# Honda Quits US EVs as Tesla Robotaxi Scales - The Auto Disruption - Week of July 20, 2026

> Auto-industry podcast intelligence for the week of July 13 to 20, 2026. Honda confirmed it is exiting the US EV market, Volkswagen floated up to 50,000 more job cuts, four of six major Chinese automakers guided to first-half losses, and analysts flagged the first hard evidence that Tesla's robotaxi fleet is scaling.

## The Auto Disruption

### Week of July 13–20, 2026: Honda Quits US EVs as Tesla Robotaxi Scales

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Last week the podcasts were arguing about affordability, whether new cars are really too expensive, or just too expensive to finance. This week the conversation hardened into something more consequential: the pullback. Honda confirmed it is walking away from selling electric cars in the United States. Volkswagen's new boss floated cutting tens of thousands more jobs on top of an already historic restructuring. And underneath both stories sat the same engine that has driven this newsletter all summer, a Chinese price war so brutal that it is now hollowing out margins in Europe, in Detroit, and, in a new twist this week, inside China's own champions. Meanwhile, the robot-taxi race quietly hit a real milestone: for the first time, one company's driverless fleet started multiplying fast enough that the people who track it for a living think scaling has actually begun. Here is what operators and the analysts who watch them actually said.

## 1. The pullback is here: Honda quits, Volkswagen digs deeper, and the buyers are still stuck

For two years the story has been that legacy carmakers were *struggling* against cheaper competition and a tough financing market. This week the language shifted from struggle to retreat.

The clearest single event was Honda. On [Daily Tech News Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjHjjMBLpY6SPcd0Hsr3yzTogPVPBe64zaWOZZ-2Fl6C8FrLBGM-2FY1979edx99Z3LnG250-2Bq7-2BsOespHJ2DGBpD0gXt7tfydRCJfJVu0Kt7wPrA-3D-3DWaWi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykerV7F7WBnw1i2iDVTDv82r-2Bqh5sjI7eB50x-2BLniw00cC0V2EDapVWMD3k4oXsv-2Fx-2F0LTJB7v6IHgF649QAF6xBBadJlgNM13tj5ECX8iDBbSI4iOZhiPXeRnwpImOiUMsg-3D-3D) (Jul 17), hosts Jason Howell and Huyen Tue Dao, **pundits**, general tech journalists, reported that "Honda is ending sales of its Prologue electric SUV in the US at the end of the year," which "effectively means that the company is exiting the US EV market for now." What makes that striking is that the Prologue was not a flop: they noted it "ranked as the 6th best-selling EV in the US in 2025… behind the Tesla Model Y, behind the Model 3, but ahead of almost all the others." The trigger, they said, was policy, the decision "follows Honda's cancellation of 3 other upcoming US EVs in March… attributed to the removal of federal EV incentives here in the US by the US president." Honda will keep selling small EVs in Japan and China; it is the US market specifically that it is stepping back from. The hosts placed it in a pattern: "GM… Ford had canceled its own electric SUV in the US, delayed its EV pickup. Stellantis, they restructured, they reduced their EV production in the US… it's unfriendly to EVs here where it didn't used to be."

The number that explains *why* Honda gave up came from an operator. On [Autoline Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgL8S-2BywTpNGCO-2FLuhYyhyuoGS9-2BQkLFZzWz4uHWG8EbDBtHk0rti8B6ScPf2Cs9vSFRTHwkthEUWl-2BfGg7BnkrpydG7cHtiRQ-2BvGpiD1D83w-3D-3DPndO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cyketoilm8GjHFBcwA4uT-2BBmXrTU-2FiiFMMfr56y2-2Bj440aLoNCwEPsU0KQjJ5COni0q-2Fw0yHpg1lvQMmXX8s1W0BiEg1AzACzLZraxjJnN6o1cbeCxxHHV7AahTcUCirnHWMg-3D-3D) (Jul 17), the show replayed comments from **Lance Wolfer, vice president of sales for American Honda**, an **operator**, who said the company is "backing out of the EV segment for now, but [is] not giving up on it." His read on demand: "We don't anticipate the market getting beyond 10% in any kind of hurry. I think that it will grow… But two years ago, I would have told you it was going to get there in a much bigger hurry than it is today." That is the whole retreat in one sentence: the electric future everyone planned for is still coming, just years later than the product plans assumed, and you cannot afford to keep an unprofitable EV in the showroom while you wait.

