# Meta's 33% Ad Growth Is the Number Nobody Believes - Digital Ads & Retail Media Weekly - Week of July 12, 2026

> Digital advertising and retail media newsletter for the week of July 12, 2026. Meta is compounding ad revenue 33% on a $55 billion quarterly base yet the stock keeps sliding on its capex bill, Walmart's ad business passed $6.4 billion and rebranded into a global Connect umbrella, and a brand-new category of ads inside chatbots is being built in real time.

## Digital Ads & Retail Media Weekly

### Week of July 12, 2026: Meta's 33% Ad Growth Is the Number Nobody Believes

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## TL;DR

- **Meta is growing its ad business 33% a year on a $55 billion quarterly base, faster than Google Search (19%) and Amazon (24%), yet the stock keeps sliding because investors are transfixed by its $60-80 billion capex bill.** The whole bull/bear fight this week was about whether that spending pays off.
- **Retail media had a loud week.** Walmart's ad business hit nearly $6.4 billion for its fiscal year and is now growing faster than Amazon's; its US "Walmart Connect" arm grew 44%. Walmart rebranded its whole ad operation into one global "Connect" umbrella.
- **The AI-search ad land grab is real.** OpenAI is making a "full court press" on advertising, poaching Meta ad executives, and Google is now widely expected to put ads inside Gemini despite earlier denials. A brand-new category, ads inside chatbots, is being built in real time.

## What's new

**1. Meta's growth number is spectacular, and nobody believes it.** On [TBPN](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgFKdCtr2JFmf9ZOoBWTv3vrd8l-2BfSC-2FQLqrnGbWNlwT7kn1eCiDe-2BrBkZIC1Uu6HWI5YTNZ7qIE8R-2FDISUcbyGLvBj35y9MkvGxwDSGG2HJw-3D-3DLcLk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMiT7siFTzpE-2BYsLDXioUuA9hy3dvx9EpKTIsl16-2FSQxeSIumF60VshsKaP-2BJ6GHfJ6ie9E-2F1JcMd9vWN04w4CItF7Zj0hAmJQDKqhLNQJF4t-2BtB-2FbyR3tcUl6GiI2G7ivQ-3D-3D) (July 9), ad-tech analyst Eric Seufert laid out the figure that framed the entire week: "33% advertising revenue growth last quarter on $55 billion in revenue... Google search was 19%. Amazon, which is much smaller, is 24%. They're outgrowing everyone except for AppLovin and Reddit. And people don't believe it." Seufert said he sat with hedge-fund clients who told him it would take *40%* growth to convince them Meta's AI spending is actually working. Why it matters: the market has essentially stopped rewarding Meta for the best growth number in big-cap tech, so the debate has moved entirely to the cost side.

**2. The bull case, spelled out by a real money manager.** On [Pitch The PM](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiz-2FwLrZ2bH6AgzSxRaFy6nyXwxIlMiI2pLRbjROVfBBR4HrvpedeoYhGbjuRWVSv-2B-2FwEnammR-2F6BGdTZTak8tzttRrhNgxdVVi-2B3BZHOwPJw-3D-3DaSyg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMjQ23jeW3qTOU3C4NtyW0kVUSMPUeG5CH9x1epwOuf6v-2BBodzVDZMs-2FjU4Gpj25QYgxzkADAywsm0diO0GoA8eUj3e1BeLotGyIbvZzq7-2FDUaRipKon090MFrKvijfShUA-3D-3D) (July 9), Avory CIO Sean Emory called Meta "the second fastest growing behind NVIDIA" with "the highest gross margin of all of them" in the Magnificent 7. His key insight into why the stock is stuck: Meta shares now have "90% correlation to 2027 free cash flow revisions, which have essentially gotten to zero, maybe a little negative", because Zuckerberg is plowing $60-80 billion a year into AI infrastructure, a bet Emory called "bigger than metaverse." He thinks capex eventually "plateaus around 165 billion" a year or two out. Why it matters: this reframes Meta from an earnings story into a cash-flow story, and tells you exactly what would un-stick the stock, a signal that spending is topping out.

