# A 12 Trillion Dollar Data Center Bill and Whether It Pays for Itself - The AI Capex Tracker - Week of September 28, 2026

> A synthesis of what podcasts said about AI capital spending for the weekend of September 25-27, 2026, weighing Jim Chanos and Goldman's $10 to $12 trillion five-year data-center bill against Jensen Huang's claim that a one-gigawatt AI factory pays for itself, plus Ed Zitron's warehoused-chips estimate, Oracle's Project Jupiter financing strain, a 57 gigawatt power shortfall, and Micron's September 30 print.

## The AI Capex Tracker

### Week of September 28, 2026: A 12 Trillion Dollar Data Center Bill and Whether It Pays for Itself

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*(Covers podcasts published Friday, September 25 through Sunday, September 27. Last week ended with a flagship Stargate campus in legal limbo. This weekend the conversation zoomed out to the whole bill. Jim Chanos passed along a Goldman Sachs estimate that data-center spending will run "$10 to $12 trillion" over the next five years. That's "about 6% of GDP," and in his words "1x to 2x the U.S. personal savings rate." Jensen Huang, on Ezra Klein's show, gave the other side in one line: "$50 billion to build a one gigawatt data center… and you can rent it for 40 to $50 billion per year." In between: a lender call on Oracle's troubled Project Jupiter, a detailed claim that half of all AI chips sold are sitting unplugged, a Morgan Stanley power team hearing no slowdown at all, and a memory trade heading into Micron's Wednesday print with its first sign of slowing price increases. Thirty podcasts surfaced this cycle, about a dozen of them substantive.)*

## TL;DR

- **The five-year price tag just got a number, and the bears are using it.** Jim Chanos says Goldman raised its data-center estimate "by 50 gigawatts, which is $2.5 to $3 trillion" in one go, bringing five-year spending to "$10 to $12 trillion." His own work shows the hyperscalers' returns on new investment "peaked in 2024" and, on the current trend, fall "below their weighted average cost of capital sometime in mid-27, which I don't think the market is prepared for" ([RiskReversal Pod, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3De2yY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gqoj6c-2FB4xWhClml8l2OAYmMdhSgWN1OZGzozRLXjIaWt5UVNRrVF3LG-2FTJD3IFn9wyEUwD9vxJkqO6tKOXHUbhwT1jzcrUaOQAiZc1LDb9SnnzIbcVFNB7zbIRJhFGjQQ-3D-3D)). The same day, CNBC reported Goldman put global capex at "1.2 [trillion] for '27" while going "underweight hyperscaler issuance because there's just a flood" of bonds coming ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3DfzBR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GlGLS29U18JlhfDO-2FecnQ5zFv4Jzj7zfMNPSnEjK1TyzHg-2BjJMBanAK-2BzgWIHmdaf-2B-2Fj3xM8rNQoev5V-2B35k-2BTNf-2FncNJrHRJDVNrFG4PihuwT3ypP-2BKEWe4hgnwFtezDg-3D-3D)).

- **Jensen Huang gave the cleanest bull math yet, and pitched Nvidia chips as loan collateral.** A one-gigawatt "AI factory" costs "$50 billion" and rents for "$40 to $50 billion per year." He argues Nvidia chips are "fungible" and "durable," and so can become "an asset class, kind of like an airplane." That makes them "collateralized" assets with "the lowest" cost of capital ([Hard Fork / The Ezra Klein Show, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3DzFh0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GkGFxJcDmvWSBK9hLH1fYmog09xxVjhMmWUp2VkiCxWoeygVcnSMLN0ZvlFC6XwZA8Y7ap8tYu8nBE19uL4oU8uUUpDjTTfc9ADokxRbJIsCq3DaL0U7wTvY8NjztvDahA-3D-3D)).

- **The loudest bear case this weekend: the chips aren't plugged in.** Ed Zitron estimates Microsoft has only "2.2 million GPUs in service," worth "$50 to $60 billion," despite "$265 billion" of capex since 2022. He counts "$374 billion of construction in progress" across a dozen builders ("$122 billion" at Google alone) and concludes "approximately 50% of all AI hardware… is being warehoused" ([Better Offline, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3DMA3B_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GrwBTMGpiO4oFgTK6V4WszNl8rZ-2FDxqfmdJTYcUuWxKL02w8cCdh1rynuaPNJ746kLjFEzcFfzxanyRPrPkBSPrGvHcgI0ELMau4rhWkDzcvZRhwhXJ6denKJXlebalIjA-3D-3D)). These are an independent critic's estimates, not company disclosures, but they go straight at the question of whether spending turns into revenue.

## What's new

**A note on the window and the order.** This Monday issue covers three days: Friday (23 relevant podcasts), Saturday (3) and Sunday (4). I've ranked the stories by what could move a portfolio: first the size of the total bill and whether it earns its keep (Chanos, Goldman), then the operator's answer (Huang), then the "is it even switched on" challenge (Zitron), then physical power supply (Morgan Stanley), then the memory print on Wednesday. The Oracle follow-up and the IPO window are covered along the way.

**A quick plain-English key.** **Return on incremental invested capital (ROIIC)**: how much extra profit each new dollar of investment produces. **Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)**: the blended rate a company pays for its money, from lenders and shareholders; if returns fall below it, new investment destroys value. **Construction in progress (CIP)**: a balance-sheet line for assets that have been bought or started but not yet put to work. **Special purpose vehicle (SPV)**: a separate company set up to hold one project and its debt, often keeping that debt off the sponsor's balance sheet. **Credit default swap (CDS) spread**: the price of insuring a company's debt against default; a wider spread means more worry. **Force majeure**: a contract clause excusing a party when events outside its control get in the way. **HBM**: high-bandwidth memory, the stacked memory chips that sit next to AI processors. **DRAM ASP**: the average selling price of standard memory chips.

**1. The bill is now $10–12 trillion over five years, and a famous short-seller says returns cross below the cost of money next year.**
[RiskReversal Pod, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3DFYyX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Glxy7nKPxSBzfneIzOqh9nlKuxzbU2plVR6QwUckCdWbRBG3eEeaLwfNIolximHPqJ8rGmzfgWeQEteRfEDngFW2cpkiOOvuKPbGqv-2FAjJJFgPkmEOMOCzP6T3MSbj1RuQ-3D-3D): Dan Nathan with Jim Chanos (Kynikos Associates founder, famous for shorting Enron) and AI scientist Gary Marcus. [Squawk on the Street, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3D7wu3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GgdvxESIO2m5Gl0f0vmss3Sa2yftC2pKukxTo7O-2FPEihFcRgMlkZv-2FxqtlX6SsvUcKEL6bmMNaiRJytwltAimwg7oWx82OtKfMMbJq-2BUqkVl6spUY-2BmTrTPQE9vEssewkQ-3D-3D): CNBC's morning team. (Chanos is an investor who is short parts of this trade, so treat this as informed opinion, not operator testimony.)

Chanos says his firm started studying the AI build "late '25" because "the numbers were beginning to accelerate so dramatically." His central finding:

> "Returns on incremental invested capital… peaked in 2024 and have been declining ever since, and at a rapid rate… If it continues at the current curve of decline, the hyperscalers… will have returns below their weighted average cost of capital sometime in mid-27, which I don't think the market is prepared for."

