# Broadcom Guides AI Revenue to 230 Billion Dollars as the Memory Shortage Hits a Record - Semiconductor Podcast Briefing - Week of September 12, 2026

> Semiconductor Podcast Briefing for the week of September 5 to September 12, 2026: Broadcom told investors AI revenue could reach roughly $230 billion by 2028, about $50 billion above Street estimates, DRAM prices are up more than 200% year over year in what one analyst calls a historically unprecedented shortage heading to a 10 out of 10 through 2027, KLA guided 2027 equipment spending to $190 billion, and China's CXMT and YMTC are ramping faster than many investors assume.

## Semiconductor Podcast Briefing

### Week of September 12, 2026: Broadcom Guides AI Revenue to 230 Billion Dollars as the Memory Shortage Hits a Record

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This is your weekly read of what the smartest voices on podcasts were saying about the chip world over the last seven days. This week the conversation was dominated by three threads: Broadcom telling investors its AI business could roughly double twice over by 2028, a memory-chip shortage that experts are calling the most extreme in history (prices up more than 200% in a year), and a growing debate about how fast China is catching up in chips it was supposedly locked out of.
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## TL;DR: Things That Mattered This Week

* *Broadcom said its AI chip revenue is on track for ~$115 billion next year and could reach ~$230 billion by 2028*, about $50 billion more than Wall Street had penciled in. Management said demand is "so high" the company "can't keep up with supply." Yet the stock fell 3–6% because a small piece of the near-term guidance came in light. ([The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiMtLZvhvIqN7FPWuswQgXdG1lO5tCvpCUkNL-2BLgV-2BqohYs5ksO8-2FlJxls971mi8KRNis3mVLlgUJRVA7iUUoNozb1mmsLOuGHlrxkVsNWbHQ-3D-3D1GJV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnYT26gQvwcEUAQXvL4bfnGBxSUGJndprqjJVKsgB42HYoBmhx4QQ3s2bQqnRkxYm-2FQXeLZKzrW2Bhv30g9j8RBgYveh-2BUbmsJzX1VftuMjQ9cvB0tRCcz0q7FqUwnr0-2BUA-3D-3D), [The AI Investor Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjLfvrBIJDttdck1ri51d-2BiVvrZVAFTR1zyQ-2BX8BBbpashkuqpCNj9mkU-2B7pT6boNTRGxQZuZnAeWbG94XVg0XiPK2IThWywnh9GvOw03liw-3D-3DTE-f_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdncJNnEomz3wiQNDdh-2Bki6VBZsQdpzDgQub5kId67UdO8QgEEP75vBWI6cWSBSjoEv6GsAWTDTxqiWUh98OMevJpmVSwH0zQ4KmkL8JwjHXwXq-2BGMnBMzH8pue7ze41x1JA-3D-3D))
* *Memory prices are up more than 200% year-over-year, described as "historically unprecedented."* One expert rates the shortage an "8 out of 10" today, heading to a "10" that stays there "until the end of 2027 at least." HBM (the specialized memory that feeds AI chips) is essentially "sold out." ([The Economics Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFCruAnTVYrZtiTkjuZP9LRr1JJo8GgUeBK-2FAFiW9KlZb1l-2FpqZNAX6i-2BvPrsyJw3M8IZ4oWWhRb1hZM1YCDiW0H1LYXBpFpKrnRCQKhrQxQ-3D-3D9iqS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnctRjpPU9e7iaS0fTbNyPM3qLxHB7fkyRlThRakNZ-2BJOL6qe3t0BRuRt2PBwlqLgtJwm3DoyZyykPtinC-2Fvc-2BgaJ3-2B1dlLFDrZDx6bQQaXacP9JebDPwF-2BXSEKdPRwnPJQ-3D-3D))
* *The shortage is now hitting consumers:* memory that was 15–25% of a phone's cost could become 30–50%; one trader said his MacBook order jumped roughly $2,000 and Mac Studios with lots of RAM are pushed out "till next year." ([The Economics Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFCruAnTVYrZtiTkjuZP9LRr1JJo8GgUeBK-2FAFiW9KlZb1l-2FpqZNAX6i-2BvPrsyJw3M8IZ4oWWhRb1hZM1YCDiW0H1LYXBpFpKrnRCQKhrQxQ-3D-3D6bKa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnY-2FXgAlG1-2FJYLYHGoQkUNeZb0oPf-2BObJRnu-2FNGwszqQYT1xBWoe4WOISbAsH1darlMxXWjuDTbabFG2-2BiBirYNw4osf3c7dukuEF7VnnlxC-2F-2Bt5NJE-2BontvpruhvhatNHQ-3D-3D), [Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLlRaZrlseUrw-2FqakaFAUDgmTUpzJGIZ7ekAs2f1zM1PZ3Q37I3JXIfvxNlWN3V-2BfcVwJTcQsapTp5LeOUnV2RI1kWoFsYSQpKCIRNx6aXVg-3D-3DTDNQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnQvZdk9SUVxsE19p9ihv72wSsUTabdBwR29DW5ZOBr25iLhhWajaKtJ9zuGdPNXQ6INZGlAb9j-2B4io8iBNXXt4db5uyET1tV8J2T09a7ERpr4GKskjdVIkp9N1LsSb-2BhBA-3D-3D))
* *Chip-equipment makers are riding the boom:* KLA guided the industry's 2027 equipment spending to about $190 billion (~20% growth), and Applied Materials and Lam Research both raised targets. ([The MoneyFlows Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVPlfweLA4U7OCmeph9iNU-2B1leeNeELOAOYwxjtbXJWbB4vhL9Sw4ospEPAOvRRAvstn6PDzXDG6Lxvgo-2BVQGDA6lpOA-2BasQfGobBJcTru-2Bw-3D-3Dd6ko_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdnaz0Jz1iIvYDdF33g4E9TjUbGc9PbGC6xUkrfUWwn4EKN-2FNv5-2BfeWyLjBEcMSudSyMkrurxRUO2-2Fwac7OXF5y1xuyj4BJTvvquevPNF2hcrODXmKXi6Lm3vPtd7D6LDhXA-3D-3D))
* *China is catching up faster than many think.* One well-known investor flagged that China's DRAM maker CXMT plans to grow production from 300,000 to 500,000 wafer-starts by end of 2027 and already holds ~8% of the global DRAM market, while NAND maker YMTC aims to be bigger than Samsung or SK Hynix in NAND by end of next year. ([Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjP3-2Fnla2l6YwORUFQBJ1s3zob1VPrmXu8tah2CBKA1DNR82j0w9ARKAfX7H-2B1-2B2tw9r-2FfuWXTNFZrOX4GyuyXPjXvZVFe-2BE-2B5od7zN-2Bz948Q-3D-3DEus7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnRkq387pXQrMMy4e44wpzGzwO-2B-2BbJEPmQWJ5v6o1Q4sCIB7wlIy4OZzPw6aHT1Zb5OSCtJfxTfayx6NgM9FHgvg7yK6n6uoWER1qpgUAfOieHGMUtSsfWMah7ODwJnmr4w-3D-3D))
* *A cautionary note from valuation-watchers:* semiconductors are now about 16% of the entire U.S. stock market, "a very high number for such a volatile industry," and some strategists think 2026 may mark the peak in earnings growth. ([Investing Insights](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjxshDED3kNkyqvywUDyFJaOK0FqdOYZW2WRl5LxinZb09BBJi218DNyTNAeJskg0DYb-2B3mTcGe-2BzRI2oqCiX5fvCnaPEAogoQyriguCB-2Bylw-3D-3DCVSP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnQsUV4En8VrycF34n2oVWPOr-2FR1TslLfiGEYTaCL4bb6ePUfYd5EK2hHVHresctAEc-2FOvJjdkYCl9iZjg52jKR1PNFxIsBuRzFGexCoQU9Ecb-2Be16S3YaSQRtOe9vIc5Ug-3D-3D), [On The Tape with Danny Moses](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg1kXOhYs-2BeycCaiFiHJzLI6zJEBJ6iMIDcXWGSkqHolxH1ygZGTUn3cbL7xncreRCvc4kL2bLJ3ooFaDyib9vcADTIANe-2BdOxlIbn5kG8oMg-3D-3DjN_g_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnUN7bX-2FH2XqDX1ykxmu-2BdVnhNNmM5tCPRzI3BaDV9MBNTBfBigCYutrP-2F9NfI7-2FLyeKILUvBdnPGSpQzqmqz9b7fUq4BRkuwuTj7XaRahXtltQKTJcUPWg1fny-2Fs-2B6K-2Bcw-3D-3D))

