# Novo Opens the Door to Acquisitions as the Pharma Tariff Takes Effect - The Biotech Patent Cliff & M&A - Week of September 25, 2026 > The Biotech Patent Cliff & M&A newsletter for the week of September 25, 2026. Novo signals it is open to acquisitions as its stock falls, Viking raises about $500M rather than wait for a bid, and the 100% Section 232 pharma tariff takes effect September 29 with new carve-outs. ## The Biotech Patent Cliff & M&A ### Week of September 25, 2026: Novo Opens the Door to Acquisitions as the Pharma Tariff Takes Effect --- ## TL;DR - **Novo is now openly shopping for acquisitions.** Its September 21 investor day (a "capital markets day," where management lays out long-range targets) sent the stock down about 8%. Novo's CEO then told CNBC that "when the gap can be filled with that M&A, we are actually quite interested." Viking jumped 32–35% on maintenance data the next day, and a CNBC panel put a takeout at "seven and a half, $8 billion." Two days later Viking raised about $500M, so it can fund itself for now. - **The 100% pharma tariff (Section 232) still takes effect Tuesday, Sept 29 at 12:01am.** New carve-outs this week cover orphan drugs, cell and gene therapies, ADCs and clinical-trial supplies. Vertex, Biogen and Alnylam still haven't signed a pricing deal with the White House. The Trump–Xi summit ran Sept 23–25, and nothing pharma-specific came out of it that we could confirm. The Treasury rule on licensing Chinese drugs is still a draft. - **A correction, and a clock.** Vertex agreed on July 6 to buy Crinetics for **$85/share in cash (~$10B equity, ~$8.8B net of cash)**, and it's due to close this quarter, which ends in five days. Our last several issues kept listing CRNX as a "takeout candidate with zero chatter." It had already been taken out. We've removed it from the target list below. --- ## The one thing to know this week Two weeks ago the worry was Novartis's $40B appetite. Last week, Washington looked set to keep the China drug pipeline open. This week the most important buyer in the room turned out to be the one with the biggest problem. Novo had its long-range planning day in London on Monday, and investors didn't like what they heard. The stock fell 7–8%. By Tuesday its CEO was on television saying the company is open to buying growth. On the same Tuesday, the most obvious obesity bolt-on in the market (Viking) had its best day since February 2024. Then Viking did what Blackstone's Nick Galakatos described on last week's BioCentury Show. It raised money instead of waiting for a buyer. That sequence is the week in miniature. **Buyers have motive, and targets now have the capital to hold out for a better price.** For anyone betting on quick, cheap takeouts, that's a problem. --- ## What's new ### 1. Novo's investor day disappoints, and the CEO opens the M&A door **What happened.** Novo (it has dropped "Nordisk" from its name) held its capital markets day on September 21. The company targets more than DKK 150B in pipeline sales by 2035 and more than five "multi-blockbusters" (drugs with several billion dollars a year of sales) by 2030. It guided to 2026–30 revenue growth "in line with industry peers" and a "broadly stable" operating margin. The stock was down 7.1% at 10am and more than 8% intraday ([Novo Nordisk investor release](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NhpEO2UESswZf9xOzTN-2BZ8uXip-2Fa2v7YEmszJosufDS-2FOzhnitIuefZPVE3Pc02vH-2FECxDIfpdiSH6VteW3jBpEewQuzVxWXHm5z-2FxGxIH0LrW8CPTJWsxT4GDzWwE1ZxA-3D-3DNya2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNnvt3OTni-2BaQOL79lntGkTt3Eww-2F0HQesABK1GKNM5NYRYuLL5reE2K1vOAEu9yR3WE0wlbjWG88ovMPeKOoijR8wI0Zul3jTeHS4XVpKyEjMEgZtxLpM5PQciVFvF-2BPCA-3D-3D)). **Journalists: the BioSpace podcast** ([BioSpace: "Novo's turnaround plan, weight loss wins, Ultragenyx's Sanfilippo approval, IPO blitz," Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhgfNHLtpqay9Hj3axMY05UV1YNBAkuK1x-2FMPfQXWHGo6i9mQRZN6STiE3X0DnrxvPbpTZt3BJ-2B9UR75ELAaQ-2BNIfolu40VfBFhocoZY7rxfg-3D-3DR1Oe_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNglxJjpsM7wcPE15A6w-2B25eGStPKxsQm8jYgYy5wBsB94wsnHNmCSqPGdUaUMhwMy5HYrpEw-2FdEMkoSzq7MIyVLBhdNI-2B5xB3L6nllGq0ER3l3KnV0O7NfXTiGbB7HsAZw-3D-3D)) covered the detail. Senior editor Annalie Armstrong said analysts called the plan "pretty much like in line with what investors and analysts expected," which "set the stock down 8% by close on Monday." Other points from the episode: - **Workforce.** About 4,000 more people have left on top of last year's ~9,000 cuts, taking the total down to "about 13,000 people, full-time equivalents." Novo said the new reductions came mostly from attrition and not backfilling roles. - **Oral Wegovy.** The pill has about 1.5 million patients. Novo plans to expand manufacturing tenfold by 2030 to answer the worry that Lilly's small-molecule pill (Foundayo) is easier to make at scale. BioSpace notes the CEO literally told investors "you don't have to worry about this anymore." - **Deals.