# Strip Out the Accounting and the AI Earnings Boom Shrinks - The AI Capex Tracker - Week of July 13, 2026

> The AI Capex Tracker for the week of July 13, 2026. Named macro strategists put real arithmetic to the AI-earnings bear case, a record SK Hynix listing lands, and AMD passes Intel in data-center revenue for the first time.

## The AI Capex Tracker

### Week of July 13, 2026: Strip Out the Accounting and the AI Earnings Boom Shrinks

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## TL;DR

- **The bears had the better weekend, and they finally showed their arithmetic.** On *RiskReversal Pod*, macro heavyweight Peter Boockvar scrubbed the numbers going into earnings season: S&P 500 profits are tracking up ~28% year-over-year, but strip out "other income" (the paper gains tech giants book when their stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic get marked up) and it's ~17%; strip out semiconductors too and it's mid-single digits. His co-guest, Gavekal's Louis-Vincent Gave, notes chips are now roughly a fifth of the entire global stock market, up from 2%. ([RiskReversal Pod, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOjLVh7H437lztfkACmmi1cKyGr-2FZF72gsvizsoOnDeApm1KG8reLxksol82bdhEYLisDVAzYw1IZqv-2FrL9eKAPcQSd-2Fd64KksjACXiLlgVg-3D-3DWGOx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhNeC1jLQQ1g3rZYy-2B336Ou9VXbx-2FZuKzBeuhvPgGlEnf-2FKcD9aHPnWGdtFMQlLzGPx998zSuTdmCQBO1SPsc-2BM83778BOuRAio2WGD1vI6-2BdQkdITHFIYsH-2FQSQfA7DmGA-3D-3D))

- **The shovels keep winning, and there's a new one to buy this week.** Micron's trailing free cash flow is up ~879% to $26B and it just raised its US factory pledge to $250B through 2035; meanwhile SK Hynix is launching a **$26.5B US listing, the second-largest stock offering ever and roughly seven times oversubscribed.** ([Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DS9P8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhAsCDEmgqkci7-2B2Ucl70ltGvD-2BUGJzVHy4gfYpzsBfes4Xe83eGQUvXl2ZdNDmzxw6f7rj4XRuKdJvcSqfKCU4ufll1QY9i88KoaHBgv3Ua3FG0TkTNMSok6x467loj8Dw-3D-3D); [Schwab Network, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxtaxGQkZdwtnOARlUBMbI0yOkoVyAgqC8HgqYn5CPQSeHLS5SY-2FskztAITW2tyDqIkHI0loyiqfp-2BY4yE8IWz4V-2BlUw7tGCMxuskzZEfDyA-3D-3DNIoC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhFhiVB6OkO1Gz71rgQdckkwnyDgOzSeRByKEpI2M-2FL0FK5-2BxKo6MswglaTqKXEwkn368X0yx6gnf4R-2FFmhWVoR0Q4i0Fkggbu0i9T7Hrj3wBt0ftl-2BBRddmPG8onPWo0LA-3D-3D))

- **A milestone flipped, and the demand debate got genuinely two-sided.** AMD out-earned Intel in data-center chips for the first time ever ($5.8B to $5.1B) while Intel fell 21% in seven days. And Meta renting out its spare compute, which last week read as a glut warning, got re-read this weekend as the opposite: Zuckerberg says the rental offers are so high it's a sign compute is still *short*, not surplus. ([Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DC7Iz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhNTaRsKrAr-2BSlOzeDRYf-2Bpqmwnmyo-2ByMEVuaR-2FE7fjq-2Bp9nniHJ0qC1K-2BZQ2J7bSh5RMPkPz7ya8ay8-2FecVthu3HZQE5x8R0u7nDI8sol3SON15j3wmsl7qzDz48CoyvCA-3D-3D); [RenMac, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvuWJrU1VYikli-2FOvFCgAAsTRi5BboqDHfP7UwEtEXKsfdeHT8c2MBMJgdnXkSuy78lay3mYjWnh0eFid4MvCNYEy0cCbdCfmUfEhmbqydjg-3D-3DK2oZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhH1qkMhdYI0vLMpPhZlEzA1WG-2F3fX1Bo8eeNRRNO8PjJYpjXjN7gYjO6AWt9Bb7yicCRu62OgQAtL2EiRPkUt6peYG1tp1v8I9wo38IXn-2Be-2B7axcHzYAYYHW2IeeSWRGRg-3D-3D))

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## What's new

Two things to know up front. First, this is a Monday recap, so it sweeps Friday evening plus the weekend. Second, the specialist chip-roadmap shows (Nvidia's Rubin, AMD's Helios) and the power-grid operators were quiet these three days, no fresh operator commentary cleared the bar. What filled the gap was a chorus of macro strategists and one veteran technician making the most detailed bear case we've heard in weeks. Ranked by where the dollars and the risk actually sit:

**1. The bears stopped hand-waving and started doing the math.**
[RiskReversal Pod, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOjLVh7H437lztfkACmmi1cKyGr-2FZF72gsvizsoOnDeApm1KG8reLxksol82bdhEYLisDVAzYw1IZqv-2FrL9eKAPcQSd-2Fd64KksjACXiLlgVg-3D-3DwJmX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhCEAZM6pUtHDUttKwZMq7-2FdOuyrwmeqUsLyIKRPFKDqV7I-2FmFNQOO5a9SAx3SW2BoSM5fVibDrf6Wje33DhDAX1cOXzwCXQbbImfmFi4CTYLwiTQK3okQvFnaI-2F5nJyItw-3D-3D), hosts Dan Nathan and Guy Adami with guests **Louis-Vincent Gave** (founder of research house Gavekal) and **Peter Boockvar** (veteran macro investor). Both are named strategists, not anonymous pundits.