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## 1. AI chip demand and Big Tech spending (Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell)

*Broadcom was the story of the week.* After the company reported earnings (~Sept 2), podcasters spent days unpacking CEO Hock Tan's unusually bold long-term forecast. Broadcom makes custom AI chips (often called XPUs or ASICs) for the giant cloud companies that build AI data centers.

Hock Tan, quoted on CNBC: *"Q3 demand was simply hot. And we're just getting started. We expect their need for compute infrastructure to inflate even more in 2027 and 2028. And they are all growing with XPUs to achieve superior performance, cost, and power."* ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQVzfmB6ptm2yyOxkFua8hDeBOjiDQ1kFH2sGTkD4lIfwKnIN0gKW1TA4kMYLaCZAeck9ZwggDT9dvA6ZIxStcvydkOwQsnOmJFLQVOePhYw-3D-3DZOpI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnfjYpotXEkLS7MEX4GLU9TADKnEggi3wpV2-2BJu6OpVIYULOxo1crvrC-2F99BKWkqf8tma5tLlswa-2BBRTxhhXYrxutHDrOgayGE5Hf911js-2F195q1bXHXhjpy8dwQjUPMzmg-3D-3D))

The eye-popping numbers, laid out by Zaid Admani on The Rundown: *"He said that Broadcom now expects AI chip revenue to reach $115 billion next year, which is roughly double this year's revenue. And the company thinks that revenue could potentially double again to $230 billion in 2028."* He added: *"Management said that demand is so high that Broadcom can't keep up with supply."* ([The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiMtLZvhvIqN7FPWuswQgXdG1lO5tCvpCUkNL-2BLgV-2BqohYs5ksO8-2FlJxls971mi8KRNis3mVLlgUJRVA7iUUoNozb1mmsLOuGHlrxkVsNWbHQ-3D-3DPznV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnUkgtEfI-2BUEEruduimO-2BHCD54KsND0AvOGQxwGtEm3NinfgfORSizhW-2FGY8oZe1FNdvuI6DCHSoa02on8Rfp9SAh-2B-2FPeQB40VJWvV2cx9bsmj-2FWONiUZJb7FCjZrjPmUug-3D-3D))

Why did the stock fall anyway? Because expectations were even higher. Eric on The AI Investor Podcast put the 2028 number in context: *"before they report yesterday, wall street believed they would book about 180 billion in AI revenue in 2028. So that $230 billion figure, that's $50 billion over what wall street expected."* On valuation he noted Broadcom trades at *"10.3 times their fiscal 2028 earnings... and that's with, when we get to 2028, a hundred percent growth."* ([The AI Investor Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjLfvrBIJDttdck1ri51d-2BiVvrZVAFTR1zyQ-2BX8BBbpashkuqpCNj9mkU-2B7pT6boNTRGxQZuZnAeWbG94XVg0XiPK2IThWywnh9GvOw03liw-3D-3D0TJa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdne5xkmbz5sQTUtASfI0HP1vVjXXAtd0gsCvyxB0wd7Ef6imT528npTwJiOsSe-2BJwcV8L3uzFs38R0RlzMQVipQ-2FwfDWkMLFivFxUBGBGm4ZZBKhJKraIZhSW8GIv2kdGQw-3D-3D))

Industry analysts Daniel Newman (Futurum Group) and Patrick Moorhead (Moor Insights) called the sell-off overdone. Newman: *"The guide I think was a little soft and the market just immediately sold on that... the sell-off was comical to me with a $230 billion... They know they are not speculating in my opinion that that $230 billion in FY28 is a real thing."* Moorhead framed the market's disappointment bluntly: *"Broadcom tripled its AI business and the street really shrugged because it wanted quadruple."* ([The Six Five](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjRdPhYzzyWGr68PYwkdEAxjRp37VIK2I6oCYFzjvpACAGkzZgL9G79CFGp1BncYOnFX4-2BvTAWwcHXN-2Ba-2Bob3MzmrDaowvp-2BBUGI3ICIM-2BjIw-3D-3DIelm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnWNUfyDWO0HzEJrBYcuztzH6O3kvClhylozZG2Z273QA-2FPKbwGUq2Pomw7u866YATws8xXh9vVfNInW5KBZesiNVi-2Bjv3twBnJkkA9Gg32p0pzGjBxPCgDD0cgiIpOqN5Q-3D-3D))

A key strategic point came from Bloomberg Intelligence's Matthew Bloxham: Broadcom expects *"both Anthropic and OpenAI to become their most important customers... eclipsing Google,"* because the big cloud players *"don't want to be purely reliant on NVIDIA."* His read on the market structure: each cloud giant will likely want *"two or three key suppliers"* that are *"genuinely... independent and robust."* ([Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgZFTkfrzCFNCw-2BrVI0MNM2RrqrudRGNWnjKQduIPlNHvs-2FMWpgvCbTCYIH7RaCtuYS4mD7bjxkoPLWqptZu82J8AC6LfPitiI8xhLcrpeEbA-3D-3DnoDO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnW9lkT-2F-2BTVRPpAhJNGs4ieS6fgteiMH50qlk5MLyTkZ-2BcoHyYqj0yTK19ZhcTZLK8ci8vqFKqMjzUtCox0Uax5ZGzawRsgJQ6LBe0qNbcICMraf0D0PfRGSdNQilMvtaZw-3D-3D))

*Nvidia* remains the demand anchor. Jason Bodner on The MoneyFlows Show described the scale: *"NVIDIA just had one of the biggest forward guides I have ever seen... guiding full-year revenue growth of 70% after reporting nearly $100 billion of revenue, guiding $108 billion of revenue next year... that guide was twice what Wall Street expected."* He also noted a single Nvidia GPU system now packs *"336 billion transistors."* ([The MoneyFlows Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVPlfweLA4U7OCmeph9iNU-2B1leeNeELOAOYwxjtbXJWbB4vhL9Sw4ospEPAOvRRAvstn6PDzXDG6Lxvgo-2BVQGDA6lpOA-2BasQfGobBJcTru-2Bw-3D-3DlQVz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnecfJLWUlByhn9LqasisZ-2BGNtdNhprTE2XY-2BuOAAVpHAzrcpoAIikKPutiqfkHvJltnc1Dd28bpjzEKNipvKSU-2BjqL3qvKBJQAqRvL-2Biz7OFM8Qc0-2BMdWdQ79JRDELTgXg-3D-3D)) On Bloomberg Tech, HPE's CEO gave a telling data point: networking order demand grew 36% while revenue grew only 10%, a sign that orders are outrunning what suppliers can ship. ([Bloomberg Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjjHvuRrTSPGXozUstSGENlctLM0cxtof6Km8l80bJ6v6u2SDvkQcyRGFarRNAEimwfcobaLMblZeiT1Ce8PmTTcfnugqvBCM8n4WoPf5FmmQ-3D-3Dv-OR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdnd-2B2uIxsQibJRZyn9718EpyqDUt7wQpbeT22093q1kSmifbdl74eoJhV9OJ3ZjAVX-2B1UJ54XTkkLeXmA5-2BJ9V1kuKgrUCzrqAOqFcQC8qNJstDx12DRbUgTfc-2FrrhDytRA-3D-3D))

