# Canada Caves, Oil Rebounds, the Carry Trade Returns - Commodity Currencies - Week of August 22, 2026

> Commodity-currency and FX podcast newsletter for the week of August 22, 2026. JPMorgan's FX desk goes on the record long the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone funded by the Swiss franc and Swedish krona, as Canada signs a tariff deal, oil rebounds toward $89 Brent, and BHP's new CEO says copper now out-earns iron ore.

## Commodity Currencies

### Week of August 22, 2026: Canada Caves, Oil Rebounds, the Carry Trade Returns

---

For weeks this letter has watched the commodity currencies get pushed around by things happening thousands of miles from any of them: a US jobs number, a Fed rumor, a dollar wobble. This week was different. This week the currencies had their own news.

Canada, after an 18-month tariff war, folded and signed a deal. Oil, which cratered a fortnight ago, climbed back to nearly $90. Australia's biggest company told the world that copper now earns it more money than iron ore. And, for the first time in a while, an actual currency-trading desk got on a podcast and said plainly which of these currencies it wants to own, and which it wants to bet against.

That desk was JPMorgan's, and the short version is: **they want to own the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone, and they want to pay for that bet by shorting the Swedish krona.** In other words, three of the five currencies in this letter, ranked, on the record. We don't get that often. Let's start there.

## TL;DR

- **JPMorgan's FX strategists laid out a real trade.** They "like the likes of Australia and Norway" as their top developed-market picks, and want to fund those bets by shorting the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona. Their case for shorting the Canadian dollar as a pure bet, though, has weakened: "the data has been better" and a tariff deal was coming.

- **Canada signed.** After Trump threatened a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods (set for Aug 19, then paused), a tentative deal landed around Aug 21: auto tariffs cut from 25% to 15%, steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, Canada dropping its retaliation and putting US booze back on shelves. The catch: Canada, for the first time in its history, accepts permanent tariffs sitting *outside* a free-trade deal. A former finance minister called it "losing by winning."

- **Oil bounced back to about $89 Brent**, up from the mid-$70s scare two weeks ago, as US-Iran talks stalled and Trump threatened an "economic D-Day" against Tehran. Rabobank sees Brent near $80 through Q4, with a path to $100 if things escalate. Good news for the two petro-currencies here, Canada and Norway.

- **BHP's new CEO went on air and said copper is now the company's single biggest earner, ahead of iron ore.** The mining giant needs the world to build "a new Escondida every year for 10 years" to keep up with copper demand. Copper is trading near record highs.

- **The dollar's big event was plumbing, not policy.** The US Treasury surprised markets by moving to at least double its bond buybacks, trying to hold down long-term borrowing costs after the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2007. JPMorgan is now "thoughtfully neutral" on the dollar.

- **Norway gets a rate decision soon.** JPMorgan flags a possible Norges Bank hike in September, a genuine tailwind for the krone on top of firmer oil.

- **Quiet corners:** the New Zealand dollar got no real airtime, and there was no fresh dairy, Swedish-bank, or standalone iron-ore commentary. Mexico, the fellow USMCA peso, is further down the negotiating road than Canada, and still hasn't won any tariff relief.

## What's new

**The FX desk finally showed its cards.** The most useful forty minutes of the week came from JPMorgan's own foreign-exchange strategists on [At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhK2ymby423EYK8PKUsfr00Rrsig5vws7-2B9Hz4cgdzs7vzvLXB8arc4EbW-2Bonc5OAXbiRlzlPmBSo1u55q6nkyoc8IVrG0QdldJsGpUwqwSWg-3D-3D9ZyC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU-2BvQjTyJ9UJJO3OJRBv5LmesIkHa9fmxDUpwpKqiwrS7m-2B2YyWgIp8ICDWziU4mdnHEn0-2F8liwEi-2F2WdvdlqzTQGcdCRDNy7LLXPWrX0VSRop9l3B3aYoUZGfilMhZyUuQ-3D-3D) (Aug 21). This is the closest thing we get to hearing a real trading book think out loud, so it's worth quoting them directly.

Their headline view: "We like carry. We like the likes of Australia and Norway. We like funding them out of currencies like Swiss and the Swedish krona." *(A quick plain-English detour: a "carry trade" means borrowing a currency that pays you little interest and using the money to buy one that pays more, you pocket the difference, as long as the exchange rate doesn't move against you. So JPMorgan wants to borrow cheap Swiss francs and Swedish krona and buy higher-yielding Aussie dollars and Norwegian krone.)*

On the **krone** specifically: "It's a currency we've been bullish on for some time," one strategist said, and their estimate of fair value keeps improving: the euro-krone rate is "down to 1080 now," helped by "the rise in energy prices," which "is actually offsetting the rate spread." On top of that sits "the potential kicker of a Norges Bank hike in September": Norway's central bank could raise rates while most others are cutting or holding. "With robust domestic growth, valuations where they are, energy prices doing what they're doing, we still do like Noki here."

