# Gold Dips as Yields Hit 22-Year Highs - Gold & the Debasement Trade - Week of September 24, 2026

> Gold & the Debasement Trade for the week ending Thursday, September 24, 2026. Podcast synthesis on gold dipping as Treasury yields hit 22-year highs, why the operators are buying the miners' 13-year breakout, a rare detailed look at platinum-group metals, and the debasement bulls against the dollar-strength skeptics.

## Gold & the Debasement Trade

### Week of September 24, 2026: Gold Dips as Yields Hit 22-Year Highs

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*Weekly notes from the podcasts, week ending Thursday, September 24, 2026.*

Last week the Federal Reserve did something it hadn't done in three years: it raised interest rates. The bet, from almost everyone, was that a rate hike would knock gold down hard. This week we got the sequel, and it wasn't the one the textbooks predicted.

The bond market kept falling apart. Yields (the interest the government has to pay to borrow) marched to levels not seen in two decades. A five-year Treasury note auctioned at **5.03%**, the highest in about twenty years; the 30-year bond hit **5.41%**, a 22-year high; the 10-year touched **5.12%**, a 19-year high, per Peter Schiff on his September 24 podcast, [The Peter Schiff Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgYkfotZNE5kRR2ynjLUSy91Ca4amGx04T-2FZYLFDus2ujXztVihnA93ncLkDCqFoT1s3ZV73TOOckpxYNqc-2BzXE-2BrnmQX9kKBS17dCKAHFXzw-3D-3DjuZ-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcouvPCauuHhc-2BkVnpsgGnPnwkeDp-2B9DpAtXnQd7bXz0XEfYxA-2FnU2G74hFDR6816C1rb-2BMly-2FG-2Fo817GIIAr8huSdvDh-2B7ZjFm2qqzYlL7RisOiSU3ExuUysLi-2FVpYjwRHQ-3D-3D). Normally, higher yields are gold's enemy: gold pays no interest, so when bonds pay more, gold is supposed to suffer.

Instead, gold just… dipped. Using end-of-week fund prices for the hard numbers: the big gold ETF (GLD) fell **1.67%** on the week, silver (SLV) **-2.29%**, platinum (PPLT) **-1.00%** and palladium (PALL) **-1.03%**. Long-term Treasuries (TLT) dropped **2.89%** as yields rose, and the dollar (UUP) firmed **1.09%**. The miners took the biggest hit, as they usually do when metal slips: the senior gold miners (GDX) fell **3.72%**, junior miners (GDXJ) **3.07%**, and silver miners (SIL) **4.26%**. That's the "leverage in reverse" that makes mining shares move roughly one-and-a-half to two times the metal. On the podcasts, hosts quoted spot gold sliding through the $4,200–$4,500 range across the week; silver hovered in the $60s.

So the week's real debate isn't "how far did gold fall." It's this: **does a rate-hiking Fed finally break the gold trade, or is the bond-market meltdown itself the reason to own gold?** The people who dig rocks out of the ground and manage real money lined up on one side; several of the loudest macro commentators pushed back from the other.

As always, a note on who's talking. **Operators and insiders** (mine financiers, fund managers, people with skin in the game) get separated below from the **pundits**, the commentators and strategists offering opinions. Both are worth hearing; they are not the same thing.

## Part 1: The one thing everyone agrees on, nominal rates aren't the story, real rates are

The single most repeated idea this week was a correction to the old rule of thumb. Yes, gold competes with the interest you can earn elsewhere, but what matters is the **real** interest rate: the yield *after* subtracting inflation. If inflation is running hotter than the yield, then holding cash or bonds quietly loses you purchasing power, and gold looks better by comparison.