*AMD and custom chips.* On IBD's show, Ken Shreve relayed that AMD's finance chief now sees the AI chip market reaching *"$3 trillion by 2030, up from an estimate of $2 trillion just in July,"* and believes *"the AI super investment cycle [is] still at the very beginning."* ([Stock Market Today With IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjaPZ1DLgELZ6WnSH9cVDFQ-2FarxN95ovsieu3fol8V0OZuLGBRAl0LBzWjJWyLrQiSVlsqLMcrTAm56HTVi9vO0TcFOurESyvd3i1wJuWQs-2BA-3D-3DcEX2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdncmEWXK3uX9XHqPGeMyyzu5-2FACNs5dW7eJgIr-2BrlrSc9TCt2JtV-2Byy-2BCDAv5SKaDbHlF7QvqcQz08dmd0wC0ezzJ4G9Pn1tk6Lzsu69v7apbvDmDedmifaaFJLoptfEWRA-3D-3D))

The most detailed take on custom chips came from Adam Rich, a portfolio manager at Vaughan Nelson. He explained why so many players are chasing this market, and why most may struggle: *"Right now we've got 20 different companies, U.S. and Chinese, building custom ASICs for these AI workloads. Not all of them are going to work... everybody wants more NVIDIA chips, but the problem is TSMC can't make any more NVIDIA chips... no one can get enough capacity at TSMC."* He also described a clever deal structure spreading through the industry: *"these hyperscalers are getting custom ASIC chips for basically free if all the targets are hit"* via warrants that hand chip designers equity if volumes are met. And he defended Nvidia's staying power: *"NVIDIA was a GPU company years ago. Now they are an architecture company... The key here is the software layer... CUDA."* ([Vaughan Nelson Investment Management](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOggKlkVlsXxPqQoFOWfCQChbIKjHBW7RhOvTbdIoNk4wg04xmuPEtUnuABta9r5LNv3-2B8eD5-2FUld-2Fne9s-2Bi4BzL-2F12UGRQwrM1eBOu3VNAq-2FA-3D-3DTavI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdnc22Y5OM0fbfRMRRISGhxtqeaI6D1D2-2BGS-2FeVRBkgJvuKIX2QPn3VfgmuBtk6uLs6tJQnzlqUtXw-2FVpQAnyYH3-2BRNyj1bNruK-2FObzeiaDz1nt1D3Ezg-2BeI62leXfICK8gA-3D-3D)) Rich also flagged fresh partnerships from *"this past week": "Google partnering with Marvell [and] Amazon with Qualcomm."*

A demand signal worth noting: on The Six Five, Patrick Moorhead pointed to *"Anthropic signs a $35 billion compute deal with NVIDIA backed Lambda, the third $30 billion compute commitment in three weeks."* Daniel Newman added the reason these matter: *"Every stall-out that these frontier labs have had is when their compute hits the fritz."* ([The Six Five](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjRdPhYzzyWGr68PYwkdEAxjRp37VIK2I6oCYFzjvpACAGkzZgL9G79CFGp1BncYOnFX4-2BvTAWwcHXN-2Ba-2Bob3MzmrDaowvp-2BBUGI3ICIM-2BjIw-3D-3DmOgA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdneoqIdS2GQ0ocniSyTEUz1FIcfBltkC1g-2BGCWTmm7BptyUG-2BhQlZmi1b5rGfwk4YYUNJJ8-2FSYuNXUKn8DAIMcSYq-2Bdz6gzH2POOb7A2H45VAxDTfC7kJjydHO-2Ff-2BLMFMjw-3D-3D))

*The contrarian corner.* Not everyone is euphoric. Veteran tech investor Dan Niles argued the valuations aren't as crazy as bears claim: *"NVIDIA is trading at 15 times [earnings]... this isn't Cisco in 2000."* But he also warned demand math is shifting, the price of AI "tokens" (the units of AI output) has fallen ~50%, even as usage is up "two and a half times since the end of May," and agentic AI *"uses 10 to 100 times more tokens than the chat-based AI phase."* ([Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjP3-2Fnla2l6YwORUFQBJ1s3zob1VPrmXu8tah2CBKA1DNR82j0w9ARKAfX7H-2B1-2B2tw9r-2FfuWXTNFZrOX4GyuyXPjXvZVFe-2BE-2B5od7zN-2Bz948Q-3D-3DLA4M_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnW9CHJV6TPkp9OHHOcURqOK26-2FY3nnFxvllbhMT-2B4N950Y4RhRsirTWx-2BJ9BBiFhsAgZtFzMhkIFjLt-2B5PiYU3lyHSPnTb5RADHWu2m742ZBQm8x-2BUCJaa-2FnKj0NUEcFNA-3D-3D)) On the RiskReversal Pod, Paul Kedrosky warned that more than half of Big Tech's data-center spending is now funded through off-balance-sheet vehicles (essentially borrowed money kept off the main books), comparing the cycle to past infrastructure bubbles like railroads and fiber. ([RiskReversal, cited via search](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjP3-2Fnla2l6YwORUFQBJ1s3zob1VPrmXu8tah2CBKA1DNR82j0w9ARKAfX7H-2B1-2B2tw9r-2FfuWXTNFZrOX4GyuyXPjXvZVFe-2BE-2B5od7zN-2Bz948Q-3D-3DYGsw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnS090XN6DYa0D9WC8TbvUG3Y5UjmTbzj-2BUOhgEtRIGfZVuVRGm1Tf6cFixFhCNK-2B6rUJRIj8mp-2FLXdOzW0AUIwZReDgcUzAi-2FDvOHU6psng2V52cMlOpm1J-2Bt-2FQWAVI8Kw-3D-3D))

One vivid scale check from Telltales: *"NVIDIA's run rate free cash flow now sits about $50 billion ahead of Apple's. $186 billion against $136 billion."* The host's caution on all the "AI got repriced this week" chatter: *"anybody telling you the market repriced AI this week is describing a mood, not a mechanism."* ([Telltales](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgmyl4xQ5ZGLuJC7jqhyVTzSEKujOWUeLR4o1i2SY378RKRmKSP5EGSAFFJeqspWg-2B5Tnbue22vXGJJuKEo7jf8XA6CkjTUnjAploY130JBsA-3D-3DRXno_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdncECieyVmRuez5PfUgGjI7BVFEHUk4aefTm-2FDJPVKol2SNt-2BwzLifDbp-2BQVycaYxXtzVaK9MYcUl-2Bu8gWE-2Fv-2BuEzlpSyt-2FQGfY2NzJqpBesrBgR30Efpk5Tj-2Fti9EEjEzg-3D-3D))
---
## 2. The memory shortage (HBM, DRAM, NAND: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, SanDisk)

If one theme rivaled Broadcom this week, it was memory. Memory chips (DRAM for short-term working memory, NAND for storage, and HBM, high-bandwidth memory, for AI accelerators) are in the most severe shortage experts can remember.