On the **Swedish krona**, the view is the mirror image, and it hardened this week: "Our conviction in the bearish stocky bias definitely went up this week." Why? "We have a Riksbank now that's clearly pushing back on market pricing again this week, talking about subdued [price] plans. Are they really going to be starting a hiking cycle with core [inflation] well, well below 1%?" And unlike Norway, "Sweden is an energy importer," so rising energy prices hurt it. The krona was "the darling of G10" earlier this year, but that story is now priced in, leaving it as the cheap funding currency you short. *(This is an operator view: a bank's own FX research desk telling you how it's positioned.)*

> They want to own the Aussie and the krone, and pay for it by selling the krona. Three of the five currencies in this letter, ranked on the record, that almost never happens.

**Canada folded, and it's the biggest story of the week.** The tariff saga that has hung over the loonie for a year and a half finally broke. President Trump had threatened a 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods under a 1930s law, set to bite on Aug 19, then punted it three days. By Aug 21 a tentative deal was taking shape.

The terms, as reported across several shows: US auto tariffs come down "from 25%" toward **15%** (with exemptions for North American content that could push the *effective* rate lower), and steel and aluminum tariffs get "cut in half to 25 percent from … 50 percent," possibly with quotas. In return, Canada drops its retaliation and lets American liquor back onto its shelves. US Trade Representative Jameson Greer confirmed "we've reached an agreement" on [Bloomberg Daybreak](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOisboi2M-2Bma0D-2BqcbsltjlJFinttdFDclH2mo8zteDE9Wwr1VtjwTV2o0-2FkfrVBqXuCy2vlFaVw1daHeU8edy6EL1TF2-2BTtDVwNMNt4-2Bk6ZDw-3D-3DTJcW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU3AmotILv39MsbtqBhfA9TdMkbBbVK0XwTMH586Ih2OOjzxn7mWTFPpDHsKvK9XBd3xLrT-2FdZLXRh852WM1u-2BJa9xwn1SqeIl4zys-2FLV6gZnFW-2BVEGtbJ0W2Y0PVA9-2BIUg-3D-3D) (Aug 20).

The clearest, most informed take came from **Chrystia Freeland, Canada's former finance minister**, interviewed on [Wall Street Week](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjgo-2BeDywzvk2mQbOaEpWCTFZtRtz6M3tb7BLmzVe2FrHeJlUyQUBpWi7nM-2BGCqvJdhmbYXWOHpv0ovGqWt7zpX6VBuWiCpCECNgYucVfwBiA-3D-3D01bg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU87we8X0DSonInUyQreUuhSQHWcbqND44mmkiOl-2BZ0dNf2WhWgW-2B4r8MivwQP7mDIgE6R4kdHnzQXL8nSf-2FarCvWXjvHNRJHGrx1t-2FLp1JAJHs-2BgI3xiEWD4iTRltYrLSQ-3D-3D) and replayed on [Balance of Power](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgzZqqoaBAjMxBpB1ojDeQG1evdcNND65ChhjeN4jsJQkM2ghzS1jN3S2U3On0fp0h-2F-2F9RLMtT6tWFLtedefW-2Bm2ZnaKWayybfr5o58hOwAeA-3D-3D625p_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbUyV0BjErzEXibXwNlfZPVFtIAXjT0-2FfC1ZjqGv-2FGVZIcv-2FtqkYULE-2Fqm-2FCqpYezECfKD5FM3ORJAUvuLuDyQ2AdFTA-2BDtMF3rHnErJbVoxy-2B7nSFCxUyek5kEhho0AHDHw-3D-3D) (both Aug 21). She flagged the part that actually matters for the long run: the steel, aluminum, car and car-part tariffs "will remain in place, but at lower levels." That sounds fine until you realize what it means. Canada's "historic position," she said, was that "permanent tariffs outside [a free-trade] deal are unjustified and illegal, and we will not accept them." This deal crosses that line. "That is a really big deal." Her verdict: "You can lose by winning if you've defined winning in a way which is self-mutilating," and she argued it hurts American manufacturers too, since Canadian steel and aluminum are *inputs* to US factories ("aluminum is basically electricity in solid form"). *(Freeland is an insider: she personally negotiated the last North American trade deal.)*