Then he put the Street's newest estimate into context. Goldman "raised their estimate of total spending on data centers by 50 gigawatts, which is $2.5 to $3 trillion over the next five years. That was just the increase." The total is "$10 to $12 trillion, which is about 6% of GDP… 1x to 2x the U.S. personal savings rate." In other words, "the personal savings rate is going to go into AI data centers for the next five years, according to the street… So you're starting to get really silly numbers."

**Why it moves numbers.** Three things.

- **Credit is ahead of stocks.** Marcus asked why lenders have "caught on" while the stock market hasn't. Chanos: "the last three to four or five months, the credit markets have begun to tighten… if you lend money to someone, you're only getting your money back plus interest." He expects "more and more equity… like converts or pure equity" because companies "don't want to show large interest expense because they're not covering it."

- **Only the hyperscalers are making money.** "With the exception of the hyperscalers, pretty much everybody else is losing money on a real economic basis." He's watching the Anthropic and OpenAI filings to "see how they define their profitability."

- **The Street's own capex numbers keep rising while its bond desks lean the other way.** On Squawk, CNBC relayed that Goldman "upped their global capex to 1.2 for '27. But they also say they're underweight hyperscaler issuance because there's just a flood of [it] coming." The same segment recalled Jamie Dimon saying "JP Morgan is expecting a trillion dollars in capex this year," a number "dramatically [up] from previous estimates."

Chanos also went straight at Oracle's Project Jupiter structure: "It's an Enron-like structure. It's SPV." Marcus: "Instead of my dog ate my homework, it's my God ate my homework."

**2. Jensen Huang's pitch: a gigawatt pays for itself in about a year, and Nvidia chips are collateral like airplanes.**
[Hard Fork, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3DAAvx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GgiGhoIoQu4x4iEAcRdDWMEs-2BY6-2FGv75n0G-2FMZxgHRq7nl5e88eucBHelJbUR4CdcHMuoeoVHUjg7dA6fN01eHT-2FA5CMZOrUlpazbyTCc-2B-2BjHa5wiEi8c7-2BQNPswup10fA-3D-3D): the Hard Fork feed re-ran The Ezra Klein Show's interview with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. (Operator testimony. It's also the CEO talking his own book.)

Most of the interview was about AI safety. The part that matters for capex was Huang's defense of the economics:

> "$50 billion to build a one gigawatt data center, one gigawatt AI factory. And you can rent it for 40 to $50 billion per year. And so, the productivity of it is incredible."

He then set out why Nvidia hardware should be cheap to finance. It's "fungible because we're general purpose," so "if a customer no longer needs it, another customer would be more than happy to pick it up." It's "durable" because software updates keep old chips useful, so "the useful life of our compute is much longer." Put together, "people are talking about NVIDIA compute as an asset class, kind of like an airplane… it starts out as a passenger plane, ends its life as… a cargo plane." The payoff: "the cost of capital for funding NVIDIA AI factories will be the lowest. Because our computers are collateral, collateralized asset." He calls this "a huge unlock for our growth."

On the charge that Nvidia creates its own demand by funding customers: "We can't really create demand because in the end… if the AI services have no offtake, then obviously building computers for it is pointless." Demand is real, he says, because "$500 billion of venture funding are coming in," and "those thousands of companies, startups, they all need compute." He also expects labs to use far more compute for safety testing, perhaps "a factor of 10" more.

**Why it moves numbers.** Huang's figures give a gross revenue payback of roughly one year on a gigawatt (my arithmetic, before power, staff and financing costs). That is the whole bull case in one sentence. The "airplane" framing speaks straight to the depreciation debate: if GPUs really last as long as he says, six-year accounting lives hold up. And it matches the "chips as collateral" theme from August. Nvidia wants its hardware to be something lenders will finance.

**3. The counter-punch: the chips may be sitting in warehouses.**
[Better Offline, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3DTrOZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GqA4CwtEWXH33iOK9SVNJN-2BFHIbROGuTANe4CjjZl5cyzx2UpwdML9yO1M3UprsQ3-2FScvrAfFetQBZNbDeYCitl98L-2B0BZlCLsSUBH1YyqlUOzBb4UZybTiKRyBLQE-2FDqw-3D-3D): Ed Zitron, tech critic (Cool Zone Media), drawing on his reporting with The Guardian. (Independent critic's estimates, not company disclosures. Weigh accordingly.)

Zitron's argument, number by number:

- **Microsoft.** "Only had 2.2 million GPUs in service," estimated at "about 1.993 gigawatts" worth "$50 to $60 billion." He cites Bloomberg that "only 2 gigawatts out of their total 12 gigawatts of data center capacity was specifically for AI," even though Microsoft talked about adding "a gigawatt in each of the last three quarters." After "over $265 billion on capital expenditures since the beginning of 2022," he estimates "as much as $106 billion worth of GPUs and associated hardware are now sitting either unpowered… or in warehouses."

- **Everyone else.** Google, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, SpaceX, Tesla, CoreWeave, IREN, Core Scientific and Applied Digital "all have about $374 billion of construction in progress." That includes "$122 billion" at Google and "$71 billion" at Amazon (as of end-2025). The number "has grown every single time it's been reported for the last 12 quarters." Adding the companies that don't report it, "the total… is somewhere between $400 and $500 billion."

- **The conclusion.** "Approximately 50% of all AI hardware and chips that have been sold is being warehoused, and will take more than two years to fully ingest." That makes Nvidia's sales largely "a pre-order campaign that arrives sometime in 2028, 2029." He also claims OpenAI "made up 70% of Microsoft's AI revenues in fiscal year 2026."

> "This is magnitudes worse than the dot-com bubble… akin to the fiber optic cable not even being laid in the ground."

**Why it moves numbers.** If he's even half right, the sticking point isn't demand for chips. It's getting them powered and generating revenue, and that changes when depreciation starts and when revenue shows up. It fits last week's Jupiter story (a campus waiting on permits and a pipeline). It also fits the Morgan Stanley power-shortfall figure below. The claim to test: watch whether CIP balances finally start falling in the Q3 filings as projects go live.

