# Samsung Memory Price Hike Sets the Stage for Micron Earnings - HBM & The Memory Supercycle - Week of September 26, 2026

> A synthesis of what podcasts and operators said about high-bandwidth memory and the DRAM and NAND supercycle for the week of September 26, 2026, built around Samsung's first dated contract-price ask and heading into Micron's fiscal Q4 report. Samsung asked phone makers to raise DRAM from $1.50 to $2.00 per gigabit for early 2027, Apple accepted, and the debate turned to whether the shortage is structural or a classic cycle.

## HBM & The Memory Supercycle

### Week of September 26, 2026: Samsung Memory Price Hike Sets the Stage for Micron Earnings

---

For twelve weeks we've been asking for one thing: an actual price. Not "up a lot," not "10–15x," not "through the roof." A number with a unit on it.

This week one showed up. It didn't come from a memory maker or a sell-side desk. It came from an Apple podcast.

On the AppleInsider Podcast, the hosts explained why your next iPhone costs $100 more. Samsung went to phone makers asking to raise the price of memory from **$1.50 to $2.00 per gigabit** for early 2027. Most of them refused to negotiate that early. Apple signed anyway.

That's the setup going into the biggest event on the memory calendar: **Micron's fiscal Q4 report on Wednesday, September 30, after the close.** Micron is back above $1,000. Korea's chip exports are running about 250% above last year. The commentators are near-unanimous that the quarter will be huge. The fight is over what Micron says about *next* year.

Fair warning: this was a thin week for insiders. No memory-maker executive spoke on any podcast we could find. What we got instead was two operators *next to* the memory business, Qualcomm's CFO and the CEO of storage-software firm VAST Data, plus a wave of Micron previews. We've kept those two groups clearly apart below.

---

## TL;DR

- **First real contract price in months (secondhand, via journalists).** Samsung asked phone makers for **$2.00 per gigabit, up from $1.50** (+33%) for 1H 2027 DRAM. Apple accepted, and iPhones went up $100. The hosts expect no relief "before 2028." ([AppleInsider Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg2YY903H3V0UxHWhHMf7XHvBRnfSUOmeeQhxFfQE-2Bc0lJ1fn7sVnYxeOYpzgopYx0NvpnBlQP7L4PCm9CQtgUmTmc7pcogd6TY1FqkHucofg-3D-3Dl199_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrndHG1kEcPCjaYwXTJQNDOqQo78P4T8x2JSMHpZlGWIqJJbGBv10L2TS9YPVGvAUWKv3qUyyhs3I9i951a9mXwSCKVEWn4uOljl4FWfYdxLqGUvlYcrhPHuGSszT2pvc9GA-3D-3D))

- **Micron reports Wednesday, and memory stocks came in hot.** Micron hit a 5% "stock of the day" breakout above $1,000 on Sep 22 ([IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjLfvrBIJDttdck1ri51d-2B-2BlTeLFtkZW0dKwl9VtECxG-2BqEf4NxYlRfkZ3GG6XRXH1U9m4yTxzFhVvxx1nTY9ovIQjCwHkewCzB-2BdniqJbnQ-3D-3Dv-9W_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnazSIVYFVo7NVvDxlnlDBz3-2F5yo50uC5ee1jiwAZ1Fr82XlXBUqMJjxK9PwrWrWbbmDJMUUpxAlnkS3lypgS2HmwPOm2qAFCZBFR4Eh2OuOzN6r6e443eW4nXw12XIVbPA-3D-3D)). The Street is looking for roughly **940% EPS growth and 351% revenue growth** ([IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjixBx5X4yCuFQoKqlUbWVLrijxm6jBEeGWnbj4Y9G4z1YZKmSiDPb3wxoLTVpo5TwPoOnut34tpg1IXZw-2BQdyGdKQTGphChd-2BDCFByqGNPlw-3D-3DwAJG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnYGQlvchAczjO0tJKLn5wHe4-2BSSQKoBxY91he2a0CzQGwlp3LvtW6ZC5WM97M4XTgp6ZuoVB2ErU01M7P0DrKZtdEAofF7tM1s9YO1-2B388xKDgQURIT8ECGjgCGYuvuO5g-3D-3D)), about **$50.9B of revenue and $31.49 EPS** ([Futurum Equities](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DAnY2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnckiGv3ptTBdHU1uZKXhgBkJxt7ZI-2Fml46s3GZ5NLaX1auDdk1EBoqCCoTOvMgy0xqUoSg6gQvuRm-2Bo7vGbAEdRy-2FF-2BF8HP-2F2eG0Tfgrwlf5VUCBFyumstu1x6bVEepkOA-3D-3D)). The stock trades at about **7x next year's earnings** ([Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3D_O0g_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrncizwzrpCiT42Xjh9ombHgwH-2BBlDVGkZ3e7HFfXEu4mNTsCJ9FdzarIOE0OSwcac4Kl-2BYuxycKn6TEnjCqyKJFzDQSPYIHVAEMgbuXhnCcAnYSf5d7sozJksKJm4DvIqWQ-3D-3D)).

- **New idea: NAND flash could be 2027's tightest chip.** Analyst Harsh Kumar says NAND "might be the one that rises the most next year" ([Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DUbCS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnV4ASSmX1FdQNq846kjFyLxDtJpORl2Z4W8qR3yMA0eFaH6-2F-2F6KbiBwNAO0akWHTUxqs41miYJiA-2B-2FNlXoPx9bKsUh2ePtkhCRlwaoPVQih8Sq3BL2aS09oN4VlFj-2BDHXw-3D-3D)). VAST Data's CEO backs that up: one AI cloud customer just added **2 exabytes** to a 500-petabyte, three-year order ([The MAD Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBiRflroc0LHwNOGDV89KQrb4KFtP0URndHDgoY2pZdycCRkVbnnjNYD0J6-2FC-2Fgsx-2FSUJf6KkjEdlyNKWTZHUrqkdlYTuXf7a1HhKIuaI0pQ-3D-3DXhzI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnTjAxm-2Ff8Bk-2FkpJyta-2FcxhSr0f6MxXFe-2BLDyDt3KdJzNuKP9VT6g3iNm0gGmlyXDO5vh9E6Rp5P6ls2XCqw4A4sKamZUg-2Bj6dpKRVkT1I99dLdej62o0PEGLIM7WSVHTTA-3D-3D)).