The industry read was cautiously relieved. On [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhOP6tqgBn7t1pHTHxMi9IC7omEvaheaBT22ssADPxtSxL3nNsLlyLYaCbpP-2FJ82qEstQuafNmQXpFN9tzTFF6WaxPr25PcXRimnzSU95KsiA-3D-3DAZwD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU6ed2NZYuAwf7f-2FIPACEMrw-2FG3wpa-2B8YjUSD7vUiATozUpGlo3Zv6Az9T7tq5eb6-2BXqaviBu8ZsAr6AaagR5SxUWYCGiTqdhCwyxuW1SNECt80Qyl-2FN7TdjVCez7mZCDkw-3D-3D) (Aug 20), the CEOs of Global Automakers of Canada and the Pacific Manufacturing Association of Canada stressed that "the key thing is not necessarily what the tariff rate is, but what is your *effective* tariff": if enough North American content is exempt, a 15% headline rate can shrink to something much smaller. Eighteen months of uncertainty was the real enemy; a deal, even an imperfect one, ends it.

Politically, though, it stings. On [Hub Podcasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjCuSLTxawjIpaMy9qsgDkVnxpP1lxxvGsfDkeS5e0fDaIAGN84vkubJOl0KzXYSZ7tCBhvaKFCGttoOpdCP-2B241hVbvv-2BBf-2FSSfsN6QVpiNg-3D-3Dsunh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU0qE7kNG-2Fv5SrpFdnCphXFaka7tBwNuCxZazLURM1E1sgsOUsekCuCjFYEBTi85VIg3eQ7GovD0rvBKYvto2ijZt5VlqJS5FB4cemuAF67-2FesuIe3W16xJlrTxSdouyI7Q-3D-3D) (Aug 21), commentators Rudyard Griffiths and Sean Speer read out a line from Vice President JD Vance, who reportedly told a private fundraiser that Prime Minister Mark Carney "comes in and puffs his chest out and says, I'm going to out-tough Donald Trump … it's hilarious because Carney presents this as some kind of victory … they climbed down on a lot of issues." Their own summary was blunt: "The Americans have been driving the bus here. We've been passengers." And their explanation for *why now* is the interesting bit: Mexico is much further ahead in its own talks with Washington, and Canada didn't want to be locked into a trade regime shaped by Mexico's deal. *(Hub's hosts are commentators, not officials: informed opinion, not insider fact.)*

Why a currency letter cares: for a year, the loonie has carried a tariff risk premium, a discount for the chance things blow up. A deal, even a bad one, lifts that cloud. That's exactly why JPMorgan said it is now "less bearish on CAD than I was … the data has been better, and it looks like the trade negotiations are going to result in potentially materially lower tariffs" ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhK2ymby423EYK8PKUsfr00Rrsig5vws7-2B9Hz4cgdzs7vzvLXB8arc4EbW-2Bonc5OAXbiRlzlPmBSo1u55q6nkyoc8IVrG0QdldJsGpUwqwSWg-3D-3DT5aw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbUwqPEVviTy12Jva6mFQmPFoaPkq6mDIS8eU38ObGohiULTteNqRC-2F0dlcMdJOOmkwm4J2jHcmzB15rhC5LwowonC0jn7oDZJHwM-2B3h74Fbw-2BCRtSbMWR9jqEL85FN1c2TA-3D-3D), Aug 21).

**Oil climbed back off the floor.** Two weeks ago crude was caving toward the mid-$70s on hopes of an Iran deal. This week it went the other way. The best walk-through came from **Rabobank's Carlos Mera and Florence Schmidt** on [RaboResearch Agri Commodities](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiip0LHzhKtOIBLhGhwwAF3lXIr61lVu9ZRwiETkKU1NZ0-2Fm4u19hXDif6cvoHRasdliRyBKLxMaiviqhSjvDm7IYCPYfIbl4B4vm-2BKNl-2B6Lg-3D-3DeAXI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbUx4RaQ7Yc9Y8RB-2FiqKx-2FYnVU3hQPpGVTiZAvGXHd5BHV23229PsiQInGDWBdQTAP909b6PKMSFU2glrHu-2BwUClMNBzkG2a7fvdEhCPRDBLAvyT-2F91-2Fq2slzlXJ9WBJp-2BKw-3D-3D) (Aug 18). Brent was "at $89 per barrel today, up from $70 at the time the Iran conflict started on the 28th of February, and up from $60 at the start of this year." Six months into the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz (the world's most important oil chokepoint) is still effectively closed, though roughly 4 million barrels a day now sneak through, plus another 6 million via pipelines that go around it. Rabobank's forecast: "roughly $80 per barrel for Q4," with a jump to "$100 per barrel" if things escalate, or a drop "below $80" if a real deal is struck. *(This is operator research: a commodities bank's energy desk.)*

The reason oil isn't even higher, given the chokepoint is shut, is a theme this letter keeps returning to: **China simply stopped buying.** Rabobank pegged the drop at "four to five million barrels a day of crude demand loss … over the last few months, which has really helped markets balance." Good for global inflation; a quiet warning about Chinese demand.

