# Blackstone B-Cred Redemption Requests Hit Double the Gate as BDC Consolidation Looms - The Private Credit Boom (and Cracks) - Week of September 30, 2026

> The Private Credit Boom (and Cracks) for the week of September 23 to 30, 2026. Podcast synthesis on Blackstone's B-Cred receiving redemption requests for 10% of shares against a 5% gate, Marlton's James Elbaor on a coming wave of BDC mergers at or above NAV and Blue Owl's OBDC II wind-down, Hayfin's €15bn European fund close, and Q1 report cards for BXSL, ARCC, CCAP, BBDC and BCSF.

## The Private Credit Boom (and Cracks)

### Week of September 30, 2026: Blackstone B-Cred Redemption Requests Hit Double the Gate as BDC Consolidation Looms

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## TL;DR

- **The line to get out is getting longer.** Investors asked to pull 10% of Blackstone's $82 billion B-Cred fund this quarter, twice the 5% the fund allows. One investor on two podcasts this week called it flatly: "The private credit boom is over." ([Other People's Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgrz1U3n7z8xrfk9wnhH-2BhpnMP4lEoIj1TFci4m7OeJIZe5Hljp1B2McEN5cXAyeegBl81o8hMYM7WLcVzoT0Hfi4R7HQed5uYNc98KeCVz8Q-3D-3DyGt0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDVDLM1hMK5faSE0dNsUHDbBMsmt9dqcVUq2W7eGqkcDW35a-2FVVWX-2BAZv7BrBF4cw8vAWng-2Fmy7JPoMi9rqrT68dG1oOHQoIuKvE1W3P5urUEuf6joL9FoPyY8Uw7mMnWvQ-3D-3D))
- **The next chapter is mergers, not new funds.** Expect BDCs to merge at or above their stated book value starting next year. Goldman is already bidding for a large CLO manager. Blue Owl is winding down a non-traded BDC rather than listing it. ([Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DssfR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDcCE1snwyGemxBNCzj-2FW0GKvzujyno6CzgqxGwgXkHnkkHG6-2BgeD-2FI9PG0wd778bQqk8viw5gpV8lrMK0i-2Bz9dD9n2FKe-2FpZ4nw-2FgeJVgQQ5jbektn7dY5unwDjuHwwhUQ-3D-3D))
- **Institutional money is still showing up, mostly in Europe.** Hayfin just closed a €15bn direct-lending fund. Its co-head says the watch list is normal and shrinking, and that US BDCs have pulled back hard from European deals. ([Cloud 9fin](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJld0r-2BBFjFePsou-2FtISi-2F-2FKJSpzn3a5lJcFa8CgfrHjH5NdIGj6Zv8tHiAuPD4X-2FHLinetll2Gv3us7gunlxYYNhyJ1bu-2FZbSc4h5h2nOTA-3D-3DFBVb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDRAT7UaiuOja0WvO9OvqXrw-2BKdLM7uML61AICg5clnfWHdUmSVQl9ECR1EtisQfV3S9tdu2I-2Bbq-2BUF7fuen033mRSJi7QQqIHH0KkPAZQW9evSv94LHI3pxqgav5n5K9KA-3D-3D))

## Quick Glossary

- **BDC (business development company):** a fund, often stock-market listed, that lends to mid-sized private companies and pays out most of its income as dividends.
- **NAV (net asset value):** what the fund says its loans are worth per share. When a listed BDC trades "at a discount to NAV," the market doesn't believe the number, or doesn't want to wait for it.
- **Non-accrual:** a loan where the lender has stopped counting interest as income because it doesn't expect to collect it. In plain terms, a problem loan.
- **Gate:** the cap on how much a non-traded fund lets investors withdraw each quarter. For B-Cred and most peers it is 5%.

## What's New

### 1. B-Cred's redemption queue doubled the gate, and its marks have fallen for a year straight

**Who said it:** James Elbaor, founder of Marlton LLC. Marlton invests in closed-end funds, listed private assets and asset managers. *Investor/market participant, not a private-credit lender.* He appeared on [Other People's Money with Max Wiethe](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgrz1U3n7z8xrfk9wnhH-2BhpnMP4lEoIj1TFci4m7OeJIZe5Hljp1B2McEN5cXAyeegBl81o8hMYM7WLcVzoT0Hfi4R7HQed5uYNc98KeCVz8Q-3D-3D7ihd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDZlj74UwBmQUmpCZ-2FgeObAGt56YFwstDfT3CPPeQFOMt4SgQ7FzjFUPrJA6WwT3HyeqR7AIc8yX29dAZzJmV1UW2-2F1Zt4vtxqo8Suc5qFAK3HvrzrrZedtaeNpgWI-2BeBAA-3D-3D) and [Monetary Matters with Jack Farley](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DIcgC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDQYwNjaL9xkjL6cMhw4SY-2BLg6ictOeCwX1AtjqnSHgssu3em5ht2vnW0dfTHaPH1S0LaUvjUBz9pzKlmw4mrRo0CQKbmEiSQA2z2eXg35hVBWq34arN1Lpe7eqJ5VtJe8w-3D-3D) on September 27. It was the same interview on both.