- **Hard demand data out of Korea.** Korean exports for the first 20 days of September are up almost **80% y/y**, and semiconductors are up about **250%** ([Macro Mondays](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiF1bax9uIy3gdKk8SapZvZ9e03X4h6CRh0V2J4JqgUq1MjMaSxrsZRj8Ogh00EcewKhcdIA1mqmP70UrHUr21vXpPPVrh-2FlY-2BLVRZ5slr6pg-3D-3DD4h-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnVs129l4kXOCnPP9wa39xXjs1DZ64KA7lsaZrxtlKBcDxzI-2Fqjkwx-2FmWTlUxsbDNMUQy4GE7W7X5rr7VSHqQUhIXhJOT1vCAImg8-2BFD0wx-2FnH-2BN-2F7-2B4q03BFGHADhKXy7g-3D-3D)).

- **The costs are reaching phones.** Qualcomm's CFO says rising memory input costs are being passed "on to our customers over the next several months" ([Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhTpmsunIshVUedSAgU1qLaheR2ynKjWt-2FjN-2BUF2LQoAX6lOdZTYlfg7bbYu7kXV5QYTGN0MlArThV0mhSZqaHpXw-2F2Xac5clUjvX3s3wslGA-3D-3DfBqV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnQCb52AUrXXD7Ds7JuCrRPfpLNnbPNp1XEj1OpULL7Ff39VFNyDHYZVRfMc4OyJ8Dwh7ZobzIzurnGK3Fo7b-2BuqU5bHEyyvKVnTshhgFc2kgEgOIg7sU9CgSc9IzDf0tug-3D-3D)).

- **The bear case moved to the money side.** Jim Chanos says hyperscaler returns on new investment could fall **below their cost of capital by mid-2027**. Credit markets have been tightening for "three to four or five months" ([RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3Dgjr1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnXpkAPTOtwTFmSSg4qY2ghMX3okc-2BI8VD1lRZmxQ5fpzbSWbXFaJTaSKPl9io9XcYo6SUb39Pc5nfSWNu8IevoIStm8vcLqI-2B9NCGiRl-2B44d99oXQwqIsevDY-2FuwUfAw8Q-3D-3D)). Meanwhile the 10-year Treasury yield hit **5.2%, a 19-year high** ([Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DaWjV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnR-2Fikwd0JHq-2Fcp5GXd2pdgtNuUi5SFpO5ripEYrQJtPTz3qf64Z5rmEyc-2BQgaS0m3Ps5a0ivpgEfo38gNsOBL3cwysSbXNgZGI63bHIvz0JXv2Uz1MeQ4813alPY3wEmPA-3D-3D)).

---

## What's new

Ranked by how much each item matters for a portfolio. Each one is labeled **OPERATOR** (someone who runs a business in or next to this supply chain) or **PUNDIT/ANALYST** (investors, journalists, commentators).

### 1. Samsung's $2 ask: the first dated price per gigabit in this newsletter's run

**[AppleInsider Podcast, "Ron Johnson & buying iPhones in Apple Stores on the AppleInsider Podcast"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg2YY903H3V0UxHWhHMf7XHvBRnfSUOmeeQhxFfQE-2Bc0lJ1fn7sVnYxeOYpzgopYx0NvpnBlQP7L4PCm9CQtgUmTmc7pcogd6TY1FqkHucofg-3D-3DsJIF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnSLN72dLmY9m2bIpNiGOI9W1ovTn1122CLg5ZwHPjTtg-2F-2BXrvPtufN3eiGUOKmm0ioNoBsmgOmlsZZxQ9rSpCGf18Liz4GC8KDHYJbm-2FDg89dlvAqKyO38mqTBt7sS4a-2Fw-3D-3D)** (Sep 25) · *PUNDIT/JOURNALIST (Apple-beat hosts, reporting secondhand)*

Some plain English first. **DRAM** is the working memory in phones, PCs and servers. **HBM** (high-bandwidth memory) is a premium version: DRAM chips stacked vertically and placed right next to an AI processor. Three companies make nearly all of it: Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. The more factory space they give to HBM for AI data centers, the less is left for ordinary DRAM. The hosts put it this way:

> "The DRAM that we need for iPhones isn't getting made in the quantities it was before."

Then came the number we've been missing for twelve weeks:

> "All of the smartphone manufacturers basically refused to negotiate with Samsung this early. Because Samsung was asking for a $0.50 raise per gigabyte. Now, that doesn't sound like a lot until I tell you that the current price per gigabyte is $1.50... $2 per gigabit, actually. Lowercase b."

And then:

> "Apple went to the negotiating table and agreed to the $2 per gigabit term that other people were unwilling to take. And because Apple is usually the trendsetter, everyone else is going to have to agree or negotiate their own terms."

**Why it matters.** This is a **contract** price, meaning the negotiated long-term rate, not the day-to-day spot market. It's for the **first quarter or first half of 2027**, so pricing is still rising into next year. The hosts said Apple "has paid for its allotments from the supply chain through the end of the year." They also say industry analysts see no relief "before 2028," because new lines won't be online "until late 2028, early 2029."

**Read the fine print.** The host corrected himself mid-sentence from gigabyte to gigabit. For reference, a gigabyte is eight gigabits, so $2.00/Gb works out to about $16 per gigabyte. He also said memory went from "something like 8%" of the iPhone's bill of materials (the total parts cost) to "about 23%," while admitting "I don't have it in front of me." A 33% price rise alone can't move memory from 8% to 23% of a phone's parts cost. That comparison probably mixes different starting points. Trust the **$1.50 to $2.00** move and the fact that Apple signed. Treat the 23% as a rough direction, not a figure to model.

