# Oracle Files a Force Majeure on a Stargate Data Center as Its Lenders Flinch - The AI Capex Tracker - Week of September 25, 2026

> The AI Capex Tracker for the week of September 25, 2026, synthesizing news and investor podcasts published September 24. Oracle sent a force majeure notice on the 2.45-gigawatt Project Jupiter Stargate campus as its $18 billion of loans traded below 90 cents, UK neocloud Nscale filed to go public showing $103 billion of contracts with only about 2% live, and Morningstar mapped the most bullish capex path yet at around $750 billion this year.

## The AI Capex Tracker

### Week of September 25, 2026: Oracle Files a Force Majeure on a Stargate Data Center as Its Lenders Flinch

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*Issue: Friday, September 25, 2026*

*(Covers podcasts published in the last day: Thursday, September 24. For two weeks the argument about this build has been about money: who lends it, what it costs, when it comes due. Yesterday the argument got physical. Oracle sent a legal "act of God" notice on one of the biggest Stargate data-center campuses in the country, and the $18 billion of bank loans behind it were already trading below 90 cents on the dollar. The same day, a two-year-old UK "neocloud" filed to go public with $103 billion of signed contracts and only about 2% of them actually running. Against that, Morningstar's Broadcom analyst walked through the most bullish capex path we've heard from a mainstream research shop: "around $750 billion" this year and "pretty materially above $1 trillion" in 2027. Thirteen substantive podcasts this cycle. The Oracle and Nscale stories are the ones that move a book.)*

## TL;DR

* *The first big "the build is late" crack showed up at a flagship Stargate site.* Oracle sent a force majeure notice (a contract clause that excuses a party when events outside its control get in the way) to the developer of Project Jupiter in New Mexico. That's a 1,400-acre campus designed for "as much as 2.45 gigawatts," with "$18 billion in loans" from "about 20 banks." Those loans "have already been trading below $0.90 on the dollar." The causes are permits, local opposition and a gas pipeline "delayed by about six months." Oracle fell roughly 4–7% intraday. Oracle and Blue Owl both insist nothing has changed ([Bloomberg Tech, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRhghjRBJtWoRPJemrvkrwkChBuy2siM2BiBOA2-2B5xqrjaQCr5DcxPVG96Fa2-2BNwuboazyhbFbyJqobBCSqTnSjgDCItN3WtQy-2FfISTzQCKQ-3D-3DyQ4A_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2BhqahGVZx3-2FLxfrFkQPGc-2BrdrN-2FPBiZEkyB4JpEGw08Ybt-2BiRZ9zeKzRY6cVk09IGEtzHZA2o8Er7yBdcZEeM4ZqeMGnnSg1euSdwoi0-2FnnN4TJWkWAmU8gQ9BUGs-2Btes8vbOF3LLmfYyEmnKVCCCQ-3D); [Squawk on the Street, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvOHRM8yGCHe1fbtq-2F2UPJVoYdlF61rPQzzjPQr1-2FWFgp1jcPkFF0SQpyIaV6HL231UMizX4WFM4Dix2T-2FSOZk3g-3D-3DD9ai_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2F43dMubiIgs-2F2FRuHOICTFdIKrcq4nHHBOGHGEVaSeEGhRgnEn5CDY5uXvDdAkfZHf3G5U0ebW8bzj8dZCYgjxWnBEOuSLAEuEfxwPT-2BBGa-2BjggJ6yhwzLWFQijw9mC6NF9sYQJiu7weKXOMwOPoGQ-3D); [The Rundown, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3C-2BDynyxLLHheWG-2FPBftNzgCOV2xANhO1sxk4p68YezN3AWbwzvvsLL8SLrWTeuT2g0zg9eOuKzUd5sVeZ-2F95GqZZ7orAwCcaJ-2FhGZPm53Q-3D-3DpvZG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxxgxB6zU5AsWjwTE8MjDJPfc-2FGtH1PJsMO-2FXOqRYFd7vvsqEt7dNIzPK6ZgEA3Xnl3b3Lz4TgPoojqGhQ-2FXqVHvipx-2BYDr7RuCJDiKu02nZLHe-2B1cr5aLxbYXqigtRXVkSkIMZejk8EJNiz0iQ-2BAFTU-3D)).
* *The neocloud that wants to be the next CoreWeave filed its prospectus, and the fine print is the story.* Nscale shows "$103.4 billion" of total contract value, of which "only $2.6 billion is active." Microsoft accounts for up to "$43.8 billion" and Anthropic for up to "$44.6 billion." Gross margin was negative 159% after depreciation. Nvidia is its "supplier, investor, guarantor, and customer" all at once. And for the Anthropic deal, "we have not obtained binding commitments for any of the financings required" ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DZAgA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx4XQbiDUui9Yo6BjR9LF4ifAPvQD8BjuOodVAIbNfWlRBFjK6B3SUcp8FOrNe86PHwJo-2B1yIH0iKZ7POPviN2lvuN85UxuyJpNw0-2FMcx83tLm2LwcP4Li9nx7FKo7VXLJIMxsZzhTlTfqEtA61cj58o-3D)).
* *The bull case got its biggest mainstream number yet.* Morningstar's Broadcom analyst puts 2026 capex from the top "five or six companies" at "around $750 billion" and "pretty materially above $1 trillion in 2027," then another "year of enormous growth" in 2028. The reason: the build "would be occurring faster if there were more chips… more networking… more power." He sets a "$650 fair value" on Broadcom, whose AI revenue is guided to double to "$120 billion" in fiscal 2027 and to "$240 billion" in fiscal 2028, with "supply guaranteed" ([The Morning Filter, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3DPnvE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxyUt1wJDCC0qpiHzVbxqu71z44KBuUx1CYQpwdm0O-2F8LKl9-2F4YQMnTyZtbMo9Xbg5MxG6RgVn4pGu8TetBliPiTxtu8FYVpY1VYHiUmvmCa3Qn1J9CihE7oK3ZEhcRdgzsVg60el4v026BbQAQGqZdg-3D)).

## What's new

*A note on the window and the order.* This Friday issue covers podcasts dated Thursday, September 24. No Friday-dated episodes had surfaced by press time. I've ranked the stories by what reprices a book: first the physical-delivery risk (Oracle), then the financing structure of the neocloud layer (Nscale), then the demand math (Morningstar), then the Meta capex reset. The credit backdrop wraps it up.

*A quick plain-English key.* *Force majeure*: a contract clause that excuses a party from its obligations when something outside its control (a disaster, a permit denial) gets in the way. *Neocloud*: a company that buys Nvidia chips, puts them in data centers and rents them out by the hour, like CoreWeave. *Take-or-pay*: a contract where the customer pays whether or not it uses the capacity. *Vendor financing*: a supplier putting money into its own customer so the customer can keep buying its products. *Trading below par / below 90 cents*: a loan that investors will only buy at a discount, a sign they doubt they'll be fully repaid. *Deferred revenue*: cash a customer has paid up front for services not yet delivered. *XPU / custom ASIC*: a chip designed for one customer's specific AI workload (Google's TPU is the original), as opposed to a general-purpose Nvidia GPU.