Elbaor calls B-Cred "the big bellwether." It is "an $82 billion private credit vehicle" that uses leverage. This quarter, "the gate is at 5%. They received requests for 10% of the shares outstanding." And the marks are drifting lower: B-Cred "has seen subsequent marks down over the last four quarters... an entire year of consistently quarterly markdowns to NAV."

His diagnosis is more interesting than the headline. He doesn't think the gate is broken: "Gating is doing what it was designed to do." The problem is the sales pitch: "the product was sold as if the gate did not exist." It's a classic bank-style mismatch. Investors were promised quarterly liquidity on loans that can't be sold quickly. "I wouldn't say that there's trouble in the market. There's just a line for those that want out."

**Why it matters:** B-Cred is Blackstone's (BX) biggest retail credit fund. A queue twice the gate means fewer net inflows, and those inflows drive fee growth for BX and every manager selling to wealthy individuals.

### 2. The consolidation playbook: wind-downs, mergers at or above NAV, and Goldman shopping

**Same source:** [Other People's Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgrz1U3n7z8xrfk9wnhH-2BhpnMP4lEoIj1TFci4m7OeJIZe5Hljp1B2McEN5cXAyeegBl81o8hMYM7WLcVzoT0Hfi4R7HQed5uYNc98KeCVz8Q-3D-3DAPc5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDSQ7Hvw1gw-2BpjOnI3Psx6u8-2F-2FFGhdPxrSzxGtlXeUtwFyx02HNRsrrCa1lvmhX6u5-2BSEZOKjy5SLls37rSXTRKa9fMRGHzJGoGAblihEXlWT5OgfYAs6oh78NaCI-2FseQjw-3D-3D) / [Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DgoIU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDaQAHsTaPIvJuJIEs3lakF-2FSQb0SCPyUEwfLm3PFJ4x6jwyE0AIE6Iac9yqaJxMlairOfWXgAcZB76W2-2BL3OP7J-2FmPzGjic-2FdLkey8S8mnD9Y5D-2BGfK5chewy-2FluW5XATw-3D-3D).

Elbaor's bluntest line: "The private credit boom is over... There's no new money, no new capital flowing into that strategy right now." The billionaire-founder era "is done." And: "This is not a growth story any longer."

He then laid out the exits managers actually have:

- **List the fund.** This worked in 2020–2024, when newly listed funds traded above NAV. Not anymore. Bluerock's BPRE "immediately traded to a 38% discount to NAV. That window is absolutely closed."
- **Wind it down.** "What Blue Owl just did with OBDC II... stopped offering quarterly liquidity and just said, we're going to completely wind down the portfolio and return cash as quickly as we can."
- **Merge.** "I fully expect to see a lot of merger activity within the BDC space and private credit space," starting next fiscal year. He expects BDCs to merge "on a NAV, possibly NAV plus" basis, and he has examples. Mount Logan (MLCI) bought TURN "at 110% of NAV." Source Capital (SOR) got an unsolicited bid at 101 of NAV. One recent small-BDC deal was done at a haircut. His logic is that a big manager can pay more than an outsider, because it can spread the target's management fees over its existing platform. "Bigger is better."
- **Big banks are circling.** "You're already seeing a large CLO provider being bid on by Goldman Sachs." A CLO (collateralized loan obligation) manager packages loans into bonds. He didn't name the target.

What's holding deals back is trust in the numbers: "Is NAV real? Is that a real number that I can trust? And that is why we haven't seen a lot of merger activity... But it's coming."

**Why it matters:** This is the first time in several weeks that a podcast has put a mechanism behind "what happens next." For OWL, OBDC II is the second Blue Owl retail vehicle in the news in three weeks, after Loparex at OBDC. For listed BDCs, the investable question changes from "will the discount close?" to "who buys whom?"

### 3. The $500 billion software question, and why Elbaor still thinks NAVs are mostly fine

**Same source:** [Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DEiQM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDbUfaZcolcXTdCnp0DoD0LrmuwetIV-2BPrXyVIxvDOS1-2BWET0h9-2FyAO1kEYBxhRrfiGUqx-2FLk6yEcqu-2F5Sr3y8czhR8MFkZNLVMlLCkH3cCIJwPZLNRhLa5-2Bv-2BNSrO8HmLQ-3D-3D).