This is the episode to sit with before earnings season opens Tuesday. Boockvar's core point: the headline that "AI earnings are booming" is partly an accounting illusion. The fastest-growing line in corporate profits over the past three years has been "other income", the paper gains a company books when a startup it owns raises money at a higher valuation. As Boockvar put it: *"I invest in Anthropic at $100 billion valuation. Now it's a trillion dollars. Even though I haven't realized it, I still have to book it in my earnings."* Do the subtraction and Q2's ~28% profit growth becomes ~17% without that other income, and mid-single digits once you also remove the chipmakers.

He's equally blunt on the spending itself. The hyperscalers have blown through their free cash flow and are now leaning on debt, and the leases they're signing to fill data centers are, in his words, "essentially debt," some running 30 years. The comforting story that they spend hard for three years and then coast on profits is wrong, he argues, because the maintenance spending never stops: *"Having to upgrade the technology and the new Nvidia chip, that's hugely expensive. The maintenance CapEx and the depreciation expense, there's no rainbow in year four here."* Oracle, he notes, is spending essentially 100% of its revenue on capex.

Gave zooms out to the market-structure risk. Semiconductors are now about a fifth of the entire global equity index, up from 2% not long ago, and chips are historically the most cyclical, most capital-hungry industry there is. In Asia it's even more extreme: TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung together make up ~40% of the regional benchmark, so fund managers who legally can't hold that much in three names are forced to buy weaker chip stocks as stand-ins. That's fine on the way up. On the way down, Gave warns, "there's going to be no market" for those second-rate proxies. He also flags something that rhymes with 2000 and 2007: the gap between reported S&P 500 earnings and the earnings the government actually collects taxes on is at a record, historically a sign of "financial engineering of all kinds." *Why it matters:* if even part of this is right, the "cheap" Mag 7 (trading around 24x forward, per Yardeni) is cheap on an E that's been flattered, exactly the wrong setup going into a season where 63 of the first 111 companies have already guided higher.

**2. The depreciation debate got a concrete number, and it has Michael Burry's fingerprints on it.**
[WSJ's Take On the Week, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj6udVsAinmkWllViwsZxipQKITITNekmL0vlRncrLNUtz-2FTS6yr3q7-2BbsfHc2IZ14q6tOlK4w-2Brn0ym5Voqt3Xwm12cu-2FlFGda6Ur1QdTjAw-3D-3DUSV7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhJy80G5Ckf3xzRHHmb-2FRyfu-2F-2BpxApPHKi6lyxQxNhQNiVNUujG9a-2FNG8PR-2BHEKUjI37gJSAInyz4K3-2FDm-2FFhw1X7Tx3O3-2BPGY7CGoKxpfli4MkP3xo6WGe9esYOHlOMBCA-3D-3D), WSJ hosts with returning earnings guest Christine.

Same theme, different angle, and this is the one with a hard figure. When a company buys an AI chip, that shows up instantly as revenue and profit for Nvidia, but for the buyer it's a capital asset that bleeds out of earnings slowly, as "depreciation," over whatever useful life management picks. Change that assumption and you change the profit. The example on the show: **Meta just extended the assumed life of its servers from 5 years to 5.5, and that alone knocked $2.3 billion off its depreciation expense**, flattering the bottom line. Michael Burry (of *The Big Short*) has been loudly warning that the industry is understating how fast AI chips actually go obsolete. The guest's broader worry, echoing WSJ columnists, is a "circular valuation loop": mega-caps book profits from their stakes in unlisted AI labs, which raise at ever-higher valuations partly because the mega-caps keep buying their services. *Why it matters:* the fix, as the hosts note, is to watch cash flow, not the P/E, depreciation games show up in earnings but not in free cash flow. Any hyperscaler quietly stretching useful lives this quarter is a tell.