**4. The Oracle follow-up: lenders got a phone call, and the rating question is now open.**
[Squawk on the Street, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3D8sFt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GhIAZ0f6dfeSz6YBdzWBc6OHEbH45LfnY3-2BXaOy2lR9RyL9znTys4lJq8dxH3DgZpcQsZ6c3cEGC4knJ3TC5e0xjf3DkE67bdZXKlEcUQcSoqCV4JOBjpYsxwO-2FDVE5OYg-3D-3D): CNBC team, with a reporter citing conversations with sources. [Motley Fool Hidden Gems, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgFdxyroU5HPxB2f8aIIzIf-2B7ZtL1pnCM4RDKPTEKtdSQs7rps30N9lHtqR-2BQODjr0zM-2FZKdGl7Z-2Bs41S4GEkzKuI92RKg8lI3SJyoGGb6HZQ-3D-3Di-60_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GpKV163MjcrdI3TFU7WyP9DyHm-2Flf3tUJ6e0LCVo4uPGGVA2FydUoAwlyzGesKwQ6kspta8-2BCs1JrSS-2FUpWo57PzXLUuBSh2JVVXv-2FDdGb8iG-2FgHUmMovP5QtMjsTfbrQA-3D-3D): Motley Fool analysts. [The Real Eisman Playbook, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiSPtXIaHZK58nJuX01MO2-2BRv-2Fp1FkqVEfcNj59SgTCAFTpAczKpn0qwJh0Vo8l9LbNEX2gtWowtW-2BLIlHes0O-2Fvjizu7hur9rG1p4nLidFCg-3D-3DDMIw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gq0tfX5TpQZ6-2F4mkiDkrNs0gicrt5lh8uSz9ofXUrpqfGcQ62ssLoWtOwlOlY5ZbWv4kpSxwzsRd8Y1ftLLvR3iUbsmlYbDjP3ZNgqjRFmOo-2BDIGioecNS3H-2BjxMokeURg-3D-3D): Steve Eisman (of "The Big Short"). [Rebel Capitalist News, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbxWeUMnbtiNMFULanEPyVW1LmGW1WVroCxHVnwTdjyzJGEDVJeXKx1ba1aQ4-2BZB6FuuBbO3klOuTjQGCyTl1EdyEncq6-2B49tM6SkTe5Httg-3D-3Dnqup_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GtmJt8nX0KFxSMSgncEXeQ3ca9zKwvVqzTh7VOlhiCF1NH0GdpWaJm-2FOekmm6MoKOFyP2hf8XqIOKwUFhZ9bJskb1HzhHKifEaJ5IDMLFAZRtCrUHqKz6Zjyci-2B-2BifZ8dQ-3D-3D): macro commentary channel. (Reported news plus pundit opinion.)

**Who bears the loss is getting clearer, and it's Oracle.** CNBC's reporter said Blue Owl "is essentially covered here. I was told they had a call with the lenders where they communicated, don't worry, you will get your money back." Oracle, by contrast, "is on the hook for those rent payments over an extended period of time. They're on the hook if the power ultimately is denied." Result: "you've seen their CDS widen. You've seen the cost of their own borrowing go up." Her sources' view if Oracle can't take it: "well, someone else will come in… there's so much demand." A co-host called that "the anti-dark fiber thesis."

**The balance sheet backdrop.** Motley Fool's analyst: Oracle had "$37 billion worth of cash, about $125 billion worth of debt" as of its August 2026 quarter, and "the cost of that debt has exploded" at both Oracle and CoreWeave. A colleague calls Oracle "the canary in the coal mine… the first domino that could be tipped." Eisman adds that Oracle's leverage "forced S&P to downgrade the company's credit rating to BBB minus, which is only one level above junk." Squawk noted "discussion… about whether or not they're in jeopardy of losing their investment grade." Rebel Capitalist recalls that Oracle's co-CEO told analysts on September 10 that Jupiter "would not affect its previously stated fiscal 2027 revenue or earnings." It also notes the setbacks include "the denial of a permit."

**The revenue that depends on this.** From Squawk: Oracle revenue "is supposed to double… That's $60 billion, $70 billion in incremental revenue that's supposed to be coming. And it's only if it happens, only if these projects happen."

**Eisman's wider warning: off-balance-sheet debt is back.** He points to Meta's "$27 billion data center in Louisiana," held in an SPV called Beignet Investor LLC. Meta "owns, technically, only 20%," with "the rest owned by Blue Owl and Pimco," yet Meta "has promised to rent the data center… for 20 years and bears the cost of any project delays and overruns." Ernst & Young flagged it as a "critical audit matter" in Meta's 2025 10-K. His verdict: "it doesn't pass the smell test… you should expect many more such transactions in the future, and not just at Meta." He also said Nvidia "just recently raised prices by 15%," and that "should the 10-year remain above 5%, a correction I think is probably imminent."

**A deal that didn't get enough attention:** Akamai "penned the seven-year deal to supply computing services for Anthropic, $11.6 billion with an option for $9 billion more," leading S&P 500 gainers pre-market ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3Dvh1s_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gpn5oX3I3vbwDEUbkaTwkKKHkWUANmgpPKo8b4CbCueJV2RFeZQULaAZsYKwA-2FzBgjBEquURWjoll7hCuURPimMxRwiBu9VJnpY-2Be2hQJVBPTROEwG9irbzLUyBsHZRKZQ-3D-3D)). That's another non-hyperscaler landlord taking on AI-lab demand.

**5. Power: Morgan Stanley hears no slowdown. Turbines are booking for 2031–32 and prices are still rising.**
[Thoughts on the Market, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5uwhSkL2boXpZkljWryenx66RlG5JX8ZN-2Bz1AAdI9IVf3JE-2BXzwg6ewESkd7BZETRG3kjImWPg79e1FMrTACzsZXQRwcD4a1ptaDeJjp4-2FA-3D-3DHNfH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GhontaOrck7ZAX9jrqZykEdA-2FY2KUI0cjaBi19l4atCrAtQSXLeXw79bC14ixP6lCAZaYjox9LGUa509nvjR1NTaP5F86xnRcLPX1hLHb2G3gqRCjzkjKMnWhZ5H-2FqOpCw-3D-3D): Morgan Stanley's power-equipment analyst (introduced only as "Dave"), reporting back from the firm's Laguna conference. [The Wall Street Skinny, Sept 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi0sHhuRbfTQaKBi96hPbp3780VZdzwz5eqlm6CsJWOmTm9PwrepEpnA9dL0C-2FWg4mncR1ZrxhjPGLg3JIqBHGGVQ8ynj-2B6wRB5U-2FujMO-2BkqA-3D-3Dj2IJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GmGQBGvhUQIl8ypoNPukvmNFNZcaoqnLLPo4r-2B5CA4xDdEM9u8zaCEYZMJmdgWRd88ddjI5tcSMI5wXhrD7eikDyOaIwi8vg7QsdTJHE0EnCLgcDh76HOxw1X9jm5S-2F27A-3D-3D): Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's head of U.S. thematic research. (Sell-side analysts relaying management commentary: one step removed from operators.)

This is the direct rebuttal to "Jupiter means the build is slowing." Across turbine makers and on-site power companies:

> "We all see the headlines about data center moratoriums, political pushback… But at least with the power equipment companies, they're just not seeing it… We haven't seen any changes in bookings or slot reservations for equipment deliveries."

The order books are stretching years out. GE Vernova is "now in conversations to contract turbines for 2031 and 2032." Smaller engine makers like INNIO are "taking reservations into 2029 and 2030." Utilities are "looking out farther and farther now into the 2030s. That's new." Pricing "has been rising… likely to keep rising… into the 2030s." "Very much a seller's market."

Weaver put a size on the gap: "our team is forecasting a 57 gigawatt shortfall for power needed through 2028." Even after counting "Bloom Energy's fuel cells… natural gas turbines… powered shell provider solutions" from former bitcoin miners, "we still end up with around a 30 to 40 percent shortfall." Her co-host's scale check: New York City at peak uses about "10 gigawatts," so that's "like six New York Cities."

**Why it moves numbers.** Two readings, both useful. For the equipment makers (GEV, VRT, ETN, Bloom), the backlog is getting longer and pricing firmer. For the capex bulls, a 57 GW shortfall is another way of saying that a lot of the chips being bought can't be switched on soon, which is Zitron's point from the other side.

