# Nvidia Turns Cheap as Memory Makers Become the Most Profitable on Earth - Weekly Semis & AI Infrastructure Podcast Recap - Week of July 12, 2026

> Weekly semiconductors and AI infrastructure podcast recap for the week of July 12, 2026. Nvidia fell to its cheapest valuation since 2019 as customers insource chips, memory makers turned parabolic, SK Hynix listed on Nasdaq, and the $1.5 trillion capex debate sharpened.

## Weekly Semis & AI Infrastructure Podcast Recap

### Week of July 12, 2026: Nvidia Turns Cheap as Memory Makers Become the Most Profitable on Earth

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A busy week on the podcasts. Two stories swallowed everything else: Nvidia quietly became the cheapest it has been in years even as it still runs the AI world, and the memory-chip makers, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, went from boring commodity businesses to the most profitable companies on the planet, capped by the biggest foreign listing in U.S. stock-market history. Underneath those headlines, the debate that really matters kept getting sharper: is the roughly $1.5 trillion that big tech is about to spend on AI a rational build-out, or the setup for a painful reckoning?

Everything below comes from podcasts published in the last seven days. Where a number or a claim comes from a specific show, the show is named and linked.

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## Top of mind this week

**1. Nvidia lost about $1 trillion in value in under two months, and bulls now call it "cheap."** On [The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjMRu9q6cMwIR0v-2BlB9C-2FbN5WwaovbHnHJKvQBLacYnS6dxl4-2FDdqraE3N8Pg1fnpJCEyO-2FIuAFG-2BbbvR5PgL7NoqYWy2KUOYBdk5ts2Oow4w-3D-3DH7oC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uDZKlSMgW1mLAz98lFDx93ew9RRidh397i0MdbfgbQ7bUD9qFyHC1k783YXxAaeH7eWOabWpYoAjArTyw0TOTht5Y6jW4zohUloVonR4IR3AvFc2nEeBf3JU6hEo9T6irg-3D-3D) (Jul 9), the hosts noted Nvidia now trades near 18 times forward earnings, its cheapest since early 2019, actually cheaper than the average S&P 500 stock, even though it still holds roughly 97% of the server-GPU market, with Wall Street's average price target near $300 (about 50% upside). The catch: hyperscalers building their own chips, and reports of delays to the next-generation server racks. On [CNBC's Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi8a2-2BgH-2B42HAnk1Bn9WuJhMeJXEkX3YiJSSyJEMNyvLFO6VbfrVeY1qERPWamcGhjIyVLOxP0nqfeevn36FzI9bK-2Bl3crySe6gN4mOhalc-2Fw-3D-3DzSwM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uPcSQ1SzpMMyGsGZplNzFQEY-2FFX8sewP4TqMw9LipQY47AUrjLmiJ02h9A-2F1Iru8HjFvG-2Fucd41MI0vXE1BzfIghZjlB4d1J7fVY6T8Pm4fOyN71qgGPoVUDInB1Yps-2FrQ-3D-3D) (Jul 8), one trader called it "too cheap" while another warned "this could be the pinnacle of Nvidia."

**2. The memory supercycle went parabolic.** Samsung reported a record quarter, and South Korea's SK Hynix pulled off the largest-ever U.S. listing by a foreign company, a $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut. Memory, the podcasters kept repeating, is no longer a commodity: the three companies that make the high-end AI memory can name their price, and they are raising it again.

**3. Broadcom locked in Apple.** A custom-chip deal worth more than $30 billion, running through 2031, dominated the tech shows and reframed Broadcom as the go-to "arms dealer" for custom AI silicon.

**4. The capex question got louder.** With Amazon raising $25 billion in bonds and Meta guiding capex toward $145 billion, the shows split hard between "we're still in the early innings" and "this rhymes with 1999."