**3. Memory keeps compounding, and a $26.5B new listing lands this week.**
[Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DpgVG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhOaeDBT5gcSszY2eXg-2Fib7UUbQZaFw5W-2BJXV-2FJ344LpcjVZiDH-2F1dlghqi1sl-2BMx28ddP6aauN0OSl2xQdokYex74GuSkSnkYfYpmWkhU-2BLBi6KmqXJejuT3junKK3RsQA-3D-3D) (an AI-generated cash-flow review show, used here only for the hard, checkable numbers) and [Schwab Network, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxtaxGQkZdwtnOARlUBMbI0yOkoVyAgqC8HgqYn5CPQSeHLS5SY-2FskztAITW2tyDqIkHI0loyiqfp-2BY4yE8IWz4V-2BlUw7tGCMxuskzZEfDyA-3D-3DMY92_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhMyP9JxUfRhKqVqCXzJkMAWHl-2FPCySMIG7dnQRVuqE2qZOEVy94D8FTcBTYmdWt0J-2Fm9nITJiCXIzr-2BSK7J5vu3eAIbD-2Fh5NRyJ0JI7nLX1Pl3tfrUWduK3-2F8UQzgLh4dA-3D-3D) (anchors Diane King Hall and Nicole).

Micron is the clearest picks-and-shovels winner right now: trailing free cash flow of about **$26 billion, up roughly 879% from a year ago**, and management just raised its US manufacturing pledge to **$250 billion through 2035** (up $50B from earlier this year), poured first concrete at its new fab in Clay, New York more than a quarter ahead of schedule, and put another $3B into the domestic supply chain. The read: this isn't a company acting like a one-quarter price spike is about to end. And there's a fresh way to play memory, SK Hynix is bringing a **$26.5 billion US listing** (a foreign-share ADR), which the Schwab anchors called the second-largest equity offering ever behind SpaceX, running about **seven times oversubscribed** at roughly $149 a share. For context, that dwarfs Saudi Aramco's $25.6B in 2019 and Alibaba's $25B in 2014. As one anchor summed up the tape: the in-favor corner of the market is memory; the out-of-favor corner is software. *Why it matters:* the SK Hynix deal both validates the HBM supercycle and drains liquidity, a big new float can pull capital out of the incumbents (Micron, Samsung) even as it confirms the theme.

**4. The chip pecking order flipped: AMD passed Intel where it counts.**
[Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DXV-P_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhICRlTalptH4qFjAggPwi0tDqqCxP6F-2BtXutulqoxl7lPBeFAI1gpG2bHiyt5YZWt4P-2FjbaIp-2Fl2wOc6x6W-2FYn5Z4G-2BUJBYWaE9-2BiulDuhKEn4CXaEjJ5C6XnGZlVmRLuQ-3D-3D).

For the first time ever, **AMD reported more data-center revenue than Intel, $5.8 billion to $5.1 billion.** Intel's problem is manufacturing: reports surfaced that its next-generation 18A and 18AP production won't reach profitable yields until late 2026 at the earliest, more likely 2027, and the stock fell nearly 10% on July 7 and another ~8% on July 8, a 21% drop in seven trading days, with free cash flow negative on ~$13B of trailing capex that hasn't yet produced a profitable chip. Separately, Apple and Broadcom extended their chip partnership through 2031 (~$30B, more than 15 billion US-made chips, a $1.5B Fort Collins expansion), but Broadcom got downgraded to hold by Erste Group, whose knock is that at ~35x forward earnings against Nvidia's ~22x, the "certainty" is already priced in. *Why it matters:* the AMD/Intel crossover is a durable share-shift, not a quarter's noise; and the Broadcom multiple gap is the cleanest statement yet of how much custom-silicon optimism is already in the price.

**5. The demand side is still short, not glutted, but a technician says the top is forming anyway.**
[RenMac, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvuWJrU1VYikli-2FOvFCgAAsTRi5BboqDHfP7UwEtEXKsfdeHT8c2MBMJgdnXkSuy78lay3mYjWnh0eFid4MvCNYEy0cCbdCfmUfEhmbqydjg-3D-3DTsjP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhGaZ4ScGINOdEbV-2BctfoAFe41twZAoO0kVuY00HvOIY01YyhnwFTV2mJ8CJLdhbzHJFIO1QNPe4iXyppiuhCS6DXi5f56QL4cFqd-2B7-2FyxeA9ZpYqSuGaNfhy6v8-2FF2ZzRg-3D-3D), RenMac's **Jeff DeGraff** (a technician with 36 years in the seat), head of economics **Neil Dutta**, and a guest (Alex) fresh off interviewing OpenAI president Greg Brockman.

The bull data point: Brockman told the guest that OpenAI's compute-hungry "agentic" features have maybe 5–10 million active users today against roughly a billion ChatGPT users, so if that behavior spreads, demand goes up by orders of magnitude. And the Meta-renting-compute story got flipped from last week: a Bloomberg interview quoted Zuckerberg saying the rental offers Meta is getting are "so high that it may make sense in some cases to rent out", which RenMac's guest reads as proof compute is still *scarce*, not surplus. The tell is which companies have spare capacity: the ones who can't meet demand (OpenAI, Anthropic) versus the ones whose own AI products haven't taken off (Meta, SpaceX) and so resell.

