# Micron Faces a Memory Pricing Test as Bears Say Half of AI Chips Sit Idle - Semiconductor Podcast Briefing - Week of September 25, 2026

> Semiconductor Podcast Briefing for the week of September 19 to September 25, 2026: podcasts previewed Micron's September 30 report and whether memory prices keep rising, Broadcom guided to 93% growth as Google spreads custom-chip work, Dan Ives put chip demand at 13 times supply, Ed Zitron argued about half of AI chips sold sit in warehouses, and the Trump-Xi summit produced no chip deal.

## Semiconductor Podcast Briefing

### Week of September 25, 2026: Micron Faces a Memory Pricing Test as Bears Say Half of AI Chips Sit Idle

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Chip stocks spent the week trying to climb out of a hole. In mid-September the group was still about 20% below its June peak. Meanwhile the podcasts argued about two things: whether AI chip demand is as strong as the numbers say, and whether Micron can keep memory prices rising when it reports next Wednesday.

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## TL;DR: Things That Mattered This Week

* **Micron reports fiscal Q4 on Wednesday, September 30, after the close.** The consensus is about **$51 billion in revenue**, with profit expected up roughly **940% year over year** and revenue up **351%**. The big question on every show was whether management says memory prices will keep rising. ([Telltales](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhZ-2FJ5Ok-2Fe5MZWr8Fddfoy7Q4SbetImquvFhIIDk2s-2B7KIvkE0p879W4Olb2E9MEMiGDHnSVtoK21Ay2A28VpWA22leNdV-2Ff5RaRnoOvVHzjA-3D-3DvBc0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke8iM2Jq4YxSHMPPaFBwwRmGAzh1R-2Bf9rtZBW0mpQgIKAUBCwu9mSzP9sFqXXeUmtzVHxLGWlykHCvzDmZ-2FWU2KYH6K5Ew4o2I3shIN-2BdiFntJ8LIEMEvAPNFNOvoNvm-2FJ-2FC9QKb-2FubbjKUlFWIrRqXQ-3D), [Stock Market Today With IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjixBx5X4yCuFQoKqlUbWVLrijxm6jBEeGWnbj4Y9G4z1YZKmSiDPb3wxoLTVpo5TwPoOnut34tpg1IXZw-2BQdyGdKQTGphChd-2BDCFByqGNPlw-3D-3DF_Yy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke1DpnmvEB1J29ejo04rhM5V-2BfNIiLakIhIM9MYtPFl8xjXmACOlSS22XMEFPCeVqGbaWzKhi8iSPQzz8ThhmCucOKgEGfbl6bx6taflxoStY4tvqaIefs-2Bggrvag7Bpbm1TTqlWfl7LpyHoJmkjujpo-3D))
* **Memory prices still look strong.** A CNBC host said an analyst was raising his Micron estimates after finding that memory selling prices rose in the August quarter and are expected to rise again in the November quarter. Analyst Harsh Kumar expects the memory shortage to outlast the new factories due in mid-2027. ([CNBC's "Fast Money"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3DCAlw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkezG-2BDIKUhhOr6Sy3PKuIbf142tYVyvULT54NFbICdQlZc-2BTcEDfZkeFP4Rn4CYecs9R43PpMB3NOTBHChkXaNYhWod31kbPXSePQK8qBVSf05UAZ8RD-2B6GaYpc-2BvAn6Xf8CYa6w0qhPugdmrKIy0i5g-3D), [Closing Bell](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3D5zR4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke7S4IP0bl57gI-2Fo3hq6g8lw95LglRnCUDRw4oWz6Qk4N5uUq1KOA6HKHnAt-2ByDFbA2Kv80jgHnXZf35std6GqJHu-2B4Y4z01NvJaMzNWMCyalqqqRN6W4j9-2FBVok6kPBz6aQ9UmwWE41bH9-2FT-2BtSWWGU-3D))
* **Broadcom is growing faster as it gets bigger.** Fiscal Q3 revenue was **$29.6 billion (+86%)** and it is guiding to **$34.8 billion (+93%)** for Q4. Even so, the stock has fallen back because Google is spreading some of its custom chip work to other suppliers. ([The 7investing Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT30blD3z-2BNLXaMWKrH9WSfJnec8rnaylZcdEe8xXs26s-2BjZO-2FTkZQDCYM19j-2Fwi-2FB7syVGPKppRG5AyPr7nTk1t9M1feDWiN1ZHGRi15hig-3D-3DXseo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke7ckkcFX1RAOsX4OWA8XtnSvaQc4rAe9tH3IlYPRE5VbBRaQX5LX1dTaZrAF1DtiJ0y4IpDl5TO-2FK7qDUtcyZMALl6-2BNW3hK9u4SLcYx31GjIjl54N6a2MKhOTrnbLGHUuc2V6gdwm0DUmIgWIzrW4o-3D))
* **Dan Ives puts AI chip demand at 13 times supply**, and does not expect supply to catch up until early 2029. ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhM0Hl-2BncBjoHRoz9QCN2ldo5ZCJYljo6yiar4-2FvcFoq93xrSQ6yBytSyFBGGghKxBFRDZRePrJEba251JbEwmrZQWjycXMK76xAZgUPwn73w-3D-3D7-VX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkewgCeGYOjh-2B9iWQgg7Dt7ekEjG8K8B5ca10dHnrgN7fERVeXjZHvFx7354F7zDxnzACcRCYSWM9KzjRRuWOd1jcq0wD3pwH-2FntprPLGQN0UJSoICR6bIHl-2FOnvip9IgbyfzRllXsxcxr5fmY5Dr06dk-3D))
* **Jensen Huang's pitch:** building a one-gigawatt AI data center costs **$50 billion**, and it can be rented out for **$40 to $50 billion a year**. ([Hard Fork](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3DJ7fv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke9O9i4VF3W18iARTwPuklpeuKYZSIao6uYXG02FGmvIeivopuglVAplWPVeT9QyQ1WRHaSllhTx98xIsvB766LntgRrLf0JXjtCO2vvYe-2BrxVF7p-2FDxOW0JFneQrT6mYuQ65VpkF-2BbAesuHGYJ-2Fx7N8-3D))
* **The main bear case this week:** Ed Zitron estimates about **half of all AI chips sold are sitting in warehouses or unpowered buildings**, with **$374 billion or more** in "construction in progress" on hyperscaler balance sheets. ([Better Offline](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3DYhCx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke5uyj6b3jYcniO3C88sDuKwVY-2FbavY9-2F95l-2FNpLi4SDj5vvwXC2Kb8KPFHdvmLufqWk86Bv1zB4VnjPxLmqqeJf3YQc5QHxUg1FBypRsP8Q-2BE1xmCMIonIy3eWILE9tM9QNa7TS0RB-2FKA8AEruIk2ME-3D))
* **Nvidia at about 14 times 2027 earnings** is a "cheap stock," says Chris Grisanti of MAI Capital Management. ([The Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiaAhgBvzT2crMejL-2B2WPLEElOtzXsuzcq5L6ynuJB4hML67cTkFT-2BjDrQRQhAOVKQDeRkx1cg0S1z6MSuZ3SMhGiqw3IJx9Fem-2BjMD8X9W8g-3D-3DQTar_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fkey179IrmV74vXY6bd636bFOxJugrCrQpf68SfpK-2F-2B3J6nvIu5r-2B5BCxq3LU7DeS5c5ohmiDdErxOkYWhPPI0BsXjztzpgWKcnruHPdJOgggCXW5OoK6f7uuZREMKpltjkUXDTam-2F-2BPPJXWMhPbUYyt0-3D))
* **The Trump-Xi summit produced no chip deal.** Goldman estimates chip-equipment makers such as Lam Research and Applied Materials get **30% or more of their sales from mainland China**, which leaves them exposed if tensions rise. ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8Ev7ruNMFFRKu0LCAi8u4sI9Y4Sml9CIonXZ2bEKZJZ-2F8h6BXAruSP0o21nK7POwbBWWMPW0joYt0W9YlHWXYN2oPLYD3M-2FR11KJBIEbeBw-3D-3DCPM3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkezCGc-2FHKZ0IQFsI9gstZE9f6V6UFOY4N9G-2BDOUX0-2FWPGCXGURjHV93YlsTX-2BZ-2BWQPx7PpHajlGzsdSImUmWNYwz9gcjMGhc4XBcmLbHwV1JyN4cfpiWYyHY8cWFJpUD3OwhFnOqj6jRiMSqZtHT753o-3D))
* **Jim Chanos says returns on new hyperscaler investment peaked in 2024.** On their current path, he says those returns fall below the companies' cost of capital by mid-2027. ([RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3DATvS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkezJ5uX-2FNx-2FGpDDw23yK5osG2-2FNypxkR-2BwEv5hjlqD3St6K-2BZD21O5N8cS1nn0DLp6hkivDa3PU-2F1gFYlOLtvbGGMjH6n8w8Whd47YPe-2F6VlhT3keIH7mdpEExYJtAOLlfH0Ps5beJydZe0CG2btsMMM-3D))

---

## 1. AI Chip Demand and Hyperscaler Spending (NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL)

"Hyperscalers" are the giant cloud companies: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and Oracle. Their "capex" (capital expenditure, meaning spending on buildings and equipment) is the money that ends up in chipmakers' revenue.

