# Treasury Yields Hit 2007 Highs but the Dollar Barely Moved - The Dollar Brief - Week of September 29, 2026

> The Dollar Brief for the week of September 29, 2026 (podcasts published September 22 to 28): the 10-year Treasury touched 5.27%, its highest since June 2007, yet the dollar went sideways as Saxo's John Hardy argued markets have run out of Fed hikes to price, while Tokyo pushed the yen back below 157, gold broke down, the US-China tariff deal came in small and RenMac's Neil Dutta said rates must go much higher.

## The Dollar Brief

### Week of September 29, 2026: Treasury Yields Hit 2007 Highs but the Dollar Barely Moved

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On Monday the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.27%, its highest since June 2007. Oil jumped. Stocks slipped. By the usual rules, the dollar should have jumped too.

It didn't. "The dollar is kind of flat," Saxo's John Hardy said on Monday's [Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3VpkiOZuyt7fMRO3dWkDt5rslqcgquuATpt50AG6soy-2Bnji6IQ5HqNR1EwDQv70E-2Fvk2WowC-2FOhD3LN4km8iA6uUMe8-2BG8npCOtLGRtHb9A-3D-3DyqUs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhlsc5EgK9zxCw1AJB0GXdw9jLUrNUixs1R3I2acE8UuRwctsfO4X9Yoxq8RIv3nEOoqzsUXlIYAdiFD6qfv1DC8ZvfR2a8eSR5QLvHyaInuFhfbBz7p7DTB81mNlEdkVRA-3D-3D). It "doesn't feel like it's gaining further momentum." Against the yen it actually fell, after Tokyo's top currency official warned traders again.

That's the question for this issue. *If a 20-year high in yields can't push the dollar higher, what will?* Hardy's answer is that the market may have run out of Fed hikes to add. Monday's other podcasts gave the rest of the picture: gold breaking down, a weaker Swiss franc, a thin US–China tariff deal, and a midterm campaign now run on 7% mortgages.

*(A quick glossary. A "yield" is the interest rate on a bond; it rises when the bond's price falls. A "basis point" is one-hundredth of a percentage point. "Dollar-yen" is how many yen one dollar buys, so a falling number means a stronger yen. "Carry" is the extra interest you earn by holding a higher-yielding currency. "Intervention" is when a government buys or sells currency to move the exchange rate. The "front end" means short-term bonds, which move most with expected Fed decisions.)*

