# Freight Capacity Sits Near a Decade Low and Carriers Are Not Buying Trucks - Freight & Logistics Weekly - Week of September 1, 2026 > Freight and logistics weekly for the week of September 1, 2026. Podcast synthesis on the Logistics Manager's Index showing a record 66.6 point gap between transportation pricing and capacity, why scarred carriers are refusing to rebuild fleets, AI data-center hardware taking 17 percent of trans-Pacific air cargo, and diesel pushing past $5.55 a gallon. ## Freight & Logistics Weekly ### Week of September 1, 2026: Freight Capacity Sits Near a Decade Low and Carriers Are Not Buying Trucks --- There is a survey that has quietly tracked the American supply chain for ten years now, and this week its authors sat down to explain what it is screaming. The short version: the price of moving freight is running at levels almost everyone in the industry agrees are high, the amount of available trucking capacity is sitting near the lowest it has ever measured, and, for the first time in a boom like this, nobody is rushing out to buy more trucks. That last part is the whole story. In every prior up-cycle, high prices pulled new capacity into the market within months, and that flood of new trucks is what eventually broke the price. This time the trucks are not coming. If that holds, the people saying this is a real turn rather than a head-fake are looking more right by the week, even though spot rates (the price to move a load booked on the day) are still drifting lower. Meanwhile, two other things worth your attention: the AI build-out is now visibly rewiring what moves and how, right down to air-cargo lanes, and diesel refuses to come down, which is starting to look less like a spike and more like a tax on the whole system. ## TL;DR * *The Logistics Manager's Index, a 10-year-old survey of senior logistics executives, put transportation pricing at 96 out of 100 in May and capacity at 28.4 in July, the second-lowest reading of any kind in its history. The gap between the two hit a record 66.6 points in April.* Translation: prices high, capacity gone. * *The tell is what is not happening, namely no rush to build fleets.* Scarred carriers will not over-order into uncertainty, so the thing that usually ends these cycles is not showing up. * *Spot rates keep fading (down roughly 21 to 23 cents per mile since July 4), but contract rates are repricing up, heading toward +16% year-over-year by year-end.* The two are converging from opposite directions, which is the bullish shape. * *AI is now a freight story you can see in the data:* data-center hardware is 17% of trans-Pacific air-cargo volume, up from 6% in 2024. It is "kind of replacing e-commerce." * *Diesel pushed past $5.50 to $5.55 a gallon,* and a Fed official is now openly calling for a rate *hike*. Two different squeezes pointing the same way. * *Thieves are ram-raiding trucks carrying AI data-center gear,* including chips, servers, copper, and fiber, and shipping it overseas through the ports. Cargo security is now a balance-sheet line, not a footnote. ## What's new ### A decade of data says the trucks are not coming back The most important thing said out loud this week came on [Freightvine](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi4zw2IgihYhtSUo059-2FaHjgGWzVqJGcH0GqxpGP5GEW9Te4eix0Tvsk7PVAjiugWCUlbv4qRv6-2FrK-2FCwBhXETMrZCMb5Ar7hEH2Y-2FDDzA5wA-3D-3D_91U_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVZdBTjTeL4IwNBw-2F5dOD0XeIacdnso7qP2QPU-2FQmy-2BhUwYcN6OULZ5yLIY0eph8QqFbH0pMbu8M4CwkPbCP7jE2QKnSp5Ug4ZsIqGpqAI1tHDfQlW-2BGQz9pQ9XgVh2W1-2FoaNsOIHZ8fQhhljFlYc1eY-2FF3pDuvk4jRaCcbRUlgag-3D-3D), where DAT's Chris Caplice hosted the father-and-son academics behind the Logistics Manager's Index, Dale Rogers of Arizona State and Zac Rogers of Colorado State, to mark the index's tenth birthday. Quick plain-English primer, because the numbers only land if you know the scale. The LMI surveys director-level and above logistics managers every month and scores eight parts of the supply chain from 0 to 100. Above 50 means that thing is expanding; below 50 means it is shrinking; the further from 50, the faster it is moving. As Dale Rogers puts it, before anything gets counted in the economy, it first has to move on a truck, a train, or a ship, so this is an early read on where things are headed. Here is what has them talking: * *Transportation pricing hit 96 in May.