**3. Walmart's ad machine passed a milestone.** On [The Information's TITV](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOij-2FjR-2BhXF-2FC5jO3dbPYIlCMPL1NKRdI-2B7R43PJEreiKvv805SzMXJeV2-2BMpUVyN7I823jmhxoCCDyeTBCgzUC-2Fs5yS-2Bpu0wSP-2Fivgn64PDMg-3D-3Dk4hv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMq6b-2BZYcABzTIMJzeiRzxyWAWB4tQ3A6ow7V5Qijjx4Mjqn7cQyRlsAwb2GzMAVLBvWmwy9igNiMFycznkMosE4ALxc6h1cgnyaJRO1v87r3jQpkC2DDtzxZW4vxexYhww-3D-3D) (July 7), reporter Catherine Perloff said Walmart's advertising business "brought in nearly $6.4 billion in fiscal year 2026, outpacing social media platforms like Snap and Pinterest." Walmart has been buying its way deeper into TV advertising, snapping up Vizio (to turn its TV operating system into an ad surface) and, just weeks ago, Vibe (which helps small businesses buy TV ads). Why it matters: retail media used to be a sleepy shelf-promotion business; Walmart is turning it into a high-margin media company that competes with Amazon for the same ad dollars.

**4. OpenAI is coming for the ad market, and hiring Meta's people to do it.** On [Marketecture](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjc25Txf-2BAp4IaTNc2gjSWkNfnwmqZ76dKZ-2BAO0PKE0hn47ST816ZLCNRJOI30xQpN95eaqdohvCTKnn54-2Fhl52vYPIza3UvaOdd5eSkEEMag-3D-3DPAR9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMlwVoqT6bgYtOs-2BRMCnQhAbphNMti-2Bw-2B9lpDou6fBxNpudvoSXHw9HpG1JrslnWnc5yZuAIIPcqNSQnANWQNnCl4KQ8Q1sRo0ypJB7rbc6sWewkkQIqMdexiMKPMx02TZw-3D-3D) (July 10), journalist Alex Kantrowitz described OpenAI's "full court press on advertising," including newly announced user uploads and audience matching. His most striking detail: "There is this march of Meta executives to OpenAI", something he said has happened "maybe 10 times over the past year." He also broke the news that Google's Demis Hassabis takes a "for now" line on ads in Gemini, which Kantrowitz reads as a clear tell that they're coming: "I wouldn't bet against Google. But Google will do it. Facebook will do it. But Anthropic doesn't need to." Why it matters: a billion ChatGPT users is a new ad platform being born, and the walled gardens' talent is helping build it.

**5. Retail-media measurement finally got a real report card.** On [The CPG Guys](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhVUCw87ZGn6WsSSps-2BVan0sepda5bOOIlmKaPJSxc4-2BLeeE4cuj9geDKifOLBHJpPI0PrRsemxiT65WE0hqETv21qKDkRxpPcc2iwTr4KUpQ-3D-3DvcbR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMie5ERA8EnKJNFfrQ35mrwWnT83QVHW3C-2BwYX0FOc0Wo97IIxRsjLefMjQNTWyUgkWee-2FhqIRfZBNGycaSdIcR5m4T5BjO3YHyieUNLrfYNv9lsYgmP9PvxKtRZV0C-2Fyrw-3D-3D) (July 11), Ibotta CRO Chris Riedy and Circana's Yeimy Garcia Smith unveiled a joint study of 48 campaigns showing "16.5% average sales lift, 17% increase in household penetration," with results that beat total-store media benchmarks "by up to eight X." The bigger theme: every ad platform "claims a 10 to one return" while grading its own homework, and marketers are drowning in numbers they can't compare. Why it matters: the entire retail-media boom rests on advertisers trusting the measurement. Independent, apples-to-apples proof is the thing that keeps budgets flowing.