Volkswagen is the same story at ten times the scale. On [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5nC5STJdXspTNcraCsn73YcXZDwjP-2FI7Rkhes-2FhfxEc7zfKbPSqRe5-2B-2Bj8oR9mvEjr0DQgaIAsVvkoMY4eyMon-2BhBQUCV0gLuSwIrkh-2B0Sw-3D-3Dsd39_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykehVftmVuMY87FHBHhmDsBdYPNWVCX5WbsYsxlphBAFb-2F-2BFdbQrUzJq-2B4gWhEJIi4UhOr5KBD1VUoeDXwE2AZ6FUZDlEdN3Q0tQQzPs2yX4gswFOkoQ52xpNnmqFvC63Zcg-3D-3D) (Jul 18), the hosts (Automotive News **pundits**) reported that CEO Oliver Blume, an **operator**, quoted indirectly, "is preparing for another major round of cost-cutting," on top of the historic restructuring already underway. Blume's own framing: "VW's overhead costs are about 20% higher than its rivals, and closing that gap could mean eliminating as many as 50,000 additional jobs worldwide." One analyst on the show, "Larry," argued even that may not be enough: VW has "almost 70% more employees globally than Toyota does… Toyota makes more vehicles and sells more vehicles globally than what VW Group is… They could cut easily 150,000 workers and still have more workers than Toyota." He also noted VW's track record makes any of this hard to believe: "The last five VW CEOs have all said, we need to cut jobs. And they ended up either not cutting jobs or adding jobs because of the way VW is structured." A companion discussion on [Car Stuff Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiDZvC24HL8wMPhuTMyUcZky3Wv5x5fS8J0OQKg51J1zEzKtUclpB8cFlJDBHDRrw26VmlPN4na-2Bd9I0uFS3iWIQUXioRiG-2Bbm6TpzL8V-2BY2Q-3D-3DzUvM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cykeuoe1yKt06gL1GoxMDR4NRAfalKy8tVJLp-2FEhrN763Rd2whmA99CfHLsTfjUuxkdZtyCRO2Ei7zgh9xqPGF2w-2BKQuh6Bdwc6L9eX6sRTL8QNB0TO1OAWlVS6Qz-2Fr2eA1wA-3D-3D) (Jul 14) put the physical side of it plainly: "Volkswagen is looking to cut its capacity globally from 12 million units to 9 million units," a 25% reduction, and the hosts (auto-media **pundits**) were scathing about how VW got here, citing money "developing an EV platform that didn't work," "buying Chinese technology for their cars," and "throwing money at Rivian." (These layoff and capacity figures are the podcasts' reporting, not audited company disclosures.)

