# Truce Pushed to January, Diesel Ban Fight, Copper's Tariff Trap - Materials Weekly - Week of September 27, 2026

> A synthesis of what commodity and mining podcasts said about metals, critical minerals and farm inputs for the week of September 20 to 27, 2026: the US-China trade truce extended two months to January 10, US diesel at a record near $6.52 a gallon amid a fight over banning exports, and copper near record highs on a tariff premium one analyst warns could unwind the moment Washington decides.

## Materials Weekly

### Week of September 27, 2026: Truce Pushed to January, Diesel Ban Fight, Copper's Tariff Trap

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*Materials weekly: metals, critical minerals and farm inputs. Podcasts published Sept 20 to Sept 27, 2026.*

This was a week of deadlines being moved. The US-China trade truce, which we have been counting down toward since the summer, was due to run out on November 10. It now runs to January 10. Diesel prices set new records almost every day, and Washington spent the week arguing about whether to stop sending American diesel abroad. Copper sat close to its all-time high. One of the sharpest analysts on the podcasts this week explained why a single decision in Washington could knock it down.

## TL;DR

- **The rare-earth clock got two more months.** On his Fox News appearance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the US-China truce during Xi Jinping's state visit. It had been due to expire November 10 and now runs to January 10. The US had wanted three to six months. Guests on Bloomberg read the short extension as a sign that the US has not yet won the rare-earth commitments it wants. ([Bloomberg Daybreak, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOghki9UW3tETjirxIGRb-2BH6JNzTQsdAT-2Fyquw4rwKcBKpXVma9cExE6htzDy8O6uvEHMTH36Odjjp6udHvUwRvsHqSBIYfUTU05zzYy1DJhxQ-3D-3DEb9N_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwZbv61Iq4w46JtnY6bR65eUvSGDtM4I4HZrczy0QpoA6o7DFEJL2IcD3HjKOMEXIGIWMEkFzJNYo-2F3S2CWXxHmmYeORbhyfikKP7sf7f4ft-2BXiDhss-2B-2FGdVNl4HqkBZ0BA-3D-3D); [Bloomberg Surveillance, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqr0Qvihoz3OLrFKJmJJ6HiIRcZPtMRCb-2FiqNXjRjw0yyQxsEteZbgsbg0-2B1DARRe6ZgLyVQxk5Rph66OwaPOi8rfllTiWizD13Kv5TRYroA-3D-3DSrjB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwb11A8BQNFVKnAeMpDbigeJnLMif-2BG9Pl6JeAqL1rIm99xLn-2BOp76RQtQL6FTsCTzIsBEvYevMCaeM3vUuzXuSTMOxlk83NplV-2BP0edTdXNULbDFRGI2w2bc7N52Qunh0w-3D-3D))
- **Copper is near its record, but part of the price rests on a tariff that does not exist yet.** Bloomberg Intelligence's Grant Sporre described a self-feeding loop. Expectations of a US tariff on refined copper keep pulling metal into American warehouses, which drains London and Shanghai and lifts prices everywhere. If Washington settles the question either way, he expects a sell-off. ([The Northern Miner Podcast, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3DRZz9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwYVwGuac5x7LUUUGaZFI2XON6vaWGkHEwU1g967wqpvPeCEvZdMBjPTKOxQFCwg1RrRtyWaCW1KgY7EatJTgeuJWsKv-2BAPawqaoo9xQGpW2kKcEW-2Fpoz0QIj5Zx57c1YNA-3D-3D))
- **Diesel hit about $6.52 a gallon.** That is the US national average and an all-time record, up roughly 76% from a year ago. President Trump said he supports banning diesel exports. Farm groups want the ban. The oil industry and Trump's own Energy Secretary oppose it. ([POLITICO Energy, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLdkAKWNfqkHHc2H-2FYeny7w-2Bqac2H2hzG91CiK4Q-2BVr-2BiTUBI5nWr9q2f9XKoOrDm8wlmrkWqPgAZCQUw93h-2FY6IMCKBiE1F4Jb467RcJJnQ-3D-3DIGwp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwZ4QxLGXmbXsROHbyQP86X3BtaLAw8I-2F-2Bzp4KG-2F-2Bp6pwPUcHcwSmjoYYzYxo7xbZS0YGDdAMuw63dsuYqPz-2FFpdyYwRm4JJlGGMQpHj5tdPu37KZgDlq8cxMrG1EpkzQOQ-3D-3D); [Grain Markets and Other Stuff, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJMv8OgCn4wEZg19dad6ddnWe7nEFNtgUtDKXWzBX5dGEDiGEboIosCBJ0q5U9vOTIg0L7LueD3oohGueZ76BNXzVB8mE93lFSBT-2BTrtn0Ug-3D-3DZFpS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwfH3EFrlevyG3s4FLiSS2m1jNXGy9uxDDT7-2FnRdDbqtCAeMyqn6h6cil9mR5hsAI9O6mgT8t1tJc1JzbDmPiIa9zEUZZL9feeT3O6bXye7K6jsGRpap-2FBWqLrWLgDxBLMA-3D-3D))
- **Fertilizer is getting tighter on three fronts at once: sulfur, nitrogen and potash.** About two-thirds of the world's traded sulfur is missing. Nitrogen producers sold out their summer programs in hours. And the idea of replacing Canadian potash with Belarusian potash "rings hollow," according to StoneX's Josh Linville. ([RealAg on the Weekend, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjNtzz9kWG8pPFER1Y23TUL11IjhkinTOmHli1-2BrTVHyYz287gYWX13kk2c8bjKjTRu8TAwKFPaZ8c1zMI59cE0AM4doobRnqq3bBSe8ONptw-3D-3DN9xL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwaCB32z31lHkBnD00-2BD00MDja4kqAEZ5yHfVtJ4vY19CYufW5rba8UVN-2FaZC-2BeeDtTGQH3YjHZBaQ8NErrkwEPKCz5kSpctL4Dv0NxSITcKEgtBozSf4Xxi9mL8YxHM0Wg-3D-3D))
- **Lithium stockpiles in China have fallen for 30 weeks straight.** One analyst called that "a fundamental demand event," not a temporary blip. ([Rock Stock Channel, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3DeBHM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwRYYWek2tK6dKY9tF1FnZWfNTUxLx-2FjL0xuRjjtSFk481fvlA3la-2BsvKKhEFJ5Qj-2F9JODJHsCEtjm-2FMdzV9hox9F1CC5DYVSSrMECctIrOA9e0yuf-2Bi3UG3fxDbb9Z5ISw-3D-3D))

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## What's new

### 1. Copper: near record highs, with a trapdoor underneath

**Where the price is.** On The Northern Miner Podcast, the host read out the latest numbers. COMEX copper for December delivery (COMEX is the main US futures exchange) climbed as much as 3.3% to $6.84 a pound, "about $14,940 a ton." The benchmark three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched $14,710 a ton before slipping back to $14,650 ([The Northern Miner Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3DIFmB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgweCDZbenckWhZ1FRDjzscLnb-2FlsRZZPNZVK-2B0zaaOBNLY8dOXkaCl6-2FPd5dkowyUpm3528Kca-2BdGKmUT7gmEkIbb1xtzvF7kBCfXVp64UrShAFo9V8tB1xjEb58DQB3HZA-3D-3D)). Darrell Fletcher, a commodities trader, told The KE Report that copper was up "11 of the past 12 weeks" and "about 18%, 20%" higher so far this year. He said it "looks like it might be positioned to make another move" at the all-time high ([The KE Report, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTG-2F-2FhLG4CXT1hUrE-2FtC2EY8L9ic1X9FouPFHya0DPx76MhxUZtlv2mSZltUAsItJbLCbtXcacC5VOxcts9v14StP-2FgRu2puStAkLKD3mj-2BQ-3D-3DadCm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwTLYmpd-2FprnpoeGAQZZG-2BTQJMji4JwM0SQmVkJ6nHBEO4lGY63guAlbgIIlc6xrYLDjHKnCBSWdA4AKFES0lq51ljmrmXJkVnQxp55ty6dddsCxHjnDc0lZTH494h74-2B4g-3D-3D)). Marketplace put the gain for the year at 45% ([Marketplace, Sept 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhBok4Crlj2GRq8r2L9MgMJs9VAs4QNwiHCRTamqi6-2BEW9ifLN7Q6SmKbwnxgOjdPbwwzA1W-2FpJEhLSENFLbr8rRbyGhKspdr05Tn-2B9aPfplw-3D-3DgBMI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwR2JQvaKsOyu3PtmwUkrnixDblxiSTiy2nZo8BUaUYIIUVEX0i-2FfybJQ2SFOUlJHYE2MzL50vWDNq773flxVSsSY8tnP-2F4k3LwgzsEEYO2nMnFVLStEtE3bbuePC2E1mzg-3D-3D)). The two figures differ, probably because they measure from different starting points or use different contracts. Either way, the direction is clear.

**The physical market is genuinely tight outside the US.** The Northern Miner walked through the evidence:

- **Shanghai premium.** The Yangshan premium is the extra that Chinese buyers pay on top of the LME price for copper delivered to Shanghai. It hit $124 a ton, its highest in nearly four years.
- **Chinese refinery maintenance.** Several refineries are due for planned shutdowns in October and November. That caps any jump in China's domestic supply.
- **Backwardation on the LME.** Copper for immediate delivery now costs $26 a ton *more* than copper for delivery in three months. A week earlier it was $86 *cheaper*. When today's metal costs more than tomorrow's, buyers "cannot wait."
- **Not much metal free to buy in London.** Of the 255,900 tons in LME warehouses, 115,000 tons (45%) are already booked for withdrawal. That leaves just 133,725 tons actually available.