But two RenMac voices pushed back hard. Dutta, the economist: with no visible wave of layoffs *and* no visible productivity boom, "someone out there is losing money on all of this", and unlike the 1990s tech boom, the price of the enabling gear (chips, compute) is going *up*, not down, which is not how real productivity booms usually look. DeGraff, the technician, published a note called "Anatomy of a Semiconductor Top": his bubble indicator (a doubling of the index off a high within two years) fired in semiconductors back in April, and also in Korea and Taiwan; the momentum factor in tech hit an **84% spread, a record**; and in 2000, semiconductors peaked two full quarters *before* the first earnings cuts arrived. His tell: Samsung reported good numbers this week and the stock fell, "no amount of good news can really power them higher" at peak margins. Notably, DeGraff calls himself "a very big AI bull", his point is that being right on the technology and right on the stocks are two different things. *Why it matters:* this is the rare episode with a bull and a bear looking at the same facts; the actionable read is that the demand story can be intact while the stocks still roll over.

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## The debate

Steel-manning both sides of the $700B-plus 2026 hyperscaler capex thesis, the argument that has "dwarfed all other factors" in this market:

**Bull, the spending is rational, and demand is still outrunning supply.** OpenAI's Brockman frames agentic AI as a demand explosion still in its first innings (5–10M power users out of a billion). Meta is fielding rental bids for its compute so rich that Zuckerberg would rather sell capacity than hoard it, a shortage signal, not a glut. Memory and storage are sold out with record margins, and Micron is committing a quarter-trillion dollars of its own money through 2035 because it doesn't believe the cycle ends soon. Even RenMac's DeGraff, calling the technical top, insists he's "a very big AI bull" on the underlying technology. The build is funded, expensively, via debt and leases, but funded. ([RenMac, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvuWJrU1VYikli-2FOvFCgAAsTRi5BboqDHfP7UwEtEXKsfdeHT8c2MBMJgdnXkSuy78lay3mYjWnh0eFid4MvCNYEy0cCbdCfmUfEhmbqydjg-3D-3DMTxs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhKoBf9r6al2Gk5U7s0DALgxIHt2rGV-2Fsg2HPLQzLQB7Vxh9-2F8-2FkAbpjuecHC-2BxPtKzN8rS79pKXaqbgrZY8A8qiKf5-2B8ifQ6-2FozFuGzYshgaV5ytuzalfzepxZduRBLPFA-3D-3D); [Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DWqDE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhE1jVXL-2FgQMChcWZEFOTTpHi-2BSFWwzB15ItgnWiZGHTc78X-2FFr6y9UOc9vQEFDCY3cHGcs6mcx2mlGvkv5oLba2CxzvBmyRukacqfzPlGJf0GtCq-2BjzKW3bOroTGq-2BVThw-3D-3D))

**Bear, the earnings are flattered, the funding is fragile, and the technicals are cracking.** Boockvar's scrub says the profit growth is half accounting (other income) and chips; the leases are hidden debt with no "year four" relief. Gave says the market is dangerously concentrated in the most cyclical industry there is, with forced buyers propping up weak names. Dutta says the productivity payoff that would justify the spend simply isn't in the data, so someone is losing money. DeGraff's charts say a top is forming regardless of the story. And the most extreme voice, crypto-macro investor **Arthur Hayes** on *Thinking Crypto*, ties it into a credit warning: the loans financing GPUs are written on a 5-to-6-year life, but a GPU is "pretty much obsolete for AI within two years," and if buyers defect to Chinese models that cost "one-fifth, one-tenth" as much, the cash flows underpinning those loans "become spurious and it becomes a credit event… bigger than subprime." He argues AI capex will surpass the 19th-century railroad build-out as a share of global GDP, and points to the railroad crashes of 1873, 1893 and 1907 as the template. Treat Hayes as a contrarian pundit, not an operator, but the GPU depreciation mismatch is the same worry Burry and Boockvar are circling from the mainstream side. ([RiskReversal Pod, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOjLVh7H437lztfkACmmi1cKyGr-2FZF72gsvizsoOnDeApm1KG8reLxksol82bdhEYLisDVAzYw1IZqv-2FrL9eKAPcQSd-2Fd64KksjACXiLlgVg-3D-3DCk59_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhNuARvkOcv2NvGlcNzeSz-2FwIaxnKPrg5Fks3OU-2BHaflumefnutu2EsdVFv7lFXXM1LcYOtSfCHBMVqL5jQGiTya7tg5Xa57WmC7fUWA6o8BkLZjB8SSqzL9w-2BquQdomicA-3D-3D); [Thinking Crypto, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLbLnH3TiOftz1phZHpBg7S5ZJVOcpZw9DChsGEUMMIQU0sX6qWTjX8uqSSkJeSwWXy5SxFU4OqYPIhASd-2Bv1aJ8NNzi-2B6anqUvbKmYRcL7Q-3D-3DdaCj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhCwJtc0HT1G-2BKQoAg-2B9N28MaVgz8pQ3umURHvd6iRQ43rT1x8hdOfbgogyx3QEv7Jgu5nYid3z7nR5cA0gOsm0vX5U3mfE265x50ZThyySM6qhgkiv-2FhUZjHj3c3JHBWEg-3D-3D); [Excess Returns, Jul 11](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2F3CcKn2UjMFByX0XiZMJmkJUp3Wmbz-2BZ1WqUuD9rzGp2vhi1Rs-2BwoAeBtGJASVVUF46XafethSTUOHzw1IjHJLhCPhhrgWcLhbOifGZRJkQ-3D-3DRffZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhCyEMSgOYrv2OEWqR7ollaTxXasdZojKQgzMSzNnKvOnt4jlFXE-2BJnDVAZCn8bBCTzNxurXebNLgYeDildTdZTrDIpd1OryY5NyYzu2RTAsanU-2FZWJWmOkj-2F2F2mvXLTow-3D-3D); [The Loonie Hour, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhoEs7zMF3kmjiE0K7zmtTh2cfJ9iKvBbrb6vkcJ2dmkjPG0mU-2BGM0Dl4uKFyAZig3Jub4j-2Bgg0hKo7AmG9-2F7y3uUJCbvfX0E9UmHEBhtmeKg-3D-3D6zWa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhECHXQGGvGGM-2BU1fMOYTcUdwRzTp6x20ULgNYC1AoqgHd65u4dH6EUsL9AOCQr3buucOoTV3j7HZv9o6-2FxzRkwHaHzZor3uvb72skT2-2FGyU8rCPpoizilZ-2Fon4aBFpO7Uw-3D-3D))

