Newsletter · 2026-09-29 · Ashutosh Agarwal

Cathie Wood Sold Nvidia to Buy Tesla and the Scoreboard Is Awkward - Track Record - October 2024 to September 2026

A historical scorecard of ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, who on October 4, 2024 called for 2,600 dollar Tesla by 2029 and said moving money out of Nvidia into Tesla would be a very good move, measured through the September 28, 2026 cutoff. Tesla rose 42.9% against the S&P 500's 33.6%, but Nvidia rose 83.2%. Verdict: Mixed, with the 2,600 dollar target Too Early and running behind schedule.

Track Record

Cathie Wood, October 2024 to September 2026

This is a historical review of a call made on October 4, 2024, with performance measured through the September 28, 2026 cutoff, just under two years. It was published on September 29, 2026; the prices and grades below are as of the September 28, 2026 cutoff.

ARK Invest's founder called for $2,600 Tesla and said moving money out of Nvidia would be "a very good move." Tesla beat the market. Nvidia beat Tesla by 40 points. Verdict: Mixed, with the big target still Too Early and running well behind schedule.

The Call

On Friday, October 4, 2024, Cathie Wood, founder, CEO and CIO of ARK Invest, went on Bloomberg Businessweek (released as the Bloomberg Talks podcast episode "Ark Investment Management CEO, CIO, & Founder Cathie Wood Talks OpenAI Investment & Future").

Tesla was the #1 holding in her flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). The host put ARK's published number to her: "You've got an estimate of twenty six hundred dollars a share for twenty twenty nine. What gets us there?"

With about 30 seconds left, she answered:

"Autonomous Mobility. Think 1010, October 10th here. That is going to focus analysts not just on EVs, but on the autonomous opportunity. Tesla is the largest AI project in the world. Talk about shifting resources from NVIDIA into Tesla. We think longer term that is going to prove to be a very good move."

That makes it two calls, both checkable:

• Ticker: TSLA (long). Nvidia (NVDA) is the stock she moved money out of.
• Target: $2,600 a share by 2029. Tesla closed at $250.08 that day, so she was calling for roughly a 10x.
• Thesis: Robotaxis, meaning self-driving cars that carry paying passengers with no driver. She thinks the robotaxi business will be worth far more than the car business.
• The relative bet: ARK had sold Nvidia out of its flagship fund, and she argued that moving money into Tesla would "prove to be a very good move."

She said the same thing that afternoon on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime with Morgan Brennan and Jon Fortt:

"Tesla's in the pole position... we're looking at winner take most in autonomous taxi platforms."

On that show she called robotaxis "a four to five trillion dollar revenue opportunity in the next five to 10 years." (Closing Bell, "Closing Bell Overtime: Ark's Cathie Wood on OpenAI Investment, Tesla Robotaxi; Jason Furman On Hot Jobs Report 10/4/24", 2024-10-04)

On the Nvidia sale she admitted she'd have liked to keep more. She said: "tactically, sure, we would have loved to still have it." But she wrote the sale off as looking backward: "we're all about the future." (Bloomberg Talks, 2024-10-04)

What Happened

All prices are daily closes from October 4, 2024 (call day) to Monday, September 28, 2026 (cutoff). Returns exclude dividends.

In plain English:

• Tesla beat the market. It's up 42.9% against the S&P 500's 33.6%, so owning it added about 9 points.
• The Nvidia swap has cost money so far. Nvidia gained almost twice as much as Tesla. A dollar left in Nvidia would be worth about $1.83 at the September 28, 2026 close; the same dollar moved into Tesla is worth about $1.43. Her "very good move" trails by 40 points.
• The $2,600 target is falling behind. To reach $2,600 by the end of 2029, Tesla needed to grow about 56% a year from the call date. On that pace it would have been near $606 at the cutoff. It closed at $357. Tesla now needs about 84% a year for the next 3.25 years, and would have to rise 7.3x from there.

The Ride in Between

This was a volatile two years:

• The first week went badly. The October 10, 2024 robotaxi event she flagged ("Think 1010") was followed by an 8.8% drop in one day, from $238.77 to $217.80. Two weeks after the call, Tesla hit $213.65, 15% below where she spoke.
• Then the election rally. Tesla ended 2024 at $403.84, up 61% from the call.
• Then a crash in early 2025. By April 8, 2025 it had fallen to $221.86, below where she made the call. Around then Europe sales fell 47% in February, and brand damage tied to Elon Musk's politics was a live issue.
• A new high, then a slide. Tesla peaked at $489.88 on December 16, 2025, almost double the call price. By the September 28, 2026 cutoff it had dropped 27% from that high.

There's a real point in her favor on the business itself. Tesla did launch a paid robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025, and podcasters are now discussing it as an ongoing business. One example is Dumb Money Live, "Tesla's Robotaxi Is Finally Real, Now What Happens to $TSLA?" (2026-09-04). The product she was betting on exists. The stock just hasn't priced it the way her model does.