**Meanwhile, the US is running out of room to store copper.** COMEX warehouses hold 696,000 tons, about 69% of all copper in exchange-monitored warehouses worldwide. That metal was rushed in ahead of tariffs "that Washington has yet to impose." That pile has stopped growing. It posted its first weekly decline since April. Storage at the port of New Orleans, the main COMEX delivery point, is "largely full," with another 100,000 tons of African and South American copper due over September and October. Fletcher added a striking detail: one ship carrying African copper to New Orleans held metal worth about half a billion dollars, possibly "the largest notional amount of metal shipment... ever on record" ([The KE Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTG-2F-2FhLG4CXT1hUrE-2FtC2EY8L9ic1X9FouPFHya0DPx76MhxUZtlv2mSZltUAsItJbLCbtXcacC5VOxcts9v14StP-2FgRu2puStAkLKD3mj-2BQ-3D-3DCcEU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwXFthNm8gByIpFY0m9o3hH-2BxUyWwiVj81JoQhJnf89O-2Bgc3RlAEFgZVlGBbSLCATlk69R7AfC2-2B67zaOIqij351vjLp7QGtLxbCjzi9jaVn9hf-2FUpPHfhDR-2BJFWwvnaWnw-3D-3D)).

**The tariff trap.** This was the most useful copper conversation of the week. Grant Sporre of Bloomberg Intelligence explained that the rally is partly a feedback loop: "US prices go up, they pull the LME price up, more metal flows out that tightens the market even further." The loop breaks once the tariff question is settled. He put "a very low probability" on the US definitively ruling out a tariff. But even a small, confirmed tariff on refined copper would probably trigger a sell-off, because the market has "kind of" priced it in already. In his words, "Maybe not as big as, you know, $1,500 or $2,000, but you will probably get a sell-off as that kind of uncertainty that we're living with disappears." ([The Northern Miner Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3Duu8O_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwVKfQDgkQ1YbnC7UniW9OyHsvV-2BFybOBQJHOz4auOQgLfLWdCg3zFUiG7rARwCy1UoMX0C3uJskJtF9mQNIcQq3Sa5aQgvuyLlC2OUllZIlVJV-2FQbOp9lKUME5bPOWMQJg-3D-3D))

Sporre is also skeptical that the tariff would achieve its apparent goal of bringing copper smelting back to the US. Smelters are the plants that turn mined concentrate into pure metal. The tariffs in their current form are not enough to spur investment, he says, because smelting fees are so low. The one likely US restart is Grupo Mexico's Hayden smelter, which "could deliver anything up to 400,000 tons of metal, but that includes a lot of scrap." His more direct (and admittedly unpopular) idea is to tax exports of copper concentrate instead. The US ships concentrate out and then imports it back as refined metal.

Marketplace made the same point more simply. StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray said the rush to import refined copper before a possible tariff has made the market extremely tight outside the US. Sprott Asset Management's Jacob White added that copper's price now reflects "strategic end uses" such as data centers and power grids, not just housing and cars ([Marketplace](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhBok4Crlj2GRq8r2L9MgMJs9VAs4QNwiHCRTamqi6-2BEW9ifLN7Q6SmKbwnxgOjdPbwwzA1W-2FpJEhLSENFLbr8rRbyGhKspdr05Tn-2B9aPfplw-3D-3D-RVE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwYPskV88H2xdpKxnNcUG7W2Zbg2VoKPjv40i3Pn2dR4uHv-2FxyYALAabIQQf-2F0onSwWQYhDRoeljD-2BjeX46ZOYj1-2F2GKjZCLL31L8pUrJrD40-2Bbs-2Fl3aowLv3RYUQFiynZw-3D-3D)).

**Demand has held up better than expected.** Sporre admitted his own forecast was wrong: "My initial expectation was lots of uncertainty on growth. Copper demand is going to fall quite dramatically." Instead, the JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI stayed "well above 54" throughout the Iran conflict. The PMI is a monthly survey of factory managers, and anything above 50 means activity is growing.

**Sulfuric acid: less of a crisis than feared.** Copper miners that use a process called solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) need sulfuric acid to dissolve copper out of oxide ore. The Gulf supplies much of that acid, so the Strait of Hormuz disruption raised fears. Sporre said supply chains rerouted faster than expected. Russia's headline "ban" on acid exports is really "an export licensing regime as opposed to an outright prohibition." In Africa's Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), output is still rising, though more slowly than the 5% to 7% growth that was expected. One reason is the new smelter backed by Robert Friedland, which produces acid locally. Higher copper prices may even bring back idled oxide operations at big Chilean mines such as Collahuasi.

**One knock-on to watch: Chinese smelters could come under strain.** Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are the fees a smelter charges a miner to process concentrate. On the spot market they are now *negative*: smelters are paying miners for the right to process their ore. Until now, high acid prices propped up smelter profits. As acid prices ease, Sporre is watching for "extended maintenance periods, closures of small smelters."

**Supply problems keep piling up.** On Bloomberg Surveillance, Tarek Solomon of Calvert Research pointed to Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, where a mudslide killed seven miners. "Grasberg still isn't producing what it once should have," he said. Prices are "pushing $15,000 a ton or about $7 a pound." His summary of mining: "you have to run to stand still" ([Bloomberg Surveillance, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2CeT92sxRib3qRBLCisrO-2B-2BE-2BCpHngB6Pxa3qV3v9-2BQCaStmzMsuLkcZk0l9Ee9QQ7pC3xpM6suaUj34CTlL5H6TNewme0NAv2s6dzbG2AQ-3D-3DqrVq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwZ1hZgFQLAFg9eTJoVrVoFcEZgr6Ir0O3KfmHpV1jyU6a8YAUqe5IZrEknMMwadgjhODrnZD9fz-2FMJBrUBUkpR05-2F0dd1O0YKSz-2BzR0X2by1uq7SedMfsS-2Bz4S3tBWSDMw-3D-3D)). On the ITM Trading Podcast, Ian Harris made the incentive argument: "you are at the highest price you've ever seen in copper. And this year they're expecting total production to go down... a record high price and it wasn't enough to incentivize it" ([ITM Trading Podcast, Sept 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiqA5yFrVZjOfT4qpumG2DfvCs3dP-2Fz4rs4EWpbQC71mgu6DOUuI2Ns1f9FMTy8c9KuvLO73F3HutHHxGE3kf4nMo0kI2p6xLEYwlRACOHDFg-3D-3D2jjL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwdBiCrbCc0WdgXsAwTBEC0Lv-2BSxT-2Br1N7Uf1M-2Fgt2pJIZuLQKMbd931-2BSrmivsB490-2FGejpMaVesN3Z3VAUtlD41pIbmwN9pvkMObol-2FCTc6a-2BcFOc7nUu9150Od6y4pLw-3D-3D)).

### 2. Rare earths and export controls: the clock moves to January 10

**What happened.** During Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the truce. His own words were hardly triumphant: "I don't know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don't know whether we will just roll the current deal. There's some deliverables that have not been perfect on the Chinese side." ([Bloomberg Daybreak, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOghki9UW3tETjirxIGRb-2BH6JNzTQsdAT-2Fyquw4rwKcBKpXVma9cExE6htzDy8O6uvEHMTH36Odjjp6udHvUwRvsHqSBIYfUTU05zzYy1DJhxQ-3D-3DfcI8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwbsi0TrQhJ9t4E9IX6LBzrFuLohn7ivtoGQYR06rI1KlvjKfn5gSRK8U0TpgXqb8imeSBs9dsv7YRUXYJ8NiY8MaugE-2BnI8qxkfabFZR0UX72Rp2w0JnKywER01QiRz9oA-3D-3D)). Earlier in the week, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had signaled a three- or six-month extension was likely ([Bloomberg Daybreak, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiNGoiVy8vmaSxmljj6iBSRZiOfvdpMtmSr9tUW-2BbLl8mirf0kzQIDIgsy6CeO8I-2By51okbgjvgEi-2FQW5FuntTrQbUFgYrnuMt9LCVfPjufOQ-3D-3DygN9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwaMRnItzIp6Oi0iI1nSdyG-2B-2Fr1bUIIpqRfjLnWl-2BZtO4HlFRmwSGYAWUmieWBLHhJWzqqiREhvQtOPwT8uRH7l4tGUMCC8YQVOCEmxYysVCrb-2FXQAPd0ccLNAMpK9Wwn3g-3D-3D)). The Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast confirmed the new end date of January 10. It also noted the original one-year truce, agreed at the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea, had suspended both tariffs and rare-earth restrictions ([Grain Markets and Other Stuff, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiaaF5T-2BIfqYCaT7fH-2BRJmL6r-2FW8nfiOrz9nF3JZzPYIJNmoUB7ETwnmZOix5Hiat2RoZw2RNBeXomLyCwq1kJ2WqU4Tf4q1TX2WcZzHM798w-3D-3Dbnv3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwRN6jXWb2YCvkWUD52wVLwhhiqttgDdiaRwM9KE4Oz3Z0X4lY7OHGcTqkioo3Kz18DB2-2FklfBGT8YLw3a4i7n69QWni1UL4Pn9K-2FR0UavqJiYJ-2B9JSBlbi2U55iMPDuDMw-3D-3D)).