### 2. Qualcomm's CFO confirms the handset squeeze and pitches a fix for the memory bottleneck

**[Schwab Network, "Qualcomm (QCOM) CFO & COO on Snapdragon Chips, Agentic AI & Future Beyond AAPL"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhTpmsunIshVUedSAgU1qLaheR2ynKjWt-2FjN-2BUF2LQoAX6lOdZTYlfg7bbYu7kXV5QYTGN0MlArThV0mhSZqaHpXw-2F2Xac5clUjvX3s3wslGA-3D-3DJkJA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnRC-2F8wTrIkJEStw-2Ba2C-2BX2Gyccc-2BKjdRkF9BrdorJP7zOZBzj2SX0wxgpKa9VaYQOSEG915mak0x9rhOFiGZOm9ySptFmOH43kDSzo6TkEExWc3StK0a1Zt4bffsw025RA-3D-3D)** (Sep 24) · Akash Palkhiwala, CFO & COO, Qualcomm · *OPERATOR (buyer side)*

The week's most senior executive to talk about memory was a buyer. He spoke from Qualcomm's Snapdragon Summit in Hawaii:

> "We've seen very high demand for memory in the data center and it's put pressure on consumer devices, given kind of the ability of consumer devices to only pay a certain amount of price based on affordability."

And on what Qualcomm is doing about it:

> "As we've seen those increase, we talked about passing those costs on to our customers over the next several months... it's something that we have to do as a result of the input cost increases we are seeing."

**Why it matters.** This lines up with item #1 from the other side of the deal. Memory costs are moving down the chain: memory maker to chip designer to phone maker to you. Palkhiwala also pitched a data-center product aimed squarely at the memory problem, "high bandwidth compute," which he called "a very novel packaging technology... that allows us to address one of the key constraints in data center, which is around memory bandwidth." Qualcomm is targeting about **$5B of data-center revenue in fiscal 2027, scaling to $15B by fiscal 2029**, anchored by a **$60B, 10-year Amazon custom-chip deal**. When Qualcomm builds its data-center pitch around memory bandwidth, that tells you how central the memory bottleneck has become.

### 3. Korea's export data: semis up about 250%, and still speeding up

**[Macro Mondays (Real Vision), "Are Markets About to Take Off Again? | September 21, 2026"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiF1bax9uIy3gdKk8SapZvZ9e03X4h6CRh0V2J4JqgUq1MjMaSxrsZRj8Ogh00EcewKhcdIA1mqmP70UrHUr21vXpPPVrh-2FlY-2BLVRZ5slr6pg-3D-3DzQOC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrna604j-2F43R5GmyPnczauXaLhH5mkwVIf9MvNnGNvsjx6T5s1U8igVu-2FAbuDk52z-2B5m3tTuC4GCJq2TohoEFXenQKlmtSDuXSdCQZqzt3zpWtGKjzE3SUnjhYBVECMUEVVw-3D-3D)** (Sep 21) · Andreas Steno Larsen, Steno Research · *PUNDIT/ANALYST (macro strategist, openly long the Korean memory names)*

South Korea publishes trade figures for the first 20 days of each month. Because Samsung and SK Hynix dominate those exports, the report is the fastest hard read on memory demand anywhere. Steno:

> "We're talking about a new acceleration in the numbers for the first 20 days of the month... pointing to an increase of almost 80% year-on-year. If you workday adjusted, it's even more... If you look beneath the hood, semis are up 250% year-over-year, something like that. It's absolutely bizarre, while the broader exports, ex-semis, are up 20%, 22%."

**Why it matters.** These are customs figures, not someone's opinion. They're *accelerating* on a year-over-year basis, which gets harder every month, since you "cannot continue growing 100% a year." Steno also flagged a policy risk: US-China talks could produce "some sort of consensus between the U.S. and China that they cannot renew a license within China for the Korean companies." Samsung and SK Hynix both run fabs in China, so a lost license there would hit supply directly. He's "watching those names within that space with a certain degree of eagerness since we're so heavily invested in them." That disclosure is fair to note.

### 4. Why the next shortage may be NAND

**[Closing Bell Overtime, "Rising Yields Test the Market 9/25/26"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DWZGz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrndTUwwjWhZlrFtFAABSee8ihMPEsKjLuYiXocox-2FUdpgoHQXO7WKh9JEVfuNomFAYXgc-2F0Yi3gIJe3KdEpbUEg7u3mes4w5CaOlLHrhfo723QSyA-2FrPf1QWqP9Bi-2FL-2BIkA-3D-3D)** (Sep 25) · Harsh Kumar, semiconductor equity analyst · *PUNDIT/ANALYST*

Kumar gave the clearest plain-English account of the week of how memory pricing actually works:

> "HBM is on a contractual basis. So it's not possible to raise prices quite as aggressively in the middle of a contract. However, DRAM, as you know, floats a lot better to the market and the spot price. So that's what happened. We're thinking that for probably next year, Flash might be the choke point... NAND Flash might be the one that rises the most next year."

(**NAND flash** is the storage memory in SSDs and phones. It holds data when the power is off. DRAM is working memory that forgets when the power goes.)

He also explained why the squeeze started, using the "trade ratio":

> "For every HBM die you make, you take away three times the surface area from DRAM."

So every HBM chip costs roughly three ordinary DRAM chips' worth of wafer space. His supply timeline: fabs "take two, two and a half, three years to make, and they cost $8 to $10 billion," and "the first tranche of capacity actually comes on in middle of next year... I suspect we'll still be short." He also reminded viewers that "in 2023, Micron had negative 10% gross margin. Just let that sink in for a second." The show's anchor added context: Micron's peak share price was **$1,255, "exactly three months ago today,"** against a **$1,300 price target** heading into the print.

### 5. The operator backing the NAND call: VAST Data's exabyte surprise

**[The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck, "Who Feeds the GPUs? Inside AI's Hidden $30B Layer | Renen Hallak, VAST Data"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBiRflroc0LHwNOGDV89KQrb4KFtP0URndHDgoY2pZdycCRkVbnnjNYD0J6-2FC-2Fgsx-2FSUJf6KkjEdlyNKWTZHUrqkdlYTuXf7a1HhKIuaI0pQ-3D-3DjSSs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrndlN9RI27gb10vRRVcLtfnC00hNrJnaCwLC-2FJu8jaseeTOnjStubSQhcrv-2Fs0cDwfqfw9-2B9QL6qojhRH-2FH0PRii-2F6Uo9Y4AiivGYvUE2ku9KIYlybMmgnSaiW0iSltiweQ-3D-3D)** (Sep 24) · Renen Hallak, founder & CEO, VAST Data (valued at ~$30B) · *OPERATOR (AI storage-infrastructure vendor)*

Hallak doesn't make flash chips. He builds the storage software that feeds data to GPUs, and his customers buy the SSDs. He opened with this:

> "Sometimes it scares me. We had a customer, one of these AI clouds, they said we're probably going to need about 500 petabytes over the next three years. Last week they came back to us and said we're going to need an extra two exabytes on top of that 500 petabytes."