> "There's no rainbow in year four here.", Peter Boockvar on hyperscaler maintenance capex and depreciation, *RiskReversal Pod*, Jul 10

The wider caution chorus was loud this weekend: strategist Jim Paulsen went through "33 charts that turned him cautious" and flagged a possible 10–20% correction on frothy AI valuations reminiscent of the dot-com peak ([Excess Returns, Jul 11](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2F3CcKn2UjMFByX0XiZMJmkJUp3Wmbz-2BZ1WqUuD9rzGp2vhi1Rs-2BwoAeBtGJASVVUF46XafethSTUOHzw1IjHJLhCPhhrgWcLhbOifGZRJkQ-3D-3DgQA3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhL34GPGTIr-2B-2BfYz5OJ8bsBEKTEJjywVO68QGziqxzEfJhxrQMjq7asNaIQOijUJbp-2BVOFq9NqcIFOQzxc5Mdw0jDeodZloPUuHOgSpFVqyr4Fb0h0-2BS5Y3mUUNFTyspKbg-3D-3D)), and macro trader Kevin Muir laid out a bearish view on AI valuations and market concentration ([The Loonie Hour, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhoEs7zMF3kmjiE0K7zmtTh2cfJ9iKvBbrb6vkcJ2dmkjPG0mU-2BGM0Dl4uKFyAZig3Jub4j-2Bgg0hKo7AmG9-2F7y3uUJCbvfX0E9UmHEBhtmeKg-3D-3DbD-a_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhKDm6TJsat5Yo3LeB4-2FwT0bZxtfAlYxnf1IZimcvfFhJ5I6wnQqWv3CkamRDfMP1b6c1DB0GO0jLGs-2BTcvvAUSblFWXRnlxsBEia080C3P1-2BPTkf66To86-2B2uxbX-2FRRFEA-3D-3D)).

**Sell signals to watch:** any hyperscaler *cutting* forward capex (none has); companies stretching the assumed useful life of their chips/servers to flatter earnings (Meta already did, $2.3B); the gap between reported earnings and cash flow widening; a financed neo-cloud or AI lab unable to pay, forcing a lender or Nvidia to write down or de-book revenue; Chinese open-source models visibly winning on price and pulling pricing down; and, DeGraff's technical tell, chip stocks reacting *badly* to good news, as Samsung just did.

---

## Stocks in play

**NVDA.** *Bull:* still the default AI chip and, at ~22x forward, cheaper than Broadcom's ~35x. *Bear:* the stock has essentially gone nowhere for two years despite the story (DeGraff), and the loudest new bear framing, Hayes's "GPUs obsolete in two years, financed over five to six", targets Nvidia's demand and vendor-financing directly. *Next:* Q2 earnings in August; this week's Q2 season and Thursday's TSMC print set the tone. ([RenMac, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvuWJrU1VYikli-2FOvFCgAAsTRi5BboqDHfP7UwEtEXKsfdeHT8c2MBMJgdnXkSuy78lay3mYjWnh0eFid4MvCNYEy0cCbdCfmUfEhmbqydjg-3D-3Dzgxg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhDU1NjB-2Bdo3UrlYRWrYhw9L3XnHwcUddnsMhscIN2teu8ioKm6EbLNcVZFQhJeGgG1GIYcT7vq5TE0fxfM8-2BhIUMl92Fpowh0Czwd84kxciwe41hX-2B8BpIRX8CG27kDcMA-3D-3D); [Thinking Crypto, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLbLnH3TiOftz1phZHpBg7S5ZJVOcpZw9DChsGEUMMIQU0sX6qWTjX8uqSSkJeSwWXy5SxFU4OqYPIhASd-2Bv1aJ8NNzi-2B6anqUvbKmYRcL7Q-3D-3DVBTC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhFWWWW2k1nRfNuJ2Jyq9PD4T7bREQ4aIICkkJ96qhEsPYM90xzd64iva6LxhTmPCvqA7n27LEV3KGPtAWM10LfkMBfo8IKGm7G04HsNYb5TWg-2BiVbUBN0Px1aZdQJebwKw-3D-3D))

