# Copper Waits on a Tariff Decision While Fertilizer Faces an Antitrust Reckoning - Metals & Critical Minerals Weekly - Week of July 12, 2026

> Metals, critical minerals and crop-input newsletter for the week of July 5-12, 2026. Copper's path for the rest of 2026 hinges on a delayed Section 232 tariff decision, U.S. farmers detail why they pay $150-$200 more per ton for fertilizer as the DOJ and FTC circle, and governments from Canada to the U.S. keep stepping in as buyers of the critical-minerals supply chain.

## Metals & Critical Minerals Weekly

### Week of July 12, 2026: Copper Waits on a Tariff Decision While Fertilizer Faces an Antitrust Reckoning

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The weekly read on metals, critical minerals and the stuff that feeds crops, built entirely from this week's podcasts (July 5-12, 2026).

Two very different stories dominated the podcasts this week, and both come down to the same thing: who controls supply, and what a government is willing to do about it.

In copper, the whole market is holding its breath for a single piece of paper, a tariff decision that was due on the President's desk two weeks ago and still hasn't landed. In fertilizer, American farmers spent the week describing, in plain and angry detail, why they pay $150-$200 more per ton than a farmer in Brazil buying from the very same companies, and why the Justice Department and the FTC are now circling. Rare earths were all about governments writing checks (Canada put $400M into a smelter). Steel is quietly the tightest it's been since 2009. And battery metals, as a standalone story, barely showed up at all.

Here's the whole picture.

## TL;DR

- **Copper is a coin flip on policy, not supply.** J.P. Morgan says the metal's whole path for the rest of 2026 hinges on how a delayed U.S. tariff decision is worded. Their base case: an "escalatory" tariff in the coming weeks pushes copper from about $13,500 a ton toward $15,000. The opposite outcome could hand pricing power back to China. [At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQu14RhHD6tfHRR9MEWWMqnFF7LLtfvhqYvbl4Ht-2FnGRxcF-2FRBhfJi24o6pzvwaZGbUqJ-2BI5eo7-2FuDhmJ-2BtIuX6Jo3VdK0I1hU11oAX6JYdQ-3D-3DOJwu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHyVa1jBPlmAVlBLcboSrPxTvDnIqc4j7e1j1zUcoR1-2BwU4ApxNyPgV6djQqmsiwnPw76NhdL4hrq-2B4jdeDeE8dgbRO9Hg9U3CgZ3qPgk-2Fy-2FCwrgQifbk8aXYOG6kWrZEEw-3D-3D)
- **The copper bulls are getting loud.** Tavi Costa called copper "structurally bullish" and said it looks like "where silver was at $40", i.e. early. His one-liner: "If there is one thing where institutions should be throwing money at it, it's copper mines." [Palisades Gold Radio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjuv9Y0JVlHS3-2B9MSaOsW14Ipy3DRQBs2aG9Hp0-2FEX1v8iQJOrvRco66Hl3-2BQ9NZbvu9UDROzyIFPzMg4Rqw4I5vNyW-2B4rUrHRJ6z3S0dozFw-3D-3D7c9n_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH2I-2FikPbaSRQPbSbnXTgT1ylekgw4KznqqvJhgyethZ00jn9U4w6dtfn9jfVGv-2B9VNdBnhdsgDYtMrT9pcyM79zUzKdkvr7spVmADjbhvEB6vMrZWKIZS4TUsFIBQhlm-2Bw-3D-3D)
- **Fertilizer is where the real fight is.** U.S. retail fertilizer costs are up nearly 20% year-on-year while expected corn revenue is *down* 5.5%. A retired general aside, this was the week's most political story: a DOJ criminal antitrust probe and an FTC investigation into the handful of companies that control the world's nutrients. [AG Bull](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjioioAi9esDk0gbGTwraRSPsBMr9P5onskp9-2FqZx2Twp93zLhRttIDEcryOlaJRka1uTGB3N-2BXRmIdC2uCNf3hxPn5mQUNBwOTa9iCOOpc3Q-3D-3DHVmu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH98SxQrevHLTMSe1zc9o8DNeJOYBr7d1QdufqRndkF7XQDFwguo8DGB-2Bv73TvhLEzDZBNRICbhP0ir78SgLPA4wCeFUPu6fNP-2FEjfwqgdmStMFYNozW2Kyjq8HeBgPQyYQ-3D-3D) · [Grain Markets and Other Stuff](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5Se0VSgsyjEt7DsytvK8Py8NpoeS-2Fh-2FkFrWvZWG2J9ZmDdskTLFKhc7nCNoeCfALbuc51gfBPd8Z78x4FHdMk1WewtllzG4U4K3QjohiYAA-3D-3DYdjl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH3I5ZK0gzApR-2ByWN6wZ8tl2rspnHSif2-2Fes78Tkywi-2BKI-2BNEUfb0gnqqpFiqVE97AlT6QdwEDyuIYrDKyWarHD0X5hgdHvUJaYMb0-2Bx2VSFo9gbaMHX2J4U3RFzmnB-2BFxQ-3D-3D) · [Kernels with Ohio Corn & Wheat](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgeka-2Femd13StLAt7l-2FVQEGdFGxuNKEbJoHhbv29pF61cOjLOEu8ikn-2Fd0xNnurciU98No-2B73Ru0vg-2BQNq2khXrSbboxG7JkHQZO9BiDtXYZQ-3D-3DEP7P_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHy66ZaD0wjh2fAShH6l7iSKJTkOU-2FVuSeGcqIuyaAuCNpxS1avJw4Qdv00I0EMKYhyvoxAeof2TyDJOufdL7aVSNRKoGmQ2O6Zg8aBurUirXnQr1h827awCgERMgqJEIpQ-3D-3D)
- **Rare earths: governments are now buyers.** Canada committed up to $400M to Teck's Trail smelter, and a retired U.S. Army general argued Washington is funding the wrong end of the supply chain. [The Canadian Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjBtTQvzt0dxSYApxqQVT2wXf0tOn4KIoend33QXeT-2FD8XAD3hRk4XBtnkiNgr4SlOHY-2FWcpA32ZsztZblagOdvKxl9yMM29e7reCrcEnblZw-3D-3DjaPw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHyt8wyuO67YNNbupguIM-2F4vrGYSsfS0SdKdiMT-2BIP6a6pVB4WmVPeiDwhYT0M9z2LW8OYFUzkIg1OyqCKA9-2BnijqyW3-2B2vWDnhUSQuVS0Swz40U7aFQdp0GlvGqiBXpLDA-3D-3D) · [The Northern Miner Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxGCzKHtFlztHrUIWcHTL-2B-2BSp5-2BwaK7G8Svhu0Rdf2FB21Ovo9rr670-2FFc154444k1-2F97sdoDa1Jyo5mKvWwjAD-2FT7F8KcDp334-2FppAWojNQ-3D-3DkM-F_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH0HtLNkyWAgpllVNE3wgJ9gYo5YU9d5tT-2FGCEgb7BoDUxk6LXFzFyHo7muRnO7O65MFCQADilAzgFuhtPi6wUvyTwSF-2FW1LGIgirU6Q5oEwZRUtZoXe-2FVKnJ1RYDfPm7nA-3D-3D)
- **Steel is tight and quiet.** Service-center inventories are the lowest since 2009, and mill order books stretch out as far as 18 weeks. [A Scrap Life](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgVksi2X-2BgkA3NYr6nPH4TyPDCyoRL2u8PMasb7yScDRShQbqjYgOI-2BaljfknugxhHTIDmhl6O5zL1H-2F9Oc15kWIceTN0lcUH2FJiuwIjOn5w-3D-3DhNQm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH4SqtOd1kLtWQG-2B01hxP9aQcB2uOn-2BAoGE4iSbIDmeqH5CM-2BMMNsd2PogTxbSJRzoW4rQ3LD0IMuShPVxL6HBxLgeJT1DLI5Mu4QKc2tHdo5XwW3zX73TTdg4I0hQE8gLQ-3D-3D)
- **Aluminum got one strong bull case; battery metals mostly went missing.** [Money of Mine](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FLAOgVc8t4jPZwSAoFRN1f41bX0f2ufYm-2BgG3ETTIEeopgX6CaN6ZHRYadYGsQj7HzoLJm1TUXUUXg9ieqYgB2Xohxv3HPQNFaKk2V8VhTg-3D-3Dzogq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH091UzhIdEJ0lZyFhvyrfxjTHCjYhDG5HIVfTkZLcVIb7NdzDTsMQ86OXy-2F8i-2B5VyX1zK2EtK9aN7ZEQBNxtJvb34RYqp7AiqdbaRlT9kSy6bzZdUEDNPQQoT9xSgRBFUg-3D-3D)

