Newsletter · · Ashutosh Agarwal

GLP-1 Drugs Now Look Like a Threat to Every Vice Not Just Alcohol - Beverage Alcohol & Nicotine - Week of September 23, 2026

Beverage Alcohol & Nicotine for the week of September 23, 2026. Podcast synthesis on a psychiatry show reframing GLP-1 drugs as a threat to every vice at once (a 600,000-person VA study tied them to lower alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid use disorders plus a 50% drop in substance-use-disorder deaths), 48% of Americans trying to drink less and a 2.9% beer outrunning top non-alcoholic brands, hemp-THC drinks winning mainstream awards and courting retirees ahead of a December regulatory cliff, and a sixth straight week of nicotine silence.

Beverage Alcohol & Nicotine

Week of September 23, 2026: GLP-1 Drugs Now Look Like a Threat to Every Vice Not Just Alcohol

For a year the weight-loss-drug story in this letter has been about alcohol: does Ozempic quietly kill the urge to drink? This week a psychiatry podcast widened the lens, and the answer got bigger and more uncomfortable for anyone selling a vice. The same drugs that dent drinking appear to dent nicotine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioids too; one 600,000-person study tied them to a 50% drop in deaths from substance-use disorders. Meanwhile the moderation trend kept showing up in the checkout data: nearly half of Americans say they're trying to drink less, a sub-3% beer is turning as fast as the top non-alcoholic brands, and hemp-THC drinks are winning mainstream beverage awards and being marketed to retirees as an alcohol swap. On nicotine's own thesis (Zyn, IQOS, pouch volumes), silence again. A sixth straight week without a single operator or analyst voice.

TL;DR

  • The GLP-1 story stopped being just an alcohol story. A psychiatrist walked through two large studies: a 200,000-person Swedish study found 36% fewer alcohol-related hospitalizations for people on semaglutide (the drug in Ozempic and Wegovy), and a 600,000-person VA study tied these drugs to lower rates of alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid use disorders, plus a 50% drop in substance-use-disorder deaths. Same molecule, every vice at once. The catch: these are observational studies that can't yet prove cause.
  • Moderation now has a shopper-count behind it, and a business model on top. Nearly half of Americans (48%) say they're trying to drink less, according to a figure cited on Beernet Radio, and a sub-3% "mid-strength" beer called Dad Strength is turning through Whole Foods "as fast as" the top non-alcoholic brands, with half of grocery buyers being women. People aren't quitting the aisle; they're buying weaker cans.
  • Hemp-THC drinks are going mainstream and up-market, and up in age. A board member of the fast-growing hemp beverage Pharos described winning "best new beverage" at a mainstream wine-and-spirits competition and marketing 10mg THC cans to the 55-and-older crowd in retirement communities as a no-hangover swap for wine, while warning of a regulatory "buzzsaw" at the end of December.

What's New

The weight-loss drugs now look like a threat to every vice in this letter, not just alcohol. The most important podcast of the week wasn't a beverage show at all. On PsychRounds: The Psychiatry Podcast, "GLP-1 Agonists (Ozempic, Wegovy) in Psychiatry" (Sept 16, 2026), the host laid out why these drugs might curb bad habits at all: they slow how fast your stomach empties (so you feel full sooner), and, more intriguingly, the receptors they act on sit inside the brain's reward wiring, "suggesting that they may also reduce the reinforcing effects of alcohol as well as other substances." Then came the evidence, and it's broader than anything this letter has cited before.

Two studies stand out. A Swedish study of 200,000 people found semaglutide was associated with a 36% reduction in alcohol-use-disorder-related hospitalizations, an effect the host said "compared pretty favorably with the currently FDA-approved medications for alcohol use," namely naltrexone, acamprosate, and disulfiram. In plain terms: a diabetes-and-weight drug may be doing the job of the dedicated anti-drinking medicines, as a side effect. The second is the one that should make every vice investor sit up. In a Veterans Affairs study of 600,000 people, GLP-1s were tied to lower rates of alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid use disorders versus a comparison diabetes drug, with a 50% reduction in substance-use-disorder-related deaths and a 39% reduction in drug overdoses.