A resource investor on [Company Interviews](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhKZu5KNIY4QCSlmpfoqBOaM9Vz-2FfdSwnacO8fhuZrdQyMGf716hsg4yn0D-2FiUdTwPQ5-2BXQIfpOOZUVFWelwMiwpKoVDxliDNENO0AGUd-2BQrw-3D-3DrC45_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcohZXOe-2FUSwMWylNACZ6lapY95ZZb9iYv-2BWsrjo3ZnBJa8Jz68-2BdntAPs2dL5Km6IEg7H-2B64Pir8KVPAMV9WvzFq0DtagX0cKgYb-2BWYFag48Hj1uo7pj4EW-2Bb8LRaq8cWsQ-3D-3D) (Sept 22) put it plainly: the correlation "has been with real rates, not with nominal rates," and if you believe inflation is higher than the reported yields, then "we are almost always in a negative real-rate environment," which is why gold is worth more over time. A single 25-basis-point hike, in his words, "doesn't alter the long-term trajectory for anything," at most a "temporary dislocation."

Axel Merk, who runs about $2.8 billion in precious-metals strategies, made the same point with a specific number on [Thoughtful Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgDteohdk3OJxjkORD00pQ22NI2y3v1Nb5Go3tFfDczVWp09g5am8YBhYwTcJAYror47tfAgT9jdeUf2YJxgNMMJSvT-2BcG-2FnLy-2BQ90WQCdP7g-3D-3DNJla_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcomK0hlJDJ5ihs2ZX9GzlvDnX89TRPpObno6aNhpR4RTUG-2FCqv4TiVllbQ9OZFOYWilKeptHyq5IUWNGChvxgOtB-2F1oXgD8-2BkJJ4TiXHsba0U-2FMRByAe0sASIpb1ieMYihA-3D-3D) (Sept 17). He noted the real 10-year yield sitting at **2.69%** ("that's huge," historically high), and yet gold was holding $4,200–$4,300, which he called "very impressive in that environment." His read: real yields that high are likely to fall from here, which would be a tailwind. Merk bought physical gold back in 2004 and still owns it; his case for holding it is the long-run fiscal mess (no reform of Social Security or other entitlements, heavy defense spending), not any single Fed meeting.

## Part 2: The operators, buying the dip and pointing at a chart that just broke out

### Rick Rule: study the 1970s, and know your three lines of defense

Veteran mining financier Rick Rule gave the week's best history lesson on [The Competent Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhMmJ5qGu2kr3eE9AI-2F4dSiuDzg86o2gMEMZfb46Z6vBa9fnFInvnJ1U9eFN4GgUb0l7sRTiNiqOGFdUBjCy5MqQcwaQX1wLe9iwhzAjaoP7A-3D-3Dk9NO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcovdwtSzJmFxj-2B-2Fl9j2X-2Fd5YzrQw9rtT4gvdonIQM8rPX5avZXjRR-2BQ07W1pFeRNo1dTxd4BsGhZchR-2BPHXvrU10ADhLSZt3oOBcF0iynArEgUmjgr625F5218OJlM2p-2B1g-3D-3D) (Sept 17). In the 1970s, he noted, the U.S. dollar lost **75% of its purchasing power** (a basket of goods that cost $1,000 in 1970 cost $4,000 by 1980). Gold rose 25-fold; the main gold-stock index of the day (the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index) rose 45-fold, meaning the best gold *stocks* roughly doubled the move in the metal.

Rule's framework for savers: your **first line of defense is gold bullion** (a savings asset); your **second is the highest-quality gold stocks**, "the Franco-Nevadas, the Wheaton Precious, the Agnico Eagles," where you get leverage to the gold price without operational risk; your **third** is speculative gold stocks, which can outperform but only "in the hands of a good practitioner" willing to do the work and stomach 15–20% weekly swings.

And on this week's stronger dollar and higher rates? Rule welcomes it. A higher U.S. yield pulls money into the dollar, which makes dollar-priced things like gold temporarily cheaper. "I love that," he said, "an asset class that I don't like to own a lot more of stays cheaper for a lot longer." He also hammered a supply point that applies well beyond gold: decades of underinvestment mean commodities will eventually be "rationed by price." His example: the Resolution copper deposit in Arizona, one of America's best, has been stuck in permitting for **28 years**.