## TL;DR

- **The 10-year hit 5.27%, its highest since June 2007.** The 30-year hit its highest since 2004 ([Power Lunch](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiY-2BsZ4965Xp2mrDHHmMreORsHOazyliDQi4Z1lU3j4DAU-2B68cp-2BsfnlzgRkNtwr4vix0yQFzPs0P7OQNUTCHSg5QZUs8Yc5pmQ2wt-2FsxKf7Q-3D-3Dkrtu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhvKEFtroauP5QJuRrWLuzRXADltrMJBK1DSRYbZhkOE9qkmHMqgFRCuqjLPE0scc4E6tJm1RqWjGT3tOT-2BODKksgCMhV-2B7yy5cL0Wgd8dFoahUsFbh-2BOqqK3V-2F-2BQ86Nc-2Fw-3D-3D); [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOit-2F0yYukfYakFyw5KuncJ5mAPPBB6h0F7-2FrOeflr1NeSFcKG9u78gHKOAgYYSDHXMxZPF-2B29IWUPL4klUzr-2FstngPOGOOmZ0rbtVg9jXYLdw-3D-3D3S7I_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhtt6snE4m0T7z0BDYU3NDPmIhK4k7XmnA0AJLTlmSdxqh9zZ6cSUCe4x1nt4mQjSR3J4P01UgL-2Fi-2BNtGkW9Yy-2BYAHn7JCbVoKPeWfHkPdcNGG2YTfWcjr9xdnkZoY8CUAw-3D-3D), Sep 28). NAB's count: the 10-year is up 86 basis points in three months.
- **The dollar barely moved.** Hardy: "your dollar is basically sideways." His explanation is that it's hard for markets to price more Fed tightening "beyond the sort of three-ish hikes that are priced in already" by June 2027 ([Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3VpkiOZuyt7fMRO3dWkDt5rslqcgquuATpt50AG6soy-2Bnji6IQ5HqNR1EwDQv70E-2Fvk2WowC-2FOhD3LN4km8iA6uUMe8-2BG8npCOtLGRtHb9A-3D-3D2Gpc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhnxR7T6HrX3bLlebM8OcA6lhAUQPWM7-2F2FKBBXdrQRyz3HAsGSyUkBMN7rfMFRJfyhn4H-2BSPB3ygdLGhIM38iwdWiVgx5eI3oMelSd5vRwF0aXlurZr3g9MfkPZfQ5UENA-3D-3D), Sep 28).
- **The yen firmed again below 157 after another warning.** Japan's chief currency official, Atsushi Mimura, urged markets to "heed clear Japanese yen warnings." Hardy: "whether it was actual intervention or whether it was simply this Mimura quote… maybe doesn't really matter."
- **Gold broke down.** Spot gold fell 3.5% and silver 5% on the day ([NAB Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhi0Bq5GUR900qkHfcjhtMvf3HBvX5x1cDkL7eFJkCyaoJ3j5b0s9zLKZcdOFC4GDO7aRW14YuvB9Y6nzY-2F0-2BtjgSEGsNOjlfZ0r-2B1wY35g4w-3D-3D0IVS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhq0O1gPbBNwzxIOBzwznkkqZwToEs2mEvh-2Bgm56aGSXtWg7dtwSrbJWulJ3iFfJNv8NU7TmrjNQnJQjrBQgV43ySuTvREu14Gd8IPimWCMAcx4oZWhL9LUYG2yOWA6NfgA-3D-3D), Sep 28). Hardy sees "a full retreat back into the 4,000 support."
- **RenMac's Neil Dutta: the Fed will need "much higher interest rates than investors currently anticipate."** AI spending is keeping stocks up, so the Fed has to hit that part of the economy to tighten conditions ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOit-2F0yYukfYakFyw5KuncJ5mAPPBB6h0F7-2FrOeflr1NeSFcKG9u78gHKOAgYYSDHXMxZPF-2B29IWUPL4klUzr-2FstngPOGOOmZ0rbtVg9jXYLdw-3D-3Dfk3d_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhksPkJHVB7CM4qfA6B7g1J0TJ-2BlnWSU1QjMWm82W6LNUX1kg6W10-2B96gDRKTEqjMfA-2FFFDx-2FsiXZ3Z8LPnDyyjE1ThBf0Yd4ci3sth-2B7OOG8UYR4XeJP6z8VUcrrezOh-2BA-3D-3D)).
- **The US–China deal was small.** Tariff cuts cover about $30 billion of imports each way, which Bloomberg's Steven Engel called "a fraction of the $415 billion" in goods the two traded last year ([Bloomberg Daybreak](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiWmgRYM3b50OCaCkgO0b-2Fnp45ZN5kCgOc00UA9VFxQiWWvaWqIC5Wu35qPt3yC8urRjYqf7c-2BNtzGnQ9-2BzBtQ91-2FBjosXKguSUXhCP8O2uEA-3D-3DEnUx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhtjRjz6gJbZo7qKmfVz2uDzztG1fgn72WmygXVNo2q7SsKoH-2FRVsv51bDgXVFgwcYXz0I-2BReJMKQsWFaqujEZ5mtKeO7LBVnhqSN4zzpNUlFtmDylKzBPm4-2BMCzqo7gQOw-3D-3D), Sep 28).
- **The long-run dollar bears showed up.** Jay Pelosky sees the US entering "a haircutting regime" in which the "dollar weakens, and the rest of the world outperforms" ([Macro Hive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiDhZyK-2FBZ-2FWBDY1FZdH-2FoW2XbagQxz3afGUAM2q7Z4ENWfSXxrWENpp-2BS6DDZoHaQ-2Bvfroe9RRo2rGOSgUUsfVGPfpJoyEZTaagcV3lHKL0w-3D-3DoLj__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhi5C4zzGxdcKwhLqKaEyjQabelvdFUvu-2BA4RfKANbMAcyEmMNrKBWdCti55kgCd0jmnqZEnt854QVL0sUgZYWceyhvYczIf46hDnb5681mzaGMdD7FGUnXRXuiVebsLeXQ-3D-3D), Sep 25). Rhodium's Logan Wright pushed back from the other side, arguing China's currency is no threat to the dollar ([Hidden Forces](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOja3Hf-2Brf1ZS5fKJ-2BVRp8R-2FUjui8F8vnPNomj9UL5-2FOQVMng32tu8YdbKWCacOXkD8bfadxEKH0eqQzAMfZ-2FISfNA9GnDiMobLw8vs2oLIRnA-3D-3DNl-K_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhkETHNvuKo7L2-2BvsLKKsTvq7nZgwLsND-2FIZWBPe3jxIjHi2QfSTBeUxkI77OLfOxn18TSmXFQcWlJ5xjdN2lU5aTMZf4G1adNWhjZLBpkF0s-2FyTMrIvauZHjCghei-2FPn1g-3D-3D), Sep 28).

## What's new

### Monday: yields up, dollar flat

Start with the numbers.