For scale, two exabytes is 2,000 petabytes. That one customer went from 500 PB to 2,500 PB, a **5x jump in a single week of planning.** He also says the new AI data center needs "very large SSDs rather than 10 gig ethernet and old hard drives," with racks going from 10 kilowatts to 500 kilowatts. He runs a single cluster that is "multiple exabytes... delivering tens of terabytes per second."

**Why it matters.** This is operator-level support for Kumar's "flash is next" call. It also echoes the Solidigm co-CEO in issue #5 ("25 exabytes of incremental flash per gigawatt of AI capex"). If NAND tightens the way DRAM did, SanDisk is the purest way to own it.

### 6. The Micron preview: what the knowledgeable previews are watching

**[Futurum Equities Podcast, "Meta is up big on Muse. AMD is priced for no mistakes. Micron is next. | Ep 58"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DXGsE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnUgjCNltjL7mu8JRR5f6SUsQCkXYUG-2BykzmFmnTsW9jK25npIMvGeP4jCVh79TJP6Gv508vsOC19efas7ghpXl6i5e1z2QXJfKSSTcrXAVMSsHDZ4vKIt8X-2B3TSG2WBkkg-3D-3D)** (Sep 25) · Futurum Equities hosts · *PUNDIT/ANALYST (industry research firm)*

This was the most useful preview of the week, because it tells you what could make a good print *look* bad. First, the calendar trap:

> "Just know that there's going to be FUD that's generated when the headline hits on their guidance. Why is that? Q4 has 14 weeks in it. Q1 only has 13 weeks in it. People aren't going to normalize their guidance and they're going to jump to conclusion. Sequential growth is lighter than expected."

In other words, the quarter just reported had one extra week. Next quarter's guidance will look softer than the real trend unless you adjust for that.

The four things the Futurum hosts are watching:
- **Strategic customer agreements (SCAs):** "I would love to see... how that's progressing... and also want more commentary on how that makes the next downturn look different from previous cycles."
- **HBM4 share:** "Is it going to maintain that 20% market share as the market moves onto the next generation?"
- **Capex as a supply signal:** it will "tell me whether management still sees major supply response coming in 2028 or whether capacity is starting to arrive earlier."
- **Pricing power:** "Execution here is the highest possible price on every unit they're able to push out the door."

Their bottom line:

> "I haven't heard one plausible evidence that memory pricing power is eroding, not one."

And on the bear case that Micron's gross margin "might hit 75% in two years":

> "I'm like, are you kidding? That's still software margins on a supplier."

### 7. Micron's long-range numbers, laid out in full

**[Market News with Rodney Lake, "Episode 103 | Micron's AI Memory Boom and What Comes Next"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj9qRc3PncPYmxStIKNkZNheE-2Byvln-2BXnqozHdlE0RKet64z9HW03NkL6cU63FwEmjbCscFoXSqGaHhRuaAjJI-2FQNDHyvWx94GZ-2BSpyctBejQ-3D-3Dvhvt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrndGSkUkiWUnoTi04dn1L0KLeicGdCodI-2Fk17pAUgPpiro76FkD-2BgwiLUqRVZsOw5qnvak000mezF0D8S6Iczy89V5hLfiaBRMGAg5YrzqxwlqKUCZhfJZQiQ-2BTh0kQcWgA-3D-3D)** (Sep 24) · Rodney Lake, Director, GW Investment Institute · *PUNDIT/ANALYST (academic; GW's student fund holds a small Micron position)*

Lake walked through the whole history. It shows how far outside Micron's old range the numbers now are:

| Micron (fiscal years end late Aug) | Revenue | Gross margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $30.7B | ~45% | 30% |
| FY2023 | $15.5B | negative | -34% |
| FY2024 | $25B | 23% | 3.2% |
| FY2025 | $37B | ~40% | 23% |
| Trailing 12 months (to May 2026) | $90B | 72% | 56% |
| FY2026 projected | $129B | 80% | 64% |
| FY2027 projected | $249B | 86% | ~70% |

He also cites projected capex of **$28B (FY26) and $45B (FY27)** against free cash flow of **$50B and $134B.** (Free cash flow is the cash left after paying for new factories and equipment.) Market cap went from **$62B in 2022 to about $1 trillion today.** A useful check: $90B trailing plus a roughly $50.9B fiscal Q4 lands close to the $129B full-year projection. That matches the Futurum figure above.

His main point is the business-model shift:

> "They're definitely shifting from what has been boom and bust and really pricing on the spot market and short-term contracts to doing these take-or-pay contracts with people like NVIDIA, Microsoft, the hyperscalers, Amazon."

(A **take-or-pay** contract means the buyer pays for the agreed volume whether or not it takes delivery.) He says Micron is "sold out through 2026" with revenue visibility "out to 2029, 2030." But he gives an honest caveat: "if it falls off a cliff after that point and they can't sign additional contracts between now and then... that cliff is going to be meaningful." He also calls CXMT, the Chinese memory maker that IPO'd this summer, "also a big player now in high bandwidth memory." Earlier podcasts said CXMT makes only small quantities of HBM3E. Treat Lake's version as the more aggressive claim.