** Novo bought three early-stage obesity molecules from Calliope: one potentially first-in-class peptide and two small molecules. It also signed an Orbis Medicines partnership for oral cardiometabolic drugs worth up to $1.4B. **Pundits: Brew Markets** ([Brew Markets: "Novo's Next Act & What Happened to Nike?", Sept 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjD1RG45kAEyEI-2FK0ONL1Z92kN9cU9-2BT7sn4HOsfJ0ANzZlYjsZGfwJO9OuK92Lh40CNurHJD2W57X68FQDqyz-2BVM1k-2B22P0XhLZ7zk6IiUVA-3D-3D9X9r_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNpNnF0HgpyngsMkKdR06xLwEpnDyid1TDL1qy8FbakmyNcK8Gco4gJ-2B0PxWe4h1tc-2B3a9DLSHHgoeZMBOowD1fbxi9PRAvhmd94fApCGEqy4yy-2F8WsslcfU4fZfucUa5Tw-3D-3D)) laid out the patent cliff simply. The stock is "down 70% since mid 2024." Semaglutide's US patent "expires in 2032," and "half the company's revenue is tied to those patents." Full-year revenue is expected to be "flat to maybe down 6%." **Operator: the CEO's M&A comment** aired on **CNBC's Fast Money** ([Fast Money: "Meta's Muse Ripple Effects… And A Coiled Spring In Google 9/22/26," Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgn7-2ByrmuvdxSWMl5snrfK9nBzfKf2zYFlN5dP6t4uw8-2FmE9XfZL9DR6CDNIv2lghw5086AJheB0zy4aIGCtTfCefiBSh2Y9WhGiWMQT9GO4w-3D-3DSIqV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNttaKNnqUa2wzTxQNCvidO3zrmf22NXr8e31z4n-2FSrFr-2FjbhEybz8TVBQ7n0-2BqTbyIE8IZ3gJVtaqyutAGYDReZUZ-2BECXF566PETtWZTDS9EqJjJGHPa7JMKwG2A6dz2qw-3D-3D)), which played Novo CEO Mike Doustdar's CNBC Europe clip: "when the gap can be filled with that M&A, we are actually quite interested about it." MT Newswires (Sept 22) reported the same thing: Doustdar is considering acquisitions to fill portfolio gaps. **Sell-side.** Deutsche Bank cut its price target to DKK 245 from DKK 265 and kept a Sell (Sept 22, via MT Newswires). The deal machine didn't stop for the selloff. On Sept 25, Novo licensed Nanexa's PharmaShell long-acting injectable technology for up to five programs. The deal is worth up to EUR 1.165B in total, with EUR 615M of that in upfront plus development and regulatory milestones (MT Newswires). **Why it matters.** Novo has been on the "firepower-rich" list in our coverage universe since this newsletter began. It still has the cash. What changed this week is that it has said out loud that it wants to use it. **A buyer that says it's motivated, while its own stock is falling, is the kind that pays up.** Watch obesity, cardiometabolic and oral-delivery assets first. --- ### 2. Viking: the takeout chatter finally arrives, and so does a stock sale **What happened.** Viking's VK2735 maintenance study came out on Sept 22. Patients who switched to less frequent dosing kept up to 90% of their weight loss on monthly dosing and up to 97% on every-other-week dosing. Induction weight loss was 17.8% at the 17.5mg dose. The stock rose as much as 32.5% to $39.89 intraday ([The Fly video](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NgzViS9i5NmxyUXCGlHz1XYLFwNFgB7GBwFgc8Rrfwnvc3Be-2FilFjfKsO6pHZ5kPtA-3D-3DqlLJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNnYntVgzMvXmKxnXN3qOBgXOFoaJ3jLnNkWG5lOE-2BsB3QGAqQg8MET0MhPH4ltVEVFcOoJFjn0Z5Kr-2BBlnXJNj-2Fo0zlxV3RYTU0FVTRgNCDw2suFIlE3eoPEAbA2QH3L2A-3D-3D)). **Journalists.** On the **BioSpace** podcast (same episode as above), senior editor Heather McKenzie said Viking "couldn't have gotten much better news in this phase one exploratory maintenance study." She noted that Truist put the results in its "best case scenario" and William Blair called it a "maintenance trifecta." Stomach-related side effects in the 12-week maintenance period were "comparable to placebo." **Pundits: Fast Money** (Sept 22, link above) put Viking straight into M&A terms. One panelist called it "a three and a half billion dollar market cap where this could be a game changer for a company that needs to add on," and said "this type of a bolt-on makes a ton of sense." Another went further: "Viking deal would probably be seven and a half, $8 billion deal. Summit Therapeutics is out there. We talk about GPCR…" A third panelist raised the bear case in one line. Better maintenance on less frequent dosing "would be potentially troubling for the ones that have a model that's sort of based on the premise of maintaining." In other words, it's bad for any franchise that assumes patients stay on weekly shots forever. **Then the twist.** On Sept 23 Viking announced $200M of stock plus $200M of convertible bonds. On Sept 24 it priced an upsized deal of about $500M: 7.86M shares at $35 plus $225M of 2.00% convertibles due 2032. The stock fell 14.0% to $35.83 (MT Newswires). Oppenheimer raised its price target to $120 from $100 and lifted its probability of success to 90% from 80%. Truist went to $87, Morgan Stanley is Overweight at $95, and H.C. Wainwright is at Buy $102 (Sept 22–23, MT Newswires/The Fly). **Why it matters.