## What's new

### Copper: everyone is waiting on one document

The most important copper conversation this week wasn't about a mine, it was about a bureaucratic deadline that came and went. On J.P. Morgan's commodities podcast, base-metals researcher Greg Scheer explained that by June 30, the U.S. Commerce Department was supposed to hand the President a review of the domestic copper market under "Section 232", the trade law that lets the U.S. slap tariffs on imports for national-security reasons. As of the recording, nothing had been announced, and, importantly, there's no legal deadline forcing a response. "We're still waiting here collectively for any sort of announcement," Scheer said. [At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQu14RhHD6tfHRR9MEWWMqnFF7LLtfvhqYvbl4Ht-2FnGRxcF-2FRBhfJi24o6pzvwaZGbUqJ-2BI5eo7-2FuDhmJ-2BtIuX6Jo3VdK0I1hU11oAX6JYdQ-3D-3Du-d6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH4luLLEj6dRNFT6fO2vCFOYgYCzRbSy9M8SB3z3NApgA4nJ70ss-2FjbNVwqV9k6akHw0K2rQndvaSHvi-2FJ2-2BcHceRZHDZLERfxZTPKENJXmw8mBsOgzMJR4rFef-2FLSAvFDg-3D-3D)

Why does one memo matter so much? Because a big chunk of copper's rally is *tariff fear itself*. Scheer described a "tug of war between the U.S. and China for copper units." Globally there's actually plenty of refined copper to go around. But the threat of U.S. tariffs has pulled metal toward America ahead of any duty, which forces China (a net importer that still needs to buy copper) to bid higher to hold onto its share. That has "materially raised China's buying floor."

His framing, in his own words: "escalation is everything." If the tariff announcement is worded to keep raising the future tariff rate on refined copper, buyers keep rushing metal into the U.S. before the door closes, bullish. J.P. Morgan's base case is exactly that: "some sort of escalatory tariff scenario in the coming weeks," pushing copper (about $13,500 a ton this week) toward roughly **$15,000 a ton in the second half of 2026**, with the risk of an even sharper spike if inventories outside the U.S. run down fast. The flip side is the bearish scenario: if the market stops expecting escalation, the U.S. import window slams shut, America works through a long stretch of destocking, and pricing power reverts to China. Scheer noted the Chinese import math reopens around $13,200 a ton, a level the market briefly touched this week.

Underneath that macro drama, a parade of copper developers gave project updates that all rhymed: bigger deposits, and, thanks to today's high copper price, much better economics than their older studies assumed.