**Why two months, not six?** Lindsay Newman of Chatham House argued the short extension "plays very much to the U.S. hand." Two months carries Trump past the November midterm elections and the new Congress sworn in on January 3, after which he can "take stock and say, OK, where are my points of leverage?" China, which plans for the longer term, wanted a longer extension. She reminded listeners why rare earths are China's strongest card. When the US tightened export controls last year, China answered, "we're actually going to apply our so-called Trump card, which is around the rare earths." ([Bloomberg Daybreak, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOghki9UW3tETjirxIGRb-2BH6JNzTQsdAT-2Fyquw4rwKcBKpXVma9cExE6htzDy8O6uvEHMTH36Odjjp6udHvUwRvsHqSBIYfUTU05zzYy1DJhxQ-3D-3DgkFx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwSHNkCF8tKy2iv8MsPU3m0g83axPeJ9BGbSLdNT-2FDYI-2FVq81y30vlEi3oN26jmjRJ4UpG-2Bmb20-2F1X2x9qd4kMBVgjQrqrrxK-2B67wAaGm9uwvkD3YL12Dkgyx9Nvxi03gfQ-3D-3D))

A guest on Bloomberg Surveillance read it differently. She saw the absence of a deal as a sign that "we're not closer" on rare earths. "The access to rare earths and critical minerals is absolutely the most critical issue on the U.S. side. The negotiators thought they had secured... a commitment from the Chinese the last time the leaders met. It's clear they're unhappy with that." She called the delay "a disappointment" rather than a failure. She described the President's "North Star" as "domestic resiliency": never again depending on China for the materials the economy needs ([Bloomberg Surveillance, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqr0Qvihoz3OLrFKJmJJ6HiIRcZPtMRCb-2FiqNXjRjw0yyQxsEteZbgsbg0-2B1DARRe6ZgLyVQxk5Rph66OwaPOi8rfllTiWizD13Kv5TRYroA-3D-3DFMav_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwed1hVFKAFu2-2Fb-2F5xjcpUgmF-2FcfHtFnwGKPIv7bHM9uHhi-2Fyb3rZjkqVtxtLBTK62xcxQlekmN8tvS9Jj4ff3k-2Bw9l8jdLTd4LQEX5R34-2FdDT2TyjZfiKXFEidggMdV-2BUQ-3D-3D)).

**The history in one paragraph.** On The Long Game, the former national security officials Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer and their guests recapped how the truce came about. The US expanded export controls to cover affiliates of blacklisted Chinese companies. China "retaliated with some incredibly sweeping restrictions on rare earths and permanent magnets, ones that really threatened to cripple the global economy." At Busan, both sides agreed to suspend their most escalatory controls, and "that's what's been paused until today" ([The Long Game, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg3nroEeary-2F41wHHVThmnRlAbhITL-2FkzI7i-2Bwqio4NN0LF7q8wNeTu-2BSqAanG9X1dMWpWk7Qu4uT5cye6nUPVCSCjCUtnjX0ycLCjWhOfWzg-3D-3DweKm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwYmQSk8b11EUa-2F7JTob9IAhKffuX0XPZUaiGbZHIEAmeoRyhQRsM5j2-2BZ1vgLGmgFgTswy4H7ovTTsLrlFZ0tL7vwMqzH79BckHgfkba9A-2Fqxu5NUSuZGsgX79k3Ie7Jtg-3D-3D)). On NTD Evening News, Grant Newsham said China controls up to 98% of critical-minerals processing capacity, and the US wants China to "start selling us more rare earth minerals" ([NTD Evening News, Sept 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiObdq6pPOyo4Dn9WpD8ts8JDA3EX0bP1-2FPuVY-2B58O7jnbhBMED3vOjZN8sMHEa2kjceo3MyyWS0I1UOdL-2F1ZmXgLo11ThpPsM34XPcRdFlNw-3D-3Dt88Z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwdSrQEO-2Bq1yZGEQxYvK6V4WdnSWPuzAmaO0MBAR0hSTAKJWmb-2B5xzeuoiE3tGbExQJHRYpj0cmgUqaklvE6V7Syxt-2FPucIxxP8FYU-2BhClPUXJmFuHV2o0oyEhhzmLsURuw-3D-3D)).

**The US government keeps writing checks.** On Rock Stock Channel, the hosts (Howard Klein and Matt Fearnley of RK Equity) covered the latest details on VaultCo. VaultCo is the company carrying out the White House's "Project Vault" plan to build strategic stockpiles of critical minerals. It is funded with "$2 billion from the private sector and then $10 billion from the Ex-Im Bank," the US government's export credit agency. Glencore and Mercuria appear to be putting in about $500 million each. What VaultCo will buy is not yet known, "although I did hear something about cobalt." The takeaway: "there's a new buyer in the market for certain commodities." The hosts also flagged a separate $7 billion Ex-Im package for Argentina and a failed $300 million lithium-carbonate tender from the Defense Logistics Agency that could be revived ([Rock Stock Channel, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3Dega1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwURZGFeJzlApq-2BWO4IjudQVz8KbovKLtgfanBBNPGQFEyzr2Lg4fLH-2F-2BfDg9uwhwSEcb7yMNbLmbRFQ-2Bl8gcsrn8hXYNrZtORZvRb7r9xK4rK3Jxymtcr7IHCvpC80b5EA-3D-3D)).

**Antimony comes out of the shadows.** Antimony is a metal used in ammunition and flame retardants. Paul Andre Huet, CEO of Americas Gold & Silver, brought a bar of it to a conference: "This is the critical metal that is required in the US military. We need 50 million pounds... a year we need domestically, and then we need another 40 million pounds for our allies." The byproduct used to be "a penalty metal for us." Smelters docked the company for it. "Now we're not getting penalized for it, we're getting paid for it." The company works with US Antimony ([Company Interviews, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiMjqmbs3B8UNrRa8g-2Fl1oU3ZiqwEaw4TQlSyaxMlBkgFq9zD8bXowdBQ66HE91jB8fh-2F8CU7yf-2B6iKI4tRVPHuNQN3lGrGPcSjxTyZKX18Hg-3D-3DhiKl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwSYNS9Sfgqk-2FEUMMkGpXtpcG-2BlMk8devft7R8klomiB03uQtQebWFVJNMy4UD36lP4Pda93-2Bo2-2FS-2FoAjkATyR2zejclf-2BTWcxspVwGkqFu8caUJgdYitfJokbDJ8vwdYtQ-3D-3D)).

### 3. Battery metals: lithium quietly firming, nickel's case gets louder

**Lithium inventories.** Matt Fearnley of RK Equity: "if you look at the lithium inventories on a week on week basis, they have been declining for the last 30 consecutive weeks." That holds for every version of the Shanghai Metals Market data series, including the restated ones (last week's issue covered the debate over how those numbers are counted). "To me that's more than a near-term inventory rebalancing event. That's a fundamental demand event." Electric-vehicle sales outside China and the US are "up 94% year on year to July," and global EV sales are now positive for the year. His conclusion: the lithium market "is a little bit over-egged on the negative." He also reports "very significant strategic interest" and inbound calls from clients. Money is flowing again: Wildcat, Savannah and E3 all raised capital, and Global Lithium got a takeover bid. As he put it, "money is available for lithium, right? You know, at a price." ([Rock Stock Channel](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3DKZSl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwYg8OiFQ1M-2B93ikBxM-2FotY29fK4-2B-2FUJ0LPKVNB7PJfXfc9GAmTxm2tDOkzJWshGzXZmkuix4YGvrHmwSiEhPniTeDGRfSYuXCSeTg6Bwe3-2B1oDPIXuCSNjRnYVzH7bpnvA-3D-3D))

**SQM will not flood the market again.** The same episode discussed a BTG Pactual research note on SQM, Chile's lithium giant. Under its new deal with the government, SQM can produce up to 470,000 tons from the Atacama salt flat, but only by using direct lithium extraction (DLE), a newer technology that pulls lithium from brine more efficiently. Conventional methods recover just 30% to 40% of the lithium. The $3 billion "Salar Futuro" project is being treated by the BTG analyst as sustaining spending, not growth, and he forecasts no increase in tonnage. SQM grew from about 50,000 to 270,000 tons between 2018 and 2025 and was a major cause of the lithium glut. The hosts' view is that this kind of growth "can't" happen again. Separately, JPMorgan started covering Sigma Lithium with an "outperform" rating and a $14 price target.

**Nickel's "first deficit in years."** Martin Turenne of FPX Nickel said Indonesia, whose supply boom flooded the market, "wants to turn the taps down." With demand growing "5% to 6% per year" and supply "closer to flat," he expects "in 2027... the first deficit in the Nickel market for the first time in many years." His favorite indicator: nickel has historically traded at about 2.5 times the copper price, and "we're getting close to almost parity right now." Will that gap close through copper falling or nickel rising? "I would put my money on the latter." FPX's Baptiste project in British Columbia has received almost $10 million in federal support ([Mining Stock Daily, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh9RoLabVW3TEkGNv-2F1e0VunHUG38HXe0kLAmfdDgafJRGGM-2FspxLXf-2B40O4AHMnsLsyRAjiCl9jRxhW6oBtVcbDPgnspD8M7i3x1aQkGbRRg-3D-3DtBEk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwQgxx-2B3u876i-2Fo-2F5J3qP43cSH4jkKhalmgRZOOudP1woItBnVmThM3O5sCMPKF8P9KjDdrIA7O4op-2F8SxXVwaiYkA4vwGNlttjtavQ7iovvhOXNS6eWZteWYDH8Srq1Vhg-3D-3D)). Treat this as a company CEO talking up his own commodity, but the argument is worth hearing.

### 4. Steel, aluminum and tariffs: the Canada fight turns ugly

Coverage of US steelmakers was thin again this week. No podcast in our window discussed Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs or Alcoa directly. The trade story came through the US-Canada dispute instead.