## The debate

**Bull: the returns are real, and the only constraint is physical.**
- **The payback math.** "$50 billion to build a one gigawatt data center… rent it for 40 to $50 billion per year" ([Hard Fork / The Ezra Klein Show, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3Duygl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GkwocA8Tsd9kIIfoAvKvlluPxXub-2Bu553DI-2Bh49kHGm59kH8R9aulP3hEYxupMBr0d7NFAbyamyWqNrRl6WHuLi-2BEaro7p5YyG-2BFoKeIpn6QdobIokJQNJmF4qrapa9jQw-3D-3D)).
- **Useful life is long.** Nvidia says old chips keep running new models thanks to software. "The useful life of our compute is much longer," so GPUs can be financed "like an airplane" (same source).
- **Suppliers see no cancellations.** Power-equipment makers report no "changes in bookings or slot reservations," with turbines booked into "2031 and 2032" ([Thoughts on the Market, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5uwhSkL2boXpZkljWryenx66RlG5JX8ZN-2Bz1AAdI9IVf3JE-2BXzwg6ewESkd7BZETRG3kjImWPg79e1FMrTACzsZXQRwcD4a1ptaDeJjp4-2FA-3D-3D69ki_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GsSdpTQ1WdRpD-2FlT0muzOPn-2BwG7S-2BNXYNv3khvzfqpUe0WDjEgomcOyAXbkqe3yDLvGBpN60DoLvgGPP33TMahTwZGKck6bWVuYfx6oCJwI1poX-2FTbgaLjz4P19zj-2B3l4A-3D-3D)).
- **Demand keeps outrunning forecasts.** Futurum's team says its 2030 CPU forecast "went from 110 billion in 2030 to 250 billion," and its "2030 cumulative CapEx went over 14 trillion." "Every time we think we've sort of figured out what the max demand… could be… there's a new use" ([Futurum Equities Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DsoJg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GunYscHd0JuUWqYFf1K2bOq-2FsOLmhhkZzKXjqnSNCw2xH0fiL2ovDpvO4YfZcODrbHaw1jLx0F2gcGXWZoTFIy6fu0iWiUev5lEMOxCilP5kGfYSFtZHb3pSa4M-2F0w6U0g-3D-3D)).
- **If a tenant drops out, someone else takes the space.** The landlords' view on Jupiter: "someone else will come in… there's so much demand" ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3DjWTu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GpLNWuJHMqgrZczebo9nhyN79mJu4ycJOx4zkN62o-2FGySDw3EFzwyWeKdaNHs-2BaUl-2F-2FSkE8r-2BOuyeFuvTLUCngIQeirVX5nQFpcaMzb1RPJrCqeB-2F4BNjKh9AV8CPXVYaQ-3D-3D)).

**Bear: returns are falling, the chips are idle, and the debt is hidden.**
- **Returns on new investment fall below cost of capital in "mid-27"** at the current rate of decline ([RiskReversal Pod, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3DVzEp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GjsqfhVNtJZ5xBgA-2BndhoxvWi6yItZclKmqTnJjXyIa0m0N72I3eebfXUs-2BWkmj3FJLDrfqRh-2FVwfA65xJgOhYgev0buecnkF11mEq3kQ5qPeHz-2FD25pMUgDKZQsK9CTAQ-3D-3D)).
- **Half the hardware is unplugged,** with "$374 billion" of construction in progress and counting ([Better Offline, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3DEYNV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GunwRZUCBas0qyk8j1381me0WxM5B8UY-2FrCrX8GFR9xca185X4tbXmLd8ygCemiY0tKfL8G15cyCkQ-2Bvulg33vbmoLPG8gNsj4L8S0pyaxhj74DJjgqhbnXXPxHoPZnXQg-3D-3D)).
- **Off-balance-sheet structures are spreading.** Meta's "$27 billion" Beignet SPV, an auditor's "critical audit matter," and Oracle at "BBB minus" ([The Real Eisman Playbook, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiSPtXIaHZK58nJuX01MO2-2BRv-2Fp1FkqVEfcNj59SgTCAFTpAczKpn0qwJh0Vo8l9LbNEX2gtWowtW-2BLIlHes0O-2Fvjizu7hur9rG1p4nLidFCg-3D-3D2P89_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GpxpH-2BU4Gn2JOMfF3-2FSzOKRJB68bnIil8wTod-2FVKkto213FLZMUt8hCLu8GPnCdmrrYvfTpl1Igl34Ppo9sepeOw6gPsEpB23yDD33edNXZVcyrbWjVb-2B8jhLFjnVHOadA-3D-3D)).
- **Money is getting more expensive.** The 10-year Treasury hit "5.23%… the highest it's been since 2004," and "the last time the Fed was raising rates into a boom like this was 1999." The IPO window is getting shakier: "just three IPOs since Labor Day, and five of the ten largest listings this year are now trading below their offer prices" ([Patrick Boyle On Finance, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjpQAbw3rfG2iqZJnEBheycbzs0jvIdTyXGiJpmtxG0gulOy8ntSjUvmocZZDfpG8E8lCF9uQhbRPnlqGLcXk1eL6Qw2SWAKSEVkTvRQB7XoA-3D-3DV1Vf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gq-2FRvvA2e-2FVEPiax0P2VAQA2RF8lFh1mp6eSCQkBDr-2BheW1Wh9N7lgaBRcsakpiuM0vdRHN7AfeNqZ5jaaWgyHoFD01gV5xF7zbsbwfIgGeNZR8dlvva6x8MSrMTMaJRKA-3D-3D)).
- **The biggest customers are losing more as they grow.** OpenAI lost "roughly 10 billion" on "$4 billion" of 2024 revenue and "about 30 billion" on "$13 billion" in 2025, with 2026 expenses likely "70, 80 billion dollar, maybe more" on a "$40 billion" run rate ([The Enterprise AI Show, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiLV-2Bo26hr9UyMjuAVsxH3mICzgoe4JAWNnvzIboqVMgS-2BrN5TWJkxdDf1oKqQCnxPvNdq9AWKSn-2FkecWvhz4egMXTsyLdtj45-2BPzweYXtksg-3D-3DiUyB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GmGvkxPRd3P73omzIDZXbkO6zV4B1MRKLfZI-2Bucz-2Fjw1dCxs0HafKwAya3OvEeQhuzOiaeLoyzJYZ5qORdqU0-2FfaL97tvKjhwMilkjo-2Fvgo6yZLdlUgMibgx6D8zo6h-2FdA-3D-3D)). One analyst cites OpenAI projections of "almost 280 billion" of cash burn "by 2030" ([Investing Experts, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjcc2TWOOcP9kS57l79QYKv2c1RHvwuPZNoJ66j4JHZ-2Bkn5n3pl4MBsQ6DHG9VFSNWYAccX-2FvlF6-2Br-2Fj-2FwMnYp-2F62DJ-2BviBBdLbWX9RDnPtXA-3D-3D6eXE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GtbbfYoW5SBOC-2BBFejbGGBI9mTPpGbqRs5nR4fHWVdSmEfzN-2BFDOFyj8EfCm-2BJ14Vn4UGnMHP03XYsb-2BEiIDFJzaV86w2mHd1JNFqxMsmzVdaX8R8weZZ-2B3bjSRJ7c3nkw-3D-3D)).