While the makers retreat, buyers are still stuck, and this week added fresh detail on exactly how stuck. On [The Personal Finance Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicGq1hmBSFcN91-2B7i6vyCgitgaDsnc605tKNKhPtbeWjk3wYcV8AcmF3-2FAAAUqFngjJOHiWB-2FErtgog4DAhe5wZRJ91sDBvafzmjnLgo3OMA-3D-3DcGHo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cykekj6-2FG71OMPFcCIYKRbJafh3NmbJ7riT-2FGEa0cxoRTCUw6NQas38g-2Fd-2BAI-2FlyW-2FTi1GzTnzFu6IwnxWVT02fmGLj8qQ62A9oqafy8nTFdZont0mhUW6ye5Sw8UdXz47A7A-3D-3D) (Jul 13), the host (a **pundit**) walked through the raw arithmetic of the last six years: "The average new car price went from about $38,000 in early 2020 to about $49,000 to $50,000 in 2025 and 2026. The average transaction price hit an all-time high of about $50,326 at the end of 2025. That is roughly a 27% increase." Monthly payments now run "around $750 to $940," and used prices are "still up 30% to 33% higher than the pre-pandemic," with the average used listing "around $26,900 in 2026." The consumer-finance veteran Clark Howard, on [The Clark Howard Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3lAdK0oSrbZVejAnHeICiArMGne4SwrEbuTbVIUIB7234QuVV24IwXSM5WxvV8chz07e1ihlMg-2FbQND4nYnou-2FjgLNHOEGDRGNLYKqa-2FlIg-3D-3DZLVR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykekrfIjN6SRTU6ldeIDSoEJH3BXnnA45LageHRZFJBaSXk0IqfDScWPjnBcfiVqXqkzBge9V2-2FXvPZJ2HiS9Fb-2FI5eiFlqi2eUkxhNKGjxxrafkX0tU6o4VBSxyg45Y0QAA-3D-3D) (Jul 17), added a market signal worth noting: "Hertz just had the biggest one-day drop in its stock price since they came out of bankruptcy… because they disclosed that their vehicles are depreciating now quicker than their finance people thought they would." His broader point, that after years of relentless increases, buyers have simply stopped: "There is now softness that has not been there in forever in the used vehicle market… people are on buyer strikes. They're not buying new. They're not buying used." The result, he said, is a fleet that keeps getting older: "Today in the United States, we're above 12 years, 13 right in there. Average age of a vehicle." Even the retreat has a silver lining for someone, Subaru executives Todd Lawrence and Jim Pernas (**operators**), on [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhKRbkoa-2FqhPf2mwA5-2FCZRtA4g4rfQgdPKuYiO2OdgErzNdWJTBQgf0L5VWPvq98oql8PI0yc62f1PUSfPq1nioGN4alVdcI50ltH1RZrOzWQ-3D-3DPCIk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykelaAgUCvKB6Tl6welS-2B4-2BjLWmMgNF3rWql0SHM1PGBLwyR8g2YOXhce8zjBdE3QFqGPsXi7Jhz4RZqf1ZJDV1ECQSISdfx0gWtSlDctg5OSnjHJGynbylTA2U93hvXEYsQ-3D-3D) (Jul 17), said affordability fear is actually helping the service department: "People are cautious about spending big ticket items. And actually that can and is helping us," because people are keeping and repairing what they have.

There was one genuinely hopeful data set on EV demand this week, and it is worth holding onto. On [Shift: A podcast about mobility](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjlkdtgpEty5kc0E-2BpWOzuY1emfs8vJkZElnwQXxbPFetcVYaS2NG3IaDfUUk6zS3SYskfemUSFwVG43aqGtMCqdvxPvvhDBjPwEPT27OTwtg-3D-3DWQuT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cykev-2Bsnuuc3oJevc1GODUmKCMLyvUaPrxY9gOAgRogO3ib6qHAd0sAYR9BQhHadDosYz61gpLKfmTWmdBxtR9DPwB4H7o7QSex3nrkR4-2F-2BVHd2J-2FqgMZ-2BqWXELkBMoCJ-2B1Gg-3D-3D) (Jul 19), survey analyst Nick Czarnecki of Kline & Associates, a **pundit/researcher**, laid out the gap between what people say and what they do. In the US, "your 2026 numbers say my next [car] will be battery electric is 17%. But then you look at the actual numbers… the EV adoption, if you look at registration data… 6%, 7%, 8%, not 17%." That gap, he said, is almost entirely about price. But the leading indicators are improving: range anxiety "went down from number two spot to number seven spot" in consumer surveys as average battery sizes rose "to the tune of 30% plus," and "from early fleet experiences, we're seeing batteries lasting 250,000 to 300,000 miles and more." His forecast: adoption will keep rising, just gradually, with plug-in hybrids and range-extenders serving as a longer bridge than the industry expected, which is exactly the bet Honda, GM and Volvo are now making with their product plans.

## 2. The Chinese price war has started eating its own, and the wall keeps getting stranger

The through-line under every retreat above is the same: cars are cheapest to build in China, and China is building far more than the world can absorb. This week the story took two new turns. First, hard evidence that the price war is now hurting China's own makers, not just Western ones. Second, more detail on how the wall against Chinese cars is being built, through software and data rules, not just tariffs, and how selectively it is being applied.