** This is the first real single-name takeout chatter on any of our SMID targets in five weeks, and the CNBC panel even put a number on it. But a company that expects a bid within weeks rarely sells stock at $35 a day after trading near $40. **Management just bought itself time to wait for a better price.** That fits last week's theme: non-dilutive and structured capital (royalty deals, debt, converts) lets targets turn down lowball bids. Galakatos said it; Viking did it. --- ### 3. The tariff goes live Tuesday. China licensing survives the summit, still in draft **The tariff (Section 232).** Our checks found no delay. The 100% duty on branded and patented drugs and their active ingredients starts **Tuesday, Sept 29 at 12:01am EDT** for importers without a deal. This week brought two sets of carve-outs: - **Sept 21–22:** a Commerce Department (BIS) notice gives 0% rates to orphan drugs, plasma-derived products, cell and gene therapies, nuclear medicines and ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates, a type of targeted cancer drug), if they come from one of 19 designated countries or pass an "urgent U.S. health need" test. - **Sept 23:** a second notice exempts investigational drugs and clinical-trial supplies. Companies that signed "most-favored-nation" pricing deals (agreeing to match the lowest prices paid abroad) plus onshoring plans pay 0% through January 20, 2029. The claimed tiers are 15% for the EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland, and 20% for companies with only an onshoring plan. Generics and biosimilars are exempt. *Caveat: all of the tariff mechanics come from web reporting whose source links we could not verify. We've left links out rather than guess.* **The holdouts.** Nobody new signed this week. The last wave was Aug 31: nine companies including Teva, CSL, UCB and Astellas, with $19.6B of manufacturing pledges. **Vertex, Biogen and Alnylam still haven't signed** (web reporting, unverified). Alnylam is reportedly part of a mid-sized biotech group, alongside BioMarin and Madrigal, that opposes the deals. We did learn one new detail about the deals themselves. Under Pfizer's contract, **HHS gets a share of the extra revenue if Pfizer raises prices abroad**, on existing medicines, from Jan 1, 2026 to Jan 20, 2029 ([Bloomberg, Sept 19](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NlSp5ufABuWMKvXuNiUHbZ9gRBQt0YS8RXMUgJyAj-2FDPyt0LOJpDsSe0IxAQFHX12QChmwobRU95hj8OPlCJ-2BSKrcLWIbN3BndlQYMWHGlonnOlWqSJLeJclo2ZhbXZ4I-2FKdciMQmKddew-2FstyrV8mw-3DxoEK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNiQ8KVIj5-2BN7o0mZPGrXgFB-2B1zXIqW-2FRFPUb97-2FEx6UYRmtz1lZI7Jzw4oCqWa4346qULMSvNahqnaxyYpgCAG2EgMyfL0E6nEuxFx-2BHuKSam4QoFKZdDcMpFl-2FoDvYNBQ-3D-3D)). A White House fact sheet obtained by Public Citizen says Pfizer must "repatriate increased foreign revenue on existing products" (MT Newswires, Sept 21). Put simply, a signed deal is not free. It limits how much a company gains from raising prices overseas. **China.** Last week's Reuters story still stands. Treasury is drafting rules that "would likely preserve their ability to strike most licensing deals for Chinese drugs" ([Reuters, Sept 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NpeKJbqi1xHn-2BFeix4-2FtwJouOfbeLt-2FKAnFaxusPpSGbkrrft3olcHhZYbrK9Ao7ew5xKAE7GDwfgASIlayMQUe3PvJTMmvq3b-2BFRnPyRpCLhaLJlso9IZ2JdtepCprW5-2B-2BkQ7cUaKFnuBZqgVXlNSM-3D1Cnx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNu3qmJMQN1BiOoifa7ySv2p-2FnR1fXJOQ9h8gaUAtNOCEjKVc7JiClIe-2FToPoJzDMxKdJxig-2BWaHfLlWkDDD-2F43bcdO-2Bdd1pneZ-2B1PnAS7kbEYEbfoyLT-2Fmwzlo3JQL2wsA-3D-3D)). Pfizer's Albert Bourla was expected at the Sept 24 White House state dinner for Xi ([Reuters, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NpeKJbqi1xHn-2BFeix4-2FtwJrAk75euPov6X1lbrushdVtN5qUZMoXZ1MQpao3-2FvyKVQp6HCLQBCOzjWVg3OaRD9TWLO5Fp8wE0XHZtSJu05N5VdRUNAlSPG3SEE3yUcJicMnCI9VAK4VPic-2B9ykpy9io95PeY0780SuvM8cYajHikaTjf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNuNyFnw-2BIWjnA5DcvNd6JkiVJRDcDDlrjSRo6tnJmL5ass3QNcX73Dm-2F04BIc9QyzPw8dXN4wLYjA6ul95FQRFKtSaILzzW8h5HH1dauje-2BiNcZZdiGX3D8l8fPx2u5mvQ-3D-3D)). Web reports on the summit's outcome mention an extended tariff truce into early 2027, an AI dialogue, and APEC and G20 dates, but no pharma-specific terms that we could confirm. The Hang Seng biotech index rose about 5% on Sept 21 (web, unverified). **Journalist on the ground: The Readout Loud** ([The Readout Loud: "The FDA's Overton era, and dispatches from Shanghai," Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhCoOoeWLi83mY9iZ-2BEtc2-2B-2B637v47CKoX8GkK0Cju8biXS25CMiOYe1PLc1LWXx2ezyjcI7dgc6CPGwDw27FCH-2FD5OeZncCz1A1gbqMyZapQ-3D-3DntPV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNi6ADbG5sASbJ2mcOu2uSiyAbNFd3DP-2BKwdI1H7Ou-2BKdOyv6ZW0qHwXpdn7bFK6TEtkeXnncE2mdMek4mQgXt966z5JZexoQrCvO-2BorvRbzwYeGbNJXhb-2BCE46NJe7oprQ-3D-3D)) had STAT's reporter Jason calling in from a Shanghai biotech conference. It was the best color on China all week: > "The competition for molecules here is as high as it's ever been, and people are actively bidding against each other and bidding against other investors, bidding against pharma companies. It's basically a gold rush out here." - **The workaround.