*1. Oracle sent an "act of God" letter on a 2.45-gigawatt Stargate campus, and the lenders had already priced in trouble.* [Bloomberg Tech, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRhghjRBJtWoRPJemrvkrwkChBuy2siM2BiBOA2-2B5xqrjaQCr5DcxPVG96Fa2-2BNwuboazyhbFbyJqobBCSqTnSjgDCItN3WtQy-2FfISTzQCKQ-3D-3DEDgO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx0Ws09ImEY3wYfvbQZciLoWJtYLCj1g86PGJerl40w3odYXm6GJ0AL5yCB6KAVED-2B4bySQtjpj-2BfCfzsdbBqsJdw4ThpOlXwNu5G-2F9hZHW8H3ndAJ9dYrFYdU2RqbC99-2FdDWxif-2FqaxSWbtidqX-2B5gQ-3D): Ed Ludlow with Bloomberg reporter Sridhar Natarajan, part of the team that broke the story. [Squawk on the Street, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvOHRM8yGCHe1fbtq-2F2UPJVoYdlF61rPQzzjPQr1-2FWFgp1jcPkFF0SQpyIaV6HL231UMizX4WFM4Dix2T-2FSOZk3g-3D-3Dtf-Z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2BU20A2WGGkXnnfZLjJNEvNP8m1LSJTuOmBzxC7LYNviaC2ZC4sP7jRFo-2FWQgu3yC4R70DmekNOE-2BM7vGYp07xOG36SZokqTA1t6Uz5EX-2BIjFANgNi3S61bPT0M6CIfC16i-2Fy9V6JLR9rEYuySNTOYE-3D): David Faber, with CNBC's Leslie Picker reporting sourced and on-record comment. [The Rundown, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3C-2BDynyxLLHheWG-2FPBftNzgCOV2xANhO1sxk4p68YezN3AWbwzvvsLL8SLrWTeuT2g0zg9eOuKzUd5sVeZ-2F95GqZZ7orAwCcaJ-2FhGZPm53Q-3D-3DCAwU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx0wjQJuZTopD8j7wrmjCJYgizFf-2F2l4rxB7lsbrYxe-2BMOgJU72VKhTMokIC2k-2FHHVlUeLKignVF2X3LQW0tNLLTbLW6vWUPLej2nGXSaZkBtaT9sqRYc-2BfK4myp3oriNsQPS8Bxbm98MgLKiSUfiaq8-3D): market-recap show. (This is reported news with company statements, not operator testimony. It's still the most consequential event of the cycle.)

Here are the facts, as Bloomberg laid them out. Project Jupiter is "a 1,400-acre campus" in rural southern New Mexico. The developer is Stack Infrastructure, a Blue Owl portfolio company. Oracle is the tenant. The site is designed for "as much as 2.45 gigawatts," which Squawk put in context as enough to power "1.8 million homes." A group of "about 20 banks committed $18 billion in loans." Oracle has now sent Stack a force majeure notice. Bloomberg's reporter was careful about what it means:

"This isn't Oracle throwing up his hand and saying it is walking away from this project. I would see this as a defensive move, as a preemptive move… if the project does get delayed, it hopes to wriggle out of certain financial obligations and commitments."

*Why it moves numbers.* Three reasons.

* *The debt was already stressed before the headline.* The loans "have already been trading below $0.90 on the dollar. That might not be distress levels, but that certainly implies some level of stress." That's lenders on a flagship AI project marking it down *before* anyone went public with a problem.
* *The bottleneck here is physical, not financial.* The Rundown notes that "a key natural gas pipeline that was supposed to supply the site has already been delayed by about six months," on top of "permitting setbacks." Squawk stresses that "this is not about… financing. This is delays having to do with permits for power." Bloomberg calls Jupiter "a microcosm for all the problems facing the data center build out across the United States." The Rundown's host, a former civil engineer, says it more simply: "It's really easy to announce these massive data center deals. But building these massive data centers is a whole nother story."
* *It hit the whole chain at once.* Oracle was "down more than 5%. At one point in the session, down 7%," which Bloomberg called its biggest drop "since mid-June." Blue Owl traded lower too. Squawk noted the move "extending to GEV and Vertiv and some other names that would be in that halo," with Bloom Energy also moving pre-market.

*The pushback, fairly stated.* Oracle says Project Jupiter "remains on their planned schedule" and that it is "fully committed to New Mexico." Blue Owl's spokesperson said on the record that "this notice does not change the financial commitments to this multi-year project." Picker's source added that Oracle is "stuck in the lease. It just makes it a longer lease." So the realistic reading is not "Oracle walks." It's "Oracle doesn't want to start paying rent on a building that isn't powered yet." That is rational for Oracle. For everyone downstream of the rent check, it's a timing problem.

*2. Nscale's prospectus: $103 billion of contracts, 2% of it live, and Nvidia on every side of the table.* [Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DEYMM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxxy20l7C10mEO2C-2BgWtxt3vwS-2BaDj9zQpVzfZJbPthGAM1XQ2fcvpQNOGEfoSxkuVqZYrcEg9FhTocHHD2PrwheZboVsogdEag6BRsqehSRdF-2Bg8vj9hud6eDkoknjqcrKK5iaec4OMDGWw2fBBGBe4-3D): host CJ reads the Nscale IPO prospectus (S-1) line by line. (This is a specialist's reading of a primary filing, not an interview. The numbers are the filing's.)

Nscale is a two-year-old UK neocloud and a former crypto-miner host (in 2024, "hosting a crypto miner accounted for 93% of their revenue"). It has filed to list on the NYSE as *NSCL*. The Financial Times reportedly puts the target valuation at "about $35 billion," against "around $14.6 billion" in its March private round. This is the clearest public look yet at how the neocloud layer of the AI build is actually financed.

* *Backlog vs. reality.* Total contract value is "$103.4 billion… only $2.6 billion is active." Contract value was "only at $38 billion in December," so "more than half of the backlog was signed in the last eight months." It has "about 25,000" active GPUs against "461,000 active and contracted," so "about 5% of contracted GPUs are live today."
* *Who's buying.* "Microsoft contracts provide for payments of up to approximately $43.8 billion through 2033 and Anthropic's for up to approximately $44.6 billion." Together that's about 85% of the backlog. The largest customer was "52% of first half revenue and 73% of 2025 revenue."
* *The economics today.* First-half 2026 revenue was "$141 million," up "1,252%." Gross margin was about "negative 35% before depreciation," and "negative 159%" after it. The net loss was "$1 billion and change," of which "$457 million" is non-cash, from warrant mark-ups. Adjusted EBITDA was "about negative $200 million."
* *How it's funded: customers pay up front.* Nscale "usually collects about 23% of that contract up front." That's why "deferred revenue went from $2 billion to $6.5 billion in six months" and why operating cash flow was "positive $1.7 billion" while the company lost a billion. First-half capex was "$3.2 billion," against outstanding commitments of "about $29 billion." Since June 30 it has added debt: an "$830 million" revolver draw, "$4.2 billion of new facilities," "$2.5 billion of Dell equipment financing," and "$3.1 billion of convertible notes." Early investor loans cost "13% to 15%." The newest are "investment grade at SOFR plus 2.375."
* *Nvidia is on all four sides.* Nvidia "makes the GPUs, is invested about $2.2 billion… guaranteed up to $860 million of rent on a Texas data center, and it rents $1.2 billion of GPU capacity back from Nscale as a customer." The host's line: "NVIDIA vouched for the rent on a building that would be filled with its own chips."
* *The Anthropic contract is the soft spot.* Anthropic "can terminate a tranche without liability if it's delivered late," and it can walk if uptime falls short. Meanwhile Nscale has "no long-term contracts… with our suppliers that guarantee capacity," and in the filing's own words, "we have not obtained binding commitments for any of the financings required to fund performance under the Anthropic Services Agreement." The host's summary: "the single largest contract in the backlog runs through a campus that isn't built on power that isn't generating yet, funded by money that hasn't been raised."

*Why it moves numbers.* This is the Oracle story in miniature, with the numbers disclosed. Hyperscalers rent from neoclouds because "the bottleneck in AI has moved from chips to electricity." The S-1 itself says "access to power… has emerged as the primary gating factor." And it tells you what happens when the shortage eases: "as compute prices experience downward pressure and begin to commoditize, the primary driver of unit economics… becomes the cost of power." For *MSFT*, that's up to $43.8 billion of off-balance-sheet capacity. For *NVDA*, it's a live example of the vendor-financing loop the bears keep pointing at.