**AVGO.** *Bull:* the custom-silicon arms dealer just locked in Apple through 2031 (~$30B, 15B-plus US-made chips), long-dated, high-visibility demand. *Bear:* downgraded to hold by Erste Group, whose point is that ~35x forward vs Nvidia's ~22x already prices in the certainty. *Next:* custom-ASIC design wins; no fresh operator color this cycle. ([Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3Do-wH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhEIBaNLyVSbHcxtGokSJnfaweVmcKu1xSV7Le4e8QTOo54LHHYA-2F6Hq2OQuZIWs71A5UoOJ1nHrUHJtrOkedxy8KxwTKk6FsRhl5R1bMdBIR-2FLfe20qsTr58fwra6VF6zQ-3D-3D))

**AMD.** *Bull:* passed Intel in data-center revenue for the first time ever ($5.8B vs $5.1B), a genuine share-shift, not a headline. *Bear:* the MI450X/Helios roadmap is still a show-me story, and there was no fresh roadmap color this weekend. *Next:* AMD Advancing AI Day, July 2026. ([Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3Dhofw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhMF1dU-2Bu1oZ2jeS7TLS5VpYuyXhz2iymC7H-2FPpU0epBgmHuTZL0EiZP9P2WZ-2FydxWhNghhnHofWC2TT-2FwJEZupsCc-2Bdof3-2FxBOLb5hk6bSIQ9P-2BUKjc-2FFDf9XfcN88HmzQ-3D-3D))

**MSFT.** *Bull:* reportedly weighing adding DeepSeek's model to Copilot alongside OpenAI and Anthropic, a cost-discipline move that reads well if AI bills are the problem. *Bear:* software is the out-of-favor side of the trade right now (Schwab), and Microsoft sits in the hyperscaler group Boockvar describes as having "rolled over." *Next:* FY26 Q4 capex, late July. ([RiskReversal Pod, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOjLVh7H437lztfkACmmi1cKyGr-2FZF72gsvizsoOnDeApm1KG8reLxksol82bdhEYLisDVAzYw1IZqv-2FrL9eKAPcQSd-2Fd64KksjACXiLlgVg-3D-3DYoYa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhF952yhv7NBJ7HBdAxhkRKflJ6-2BelqMTkYlNPYC-2F0fVSc021kS7CmnAoxTIISVhuSabzvcStgAbYrhIVQAjGpXr3CkFLIgOg3Bn-2F2v8tTw4cTygPdeAQiHPmwe2lOtpEXQ-3D-3D); [Schwab Network, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxtaxGQkZdwtnOARlUBMbI0yOkoVyAgqC8HgqYn5CPQSeHLS5SY-2FskztAITW2tyDqIkHI0loyiqfp-2BY4yE8IWz4V-2BlUw7tGCMxuskzZEfDyA-3D-3D0OaB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhC3XUNhusTs7UqJHA7OEKzlKsJrT2Li5sWT4O0oJCXjLORITFgb-2BgmOV2SVKdJgm36YIujjQ8ZNVR6ATm37EvPcVe7GoRIsciMr-2FH2uhJgC-2ByUUiGKoqn3xYw6iVJzauHw-3D-3D))

**GOOGL.** *Bull:* vertically integrated with its own TPU silicon and, per the RiskReversal hosts, the consensus "safe" hyperscaler long. *Bear:* it's part of the debt-and-equity issuance wave funding the build, a sign the capex now outruns internal cash. *Next:* July capex guide. ([RiskReversal Pod, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOjLVh7H437lztfkACmmi1cKyGr-2FZF72gsvizsoOnDeApm1KG8reLxksol82bdhEYLisDVAzYw1IZqv-2FrL9eKAPcQSd-2Fd64KksjACXiLlgVg-3D-3DsVW-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhH8TNbduq16n-2BlF3PITYT8RdLG1sRRJP1j8dX3pnSBprdYVpYtd6JO-2BRl1PtVxnjqrtqWlpPUYoYeMYMa694UzlIfAKi9iqz00EjfDhVZQNAxsnlEdTjVbIERYv7NHjFXg-3D-3D))

**AMZN.** *Bull:* still committed and can fund almost anything at scale. *Bear:* the clearest example of capex outrunning cash, guidance went from ~$100–120B into the year to ~$180B, debt up roughly $100B, with another ~$25B being raised, and Boockvar's "no rainbow in year four" maintenance-capex warning applies most directly here. *Next:* late-July earnings. ([RiskReversal Pod, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiOjLVh7H437lztfkACmmi1cKyGr-2FZF72gsvizsoOnDeApm1KG8reLxksol82bdhEYLisDVAzYw1IZqv-2FrL9eKAPcQSd-2Fd64KksjACXiLlgVg-3D-3DrK0K_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhFgzqzqzhyZqQXPOJ7E4a-2F4XndCJ6YDiK8Zp27Z03-2FkD-2BdaxZvFPcucmmM3Qocw2yEuR-2BXLrwJFI36IWwyH4UCs2JwWYBsuooeOCULiOa0rHlVMGysHIfBX0Qjt0tfQaAA-3D-3D))