The wild card is escalation. On [Bloomberg Daybreak](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOisboi2M-2Bma0D-2BqcbsltjlJFinttdFDclH2mo8zteDE9Wwr1VtjwTV2o0-2FkfrVBqXuCy2vlFaVw1daHeU8edy6EL1TF2-2BTtDVwNMNt4-2Bk6ZDw-3D-3Dl_fn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU1L9uom11GnYy3nVbW3QQLJc7PRTV8DPRi3FIdbdx7-2FVsY63BCW9Dzc3L95-2Bydss4AgXgUMvj7cLSLxpiX-2BjvrvTRXIwjL8XDrXL2pXCd8n25FuJrEA2xijC9DH5w5WeRw-3D-3D) (Aug 20), Trump threatened Iran with an "economic D-Day": "economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale." Independent macro analyst **David Woo**, speaking from Israel on [Wealthion](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjbKNQO1gaMR1UNHAxubLCGeS02QolEiDF4vrWPWgOco770EnyceOeDgyMjTsKlAU8OUohW5SeGRBDGk3Rh30u6ho4jPYAyJLNmtf4LtK7kbw-3D-3DvjjS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU38-2F9DB8bHNxcaCZB7GFJBJDYsVw9py5pR8IeYbho9uWlMHXVowyq-2BHEeOzTPs87F4quH637r4KK5NQOREuMPAd1HTtzGiAh6r-2B4UyL9HpX3HHPydbL3yCT6xEt4-2BXSLWw-3D-3D) (Aug 18), spelled out the mechanism: the only real lever Washington has left is to fine Chinese banks and refineries for buying Iranian oil, and if it pulls that lever, "that's bullish for oil and bearish for the stock market," because China would retaliate. Woo is still long oil. *(Expert commentary, not a company operator.)* For Canada and Norway, firmer oil restores the income tailwind that vanished two weeks ago.

**BHP's CEO put copper front and center.** The rare treat this week was hearing directly from the boss of the world's biggest miner. **Brandon Craig, BHP's new CEO**, gave his first US broadcast interview on [Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4RfzD1t5ljdchtN9fHxRoZIJl7GF4OLSOt71FigfUehVtkC6zVjw6pxMqLIBKHmMlmrK7-2FvIAprU4wNdeem8ZBUePuo6-2FPf3CGFVaSc0I4A-3D-3DrmBZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU87-2F15eTATGWiH7wHHGJtYxOUXGQwvWAst5NRT-2BXR2WOkAHwc7bUEZGz-2B-2FntqBTQTSy-2BHlVWfI07701-2F93TtXbWo-2BitpXLG7kIvPB95ajAH8UbFoLkFCAezHMUPpszyoCA-3D-3D) (Aug 18) after the company posted a 30% jump in underlying profit and its biggest dividend in four years. The headline: "Copper is now the biggest earnings driver for the company, surpassing iron ore." *(This is as operator as it gets: the CEO, on the numbers.)*

Craig's demand math is worth keeping: the world will need "around 50 million tons [of copper] from 34 million tons today" by 2050, and from now to 2035 miners must add "10 million tons of additional production," which he framed vividly as having to "produce a new Escondida every year for 10 years" (Escondida, the largest copper mine on earth, makes about a million tons). The drivers are India urbanizing and America building AI data centers. On the other half of BHP's business, he was reassuring: the iron ore price "was really resilient," China keeps making about "a billion tons of steel," and he expects that to hold. Copper itself is trading near record highs; one mining analyst pegged it around "$14,000 per tonne" ([Mining Stock Education](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOia3wbvidAmLf9Ks9RAzBjB-2FT1m-2FwekNhObkkTGT7modM5OUQj4oP5j72V2-2BssEj8wAmrvb1FEfoOPN5Cq2K38QncO3BPUib2A8M03SzMmnXg-3D-3D-jWh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU34nlju2fFITptS09LGZuQFatOLZUuYA2zCCLjGtYMcuMrG9xQQvI4SPa1GRtVqgUYobRR5bDlncaOrXsVK1njUTgY-2BjV93TbdlY0vUEMiy-2FpRmxieiZLfJ-2FnpfiyhPY-2FQ-3D-3D), Aug 21), with supply pinched by disruptions in Chile and Peru. With the Aussie miners otherwise quiet on their own currency, copper remains the cleanest read we have on the industrial cycle Australia rides.