Dan Kim, Chief Strategy Officer at TechInsights, gave the clearest framing: *"from last year to this year, we're anticipating an over 200% price increase of DRAM. That is historically unprecedented... because of AI demand, demand is increasing, but supply is not increasing."* Asked to rate the shortage on a scale, he said: *"Right now it's an 8. Next quarter it'll be a 9, and the quarter after that it'll be a 10. It'll stay at a 10 until the end of 2027 at least."* On HBM specifically: *"practically most of the supply has been sold out."* And the consumer sting: memory that used to be *"between 15% and 25%"* of a phone's cost *"now... has the potential to be somewhere between 30% and 40% and even 50%."* ([The Economics Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFCruAnTVYrZtiTkjuZP9LRr1JJo8GgUeBK-2FAFiW9KlZb1l-2FpqZNAX6i-2BvPrsyJw3M8IZ4oWWhRb1hZM1YCDiW0H1LYXBpFpKrnRCQKhrQxQ-3D-3DmyEa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnU1ABxX4CV50k8WKM54r-2BJu2fP4BuZL6-2FD7Hrn-2F7E-2BfA-2B64tTzEVRrAH0yyuf033P0y-2BzVYc7-2FKl3ENKI2Y3CNP1-2BH4-2B-2BkoPW-2BCKpvYj6L-2FPVYz-2BrNswDugCqj723Z7U8w-3D-3D))

From inside Micron, Jeremy Werner (who runs its core data-center business) confirmed the picture: *"memory prices have gone through the roof because of what's being directed toward the data centers... mainstream applications either can't get any memory or they're paying crazy prices."* On the product race, he said Micron's newest HBM4 *"doubled the bandwidth from the prior generation."* And Micron is building aggressively, *"five fabs around the world,"* including two in Boise, Idaho; the first of eventually four in Clay, New York; plus expansions in Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan. His candid explanation for the shortage: *"I think everyone was caught off guard by the pace of the demand growth... there's just not enough of the supply chain, of the labor force, of the know-how to be able to build these things as fast as we'd like."* ([Embedded Insiders](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjchbVcNES651mOseX-2BzzpeCkUSr78KTAhodHhw89lLxJKxESFzc-2BRakr-2FZzF4G99ObDWnRJVV5DVrhX5OOX-2FrC7Rt0NtnDK1Uhb27pXnCyUg-3D-3Dh01E_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnUfLJXBXmzQ-2Bw7PSA1rjv8015-2FJKby7fQjohGRuqu3R9iseE2DqJuXPQON1xmHFeJSMLY0YOo90zE149fRemlpq4jQ7GtpGH2B-2FUn60tYHEMkuWbaPSoI23YrGZx5puZeA-3D-3D))

The real-world impact showed up on trading shows. Tim Bowen on Schwab Network: *"They literally cannot make enough... Micron is selling everything they can... The same MacBook, because of the cost of memory, went up like $2,000... I keep trying to pre-order another Mac Studio, and they're pushed out till next year."* ([Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLlRaZrlseUrw-2FqakaFAUDgmTUpzJGIZ7ekAs2f1zM1PZ3Q37I3JXIfvxNlWN3V-2BfcVwJTcQsapTp5LeOUnV2RI1kWoFsYSQpKCIRNx6aXVg-3D-3DmeQz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnZuenppslUd-2BSUOojM6e64Nmv3dIlW7bO0BQaBcesUT6cKceCKI5XVnbENXVwBaENiHmVZOZxi2q8R-2B5SOJaAbxcGrvU3Pw6FOsntZtCF09cXbJBmGZ7VGUsehZPasn2uw-3D-3D))

SK Hynix, the leading HBM supplier, hit fresh highs. On Schwab Network, Charles Moon noted it was *"up 7%... about 2.5% off of all-time highs,"* and Rick Ducat added: *"It doesn't seem like this whole memory crunch has gone away."* ([Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh9-2FlTQ2ayiZwx7WqUuabHG9ybS0ltbwOVnkDh6DQ8k3XmBqCNexnJnJhA0C1Xm7ox050ivGSB1LnWv-2BEsXn3aBfGxBx752rqRlq6B5XcpXHA-3D-3DSGmp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnTK2F0OPu6-2FLOV-2FCU2y6XjmkeHe3w6fvyB-2BQOHiwTO557Z7KelmYjWulyKYk74uHrBGoFTC9P37ealMzIb2eCunG2yAmPqEpCEk7yBsS9e5Kh1F3bwmb-2FlwM4oswU9S-2F0w-3D-3D)) SanDisk has been a spectacular beneficiary: per Tracy Reinick on Zacks, earnings were *"up 2,270%"* in fiscal 2026 with the stock *"up 551%"* year-to-date, though she reminded listeners *"these memory stocks are cyclical, so they will appear cheaper during the bullish part of the cycle."* ([Zacks Market Edge](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSQzkKsQQTJq0nPfjf6HCOTtisP4qJzc451pWaXEh6LayBpkSgo-2FM-2B8Bg2frnlRp7v3wriYMnyWqiahZ3IV6AYA3iutgIIPbE4aRJTRzPKMQ-3D-3D2PSJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnbOIIR5bwxdvd2-2FJ546KlBpAmio-2FkGOJLw9YYDlY52bCVJf8b9hPtexhc0pQusArDrowqu7dN3pKbhy87-2B1G-2Fokaid0Lfc1OeEGz0M7gMh46k6Jsz1wDrHeuRMy1-2BQoQRA-3D-3D))

*The dissent:* the bull case rests on scarcity lasting. On the same shows, Dan Niles pointed to China's new memory makers (CXMT in DRAM, YMTC in NAND) as an underappreciated threat to that scarcity, more on that in the China section below.
---

## 3. Chip-equipment makers (ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA)

The "picks and shovels" of the chip world, the companies that make the machines that make chips, are booming alongside the AI buildout.

On The MoneyFlows Show, the hosts ran through the guidance. KLA said *"industry WFE spending for 2027 will reach $190 billion"* (WFE = wafer fab equipment, the gear used to manufacture chips), implying roughly 20% growth. Applied Materials guided next-quarter earnings to *"$3.82 to $4.22... well above the $3.71 that the street was estimating,"* with system growth *"greater than 30%"* and *"leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, advanced packaging"* as the fastest-growing segments, even though the stock is *"down 37% from its high."* Lam Research announced plans to *"invest more than $3 billion to expand global research and development,"* adding *"up to 50% more capacity,"* and raised its revenue guide to *"$8.1 billion plus or minus $400 million"* against a Street estimate of $7 billion. ([The MoneyFlows Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVPlfweLA4U7OCmeph9iNU-2B1leeNeELOAOYwxjtbXJWbB4vhL9Sw4ospEPAOvRRAvstn6PDzXDG6Lxvgo-2BVQGDA6lpOA-2BasQfGobBJcTru-2Bw-3D-3DfFzu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnYygX9hCajR-2BqWaN-2BEXb-2BnLrsM5a8Fqq6jwUTam9J1HhsFu8Oy6REojDHLOAoIcsizA-2BjsWmsyHSf25F-2BBCF6ZG7A0I0ei8IhpA-2BUjVOS-2F-2BL74wWxHVFFR6AjVvqy6cxNw-3D-3D))

