# Everest Starts Walking Away as Reinsurance Rates Near the Floor - Insurance Pricing Turns - Week of September 21-27, 2026 > A synthesis of what insurance and reinsurance podcasts and executives said at Monte Carlo about softening pricing for the week of September 21-27, 2026, built around Everest's reinsurance CEO Jill Beggs saying the firm has already pulled back from certain layers and programs as rates near adequacy. Brokers and underwriters split on how much margin is left ahead of the January 1, 2027 renewal, with a Brit underwriter warning parts of the market are already priced below adequacy. ## Insurance Pricing Turns ### Week of September 21-27, 2026: Everest Starts Walking Away as Reinsurance Rates Near the Floor --- Last week the reinsurers said the price cuts had gone about as far as the math allows. This week one of them showed what that means in practice. In the biggest single piece of Monte Carlo coverage so far, a documentary-style special from *The Voice of Insurance* with more than 20 executives, Everest's head of reinsurance said her firm has already pulled out of some layers and programs because the price no longer pays. That makes Everest the first US-listed carrier we track to speak on the record in weeks. A Brit underwriter went further and said parts of the market are already priced "beyond rate adequacy... downwards." The brokers, as usual, have a simpler pitch for buyers: the same cover, for less money. ## TL;DR - **Everest is walking away from some business, not just cutting price.** Jill Beggs, CEO of reinsurance at Everest (EG), said the market is "getting closer to that line, that rate adequacy line," and that Everest's "numbers are down not only because of rate decrease, but we have had to pull back from certain layers and certain programs." She expects the top line to fall (**[The Voice of Insurance, Sep 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgfdQP3cZTPQi3hvwhndXWYdz9HsQAFyQhd12pCEHdZusoVKOjew7Cmafm8D1994EUKcAhFmib-2BJooiM5Fb2sIFI7ZK-2Fj7hdEiURUTK-2FryWpQ-3D-3D8620_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7Ji-2FtNwcusN4QqCiE-2BjjWIyb9TXsFuY-2BYR6FxF8UT5an-2BN-2FcvGdLxLDmCu9uAfGUkTigD2s-2FRGXCrDibbJqz3ceJACqfllJ46AldAFYV2T0AFJE6YBHxLpmYphcbcWevSg-3D-3D)). - **By one broker's count, the reinsurance industry is now just about covering its cost of capital.** Howden Re's David Flandreau tracks 32 reinsurers and says the gap between what they earn on their capital and what that capital costs them is "close to even." Lloyd's performance chief Rachel Turk added that the market's 10-year return on capital is 9.9%, short of its 12% target: "That's not brilliant" (**[The Voice of Insurance, Sep 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgfdQP3cZTPQi3hvwhndXWYdz9HsQAFyQhd12pCEHdZusoVKOjew7Cmafm8D1994EUKcAhFmib-2BJooiM5Fb2sIFI7ZK-2Fj7hdEiURUTK-2FryWpQ-3D-3DEQQX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7JOWWMo7-2Bbz3WY7FLm2LDFmhy6jaDj3yZikFiGSy0JhewZdnZ0REAdHrzXto3l0Rb-2FnW9UDAhALcAMroUbWxQhx0pS38SYdrod3MqK0PyAd5vSU-2FjWdDmUHScpY8ajUBlA-3D-3D)). - **The Gulf war loss keeps getting bigger, and the fine print is tightening in response.** Trust Re's Yassir Albaharna put war and political-violence losses in the Middle East at "maybe three, maybe four billion dollars." Reinsurers are "clawing back" on exclusions and on contingent business-interruption cover (which pays when a supplier or customer's site is hit, not your own) (**[The Reinsurance Podcast, Sep 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2B9SNJql9I-2B8QUXEy0nWnnjihWeWAFqM5pfrpYIjLq2hs7QFKszkNIH34jS4VR9Rc8we7iYFnivqik8Naoe9HyWwWk89al9HCViCzqJsu1-2BA-3D-3DBxUp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7INTUR0m6FLuhJRGkUOHuikURdWDCQLfBMk1hSBl-2FBS1gUJCKztgPoTRtSM1j40onpKF8HNzrOESfYz0vW3uR0jHWNN8i3n-2BesHJB-2BVcRAfabHP4y9KbN63FHyBkOdXqfQ-3D-3D)). ## What's new **The big Monte Carlo documentary: everyone expects softer prices at January 1, but they disagree on what to call it.