# Cooler Inflation, Higher Yields, and a Dollar Stuck in Neutral - The Dollar Brief - Week of October 1, 2026

> The Dollar Brief for the week of October 1, 2026 (podcasts published September 30): August PCE came in soft and October hike odds fell to 35% from 47%, yet the 30-year hit its highest since 2002 and the 10-year neared its 2007 peak, euro-dollar touched a 16-month low before bouncing, Treasury counselor David Zervos gave his first interview, and LPL's Christian Kerr flagged the dollar index at critical levels.

## The Dollar Brief

### Week of October 1, 2026: Cooler Inflation, Higher Yields, and a Dollar Stuck in Neutral

---

Wednesday brought the inflation number everyone had been waiting for, and it came in soft.

The bond market didn't care.

Here's how CNBC's Steve Liesman summed up the morning on [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh1-2FZdIt4Bkqz-2BHF4GnPnamDYm5z-2BlX5tTwHdl4vsx0BYlXmeIapDMhq1wef8I-2FtUTnH895ZmuFjtnctiKGiSc2x-2B7alSkPvlz4CB5QeiTmbQ-3D-3DUk1v_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jYySawm0T-2BUHwokWAa7U58UVZWxeXstAlXP-2B7zKnx-2FQB-2BK8KCF2-2FV-2FCQUMjZZki-2BEt0e5CaQtm7lX4jMMN6OkM7rUPQk66trdtBysCY0MYSuwUOelsrixAn8Jy-2BSGv019sA-3D-3D): the 10-year Treasury yield had "an initial rally turned into a sell-off with yields marching higher again at around... 5.27% right now. 5.32% is the 2007 high watermark."

So the Fed's favorite inflation gauge cooled, traders cut the odds of an October rate hike, and long-term borrowing costs went *up* anyway. Meanwhile the dollar, which on Tuesday pushed the euro to its lowest level since May 2025, backed off again.

That combination is the story of this issue. It says the rise in yields is not mainly about the Fed. It also explains why the dollar keeps failing to break out in either direction. Two different podcast guests on Wednesday said the same thing in different words: currencies are waiting for something to snap in the bond market.

*(A quick glossary. A "yield" is the interest rate on a bond; it rises when the bond's price falls. A "basis point" is one-hundredth of a percentage point. "PCE" is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the inflation measure the Fed targets; "core" strips out food and energy. The "DXY" or dollar index measures the dollar against six major currencies. A "buyback" here means the Treasury buying back its own older bonds. The "term premium" is the extra yield investors demand for tying up money for a long time.)*