- **10-year:** reached 5.27% during Monday's session, "its highest level since June of 07. Almost took out the 07 highs," CNBC said on [Power Lunch](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiY-2BsZ4965Xp2mrDHHmMreORsHOazyliDQi4Z1lU3j4DAU-2B68cp-2BsfnlzgRkNtwr4vix0yQFzPs0P7OQNUTCHSg5QZUs8Yc5pmQ2wt-2FsxKf7Q-3D-3Da1Y__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhsTo8Vmauyx09aYYa-2Fhk6tkZw9oU0XpoHMjt0-2F4RjE-2FNtnwwCZ0Em5L1SuV9yM1lX9BpD7AvE7XVf4rH-2Fs-2FZX-2BeRS3DJ7JAfesNEFdOgNCSgjwWjm4gFFJr75b-2BhoMqElQ-3D-3D). By the close, NAB's Phil Dobbie had it "up 8 basis points… to 5.24%" ([NAB Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhi0Bq5GUR900qkHfcjhtMvf3HBvX5x1cDkL7eFJkCyaoJ3j5b0s9zLKZcdOFC4GDO7aRW14YuvB9Y6nzY-2F0-2BtjgSEGsNOjlfZ0r-2B1wY35g4w-3D-3DtXgH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhqu-2B4NGmprZ-2FqAWgcJrRL5lkVCsyu0MMtgnb-2FpzcSCyr0Jbxh-2BZfMWhS2oeTux9gFJ0tv1KqglpKtG7RtCM2vikPJTXb8H5XWRS43FOET3dFgijwLDSgWkz7XzU5-2Ft7lTw-3D-3D)).
- **30-year:** "the highest since 2004," per CNBC's Sarah Eisen on [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOit-2F0yYukfYakFyw5KuncJ5mAPPBB6h0F7-2FrOeflr1NeSFcKG9u78gHKOAgYYSDHXMxZPF-2B29IWUPL4klUzr-2FstngPOGOOmZ0rbtVg9jXYLdw-3D-3D8tGx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhjE2CLqJIh6WLTXZiyRVmses7sHUa83fqsrBp7Bpu3geJb5AWvbHWR-2F8qCgUol8zmtjr-2BCgVkeBABkdtiO5zY3efNZXG58l8KKAhLo1OIVYFfUorm-2Fw1uCZzyjnb85KCbQ-3D-3D).
- **Oil:** Brent was up nearly 4% at $108.21 a barrel in early trading, after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ([Bloomberg Daybreak](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiWmgRYM3b50OCaCkgO0b-2Fnp45ZN5kCgOc00UA9VFxQiWWvaWqIC5Wu35qPt3yC8urRjYqf7c-2BNtzGnQ9-2BzBtQ91-2FBjosXKguSUXhCP8O2uEA-3D-3DcWoi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhgwM37G8QAq-2F5mQM5veE5JvAa-2BevK2yoMg-2BUcMflsA-2F1oqihbUO9jmu7a0sqrSSmbLYT-2B8-2BRxxacMOnP-2BDQ9ZkZccnBQRLvpG2Hzan2m0EM5jIqLZXq8gQj0G1GaxemYiQ-3D-3D)).
- **The dollar:** "slightly stronger, up almost 0.2%," with the Australian dollar "stuck at 70.2 US cents." The one real currency move was "a 0.4% fall in the Swiss franc" (NAB).

It isn't only America. NAB's Sally Auld put the three-month moves side by side: US 10-year yields "up 86 basis points. In the UK, they're up 70," and Australia's are up 67. Hardy added that Japan's short-term yields are "picking up quite aggressively to new modern highs since the 1990s," and that the gap between French and German yields is "still around 110 basis points, a huge concern there."

That's a big reason the dollar isn't benefiting. It usually rises when US rates climb *faster* than everyone else's. Right now they're climbing together.

**Why the dollar stalled.** Hardy's read is about the front end. Markets already expect about three more Fed hikes by June next year. "It's really hard to sort of aggressively continue at the front end of the U.S. yield curve to price more Fed tightening beyond" that. If the Fed can't be priced any more hawkishly, the dollar loses its fuel, even as long-term yields keep rising. *(Hardy is a longtime Saxo strategist. This is a practitioner's read of market pricing, not a forecast of Fed policy.)*

**One sign of strain.** Hardy also flagged "a little bit more funding stress in the system." High-yield corporate bond spreads, the extra interest on junk debt over Treasuries, had widened "three days in a row," another 12 basis points to 294. He called it "still pretty modest stuff by historical standards," against 335 at the start of the Iran conflict in March and about 450 during the Liberation Day tariff sell-off. AI borrowers add to the pressure. He pointed to SoftBank's record $11 billion junk bond and to Blue Owl bonds due 2032 trading "around 6.8%" against a five-year Treasury near 5%. They're "starting to issue increasingly in other currencies, which means you're crowding out the… funding for other things, most notably, of course, sovereign debt itself."

### The yen: another warning, another reversal

Yesterday's issue said Tokyo was getting ready to act near 160. It didn't wait that long.

Hardy described the sequence live. Dollar-yen first rose "way up into the high 157s" as yields jumped. Then Japan's chief currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said traders should heed "clear Japanese yen warnings," and dollar-yen fell back "solidly below 157." Hardy called rising yields "a tough headwind for the Japanese yen," even with Friday's reports of Trump "weighing in on the currency."