** Chinese biotechs "license their assets or their early-stage molecules to a new company that is set up by U.S. investors," because "it's easier to then sell to a U.S. pharma company." This is the NewCo model. Geopolitics is "the 100-pound gorilla in the room," but "so far it hasn't dragged down" the industry. - **The competitive threat.** One Chinese biotech CEO told him: "U.S. companies cannot compete. We are too fast. We are too efficient." - **The risk.** Three patient deaths in investigator-initiated gene therapy trials have led Beijing to add "new controls on these kinds of trials." (Investigator-initiated trials are early studies that don't need full central regulatory sign-off.) - **The money.** RA Capital's Joshua Resnick is setting up in Shanghai, and other US venture firms are opening offices there. **Why it matters.** The tariff mostly hits companies that haven't signed deals. Among our names, that's the Vertex question. It also puts a small tax on the signers' foreign pricing (Pfizer). China remains the cheapest source of pipeline for cliff-exposed buyers, and the NewCo structure lets deals go ahead whatever Treasury finally writes. --- ### 4. Merck's week: more answers to "what replaces Keytruda?" Merck got the best set of headlines of any cliff-exposed name this week. - **FDA approval (Sept 24–25):** Welireg plus Lenvima (with Eisai) in advanced clear-cell kidney cancer after PD-(L)1 therapy. Median progression-free survival (time before the cancer worsens) was 14.6 vs 10.6 months vs cabozantinib, a 26% risk reduction ([FDA](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NvsX3snHRQPUanXo4P5D6l-2BKfSEj4Whqmz5SRN96-2BTexK4-2Bps1-2F-2BvoQeGPJMlrSFdUBaoZJfKRDP4AZBoylUgTNHVMZo8zRaUEBsiuiK4-2FmUwzOVDxeUjdD7eWZmrvuC2-2B310iI0ynBJZzFeSL1J7QGmGiTxj58W6Lc-2BSL6tCYL1UnPdbD8R01RvUN9YXzeP6qDabqWy79yXrGZqnZ0LrjU-3Dov4L_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNqmINmzOfSzWX7uJZG1N1IpcR8czVCFpjygysUmbJJN4-2B-2B8WAXTawdedXkbbvni6tM-2Bkb2L9kxAEQYZaFN9jaZRwJXEHP1wBd99YRlQ3eCWY7OI-2B-2B4d2ncVRXyX336G6xw-3D-3D)). - **Winrevair label update (Sept 22):** the HYPERION data, with a 76% reduction in clinical worsening (HR 0.24) (MT Newswires). - **Remigromig (MK-3000), BRUNELLO trial in diabetic macular edema (Sept 24):** both doses were non-inferior to ranibizumab on vision at week 52, meaning no worse than the standard drug. Full data at AAO on Oct 10. UBS rates it Buy with a $175 target and calls this, plus the TL1A ulcerative colitis Phase 3, overlooked catalysts. MRK closed at $149.64 (+1.05%) (MT Newswires). TD Cowen raised its target to $155 from $137 (Hold). - **Keytruda under the skin:** Japan approved Keytruda Qlex (planned brand "Keyject") for all Japanese Keytruda uses, at 1 minute every 3 weeks or 2 minutes every 6 weeks (Sept 21, MT Newswires). The EU's CHMP opinion on Keytruda plus Padcev in bladder cancer "also includes Keytruda SC" (Sept 18). The subcutaneous version is Merck's main defense against IV biosimilars. - **ESMO:** web reports say Moderna/Merck's INTerpath-001 personalized cancer vaccine Phase 3 in melanoma is **LBA1 (the first late-breaking abstract) in the ESMO Presidential Symposium on Oct 24** (unverified). **Pundits.** The **Telltales** weekly update ([Telltales: "Weekend Update - W2638," Sept 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhZ-2FJ5Ok-2Fe5MZWr8Fddfoy7Q4SbetImquvFhIIDk2s-2B7KIvkE0p879W4Olb2E9MEMiGDHnSVtoK21Ay2A28VpWA22leNdV-2Ff5RaRnoOvVHzjA-3D-3DtHiV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNhfbwtnU1z-2BLdLyRoW2pHymEFikpBmrcXRpHtu7l9PnfJ3-2BwX5lRdFDt-2FXcG-2B8pwEBAtdEIVpYcdmg-2B4PAzhpZ6YLX31UnPKTNr4MXhQbIpz89EpIch60OCv3ZJLVy72fg-3D-3D)) summed it up: "For a company that has spent three years being asked what replaces Keytruda when the patents run out, that's two answers inside seven days, and one of them is a mechanism Merck does not have to invent on its own." That refers to the Moderna vaccine win and the Winrevair label. *Note: Telltales says both of its voices are AI-generated. Treat it as commentary, not reporting.* **Why it matters, and what's still missing.** None of this is Keytruda-sized. Keytruda did ">$31B" last year, according to last week's Big Take Asia podcast, and loses US exclusivity in 2028. But the "Merck has nothing" bear case gets harder to argue every week. **Still missing for the sixth straight week: any US number on how many Keytruda patients are converting to the subcutaneous version.