## TL;DR

- **Inflation cooled, but not as much as it looks.** PCE prices rose 0.3% in August, holding at 3.4% from a year earlier, and core held at 3.0%. A change in how the government calculates it shaved "about 36 basis points" off the yearly rate ([Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh1-2FZdIt4Bkqz-2BHF4GnPnamDYm5z-2BlX5tTwHdl4vsx0BYlXmeIapDMhq1wef8I-2FtUTnH895ZmuFjtnctiKGiSc2x-2B7alSkPvlz4CB5QeiTmbQ-3D-3DIloP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY-2BCagVkDX0it1gXRIu91EHUCxzJ82bZjw5jaIDXeklf7n-2Bt5buvofD5DOtxXpjc-2FFOCjB6qZK-2Buw0su7a-2BW6zIYrp0ocIKzyxN5YS1e4jtl9XJMzrfIq1w8uv8g7EdDo-2Fg-3D-3D), Sep 30).
- **Odds of an October hike dropped, but December is still priced.** October fell to 35% from 47% before the data. December is still at 88%. New York Fed President John Williams had already said there was "no urgency" to hike again.
- **Yields rose anyway.** The 30-year hit its highest level since 2002. Peter Schiff put the intraday high at 5.62% and the 10-year at 5.29% ([The Peter Schiff Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjSXcyeayvOnq-2BD-2FsUEv8Cgp-2FJIbgHkKPvinHQ-2B0bLcLzN3qMN-2FY45q6YIuTnEVoenRdAe4ySLCLmNLgg62IhIzmEt4ljxDORB5iVvNb93-2F4A-3D-3Dqv9J_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY7b84RMXxIxAVd-2FawNH8iDhvy-2FI9EVjDIqctl4O6WiTOSpRoCeFVaZMHJ-2F5Bry54WybgR7e-2FIEl9gqD-2BBRPGqrvYVxbmRd-2BvA1B6WnzLz-2B55mjnFWy7fYRexTKQqzT11qQ-3D-3D), Sep 30).
- **The euro hit a 16-month low, then bounced.** Saxo's John Hardy said euro-dollar dipped "below that 113.25 level," its weakest since May 2025, before Williams' comments pulled the dollar back ([Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhwp0rrn2s-2FZnG9UaB82TWaL0keOjpUmNMpovFGtSdAZU9nC6nxNgLIortLLc7iW7d9h-2FKvUSVYjTKWv0c6drC4u2x-2BqWQC5iEATeNNbV15-2Fw-3D-3DCwrw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY4jMB5HJBHJSyWOJhKpQ1gJtGPX-2F85Wj8gXslIgRGB4js9MtsrEotCFceMuwQlH7F4QdXYSlekV3GV2iCR1G8oXNh7DCo91nHFj5U767D6h6Z7JGdyxaK15IDdgkmP8Bew-3D-3D), Sep 30). The gap between French and German borrowing costs, now at a record 120 basis points, is weighing on the euro.
- **Bessent's new counselor gave his first interview.** David Zervos blamed oil, not inflation fears, for higher yields, and said the Treasury is taking control of the shape of US debt back from the Fed.
- **The dollar is at "really critical" levels.** LPL's Christian Kerr said currency volatility is near five-year lows and named 95 and 105 to 110 on the dollar index as the lines that would wake it up ([Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjgqgR7syAQqCDqVO-2BIbFze9mzWMzVBKAyrqZ2geOC5zR2M8kGGoNJa-2Fqnzm9fVfYdI6bWBDxXeO9cHljLj3xzfUYnUVnt1RkQvdRcDYwKJTA-3D-3DsUEM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jYytw9qLBcUcNwb5w8-2BcvQW5VLvy3NXB7wRG9qkbLuTQO9y7Tb8yyd-2Fm04S5hFlVcCXDlpvI1GOK9jpSGRWywbVQA3FGGXZLDb2TsZDqQdZEjhAJcCSJk9RteuFOwXZx52g-3D-3D), Sep 30).
- **De-dollarization got a new spokesman: Canada.** Money Metals' Mike Meharry pointed to Prime Minister Mark Carney calling for a "multipolar system" of reserve currencies. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened to knock anyone who services Iranian airlines "out of the dollar system."

## What's new

### The inflation number that didn't move bonds

Liesman laid out the August PCE data on [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh1-2FZdIt4Bkqz-2BHF4GnPnamDYm5z-2BlX5tTwHdl4vsx0BYlXmeIapDMhq1wef8I-2FtUTnH895ZmuFjtnctiKGiSc2x-2B7alSkPvlz4CB5QeiTmbQ-3D-3DVk_6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jYy32Ri9GsWQCOQEZjIwuDuDu74OMEN-2F7FTU734cJLa4yfvxw-2FrozkqVl7Fe7diYt1Gp3UmPDkE3clJsI6Ptx03uPtaU3jVQb87bQvMWWQOS1vNb29dTeixlpWOBO2EJRKQ-3D-3D):

- **Headline PCE** rose 0.3% for the month, up from 0.1%. The yearly rate was "unchanged at 3.4%."
- **Core PCE** rose 0.2%, with the yearly rate at 3%.
- **The asterisk.** "The year over year rate was helped by a change in methodology, shaving about 36 basis points off the annual rate."
- **The friendliest number.** Core inflation over the last three months, at an annual rate, is "down to 2.05%."

