# Reinsurers Push Back as the Softening Market May Be Overcorrecting - Insurance Pricing Turns - Week of September 20, 2026 > Insurance Pricing Turns for the week of September 14 to September 20, 2026. Monte Carlo interviews with reinsurance and broker bosses set up a two-sided debate: Ageas Re argues rate cuts have hit a floor set by 3.5% risk-free rates and IFRS 17, Gallagher Re and Guy Carpenter sell a record-capital buyer's market, and IGI's CEO explains why a $2.5–3bn Gulf war loss failed to lift political-violence rates. ## Insurance Pricing Turns ### Week of September 20, 2026: Reinsurers Push Back as the Softening Market May Be Overcorrecting --- The Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous interviews finally reached the podcast circuit this week, and a run of reinsurance and broker bosses sat down on the record. What they delivered is the first genuine two-sided argument in a month: the brokers are selling a record-capital buyer's market, and the reinsurers are pushing back that the price cuts have gone about as far as the math allows. The one word that kept coming up from the underwriting side wasn't "soft." It was "overcorrecting." ## TL;DR - **A reinsurer drew a line under the price cuts, with actual arithmetic.** Ageas Re's head of underwriting says brokers walked into Monte Carlo testing 20%, then 15%, then 10% rate reductions, and got pushback: reinsurers are already back to "2021 pricing levels" that only earn a 9–10% return on equity, except risk-free interest rates are now 350 basis points instead of zero. So the same price is no longer good enough, and a new accounting rule (IFRS 17) creates "a natural floor" for the January 1, 2027 renewal ([*The Reinsurance Podcast*, Sep 17](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgXCw3ms-2B1yBXwSCoJuz4fJT1fY1UQUdfu6tdQRDDh-2FPJ16Y6nFIr1uhFjR0Ypbnmp0fcfIFQKDmyzcV9UO0LCbI9Z9J9UEEyginplrryTRPw-3D-3DrFkd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zfGtgd5abWf9xLXoMbUe-2FtnnvHvZW4qcJyJpPX7UE56OLwE37fR-2FCD-2BmNbS6GuPObhDunmA-2BktyFiRVJAbwGZ9DBVjcoCN6yjMirwD7l5N1D4ni-2B11NG4Sxn0RShGzTF4HoHorC-2FwuyMdRNqY6S7ZL8-3D)). - **The brokers are framing it as a buyer's market with record capital, and telling clients not to just pocket the savings.** Gallagher Re's head of international called the market "in extremely fine condition" with committed capital "as high as it's ever been," and pressed clients to reinvest their price savings into better coverage rather than bank them: "It's not a game about price. It's a game about what is the optimal protection landscape" ([*The Reinsurance Podcast*, Sep 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhq2neq0QK-2BjaKAzLU2Kmac6-2FjjCvHsJkyuGYy-2FDxB6jnuuscITKIVimdW1zoVUoQR3T9otMhg2RcZbrJIoCH3hRRFQFTX6s-2BSIAXn1xFHPcQ-3D-3DX6SS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zY6In8v5Jvcjv82gwEjyX6cBjOYjw0invP5MdiMbus4sHeZxPf1FKtZ6vRPHCJ6AIjGJR6-2FhC5yyxeNYY-2FiVHtbRl6-2FH5kp-2BRcOaAbs5JElz3pBn3dYe-2FQDjOBVAVqFrcwkV4Kf8zaWvyRNXfyQERBo-3D)). - **A $2.5–3bn Gulf war loss, roughly a full year's premium for that line, still failed to lift rates.** IGI's CEO said that after the US–Iran truce, competitors "took their foot off the gas" on pushing prices and started competing again, so a genuinely devastating loss merely "bottomed out or flattened" the market instead of hardening it. His read: "definitely soft and getting softer" ([*The Voice of Insurance*, Sep 14](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgKe1Z5jnVm6kuEkdKK4YUrYGFu1W2k8JxPNl5KCaT2P8cElDPFXJxLqC56J87ftpAOsD91ayx7E7JaJO-2BmpfNJR8Ajjgl8TMQwWb-2FiWCtR-2Fw-3D-3D68pu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3ze6wfskywpo0dxFivmYxOUWdxc7e-2F4r3Q5hNEDGByox45uUgjG9oUyCPwIXU9kI3awU0RIn2QuMglB3gNVRM5Mott6HLH6U-2FmoEqJJbVhkjeRunOiCfGORnaJ1M3INDSw41XHN49MlWNSewrB7845Ls-3D)). ## What's New **A reinsurer makes the case that the cuts have overshot, and shows his working.