- **"Our U.S. business is dead."** The Northern Miner relayed a Bloomberg report that new 50% US levies on Canadian aluminum products, on top of the existing 50% tariff, leave some goods facing a 100% charge. The CFO of Apex Aluminum Extrusions, a British Columbia firm that gets about 40% of its sales from the US, told Bloomberg: "Our U.S. business is dead. There will be nothing more crossing the border." ([The Northern Miner Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3DlxoD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwa-2BVrqPH5YuaOIWBywSdaInq-2FBRs0Us3PG73KbMjhCsqhzIW1fUpAP8KvG4M4D1j0APO9c9q7Ajolwf8yZIDgxxN8JhYllQi7ZGUhw9IeAJ40hv6KBvHfcizhsY-2Bq-2FYgeA-3D-3D))
- **Canada responds by speeding up mine approvals.** Prime Minister Mark Carney introduced draft legislation that could cut major-project reviews from a decade or more to about a year, by running federal assessments and permits at the same time. (Same episode.)
- **The "crowbar."** Jeff Rittener told Art of Supply that Section 232 tariffs are the national-security tariffs used on steel, aluminum and copper, and that they "will stay" for a long time. Separately, the President invoked a 1930s-era law (Section 338) to put an immediate 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods. Rittener called that "the crowbar." A deal "was ready to go on a Friday," but Canada rejected it and then imposed retaliatory tariffs ([Art of Supply, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2FaivtEcSuK8fnTUNT6p1oPrAINUvLaG6vXnEnPc5-2BKqNgvwb2qFF-2B0aCi8fMRRIzFDgUYjMSoVMPDm9yDUtULJs1whpFJICqRsQHEwu-2BKmQ-3D-3DQg7W_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwQipPXO24ItaBlcfi19OuL4kW2861fzL5prQZ-2FqDxI2OTd9Z46FlwlgWKQX7kWz34GEdNFXgz-2FTojAntasfaePw4ncJnxaF2AsuifQjnJYk0F86TR8ZlNkVINeDPkshF8g-3D-3D)).
- **A ratchet, not a pendulum.** Jesse Huebsch said on Decouple that each administration tends to add trade barriers without the next one removing them. The result is "a bit of a staircase, and that's probably the optimistic scenario." He called the current situation "an actual trade war and not just a spat" ([Decouple, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgQPUbqRUdct8t-2B4H4ypYdhNQz2jSqjnkMIFs3NtKJIv55uoHkuIZPWjws0c6O-2Fj1prnEZOPlN3o-2FoicjtlYN2qaUJsMe7IyoM2BZfZ6Ey8hg-3D-3DPqWS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwaFBzUprtIw7y0TdqRNygMrLPO2dVaB1SSDeHQsxfM7iQ27KU50hfC5L0tTB4ivHCWrCZ-2BCUihhlIf-2Fk-2FT318GmrMZxkqGl1luDIojWETnx5EDcnxJ2Fvlai3geuauxicA-3D-3D)).
- **Aluminum supply notes.** Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is back to about 80% of pre-war production after shutting three lines and being hit by an Iranian strike in March. In the US, Sporre singled out the Century Aluminum and EGA (Emirates Global Aluminium) joint venture, the "Inola project" in Oklahoma, as a sign of genuine investment intent, alongside Korea Zinc's "Project Crucible" ([The Northern Miner Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3DdqUV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwYhpvr9ikhTjnazk9-2FGaQdu0mSbYoEBtLj9ncKqYMNk9T-2BMg-2FIVgTunL17DKRMfY9a-2FxoH9T2WiIOANKWIm8EWVEpghW3nRV6-2BVXkzuVjS00gE6PgGKuwkvaA2J0UytNIQ-3D-3D)).

### 5. Fertilizers and farm inputs: diesel at a record, sulfur vanishing, nitrogen sold out

**Diesel: the numbers.**

| Measure | Figure | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| National average, on-highway | $6.52/gal, all-time record | [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLdkAKWNfqkHHc2H-2FYeny7w-2Bqac2H2hzG91CiK4Q-2BVr-2BiTUBI5nWr9q2f9XKoOrDm8wlmrkWqPgAZCQUw93h-2FY6IMCKBiE1F4Jb467RcJJnQ-3D-3DnekO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwZ43EvNuobVUAabcvjKhhQIVctiZCjBzNXdG0gHzKxJe1D3g4Rey-2FI-2BZiv-2F1ywTEpe5ljzYwCFRWAWoy5ImLJg91wLXnhWn0VrNAhwlKQh4yuNHCTcmPtBHdy9IHGDY9nQ-3D-3D) |
| Year ago | ~$3.70/gal | [Power Lunch, Sept 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgYYJi6jDxv-2BFxWTfmnATvyLdF5Izw-2BgfgVwWww7BjViXCY-2F6S5hkHS8yiRE-2FkEy1uOGWxuOXIHCD0D2buVZz90o6uc0xYL-2Ft68CgB4G0J25w-3D-3DxBjK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwVWxeYcuaDv8ud0yg-2BoC67YLTMR3m1WxCaxCEno5FrJTCVlQPGAwApk2P4jtNze-2F-2FW48AG7-2BonFanoq-2Fcwld7JwMqdu-2Fbn-2B8e6Op15ijJ7W1xCutuOcEj4FdIS5jEtgqsg-3D-3D) |
| Rise since March | +$2.63/gal (to $6.599 on Sept 21) | [FTR State of Freight, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2FnZ-2BBXL-2FsT6JzN25rkXwc5jcbJM-2FLQa3HZ8UpFCymFdEqs8Fb-2BtGKH-2BeUqb-2BfWlUewtOPzBCTngERtJOLA4fR2bd4yAPjAuL-2ByJ6OtN7aJQ-3D-3DIElM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwRd6Hxd-2FxEvYl5R6OIw8c3bm4cUgPEWUpp0BpvLUYc3lLc8j2568KC0TbZrU8X1PHy9zyJWBz-2BzHeWnYhNTEesPzCDaH2a6-2FAOaYbiB-2B1K1TLSSIV-2FfNp8g9iI7jGz8nng-3D-3D) |
| Farm-delivered diesel, YoY | about +80% | [AG Bull, Sept 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlmpG26npxT05bGW6YtTebECR-2F9-2FXqnhjWb1B5iBrj7Yrfzz75abXX0zjvKiiam9cu-2BOWnUBBHnfL0-2B-2FNJZy5EzXHzt7UWvVLxZ9mYJf8ObQ-3D-3DAFta_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwVun8DeM1R-2BrYKi6yhWRCHHF2tEmOkdbhZr0SzW36b-2F8k8oM6ijNO2TuysGrwAecl0UGUjcJqKknu-2FyXT-2BOuTry0ntOIYrLyd-2B67bH7ecSU56EmgPp6QPpQ-2FDLTlOKWMSQ-3D-3D) |
| US diesel inventories | 13% below average | [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLdkAKWNfqkHHc2H-2FYeny7w-2Bqac2H2hzG91CiK4Q-2BVr-2BiTUBI5nWr9q2f9XKoOrDm8wlmrkWqPgAZCQUw93h-2FY6IMCKBiE1F4Jb467RcJJnQ-3D-3DfADi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwWzyGGSEqm5kinp7dxjYTeN6bxqdt9mHoXxT1h7T-2BEfHvKl7besvgXTIdo-2FOMQYiIERBmo6wZReEPPuSW7VSF7YqogdvrXUpeQleGnaOoPpaQTx3IjK9-2FhtJTcoqs9MGAQ-3D-3D) |
| US diesel "crack" (refining margin) | near $100/barrel, "unprecedented" | [Columbia Energy Exchange, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOizGLDD0q-2BsBEz4NKZvU77FXwOb-2FELIdPEpo4Z3orJgsu12mCdnoh9vbn6ltyQb0AeKk3KqQJ9QNr-2BsjOKV63AtvlI2qK1Js-2FzhYpVz4JxmcQ-3D-3DFX5h_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwTBDqCCldvX9NfNS6GCVgC-2FJz08-2BNA-2BX3NDj5VTfCGaulwoRjMiEK9Wfut4kyLDA37-2FqZIxAsoiLwgIvb-2B2RkbQTKrgeCvuP6hY-2BM5zMERomZ3ZbVI3kDoF0BtCXaEg1eg-3D-3D) |
| US refinery utilization | about 98% of capacity | [Grain Markets and Other Stuff, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJMv8OgCn4wEZg19dad6ddnWe7nEFNtgUtDKXWzBX5dGEDiGEboIosCBJ0q5U9vOTIg0L7LueD3oohGueZ76BNXzVB8mE93lFSBT-2BTrtn0Ug-3D-3DuvNN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwcRkU9WR3c57QiEUOJ-2F94ApTRoLTjn9IIfH5vNj1Y1LGq2sHc8wCz-2FBTuuenAyQ3GOokHtxC8gcC-2BtaZCsA6XIkjfJt7MfuhvYVqYQQ6HBM2zB2buvOnxMQJesPmCwO94A-3D-3D) |

Power Lunch added useful perspective: adjusted for inflation, 2008's peak was about $7.50 a gallon, so today's record is only a record in nominal terms. The farm-level pain is real all the same. Naomi Bloom of Total Farm Marketing told Marketplace: "When you have over $6 diesel, the farmers are still not making money because they're getting ready to harvest. And, you know, some of those combines take 300 to 400 gallons of diesel." ([Marketplace, Sept 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhBok4Crlj2GRq8r2L9MgMJs9VAs4QNwiHCRTamqi6-2BEW9ifLN7Q6SmKbwnxgOjdPbwwzA1W-2FpJEhLSENFLbr8rRbyGhKspdr05Tn-2B9aPfplw-3D-3DT1sx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwSMvjXyzbU1xqRs2bHAGPyB9Outbc9zXq2AFgtzwH9JOS82I5hDaOcqiee26Ncf32kqeUSCLeT4ugQHvd5WE44-2Fw8W2bR7rilWelTdCiU2TIzKrspwZuWzPoE74g76rZHg-3D-3D)). Marketplace's separate diesel episode featured a Montana farmer facing an $11,740 bill just to fill his tanks ([Marketplace, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOihO7CT0nx-2BG38h6gbiETV-2B-2Bc9eSS1wL5HyVNyxmU3WqMQfUj7mZAdb-2B3FPNXJk4HjQQxnj6UNBrApP5vilJdLIohRxouq8iRUfeCAEL78EZg-3D-3DpDFJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwUgdOtWu1wSpIFd8xSoX81TpIKaD-2FcwX0M0hblx94xVxgoSte8mNRXxiWdWoZawjoIIUSxsUJMSOpxPAb1hMFSQ0GnSP9tOLDVvWYKrtHxMlCnL6n4CGygVIWlGLGJQixA-3D-3D)).