## The debate

**Bull: AI is widening the moat and retail media is minting a new profit pool.**

The optimists' case is that AI is turning the walled gardens into even better ad machines. Seufert's argument on [TBPN](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgFKdCtr2JFmf9ZOoBWTv3vrd8l-2BfSC-2FQLqrnGbWNlwT7kn1eCiDe-2BrBkZIC1Uu6HWI5YTNZ7qIE8R-2FDISUcbyGLvBj35y9MkvGxwDSGG2HJw-3D-3DFPZG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMknhjla7yd7n3EXYkRvdH-2B7tyStCXYK4E5p24ZcYVq5ubxC-2FRZGt12iThst2eqSBxYGWuUFnAZA049ASy5sQs95C95opkcJ3rfnoxCJunquNLo-2B5wPt-2Bm-2Fy24t1N8zI9qQ-3D-3D) is that Meta has something no rival has: an image-generation model "trained, not fine-tuned... on our own data," fed by the outcome signals (what a shopper actually does after clicking) that only Meta sees at scale through its Pixel and conversion tools. If Meta can point at an ad and say "this only exists because we trained on data no one else has," the growth becomes defensible. And there's a simple unlock underneath it: advertisers keep saying their real bottleneck is "great creative." Solve that with AI, and the only ceiling on spending becomes how much money the advertiser has. Meanwhile, retail media is bolting software-like margins onto thin retail businesses, Walmart's ad and membership lines are "growing several times faster than the stores underneath them," as Rick Watson put it on [The Watson Weekly](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOioJYKhVqUTNfapGfYcLpgAF-2FWSXO632YF08i96Hfo4rRRwRp9GzATZrYGfjC-2BgeK1cMSw-2Bu6Ysz1ScG-2FJW3d6wsRFjYLqx-2BdcBTO28LToviQ-3D-3DTtw6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMtvKxWqQT05cPaaaUFFVEoFXqB4gHUYvB8hKv7i4tZtNG3jXWL6D-2FXN5kzXMr2yysgCBR-2B0IFqZj94b001hO2zyryR7uX-2BqGqrm96s2R53Wdt1pDQZvPc7LdHsyRhCxyvA-3D-3D) (July 6).

**Bear: The ad-only model struggles to monetize AI, and chatbots threaten the whole open web.**

The skeptics, well represented on [The Circuit](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtCWtLy49VcvE5pej5BGtjCl5-2FMCLu56ceG2f3XQ5I9RQpd-2B9hzv33Ry60R0-2BVXpkJjWn07N44n9LRTIi5dtbtg-2Fi400lFPnBB3pTzKnB1iA-3D-3DwukH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMsJTykAH5P8W7vapoAdJilcWHrt-2FkuQmQvjLFvDpC53e5RSKjnaGEROmCaSOYIWSgsqPsTA-2F7m1JMLpKgDbwkERv7SkH-2BoGMIvC2LlPFj9Qhbp-2BtE8CT-2BK25uZGFJ-2BiE7Q-3D-3D) (July 6), argue that a company "whose business model is advertising solely" has a harder path to earning back its AI spending than Google, which "can capitalize on commerce a different way." Their read on Meta is blunt: the founder's big-picture AI vision keeps pulling focus away from the boring lever that actually makes money, better ads. And there's a structural threat hanging over everyone. As shopping and search migrate into ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity, the open-web storefront could "go dark," taking the brand's traffic and first-party data with it, a risk Watson flagged directly for Shopify. The near-term worry is simpler: if capex keeps climbing and investors stay scared, valuation compresses no matter how fast revenue grows. That is, more or less, exactly what Meta's stock has been doing.