** *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #54 – Joachim Racz: The Reinsurance Cycle Is Overcorrecting](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgXCw3ms-2B1yBXwSCoJuz4fJT1fY1UQUdfu6tdQRDDh-2FPJ16Y6nFIr1uhFjR0Ypbnmp0fcfIFQKDmyzcV9UO0LCbI9Z9J9UEEyginplrryTRPw-3D-3DkYPE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zYMLyU2bBOqEZ9yLkOpF0QoYvJpL-2FfGPJOdx7kb2bUSKispw02DXIs-2Bqwe-2FWLgY9YwPTxhaHxMbtzDpbqpXFC-2Bv8hFqPczfh7cOvdXo5zShHHcq3KL9PhnbydHrweIHsL5s3dCk2AjfBaCfG7MrzjR4-3D), Sep 17. Joachim Raczek, **Head of Underwriting at Ageas Re**, gave the sharpest floor argument of the week. First, the negotiation tell: *"brokers… first tested how we feel about 20% and they tested how we feel about 15%. Now the narrative is around 10% here. So that's already like in 10 days' time, 10% less reductions. And I think they got quite some pushback."* (A "rate reduction" here means how much cheaper reinsurance gets at renewal; brokers, who work for the buyers, want the number as big as possible.) Then the math behind the pushback. Reinsurers, he says, are already priced back to where they were before the market hardened: *"we are probably pricing at, I'd say, 2021 pricing levels… 2021 was pricing between nine and 10 return on equity."* But one thing has changed since then, namely the return you can earn just by parking money in safe bonds: *"if you price at 10, that's not enough because 2021 risk-free rates were just zero. Today they're 350 basis points… you need more than you needed in 2021 for shareholder remuneration."* In plain terms: charging a 2021 price in a world where cash safely yields 3.5% means shareholders are being short-changed, so there's little room to cut further. His second floor is an accounting one, and it's genuinely new for this cycle: *"2027 is the first soft market we go in with a large part of the capacity reporting under IFRS 17."* Under that rule, if you knowingly write business at a loss you must flag it as an "onerous contract" and book the loss on day one, in full view of auditors and shareholders. So, he argues, *"there's a kind of natural floor built in this year… there's not a lot of room for further reductions."* Raczek's frame for the whole cycle is *"I call it hazard-driven over-oscillation"*: prices spiked violently after 2022's losses (*"probably at 20 in '23… 18 in '24… 15 in '25, and probably somewhere around 10 to 12 right now"*) and are now snapping back just as violently in a year with almost no big catastrophes. His worry is the whiplash itself: *"it's hard to explain to a policyholder why this fire policy moves from 500 quid a year to 2,000 just to move back down to 500."* **The brokers' counter-pitch: record capital, and don't just bank the discount.** *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #57 – Dirk Spenner: Don't Waste a Soft Reinsurance Market](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhq2neq0QK-2BjaKAzLU2Kmac6-2FjjCvHsJkyuGYy-2FDxB6jnuuscITKIVimdW1zoVUoQR3T9otMhg2RcZbrJIoCH3hRRFQFTX6s-2BSIAXn1xFHPcQ-3D-3Dau-q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zcSqVzLq4p5PGfSOO7MNZ936IlTPHBUat2kWBVozbPfi85gii239ifNPWKN-2BCA6cf84vb6NI5JAKtYuRvVkKKCDA76JXCtuMH1FCAeInzdbaBSpcPFTPv4oW4aSbgmptYIo0UijrxRPFyCPsgKR4c4Y-3D), Sep 18. Dirk Spenner, **Head of International at Gallagher Re** (a reinsurance broker, an insider on the buyer's side), described a market "in extremely fine condition." The supply is real: *"the committed capital that sits on carrier balance sheets is as high as it's ever been. And there's a great deal of… other capital… also available."* His advice to clients is the tell that brokers think buyers hold the cards: stop haggling only on price and use the moment to buy better protection. *"It's not a game about price. It's a game about what is the optimal protection landscape that you're seeking"*, meaning closing the coverage gaps that opened up when the market hardened in 2023. He conceded most buyers have so far just taken the money and run: *"the majority of savings were probably… pocketing,"* but he expects more of it to be reinvested into sturdier structures this time. Next checkpoint on his calendar is Baden-Baden, the mid-October German reinsurance gathering, where *"big headline subjects turn into feasible reality."