**Why it matters.** Japanese officials are now pushing back well before 160. That caps the dollar's gains against one of the biggest currencies in the index, and it's part of why the dollar stayed flat on Monday.

For context, a Daiwa Asset Management strategist explained on the [IBKR Podcasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvdmfJTPCLS9pLBdRghm6bmO-2B-2Bx1X5lBEg4oXV-2FmRaqr-2FgJTBmsby7YjlmK61chORNXcn6UAYUstxChY9czHWxiR4rvFIIbHpvmkFbAdk-2BMw-3D-3Dqco2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhpL8GEbornGD85vy-2B5oOKjD1n7V4ea2tvZyrFPvTrgsngGpEZz5H63a1cUG4tEz-2BLQrq01rKiFoNYRKuAgjJ8WN737DF2subbcqZesmgE54xyDKaIspF-2Bg52tg6nPDTlAg-3D-3D) (published Sep 22) why earlier joint action worked. When Japan intervenes alone, "they essentially need to sell US treasuries to raise cash." In the recent round, the US bought yen "and the US has sold euros in order to do so," so Japan could support its currency "and the US doesn't have a huge rise in US treasury yields." Speculators had been "record short the Japanese yen" in futures, and the size of that move, from "163 up until around 157," "scared off a lot of hedge funds." *(The yen levels in that episode are from before its publish date. The mechanism is the useful part.)*

### Gold breaks, the franc slips

Gold had its worst day in a while. NAB: "3.5% off spot gold, silver is down 5% today." Hardy watched it happen: "breaking down below the 42, what was it, 30-ish area in a spot gold in dollar terms and even well below 4,200." He sees "a full retreat back into the 4,000 support," then chart levels around 3,858, 3,500 and 3,137. For silver, "$55 area looks quite important."

He gave two reasons. The first is higher yields, since gold pays no interest. The second is timing: China's Golden Week holiday starts Thursday and markets there close "for an entire week," so "that demand may not be there."

On last Friday's [RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjUqJcVogh6v3G4gmXG-2BeJBC2IRBsx68X4ucmsW3R8yyNcsK5BZ7iqOEEJpx3jpLPwceQNll128QaJdCDXFdpKaG3wWT6v-2FENksLBUNQ9ukLQ-3D-3DDBIU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEht7JorVKkPcZJzQmmsrTACt5LNmbznYDn6CTgcJFJ5xi96yPsJStUU16fjBMyYSZpuKADvgqQtkVNDOuTlIGxsjLkD9N2vjphXoBvEV8wGkElvmewaqN6m47NuxsJAMKmA-3D-3D) (published Sep 28), SoFi's Liz Thomas gave a view on central banks that runs against the usual story. Central banks' buying drove gold's run earlier this year, she said. But "central banks had to start selling gold in order to raise cash because of these higher oil prices. They needed liquidity in order to protect their own economies." She expects gold to recover later, "because of fear of instability around the globe, not because central banks come in and start buying hand over fist again." *(This conflicts with the record second-quarter central bank buying cited in last week's issues. Thomas didn't give figures for the selling.)*

**The Swiss franc.** Hardy called the Swiss National Bank's meeting last week "so dovish relative to the backdrop," with rates still at 0%. That, plus gold's slide ("one of the key holdings of the central bank"), sent dollar-Swiss "at new local highs," around 0.83.

He then made a point about carry that's worth remembering. Since early 2003, dollar-Swiss has fallen from about 1.50 to 0.83. That looks like a big win for holding francs. But once you count the extra interest you'd have earned on dollars, "instead of being up 50% or so, you would be up on the order of 6.4%." The same logic runs the other way for the Turkish lira. The dollar has gone from about 43 lira to 49 this year, but a lira deposit "would actually be up 11% because of the massive carry differential." Exchange rates alone tell only part of the story.

### The Fed: Dutta says markets are still too low

Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, made the most hawkish case of the day on CNBC's [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOit-2F0yYukfYakFyw5KuncJ5mAPPBB6h0F7-2FrOeflr1NeSFcKG9u78gHKOAgYYSDHXMxZPF-2B29IWUPL4klUzr-2FstngPOGOOmZ0rbtVg9jXYLdw-3D-3Dr4EP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhi9YHJO5-2FWYIXiYawnaef07U1GdeM73dGlNZ-2Fgq40KtN195f8QZE0TTqKhU2Oapjx4m8mzNE5pY1W7Opzu91P7eBmhT5WZVw3gskIsE5w7rnqUDxZLx4SxSNEGwFi4fxrA-3D-3D).

Higher rates are already hurting the usual places. In housing, "pending sales are going down, cancellations are going up." But those sectors "are already broken," so hurting them more does little. What's driving growth is "information processing equipment," meaning AI hardware, and that is also what's holding up stocks. So if the Fed wants tighter financial conditions, "breaking the equity market ultimately means having to break this part of the economy. And so that's going to probably require much higher interest rates than investors currently anticipate."