** That is the single metric that decides how much of the 2028 cliff Merck actually keeps. --- ### 5. Revolution Medicines: the CEO tells the story, the insiders sell a little, no bidder appears **Operator: Oncology Brothers** ([Oncology Brothers: "Revolution Medicines CEO Dr. Mark Goldsmith: Daraxonrasib dream to reality," Sept 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgKkIQpCXL2sHa7wJS1cai7N0C2XMJc2VpX2QH-2BJ-2FQX7p2AZa4BWdGFBfNW6OiqH-2Bg28-2Fhb13wdJeIfdcda2IWamomwG1weM6WNuLSYEqYPLQ-3D-3D1hMt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNuO0NnpbyLv9NeSHRA-2F-2FCWMkphnz7-2FiwX3k32ZgnxoKfNZ-2BZT6ojN3gzr0ZuAJze632N6unSoKV9whRArzjj5zKX-2BgCoIQrsBIJ7xBoaQw7zhpGXWYYylHlA6Defq7uLQw-3D-3D)) had RevMed CEO Mark Goldsmith with the two oncologist hosts. Daraxonrasib (brand Rasonque) is a pan-RAS inhibitor, a pill that blocks all mutant forms of the RAS cancer gene. The hosts say it was approved on August 26. Goldsmith's points: - **Early signal.** The first sign of activity came at the lowest dose, 10mg, well below the 80mg the team expected to need for tumor shrinkage. The approved dose is 300mg. - **The ambition.** A colleague told him early on, "Mark, I think we're going to bend the mortality curve in pancreatic cancer." The long-term goal is to make RAS-driven cancers "chronically managed diseases." - **Demand.** RevMed "underestimated the scope of the demand" for its expanded-access program (the pathway that lets patients get a drug before approval). Past programs typically "numbered in the 500s." RevMed hit its planned capacity "in the first day" and has now served "thousands of patients." - **Side effects.** They are mostly Grade 1–2 rash and gut effects, managed with doxycycline and antidiarrheals. **The tape around it (news).** BofA raised its target to $265 from $225 (Buy) on Sept 21, and Goldman resumed at Buy with $267 on Sept 24 (The Fly). Goldsmith sold 13,988 shares for $2,786,938 on Sept 16 ([SEC Form 4](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NvQ2yqv0V9XLq5NHTenejuPXKgjv7V2qvGZEZuO1v10j4NilsYua8TDPMD7S9i8MGVWiLa7UVU3aMonwKL-2FtBssSG5w4Hl9foNOBeSi1IdVuPNmHEdma2dWepv0MKONxKw-3D-3Dmtca_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNocT-2FY1oWfKgmy-2BDUFojlkyds5iFW-2B58jeVSTq7ylmeEy8hFKjE57TVYsN42-2FRifVSC-2FQ-2FsGmut345PMUek63NsbVnIDvpNI3-2B-2FtNsoUGQehuLKY9spRAuFDcG8cnYtU6g-3D-3D)). Senior Advisor Stephen Kelsey sold 5,569 shares for $1,109,554 ([SEC Form 4](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NvQ2yqv0V9XLq5NHTenejuPXKgjv7V2qvGZEZuO1v10jNOWAXgIWpQeXYo5-2BUYeKD478-2FUYleZNEmF9cd-2BK8GTv9fE1YBvvuBZZxKh25HxQIIkZ2p11eFEuX3d5u0XgxJA-3D-3Dk4kJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNq3iiPzdZbOk0H-2B0MagKV5vFZUIHwfutiAy-2BgbfJejIV8KYOKffTGA5hzSWDLyFFJhl6LuNK6uWoJtmFpnr9BWTtJDbrH5Ujln2BCsrB0k7eSFHbz8xIgSdh3yvAqp6UpQ-3D-3D)). Neither sale is large enough to worry about, but neither suggests a bid is days away. We found no new bidder. Web reporting still describes the earlier Merck talks (a reported $28–32B) as having collapsed in January (unverified). **The competitor.** Incyte's KRAS G12D inhibitor INCB161734 got a dedicated episode ([OncLive On Air: "INCB161734 Holds Potential Significance for KRAS G12D–Mutated mPDAC Management," Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhOzf81AAQdtoClYwHWR5hJf2uPR-2BMIeM0IkS5jFKAU5GfdULgbCO1nzVUiHzkWzkXkfL-2Bu3YC0Zw1vLBx-2FCNmI-2Fe-2FbLd5sV1TdJsGUzJdqsA-3D-3DDshs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNif-2BYmKaCPtzgjW65dH8FkiFJ6X-2BnmNTI-2F8V6r11-2BqijlAJG7gFE28FjoXMKdX-2FcoA-2Fj4mVghmvePZ0seFqlmpBuXvgl9pcOY8j-2FkXRPuct7You56Trru0iqoS2EfQ1Pcw-3D-3D)) covering its Phase 3 DAWN-303 trial in metastatic pancreatic cancer. It's a narrower mechanism than RevMed's pan-RAS approach, but it targets the most common pancreatic mutation. **Why it matters.** RVMD is now a commercial-stage company, with Street targets in the mid-$260s, a launch and an expanded-access base in the thousands. The cheap window for a Merck-style buyer has closed. Any deal from here is a platform-sized cheque. --- ## Also this week (shorter takes) - **Lilly's CEO on Medicare obesity coverage (operator).** On **Halftime Report** ([Halftime Report: "Stocks Rise as Oil and Yields Ease: Your Next Move 9/21/26," Sept 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhnOw6Ci0pcy2AvoZmpeHnQbQ7GZsbPFwgFcVBRx0A7sB-2FFW8g-2FcgHx7qdVTBvyT8jeATyQZ39p5TP1mFARDn9WDJjS7lSQhAX4imaArzn6Og-3D-3DdTYi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNo20dNDEqKshWyDh8L0wqcdUp7RsNnME9j5VTa1NgGIeEKcjURbnWGwZz-2BuGRDtcGfwetZmYUzUIPDplw7AsrVelmKlSf7klO3f4ZJcDCIQt9padpXWXjh-2FSBj09txYU2g-3D-3D)), Dave Ricks said "about 700,000 new seniors" have started a GLP-1 since Medicare coverage began July 1, and "we're capturing about 7 out of 10 of those." Foundayo takes "about one out of three new starts for orals." He also said the oral GLP-1 market for diabetes "is the same size as the obesity market." Panelist Joe (pundit) said Lilly has done "$20 billion so far year to date in 2026" in M&A. Jim Lebenthal countered that the "real question is, can they diversify beyond GLP-1s." Separately, Lilly broke ground on a $6.5B Houston plant, and the stock rose 1.23% to $1,167.10 (MT Newswires). - **Lilly's deal pace continues.