The Verdict: Mixed

What she got right:

• Direction. She was bullish, and Tesla went up 42.9%.
• Beating the market. Tesla beat the S&P 500 by about 9 points. That's not a blowout, but it counts.
• The robotaxi business. She said robotaxis would be the thing to watch, and within 9 months Tesla had one running on public roads.
• Her trading. In December 2025 she said ARK "took some profits from Tesla, which is nearer to its high." Tesla peaked on December 16 and was down 27% from there at the cutoff. (The Paul Barron Crypto Show, "Cathie Wood Swaps Tesla For Ethereum", 2025-12-15)

What she got wrong:

• The swap. She didn't just say "buy Tesla." She said moving money out of Nvidia and into Tesla would be "a very good move." Two years in, Nvidia is up 83% and Tesla 43%. On her own terms, that's a loss so far.
• The October 10 catalyst. The event she said would "focus analysts" on autonomy was followed by one of Tesla's worst days of that autumn.
• The pace. A $2,600 target doesn't have to be hit in a straight line. But Tesla is at 59% of the price it would need to be on pace, and the growth required from here has risen from 56% a year to about 84% a year. The longer this lasts, the less likely the 2029 date looks.

Being fair about timing: The target date is December 2029, more than three years past the cutoff, so we can't call the $2,600 target wrong yet. It's Too Early. But the other half of the call, the Nvidia rotation, had a clear two-year test and so far it has lost. Beat the market, lost the swap, target behind schedule: that adds up to Mixed.

Have They Changed Their Tune?

No. She has stuck with the $2,600 target in every podcast appearance we found since, including through Tesla's slide in 2026. The "since then" figures below run to the September 28, 2026 cutoff.

All-In (October 14, 2025), with Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks and David Friedberg. Asked about Elon Musk's pay package, she said: "So our price target is $2,600. I think it's at $330 today, something like that... And we have very little for humanoid in." Tesla actually closed at $435.90 the day before; her "$330" was wrong. She added that if Musk "delivers on humanoid robots the way he thinks he is, we don't have enough in there." (All-In, "Cathie Wood on How AI Can Double GDP, Bull Case for Bitcoin $1M, Elon's Trillion-Dollar Pay Package", 2025-10-14). Since then: TSLA -18.0% vs S&P +15.5%.

My First Million (October 30, 2025), with Shaan Puri. Shaan asked why ARK trades Tesla so often if it believes in a 10x. She said: "We are using the volatility to our advantage... it has gone from $100 to $500 and becomes 13, 14% of the portfolio. From a portfolio management point of view, we are effectively rebalancing." She added that the $2,600 target includes very little for humanoid robots and that ARK updates it "each spring. For public consumption." (My First Million, "I asked Cathie Wood the question no one else will", 2025-10-30)

Bloomberg Talks (January 22, 2026). Asked about Musk's Davos comments on humanoid robots, she doubled down: "Robo-taxis, we believe, will account for 90% of Tesla's valuation by the end of the decade. We're in print at $2,600. That includes nothing for Optimus robots." She called humanoid robots "a $26 trillion opportunity." (Bloomberg Talks, "Ark Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood Talks Tech, Tesla and Deregulation", 2026-01-22). Since then: TSLA -17.1% vs S&P +11.8%.

The Pomp Podcast (February 16, 2026), with Anthony Pompliano. She compared Tesla to its "manufacturing hell" years: "the history of long bases like this is they either break out or break down. And we very much think Tesla is getting ready to break out again." (The Pomp Podcast, "Will Deflation Hurt Bitcoin? | Cathie Wood", 2026-02-16). Since then: TSLA -14.4% vs S&P +12.4%. The breakout hadn't happened by the cutoff.

Merryn Talks Money (March 23, 2026), with Merryn Somerset Webb. Tesla was still "our largest position" because "that is the largest AI project on Earth." She said robotaxis move Tesla "from 16% gross margins in electric vehicles to... 80% to 90% gross margins," and predicted that by 2030 Tesla's robotaxi costs "will be 50% lower than Waymo's costs." (Merryn Talks Money, "The Convergence Trade: Cathie Wood's Boldest Predictions", 2026-03-23)

Squawk Pod (September 25, 2026), with Joe Kernen and Kelly Evans. On September 25, 2026 she confirmed "Tesla and SpaceX are our top two" holdings. (Squawk Pod, "A Trump-Xi Summit & Cathie Wood's Investor Letter 9/25/26", 2026-09-25)

The pattern: her conviction hasn't changed, but her price has. Each time she reaffirms $2,600, she's starting further from where the call began, and every reaffirmation since October 2025 has lagged the S&P 500 by 25 to 33 points so far. She has never gone back to the Nvidia trade on these podcasts except to say, "we'll see what happens to NVIDIA over that time."

Running Scorecard

Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)

The Track Record roster so far

The roster has an odd pattern: three of our six graded calls have involved Tesla. The two that paired Tesla against something else (Gerstner vs. Uber, Wood vs. Nvidia) both came out Mixed.

Next issue: Bill Ackman (Pershing Square).