The Paul Barron Crypto Show put the expectation at 3.7%, so a 3.4% print looked like a clear miss to the downside ([The Paul Barron Crypto Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhg3RcTiR3xz5R481WQpSa-2F9-2BlwkWI9Cor3zUwoDgeqzzF5O66VSNneSG4-2BLprLQ0VImkZIxsQuSmQJOd-2BdpeuwohRFaADwVrKzu25imBRqKg-3D-3DPfbC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY0n7-2F2itRhfkiD6cm9DXWCV7Lc3mnZAEq5-2BRDeeoqbyAUh2RKIQqS05YthCZFQ90SEOkvP7tqXYM2wtrUzOi-2FnpOE4yRMGxE3irG1giq9V9MDLoOsn2aVJQxSAb6SJxkWA-3D-3D), Sep 30). *(Crypto venue; that's his comparison.)* On Bloomberg Surveillance, Wolfe Research's Stephanie Roth was more careful. Core "barely rounded down to 0.2. It's 0.247" ([Bloomberg Surveillance TV](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhyk3OMicXKuEum0h4JqRZnh0cTFKxRJzgO3Tzg1RQOTxb00hopZMVOGn7sURlTkjDHTedZAvT8e9vdkPUjYP2-2FW4aj53gQe6racDKb6RLmng-3D-3Dyu4e_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY3z-2FyykxfBy-2F3Jhrzae3JsRsqbGuPJg4EwUVI6TK9k5v7biRpf8PJSfqi8Wzrkv7wCGqGuRSsvGWIJ6Hc60D5n7fqlm-2BXYwFcOjqaeDUaXhTeIPNhXHUM60X40JV-2FNSddg-3D-3D), Sep 30).

**What the revisions actually changed.** Roth said the downward revision to the yearly rate, "about 40 basis points," was "mostly driven by portfolio management." In plain terms, the government stopped counting a rise in investment fees as inflation just because stock prices went up. Barron listed the other two categories that were reworked: computer software and legal services.

**The growth side was strong.** Second-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2% at an annual rate from 1.5%, according to Bloomberg Surveillance. Liesman said the third quarter is tracking near "4%," and the ADP private payrolls report beat expectations. His conclusion: "unless 3 is the new 2, the Fed's going to think it still has work to do."

### Fed pricing: October fades, December stays

Two things knocked down the odds of an October hike:

- **Williams on Tuesday.** He said there was no urgency to hike again after September, and that only "one further hike later this year may be appropriate," per [InvestTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQi-2Fx40qt9QkUBaNJ-2BslmCicx38pqOrXbTlyq15t4iSJCVS12RxbOmkRVdfr7esnc5MS-2FfoUj7Eob7uIcwgW61owMXcMOmxwdv-2BGiilch1dg-3D-3D1ekJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY7KFDiIs3Gk6epOBS7wZeagyboivsIH0RT3f9OMhwF9MuDjbu6tUZWNBXhLaVTTOLL9Q-2Fs3XrC1gfBAaj1kBlrnxDbTB1Q8T7o6wtw-2Fa4bR8s3v-2FOEOK9MTAOO5ZM1Xg8Q-3D-3D) (Sep 30). Hardy said it "looked an awful lot like forward guidance" and wondered "how this played with Fed Chair Warsh."
- **The PCE data on Wednesday.** October odds fell "to 35% from 47% before the data," with December still at 88%, per Liesman.

John Hancock's Matt Miskin summed it up on [Bloomberg Surveillance TV](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhyk3OMicXKuEum0h4JqRZnh0cTFKxRJzgO3Tzg1RQOTxb00hopZMVOGn7sURlTkjDHTedZAvT8e9vdkPUjYP2-2FW4aj53gQe6racDKb6RLmng-3D-3DzL1v_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jYzdwVfwKdOLiVt03BofsOHawiCpICorrqr4bFOYLTYppss6svRQqh0uJIC8d9cMV760SNnuqCGcPZSz29UDFriNv-2FZSNQs4gpg-2Flad6zFT-2BMpvBQdWnhNltz37yman-2FktQ-3D-3D): "we've gone from about 3 hikes priced in to 2."

**Roth's swing factors** for whether the Fed moves in October:

- **Friday's jobs report.** Her forecast: 70,000 new jobs, unemployment ticking up to 4.2%, and wages up 0.3%. "A somewhat boring report realistically."
- **Wages.** "If that starts to change, that could easily tip the scale in favor of going in October."
- **Oil and the midterms.** "Trump has alluded to not wanting to have a deal before the midterm election. So if we end up with oil prices where we are or higher, the market's going to probably push them to end up hiking."