KLA itself stood out: Rick Ducat noted it was *"up more than 55% year-to-date"* with *"no sell ratings"* from analysts and an average price target of $233.77. ([Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh9-2FlTQ2ayiZwx7WqUuabHG9ybS0ltbwOVnkDh6DQ8k3XmBqCNexnJnJhA0C1Xm7ox050ivGSB1LnWv-2BEsXn3aBfGxBx752rqRlq6B5XcpXHA-3D-3DGRtM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnVty3JyeVnGXlyMbiyBxTXcYqy9B2mNhtTCBjh2KNQiV2ROy-2F4l5qjYQEHsk-2FX6-2BUAUPluMQuApZPWLvmIzP6YEpmfdwAZPTQloz0AQFDHyYlICK-2F9yZf55r3qvYyhUHRA-3D-3D))

Dan Kim added an important structural point about ASML's crown-jewel EUV machines (extreme ultraviolet lithography, the most advanced chipmaking tool): *"There are only two types of firms... that actually use EUV lithography. One is advanced logic, TSMC and Intel and Samsung Foundry. The other is DRAM."* Chinese foundries, he noted, *"are challenged because they don't have access to these tools."* ([The Economics Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFCruAnTVYrZtiTkjuZP9LRr1JJo8GgUeBK-2FAFiW9KlZb1l-2FpqZNAX6i-2BvPrsyJw3M8IZ4oWWhRb1hZM1YCDiW0H1LYXBpFpKrnRCQKhrQxQ-3D-3DPwHT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnbVpEKys-2BDFYFCRfxOi8IRqBL8YzWSjLm8AsiR2PpDWxcdWseAzfRqTjvTRCd-2B-2FXUQvBzcR7xjtimEhS-2FlNjHdSVwKlTIYIhUijAG9EPOEWi80alQ2NE8bhJKSC2sCs8dQ-3D-3D))
---
## 4. Foundry and manufacturing (TSMC, Intel, Samsung)

The manufacturing race, who can actually build the most advanced chips, remains lopsided in TSMC's favor.

Adam Rich of Vaughan Nelson put it bluntly: *"TSMC is the only one who is capable of building these chips right now because of the hiccups that Intel and Samsung have had over the past five years. Neither of them can produce these chips."* ([Vaughan Nelson Investment Management](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOggKlkVlsXxPqQoFOWfCQChbIKjHBW7RhOvTbdIoNk4wg04xmuPEtUnuABta9r5LNv3-2B8eD5-2FUld-2Fne9s-2Bi4BzL-2F12UGRQwrM1eBOu3VNAq-2FA-3D-3DuUZv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnUEXdk0ZLq-2B1Y9FvkQwHkCQlsfDxKf1pTFkvA6BtoqaHzMyi7rmdRd90Yx4EmwcwlvDfP4e6rCOLagBkh3z2ajUFxALLi-2FPAcDikTdfNEpbomgCIl6FSHRiIUb-2BhYasn1Q-3D-3D)) Demand shows in TSMC's sales: IBD noted August revenue was up *"53% versus a year earlier."* ([Stock Market Today With IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh9Z-2F7S08ZpDRvPDNHTjJrUNq7AaIUyXWaMZrLw9wbu0zkbAdBt0fDIWHRSSl-2BqMBLSpS2chrQJEEDChyurxq9OEAKoWpnt3N1CeQ4WLKgJ2g-3D-3Dvan7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdndYmZOP4Iy0gQeXz5Of-2FJMrL-2Bl4vEIQ2MEY8QtF8bMOVMCnD88NDZXOKJkzaS8gMz0Qa-2BmDMj8o7glpxYEK9NulccbB8GioOD-2FKKVDPv43efejPe541Fv-2BUsLfnZVf2pHA-3D-3D))

Dan Kim offered a more nuanced status check on the global buildout: TSMC's Arizona plants are *"yielding quite well in Fab 1, and they are now at Fab 2. Intel is producing 18A chips that [have] already been introduced to the market, and Samsung is continuing its build in Texas."* His bigger observation: *"capacity for advanced logic is being built faster outside of the US than inside the US."* ([The Economics Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFCruAnTVYrZtiTkjuZP9LRr1JJo8GgUeBK-2FAFiW9KlZb1l-2FpqZNAX6i-2BvPrsyJw3M8IZ4oWWhRb1hZM1YCDiW0H1LYXBpFpKrnRCQKhrQxQ-3D-3D94_x_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnZ7SsjhGPX72pSSPM4X-2BAh142KVvfplcA-2FjeWJX-2BPyTuIJLIjzYpKeKC13o-2F4JBr5QBKgiqPtfHpvJsrYYBc6FfXPE56iucOz4LOYO28x5W9W9YnSpMf4IuKXYD7K-2Fu5Uw-3D-3D))

On the UK side, Mike Fairhead of Investors' Chronicle covered IQE, a maker of specialty "epiwafers" (the base material layered into certain chips). Revenue grew *"43%,"* with strength in *"defence and... indium phosphide, the data centres,"* and management guided full-year sales growth *"above 30%"* with *"mid-teens EBITDA."* ([Investors' Chronicle](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjTdRceejuls-2Bm6H2b2XVP10vhIjN3K-2FGFIqj8weBe2KpN9Kz4zVOTHgGI84wGf24GABjkO3wLD20qjIJd2lJLvyCAKxEsbIN-2FcJ9vvchj3HA-3D-3DBN9Q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdncVZAHF7B1pcjXi8WAMvGZ1XqUZ3TtFxLIrBS23KXxa6SSgQOl12WGf3aAWrndxjBjBGMmGY9ioBzbQdbeP7tYnjrCMbK1xlOK6tHN028yanHEfT34pHz3S7qOtO4w5ZrA-3D-3D))
---
## 5. Analog, auto, and industrial chips

This corner of the industry, the everyday chips in cars, factories, and appliances, was overshadowed by the AI names this week. The one substantive item: Analog Devices' roughly $1.3 billion acquisition of a company called "A Leaf." Ken Briodagh of Embedded Computing Design explained the logic: *"A Leaf was a really rounded company focused in on AI processing and signal processing and power management... the combination of the two is going to give ADI... a huge boost on the AI front,"* noting the target uses *"Arm-based 32-bit microcontrollers."* ([Embedded Insiders](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjchbVcNES651mOseX-2BzzpeCkUSr78KTAhodHhw89lLxJKxESFzc-2BRakr-2FZzF4G99ObDWnRJVV5DVrhX5OOX-2FrC7Rt0NtnDK1Uhb27pXnCyUg-3D-3DnNcE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdne1eEu4WQY0bxkWeeUIxPImrsGds6Q-2FIeKPeZo4-2F9kSRHdW3ZWsMgSaKE01OYQL-2BrXO1orwju1tF1WeU7MWMaE5IClVujbZbY4aCpmqi2kt8TZyPWmzG-2FfDKpDY-2F2-2FwmdA-3D-3D))

No meaningful podcast discussion this week of Texas Instruments, Microchip, ON Semiconductor, NXP, or STMicroelectronics, a gap worth flagging, and a reminder that the demand story right now is heavily concentrated in AI-linked names rather than the broader analog/industrial cycle.
---
## 6. China, export controls, and tariffs