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## Dominant themes

### Theme 1, Nvidia's valuation reset and the rise of custom chips

The single most-discussed idea all week was that Nvidia's biggest customers are quietly becoming its competitors. On [Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgf1t6RznzFLqLX-2FA3-2F6o-2FSrDEPWJpha-2B0DukeZ5NnC45ZlogvKHub-2FV5Efauq92uOWFlZLQ1sdex-2FljA88bX9XtKGHe36tinysxPep5hsVHQ-3D-3DGlpi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uLjncik364RYJC-2FQSd0bxWj7OBJ5frxTRDJDtnp-2FfRM7S0cF8W48TVN3f7oPxvbOkbenbFH-2FNqi2uQYLhdm2osnjoZ3hsJUGCiJ2FMLfWB56FJuIN88a2zlurMcDhwt5Fw-3D-3D) (Jul 8), Mandeep Singh, Global Head of Tech Research, explained the sell-off plainly: "it's not just Google TPUs anymore. Meta, all these hyperscalers are focused more on the inference side of things... And they've left the training market to Nvidia." (Inference is the everyday running of an AI model to answer questions; training is the far more compute-heavy process of building the model in the first place.) His key point: nothing will threaten Nvidia in the next six months, but "the fact that everyone is looking to build their own chips is a sign that there will be more competition for Nvidia down the line." Even OpenAI and Anthropic, he noted, are now designing their own chips, with timelines two to three years out.

On [The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjgMqr0j8-2BZWspDH-2FZqTKZSOydqSakMAgPBygGG1GvDcEkCDZPtaisi9m2He-2FJsDyj0PvKkWoIMkvPaccFR7tiMQPtWSBKU-2BozBE9wzOOLgFA-3D-3DQ49x_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uIbZV6T8v2vAx6VlzABhZuhsp9yk0K7LyugkeF3oJNHsIClSEMpW9aHKRnyRTPIg2iXKFKcLRREH3ja4ZLI9lJaLHgAP2hfQ7P-2B776oLWyp0i9bXtsyF73AOtlGjMseVgQ-3D-3D) (Jul 10), J.P. Morgan's Michael Cembalest put numbers on it: according to J.P. Morgan equity research, hyperscalers using their own in-house chips, Google's TPUs, AWS's Trainium, Microsoft's Maia, Meta's, are seeing total-cost-of-ownership reductions of 30% to 40% versus buying Nvidia. For years, he said, "we were all told that Nvidia GPUs were untouchable... And that they were stuck contributing forever to Nvidia's 70% gross margin. That was wrong." His warning: even if those in-house chips never get sold to outsiders, the fact that Nvidia's biggest buyers are replacing some of their Nvidia purchases is itself "big news." He noted Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to around 18-20 times, adding pointedly: "I don't think Nvidia getting cheaper is, like, awesome."

Not everyone is bearish. On [Money Rehab](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhGK10zWSnZ6E203Y4PdPEhLXp9NlrNUwWT6Fp2Ds2nO5MjupAuANR8xH-2BhueXCg5a1xRvIc-2FoPrcI-2BjtVE-2FxWMA58cFpY8t0W4ua0bPGlJ4g-3D-3DgkNH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uKqQFoT4Tn1ev3soPBAXsa6Rz166ERzC7gD7nyp0hMBiv8BRwGy5IE5id1VMwwlIbdNEbC3czn0JKq-2FFdv38Y15IBYqHC3iJXF-2BqxaLv8U5wPb7rQfUl-2Fu-2B-2FJSlf1F-2F6hg-3D-3D) (Jul 6), Hightower Chief Investment Strategist Stephanie Link argued Nvidia is "crazy cheap for what you're getting", trading around 14 times forward estimates for a company growing 50%, but said she owns Broadcom, Marvell, AMD and Intel instead, because "everyone owns Nvidia and you rarely make money when everyone owns and everyone's on the same side of the boat." She thinks we're only in "the third inning" of the AI revolution.

### Theme 2, The memory boom: the most profitable corner of AI

This was the richest thread of the week. On [Limitless](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhl0PfHOZg8o2E-2FCTE-2BZX72dlZyHXwHN2PvE27ewSlvACN3lb2jTGq4jzxjcrZ-2FgGVEu-2BQMVfpwmFT88-2BZLJ2UQl30rULcnRA9s5fXBQhUQ8Q-3D-3D1es9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uLSOBGP-2FcwneoWgwN4C8ClMSWNhdxaEaqYiExKE9ZGB6jQ4Y4hlr-2FqKsk8-2FquQl-2F7GOUblmJEwbALUUss30LPQi4eCGtaBArlMOC53S3mT32PIbTQ0mVK3GGvcieJ0uW3A-3D-3D) (Jul 9), the hosts walked through why Samsung just became, by their figures, the most profitable company in the world: about 96% of its profit now comes from memory. They reported Samsung's quarterly profit at $58.5 billion, roughly $3 billion above expectations and ahead of Nvidia's $53 billion, which they translated to about $650 million per day, $27 million per hour, $7,500 per second. A year earlier that same quarterly figure was $3.4 billion.