**Why diesel, not crude oil, is the crisis.** Brent crude is about $105 a barrel, below its April peak of $126. Daniel Sternoff of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy said the market is "far, far tighter than the spot price suggests." Retail diesel is "up 85% from pre-war levels," and booking a crude tanker from the Middle East to Asia costs "20 times more" than before the war ([Columbia Energy Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOizGLDD0q-2BsBEz4NKZvU77FXwOb-2FELIdPEpo4Z3orJgsu12mCdnoh9vbn6ltyQb0AeKk3KqQJ9QNr-2BsjOKV63AtvlI2qK1Js-2FzhYpVz4JxmcQ-3D-3DBTo-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwTvBhanikfeljzTqqS3BP5U1nOV-2FAMIEdXeClm6US9l5PnfUglLnpiRCCGsZDeV65an877OVx-2BePlH26brSzWQM7l5FhX2zNxo4fEFEyfUng8wDBouL0fiyjwtXQJT7b6g-3D-3D)). POLITICO's reporter laid out the causes. Fuel can't get out of the Strait of Hormuz. Ukraine is striking Russian refineries. Russia has restricted its own diesel exports. US refineries have been "running flat out for months" but can only make up so much ([POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjLdkAKWNfqkHHc2H-2FYeny7w-2Bqac2H2hzG91CiK4Q-2BVr-2BiTUBI5nWr9q2f9XKoOrDm8wlmrkWqPgAZCQUw93h-2FY6IMCKBiE1F4Jb467RcJJnQ-3D-3DpeFF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwZX0CZlMM-2FL1H6rc5JySHZYuH4C0xYcUhAXFqaIRitEVm11BBNS-2Fizqn7jB5g0i2r67EWC-2BC9GagbIky-2BJuNh51IwbS3Z27YK44qQj20QoNxXCe3IExkAM1KRXgyVPuqZg-3D-3D)).

**The export-ban fight.** This became the big political story of the week, and it moved day to day:

- **Sept 22:** Grain Markets and Other Stuff reported that Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins promised relief for farmers while the White House ruled out export restrictions ([Grain Markets, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjdm80pquuljb2MNqm-2BHM6yIX2NgCaVXVl5wEU1ODYUTZGRuqvBIH26BDR8kqs31ROAybMbAPrOB6drrlio8a6ixgeReQ7A49DutFhNLNTiOQ-3D-3D6VoP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwazbv9JJmWgkCuFUQmMhAMny2LfI6nkINZVmMfI1J-2B0S5tfv1C517ub0D0hkVVgvkLWxIx4SgPIT-2BwqYb88Jr8JSqK6i67BA1UpU5Q0qU4X8GmmGDw2csjOsxDxIvB6k9Q-3D-3D)).
- **Sept 23:** "Yesterday, President Trump said he supports banning U.S. diesel exports" ([Grain Markets, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJMv8OgCn4wEZg19dad6ddnWe7nEFNtgUtDKXWzBX5dGEDiGEboIosCBJ0q5U9vOTIg0L7LueD3oohGueZ76BNXzVB8mE93lFSBT-2BTrtn0Ug-3D-3DPB9d_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwccg8L2MvKtzPwEkEjlbzrWaxaU7SdKYQBjeUItM-2BCrEU5cHOsDdrLNcQsiJ8bf0HFPOt-2Fkl8eU-2FtLwxBEjv6lFmPKSOAz7Wdy2qFxDLrQ8TO-2FZwYD51OuiMNLxUY-2BNo5g-3D-3D)). POLITICO framed it as "Big Ag" and farm-state Republicans against the oil industry, 40 days before the midterms.
- **Sept 25:** The Dividend Cafe said the administration had since walked away from pursuing the ban seriously ([The Dividend Cafe, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjr3GbFk8PoAHNYU-2FDap1Z1U3pTUyRNVoNlgVIIG3J9Vk99zs-2FukIMe2ha0MkHfY4isDeu9OZGCvuHDbebLx58HCQZx4W27VRcPThjO0cgxhQ-3D-3DWE4P_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwUh6FBxBkY7XtmtULtFukOF6MyyJt8odut8aUA2mKjGHYZiYPpbmY2P93hW5sYV3kVcOuEnAYJthRTei5afwOiJyHjC-2BK2aG1P3pNgAOcRMrUof5iEe0KOFvL7r6qZFfOA-3D-3D)). Treat the status as unresolved.

**Would a ban work?** The podcasts were nearly unanimous: yes, briefly, and then it backfires.

- **The storage wall.** US refiners make 5.3 million barrels a day of diesel and similar fuels, against domestic demand of 3.6 million. The 1.7 million-barrel surplus gets exported. Ban exports, and Gulf Coast storage "would fill to capacity within weeks." Then refiners have to cut runs, and because gasoline and diesel are made together from the same barrel, "you're going to run into a gasoline shortage" ([Grain Markets, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJMv8OgCn4wEZg19dad6ddnWe7nEFNtgUtDKXWzBX5dGEDiGEboIosCBJ0q5U9vOTIg0L7LueD3oohGueZ76BNXzVB8mE93lFSBT-2BTrtn0Ug-3D-3DhMBS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwYbM2xTGStsrExaX-2FkezUj84lQ1eno3PSq-2BTGTOf5tH8p6j5NDOtnTctRNjC4xW-2F4ANKjo4wprEkH2qFOy6IbE-2FxVCQkQD-2BmYEEMstcMqTt2Korx72UNA-2BO71mZOvg1PPg-3D-3D)).
- **The short-term payoff is real.** Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler, estimated a ban could take retail diesel "down by probably a dollar or two from $6.50 to maybe $4.50." But it forces about 1.5 million barrels a day to find domestic buyers and storage, after which refiners cut runs and the US needs to import more gasoline. He also noted, with some irony, that for maximum political effect the best time to act is "six to four weeks out" from an election ([Columbia Energy Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOizGLDD0q-2BsBEz4NKZvU77FXwOb-2FELIdPEpo4Z3orJgsu12mCdnoh9vbn6ltyQb0AeKk3KqQJ9QNr-2BsjOKV63AtvlI2qK1Js-2FzhYpVz4JxmcQ-3D-3Dbclg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwWAVExvuJ-2FSXHbkRkTn2gQzHfYRU3jj6EqwIsZ-2B1y35U-2BZ9SOoofRLXohwGKB9EzDwBAw8ei7z4Axg7TuxAX-2BeDZTQLBEdo97m61jxF8GmF7vUlq9NUzUaEHnIlknES9wA-3D-3D)).
- **The world pays.** Doomberg, the pseudonymous energy writer, told The HC Commodities Podcast that before the war the US exported about 1.3 million barrels a day of diesel, and pushed that as high as 1.9 million in August to cover for Russia. A ban would make the US price "collapse temporarily, but the price of diesel worldwide goes full tilt... no price will clear the market." Doomberg called it one of "four horsemen" of a possible "dieselpocalypse." The other three: new US sanctions pushing India, which supplied 60% of the diesel crossing the Red Sea to Europe in August, to pull out of the market; refineries running at 98% to 108% of capacity without maintenance ("stuff's going to blow up"); and further escalation in the Middle East ([The HC Commodities Podcast, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhV8Mh-2Fy6cly1lRNYevDbK5Zsh-2BCXzflSrZSFT0wUA7sgu4mHfkTXAkdBoty82fsZZs-2Be-2FZ993V9ziTwA3esvpKKp6mIjB32rsSxU-2FFVWIwsA-3D-3D8BNL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwfXvGxQGfwtU-2FcZuXd8o5d-2BSv4ofR2SASFVsW6D-2Fb5KLy2FZ9wBZsuq0hmjVS4p-2FDC-2B1yOaYukDON5T376FLHW-2BHG6Y9uxDcy8kwhRHVfuKMvwzr0-2FmhE0Ig1yqTS38jkQ-3D-3D)). Saxo put Europe's exposure at about 500,000 barrels a day of US diesel, roughly 10% of daily demand ([Saxo Market Call, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi8ZhaYfpO1kiNG2bOCJPYSioFftBe0Ah06vvKFfeZRaHLbrGqNhm6SZSsjo73M0McM4noRm7I2FrKKXKLbP5JfyI35lCTcC3axVI-2FQLDjhaw-3D-3DL6kC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwZaP5415Q6NyUCeeezr7S8VvNfH-2BC7oypnzqYduZZDyf2cjoVL1HOLpWCnJVsRpPaVEeVkqDXt-2FqScJTASlQjcuRd30tJvVi13KPtUsbPy5487QXtOqO9peJVWvG0BKR5g-3D-3D)).
- **The industry view.** Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (the oil industry's main lobby group), said restricting exports "would only compound the problem." The Grain Markets host added, fairly: "he's talking his book, but I think he's right" ([Grain Markets, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJMv8OgCn4wEZg19dad6ddnWe7nEFNtgUtDKXWzBX5dGEDiGEboIosCBJ0q5U9vOTIg0L7LueD3oohGueZ76BNXzVB8mE93lFSBT-2BTrtn0Ug-3D-3DXdyP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwenT-2BcbZexlZiO1R023DTviafMJjUXYFAjxlw6IdnScQQk-2FYNHsf-2FUDOBA0pzLkw9o-2FuWgOzM68MGI2IZlV-2F3Acc9o-2BpjYNH3rouLH5CGCgpQSjpmvv1vXK-2B5LEgCk5RpQ-3D-3D)).