**The price war turns on its makers.** The most important new number of the week came from [Autoline Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgL8S-2BywTpNGCO-2FLuhYyhyuoGS9-2BQkLFZzWz4uHWG8EbDBtHk0rti8B6ScPf2Cs9vSFRTHwkthEUWl-2BfGg7BnkrpydG7cHtiRQ-2BvGpiD1D83w-3D-3DNa05_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cykep-2FUb3D3NCVRHzykVtnajnJkvofxPouxb2bSqEZNaP7pOHeU22quQ6NNlOin-2Bdv9xKyYaOVxBkayEYpUOge9O-2FHWhI4wHC1JdZOU0EvUL20v-2FU9ksojw1V2dSdTh5cTydQ-3D-3D) (Jul 17): "Six major Chinese automakers have issued earnings forecasts for the first half of the year, and four of them expect losses, mainly due to rising prices of raw materials and components. While the other two expect to remain profitable, they've seen their net profits tumble by 60% or more." On top of that, "car sales in China slumped 20% in the first half of the year," squeezing cash flow, and Chinese makers are "also dealing with the chip shortage caused by growing demand from data centers, which is leading to higher chip prices." In other words, the same involution, the self-cannibalizing price war, that has flooded the world with cheap Chinese cars is now bleeding the companies waging it. That matters for everyone: it is the clearest sign yet that the current pace of exports is being driven partly by desperation, not just strength.

**And the overflow keeps landing in Europe.** On [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOghmluSUh1C0lv-2FihNohnntdLETes-2FoER2gBvhh1fywWGJAh74StfruRc8d0-2BzqG-2BScv6v9u-2BzwtyGtZQjiG-2FbUmoeTqTX9YuPWZRps-2FK4VGA-3D-3DTaK8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykemgpDBztvAEbd-2FGwyShIWs-2B8IGPvZlTSwyhxfB0CBF1NGjSwP3ix-2FycbtcYTZlDW2W0diZPDmnIIWIi6b4n0GQdqLwOeA1CFGuggj4q4z4jvPWwn5wsX98uSbg0GUQ9Vzg-3D-3D) (Jul 14), Automotive News Europe correspondent Peter Sigal, a **pundit**, connected the dots directly. Volkswagen's "sales in China were down, I believe, 28% in the second quarter," while in Europe "the Chinese are coming in. There's a cutthroat price war in China and Chinese companies are desperate to find profits and they're looking to Europe… undercutting the legacy automakers' prices and with the same features." The result: "Chinese automakers now have a 10% share of the European market. That's up from 4 or 5% a year ago, and the trend is not showing any signs of slowing down." His long-term prediction is that tariffs will not stop them, only relocate them: "10 years from now, Chinese automakers will have factories running in Europe. To avoid tariffs." And he was blunt that this is no longer a one-company problem: asked when VW's mess becomes the whole German industry's mess, he answered, "I think it's actually almost at that point right now," pointing to BMW's "fairly surprising profit warning a couple of weeks ago" and falling profits at Mercedes. Sigal also flagged why VW cannot simply slash and burn: in Germany, the union IG Metall has "incredible leverage" through co-determination, where "large strategic decisions can't be made in big companies without buy-in from union representatives who sit on the board."

That same 10% figure showed up again from an investor's chair. On [InvestTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhgLl2cMloR0pu03x22kzDhPRNmlrbk09MihEKizgj6NV-2FpxEociRYxX6vBsmNBSRD-2B-2FYGOB-2FF9EuRtKML70iqmV9DwRcdP5QgZQucp9RZ-2FpQ-3D-3DCMxB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykepZcwJ7FxMeJkl-2BewD2gz1bQfcX-2BfHwG87OPocTriWud1YY-2FIfvjvuyFH96MDEnHrpHsJ2UZuQvZ3yL3hBgYrbQYYk-2BcRZU3jTs5gbQzHhnjWSMLQzrApXT1YjvtD7tkQQ-3D-3D) (Jul 15), the host (an investing **pundit**) said Chinese makers "topped the European market share at 10% for the first time," forcing Volkswagen to plan roughly 100,000 job cuts and four German plant closures and BMW to book "about a billion euros in restructuring costs" that "could lead to about 10,000 jobs… and a 15% reduction in European car production overall." His framing of a recent month of European registrations: "Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Stellantis and Renault all lost market share of new cars in Europe, despite the entire new car market in Europe being up 4% year over year," because the growth "and then some went to those Chinese automakers." (This is the host's characterization of recent share data; treat the month-by-month specifics as his framing rather than a hard figure.) His investment takeaway was cautionary: what is "insulating us is that we aren't allowing the Chinese automakers here in the US," but "this is likely to spread around the world."