Asked whether deficits are behind rising yields, Dutta said no: "interest rates are going up because monetary policy is tightening and global growth is resilient and monetary policy is tightening everywhere. So longer term interest rates are essentially expectations of future short term interest rates."

*(This matches BofA's Megan Swiber in Monday's issue, who said the Fed hikes until stocks send a signal. Note the tension with Hardy: Dutta thinks the market is under-pricing hikes, while Hardy thinks it has priced about as many as it can. If Dutta is right, the dollar has more fuel than Hardy thinks.)*

**The other side.** On [Soar Financially](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj7HGmnRuWl0ccmSLhxjyy5AIzllnQU1VGtQidPGBIoZHsW2m-2BeRLD-2FIXm-2Bi3NTK0yJriCDC4CQ9ykeAp0B3niP7kLS-2FbPePekkLyNY72Wyxg-3D-3DREn1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhnKt4Z8MPlEWsqwcbjrIHUE4QwpTrc22tEpkh8Fw2PtSW23CY-2BZS8J-2BXKd5Kj3-2BsKoLbXuaeqvce2ttHM7Zr23fspdyB28t5MatCqN5WQEXGKtxsOojYm7Upk7zMNXqb9A-3D-3D) (published Sep 28, recorded a few days after the September 16 hike), Ed Dowd of Phinance Technologies called the hike a policy error, because the inflation comes from an oil shock rate hikes can't fix. His line: "the higher the yields go, the quicker the yields will go lower… the solution to higher yields is high yields themselves." He sees "lower yields over the next two years," with yield-curve control as a backstop, "like Japan did." On the dollar he was careful: it "is not going to lose reserve currency status, but there is going to be a new monetary system at some point." He calls for gold at "10,000 by 2030." *(Dowd is a former BlackRock portfolio manager who now runs a research firm and appeared on a gold-focused show. His timing is a call, not a forecast with a model behind it.)*

### Treasury's toolbox: Zervos, buybacks and the TGA

Yields keep rising despite Treasury Secretary Bessent's efforts, and Monday's podcasts doubted Treasury can do much more.

On [Power Lunch](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiY-2BsZ4965Xp2mrDHHmMreORsHOazyliDQi4Z1lU3j4DAU-2B68cp-2BsfnlzgRkNtwr4vix0yQFzPs0P7OQNUTCHSg5QZUs8Yc5pmQ2wt-2FsxKf7Q-3D-3DL53H_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhufBIx0hcGnfriJSU8qfc32roHTnt2Ydbs8hDr0DmoFX8oR1G2-2BOIaxJ32N6w2zoBK0p-2BHiyKcB4Ryv8Wbf6fQnQnoJg3LLzmZ8PIf00UWdpZe0EwMnEZkQEo1FD71coLw-3D-3D), CNBC discussed David Zervos's move to Treasury. One commentator on the show said Zervos's role is "to amplify and find more ways for the Treasury to do what it is doing, which is to try to talk down yields… to use bond buybacks." But "the bond market is vast, far vaster even than the… almost unlimited resources of the Treasury Department." Bessent himself has said "you can nudge toward equilibrium, but you can't… change what the equilibrium is."

Dowd called the recent Treasury buybacks "more jaw-boning than anything because it's a de minimis amount of money." SoFi's Thomas flagged another option: a Treasury "very uncomfortable with the level in yields and possibly going to start using the TGA in order to control the yield curve." *(The TGA is the Treasury General Account, the government's cash balance at the Fed. Running it down could fund the government without selling as many bonds.)*

On Monday's [Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh366FPZD-2BqzUf7SGu9Q5Hbsnw9EvmBB7JrQJAZQcYmeLVJoNaHl-2B3TtmfaUqH1jNSrFa6jGH0vRlOQ3vgGB5NczzoJjKh948MonnHBC8d9Sw-3D-3D2gV1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhifcD0k74jjUICqOp-2FKwHbyVab29Ygjy1J1WFk1NK1CIclpg1o2cJ3-2FnUhG86YSUcAEF4zDvHUyqdVtO4YP40fpnu7A4RA4jcYZaiFarJZ7dqVAIPLFKMFeAIFcmvgW4MQ-3D-3D), Raymond James' Ed Mills tied it to the election: "If you didn't have Treasury Secretary Besant trying to control the long end of the curve, and it's seemingly as if it's going against him, this wouldn't be as much of a political problem."

### US–China: a small deal and a January deadline

The details of last week's Trump–Xi summit came out Monday, and they were modest. The two sides "detailed a plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each nation" ([Bloomberg Daybreak](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiWmgRYM3b50OCaCkgO0b-2Fnp45ZN5kCgOc00UA9VFxQiWWvaWqIC5Wu35qPt3yC8urRjYqf7c-2BNtzGnQ9-2BzBtQ91-2FBjosXKguSUXhCP8O2uEA-3D-3DChIy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhoQCuFMrqjZkPCbHJg-2BbPNkj0sImlc3IodOGD9-2FSCPQ6sH-2BRRs-2BZu4LAEMAMIv-2FycRnMX2pdg-2F5avUjmlUyXGGaxmL654BJSjRlZAw13NsaFIZLZvxb5osmfhQYxlust9g-3D-3D)). Bloomberg's Steven Engel put it in proportion: $60 billion of relief is "a fraction of the $415 billion in total goods exchanged between the world's largest economies last year." Chips and national-security items are still unresolved.