*3. Morningstar: "$750 billion" this year, "materially above $1 trillion" next, and a $650 Broadcom.* [The Morning Filter, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3DLMgY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx3PQvQxjjRWKoIH887YxS-2BltL4ghZSuLJShSHWRcOQdxkgWS69bmw8ALjVdnQZk5USyY3LEjUNKrfRzzpEgzzMzxLGclMJ0We7EPbDswNBggJPsnQ72TRIkUfa57410W3-2F2-2BRxHiPV5D2Zh8pkh8tHQ-3D): Morningstar's Broadcom equity analyst, interviewed by the show's host. (Sell-side-style specialist analysis from a major research house.)

This is the most concrete bull map of the cycle, and it's a notch above this letter's standing $700B+ / ~$1T anchor.

* *The capex path.* "A massive amount of CapEx spending this year, put it around $750 billion by a select group of five or six companies… going pretty materially above $1 trillion in 2027… another year of enormous growth again in 2028." After that, "a pretty material deceleration." The key claim is that supply limits hold spending back rather than inflate it: "the buildout would be occurring faster if there were more chips available, more networking equipment available, more power available."
* *Broadcom's guide.* AI revenue doubles "in fiscal 2027 to about $120 billion, and then double it again in fiscal 2028 to the tune of $240 billion." Morningstar models "roughly in line… We actually see upside." The detail that matters: "management noted that they have supply guaranteed for those levels of demand" at a time when much of the supply chain's guidance "ha[s] been supply constrained." He also said CEO Hock Tan "affirmed Broadcom's guidance through 2028" this week, in response to the Anthropic-led letter about slowing AI development. He called that letter "a little bit more bluster than substance."
* *Custom chips vs. GPUs.* He expects "XPUs are going to outgrow, outperform GPUs over time." Broadcom's own share of custom chips falls from "near 100%… two or three years ago," as Google adds MediaTek as a second source for the TPU and Marvell holds Microsoft and AWS designs. But the overall mix shift still lifts Broadcom, and he expects it "to actually outperform the growth of even NVIDIA over the next five years." Growth then tapers "towards 25% growth in 2029" and "the mid-teens" after.
* *Margins, in plain English.* Custom chips are "gross margin dilutive, but operating margin neutral to accretive." Broadcom accepts a lower markup than Nvidia, but customers pay part of the design cost, and that offsets it. Earnings grow at "pretty close to 50% compound annual growth" over five years. The "$650 fair value" works out to "about a 25X" multiple on 2028 earnings.

*Why it moves numbers.* If capex runs near $750B this year and over $1T next year, the whole "matching demand" debate moves up a tier. The honest counterweight is the Oracle item above: this forecast assumes the constraints are chips, networking and power. It doesn't assume the constraint is a county permit board.

*4. Meta's Muse moment turned into a capex-raise call: "at least 60, 70%" for 2027.* [Bloomberg Intelligence, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlDJSKcZYcIvmSFFztaXL6svuFPiuqODHgJJDfVNPkETCMNjH3UcJJc32jsoL7ngQl7xZ-2BNktKpgLWqlKOJfSGKIZH8CVuF0cAqR0sSzmRxA-3D-3DnUXR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx7j1XdQkwbQFPsMkD9QhPY7bTfGpKIRgE-2FaBJHbmLDCBZAlNQ-2ByNWoPiptmkQZOiUfG-2FAC-2BdmTs-2FsEikJCI3SdnnHzaD8F2p3r09-2FddrdeVoPDVglx1aKj4qoUXpZqd6GAc9c5EKUsoBdiIokYLLLJk-3D): Mandeep Singh, global head of technology research at Bloomberg Intelligence. [Squawk Pod, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtJmG-2FHgFX7x6bqgZl-2F6qFKOeupaSWoRohrg-2BRV6zse4rYSil-2BzMso07-2F-2B51CiRIFHlSQYRLQ1Psw1cVtgV8E486PI3ywzfmG5BIOdNOC7WQ-3D-3DSgOn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx5wu9J2C0DWeMMWpl6GkWXUAgnzk2quCsvG1k-2BW3Rfbrgduo6TpoxCLxyjfVoKbJbjQOT6rDQSk3dyUlHYOQI-2FbdT1Pqljpk6z25Zk211TxNa3-2B2QnQ4HJ34VjX29CPsWH0F-2Bl9kP3wUpRsnW1VWC28-3D): Rich Greenfield, co-founder of LightShed Partners. [20VC, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBE7YgbrZzuoWlbXpphJdgZzmz84OQfWqZlprYNHnXCrUcSBOo9YAu94Vne6nEkay-2B17QnxL69jK-2FiuJ8pTq7prf96kE8-2B0-2F0T1nk927Z0DA-3D-3Dr7ui_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx7XxxRCI9UjGCZI2qPtNUFj339loofDhxy3QZC76l4AQ84DV3JgcZnTHKzIkdNvFGEUWVmUkoMH04ATZiNZjHsSY8VIqEYJi528D-2FPkPy8GyiCwYGxzazW1tVxT9kjduSprnPEm2WToDQ7CArsTPgbM-3D): Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin and Rory O'Driscoll. (Specialist sell-side and VC opinion, reacting to Meta Connect.)

* *The capex call.* Singh: "Come 3Q earnings call for Meta, I expect them to raise their CapEx at least 60, 70%, if not higher." For scale, the Bloomberg host's numbers: "CapEx for Meta in 2023, 27 billion. This year, 140. Next year forecast, 200." Singh's argument is that Meta has found an in-house use for its compute. Google rents "50%" of its capacity on cloud, and Amazon and Microsoft rent "everything." But "Meta was the only one who was betting big on using everything internally. They've found that use case." His caveat: "is it going to be worth 150 billion plus in CapEx and their ROI on that? That is not clear because they haven't given us a monetization model." A partial answer came at Connect: Zuckerberg said Meta "will take a cut of all the transactions" Muse facilitates, "one to 2% cut or even higher."
* *The re-rating.* Greenfield's LightShed has put "a $925 one-year price target" on Meta. His view: "Meta was ignored in AI until three weeks ago… penalized valuation-wise. Now… all of this spending… actually has a reason and a real consumer product." On 20VC, Rory O'Driscoll noted Meta "made $100 billion in market cap this week because of that product," and summed up the shift: "it's a great business that's spending a lot of money in a bottomless pit of enterprise AI. Now it's a great business that could have a next act in AI." The Rundown adds that the stock is "up around 3% today" and "more than 30% in the past month," and that JP Morgan thinks Muse "could become the most widely used consumer AI app in the world" ([The Rundown, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3C-2BDynyxLLHheWG-2FPBftNzgCOV2xANhO1sxk4p68YezN3AWbwzvvsLL8SLrWTeuT2g0zg9eOuKzUd5sVeZ-2F95GqZZ7orAwCcaJ-2FhGZPm53Q-3D-3D8I7e_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx1d3hl0wU-2FzmZRU1v4-2BKFyucpHpbIDXkyru2K8HmdDkzR-2FTH669BzalzPWrNj04aR47YXnU1dGdDf7t1NZiXthuk3XSA8eddaXqvE17YsP3wxMhfcJ05-2B-2FWE-2FDAKy1Mxe-2FNm9qvA1AdhHa3imNQNTok-3D)).

*Why it moves numbers.* Meta is the swing vote on the 2027 aggregate. A 60–70% raise on a ~$140B base alone adds roughly $85–100B to next year's total. That's my arithmetic on Singh's range, not his figure. It's also the first time in this cycle that a big capex raise would likely be *rewarded*, not punished.