- **Surge Copper** laid out the numbers on its Berg project in British Columbia, one of Canada's top-three primary copper porphyry projects (a "porphyry" is the large, lower-grade deposit type that supplies most of the world's copper). At a long-term price of $4.75 a pound, the study showed an after-tax value (NPV) of **C$4.6 billion and a 24% return (IRR)**; run at this week's spot price of about $6.45 a pound, that jumps to **C$9.4 billion, a 36% IRR and a 1.8-year payback**. Total resource ~2.5 billion tons; 28-year mine life; C$4.7B build cost. [The KE Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhx58orvKqdg4Sr6U9n-2BFO4G2o3q6IsUqLAC9gVqwgQy3ju-2BOLni7aujc-2BHju-2FANM2KWrj-2BmqsAnc-2B1pr4RuUPlXTz4Ghc-2B4L8cusS8Yfim1g-3D-3DMIly_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH0t1a5VeeTyTczH3N49sKlN8PDPsh3mHYVzaKohTUMK80-2BdY812RFm67ZVCDQqgUmYu8G4avnQPucnbdWffGr8-2FgHm2tx2cRucLqu94DtYyPlCMx06Tglh49MhiVezvOpQ-3D-3D)
- **Lara Exploration's** Planalto project in Brazil has now had 30-plus holes and over 10,000m drilled since its last update, with core grades from 0.61% up past 1% copper. CEO Simon Ingram made the pricing point bluntly: the old study assumed $3/lb copper, versus roughly $4.20-$6 today, which lets them mine lower-grade rock profitably and reshapes the whole pit. [Mining Stock Education](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgqMpv3ZRC-2B0kS3iDa2k59oqfKXWUcMYIWwiygr12wwrKjd9lrJ7YKM6QU9d-2BrJnPUbkVn-2Bv2P6rwnhuQjzkKpKNwsSHShh8SR0PlQ5fU6wnw-3D-3D9GCO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH4E1DST3DgHXZID7CuoRQ8OIFDrDKSDGmAkpmswGCGR2cbR7LUCMurneE3yXinvbMQCHRbqqTj0fF-2FUwp-2BOwVM8JqkXJtieSKIoZcIx-2FvXCMpx9eRKaV3ZKJvfnftyjsTA-3D-3D)
- **Copper Giant** described Colombia as underexplored "elephant country", the Andes hold about half the world's copper and 12 of the 20 largest mines. Its Makoa project passed a billion tons of inferred resource, and CEO Ian Harris noted that near-surface, unowned deposits globally shrank from ~5 billion tons to ~2 billion this year as bigger players snapped them up. [Mining Stock Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2F1qal3otkfKE5dg1pRNs4qYzG9N0FFhJVUHv-2Fyclj-2Fwgufd-2BDVAp61MSB5FhAboDkLRFuiqS67vBIomxxuHEWWrd15eBTiHmY7UQRyIcFAA-3D-3DP_Uy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH4ImODCd7gUH7v9YXaHYyIpZtQJhYR0gyFzwikPI6PV15EyjpE6KfuAfxIkRWTU0zw4mtqAOd-2FXwIDpb4lntud82FbmhBe6bjC8LniSPpbjhxI5uKuL4VWDwcv83U65EnQ-3D-3D)
- **Regulus Resources** cleared a hurdle at AntaKori in Peru, a project sitting next to assets partly owned by Southern Copper, with a combined deposit of roughly 1.4-1.5 billion tons. CEO John Black's read on the market: "the copper market remains very robust… all the elements we need now for companies to make decisions to build new mines." [Mining Stock Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSFhIB97r88ToSseMu-2Fs7vDRxkQIIJLsWW7pZ0c441fjIfx8nFDjLwFp1WO1LQR-2BHwk-2BMgP6LVgBYXiMpf47prQPn7vuwzdoldZz-2BwcU-2BOCA-3D-3D84sQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH2p3-2BubWDn-2FFLaWDG4mZELja4ygun5G0RIg-2B1-2BrSLH2I3Gttk0XD7jMRDpfPwsNckVnY31OO0Uj0INySoh5sDGetCHnba-2BTshWqf5ge4ptSPS-2BwFSoktBKgHRycPfa1tyg-3D-3D)
- **Midnight Sun** in Zambia extended its Dumbwa deposit to 6.7 km of continuous mineralization; **Pacific Ridge** closed an $8.5M financing to drill what it calls BC's highest-grade porphyry copper-gold; and **Metals Exploration** floated a new Philippine copper-gold project it thinks could eventually make 130-140kt of copper-equivalent a year. [Mining Stock Education](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgc5leHb3hKdX93Fu-2Bf1XPxNONJBf5lHfDTK86kMzgYaE5fOF-2FqCg8VVqW4sEYFDvaxP2fq1bcOmqCdwg2k1Ws26uxQdn7jyL2qs1FjJ1wdLA-3D-3DEM9A_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH1m5jNciKRgx237I6wdWScV8t5mkQh7Oef2sGoR2qRZlLVS2muHna8MS5bRkKpUW6cTat8Ty-2BNx-2Fc1O-2Fj-2B-2FikJEN2A6IxryA3wNYccVLaeT-2FCUnprC-2B5DqS7br3p9vdkuA-3D-3D) · [Company Interviews (Pacific Ridge)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3WIW-2FRPPe9TD-2B1nXIF8Dqqb5kiMQ-2FRfGiAHxEuM9R931N0vGNYE3ldZLqWvoGoTkqZTtrKtTTQ4Ms6MzVuSp7BNrH7Tvjp6fKO-2F-2Bh3GLSmQ-3D-3DkmQf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHwsLtAjeF6D2DLMigEF3u0R2QWInKA3saNAIvyM-2F8KfRgiqTDwFyiRor8jc-2BThWQv3vnG5oLwYLpqH80uhiG5cxL-2FlHkUDIjn6RWM4dnd4injSzkVODoeqZq60D6tfk-2FwA-3D-3D) · [Company Interviews (Metals Exploration)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2Fov-2BOZt5oHZgRoeRq4lbItiw5mNqVS8Wy3z6u0BTknnHN5EcVSAVQJ6z2gazd84uj9-2FxMrUMqlDnNHlYwDpuoDrzEtGafJr6gjuONuQOiIg-3D-3DpQpG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHyP4GaX-2BUJPiyAvYkwZqzCWsihWwi8kCxYwSEjSR1t8vqFOd5OaDpbs7Hml4XpTa27Wvd04wf3eaFOYvgUBdSmiRnmQS82X9CR7enq13tsG4T6cNr3U-2B8PxepXKdlEhiOQ-3D-3D)