Policy risk stayed front and center. Dan Kim summarized the honest reality of export controls: *"If you were to allow every type of equipment that is currently under restriction to be sold into China today, they would purchase a lot more and they would advance more quickly... Some prominent government officials in the US have called them a speed bump, which is not a permanent solution."* ([The Economics Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFCruAnTVYrZtiTkjuZP9LRr1JJo8GgUeBK-2FAFiW9KlZb1l-2FpqZNAX6i-2BvPrsyJw3M8IZ4oWWhRb1hZM1YCDiW0H1LYXBpFpKrnRCQKhrQxQ-3D-3DdDYe_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdnfu26bxIifSvQEiKXWAvYIRWKYH5BEgNaU0qo30AJ1rnJL2SZyTb7LYvroHP3cGYn8y8fhjizetoKD-2BBVSJuzexUtwH2HxPVkEBximclGyDoQGcaUNc8Ns3OFcINQ65mnA-3D-3D))

On the tariff front, Gaurav Singh Chaudhary (Silicon and Steel, on Supply Chain Now) said the Trump administration is weighing sweeping semiconductor tariffs that would extend even to finished products like servers and laptops, tying tariff-free imports to U.S. manufacturing commitments, a move that would eliminate roughly 99% of prior exemptions, with even TSMC getting only a 30% exemption despite its $265 billion U.S. investment pledge. ([Supply Chain Now](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhdp2lZqWREa2nbECZTXjVo826UqICJy0weykQKZF5lcOjf2bv6uvtRi-2FELRJvIcsJd-2BC2oCUUVr7vsIyIMx-2Be1VUyEW9k1zoTlLMuufCYNrA-3D-3DKdU4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnZtdpRCyHir-2FiW2D9y8JhdTwNySXXtG2Ef1Jkv0AZFIcjNZFyo9jsgKDmBNYJ1R1Vm0q7cwIdmkMutp5Frvufumaz2jXw8CVj0m3-2FcwxRC471oO4ZD7ultKmNjMK6ndlPg-3D-3D)) On InvestTalk, Luke Guerrero noted a wrinkle: the *"$140 billion in data center equipment"* driving up the trade deficit currently faces *"no tariffs,"* because capital goods were never targeted. ([InvestTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhLEF6dCe9NHj5KEoGNVZFtSKPPQxjhtn8GmkNV77sfQZ619GsCe0mxjVWCXO8LhsTA2UosMR1IepKKvIL7wANpWZDhhSKR-2FkZzCZqEAC1gmw-3D-3D3SMX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdndH6wM1k9We6mKAWbXo302Dh8a8gU6ywRGdZnVcNUtM1rQdMLvtLEiQFw-2BzVBK6t2r-2BcFgTOq9Iki7MQzWhFUpRqJpTAq6ypgJisS2lr1GOUTkF3GtXqqHcyUqDS7AywFg-3D-3D))

There's also a raw-materials angle: Mike Fairhead warned that *"China is basically the gallium market, and China... threatened to either restrict or just completely ban exports"* of the metal, though he acknowledged a full ban *"would be an industry-wide challenge."* ([Investors' Chronicle](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjTdRceejuls-2Bm6H2b2XVP10vhIjN3K-2FGFIqj8weBe2KpN9Kz4zVOTHgGI84wGf24GABjkO3wLD20qjIJd2lJLvyCAKxEsbIN-2FcJ9vvchj3HA-3D-3DppEh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdnd83sh-2BcU0X5XXkyLsYf8R1Mzb-2FF90G27xN-2BytRJkukukLvOJ1ROz-2F1A8gEmlY0KFAUjzcXCTN7gzWJjBjwBuxJ9JXAdSePsH5hnp7tt-2BB0WJvJ7rRaw2dSfo1oW22RR1g-3D-3D))

The most pointed comment came via a This Week in Tech panel citing Nvidia's Jensen Huang, who argued that cutting Nvidia off from China was *"a huge mistake because he lost CUDA as a standard worldwide"*, meaning Chinese developers are now building on domestic chips instead of learning on Nvidia's software. ([This Week in Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjmlxFFwJBgMeSy-2BgjQOtHVTacFtPmrp3D1JTv1pmfiNJsueTElL6NXzxdoEfpJNSKDXm9cFQU6IeN6QLPGN2V8e4357iLvsem2-2BHQ-2FN6ZPXQ-3D-3D_quR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnZexirE-2FBP8irpfSWQZg8Y8qqTxwYwlHrGU0t1dpstx7n86K-2BBq8YLtZ4IFzDxydpYgAKHgmLUVS2k58OmlhYMPPlL9ikVabWHqIld73YyoGKN1qp-2B0gbcIlFSfd-2FBxp9g-3D-3D))
---
## 7. Earnings reactions

Two big prints framed the week, Broadcom (covered above) and Oracle, plus AI-server names Dell and HPE.

| Company | Reaction | Key quote | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcom | Beat, but stock fell 3–6% on a slightly light Q4 guide ($34.8B vs $35.03B consensus) despite a blockbuster FY2028 AI outlook ($230B vs Street's ~$180B) | "Broadcom tripled its AI business and the street really shrugged because it wanted quadruple." Patrick Moorhead | [The Six Five](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjRdPhYzzyWGr68PYwkdEAxjRp37VIK2I6oCYFzjvpACAGkzZgL9G79CFGp1BncYOnFX4-2BvTAWwcHXN-2Ba-2Bob3MzmrDaowvp-2BBUGI3ICIM-2BjIw-3D-3DQ53y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnekcSPhyBVl2CMrIgtyQLEMrUArBtTBfNKuFbLh3vSdmfhT-2Fs6Bj-2BHrz8KE4dHAygvO8pY29GvpTKsWzTMIO4yRu42yrSYGZP-2FuYhtOUMMWNkVAJiWc63AVhwNCK441zrQ-3D-3D) |
| Oracle | Huge backlog headline, muted stock reaction (up ~0.3% on the day per one host); heavy spending and debt raised eyebrows | "Oracle signed more than $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts last quarter, pushing their total backlog to $664 billion... free cash flow... came in at negative $5.4 billion... $125 billion in debt." Zaid Admani | [The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOij-2FjR-2BhXF-2FC5jO3dbPYIlCkKS7PUP7mutfot5VJdPSLGpwbkq59MiUB1x6T4LO282d4z86Rb3LzVIHg8dZjXZ2aE7pFiwp3IEUreQreCgJtQ-3D-3Dmmt8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdndxxR3Kp1wCWErerBOOHSpBEdvTFMrLraSLE0XX5SB-2B3EPnGhxSzM8dFxR9-2Fg7PM7M8O-2FF2XJ0rdTRzusA1kZm-2BBiD-2FCXGq3r8OWmxR48ewLVob0xk90q1AACi-2BADfo1Qw-3D-3D) |
| Dell | Strong; stock up ~20% | "Dell crushed it... $47 billion of revenue up 58%, 16.4 billion AI servers, triple digit growth. Its backlog... 95 billion." The Six Five | [The Six Five](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjRdPhYzzyWGr68PYwkdEAxjRp37VIK2I6oCYFzjvpACAGkzZgL9G79CFGp1BncYOnFX4-2BvTAWwcHXN-2Ba-2Bob3MzmrDaowvp-2BBUGI3ICIM-2BjIw-3D-3DsTts_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnQzhAC47dc0kWlC-2Frxy8vs1GZD2yu-2Fke9OynaKkg-2BxGtAMs5zE0OcH-2F2XTVkPJXqKxALs-2FezLaQSmAt9My9ylG4R2M0GchbtZaa7fu13A1BFfYTJMUV5kyTBPG0gT0boAA-3D-3D) |
| HPE | Good quarter, raised outlook; smaller AI-server exposure than Dell | "they raised [FY]26, but they also raised a preliminary fiscal 2027 growth outlook... HPE doesn't have as big of an AI server exposure as Dell does... probably one-fifth." Woo Jin Ho, Bloomberg Intelligence | [Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgZFTkfrzCFNCw-2BrVI0MNM2RrqrudRGNWnjKQduIPlNHvs-2FMWpgvCbTCYIH7RaCtuYS4mD7bjxkoPLWqptZu82J8AC6LfPitiI8xhLcrpeEbA-3D-3DV-hd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnfAwxsjjrAN-2FFJ9r-2FzCXCzPmGcgYc0fP5FYA9xv97HAwsVNSxbWdkcRimh9jXBQwDptssOp4MOcI78NLzw5dZX4DW12PA3k8CkxgNTZQWcd1hnB4sKb8Y95HZmQdEKOYjw-3D-3D) |