**META.** *Bull:* the compute-rental bids are so rich Zuckerberg would rather sell capacity than hoard it, a pricing-power/shortage signal, and its useful-life change freed up $2.3B. *Bear:* that same useful-life extension is precisely the depreciation flattery the bears are flagging, and RenMac's read is that Meta is reselling because its own AI products "haven't taken off." *Next:* late-July earnings; watch the depreciation footnote. ([RenMac, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvuWJrU1VYikli-2FOvFCgAAsTRi5BboqDHfP7UwEtEXKsfdeHT8c2MBMJgdnXkSuy78lay3mYjWnh0eFid4MvCNYEy0cCbdCfmUfEhmbqydjg-3D-3DfZfs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhNjTm7AhgzpyJv38V3M6hX1OP-2FesooWRn1sAHU50dgQfmqyYlQLxrIk9tn2hMsP3dz1IAQ0GWNbnQ-2Fg92deNUd26qkHCmv1X68sunC1RQB1M-2FvQ9zKF8Pc4xnFsuW7DW3Q-3D-3D); [WSJ's Take On the Week, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj6udVsAinmkWllViwsZxipQKITITNekmL0vlRncrLNUtz-2FTS6yr3q7-2BbsfHc2IZ14q6tOlK4w-2Brn0ym5Voqt3Xwm12cu-2FlFGda6Ur1QdTjAw-3D-3D0pZW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhC25yQoqPFZDb-2FWvgQCgdRyYzibSZXtNBmgc7FGG9q0TFXKduEbade4zU1LWfB9HWBu8X6w3TqUwUmUzW8LAVlXckFe5S-2FwWCZNarqGuCs4qLwbf74v6iZ9MKQwcW-2BE-2BOA-3D-3D))

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## Read-throughs

- **Memory / HBM, own the shovels, but respect the cycle.** Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, plus SanDisk, Kioxia and Chinese up-and-comer CXMT are the group; memory is the market's favorite corner and software its least. The SK Hynix $26.5B listing both confirms the supercycle and adds a big new float that can pull capital away from the incumbents. The risk, per DeGraff: these are at peak gross margins historically, and Samsung's good-news-stock-falls reaction is what a top looks like. Most actionable: keep the memory exposure, size it knowing the whipsaw lands here first. ([Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DvsCo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhAA0-2FJlTiAczWtMnI-2FDGxikUdzVamR9NYlflLL7Ohw8LPOgZw7RsFCFUZ89wUK-2FWLGy4cCH603bt-2FBiwY3Tk9twBkrc2tOZ2R61DANZ3gvrghy92R96Pr0wpK-2F2e8AkEuA-3D-3D); [Schwab Network, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxtaxGQkZdwtnOARlUBMbI0yOkoVyAgqC8HgqYn5CPQSeHLS5SY-2FskztAITW2tyDqIkHI0loyiqfp-2BY4yE8IWz4V-2BlUw7tGCMxuskzZEfDyA-3D-3DjeHa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhEHBHnYvSBmKgned0Qmu38JAcg6JeQjzmlRMltz0rDCTP68-2FSuGcHzVYuGgiCJjLfmD-2FurbLSLwS0otF59Bvu4Cqlfy8n3-2BzwaTOmQfcGnWhnbEApWKQ7SgbkGS07Mza6w-3D-3D); [RenMac, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvuWJrU1VYikli-2FOvFCgAAsTRi5BboqDHfP7UwEtEXKsfdeHT8c2MBMJgdnXkSuy78lay3mYjWnh0eFid4MvCNYEy0cCbdCfmUfEhmbqydjg-3D-3Dmjv0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhHAVy8otrMDMchUEf7gEtmAH2wPIDAs-2FNzyihbW7K-2B-2Bs8vlaurRNhhvq8bbZwSNeL3c-2BtXfPoqK68zWxSKMbM-2B-2BPUtiCZ8gzC7NtObjwPD-2B3OrIJuAJXCZq3UExqPCGLFw-3D-3D))

- **Logic / foundry, the crossover and the tell.** AMD over Intel in data-center revenue is the durable share-shift; Intel's whole thesis now hangs on its 18A process yielding profitably on a 2027 timeline. The single most important print this week is **TSMC on Thursday**, the real test of whether the supercycle extends beyond memory to the rest of the chip complex, or stays a memory-only story. ([Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DH1Pl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhOUq7NZjy285xJ4H4b42D-2Fu6URaK2mydy7ASdu4z7skSJjEOG8Kmj3DOkqAxQl8Q33UqYsDqtmWXHFvTVjGIsVJ6aAMM3UFbRc6TxmdEOutd5JmU-2FttrVX0QqnQ5uJTiOw-3D-3D))

- **Optics / networking (Marvell, Astera Labs, Credo, Coherent, Lumentum).** Quiet on the podcasts this cycle, no fresh operator color. Carry the positions into earnings season.