### Fertilizer: prices won't come down, and now the government is asking why

If you only read one section this week, make it this one, three separate farm podcasts converged on the same explosive story.

First, the raw prices. On AG Bull's weekly update, Davis Michaelsen walked through USDA retail fertilizer figures (an average of Iowa and Illinois): **anhydrous ammonia at $1,071.35 a short ton, up 36.6% from a year ago; urea $753.63 (+25%); UAN28 liquid nitrogen +30%; DAP phosphate $880 (+13.7%); MAP $912.50 (+12.7%); potash $494.98 (+5.6%).** Farm diesel is a full dollar higher than a year ago at $3.75 a gallon. He rolls these into a "retail fertilizer price index" of **$1,087.51, up almost 20% year-on-year, against expected new-crop corn revenue of just $748.80 an acre, which is *down* 5.5%.** In plain terms: the cost of feeding the crop is climbing while the value of the crop is falling. Michaelsen, who has tracked these prices since 2012, offered a cautious hope that fertilizer is near "the top of a fertilizer price cycle, headed for better days", but wouldn't bet on it, citing European gas, the Moroccan duties, Russia, the Strait of Hormuz, and Brazilian competition all pushing the same direction. [AG Bull](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjioioAi9esDk0gbGTwraRSPsBMr9P5onskp9-2FqZx2Twp93zLhRttIDEcryOlaJRka1uTGB3N-2BXRmIdC2uCNf3hxPn5mQUNBwOTa9iCOOpc3Q-3D-3DasKO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHyWWh0FkQwG0eyLTE3Qx7OqYQtxVtvHPrXBg4zi32xlEFobRsIhcNADhJH5mqVhsSH2Hj2lzwI0-2BuJ-2FLwjwAa4Jd1YN5UsFBXULMktayzk-2BCXpYNLkdrNANKK-2Fp2B-2FFHlQ-3D-3D)

One piece of near-term relief: President Trump declared an emergency and temporarily suspended anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate for up to eight months, ahead of spring planting. (A "countervailing duty" is just a tax on an import, in this case one that has been keeping cheaper foreign phosphate out.)

But, and this is the heart of it, Ohio Corn & Wheat's "Kernels" podcast made clear that the executive order is a band-aid, not a cure. The 2021 duty case is still alive, and **Mosaic and Simplot are actually pushing to keep the duty in place and *raise* the Moroccan rate from about 16.6% to just over 20%.** Farmers on the episode described the consequences in human terms. Clinton County farmer John Settlemyer recounted how, in February 2023, three Ohio River fertilizer terminals ran out of high-grade MAP phosphate in the same week, forcing him onto a weaker, costlier substitute: "So they were basically controlling the price and controlling the supply." His broader charge: fertilizer prices are up 150% in ten years for "the same product… the mines haven't changed," and American farmers pay "$150 to $200 a ton more… than that same U.S. company exports phosphate to South America in the off season." [Kernels with Ohio Corn & Wheat](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgeka-2Femd13StLAt7l-2FVQEGdFGxuNKEbJoHhbv29pF61cOjLOEu8ikn-2Fd0xNnurciU98No-2B73Ru0vg-2BQNq2khXrSbboxG7JkHQZO9BiDtXYZQ-3D-3DZDj8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH9UqlyNrQpLK9Gak-2B-2F0VZOT13G4jPD5yQkK8dvQIdgDJrIiKTYodP-2Fu-2FkBFgDWeb72FQ3SOsUtKFyVl4EhH4gyn-2FF-2Fr76x2GgEQeclamscZCxDcuyHXH2Vgn4BfaC3qYXQ-3D-3D)

The "Grain Markets and Other Stuff" podcast then put hard numbers on the same wound, citing a new National Corn Growers Association / Kinetic study comparing 2023-2025 U.S. and Brazilian input costs. The gaps are eye-watering: **U.S. corn seed 68% more expensive than Brazil, corn fungicides +120%, herbicides +119%, insecticides +87%; soybean fungicides a startling +133%.** Host Joe Vaclavik was fair about the caveats (Brazil yields far less corn per acre and leans on cheaper generic chemicals) but the mechanism he zeroed in on is the same countervailing-duty tool: a U.S. producer petitions for a duty on a cheap import, the import becomes uncompetitive, and farmers are funneled toward the pricier branded domestic product. He tied it to phosphate, the herbicide 2,4-D, and now glyphosate (Bayer has petitioned for new duties on Chinese glyphosate). [Grain Markets and Other Stuff](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5Se0VSgsyjEt7DsytvK8Py8NpoeS-2Fh-2FkFrWvZWG2J9ZmDdskTLFKhc7nCNoeCfALbuc51gfBPd8Z78x4FHdMk1WewtllzG4U4K3QjohiYAA-3D-3DyAix_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH8lIfTG6Mk0C3dTBypEwsC-2FIHtKgP4Oce5Qqu8PNjZBfzjnRK6KLzSgk9p-2FIi-2B4h1GBjtskqEYrbSy79WbN3NbHlkGaB60NB0m0a1itXvHD8s-2B5hRlbIZtDsP-2Fucu3CDpQ-3D-3D)