**The wall is made of software now, and it's applied unevenly.** The richest explanation of *how* the US is actually keeping Chinese technology out came from [The Straight Shift with The Car Chick](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj75-2ByOhADmYn3qDc-2BX5wLyeaYXEP-2B-2F06L7Zc6cV-2Fm92ux0U0GIlDW0Hp0eKPWGQ4oOk2mvw8hqY1zQOovrjVsxJijGoXuLUxmYurmRzr89SA-3D-3DK2pl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykeplF4cTx5asye1KE0BO2n9LMl7urMKNPQWrnNmoU1XR5mkDsyqg6t7rQGTAgQx19bmMQvVpZrzsk8tST8QHEYinvHrG9IgjvcNuy6LNCm-2BPtSr3-2F-2Bg49L0rfI6Hj4Zvwkg-3D-3D) (Jul 15), where host Leanne Shattuck, a **pundit**, a car-buying expert, devoted a whole episode to it. Her starting point: a modern car "contains nearly 100 electronic control units," and "100 million lines of software code… more code than is in an F-35 fighter jet or a Boeing 787 aircraft" (self-driving cars, she said, top 300 million). That turns every connected car into a data-collecting device, "It knows where your kids go to school. It knows where you stop for coffee… when you're home… when you are not," which is why Washington is now treating it the way it once treated TikTok. The mechanism is the Bureau of Industry and Security's Connected Vehicle Rule: starting with 2027 models, automakers "won't be allowed to sell new connected vehicles in the US if they contain certain software tied to China or Russia," with hardware restrictions following in 2030. Automakers must file a binding "declaration of conformity" and audit their entire supply chain, and any company with a "sufficient nexus" to a foreign adversary (Geely owns both Volvo and Polestar) needs a special waiver.

That is why Polestar was banned and Volvo was not, and Shattuck gave the cleanest explanation yet of the difference. Polestar's cars "are built directly on Geely's sustainable experience architecture… deeply, deeply, deeply integrated with China. They're essentially a Chinese EV wrapped in a nice Swedish sweater." Volvo's EVs run on "a different European-developed platform," and Volvo "got ahead of the problem," sitting down with the Commerce Department to document "their independent governance, their data security protocols." Polestar "couldn't do that." The knock-on effects she flagged are broad: the Lincoln Nautilus and Buick Envision are both built in China, so Ford has applied for waivers and, as she put it, "GM is saying, you know what? We are not even going to risk it… they're going right back to Kansas," pulling Envision production out of China ahead of the 2030 hardware deadline. Her warning for buyers is the same chaos tax that has defined this whole era: constant supplier re-auditing means "prices are likely to go up again," and features may vanish the way heated seats did during the chip shortage.

The fallout is already visible in Polestar's own strategy. On [Today in Manufacturing](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiEvWp5tkdd3jwrQzy5YROh4XATejEJJZKidlxXCp2e3-2BFpoyCJmM1KePWjBiMFVJZt6liQGCRg3tYxCwy3JYCzurBBkeYXGP9dLu3aRR5ASA-3D-3D2LUP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykesBdrqvZq-2Bhg0H-2BaVu1i-2FcSXVKkb6ldt6oMKUQkfPvjkOXPL3AZu-2FTdOyGziwnFOPiacwHHxTxWbG6p-2Fhf45M0J28OSUhIoCmaMVjNsHhV8dOh8F24KdtcYgb0rxQuyXtw-3D-3D) (Jul 13), the hosts (industry **pundits**) reported that after the BIS denial, Polestar is pivoting hard to Europe, which "accounts for about 80% of the carmaker's retail sales volumes," and that "some 94% of Polestar's retail sales volumes in the first quarter of 2026 came from markets outside the US." Polestar's US volume was tiny to begin with, "about 17,296 last quarter," but the hosts kept circling the same worry Kjell Bergh raised on this show last week: where does it stop? "Geely also owns a little company called Volvo," one noted, and Volvo has "close to like a quarter million heavy duty trucks on the road here in the US," a far bigger data-exfiltration target than 17,000 luxury EVs. Their unresolved question, the one the whole industry is asking, was why waivers exist at all if the threat is genuine: "Why is anyone being able to apply for a waiver if this is so critical to national security?" Polestar's CEO summed up the new reality carefully: "The automotive industry is entering a new phase based on regional dynamics."