### Yields keep climbing, and "this cycle isn't really about the Fed"

The clearest explanation of the day came from AllianceBernstein's Eric Winograd on Bloomberg Surveillance's ["PCE, Yields, and the Tech Trade"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlmpG26npxT05bGW6YtTebYUs6ivoH3wL5cTqcuV2rCT7k-2FzPKDo-2FUJT1GGE5-2FbW082boWEY0cFFoE-2FhW6bV5NNcdTD5pbnyznLvbQ4kMrmg-3D-3DOgJC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY3us1uQ-2BBa7K3HZW0IVzH6IbUqg7w0CNT7U6wJuOACYEThsniMKxVQBlGMFKsJMHoj-2F-2BNl2-2FF-2BUvI4vF5BQ1SrXj3bLI8fjgfasr6sq331gfljmEuTdSPuCDjCiMBGzuGA-3D-3D):

> *"This cycle is unusual because when the Fed was cutting rates, long bond yields were going up. And now that they've raised rates, long bond yields are still going up, right? So that tells us that this cycle isn't really about the Fed."*

What is it about, then? Winograd called it "a smorgasbord of all these different variables":

- A budget deficit of "6% of GDP" in "an economy that is strong or solid or stable or whatever you want to pick," which "doesn't make any sense."
- Policy whiplash: "tariffs on, tariffs off... oil prices up... geopolitics on, geopolitics off."
- "The Treasury Department changing its issuance calendar."
- And one aimed squarely at this newsletter: "We're intervening in FX markets."

All of these, he argued, "argue for higher risk premium," the extra return investors want for holding something unpredictable.

Grain Markets and Other Stuff had a farm-belt version from rates analyst Jim Urio ([Grain Markets and Other Stuff](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi2z-2FQ5ED0s-2BSi1kCNPOYuAdn3KmRheJBE8HIXnFhhwWA-2BVrBJWKWGJHFIkDB4HCfdajfunw4ZSGHxeqeC4LEZPl5yPsH4NQ3-2FQ7k51ujH6kQ-3D-3D2HQr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY4Hv3xlN0girY-2BW9WhKxmJSDyZ-2FKvqYowgbqnn-2BGtY3izDr-2FJjWUPOrv9jcNltq-2BEqEb7rtr4G-2BSp4DiSzuqHB-2FfSOsfFbJ52MfACjoPKoA-2BFPbW1NtR2DHxeT75-2FB1RTg-3D-3D), Sep 30). He named three causes. The good one: an "AI-driven economic boom is drawing capital away from the safety of bonds." The worse two: "worry that inflation is becoming embedded" and, "most compelling," that "wars are expensive and the Treasury needs to sell a lot of bonds to finance the conflict." His view: "the Fed is hiking in the hopes that it will bring long-end yields lower... So far, it hasn't worked."

**AI borrowing is now on the same scale as the Treasury.** On the same Bloomberg Surveillance episode, Jens Nordvik of Exante Data said that by his projections, corporate bond issuance with maturities beyond 10 years, driven by data centers, "could be of roughly the same magnitude as the treasury is." His aside: "If I come here and said this a couple of years ago, you'd probably kick me out of the studio saying, okay, what are you smoking?"

Nordvik also offered a useful clue about where the pressure is coming from. Bond yields are rising everywhere, but "the slope of the curve is more problematically steep in the places where the debt issues are the most severe." The US and French curves were "still steepening today." Switzerland, "where they have no debt," isn't seeing it.

### Why the dollar isn't moving, in two quotes

This was the most dollar-relevant idea of the day, and it came from two separate guests.

**Nordvik** said currency markets "haven't really moved that much except the Korean won." His explanation is that the dollar is waiting for the bond market to break:

> *"We can't have 30-year yields continuing to go up, you know, every few months, 50 basis points. It's not going to be sustainable... eventually, we'll have to have some type of backstop from central bank balance sheet to other balance sheet to stop it. And that will be when the currencies react."*

His verdict: "We're not there yet. But I think this year is a transition year where we'll get to that point." Bessent's buybacks, he added, haven't "really had a huge impact so far."