* **The strategist's frame: this is the 2023 hardening "unraveling," and soft markets breed dangerous confidence.** *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #53 – Laurent Rousseau: Soft Markets Create Dangerous Confidence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjdUoejxBldiyXCX3YtVgJa6PkyXusBfnCl5tT9YQW-2FDkLuWba1iBg6KqMD2zKg3IzaQ9iqO4E0evn2Lh-2F9rKsw1F8E059hrWUGav3EWhj17g-3D-3DyEZg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zbRYOABJVR3KeUju0uth5MMEMkQaoNEEkIVGt4BvszfCYrmJSqyxLW41YCjBLjbiBdwOI5oAIWNE89vLnioJ4GnHHnLCaqRdUD4gbed94N9T-2FWs8W8XQ8zhQi-2BBrziV88ydoiI-2BYsF9OB58GB8H41jk-3D), Sep 16. Laurent Rousseau, a senior reinsurance broker at **Marsh McLennan's Guy Carpenter** who presides over the Baden-Baden opening, zoomed out. January 2023 was *"a big reset, that proper rupture… proper hardening. And what's happening now is the swing the other way around. So it's called softening."* The consensus he heard: *"supply increase greater than demand increase. So price is coming off."* His warning is behavioural, since cheap markets make everyone feel like a genius: *"the blurring is a feature of softening markets where everybody's a bit emboldened by what they think is their own making… I can maybe extend my underwriting here. I can extend my distribution there. And that's all fine until the music stops… but it seems that music wants to play. The DJ is pretty active at the moment."* And where the next accident comes from won't be where anyone's looking: *"Is this going to be capital markets? Is it going to be those famous sidecars? Is it going to be the confusion between finance and insurance? I don't know."* His practical steer to buyers is to build in the discount gradually (*"start buying more proportional covers… more aggregate covers… retention points coming off… progressively and while the market is still very, very good"*), with a candid reminder that the relationship has limits: *"insurers are not here to fund reinsurers' combined ratios of 90%."* **"Stop calling this a soft market," because it isn't one thing.** *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #50 – Scott Egan: Stop Calling This a Soft Market](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjq-2BFvCsLxDV7gzM3xCe5W3j64npkRsdK45Cvm-2BVFFtb5BEqmNXKctU4EBfWTPDyNScjXQEe0ORGss0CDnLipA8t9cJe0XZljvkKE29wkVn2g-3D-3DBdk0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zcwsTyaXrJV8xSwKoELkVdnxcu8io1OE4co-2BoSPe1-2B3S6uwWztjcXSuCseRcJAEeq0MZCmAXof8aCx5J2WEfaDKaOLsCVkILfR0mHMeqTD2dDkux-2FwgtQL2Pm-2Fkl-2F4SONox6kplBFqeIdlDWhKxSkC4-3D), Sep 15. Scott Egan, **Chief Underwriting Officer at SiriusPoint**, pushed back on the whole framing. *"People are too quick to talk about… market softening. I think what we see is we see softening in some areas. We don't see it in all. The poster child is always property cat… There is much more to the insurance and reinsurance markets than property."* His firm reacts by constantly re-shuffling the mix: *"at any point in time, we are growing in some, shrinking in others… if you fall asleep, I promise you, you're going to get hurt."* Geopolitics is doing real work in specific lines rather than the headline rate: with the Russia–Ukraine war now *"five years"* old and the Strait of Hormuz in play, his credit and marine books behave nothing like property. He even bristled at the industry's shorthand: *"I hate the term casualty because it's made up of lots of different risks,"* singling out commercial auto as one he's happy to leave to others. And on the boom everyone wants exposure to, insuring the data-centre build-out, he flagged it looks a lot like the early days of cyber insurance: *"we can't run away from emerging risks, but we can't be reckless… it's the risk aggregation. That's the thing that's really important."* **A disciplined-softening reinsurer, watching wildfires move closer to home.