### 8. Syracuse: Micron's biggest factory site, seen from the ground

**[Wall Street Week (Bloomberg), "China's Trade Reckoning, Syracuse's Second Chance, North American Fracture, Humanoids in Healthcare"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhVHapmu5JjSp640-2FsPTDmiF38FOo8eIbxwXiKAbDcqrVCPsu1cCTDW0IxNxUdG-2Bx-2BYN-2Ft0zNt6dcRHYOeumUmUHamSjKjviHs0K7k4-2FY813A-3D-3DN2JR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnennhnZxlnyPUTr7ZqpQTcXWDK9Ih02KXao0tWTfnE0mneMoWrCYrOH9-2BfG1oCd68j4HlMEm4JfcVB-2F0P7AVS0QOSKXZ0I4rnRT3TCLg54gDeBD8kjSFK1LtHlJr7GRAqw-3D-3D)** (Sep 25) · Rob Simpson, CEO of CenterState CEO (regional economic-development group) · *OPERATOR-ADJACENT (local business leader)*

Not a pricing datapoint, but a reminder that new supply is real and slow. Simpson describes Micron's upstate New York fab campus: "9,000 direct jobs, 40,000 indirect jobs over the next 15 to 20 years, and more than $100 billion in capital investment." Construction "is now underway." The time frame, 15 to 20 years, is the point. This supply arrives in stages over a decade. It doesn't all hit the market at once.

## The debate: structural shortage or classic cycle?

This week the argument split into two different questions: **will prices keep rising into 2027**, and **can the buyers keep paying?**

### The structural case (shortage lasts)

- **Prices are still going up, and contracts are getting longer.** Samsung's $1.50 to $2.00/Gb ask is for *next year* ([AppleInsider](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg2YY903H3V0UxHWhHMf7XHvBRnfSUOmeeQhxFfQE-2Bc0lJ1fn7sVnYxeOYpzgopYx0NvpnBlQP7L4PCm9CQtgUmTmc7pcogd6TY1FqkHucofg-3D-3D2sAL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnVGsQ-2FV-2BMzhdG0PwDRbi6YnZ39yPvbry5RJSMMhqtA-2F4Y6hKs20TMhfrrTXRxOzWf1a0gRrh8r-2F7ZuH6FhiO7Yqw6M6Tnguru9kI1bwIIBs5v8a-2FjZEKcGvxMfvECAhhxQ-3D-3D)). An analyst on Fast Money "was raising his estimates because he found that ASPs in the August quarter, and he's expecting the November quarter, are actually still rising" ([Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3DYH02_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrneMqFcMhvfAbL-2FxIvwb9JbYMUT3HtKS8K4O5wxbaw4woQ0KOxQS1JpPyfh7uCAJoEj-2BkoYzmpouawAO9WFtA7HIP-2FtyDm0Tbdfxpl9yQhWPHYJmawAd-2B46uyaQAZPS1M4w-3D-3D)). ASP means average selling price.

- **The hard data is speeding up, not slowing.** Korean semiconductor exports are up about 250% ([Macro Mondays](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiF1bax9uIy3gdKk8SapZvZ9e03X4h6CRh0V2J4JqgUq1MjMaSxrsZRj8Ogh00EcewKhcdIA1mqmP70UrHUr21vXpPPVrh-2FlY-2BLVRZ5slr6pg-3D-3DT9ol_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnY05ZvnpxzdvuwHZi9m70o8ZVJhTTUZGC-2BZDzyLxzN6vKLqIPlo6NIfelbSpGMI0lLaA5mEWJ-2BhC6xcqROToNIaAkRq12Ps7oLtA-2BNyCDN-2B-2F-2BPLl-2FLiN0ppM9xFLbnvaqg-3D-3D)).

- **Supply physics.** The 3-to-1 trade ratio and two-to-three-year fab builds mean "I suspect we'll still be short" even after new capacity arrives mid-2027 ([Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DcdKc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnd-2F8t1ZJRnRkAtoBKJXGXmKplaJP-2B4wioQOLkS38ouvLeWgQsYdQ-2F-2FZ-2FUD1jaQw98WijRtgPhY9ApEXtOvgbOQTwluZ-2F4JwkhMyLK8DuHAjtSAEdrUaCgXhKC-2FYXLEkpig-3D-3D)).

- **The contract structure has changed.** Take-or-pay deals reaching out to 2029–2030 ([Rodney Lake](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj9qRc3PncPYmxStIKNkZNheE-2Byvln-2BXnqozHdlE0RKet64z9HW03NkL6cU63FwEmjbCscFoXSqGaHhRuaAjJI-2FQNDHyvWx94GZ-2BSpyctBejQ-3D-3D4rtQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnU0h-2BmFL7ZH317Ck3W6VK8obdaYx-2BVBoOvD1JmG7Tt8K-2BXVYJP16NbBHW-2BKYKb-2F5HnD3reqWnRnS16-2Fvhjx8-2BRuQ4Mjt46nAaRmqkvddr8n-2FT9REltmHafFAMTgKg-2FvajQ-3D-3D)) should make the next downturn shallower than past ones.

- **Demand keeps getting revised up.** Futurum says its 2030 CPU market forecast went from **$110B to $250B** between January and September, custom accelerators from "150 to like 385 billion," and cumulative 2030 capex expectations to "over 14 trillion" ([Futurum Equities](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DQcl8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnfNZ-2BI7qVu1LkYgGxc4xM9DMdIaa5HhyZvbH60bn4iWd90DSQdmfuLIA59-2F-2Fi8RaTZ2WRYF2-2B3p5eF-2FXr4v7DzXX8vpc8VhxVUd8UvGyqWIuzY0FkBVk5vlAWGyLsyKyEg-3D-3D)).

### The cyclical case (it rolls over)

- **The buyers' returns are fading.** Jim Chanos, a well-known short seller (an investor who bets on falling prices), says hyperscaler returns on incremental invested capital peaked in 2024 and "have been declining ever since, and at a rapid rate." That is the profit earned on each *new* dollar spent. If the trend holds, they "will have returns below their weighted average cost of capital sometime in mid-27, which I don't think the market is prepared for" ([RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3DFoHz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnVYq83rXUdbs22-2BjyxEl5V17fXPk7e4DuZqSVAE03m-2FzyI4AyR1hbhJSOq15GtzG0LUzOJ7XpzllrDwAgy-2FyPkSnpXm-2Bzcb8tABFZgEXdH8P0dUS68RGy5LNIdllAvZS4w-3D-3D)). In plain terms, each new data-center dollar would earn less than it costs to raise.