**The dollar's drama was under the hood.** The week's big US story wasn't the Fed, it was the Treasury. Secretary Bessent surprised markets by moving to "at least double the size of its bond buybacks" to hold down long-term borrowing costs, after the 30-year yield "topped 5.31 percent … its highest level since 2007" ([Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4RfzD1t5ljdchtN9fHxRoZIJl7GF4OLSOt71FigfUehVtkC6zVjw6pxMqLIBKHmMlmrK7-2FvIAprU4wNdeem8ZBUePuo6-2FPf3CGFVaSc0I4A-3D-3Dz-5a_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU0j3-2BOZfvaoCyFeO6J6C6kejQXCnYUvylYReCF05B5XGNTXXY3JZuyzSydW05ZyMxb-2BJw-2BzCgGlo-2B3GSS8KzkrFfC69v7lIzhRWzZVlO6Z8xv3U7x9B0vIahjyaXPEgrdQ-3D-3D), Aug 18; [Bloomberg Daybreak](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOisboi2M-2Bma0D-2BqcbsltjlJFinttdFDclH2mo8zteDE9Wwr1VtjwTV2o0-2FkfrVBqXuCy2vlFaVw1daHeU8edy6EL1TF2-2BTtDVwNMNt4-2Bk6ZDw-3D-3DHcKX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU-2BBEyrnYfuLoj1-2Bx4q7agRXntVnjskVhaIFqpBzyH3264LXQd2rAF2viz9mZcVlyDlkzwkmf6V7X-2Bi0i5TNQHSWv884H00Dibs6tnTbfVQTctTgf338g0N-2Bd9o4mAbDpzw-3D-3D), Aug 20). The team at [Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhnrelsy2bNSY-2BAmqeVUxFmGzTUSSk8RtwdOA8zb5iXR-2BVLEBdaVm97o59NVclBjBIeZF02w5zjynSv8Ur0iqr37fc3XV9PwR0WC8kM8aqWAA-3D-3DhiX1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbUwn6kJPENnKseUu0WO5dwKBcdZUEnmccwksC-2FhnFQjrWpA-2B0sqdYXhboCg-2FkbsidkdWaoaPUrFzHyBzsmfnl5hsQY6g4KpwxW3qENP7-2FJMWb0FkSyY5SddtanLPU5zmG6A-3D-3D) (Aug 20) made the key point: "the market is not reading this as [money-printing] immediately," so it wasn't a clean risk-on signal, more a sign of how much these US deficits now hang over everything. For our bloc, JPMorgan's takeaway is what counts: they're "thoughtfully neutral" on the dollar, which means the game is less about betting on the dollar itself and more about owning the high-yielders (Aussie, krone) against the low-yielders (franc, krona).

## The debate

The honest framing this week isn't bull-versus-bear on the whole bloc, it's whether to trust the carry trade JPMorgan is leaning into. And the podcasts genuinely voice both sides.

**The bull case (own the high-beta exporters).** This is the case that got the loudest, most credible airing. JPMorgan wants to be long the Aussie and the krone, funded by the franc and the krona, and its "pro-cyclical signals … have become even more in the green" ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhK2ymby423EYK8PKUsfr00Rrsig5vws7-2B9Hz4cgdzs7vzvLXB8arc4EbW-2Bonc5OAXbiRlzlPmBSo1u55q6nkyoc8IVrG0QdldJsGpUwqwSWg-3D-3DAzbK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU0uKjcj9CcOtV2XcfWlldjcJt-2FE-2BDsFkVVvSnQo-2Fa-2FEPX4XB4doygo26jsfL-2B8vn9nd9PiQCbPU1d4U7Yv-2BX8IuyM2eZrJt8XvWskkws4YV-2BYM3ctBKCKQIt74mRCuVngg-3D-3D), Aug 21). The supports are real: oil back near $89 helps Norway and Canada ([RaboResearch](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiip0LHzhKtOIBLhGhwwAF3lXIr61lVu9ZRwiETkKU1NZ0-2Fm4u19hXDif6cvoHRasdliRyBKLxMaiviqhSjvDm7IYCPYfIbl4B4vm-2BKNl-2B6Lg-3D-3DK9bh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU9ywD6i7JvNFvQvx1h5qEtZDcSGCquGRSJk-2BCuu544CpLDu1UXOq-2Fi3A83WJbLoZgSs0V8ieHLci5QGLyNBht8F9U7H7kQIoKG7aV269qLtIOGYCpFDLN0YH8IDG8eA1SQ-3D-3D), Aug 18); copper near records with BHP's CEO vouching for the demand ([Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4RfzD1t5ljdchtN9fHxRoZIJl7GF4OLSOt71FigfUehVtkC6zVjw6pxMqLIBKHmMlmrK7-2FvIAprU4wNdeem8ZBUePuo6-2FPf3CGFVaSc0I4A-3D-3DOuS0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbUzipyD6ykpDv-2F0BXtH6lROGd3CV5l4Pd1ly4SPAzJof86QlBfEYWtFnsPNzw-2FnOrxfAZTSanxsq2FY9RMucEPJ3TNh3kDQtoscLyzzyA1qR3vf-2B2mrZoAgEz9btJf-2BNjnw-3D-3D), Aug 18); a possible Norges Bank rate hike in September; and Canada's tariff cloud finally lifting.