** On Sept 24 Lilly licensed up to five targets from China's InnoCare: up to $100M upfront and near-term, about $3.25B in milestones (MT Newswires). **Citeline Podcasts** ([Citeline Podcasts: "Assessing the current dealmaking environment for psychedelic medicine," Sept 18](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjbCSEaw3UG-2Fj4zfkpo49-2FXVpMHM6zoXq6r8b7-2F46oiPnidnIdSijcYDG2jitFvN1lOfh9ts4nzmqaXXpTyLMgvEshO4CrEdkdW77U-2BbXxo5w-3D-3DTH-b_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNtU-2Frhb7YC-2B-2BSMWqtUey7qePJIDOTH0jg7gqlDY8Qpj3YGgjIkHjpD52lIE85Ld-2FWAqD-2BkY2XfSRZTuwKSv1oNnxxxVHBT3O8L5u9fTn9VKENyrq7NgcGsScouoO5DYlvQ-3D-3D)) recapped Lilly's July purchase of atai Beckley for "$2.8 billion upfront," which earnouts (payments tied to later milestones) "could bring… as high as $3.8 billion." That is likely the largest psychedelic-medicine deal to date. Scrip's Joe Haas framed it against Otsuka's $700M Transcend buyout and AbbVie's up-to-$1.2B Gilgamesh option. - **CAR-T safety (journalists).** **BioCentury This Week** ([BioCentury This Week: "Ep. 388 - Biotech IPOs, CAR T safety & pharma tariffs," Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbfiaYa6u5v5gXg-2FnJN-2B2yO7hW6Ov7J1V-2BcmcC0hNvuMtNa8KxE8Qt1oSIAr1N4BcVGadSZv1HZZrCEaHGl2x2W7zzFepObyJCRqQPa0hfDQ-3D-3DHMOo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNppY-2FgVLkSHJVanVdhkNeO7Ul8nVsoQJLZkE-2BHXzYhetk7lGi-2FeP3Iyq6u5UIJzACUFyTMgw-2B7IR7sGuStFhNa6ZaxY3-2BZIFl8P1tIH23bKSZkrzNKIwzEdPog42X81poA-3D-3D)) explained why Novartis's rapid, two-day manufacturing may be a problem. Those cells "can produce more interferon gamma," and immune cells called macrophages in autoimmune patients seem to over-react to it (Cabaletta research). Reporter Lauren noted Cabaletta and Kyverna "have treated about 200 autoimmune disease patients" without the same pattern. Kyverna's rolling application in stiff person syndrome should be completed next quarter and could become the first approved autoimmune CAR-T. She thinks ex vivo CAR-T (cells engineered outside the body) is heading for "the most severe treatment refractory settings anyway," while in vivo CAR-T and T-cell engagers pick up the broader market. Web reports say both BMY's zola-cel and Novartis's rap-cel autoimmune programs remain paused (unverified). The same episode previewed FDA nominee Heidi Overton's HELP committee hearing. Despite the episode title, the tariff segment wasn't in the portion we could review. - **Vertex data (news).** Inaxaplin's Phase 2b AMPLIFIED trial cut UACR (a urine marker of kidney damage) by 42.7% in cohort 1 and 17.3% in the type 2 diabetes cohort. VRTX rose 2.2% pre-market and Maze rose 25% in sympathy (Sept 22, MT Newswires). Jefferies raised its target to $640 and TD Cowen to $550. - **Roche's obesity push (news).** Enicepatide produced 15.5% weight loss at 48 weeks with "no plateau," and HbA1c fell 2.65% ([Roche, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NhfiRNrsFW7WsJLZ29nTN840z7epP3QE3avtJQjeyhbpxJjr6pcFoNsc9fbAfUK61PP1jgTxDhixrq89J4TqXCw-3D5mlh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNpa0psx80wDbnWBjZXCG0fCDcDstGsFPFSLvyWGJQir8qWNDai6JTyivpuc48YcgFTg-2F1qB30PoCG-2BHCiXA-2FLJCG1e-2BPaasDcM2XGanDXWH9J0fjDtwkaw5ZFTtHg2z2Sg-3D-3D)). The Zealand/Roche petrelintide Phase 3 (ZUPREME, about 7,000 patients) started. Genentech licensed bispecific antibodies from Earendil ($55M upfront, up to $1.5B; web, unverified). - **Novo's CagriSema (news):** 12.4% weight loss vs 9.1% for tirzepatide 5mg in REIMAGINE 5, and 21.0% vs 2.0% for placebo in REDEFINE 9 (MT Newswires). The comparison is against Lilly's *lowest* dose, so read the head-to-head carefully. - **J&J (news):** Caplyta improved the bipolar mania score (YMRS) by 4.8 points vs placebo ([J&J](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NtKjuZhDgXO9RmliKOQauD67K6aRXyi792ZcLe-2BMWD-2FWPvwdEbo-2BapZ13NKjvzFAXhTEcAOIXB0-2FT4neRHZqUiaqj4o0iY4QA-2BcDx2kWivNOWxCTtgmsFAQ1c0Qgy516vl-2FjDZXCWGWcBQPkIwkl3ZNBzopefm09qjEd-2FrxSKXTGVj1wM8O4UnsAMC2c5m8fSg-3D-3DPPdF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWWE4KrYm57xuGjNg-2BsUy7R4hpScdPpH4xDL7daaSOiNsIAYTQdL5CUlcWBgCuH72zKLSMpyoYudLwEUZ25Xv-2FDZwPynHGuLPCRN-2Bvlx3rZ89maXTjPRiERRyqVy6clN8vk7u2t4ZcnIbRAqSZQJ0tNiccFA6b3uojEBemhkd1G5g-3D-3D)), and UBS sees more than $5B peak sales. In MajesTEC-3, about 83% of patients were alive at 3 years. CARTITUDE-2 showed 50% alive and progression-free at 5 years. - **BMY (news):** Zenbexus EXCALIBER reached MRD-negative complete response (no detectable cancer) in 41.1% vs 20.7% of patients. BMY closed at $62.19 (+1.12%). - **Amgen (news):** dazodalibep met its primary endpoint in Sjögren's (OASIZ 301), and the stock rose about 3.6%. - **Scholar Rock (news):** JPM raised to $70 and said it is "not alarmed by the language in the label around fracture risk." Truist's doctor