### Michael Oliver: the miners just cleared a 13-year ceiling

The most striking technical argument came from Michael Oliver on [WTFinance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiAUNGpnwwYTEV5AD8JcrbX93DVXda-2BSOXpm1t-2FOen6AbUoHcsBzUGdhfBFyjpM3ug20l1irHoOU3EFB6xw4Qwx-2FxbE65gDCzh28zYU0mR9XA-3D-3DoxrT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcoigeSbHnVpV0ox4S5X-2FU1PwEIL5GGwRQdl69eb1Xq-2BKsubqFnCQAp5rn0PA79tV9yeBOyAs5hgOX9Ihj1bPpKpPfdD3CPZZ8BHxVVMtL4A1b4NmYHR6qkGjOiXHmSt-2Bqrg-3D-3D) (Sept 18). He tracks the *ratio* of gold-mining shares to gold itself. For decades before 2008, miners were valued at 18–35% of an ounce of gold; that collapsed to 4% by late 2015 and stayed stuck between 5% and 8.5% ever since, a miserable, 13-year-long dead zone. In August, he says, that ratio finally broke above 9%.

Why it matters: historically, this ratio only rises when *both* the miners and gold are going up. So the breakout, in Oliver's reading, argues the whole complex is turning higher, and miners could double *relative to gold* just to reach the bottom of that old range, with the price gains far larger if gold itself runs toward $8,000–9,000. His tell that big money is quietly moving: after an August 5 buy signal, blue chips Wheaton Precious Metals and Newmont "went back to their highs" with "thin air, no resistance," which he reads as early rotation out of stocks and bonds into mining shares. He also cited Morgan Stanley's shift toward a "60-20-20" portfolio, 20% in gold.

### Michael Gentile: the leverage nobody has enjoyed yet

If Oliver made the chart case, Michael Gentile made the arithmetic case for junior miners on [Palisades Gold Radio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjMFxJfgkEnW7rGeq19XEeal06I4RTBAnjGbTPo5Kb8WQ14eipz6hY6ExMEozVeKDDnrKU2TKIKdQ9oLm6B-2FBpnClL-2BPStt-2FPGSLul-2FamzWgA-3D-3DKRuj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcohURCRsWi7fN4kDZy8N1VinivdTzCLGsdzScAKVhlEe7zDb9u9VqPmWyUupjY-2BZvfPxH367YJ-2FovUZbmSVQqc-2FgajjtsaZoTQxV3TGjUsGX7mrpg6w6QVScoTiaSNqZ7gA-3D-3D) (Sept 19). Gentile owns 35 junior mining companies as their largest shareholder, so this is his book.

His math: a decade ago, producers earned roughly $500 of profit per ounce and would pay $50–$100 per ounce of gold "in the ground" to buy a junior's deposit. Today producers earn something like **$2,000 per ounce** (gold near $4,500, all-in costs $2,000–$2,500), yet juniors still trade at that same old $30–$100 per ounce. If a fair price is 10–20% of the spot gold price, that's **$200–$400+ per ounce**, a 5-to-10-times re-rating, before any new ounces are found. He points to two 2026 deals as proof the majors know it: Agnico Eagle bought Rupert Resources at over $500/oz in the ground, and G Mining was bought by G2 Goldfields at roughly $600/oz, "and nobody fired them." His discipline: only own assets that make money at $2,000–$2,500 gold, not ones that *need* $4,000+. The "rising tide" leg of a junior bull market, he says, is one investors "have yet to enjoy."