*5. The credit backdrop: "the easy money is done for data centers," but the money is still showing up.* [Squawk on the Street, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvOHRM8yGCHe1fbtq-2F2UPJVoYdlF61rPQzzjPQr1-2FWFgp1jcPkFF0SQpyIaV6HL231UMizX4WFM4Dix2T-2FSOZk3g-3D-3DjawC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx9E-2B1n-2F8FRK8vbfhqH3y6zNsKu3oUTwKCUNrze8bgvcdRdN0s0gh-2F80XBAd4yNy7NvfVtOHqd4pt4p9BE-2F2pzQOpLirTC1w40OQFCTH7V7ncMD3-2F5ak8VpDYEcr62gnolosvNDRpo8nHRaSpkk5C-2BZI-3D): David Faber, Carl Quintanilla, Mike Santoli. [20VC, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBE7YgbrZzuoWlbXpphJdgZzmz84OQfWqZlprYNHnXCrUcSBOo9YAu94Vne6nEkay-2B17QnxL69jK-2FiuJ8pTq7prf96kE8-2B0-2F0T1nk927Z0DA-3D-3D3TwV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx0N9MbedY6sh8Eox7rWRDOfs9qNf8IWn7dygKpDLtni6YVYHVFg-2FsB-2F9zGBUs-2FORQoNjp-2FtWBbCuw1A-2Fn-2FUelozaaE16ANO3SA-2BHFl7LyUiAKPnqrEnGhfqpZGRoIcrzRkohowikdTne-2BNCGdBkGRCA-3D): Rory O'Driscoll. (Pundit and host commentary citing Bloomberg, WSJ and BTIG data.)

* *SoftBank got its bond done, at a price.* It "did raise $11 billion in a high yield offering globally," paying "9.75% at the highest end," partly "to take out debt they'd already taken on for the money they put into OpenAI." Demand "was pretty good," but the host's headline, citing Bloomberg, was "the easy money is done for data centers."
* *The hidden-leverage list keeps growing.* Faber: beyond headline capex, "it's residual value guarantees. It's SPVs [special-purpose vehicles that borrow separately from the parent] that don't actually fully show what the indebtedness is… It's the leases." He also cited a WSJ graphic showing AI spending is "the largest portion of GDP… since the spending on the rails in the late 1800s."
* *Stress is showing at the weak end of credit.* BTIG's CCC-vs-B spread (the extra yield on the riskiest junk bonds over the next tier up) "is widening out," and office CMBS delinquency is "now surpassing the 08 crisis highs." That's the higher-rate environment working its way through the weaker borrowers.
* *IPOs are being pulled, then the market rips.* O'Driscoll describes a WSJ morning headline about "deals pull[ed] as Wall Street worries about data center trade" (naming SB Energy and a nuclear company). By evening, after a huge Nasdaq session, it read "Nasdaq explodes as AI CapEx fears recede." That's "terror, greed… in the same eight hour period."
* *OpenAI's capex, on and off balance sheet.* O'Driscoll's read of OpenAI's reported forecast: ARR from "35… to 350" in "three or four years," a "net burn of 278 billion" against "122 billion of cash on hand," and "CapEx required… around 700 billion… not all of which is on their balance sheet." The reason it's affordable: "companies like Oracle and like NVIDIA with kind of rev support and backstop insurance… say, we'll do the CapEx and lease it to you." Item 1 is what happens when that CapEx runs late.

## The debate

*Bull: the build is supply-limited, and the demand signals are real-time.* - *Supply is the brake, not demand.* Morningstar: "$750 billion" this year, "materially above $1 trillion" in 2027, and it "would be occurring faster" with more chips, networking and power ([The Morning Filter, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3Dc3uC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2B9YX-2FviecS-2ByikV7ClWc4lifsjtzYUPuEcJw4DBO-2FC76j-2BeXDdUgSotMaqjXIvsFgIZjB6pZp-2FrSv98cKZlvX0ylZWEm1HLSReEXQH3bBNTaQwieRSOBvWgAXwOfNgBh16yUo-2Bv-2BzR-2FqxqxWpgnlms-3D)). - *Compute is sold out.* A macro strategist on Full Signal whose firm has tracked on-demand GPU availability since 2023 says: "GPU availability is on the floor. You cannot get a Blackwell right now on demand." Even older H200s tightened again. He calls this "the most bullish factor for the market" and thinks "the earnings estimates for cloud revenue across the hyperscalers… [are] understated." His warning to himself: "the right tail is underappreciated" ([Full Signal, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgo3eTi7p9XC-2FgAh9i1BXN4RWf8itrrXvmAg6C089K1QlwxqdJ7L0uuz32RyomNu0vx-2FP4dim9dkpycUEjBxetQTAGfM5n4tfaSPeVhiUucew-3D-3DK2w7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxxVw95XC7z6lofGUHdBji6QbMC-2BJgXab2DEKxI3aEKTwuEZ2C9g3KdmJGVuAbo4z3j1hb5iPwCwK-2FidJEmutYmT2oix5nRav4PbtxQzMfo7jxESX8Rkzw7aqt8kL-2FlJfFBMO0KW6nzOew9KBt8wwfGg-3D)). - *Customers are pre-paying.* Nscale collects "about 23%" of contract value up front, and Microsoft's contract has no termination for convenience ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DrJP4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx35AYztLFC4uRfKW4R8bYCvaFZ8h6yMhlXoiiAJwr4tfcL3y3RpQa0Ub2tM3NOrDnRSn5hffV1mpWjzrb9yxbdowIOFHax4z4UB1i8Gb2RGEFQZYcn5Ykd-2BlbHXALDtWGf3UU10pXhbQGcNq0KxZl9A-3D)). Memory makers now sell on take-or-pay contracts "sold out through 2026," with visibility "out to 2029, 2030" ([Market News with Rodney Lake, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj9qRc3PncPYmxStIKNkZNheE-2Byvln-2BXnqozHdlE0RKet64z9HW03NkL6cU63FwEmjbCscFoXSqGaHhRuaAjJI-2FQNDHyvWx94GZ-2BSpyctBejQ-3D-3DFRqD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxy0yKbb6CLizL9Grv6KSZ9SyL937tPcfCfPSdaFJfXHr3xffqgQG7SWB6-2FVXrL7ud3mpiUvvUrh4vObCylYBJIl4PpIgjqZs0XxI2vXiCkSrvVTtIXTRJUJeQ10W9LkN0L5J0vj8-2BUIv4QTRzzVsJjk-3D)). - *Monetization got a product.* Meta's Muse gives the biggest single capex budget a consumer use case, plus a stated "1 to 2%" transaction take ([Bloomberg Intelligence, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlDJSKcZYcIvmSFFztaXL6svuFPiuqODHgJJDfVNPkETCMNjH3UcJJc32jsoL7ngQl7xZ-2BNktKpgLWqlKOJfSGKIZH8CVuF0cAqR0sSzmRxA-3D-3DcJzQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx78zcuxWar9TU6zDFyJQVE1ucDtpz8xZlpCIlKWwZeWtce3mISulEmRqYGVf5I1a4gHF8tJFY6U60LXtxZpMjDc-2Bxef2qeg-2BoZD9O0w-2Bnu0jL-2BhL-2F16CmXxYBgmawb-2BRvzVnmymtk1g0ql0hP45eXDo-3D)).