**Sell signals to watch.**
1. **Oracle losing investment grade.** It's one notch from junk at S&P. A cut would reprice every Oracle-linked lease and project loan.
2. **Micron guiding gross margin *down*** from the 86% it guided last quarter, or memory contracts softening (see read-throughs). That would be the first crack in the most supply-tight part of the chain.
3. **Construction-in-progress still rising in Q3 filings** while AI revenue growth slows. That would support Zitron's warehousing claim.
4. **The 10-year holding above 5%.** Eisman's "correction… probably imminent" trigger.
5. **Anthropic's IPO priced well below the reported ~$2 trillion, or delayed again.** It's the public market's first direct price on an AI lab.
6. **Another force majeure or rent-deferral notice** on a different powered-shell lease.

## Stocks in play

**NVDA.** *Bull:* Huang's "$50 billion" build, "$40 to $50 billion per year" rent, and chips as "collateralized" assets ([Hard Fork, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicZyXy4PYtwMSrp4yVesDUmbPbBUFOK85Q-2FVbLRBB1fVS-2FJf6GbanaXa4VeUglnVDKwhniqOn7P7-2BJbS7nCkyclr-2B9FaYzX2fHiPZ0VNkxYw-3D-3DPrfU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gh8650v-2BmgixDnH2j1KJlTzhT6eu-2BlTDQkx3y6gLVdIPFzKn0LvgUgl9UuonI5pf-2FxmsVre7j0hGwM39lgCoL1rMZbyW33AXHdTzIrKuW3jX8lxDDon-2FdIZXhsFeWfgWGA-3D-3D)). Futurum notes Nvidia at "15 times 2027 earnings" ([Futurum Equities Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DsVqL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gjtf1W-2F50fTnOGv1eM-2FVz9djkOinUcIGLqzHIi1JvoH-2FMSAC4s6CRq0NUXkuHtGSYIJRzqbXU4F0ncuvaVB87Tf7TSEbvtaan6HgAqsfYDjetDsPIJb2DANkKg182-2Bkr3g-3D-3D)). Patrick Boyle notes that relative to expected profits it's "the cheapest it's been in over a decade," citing Bloomberg ([Patrick Boyle On Finance, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjpQAbw3rfG2iqZJnEBheycbzs0jvIdTyXGiJpmtxG0gulOy8ntSjUvmocZZDfpG8E8lCF9uQhbRPnlqGLcXk1eL6Qw2SWAKSEVkTvRQB7XoA-3D-3DJNAF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GlICJmOLK1Z64GMMJ-2BGCYx8yD2PlNTc5gXAcmU2Xg1ngf2zoXy6b5K7ADW9vc0ozHDTX6cNdmVKDNKHet2b8tjEmaS0v-2FOzdUVGoTeSUZKx5BtNfTuMK8f1CpLt-2FvVsSKw-3D-3D)). *Bear:* Zitron argues "$200 and $300 billion in revenue" was "sold probably 24 to 36 months in advance," so it's pre-orders, not installed demand ([Better Offline, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3DsFuW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gtmz2I0MoHwPcjoT7-2BIAGKs870ay3yza64Jaa-2FkBRVTL6c1VQnfWRVoklfA4nh2PmoILS5ck23RCncmhLfE3bKyc9azRWJUkK-2BhDqup2OISWiSC1Dfd9Dh-2FhdgrYDiuIuQ-3D-3D)). *Next catalyst:* Micron on Sept 30, as a read on how much memory Nvidia's customers are buying; then hyperscaler Q3 capex guides.

**AVGO.** *Bull:* 7investing prices it at "21, 22 times its forward free cash flow" with growth of "at least 60% plus for the year 2027." Management "says they're going to do something, and then they do it," heading for "more than $100 billion per year in AI product revenues." The analyst estimates "$40 billion last year, $60 billion this year" of AI chip spend per gigawatt ([The 7investing Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT30blD3z-2BNLXaMWKrH9WSfJnec8rnaylZcdEe8xXs26s-2BjZO-2FTkZQDCYM19j-2Fwi-2FB7syVGPKppRG5AyPr7nTk1t9M1feDWiN1ZHGRi15hig-3D-3D5BTP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GlAsvpidk6i7MrtUUIpujMEwWpWA8VZpLbbAZVTlfKHFnJMpMz5WFc9AHgBMPuBDgLDlXUtHv0sh1qYBEK7WG66BRCyLJW-2B6DIOJShnqnXONmD-2FoG4qPYU4xjuDll4Xz3g-3D-3D)). (Retail-advisory pundit.) *Bear:* no new Broadcom bear signal this cycle. Last issue's MediaTek/TPU share risk stands. *Next catalyst:* hyperscaler custom-chip commentary on Q3 calls.

**AMD.** *Bull:* its CPUs "are kind of leading the charge" inside Meta's Muse, per Futurum ([Futurum Equities Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3DBb4C_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GoqBPBv6MQzPiCkLY2zC96vlYOPxPnol-2BuYnYwf8FAd9Lre23LX33M396K9OScYReJIF7NSFhZsZy8bVAM-2FdFgaCop4vyf8qz5pAAkONwKVpGw-2BnwyHrQn4FJI0-2BBEaLpw-3D-3D)). *Bear:* the same show says it's "trading at 40 times 2027 earnings while NVIDIA is trading at 15." "Helios is the first scale-up rack that they even have… and they're not monetized yet." They also flag "like 160 million AMD shares" of warrants held by Meta and OpenAI as dilution: "the price of the stock is almost like zero execution risk at this point" (same source). *Next catalyst:* the Helios ramp, and AMD's Q3 print.

**MSFT.** *Bull:* quiet on the podcasts this cycle. *Bear:* Zitron's "2 gigawatts out of… 12" for AI, and "$106 billion" of hardware unpowered or warehoused ([Better Offline, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3D1dpP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GozoOfmoIz6EMbOg7VLH3akBqP1KFDK1m7NQxDNWgR-2F-2FhPkpnfZmYBrMs-2FAny13PHWBNm6qngdAFtdSaXk2tQxAxSxynXB3aaklxykfe62lkDahsPTnTk3VmF49dhmmQXg-3D-3D)). Also price pressure: "Microsoft is announcing tiered volume discounts, 30 to 50% for large enterprise customers" ([Investing Experts, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjcc2TWOOcP9kS57l79QYKv2c1RHvwuPZNoJ66j4JHZ-2Bkn5n3pl4MBsQ6DHG9VFSNWYAccX-2FvlF6-2Br-2Fj-2FwMnYp-2F62DJ-2BviBBdLbWX9RDnPtXA-3D-3DGN-U_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gi6dO1PmBv41YsWQME-2F3qv-2BNwlcBW8E8Er-2BX3Qjo-2B8RUNcdbhqXRtj4hDV-2BdXfhkeVWReHPP9dK3yoaGhMX1IFwRcKKnkgVOVyDDYGfve69kwZqxzLFdUDEJ3H3i6b3h-2Bw-3D-3D)). *Next catalyst:* fiscal Q1 earnings (late October; date not given on the podcasts), including any disclosure of AI-specific capacity.