** *The Voice of Insurance*, [SpEp The State of (Re)insurance 2026](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgfdQP3cZTPQi3hvwhndXWYdz9HsQAFyQhd12pCEHdZusoVKOjew7Cmafm8D1994EUKcAhFmib-2BJooiM5Fb2sIFI7ZK-2Fj7hdEiURUTK-2FryWpQ-3D-3Dt6Up_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7Pbv374Q6X2tILZVb5WBqOV0Q0ztyF3U2mfemJyeku4y9rAzJQ5QuGILl4-2BDDGNYDVRMFTqzVEq4Jd0kttMtZ-2F2QLwKUw4JapQi5BxGhayfWIsEKiKCBzZ9E6xbwHf5jew-3D-3D), Sep 25. Host Mark Geoghegan (commentator) walked the streets of Monaco interviewing buyers, sellers and brokers, and set the scene with the key fact from last year. The January 1, 2026 renewal (the biggest annual reset of reinsurance contracts) "delivered what many have called two years of softening compressed into one." His summary of this year: "capital is even more abundant... yet, for the first time in a while, I heard the word fragile used more than once." Howden Re's David Flandreau, Head of Industry Analysis (a broker, operator/insider), opened with what he called "a paradox." Country risk premia, bond yields and inflation are all rising, and "2025 was sadly the year of the most combat deaths since 1994... but if you look over here on this other side of the page, reinsurance pricing is falling." In plain terms, almost every other kind of capital is getting more expensive, while reinsurance (which is really a form of rented capital for insurers) is getting cheaper. The descriptions varied more than the facts behind them: - **"Disappointing"** on property, said Duncan Dale, CEO of Lloyd's underwriter Dale Underwriting Partners: "Disappointing level of correction that we've seen in the last six months or so. Casualty, different market completely. Still struggling to keep ahead of the loss trends in pricing, but improving." - **"Normalization"** was Everest's word. Jill Beggs: "We see the market moving from a period of correction to normalization... At some point, does it tip into a place where rates are inadequate?" - **Caught out by the speed.** Lancashire CEO Alex Maloney: "I definitely think we were surprised in the pace of change. We didn't expect that. And I don't think we're alone in that view." He also gave the line of the week on why better data doesn't guarantee better discipline: "I have the data to lose weight, Mark, but I don't always do that." - **No hurricane in sight.** MSRe's chief underwriting officer Jörg Brunetsky pointed to what's missing: "Normally, we sit here sometimes looking with a hurricane pointing at Florida or somewhere, and this time there's nothing. So it's certainly a market where clients have choice." - **"The same thing for less money."** Richard Dudley, Group Chief Broking Officer at BMS, gave the plainest summary for buyers: "in most lines of business, clients should expect to get the same thing for less money." **Everest speaks, twice, and describes a firm pulling back on price-driven business while pushing into specialty.** In the documentary, Everest's reinsurance CEO Jill Beggs (operator/insider) drew a clear line: "Right now, we think that there's adequacy in the marketplace, but we're getting closer to that line... If it falls below, in certain cases, we will have to pull back. And we have done that." She was frank about what that does to growth: "Overall, the top line probably comes down because of rate decreases and some areas that we're pulling back in." Everest is trying to make up the gap with new kinds of deals: parametric covers (which pay out automatically when a trigger like a wind speed is hit), renewable energy, and treaties that bundle different lines together. Three days earlier, on *The Voice of Insurance*, [Ep317 Jason Keen CEO Wholesale & Specialty Everest Insurance: No time to be stuck in the middle](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjl0JG4UMJCVmCewqrfKsWAL-2FCP8sMRVYVmvtrC4ZgFGg1EBv1s3ozP6WXYNStEY00QdfJ990qeFgUmQuAP3rn5BqVNzGkuU0I45QMIEycWOw-3D-3DXmfs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7NwW-2FSgEzWIGjXRaCjp6rXUGGSD0dTtBP2yYKbvwSPkNulszBE9j5BhAvF3KVNZmnj1236hQOvmwUWss-2FdSaVMkbslN4IjsPBqYIW6uZ2Fzf9uXAHetaYQDEM6fgZauMNA-3D-3D), Sep 22, the other side of Everest gave the same message from the primary insurance side. Jason Keen, CEO of Global Wholesale & Specialty (operator/insider), runs a business "closing in on about 4 billion" in premium across 26 product lines, split roughly 60% US and 40% international. On core property and casualty: "particularly challenged at this point in time... particularly property and more from a rating perspective. We're seeing terms and conditions creep for sure, but the rating environment, the reductions are relatively accelerated." He picked up the distinction between how much prices move and whether they still earn a profit: "People talk to you about the difference between rate and rate adequacy. And I think that both are getting challenged at this point in time." Where he is growing is specialty lines (credit, political risk, surety, aviation, marine, energy, construction), which he says don't move with the property-casualty cycle and have been "a real success story in 26." **How close is the floor? One broker's measure says the industry is at breakeven on its cost of capital, and one underwriter says it's already gone below.