Former ambassador to China Gary Locke, on [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOit-2F0yYukfYakFyw5KuncJ5mAPPBB6h0F7-2FrOeflr1NeSFcKG9u78gHKOAgYYSDHXMxZPF-2B29IWUPL4klUzr-2FstngPOGOOmZ0rbtVg9jXYLdw-3D-3D75bx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhhbStPACpzNSK8f6QutuC7ofLoEUyGZ5NZCMd9GriYHKI1DbsjKxJliMdhNWQyzNeXVeabU7rir4udC6-2BPNREZ-2F6gQ1XFOVu17quNYCY30-2BQrnkDBUbu9irEm7iIY14k3w-3D-3D), called it good news "if you're going to buy sporting goods and maybe some Christmas ornaments." The larger truce was extended through January.

**Why it matters for the dollar.** A small deal leaves the tariff question open until after the midterms. It doesn't change much for the yuan or trade flows right now.

### Is China a threat to the dollar? Logan Wright says no

On [Hidden Forces](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOja3Hf-2Brf1ZS5fKJ-2BVRp8R-2FUjui8F8vnPNomj9UL5-2FOQVMng32tu8YdbKWCacOXkD8bfadxEKH0eqQzAMfZ-2FISfNA9GnDiMobLw8vs2oLIRnA-3D-3DHPTn_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhkKElvuwNaSZp-2FwGMgguVaVmJbxMHCf1QlJjdlpuBX1XcgAyaXFMd8k7KguStwwtZ5VZ9OEsszPtkoJ2MWLDJIw-2BgUvoH8N-2FmNASIxLgntWELkU3g9qZKr6lWUGe7eJivQ-3D-3D) (Sep 28), host Demetri Kofinas interviewed Logan Wright, director of China macro and financial sector research at Rhodium Group and author of *Broken China*. Kofinas summarized the book's argument: China is "in structural decline, its currency is overvalued," and "capital flight will persist." He added that Wright believes "the renminbi is overvalued and poses no credible threat to the dollar's role internationally."

Wright's growth numbers explain why. In 2023, he said, real growth "was actually probably closer to 1.5%, 2% relative to what the 5.2% that they posted." The cyclical recovery "continued in 2024 and 2025, but has now rolled over." He also traced China's push to internationalize its currency back to 2008, when "China reveals that they're vulnerable to dollar financing constraints" as global trade credit dried up.

This fills in a point from Jeff Snider in Monday's issue. Snider said the yuan is rising "because China generates dollars commercially," through exports. Wright's view is compatible: a currency supported by trade surpluses isn't the same as one the world wants to hold as savings. *(Wright is a leading independent China analyst. His case is structural and long-term. It doesn't say where the yuan trades next month.)*

### The long-term dollar bears

Two guests argued the dollar's long-term trend is down.

**Jay Pelosky** (TPW Advisory), on [Macro Hive Conversations](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiDhZyK-2FBZ-2FWBDY1FZdH-2FoW2XbagQxz3afGUAM2q7Z4ENWfSXxrWENpp-2BS6DDZoHaQ-2Bvfroe9RRo2rGOSgUUsfVGPfpJoyEZTaagcV3lHKL0w-3D-3D8RiK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhq-2BR3qwsfXyEGgkkjOpUNt9lqu3ktQUPb2qWx-2B35hS8ewx6aIsKZpU-2FpZNSjRbgHFj9KCi9jTbrjMEey04QxYWPQpSn-2BTRu-2FCRYXsiwROIErI4KJLLUCanp68iTCz1mw0A-3D-3D) (Sep 25), said "all the money in the world over the last five years has flowed into the United States." Now he expects "a haircutting regime": "premium equity valuation comes down, cost of financing goes up, as we've seen with the treasury market, dollar weakens, and the rest of the world outperforms." He expects emerging-market stocks, already outperforming for 18 months, to keep doing so for "two to five years." He also expects the world to move "from trade wars to capital wars," with Europe keeping money "at home" instead of "spending… hundreds of billions of dollars to the U.S." He likes Brazil: even with "200 to 300 basis points of rate cuts… the surprise could be that the currency appreciates."