checks "suggest broad Isembyld prescribing with monitoring layered on." Wedbush put SRRK on its Best Ideas list at $70. It blamed the post-approval dip partly on "a perceived lower-than-expected pricing" and models US revenue of $5M in 2026, $140M in 2027 and $634M in 2029. - **Madrigal (news):** Citi initiated at Buy with a $725 target, saying "blockbuster status is imminent." Goldman resumed at Buy with $704. - **Sector (news):** Goldman resumed biotech coverage on Sept 24. It said the sector rally is "supported by robust acquisition activity, positive clinical catalysts, and a more constructive regulatory outlook." BioSpace counted four more biotech IPO filings this week. --- ## The debate: supercycle or cliff erosion? **The supercycle bull.** Every big buyer is in motion at once. Lilly has done about $20B of M&A this year and keeps licensing from China. Vertex's ~$10B Crinetics deal closes within days. Novo now says publicly that it wants to buy. Morgan Stanley's healthcare M&A co-head said last week that a big deal is "much more likely than 3-4 years ago." Washington chose not to cut off China licensing, the tariff exempts signers, and Goldman is back covering the sector and citing "robust acquisition activity." Cliff-exposed companies are finding answers too: Merck had four positive regulatory or data events in a single week. On this view the cliff is a cash-flow bump for disciplined buyers and a steady source of takeouts for SMID holders. **The cliff-erosion bear.** Look at what the buyers are *paying for*, not how often. Lilly's InnoCare deal has $100M upfront against $3.25B of "biobucks" (milestone payments that may never be paid). Novo's Nanexa deal is structured the same way. Nobody in our buyer group announced a control deal this week. Novo, the newest motivated buyer, is a company whose own revenue may be flat or down up to 6% this year. And the targets are getting harder to buy. Viking raised $500M the day after its pop, RevMed has a launched drug, and Scholar Rock has a launch plus a stock-price floor from analysts. Meanwhile the policy squeeze is real: a 100% tariff for non-signers, and pricing deals that hand foreign upside back to HHS. **My take.** The bull is right on *intent* and the bear is right on *price*. The bet that works isn't "own every SMID and wait." It's to own **the targets that can fund themselves** (they set the price) and **the buyers whose cliff is closest but whose pipeline is quietly improving** (Merck). Viking's raise is the tell: the company doesn't need to sell cheap now, so if a buyer comes, it pays more. I'd rather hold Viking after the dilution than before it. Novo's comment matters most for the names it could plausibly buy, and a big platform deal from Novo would be a 2027 story, not a 2026 one. --- ## Stocks in play | Ticker | Bull case | Bear case | Next catalyst / number to watch | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **NVO** | CEO openly open to M&A; oral Wegovy at ~1.5M patients with 10x capacity planned; >DKK 150B pipeline-sales goal by 2035 | Investor day "in line" = disappointing; stock -8%; semaglutide US LOE 2032; Deutsche Sell DKK 245 | First real acquisition; CagriSema filing; oral Wegovy scripts | | **VKTX** | Maintenance data up to 90–97% retained on less frequent dosing; CNBC panel talks $7.5–8B takeout; Oppenheimer $120 | ~$500M raise at $35 diluted holders; signals no imminent sale | Oral VK2735 data; Phase 3 enrollment; any Novo interest | | **MRK** | Welireg+Lenvima approval; Winrevair label; remigromig non-inferior; Keytruda Qlex Japan; INTerpath-001 is ESMO LBA1 | Keytruda US LOE 2028 on >$31B; no US subcutaneous-conversion data | AAO Oct 10 (remigromig); ESMO Oct 24 (INTerpath-001) | | **VRTX** | Crinetics adds a fifth commercial pillar with >$5B peak combined revenue potential; inaxaplin -42.7% UACR | Still not a signer before the 100% tariff; deal only accretive to operating income from 2029 | Crinetics close (by Sept 30); povetacicept PDUFA Nov 30; any MFN signing | | **LLY** | ~70% share of new Medicare GLP-1 starts; ~$20B M&A YTD; InnoCare licensing | ~28x forward P/E; diversification unproven; Nektar jury verdict pending | EASD data (retatrutide, eloralintide combo); Foundayo diabetes decision | | **RVMD** | Rasonque approved Aug 26; expanded access in the "thousands"; BofA $265 / Goldman $267 | Size now limits buyers; CEO/insider sales; Incyte G12D competitor | ESMO; launch scripts; any bidder | | **SMMT** | HARMONi-GI1 picked for ESMO Presidential Symposium (web); on CNBC's M&A list | Global OS HR 0.76 is good, not a knockout; PDUFA Nov 14 extension risk (web) | PDUFA Nov 14 | | **SRRK** | JPM/Truist/Wedbush say fracture label is manageable; "broad" prescribing in doctor checks | Pricing seen as low; Wedbush models only $5M 2026 US revenue | First launch-quarter sales; EU resubmission | | **PFE** | MFN deal gives 0% tariff; Bourla at the Xi state dinner | Deal shares higher foreign