh is still the unresolved question, and the Scandinavian currencies are still nowhere to be heard.

---

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