**Fertilizer: the sulfur shock nobody is talking about.** Josh Linville of StoneX gave the best fertilizer briefing of the week. On sulfur: "half the world's tradable sulfur supply sails through the Strait of Hormuz. So guess what? Yeah. It's gone." Russia has blocked its own sulfur exports, removing "another 17%." Put together, "about two-thirds of the world's supply is just missing." Sulfur goes into ammonium sulfate and other sulfur-based fertilizers. Demand keeps rising because cleaner air means crops no longer get sulfur from acid rain, and higher yields pull more sulfur out of the soil ([RealAg on the Weekend](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjNtzz9kWG8pPFER1Y23TUL11IjhkinTOmHli1-2BrTVHyYz287gYWX13kk2c8bjKjTRu8TAwKFPaZ8c1zMI59cE0AM4doobRnqq3bBSe8ONptw-3D-3DlJlo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwY68KNegpzPqAJTUUyd4E4iX-2B8pmQFLaAn-2FeKx7BrLvT6ybj3jIfYpyQfQiQXvWt1cr73DB4HpfONYTSuE-2FSEubnynUYUkRrGlOMA0-2FXq2-2BZ3tIdV-2B9HbDJzywU5LqqjGQ-3D-3D)).

**Nitrogen: sold out by lunchtime.** Anhydrous ammonia and UAN (a liquid nitrogen fertilizer) summer-fill programs were "released at 8 a.m. They were pulled by lunchtime." A fill program is an early-order discount that suppliers offer ahead of the season. "These manufacturers are extremely well sold." Linville expects 2027 to be worse. With new-crop corn trading at $5.30 to $5.45 a bushel against a 52-week low of $4.25, forecasters are raising 2027 corn acreage from 90 to 92 million acres to "96, 98," and "a few people throwing out the crazy number, 100 million acres." Corn needs more nitrogen than any other major crop, so more corn acres means more nitrogen demand. (Same episode.)

**Potash: the Belarus gambit.** President Trump said the US was working on a "massive deal" to buy potash from Belarus at a "substantially lower price" than it pays Canada. The Arkansas AgCast noted that no price, volume or timeline had been released ([Arkansas AgCast, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi1kapR97ppo76F5-2FEZelruTTYEOTKTSjDy4J0-2F0t2m3fTrKZDgAabk-2FMsNFlHPElEJcQ6tmnokZdMMZpub7bLtufAUB6ByRWcF2ClvJDN6Gg-3D-3D219l_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwYqJvxv-2BevwfOOdkAgdoqyvB-2FJmfdgPlqdQ-2FOCMK6HksWl-2BFzDY-2BV-2FCrSn9KnJR6paHtIjxI2gYGRlu-2BCwTkQ75Tk9RFn9gS3JIhuUMH2bUJMrq20WFLZy2XjJ4dzaoqDw-3D-3D)). Linville was blunt: "it rings hollow." At its peak in 2017 to 2018, Belarus shipped "a whopping 750,000 tons" to the US. It is landlocked, its routes through Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine are closed, and "their only way of moving product is through Russia." Meanwhile, "the U.S. buys about 10 million tons of potash out of Canada," roughly 90% of US supply. His read: it is a negotiating tactic ahead of the September 29 US-Canada deadline. Belarus reportedly called the idea a non-starter ([RealAg on the Weekend](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjNtzz9kWG8pPFER1Y23TUL11IjhkinTOmHli1-2BrTVHyYz287gYWX13kk2c8bjKjTRu8TAwKFPaZ8c1zMI59cE0AM4doobRnqq3bBSe8ONptw-3D-3DTDcx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwRYRZebvQedzG69GmkFT1v3YrwDxJGjcSUTdpbbwxXVqySZCGnwmTMCvzoE-2BfKxHKl0Zg4jBbpjEe90wqwTokMQx1AUom0lO-2FICAwCwvT6IMTG3oF7NSUJdmRDgJYaUdAA-3D-3D)).

**What farmers are paying now** (USDA figures cited on [Arkansas AgCast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi1kapR97ppo76F5-2FEZelruTTYEOTKTSjDy4J0-2F0t2m3fTrKZDgAabk-2FMsNFlHPElEJcQ6tmnokZdMMZpub7bLtufAUB6ByRWcF2ClvJDN6Gg-3D-3D0j1i_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwewKyLlXU9g5uUlma0ASpC82b-2B210Fu9AW1-2BqkUOVAJs-2BHmywFurhyDyBb2fYh2bZkzqeRiHHBjzlTE66uOmwrCWo5XapaWgNSH273LDNWeqF2cMxVAbjo0w5ULvyDoXWA-3D-3D)):

| Product | Earlier | Now |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Liquid nitrogen | ~$727/ton | ~$822/ton |
| MAP (monoammonium phosphate) | ~$1,167/ton | >$1,235/ton |
| Red potash | n/a | ~$690/ton (up YoY) |
| White potash | n/a | >$744/ton (up YoY) |

On the same episode, Cal Poly agribusiness professor Ricky Volpe said diesel costs will gradually push food prices up "somewhat higher than normal" through year-end. He does not expect a return to pandemic-style food inflation.

---

## The debate

**1. Is copper's price real, or a tariff mirage?**

- *Bull case:* Structural shortage. It now takes "15 years" to go from discovery to production (Darrell Fletcher, [The KE Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTG-2F-2FhLG4CXT1hUrE-2FtC2EY8L9ic1X9FouPFHya0DPx76MhxUZtlv2mSZltUAsItJbLCbtXcacC5VOxcts9v14StP-2FgRu2puStAkLKD3mj-2BQ-3D-3Dp3GL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwX89jyRFPPiVH-2FB3IlWIT6qE5Lj0gqkqI34iQVTF-2FR4idRfmGzvPm7bc6l8pjd-2B6Fnn6LPoE3Qn9Afies45mItbuZRbGNVv2mcRy2KWpulEBn6y2e0y5-2BEMEv-2FbZrAnBxw-3D-3D)). Record prices haven't lifted output (Ian Harris, [ITM Trading](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiqA5yFrVZjOfT4qpumG2DfvCs3dP-2Fz4rs4EWpbQC71mgu6DOUuI2Ns1f9FMTy8c9KuvLO73F3HutHHxGE3kf4nMo0kI2p6xLEYwlRACOHDFg-3D-3DPqCh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwXtZHISBLWg2TsYU1Tj5UNrTHiw7p7uPbSrWPCpzUGbm02DIprqVbRKOK3a-2BszuAddsDQkbTUf3eX6m8yGDlvsGO8Fpo-2FJdGfyd-2BxWmnd1jJHZNZybx45Ha2mCGgNJUicQ-3D-3D)). Jérémie Boyer of Aurelion told Monetary Matters his price target is $7 a pound, and "I could have put eight, but it's for a Christmas target." He noted that even AI hardware companies now treat copper as a cost risk. An investor relations contact at the photonics company Lumentum told him "copper has a lot more room to go to the upside" ([Monetary Matters, Sept 20](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjUeveanRcXRcNJbpnc2Lu4KExf3tVy97YSRpuTY7qLtHvv6qLEW8LhTx32tzkB0FJWKdC-2BWzMjfuPuqYARhbfC-2FJMXUdCWn-2B2SyRP58eIAAQ-3D-3D5Ikk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwTdf03Xw80R2nGbam75XkWiMlL-2B7jejGKhrBSmwloM-2FlOMWq2G4aSdXndz4SJzsbz14q75jOZqY-2FTJ6m8VrTWbAwypmRJbpBa-2BsYJwvDSqDhQOAu1DonFLqgnqmN3R7iag-3D-3D)).
- *Bear case:* Grant Sporre's tariff-unwind argument above. On Money of Mine, the former power trader Fred Seguy said, "When I looked at the supply element of copper, I realised I don't think it's particularly bullish, at least it's not clear cut." He is staying out because copper is "largely driven by narrative and I'm trying to not get in the way of narrative" ([Money of Mine, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgyzPBoysrQCBk-2ByM-2BfIXVuuLDnCM9SzuADJXNBE2XfKvd9Vt4czqSlUUn8SJYEajFtACXY9gLx34rDkC3sXnSmpSe1A0TL-2B2GGfElmpTSV5w-3D-3DjzMR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwaXv1d8pHzoMQD56crLN04A0fqriVPMxOD3L16IkeY5C2pmvE-2F57jMkXf-2FqDTeMfTdOTfZpovFjmGEgAzNGe3sT6tXrvjc6-2FKd2-2B1nSxIorT6ahDLwWUD25du95WRZEczA-3D-3D)). On Rock Stock Channel, Matt Fearnley asked the awkward question: if there really is a 10 million-ton shortage coming, fine, build big inventories. "But if there isn't going to be a 10 million ton deficit, do we still need to be building up millions of tons of inventories on exchange?" ([Rock Stock Channel](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3DiHVs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwaW2rz1QNYq0v-2B4vCGl2kpqTgZ8nRZNnWeSTg2TVutT-2FBQkae3Yu433miAh0tcEKyvHGwn-2FMpzdkXHw0pZjbnlw4sKS6gL0eFwzSpAF-2B3-2Fdh47rhvSj6P44Ig1pH8kYmTg-3D-3D)). Boyer himself named the main risk: "everyone is focusing on memory and GPU... They don't speak about data centers as much as before."
- *Our read:* Both can be true. The long-run shortage story is intact, but the near-term price includes a tariff premium that disappears the moment Washington decides. That makes a tariff announcement a two-sided risk to copper prices.