On AI hitting software companies: "the estimated exposure to SaaS by private credit is over half a trillion dollars. And not every single one of those SaaS companies is going to make it. How many make it? Unclear."

Here is the twist. Despite the "boom is over" framing, his house view on credit is moderate. Listed BDCs trade at prices that imply "the cost to get out is somewhere in the line of 60, 65 cents on the dollar." There are two readings. Either the loans really are worth that, or investors are paying a steep price for the ability to leave today. "We think it's a cost of liquidity." Defaults won't be "catastrophically high," though they will be "higher than what other institutions are pricing into these discounts."

**His trade**, stated plainly: if you hold a non-traded private credit fund, "you are certainly redeeming," and if you want to keep the exposure, "you are straight buying publicly listed BDCs that are yield producing. That is absolutely the play. And we are doing that ourselves." More specifically, he is "actively positioned" for BDCs trading at smaller discounts, around 25%, to act as buyers of deeper-discount ones, around 38%. He declined to name holdings. He also said to "keep a close eye on BPRE" for shareholder activism.

**Why it matters:** This is a relative-value trade within the group, not a short on the sector. It rewards owning the stronger, higher-valued BDCs as likely acquirers.

### 4. The European counterpoint: €15bn raised, watch list normal, US BDC money retreating

**Who said it:** Mark Bickerstaffe, co-head of direct lending at Hayfin. He spoke on [Cloud 9fin, "One does not simply raise €15bn in Europe"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJld0r-2BBFjFePsou-2FtISi-2F-2FKJSpzn3a5lJcFa8CgfrHjH5NdIGj6Zv8tHiAuPD4X-2FHLinetll2Gv3us7gunlxYYNhyJ1bu-2FZbSc4h5h2nOTA-3D-3DuC2Y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDT39x5XU2ER5xj4fjbm6dkXOTCSYlVIlKvU554YKgyEpIa83-2Bi8cnJexVNVxs-2FX4-2FOaeH56eTm1fkUV7FEDZxl2pZBu9eX3HnXDS-2BfqxhsLe5i-2FnTV8N8fcNVGr0M7Cgrw-3D-3D) (September 23).

This is the week's best operator interview, and it pushes back on the gloom:

- **Money is still being raised, just unevenly.** Hayfin closed a €15bn fund, its fifth vintage. There's a "bifurcation," he said: some managers can't raise while others thrive. Investors are "rebalancing portfolios away from the US towards other geographies," with new money arriving from the US, the Middle East and Korea.
- **The retail mess helped him.** Hayfin's investors are institutional, so the scrutiny of US BDCs and semi-liquid funds "hasn't really impacted us." If anything it was "something of a tailwind," as institutions looked for "more conservative fund structures." In Europe, semi-liquid retail vehicles are small: "It feels less than 5 percent" of the market.
- **US BDCs are pulling back from Europe.** US BDCs typically keep "a bucket of around about 20 percent" for non-US loans, and much of that went to Europe. Big managers that could underwrite "a billion, maybe even above a billion" in 2024–25 are now doing "more 200, 300, 400." In other words, the redemption squeeze is shrinking US lenders' deal sizes abroad.
- **Borrowers are checking their lenders.** He said something he hadn't seen before: borrowers' term sheets now ask "around lenders funding sources and exposure to retail or semi-liquid vehicles." Companies want a lender whose money can't walk out the door.
- **Deployment is holding up.** "In 2025, we invested just under 6 billion... year to date... around four and a half" (currency not specified). There was a "step change" in M&A activity in July.
- **Credit looks fine, for now.** "We're not really seeing more stress in the portfolio." The watch list is "in line with historical averages," and watch-list names have been declining over the past 18 months. Software is about 6% of the book, underweight in his view, and 15–20% sits in a "medium AI risk" bucket.
- **The problem vintage.** Loans maturing in 2028–2029 were written in 2021–22, before rates rose and at high buyout prices. That vintage is "going to take longer to exit." Some refinancings will need "equity or PREF or some kind of structuring," which he expects to be "an increasing market theme in 2027." On software deals from 2022–24: they "were the most aggressive in the market... Leverage was very high."

**Why it matters:** The pain is concentrated in the retail wrapper and in the US, not necessarily in the loans. Lenders with locked-up institutional money are gaining ground, both with investors and with borrowers.