### The bull view: demand still far exceeds supply

On The Compound and Friends (Sep 18), Wedbush's **Dan Ives** gave the most aggressive demand numbers of the week ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhM0Hl-2BncBjoHRoz9QCN2ldo5ZCJYljo6yiar4-2FvcFoq93xrSQ6yBytSyFBGGghKxBFRDZRePrJEba251JbEwmrZQWjycXMK76xAZgUPwn73w-3D-3DR0_r_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkeyHggmj5EhAgqESCmxFwdkMeeaBP-2BDHhnCm9jyhgKL1adWSz0iVNf9fh7DGtLKJjJbrUl-2FuBQjOJLXQ2zku6IfR23oqsdhu5S0LtP3O0vAI-2FBSNkzOnOjdHFgTA-2BIBKy2A9dVpI-2Ff4lnp5Gyu4xAfh0-3D)):

> "Demand to supply right now for chips is called 13 to 1... There are 13 orders for every one chip that can be produced... You're not going to have true equilibrium probably till early 2029 at this pace. And for every dollar spent on CapEx there's a five to six dollar multiplier across the rest of tech."

* Ives thinks investors are "underestimating earnings by probably 25-30% in the next few years."
* He expects **1,200 to 1,500 data centers** to be built over the next five to six years, even if 10% to 15% are voted down locally.
* On China, he says US chips are "two to three years ahead," and that Nvidia's "third rate chip is still probably a year ahead of where Huawei is."

### Jensen Huang: think of AI computers the way airlines think of planes

Nvidia's CEO appeared on The Ezra Klein Show, which was republished in the Hard Fork feed on Sep 25 ([Hard Fork](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3Du9Wp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke5ynYJOb3UQwtbCJHULHIerI3w6LvzdNTdcuivqhrM9NPdnOBBkfVeBx644WwzVPxr41bVjdo1lIGcMS4-2BDwNZIlcxhobNHHyn1Czs8GuIe27e85EuWNe7MXWlv9KfSvzWUBf6TSvWdFSHmgnD0iH0w-3D)). He argued that Nvidia hardware is becoming an investable asset class in its own right:

> "$50 billion to build a one gigawatt data center, one gigawatt AI factory. And you can rent it for 40 to $50 billion per year."

He compared Nvidia hardware to airplanes. Both are general-purpose and durable, and they can be resold: "United Airlines doesn't use it. American Airlines will use it." Because Nvidia keeps improving the software that runs on older chips, he said, "the useful life of our compute is much longer." If lenders accept that, Nvidia-powered data centers could borrow money more cheaply.

He also answered the charge that Nvidia creates its own demand by investing in customers. "We can't really create demand," he said. The demand is real, he argued, because "$500 billion of venture funding are coming in," and all of those startups need computing power.

### Valuation: bulls say Nvidia is cheap

* **Chris Grisanti** (Chief Market Strategist, MAI Capital Management) on The Exchange (Sep 18): Nvidia trades at "about 14 times" his own estimate of calendar 2027 earnings, which he thinks is too low. "You're buying the stars of the A.I. world for less than... you're paying for Coca-Cola or Pfizer." He rejected the idea that hyperscalers will cut spending. He pointed to Google Cloud growing **82% year over year**: "If you had a business growing at 82 percent a year, you'd beg, borrow and steal to invest more there... and NVIDIA is standing there with their hand out." ([The Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiaAhgBvzT2crMejL-2B2WPLEElOtzXsuzcq5L6ynuJB4hML67cTkFT-2BjDrQRQhAOVKQDeRkx1cg0S1z6MSuZ3SMhGiqw3IJx9Fem-2BjMD8X9W8g-3D-3D0udP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke03nUu-2F14K0lA8ptYsspdPmfNDgG7t3p2-2FxjYghjN7-2BnodMKB-2B7QSS-2FfuNrD7rPtH-2FHbC1nyvsIwG-2FUK3liolBdBXfzJ52REzO8WW-2FF7T0ebPRX63ZP3nYTbQexPJMBovEJ3YtQFlKNaiA0We3WSvyg-3D))
* **A Franklin Templeton portfolio manager** on Wealthion (Sep 24): "NVIDIA trades somewhere around 20 times." Cisco traded around 100 times earnings in 2000. "You can't tell me it's a bubble when the big companies in the space... trade at multiples below the tape." ("The tape" is his term for the overall stock market.) ([Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT62ELYVfsRBihhz1ZFq6U4lUW8yioq45qpWbrVLxwDGtcMpf-2FJKfOSvDcVLRJNo17CHy6V-2F0c6ZEBsjYWWoKZrtgmoe0wx6Kv5wJ15iB2Hw-3D-3DCEaN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fkez4zrPVoCrKoKuflTuRBc-2Fb5yJDVEP1KQQPFZcJ-2FmkcMx2z1EgLGewHH-2BMOqje-2Bv3CYnZ8qIBm-2BXhQsLX2COF7ogNniK-2BAKlZhl73WaYJX-2Fr56cKxE8I2O2CtQiwYkTk-2BFmwaAl-2BaXW-2FK7GnecBsGko-3D))
* **The dissent:** a host on InvestTalk (Sep 24) noted that Nvidia earnings are expected to grow from **$4.77 to $15.74** per share, which puts the stock at about 15 times forward earnings. He read that low multiple as a warning rather than a bargain. His concerns were "circular financing," where Nvidia invests in AI companies that then buy Nvidia chips, and hyperscalers moving to cheaper open-source models. His conclusion was that the group has "lost its momentum." ([InvestTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOix0QgnPBVBgwNSKb1UkVNoHTS4o-2BgO9nigmORjOTTz0tfTI3hpNqB1KvV-2FyjuoEHqmQ-2BcXgCCH9jFUe9TqDimrUxnqLqLvqBftTOFxAGC5pA-3D-3D38qq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkezrFU3-2F4fcAOTRwJl0faHYGJL5m3RSyJk0Scp8omZ-2FF5me1DLL-2B2ne9Pg0lZOjdZ4sv-2BMrPOKF6w9SVkBcsMVyUi-2BizVfdvExoJ3lYcu7qfAQG8NmvbhhQG3cDXdnsGOAtQElFGsm6sHQd2CYFbuqXc-3D))

### AMD: priced for perfection

* On the Futurum Equities Podcast (Sep 25), the hosts said the market treats Nvidia "as the leader and the incumbent that has everything to lose" and AMD "as the entrant competitor that has everything to gain." The episode title called AMD "priced for no mistakes." ([Futurum Equities Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3D3UFq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkewK7jsW4k3sA-2FIyjIRXbf3QpDg8nL6b8M4RNP77NGej1-2F0hOZmbkrB36YxZtZuL49Wj4lQVBWed9Bz2yEGUgeyo5qf5xyjVpMWipffShW2tB6hy2WauCnhJbVmtg7whTuHyFY-2BCOP7WwzPNEqQSS3GY-3D))
* **Mike Coe** on Fast Money (Sep 25) agreed: AMD "is probably the name that... looks like the multiple is still anticipating a lot of good news rather than pricing in the good news that's already here." ([CNBC's "Fast Money"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3DMvem_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke8G7bU9tgVKK5SdZsVK4jlj2WJe0B-2FrnZT0DdIOkEMzho7PekCzqRI5xAPkesz6MEOkaN8pnlhjtZBAON44-2FzxpbyBgaADj6gTAT4JgZJ29PUU9dyNcTBibL2evOg-2F-2FXxJxq0znQv-2BFpAJMtL3BD-2BWo-3D))
* The Futurum hosts also raised their forecasts. On September 18 they lifted their 2030 estimate for CPU spending (CPUs are general-purpose processors) from **$110 billion to $250 billion a year**, and put cumulative AI capex through 2030 at **more than $14 trillion**. The reason given was the compute load from Meta's new Muse AI agent. ([Futurum Equities Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DmcM2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke2kzWAJtqGutYY5YKnva-2FKHDizqWfTan13cz59jYWO7ThsoEPTFh-2BYjmUixJZgXToft3nKXY3XpMV4An0LjsISZ14iPQtrqOWPvLUoWjmBUm-2Fgf8QhMxm1je7nsTJb4CzHDOyp7P-2Bd5YmAAS0pNBCsk-3D))

### Broadcom and custom chips

Custom chips (also called ASICs or XPUs) are processors designed for one customer's workload, such as Google's TPU. Broadcom is the leading designer.