**Simon Dixon**, a Bitcoin investor, on [Coin Stories](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhpnaxL6X4mTNCrT13Dce8P3zWprK-2FVT6ZHlcpv2LpMo48bF5LRZpQDnfnHrDE9fRzInMDUwKTWz9S5hx6c-2BmTEvwJjruAEHiCnDr4JpZEdLQ-3D-3DfaDz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhrCFWugPRj63wxvNhgjbevTWuni-2FeMYo0H-2Bo13wuJ3I95cwHk7XEw-2BzBh-2FyHZQfeylStGbD3cqA1oZ5E8Q-2FEZfoqpuXCOrS4qAtvhIvhqlIzxyrL6ECvQuPNomJh8dRySA-3D-3D) (Sep 28), described central banks "easing out in an orderly transition" from Treasuries, with "gold… the largest reserve asset on central banks balance sheet by value." In his telling, tools like "FX swap lines" are "ways of making up for" that lost foreign demand. *(Dixon's venue is Bitcoin-focused and his framing is advocacy. The gold-reserve ranking is his claim.)*

### Midterms: five weeks out

The election is getting closer and becoming more of a market story.

- **Oil and Iran.** NAB's Dobbie cited a Bloomberg report that "Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end the hostilities and reopen the strait before the US midterms in November." Auld: "Trump said… nothing's going to really happen before the midterms."
- **Escalation risk on both sides of the vote.** Raymond James' Mills sees risk that Iran escalates "going into the midterm elections because they want to put pressure on President Trump," and "a risk after the election that President Trump escalates this" once the political pressure is gone ([Morning Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh366FPZD-2BqzUf7SGu9Q5Hbsnw9EvmBB7JrQJAZQcYmeLVJoNaHl-2B3TtmfaUqH1jNSrFa6jGH0vRlOQ3vgGB5NczzoJjKh948MonnHBC8d9Sw-3D-3D3k-J_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhkkp-2BmrFvWPKWoDgyCIwHJXNPEes1tSyES-2BmfozokIO-2BRfmrRm49MkCFr6F-2BbwvmbtxZmZ-2Bv3BGYi3MNdyc1PvL9ICkez6JVA2LMYrAOeTfDuF1yYqmZyyOVcT50xpxxtQ-3D-3D)).
- **Rates as a campaign issue.** Mills again: "when borrowers are out there trying to get a mortgage and it's north of 7%… When we have the Fed already hiking rates before the midterm elections, when President Trump was very clear he wanted a rate cut, those create political problems for Republicans."
- **Market pattern.** SoFi's Thomas expects "volatility, probably a drawdown into the midterm elections" and "a relief on the other side." She noted growing talk of "a democratic sweep of Congress," which would mean "a very split government," and "markets tend to like that too." She is "hearing rumors about a trucking strike that could happen in October because of inflation and diesel prices." One Morning Call panelist added that "October in a midterm year is the best month of the year," with November second.

## The debate

**Why didn't the dollar rally with yields?**

- **The Fed is priced out.** Hardy: the market already expects "three-ish hikes" by June and can't easily add more. Yields are also rising everywhere, as NAB's comparison shows, so the US rate advantage isn't growing.
- **The Fed isn't priced out.** Dutta says the Fed will need "much higher interest rates than investors currently anticipate." If he's right, repricing short-term rates would give the dollar another leg up.
- **Where it lands.** This week's data settles it. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and Friday's jobs report (October 2) will show whether markets can add a fourth hike. Hardy warned that strong numbers could send yields higher and "actually be negative for the stock market."

**Is gold's slide a buying chance or a regime change?**

- **Temporary.** Thomas is still adding to gold for "fear of instability." Dowd calls for $10,000 by 2030. Hardy blames part of the drop on China's Golden Week absence.
- **Structural.** Thomas herself says central banks have become sellers to raise cash. Hardy's chart levels go down to 3,500 and 3,137. Gold pays no interest, and 5% Treasuries are real competition.

**Is the dollar's long-term decline under way?**

- **Yes.** Pelosky's "haircutting regime" and "capital wars." Dixon's orderly exit from Treasuries.
- **No, at least not toward China.** Wright says the renminbi "poses no credible threat to the dollar's role." Dowd, a gold bull, still says the dollar "is not going to lose reserve currency status."