** *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #56 – Laurent Montador: Calm Markets Can Be Dangerous](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj1frf98xyp-2BcCEAvf19-2BFv6Nixfr59LPxvz6ei5KaTnjdWbjmBLIT6HtNJJW9w6V9nDHDc0oENaE5mU1kRX2LI6FQWqHw4lZLeXs5qhjJqTg-3D-3Dcy5s_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zbp7ilpdhP-2FjFsOP8Jd6sHuJGeu1sWLkFSs1wWdn6AV-2FcbeuxIK2xp0YeMYXD7P-2FKKgTiydD6gEtmzBsULZCY5URLQ4yvbXD0q3bfgzNLp11TYlV09-2BJ3CBXr4PkC6XZ8LaJiybw3cvYsqHuLtJ3M4k-3D), Sep 18. Laurent Montador, a reinsurance executive at **CCR Re**, described *"a continuity in the softening of the market"* with supply and demand out of balance, but promised restraint: *"we'll have some room in terms of commission and prices, but not too far."* A concrete shift he's seeing: because the last few years pushed a lot of volatility back onto insurers' own books, buyers now want reinsurance to kick in sooner, with *"pressure for a lower attachment point and also a return to some aggregate covers"* (i.e. cover that responds to a run of smaller losses, not just one giant one). And the risk map is getting more personal: *"last year everybody was talking about wildfires in Los Angeles… this year it's wildfires in France and in Spain… not only for property risk, but also for motor liability."* His caution echoed the week's theme: a calm, cheaply-priced market is exactly where discipline slips, and the combination that could snap it back the other way is *"big losses… plus geopolitics crisis, plus potentially financial crisis."* **A devastating war loss that the market shrugged off.** *The Voice of Insurance*, [Ep316 Waleed Jabsheh, CEO IGI: Don't tie your hands](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgKe1Z5jnVm6kuEkdKK4YUrYGFu1W2k8JxPNl5KCaT2P8cElDPFXJxLqC56J87ftpAOsD91ayx7E7JaJO-2BmpfNJR8Ajjgl8TMQwWb-2FiWCtR-2Fw-3D-3D3x5t_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zfDo4Mpwx9j-2FeOWZdVazHCYFzbyEKTM0egnIbbtGt4yF7SFttsLGT70sttjqHSwNTLQvbhUZAB1wlm-2FrcseDBNeTd8VLmp7cZQQAa1LYc-2FQ1EuTrBGHyrUjzCCwkUXHNrjSyeRqqvWaDRTh2g3Y8AKU-3D), Sep 14. Waleed Jabsheh, **CEO of International General Insurance (IGI)**, gave the bluntest read on how weak pricing discipline has become. He characterised the overall market as *"definitely soft and getting softer and softer,"* and warned the pace of decline *"is too quick and inevitably will come back and be painful for a lot of players."* His case study is political violence insurance (cover against war, riots and terrorism). The Gulf conflict earlier this year produced *"about a $2.5 to $3 billion loss… which is devastating for the market"*, by his estimate roughly *"a year's premium"* for the whole line. In a functioning market, a loss that size lifts prices. Instead: *"after the MOU was signed between the U.S. and Iran… some people took their foot off the gas in terms of pushing the higher rates and started competing a bit more… all it's done is really much bottomed out or flattened the rating environment internationally."* His instruction to his own underwriters at Monte Carlo was simply defensive: *"protect what you have built."* In a companion appearance on [*The Reinsurance Podcast*, Sep 16](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjqtyTVk7vzqauGKJ-2Bn4zfnt-2Fr8-2Fw3sBJ36jUyaOytjou48uauBIloKTeWnGr1NSomcJU57vRpd0L35bEr1BENK3BKyVv8GwQ7sGG8wHO626w-3D-3D8tyw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zZ27-2F1npYwaby-2B1i8VAITOEPmwO4y9uzqSTGLfdWYLBlALa4bQbtVZsIDpOgpyHkeWqidTPebRDJy-2FZ0mRHTG4cJnCYsxLCShUkFndR5l-2FOJTQjujFI4ZO3Th1qrDdzvgNvFrcb018YaDlR5Z5DI-2B4E-3D), he named what he thinks eventually turns the cycle, and it's claims, not commentary: *"ultimately what drives our market is losses… in an environment where there's benign loss activity, the hunger is only going to grow. The capacity is going to get more aggressive and competitive. And dare I say naive… It's when the losses come back… and there's blood on the streets… then the approach changes."