**Two footnotes that show which way the current is flowing.** First, the export machine is now so strong that it is pulling in a very American company: on [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjkigVfMOb75I00jPhVbIOK5G2ljvDVSuCNFrthscAxLln0lPjH-2FAQ2RQRyWPLzFdIs0tAgA-2BgLTZ7XWyV-2FYm63KuIYyn26XZV1IUdQanPkmw-3D-3DeNY1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykerwwuuBkbHDxBOdO7cXYj-2BYUuRT4iW-2B5qGfSoe9qW-2F1XmQwkn2O4nMHjHsHKJbUgq2td54YUGaAntMi0sPADr-2FwwN7XahQ2agPjogvdQmR-2F7shm3rKtTxthyybEgLq1OpA-3D-3D) (Jul 16), the hosts reported that "Tesla is now China's number six exporter as its Chinese factory transforms into a global export hub." In June, the Shanghai plant's "overseas shipments more than tripled as sales in the local market fell," with "36,000 international deliveries" accounting for "40% of the plant's total shipments." The same episode captured the sheer speed of China's home market: "around 650 new or refreshed cars were introduced" there in the first half of the year, "a rate of almost four per day," against a US pipeline that Bank of America projected at just "159 new model launches over the following four years." Second, the trade rulebook that governs all of this is back on the table: on [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh34wbyiLvERObxVAsaVC-2FHSZm75sVBsHuYyE-2FHFNBKW-2FB3U2lRDLACQnKw2i9c0qLqC-2BoyJAyk24cPTt9a50zhKYhQAL8rd9XbUbmbvR9QOQ-3D-3DrceV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cykel6rCPmz3LhUxgedBYa-2FHu7bqAE8F4ukN8A7-2FtF-2F8KFI-2BQiW-2FduahWhaq-2FvIufLKkTMM7XZTxcarRdcoEAC58VcQ6btmmPqmfTigXmC38mmRmUhFU9RwKrlBbxiUVNfOwg-3D-3D) (Jul 15), the hosts noted that "top US and Mexican officials will meet next week [the week of July 20] in Mexico City" on "automotive rules of origin and tariff rates," three weeks after the administration said it would not renew USMCA, meaning "annual reviews of the agreement until 2036, when the deal will expire." Automakers, unsurprisingly, are "pushing for a quick end to negotiations in order to reduce uncertainty."

## 3. Robotaxis quietly start to multiply, while the real fight moves to city hall

If the first two sections are about retreat, the third is about the one part of the industry that is still charging forward. And this week the autonomy podcasts flagged something they had been waiting for: the first real evidence that a driverless fleet is scaling, not just launching.

The number came from [Autonomy Markets](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8-2BHi4Sp9qO605DXc5jKBV18zNl9oYEqygUY5EawVlPE2AH1sKbM0xtZhNVMNFwrxiWidPL5E4I4sPLhs-2BqM35EB0M97SslTDBJHDmxIxqrg-3D-3D2Utg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykesqLC-2BRBBARGWwEcbLSNGu7uztdE0m0rxysSfRqjZLXyQUCICNYmrksFeYUfTadAny-2F-2FWrtqvmZQO9Dve1Xz0-2BWA7yrICrnwuH1d05IY7EGmXtt1sitVwVhF0-2FyE95tCBQ-3D-3D) (Jul 18), where analysts Walter Piecyk and Grayson Brulte, **pundits** who do their own field reporting, walked through fresh registration data on Tesla's robotaxi. "A July 15th report that came out from the Texas DMV [showed] that Tesla had 175 robotaxis registered in Texas. That's up from 42 on June 1st. That's a quadrupling in six weeks," with "58… added really in like the last two days." Brulte, who was on the ground for the Miami launch, saw the same acceleration there: "under 10 robotaxis" on launch day, then "over 30 to 40 of them" when he "go[t] back five days later." Their benchmark for calling a market truly open is "100 cars in the market," and they think Austin is close: "next week we can truly kind of check off Austin as launched if we can get some evidence that there's 100 cars out there on the road." Brulte's baseball metaphor kept it honest, this is "the bottom of the first inning," but their bigger point was that the market has barely noticed: "It's kind of surprising that it hasn't been covered a little bit more… it seems like a pretty pivotal point, given it's been like a year since they launched this thing."