### 5. The Q1 report cards: non-accruals rising almost everywhere (old data, right direction)

**Who said it:** Michael Garza, host of the *BDC Stock Breakdown* series, *a retail income-investor show.* He ran five episodes this week. **All figures are for Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026).**

| BDC | Problem loans (non-accrual) | NAV per share | Dividend coverage (Q1) | Episode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **BXSL** | 3.1% at fair value / 4.7% at cost | $26.92 → $26.26 | $0.77 NII vs $0.77 dividend (100%) | [BXSL](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BQsnmwOq87aZcV449fLf4wR5eodnOcJaTtlUdIiRsPWg5yGT2r4mLCJWoA4x0h5Oa6C-2F2PkzYXPxr84V8hQX1cmTjPNyAz70YYihp5Kmggw-3D-3D8tpk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDS2VnhVCcqS2BKJurn7hIPQRPANPIyyO73LdqfvVXxYgWoJCqKzs3FZDjYZvg5fPthLELbN-2F5OV4jXHwoSG-2FANQMTiYZMU3MtIco1viu6Zlf-2BXyeaQBpECOlz8C-2Fl8qaIQ-3D-3D) |
| **ARCC** | 2.1% at cost (from 1.8% end-2025) | $19.94 → $19.59 | $0.47 core EPS vs $0.48 dividend | [ARCC](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLHi18hptqRNGIM2H6R1qkWn1vhVxjkKhYmX0B7jqu3whrpgcqZ5zagLCR3MGDaOWFqHkCfEO949t01XISyY6EBVpnNi3f6i63RpRNykggpA-3D-3DLyd6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDdc-2FzgbeI7lgeq6lxUj108QiyulwWb9gj6h2HV17y8lL49UsIF4xZzf0Z2h5Kf6iYH7gaJ94tA7zcYCePs-2Bjycq7dZlo32AH0A4b27H-2Fu94QyKIKGaj3sghOA5z82W-2FITg-3D-3D) |
| **CCAP** | 5.7% at cost / 3.6% FV (from 4.1% / 2%) | $19.10 → $18.27 | Dividend cut 19% to $0.34 | [CCAP](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjqyGURtEyIFAxoBG-2BivwaSyqdRBH9x4cRXhzddku-2F3KzUZrbRpqfmJCYPixB-2Be-2FqLxb8c6M1Vmeu9YWrDMZ6UoBkbDvsf1p1Fz0YZYx3nPJg-3D-3Drht5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDbfdXfZr394ndZ0JZ0fQoYiNFt9uKa5ncWBhBwxwy-2FloNrvCMN2HUajHvzrStgTWI2mancP-2BkgCYDURmj5fFLn6wJXfKRI8Y7kjEfioez55MryoiURBGs67XTrKM9AZcOw-3D-3D) |
| **BBDC** | 10 companies (from 7) | $11.09 → $11.02 | $0.25 vs $0.26 (96%) | [BBDC](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiHxzC-2FvujPpdP-2Bex25MrPRwcIMNCUV9uKN8DY4dqonbTeyZqsuDct5WbMwZvyohBBBRLNW6izZWSo9iabO5BFxFTjMLl8rGh7-2BQmfbQLCH1w-3D-3DI8Xy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDdIoBKgQSvmW5FQ2fLAPIF5A9-2BabTzPj31FDZ2caKFDqtRmb-2FzswekyaVPuS5qzSiQu1YfcDjmGet60BYzLoPprq6-2BZo1EPtqP8-2BULQqnoXmtEGBcJDaygHjLk-2F-2BQK9eng-3D-3D) |
| **BCSF** | 1.4% at cost / 0.6% FV (improved from 0.8%) | $17.23 → $16.86 | $0.42 vs $0.42 (100%) | [BCSF](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhzeRyQWrFb2GSNQR1Xx0gyW2cL90WwaKpnKb3VLmLghMgx14zQRm-2Bt5g1w3TRWNI5h33U95jtLng8aKNJKoShH-2FctB5An6hgcdYz5h4b5jCA-3D-3DOBL__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDR8IguoLlBUtsKVf1p0pEj0DaFx5Q9QWRPLl5PmpN26lw-2BkSDVcg21cvb-2FLqlNqkXurWJY-2FDzb6deHQB8Ancz8b6pE4EnAYj9kznToxPQ3kL8LCnhIz14TruFNHHdfmNWw-3D-3D) |

The pattern: problem loans rose at four of five, NAV fell at all five, and dividend cushions went to zero or below. Falling interest rates are part of it. BXSL's yield on performing loans slipped from 9.6% to 9.3%, and most BDC loans are floating-rate, so income falls as rates fall. Garza still rated BXSL 8.1/10, BCSF 7.7 and BBDC 7.3, all on valuation.

**Why it matters:** This is direction, not news. The right read is that Q1 already showed the squeeze on income and NAV that Elbaor's discount math is pricing in. For current numbers, check each company's Q2 filing.