### Porter Collins, Brien Lundin, Jérémie Boyer, Axel Merk: different desks, same posture

- **Porter Collins**, of *The Big Short* fame, is now betting on gold miners. On [Mining Stock Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiFLn1Qls7LxM4UXQeotJFoQoaHoufSTB99Js2dTofStUwRcJZDRtmmSiTrH2ICxgc2-2BMubw-2F5LMgibV4TNroyNK-2BBtNJwA4hTNDL-2Be5xtJ-2BA-3D-3DMrPI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcogJ4SMkaKF4yToSQo-2FwxZ6V6kLMA4IEj1T-2FTEiDvH3-2BA8ZH7K7EXT6WWNKrZEcJ65hzdFPpO-2BITXO1Nm6qA-2BsXC31acXcGIao0xr08idcRP1TFFqNtCs17dBJIFg4P-2FfoA-3D-3D) (Sept 18) he argued the "higher rates = lower gold" link broke down in 2024 and that the Fed is cornered: with $2 trillion annual deficits, "gold investors are the only sane people." He buys miners that can grow production 10–20% and warns of "a rolling debt problem" hiding in private credit, AI debt and commercial real estate. His base case for how it ends: "if there's a problem, the Fed's going to print the money."
- **Brien Lundin**, editor of *Gold Newsletter*, drew a direct line to December 2015 on [The KE Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg9Y92apGboOvYDd4uqkVI1Wu4NyLsEDvk5jHAtCahqj4fi6WFyLoU8Jn1xE1Zr23FuVlg3D2rcokKUNyg6wWPufnj-2FS-2FujDEnLWZZdeT9wiA-3D-3DX4q1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcojxeQ9J-2BgRCWQqwo-2B4eeZPL6c-2BdSgkhgzTHZIV7e6hhWsp2iWhjbJNf1OzdT0eUD42xbvBZ5Qw-2FMc-2B8-2FhOnUP5x4h7x1ssezrdIyJL6KHMFX77c6WVyBbnhLFznM3pVS3w-3D-3D) (Sept 18). Back then the Fed's first hike released the short-selling pressure on gold, and junior miners ran 4-to-5-fold over the next six months. The difference now, he says, is that this time there are eager buyers (central banks and institutions) "taking the price." His neat summary: rising yields signal repayment risk (bullish for gold), and anyone still buying bonds is betting the Fed will be forced to cut (also bullish for gold): "either of the two primary paths… is bullish for gold." He expects Warsh managed "one hike for credibility's sake" and can't afford a real hiking campaign.
- **Jérémie Boyer** of Aurelion, whose model portfolio is up 38% this year, told [Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjUeveanRcXRcNJbpnc2Lu4KExf3tVy97YSRpuTY7qLtHvv6qLEW8LhTx32tzkB0FJWKdC-2BWzMjfuPuqYARhbfC-2FJMXUdCWn-2B2SyRP58eIAAQ-3D-3DUazG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcotXc4qesdLNlgEYexgVlqu6-2BT1ZzkPZSsh42zsc0rSq2jDT1ai0-2FINvbU024VuFac-2B27cC3wbc1PC7cOii7q7UZjQB7iXrMbuaxAEqgX38DXkyAkzvAdf-2B4qmbsqVOJ9MA-3D-3D) (Sept 20) that interest rates are now maybe "30% of" the gold story: geopolitics, fear, and central-bank buying (accelerating since Russia's reserves were frozen in 2022) matter more. He'd sold his miners in January's frenzy and is only now buying back in, admitting he's "not the earliest" with the group already up ~40% off its lows.
- **Merk** added a forward-looking twist: in 2011, "software eating the world" was so cheap and profitable that mining couldn't compete for capital, and that marked the last gold peak. Today's hot thing, AI, is enormously capital-hungry, so "miners, I think, can compete better." And if an AI bust ever triggers a debt problem, he expects the Fed to cut.

### On the individual big names

There was no dedicated deep-dive on Newmont, Agnico Eagle or Barrick this week, but technician **Mike Larson** flagged on [The KE Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg3sXNr90VCv77HFagqg9lBOMRpoMHDnhlqjPM1him6X1SSAhBbyC8a1nYRIymqCYnBnoJsU3uRi88o1xFY0Wwjc-2FeM4o60iWdufDZM0AHVOA-3D-3DTNIE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2Fcooe2PwvGVkxsb1NJMYjHP8g5p0lHOgwoO1SlxdtPK4ki7zdK9afL9cbsLJWHMLLJrVWvZ8XfNBikGS4FJCQzF8iMTJLatB8g1skvvKvBknK38BDeBn4aOoyOuAmOTMGJ3g-3D-3D) (Sept 17) that Newmont hit an all-time high near **$135.29** about four weeks ago, a hair above its earlier 2024 high of $134.88. He sees a possible "double top" but reads the recent pullback as a healthy "bull flag" holding support; GDX and GLD both retested and held key moving averages, which he called "an extremely powerful potential setup" if the higher low holds. And **Kip Herriage** on the [VRA Investing Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXHSQOCofEOlYG05F813KUIDJJE-2FTHo8Ero9UnFdXYPWWdMbdtCEVH-2BYvfPFRfmQ5smGSmcrQQ4fK-2FlrPpP9YVKV3lQSwHUyC0yYgOAu-2FSgw-3D-3DdTLe_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2Fcols2eSp6DzYWtscTDXt0rSZ4qHsdTKR2EMg0cvWN64755gp0ocGpOhi4L8veewys9W40ab4HFkXes8-2FCJlS2BSRiQLXPyZrpTnIjlthUaCciigUu4m9gwzljvQ6XIQbgtA-3D-3D) (Sept 22) noted seasonality has "flipped to uber bullish" for gold and gold miners into the spring; he prefers the larger, more liquid gold miners to silver, and flagged that his firm and its subscribers own 15–20% of Vista Gold and are unhappy with the price of its proposed Artemis Gold buyout.