The regulators are now moving. A **DOJ criminal antitrust probe opened in March and expanded on July 1** is examining possible price collusion among the major nutrient and crop-input companies, including Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries and Yara, among others. USDA's Stephen Vaden has flatly called Nutrien and Mosaic a "duopoly." And FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson, after a Texas forum with 100-plus farmers from 18 states, pledged an investigation and opened an anonymous tip line (fertilizercomplaints@ftc.gov), telling growers: "If we find that anyone has broken the antitrust laws and victimized our farmers… I will not hesitate to act."

For anyone who owns the fertilizer names, this is the story to watch: the same market concentration that supports pricing power is now the thing drawing legal fire.

### Rare earths and critical minerals: governments open their wallets

The rare-earth theme this week was less about mines and more about state balance sheets stepping in.

Canada made the boldest move. On The Canadian Investor, the hosts detailed Ottawa's first deal under its new "critical minerals accelerator": a strategic investment of **up to $400 million (via the Canada Growth Fund) into Teck Resources' Trail smelter in BC**, one of the world's largest integrated polymetallic smelting and refining complexes, which produces minerals used in defense and semiconductors. Crucially, the deal gives the federal government rights over some future critical-mineral production, a way of locking in supply. The hosts put it in a wider frame: "you're seeing more and more governments trying to get some stakes… and secure those critical resources," noting U.S. stakes in names like Trilogy Metals and Lithium Americas, and predicting "it's going to be the first of quite a few." [The Canadian Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjBtTQvzt0dxSYApxqQVT2wXf0tOn4KIoend33QXeT-2FD8XAD3hRk4XBtnkiNgr4SlOHY-2FWcpA32ZsztZblagOdvKxl9yMM29e7reCrcEnblZw-3D-3Dl_dk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHziAkLES79eYOMJHgrFbnwnUwwvLVDy8wZ-2FbJGidmsgTBK-2BbrjkpmqrtuuD5lOqu1jtCdqYB2uk-2BAE16K-2BNGaW-2F9Qq84R4FRtgAWLVEwnWRKoeTDcV9hlvjoqcQjmFMBiQ-3D-3D)

The most thought-provoking episode came from retired U.S. Army General Charles Flynn on The Northern Miner. His argument: China cut rare-earth exports to Japan starting late last year, "threw all kinds of levers on Japan and created a big problem," and the U.S. is dangerously exposed because it "still ha[s] to send 90% of it overseas to get processed", capacity that "atrophied… and it's actually consolidated in China." His sharpest critique is aimed at U.S. policy itself: Washington keeps funding a few big names (he cited MP Materials and USA Rare Earths as the mining equivalent of defense "primes" like Boeing and Lockheed) while neglecting the junior miners, the service providers, and the workforce that make an actual supply chain work. He warned that **about 50% of the U.S. mining workforce will be past retirement age by 2029.** [The Northern Miner Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxGCzKHtFlztHrUIWcHTL-2B-2BSp5-2BwaK7G8Svhu0Rdf2FB21Ovo9rr670-2FFc154444k1-2F97sdoDa1Jyo5mKvWwjAD-2FT7F8KcDp334-2FppAWojNQ-3D-3DpgaA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHxEgHo42Exk9VLAnplJHsYJfeIN5I0fz8Is4FNj1av-2FaOyqeOnZdd7-2BYI5jNchB1r8VLNMpssxsmKcHB7rp1pHFUtdrzEHi-2BrXfd1simg90PEtxFbwI0od-2F1XSvxCNwtrQ-3D-3D)

Flynn told a story that captures the whole problem. Visiting a company that makes magnets (the kind that go in an F-35 or a precision munition, "not… on your refrigerator") he asked the CEO which of the five "mason jars" of material along the process he actually owned the raw input for. The answer: only the later ones. The first two jars (the processing) "comes to me" from abroad. His fix is a "mine-forward" model: sign agreements with junior miners at the raw-material stage and work forward, rather than the government's habit of buying only finished products. He even floated using U.S. Army bases and National Guard armories in all 50 states for small, modular processing plants.

A separate discussion on Hub Podcasts reinforced the geopolitics: China "dominates" the processed rare-earth and magnet chain and has shown a "demonstrated willingness" to weaponize it. The U.S. Development Finance Corporation now has investment authority north of $200 billion and can take direct equity stakes in mining and processing projects abroad. Alberta Premier Daniel Smith named the core obstacle: China's "market-flooding strategy", undercut any new processor until "it craters the business case", which is why allies are talking about price floors and long-term contracts. [Hub Podcasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgsGwmedrx6jY5NhzjyDaR0UEiKlERl5WlwXAe3zzsuk6ksjj3sHmwMFID-2BU0jHDeMnEbs739w4u7AX-2BTAXNzthhGG1s91lhA9zMUAVb9xvdw-3D-3DgIyJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH2R0XvZtBIS-2F4oHTVs3jnmJndmxvnEFJUaOa-2FBnM0VsTDm-2Fgi6v1FHhzXuRS9b8Wf7EvaMS2X40KZKX3UcJOYNX-2BPL7Pnb8oz8PhBEtdsHMts2ple-2By1bgRzXp-2FvTnsN7g-3D-3D)