* On a scale that stops at 100, that is very nearly every respondent saying prices are going up. Caplice's reaction on the show was basically: who on earth is *not* seeing prices rise? * *Transportation capacity read 28.4 in July*, tied for the second-lowest capacity reading in ten years, and, as Zac Rogers noted, the second-lowest reading of *any* component ever, "because nothing gets that low." * *The spread between the two hit a record.* In April, price was 95 and capacity was 28.4, a 66.6-point gap. As Zac Rogers said: > And this is going to be a somewhat ominous number, a 66.6 point spread, which is the farthest one we've ever had... normally that's like a 20 point difference. Now the punchline. Prices have sat in the 90s for about five months. Normally, that is the fire alarm that sends carriers out to buy trucks, and the resulting glut is what kills the up-cycle. It happened at the end of 2020. *It is not happening now.* Zac Rogers explained why in a line that should stick with anyone trying to time this thing: > We're not going to get ahead of our skis, because if the demand drops at all, now we're stuck with the check of these really big costs. Carriers got burned in the 2022 to 2024 freight recession, and they are not going to over-order into a world where they do not know what tariffs, fuel, or labor rules look like next quarter. Zac Rogers' dry summary of where capital is willing to go right now: nobody feels good about any investment "that's not a data center." *Why it matters:* this is the cleanest evidence yet that the capacity squeeze is structural rather than a seasonal blip. It comes from an academic index with a decade of history, not from a company talking its own book. If capacity genuinely is not being rebuilt, the usual mechanism that ends a freight up-cycle is missing. ### The AI build-out is now a freight story you can measure On [The Loadstar](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgUD93NzobLFQz823UBX-2BC64v3pnKPeO-2FqIFsZp3cgBp60hYz6qeKCq4F1JyK4UJw9KMNLEG7QjjJMVX8QXCwjoa-2BSx3ZXQIQVRL9veLyOQJQ-3D-3DqIZ__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVZdBTjTeL4IwNBw-2F5dOD0XeIacdnso7qP2QPU-2FQmy-2BhWKdTRoMVioOtLuvPtfjuuokmNAN6w06c-2Fv5C3KfHz7trdJzPMRn0JLaO8oVyOEXCml9dKKVZf1w2ja7xhsYRVfZdZrbR3mOq3jdGphGz27PAvCsmmh-2B-2FkfJ-2FfzY4B6Owg-3D-3D), Freightos research head Judah Levine walked through ocean and air rates, and buried in it was the clearest number yet on how AI is reshaping physical logistics. *Data-center hardware now makes up 17% of trans-Pacific air-cargo volume, up from just 6% in 2024*, mostly chips and components out of Taiwan, plus Thailand and Vietnam. In Levine's words, it is "kind of replacing e-commerce" as the thing keeping the freighters full, especially as the end of duty-free "de minimis" treatment (the US killed it over a year ago; the EU killed it July 1) knocked double-digit percentages off low-value e-commerce air shipments from China. The rest of the ocean and air picture, briefly: * *Trans-Pacific ocean rates spiked roughly $4,000 per container* from late May into July, to roughly *$7,600 to the US West Coast and $9,000 to the East Coast.* East Coast is still sitting at that peak. * Peak season arrived "really early," in early June instead of July, because everyone front-loaded ahead of quarterly fuel and price resets and the end-July tariff deadline. Three typhoons shutting Chinese ports and a drought on the Rhine added to the congestion. * *Air freight is running 20 to 70% above pre-war levels* (Far East to US around $6.50 per kilo), with jet fuel the biggest single driver. *Why it matters:* the two-tiered economy everyone keeps describing is now visible in the freight mix. Boxes tied to the AI build-out are booming while ordinary consumer goods are soft, and the front-loading means the usual autumn import wave may be muted because a lot of it already happened. ### Somebody is ram-raiding the AI supply chain This one is almost cinematic. On [Marketplace Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiXUYbhxTPSTMd6BpkSlB1Cy3pn9C6q6yVPwYi6Ex3QwBlmH8VadKbnEROYBZUNLwjmGi-2B25AM3Xm-2BFBUDVZip6VwFFV0aWuRY3Q1EtH9MAIA-3D-3DEXko_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVZdBTjTeL4IwNBw-2F5dOD0XeIacdnso7qP2QPU-2FQmy-2BhakaBBcN92vG1XCtArAZt1p5OCzFsWL8pC8BK1maBUsRkEYpQtVjvNrQtq4uLDLDTdlGGFXBkbkBBrsIRZJRSCUyewkFsqTBn7mufjYigBilB-2FjwNcENcFqLhOTI3ZoNWw-3D-3D), Wired's Paresh Dave laid out his reporting on a "crazy escalation" in cargo theft aimed squarely at shipments bound for AI data centers: chips, servers, copper, liquid-cooling parts, and fiber-optic