**Christian Kerr,** head of macro strategy at LPL Financial, made a related point on [Money Life with Chuck Jaffe](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjgqgR7syAQqCDqVO-2BIbFze9mzWMzVBKAyrqZ2geOC5zR2M8kGGoNJa-2Fqnzm9fVfYdI6bWBDxXeO9cHljLj3xzfUYnUVnt1RkQvdRcDYwKJTA-3D-3DZatV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY2t3ZHJFmosW1ab6wErQvjwtFjsLDMISImR00Zx910Q8gDcByLVjkYSSRDIztevUGYKD-2FJxNXlAQszwJDvayUwSo6v1B9Ot-2F93AuCOo-2BrxK4Ro348y-2FxubsQ9Be1uBaksg-3D-3D). The dollar "hasn't done anything for basically two years," and currency volatility is "right around kind of five year lows, even with interventions in the yen." Because volatility tends to snap back, "you tend to be close to... a time when it's going to matter again."

He gave specific lines on the dollar index:

- **Below 95:** volatility rises, and the dollar is breaking down.
- **Up through 105 or 110:** "a pretty clear confirmation that the dollar is... starting another leg higher."

"I think we're at really critical kind of levels in the U.S. dollar here. That's going to dictate kind of thematically... a lot of things over the next couple of quarters."

### The euro's real problem is France

On Tuesday the dollar "following through stronger" pushed euro-dollar "to new lows since May of last year," Hardy said on Wednesday's [Saxo Market Call](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhwp0rrn2s-2FZnG9UaB82TWaL0keOjpUmNMpovFGtSdAZU9nC6nxNgLIortLLc7iW7d9h-2FKvUSVYjTKWv0c6drC4u2x-2BqWQC5iEATeNNbV15-2Fw-3D-3DWu_Z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY-2BU5t6hLK75YPW1-2BeQAL8wPkTnPOoqu3B7usdYWMhsJwKFyRclyZlAsymCW8SyC3yyuzJIUFD2VrFRhH0ZV0dDAjSKpdjPSLS1LNNDBpHasZDcTDmWNmWBFJnKKc0iTQ7g-3D-3D). It traded "a handful of pips below" 1.1325 before bouncing. He credited the bounce to Williams' comments, which "punch[ed] rates pretty sharply lower" at the short end, and possibly to month-end flows.

**The France angle.** Hardy flagged what he called "the most urgent" issue: the gap between French and German 10-year yields "hit new highs and it's at 120 basis points," and it's "tracking with the euro-dollar." He's seen "at least 2 or 3 sources" making the link.

- **The political setup.** The first round of France's presidential election is on April 18 next year. Macron's popularity has fallen so far that the likely final two are the National Rally's Marine Le Pen and the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Hardy called that "Scylla and Charybdis in terms of the French debt market," meaning two bad choices.
- **The debt picture.** Citing Russell Napier, Hardy called France "the basket case of Europe when it comes to the total debt load," counting both government and private debt. The UK's government debt looks ugly, but its private sector is "in a far different place."
- **Why it matters for the dollar.** "How bright it burns will be aggravated if global yields are under pressure." In other words, more global bond selling means more euro weakness, which flatters the dollar.

**His timing view:** "It's tough to argue for a significant break when we're all waiting for this key data," meaning Friday's jobs report. "That's when... the bigger flows will happen."

### Japan: a strong auction and a firmer yen

Hardy noted another "strong 2-year auction" in Japan and "more follow-up strength in the Japanese yen overnight." But by morning, he said, he was "a bit surprised" to see the yen giving back some of those gains against other currencies. *(Monday and Tuesday's issues covered the warnings from Japanese officials that have kept dollar-yen pinned.)*