The reason is high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, specialized memory stacked "12 to 16 stories high" that every AI chip needs in enormous quantities. Only three companies make it at scale: SK Hynix (about 60% of the HBM market, per Limitless), Samsung and Micron. The pricing power is staggering: the hosts said memory prices were hiked 90% in the first quarter, another 50%-60% in the second, with Samsung set to raise prices a further 20% in the third. Profit margins they cited: 52% for Samsung and 72% for SK Hynix, versus about 30% for Apple and 3% for a grocery store. A telling detail: one gigabyte of HBM consumes the factory capacity of roughly four gigabytes of regular memory, so "every wafer that becomes AI memory is a wafer that never becomes laptop or phone memory", which is why Apple just raised prices across its Mac line (a MacBook Pro that was $1,700 a few weeks ago now runs $2,000).

Bernstein's Stacey Rasgon, on [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh65Znm4FvxYnBUhQ6nte97lw1WKrLMY8JAKp3m76iPn0R-2BCoZWQfABWAu1oW9ARTh0eeL1M6uaIEHFBlPo4fS6-2BHRhz7D-2BlcskCWIrq-2BE22Q-3D-3D6l0E_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uAh5D389wGHXzrwOYurbGeF5-2B8IXnAYuzxQ9Fy9WjXUv5EMG61Y-2BPvd-2FezW61kHXyDAlu0-2Fjsnj7FxyNWBVcH9LM4rDve4XQ2AeiRyIPTLS3tVjFrJ2ZY48bwTHa5uQo-2FA-3D-3D) (Jul 9), confirmed the mania is real: "we've seen memory prices explode to the upside... these guys are all driving a 90 percent gross margin, something like that. It's something that we haven't ever seen before." He was reacting to news that Micron will accelerate its U.S. manufacturing investment to more than $250 billion through 2035. Stephanie Link on Money Rehab added Micron specifics: DRAM average selling prices up 60% year-over-year, NAND up 80%, and 16 long-term supply agreements signed last quarter worth $100 billion of contracted revenue through 2028 ($22 billion of it in cash).

### Theme 3, SK Hynix's record Nasdaq listing

SK Hynix's U.S. debut was the single most-covered event of the week. The clean facts, from [CNBC's Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvacJnOGkh1zZ2Fy-2BRgQp3-2Fybnh9yC5mD4tsKoRgYY79StXYAlhJ20IFko2wPXWkuSi2fkO1Pl3etir3xH-2BMRNw86Zt-2FKfL2r7jZnxPNTiJA-3D-3DSaw7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uNk9zq9ZcX398owKey2P14yG1cFfM0KypzxMZZ9HLHbqSQjaVMkgxPQJhBAd6q-2F4rLb0XhqO-2BjKsf-2FBoWjTqedE4vUJtxyCzJqeQCOmI4IpFWZzDbc-2FiHkvYwIZdCX8tYw-3D-3D) (Jul 10) and [Halftime Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgySSvWrihgZfJOgswwuJ8ss5oKNopuzcWkAIQ2AxfuXrmBZ2gAsaY77LoNIo-2FIOQ-2Becox7gvkAUNN1AVacZn4qfkoqPR-2FNN1-2FV-2BFibB2zROA-3D-3DDzro_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uBEPmunzqsYPIFYssnm9q9wBxHjyCTOCZjOrpPCpMvzVIUX8m8FcL8386C0TX1ogkigIfk78EZuHjwVgvCwFtRkbzrgM5gDuLgZF-2Fc-2BKOYbYTV1rnGsGIq-2BeAspAt9rQBw-3D-3D) (Jul 10): the company raised $26.5 billion, priced its American shares (ADRs) at $149, opened at $170 and closed around $168, a 16% premium to the same stock in Seoul. It was more than seven times oversubscribed (versus three to four times for SpaceX's recent listing) and is the biggest U.S. listing by a foreign company ever, second only to SpaceX as a share sale. SK Hynix holds roughly 56%-58% of the HBM market, "the purest way to play" AI memory and Nvidia's biggest memory supplier, versus Samsung and Micron at about 21% each. On valuation it is actually cheaper than Micron: around 5.8 times forward earnings versus Micron's roughly 6.8-7 times.