## Stocks in play

**Meta (META)** - *Bull:* fastest-growing, highest-margin ad business in big tech, with proprietary AI tooling (its GEM ranking model, Andromeda retrieval system, and a new ROAS-trained image model) that rivals can't easily copy; monthly tracking data cited on [Pitch The PM](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiz-2FwLrZ2bH6AgzSxRaFy6nyXwxIlMiI2pLRbjROVfBBR4HrvpedeoYhGbjuRWVSv-2B-2FwEnammR-2F6BGdTZTak8tzttRrhNgxdVVi-2B3BZHOwPJw-3D-3DI8DA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMsZHpDeTi7XwrX7jbJd9Fl76P5vPJpn-2Fgf-2ByfC9hQb8cUWYp34Q27ajGhFUTL0AjC7IkDQuRGlNlZCDB0cJqGLRiHtxHahyA-2B4EiLQT2Tx3PhPFv-2BOO6hBgzugYQVZXpZQ-3D-3D) shows 33-34% growth versus 27% consensus. *Bear:* free cash flow taken to zero by an AI capex bill "bigger than metaverse"; Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth conceded on [The Most Interesting Thing in AI](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiKxLLPDsNwIOZayUXHkHC3pRRIQuIbReujQT0CbIgiqipbYM051bTigdD5PjEF32-2BoXr-2BA9WyVm6r9FcMI8bB8UFwrH6l3l63EKlDZkB2lwg-3D-3DV-8C_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMhBuLZ1pWWWwA-2FBLwaHnv11McJvlCLOyn6BLZ-2B6OJzWmIeviTPXuvKA4TVk2SXFXcyqOaC81ObPB2ZYhACm7JiSXziIbVfjnq9Q8QALUmJntdrbWRV1ERpOMb9ycVx-2FcHw-3D-3D) (July 8) that Llama 4 "wasn't competitive," a reminder the AI effort has stumbled. *Watch:* any signal that capex is plateauing (Emory pegs the peak near $165 billion), plus whether the new Muse Spark 1.1 paid API and Meta's small-business ad agent, which Bosworth called "absolutely best in class," actually show up in revenue.

**Alphabet / Google (GOOGL)** - *Bull:* Google's ad exec Marie Gulin-Merle argued on [The CMO Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOit-2FSnpGlrarBYHHeZlSSU44orJV3MivqGv0rpOaKiWprytUXBFNnuMSl5svsNMwsWR4DTidnw71mNZnZ0m6wZsS567CbuupWsBFiYHXNmo5g-3D-3DYiMx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMo6q5tNT4r6ZWvh7apuHK0VZ6TSXdfxgpHG2Osm2ezr-2FIN8vhdRnQ9jHmIZET1tVjOgWOTak6fo9T2GvHazh8Yj5tBXo2EwsUw-2BDfCE0HlqEbbmru9blcU0qYYw-2Bwvk0zw-3D-3D) (July 8) that AI search is *expanding* queries, not shrinking them, "unlike the intuition a few years ago... it's actually more", and that Google already monetizes AI well through commerce and search. *Bear:* the whole industry now expects Google to put ads in Gemini, which invites the "you're not close to AGI if you have to sell ads" critique and muddies the premium AI story. *Watch:* when (not if) formal Gemini ad formats launch, and whether AI Overviews cannibalize or grow high-intent search clicks.

**Amazon (AMZN)** - *Bull:* advertising "grew 24% to over $17 billion in the quarter, more than $70 billion trailing," at close to software margins, per [The Watson Weekly](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOioJYKhVqUTNfapGfYcLpgAF-2FWSXO632YF08i96Hfo4rRRwRp9GzATZrYGfjC-2BgeK1cMSw-2Bu6Ysz1ScG-2FJW3d6wsRFjYLqx-2BdcBTO28LToviQ-3D-3DXzFN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMj1SesK1RL1FSTL-2FouS3RKTvOPazK6IYorOhTM6gpTFOfwXKTYkXPkufn1TDVdzUxzwrYACrA3Um6NNse9qDYiv2MlJI2ClqFv8ygyxYcAn-2BpehCpwGZY4zcPKriVOxt-2Fw-3D-3D); Kantrowitz called Amazon "very serious" about sports rights because streaming feeds shopping. *Bear:* $44.2 billion of quarterly capex is compressing free cash flow the same way Meta's is. *Watch:* whether the Pinterest storefront tie-up and Prime Video ads keep pushing ad growth as retail unit growth normalizes after the June Prime Day pull-forward.

**Walmart (WMT)** - *Bull:* ad growth of 37% globally / 44% in the US, plus a global "Connect" rebrand and TV-focused acquisitions (Vizio, Vibe) that open entirely new ad surfaces; membership deterministic data gives it measurement most rivals can't match. *Bear:* it's still "a very, very thin grocery and general merchandise engine" underneath the media business, and it's chasing Amazon's playbook rather than writing its own. *Watch:* whether the unified Connect umbrella actually lowers advertiser friction and pulls in brands that don't even sell at Walmart (think insurers buying TV inventory).