## Part 3: The platinum-group metals, a rare, detailed look

Platinum, palladium and rhodium usually get skipped in gold newsletters. This week they got a genuinely useful treatment from Simon Brown on [WorldWide Markets](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjlkdtgpEty5kc0E-2BpWOzuYrlAfvKe4UysJPieA42L-2BHRBQPWLQRr1jFKR2CzM0574ISwAVh-2BnQeQARBVQ0nY-2F0zOTeIkGscLVJioWl5oUEcQ-3D-3DfsA1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcoqQABdpWs1QS8ouT1FRzKl635L5yS0qfLK86KoTzPAxJfpehnphEy-2FXWApsVj7P2gfDV-2BkCtOpihTVHAP0ItXUyLygRu9HJ8HrD8VvG1kZSKfWTEt-2FxQamIAscIboHnDSw-3D-3D) (Sept 22).

The price story is two stories. Platinum hit an all-time high in January 2026 (beating even its 2008 records), then fell **almost 50%** to around $1,780 (with a July low of $1,535). Palladium fell 47% peak-to-trough. What happened: sky-high prices killed demand. When platinum neared $3,000, Chinese jewelry fabrication **collapsed 76%** and exchange-traded funds dumped over 200,000 ounces, flipping a large 2025 shortage into a small 2026 surplus.

But here's Brown's key insight: **the miners don't need higher prices to make money.** At current levels, Implats generated about $22 billion of free cash flow; Northam earned a 44.9% cash margin on a $2,338 basket; Valterra sits on $24 billion of net cash with all-in costs under $1,000 an ounce. "It's not about does the price recover," he said, "it's what do they do with the money." So far the answer is dividends and, increasingly, buying each other: Northam has takeover interest (Bloomberg suggests Valterra), with an expression-of-interest deadline of December 1, which would shrink the number of majors from four to three.

Two demand points cut against the gloom. First, the threat to platinum was never really electric cars: hybrids, which still have combustion engines, are taking share, and EVs aren't expected to outnumber gas cars until 2047, so it's "a slow bleed rather than a cliff." Second, a genuine new buyer: **AI data centers.** Industrial platinum demand is up 5% in 2026, and minor cousins are ripping: ruthenium (used in chips) is up 151% to $1,100 an ounce, iridium up 30%. The World Platinum Investment Council is pointing at China's roughly $300 billion and America's ~$600 billion in AI spending as a fresh demand source. Rhodium (a metal 100 times scarcer than gold, roughly 60–80% of it mined in South Africa) trades near $9,000 with inventories below three months of cover.

Veteran commodities trader **Fred Seguy** added a trader's-eye view on [Money of Mine](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgyzPBoysrQCBk-2ByM-2BfIXVuuLDnCM9SzuADJXNBE2XfKvd9Vt4czqSlUUn8SJYEajFtACXY9gLx34rDkC3sXnSmpSe1A0TL-2B2GGfElmpTSV5w-3D-3D7rwo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcooG-2F3XJRpqHDZYWM5PDSHt1lG-2FyUOIST1ot23p3Zp-2F9SO7YTIvGy8SoUq6Q3ZmADaGGsFZek41q432cabkC9LhVsZ-2BDaYw-2B5V8eMVn-2BTlDe2SnOl6K-2BjHsl3rxliHpe1Tg-3D-3D) (Sept 23): he rotated into platinum in 2025 and has been buying palladium again around $1,300, back inside its 2024 range. On gold, he confessed to selling out in 2024 before the big run (spooked by rising rates) and jumping back in near $4,000, ready to buy down to $3,400 if it comes: his chart read is a "wedge breakout" above the 50-day average. His broader lesson, borrowed from Nassim Taleb: "anything can happen," never say always or never, and don't overtrade.