**2. Was the short truce extension a US win or a US setback?** Lindsay Newman (Chatham House) says two months preserves US leverage past the midterms. The Bloomberg Surveillance guest says it shows the US failed to lock in rare-earth access. Both agree nothing on rare earths is settled. A new deadline of January 10 lands squarely in the holiday lull.

**3. Diesel export ban: sensible emergency measure or own goal?** Farm-state Republicans (Senators Grassley and Thune, Representative Burchett) are for it. The oil industry, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and almost every energy analyst on the podcasts are against. Only Jay Young on The Jay Young Show made a full-throated case in favor ([The Jay Young Show, Sept 23](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjClX6UIzEY3Af5Vr7gBqo5IFZmyFYmcsPk1Et5lD0o-2F2PU7afsSSA65sAOj03v-2FRiC4dzXtUb8qq7K3JoAz5ks3DUzyZlf1IE3jNheoMSCMQ-3D-3DrVqH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwWey-2FYBuMu8xWrk5bDxLS4AMc8lYJDkjhOBcMNII0COs6KQyWCP0XgFWadUi3By8zYh-2BtWZA7rp7p7lNyrsxsaXb0LpXsEZ-2FOh6DRE4XewaNgVvaP17ZwlyIcVaiiMcZFA-3D-3D)). Jan Stuart's middle view: it would work for a while and do lasting damage.

---

## The names in play

| Company | Why it came up | Podcast |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)** | Grasberg still below capacity after a fatal mudslide; favored large-cap copper producer | [Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2CeT92sxRib3qRBLCisrO-2B-2BE-2BCpHngB6Pxa3qV3v9-2BQCaStmzMsuLkcZk0l9Ee9QQ7pC3xpM6suaUj34CTlL5H6TNewme0NAv2s6dzbG2AQ-3D-3D8t-6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwd7UFmsWdGBX5nwh8MNkPfcZGlhfkVqft6nrhA96rp6RKQ4zNwzcZ7N7c-2FxWwR6WuEE23FSUHc5iGFOUPnyVfaYtLu54MtzY3GQXf0F82lsf27C831S8nNjA6G41DRrNjw-3D-3D), [Other People's Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBE7YgbrZzuoWlbXpphJdgTGjhuPmId9LG8-2Fc-2B-2BaBlOlkKp-2BViWlhdFOjBLYyR4Nb4njgEEzKhzhWQBzVyDplHRHm34-2FxyXhlNd7mzwcO64A-3D-3DxI5u_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwS-2BWMrwUAuRfjv3iBKNTwPm8yIg2VlQSL8Vq43E4mz0qBkL7elUBJALUlBidNm4bbPor0ymRuAkTt5JH13IC5ji5zzpl9rrZmiW9fOEdwoWQVjB7L-2BpXvZgxduNJLpJhjg-3D-3D) |
| **Southern Copper (SCCO)** | Mark Skousen's pick for the copper bull market; stock up 6% to 8% on the recording day | [Wealthion, Sept 21](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhvZcmTfnXpBNq7dFCqDNm44nl81EdOx06DCPk1wNM922oJefv-2FRggqXYCQRkiLm5wPWDYH0-2Fv8dPl9Uqutqwieypo-2FNnLiKwbFUVDI8VHQ-2Bw-3D-3DYRK8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwfqyyl2NCwSzWXod903sD1Lf0jpSl6Pst2OgP5MiQnsln-2Bpkc0LaovhNJr83ERF3M1v-2BcbzZ5zS3SDZwokIaJty9WEZIGhrXaTOyoItF7-2FW7-2FLuvT9xifXKJefbok-2B8KAA-3D-3D) |
| **Grupo Mexico** | Hayden smelter is the most likely US smelting restart (up to 400kt, including scrap) | [The Northern Miner](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3DumXH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwVeACoBVVEYS4hHY2Th3iS8iB-2Bkd1UOYN3Y2JBD5WSaSS2yXBZG8QELDpn2onCSlFFcghXRQWcdeYdaO14G4qduTLTTbtDOrPSr2jtpvbcRhD5jy7THtHtkPXJgu8RD1Pw-3D-3D) |
| **Century Aluminum / EGA** | Inola joint venture, a real US aluminum investment | [The Northern Miner](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3Dwiei_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwR2zwm8dK25EwxwYkDslYLr6JQNfjRk1chwXZvTiWWVL7es-2BQEcl2eLADlGtgljwppaC9JELMcmhB2qOTPHCtbgWQQasLbDnYc1T1leXEqD6WXm0eY7vkhZ-2FBagfZs6TGw-3D-3D) |
| **Korea Zinc** | Project Crucible (US zinc/polymetallic) | [The Northern Miner](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3DCoXL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwXco-2BuP3FjSxWH4Ixn4Ckd1BfBsV0Fk8kRPcwnUs2K-2BsFTAxYl1E-2FRouNFwdq4nD1-2BR0o226tzjxC8E0V9iSJy6ccBG-2FbGP1FAECSgKRw9B9PVs9WgHhp3PxmXX6AubTAg-3D-3D) |
| **Glencore, Mercuria** | About $500M each into VaultCo; cobalt rumored as a focus | [Rock Stock Channel](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3Del_Y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwVf8-2FTtF0luaRE8R656Jrwkt1fUDh8l3omacFgGWZjHIvyAQWCcMku2u-2Fa-2FKC7rHSO6HGguYeCLK41ygsMUu-2F8tiZOptMJWgHlAQecNBDJrsAaOVrsDu2rEZxffMvSJ0TQ-3D-3D) |
| **SQM** | $3bn Salar Futuro seen as sustaining spending; no volume growth forecast | [Rock Stock Channel](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3DWzsw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwSPG8zlBlBDMNK3xpDXXfIP5-2BXdHCeZ2zD4cVWf7Hc75or1LHjwtYvnf2eebgrU4rOBiUNz4uL8pAYdm4pD0XdP310Ufqih34XanL1-2FXBNUOHyFqkXmy0aL4rtPkidU-2B9Q-3D-3D) |
| **Sigma Lithium** | JPMorgan initiation: outperform, $14 target | [Rock Stock Channel](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3DytBr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwWp1SMmIbJPQMQMSkWNq5MsyROjYmQRiZt-2Ber3U0F8iYw6gW6XLpguswyh-2Fap-2FdQ9Dg1yefJ8ZHhHcmMyXhHCmdywf3pc34TKiGN0Ak7Yb0r-2FajMz5ANAgw33h-2FojFwh5w-3D-3D) |
| **First Phosphate** | Swiss $212.5M guarantee + Danish €170M commitment toward a ~$475M capex budget | [Rock Stock Channel](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh4D4k2khU8ZFJTCZkzmvlmDCipqiK5uEaxEwKTrvXDhhPiokfdywa8yGyunZi9-2BfK1El5vpHBP-2BO2bmByM9LSqgyAV6W-2BoMBqmaetjPr0TUQ-3D-3DgRfU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwWsBq-2BEmtadeQQeTxaVa0Erfr8zJHIpN1eU-2Fh9glcD1kpgh43DMQlFvrDWnCfnWb-2BdiK6NBntY38FStsL6q-2FchytBWQNgzZHtFJigJteDgnrUngKDxOJfAEYAI53AfEPYg-3D-3D) |
| **FPX Nickel** | Baptiste nickel project; CEO calls a 2027 nickel deficit | [Mining Stock Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh9RoLabVW3TEkGNv-2F1e0VunHUG38HXe0kLAmfdDgafJRGGM-2FspxLXf-2B40O4AHMnsLsyRAjiCl9jRxhW6oBtVcbDPgnspD8M7i3x1aQkGbRRg-3D-3D7wlf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwboR-2FWKzjqG-2FpROqZQMfQw-2BHakVGWakCTbvba7cyvysQJiRN-2F4-2B1ghozr1gBM7jJAH7YDaRxTUu7-2Bwzudgnc5j3fX6EVuNYMcowFxmLHWsrpP-2FM9-2F1Buk6ZbAimYoIpZNQ-3D-3D) |
| **Americas Gold & Silver / US Antimony** | Antimony turned from penalty into revenue | [Company Interviews](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiMjqmbs3B8UNrRa8g-2Fl1oU3ZiqwEaw4TQlSyaxMlBkgFq9zD8bXowdBQ66HE91jB8fh-2F8CU7yf-2B6iKI4tRVPHuNQN3lGrGPcSjxTyZKX18Hg-3D-3DovsJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwSAwtCBL8F-2FVUiZnEZpZ0eMB1ZMd7OSt5wBCBsx-2Fn-2FmbqyL18I6D44PNN-2BNrmS4va-2F71I4bjMlG-2FErkG8JB75pPuxUVfxXFuRUzeuk8DjjJ5UxNqpYoqrZXqi81my6Atig-3D-3D) |
| **Aluminium Bahrain (Alba)** | Back to ~80% of pre-war output | [The Northern Miner](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3Dz5v2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwfEFIf85GSPdELX0dqNsZlaqrQUnt9Ard5NEX-2BzVJLNSXWUeelv6bYE07aN6hjuyukR02CpihJlzb1RgELLcvwTTpjCKzqJB5fnDgyD3gfdcXHfGmfZhMqfU9qHbwEG-2Fxg-3D-3D) |
| **Copper juniors** | Highland Copper ($50M for Copperwood), Gunnison Copper (commercial production), Selkirk Copper (Minto restart), Ivan Bebek's Sombrero project in Peru | [Highland](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqpyDlQsLeRFviBGj2Sc0C4KR2dtoIk5Xji-2B-2FMl0yUIyx8Vz5icMXHEoPPsN7MUKE69IGY-2B-2FNYiisMVuK8YMuxPLLAfAeVMo2FIGi8akTGig-3D-3DJqr3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgweaGEaBho7-2FO-2FonNq9llQ62OAweuyA8UXXBEioNssW-2BoNJlKiJDCewyzU-2BZgcdtawTxnz3aGUwhF4k7p4KnI5Itmmx2tgE-2FZ6vrmRtIlrtGyDX0Gxfn-2Bb9fUqqshQRTCMA-3D-3D), [Gunnison](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjec-2Bzvhx5J5C-2FBxs3vGSMaDaCfVpy-2FXrALKjId98Mo2sdphvxy4vYCJ4LoPlJczQzww60fEnsivzuVgLYCgocNzaRsYLGj8L3EsftXbngXBA-3D-3D-H8i_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwc988Rrj7c-2BQ7aj1iE1aJ2JHtMkT6B9hhs7-2BdY6qo75vACwID5CqgQc469uRWBi89QW2gPtsk4yKqCie2-2BdWQ1WEYrFPgEP85DwB-2B-2FpOdmhCY-2FjbHW8TZsz8n-2FfdjohHyw-3D-3D), [Selkirk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjPD6bayl4UIMD9HhjozICPJGcuqjDvn2UdgtzVyr20nrgReVTFNh0-2BhkwiDpathdu6FjRmksKBalVn-2FVlWyRhOjxBbDOgpGHi5VKL5Yee6OA-3D-3Dw4eC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwZveCbGAbCYlV1S7yG0oDi2qFp7raym4QcuaD4qgu-2FbJGxgAdRzVXxPb6wwfQDqbEAiNYgVJmngTUf-2FLe1gOB7Fgyeh5pvLl4XW9aPdj4g2sfoHmPxIyaLq6VdGK5wXMGg-3D-3D), [Mining Stock Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgRygUMJaTAe6Oz4vZ0ukDMsOoftsG8-2BxEIEb3klqXjcp-2FRMHwTQ5OW4a8cUnE3MtOyK-2BKXZn9JQINKkj4NxIpUQrmR073fL-2FIE9RJC9ETN9g-3D-3DnRa8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwWUTHygoK1d5SBvyXIjDhH-2B8u80Sq6UUOYwEenH50eNCgBQYPGgrXZTTpPv6wMd2DVZBB9GTlBoXfoEqI6-2FmS1RrWMe356tlDmh5JuYPomQYsAKNeXMxB3HZVWz7BkQ9ig-3D-3D) |