The most substantive interview was SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won on [Bloomberg Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg9FYwrLwbHU5xdyyDSK5ybXGSM4FTqcAqk43lb5l-2B8V-2FLPNwAQr-2B4bVs6BBB5DO1m9E9-2B-2BpRZDVrlsibqMpowySb2HEDzQbY78I83VKtovMA-3D-3DwqZa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uAIgVP5LIirijkLSk3Ocj8I3C540bXUHh16ABkYzmq7PuyJ9PgJCkkYOSg106ZkFNEk024CMEmMyxjquEonhd5axtkrrZLcQCdZiHda3YOrzS9yLL5xQNtR94HUa174xyA-3D-3D) (Jul 10). He said SK Hynix plans to double capacity within five years, but that customers say even that is not enough: "they want us that we're closing up five times, six times... the more is the better because that demand will be exponentially grow in the future." He expects supply to stay tight until "our human society has said there was some settlement with AGI." He also floated a longer-term idea of selling "memory as a service" rather than just chips, and argued that token costs (a rough measure of how expensive it is to run AI) will fall to one-fifth or one-tenth of today's within three years. On the bubble question: "you can say the AI bubble, but I see that... this AI technology is real."

### Theme 4, Broadcom, Apple and the custom-silicon land grab

Broadcom's more-than-$30-billion, multi-year deal to build custom chips for Apple through 2031 was everywhere. On [The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhPv3CIW4A0Cbut6phXYTwGIxADXyPIgxECFD-2Bg41lrdTOSQteJrqx7FTWeQXVRFJ16wPwa4VwcGH5u9mKrZGYn30Aw0kjM1iuVa9K9FbLHNg-3D-3DuY2B_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uPQVWPEO3BRTAuBxiGl-2BHhKYXuVMqzEdml1cdJ3WWDDcAzvaaUusqkDMI48W8ZVZMELwj9uOpviRxyZC7MntgNTor3rQ2aMGPX63pTIiLx5g-2BziPElwXFsasG7B1gzuFYg-3D-3D) (Jul 6), the hosts noted Apple already accounts for about 20% of Broadcom's revenue, and this positions Broadcom as a supplier across Google, Meta, OpenAI and now Apple in the AI race. On [Bloomberg Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOju-2BC6ysbsNlykq3PiHJKb6LNHQ19lpfuA-2FUZYUtQWq8x8yfPqSCFwPYrTl65oSas-2Bw5MzjyzJSYBLm0TGRw4x5JRgrYulzTJiIYCQFOxE3Jw-3D-3DS6a5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uOBptksOgP6uG7BRuRX4b5S3YmTXbJLdqA5Oq8JMrfWcYrTkXWPh0xMmOizM7oK59Wpwhqn0xF8J7fe-2FzrSYB3cnsxvfis-2Bgl0T9p8FS9kbZHybkLPhUnD03C6rRsDcOVA-3D-3D) (Jul 6), the detail that stood out was a custom AI-server chip codenamed Baltra, launching in 2027-2028 with roughly 4x the GPU/CPU performance of prior parts, plus a $1.5 billion investment in Broadcom's Fort Collins, Colorado facility. Bloomberg Intelligence's Anurag Rana framed the deal as more symbolic than novel, much of it is chips Apple already buys, but now U.S.-manufactured, "the first part of the commitment Tim Cook has made to President Trump."

Rasgon added the bigger picture: Broadcom has guided to more than $100 billion in AI revenue next year on the back of custom chips, and is working with Meta across "multiple generations." Meta, per [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh65Znm4FvxYnBUhQ6nte97lw1WKrLMY8JAKp3m76iPn0R-2BCoZWQfABWAu1oW9ARTh0eeL1M6uaIEHFBlPo4fS6-2BHRhz7D-2BlcskCWIrq-2BE22Q-3D-3Dl1X6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uPsAqGV4FfNUS6nj6-2BZjPvFBG-2FRDFL1dqzsrQc8sGCEP1COJ6hcqaNPtaAhkVEMYiIYaXp47i6Zl-2By5BegEZLNow4bkjuLtxVnpJ8perEJ8HOB32sQrJ-2FnaXcs5mKhEfSA-3D-3D), plans to begin manufacturing its own custom AI chip by September. On the flip side, [Chip Stock Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgozHWSwznfBpHFoJrbfSrSxyMoITgJMUir9tEMDmGHuP96zALzO3-2BW-2F6mBh1YwoJxgShAYangRynUuk-2FIvrAuZkTxoYBOcXA3jj-2FOZd0YUVQ-3D-3DROYC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uALF0lgMpgwjrF0WHXSPv-2B-2B92KsukvTq8BPwApJLax4-2FK1qFAArEDtFrQpfadCB2NC-2BXkZ8d2kcM-2BjkR791efHuL1QETDPeCGByCwZ2gjYVKAYR6UdvnhsFUayzgpH9jVg-3D-3D) (Jul 7) pushed back on the euphoria around Marvell, the "baby Broadcom", after Jensen Huang called it the next $1 trillion company. They acknowledged Marvell's strong quarter ($2.4 billion revenue, up 28%, guiding to $2.7 billion and 35% growth next quarter) but argued AMD or Intel are likelier $1-trillion candidates, and that Huang has good reason to talk up an ecosystem partner he holds a stake in.