Why it matters: this is the first time the podcasts have framed the GLP-1 effect as hitting nicotine alongside alcohol. A newsletter that covers both halves of the vice trade has to notice when a single, fast-spreading drug appears to lean on both at once. The honest caveat, which the host repeated: these are observational studies: they show strong links but "can't really establish causality," and the only randomized trial he cited (a 2025 study in JAMA) had just 48 people. So this is a powerful signal, not proof. But it's a signal that keeps getting louder, and it now points at the tobacco aisle too.

"GLP-1 receptors are expressed within several components of the brain's reward circuitry, suggesting that they may also reduce the reinforcing effects of alcohol as well as other substances." PsychRounds host, on the mechanism behind the vice-dampening effect

"48% of Americans are trying to drink less," and someone built a beer brand on the exact number. On Beernet Radio, "Ep. 350: Craig Carey, Ryan Kutscher, and Josh Fruchtman of Dad Strength" (Sept 20, 2026), the founders of Dad Strength (a sub-3.5% ABV "mid-strength" beer) cited a fresh figure: "48% of Americans are trying to drink less." Their whole pitch is what to hand that person instead of quitting. The beer is 2.9% alcohol, what co-founder Craig Carey called "that Goldilocks zone of catch a buzz, never catch a hangover," sold on "better-for-you sessionability," meaning the "alcohol tax isn't as high and the calorie tax isn't as high."

The traction numbers are the tell. In Whole Foods, co-founder Ryan Kutscher said, "we're turning as fast as some brands that people would be pretty surprised to hear. Some of the top non-alcoholic brands, we're turning as fast." And crucially, this isn't a niche men's product: roughly 50% of grocery buyers are women, often buying "for my husband" or "for me." The founders see the same "moderation lifestyle" spreading beyond beer to low-ABV wine and spirits-based ready-to-drink cans; one described watering down wine with Pellegrino at his local winery to "extend the occasion." The behavioral shift they keep describing is the whole bull case for moderation in one line: for younger drinkers, the default flipped from "we're drinking, what else are we doing?" to "we're going for a run, are we also going to be drinking?" This is the demand-side texture behind the category data: the weak-beer shelf is a real, growing business, not a novelty, though, tellingly, Dad Strength is still a startup out raising $3 million, so the money here is mostly private for now.

Hemp-THC drinks are winning mainstream awards and courting retirees as an alcohol replacement. On The Dime, "Europe Is Not a Rescue Plan ft. Jamie Pearson" (Sept 16, 2026), a cannabis-business show, Jamie Pearson, a longtime beverage operator (formerly of Bang Energy) who sits on the board of the hemp drink Pharos, described a category maturing fast. Pharos, she said, is "a just rocket ship of a hemp beverage," and it's winning where it counts: "best new beverage at the Wine Wholesaler and Spirits of America," not a hemp-specific award, a mainstream one. The product is a 10mg THC can (5mg per serving, two servings), made with organic fruit oil, that she personally drinks instead of wine or beer because "the next morning there's no alcohol hangover."

The surprising part is the target customer: 55 and older. Pharos is running a "Be Wise, Be Well" campaign inside retirement communities like The Villages, teaching older shoppers both to try the drink and to call their representatives to protect access, because, as Pearson put it, a regulatory "hemp buzzsaw" is "coming at the end of... December." Her framing of the competitive backdrop is the line to keep for the read-through: "big alcohol and big tobacco are in and they're hedging." The incumbents aren't ignoring THC drinks; they're quietly buying optionality on them. And the consumer behavior echoes what this letter has tracked all year: party guests bringing THC cans instead of a bottle: "My favorite thing is to bring those to parties now."