* On The 7investing Podcast (Sep 25), a 7investing analyst went through Broadcom's quarters. Revenue growth sped up from **29%** in fiscal Q1 to **48%** in Q2 and **86%** in Q3, when revenue reached **$29.6 billion**. Q3 free cash flow was **$13.7 billion**, or 46% of revenue. Q4 guidance is **$34.8 billion**, which would be **93%** growth. "That's not supposed to happen." He estimates that about **30% of the more than $1 trillion** the world spends on chips in 2026 goes to custom processors. He also cited **$60 billion** of spending per gigawatt of data center capacity this year, up from $40 billion last year. His explanation for the recent share-price weakness: "A lot of people think it's because they don't have the sole supply of the TPUs." ([The 7investing Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT30blD3z-2BNLXaMWKrH9WSfJnec8rnaylZcdEe8xXs26s-2BjZO-2FTkZQDCYM19j-2Fwi-2FB7syVGPKppRG5AyPr7nTk1t9M1feDWiN1ZHGRi15hig-3D-3DgCSs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkewlEWsPNcgv3RjvdPy4dsQdmljxyqSRdatKEXBC7RhAYuBH8-2B0zgcPX69-2BcM9sZFZ4K2V0mv0NtU9hkt9c1dgsnrRiN6V5wfx2oJV3grXRa0EwfHYB55MKkIReXIojI83EbCNZBmWvLJHuLNbiezOYA-3D))
* On The Morning Filter (Sep 24; episode title "Why Broadcom Stock Is Worth $650"), an equity analyst said custom chips took about **10%** of AI computing spending in 2025, against 90% for GPUs, mostly Nvidia's. She expects that share to reach "about 25% or maybe even 30% in the next five years." In her view, custom chips make sense only for "the largest of large scale customers," because they need "billions of dollars of co-investment," and they are used mainly for inference, meaning running a model after it has been trained. "It's a and not an or type situation": customers buy both custom chips and Nvidia GPUs. ([The Morning Filter](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjXOWC8f-2F3BaIfwOUGDu9nAx9PuZ5MHhUsngaqz0tEwVXUz6u4TiumN1a19O5jHqQBQa0NKqz7gZ6padlBV0DB2cbCrm1bWDsX6N2dr3i5DTg-3D-3DEUCJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke09Yp7I62TZ522mQJWMjHWbaVqmZfDSZL7awBXERfXAfZtJsOfMIKZcDnG2TA1i-2BzbogR9mCeRt5C7bTRjGn5yejR8JqYd8X1o1OwW5KKLckTn8vwWH5KDQdoF9TACVSDTYkN7bn08-2B4CGxLZ7Tdkss-3D))

### Hyperscaler spending plans mentioned on the podcasts

* **Meta:** 2026 capex guidance of **$130 to $145 billion**, with analysts projecting close to **$200 billion** in 2027. ([The Investor's Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhFTuY9QweOaVzdm1AYhAijnyZLpa6H51d-2BfY7XlvVz0-2FiiqHArWnFmkvLNcNXRF6WVoiH3CEaSteMlcLcdXmRmU6DKki-2FDCNM28QkGfFn8zw-3D-3D62oo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke9Ic-2FNRgwUsLMcxgcfHV6-2BrjQ4wrDVmi3mpoWM2Qexmh8h9z4YSHYGeSS8GOKDlNTS8gX8sa2h8lrbxKDN0g-2B1Woa5wIrI367V6pW-2F4D1dO7fFcO-2BI44ISyumuXWNCR0LgAW7q2Nim4gnVDEfx1esBA-3D)) A Bloomberg Intelligence guest expects Meta to "raise AI CapEx in 2027." ([Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiaahQM5lup54lt-2BQbe-2BO3rIbk7DCcL9xYpxEllJta-2BbZKEvofBAvQIEueHWs5X6-2BzdUaDevXoRLC9ovOFByT88-2Bkc6GJK-2FwZpk0sw2nvqtzg-3D-3DM0ew_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke73DKmrRj42ZS1zlj4l6XoQDZLUzMqpX2IvkcMFkbAv6eJLgN0Q6fVI-2Fb5mZonNDNBWq4So2QIyi0pSsctSrUeHtXqRQTC98Jr7OUBSm-2FKt00IQBxoMO69AfKvkIYM51D-2F2kEnykNWQPoF70J02qdsM-3D))
* **Alphabet:** about **$200 billion** on data centers in 2026. It has stopped buybacks and raised more than $100 billion to fund the spending, per Shawn O'Malley and Kyle Grieve. They also noted Alphabet's return on invested capital is the second lowest since it went public. ([The Intrinsic Value Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhGzQMOGWKChMf06tttRUYIifdgT30iJfWyycofsi9CTkyqIotj0KEWQPPjBCKm26V1nc-2FGUZhQGJzQOYn-2F5LC1f-2B8ZRkzeh9ugdTKFQDpSow-3D-3DCMtb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2BmXfB9Bbez09jnUnJxxQL8dd2LWWvA98OF3Et94F0e4Lu74xb-2BLdSEONsXE-2FGIQ-2FoQNcW6-2BkfS4-2BUaqhouEg4BkV-2F1naKUDOb659HhRZnMT3yPUThTvDD2O-2F487FtXnurSSU6MhejZlFzRKBS6RjQg-3D))
* **Industry-wide:** JPMorgan expects about **$1 trillion** of capex in 2026, and Goldman raised its 2027 global estimate to **$1.2 trillion**. ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3DA2Lx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke3MJwPfL8ctBEpuh9he7A8k09rWdd56igFDRZ9xKNZ77UGGy1AN05Qu-2Fuh0k0lw7cg3FyPt0BMQ6awVzP4QrRZ9u69yyR1Tn1iig46VPSpdTH0lgKRTD4SNdpkcZSM2-2BxcP4tUPeuakN5LVTxc8yZ6E-3D))
* **Neoclouds:** NScale's IPO filing shows **$103.4 billion** of contracted revenue, with Microsoft and Anthropic accounting for 85%. Nvidia is its supplier, an investor ($2.2 billion) and a guarantor. ([Run the Numbers](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh90gEbbvIhq0-2BhqFoWgYCoOnTmPRW1xSEq6mNskA2-2BJvo-2B0lZ1WpBYPRDuhyUuWSU3DyFp2bQ4jGsVD9VvaANsEwIlwlDsj4UTojXW7-2FWc-2Bg-3D-3DAisv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkezUeDO5gZ9vuPmNK63F9UvWnYZrMUD25a3tKMJH06qP6oscX45goohhUzXrdmXSnfL1O-2B7iIlDTx6P-2FhHrAxkdJQSKKPvuxBc7F69pLddS32HYrj6KLxCr552KQ9004fN3No5bxfNZEoM3ojtioJWyE-3D))

### How to track demand in real time

**Phil Rosen** on Full Signal (Sep 24) said his team tracks GPU availability at on-demand cloud providers, along with rental rates and AI lab revenue, because "earnings are always backward looking." Their finding is that falling availability comes before rising rental prices. Blackwell chips currently show essentially zero on-demand availability, and he called the readings "very bullish." He added that semiconductors are now "almost 20% of total market cap." In his study, the S&P 500 performed about 90% better on days semis rose than on days they fell, the widest gap of any industry. ([Full Signal](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgo3eTi7p9XC-2FgAh9i1BXN4RWf8itrrXvmAg6C089K1QlwxqdJ7L0uuz32RyomNu0vx-2FP4dim9dkpycUEjBxetQTAGfM5n4tfaSPeVhiUucew-3D-3D1AfJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke3DVTlon8e0-2Bl-2FHde0Kld8rl7Vr-2BOAaGDwhmkVyOeQ354NxpmkQoJ05kS2Bh0Y-2B5q3QupST6dzOx9hebxVAP6pNwkUGja5HTHF3SpFJA6Ax0DAQTDIwdZ9VmewXzw6ojqpgOK72LZS1h7DSERySfDzo-3D))

> "I would start to question our call to be overweight equities if semis broke back below the lows they made in July when Situational Awareness blew up."

### Networking inside the data center

Ayar Labs CEO **Mark Wade** on The Circuit (Sep 21) said electrical wiring between GPUs is becoming the limit on how large AI systems can grow. Replacing it with light-based links ("co-packaged optics") is "tens of billion, probably approaching $100 billion market size." He expects mainstream adoption around 2028 to 2029. Ayar's investors include Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSMC and MediaTek, and it has raised **$650 million** so far this year. ([The Circuit](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjZNw2TYqRDYZFYiauJ4dSfz-2BQm530Bsa978aEceMTXJqucPIVVCzFKaCN0aPjSAGtXSUbfzJPUzEeYcMaclLCYl-2B5ezyAxljei9uA0dwIfjw-3D-3DHpXe_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2F8RX-2F-2BQhsBcgr1baSPMpoljCMjiw3bzZ8LrU0XlKSq0azqrLgLLK7qI1huCryW2ufPL7w6d7hRjIxqWxOEAK4e9kJQ7Ru6XNOC6zZYxRMaCmEtmN6S5KEhh4U5z1VGFZDMpBRWAyQeMaQlu8j7-2FU3U-3D))

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## 2. Memory Pricing: HBM, DRAM, NAND (MU, SK Hynix, Samsung)

A quick glossary. **DRAM** is the working memory in every computer. **HBM** (high-bandwidth memory) is a premium, stacked form of DRAM that sits next to AI chips. **NAND** is the flash storage in SSDs. Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung make most of the world's supply.

### Why memory is short

Semiconductor analyst **Harsh Kumar** explained it on Closing Bell Overtime (Sep 25) ([Closing Bell](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DLmpk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke1TbV6K79J9Ekvr9nfkApia471aDjJS9Rjd3wKAVUnXW0NdrAbTXOsYfzt2a1AAZpDp5UwrNhR-2BmsymjiupUIgL2oiWB0jvSJms4b9sAU2wU7fjG1ubyOfOOEQi42mMmvh-2FVqeKu82kg1V110Usn39w-3D)):

> "In 2023, Micron had negative 10% gross margin. Just let that sink in for a second... AI comes along and the demand for HBM and the trade ratio of three to one, which is for every HBM die you make, you take away three times the surface area from DRAM... it has all led to basically a lack of supply and prices rising astronomically."

* Memory factories "take two, two and a half, three years to make, and they cost $8 to $10 billion." The first new capacity "comes on in middle of next year... I suspect we'll still be short."
* HBM is sold under long-term contracts, so its price cannot jump mid-contract. Standard DRAM follows the spot market, which is why DRAM prices have risen fastest.
* Next year, Kumar thinks, "NAND Flash might be the one that rises the most."
* The host noted Micron shares peaked at **$1,255** exactly three months earlier, and that Kumar has a **$1,300** price target.