** Back in the documentary, Flandreau explained the yardstick Howden uses: the "economic value-added spread," meaning the return on invested capital minus what that capital costs. "When you look at that, we're close to even... I'm talking about an average of 32 carriers that I'm measuring. So I would say the median is close to neutral, and there's obviously a big spread around that." Reinsurers "are generally still hitting their KPIs" after three very strong years, "but looking forward... there is some apprehension there, and rightly so." Simon Bird, Group Executive Underwriter at Brit (operator/insider), thinks some of the market has already gone through that line: "we're going beyond rate adequacy in certain areas. Downwards." A couple of years ago the phrase was "bumping along the bottom"; now, he joked, "we are delving below the ocean floor." Specifically: "open market property, be it US or international... has weakened dramatically in the last couple of years," and cyber is "constantly under pressure... there are definitely segments, I think particularly in the US market, where it'd be better to step back." SiriusPoint CEO Scott Egan named another: "aviation is a great example of that, both on the insurance and in reinsurance side, where for me, the market is underpriced." Duncan Dale said an old hope never came true. The industry once believed computer modelling would create a pricing floor, but "it turned out to be a flaw spelled F-L-A-W," driven more by "company motivation of whether they want to continue growing" than by individual underwriters. Bird also had the sharpest words for the new money coming in: "there are people queuing up but we can't honestly deploy it... it's the backward looking nature of so much money that seems to come into this market that I think is verging on tragic... we look at three to four positive closed years and everyone thinks it's a gravy train and they are perfectly mismatching the cycle." **Lloyd's: "fragile," with rate adequacy "declining pretty quickly."** Rachel Turk, Lloyd's Chief of Performance and Strategy (operator/insider), appeared in the documentary and in her own interview on *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #69 – Rachel Turk: More Capital Isn't Always Better](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj79Qg0PAXU2-2FATGLO-2FXU-2FTyPwAQNSWD5wzkqZHEw97M2s0a-2B6OnNSXkNOC540YpCWvsn9LRR-2B-2FgdmUHLvWOYkt5HUVuWV1GjI-2BIa4fDOrDrw-3D-3DmhOh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7FgumkBfbLYrH5JyoVxRdI40A5oHY1uz7ogjozkFZKMN4NaqSiVXhfJxn7-2B44T1GXC-2FwRuBDq-2BYy1wXCUMaucPSEsm6SLQbo2Hl-2F59YDP-2BVAjl7-2Bj2rz0BbmcveeB66Vqg-3D-3D), Sep 25. When Geoghegan asked why she'd use the word "fragile" when broker reports talk of record capital, her answer was about long-term returns, not today's balance sheet: "we've had four years of really good return on capital and six years of very poor return on capital... the 10 year return on capital is 9.9%. That's not brilliant. I mean, we have a long term target of it being 12%." And the risk: "if you have an active Natcat, a very active Natcat season, I think all bets are off." She was also candid about how little the market has reacted to last January's steep cuts: "there's a lot of talk about rates and disillusion with how fast rates are probably declining. Not seeing much in the way of action to turn it around." In her own interview she added data points on where Lloyd's business is growing. Portfolio solutions (broker-run facilities that take a slice of a whole book across many classes) are "about 9% of Lloyds total, which is actually growing from, I think it was about 6% last year," and "are all performing better than the open market book." Reinsurance is only "about 15%" of Lloyd's. The London Bridge 2 vehicle, which lets outside investors back Lloyd's risk, has done "30 or 40 odd transactions." Her caution is that this outside money "may behave differently than trade capital," making decisions based on "the economic cycle and the two don't necessarily track." On data centres she saw more talk than willingness to pay: "A lot of talk, a lot of hype, quite a lot of people willing to have a go, not seeing as much demand... the client goes, well, I'm not willing to pay Y at the moment." **Casualty is still the big unresolved argument, and a broker says it isn't softening like property.