**Criteo (CRTO)** - *Bull:* on [Marketecture](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhl7PS-2BcZLA0E59Xx0NgLQP9JzoBzB2Jp-2F9UHFxU-2BvfTaoUnxZXQJoBTUaG3VTlFe58hZyiGLtBL5WQG51oKCIyAlctXSNNfqXXx1yZzSGXLQ-3D-3Dy9SX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMprZZfx-2BBf0-2BhlU9UTWRTEwS7OarVzjT9GTNCfftc2JYTWXtdsWDG82cBzHhJGmQlUUp8n9d7ywBMJaBheOJ9J3iVIFzJk5awqhOsKRWsOG81jFP5w47gP1qmNaGlLTDqw-3D-3D) (July 6), CPO Todd Parsons positioned the new AI "Go" platform as the independent, cross-channel alternative for the very advertisers frustrated by Google Performance Max and Meta Advantage+, and said Criteo has "opened up CPC in OpenAI," an early foothold in chatbot ads. *Bear:* it's a small independent squeezed between giants, and "we don't sell data" independence is also a scale disadvantage. *Watch:* whether Go wins share among the small and mid-sized businesses that are Meta and Google's bread and butter.

## Read-throughs

**Emerging platforms.** **Reddit (RDDT)** got the week's most concrete practitioner nod: on [Do This, NOT That](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiM2jVkr6-2B-2FvglwB6waqbggqZeWxdii1RlWAgQ2tuYNvZ13hiE6uTniqubJZKJmp4hibGqPbXcI9yPcD5fyXnFWyeEsBOV-2Ff2VmYxSalabPIA-3D-3Dtn0S_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMiovMeisgM9bpjdEJi5o5zUT9w7MotAfH-2FANF7wC0o2cm8rMEmoV19E3KN-2FQuWRXWFTzS8qcz5ztGS3Etfvoz0-2FIK9ndUvtqNaugIJ2lR9ixQVYtUQwG7OfxXhW5DhIoyQ-3D-3D) (July 7), marketer Jay Schwedelson said Reddit "finally announced this week the ability to do split testing" for ads and that its newer ad units are performing so well that "people are sleeping on Reddit." **Pinterest (PINS)** surfaced twice, as one of the platforms Walmart's ad business has now overtaken, and via a new integration letting creators link their Amazon storefronts and auto-apply affiliate tags, flagged on [Stop Scrolling, Start Scaling](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2BKmCJFw-2FqczCnuH6lBEQXfxuhsl-2FaYuMVXLRY1yinEQaM-2B7FiQvolcN2rEPLENQ7EyWmkUlzub7jPCJFfxTNsz3kl9-2BOUvprWoaIxhPannA-3D-3DhC5L_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMjD2eTie3e8x09pv2Yts3wUyJDGbnrRfTjsMcnuG6oaHLBnKJwxNsH-2FBO02ZqhPrDPNd89lCfPPabpySovvflnUe0-2F6r-2Fcuim2NkE91NzB4y76sBKv-2BrFJrsVxqKt6ir-2BQ-3D-3D) (July 8) as a possible precursor to a deeper Amazon-Pinterest tie-up into the holidays. On Kantrowitz's [Marketecture](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjc25Txf-2BAp4IaTNc2gjSWkNfnwmqZ76dKZ-2BAO0PKE0hn47ST816ZLCNRJOI30xQpN95eaqdohvCTKnn54-2Fhl52vYPIza3UvaOdd5eSkEEMag-3D-3Daih2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMsIPPXdNormhQq8YsEm4Xf6WGXHwL-2BOsJ7zb-2B0wvWO9m-2BHCCcC4tiI6DFWJtCqinCo2DiLSlkdaJ4rFKqxAszJx8TZblYWXJilZVhHRDRGqTB36HIGntibuM3Fnh81NNwg-3D-3D), Seufert made the bull case for Pinterest's ~600 million users and unique "mid-funnel" intent data (after its TV Scientific acquisition), while Kantrowitz worried AI could eat the "Pinspiration" use case. **Snap** and **AppLovin** were essentially absent, Snap earned only a dismissive aside (Kantrowitz agreed it's a "terminal underperformer... the only chance is for the company to get acquired"), and AppLovin appeared only as a fastest-grower comparison.