### Theme 5, Hyperscaler capex: early innings, or overbuilt?

On [Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjFqxAGcwYz4xD2PwJ1S1-2FAYQWt76HJpIyFfwK-2FOOMDQavQFhkAwF2zZqojYHjg1ijMg9Kxc3gBWpfVj9zR-2BA4fKMtgNCL9GLWzL2BPmG0oXw-3D-3DY0Zz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uFNYhbUaedQund-2BnCLxpL3IMbNmwJgirAzXS3rVRzBeZ2cWOA-2B7atar1rTZ2sdQhgNsqJwCzl-2BkIftT7r7JuzTF0FG1OJzi-2BJAyvCTR8D9u2r5kgUYRRG1hgrnoeTeHa5A-3D-3D) (Jul 7), Deepwater's Gene Munster made the bullish quantitative case: Wall Street expected hyperscaler capex to grow 17% next year a few weeks ago, then 23%, and after Amazon's $25 billion bond raise and recent Google comments, he thinks the real number is closer to 37%. His argument for why spending keeps rising: AI adoption is barely underway, only about 0.6% of ride-share trips will be autonomous this year, heading to about 1.5% next year. HSBC's Max Kettner, same episode, called the roughly 20% drawdown in hyperscaler stocks from mid-May to late June "unjustified" and "a little bit overblown," and said he'd lean into the hyperscalers over the pure build-out names.

Meta's answer to skeptics got its own deep dive on [The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgju-2BZtN-2BWIm8xGY0kI-2Fzs5nQgA3C7olbUBUxCPdhwduXgqpD1-2Boq8mNonkyC2Gkvv4svHl9v-2FORX-2BceSJz6TRU7J9bjXH6wlPSmDANK3Pieg-3D-3DdQjT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uBLToyAjH0vaaJgxPFYC98RQ9wIPJBomMMzhnd6bW88gN-2FMQBJmYqPQuIouQOXA6cPYesGI-2BNc96-2BmSpouXzlz63R08lbT-2B2yOJreVrfUWQTrdxyPQzlRA4akMhc0VBXnA-3D-3D) (Jul 11): the company is launching a cloud business, "Meta Compute," to rent out spare AI computing power, putting it in direct competition with neocloud firms like CoreWeave and Nebius. Meta is projected to spend up to $145 billion in capex this year; last quarter it did $56.3 billion in revenue, up 33% (its fastest growth since 2021), with ad prices up 12%. The host compared it to Elon Musk's xAI, which he said now rents excess capacity to Anthropic and Google for more than $2 billion a month combined. The market liked it: Meta jumped 9% on the news while CoreWeave and Nebius fell.

The counterweight came from Cembalest on The Compound, who drew the sharpest historical analogy of the week. From 1995 to 1999, he recalled, communications-equipment stocks like Cisco kept soaring even as their customers, the internet service providers, started to roll over. "Who is Cisco going to sell this stuff to?" he asked. "The last three months, the hyperscalers are starting to roll over even though the semiconductor index is zooming... if the big four hyperscalers plus Oracle can't convince the market that they're earning a good return on a trillion five of capital spending outlays, those infrastructure stocks are at risk." He noted Micron is now bigger than Meta, and warned the component suppliers, the optical and networking names, "will be the last car off the cliff."

### Theme 6, Power is the real bottleneck

A striking number of shows argued the binding constraint on AI is no longer chips but electricity. On [Follow the Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiZbf-2FsLz0c-2F0WHKh4Rh4XSE91gUzoGj5bq7MROkuzZuoH3TOsa7AinFvj-2FZGmJSNgxkpO5HsyqCOxfUHVFc-2BdR4kGG91LdOxoOaVUWEk1WTA-3D-3D1eQn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uE0Nn3xw4SVdq8JEJ-2BYL6ylP9a-2FPmExa3w6GJbUE6CMJ7E9vyTcm6019al8GAzExadImXPNAX50xzkboYqJk54hd-2FPSuN9DkRw4VhffTJDmRGeg62Bi2mZA4ThzaFBeJVg-3D-3D) (Jul 8), host Jerry Robinson cited the International Energy Agency's projection that global data-center electricity use could more than double by 2030 to about 945 terawatt-hours, and a vivid real-world example: an Ohio brick manufacturer whose monthly power-capacity charges jumped from $1,600 to $12,000 as big tech bid up local power. He framed the opportunity as the "picks and shovels" of the power stack, nuclear (Cameco, Constellation, Vistra, Oklo), natural gas (EQT, Williams, Kinder Morgan, Cheniere) and grid infrastructure.