On the project side, **Mont Royal Resources** delivered a study for its Ashram rare-earth project in Quebec: a **C$2 billion after-tax value, 22% return, and a headline all-in cost of about $80.50/kg** against a current basket value of $45-46/kg, plus a 120-year mine life using just a quarter of the resource. It's a reminder that many Western rare-earth projects still need higher prices (or government help) to clear. [Company Interviews](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgUCmripi52opyYJk9xCwg-2BPeFdVDJ40939bD2gCb3fB1sXlDFbKbGSOZPQsKAHexHNq-2Bl698yI-2BwZqcTVa-2F-2BSmz7-2BYN2Q74atd2tbmaAC2fQ-3D-3Dq1BO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH2cs0uJJLP0LHiUnxB2riuUG7dotsp7DdI-2FsbW-2FheWp84t5QYEYDlfMQcai2jgPkxHpxlTVuSKTl0RBpW1oscXr8EXVvtqg6JF3DmsK50tFvf7OSb9d1Ihq-2B0-2B9-2FTisldA-3D-3D)

### Steel: the tightest it's been in years, with barely a headline

The lone substantive steel discussion, on the scrap-industry podcast A Scrap Life, painted a picture of surprising tightness. **U.S. steel service-center inventory is around 3 million tons, the lowest since 2009**, and buyers who spent the first half of the year in "wait and see" mode are running out of cushion. Mill lead times (how long you wait for an order) tell the story: hot-rolled coil at **7.7 weeks** (anything over six is a "buy everything" signal in the scrap world), plate mills at **12 weeks**, and beam mills stretching toward **18 weeks**. [A Scrap Life](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgVksi2X-2BgkA3NYr6nPH4TyPDCyoRL2u8PMasb7yScDRShQbqjYgOI-2BaljfknugxhHTIDmhl6O5zL1H-2F9Oc15kWIceTN0lcUH2FJiuwIjOn5w-3D-3DpHOm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH-2FPT6rAQZCYtaCfI3w77tRiwiUc6pK9R1xbPyYKsCb8oBQhchVhm3AQb0h-2Fcz4BfaivsvYJQub3KXzTOHdMKPlNy2nCqJDdz922idUXiNPCwXxz-2BrYtKOmJ9a499ye0jaA-3D-3D)

The demand, they said, is real and domestic (data centers, autos (June auto sales were the highest of 2026 so far), construction and infrastructure) and it's happening while the rest of the world is weak (Chinese hot-rolled coil is below $600 a ton, well under U.S. levels). On the supply side, Cleveland-Cliffs has idled its Dearborn, Michigan blast furnace, and Brazilian pig iron (a key steelmaking input) now faces a combined 37.5% tariff. Their bottom line was bullish: with tariffs, strong demand, 15-year inventory lows, pending mill labor negotiations, and a Defense Department budget rising toward $1.3-1.4 trillion, one host said pricing could "go wild."

### Battery metals: the dog that didn't bark

Here's an honest gap: across the trailing week, no podcast delivered a substantive, market-focused discussion of lithium, nickel, cobalt or graphite as a standalone story, no Albemarle deep-dive, no direct-lithium-extraction market call, no Chinese-oversupply debate. A few episodes touched batteries (fire safety, EV battery life, storage for data centers) but on technology, not metals supply and demand. The one exception came inside a broader mining episode (more on that below).

## The debate

**Is copper a policy trade or a supply story?** This is the week's cleanest disagreement. J.P. Morgan frames the near term as almost entirely about policy, the tariff wording will set the price, and their models even lay out a bearish path where China wins back pricing power ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQu14RhHD6tfHRR9MEWWMqnFF7LLtfvhqYvbl4Ht-2FnGRxcF-2FRBhfJi24o6pzvwaZGbUqJ-2BI5eo7-2FuDhmJ-2BtIuX6Jo3VdK0I1hU11oAX6JYdQ-3D-3DLyk6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHyrN4eDZ09t-2Bww6-2B4IPTDfCTo1Myg00ZSKwmFl2ifFpyEftxoHKNec8Wag752NCtTUcwDV1gTRe7SE6iNQGsA18UJWrAis9oSRvpdSkd9a-2Fv0Fc-2FZGbBlqW9os0dfuLjPQ-3D-3D)). Tavi Costa is on the other end: he barely mentions tariffs and instead argues copper is early in a multi-year structural bull market driven by supply constraints and demand, comparing it to silver "at $40" before a much larger move, and adding that copper miners have already been "priced much better than the gold space" relative to their metal ([Palisades Gold Radio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjuv9Y0JVlHS3-2B9MSaOsW14Ipy3DRQBs2aG9Hp0-2FEX1v8iQJOrvRco66Hl3-2BQ9NZbvu9UDROzyIFPzMg4Rqw4I5vNyW-2B4rUrHRJ6z3S0dozFw-3D-3DLstC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH8-2BzPgX29P9i-2BRWtEUHs9CJDkfRhN13tQFfopqPswQF-2FvPsD-2B1iXb0pReoBvakJ2wBj-2BzFcqN36Gif0OzuXa1Lo-2BrKhEPKYs4TocFpBEwlr0-2Bb7fAl5WUqhdIgnlE7ROXA-3D-3D)). The developers echo Costa in practice, every project study this week was rebuilt on higher long-term copper assumptions. The tension for an investor: even if Costa is right long-term, J.P. Morgan's "no-escalation" scenario shows how a single announcement could trigger a sharp, near-term drawdown first.