## The Debate

**Bear case: this is a turning point, not a blip.** Money has stopped flowing in: "no new money, no new capital." The flagship fund has a queue twice its gate and a year of markdowns. Every BDC in Garza's Q1 set lost NAV, and most added problem loans. Private credit has more than half a trillion dollars lent to software companies that AI may hollow out. And the 2021–22 vintage runs into a maturity wall in 2028–29. Add last week's record 6.3% default rate, and a slow-motion credit cycle looks like it has started. It is showing up first where the money can leave.

**Bull case: a liquidity problem in one wrapper, not a credit problem in the asset class.** Even the "boom is over" guest thinks NAVs are basically right and the discount is "a cost of liquidity." A lender actually running a book, Hayfin's Bickerstaffe, says the watch list is normal and shrinking. He also says institutions are writing €15bn checks, and borrowers now actively prefer lenders with locked-up money. Mergers at 101–110% of NAV aren't what a sector in freefall looks like. Senior secured lenders at ~50% loan-to-value (BXSL reports ~51.7%) have a lot of cushion before losing principal.

**Where we land:** both sides agree on more than it seems. The retail semi-liquid wrapper is broken as a growth engine. The fight is over whether the loans inside it are marked right. That question won't be settled by podcasts. It gets settled by Q3 marks and by the first contested BDC merger price.

> **Pull-quote of the week:** "I wouldn't say that there's trouble in the market. There's just a line for those that want out." (James Elbaor, Marlton LLC, on [Other People's Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgrz1U3n7z8xrfk9wnhH-2BhpnMP4lEoIj1TFci4m7OeJIZe5Hljp1B2McEN5cXAyeegBl81o8hMYM7WLcVzoT0Hfi4R7HQed5uYNc98KeCVz8Q-3D-3D4ztI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDYsSUDonmLXngVweadHvko58aTB3UNyJBc2itZtuxWCvWcWsLE5T-2BwWIW-2FJTtbZbRhTkW8EuLM4Yjqq-2FDyyJdNt-2B3tvgCPVBW-2FGp6zJOaN7nW4e8byuf6rqt2uJcBsLJoQ-3D-3D))

## Stocks in Play

**BX / BXSL (Blackstone / Blackstone Secured Lending)**

- *Bull:* The scale platform. BXSL is 97.6% first lien, ~51.7% loan-to-value, and traded at roughly an 11% discount with a ~13.1% yield (on a July price) ([Michael Garza](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BQsnmwOq87aZcV449fLf4wR5eodnOcJaTtlUdIiRsPWg5yGT2r4mLCJWoA4x0h5Oa6C-2F2PkzYXPxr84V8hQX1cmTjPNyAz70YYihp5Kmggw-3D-3Dw3oT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDWHB3xnRcBCB3w0pb1xI8DzsZmelaP0JNd8us1Iu88efNsIgxrm0dUqQcd-2B8O1DdjhIzZ6EyKeJF6OH-2BJXM-2BLhKKzkX6drJTwx9IFMvWgn4R8SxgHPaGHgESeG1flBBwuw-3D-3D)).
- *Bear:* B-Cred requests at 10% versus a 5% gate, with four straight quarters of markdowns ([Other People's Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgrz1U3n7z8xrfk9wnhH-2BhpnMP4lEoIj1TFci4m7OeJIZe5Hljp1B2McEN5cXAyeegBl81o8hMYM7WLcVzoT0Hfi4R7HQed5uYNc98KeCVz8Q-3D-3D1Ezc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDWuN1OBmwZ4MPpIMiamO85vdyVL5dyppoZ3rY-2B0l8VUS-2BT7uvDZNfp5MET5BTGmVMj8u8evJTlC9PfzWLb3SiVxwitB-2Btbdken8cN3BL1vn8aDc7M-2BX23ZxOR3KnQNkQEQ-3D-3D)). BXSL has ~21% in software, a Medallia restructuring, and NII down from $0.83 to $0.77 over a year ([Michael Garza](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BQsnmwOq87aZcV449fLf4wR5eodnOcJaTtlUdIiRsPWg5yGT2r4mLCJWoA4x0h5Oa6C-2F2PkzYXPxr84V8hQX1cmTjPNyAz70YYihp5Kmggw-3D-3DngJZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDWqDFL8qj7mMkqRCnp7t2-2BREq5YveKTCnoWg1PcbAFeqYGzuJi4BtLkfIZllycM9nOoRbdjOs7Ys7n306ZP9pdAI7Lrbzrs5AIGxrEvZJcNF-2FhQjoXW5tjwiFTGRdKbb0A-3D-3D)).
- *Next catalyst:* Q3 results (quarter ending September 30), including B-Cred flows and marks.