**Japan has been selling Treasuries, and the UK has been buying.** On [Soar Financially](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0JF0oogKtjVRFohsWtsbVwOS4BIvTj0RUzvUcbCjQvf6gOJ0pRgBa95KtmVwQydT9riy5hhrZBdQ710TGGmWFFOR0BGvEIFX2fR7h34kwpw-3D-3DUt-O_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY0ohRNb-2Bk4E58AV3ud4fQG5q2-2FT6zOJ2Jyd4hs1L0PmdwW9EKs0BO-2F1NaJ3OY7vjS1Wm00ePFQfTY6imMzAITbpuDXrKBbck-2FClfVilpkRMXvCscB67sSvXEkNTakR-2BJFA-3D-3D) (Sep 30), the host walked through official Treasury holdings data with Jesse Felder of The Felder Report:

- **UK:** from "$895 billion" in July 2025 to "$998 billion" in July 2026.
- **Japan:** up to about "$1.2 trillion" and now "back to $1.1 trillion."

Felder's explanation of the Japan side: to prop up the yen, Japan has to "sell Treasury... out of their holdings in order to... sell dollars and buy yen." That "obviously made Scott Bessent unhappy," because "it doesn't help that one of the largest foreign holders is being forced to sell." His prescription for Tokyo: "address that through the interest rate channel rather than trying to just manipulate currency."

On DHUnplugged, one of the hosts put it more bluntly ([DHUnplugged #820](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhYjJDwruxwdiRJEHVjjOHFs3yz0Qbw4w83HWXFO-2FSWkuGqWeAhcNaxA1WGWGdyeF-2F4dlIfwiCeclfhPFHl0UsmzaL-2BI60ZEAEQlLYzH-2F8v0Q-3D-3DFA5U_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY9RmQww-2FP-2FOlzo89iEFFqvEGDE5kekJTrBDngbVbsi9OeEwbqK3Td-2BCRbYam-2Fa1oHSNmDFJhepYlaacyPOtorQKo1XcCF5okeH0pFbd-2BvTueM5mUgHSNuTaao-2BDmGibEUw-3D-3D), Sep 30). Bessent "challenged the markets" by saying he's "the house when it came to the Japanese yen," and the bond market's answer was, in effect, a rude no: "We're the global financial markets... no match for a treasury secretary." *(Pundit commentary, paraphrasing.)*

### Zervos' first interview: "It's much more about real rates"

Monday's issue mentioned that Bessent had hired Jefferies strategist David Zervos. On Wednesday he gave his first interview as Counselor to the Treasury Secretary, on [Squawk on the Street](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh1-2FZdIt4Bkqz-2BHF4GnPnamDYm5z-2BlX5tTwHdl4vsx0BYlXmeIapDMhq1wef8I-2FtUTnH895ZmuFjtnctiKGiSc2x-2B7alSkPvlz4CB5QeiTmbQ-3D-3DX9l1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jYxAIuBDhMbVZ0iOndUa2HXTg-2Fj6ZybkBkGDU-2FWhyB52mwJQZ-2F2CcRWy0Sfw1mr19UGvLNgRyPdUxK4eCH893GvQ3ySZYe7BYYuK9SA-2FruwaC3aXemTStMJR9y3jKyM7M8Q-3D-3D). This is the closest thing to an insider view this week, and it should be read as the administration making its case.

**On why yields are up.** Oil. "Prior to the conflict in Iran, we were pushing 100 basis points lower than this. And since oil's basically gone from 60 to 100, we've gone the other way." He doesn't see "a big change in inflation expectations. It's much more about real rates," reflecting "a sort of demand for capital out there globally."

**On the Fed.** He thinks the Fed's tightening is a mistake. Growth is "driven by supply-side considerations," which makes it "a disinflationary growth story, not an inflationary growth story." He compared today's hawks to those who pushed Alan Greenspan to hike in 1997 before he "had to turn that around in '98." He added that Chairman Warsh "was very much in that camp. He seems to have backed away from that story a little bit. I'm not exactly sure why." *(A sitting Treasury official publicly second-guessing the Fed chair is worth noting on its own as a Fed-independence data point.)*

**On the bond market, the bigger news.** Asked if he'd counsel Bessent to use "a bigger bazooka" with the 30-year at fresh highs, Zervos said that's the secretary's call. But:

- Managing "the maturity structure of debt," which "has largely been a Fed focus through QE," is now "being taken back by the Treasury." That is "really where it belongs... with this fiscal policy, not monetary policy."
- "Supply matters," and its effect on yields "doesn't always happen immediately. It didn't happen when QE first started."
- Buying back "securities with $50 and $60 prices that we issued at par" (the face value, $100) is "a valiant quest and a valiant thing to do."