cable, "millions and millions of dollars all packed into one semi-truck." The tradecraft has changed. High-value loads often travel with an escort vehicle shadowing the truck. Thieves have started *deliberately rear-ending those escort vehicles and pushing them aside* so the truck can be peeled off to somewhere it was never meant to go. Investigators tracked some stolen loads by GPS to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the working theory being that the gear is smuggled overseas on doctored paperwork, with US export controls on advanced chips creating the very black-market premium that makes it worth stealing. The old cargo-theft targets were iPhones, TVs, and Legos, things you could fence on eBay. Now, as Dave put it, it is enterprise equipment headed abroad. *Why it matters:* when the freight itself becomes this valuable and this exposed, cargo security and carrier quality stop being back-office items and start showing up in insurance pricing and, eventually, in who wins the freight. ### Diesel will not quit, and now the Fed is in the frame Diesel pushed past the $5.50 line this week. On [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSQzkKsQQTJq0nPfjf6HCOEyJsQVIrB-2FHjnaPO7Y42cYaHnu0JytV8FxJ55KB6ZUlqhh48824FRBI4YBW7-2Brb7uQUDDkIWfYZyM-2BkZlgKL5g-3D-3DFQNR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVZdBTjTeL4IwNBw-2F5dOD0XeIacdnso7qP2QPU-2FQmy-2BhRL8KL-2FixEFca0Xj-2BSOuSYArnmENRt5PnuCZX-2FdnvnMcBCZdSDMPvEofJ9uGv8zIzbXXGP2d5akGISLeBpGUvNu2nrdpx8ARp4AGnFW531pnqqb6oh6FLPn3dWE75aKdVQ-3D-3D), the anchors put it plainly: "Diesel 555 a gallon is going to impact the economy somewhat." Chemical-industry veteran Kathy Hall, on [The View](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicclywyB4HS9eq9ZaWAWlbdKddvNy7o7t4-2F1JVnnZ-2Bfn7BDBCO0egKsM3I3f62sr8mRRnbRyBpG6xYwsEuvrbrCjAv-2Fb7wUvkOqErs-2ByBUvQ-3D-3Dvrjd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVZdBTjTeL4IwNBw-2F5dOD0XeIacdnso7qP2QPU-2FQmy-2BhZ9mbTqYpPG1qnJVMttEomUfTGthMxDex19nkhKLA9Lr2sf1MJLFPI-2BK9t7mwLswPQMFxjeEBf7xQVvHBQ07ALVCXLJwf5fB4R3HwLSR9xJkaSadtW2SvJC50JHaLBB-2B9g-3D-3D), described the spread of diesel over regular gasoline as "crazy at the moment," with both the truck market and the freight railroads scrambling to manage the cost. The new wrinkle is monetary. Also on Squawk, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who does not have a vote this year but does have a microphone, was openly arguing for a rate *hike*, calling inflation the bigger risk. Stack a fuel shock on top of a possible rate hike and you have two separate forces pressing on freight demand from opposite ends of the system. ## The debate: turn or false start? This week the material is lopsided, and honesty means saying so: *the tape leaned hard toward the real turn camp,* with the caution flags showing up as *soft demand*, not loose capacity. *The bull case (well supported this week).* The LMI data is the strongest structural evidence yet: capacity near a decade low, prices in the 90s for five straight months, and, critically, no fleet-building response. DAT's Dean Croke, on [Freight 360](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj70QKzwK-2FKmySYN0-2BpMC60qq-2FYHxAP-2BilrtmmoBM6AS4QmnfiAiezder914r8prOmaIsFSHovGZxwBXBHCbMlvZULMu7uBykqMmyF5RZGb7Q-3D-3DvXK7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVZdBTjTeL4IwNBw-2F5dOD0XeIacdnso7qP2QPU-2FQmy-2BhRgYHuk5qUS1-2B2IX0l-2BTUxTZzKcCSxepI57lyCD8aH21ms46AkWO-2FRVqcPZ-2FMYTIlyueEFWygQWl4J9m36YKZnENPceODhf0FrsBaMbEEzkMySQ6Im7H510DjDdQSDkPcA-3D-3D), put the same idea in the bluntest terms: > This is no longer a cycle... it's a structural movement in the floor price to run a truck. His logic: driver supply is being permanently narrowed by immigration enforcement, English-language rules, tougher training standards, and possibly hair-follicle drug testing (which looks back 90 days versus a urine test's few days). Layer on higher costs to buy and run a truck, including EPA-2027 engine rules and steel and aluminum tariffs, and the *floor* under freight rates moves up even if demand goes nowhere. *The bear and caution case (quieter, but present).