## Part 4: The pundits, the debasement bulls vs. the skeptics

### The bulls: "the hike is proof, not a threat"

**Peter Schiff** was, as ever, the loudest. On his September 17 show, [The Peter Schiff Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgk-2Frng1O8ECyoXAVsCd5TF7QZB6LS-2F8VDiMbhS64D7W1PzSi3ifdC7yns3d5N4nkBSK-2B3KIRBt0-2BGFbzSa1Md-2FCExuQzooxxTELvmx7XB3tw-3D-3DFMYm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2Fconzf9RkQfgVIgIrVCgYWBbipNUDR00m7pKKq6X5nH6kD94BkgkJlWjaG1rIZBAjt0y-2FP09ZNm8r9-2FacrnObpoFbID-2BCnNHTQYpSsW8vXTjTS4pZyyzxLhy81T7NiopHH4g-3D-3D), he argued the Fed hiked "because it had to," did "the minimum they could possibly get away with," and that Warsh admitting he was "removing some accommodation" proves policy was never actually restrictive. Rate hikes this small, he says, "are not bad for gold… too small to make a difference"; he expects gold and yields to rise together while the dollar eventually reverses. By his September 24 show he was tallying the damage: if the average interest cost on the $40 trillion national debt reaches just 5%, that's **$2 trillion a year in interest, about 35% of all tax revenue, more than Social Security.** He seized on the McDonald's CEO conceding "inflation is going to be with us, unfortunately, many more years at elevated levels" (the stock fell 5%) as real-world proof that inflation is not "anchored at 2%."

**Lawrence Lepard** laid out the fullest version of the debasement thesis on the [Peter St Onge Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhXQoA9dZv51LS0EYzijLM2AUGoixvpfB-2Bj3xHfJ3hQEl89jiqzD-2BYKZfmjMrskSWo-2FdkHzsHrLYZSgizjz2B8dIcgO2DiNirVSOqrUHOwubA-3D-3D89WS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcoiXd7ykWGqeBz7JesG1c2bOqO4d7mVvTEzKrZkDaX-2F3QeILtWXxl64L1ywZUJRLghvJM2WorCt-2B6K2b8VlcQcuillFzSMCMddq5APctkqMA2W1rIzGNyofzsR1uy7kdMfg-3D-3D) (Sept 21). His book, *The Big Print*, argues the Fed's true job is now backstopping the government, not fighting inflation, what economists call **"fiscal dominance"** (when a government's debt is so large that keeping it affordable overrides everything else). He notes the money supply has grown ~7.6% a year since 1971 while official inflation is reported at 2–3%, and the gap, he says, is the swindle. His predicted endgame is **yield-curve control**, where the Fed simply caps interest rates by promising to buy unlimited bonds (exactly what it did in World War II), ballooning its balance sheet from $6.5 trillion toward $20 trillion. His targets: gold $6,000–$10,000 and Bitcoin $150,000–$250,000 "in the next couple of years." His crucial caveat, and a genuinely useful risk warning: in a sudden panic *everything* sells first (gold fell 25% and Bitcoin 50% in 2008) before the money-printing arrives and the hard assets rocket. "You've got to think in a couple-of-year time frame."