** *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #70 – Carla Moffett & Sam Sweeney: Casualty Isn't Softening Like Property](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjB7UCcfbTuRA55CNR56uKPB45DE4-2Fy9a2Z1l8oxB0y9cSyK6cB7UB9lHVvpIkSZ0J6v8r0EWDsBBRV8Pi-2BmRPhIKOb50wF1zDX8Vmus8GFeA-3D-3Daza4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7Kzdfm5DBd-2BmdCWApiIg7qTEAUNgZKOqcSipp3lpEB-2Bnj8mgCMAVD-2FkfHpcZL5IS2pKbxY5pt9mXYZSIEKIw0rOUZBOQtNzTnU1tbmYegzPooi2-2BKwt70Lu4KcbV-2Beg5og-3D-3D), Sep 25. The two Lockton Re brokers (operator/insider) said capacity is ample in casualty (liability insurance, where claims can take years to settle) "but we don't necessarily see the same level of softening that we've seen in some of the property lines," because "there is a little bit more uncertainty and it's a little bit more intangible... in terms of how we quantify where we currently sit and the margins that the reinsurers are achieving." Reinsurers are rewarding insurers that can show their approach to "defending those claims, reserving early, paying claims quickly." One notable detail: they are "certainly not seeing a whole bunch of re-insurers coming in looking to put exclusions, blanket exclusions" on AI liability, because "silent AI" already sits inside professional liability, D&O and general liability books. The documentary showed just how split the market is on casualty: - **The bull case.** Howden's Flandreau has been "relatively pro-casualty" for three years. Looking at US general liability, "I don't think that everyone will have lost money. I think these will be some good accident years," because "pricing has been going up to record levels" and first-year IBNR percentages (money set aside for claims that have happened but not yet been reported) "reached a record in 2025." - **The cautious case.** Hannover Re's Clemens Jungsthöfel: "social inflation, the legal environment is still a major topic in US casualty business. Let's not fool ourselves." (Social inflation is the rise in claim costs driven by bigger jury awards and more lawsuits.) He wants rate increases "at least in line with loss cost trends" and disciplined limits "to avoid volatility from single large verdicts that we still see." His current read: "discipline is mostly holding." - **Flat.** Apollo's James Slaughter: "adequacy is holding flat... if we were to see rates start to slow, I would be very nervous that casualty isn't going to bottle up some pain for the future years." - **The sceptic.** AXA XL's Renaud Guidae: "You have lots of skeletons in the cupboard... I wouldn't say that casualty is out of the woods yet." - **Nobody knows.** Marsh Re's Ed Hochberg: "If you get 10 sets of actuaries looking at a set of numbers, you will come up with oftentimes 10 different answers." His forecast for January is "a little bit of an inertia" and "some churn within panels." **Structures are loosening more slowly than price. Multi-year and aggregate covers are back on the table.** A soft market doesn't only show up in price. It also shows up in where the reinsurance starts paying (the attachment point) and in what it covers. SiriusPoint's Egan expects "attachment points will come under debate as we go into the 1.1s," but "I see less, not completely zero, but I see less softening in what I would call some of the structural aspects." That's where the 2023 reset did its real work. The broker side described products returning after four years away. Alex Kazanjian of Augment Risk: "we actually saw the first structured whole account XOL, and that's something that we haven't seen for a very long time." The reason was that a client "getting 10% rate reduction on their underlying whole account... need[s] to fill that premium from somewhere." Simon Headley, a reinsurance CEO interviewed for the documentary: "The windows for reinsurance are generally wide open on most things, including structures and covers, multi-year aggregates... that weren't necessarily available a couple of years ago." Sompo's Alessa Quain, speaking as a buyer, said "a lot of people backed away from doing ag covers when the market was hard" and that is exactly what she wants back. (An "aggregate" cover pays once a run of smaller losses adds up past a threshold, not just after one big event.) **The Gulf war loss estimate rises, and reinsurers tighten the fine print.