The employee-first rollout that Waymo pioneered is now Tesla's playbook too. On [Ride the Lightning](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbGmkOTmMi1Gnthd4svFkvfTOteyg5nQoURlwHwchMgjhN-2FpDTK2ZBqSNQ9IpaCixPi3xYc9HH7eIAtcheyYqGZQNMVgSw1OIPoB2xgFCRAg-3D-3DMThl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cykeox5KwJgZhhRPV22q-2B93rAnPEoHUA5P2CoZU2hclpGFc12Oo0HcHnOIbdkwPGIrtJHtaZEi9monX83vGI-2FZFW2fLI-2BUa2rrx87xo8pK-2BnyHUtHFU5iedTkeTyQ-2F92OrRZw-3D-3D) (Jul 19), the host, a Tesla enthusiast **pundit**, reported that Tesla "confirmed that its steering-wheel-less and pedal-less cyber cab is now in the process of giving employees rides," and crucially, "these are production cyber cabs with no manual controls whatsoever," not retrofitted engineering mules. He read that as a confidence signal about the software: "whatever FSD version is in those cyber cabs is the one that the Tesla AI team feels comfortable enough with to send employees out onto public roads in a car with no immediate user inputs." He was refreshingly candid that today's public FSD (version 14.3.4, rolling toward 14.3.5) is "gotten quite good" but "still does make those kind of silly little mistakes," describing one from the previous day where the car tried to route him through a car wash to cross train tracks. The same episode surfaced a new-product tell: Tesla's senior policy advisor India Herdman, an **operator**, told the Washington DC city council, "We are in development for a purpose-built wheelchair-accessible autonomous vehicle… people who are confined to wheelchairs permanently should still be able to move around freely." The host's bet is that this is a new "cyber van" sized between the two-seat cyber cab and the giant 20-passenger robovan.

But the most revealing thread this week was not about vehicles at all, it was about lobbying. Both [Autonomy Markets](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8-2BHi4Sp9qO605DXc5jKBV18zNl9oYEqygUY5EawVlPE2AH1sKbM0xtZhNVMNFwrxiWidPL5E4I4sPLhs-2BqM35EB0M97SslTDBJHDmxIxqrg-3D-3Dx2P5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cyketzf3m8V-2Bc50FaOL4JR-2FzQ9yz0QVk3vjhBEB9Z-2FPdZUXKlJ-2Fl8SWDJjenn0cgNFAJaRzdEwd0sqr-2Fh6Q-2BEkc8M3C68ceJwsgpoinAFgLxfkG0-2BnZwuw62yiaiPoEFjSdkg-3D-3D) (Jul 18) and its companion feed [The Road to Autonomy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiKZTgo5XRWHacTQk2i8kY8uOpKwo0IdC118je2FV1dAY05ZHb8mUIUCMDrCQ69zAVXLya5-2B-2FjCe-2FJTpL2U134LVB1VzlIxur3CzFON9Yo5mw-3D-3D0jeg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8Cykerk4axl8PeQCODIPBSm3a-2F4DrCCQSWZDoS1hk1SrROgjXblToIIZ-2FZz-2FHSPqGW-2FuDOwgi8HKcZNEFcHem08J8diRqeveQHgHj3RUaLQScXpPdSnlrmAr2yJAVfVjW7o-2F7Q-3D-3D) (Jul 18) zeroed in on a Washington DC bill to allow commercial driverless operations, and how it exposes the widening rift between Waymo and Uber. The bill would require a company to "drive in the district over 250,000 miles" before it can charge fares, and, as Piecyk put it, "there's only one company right now that's capable of doing that." Brulte called it "a lot of regulatory capture… that benefits a particular company." Piecyk connected it to Waymo's broader strategy of deliberately going slow, "300, 300, 300" cars per market, because "as you go to every new market and you're the first guy in, you can effectively establish the rules… that can close out competitors." Other proposed terms: "$5 million minimum liability insurance," crash reporting "within eight hours," and "another tax, 15 cents a mile," which the hosts noted "is not a small tax" against robotaxi unit economics. Uber is on the opposite side, arguing the bill "would effectively ban hybrid networks," the model where "a rider gets matched to an AV or a human," with an Uber policy executive reportedly "claiming that one AV displaces four drivers." The irony was not lost on the hosts: Uber, which "went from trying to disrupt the taxi cab industry… to sitting there and saying, okay, now we're the 10,000 pound gorilla. We don't want to be disrupted." They think the bill ultimately "dies," but read the whole episode as a sign the Waymo-Uber partnership in Austin and Atlanta is heading "the same way as Phoenix did."