- **Credit is already tightening.** Chanos again: "Slowly but surely, the last three to four or five months, the credit markets have begun to tighten." He cites Goldman raising its five-year data-center spend estimate by "$2.5 to $3 trillion" to a total of "$10 to $12 trillion, which is about 6% of GDP," and calls that "really silly numbers." The same episode flagged an unconfirmed report of Oracle citing *force majeure* (an "act of God" delay clause) on Project Jupiter in New Mexico, part of Stargate, financed through a special-purpose vehicle. Chanos called it "an Enron-like structure" ([RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3DR-kO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnZU-2B3gSqV1UaAtoMy6buFmDM91wZvIQTckuN-2FWSA0b1e-2F9YYKs4wvKfVqOJSUnWH9ULLK-2Br7z0wR4RfSWHH94q0xexB0M2uRmCavOls7rVucYkCchfDbEJUebS561ZgS6g-3D-3D)).

- **Cheaper AI could mean fewer chips.** Gary Marcus, on the same show, says token prices have fallen "three or four orders of magnitude in two or three years." Where efficiency gains lead "really speaks against the data center... you're going to need fewer chips to do the things that most people need to do." (A token is roughly a word of AI output.)

- **Memory has always been cyclical.** Rodney Lake's own table shows revenue halving from FY22 to FY23. He admits, "if your thesis on AI changes dramatically... then maybe it moves back towards a cyclical business."

- **Macro pressure.** The Fed hiked last week. The 10-year hit 5.2% ([Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DWneW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnah40bInpu1K0ndR-2BFcsHsvcoK5Emp67-2F8e3NqMJhlwCvgfgCgRMwTkntlb4uCdLZEDHVjQDE3acy9jvKY4dycAAOsj14kPhHl76Refs8S34Agpsj-2Fv5UIwHrE3gQj0l4A-3D-3D)), and 30-year mortgages hit 7.5%. Higher rates lower what investors pay for far-off earnings. Investopedia's Caleb Silver said retail investors "were all in on the semi-trade with DRAM and others a few months back. They pulled way out of that" ([Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3D5xYn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnbNx7fl0zykQJ-2FJJiS8cNLI63aN-2BCPuzNXOvN1yU-2FW5SAu0D4PMm4ap13KkXkMdyhrYn6PYvGPgSFzkBW-2BnK3y366znxenyIH9gMhnBpXya9WmPJtZQ6PRnJtEXHHE4tgw-3D-3D)).

### Where they agree

Nobody on any podcast this week argued the shortage ends *this year*. The bulls' timeline for relief (late 2028 to early 2029) and the bears' timeline for trouble (hyperscaler returns breaking in mid-2027) are close together. That makes 2027 guidance and capex, starting with Micron on Wednesday, the real test.

---

## Stocks in play

**Micron (MU)**
- *Bull:* The quarter should be huge: ~$50.9B revenue, $31.49 EPS, 940% EPS growth. It trades at ~7x next year's earnings ([Fast Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3DInDw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnWen1h24V5F4Zs4K-2BzrtcN7nZ62Ei-2BNhEDjiK2vu-2FoubN7ukJuoeT4fg7FMpTR-2Bbm-2B920-2Bvkmi64mDRkU24QDPEYa8ly1J6OhGEP4FfDB-2Fhj-2FoY2BCBWX98dGz2T-2FsBjpA-3D-3D)) or a forward P/E of "eight" ([IBD, Sep 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjLfvrBIJDttdck1ri51d-2B-2BlTeLFtkZW0dKwl9VtECxG-2BqEf4NxYlRfkZ3GG6XRXH1U9m4yTxzFhVvxx1nTY9ovIQjCwHkewCzB-2BdniqJbnQ-3D-3DvkPY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnefgQK3jZZ6sDm8tOOFrFzldmB6UqwRGtY8AEstJfwLIstfCqRkKjlnZOZidPf1szo7l2663G9bal98BhDfhS3oTLPq2e1U4nCL6tCuwrYAvnipIJGJYaC3pOynx-2FGB0mw-3D-3D)). Take-or-pay contracts out to 2029–2030. Prices still rising into 2027. It broke above $1,000 on Sep 22, and IBD co-host Justin disclosed he'd been buying.
- *Bear:* IBD's Ed Carson: "If they say we're going to have one more good quarter and then boy, oh boy... the pricing is going to go down... you could imagine that really negative reaction for Micron and the... broader memory space" ([IBD, Sep 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjixBx5X4yCuFQoKqlUbWVLrijxm6jBEeGWnbj4Y9G4z1YZKmSiDPb3wxoLTVpo5TwPoOnut34tpg1IXZw-2BQdyGdKQTGphChd-2BDCFByqGNPlw-3D-3DHzXQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnRj9s-2B8nK1LgMbfbn1yEbk06TxwLJcNIQR5gaKd8OdYsdW7-2Fr9E6vbDN31BQdRPD6219jEEZyOsNc3-2BldlTG7m75VavOXqLX3Vjp3NjXM1CEyMwT-2FG4cArF00i10SnHGzg-3D-3D)). The 14-week vs 13-week quarter makes next-quarter guidance look lighter than it really is. HBM4 share (~20%) is at risk in the generation change. And a higher capex number could revive glut fears.
- *Next catalyst:* **FQ4 FY26 results (June–August 2026 quarter), Wednesday Sep 30 after the close.** Watch fiscal Q1 guidance on a 13-week-adjusted basis, SCA progress, HBM4 share, and FY27 capex (Rodney Lake's projection is ~$45B).