**GOOGL.** *Bull:* "Google Cloud is currently exploding due to Gemini" ([The Intrinsic Value Podcast, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhaSsyz53vT8WJt0qOXskeg4JhaUczV0NEB2Y2EIJqmd1AzvTkEk4KOprRE6o-2BTzlxNdPgOXnvj7L8g-2BeV-2BES6-2B0yp76JwadefKd0FyZGlJgQ-3D-3DUihH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gg7d4tfeVabf10G5PgwLN4-2F-2F5pEZAhleyYyZy7fDI7mQsINlx-2B-2FEIfg1RFLJ3-2BUTKvpS-2Bo1yezLyNpegqNJbxh61dItH9hSoKEvV1bIKwkWEvKUYaL0ajvWqXmnF6UV9tw-3D-3D)). Futurum rates "Gemini Flash 3.8, very good" with "Gemini 4… on the way" ([Futurum Equities Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3D1l1p_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GnaAk1YQVCNDfbMzwUbAs9vHzHDrfpAIkQNtRAeNBDXTOWk852i6ml22f6MbDdiJXg57U7utpDpEUWiA-2FuZYa9o50Lx-2BLYylqwh3kpDvbyK-2BdrHbaOOlucDxMQzYEj5HFQ-3D-3D)). *Bear:* the largest single construction-in-progress balance in Zitron's count, "around $122 billion" ([Better Offline, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3Dy1g8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gmv-2BTXlNXYA-2FjNdsqBsCQ4U5pK-2BcVAlSTnR0OvGRTElwM1aOJ7HAU6Hkqtjb-2FovE8ing4FWTYplLZhTofCRsrvWDnwDs8Dj1jxrKb2xbY7GOYq9QUEqwUSfWvarzA9KwuA-3D-3D)). *Next catalyst:* Q3 earnings; any news on the Suncatcher satellite launch flagged last issue (no follow-up this cycle).

**AMZN.** *Bull:* quiet on the podcasts this cycle beyond its Anthropic partnership ([The Intrinsic Value Podcast, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhaSsyz53vT8WJt0qOXskeg4JhaUczV0NEB2Y2EIJqmd1AzvTkEk4KOprRE6o-2BTzlxNdPgOXnvj7L8g-2BeV-2BES6-2B0yp76JwadefKd0FyZGlJgQ-3D-3DabDi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GmCFe2JsrS7-2B6kLl2rebZKHR7FQ8oB-2FN90vR0fP6UbH4z10LAFzycS-2B6HAh7bP0p9PVxPIxQZvAko66Fuy43NAkOBZSP1wdmFgxMzyWmnJwEtEhIdZIUpAjaMtuYf35emw-3D-3D)). *Bear:* "$71 billion" of construction in progress, and that figure is only "current as of the end of 2025" ([Better Offline, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGzytAu17kbJDO1xI1T8O0sHOhQBZWsyyu92pACbYng2seUfvXe82ux3y6jfbVbFm6NqSbvRJ9YB0lrkszuhTtXP2NMSODLTt6dAa4EYvUDA-3D-3DIeBe_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gn02XAyovqC9c3uQNDedhWRhTF-2BY-2BRMPvsAFBvkoCFD6nm43i-2B-2BinKf-2BmM4BSsbhcFdBSgFh5DhdGngbzJRZ3CSA3npUc-2F12MNHIThZDXGixnU-2Btn2TyWJg32-2B4SpmN3oA-3D-3D)). *Next catalyst:* Q3 earnings.

**META.** *Bull:* Futurum says Meta is "40%" higher in roughly "10 trading sessions" on Muse. It sees "a direct monetization path now through the $20 and $100 subscription tiers" plus a cut of agent transactions ([Futurum Equities Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3D9xw1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GinCqoNXqxT1tUHElNBsV6lAINLDXWalyARlG2iyiSsjcElEh7NSKmYZrBAlB3JM0uVa77-2F0Nf76HoarzXwMjzJkzICRUIIz0JvY5DSiRvopgPjOSszwCTLfQbSD8yRXBA-3D-3D)). *Bear:* The Intrinsic Value Podcast's model has Meta producing "basically no free cash flow between 2026 and 2028… massively negative in 2027," with "close to $90 billion" only returning around 2030. Its capex path: "$130 and $145 billion" in 2026, then "close to $200 billion" consensus for 2027, with $230 billion in its bear case ([The Intrinsic Value Podcast, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhaSsyz53vT8WJt0qOXskeg4JhaUczV0NEB2Y2EIJqmd1AzvTkEk4KOprRE6o-2BTzlxNdPgOXnvj7L8g-2BeV-2BES6-2B0yp76JwadefKd0FyZGlJgQ-3D-3DIDIx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GrLT-2Fb4FGU8I-2BKJ6iXBVAhZEX4bfyPS9sJ8kkVl2dHjWt9TErGNN2zusKqWireCx1wNe3vSQtTa0ghTtoJlMrdLaXpR-2FG57KyqnpmW-2F68BqEUyuMdWvd5zcRkNJtQ-2B5Jow-3D-3D)). Eisman flags the off-balance-sheet Beignet SPV ([The Real Eisman Playbook, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiSPtXIaHZK58nJuX01MO2-2BRv-2Fp1FkqVEfcNj59SgTCAFTpAczKpn0qwJh0Vo8l9LbNEX2gtWowtW-2BLIlHes0O-2Fvjizu7hur9rG1p4nLidFCg-3D-3DJwnt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GmwIrcpNeVhasOLLalUBp8AWZE6OaCWBwV8bdXFmXwbf3ZXKCfbc8hTIUQTeYa-2B19q67robDhrWAUYy7IRXpQJ2gqpEyWcpo1H-2BRYaYwc-2BGjpNeFynLM6hw1Pm3an-2FzKfw-3D-3D)). *Next catalyst:* the Q3 call and its first 2027 capex number.

*Also in play:* **ORCL / Blue Owl (OWL):** lender call, CDS wider, BBB- ([Squawk on the Street, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3DGkBV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GpjaIsugcazvljFw4XUl4FFi0crIcJlIsNKQlHH8EsPrm6mkMb6pJKcjrmTeBss-2B-2BK0dnBjW9KSe4KMav-2FQZbxKCi3OT0CbtG8BZ8Btp6g-2BR9RiCHIqjQne1l-2BCijP8y7g-3D-3D); [The Real Eisman Playbook, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiSPtXIaHZK58nJuX01MO2-2BRv-2Fp1FkqVEfcNj59SgTCAFTpAczKpn0qwJh0Vo8l9LbNEX2gtWowtW-2BLIlHes0O-2Fvjizu7hur9rG1p4nLidFCg-3D-3Daqgn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GuWXKsn3Xzkohqbqwec9ZPQWgwzkTDbEtxjqd3NtayOkgu0ATseQqnvxdntzCA3IWlL0vIoLJaE4RYaJnfEClS0KGvI-2BDmfeGfqEJFHekxzi8g8bvW46v6kqA3IyBMD-2Bzg-3D-3D)). **Akamai (AKAM):** "$11.6 billion" Anthropic deal plus a "$9 billion" option (Squawk, above). **Micron (MU):** reports Wednesday, Sept 30 (see below).