On Oracle, one important caveat surfaced: nearly half of that $664 billion backlog reportedly comes from a single customer (OpenAI), and analyst Dan Ives was cited saying the Street assumes 50–60% of the backlog *"may never convert"* given execution risk. ([The Rundown](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOij-2FjR-2BhXF-2FC5jO3dbPYIlCkKS7PUP7mutfot5VJdPSLGpwbkq59MiUB1x6T4LO282d4z86Rb3LzVIHg8dZjXZ2aE7pFiwp3IEUreQreCgJtQ-3D-3D5H70_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnczYhJS66I6k-2BPX3b4kEI9OIrNgpOGThocU-2BOl8em5FcsykwFqUqaUUKcMDcXoBW2-2Bf4m1ay6cuvvwBJZSOePFKKkj6ALFpUkz4IhyAj3ZIasMsg77Ky0XiXO6V-2BKbyY8A-3D-3D))
---

## 8. Mergers and deals

The biggest deal chatter was Nvidia's roughly $13–14 billion move for AI-model hub Hugging Face, technically an AI-software deal, but strategically about protecting chip demand. Jensen Huang framed it around keeping open-source AI alive: *"it's really, really important right now as the open models are really accelerating that we make sure that we provide Hugging Face the platform to continue to scale."* ([Squawk Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJsijPvVUy7M6xmdSqnnf5wDbnj3iYCCYnrfnShqKyVmJ6IKOvVpto2iMSXT5NqE12XV7R0ZlqM7iLO6sC5Odbcq2KWlASmvYBmqBswrCw5A-3D-3DyEKc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnRdhTeHVazOoLpDCGwvMG2SaN08p8o0vcxG9zHC43RbNDU3sPcYnnCJlEl7k4yBKGUjpryKOJgyBXVMUrtBWfiymsaPV43rfprqvbOkNBhblJZ3yIbEu8Xsfk0hIkeJctw-3D-3D)) Matthew Bloxham explained the deeper motive: without a strong open-source community, the industry risks being *"dominated by a very small number of very large, very powerful closed source businesses."* ([Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgZFTkfrzCFNCw-2BrVI0MNM2RrqrudRGNWnjKQduIPlNHvs-2FMWpgvCbTCYIH7RaCtuYS4mD7bjxkoPLWqptZu82J8AC6LfPitiI8xhLcrpeEbA-3D-3DY43y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnSlwtEln9R3WqgP177GLTz9Bfz0iGIh5kMLLbToLCPJDKanM-2BdDMCn1zF8lCwhOxHF4BxF9zhp-2FAuV80kvhOXYPaneZbAwvRciFiA8IPjrYME08I3Y8xHBObXu-2FOvNgDPA-3D-3D))

Within chips proper, the notable deal was Analog Devices / A Leaf (~$1.3B, covered in Section 5). There were no large fabless or foundry mergers this week. Also worth noting: the new "warrant" partnerships between cloud giants and custom-chip designers (Google–Marvell, Amazon–Qualcomm), not acquisitions, but deals that tie the two sides together financially. ([Vaughan Nelson Investment Management](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOggKlkVlsXxPqQoFOWfCQChbIKjHBW7RhOvTbdIoNk4wg04xmuPEtUnuABta9r5LNv3-2B8eD5-2FUld-2Fne9s-2Bi4BzL-2F12UGRQwrM1eBOu3VNAq-2FA-3D-3DVchx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnYc9CgkEP2Nku5Ar1gt90CUnFaXrgtjV2L4Xsv77OVT-2FLumxIk1CUw-2ByTB5s6-2BPQQ7IzTtw0UvAPcb6P1BMq-2F1ANilUVW7CxbT-2FUFScchuRHInocGun-2F7eUOHwFb6IO-2B0Q-3D-3D))
---
## 9. Is this a peak? The cycle debate

Chips are famously cyclical, booms followed by busts, so several podcasters asked whether we're near a top.

Cameron Dawson (on Danny Moses's show) made the most detailed cautious case. She noted how fast expectations have moved: *"You go back to the summer of 2025, analysts expected hyperscaler capex to be flat. Well, now... it's likely hyperscaler capex is going to grow between 90 and a hundred percent for this year,"* and next-year consensus is 30–40% growth, which she doubts has much upside. Her sharper point: *"We think 2Q was the peak earnings growth on a quarterly basis. We think 2026 is the peak earnings growth on an annual basis... you typically don't put a higher multiple on earnings that you know are peak."* She also flagged accounting quirks (lease reclassifications, extended payables, one-time gains) that flatter the headline: *"50% growth is dropped down to about 30% growth when you take those numbers out."* ([On The Tape with Danny Moses](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg1kXOhYs-2BeycCaiFiHJzLI6zJEBJ6iMIDcXWGSkqHolxH1ygZGTUn3cbL7xncreRCvc4kL2bLJ3ooFaDyib9vcADTIANe-2BdOxlIbn5kG8oMg-3D-3Dvbv6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnRJNIHUdgOn761z6rXwNiXh07MeLsDUe-2FrZ2GnHIqSKmDDFk9tNcM0OAFPdfiec5w5w3DJUrvF2HNyGZ4SVpZ9wyQDoczklWcUw9DoShE0qqd3FLuHcTWDXiHwwMDUVvqA-3D-3D))

Morningstar's Tom Lauricella added a concentration warning: *"semiconductors are about 16% of the U.S. stock market. And that's a very high number for such a volatile industry,"* and even emerging-market index funds are now ~22% concentrated in a handful of chip-related names. ([Investing Insights](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjxshDED3kNkyqvywUDyFJaOK0FqdOYZW2WRl5LxinZb09BBJi218DNyTNAeJskg0DYb-2B3mTcGe-2BzRI2oqCiX5fvCnaPEAogoQyriguCB-2Bylw-3D-3Dtpkp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdncD1floebWsii5qFY9i4kgxNaC2P3LnKEyBzoHO6L8WvNoOIAeRaxY82HeQYwfcH1M-2BpHhduJkKLWY1sffDkp8IvRabxsMUiygJFHPn4TdVbbMPdqVemzuEjF1I37hRaCg-3D-3D))