### Micron is becoming a less cyclical business

On Market News with Rodney Lake (Sep 24), **Rodney Lake**, director of the GW Investment Institute, laid out the numbers ([Market News with Rodney Lake](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj9qRc3PncPYmxStIKNkZNheE-2Byvln-2BXnqozHdlE0RKet64z9HW03NkL6cU63FwEmjbCscFoXSqGaHhRuaAjJI-2FQNDHyvWx94GZ-2BSpyctBejQ-3D-3DHSkC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke10nPLSi9DtjHshqK6eRoVUZ4YGaAvas8KRzZv320IIJxU3VLehfwSv3iowwY1qP0Ls4MqF4017wwH2Z54g55QqpHCXZJ31mR9kZ6YxaNUfrdI-2FOB43AFqMNG1Qalxnjb0pz0iPjaoBUZXl3BVUMJZw-3D)):

* Market value of about **$1 trillion**, up from $62 billion in 2022.
* Trailing 12-month revenue of **$90 billion** through May, up **167%**. Gross margin of **72%**.
* Projected revenue of **$129 billion** for fiscal 2026 and **$249 billion** for fiscal 2027.
* In fiscal 2023, revenue fell from $30.7 billion to $15.5 billion. "That was more typical of the memory business in the past."
* The change he highlighted is that the business is moving from spot-market pricing toward longer "take-or-pay" contracts with hyperscalers. "Everyone says, oh, this time is different. It may or may not be."
* He flagged China's **CXMT** as a fast-growing fourth memory player after its listing this summer. It is now also a significant HBM maker, "principally serving the domestic Chinese market."

### Is memory pricing power fading?

* "I haven't heard one plausible evidence that memory pricing power is eroding, not one," said one of the Futurum Equities Podcast hosts (Sep 25). ([Futurum Equities Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3D4z9q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke0O-2B2mt3aD5ltB11RcGNKa1rJ6fRtFadgnTmZcQ4s-2FazjFktRXaHvl1v4HmJjfpwKdfH-2Fk-2BUrKe7A-2BT9zoUMZL6Zw3iw8wTfvfGl14VL9aT9VeQUh4OTKnqWsqIPHqGDOFE-2BVaZlxGUInG-2F3-2FNr-2FJwo-3D))
* On Fast Money (Sep 25), a host reported an analyst "raising his estimates because he found that ASPs [average selling prices] in the August quarter, and he's expecting the November quarter, are actually still rising." Panelist Mike Coe put Micron at "call it seven times actually less next year's earnings": "it's kind of hard... to understand why it would go materially lower from here." ([CNBC's "Fast Money"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3D3kL-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke9UanrHTmVr-2FXKNUXG9DcqMIvlbC8DIw6lN-2FLfqeXBVywASsaU7FKDpajfpPNyJsyPmMBZKNMcvmOr54FG-2BHqhcOmZ9l4CaaDYtUyg0EOrI37KI0dDgPDuLLbcLBNareDT8mnuJads9BjyTAgaRKRr0-3D))
* **The risk case** came from **Ed Carson** of IBD (Sep 25): "If they say we're going to have one more good quarter and then boy, oh boy... the pricing is going to go down... you could imagine that really negative reaction for Micron and the broader memory space." ([Stock Market Today With IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjixBx5X4yCuFQoKqlUbWVLrijxm6jBEeGWnbj4Y9G4z1YZKmSiDPb3wxoLTVpo5TwPoOnut34tpg1IXZw-2BQdyGdKQTGphChd-2BDCFByqGNPlw-3D-3DzSSG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke0nx5JMm9Daus7IfDjPBew6kCqIs3IRzsD34iQaFmlJHA4p2JXJbcIxiQ1GGVz3ZZqpv2e-2FLg0Ftnly8ewydheF5sul88-2BslHg4jI4ufKWY7-2BNKlgTS4NUsonrMgk4Cv3Gfa-2FWi13gmskTk3D45lsGM-3D))
* **Hedgeye's** hosts (Sep 19) raised a cost point: data centers are being built "at peak prices for everything," including steel, copper, diesel and "memory prices up." That makes the capex a bigger bet. ([Hedgeye Podcasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjR-2BsvsJ-2BMQUswf4sFhPRX-2B58FSi0MsekvXjUE58nb2p6GHnGjir-2BH7-2F40SbpQW1o1eT9PXxdbgM9vRNTgr9PLKP9ehnjZet4FRB0HPSqmA6A-3D-3DXcPO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke4OHNr5VQYdHE4XA-2F1JrH3Ff5UjYOEPONhUYX6Ej-2F7Km4CoJamul9mU0iv1-2FozUtLayOStXfXMoq96cQ2WWhrfemb69IVVUNK2kXNz59XR4rTPE4RbZWju84czfVxDDNWlZQVQN2e-2BID60Sc5-2B4vk3M-3D))

---

## 3. Chip Equipment Makers (ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC)

Equipment makers sell the machines that manufacture chips. This spending is known as WFE (wafer fab equipment).

* The main equipment point this week was China exposure. CNBC's Seema Mody, citing Goldman, said equipment names "like LAM Research, Applied Materials, Teradyne, generate 30% or more of their sales from the mainland," and that Goldman warned they "could be at risk if the geopolitical tensions, tariffs escalate meaningfully." ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8Ev7ruNMFFRKu0LCAi8u4sI9Y4Sml9CIonXZ2bEKZJZ-2F8h6BXAruSP0o21nK7POwbBWWMPW0joYt0W9YlHWXYN2oPLYD3M-2FR11KJBIEbeBw-3D-3D3wy3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2BKDvG-2FfJ69t9skBDwJlcPB9bmFso57pZQNgz6VVD60DLKl5JaawN0k0f5XTp9GakGwnTb9iHuuGIKUlEhYvUGHf0Lqz2Xk-2B9x3orm69fCHsNdngHcmwisj4tUxlls6g6aP3ExgxMDAeEyny0uY84wo-3D))
* Before the summit, **Andreas Steno Larsen** on Macro Mondays (Sep 21) said Washington "holds sympathy for added tariffs on semiconductors" and for "banning more equipment from China." ([Macro Mondays](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiF1bax9uIy3gdKk8SapZvZ9e03X4h6CRh0V2J4JqgUq1MjMaSxrsZRj8Ogh00EcewKhcdIA1mqmP70UrHUr21vXpPPVrh-2FlY-2BLVRZ5slr6pg-3D-3DvZ8L_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2BIKtKbfoGFrbpV9QT88uQOSEZ-2BRh9bj5-2F-2BzJyO3bhOyG8qSZaZq9-2BJphP6eIhbmwb2Wjpax4LKkxTXG7YO6bzDkqDFvoBjjlfI259b-2F5AlqSaA-2FOYGONkP2lT1U4dRvUW3ez5jyrbtP-2FSqkgf-2B-2BGik-3D))
* Harsh Kumar's point that a new memory factory costs $8 to $10 billion bears on equipment demand ([Closing Bell](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3DCyYp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke5km04EfuhyCpT3UqkNj8va9ADjrutt0m6zV605P6kmZUPoOkpO6OyIWulVOcHOvc1xERZxp3bpJGv7to5uQSirS9JWlHborRFbgc53VBgAToZnAgmRM-2BGy4IglECuLQbGKZfoJ2A7alm6P-2BZm-2Bve6Y-3D)). So does Futurum's plan to watch Micron's capex guidance, which will "tell me whether management still sees major supply response coming in 2028 or whether capacity is starting to arrive earlier." ([Futurum Equities Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DRbuA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke9zD1efA2K0jFihgbtLa57INjeTUg4gQqPEbLFeCttXv6W6zc2VeRYHaU07OPqp7IVUtHfcL1jqZ4F6vVaZ1q3FS8L5go96N2MW1QF8h18th64z3Kw5eUX749Vm60hWkSE1xdPgphEXXbEs6MzEfKy4-3D))

---

## 4. Foundries and Manufacturing (TSM, INTC, GFS)

A foundry manufactures chips that other companies design. TSMC is the largest.