*A caution:* company CEOs pitching their own projects (FPX, Americas Gold & Silver, the copper juniors, First Phosphate) are naturally bullish on their own metals. Their facts are useful. Their price forecasts deserve a discount. Bebek, for example, said $8 to $10 copper is needed to justify major new mines.

---

## Read-throughs

- **Copper to cable and power-equipment makers.** If AI hardware companies are flagging copper as a cost risk (Boyer, [Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjUeveanRcXRcNJbpnc2Lu4KExf3tVy97YSRpuTY7qLtHvv6qLEW8LhTx32tzkB0FJWKdC-2BWzMjfuPuqYARhbfC-2FJMXUdCWn-2B2SyRP58eIAAQ-3D-3DIbdp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwUSYf3apFDThIoD1CRB5dmJKodvN-2BGtakpgPv-2BOhHZMtWZEKSlOuHWgPfQrV0U0-2F9zBPHP4MPvAQY6OQ6gUtB0T-2BCdP-2FdlvqquwTbvx17Sy50vMzLTpUQLRhMuZnt3eqDg-3D-3D)), then wire, cable and electrical-equipment makers face the same margin squeeze unless they can pass it on.
- **Tariff decision to US versus global copper spreads.** Any White House announcement on refined copper affects the gap between COMEX and LME prices first. The spread is already down to about 1.6 cents a pound, the tightest since April, as US warehouses fill ([The Northern Miner](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSAM6qPYq2eHQ8zTjKl0iLjLLl021Am03x-2B1G8WytH76OhtH5IR-2Bl2S9rsKNu8-2BuEW1W1S5IKJhDl4F2BbmZVYy67-2BbHGbbMph01s1Pa3VAQ-3D-3DW4O2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwQuwgkCVUjaj8EhS-2BL6rvABcVOcfnU-2B1dJIzRT0xNwpg6z31uMLTJjWhxBaZ8FUdkIaAZ2zbIR8jWCwK-2B4unttay5WGOZAxqCrVT9hAnySKXQHR-2FV-2B5uQlNxCvPw0XZKpQ-3D-3D)).
- **Diesel to food prices and truckers.** Remarkable Retail cited a 0.88 correlation between diesel costs and food inflation ([Remarkable Retail, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhSqD6bcMBIJyseSvrebK5GpRJuaFaezGHgv0-2BKiOAt4urvPJKyjiWTTr2nZ7JWUFbnZQAGMJvaXM0c2GNslDBC-2BAjwH4NlsCbGQtoUJH-2FJcw-3D-3DvtH0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwSq73KnlSHooHCmzCko7RmB5qwxvrFY2wpSOZS2NQTeP8xZPbM9MpBZdWNgrDdjQomdTO9K8aLKcB4TYKU2ofGSLhWut39Y3GRsAyxzydWYtjlOFMeydLKuABvdpKRfBXg-3D-3D)). Retailers have mostly absorbed the costs so far but may hit a "breaking point."
- **Diesel ban to Europe.** Wood Mackenzie's Alan Gelder warned that a US ban would push UK diesel above the predicted £2.30 a litre ([Wake Up to Money, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjnXwwftrnkEf1GIVMBKsOv31MydTKwtyKXviFy75gBHo0JZ6vOJimYpbnnrZhVBDkMVYoX03mCVzr0k-2BUZOEzYTeKdlK1kxt-2FYbzTM5d8-2FNA-3D-3DWu8A_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwUXBbLvxUVwsL9vTu3d42M-2BldIBLSAs9V3oh6VzW17zJDThhhuVlqvPOF7LqNR9Z-2BpmbAixGTs01MLbcpmcShimftsLz9EOxxRmfk-2BYbo0hgD969urZKTZZ5SReOFROLOQ-3D-3D)).
- **Sulfur to copper and fertilizer at the same time.** The same missing sulfur feeds both sulfuric acid for SX-EW copper mines and sulfur-based fertilizers. Sporre sees the copper side easing. Linville sees the fertilizer side tightening. Worth watching which of them is right.
- **2027 corn acreage to nitrogen producers.** If 2027 corn plantings really move toward 96 to 100 million acres, North American nitrogen producers enter next year already "extremely well sold." (No CF Industries, Nutrien or Mosaic podcast appeared this week to test this against company commentary.)
- **El Niño to feed costs.** On Commodities Focus, analysts said El Niño is pushing fishmeal to record prices as Peru's anchovy catch falls, while threatening Brazil's soybean crop, a double hit to animal-feed costs ([Commodities Focus, Sept 22](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgg2VcfSXWQxNkIV31LS5X9aCcmn024cTpM-2ByEp4lXOeeGyKK-2FZOdwVKT3HDZyJIAEpYgBgNEBWebr8xCXVHl2JWQAatXPstYUVYeG4YZ0NVQ-3D-3DkYlK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUMv-2Bvl9x1Zp3b8looJCGfhdW-2BCv5YhLhjEIZRASzvgwVlOLZ5MyCcip-2BkY0gY-2F9UzQFHXwFoal7pbI71t6ImZSukBe0-2FxK1fb-2F8iZetX6mswciypvPH8UNNBoGm8AjSKAifxG-2FjVSFUGf5AKklw5ysC-2BgCNl9WZ3TjxE0gLNqU2Q-3D-3D)).

---

## What changed since last week

| Theme | Last week (Sept 20 issue) | This week |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **US-China truce / rare earths** | Busan truce "nearly up in November" | **Extended two months to Jan 10.** US wanted 3 to 6 months; rare-earth access still unresolved |
| **Diesel** | Record ~$6.40/gal; Thune "open" to an export ban | **~$6.52 to $6.60 record.** Trump backed a ban on Sept 22-23, then signals of a walk-back by Sept 25; analysts nearly unanimous it would backfire |
| **Copper** | ~$14,000/t LME, "narrative driven" | **$14,650 to $14,710 LME, ~$14,940 COMEX.** US warehouse stocks posted their first weekly decline since April; New Orleans storage full; tariff-unwind risk now clearly spelled out |
| **Lithium** | Joe Lowry questioned how China's inventory is measured | **30 straight weeks of falling inventories** across every data series; financing window open again |
| **Critical-minerals finance** | VaultCo $12bn outlined | **Glencore and Mercuria ~$500M each** confirmed; $7bn Ex-Im package for Argentina |
| **Fertilizer** | Diesel-driven; urea sensitive to gas prices | **Sulfur shock (two-thirds of traded supply missing), nitrogen sold out, Belarus potash plan** |
| **Steel/aluminum** | Section 232 tariffs at 50% | **US-Canada escalation:** 100% effective levy on some Canadian aluminum; Canada fast-tracks mine approvals |

**Still missing from the podcasts:** MP Materials, Lynas and USA Rare Earth (three weeks running with no company-level rare-earth episode); CF Industries, Nutrien and Mosaic; Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs and Alcoa; Albemarle; the DRC cobalt export quota.

**On the calendar:** the September 29 US-Canada trade deadline (Linville's top watch item); China's National Day holiday in early October, when Chinese metals news tends to go quiet for a week; Chinese copper refinery maintenance in October and November; the US midterms on November 3; the new truce deadline on January 10.

---

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