On the other side, Dan Niles argued we're not at a Cisco-2000 moment and that agentic AI's heavy token use means *"you've got a long way to go, at least another year."* ([Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjP3-2Fnla2l6YwORUFQBJ1s3zob1VPrmXu8tah2CBKA1DNR82j0w9ARKAfX7H-2B1-2B2tw9r-2FfuWXTNFZrOX4GyuyXPjXvZVFe-2BE-2B5od7zN-2Bz948Q-3D-3DpZT5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnRc-2FAcuEGXh1uZLmotFEQGWHPFhRmN3ATmb8MDZWZecfzaQFegZchjhNCV-2FsBe-2FwepBqNinNIeteAqdO-2BM8afOTWp9KmJ7LvMVUutDPzHDTOZRXJ3Nz2bFWWNYQMXBDPRg-3D-3D)) Micron's Jeremy Werner framed the shortage as a genuine demand surprise, not overbuilding: *"everyone was caught off guard by the pace of the demand growth."* ([Embedded Insiders](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjchbVcNES651mOseX-2BzzpeCkUSr78KTAhodHhw89lLxJKxESFzc-2BRakr-2FZzF4G99ObDWnRJVV5DVrhX5OOX-2FrC7Rt0NtnDK1Uhb27pXnCyUg-3D-3DAzyZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnaO-2Fga565p1V-2B4NuCZXDxZA97NSRmGfPwu5ha-2FXUbHB-2FY-2FtJRIyaDt0lzAb3Y73gCRE3GI46NhlNTgQQH9p7Gc9FFUYj6oH0yiH8iGmh-2BvjgWzbbJ7rWMuvleC3vGWff8Q-3D-3D)) And Zacks' Tracy Reinick noted the bears *"have been proven to be wrong the last couple of years."* ([Zacks Market Edge](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSQzkKsQQTJq0nPfjf6HCOTtisP4qJzc451pWaXEh6LayBpkSgo-2FM-2B8Bg2frnlRp7v3wriYMnyWqiahZ3IV6AYA3iutgIIPbE4aRJTRzPKMQ-3D-3DuZaD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnW5oB7ba7PbRu-2BJF6eu-2Bpfo2I40hdIheTrOZsEbUr0riIBwri2wDll1oYoN2ccIHzlw0ks9V4TdGv7qtf-2FoNmUBofz8B-2FdaNpfGVMbnqnSyaDmnpUN8-2BttXs9ZAPGZy9HA-3D-3D))
---
## 10. China's homegrown chips (SMIC, CXMT, YMTC, Huawei)

This may be the most important slow-burn story in semiconductors, and two experts dug in this week.

The clearest wake-up call came from Dan Niles: *"a lot of investors are vastly underestimating what China is doing... this is what people were thinking back in the 1980s when Japan entered the semiconductor industry."* His specifics on China's memory makers are striking. On CXMT (China's main DRAM maker): it *"plans on increasing their wafer starts from 300,000 to 500,000 by the end of next year,"* is currently *"about 8% of the global DRAM market... ramping incredibly fast,"* and has produced high-bandwidth memory *"yielding very, very well... maybe only... a generation behind."* On YMTC (NAND flash): it plans *"to be bigger than Samsung or Hynex in the NAND business by the end of next year."* ([Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjP3-2Fnla2l6YwORUFQBJ1s3zob1VPrmXu8tah2CBKA1DNR82j0w9ARKAfX7H-2B1-2B2tw9r-2FfuWXTNFZrOX4GyuyXPjXvZVFe-2BE-2B5od7zN-2Bz948Q-3D-3DgVSo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdnW0M9XlrdJbVcqr-2BPy53eq0SckMC-2BIo066MksNf9hG6WEt-2BOfJfXNczDOcN-2BKKwjZHX5FwPBlCJhF787roNWAxlzkIscQ2lWEds-2Bu8SQ-2BRJCndPxV01fkNnjQUM2DBkf-2Fg-3D-3D)) If accurate, that directly threatens the "durable scarcity" story propping up memory prices today.

Dan Kim added texture: in mainstream DRAM there are only *"3 companies left... Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron,"* plus the new Chinese entrants *"YMTC for NAND and CXMT for DRAM."* YMTC, he said, is *"either the second or third largest provider of NAND,"* while CXMT is *"more behind... but starting to introduce more and more of their DRAM devices into the market."* ([The Economics Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFCruAnTVYrZtiTkjuZP9LRr1JJo8GgUeBK-2FAFiW9KlZb1l-2FpqZNAX6i-2BvPrsyJw3M8IZ4oWWhRb1hZM1YCDiW0H1LYXBpFpKrnRCQKhrQxQ-3D-3DtRgB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2FdncccNyt7N7P50zLxPY1gfnjqNGi6nwfOT11CMU3-2FvZZXnyLfRLJ1FWTcC09I-2FDg9dOfas3VsSwtpnkAJn-2BpxCJ7JzUXbI7zvsB4lC9o6l9QNgXwBXe7qVYeOZ2q-2Fo0GAcw-3D-3D))

On the logic side, the Telecoms.com Podcast dissected Huawei's new Kirin 9050 Pro chip, built with a "logic folding" design to work around the lack of EUV machines, one panelist described it as moving from *"a sort of neighbourhood of single-storey homes"* to *"a cityscape of skyscrapers, where you're actually folding the components on top of each other."* Skeptics were unimpressed, calling it *"more like a packaging solution"* than a breakthrough, and estimated the real process node at *"seven [nanometer] at best"*, still years behind TSMC. Huawei nonetheless claims a path to *"1.4-nanometer equivalent"* by 2031. ([Telecoms.com Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjOC9NcD-2BGRQo-2Fc6m3W93oote0jI2JwFSAb7Omy-2B-2BS7ng5qK30QbWXBdjMU-2FD0M0dckC-2BrMG6AR3lm72FBl23IbhiUu2F2QfvQL-2ByOKL4bpbw-3D-3D0uIa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdnf5wMJRSmfQhe9Qo1dDe0hjB-2F6PtYv5K5swuXedj8raMw48vSbDliACdHEql08-2Bh7s08YjKlkANDamoauBJ1Y-2BySyStEzwecDMoJI7RtVszbOxuF9ysQcXbu61GPoPQcjg-3D-3D)) And per the This Week in Tech panel, Chinese AI models like DeepSeek and GLM increasingly *"run on Chinese chips... on Huawei chips"* rather than Nvidia's. ([This Week in Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjmlxFFwJBgMeSy-2BgjQOtHVTacFtPmrp3D1JTv1pmfiNJsueTElL6NXzxdoEfpJNSKDXm9cFQU6IeN6QLPGN2V8e4357iLvsem2-2BHQ-2FN6ZPXQ-3D-3DSesc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUrQSVKFWVEK0pIfhDfOep5QhKcz2haGUJ2bo1veH-2Fdndhi-2F8726YwqOp1Q4NCvoCnaTfFgSX0DTsVJ-2BYjmLvfBHeSczGOPzmD-2FR7U04t8smpt3rmB9-2FLumsWgxsEANqcYGg6N4-2FNXYeNaZu3ejtCxqUyNuoRAOnzssK1iv1geDOg-3D-3D))
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## What to Watch Next Week

* *Micron's next earnings* are the key upcoming data point for the memory story, watch whether management echoes the "sold out through 2027" narrative and quantifies HBM pricing and capacity.
* *U.S. semiconductor tariff decision:* the proposed tariffs extending to finished goods (servers, laptops) and the size of company-specific exemptions (e.g., TSMC's reported 30%) could reshape supply-chain economics. Watch for formal announcements.
* *China memory ramp:* any confirmation of CXMT's wafer-start expansion (300k → 500k) or YMTC's NAND market-share gains would be a direct challenge to the memory bull case, a data point that could move Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung.
* *Custom-chip partnerships:* follow-through on the Google–Marvell and Amazon–Qualcomm deals, and whether more hyperscalers adopt warrant-based supply structures.
* *Cycle signals:* watch commentary on whether Q2 2026 was indeed "peak earnings growth," and any early signs of order digestion beyond the AI names (especially in the quiet analog/auto/industrial segment).
* *Oracle backlog conversion:* given the concentration risk (OpenAI ~half of the $664B backlog), any news on customer diversification or contract cancellations.

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