## The trades in play

- **Long 10-year Treasuries near 5%.** Thomas bought "around five" in her personal account and "might buy some more" ([RiskReversal Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjUqJcVogh6v3G4gmXG-2BeJBC2IRBsx68X4ucmsW3R8yyNcsK5BZ7iqOEEJpx3jpLPwceQNll128QaJdCDXFdpKaG3wWT6v-2FENksLBUNQ9ukLQ-3D-3D_qpB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhkteJkcm8gAtLihyCvPVUGrviPS1HtscaBuZQH-2B7icMZ7pf2D3941z6eZTZzF5Gw1izO33SEszNeXMjjKTSaN9NbEgTev9k1AMtuIzWQ-2Fld-2FVPv6X4s7FKcdQf397-2FvbhA-3D-3D)). Dowd sees lower yields over two years ([Soar Financially](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj7HGmnRuWl0ccmSLhxjyy5AIzllnQU1VGtQidPGBIoZHsW2m-2BeRLD-2FIXm-2Bi3NTK0yJriCDC4CQ9ykeAp0B3niP7kLS-2FbPePekkLyNY72Wyxg-3D-3DqBrz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhr6qh74HeB4FqzmsykIk2dRpteGdG50IPkyyOU3Yzy2C2-2BiW-2BzG-2Bpy3WZ1CCGiadhqOxiq5VDked5FGHVtOZ1B4HEpCUV-2FyP-2FSpteHkzCSnicbpgQpaxmKPgmOHa4Q7c7A-3D-3D)).
- **"Balance by extremes."** Thomas is "all in" on software, semiconductors, cybersecurity and AI on one side, with 10-year Treasuries, gold and commodities on the other, and "not a lot in the middle."
- **Long healthcare into the midterms.** Thomas: "I would still be long healthcare here into the midterms."
- **Gold: watch 4,000.** Hardy sees a retreat to "the 4,000 support," with 3,858, 3,500 and 3,137 below it; $55 for silver ([Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3VpkiOZuyt7fMRO3dWkDt5rslqcgquuATpt50AG6soy-2Bnji6IQ5HqNR1EwDQv70E-2Fvk2WowC-2FOhD3LN4km8iA6uUMe8-2BG8npCOtLGRtHb9A-3D-3DkkuR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhhzjC7QLzCs-2B5aF84MkfW6X4q1WT6JmJnJjo5-2F1jZjRErhhueez-2BIMB1PbGoLgSLwEmFs4K47t7e6x34h3ROv72pgMccx9lMQbtA8hIIgGWBjZSueZ-2FIguvEuW7GtNk2GQ-3D-3D)).
- **Short the dollar through emerging markets.** Pelosky likes Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Peru, and European banks and Spain ([Macro Hive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiDhZyK-2FBZ-2FWBDY1FZdH-2FoW2XbagQxz3afGUAM2q7Z4ENWfSXxrWENpp-2BS6DDZoHaQ-2Bvfroe9RRo2rGOSgUUsfVGPfpJoyEZTaagcV3lHKL0w-3D-3DnKgU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhnCy4vmSr0emOvjnlEpOkZ6YQV-2B5rK6We-2BKJLCeKDDA-2FBH4rgZs326hsSo81O9EUD6-2FZTaEUb-2FcAqUzFa15e1q6JKLomtSMpWGqQlwC6T2ewnl20rsg0OgxriXgJQ-2BV8-2FA-3D-3D)).
- **Sterling around Tuesday's speech.** Hardy flagged a speech at Tuesday's Labour Party conference as "potentially one for the ages." Broad tax rises would "play poorly" for gilts and sterling. Watch euro-sterling near "0.8610 or 20."

## Read-throughs

- **The Swiss franc is no longer a one-way safe haven.** A 0% SNB and falling gold pushed dollar-Swiss to new local highs. In a world of 5% dollar yields, low-yielders pay a carry cost, as Hardy's 6.4% versus 50% example shows.
- **Credit is the next thing to watch.** Junk spreads at 294 basis points are low but rising. AI borrowers paying around 6.8% compete with Treasuries for the same buyers.
- **Banks are feeling the flat curve.** Thomas said the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields hit "18 or 19 basis points" last week. Banks were down about 3% over five days. "Rate hikes have historically been good for banks, but a flatter yield curve is not."
- **Rate-sensitive stocks are losing money to bonds.** Strategas' Todd Sohn on Power Lunch: "There's absolutely capital competition," hitting "utility stocks, consumer staple stocks, REITs."
- **Oil still sets the tone.** CNBC's Jim Cramer said rates won't come down unless oil "falls back to $80" ([Squawk on the Street, 9AM](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiINUF6zgTbqcQ8UevPGlaoxf6aPXstX-2FeKNpFj1gAiKfrPr7I2wBad-2BSs0h-2FaiqxKeSvQOhuWK4E7cs78XIgNCJwJU7uM5y7oRk3zDaWOqMQ-3D-3DYXpC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXAn7115685JyYC4YCmncC0pcwXUsCI72Yscoy95dyEhvy1Dg6oriIOpulKFw4sIgW9Cv830YZlCzXobAATTfqsiyfxL8glVYMFWtwabji3f5dh7M3VgoMdrENhjw2OdB83GqSyCovhe9ehUsd0WEMBJdSTmrShy4aHaTgfvvu-2B4w-3D-3D)). Brent was above $105 at Monday's close.

## What changed since Monday's issue

- **The 10-year made a new high.** It reached 5.27% during the session, the highest since June 2007, against Friday's 5.16% close.
- **The dollar stopped following yields.** Monday brought higher yields and higher oil, but the dollar rose only about 0.2% and fell against the yen.
- **Tokyo spoke up below 160.** Mimura's warning pushed dollar-yen back below 157.
- **Gold broke lower.** It fell 3.5% in a day, below $4,200.
- **The US–China deal came out.** It covers about $30 billion each way, a small slice of $415 billion in trade.
- **Iran hopes faded.** Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal, and reports say Tehran doesn't expect a deal before the midterms.

---

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