** *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #64 – Yassir Albaharna: Risks Cedents Didn't Expect](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2B9SNJql9I-2B8QUXEy0nWnnjihWeWAFqM5pfrpYIjLq2hs7QFKszkNIH34jS4VR9Rc8we7iYFnivqik8Naoe9HyWwWk89al9HCViCzqJsu1-2BA-3D-3D5DkH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7PFfHFdp5sBAAPSvkupCWjSWm32qGWOx2il7-2BLDyGh4YRePBY0VCpw6timAkf4kEpjQ0mLJU-2B77tz-2B54Z1ltbT4XYGWCUhvWX-2F4cXXBhzAZPARvYk3073Etkbr2ZezN82g-3D-3D), Sep 22. Yassir Albaharna of Bahrain-based Trust Re (operator/insider), who has attended Monte Carlo for "almost 37 years," said the global market remains soft because "it's a capacity driven... There's a lot of hungry mouths out there." The Gulf is different. "We are talking maybe three, maybe four billion dollars of losses, war, political violence related losses that are going to materialize, if not by end of this year towards the next year." The response: "we are seeing some clawing back on some of the clauses, particularly on the political violence covers regarding exclusions, regarding the extent of contingent BI." Regional insurers (the "cedents" who buy reinsurance) "see exposures and they need more protections," but "very few reinsurers are willing to extend... Because a lot of these risks are either not well modeled and or have been off the insurance market for years." He predicts "a consolidation mode over the next year or two" in the region. ## The debate Both sides were voiced this week. What changed is where the argument sits: it is now about whether prices are still adequate, not whether they are falling. **The "there's still money to be made" side.** Lancashire's Maloney: "on a relative basis, I still think most products are in a really good space... let's not get too depressed about it." Egan: "There's money to be made." The capital backers agree. Argenta's Robert Flach (who places investor capital into Lloyd's syndicates, operator/insider) said in the **[Voice of Insurance documentary](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgfdQP3cZTPQi3hvwhndXWYdz9HsQAFyQhd12pCEHdZusoVKOjew7Cmafm8D1994EUKcAhFmib-2BJooiM5Fb2sIFI7ZK-2Fj7hdEiURUTK-2FryWpQ-3D-3DWruv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7LMr8tzPYeXCXg6TreGxdZk6cJF0PpkmPfHRyc2IUN-2FHhWXvoEHVqZcFjTCK9J8tOyVsDFKxhWLHx9yiTeWvO2DWWjIR87ZppEoXcZCF4M5zPUPlsNvgTngjm2a19F1zxw-3D-3D): "Yes, absolutely, rates are coming off, but the level of profitability that our clients have made... is sufficient for them to believe that despite rates falling off, there's still that margin in there." In Argenta's own interview on *The Reinsurance Podcast*, [Monte Carlo #71 – Kate Tongue & Robert Flach: Investors Are Arriving Late to Lloyd's](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvuWJrU1VYikli-2FOvFCgAA93bdd1C9ylIYu3C5ivMi-2BIkDb-2F8uzy-2BnDNoowtWX953NEmVJfW8tNwPin00IgKC8-2F13q0xQdgDQK-2B4PkH5y10Q-3D-3DCYIi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7I2WryiYUkTTE7V-2By7nVrD-2BrWUhDAFNWaq65H-2BftEjqo7c7UE-2BXJENbTDxCEGiRwQ72h-2B-2BnUMB-2FOo0iCvVB-2BxJXP1HIpMCu6Kv0-2BaVwkhmAyc2IVHnphNsDF2pUlnPMrfA-3D-3D), Sep 25, he was more careful about timing (see the ILS read-through below). Cathal Carr, founder and CEO of Oak Global (operator/insider), on [Monte Carlo #68 – Cathal Carr: Stop Watching Rate Change](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgv8p1ozAm3PoxFS3aMWrR7G32I-2BgZcfLLZQFtiVjWXoov3KYhhhLp6r-2BUM1AycXw-2F5yTKVQEMnqHExg6BC38l21anL5QHLKRi7W9rE7CUa4Q-3D-3D_o52_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7HIxPeI-2B9oXE-2BavqtpePX2SwUdxbt7ANuIdTZkkDDE-2FdM6PolbngMrjXM0WkC1SiI-2FY6k1D1I2KkrJltmOwywhfv2gPELwXlrgPm-2FEdSwRXYDyK3eP5O46RHb-2BAeTsMGyg-3D-3D), Sep 24, is still building fast in a falling market: "over 900 million dollars of income for 2026," 600 clients across two Lloyd's syndicates, "an 84 percent combined ratio in our first year" (meaning 84 cents of claims and costs for every dollar of premium). He told listeners to ignore the headline price change and look at "rate adequacy in terms of where does that rate end up? What is the resulting margin?" **The "we're at or through the floor" side.