**Fertilizer: cartel or just a hard business?** The farm podcasts are unambiguous, they see market concentration and duty-shopping as the cause of high prices, and they now have DOJ and FTC investigations on their side ([Grain Markets](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5Se0VSgsyjEt7DsytvK8Py8NpoeS-2Fh-2FkFrWvZWG2J9ZmDdskTLFKhc7nCNoeCfALbuc51gfBPd8Z78x4FHdMk1WewtllzG4U4K3QjohiYAA-3D-3D22ox_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHwcnCdN2CWJ-2FHO4psHKPphhWEKUwtE-2FFwjNlTTPFFM1KwnvZJhSHhrW0bqVXbFZL0aDpTLOQG0mkI1PQHJtRVENH1XUhFoUdJNUPjupWCpN6hLxUlJNMC0f4Mq7TYFJ-2B9g-3D-3D), [Kernels](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgeka-2Femd13StLAt7l-2FVQEGdFGxuNKEbJoHhbv29pF61cOjLOEu8ikn-2Fd0xNnurciU98No-2B73Ru0vg-2BQNq2khXrSbboxG7JkHQZO9BiDtXYZQ-3D-3Deypi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH1PvLrCb2KOLHyaMrggloZy4YaF48O-2BShSq8hFZQE6Mg4Y5Y-2F-2B8CTnaIj-2F9Xz-2B-2FGQ6088uiTL3B08M3qCiDWVyNbmslgOUiYY-2BGg1DnkzGOchOtzoU4hCHu-2F-2BSWZlAqV8Q-3D-3D)). But listen carefully and the fairer voices concede real complications: phosphate is a mined, finite resource; new domestic nitrogen plants take years and enormous capital to build; and Brazil's cheaper inputs partly reflect looser generic-approval rules and different crops, not pure gouging ([AG Bull](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjioioAi9esDk0gbGTwraRSPsBMr9P5onskp9-2FqZx2Twp93zLhRttIDEcryOlaJRka1uTGB3N-2BXRmIdC2uCNf3hxPn5mQUNBwOTa9iCOOpc3Q-3D-3DNtVJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwHwHioRLluGT4JW2RDmfaMPgrNg9FRvGWyeinZ51G0goht2Bxm11W5Jr6wwAxgoWuSwgbV9laPAPw95RFVp8mB-2BIpZ0n35B-2Fh4DuPh7x4ewKjrdjIkvsSML4IVWZwgv-2B8Ww-3D-3D)). The investigations will have to separate genuine pricing power from the ordinary economics of a concentrated, capital-heavy industry, and that distinction is exactly what's at stake for the stocks.

## The names in play

**Copper.** Southern Copper (referenced via the AntaKori joint venture), Freeport (cited as the earn-in partner behind a BC discovery re-rating), plus a deep bench of developers: Surge Copper (Berg, BC), Lara Exploration (Planalto, Brazil), Copper Giant (Makoa, Colombia), Regulus Resources (AntaKori, Peru), Midnight Sun (Dumbwa, Zambia), Pacific Ridge (BC), Metals Exploration (Philippines).

**Rare earths / critical minerals.** Teck Resources (Canada's $400M Trail smelter investment); MP Materials and USA Rare Earths (named as the over-funded "primes"); Lynas (its South Korea magnet-factory partnership was cited); Mont Royal Resources (Ashram PEA); and, as government-stake precedents, Trilogy Metals and Lithium Americas.

**Steel.** Cleveland-Cliffs (idled its Dearborn blast furnace) and Nucor (its cold-rolled index was cited as holding steady).

**Aluminum & lithium, from one episode.** On Money of Mine, small-cap investor Matt Griffin made this week's clearest metals bull case, on **aluminum**: demand growing 3-4% a year (electrification, EVs, substitution away from copper) against a supply side capped by China's 45-million-tonne production ceiling, "structurally bullish… these high prices can persist." He likes **Alcoa** and, against the market, which sent the stock down ~9% on the news, defended Alcoa's acquisition of South32's aluminum operations as "a pretty good deal" with "logical synergies" in Western Australia, flagging only a South African power-contract question in 2032. He's also bullish on **lithium** demand over a 12-18 month view despite near-term oversupply, citing China's plan to electrify 40% of its heavy-duty truck fleet by 2030 (with trucks already hitting 1,300 km range and five-minute battery swaps). [Money of Mine](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FLAOgVc8t4jPZwSAoFRN1f41bX0f2ufYm-2BgG3ETTIEeopgX6CaN6ZHRYadYGsQj7HzoLJm1TUXUUXg9ieqYgB2Xohxv3HPQNFaKk2V8VhTg-3D-3DM5nn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH7eW7LsvgVjdWly-2BToKbIY8xNC7g5z-2BMGF9HueaCVny33rDg-2F5vBACxedQlTWS-2FyVCQnaX2juVkHdFi3WqiBAUrK1BxR-2FRb0NiCJ5OG-2B4wHQUyAkCWWBTlxZ3CAadi0aZw-3D-3D)

**Fertilizer / ag inputs.** Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries and Yara (named in the DOJ probe); Mosaic and Simplot (pushing to keep and raise the Moroccan phosphate duty); Bayer (petitioning for new glyphosate duties on China); and OCP/Morocco as the phosphate supplier at the center of the duty fight.