- **Power / thermal / utilities / nuclear (VRT, ETN, Vistra, Constellation, Talen).** Also quiet on operators these three days, no ERCOT, SB6, or turbine-backlog color cleared the bar, so treat the power beat as "no new signal" today. The one relevant voice was a warning: veteran investor **George Noble** (ex-Fidelity Overseas) on *Bloomberg Talks* said that "if the AI trade comes unstuck, and I believe it will, a lot of those derivative [power] plays are going to take on water," and disclosed he's been short nuclear-startup Oklo for a year, calling it "one of the biggest frauds out there." Separately, NextEra filed to absorb Dominion in a ~$67B deal (S-4 filed July 9) even as NextEra's own free cash flow is down ~65% year-over-year, a reminder that even the utility winners are stretching balance sheets to chase this load. Most actionable: prefer real backlog and dispatchable/behind-the-meter capacity over story-stock power names if the broader trade wobbles. ([Bloomberg Talks, Jul 10](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjID5Dr-2BhtA-2FaosqLMY8Dke9UQbw3WlzBi5uxsVGyBrSCaO18RO3K4Xlu5-2BQ-2FFin8vuVVqMeCb2OSz0-2FJrFkz3W8a-2F5VZCVDKQXA-2B8WDWdneQ-3D-3DAbaK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhI-2F6LmUB5hiBzqR4JEFgG5U8UDu246L7uG5RU1YHIHkR1f5bP6xZiuNPJBZBlWMjWPvRo9iKR6glCaPv5pX8tyuFHmjNjoRgBlfBisOFCqfflTkHiRYQmjPtviD0C8L8Ew-3D-3D); [Telltales, Jul 12](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglLa4ozwgytckekvaOORWtkztz7Ve11LlfF-2B7VAicAcCMG8r1bYHJki22fC2pEdEuMAfvhSSYi-2Bv6-2Fd0f1Sq4RAxvV1ZZ5s2OAFTrtCqjE8w-3D-3DmLOY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXZRF9wo8pyYA06rJ6HcUYGSHEONR4qDuP-2BUWOtuxIEhG-2FcRHqAOS8Oay2C5eVJY-2B0SCNaPCJVq8XmsnMI992CQrpkZ-2BrDEjCLvZCkojctvYoRcuSkdPDYBMIaPVTufFisSKJ-2ButwKqWU59wkVijv-2F8rhkSzzK5ZWQbKlDYkA30-2Fw-3D-3D))

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## What changed vs last issue

Friday's issue (Jul 10, "Samsung out-earns Nvidia. The shovels won H1.") was about the rotation into memory and power becoming a first-half fact. This weekend, two things moved:

- **The bear case leveled up from vibes to arithmetic.** Last issue's skepticism leaned on Jim Chanos's credit note and Mike Green's plumbing argument. This weekend two *named* macro strategists, Louis-Vincent Gave and Peter Boockvar, put actual subtraction on the table (Q2 profits ~28% headline → ~17% ex-other-income → mid-single digits ex-semis), and RenMac's Jeff DeGraff added a technical "semiconductor top" framework (bubble indicator fired in April; record 84% momentum spread; semis topped two quarters before earnings cuts in 2000). The critique is now quantified, not just asserted.

- **The depreciation worry got a hard number.** Last issue flagged the concept; this weekend it has a figure, Meta's server useful-life extension (5 → 5.5 years) freed **$2.3B** of depreciation, plus Michael Burry's name attached to it. Watch for more of this in the coming prints.

- **The memory winner rotated from a headline to a tradable event.** Friday it was Samsung out-earning Nvidia. Today it's Micron's cash machine ($26B FCF, +879%; $250B US pledge through 2035) and a live, seven-times-oversubscribed **SK Hynix $26.5B US listing**, the second-largest offering ever.

- **A new milestone: AMD passed Intel** in data-center revenue for the first time ($5.8B vs $5.1B), with Intel down 21% in seven days on 18A delays. That crossover wasn't in last issue.

- **The Meta-compute signal got re-argued.** Last issue read Meta renting out compute as a demand-blink (a glut tell, one of our sell signals firing). This weekend RenMac flipped it: Zuckerberg says the rental offers are so high it points to a *shortage*. The demand debate is genuinely two-sided now, not one-way.

- **Deltas on the big numbers:** 2026 hyperscaler capex still anchored around $700B (Gave), now framed against McKinsey's ~$6.5 trillion cumulative through 2030; Amazon's own guide moved from ~$100–120B to ~$180B with ~$100B more debt. No hyperscaler-capex operator color and no fresh ERCOT/power queue print this cycle, so those two counters are unchanged from Friday.

Next prints: Q2 earnings season opens Tuesday (JPMorgan and Goldman), with ASML and Morgan Stanley Wednesday and a stacked Thursday (TSMC, Netflix, UnitedHealth); TSMC is the tell on whether the supercycle is memory-only. Then late-July hyperscaler results (MSFT, AMZN, META) that test whether the capex is finally buying visible revenue, and whether anyone stretches a depreciation schedule to help the number.

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