* **Taiwan is still the single point of failure.** Squawk on the Street (Sep 24) noted that China "still assumes sovereignty of the island in which 90% of AI chips are manufactured." China's ambassador called Taiwan "a red line" ahead of the summit. ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8Ev7ruNMFFRKu0LCAi8u4sI9Y4Sml9CIonXZ2bEKZJZ-2F8h6BXAruSP0o21nK7POwbBWWMPW0joYt0W9YlHWXYN2oPLYD3M-2FR11KJBIEbeBw-3D-3DldMa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke3u0-2BohNb9Ai-2BpuLtNlDAMKMSkGpZEqfO2LgC-2BgFroCBc2sZI4sLR-2Fm-2BqGfOr8sRgDyKHnRt3rDFYrXt9JIO0KrkmbtvKZZfWZTGuZbxnN8yaP6OyxSBbWMrsmnEWJfNz-2FxDXa-2FHw5xzmJLxiyJtDRs-3D))
* **Intel's selling point is being made in America.** A Schwab Network technical analyst (Sep 21) called Intel "the only domestic chip manufacturer that has a foundry on U.S. soil," unlike chip designers such as Nvidia, AMD and Marvell, which outsource manufacturing to TSMC. The hosts put Intel's gain at around **300% over the past 52 weeks**. ([Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhvAaDXCfxnLh0YVP2QD-2FvtBTHNelr7Xu47bsad9-2F7WOYYjcgbSle-2Fhj9CKH0ASW4oU9AjKJ4o3WHMx6ueeyrx49kI8FT8gQ7pAw02PdEUY1A-3D-3Dxe9T_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2F4-2F34Jtw9Tu9XV33DDW7-2BCIAPEnvE-2FdAtATQkcEqGIQle0txsjjSfi2zFaT770j68J1dpx8hDxOzQRP-2BUY4KoiFSSmDI34dREY7VaEYOZRvvyMXZriSUbTRmIWFyzvdgjXQQ0VHxxQpv8lDqeW0srM-3D)) Intel rose about 9% on September 21 alone. ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg9g6jfxO0WL1AySixrS3wCTnESLv0VeLwpOvWkIhWUHF-2BiMjGyiPZpscwWC9gpoVd-2Fdd7H3vcF9Q-2BzGjYK-2BMxvzLPHmomDZc-2FsYfilMwPLsA-3D-3DG05g_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke3dWR1faajKab3su-2BQWYF0gwfsFZfZVpOMzqhkvymjFZNFGz99Z4deBgqqZimC0Fav8JB7guw64fx1MC1WfEWWZv3HG8n7sY-2FrbzP4Dm7eFp-2FKjS0o4rW8bbm3NIVZbtGmJRUzeigMYzLNq1IKZOj4w-3D))
* Dan Ives described what he sees on his Asia trips: "You'll see in Taiwan, like, 18 hours a day they're building fabs." ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhM0Hl-2BncBjoHRoz9QCN2ldo5ZCJYljo6yiar4-2FvcFoq93xrSQ6yBytSyFBGGghKxBFRDZRePrJEba251JbEwmrZQWjycXMK76xAZgUPwn73w-3D-3DWb_f_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fkeza5mZO4XWylyaS5nrnOqRSreVjBMd-2Fv9w-2BPeZFBYZwcXZRkOp2UK5IlfHnxR9GbnXmGGp1lYhnyTFBCR76pUtOdVlQk9XOHoYO7yDjpfpi2N0YpMq8-2BysabLjJEdy7vKdAyad011NUQ5PQPx42xOXU-3D))

---

## 5. Analog, Auto and Industrial Chips (TXN, ADI, MCHP, ON, NXPI, STM)

Analog chips handle real-world signals such as power, sensors and motors. They go into cars, factories and appliances rather than AI servers.

* **Alex King** of Sestrian Capital Research on Investing Experts (Sep 22), in an episode titled "Don't sleep on (analog) semiconductors": "I would say at the moment, don't sleep on semiconductors... because the sector has fallen so far from fashion." He said the semiconductor ETF fell "something like 25% from peak to trough from June down to July 31 lows." He blamed the collapse of the Situational Awareness fund's positions, which he sees as "collateral damage in a big fight between Jane Street and Citadel." Micron, Intel and AMD have recovered, "but a lot of them are still bumping along at the lows." His conclusion: "Number one message, don't sleep on semiconductors and don't sleep on analog semiconductors in particular." ([Investing Experts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhl7PS-2BcZLA0E59Xx0NgLQPSZNwjgo1qb4zxenxG129XLvXevVHDDQGoud1ov-2B048LfUgsg0-2B3rhT5nqAp7-2FB6TE7CgHg6EnpvG7w-2FmRmn-2F7g-3D-3D2v_b_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkexFdzkxb-2B9JyG1zEpkJ5a0bWSf4lTAdU4w3Xdbb26K9xU2H77Ki9V3SLfzoY9EQZtdMfkoea6FwTVbs4fT6qIr3nYccquDqfY9VpwRP89MDHXgFeIY66rI-2B7VsIznRwuEhugX68pEM3W2AI6IIEZFtA-3D))
* King also took the long-run bull case seriously. He called it "the most entertaining outcome" that "actually all these hyperscalers do achieve a return on CapEx." On the same show, Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok was quoted forecasting that hyperscalers' combined operating cash flow will triple from about **$600 billion to $2 trillion**. ([Investing Experts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhl7PS-2BcZLA0E59Xx0NgLQPSZNwjgo1qb4zxenxG129XLvXevVHDDQGoud1ov-2B048LfUgsg0-2B3rhT5nqAp7-2FB6TE7CgHg6EnpvG7w-2FmRmn-2F7g-3D-3DKO-H_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkezGHUdVeazoyhMQs2TqrT8m-2BtD-2BtbFX-2BXS87i7Ye8Xj-2FUiGWNi8g6haTbiWJAM8aTHapIJxeg1nfRrdsGXG9InZPvAAd5SHO-2FkMytAef0Yl4kEbGQjt8J0zq2RGlwd5n0ThMMFZyUbBU5kIo-2BJSlzfM-3D))

---

## 6. China, Export Controls and Tariffs

The Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24 dominated macro podcasts, and chips were a quiet part of the agenda.

### Nvidia chips are America's main bargaining chip

**John Liu**, Bloomberg's co-head for Asia, on Big Take Asia (Sep 22) ([Big Take Asia](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgiucaqNnsN1eAahBbtO0xkPHMEq5j3wtw-2Bc-2FTGT672UHTjxANMXy-2FK5KBzaXTn-2FFDr-2FHSf7fDoZLJWHLw813FDko4SdtWmxwlsU6sAUIKaWQ-3D-3Dgl3e_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke2T5arWWPsB7HNQ5H-2FCKhoG-2BsvoKlGVnRXsbfAhTRQ5H8S7l6ckgMzXKOvlETwWVrunkowIGrDN-2FQ5oiqcYWYpIlXSigLHpJYxHxPcWvGB8s8rYAhAjJyrcG233oJrhxaeQodPrROQ0zT3Joez6awhs-3D)):

> "Semiconductors are a substantial point of leverage for the United States... for the training of the Chinese models, many of those firms still prefer if they can get their hands on... NVIDIA chips to do that training just because the performance is substantially better."

* China has leverage too. The host noted China controls **66%** of global optical transceivers (the parts that send data over fiber) and **over 90%** of rare-earth magnet manufacturing. Liu said Beijing's leverage over the US AI build-out is "surprisingly strong."

### What Nvidia is assuming

* Squawk on the Street (Sep 24): Nvidia has been "not assuming any data center compute revenue from this country in their outlook." Jensen Huang did persuade the administration to allow sales of older-generation chips. ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8Ev7ruNMFFRKu0LCAi8u4sI9Y4Sml9CIonXZ2bEKZJZ-2F8h6BXAruSP0o21nK7POwbBWWMPW0joYt0W9YlHWXYN2oPLYD3M-2FR11KJBIEbeBw-3D-3Dmy49_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke1XY9x-2FgkHLuSo1fF6flRFrTDwiElqZdvr5DtImL2QWIfkJ2gx5E2AljqZr-2BDngeQVfmj6FUMB6KsfaBmwXXiTNEc-2B2nW5QEunaCAN3TyHDw-2BVdVqoySsQA2n9K4J4UBZxkCBsvxVsnGtc9lpBvGPWI-3D))
* Huang's own position on The Ezra Klein Show: "Our goal is not just that one lab benefits. Our goal is that all of America benefits... the world [should] be built on the American tech stack." ([Hard Fork](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3DFHLC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke0p5fVXHKCp-2F6HrWZ6hgQ47-2B5VR6jC-2BbOZnYQi-2B4dkDstQTGBmujwaH3vYMpb-2FZ-2BUINvIQkYh7w8lcDdb0gxJhYLo1KoTqfzkMSww6sU1aZDRSe2JhW-2FZFyCyDPfP-2BcVTo-2F3GSe34Vx7cdn2HrPhnRc-3D))
* Dan Ives made the same argument: "If you don't sell chips into China... who ultimately starts to narrow the gap? China." ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhM0Hl-2BncBjoHRoz9QCN2ldo5ZCJYljo6yiar4-2FvcFoq93xrSQ6yBytSyFBGGghKxBFRDZRePrJEba251JbEwmrZQWjycXMK76xAZgUPwn73w-3D-3DjedI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke5bjtiCtZUPAt9A19-2BPyq-2FANrvftSqgblE-2F6Oxoyxwk-2FEI0EqFTVJy0t7owo8g0cvOzCJPV8XVeZOYXEdKPXdUbM2oGOB6NQr1zVaq2gELNugOa7u582Jn1LWQP3z-2Fj6PxqlU-2Bm2S0PF0S0dgN8wb8w-3D))

### A veteran on tariffs

**TJ Rogers**, founding CEO of Cypress Semiconductor, on Squawk on the Street (Sep 24): "I'm very worried about tariffs. Tariffs are a bad idea... Tariffs are taxes and the tax hits almost 100% on the American people." On US-China relations: "We have absolutely complementary skills... And then they play games, rare earth metals, the same kind of games we play with tariffs." ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg8Ev7ruNMFFRKu0LCAi8u4sI9Y4Sml9CIonXZ2bEKZJZ-2F8h6BXAruSP0o21nK7POwbBWWMPW0joYt0W9YlHWXYN2oPLYD3M-2FR11KJBIEbeBw-3D-3DUcWN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke8HviMrR5AsIGQXyj1muAI2UiR93j-2BNqciMhQlyi18n0sDjZelPkaNlE0QvWqZepj7Q-2FcpwMlC2lnNJRvjkXjaSv6xz-2FoSXWFcpbKQBiCucpPeJtwUXXpbzkDjzkcjLQ6yeOSnIh042OZ8bVuQllEGg-3D))

### What the summit produced

CNBC's China correspondent on Closing Bell Overtime (Sep 25): China did not confirm the AI "hotline" idea or the two-month extension of the trade truce. The reporter's read: "Even though there isn't any action, like no concrete deliverables, the inaction is actually the deliverable in this case." More meetings are expected in November and December. ([Closing Bell](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3Dr_e7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkezGViagx1kF-2Fr5KmaHCxE5nxstxwQDWKlgDGBUmcROGwmtqf-2FBdLwPG15hjt-2BvGhSzRC2sf-2FFgMF0L-2BiyoPuRxX6luSRKvlGkEALZx-2B7oM0fE9k4U7FHbjAjUn588Bp1mxNNiQvnLg36-2B6WcbVPo1QY-3D))

---

## 7. Earnings and Post-Earnings Reactions

Micron is next week's event, and Broadcom's recent quarter is still being discussed. A summary table follows the main sections.