**Luke Gromen's** fiscal-dominance frame came through the [BTC Sessions](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0FNVQkdoCBikieKxQeqoBwbFkpgfQoEfQNfAG9E2-2BilU4i7oo5a-2BeztAiJgRiSiXhNz7IPhfBLlY-2FspHISvLjyaQlgh-2F0iefAbiLGl5t-2F7Q-3D-3DBhM4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcovL2q7QZPgUtNVBI8OwcpAMDcz3GTDWngpLZuubMQLZM01qydVhwikgs3GA8jzpJTVuvrukMA2INo1Osjl4nepH9dcaL4je3W89ZP8ZVyZKeI0yWvlkpTdnx5jafyJOYlQ-3D-3D) episode with Doomberg and James Lavish (Sept 22). The provocative idea: in a world short of energy, "you sell treasuries to buy energy," a country like Japan may prefer today's oil to a promised interest payment years from now. Doomberg relayed Grant's Interest Rate Observer calling 30-year bonds "certificates of confiscation" and asked the question hanging over the whole market: who is actually going to buy all this long-term government debt, especially with AI hyperscalers now issuing their own mountain of bonds and competing for the same lenders? Lavish added that 5% "is not really a high yield" historically, "but it is a big deal for the Treasury" given debt above 100% of the economy. Their shared conclusion: "all roads lead to printing."

**Alasdair Macleod** took it furthest on [Commodity Culture](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgO0Xks8xn4JvyBTx1hiVxpSyTSvKKS-2BN2RqLFgkOm-2BV-2BKK0xdg-2BouZa1HYMywIIS-2BYW5LHe6fBsvkXbvlfJp1Wzb5AAGrSHz9pBlyOHs6Zrw-3D-3DYsbz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcorE83Dv-2Fz4KVfYDZJwAyBGarBXpfYnLwPXHxBh7KWlAnTzTuGDEFMWjT5g7YLUQAa7ul3LTfCG2RE1n56nG5ABACPJSFxLKZEcdvjccfRGfcBVDFjBbo9Xj9drBm2xZOcQ-3D-3D) (Sept 24). Central banks stack gold, he says, simply to "get rid of fiat currencies in return for gold." His memorable illustration: a cup of coffee, priced in gold, has barely changed since 1750, because "it is not gold that is rising, it is the currency that is falling." He owns physical metal, not ETFs ("if the currency goes, the entire financial system goes with it"), and thinks the fiat system could unravel within roughly 18 months once the public grasps that prices aren't rising so much as their money is dying. (Bracing stuff, and worth reading as the far, apocalyptic end of the spectrum, not the base case.)

### The skeptics: "this is dollar strength, not dollar death"

Here's where it gets interesting, because two respected voices spent the week arguing the debasement bulls have it backwards.

**Brent Johnson**, the "Dollar Milkshake" thinker, made the strongest counterpoint across two appearances. On [The Gold Exchange Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOia2qvnZ6o9X2OKyfw1YFhkXs0UYQCWNH8-2F3Ho-2B9YxK3kozx924H4U8-2Fv-2F-2FqwalWDnrm3xYwDzWSVfugsO-2Fp3hkWrCvF8OoKlOIcDwAO-2BEUEA-3D-3D8dss_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcosbQy-2F9UAIgJ07w-2FoSeWSOj-2BGxS4Dbe5PmUc3VJLVUNLzhtG81AnkKK5Sm0j1f5HAVrLu-2FR7VkhdAQXPcdi-2FQiFScPA7SeUTcmE-2B4sNxHtuwuZoZ2aOQLqhWXZi2qv17Pw-3D-3D) (Sept 21) his line was: yes, America's finances are a disaster, but "if you zoom out… all the other trees have just as many problems as the United States, but not nearly the advantages." On [Bitcoin Magazine's BMTV](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgaAL2b04QQAYAbN1y-2Fq4gg5LMjmWvv4AYLtTnoD8Dqlv4NXx0Al-2Bp04bvfCPFfR2tdatGcA9Alqy8Suzka7LMq-2FW2fjovLmoPyIeA-2BuUd67w-3D-3DXmJp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcopAca7KfHjrjSwX0NsU1wTN9i81MJhhft70ro0dXB571wvsL4swdADXg9ukUk4fIhJvrFqs0brJOSsI9WDY57D5MZ22-2FwZ4tqoEE6QqE3tQTQXW02m6kBrGx-2B3KfK8l0-2FA-3D-3D) (Sept 23) he explained the counterintuitive core: in a genuine global debt crisis the dollar gets *stronger*, not weaker, because money becomes scarce and "the whole world owes dollars," so each one becomes more valuable. Every global slowdown in the last 25–30 years, he noted, saw the dollar rise; the 2022 episode (Japan's yen down 60%, China's property crunch, the Bank of England bailing out its own bond market) was all downstream of a strong dollar and higher U.S. rates. Crucially for gold holders, he still says "everybody should own gold" as the base of a portfolio: his disagreement is with the idea that the dollar is about to collapse, not with owning gold itself.