**The bear case (it's carry on a fragile foundation).** Three cracks. First, the dollar isn't clearly falling: JPMorgan itself is only "neutral," and the reason is unnerving: the US Treasury had to intervene in its own bond market to keep long-term yields from running away. That's a fiscal-stress story, and fiscal-stress stories can turn risk-off fast. Second, the bloc isn't one trade. JPMorgan is *bearish* the Swedish krona, a reminder that an energy importer with sub-1% inflation and a dovish central bank behaves nothing like an oil exporter. Third, the thing propping up global inflation (China buying four-to-five-million fewer barrels of oil a day) is also the clearest sign that Chinese demand, the ultimate customer for Australia's ore and Canada's crude, is soft, not recovering. And a small local warning: Australia's unemployment rate just ticked up to a cycle-high 4.5% ([Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhnrelsy2bNSY-2BAmqeVUxFmGzTUSSk8RtwdOA8zb5iXR-2BVLEBdaVm97o59NVclBjBIeZF02w5zjynSv8Ur0iqr37fc3XV9PwR0WC8kM8aqWAA-3D-3DizBp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU-2FFppuCc4iWLtCmkTvBl4JKKQCYoIz5wA-2F5e5WhL8JWBVCvwQbdN3AZg6nJCoyAxitKPn0EKGh7qsN-2FZbtSkT2lcQ9bfL6k-2F-2ByE5JiK1wc03HncgKD5AcnsuJ4GlsDPR2w-3D-3D), Aug 20).

The balance this week tilts bull, but it's a *carry* bull, not a *China-reflation* bull. Nobody made a confident case that Chinese growth is turning up. The trade is "own the yielders while the dollar drifts," and it works right up until either the dollar or the bond market stops drifting.

## Trades in play

For once, the podcasts pointed at something actionable, because a real desk said it out loud. JPMorgan's expression, straight from [At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhK2ymby423EYK8PKUsfr00Rrsig5vws7-2B9Hz4cgdzs7vzvLXB8arc4EbW-2Bonc5OAXbiRlzlPmBSo1u55q6nkyoc8IVrG0QdldJsGpUwqwSWg-3D-3DRWd-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU-2F1VHlaqBVk-2FJcxl8v5LvvUr0zYME-2BrG3LqkXC6Vp6OsBVm04wKsc7agLe6LSfaPjNdm1-2FLjb8lYyhIVkbr2ab-2FClmLjpe4BW6ojbFVTmKV49sqQrMHqZU16WY9STCZpYw-3D-3D) (Aug 21): **long the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone, funded out of the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona.** It's a carry trade dressed in commodity-currency clothing, you're paid to wait, as long as the dollar keeps drifting and energy stays firm.

Two footnotes they added themselves. On the **krone**, watch Norway's inflation print in the coming weeks: it decides whether the September rate hike (the extra "kicker") actually happens. On the **loonie**, they've stopped recommending it as a short for pure profit ("the data has been better" and the tariff deal removes a reason to be bearish), though they still use it as a cheap funding currency for emerging-market carry trades. That's a subtle but real shift from a desk that spent the last nine months leaning against Canada.

## Read-throughs

- **Iron ore + BHP / Rio / Fortescue:** BHP's CEO said the iron ore price "was really resilient" and that Chinese steel output (~1 billion tons) should hold, but the story has flipped, copper now out-earns iron ore at BHP ([Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4RfzD1t5ljdchtN9fHxRoZIJl7GF4OLSOt71FigfUehVtkC6zVjw6pxMqLIBKHmMlmrK7-2FvIAprU4wNdeem8ZBUePuo6-2FPf3CGFVaSc0I4A-3D-3DZfXd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU1vh4KK4zSOmcQaDT6W5g4U-2Fcq3rtAMxFPeYPxoS0RlMbiEuN-2BiW5rBCEgl0-2F7HDOHeBT2vKYq1HSc0QHeCX47T92v9HxoYSglDHcJD2CUzZVGebeiyXX26PIuGw8RHFJw-3D-3D), Aug 18). No one talked Rio or Fortescue directly this week.