### Micron: what to watch in the report

The Futurum Equities Podcast (Sep 25) gave the most detailed preview ([Futurum Equities Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DzAk7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke9yrYkfNj-2BVzZoDbrYOKd4REZ6Xn8LIi74k3TgYXXkRT5JzNmXtOfhMNNhU8SATwoOs1UTXU4pf7uoI60xA-2BMz1Vog7jYB0b3HgebsAvu-2BGgYLd74ZspzgxVWE8wglqGNntOhd3vDz2lwlcEwNj1yhU-3D)):

* **A calendar quirk:** "Q4 has 14 weeks in it. Q1 only has 13 weeks in it. People aren't going to normalize their guidance and they're going to jump to conclusion." An extra week in the quarter just reported will make next quarter's guidance look weaker than the business really is.
* **Long-term customer contracts:** the hosts want updates on Micron's strategic customer agreements, and on "how that makes the next downturn look different from previous cycles." If investors believe those contracts, Micron might stop being "traded like a commodity at six times earnings" and move "above 10 times earnings."
* **HBM4:** can Micron keep "that 20% market share" as the market moves to the next generation of HBM?
* **Headline estimates** cited on the show: about **$50.9 billion** in revenue and **$31.49** in earnings per share.
* On the bear worry that gross margins might "only" reach 75% in two years: "That's still software margins on a supplier."

### Market reaction to AI slowdown talk (Sep 20)

Patrick Boyle noted that when AI executives called for a slowdown, Nvidia fell about 3%, Micron and Marvell more than 4%, Dell 6% and HP Enterprise 11%. ([Patrick Boyle On Finance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhyTbtAio-2BEXxcA19Tpn-2Bgxph6XlpveSzzqpuqvKR722-2F2szNDruERB7j7obgktIzN8vxkEAMCceEwCcUZ8gP5meNL8tkqe2d-2BPSUC511TdQA-3D-3D3EW0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke23dxYB-2FJt2s3jhTce4eeI883KrLmHVe2DlV43C-2FKRns-2BHpygUaIEOJE1yCmkWqv-2FfhjT6DFHckYnK6-2Ba-2Bbxj34uIHg98BExwvhaya12TftdivsBRBpF5yOjjYnFVtXxIT0lBnwKlVs-2FtrnYVjRIiaM-3D))

---

## 8. Mergers and Acquisitions

* Speaking on Odd Lots (Sep 19), a Goldman M&A banker said 2026 is the biggest M&A year on record, partly because of AI infrastructure: "We've seen an enormous boom in semiconductor technology, semiconductor equities, and semiconductor M&A," as companies look for proprietary chip technology. ([Odd Lots](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiY-2BS41UG6IYlllChU3YdzQ9lRZjVMD2Pk0xaoYDFvR9eq8p2EbpH5SAYJ7oB-2FYuxxTVu-2F9y1m7W1u1cmQ7XJYFsQbHlLwNrdxXEhpFYFxTGw-3D-3Dm1jA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke5KyV6WvulliFWjfIwV-2BsWRHX2lhWM4phLCozwz98RRTqDkSKLNikXfFwJIQyzrdWbRb3jgISCESHF38tb5EGgm9R0Hbw2S-2FGXURWoL6FGDJk3XCUWlbrdSC9dh-2FmAMz7WQveisz95cLzcaSf21hs5o-3D))
* Infineon's chief IP counsel **Peter Berg** looked back at the **$2.5 billion** purchase of Marvell's automotive Ethernet business, which closed in August 2025. He said the deal was about product assets and reusable design blocks, not patents: "Seldomly does Infineon acquire a business because of its patent portfolio." None of Marvell's IP staff joined. ([IP Fridays](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiSoW7G84jgnRpU8ukkGdOIdv1sLWSXEDc16n95zhXfMqNfI-2FZl5Bh494OuzQiW-2Bk-2BvbYpMemRvmWM0c0oj-2FlrWYnn-2BgsZTb514uB0d5Zi10Q-3D-3DWAfM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke3vly1fwUuqKdzf4Ca3YGt4REDN96f1fZgDek70Z-2FyzDSiB0L-2FbKrKGefhVtzZOL1bGU5hZjg67-2BlUycMVtdak3WzUKTWj6myoH4emWojaEMg6bZr-2F0Nm2760y3IGU1-2BK4X6V75MHj-2BwvMqioJYVg-2Bs-3D))

---

## 9. Cycles and Bubbles: Peak, Trough or Neither?

This was the week's biggest debate by volume. The bear case has moved beyond valuations to money that has been spent without earning a return yet.

### The bear case

* **Ed Zitron** on Better Offline (Sep 25) ([Better Offline](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3DUQCq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkeymOHGBNkh6wflimN5dGwpeLZP6gL9NB6uIPh7Azb-2F1WUdnzYYPks9m94IWNDzK0H-2FLIajdVo3AFwIofZ28RVb2i6H3UXvJOhntfO6b6QyrzjFjTlLuKa4O6kpnxIFh7ABKheyKI6b4Vg9rUospLtbo-3D)):
  * Microsoft has spent more than **$265 billion** on capex since the start of 2022. He estimates only about **2.2 million GPUs (roughly $50 to $60 billion)** are in service, and "as much as $106 billion worth of GPUs and associated hardware are now sitting either unpowered in data centers... or in warehouses."
  * Across Google, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, CoreWeave and others, he counts about **$374 billion** of "construction in progress," the balance-sheet line for equipment bought but not yet running. Google's share is about **$122 billion** and Amazon's about **$71 billion**. He guesses the true total is **$400 to $500 billion**.
  * "Approximately 50% of all AI hardware and chips that have been sold is being warehoused... Basically everything you've seen NVIDIA sell has been a pre-order campaign that arrives sometime in 2028, 2029." In his view, Nvidia has booked **$200 to $300 billion** of revenue on hardware sold 24 to 36 months ahead of use.
  * He also claimed OpenAI made up **70%** of Microsoft's AI revenue in fiscal 2026.
* **Jim Chanos** on RiskReversal Pod (Sep 25): "We started work on the hyperscalers and looking at returns... on incremental invested capital. And those peaked in 2024 and have been declining ever since, and at a rapid rate." At that pace, hyperscalers "will have returns below their weighted average cost of capital sometime in mid-27, which I don't think the market is prepared for." (The weighted average cost of capital is the minimum return a company needs to cover what it pays investors and lenders.) He puts **45% to 55%** of the S&P 500 as "somehow AI-related." He also noted that credit markets "have begun to tighten" over the past three to five months while stocks "are still very sanguine." ([RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3DVR-N_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fkez5-2Bp0tX9O2XyN4N3YFUe-2FZ6w1lthSXaFNmOiIyGxn5-2BivFSOcuiTWwabR2yebvCmP9zlV-2BxNu8gj1-2BQ8LOzmwxlnvp1paohKBtpB5STDRnpnXJMaAdKQua39gZNPplDkbDvHtk1FffEs3BO8HiRbmA-3D))
* **Paul Kedrosky** of SK Ventures, on Between Two COO's (Sep 22): AI capex drove "anywhere from 30% to 70% of US GDP growth" depending on the quarter. "More than 60% is coming from what's euphemistically called external financing," meaning money that does not come from the companies' own cash flow. "In about 2029, we'll hit a maturity wall," the point when that debt must be repaid or refinanced. "There's never been an episode where we've had this spending on this scale or it hasn't ended in a major recession, if not a depression." ([Between Two COO's with Michael Koenig](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYjJDwruxwdiRJEHVjjOHFOKjq33K-2Bav1l6ukU1oit2X-2BgdEPq93v5tvbkdKVGgUblKdRo-2F-2BA0npXCOR8pzA8WP62ZCAfVShDSHp4V1gfnhg-3D-3DyrSF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2FjkcatUpyVunzgj6jEEFi6n5IX4O1woocK4OeZxfCZaYHJHl80VSI4FojdfpulIkwDGe-2B-2FYF9lhA1jUPU1yVkfI7JTmAm4dOWj6pvjiMpE1WBRxqyave9ppdfulROonbsdSGPB3acpvT-2B7iAf2H5Sw-3D))
* **Oracle's force majeure notice**: Oracle invoked force majeure, a legal clause that excuses a party when events outside its control block performance, on its **$18 billion** Jupiter data center project in New Mexico. George Gammon called it a sign of a top. He argued Oracle "wouldn't pull the plug if AI demand remained robust," and noted the site's 2.4-gigawatt power need is more than the state can supply. ([Rebel Capitalist News](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbxWeUMnbtiNMFULanEPyVW1LmGW1WVroCxHVnwTdjyzJGEDVJeXKx1ba1aQ4-2BZB6FuuBbO3klOuTjQGCyTl1EdyEncq6-2B49tM6SkTe5Httg-3D-3DAKl5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkexYjweyxnfMwLE-2FMTNpwEXhHmRbSFutlUAlBdXsbBdZGwLoVgbPPlPQH29DmtM7GqVn0apZhu1LapXWNM6qWOiGtAfcdHirabobpHcXZr7o8qKsG3bvVdQ8pacsuUA2hOyJhdZSuqZx-2FVfH9DVux6xA-3D))