** Everest is already pulling back from some layers. Brit says parts of property and cyber are priced below adequacy. Howden's cost-of-capital measure is at breakeven across 32 carriers. Lloyd's says rate adequacy is "declining pretty quickly" and nobody is doing much about it. Brunetsky of MSRe raised the risk that isn't in the price: "It's a gray swan event. We kind of know it, but we tend to ignore it... That the wildfires stopped at the outskirts of Bordeaux was just by chance. So what if it goes in?... have we priced for this?" **The buyers want to change the subject.** Zurich's head of reinsurance buying, Paolo Mantero (operator/insider), on [Monte Carlo #66 – Paolo Mantero: Stop Talking Price, Start Talking Risk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj5stae-2F-2B3dBNFJ6wqRSHYHSBlyGAaBuwJAQNavdzcgp1MugtYHqFq9mUXmspwW16OQ734rvQlP2LgC5AphwI1OJC-2Blb2dSH-2BokYRKc0v8ndg-3D-3DvTO8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWR673Exgjsi5qSCJxQX0t3WK0xk93LN24Xba31BmLb7BQFKFdomCQ-2FPn23bn6FxMD2RFzQZ8v5Vl8ZZU9GGjkp1snTyC9YjxsUFWy4r-2F5TdC4x71rVsJcF7bhQObEDba2AqScSZq0Q9yTOvRCEE8cQMpJU86FCyEMeEvqIxGhEZQ-3D-3D), Sep 23: "we shouldn't talk about price... Because the price is demand-supply dynamic... because we talk about it, we're not changing it." He wants reinsurers to back the data-centre and infrastructure build-out, where "you have accumulation risk which is unprecedented." Zurich has "managed to secure a good amount of capacity" but "much more... can be done... with financial market capital as well," including sidecar-type deals that are "less of a arbitrage... and more of true reassurance." Our read: the bulls and bears agree on more than the labels suggest. Nobody said January 1, 2027 will be anything but softer. The disagreement is over how much margin is left, and that depends on which book you are looking at. The notable shift is that a US-listed reinsurer now says out loud that it is turning down business, which is usually the first sign of the pricing floor being defended in practice rather than argued in theory. Whether others follow is the question for Baden-Baden in mid-October. ## The names in play **Discussed on the podcasts this week:** - **Everest (EG).** The headline. Two senior executives (Jill Beggs, reinsurance; Jason Keen, wholesale and specialty) gave the most specific carrier-level read in weeks: pulling back from certain reinsurance layers and programs, reinsurance top line likely down, core property-casualty rates "accelerated" downward, specialty growing. - **Marsh McLennan (MMC)** via Marsh Re (Ed Hochberg), **Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)** via Gallagher Re (Laura Mowry) and **Willis Towers Watson (WTW)** via Willis Re (Neville Ching). All three spoke only about the reinsurance market they broker, not as investable companies. Gallagher Re launched a "digital risk practice group" last week covering data centres, AI liability and cyber, and Mowry said data-centre tower requests have "crept to 10 billion of capacity." - **Non-US names that spoke:** Swiss Re (briefly), Hannover Re, AXA XL, Lancashire, Brit, Convex, SiriusPoint, Lloyd's, MSRe/MS Amlin, Sompo, Apollo, Zurich, Trust Re, Oak Global. MSRe's Brunetsky also cited "Beasley Zurich" as the first of the soft-market M&A deals he expects to "pick up" over the next three years. **Silent this week:** **CB, TRV, AIG, RNR, ACGL** among carriers; every primary specialty / E&S writer (**KNSL, WRB, MKL, HG, SKWD**); and **AON** and **BRO** among brokers. Everest is the only US-listed carrier we track that actually spoke. ## Read-throughs - **Pure reinsurers (RNR, EG, ACGL):** Negative for 2027 premium growth, mixed for margins. Everest said plainly that reinsurance top line "probably comes down," from both rate cuts and deliberate pullbacks. That's the honest version of a soft market: disciplined reinsurers shrink rather than chase. If others do the same, January 1 pricing should find a floor sooner. If the capital Brit describes as "perfectly mismatching the cycle" keeps filling the gap, it won't. There is a partial offset in structure: attachment points and terms are loosening more slowly than price (Egan), and firms are rebuilding volume through multi-line and structured