On [Next in Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQY8gBUhxBA3WuxY7WOAT49A58RfSr2OuM54X8puGdsEehLskJ-2B5k1cPjDKeRNDcbLAVTKSn1qOPtSHRFRDuyDFZpROjOIzo9lU3yFp2Hj4w-3D-3D5Vh9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uMafTs2s0RrBXEXucor14nq6FjDOMsQzz5vOA17e7l23erC6FvFzvhRPA1GHcQXjAth5aEOExxSIprN9CKAN-2BG45LbLl8iWIdUUPnVMiu5OadMQrp6zkOAwSUykl5l38zQ-3D-3D) (Jul 7), Emerald AI CEO Dr. Varun Sivaram laid out the mismatch: the U.S. wants to connect 50 gigawatts of AI data centers by 2028, but the grid can only handle about 25, with interconnection queues running 10 to 12 years. His fix, making data centers "flexible" so they ease off during rare peak hours, could, he argued, fit 100 gigawatts on today's grid immediately, because the grid has 99% spare capacity most of the year. On [Thoughts on the Market](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi1lM9t4WL7hnUXJppzLm8G5HYQs5IiSs9lV9M1qIsSB-2FN2blxnk8IXvy6XfEyG3C1rTayW3Yr998wMBDvAI8XPs-2BzEOUHnzk7UvYONlQ95LA-3D-3DIeyc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uNmjGsH48jVPIivLWdCJeS5nmjTZj2MEl0wkKa-2BsQiB05d1F66eJT9RghYlvAYIJy55ycKFQkM4juDXyGGmFssxtQ2pxshCCfxZXh9tYYKe1fAwbhyFDuqkzUJNzDAQMAg-3D-3D) (Jul 7), Morgan Stanley flagged the politics: 75 data-center projects worth $130 billion were blocked or delayed in the first quarter of 2026 alone, equal to the whole of 2025, pushing developers toward off-grid natural gas and fuel cells. And [Grumpy Old Geeks](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi7cvW2WzFKL-2FaJ-2FYI6JJRdwNLFG5iyPNopMl7AVgl5uIlm2lWWIgPYS0m-2BLoO7h8-2BhEsOgJ2C59WBI6mqIDgOu3VwOWpj8udOuL4JExAFCcA-3D-3DpyR1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uMBshg67txzcl4xe3cOZko41D3H-2FESrPVr-2BW852kvDNrdRVSr0Wo4D2FtswyELIsdQW8S0LoZelMGppqXCoOE0jAuZd-2FLH8WqtWIqrTaSwuYVLXoME6bdE4qxerh5xEjCg-3D-3D) (Jul 9) cited Korean research finding that "agentic" AI (where an AI works autonomously through many steps) uses 136 times more energy than a standard chatbot query, about 348 watt-hours per request.

### Theme 7, Inference is the next battleground

On [Limitless](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg5hkz8f0HCFsZHtqneZn8HTMtOS57AXdF4OfG3ueFVIbmBeEzoTPTQ9uoCduUnMxgxxsAnZBGM9cq5DzbavZhNtDeFPvOhmvi4t639-2F7RL7g-3D-3DSCbi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uDWjom58pTAi64q9zSMWGuDBtFpCqQKJIbfpbtAJzhw94FXN2Hyc9UKOimmclggy1unbZIbWLoNpRpwqyVkT7JzOuZnze1YIHIWnqgWk480u4wx0TdmJTecXry12mzLAsQ-3D-3D) (Jul 7), the hosts made the case that inference, not training, is where the next fortunes will be made, and where Nvidia's moat is weakest. Their key stat: Nvidia GPUs only run at 30%-40% utilization during inference, meaning 60%-70% of an expensive chip sits idle. That gap is the opening for specialized startups like Etched (over $1 billion in customer contracts, more than $800 million raised) and public names like Cerebras. They flagged the year-to-date share moves as a tell: MediaTek up 180%, Broadcom up less than 10%, Cerebras down about 35%, an "asymmetric bet... sitting in front of everyone's faces." They noted Nvidia is not asleep: it bought inference-chip startup Groq for about $20 billion.