*Bear: the backlog is paper, the build is slow, and the financing is circular.* - *Contracts aren't concrete.* Nscale has $103.4 billion signed and $2.6 billion live. Its biggest contract is on a campus "that isn't built on power that isn't generating yet, funded by money that hasn't been raised" ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3D8T2m_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxwD3sF2M03S8cJBq1aDlPjY9NRpLnTA-2FguSiZCzuFcy-2Bapd-2Bw-2FN1UvGfTiT0B-2FbDwQ2dW-2FjPyo18R3yPwW49c5uAoClHfYxmGXAOq9oGCCkyJv9L3BmjTEcBnhehDLKT1ix93zIyKHmSLkRo9a0HZ64-3D)). - *Delays are now reaching lenders.* Jupiter's $18 billion loan was already "below $0.90," and the tenant is lawyering up for delays ([Bloomberg Tech, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRhghjRBJtWoRPJemrvkrwkChBuy2siM2BiBOA2-2B5xqrjaQCr5DcxPVG96Fa2-2BNwuboazyhbFbyJqobBCSqTnSjgDCItN3WtQy-2FfISTzQCKQ-3D-3DYSfX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx6I2gt1-2F-2BVM7DntiTBsRkER2J159Gk46kdtm1uPruWOTTZyvuR8THS-2FRvljjB9G0h5GPUqGYrQV1hriwdkAWcKJTqdqDuVZ5ATjQNcUaQcY6lYPRAjdUWdxOJY1wu9ZWiZAPxmMc47ZY-2Fw-2FwOhB1z-2FI-3D)). - *Vendor financing.* Nvidia is Nscale's "supplier, investor, guarantor, and customer." OpenAI's ~$700 billion capex relies on Oracle and Nvidia "backstop" structures ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3Dap7Z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxw2mDh76-2FKIFJisibikJlVPj5Ojnzea8cjOCq4X6Kbxh9T0shC6vX65YpJSXiNqbV50VTY-2FqZpThs1EJTbKnRApf4lXHGajA-2FBmZfRe6c7aPI4eYuq9LLHVn6dS5ppIcziMr-2BrszRarCO4Wxkk3eC1I-3D); [20VC, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBE7YgbrZzuoWlbXpphJdgZzmz84OQfWqZlprYNHnXCrUcSBOo9YAu94Vne6nEkay-2B17QnxL69jK-2FiuJ8pTq7prf96kE8-2B0-2F0T1nk927Z0DA-3D-3DWfPV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxyyLscw-2BlvXclrFIqxVo2vJTGmFhChCdmNxJN8balh9BahsSMVLTRs0eVVrNMRNYSqeRDz8KgSPFIhGNLCiUQjUsx8e9dBewPV9Nlk6f4BW6tfkRvMq9gWcb0MtZzy-2FuKkRIIKIL7s44QRxmXXoQP1k-3D)). - *Macro gravity.* The same Full Signal strategist notes the Fed is now hiking ("three cuts to four hikes"). AI capex runs at "3% of nominal GDP" annually, and that spending is itself what's raising the neutral rate, the interest rate that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy. He'd "question our call to be overweight equities if semis broke back below the lows they made in July" ([Full Signal, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgo3eTi7p9XC-2FgAh9i1BXN4RWf8itrrXvmAg6C089K1QlwxqdJ7L0uuz32RyomNu0vx-2FP4dim9dkpycUEjBxetQTAGfM5n4tfaSPeVhiUucew-3D-3DuljV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx9-2B7QcMBMcOpf0aNeBpChjOswPQ-2BJMPICSsoFhS7YMibYh2qjOAtg0rqp3XMUsstSWvdQE-2FK7S6xknNN6iJZe-2B30Oh-2BH-2Bfwfsb-2F-2BXBOJlf-2FJfpEJVWlEnI1Ah7HT7lOa8aZn7RRdk9Nzc7QphXALhXA-3D)).

*Sell signals to watch.* 1. *More force majeure or rent-deferral notices* on other powered-shell leases, or Jupiter debt moving from "stressed" to "distressed." 2. *Nscale's IPO pricing* coming in well below the reported ~$35 billion target, or getting pulled like the deals O'Driscoll described. 3. *GPU availability rising / rental rates falling.* Per Full Signal, "availability leads rental rates," so a jump in on-demand Blackwell availability is the earliest crack. 4. *Semis breaking the July lows*, Full Signal's own line in the sand. 5. *Anthropic or other lab tranches terminated for late delivery*, which is the specific trigger written into Nscale's contract.

## Stocks in play

*NVDA.* *Bull:* "You cannot get a Blackwell right now on demand," and rental rates are holding high even on older chips ([Full Signal, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgo3eTi7p9XC-2FgAh9i1BXN4RWf8itrrXvmAg6C089K1QlwxqdJ7L0uuz32RyomNu0vx-2FP4dim9dkpycUEjBxetQTAGfM5n4tfaSPeVhiUucew-3D-3Dr0Fs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx9Q8M58Fo0N5kTswvG9ViKviphY-2F2DVfHw2hRrG-2F6z1RWBbbU59iQW-2Fqr5KjHWlCIis8FtLC2WLD2ZKaL2ECIhsDO0B36tThss5hxSnCED9yYZKKY4Wf-2FRvJebUuol2gyxEatS9YKuvepHxNwUXAm8M-3D)). *Bear:* the Nscale filing shows Nvidia as the neocloud's "supplier, investor, guarantor, and customer," including "up to $860 million" of rent guarantees. That's the vendor-financing loop in black and white ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3D_C3p_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx2t6k0-2F5Qy35ysiaMyCwB3jdJLujV2bE7Z6V0xs9IMKhCryb0XEjRmNAHn1N0XR3n6Dt0W9xGg1p89ES15FSa12USvSiSRcDthnNrPUukZhmFK6MgCdO9ESJ8kmB-2BN4ljQ0jk7tt0f1d6SPjhTPZ6b4-3D)). *Next catalyst:* Nscale IPO pricing, a public price on Nvidia-backed neocloud risk.

*AVGO.* *Bull:* AI revenue guided to "$120 billion" (fiscal 2027) and "$240 billion" (fiscal 2028) with "supply guaranteed," a guide Hock Tan reaffirmed this week. Morningstar fair value is "$650" ([The Morning Filter, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3D5ScL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx665tkppA1Ido0ZNNgSp8Sg9hZw4Fyq6z9RcEeTqcoWQEF2KhS6aqLXww2HyEAZeTb1d1mDPFCsbYjZPqcTLs44Ba1rDJrvsIG1d3aHhReyLSvubHdp4nVZuR7Id7Pag6w2vJpGqf9CPetUCS2nIlbg-3D)). *Bear:* Broadcom's custom-chip share falls from "near 100%" as Google adds MediaTek for the TPU. Growth tapers to "25%" in 2029 and "mid-teens" after, and custom chips dilute gross margin ([The Morning Filter, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3DSFRW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx4H5LHHqUHxvKrEpHsT7Oz85VwS0166Z9ecTFexT2pNNK9b-2B8NkY7YrOGo-2F8ovm9-2BKfHD-2BuEfi9IThMvcmAd6vXPdimf-2FGRCXB3CJi-2B7zUruKJJbCMohaVTRU0t2ks7h4pu3w8omoYeFXm-2FbeRvYhUo-3D)). *Next catalyst:* the next hyperscaler custom-chip order update, or any news on MediaTek's TPU share.

*AMD.* *Bull:* no company-specific signal. It's still levered to Full Signal's "sold-out compute" read. *Bear:* no company-specific signal. *Next catalyst:* an MI450/Helios deployment update. Quiet on the podcasts this cycle.

*MSFT.* *Bull:* locking in capacity fast. Nscale's Microsoft contract runs "up to approximately $43.8 billion through 2033," with terms of "five to six years" and no walk-away for convenience ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DsqLA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2BUE1pMx77nmmYXgeDJE-2FWIAHDIydj0qMO2o8lve9uGx64dY99H0LM-2BMqWoNX-2BR5leI1KTg3lYCD1x4Asci0CR2cbNWMj8bXF99URf-2BvMsLYTpEC-2FvrvOQpKiIUW5dINAvd-2BudG8oNFNLThTWG-2B-2F8qs-3D)). *Bear:* that's a lot of committed spend sitting off the balance sheet with a gross-margin-negative counterparty whose clusters are mostly unbuilt ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DtCNS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxyqSHzzxFhQbzp7sFQzuRZYTh64dszydIWPOJbG5kBxagvmHNI19l98ftji1SI0ijjxfzcnkIrTB0cfNatWrM8ncYYyK0tquDcGspC3LOy62f-2FT2bk-2F8scz-2BBCqoNLFJ1LREErFRnCRYapLifOwg2so-3D)). *Next catalyst:* fiscal Q1 earnings and any disclosure on neocloud lease commitments.