* ## The Debate For the first time in weeks, both sides can be steel-manned from operators' own mouths. **The bear case, that prices keep falling, was voiced, and it's credible.** The brokers (Spenner at Gallagher Re, Rousseau at Guy Carpenter) describe record capital chasing roughly flat demand, which by the iron logic of supply and demand means further price cuts. Rousseau's consensus read (*"supply increase greater than demand increase, so price is coming off"*) is the base case, and Jabsheh's political-violence example is the proof of how weak discipline has become: even a year's-worth-of-premium loss couldn't hold the line. **The bull case, that there's a floor here, was also voiced, and unusually well.** Raczek's argument is the one to sit with: with risk-free rates at 3.5% and IFRS 17 forcing loss-making contracts onto the P&L on day one, cutting much below today's ~10% ROE pricing means either accepting sub-cost-of-capital returns or booking an embarrassing loss up front, neither of which boards will wave through. Montador and Egan add the texture that "the market" isn't one number: softening is concentrated in big-ticket property catastrophe, while casualty, credit, marine and specialty lines are each moving on their own clock, and several are still adequately priced. Egan's "stop calling this a soft market" is a direct rebuttal to the tidy bear narrative. Where they agree is the uncomfortable part: everyone, bull and bear, said the same thing about *why* the market is soft (a stretch of unusually benign catastrophe losses and a pile of capital), and everyone said the same thing about what ends it: losses. As Jabsheh put it, the hunger grows until "blood on the streets" changes the approach. So the honest read is that the floor arguments are real and well-argued, but they are arguments about how *slowly* prices fall, not whether. The one thing that would settle it, a big catastrophe, is precisely the thing nobody wants to be the test of. ## The Names in Play **Discussed on the podcasts this week, by operators:** Ageas Re (Joachim Raczek), IGI (Waleed Jabsheh), SiriusPoint (Scott Egan), CCR Re (Laurent Montador), plus the two big reinsurance brokers, Guy Carpenter/**Marsh McLennan (MMC)** via Laurent Rousseau and Gallagher Re/**Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)** via Dirk Spenner. On the US-listed side, **Chubb (CB)** and **Travelers (TRV)** came up second-hand, in a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst's read (see Read-throughs below), not from the companies themselves. The Monte Carlo commentary reached the circuit through smaller and specialty reinsurers, a mutual, and the brokers rather than the household-name balance sheets. ## Read-Throughs - **Pure reinsurers (RNR, EG, ACGL):** The January 1, 2027 renewal just got its clearest preview of the year, and it cuts against the simple "rates keep falling hard" story. If Raczek's floor logic holds (3.5% risk-free rates plus IFRS 17 making cheap business visibly loss-making), then the down-cycle should be shallower and more orderly than the bears fear, which is good for 2027 underwriting margins at the disciplined names. The risk is behavioural, and every operator named it: benign losses breed overconfidence, and someone eventually breaks ranks to chase volume. Watch Baden-Baden in mid-October for whether the floor talk survives contact with actual quotes. - **ILS / cat-bond / alternative capital:** The theme showed up sideways this week, and not reassuringly. The "record capital" the brokers keep citing includes third-party money, and both Rousseau (the next accident coming through "capital markets… those famous sidecars… the confusion between finance and insurance") and Egan (data-centre risk aggregation) flagged that the danger in a flush market hides in the plumbing. Read that as: alternative capital isn't stressed, it's abundant, which is precisely what's pressing prices down and what the disciplined reinsurers are warning about. - **Primary specialty / E&S (KNSL, WRB, MKL, HG, SKWD):** The relevant read