**Retail-media operators.** Beyond Walmart and Amazon, the standout was **Sam's Club Connect**. On [Next in Media](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjpwR8kcR6KzonPhJQmCYH39gciFXQYr73HcWR0raKxxdT5duZsl7YuW9DLTLEzKeqGdUeAM5o65t9iegizz2BWvvFDrWcRCJA3odMlkwwo2w-3D-3DM7cB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMgiaA2GUc1gz5iV9J52e08TZGtAHU-2Fe7j0rSj3NBZUpv2K279J1dh0pAZlVXQjEeLmVM64OeDsH6VT8sVVWFxOZSLWAzOebfXopHlCQPm9Ya-2Fa4GhK288nFXRIPKaEPu9A-3D-3D) (July 7), GM Harvey Ma explained the rebrand folds Walmart Connect, Sam's Club Connect and International Connect into "one large global ads ecosystem." His pitch for why membership retail media is different is worth quoting: "You could actually come to a Sam's Club. You could pay with a jar full of pennies, but we still know exactly who you are." That deterministic, closed-loop measurement, no guessing who the shopper is, is the exact thing brand marketers said they're starving for. **Instacart** had no dedicated coverage this week.

**CTV and streaming.** No analyst went deep on Roku, Disney, Netflix or Warner's ad inventory this week. The connected-TV story showed up indirectly, through Walmart's Vizio/Vibe TV push and Amazon's Prime Video ads, rather than through the pure-play names.

**Ad-measurement vendors.** No dedicated episodes on DoubleVerify, Integral Ad Science, LiveRamp, Magnite or PubMatic. The measurement conversation this week was owned by the retail-media and CPG side (Ibotta/Circana), where the theme was standardization and independent, causal verification.

**The new frontier: ads inside chatbots.** On [Mobile Dev Memo](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOht8KxcUtkkiaEiebLX8FuwLSV-2B8B85Gg9cF843805Bt6toptn-2FnlSfrKEIGIi82TUkxgPovwOp6h5BThXXP38Y8hgUKGx3TYCv6WNnk71N2w-3D-3DEIni_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXlbqwhOP-2FpO6bVi7W0Bo7JMPAZl4Eh5Fa2DyX1GlIQMuVQzv7uWX54hS-2FHs1ETatifFli4x2uNNu3c6Ek-2BWWDWRRpQe86ISk34cXCXM6j5DNPmowzAHgjDzhlIFNJwSafyeYffOTWGpHDGKUkrNcDle7mAzSdPqfAGH2PS7jiSrA-3D-3D) (July 8), ad-tech founder Tal Shoham explained the economics forcing AI apps toward advertising: only "5%, 6% of the users will turn into subscribers... 95% of the users will never pay," but unlike free mobile games, those free users are "a massive cost center... for inference and tokens." He confirmed OpenAI "introduced ads a few months ago" and launched a cheaper "GPT Go" tier at $8 (versus $20) with ads. The interesting new ingredient is *intent*, what you tell a chatbot you're trying to do, which he says is producing "5x, 10x better" click-through rates than older targeting in early tests. Plain-English translation: the thing that made Google Search ads so valuable (knowing what you want, right now) is being recreated inside every chatbot.

## What changed vs last week

Busier and more substantive than a typical week, but concentrated. Meta dominated the conversation on two fronts at once: the "is the AI capex worth it" debate, and a flurry of product news (the Muse Spark 1.1 paid API, ad-algorithm changes advertisers are still digesting). Retail media got real numbers and a real Walmart rebrand, helped by a wave of Cannes Lions interviews airing this week (Sam's Club Connect, Criteo, Ibotta/Circana). The clear white space: the independent ad-tech and CTV names went quiet. There was **no dedicated coverage of The Trade Desk, DoubleVerify, Integral Ad Science, LiveRamp, Magnite, PubMatic or Instacart**, and **Snap and AppLovin got only passing mentions**. If you cover those names, this was a quiet week for them specifically, the action was in the mega-caps and retail media.

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