*GOOGL.* *Bull:* the TPU franchise keeps widening. Google remains Broadcom's anchor custom-chip customer after "10 years" of TPU work ([The Morning Filter, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3DMg3K_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx4e3T-2BvXPav9DRzdI4XfFMRdZJ8RCr5So64-2BaCvYe-2BgCs2jSH3Gt7BPNEoWG3iyStRwSR-2BrMAGmToIPrVbPBTSg7AU34i4T0SqvS6rDYgClLuYXN0rYSCjcuSV-2FegvpiNMXz4FhqH2-2BMoc90WUum-2F2k-3D)). Project Suncatcher, its orbital-compute partnership with Planet Labs, could start launching prototype satellites "as soon as next week" ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvOHRM8yGCHe1fbtq-2F2UPJVoYdlF61rPQzzjPQr1-2FWFgp1jcPkFF0SQpyIaV6HL231UMizX4WFM4Dix2T-2FSOZk3g-3D-3DBusH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx2UNyDLyxk0vc2MgtL-2B9zl6o4J2WWaRSCEWIM11zBKJc85VZkzH47y-2FQHABTmT-2F8NR57yVqFhLupguZGSDshf023deTglCtJ-2FMPaAjx7wMhYxXQBepwXKlgVOk1xcGrnlTdfoi-2BWVVxgHpwsKlcbPGY-3D)). *Bear:* dual-sourcing the TPU with MediaTek is a sign Google is squeezing supplier costs, and it rents out only "50%" of its capacity on cloud ([Bloomberg Intelligence, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlDJSKcZYcIvmSFFztaXL6svuFPiuqODHgJJDfVNPkETCMNjH3UcJJc32jsoL7ngQl7xZ-2BNktKpgLWqlKOJfSGKIZH8CVuF0cAqR0sSzmRxA-3D-3DtwYc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx6tWqNG4A5nBfc-2Fa8n-2FC4XEnyJiXPqz2kPFon0-2B1rzEB1goDQRdELjVfpoLd6ej-2FBZuJiGwBWmanQ4tfZtLHzkrFImlScggBSFFgNR9kmhVTJANp3OuXGPou2lvXzO3FZU352epnImw-2BgRkHv0v6j4I-3D)). *Next catalyst:* the Suncatcher launch next week.

*AMZN.* *Bull:* "Amazon rents everything on cloud," so tight compute flows straight to AWS pricing ([Bloomberg Intelligence, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlDJSKcZYcIvmSFFztaXL6svuFPiuqODHgJJDfVNPkETCMNjH3UcJJc32jsoL7ngQl7xZ-2BNktKpgLWqlKOJfSGKIZH8CVuF0cAqR0sSzmRxA-3D-3DxJlO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx2oP2FOcQHh8QahhRqTH4-2BywoldcP9BCVOn-2Ft6uYoWgup35S0Kc8znNFG9Uk6gsxZd4vFq-2FMKVQVFh1AT2aDIifJIuFhsgG-2FqApajkXc9yGOc79ub-2BuFJNcgfssDfUo7UPpBeXtP3GOkjZ2QSTFVwc0-3D)). *Bear:* no company-specific bear signal this cycle. *Next catalyst:* Q3 earnings. Largely quiet on the podcasts this cycle.

*META.* *Bull:* Muse has turned capex into a product. Singh expects 2027 capex raised "at least 60, 70%," LightShed's target is "$925," and O'Driscoll says Meta added "$100 billion in market cap this week" ([Bloomberg Intelligence, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlDJSKcZYcIvmSFFztaXL6svuFPiuqODHgJJDfVNPkETCMNjH3UcJJc32jsoL7ngQl7xZ-2BNktKpgLWqlKOJfSGKIZH8CVuF0cAqR0sSzmRxA-3D-3DOyd8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2FfFFIREwkMtkr9R2dorkqfUuHVVDevMWA0CGLmoiSjB7PFf3ojH9OkNf2aOHZSedz5iH-2FQctrCOY-2F1pJNro-2FfGAZgfyN5Ce02r2GuGFwfM8tRHuqEpH-2BaIMRcW-2BE3iL5TWpbbHy8oyUnnPcdpth-2B3s-3D); [Squawk Pod, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtJmG-2FHgFX7x6bqgZl-2F6qFKOeupaSWoRohrg-2BRV6zse4rYSil-2BzMso07-2F-2B51CiRIFHlSQYRLQ1Psw1cVtgV8E486PI3ywzfmG5BIOdNOC7WQ-3D-3Dwp5D_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2BvNESrzROIbWmUvNRVZmTYuGoIRs0nD6Wj6CY68-2F-2FO5ce4nkTu0A3cfE6cSd00W12JJ7Yi35Pnr-2BLFzYQuJ3UxTptLtB-2BCv2OgJFYE8rKT7-2BcgDWlbYBpQq-2BKhBmI8xRXnY4m-2Bq3r4p0uQ2oAedgn8-3D); [20VC, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBE7YgbrZzuoWlbXpphJdgZzmz84OQfWqZlprYNHnXCrUcSBOo9YAu94Vne6nEkay-2B17QnxL69jK-2FiuJ8pTq7prf96kE8-2B0-2F0T1nk927Z0DA-3D-3D542B_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx5uSHE-2FkouATTG1Jz2b94-2BXdAIrebweBWol6KynRAtNM-2FVkHoSwPD5Pcc35bG2kf229HqLUkXaZA1SY14sWbjrVKAwF1vTF89tXwDnURRe6QIl-2BNfcyPOtd1yQhQfFPCBGJPqm-2FicqO-2BCmGJVHgDsSw-3D)). *Bear:* "they haven't given us a monetization model," and "150 billion plus in CapEx" still needs an ROI ([Bloomberg Intelligence, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlDJSKcZYcIvmSFFztaXL6svuFPiuqODHgJJDfVNPkETCMNjH3UcJJc32jsoL7ngQl7xZ-2BNktKpgLWqlKOJfSGKIZH8CVuF0cAqR0sSzmRxA-3D-3Dng89_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx8bwzy-2BjXrEbUb-2BftFdV-2FclL2sfgKOqPiYS3-2FGJR80Puc3M7zmckVSWyc-2B4g9-2Bh-2Fp99doP8MpA-2F-2BANukyxFwDh6T9id2Kih4RnCA9sw4S3K6dE9PQZ2iV99-2FcNauxz9ZiJoJIFAqUX9P9UZdyQn2xak-3D)). *Next catalyst:* the Q3 earnings call, and whether the 2027 capex number lands near Singh's range.

*Also in play:* *ORCL / Blue Owl (OWL):* Jupiter force majeure; ORCL down roughly 4–7% intraday; project loans "below $0.90" ([Bloomberg Tech, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRhghjRBJtWoRPJemrvkrwkChBuy2siM2BiBOA2-2B5xqrjaQCr5DcxPVG96Fa2-2BNwuboazyhbFbyJqobBCSqTnSjgDCItN3WtQy-2FfISTzQCKQ-3D-3DS6Cv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx4sra0UyiZWRRmQTi-2BtJPTW2IwBjDTuOfRs1QRoUyvchAJjWVmRQgruP7Gx-2BqhJqBkX7WMbkXPzPDgjOrsA6Og-2FeRHB-2BhGulWBjrtcZe3UecVuSXdif8rqTRoFkhXLh2riZ1JAYTseTcnbXpBcOXYE8-3D)). *Nscale (NSCL, pending):* prospectus reviewed above ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DOSVU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2BWynN5AVBsBjQ86nuvdogRuO4pG3ao1RY0vMPLCjvuF3pquKm-2FQnahPpQQJfLOqAJcfnBdx8JiwO5SBJ4DWBHHM6Ynt1X4Xh5QDfUnUbH9ASs-2BKIfMyhWEowlFqM2PcjBFeui-2B11M1Zh5SpFYkXhtE-3D)). *SoftBank:* $11 billion high-yield deal at up to "9.75%" ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvOHRM8yGCHe1fbtq-2F2UPJVoYdlF61rPQzzjPQr1-2FWFgp1jcPkFF0SQpyIaV6HL231UMizX4WFM4Dix2T-2FSOZk3g-3D-3D6aAb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx2IKD6lim9nDwrgsOfdSeI09ZFjyVGXyvL20Z7A0tWyjrYvpKZjZKJsbhv9UvmWGKxfpYxfY7cltZhiuMo-2B2OOUsJ3W-2B2-2BGfFpPLxI7foXXywm1PW0BpmoAclVSRgs1ykOe7bbtP4vLHySGnRWueeZA-3D)).