**SanDisk (SNDK)**
- *Bull:* The purest NAND stock, just as analysts start calling NAND next year's choke point ([Closing Bell Overtime](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DZTct_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnXYy3b3fx3vCJgcmdAkBNToye9xR0odmJS1sVUEnP8ynWRFm56mPc4g-2BHTnDb8QXmsRsAqanbowLYLm4qjsaYsc3o-2FplNZJhLvCzliqt-2F6QfGOp9yZ87rie2k-2FiLmNNS2A-3D-3D)), with operator support from VAST's exabyte-scale orders ([The MAD Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBiRflroc0LHwNOGDV89KQrb4KFtP0URndHDgoY2pZdycCRkVbnnjNYD0J6-2FC-2Fgsx-2FSUJf6KkjEdlyNKWTZHUrqkdlYTuXf7a1HhKIuaI0pQ-3D-3DswWD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrna5SrLDBKNmCy3-2FLT9JqqivpE9ax7-2FjRSlqjGHz5W1hdzuAB41LHN-2FDJzRe9J4-2BF4L1rAaK-2FkQ8L4wRH34npcLRw70vcX10N95HVyEANTaoYDTEgiUQapHcKUAGx6zBlHg-3D-3D)). IBD co-host Justin: "SanDisk, I think, looks just as good" as Micron, as a way to get memory exposure "without the earnings coming up" ([IBD, Sep 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjLfvrBIJDttdck1ri51d-2B-2BlTeLFtkZW0dKwl9VtECxG-2BqEf4NxYlRfkZ3GG6XRXH1U9m4yTxzFhVvxx1nTY9ovIQjCwHkewCzB-2BdniqJbnQ-3D-3DX9YR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnUEYsF9yKldc1b4KqNFbL6wMQQb0SwMyPxBClA-2FMbUZhkFEEeZufv-2B8AnfRKbbAS-2FI6YRGfh67e1RmSCQ8b4BrdlGPs3NbvC48o9D8v-2BGn341Wq-2Farg-2BRyg1GIBx-2FJS6pg-3D-3D)).
- *Bear:* It trades in sympathy with Micron. A cautious Micron guide hits SanDisk too ("your cohorts, their earnings can certainly influence what happens to you"). And NAND has historically been more cyclical than DRAM.
- *Next catalyst:* Micron's NAND commentary on Sep 30. No SanDisk-specific catalyst was named in this week's podcasts.

**Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)**
- *Bull:* It's setting the price. The $2.00/Gb ask for 1H27 shows Samsung is "asking" for increases, not "offering" them ([AppleInsider](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg2YY903H3V0UxHWhHMf7XHvBRnfSUOmeeQhxFfQE-2Bc0lJ1fn7sVnYxeOYpzgopYx0NvpnBlQP7L4PCm9CQtgUmTmc7pcogd6TY1FqkHucofg-3D-3DBFRp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnXOXCY9Itc-2BlBVPceP-2FUObN830dI3Oif1VAoQqMZaQEcAYqemvTym1lu7h-2BckZYW87igpL8-2BJ4QgoyxdRxkaPqZVCQ19ggin4dnpRAVtITNd-2FQnJ-2FWsYA20LUMsL6E0LIg-3D-3D)). Korean chip exports are up about 250%.
- *Bear:* Samsung and SK Hynix are now "like half the market" in Korea, per Kopernik's Dave Iben, who pointedly does *not* own them ([The Meb Faber Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhwy2SEEhRSe9psNZG-2BaXeZK2TVm1XAjfcXbulT7U5ShsWollPyQ6L1cCtETZvXT0xYHbhog9s3cUjU1-2FNb3RG8eU8W1-2FlO-2BdJY7em8gKuJ9A-3D-3DB7jf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrneYT3IYNKQDfkuYD1gJ6Wd3TGt632ooN-2FLQg9A93gjcrfXxaBdChNQhl-2BtxMAUbncmRKkDdmMW-2BIHsAMOnvOq6qyiCT0aN8tcqhpqQWWuUix72mp-2F2zliAQEOqkxvtuCmw-3D-3D)). That is concentration risk. China fab-license renewal could come up in US-China talks ([Macro Mondays](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiF1bax9uIy3gdKk8SapZvZ9e03X4h6CRh0V2J4JqgUq1MjMaSxrsZRj8Ogh00EcewKhcdIA1mqmP70UrHUr21vXpPPVrh-2FlY-2BLVRZ5slr6pg-3D-3DaFlI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnTnNyrWIgibT2UjSAqV6l4Bbk0Vhrl9ebIQFNRPtaYHNTjXuwLQFTyhEFZnVjMmJp762m0bV6UqHRkRb8HsbnhKwJjhj3XOCAtpD10N5ET9dOBdjy3feX8bxR0e0K-2BzeAA-3D-3D)).
- *Next catalyst:* Whether other phone makers accept the $2.00/Gb term that Apple signed. Also the full-month September Korean export print.

**SK Hynix (000660 KS)**
- *Bull:* The same Korean export surge. Largest HBM share per earlier issues.
- *Bear:* Same China-license and Korea-concentration risks. No company-specific news this week; last week's Intel-Ohio talks got no follow-up on any podcast.
- *Next catalyst:* Any Ohio/Intel follow-up; US-China summit outcomes on Korean fab licenses.

**NVIDIA (NVDA)**
- *Bull:* Futurum notes NVIDIA trades around **15x 2027 earnings vs AMD at 40x**. Chanos himself calls it "a relatively cheap stock" that "control[s] the chessboard" ([RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3D5N5e_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrndzVl6xycqk3WdVqow9XQedGq-2FrxGcdmROTCt-2FiImSThwgyqxcHXWrcvv72HJMYSPDWxCVpSQGD5FpoF5kUgLEDuhnRdMzYxqLNW-2B27ncGIeo-2FIhXRfUiporQ-2B-2BOSQzihw-3D-3D)).
- *Bear:* A "$5.5 trillion market cap company... trading exactly where it was six months ago" (Dan Nathan, RiskReversal). Its customers are the hyperscalers whose returns Chanos says are fading. And memory costs have already cut into its gross margin (issue #9).
- *Next catalyst:* Micron's HBM commentary as a read on NVIDIA's supply costs.

**AMD (AMD)**
- *Bull:* The "entrant competitor that has everything to gain." Its CPUs may be the engine behind Meta's Muse agent ([Futurum Equities](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DSBtV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnTPtZ85Csci20mDO5Qaqxh-2BsmzfKT9tPGhZAVm5imdr5hHOxk5NBPRcHAGNnM2qHwRduyhrpJ6Dm4FYPwpKX0-2FtSa1oiGadS0UcaxKqCs2hhhB0-2FHbPl6fmvVeek1wUDtg-3D-3D)).
- *Bear:* "Priced for no mistakes": ~40x 2027 earnings. Meta and OpenAI warrants (~160M shares, per the hosts) mean more shares and diluted per-share earnings. And Helios, AMD's first rack-scale system, is "not monetized yet."
- *Next catalyst:* Helios ramp evidence; HBM allocation commentary from Micron.