## Read-throughs

- **Memory (MU, SK Hynix, Samsung): the print is Wednesday, and price increases are slowing.** Three views ahead of Micron's Sept 30 report:

- *The caution.* On Investing Experts, the host says "we've had a switch… in the memory sentiment intra-quarter." TrendForce now sees "DRAM ASP only going up 13 to 18 percent in Q3 versus… 50 to 60 percent in Q2." China's CXMT is expected to end the year near Micron's own monthly wafer output. The bar is high: Micron "guided for 86% gross margins after printing 84.6," and "we don't think the market is going to be very forgiving if Micron's gross margins aren't guided to expand again" ([Investing Experts, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjcc2TWOOcP9kS57l79QYKv2c1RHvwuPZNoJ66j4JHZ-2Bkn5n3pl4MBsQ6DHG9VFSNWYAccX-2FvlF6-2Br-2Fj-2FwMnYp-2F62DJ-2BviBBdLbWX9RDnPtXA-3D-3DeWSX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GvfvEKz6INcCJPIQXWX4MV6Fa3VX8HcQ3COHhfgA84RsIDVu5z5zL9fwPq-2B4AooWiMUrYlUaK2sy3tfpmtIis6g9D-2BYdAG2QipPW2WiDmQVdmcmyNwqCRvQ6OIZU0pfgMA-3D-3D)).

- *The specialist.* Semiconductor analyst Harsh Kumar on Closing Bell: "in 2023, Micron had negative 10% gross margin." HBM's "three to one" trade ratio (every HBM chip uses three times the wafer area of regular DRAM) squeezed supply. New fabs "take two, two and a half, three years… and they cost $8 to $10 billion," and "the first tranche of capacity actually comes on in middle of next year… I suspect we'll still be short." He expects NAND flash "might be the choke point" next year. Because HBM "is on a contractual basis," its prices can't rise "as aggressively in the middle of a contract" ([Closing Bell, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjf8Jn7mHltaoSfJ1fP1nXTE96pt1twPm0bszpZC1C3qk1aKRZ-2FhQ7MEnU2DcVoMzh-2BsWAd6-2BXj5YOYvrvbIjJP7EWP29uCUgvVpTahkynBag-3D-3D5YYb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GgK1tXAxRNxGBlwr1EEnxoHvNRyU4eURoFDkv9bsBUzFMapejXfRj11T2myFHmu3VA5GI2ms-2FTRuoRnp7p24M-2FRBjnwUyMo0EGW2HlAgm6vlS2oqhYmP6ooc-2FUzdxaqzYg-3D-3D)).

- *The mechanics.* Futurum warns the guide will look light because "Q4 has 14 weeks in it. Q1 only has 13 weeks." They're watching strategic customer agreements, whether HBM4 holds "that 20% market share," and capex as a signal of "whether management still sees major supply response coming in 2028." "I haven't heard one plausible evidence that memory pricing power is eroding, not one" ([Futurum Equities Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTVEGMdzjz1SZxAA6qH5Ab7c41v6B6iF88MXfMx4n7RnKai5nbGyhscahkYv29FHO8TgsR73ZjnGSOUC-2FP8oVeRsF3DvRZWEDpC4vaRMfo7w-3D-3Dfxx1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gg20zplpxYEk6W9n5P1Cccje3oBv7Bc5OmQEaZXGZnPjI-2BAsmeNL-2BEowXdloYjcIoc3gtUb3E12040QCR9Y5sJlvgQfp56OyQMaB0tGzeIM703rI0B36EnYUuylkrQQCag-3D-3D)). IBD's Ed Carson cites expectations of "940% year over year growth" in earnings on "351%" revenue growth, and worries about a "really negative reaction" if Micron hints that prices will fall ([Stock Market Today With IBD, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjixBx5X4yCuFQoKqlUbWVLrijxm6jBEeGWnbj4Y9G4z1YZKmSiDPb3wxoLTVpo5TwPoOnut34tpg1IXZw-2BQdyGdKQTGphChd-2BDCFByqGNPlw-3D-3Dh4No_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gha4FavsDzqz2szKnX23GikLGZKsRi3TumTSlkGLuwHzxDEhq-2FhZUuezp-2Ff3FtDbGl8UQ6JxBgKENmMw-2BGDwlgtUpJFlF4HZRxbGWaUtDVbTeUCQe-2BqUR00mCtXcv38WYw-3D-3D)).

- **Most actionable:** the gross-margin guide is the whole trade. Adjust for the 14-versus-13-week quarter before reacting to the headline.

- **Power / thermal (GEV, VRT, ETN, Bloom): order books into the 2030s.** GE Vernova is contracting turbines for "2031 and 2032," with pricing rising "into the 2030s" and no change in bookings ([Thoughts on the Market, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh5uwhSkL2boXpZkljWryenx66RlG5JX8ZN-2Bz1AAdI9IVf3JE-2BXzwg6ewESkd7BZETRG3kjImWPg79e1FMrTACzsZXQRwcD4a1ptaDeJjp4-2FA-3D-3DBFnv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GnYb0A8cR6umNLSB5Zw9bLiR28yfII9MmibTihQhM3klKh9hSnOzlo6C5UMbpDZShHWU2BvT5HJXtXRlzlHv8J72HXF8VVu3H8KA4YnfvR99Uay-2F2n3uDESdo7G-2BDOixOQ-3D-3D)). There's a "57 gigawatt shortfall" through 2028 ([The Wall Street Skinny, Sept 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi0sHhuRbfTQaKBi96hPbp3780VZdzwz5eqlm6CsJWOmTm9PwrepEpnA9dL0C-2FWg4mncR1ZrxhjPGLg3JIqBHGGVQ8ynj-2B6wRB5U-2FujMO-2BkqA-3D-3Dtjus_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9Gn6kXgYBdPs2AXLf3XdzvU9QlHi1b4l10Wot1ub5mQyK1HsXse8-2BP2wJNMEj8VllZJuTflnXjlJZeChCmcC-2FtFU6WrxZujYxr4qCBVuH-2BHy-2FnDAxaW7qahBvhwsq7D7Acg-3D-3D)). On the grid-versus-onsite debate, Morgan Stanley's analyst says utilities claim demand "is going to the grid eventually," while on-site vendors say "nobody wants the grid." He thinks on-site power becomes "an extremely large market" by 2030, and calls it "a really favorable… backdrop for both sides." **Most actionable:** the Jupiter selloff in GEV and Vertiv last week looks like the wrong read on the equipment makers. Their customers are ordering further out, not less.

- **Distributed power / utilities: a faster fix.** PowerSecure's Todd Jackson (an operator) says utilities have "35-40 gigawatts" of distributed energy resources (small generators and batteries spread across the grid) installed, growing "33%" a year, and they could cover "15-20% of peak grid demand by 2030." They can bridge data centers through the "2-3 year" transmission upgrade gap ([Energy Central, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjl9ZTLgVgkSsuPHsOYMdhRai2VugUSnbyEehKt19eJRHE5Zq3x6WT9MlYAXkarXf3WIQ8lc6peVkOOiSSkzSb6quAz0BIcPqQS6yrjTd85dw-3D-3DRMPu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GmdEGMnbx4Np77tgEePH6xiBVJHh-2B2UlHcs-2FsuXURaYK-2BzMB7QmQsOc8xXKcbXZFD2Ss-2BXVW92nGXAnMkS4thBp4Q-2BuDxCJBT-2BEt9pdTq4R-2FXMKUntpzAiaB3ZXJX3XDhg-3D-3D)).