## Read-throughs

* *Power / thermal (VRT, ETN, GEV, Bloom): the bottleneck just got a real-world example.* Jupiter shows the binding constraint is getting power delivered to the site: permits, gas pipelines, local approval. Chips aren't the holdup. Squawk flagged the Oracle move "extending to GEV and Vertiv" ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvOHRM8yGCHe1fbtq-2F2UPJVoYdlF61rPQzzjPQr1-2FWFgp1jcPkFF0SQpyIaV6HL231UMizX4WFM4Dix2T-2FSOZk3g-3D-3DyvM3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx0-2BqZTsNBB8Q-2BGuAOBnahdetjk1b-2FdfaeY2i-2Bw3b35dc5xbtE0qj7zbWap9dKBmclTzWa4C6YGAfTgGjLOVRL3P63GqBVZ0YnCa8B9DsrrrQejwTK-2FufWzQxBklY-2BNdr5KmRZ-2BFxjmYTeLhP0XstJWg-3D)). The longer-term read is still bullish for grid builders. Quanta CEO Duke Austin, at EEI's annual conference: "we're going to double the size of the grid," with Quanta "on a pace to… start hiring 10,000 employees a year" and 2030 as the "drop-dead date." He also says permitting holdups are mostly "at the state level, at the local level, more so than… the federal level," which is exactly Jupiter's problem ([Electric Perspectives, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi6zv-2FK8lHb61lhusFzGqBSJf9x-2B7p-2BNHH9CuvFikF5nWnYJYRpRZK7a59A4gbryaGjkKG8aFJGrLmE9X-2Bfz9IJBIQA5Qjrm2ohcGglUqGuQA-3D-3DjftU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx7ZJlLULGnUJssnKLMBUHAfW0isn4LJjeFgagPgEJlNxI-2FusZFm7Eck2BspCTk9DM9snTqXS425a116O8A6ImCUomKMosyZwb22yTa0sNegNIhiNcjUdRyiZJWsOFXFGYVSTbFNeEAivHerAemj7Zbg-3D)). *Most actionable:* favor the names that fix delivery (grid construction, onsite power) over pure data-center landlords exposed to delay.
* *Load flexibility: Oracle's other message.* Also at EEI, Oracle's global head of regulatory affairs, Mary Sprayregan, cited Duke University research: managing "0.5% of the maximum uptime of new loads" could add "nearly 100 gigawatts of large load to the grid with a minimal impact." She said Oracle, with Emerald AI in Phoenix, cut power use "by 25% during the two hours of the greatest peak demand" while keeping compute quality ([Electric Perspectives, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi6zv-2FK8lHb61lhusFzGqBSJf9x-2B7p-2BNHH9CuvFikF5nWnYJYRpRZK7a59A4gbryaGjkKG8aFJGrLmE9X-2Bfz9IJBIQA5Qjrm2ohcGglUqGuQA-3D-3D8c_t_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2Fs5ikW0dAcBfbRlnujElx-2Fnk0lM2Ga1SyzfxjcWM4SNhIR-2FC4Dcl3JivNs2HHWU4TTJjo-2BKOyyaVQUJHwq-2FlptvXsC-2FXd01KqCWPwA0cthQ8-2BygIxn60aiNe-2FD2kjL32V-2BrkKAaEa7tLCVmTQ5aFVI-3D)). If data centers can flex their load, more of them can connect to the grid sooner. That's the fix for Jupiter-style delays.
* *Memory (MU, SK Hynix, Samsung): the "not cyclical anymore" argument, in numbers.* On Market News with Rodney Lake, the director of GW's Investment Institute puts Micron at a "one trillion dollar market cap." Trailing revenue is "$90 billion." Projected fiscal 2026 revenue is "$129" billion ("246%" growth), and fiscal 2027 is "249" billion. Gross margins run from "72%" now to projected "80%" and "86%." The drivers are HBM take-or-pay contracts "sold out through 2026," with visibility to "2029, 2030." Capex is "$28 billion" this fiscal year and "$45" billion next. His honest caveat: "if your thesis on AI changes dramatically… it moves back towards a cyclical business" ([Market News with Rodney Lake, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj9qRc3PncPYmxStIKNkZNheE-2Byvln-2BXnqozHdlE0RKet64z9HW03NkL6cU63FwEmjbCscFoXSqGaHhRuaAjJI-2FQNDHyvWx94GZ-2BSpyctBejQ-3D-3DD-tN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx1sd7t1XVhRno-2B5Doc9WU5GSkRy8mDbF38GoR-2FBPGQb8aeNia8Go-2FKnscvhKH87CMf1WYob6cIn4N-2Bn9qIv32jhboGOKKxL6UlcxasmVbfQbScKf33X7GvpnXmYqA70lDjP-2BlLGela-2FU0-2Br0IQoSeb4-3D)). (Educational/academic commentary; the data runs through May.) *Most actionable:* Micron's Sept 30 print decides whether those projections hold.
* *Optics / networking (MRVL, GLW, MXL): "2027 is all about the optical connections."* The MoneyFlows Show (retail-investor pundits, not specialists) pitches optics as the next bottleneck after memory. They cite Nvidia and Corning's plan to "increase U.S. optical capacity by tenfold." Their estimates: Corning optical sales of "$8.5 billion" (2026), "$11.1 billion" (2027) and "$14.6 billion" (2028); Marvell data-center sales of "9.8 billion," "15.7 billion" and "23.6 billion" (2027–2029), plus an "industry-first 2-nanometer optical technology" demo this week; and MaxLinear's Q3 guide of "$215 million at the midpoint" vs. "$174 million" consensus ([The MoneyFlows Show, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVy0o4DVEOFXXxLQ3OPOVZzkCcuZdkrtYvNL5Rmd3-2BTr6lsZuyvcEgJEbtG5BTKaLdq9Y6-2F9qRlRSSSDDKartRfjUzGHCXLsxDqMaXhaau9g-3D-3DTw5M_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxwpd0GIq8GpthxdI6fLxtP-2Bbid84Xku-2Fs8npCSuKC4O06Lyynd77d-2F7mPfHRvCHU-2FX7YPwN2Yuy4VM9aBittrVoa5fGuytaS-2B-2F6Ym7RfGy9z7ftp2vPIYhnACp8GSVgYsJutnSlfRLn0TCb08CLwD74-3D)). Treat it as a theme check rather than operator evidence. *Most actionable:* Marvell straddles both custom chips (per Morningstar, it holds Microsoft and AWS designs) and optics.
* *Data layer / neoclouds: demand keeps surprising the suppliers.* VAST Data CEO Renen Hallak (valued at "$30 billion") says one AI-cloud customer forecast "500 petabytes over the next three years" and then "came back… and said we're going to need an extra two exabytes on top." Racks have gone from "10 kilowatt" to "500 kilowatt." He argues neoclouds beat hyperscalers by building "in anticipation of demand rather than behind the demand." Hyperscalers "are aware of the fact that their lunch is being eaten" ([The MAD Podcast, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBiRflroc0LHwNOGDV89KQrb4KFtP0URndHDgoY2pZdycCRkVbnnjNYD0J6-2FC-2Fgsx-2FSUJf6KkjEdlyNKWTZHUrqkdlYTuXf7a1HhKIuaI0pQ-3D-3DaFuT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx-2FiLxaB5-2BWgX7lTuiu5UVub3K-2Bm84GmfGTFT7KOmlysnsDYD1jcAohTA2EieUdUGjTpRtNx5B2KWr7EYDI4-2B1IJX-2BVscT3RxbOSB1EK-2BMMWg2Ykup7qXQbzpwTmnoCFZ28CTdw6EW3dgHky0MsrTS3s-3D)). (Operator testimony.)
* *Nuclear / utilities (VST, CEG, TLN): quiet this cycle.* No dedicated nuclear PPA commentary surfaced.