**OWL / OBDC (Blue Owl)**

- *Bull:* Winding down OBDC II returns cash at NAV over time rather than dumping loans at a listed-fund discount ([Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DONby_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDUnTQYgTBh-2FvlY2pZC6XuNRVYK6Ur1KaGTu9BPd8sQIKTOe6t1wzhtdldU-2B7-2BMqKg3qBNgbnGgEl5PhjhdF7DM0kVK58BM0d9Nx40Gc19jV5jw93EW9G61XHKZTM50KRsQ-3D-3D)).
- *Bear:* A wind-down means those fees shrink permanently. It lands on top of last week's Loparex write-down to near zero at OBDC.
- *Next catalyst:* Q3 results, the OBDC II wind-down pace, and whether Loparex files for Chapter 11.

**ARES / ARCC (Ares)**

- *Bull:* The largest diversified book, $29.5B across 607 companies, with leverage at 1.13x and 9+ years of stable-or-rising dividends ([Michael Garza](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLHi18hptqRNGIM2H6R1qkWn1vhVxjkKhYmX0B7jqu3whrpgcqZ5zagLCR3MGDaOWFqHkCfEO949t01XISyY6EBVpnNi3f6i63RpRNykggpA-3D-3Ds1WI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDbEL1YAjS2WQuHRz4O-2F8jDVBoB1Pgnz5-2BcdYXw4tKPzcqBBW4X2TcKP-2F4DiQQ2-2FtHP-2BAR16YV-2BOrSVrwgrL-2BwuJGrpV5W7FOOi35WO1Hksk7HC0dQeFAlIk0215Kdav1Ug-3D-3D)). A natural acquirer in Elbaor's consolidation playbook.
- *Bear:* Q1 core EPS of $0.47 was under the $0.48 dividend, non-accruals rose to 2.1%, and NAV fell ([Michael Garza](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLHi18hptqRNGIM2H6R1qkWn1vhVxjkKhYmX0B7jqu3whrpgcqZ5zagLCR3MGDaOWFqHkCfEO949t01XISyY6EBVpnNi3f6i63RpRNykggpA-3D-3DlL8Q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDWKK32gmt6N1bFjkQTmUXTpRcByx-2F3NOovOkd6w5Vedmyn7v-2FMUkiLbZjb5LwilPaMiyC1CtasdIH17WqwHnTRisIUhBHSYNQVT4rx-2BOWGbMKZBo5J2M7zDkgWvpgjpK2A-3D-3D)).
- *Next catalyst:* Q3 dividend coverage.

**CCAP (Crescent Capital BDC)**

- *Bull:* The dividend was cut to a level covered ~1.24x, fees were cut permanently, and the stock traded at ~61¢ per dollar of NAV ([Michael Garza](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjqyGURtEyIFAxoBG-2BivwaSyqdRBH9x4cRXhzddku-2F3KzUZrbRpqfmJCYPixB-2Be-2FqLxb8c6M1Vmeu9YWrDMZ6UoBkbDvsf1p1Fz0YZYx3nPJg-3D-3DoJPI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDUOM6Hb4rv11zSl0S-2BRNLd-2FoiuCJNLdOIj7nW-2F7VQgOAdTv6B0MxEXGRL-2BPtw9IsdXtv5-2BM4K4sSv6TIgnB3xbRmeFEUGwa4-2Fdsy0cqkZhvNm9VJ7KKIFjd0NKHAt6G7RA-3D-3D)). A deep-discount name of the kind Elbaor expects to be taken over.
- *Bear:* The worst credit trend in the set. Non-accruals are 5.7% at cost, and NAV is down ~7% year on year.
- *Next catalyst:* Q3 non-accruals, and any strategic interest.

**BBDC (Barings BDC)**

- *Bull:* ~78% of NAV, a 12.1% yield, a $30M buyback, and a $67M cash payment from Barings LLC to clear legacy Sierra support ([Michael Garza](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiHxzC-2FvujPpdP-2Bex25MrPRwcIMNCUV9uKN8DY4dqonbTeyZqsuDct5WbMwZvyohBBBRLNW6izZWSo9iabO5BFxFTjMLl8rGh7-2BQmfbQLCH1w-3D-3DB_1X_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDe6N86SMdwwm0ibhn3cwJxk-2BLGyEEkvxpo3xFREbtvnNRnIpCtJo9kajkaYab30OctCGxINXVylr6zbRlgvYZpZZtEUhEe9P6it-2F0aH5kDRDQqr4S85he0kHKBHm-2FtpxDw-3D-3D)).
- *Bear:* Non-accrual companies went from 7 to 10, and the dividend was 96% covered.
- *Next catalyst:* Redeployment of the $67M, and use of the buyback.