Susquehanna's Mehdi Hosseini pushed the same logic to a bearish conclusion on [The Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiUDD-2BctL7w30BuFbIPS-2F5J2PovlAuwEn5QtWZ-2FfyuQqnmVOnvla-2FoK8TFuMIhJZE2YOjQFn6bnKC-2BQuGHWBFIbDFVbt7FPRpq9b9RejFphPA-3D-3D37Wr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uImAz8lDzFlCJncHg-2FW9DOvWY2oUPgYcz9ouq-2BVLGM4zVu6B3LsppV47F08qldVAQNKopMHfgT-2Bx-2FhD5lBUD6zsvgsuIu6o6L-2FEvNu77cHB71Jsi0-2BgahvWaBYD5f8dURQ-3D-3D) (Jul 10): as the world shifts from training to inference, cheaper low-power memory matters more than HBM, and that favors Micron over SK Hynix. He thinks next year's HBM4 could be "the peak of HBM demand."

---

## Key debates

**Is memory peaking?** The bull view (Stacey Rasgon, Stephanie Link, Bill Baruch on [Halftime Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgySSvWrihgZfJOgswwuJ8ss5oKNopuzcWkAIQ2AxfuXrmBZ2gAsaY77LoNIo-2FIOQ-2Becox7gvkAUNN1AVacZn4qfkoqPR-2FNN1-2FV-2BFibB2zROA-3D-3DUUZV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uJIgZYgaSnm5GjtbQkoIxybANnDwi2FkBodw-2FoJpUsrGeitPPDTQDgQV00-2F83HkqUU7ZPXv6jVfAoguRNEXlep3-2BgI0HUv17lF9r-2BrtLPhDyArSexsWXa8AkL8-2BiN7etTQ-3D-3D)): demand so far outstrips supply that Micron is "sold out through 2026" and HBM likely through 2027, with no new capacity arriving before 2028. The bear/cautious view (Mehdi Hosseini on The Exchange; Guy Adami on Fast Money): memory is still a commodity that historically trades at mid-single-digit multiples, margins near 80%+ can only go "sideways" at best, and the shift to inference undercuts HBM. As one Halftime trader put it, Micron up 200% this year is "pricing in those earnings for '27, '28... a best-case scenario."

**Nvidia: value or falling knife?** Bulls (The Rundown, Stephanie Link) see 18x earnings on a company still growing 50% with 97% GPU share as an obvious bargain. Bears (Cembalest) see a slowly deflating multiple that reflects real erosion as customers insource, "the market is being quite sober."

**Overbuild or early innings?** Munster and Kettner say the fear is a recurring narrative that keeps being disproven by rising numbers. Cembalest says watch the buyers, not the sellers: if the hyperscalers can't show a return on $1.5 trillion of spending, the infrastructure names are at risk. This is the debate that will define the second half of 2026.

**Training vs inference.** A genuine fork: if inference dominates, the winners shift toward low-power memory (Micron), specialized inference chips (Etched, Cerebras, Broadcom, MediaTek) and away from Nvidia's training stronghold and pure-HBM plays.

**Bubble or not?** Chairman Chey and Stephanie Link both distinguish the technology (real demand, huge backlogs) from the stock prices (prone to "overshooting"). Link's one real worry: "where I'm going to be wrong is if they start to cut back on the capex, and we're seeing just the opposite." A separate red flag surfaced on [Business of Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhIBGD-2Fi69JkG2Nm9qMHBGHbGCxihBxMVikHUauvrQgax76kyJEjaqtlDqtipN1ve2HoWySOobsuyJvsX8cJiUQBgJf9vmY0PskUFCsDainFA-3D-3Duy2J_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uM9flilPGDrYJOEyrZ06u9JS91Nx60LfPHvhy1Ki44jODRBwNQk3mkQXlKkdkYEhs9KAl6y3NF176ZCnzoqLr6GTPKwYCCRH08oG3lw7h4DQ-2BjQ7U22ekfEDMt-2BrVI3QkA-3D-3D) (Jul 7): OpenAI reportedly spent $1.60 for every $1 it earned last year (improving from $2.37 the year before), a reminder that the economics of the model makers themselves are still deeply unprofitable.