### How the money flows

**Amanda Lynam**, Goldman Sachs' Chief Credit Strategist, on Alpha Exchange (Sep 23): "If you just look at the CapEx figures from 2026 through 2030 for the group of hyperscalers, that CapEx estimate is upwards of $6 trillion... the hyperscalers are only 40% of total AI-related gross issuance." Her concern is not whether the money exists. She is "not concerned at all, actually, about access to capital." The limit is how much any single borrower or theme bond investors are willing to hold. She expects private markets to "do more of the heavy lifting" from 2028. ([Alpha Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjlnFjRyAItO30qenFyDLO6cFa8TaAT8o53qMj9H9fjfwZadh-2B-2BkEyV35BEDJlhbS-2B2Sue2rq8EzPbvgWRytjDNRDu8ggq1afCa21LJkP7chQ-3D-3Dfpmt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke7H6OWVEFOdKNR9TKAiyEVLxlZqND1kMOtRnxZ2uX4-2F6v0ql0V73kcmF3VSYpQqTnlqGHPxaICRrx4XA5zMGn-2Bcu5x3eCagEV7t-2B2aRy5-2BvvSmQdEHVoOrplo-2Fu-2FFEsFpoKBrqUz549Ib54DAtgqEDM-3D))

### The middle view: finely balanced

* An analyst on The Most Interesting Thing in AI (Sep 23) said the math "probably works" but depends on two things: how fast chips are depreciated (six years versus four changes the answer a lot) and whether demand lasts. ([The Most Interesting Thing in AI](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgmUfhaFNC-2Bc8tVVrpbnw3o-2BG6Xbn41AmhigIMCxQJp8OyFte7C9WoGeDGFLHuqbo0udC9diHmwWEW0naHB12dnuxe99rt7g2ZbCZmFt7xbVg-3D-3Da_To_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fkewn8LieKLTLKXdz1BM9M3-2BgBx8xSad87xE1AImS8TWgay6udziA8zO4bZUyg8ks4mHBK-2BmCKKyWbelBrioKyZyJTcit5ziCVAWVDG-2FVpkNqm46ecRcrTXVtgzTX1AvSJ1Dtd8WiItZh95AmFucwEDTs-3D))
* Peter St Onge on What Bitcoin Did (Sep 24): AI is in the "1997 to early 1998" stage of a dot-com-style bubble. He expects the pop around late 2027 or early 2028, with chip stocks rising further before then. ([What Bitcoin Did](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi5RWzUow5IGtB2FeO-2F8nECmusUC-2FOBvtVZc9Xi1oGFxOUJlSgBlxu8bp7VNQ-2FgSjCcTx2WGqERhtfsq-2BbSVyJ47e5Cwq6FIbBwGJKMlLnYAA-3D-3Dis23_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkeyeUFjU7u7bodCs996ynW4YGbf6qK1yGMJm5MqR-2FYvl6AG-2By4-2B16aV-2FimeTrcd3kR8t7PR778Lq-2FfRYJ9xbJuP63-2F9J68CBU1kgFWoz3TZhI3vrOMYuX7gudV-2BqkVpq7PXc16lVjdW8UqLDSbrNppy0-3D))
* The Franklin Templeton manager on Wealthion drew a line between the fundamentals and the trading. What worried him earlier this year was "that parabolic move in semi-space. That reminded me of 2000... Market took those stocks out to the woodshed." He called it a "mini speculative bubble in semi-space in the last six months," driven by leverage, not a repeat of the dot-com bubble. ([Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT62ELYVfsRBihhz1ZFq6U4lUW8yioq45qpWbrVLxwDGtcMpf-2FJKfOSvDcVLRJNo17CHy6V-2F0c6ZEBsjYWWoKZrtgmoe0wx6Kv5wJ15iB2Hw-3D-3DS2UJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke8f7VYNz2gLPJwXIzPeDB8Vip9Hv4PbgZBsG9KEoc5r9jAK4mznS1G-2B0TrgJRL8Hg3vvDaKPPAwImhIgSACr3SgyiNWHL8G3fgMXmZhF3cuq3Nae3CtC0SGNw-2Bm-2BbAlNQsURYulvtJXoHuEF-2FG6tgzk-3D))

### The bull view

* **Cathie Wood** of ARK on Equity Mates (Sep 21): AI is not a bubble but an early-stage transformation. She pointed to Anthropic's revenue run rate growing from **$9 billion to $65 billion** in six months, with 80% gross margins. ([Equity Mates Investing Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhnY0oByWsSdzvAsTwxPVcrra89AINPSfuNiHGp5-2FqsFu-2BPJPgPmpbSfDSwgsuozZbaXtl9HxI26WjupFMkdkPSuhYS3rYn80XVRU1qpLexKg-3D-3DdLze_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkewFaQKqeE26lbvb6Ad5OgTjJhMsIvAAWpl4K2DcLq0Kd2cZBvTLlX6eKLE4Hjupn5KajY4zVz6fKLKIgKMkC6rvBN9hpUSHoaV9a7TpZb2wo5cKlDPWoYqIX-2BcZjua7Vznm6nEPJUU43S9oS1G-2B4Sdw-3D))
* Tom Lee on The Compound and Friends: "You're never at a top when people want PE to be low and earnings are going up." He said the Fed ends a bull market "80% of the time." ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhM0Hl-2BncBjoHRoz9QCN2ldo5ZCJYljo6yiar4-2FvcFoq93xrSQ6yBytSyFBGGghKxBFRDZRePrJEba251JbEwmrZQWjycXMK76xAZgUPwn73w-3D-3DkqsN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke2lljMAsxktlw6ZnqkOexYNym3KhTTrg0IpC3fOCglXrVvH5i7Bo6F2xlX4sPzoSj4qfggFzlFn5LY35nvt-2Fk-2FUivw8thcz7fSVTqgGzo1CAlI8wvzuFhCq0D4siQX83-2FSgjIEYoZ3TJxGwjsoKa3M8-3D))

### Positioning

Hedgeye's hosts (Sep 19) said semis are falling in short-term (three-month) momentum rankings as money rotates into software. Because "positioning is light" in semis, though, "if people want to chase beta later this year... that could be a basket that recovers." Beta here means stocks that move more than the market. ([Hedgeye Podcasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjR-2BsvsJ-2BMQUswf4sFhPRX-2B58FSi0MsekvXjUE58nb2p6GHnGjir-2BH7-2F40SbpQW1o1eT9PXxdbgM9vRNTgr9PLKP9ehnjZet4FRB0HPSqmA6A-3D-3D3wFK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke4KPRd31atao8dzvheDYL0VHag8Eoeswf5YMEcOy6pB3dM7vDLYKb8t4xI5jPkRJyay2ilUgJF5SuvYd67DCSSq8JBV7Q8NLY5AlamjBgzkA2SFv5p9mHzZhqNKHCakJLT9Cf9791fex9DS4Hy5ipOk-3D))