## Read-throughs

- **Copper's tariff cliffhanger is a two-sided risk, not a one-way bet.** The most useful takeaway from J.P. Morgan isn't the $15,000 target, it's that a *non-escalatory* announcement, even one that imposes a tariff immediately, could be bearish for global (LME) prices by closing the U.S. import window. Position for the event, not just the direction. [At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQu14RhHD6tfHRR9MEWWMqnFF7LLtfvhqYvbl4Ht-2FnGRxcF-2FRBhfJi24o6pzvwaZGbUqJ-2BI5eo7-2FuDhmJ-2BtIuX6Jo3VdK0I1hU11oAX6JYdQ-3D-3DCZ0v_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH6AT3Mcc-2FbDZx6yjmSAl1YHBFnpMVQNcaSa0xq3YjVaciCu-2BaA9rlLyeY3OB4yufG16A8xF7MuXlWsRxfIkgnNN0RQt0hpHsSdvSwe2j-2FMUHiS8zsdq6VDlMtRA6S4BuVw-3D-3D)
- **High copper prices are quietly enlarging the future supply pipeline.** Every developer this week is re-running economics on higher prices, which turns previously uneconomic, lower-grade tons into mineable ore. That's bullish for the developers now, but it's the mechanism by which today's high prices seed tomorrow's supply.
- **The fertilizer margin squeeze is a demand headwind for inputs.** With the cost of growing corn up ~20% and expected revenue down, farmers are openly "robbing Peter to pay Paul", cutting back, delaying applications, mining their own soil nutrients. That behavior eventually shows up as softer volumes for the very producers under antitrust scrutiny. [AG Bull](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjioioAi9esDk0gbGTwraRSPsBMr9P5onskp9-2FqZx2Twp93zLhRttIDEcryOlaJRka1uTGB3N-2BXRmIdC2uCNf3hxPn5mQUNBwOTa9iCOOpc3Q-3D-3DLbQl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH2U438DCNbsUI-2BmcNFH31SdYla5Rd7uIK-2FeSvBx5P9Dd54FS-2B0T7V3MNw9YXRg4WmX1VoLB0zQCyCKPzaeHAAvIC6vh4WMw58R0kbP-2FJRFgGZ5cg8eiDd9KhyN8lcoQfUg-3D-3D)
- **"Government as buyer" is becoming a structural theme across critical minerals.** Canada's Teck stake, the U.S. DFC's $200B+ mandate, and prior U.S. equity stakes all point the same way: where China's flood-the-market strategy makes private economics unworkable, the West is increasingly using public balance sheets and price floors. That reshapes which junior miners get funded, and Gen. Flynn's warning is that the money is flowing to the wrong (finished-product) end of the chain. [The Canadian Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjBtTQvzt0dxSYApxqQVT2wXf0tOn4KIoend33QXeT-2FD8XAD3hRk4XBtnkiNgr4SlOHY-2FWcpA32ZsztZblagOdvKxl9yMM29e7reCrcEnblZw-3D-3DMkSb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH8nKcUWO06-2FWIC2vDzXU-2Fj3lKu0-2F3KYm-2BdxKh56TPOhUp9uoUtAazP0vGy08PkLU06At6FVTzROZ-2FdeJw9qJMHiDX1UmWc0XDQc-2BANbJaLIJBoDl2aL05StqHGfckjkY6g-3D-3D) · [The Northern Miner Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxGCzKHtFlztHrUIWcHTL-2B-2BSp5-2BwaK7G8Svhu0Rdf2FB21Ovo9rr670-2FFc154444k1-2F97sdoDa1Jyo5mKvWwjAD-2FT7F8KcDp334-2FppAWojNQ-3D-3DaL5A_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH2BuSsZQFxns-2BJLNA2CVLI-2Bc-2F8e83z9Sc0Mmms1Bs4NkNLxNLNiNGmjmPI3kw4U-2BrPr6EUANhDTEyjqqtJmWyjoiCqYf4WKHrJTLlt-2FmYp0VJeGOUwKxAPkLbG1NB0RaqQ-3D-3D)
- **U.S. steel is a domestic-demand story insulated from a weak world.** With inventories at 2009 lows, long lead times, tariffs on imported inputs, and data-center/defense demand, the setup favors U.S. mills, even as Chinese coil trades below $600. [A Scrap Life](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgVksi2X-2BgkA3NYr6nPH4TyPDCyoRL2u8PMasb7yScDRShQbqjYgOI-2BaljfknugxhHTIDmhl6O5zL1H-2F9Oc15kWIceTN0lcUH2FJiuwIjOn5w-3D-3D7cji_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUxtXS-2FXlA-2FzjkSNazUSfDcziYgKkTTJr0KGaB-2FaeMwH4HW93zdRI7FlRDTbUqd4ADc5or3zdSjL2yUYtiE6KXPkYWS95MHH5rAAudgrfrIidVz8G6ZsEzYcbq3cKJXplYZgvuTEc-2B-2FdF-2BLW-2BeqU6sWvZDTwnLe18H4ib-2BwgC4v0w-3D-3D)

## What changed

- **Copper:** the story shifted from "grind higher" to "binary event risk", the market is now openly pricing the delayed Section 232 decision as the swing factor for 2H 2026. (Last week's copper coverage was more about individual names and price levels; this week a bulge-bracket bank put explicit up/down scenarios on the table.)
- **Fertilizer:** escalated from a pricing complaint to an active legal front, the DOJ probe was expanded on July 1, the FTC opened a tip line, and Mosaic/Simplot are on record trying to *raise* the Moroccan duty even after the President's temporary suspension.
- **Rare earths:** moved from talk to money, Canada's first-of-its-kind $400M Teck investment is a concrete instance of the "government-as-buyer" model the theme has been circling for months.
- **Battery metals:** went dark as a standalone topic this week. Worth flagging so a quiet week isn't mistaken for a settled market.
- **Aluminum:** got its first clear bull case in a while (China's 45Mt cap + steady demand), attached to a contested M&A deal (Alcoa/South32) the market disliked but at least one investor defended.

---

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