## What changed vs last issue

Last issue (Thursday, Sept 24, "Bear names the date. Goldman brings the data.") covered the Sept 23–24 podcasts. That was Kedrosky pulling his break forward to "six to 12 months," Goldman's Amanda Lynam rebutting him with issuance data, and Azhar's six-year chip-life evidence. This edition covers the Sept 24 podcasts. The story shifted from *financing theory* to *delivery practice*.

* *From "the debt might break" to "a project is actually late."* Last issue's risk was abstract: rates, hurdle rates, auctions. This cycle has a concrete, named project in trouble. Oracle's force majeure on Jupiter has "$18 billion" of loans "below $0.90" ([Bloomberg Tech, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRhghjRBJtWoRPJemrvkrwkChBuy2siM2BiBOA2-2B5xqrjaQCr5DcxPVG96Fa2-2BNwuboazyhbFbyJqobBCSqTnSjgDCItN3WtQy-2FfISTzQCKQ-3D-3DGH9y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxzBqwcg14W2A8V0n3oBugjYTailERIBTDlHZgT2kYEwKsTyDzthxEwmfAjtyRP2xRpj8drzkPwXIUtehR67RxBp6bMgJh5I-2FDm-2FPN76e9L4c1TEZhrg5lm6ePOdSs2SGlmHivOSEBUNoaMdUXBXVQcs-3D)). Neither Kedrosky nor Lynam had a live example. Now there is one.
* *The aggregate capex anchor moved up.* The letter's standing marker was $700B+ for 2026 and ~$1T for 2027. Morningstar now says "around $750 billion" and "pretty materially above $1 trillion," with 2028 growing again ([The Morning Filter, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3D2My1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxz7VcgQDwEemfr-2FdAe9vBvMyjkjNhyolWdWlu8gCN8GewXjwJfEs7yjC0zeTlPN2jaOLoU-2FXcFMfi-2Bu4hpEHFjdZEH9TqN7u9iIOd-2FG93wsK8XCfRf-2Bgh3wlV1OeIKhUyB1VKTJC6cKri7H3Kojmh00-3D)). Alongside last issue's Goldman "$6 trillion, 2026–2030," that makes two major-house anchors, both at the high end.
* *Meta's 2027 number drifted up.* Last issue pinned Meta at "$130–145B" for 2026 and "~$200B" for 2027 (TIP848). This cycle Bloomberg Intelligence expects a raise of "at least 60, 70%, if not higher" at the Q3 call. On a ~$140B base, that points toward roughly $225–240B (my arithmetic) ([Bloomberg Intelligence, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlDJSKcZYcIvmSFFztaXL6svuFPiuqODHgJJDfVNPkETCMNjH3UcJJc32jsoL7ngQl7xZ-2BNktKpgLWqlKOJfSGKIZH8CVuF0cAqR0sSzmRxA-3D-3Drvuk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYxxVvp6qspaqzUOsSVrtzon5IvcDS0-2BoVjgJXqMwj7Fk4A-2BhtPW4ZM6IeXE9Pm4VH4F1Hosc43xd8Npnxj8gr3mzxkJttbUrYpkQseMsqgEwO4neWoEC3m-2F2NWkhw-2BasssuH0ytPpDcubzQGtV36yPV4-3D)).
* *Last issue's open item, resolved: SoftBank priced.* We flagged the SoftBank/OpenAI-related bond as "the near-term credit tell." It came as an "$11 billion" high-yield deal at up to "9.75%." Demand was "pretty good," but so was the coupon ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvOHRM8yGCHe1fbtq-2F2UPJVoYdlF61rPQzzjPQr1-2FWFgp1jcPkFF0SQpyIaV6HL231UMizX4WFM4Dix2T-2FSOZk3g-3D-3DCk1H_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx3cj6QW-2F3-2BjM0FtWR9oHXRY7efym54vB4NdiZPfN-2Br3wYLFlm7d2TC7qHsfxN40dtNjYLydN5MVEagV4YBeRGi5cbiTJTqX5nCYLMk8qGqsHCMHmIiEaZllyTrxdPSLJ1RrE6IxoVi4KhC3H6fqqdUI-3D)).
* *The Anthropic IPO slip got more concrete.* Last issue labeled it a *rumor* (Oct 1 → November). This cycle, 20VC discusses a November listing as the bankers' plan ("go out in November where it's clean"). The hosts read it as confidence, not stress ([20VC, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBE7YgbrZzuoWlbXpphJdgZzmz84OQfWqZlprYNHnXCrUcSBOo9YAu94Vne6nEkay-2B17QnxL69jK-2FiuJ8pTq7prf96kE8-2B0-2F0T1nk927Z0DA-3D-3DilO8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx86lMErjmRSYppaz5qDJ-2FX0eYJw-2BJtVKe9W1YMCqtFpFVdjv1pInGIPWmsDAOhwy9BTKcsTn5k6Wrt5nlXEEymnZ3b9BtDM-2B6oq6ZcARUAHmcZi652oo8YHRrNkqBuUen0JgtHVn8lg261XSHldrtuA-3D)). Still not confirmed by the company in anything we've heard.
* *Neocloud risk got a disclosure document.* Last issue treated CoreWeave as both the bull exhibit (six-year chips "100% used") and the bear archetype (debt-laden). This cycle Nscale's S-1 puts hard numbers on the bear version: negative gross margins, 85% concentration in two customers, unfunded builds ([Run the Numbers, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DE5_t_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx8J3ONcD6drGXnwIFrGX7puXQRcVtt5k-2Big1frXRZpWBeR7TBLY-2FKWWYngOMgX8-2B63HO2i04KaC9NfX4paOwG-2BgaQ8b2owat2TpWj2LIjM-2BemKk-2F4egZ1sYcgmjJA-2FQP4y07JmQp43SRveRB2O-2Bc5m0-3D)).
* *The depreciation debate is quiet this cycle,* with no new chip-life data. Full Signal's "availability on the floor" read is consistent with last issue's "rental prices holding up."
* *Still quiet:* AMD; nuclear PPAs (VST, CEG, TLN); AMZN company-specific color.

*Next catalysts to watch:* *Micron earnings* (Wed, Sept 30): the memory verdict. *OpenAI's launch event* "next week" ([Squawk Pod, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtJmG-2FHgFX7x6bqgZl-2F6qFKOeupaSWoRohrg-2BRV6zse4rYSil-2BzMso07-2F-2B51CiRIFHlSQYRLQ1Psw1cVtgV8E486PI3ywzfmG5BIOdNOC7WQ-3D-3Dl8Se_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVp7tCqH9skgyhPX8LSC6KNgU9uY-2FHBSGKqPY5-2BQVAYx2eUAsfzy-2BBmCQJ3xCv4wKpRaynFY2X2pG14dfMn-2F8WbBv2wDbaimB6N25zCclJNxpP-2Bl9Q4whs2SOtzv3xTYJsruMDzqmPmpy0irIg8Ue0kE7DaHMwLnaNriCCSBrwsUSVey4r-2Bl6q6-2FL2q-2BH3nrV4-3D)). *Google's Suncatcher satellite launches* "as soon as next week." *Nscale IPO pricing* vs. the reported ~$35B target. Any *follow-on force majeure notices* or Jupiter loan moves. And *Meta's Q3 capex guide*.

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