Non-alcoholic beer is becoming a blank canvas: protein here, THC there. On Express Checkout, "Have we reached peak function?" (Sept 17, 2026), a consumer-products show, the hosts flagged two launches that show where the alcohol-free can is heading. Optimum Nutrition ("the world's number one sports nutrition brand," owned by Glanbia) launched Champion Sips, a limited-edition non-alcoholic beer with 10 grams of protein. And a brand called Herb Light launched a non-alcoholic beer with 1mg of THC and CBD. The hosts' read: once the alcohol comes out, the can becomes "a vessel" ("what else can I put in it?"), and the answers are protein and THC. They were skeptical it all sticks ("function washing," they called some of it), but the direction of travel is clear: the fastest innovation in beer right now is happening in the zero-alcohol lane, and it's pulling in wellness and cannabis money, not lager money. (One tangent worth a footnote for the CPG-watchers: they noted P&G paid $3.8 billion for the supplement brand Thorne, a reminder of how much capital is chasing the "wellness" half of "vice wellness.")

The Debate

The core question this letter keeps asking: is the drinking decline a permanent generational shift, or a cyclical dip that's overstated and offset by premiumization? This was a thematic week, so it leaned bullish on the "structural" side. Here's the honest version of both.

Bull (the decline is structural, and now it's chemical too). The strongest new evidence isn't about drinking habits; it's about biology. If GLP-1 drugs genuinely dampen the brain's reward response to alcohol and nicotine and cannabis, and if roughly a tenth of the population is now on them (with Medicare coverage widening the base further, more on that below), then a slice of vice demand is being quietly switched off at the source, in a way that doesn't reverse when the economy improves. Layer on the behavioral data (48% of Americans trying to drink less, a sub-3% beer outrunning top NA brands, THC drinks winning mainstream awards and converting 55-year-olds) and the picture is of demand structurally leaking out of traditional alcohol toward weaker, wellness-flavored, and cannabis alternatives.

Bear (the money is moving, not vanishing). The counter didn't get its own marquee episode this week, but it's woven through the same evidence, and it's the more important half for a stock-picker. Every bullish data point above is also proof the dollar is still being spent, just on a different can. The moderating drinker isn't leaving the category; she's buying a 2.9% beer (and Dad Strength sells half its grocery volume to women who love the idea, not people who quit). The retiree isn't going dry; he's buying a 10mg THC drink that wins spirits awards. And the GLP-1 evidence, for all its weight, is still observational; the host was explicit that causality isn't proven and the one randomized trial had 48 people. It's entirely possible the effect is real but smaller than the scary headline number once you strip out the fact that people who choose these drugs are already trying to get healthier.

The synthesis, unchanged but reinforced: both sides agree the behavior is changing structurally toward fewer, more deliberate, more health-conscious drinking occasions. They disagree only on whether that shrinks the market or reshuffles it. For a book, that still argues against a blunt "alcohol is dying" or "this is cyclical" bet, and in favor of owning the formats the money is moving toward: low/no-ABV, functional, premium, and the regulated-or-banned THC-drinks wildcard.

On nicotine, there was again no debate to have, because there was no voice to steel-man. For the sixth straight week, not one operator or analyst discussed Philip Morris, Altria, or BAT, pouch volumes, heated tobacco, or the smoke-free profit mix on the podcasts. The one nicotine-relevant data point this week came, oddly, from the psychiatry show: the GLP-1 finding that these drugs may also curb nicotine use disorder. That's a bearish read-through for cigarette and pouch demand, delivered by a doctor, with no tobacco executive anywhere near a microphone to answer it.

Read-Throughs

GLP-1 spillover to the whole vice complex, including nicotine. This is the week's most important cross-read. The reduced-risk nicotine thesis (Zyn, on!, Velo pouches) rests on smokers switching rather than quitting. A drug that appears to lower nicotine use disorder outright (the way the VA study suggests) is a quiet threat to that switching pool, not just to combustible cigarettes. It's early and unproven, but for anyone long Philip Morris (PM), Altria (MO), or BAT (BTI) on a durable-nicotine-demand thesis, GLP-1 is now a variable to watch on both the alcohol and the tobacco side of the ledger.