comes from the reinsurance side: cedents (the insurers who buy reinsurance) are being pushed to hold more risk on their own books, and are now demanding lower attachment points and aggregate covers back (Montador). That's the mirror image of last week's warning that E&S business migrates back to standard carriers as the market softens: the whole chain is loosening terms at once. Whether specialty casualty reserves are keeping pace remains the open question. - **Brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, WTW, BRO):** The US-listed read this week came from a Bloomberg Intelligence insurance analyst (a commentator, not an operator) on [*Bloomberg Intelligence*, Sep 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVPlfweLA4U7OCmeph9iNUBU9wvMGBaT-2FTAMLTsQKJHgljNYbu6oDIt5oUfWSj2L-2BbY7ME6RqjS8iqtBo-2Bem8Tc-2BLcIvy2omNAHUXpREeY6w-3D-3D3hoF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zThGF927a8A1EuTDjTEpjmKBgbm8QSO4nuvn2ymbTprpnfAWlWV-2Byu6d3HN9gCvmGC20m9P-2FC1W4jAE-2F5EnE7UEcQHgb3NCx02aETGNx26TaJSR8-2FBe5vJ2kp3xqAlcuc-2BVHj6-2Fwe4OXYx6K-2Fk-2FKITU-3D), and it was constructive on the carriers rather than the brokers: he's turned *"moderately more positive on the group"* because underwriting results beat expectations, higher-for-longer interest rates lift investment income, and it's been *"a very mild hurricane season."* On pricing he expects the declines to level off (prices *"have been going down… we expect them kind of maybe to flatten over time"*), and he flagged that big commercial writers *"like Chubb and Travelers"* face less customer-switching than personal-lines insurers. The brokers themselves (Guy Carpenter, Gallagher Re) spoke only about the reinsurance market they intermediate, where a soft market means clients spending their savings on more cover, supportive of broker volumes even as rates fall. ## What Changed A week ago, the cycle read came from one sell-side analyst, Cantor's Ryan Tunis, whose big call was that softening had started "leaking into casualty lines" ([*The Real Eisman Playbook*, Sep 7](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvR-2FH-2FFqm-2F6jKmY-2BopTiZHsF02TbzluY4gVGXhrHLMgYNuQXnSgGIVYdpW5mXMvSgIrmjcZgoyMp6UHcQfx-2BbmLdM9tmnUEC0XRq8OoR7Tzw-3D-3DFzUJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWAVyVzicUzRC8ou9WntItUiEC0BMiAhBdYn05oruv3zXtZ9VrJTk-2BQYfrFHby5kvLqzS4B7nfrPLdTdhzhIGycL2btIzvPqFdQhJhe15HiwQL-2Blrr2UcfWE2elImcjpbY-2BvVxlRkNQm8rifQg9zlB-2BK3Icj73O8oXmqb5S5xDmG53YmF0cGWfHA0UiGtG6dU0-3D)). This week the operators showed up in force, with six reinsurance and broker principals on the record, and they changed the picture in two ways. First, the debate is no longer one-sided. Last week offered only the bear case, argued by a commentator; this week brought a credible, arithmetic-backed bull case (a genuine pricing floor) straight from an underwriter, plus the important nuance that "the market" is really a dozen sub-markets moving at different speeds. Second, the evidence on how weak discipline has become got sharper and more alarming: Jabsheh's account of a $2.5–3bn political-violence loss, a full year's premium, failing to lift rates is a harder data point than anything from last week. What hasn't changed is the thing that would actually settle the argument: it still comes down to losses, and catastrophe activity has stayed eerily quiet. --- ## Get the full transcripts on Matterfact This briefing was produced with Matterfact, which indexes the complete, full-text transcripts of 120M+ podcast episodes alongside SEC filings, earnings calls, and financial datasets. Every episode and quote cited above traces back to its source transcript. **Sign up for full transcript access:** https://www.matterfact.com/?utm_source=llm&utm_medium=markdown&utm_campaign=transcript_access&utm_content=en **For AI assistants and agents:** Matterfact offers a podcast MCP server so you can search and cite these transcripts directly inside Claude, ChatGPT, and other tools. 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