- **Nuclear (VST, CEG, TLN) / ERCOT: quiet this cycle.** No PPA or Texas queue commentary surfaced. One tangential note: nuclear developer Holtec "postponed its IPO last week, citing market conditions" ([Patrick Boyle On Finance, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjpQAbw3rfG2iqZJnEBheycbzs0jvIdTyXGiJpmtxG0gulOy8ntSjUvmocZZDfpG8E8lCF9uQhbRPnlqGLcXk1eL6Qw2SWAKSEVkTvRQB7XoA-3D-3DN0wf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GmUmRezxROdNJvJaT1I4OFC-2B61Y-2FmKicGyLNIQDx2oLPsKmux96iB7r6E5IMhXoItO0UuZ1eTD8NC-2FnMEapvrkoHXLrrpRdDAn4EXGR6UZzMgTKbXT6aqbWY5q0QbL9LHQ-3D-3D)).

- **Optics / networking (MRVL, COHR, LITE, ALAB, CRDO): quiet this cycle.** No specialist commentary surfaced.

- **AI labs and the IPO window: price discipline returns.** Patrick Boyle takes apart a reported "$2 trillion" Anthropic valuation, about "31 times its revenue" on a roughly "$65 billion" run rate in August. Even with "no costs, no staff, no taxes… discount[ed]… at the treasury rate," all that revenue forever is "worth about $1.27 trillion today, about three quarters of a trillion short." He adds that Anthropic's filing "still hasn't appeared" and "OpenAI has pushed its listing out to next year" ([Patrick Boyle On Finance, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjpQAbw3rfG2iqZJnEBheycbzs0jvIdTyXGiJpmtxG0gulOy8ntSjUvmocZZDfpG8E8lCF9uQhbRPnlqGLcXk1eL6Qw2SWAKSEVkTvRQB7XoA-3D-3D8AlL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GsB0vCd-2FNp0KZGmzmJ8SukAkTZj3qweGQbeRAvsjuUB2QDLLSjOvZqWV9IW5pMVXyHatqhIAy7o2yO5TZbsdBCt3b-2FVVcCEGgQqEnBIH4kByF8FVSiyXhd9K3eG3tGUcrA-3D-3D)). **Most actionable:** a weak Anthropic deal would tighten financing for every neocloud and landlord that depends on the labs' contracts.

## What changed vs last issue

Last issue (Friday, Sept 25, "Oracle reaches for the escape clause. Lenders already flinched.") covered the Sept 24 podcasts: Oracle's Jupiter force majeure, Nscale's prospectus and Morningstar's "$750 billion" capex call. This edition covers Friday through Sunday. The story moved from *one troubled project* to *whether the whole bill earns its return*.

- **The aggregate anchor moved up again, now on five-year totals.** Last issue: Morningstar's "around $750 billion" for 2026 and "materially above $1 trillion" for 2027. This cycle: Goldman at "$1.2 [trillion]" of global capex for 2027 and a five-year total of "$10 to $12 trillion" after a "$2.5 to $3 trillion" increase ([RiskReversal Pod, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh2Hfyv50O3RCtzmOOCp4ETE-2BkcGes3nGdTxLFf7dKEY5LpFD6vnZ-2Fq83uEvva2lIHR0-2BxPf0bYboPf6lmopQWKsidSI8aRbXZYAZ7gWe5eUw-3D-3DNMSo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GqH1dtzrA2U3xKKMORslPL1MUtn58Ka-2BT9bCJvt6pko1TsAFjXsYlnxtAO78LpbZVay1UmxqcS-2B6XqiTsMrxyF7PX1g0YCzqwwuEQAAoOme12ptIM1LjDMxz-2FmTd6zFcuw-3D-3D); [Squawk on the Street, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6AWMuIREi3a98WSp09rLbB7BHjriCdIZRqHpSYcJ4h2Nu-2B0-2Be8pa01wrt4OBd9xmRj3OVMOC04bdXqarJSywFXB5m2u1sAWCZWp6ZOAtQRg-3D-3DCaFm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GpDZepFsREL0F-2BSHg-2BSqZ8RWQs1cDIed446PvwNHJuoaZflj-2FFdGOHD0a1a4lnBqpfrv5Z8T3Ywzt6HzJrALlGmOCk3UZ3-2FMJYcyd4m4sgXUMSy0d4W4miJ7rkoWq3fhCQ-3D-3D)). Futurum's 2030 cumulative estimate is "over 14 trillion." The $700B+/$1T markers this letter tracks are now the floor of the Street's range, not the top.

- **Jupiter: from the notice to the damage.** Last issue had the force majeure and loans "below $0.90." This cycle: Blue Owl told lenders "you will get your money back." Oracle keeps the rent risk, its CDS is wider, and whether it keeps investment grade is being openly discussed at "BBB minus." No new force majeure notices elsewhere.

- **Meta's 2027 number: the range got wider.** Last issue relayed Bloomberg Intelligence's expected "60, 70%" raise (roughly $225–240B by my arithmetic). This cycle The Intrinsic Value Podcast puts consensus at "close to $200 billion," with a $230B bear case and near-zero free cash flow through 2028 ([The Intrinsic Value Podcast, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhaSsyz53vT8WJt0qOXskeg4JhaUczV0NEB2Y2EIJqmd1AzvTkEk4KOprRE6o-2BTzlxNdPgOXnvj7L8g-2BeV-2BES6-2B0yp76JwadefKd0FyZGlJgQ-3D-3D58DJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVR4QT3W-2BpeKVk3iNZB9iKCK-2FLSmCGJkepr77NAgge9GnB8F4y7kJ6FRDjFOw34hvM6HzHmJ4HpXlaWcL5dgZmlldsRyJACiFLIhFEt5Um15GlwYDBtVlPibPhSRKZpCL0xhi-2BOTxsGAw6gP9LzjTP90lOVdR-2BqA-2FtnA-2FS5uJoH-2Bw-3D-3D)). Call the range $200–240B heading into Q3.

- **Depreciation debate: back, with both sides stated clearly.** Last issue said it was quiet. This cycle Huang argues for longer chip lives ("like an airplane"), and Zitron argues much of the hardware hasn't even started depreciating because it isn't installed.

- **Memory: from bullish projections to a real slowdown in price increases.** Last issue had GW's projection of Micron gross margins going "80%" to "86%." This cycle, TrendForce's Q3 DRAM price increase slowed to "13 to 18 percent" from "50 to 60," and the print is now two days away.

- **AMD: finally some signal.** Quiet for several issues. Now there's a valuation debate (40x vs. 15x for Nvidia) and a Helios execution-risk flag.

- **The IPO window: the Anthropic timeline slipped again, and the valuation is under scrutiny.** Last issue: bankers planning a clean November listing. This cycle: the filing "still hasn't appeared," OpenAI is pushed to next year, and the reported $2 trillion valuation is being stress-tested.

- **Open items from last issue with no follow-up this cycle:** Nscale IPO pricing; Google's Suncatcher launches; OpenAI's launch event (one podcast title references "DevDay" as upcoming).

- **Still quiet:** nuclear PPAs (VST, CEG, TLN), ERCOT/SB6, optics specialists.

**Next catalysts to watch:** **Micron earnings, Wed Sept 30** (the gross-margin guide; mind the 14-week comparison). **OpenAI DevDay** (upcoming; date not given on the podcasts). **Anthropic's public filing.** **Any rating action on Oracle.** **The 10-year versus 5%.** Then late-October hyperscaler earnings and **Meta's first 2027 capex figure**.

---

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