Restaurants and on-premise: the alcohol pullback shows up at the table, but it's moderation, not abstinence. On A Deeper Dive, "How GLP-1 drugs are, and aren't, affecting restaurants" (Sept 16, 2026), a restaurant-industry analyst confirmed the pattern from the demand side: GLP-1 users report ordering fewer appetizers and less alcohol, yet, because they skew higher-income, they say they're actually eating out more often, not less. The behavior is "moderation versus just taking it all away in one fell swoop." Two facts sharpen the read-through: there are now more Americans on GLP-1s than there are vegetarians (roughly 10-12% of the population), and Medicare's new $50 coverage is bringing older, previously priced-out users into the pool, with predictable spikes each "diet season" in January and again heading into summer. For on-premise alcohol volumes, that's a slow, widening drag, softest on the appetizer-and-cocktail add-on, which is exactly the high-margin part.

Non-alcoholic and functional drinks: the innovation lane, and where the capital is. The clearest structural read of the week. The fastest product experimentation in beer is now happening in the zero-alcohol can: protein beer from the world's biggest sports-nutrition brand, THC-and-CBD beer from challengers, and a sub-3% "mid-strength" beer turning as fast as the leading NA labels. For the big brewers (Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) with its NA portfolio, Heineken with 0.0, Diageo (DEO) with Guinness 0.0, Molson Coors (TAP), and Boston Beer (SAM)) the message is that "no and low" is no longer a defensive checkbox; it's where the growth, the women shoppers, and the venture money are pooling.

Cannabis / THC drinks: still the highest-beta read, still on a regulatory clock. The demand signal keeps strengthening (mainstream beverage awards, 55+ conversion, incumbents "hedging"), but the risk remains entirely regulatory and dated: Pearson's "buzzsaw... at the end of December." A workable framework is a tailwind for hemp-drink makers, including public names like Tilray (TLRY) that have pushed into THC beverages; a hard cap or ban is a reprieve for beer and spirits. Nothing to add to the specific bill mechanics this week beyond the reminder that the deadline is live.

Where young-adult "vice money" is going instead: gambling. A small but telling aside from Planet Money, "How investing is getting riskier (Two Indicators)" (Sept 16, 2026): survey data showing more than half of Gen Z have diverted investing dollars to sports betting, with about a quarter viewing it as a high-risk investment. The context here is the brokerage account, not the bar, but it's another data point in the larger story of where young-adult disposable income and dopamine-seeking are flowing now that a night out is less automatic. Attention and wallet share are being contested by phones, not just by weaker beer.

Nicotine ingredient suppliers, pouch capacity, PMTA, illicit disposables: nothing to report. No podcast touched nicotine supply constraints, FDA approvals, illicit-disposable enforcement, or cigarette pricing this week. The silence is the story.

What Changed

  • The GLP-1 evidence widened from alcohol to all vices, with bigger numbers. Last week the case was built on a 600,000-person VA study showing 18% lower odds of alcohol-use disorder. This week a psychiatrist added a new 200,000-person Swedish study (36% fewer alcohol-related hospitalizations) and reframed the VA data around multiple substances at once (alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, cocaine, opioids), plus a 50% drop in substance-use-disorder deaths. The thesis went from "Ozempic dents drinking" to "Ozempic dents the whole vice complex."
  • Nicotine got pulled into the GLP-1 story for the first time. In prior weeks the weight-loss-drug angle was purely an alcohol read. This week it explicitly touched nicotine demand, a new (if unproven) headwind for the reduced-risk names that the tobacco majors, silent again, weren't there to rebut.
  • Moderation picked up a hard participation number. The move to weaker drinks has been described in category-share terms before; this week it came with a consumer-count: 48% of Americans trying to drink less, cited alongside a real brand turning as fast as the top NA labels.
  • Nicotine went dark for a sixth straight week. Over a month now with no majors, no challengers, and no pouch or heated-tobacco commentary of any kind. Worth flagging the persistence of the silence: the reduced-risk thesis isn't being contradicted on the podcasts, it's simply not being told.