**Qualcomm (QCOM) and Apple (AAPL)**, the buyers paying the memory bill
- *Qualcomm:* passing memory costs through "over the next several months"; pitching "high bandwidth compute" packaging for data-center memory bandwidth ([Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhTpmsunIshVUedSAgU1qLaheR2ynKjWt-2FjN-2BUF2LQoAX6lOdZTYlfg7bbYu7kXV5QYTGN0MlArThV0mhSZqaHpXw-2F2Xac5clUjvX3s3wslGA-3D-3DoLJC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnVTiQPyjXnGP-2FXOY2An0HeX-2BAKrDjKQH2be0DJYydskfM0ROhDOdzHoip3Zc5lNVRXmTN1lH3drp5rd3l0dYdU90AHuYtBTYNTWDNlGak33mtQKAmIHx9GfFFBTXKYhzHQ-3D-3D)).
- *Apple:* iPhone +$100 (more for higher storage tiers); accepted Samsung's $2.00/Gb for early 2027 ([AppleInsider](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg2YY903H3V0UxHWhHMf7XHvBRnfSUOmeeQhxFfQE-2Bc0lJ1fn7sVnYxeOYpzgopYx0NvpnBlQP7L4PCm9CQtgUmTmc7pcogd6TY1FqkHucofg-3D-3D0mKw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrne-2BTpn-2Fdcy2YFKuBIRqoN00E7vLQfQGWFoURqLX-2Fjijaa4hKudQxrTfS2GaTMWT18j5ZIj1kDR1W-2FiGaUX7ixHGU9azdIEbmGGfvPZ2R95oDNaEE0u4Lid-2Bg0SJTW1G3BQ-3D-3D)).
- *Next catalyst:* December-quarter iPhone demand at the new prices. Qualcomm's first data-center revenue in its fiscal Q1 2027 (December quarter).

## Read-throughs

**Memory equipment (Advantest, BESI, Camtek, KLA, Lam, AMAT).** None of these names came up in a memory context on any podcast this week. The only relevant signal is indirect. Kumar's comment that new capacity starts arriving "middle of next year" and Micron's Syracuse construction are both spending that turns into tool orders. Micron's FY27 capex guide on Wednesday is the number that matters for this group. Rodney Lake projects about $45B, up from about $28B. Futurum explicitly says capex will signal "whether management still sees major supply response coming in 2028."

**Packaging and substrates (CoWoS, hybrid bonding).** No CoWoS or hybrid-bonding discussion this week. The nearest thing is Qualcomm's "high bandwidth compute," which Palkhiwala called "a very novel packaging technology" aimed at memory bandwidth. It's another sign that packaging is where the memory bottleneck gets fought.

**GPU makers (NVIDIA, AMD).** The debate shifted from chip supply to customer financing. Chanos's argument (hyperscaler returns below their cost of capital by mid-2027, credit tightening, SPV-financed data centers) targets the demand behind every HBM stack. On The Business Brew, Silicon Data's Steve Hou said "over 50% of the cost of a data center today is, uh, you know, uh, chips and memory." He also said CME is launching cash-settled futures on H100 and B200 rental prices, so the market can price and hedge compute directly ([The Business Brew](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0aSHvFf4bGTstT4nKNvvzms-2F2Rzk94i-2FNTEqU1EF4NU7B94yRbG7y36uIdtHCnYRloYHJ-2FcX4m7ZEfafGcaB9VnXt0HzjWGIFrZxkoXR-2BAQ-3D-3D-UEn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnXhUH98o6C4TiaIX2S68r91fXp11xuPARb-2B44GJxU9vuDw6O95sGqfvdwr-2FpdQHRQ5dyGTKe7lpE-2BuuK7NXf9CukSno0rwgjV9DfDGRogUcTJ-2BqIFqjTnfN-2Bmta72D6Y0w-3D-3D)). That's a new way to see stress in real time, if it comes.

**PC and handset makers facing rising memory costs.** The strongest read-through of the week, confirmed from both sides. Apple raised iPhone prices $100 and signed on for higher 2027 DRAM pricing. Qualcomm is passing costs on. The AppleInsider hosts note storage is being hit too: "Buying SSDs is way more expensive than it used to be... now you need a loan to buy that much storage." Watch for other Android makers either matching Apple's $2.00/Gb or cutting memory per phone to hold price points.

---

## What changed vs last week (issue #11, Sep 19)

- **Stocks recovered.** Last week the "AI slowdown" scare hit memory stocks. This week the Nasdaq made new records, and Micron broke back above $1,000 with a 5% "stock of the day" move on Sep 22 ([IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjLfvrBIJDttdck1ri51d-2B-2BlTeLFtkZW0dKwl9VtECxG-2BqEf4NxYlRfkZ3GG6XRXH1U9m4yTxzFhVvxx1nTY9ovIQjCwHkewCzB-2BdniqJbnQ-3D-3D3p_M_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWyHew9mrc6dnjr8zab12P4jjHdwK3mQ02HZsNxC-2FKrnfliiQQlcTM4epGUE3I87YuLKFZbErf6JAVxHqb9Oytnepbz4vwuoHW8a7OE5ownJYuZDpv2-2Bc45ccv-2BrqYXPqIB0EIO1TEyyr9F56cu0OqAIbLIUjFLhdVNwYXLtE6T1g-3D-3D)).

- **We finally got a price per gigabit.** Samsung's $1.50 to $2.00/Gb for 1H27 is the first dated contract price in the newsletter's run. It partly fills our longest-standing gap, with the caveat that it came secondhand from journalists.

- **A new theme: NAND as the next choke point** (Kumar, backed by VAST's exabyte orders).

- **Korean exports got stronger** (semis +~250% y/y in the first 20 days of September).

- **Operators: a small step up.** Last week had no executive on memory at all. This week had two adjacent operators (Qualcomm's CFO, VAST's CEO). Still no memory-maker executive.

- **The bear case shifted from "AI slowdown" to "financing breaks."** That's the Chanos returns-on-capital timeline plus a 5.2% 10-year yield after a Fed hike.

- **China came back, only in passing.** After two weeks with zero mentions, CXMT got one line (Rodney Lake). Steno raised Korean fab-license risk in US-China talks.

- **Last week's threads went quiet:** no podcast follow-up on SK Hynix and Intel Ohio, the 100% tariff threat, or the Qatar helium claim.

---

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