deals. - **ILS / cat-bond / alternative capital:** Still no dedicated cat-bond manager on the podcasts. But third-party capital was a theme across the week. Turk said Monte Carlo had "an awful lot of actually investors here in third-party capital... more than I think there has been in the past." Argenta says new investors are now "a little bit more measured," entering at "20 or 30 million a premium in year one" versus last year's attempts at "100 million, 200 million," and warned they may be "a year or two too late." Argenta is also pitching Lloyd's to the same investors who buy cat bonds, arguing a spread Lloyd's portfolio is "just as good if not better" and "less risky" than the more "binary" ILS market. Takeaway: capital is still arriving, but more carefully, and the people placing it are openly worried about timing. - **Primary specialty / E&S (KNSL, WRB, MKL, HG, SKWD):** No specialty or E&S operator spoke. The nearest read is Everest's Keen, whose wholesale business sits in this space: core property "particularly challenged," terms "creep[ing]," growth coming from non-correlated specialty lines. On casualty, Brit's Bird said lower general-liability layers and trucking ("working bodily injury exposure") are "really tough classes," while higher layers keep discipline through line-size compression, with no return of "these huge $25 million primaries." - **Brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, WTW, BRO):** Brokers are selling abundance: "same thing for less money" (BMS) and "you are going to get more for your money" (Willis Re). Two things support volumes even as rates fall. Hochberg expects buyers to be "not just banking the savings, but... recycl[ing] those savings" into second- and third-event covers, and "I think we will see net more risk transferred to reinsurers." Howden's Flandreau expects total reinsurance premiums to still rise this year, but "not... as much as they did for the last couple of years because we're not going to have that pricing tailwind." No US-listed broker spoke about organic growth or M&A as a company. ## What changed Three things moved versus last week. - **From arguments to actions.** Last week's floor case came from Ageas Re's head of underwriting and was arithmetic: 3.5% risk-free rates plus a new accounting rule make deeper cuts hard to justify. This week a US-listed reinsurer said it has already acted on that, pulling back from layers and programs, and a Brit underwriter said some classes are already below adequacy. The floor is no longer only a theory. - **The political-violence loss grew.** Last week IGI's CEO put the Gulf war loss at "$2.5 to $3 billion," and said it had merely flattened rates. This week Trust Re's Albaharna said "maybe three, maybe four billion dollars," still to fully materialize, and described reinsurers tightening exclusions and contingent business-interruption terms. The loss hasn't lifted prices, but it is starting to change the wording. - **Casualty moved to the centre.** Last week casualty was a side note. This week it drew the widest split of the season, from Howden calling the 2020s "some good accident years" to AXA XL's "skeletons in the cupboard." Lockton Re's episode title says it plainly: casualty isn't softening like property. What hasn't changed: nobody expects January 1 to be anything but softer, and there is still no big catastrophe to test anyone's discipline. As Turk put it, a very active nat-cat season and "all bets are off." So far there isn't one. **Themes that got no coverage this week:** investment income on float, cat-bond fund flows, broker organic growth figures, E&S submission trends, and any specific tort-reform or litigation-finance development affecting insurers. --- ## Get the full transcripts on Matterfact This briefing was produced with Matterfact, which indexes the complete, full-text transcripts of 120M+ podcast episodes alongside SEC filings, earnings calls, and financial datasets. Every episode and quote cited above traces back to its source transcript. **Sign up for full transcript access:** https://www.matterfact.com/?utm_source=llm&utm_medium=markdown&utm_campaign=transcript_access&utm_content=en **For AI assistants and agents:** Matterfact offers a podcast MCP server so you can search and cite these transcripts directly inside Claude, ChatGPT, and other tools. 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