**Jim Bianco**, on [BMTV](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiA9TEkmWO9IQBX8TPBMeMvHxs5FXM2H86h8U0IBCTHUr-2FQ7gGtyODzNIAOxbYuh8-2FvEWRtmEWgZL1elbXS3PBBPEx0bQ7qoKHUV-2BaMJSwtaw-3D-3D3lUK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcopbQ9CsGY4-2FTdZP-2Bdro-2F6CG7IegCUudOdeYH9usHW2zy6deBKYAFL9JzVWfRQb65ZQpncSLOOK-2Fs1xKMDwYrpFj-2BFgDUB1NhZa6ieZahPL96t28Td5C9UrSmjn8V3o56mA-3D-3D) (Sept 21), drew a careful line most bulls blur. He distinguishes the "debasement trade" (literally losing confidence in the dollar) from a simple "purchasing-power protection mechanism." They get conflated, he says, but they're not the same thing. He also offered the most bullish-on-the-Fed read of the week: the 10-year yield rising from 3.7% to 5% *during* a two-year cutting cycle was "the first time in over 50 years," a clear market verdict that policy had been too loose, which the hike begins to fix. He thinks the Fed may hike again on October 28, a week before the midterms, even though Wall Street assumes it can't.

And the show's hosts floated a genuine "white pill" worth sitting with: maybe rising yields are a **growth signal, not a credibility crisis.** The tell, they argued, is the dollar: it's holding around 100 and up on the month, meaning capital is flowing *in*, not fleeing. If yields were spiking while the dollar collapsed, that would be fiscal panic; yields up with a firm dollar looks more like a fast-growing economy repricing. Foreign selling, they noted, isn't coordinated either: China has been trimming, but Japan is actually *buying* Treasuries (selling would weaken the yen it's trying to defend).

**Michael Howell**, via [The Pomp Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhoRAcvTGUtClS8egDpnKcAzLgozf3rzOJjjnOWKumNUCQ3AoeiBi3IDLbcPqyQdFTDPHkBKlSMbyZPinbCPr7tVITzQTcfKqSZYmzY33Ppkg-3D-3DPX0F_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVV-2F8SNvrsz1zjGhmpkMUz3oKDDLAaTfsmwyJFRo6-2FcoqtRP5h9-2FC12K-2F7o0dTTTK4ogIxK8BAg1khB1rden8HyFMp1EFuRFrFh1gzv7ZtL84VK3mWf0c11wWOHYPIyIv98olp1DvQPOjy42CN2xALRLZZMMyZj-2BBTBB7W93xy4-2FQ-3D-3D) (Sept 19), added a subtler skepticism: the old link between money-printing, growth and jobs has broken (profits now rise without hiring, with employment outside healthcare negative for ~20 months), so the future flood of "liquidity" may come from tokenizing dormant assets rather than the money-supply growth the debasement crowd watches.

## The bottom line

Strip away the noise and the week rhymes with an old pattern the operators keep pointing to: December 2015, when a long-dreaded first rate hike turned out to be the bottom for gold, not the top. This time the bond market is far more stressed, the deficits far larger, and, critically, there are now real buyers (central banks, institutions) standing underneath the price. The people running mine portfolios and precious-metals funds are, almost to a person, using this pullback to add, and pointing at a mining-shares breakout that's been 13 years in the making.

The honest counterweight comes from Brent Johnson and Jim Bianco: don't confuse "the dollar is doomed" with "own some gold." The dollar can stay king (even get *stronger* in a crisis) and gold can still belong at the base of a portfolio. Those two things aren't contradictory, and the week's yields-up, dollar-up, gold-only-slightly-down tape is exactly the ambiguous evidence both camps can claim.

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