- **Copper:** near record highs (~$14,000 a tonne), supply squeezed by Chile and Peru, and now with the world's biggest miner's CEO on record about a decade-long structural shortage ([Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4RfzD1t5ljdchtN9fHxRoZIJl7GF4OLSOt71FigfUehVtkC6zVjw6pxMqLIBKHmMlmrK7-2FvIAprU4wNdeem8ZBUePuo6-2FPf3CGFVaSc0I4A-3D-3DEHBv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU7-2B-2Fh3J-2FddMv5Aj1CSw-2FQky5SSRFDz7DWLHl2tUnBXE6unE1LUEiFEVyxIgFCDrNU5KQ4-2FnbHvNGBQD7Mp6Xsoe4P-2Btu0UV-2BbjLs6QqT7nWc-2Fsfdb62ahm1N6VMga0Q-2BnA-3D-3D), Aug 18; [Mining Stock Education](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOia3wbvidAmLf9Ks9RAzBjB-2FT1m-2FwekNhObkkTGT7modM5OUQj4oP5j72V2-2BssEj8wAmrvb1FEfoOPN5Cq2K38QncO3BPUib2A8M03SzMmnXg-3D-3D9u66_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbUy4mOZx5HxEhM-2Fs4wW-2FBcnnsR-2B2LOfiV3oT3cgcI-2FOKxd0gSfpOoMyFd3uTKjUD6iDE2J-2Fs8Rdc3S7EQCgpVz4b48poPR9IUi9zbhM7N5WvWlCGEb9fpQbEaVifVsx33Kg-3D-3D), Aug 21). The live downside remains a possible US copper import tariff. Constructive for the industrial cycle Australia rides.

- **WTI / Brent + Canadian energy (CNQ, SU, ENB):** the clear positive swing of the week. Oil back to ~$89 Brent, forecast near $80 through Q4 with a path to $100 on escalation ([RaboResearch](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiip0LHzhKtOIBLhGhwwAF3lXIr61lVu9ZRwiETkKU1NZ0-2Fm4u19hXDif6cvoHRasdliRyBKLxMaiviqhSjvDm7IYCPYfIbl4B4vm-2BKNl-2B6Lg-3D-3DdDu6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU-2B975j24j-2FGlfsyp28TKm8iys7X5VKghIM-2BaXdfPVE7KfqmWwu374BjahcjXwxGZYeZnMNINs7XL76ueJFjEVWNK9p0kwe26EGN2dn6oSBde0GP0xLjRYAZxcSoTTwo5RA-3D-3D), Aug 18; [Schwab Network / David McAlvany](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjrpM2u-2FcZ5vqT93Tb4CnVbgjlWpSyEv-2FoqWR8-2F51vdqeFNTz29N7-2BXsGbBPhzB0d6QjNQ-2F4oivVR7Dxxp62eh1FG-2FiQyzlDLJ5ucOglT0k6g-3D-3DHdo2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU5BrzJP1jezqgxd7KOnM82XMeW8K7F1O3Woe8U0DtJautpWOPiyYpRCsj09hMiI9G2U1JKYrYvil3CaLjfwhswStTWL2CM-2Fg3vfHcbEHTgD1-2BzTlOIb1dVCsMyNKNCGeRw-3D-3D), Aug 17), a terms-of-trade tailwind for the loonie and krone. No one named Suncor, CNQ or Enbridge on the numbers this week, but Canadian energy stayed carved out of the tariff fight.

- **The yuan / China cue:** soft, not reflating. China's ~4–5 million barrel-a-day cut to oil imports is the dominant signal ([RaboResearch](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiip0LHzhKtOIBLhGhwwAF3lXIr61lVu9ZRwiETkKU1NZ0-2Fm4u19hXDif6cvoHRasdliRyBKLxMaiviqhSjvDm7IYCPYfIbl4B4vm-2BKNl-2B6Lg-3D-3DoWKW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU-2BVAYkTbERvc9oScliaV08bT-2FAT7gjB1rOaHmYdULABVsbzlnp7z-2BEGJaEyobAoBLUylvWzgJ7AjjMVG4PTcBfWQ-2Fl-2FC7rQpBQqyweHUIAisATvqROi6FEapY5kLzwwbFA-3D-3D), Aug 18), and the new tail risk is Trump's "economic D-Day" threatening to hit Chinese banks and refineries over Iranian oil ([Wealthion / David Woo](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjbKNQO1gaMR1UNHAxubLCGeS02QolEiDF4vrWPWgOco770EnyceOeDgyMjTsKlAU8OUohW5SeGRBDGk3Rh30u6ho4jPYAyJLNmtf4LtK7kbw-3D-3DBdox_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU3gPLhjE2zYoBh1sGDiEfZ91x7h58fcgSrUqZP08Hjy7pQ-2BA6joYWuXBxZPwiAGe0k53a5ELaPu0V7DpPQ7AtlIqqpSC2DFc0qjsLBaGTmx3P2TqzEBcYzncelfLEJceRw-3D-3D), Aug 18). Xi Jinping is due in Washington around Sept 24.