---

## Stocks discussed, bull/bear angle

| Ticker | Direction | Source / Speaker | Argument |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NVDA | Bull | The Rundown (Jul 9); Stephanie Link, Money Rehab | ~18x forward earnings, cheapest since 2019; ~97% GPU share; ~50% growth; avg ~$300 target implies 50% upside |
| NVDA | Bear / cautious | Michael Cembalest, The Compound; Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence | Customers insourcing chips at 30-40% cheaper TCO; forward P/E compressing (18-20x) is a warning, not a gift |
| SK Hynix | Bull | Halftime Report; CNBC Fast Money | Purest HBM play (~57% share), Nvidia's top memory supplier, cheaper than Micron at 5.8x; ~$14B passive index buying ahead (Barclays) |
| SK Hynix | Bear / cautious | Mehdi Hosseini, The Exchange; Bonawyn Eison, Fast Money | Shift to inference favors low-power DRAM; HBM4 may mark peak HBM demand; "peak euphoria" IPO trade |
| MU (Micron) | Bull | Stacey Rasgon; Bill Baruch, Halftime; Mehdi Hosseini | Sold out through 2026, HBM through 2027; ~90% gross margins; $100B contracted through 2028; better positioned for inference than SK Hynix |
| MU | Bear / cautious | Guy Adami, Fast Money/Halftime | Commodity stock historically ~mid-single-digit multiple; 200% run prices in a best case; still cyclical |
| AVGO (Broadcom) | Bull | The Rundown; Bloomberg Tech; Stacey Rasgon | $30B+ Apple deal through 2031; $100B+ AI revenue guided next year; "arms dealer" to Google, Meta, OpenAI, Apple |
| AAPL | Bull | CNBC Fast Money (Jul 10) | Near record high; ~$126B free cash flow "hedge"; stayed out of the capex race and is being rewarded for it |
| META | Bull | The Rundown (Jul 11); Halftime Report | Rev +33%; new Meta Compute cloud gives a "clear, direct path" to monetize AI infrastructure; 20x earnings |
| META | Bear / cautious | The Rundown | $145B capex; investors still scarred by ~$87B metaverse spend; free cash flow compressed |
| MRVL (Marvell) | Bull | Jensen Huang (via Chip Stock Investor) | Called the "next $1 trillion company"; Q1 rev $2.4B +28%, guiding to +35% |
| MRVL | Bear | Nick & Kasey Rossolillo, Chip Stock Investor | Run-up overheated; AMD or Intel likelier $1T candidates; Huang has a stake and a PR motive |
| AMD | Bull | Stephanie Link, Money Rehab; Chip Stock Investor | Owned as a cheaper AI play than Nvidia; a more credible next-$1T name |
| AMD / NVDA | Bear (technical) | OVTLYR ([How to Trade](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOikMHYqpFOa0NhlPHKAXQwjgSumH2wltWdmsQkaFjePYItGAWXs7j7FdEgYN-2BRJCphE-2FbZw49DwZfSqX2581nNNXrh3CEiChneeh1QOZ8UkAQ-3D-3D7c9T_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXCgThiACirau7ckUo8bQbzlGNJ4YwG1fe36qyeYWV7uFcOWJ39xS2YUJXLOBvXdcrmVcmjox8r8v9JH9UuqwJw8qCo-2BMSnDOvVhcqcjLG3LxCU4E5mw4N-2BVrFMeW7xZVQZvaXaray-2BzCe4-2B9zCPlgDsJsDTQrP3REjYRyJTSxgzA-3D-3D), Jul 7) | Both on sell signals; "don't buy the dip until the dip stops dipping" |
| TSM (TSMC) | Bull | Guy Adami, Halftime; Market Mondays | "All roads lead to Taiwan Semi"; most predictable of the semis, you pay for capacity, not spot prices |
| Semi-cap: AMAT, LRCX, KLA | Bull | Stephanie Link, Money Rehab; Stacey Rasgon | "It doesn't matter who wins", everyone needs the tools; more chips, more wafers, more equipment |
| Power/infra: VRT, GEV, PWR, ETN, CEG, VST, CCJ | Bull | Stephanie Link; Follow the Money | ~34% average backlog growth; GE Vernova sold out on power through 2028; power is the new bottleneck |
| Inference: MediaTek, Cerebras, Etched (private) | Bull | Limitless (Jul 7) | Nvidia GPUs only 30-40% utilized in inference; MediaTek +180% YTD; asymmetric bet on the next moat |

Directional calls above are the views expressed by the named speakers on their podcasts, not recommendations.

---

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