**BCSF (Bain Capital Specialty Finance)**

- *Bull:* The only name in the set where problem loans improved (0.6% at fair value), at ~76% of NAV ([Michael Garza](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhzeRyQWrFb2GSNQR1Xx0gyW2cL90WwaKpnKb3VLmLghMgx14zQRm-2Bt5g1w3TRWNI5h33U95jtLng8aKNJKoShH-2FctB5An6hgcdYz5h4b5jCA-3D-3DgifC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDcHRLqvS-2FHXWNZV3MYnLCgSaXQ4pVU2ETbFSlpqGu-2Bw0F4RLbZMS6vb4kCd6RHMoq0ARmNltPHLv5ZuotmKOXLdPcA0tQX1bleUnofc0GqMiOjROFWRHk1ggD9opRCZuIQ-3D-3D)).
- *Bear:* NII fell ~8.7% in one quarter, and leverage rose to 1.28x.
- *Next catalyst:* Q3 coverage of the $0.42 dividend.

**GS (Goldman Sachs):** mentioned only in passing, as bidding for "a large CLO provider" (unnamed) ([Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DMzdV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDT2F9ykb6YQoSakKYb-2Btm6f4G0jMKeTPRDdoOJKKGb7Hr9GIDEWvPGPEn3tHWm0Q0xN4Gc2NdTbuc79lnvK-2BiyaRY-2FccRJVFVhnNz7EuNH3w49k8h423kEeprOZGyHd-2BQw-3D-3D)). It suggests banks are buying credit platforms rather than just competing with them.

## Read-Throughs

- **Listed BDCs (ARCC, BXSL, OBDC):** the story moves from "discount to NAV" to "who consolidates whom." Elbaor's framework favors the less-discounted names as buyers ([Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3D8vrf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDaGEjPR4itkgzYYYRMlG-2B1guf2DBz-2BGaQIGl-2BvEsjQmykgR6y5kXJ6ZKcufPcVvjYppqNv1YV6b-2Bw6ZEvS6gba7OIXwc9jJH-2B6M5t3ZzsB0ap0ns7ndggFZfk2E-2BntgH5Q-3D-3D)). Q1 data shows all three under income pressure as rates fall ([BXSL](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BQsnmwOq87aZcV449fLf4wR5eodnOcJaTtlUdIiRsPWg5yGT2r4mLCJWoA4x0h5Oa6C-2F2PkzYXPxr84V8hQX1cmTjPNyAz70YYihp5Kmggw-3D-3DsP7i_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDYJ5NcRff5TTQ2LlAQmk0UbDe6iH697xmd6VigmZmxtUCs7PfykrvS6qRQMisQdK9L3dx9yNHhNzjPnxBGVdYR4QE9Y-2FQgrQJUjsaWmnbM8zfetxHwfeV8QRpdqMQTjdYw-3D-3D), [ARCC](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgLHi18hptqRNGIM2H6R1qkWn1vhVxjkKhYmX0B7jqu3whrpgcqZ5zagLCR3MGDaOWFqHkCfEO949t01XISyY6EBVpnNi3f6i63RpRNykggpA-3D-3DjhWh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDeFveZZIgQmrqQ3VVrSO87NJaroHbEJiQH9BG05FbsXHL7oa6-2FndAteXipP5q9I1Hok6xtOPi2kJyjtRGAbcWayPybAUKvLGq-2BvEFf55VxnJ2jFThrx6xOEujqkp11Setg-3D-3D)).
- **Insurance balance-sheet partners:** Elbaor listed an insurance balance sheet as one possible "wrapper" for private assets ([Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DU3bG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDbEu1mZvWhcNYw0ZHBXy3pnjm09L-2Fv1JyhkhO-2BHn36rAweCXSEWxsfAl0ECCz8-2B-2BrtaTzy2XzWvpWefPEhf-2FXEiJwR04iDmIXph5JQJ76QF5xuudvkIwWJo9NlYwH95paQ-3D-3D)).
- **Banks:** Elbaor explicitly does *not* see private credit as a systemic risk to banks: "If somebody has a view on private credit being systemic to the banking sector. We do not." ([Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DPauE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDfjP94d6FNQuR399qMnNkXV1sI6LD1sk8DO-2FF3u2vFeC0SCOAtEHXSgRR8IJ-2FKnpgKGw6as-2BdZ0xAh92tQjGCXCiWkR7cexa98NbY-2BCEq6mp953FxSRdaNRhhlImWtu0uA-3D-3D)). Goldman bidding for a CLO manager points toward partnership and platform-buying, which fits last week's data point that big banks fund the non-bank lenders.
- **Syndicated loans / CLOs:** Hayfin says private credit keeps winning share "from banks, BSLs" ([Cloud 9fin](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJld0r-2BBFjFePsou-2FtISi-2F-2FKJSpzn3a5lJcFa8CgfrHjH5NdIGj6Zv8tHiAuPD4X-2FHLinetll2Gv3us7gunlxYYNhyJ1bu-2FZbSc4h5h2nOTA-3D-3DgCRP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDRKgrdN1oQeXTm4oVgGv5-2FsEAxeSly6-2FdrX5ItDANeRb60BXu1lHezIQ4-2BEVbRjKLMJQBBSbprKhEGr3f6LkXpYvmBLroFgVGgxtqvBu15dITVf96ej-2BOkL7HYfof56GgQ-3D-3D)). BSL means broadly syndicated loans, the bank-arranged loans sold to many investors. Borrowers now vet lenders' funding sources, which is a point in favor of locked-up capital over semi-liquid funds.
- **Data-center / ABF borrowers:** Hayfin mentioned asset-based finance as a category it looks at ([Cloud 9fin](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJld0r-2BBFjFePsou-2FtISi-2F-2FKJSpzn3a5lJcFa8CgfrHjH5NdIGj6Zv8tHiAuPD4X-2FHLinetll2Gv3us7gunlxYYNhyJ1bu-2FZbSc4h5h2nOTA-3D-3Ds36m_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDRTVMfjTofqcXLEKvfFZVBGDKPU-2B-2BN1IuC3uXAiBzwDhpbNbduIh71-2Bf0J5A9GnWuaC44T-2FvAip8wXUhV-2BXFDVsZQp6zS4dtl15qCkhpbFoZo6JiwXFQX-2FpNBtTqROJHfg-3D-3D)).