- **MXN / Banxico:** Mexico is *further* down the road than Canada. Former Mexican trade vice-minister **Juan Carlos Baker** explained on [35 West](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhf2Pdx8FTbS2Mos5oW4zBZPXdPWuvyWTQwODpvTGx7D9DKLRYxUDCZ8Rf5yZuqQz-2F6SnWbpm-2BrsobIoEpcIQT-2BX2uwWH3f6sbkAo5KvYwEVA-3D-3DCyEF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU4v9GZ4R73O3OWncBbUe6yRLYXlR2e7ecGygQaivmHmiAFCXXJOcqNqKkAlk6yROzF1l4aID7rO-2BoCnOzJZEzCQDVLOoB9E1-2FzuyY31J2BM6JZdh6tpoTP0VdLjovs3vxg-3D-3D) (Aug 20) that Mexico is still paying tariffs and hasn't won relief, and that any interim deal will likely require *more* Mexican concessions (tighter rules of origin and a harder line on Chinese imports) in exchange for lower Section 232 tariffs. Uncertainty "eventually is going to kill us," he warned, with companies "enduring the pain" and profits shrinking. Next US-Mexico round is in September. *(Insider view.)*

- **Equinor / Norway / NOK:** the standout positive. JPMorgan is bullish the krone, sees fair value improving (euro-krone at 1080), and flags a possible September rate hike, with firmer oil helping Norway's terms of trade ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhK2ymby423EYK8PKUsfr00Rrsig5vws7-2B9Hz4cgdzs7vzvLXB8arc4EbW-2Bonc5OAXbiRlzlPmBSo1u55q6nkyoc8IVrG0QdldJsGpUwqwSWg-3D-3DnroW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU54XgEAsRrz2zGfgs6HLyDczib7m1O243O9zvbXnpdlGV-2FHhPuO47w1Vnwqj3smf63so-2FoQvI1USgT7qMyQHW5DJRC05CoQkO6gznbP8TZ7S-2FmM3rzSgeU1FfvoUlL-2BGTQ-3D-3D), Aug 21). No fresh Equinor or sovereign-wealth-fund commentary this week.

- **Swedish housing / banks:** nothing directly. The only Sweden read was JPMorgan's bearish krona call, a Riksbank pushing back on rate-hike bets, core inflation below 1%, and an energy-importer's vulnerability to pricier oil ([At Any Rate](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhK2ymby423EYK8PKUsfr00Rrsig5vws7-2B9Hz4cgdzs7vzvLXB8arc4EbW-2Bonc5OAXbiRlzlPmBSo1u55q6nkyoc8IVrG0QdldJsGpUwqwSWg-3D-3DCcB6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWh4lOOrVFeH86OgZbhEgu4UxGy8Bi3s0rdtALLtcNbU6P4JPIdRinYbREjxVkCJxzImqKeuugMBOh9Kty2-2FNe-2FYKA-2BPG1BrkY5c-2Br5-2Bd006lmNPaFXL5CDiYrMk4yNDgKynrQqxCGKqLYGp2j-2BdnGVBfBM4NpkfFPsiUaJ33J69A-3D-3D), Aug 21).

- **The New Zealand dollar** got no real airtime: no fresh RBNZ, dairy, or kiwi commentary to work with this week.

## What changed

Three genuine reversals from last week, and they mostly cut the same way.

**The tariff went from escalation to a deal.** A week ago the story was Canada's 50% tariff getting *bigger teeth*, with autos newly caught in the net effective Aug 19. This week those tariffs were shelved and a broad deal took shape (autos down toward 15%, metals halved to 25%), but at the price of Canada conceding, for the first time ever, permanent tariffs outside a free-trade agreement. The uncertainty premium on the loonie should ease; the structural trade relationship is quietly worse.

**Oil reversed.** Last week crude caved to the mid-$70s on Iran-deal hopes. This week it climbed back to ~$89 Brent as the talks collapsed and Trump turned openly hostile toward Tehran. The petro-currency tailwind for Canada and Norway, which had vanished, is back.

**The dollar's driver switched.** Last week it was a soft jobs report. This week it was the US Treasury stepping into its own bond market to cap surging long-term yields, a fiscal-stress episode that left JPMorgan "thoughtfully neutral" rather than outright dollar-bearish. And two new voices entered the frame: BHP's CEO putting copper above iron ore, and JPMorgan's desk finally ranking the Aussie, krone and krona out loud.

What didn't change: the US dollar still sets the tempo for this whole bloc, China still looks soft rather than reflating, and the New Zealand dollar and the fine detail of Sweden's economy still can't get a word in.

---

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