---

## 10. China's Push for Its Own Chips (SMIC, CXMT, Huawei)

* **Alibaba unveiled a new AI training chip** (Sep 22). Bloomberg called it China's most powerful. CEO Eddie Wu said his "primary objective now is going to be AGI," and Alibaba plans to invest in **20 gigawatts** of computing power. Bloomberg's Peter Elstrom: "The Chinese companies, of course, would like to have more access to the NVIDIA chips... But Alibaba wants to be able to offer these chips that could do training the same way that Huawei is aspiring to do." ([Bloomberg Tech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgmyl4xQ5ZGLuJC7jqhyVTz0c6fu9Da20Khgni0FPIf5xLFAqySg3EaZVF2qZW-2FFcNwS7xjul05cjwr4EoI-2Buwqewstknj5dm4CD534knXGbQ-3D-3D0XQu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2F2pOo6D2czZ5dhtKeYp-2BE3AuDD7-2BgBgtW6AkMk0xn-2Fe03KEivAZ78CXUzEs1NrwbiWpaUurM4SzaXgxWVyRAmE4QgsPlvMpV-2FtRoYFq9T-2B3HDYkw2BXV-2B6BR9SQD7S1q71pMcxfB2IpemdFqtPbUBg-3D))
* **CXMT** is now the fourth major memory maker and has meaningful HBM output for China's domestic market, per Rodney Lake. That is a longer-term competitive factor for Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung. ([Market News with Rodney Lake](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj9qRc3PncPYmxStIKNkZNheE-2Byvln-2BXnqozHdlE0RKet64z9HW03NkL6cU63FwEmjbCscFoXSqGaHhRuaAjJI-2FQNDHyvWx94GZ-2BSpyctBejQ-3D-3DWA0G_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkeyRhaAKh-2FffkxI4HCledP8IDAMfJpX6Am4C8lUEk6t1R4QeoSXcLP7XRMqa86GHG0HMVfBFEuyuQBjSAmYv7-2Fk9tjThiA65b0uS6KFg7ER6E-2FQO2ghVGnu8bA-2B3G4E4yEm9xr8jUnLz1LdrVujiihWs-3D))
* **Huawei's gap is narrowing but still exists.** John Liu said Huawei's chips "are getting much closer in performance and do a pretty good job when it comes to running the models, [but] the training part of it is still in the U.S.'s hands." ([Big Take Asia](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgiucaqNnsN1eAahBbtO0xkPHMEq5j3wtw-2Bc-2FTGT672UHTjxANMXy-2FK5KBzaXTn-2FFDr-2FHSf7fDoZLJWHLw813FDko4SdtWmxwlsU6sAUIKaWQ-3D-3D69SP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke-2BIh8Pb20v4fdmprsaAZusQmMeeUqtITZnH96QWl31mnIUiUkNTcy-2FeKZrzErzmHMxvsoKDGp0DZpNZs1caAPpowxdk3SdmfaYvbdJmF-2FpdMVwQZFiZHgOwbRnhTcdtx0Fb2uJGpldQsXO-2F7tqn33es-3D)) Dan Ives estimates Nvidia's third-best chip is still about a year ahead of Huawei. ([The Compound and Friends](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhM0Hl-2BncBjoHRoz9QCN2ldo5ZCJYljo6yiar4-2FvcFoq93xrSQ6yBytSyFBGGghKxBFRDZRePrJEba251JbEwmrZQWjycXMK76xAZgUPwn73w-3D-3DdHk9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke8X9Y58fD3NLI1RUNbnscsM4pShAa9vjUJaPTn5-2Fs8Z3v7SDP44RtgVavgc08I7qfjI0RGUbwebnDS4hcQbU19CCdQRRHxjKD9hNqU0jw4qEDq1YBJgUE4P7RfdyWEpYMDXEd-2B0kSZDkFCdGRC-2FZPVw-3D))
* **Chinese open-source AI models are spreading.** Jensen Huang said Chinese open models "are now being used by 80% of the American startups," and called it "terrific." ([Hard Fork](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3DDBFk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke6wCGEV9mrCdhwvSsjAAgrJKGgX97GiP8ZdguXa01BKQtziLOgtqCnvP0YcoKcDqEVWPbIrQ7Wye88b-2FZkIhquo7GHsWyoYAq2SPBKFQEE3ifnoRVv-2F-2B3pUhz5RowDOKUWBB0LBcSkIcXHGhl0UlOss-3D))

---

## Earnings Reactions and Previews

| Ticker | Reaction / Setup | Key Quote | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU (reports Sep 30) | Consensus about $51B revenue; EPS about $31.49; expected EPS growth about 940% YoY | "I haven't heard one plausible evidence that memory pricing power is eroding, not one." | [Futurum Equities Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3Db451_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke4uFxIddZm7vrvg00Q8TM0-2Be00sr-2Bn6T7vXuw-2FRquMMI8Fr6hadYkhsDCo-2FTnin5-2Fk0DF3pOFKLTfkpHYzuj13SHY4cqgmhrjubTr1Le-2ByKPkmn-2FCZ5qLzjilwuHqeyfc0OjLtefp-2FvGBG8WkEe441w-3D) |
| MU | Main risk is pricing guidance | "If they say we're going to have one more good quarter and then... the pricing is going to go down... you could imagine that really negative reaction." (Ed Carson, IBD) | [Stock Market Today With IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjixBx5X4yCuFQoKqlUbWVLrijxm6jBEeGWnbj4Y9G4z1YZKmSiDPb3wxoLTVpo5TwPoOnut34tpg1IXZw-2BQdyGdKQTGphChd-2BDCFByqGNPlw-3D-3D-pBI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkexPWOCf3ykMeLZFUIrmRKg1qBGxXe9tW2QaNkNfwp7Hk1UkcuHYMGzIWM0A8zI40BCyCFqrmbWdmQ-2FtHc7uEfc9ai4kGPlc9vARjowUVurcFJWHuCy6q3HdbX-2FxeTfyVEZe1CRmk95nYjinVodIjnBA-3D) |
| MU | Valuation support at about 7x next year's earnings | "Kind of hard... to understand why it would go materially lower from here." (Mike Coe) | [CNBC's "Fast Money"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgEgHYanMdBysEo7ZFTe6TRti1iGWRNJvCTPip6E5GIbEj2QiK248V9UoGMDJ-2FUxsWGLmBq6gg7oCGkybIR5-2FufA-3D-3DwQNI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke4OCD3j7Sy-2Bn62BC4Bdw5dN-2FxfGvxV5AlN9MMluvqTlEWZbJ5nSdmubV5CqK3scaCKMwes-2BqSscmjM-2BVx4ZL-2Bz7-2BEkOX2469YSBCv1UVk1e2tMAthk2Iiy4mjgyUAK7w0Arbd1vPFw-2FzUfI7JpnB3rM-3D) |
| AVGO | Q3 $29.6B (+86%); Q4 guide $34.8B (+93%); shares weak on Google multi-sourcing | "That's not supposed to happen." | [The 7investing Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT30blD3z-2BNLXaMWKrH9WSfJnec8rnaylZcdEe8xXs26s-2BjZO-2FTkZQDCYM19j-2Fwi-2FB7syVGPKppRG5AyPr7nTk1t9M1feDWiN1ZHGRi15hig-3D-3DlQ9e_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke4APlEGC1xzpXEDICE8Mj8KmMjkVJy0Yh0J2r3mfdrXIqUiYEAqRtx-2Fj1cxC-2FN2vii6-2FCvgH9l-2BLdYhmo3oG7A7IE2Rdoo6GWxaxVt9vZ3WAJc1HcofmJN0YPMXzAWcn-2BBD0eRBw4QUSDYVpZfXkBu4-3D) |
| NVDA | Called cheap at about 14x CY2027 | "It's a cheap stock. It's right in the middle of the picks and shovels trade." (Chris Grisanti) | [The Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiaAhgBvzT2crMejL-2B2WPLEElOtzXsuzcq5L6ynuJB4hML67cTkFT-2BjDrQRQhAOVKQDeRkx1cg0S1z6MSuZ3SMhGiqw3IJx9Fem-2BjMD8X9W8g-3D-3Dp9pc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke62gXEMF1H75vAtYOcxhc4v-2FNivdTRKqZ4s4wQeUbjq4a6a768Bh2ob4vg0jZU0Kix0ylo1KistTh0dByHHpHE2RCPOkyF9h5cfpM175wqCsDgLIMdDJfryTTbfCeNdl4Lz6kYm7U-2F4A6IsWN5e4eNs-3D) |
| AMD | Multiple seen as demanding | "Priced for no mistakes." | [Futurum Equities Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3D_34Y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6FkewwoahpLOv-2B4WUB6eq0RTi4Mvkzj5ckE1nSieqIY-2B-2F23bbiuPKiDw5nidBnJTa-2BP4IlIX95D7Keeur2fkgx9wih8GS-2FIsqgKyn-2Fa4cCQ21SB6YZevBXS0r4S2Sh5H22w-2Fcz96jzjQjHev-2Ff2kdGkxzo-3D) |

---

## What I'm Watching Next Week

* **Micron fiscal Q4, Wednesday Sep 30 after the close.** Watch the price outlook for the November quarter and beyond. Mentally adjust the Q1 guide for the 13-week versus 14-week quarter. Also watch HBM4 share (about 20% today), updates on long-term customer contracts, and capex guidance, which signals when new memory supply arrives. Expect SK Hynix, SanDisk and Western Digital to move in sympathy.
* **The July lows in chip stocks.** Phil Rosen's line in the sand: a break back below the July lows would make him question being overweight equities.
* **Bond yields.** The 10-year Treasury touched about **5.2%** on Friday ([Stock Market Today With IBD](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjixBx5X4yCuFQoKqlUbWVLrijxm6jBEeGWnbj4Y9G4z1YZKmSiDPb3wxoLTVpo5TwPoOnut34tpg1IXZw-2BQdyGdKQTGphChd-2BDCFByqGNPlw-3D-3DaK-x_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWE8tnqrIqPskE2OYdE2fVvkAu99AKpxXhvlOiJR6Fke2jiwlaXu7HsW3XLZexfOFKT2heLlbL2oL3se3SkIF-2FY5xBgQ1Bz8hzbOHTJIesDBstI3-2FO7RTpmcXzKH3HFjHRqzNLk6Jl0sDBCO8CsQxigZ1iHfO3wFbHKBrqbHvOvdZs1l11WJfXYobrCvA8UkNQ-3D)). Higher borrowing costs matter for a build-out that is increasingly debt-funded.
* **The September jobs report, Friday Oct 2.** Closing Bell's hosts flagged it as the key macro data point and a test for the Fed.
* **Fallout from Oracle's force majeure.** Watch whether other data center projects are delayed or cancelled, and whether hyperscalers keep their capex plans.
* **US-China follow-up.** Watch whether China confirms the trade-truce extension. Next meetings are expected in November and at the G20 in December. Any new tariffs on semiconductors or equipment bans would hit the equipment makers that get 30% or more of sales from China.
* **The Broadcom-Google relationship.** Any further news on Google spreading TPU work to other suppliers.

---

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