## What Changed vs Last Week

- **The main worry moved from defaults to redemptions.** Last week's headline was a record 6.3% trailing default rate. The new number is B-Cred's 10% redemption request against a 5% gate ([Other People's Money](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgrz1U3n7z8xrfk9wnhH-2BhpnMP4lEoIj1TFci4m7OeJIZe5Hljp1B2McEN5cXAyeegBl81o8hMYM7WLcVzoT0Hfi4R7HQed5uYNc98KeCVz8Q-3D-3DLa8w_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDTbMp9kjKLLesqvzbxUUOrtLgSzFEJdQ7Vt4dx1QBoneMoVwE3VmViaJncuslsApj0cIyiHxHJv8TtI-2F9RtGZcxivhF-2BBny06W3BKmSBW2sF4G-2FiXCINd5RBZVGQboK0AA-3D-3D)).
- **Blue Owl gets a second headline.** Last week it was Loparex marked to near zero at OBDC. This week it is the OBDC II wind-down ([Monetary Matters](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeElSzJa3tZ-2BDwt4-2BDnrhvowVh9z8Bge-2FU5t4A0qLezdQx2nMqVOK17CkGUgIpstP-2BtVXZpl6ATOieNyEU6y9GPXSbekakFVl72Ye30YJBEA-3D-3DasmE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDaV-2BDWv-2Fbb4xtqdvbp4WSV1qkOrnJigzhniiTa175yThEMqp7fVUTCNjCiptzaRgkY5FgPXVEj2kYzsMX3b0oxDVwRykwzql-2BiX2IKGGGw-2BrgUBA2fomD6VAy3Ky9-2FbFsg-3D-3D)).
- **The bulls changed venue.** Last week the optimism came from Apollo's Zelter and Monroe's Koenig in the US. This week it came from a European institutional lender, Hayfin, who explicitly credits the US retail stress with helping him ([Cloud 9fin](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjJld0r-2BBFjFePsou-2FtISi-2F-2FKJSpzn3a5lJcFa8CgfrHjH5NdIGj6Zv8tHiAuPD4X-2FHLinetll2Gv3us7gunlxYYNhyJ1bu-2FZbSc4h5h2nOTA-3D-3DxHfb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUmG2j4bIbeS8YSf1VePCcc0iqeNCu5rlEXUwjoCHkCDXzqfBEUGaAsC6HWFoGQ9EHMNqmTbXwHlmF7cvhWKWuwz5ifYIKZT8fdKC8Z-2B9bBCbQjZry8A6CkhXatJ58ym5KCibRafwiwTwIZl7xRrimPfpAzNVoWB-2BlJEsgW-2FnFr9A-3D-3D)).
- **Brand new: a consolidation roadmap.** Examples include mergers at 101–110% of NAV, Goldman's CLO bid, and BPRE's 38% listing discount.

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