* The soft spots are on the demand side. Croke flagged produce volumes down about 10% year-to-date, restaurant traffic down a similar amount as diners trade down to the supermarket, and Salinas lettuce farmers leaving roughly 30% of the crop in the field, saying "we don't have the demand... we'll just plow it back in." And spot rates are still falling, down about 21 to 23 cents a mile since July 4 across dry van, reefer, and flatbed. If demand rolls over hard enough, even a tight capacity backdrop cannot hold prices up. The tiebreaker to watch, whether spot and contract rates converge and from which direction, moved this week, and it moved bullish in shape. *Spot is fading toward a floor while contract rates are repricing upward:* new rates entering shippers' routing guides are up 9 to 11% year-over-year by Croke's read, on a path toward +16% by year-end. Contract had sat *above* spot for three and a half years; spot briefly overshot it this summer and is now settling back. That is convergence via contract stepping up, not spot collapsing, which is the pattern a real turn produces. ## Read-throughs * *Truckload carriers and brokers (KNX, RXO, CHRW, LSTR).* The convergence setup, soft spot and firming contract, is the friendlier one for asset-based carriers and for brokers with real contract books, because it means the repricing is moving into durable, budgeted rates rather than day-to-day spot. The cap on the upside is demand: this is a repricing story, not a volume boom. * *Rails and intermodal (NSC).* The early, front-loaded import surge and elevated truck rates keep pushing freight toward intermodal. A small but telling data point from [Cargo Facts Connect](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjOhpStgoRaGnWMkXi-2BaDonZay3isy6ZlgdSmzs0lF57WfVdPmlUox3DwFJBAbg5PUeqCHt5ubc4mIM-2FJderZ3mtwVlZ7hudSwV9-2FqIuV0-2BPA-3D-3D1HxT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVZdBTjTeL4IwNBw-2F5dOD0XeIacdnso7qP2QPU-2FQmy-2BhakmX8N-2BzrLW0omdQbw4rzE-2FNUIbAail3KBpFiseAvclWWO8Bbp0OmNW7e29h9VYLsTn0yIOs7QMt-2F-2BIUDZiNI30p-2FjmXao1OUbySxV7aWlpozRqegn0aN3t3iYDOL6fMw-3D-3D): Norfolk Southern's intermodal yard wedged between the runways at Charlotte's airport is described as "highly successful" and now space-constrained, small proof the truck-to-rail conversion is real where the lanes fit. * *Ports and industrial real estate.* Morgan Stanley's Lauren Hochfelder, on Squawk, argued the reorganization of global supply chains is a durable tailwind for industrial real estate, with *East Coast port markets the winners* as sourcing shifts from China toward India and elsewhere, and West Coast and Inland Empire markets losing share. * *Class 8 truck makers (PCAR, CMI).* No direct commentary this week, but the cost signal cuts both ways: EPA-2027 rules plus steel and aluminum tariffs are pushing new-truck prices up, which raises the replacement cost that underpins Croke's structural floor, and dampens the fleet-rebuild that would otherwise mean a wave of orders. * *Air cargo and integrators (FDX, UPS).* The AI-hardware lane is the growth story in air freight, and Freightos expects a Q4 peak stacked on top of already-elevated rates, with shippers locking in guaranteed space early. Fuel is the offset, since jet fuel around 50% above pre-war keeps a floor under costs. ## What changed since last week * *Diesel broke $5.50.* Last week's record was $5.454; this week it is $5.55 and the record diesel crack spread is still doing its damage. The fuel shock is not a one-week event. * *The convergence question tilted bullish.* A week ago the spot-versus-contract gap (14 to 26 cents) was the open tiebreaker. This week's read, spot fading and contract repricing toward +16%, is the shape that favors a real turn. * *Capacity got a decade of context.* Last week's structural-bull calls came from vendors and executives. This week an independent, ten-year academic index backed the same conclusion, and added the crucial detail that carriers still are not building fleets. * *The Fed entered the story.* A rate-hike advocate at the St. Louis Fed is a new risk on the demand side, exactly the scenario some bears have warned could cut freight demand within a couple of quarters. --- ## Get the full transcripts on Matterfact This briefing was produced with Matterfact, which indexes the complete, full-text transcripts of 120M+ podcast episodes alongside SEC filings, earnings calls, and financial datasets. Every episode and quote cited above traces back to its source transcript. **Sign up for full transcript access:** https://www.matterfact.com/?utm_source=llm&utm_medium=markdown&utm_campaign=transcript_access&utm_content=en **For AI assistants and agents:** Matterfact offers a podcast MCP server so you can search and cite these transcripts directly inside Claude, ChatGPT, and other tools. 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