Where Uber is clearly winning is not robotaxis but robo-delivery. The same conversation covered Uber's move to buy Delivery Hero, "more scale, more logos," and its plan to earmark "about 2 billion euro… in Germany through 2031, explicitly including AV initiatives." The hosts highlighted the economics of Uber's autonomous-delivery partner AV Ride: "60,000 Uber trips for AV ride, 200 plus cars, 1.3 million miles." Their emerging thesis, worth filing away: the robotaxi opportunity may end up "smaller and delivery potentially being bigger," and the real prize is using Uber Eats demand to feed autonomous fleets rather than fighting Waymo and Tesla head-on for riders.

And then, as always, the human reality check. On the driver-focused [Rideshare Rodeo Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiTDcExbXcRaZV5zwPL2nVUbejrNTV7KU4NM3DeQkCVXRASKQMh60BfQ08faY-2B-2B9l2dsK7w5dl5Iy2C6Ewm57gYoQ0jQZ2HxS5nctmUDFtL9g-3D-3D_nNE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUtrDM5OHWyyO43rHUMn1NmL6h2VF3A-2BF7N5JSj8CykegTqU-2FYBR-2BGtceEWOuIDwUiRxajyoj9r5wng62cWwVd8lc1mb3dHXZFJa0z-2FKau-2BbC16G23SChvW79mbwpDLAbGYvaAduT4aMtYxDYGfdyCwbHal99mUwJuycOL6qTEF5Q-3D-3D) (episode #595, Jul 14), host Steve and his guests replayed a run of bad Waymo headlines. A local news segment documented San Francisco first responders being blocked by driverless cars, the fire department has "31 internal documents" on such incidents, and "during this 4th of July, multiple Waymos ran out of battery power" mid-street, forcing engines "nose-to-nose with a Waymo." The QR codes riders and responders can scan to move a stuck car "does work at times, but other times it doesn't," and a city supervisor is pushing a "cost recovery fee" to make the companies pay. The show also aired footage of a Waymo being vandalized in East Hollywood, "a shirtless man on top of a Waymo… holding a bent windshield wiper while screaming at the sensor," with the hosts gleefully tallying the damage: the sensor-laden windshield is "a good few thousand dollars," "the lidar… that's 80 grand," so "upward of $85,000 worth of damage." Beyond the spectacle, the genuinely useful signal was about rider preference in a mature market: a driver in Atlanta reported that "the novelty… is gone," and passengers are now "selecting do not send me a Waymo," canceling and re-requesting a human when they get matched to one, partly because in Atlanta the cars "are not allowed on the highways," turning a 35-minute drive into a slog. Skeptical hosts, obviously, but the point that the second ride is where the novelty wears off is one the bulls should not ignore.

## What we're watching

- **How far the Honda-style retreat spreads**: Lance Wolfer's "not beyond 10% in any kind of hurry" is now the industry's working assumption. Watch which other US EV programs get cancelled or delayed before year-end, and whether the plug-in-hybrid "bridge" Nick Czarnecki described becomes the default product plan.
- **Volkswagen versus IG Metall**: Oliver Blume's "50,000 additional jobs" and the 12-to-9-million capacity cut collide directly with German co-determination. As Peter Sigal noted, the last five VW CEOs promised cuts and delivered the opposite; watch whether this one is different, and whether BMW's and Mercedes' warnings turn into their own restructuring announcements.
- **Chinese makers' own H1 results**: with four of six major Chinese automakers guiding to first-half losses and the profitable two down 60%-plus, the actual reported numbers will show whether the export flood is a sign of strength or of desperation. This is the single most important read on whether the price war is sustainable.
- **The USMCA talks in Mexico City (week of July 20)**: the meeting on rules of origin and tariff rates is the next concrete test of how much harder it will get to build (or route) cars through North America, and whether the annual-review limbo lasts all the way to 2036.
- **Whether Waymo's DC playbook works**: the 250,000-mile rule is the clearest example yet of an AV leader trying to write the rules of a market before rivals arrive. Watch whether the bill dies (as Autonomy Markets predicts) and what it signals for the fraying Waymo-Uber partnership in Austin and Atlanta.
- **Tesla crossing 100 robotaxis in Austin**: the analysts' own benchmark for "truly launched." If the Texas registration count keeps quadrupling, the next few weeks are when robotaxi scaling stops being a promise and starts being a number.

---

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