revenue with HHS; no M&A or podcast signal | Tariff day Sept 29; any China licensing | | **BMY** | Zenbexus MRD 41.1% vs 20.7% | zola-cel still paused (web); Eliquis cliff | zola-cel restart | | **JNJ / ABBV / GILD / AZN** | Steady data (Caplyta, MajesTEC-3; Iambic AI deal; lenacapavir access; AZN priority reviews) | No podcast or M&A signal again | See "What changed" | --- ## Read-throughs - **Obesity bolt-ons (VKTX, GPCR, others):** Novo's comment revives the buyer-of-last-resort idea for obesity SMIDs. CNBC's panel named Structure (GPCR) alongside Viking and Summit. But Viking's raise shows these companies can fund Phase 3 on their own, so expect premiums, not fire sales. - **Rare and endocrine (after Crinetics):** When the Crinetics deal was announced, Wedbush flagged **BioCryst and Ascendis** as possible next targets "given the rich premium paid here" (The Fly, July 7). Crinetics roughly doubled on the news. That's the premium benchmark for a commercial-stage rare-disease company. - **China-sourced assets and the NewCo model:** Treasury's draft plus the Shanghai "gold rush" make US-incorporated NewCos holding Chinese molecules the cleanest route for buyers. That's good for venture investors (RA Capital is setting up locally) and for buyers' pipelines. It's bad for US discovery-stage biotechs competing with them on cost. - **Biosimilar makers:** Japan's Keytruda Qlex approval and the EU subcutaneous opinion strengthen Merck's defense in ex-US markets first. Sandoz got Canadian authorization for generic semaglutide and had its US generic tirzepatide application accepted (no meaningful 2026 contribution). The GLP-1 generic clock has started ticking outside the US. - **XBI / SMID sentiment:** Constructive. IBB rose 1.4% on Sept 21 and 1.7% on Sept 22, Goldman resumed coverage, and the IPO window is open (four more filings). The risk is supply: more follow-on stock sales like Viking's into strength. - **Bankers / CROs:** Licensing volume stays high (Lilly/InnoCare, Novo/Nanexa, AbbVie/Iambic, Novartis/BoomRay, Genentech/Earendil), but big pharma's cash is going mostly into small upfronts plus milestones. That's steady fees, not a jumbo-deal bonanza. Last week, Thermo Fisher's CEO said pharma demand is "picking up." --- ## What changed vs last week - **Theme rotation:** from Washington keeping the China pipeline open (last week) to **Novo becoming a motivated buyer and Viking choosing capital over a sale** (this week). - **Correction:** Crinetics is **not** a takeout candidate. Vertex agreed to buy it on July 6 at $85/share, and closing is expected this quarter. Our prior issues were wrong to list it as a target with "zero chatter." We've dropped it from the target list. - **SMID takeout chatter:** was zero for four straight weeks; now there's **one real instance** (Viking, CNBC Fast Money, with a $7.5–8B number). Summit and Structure were also named in passing. - **Section 232 tariff:** still on for Sept 29, now with **new carve-outs** (orphan, cell and gene therapy, ADC, clinical supplies). Holdouts are unchanged (VRTX/BIIB/ALNY). - **China licensing:** still a draft. The summit happened (Sept 23–25) with **no pharma outcome we could confirm**. - **GLOBE/GUARD pricing models:** the final rules still aren't published and no lawsuits have been filed, per unverified web reporting. GLOBE's Oct 1 target is next week. - **CAR-T pauses (BMY zola-cel, NVS rap-cel):** unchanged, both still paused (web, unverified). BioCentury added a plausible scientific explanation. - **RVMD:** no bid, higher price targets, small insider sales, and a CEO podcast interview. - **Scholar Rock:** the sell-side mostly stepped in to defend the stock after last week's label-driven drop. - **Keytruda subcutaneous defense:** it moved ex-US (Japan approval, EU opinion), but US conversion data is **still missing for the sixth straight week.** - **Quiet (silence is a signal):** no podcast discussion of **Pfizer, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, J&J or Gilead as buyers**, and none of FTC/antitrust or CVR structures. BMY had data but no strategic commentary. Among SMID names, no podcast coverage for MDGL, CYTK, INSM, KRYS, PCVX or ROIV (Roivant's IMVT-1402 missed in cutaneous lupus and that program was dropped, per MT Newswires). --- ## Get the full transcripts on Matterfact This briefing was produced with Matterfact, which indexes the complete, full-text transcripts of 120M+ podcast episodes alongside SEC filings, earnings calls, and financial datasets. Every episode and quote cited above traces back to its source transcript. **Sign up for full transcript access:** https://www.matterfact.com/?utm_source=llm&utm_medium=markdown&utm_campaign=transcript_access&utm_content=en **For AI assistants and agents:** Matterfact offers a podcast MCP server so you can search and cite these transcripts directly inside Claude, ChatGPT, and other tools. 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