On the jobs front, Zervos said unemployment, which "spiked to as much as 4.4% a year ago," is "back down to 4.1%."

**Next buyback.** Barron noted the Treasury planned "another $6 billion buybacks in longer-term debt again tomorrow," meaning Thursday, October 1.

### The bear case for the long end: 6%

Several podcasts on Wednesday put 6% in play for long-term yields:

- **Felder:** a multi-year sideways pattern in the 10-year broke upward this year, and "simple technical analysis of that... pennant pattern suggests the 10-year yield's heading for 6%." Absent intervention, "it's not going to take too long to get there."
- **RBC Wealth Management's Rufaro Chiriseri,** relayed on [Bloomberg Daybreak](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJLW2dSRqc37XSOIppiJ2umQYftvtGJ-2F-2BoI-2BanCvOvQFoXIRoM9q4qLoGZcDbuPHI4sXuaTWqD4tZIaamQwNsGQw5RiyPWEQLpqZ4vRA7fMQ-3D-3D__Rb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY8DzaiWF0fBbw3KQXsKgYlX4xJ-2Bx3C7vH0O-2BRecwz-2BFpL-2FAYZOZcgLky-2FMnT96nlUyHBtnJFqqSqNmE2GFeYX-2BVInhuSAteROTT0V5Yd5X3uy8hOOCa6U5mDPzRU50E0sA-3D-3D) (Sep 30): "Six percent on the 30-year is not a level that seems to be wildly out of any possibility."
- **Schiff:** "by the November midterm elections, the 10-year will be 6% if the current trajectory continues," and 30-year mortgage rates, now "7.4%," will head to "8% probably by Election Day."
- **Kerr's danger zone:** not a level but a speed. If the 10-year goes "five and a half plus really, really quickly," then "start making a move towards six... That's what will spook the equity market."

Felder tied it to AI credit. He cited a Goldman Sachs figure of "something like $600 billion of total AI debt sold this year," and listed signs of strain: Oracle debt in "stressed territory," SoftBank selling debt "at junk yields for the first time last week," and Nvidia credit default swap spreads "up 100% this year." Hardy's daily credit check agreed on direction: junk bond spreads were "another 6 basis points" wider at **309**. *(Tuesday's issue had 303.)* He said they need "at least another 40 or so before it starts to look anything remotely resembling amber."

### De-dollarization: the case from an ally

The most direct reserve-currency discussion of the day came from Money Metals' "Dollar Club" episode ([Money Metals' Weekly Market Wrap](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMg84R4FwL6fB-2FlJdngdZ-2BlxiaIvYBoWwd9nuCZBk1rWbc8OQLqiIla0dmwnsBPRRfpzKxW0ILoyPHJAn3TREh0YQ-3D-3DOP4z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY9LT8KiRf60T5M3fkn6b9GPV1li9Xk8xmg82gspJm3sKsSN7ZwT88f6jQiQ-2FfENt0xmTAmMo-2BnT8S-2FprTESAN8dlitEI4Vq320Nea2QNALcQApOeXJSK1ZhsX7aLMQW0tA-3D-3D), Sep 30). Host Mike Meharry's argument rests on two quotes.

**From Bessent,** announcing plans to ground Iran's commercial airlines:

> *"If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system."*

Meharry noted the US has reportedly threatened secondary sanctions across "energy, shipping, precious metals, crypto, and even manufacturing."

**From Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney,** in a speech to the European Parliament: "financial mechanisms are being used for coercive purposes," with hints at Canada-Europe "payment systems that bypass those controlled by the U.S." In a New York Times interview, Carney said the world needs a "multipolar system that uses several reserve currencies," and added: "it's the fool me once, fool me twice point. Once you see that, then you start to think, how do I diversify away?"

Meharry's point: "We're not talking about China here or Russia or Iran... We're talking about Canada and Europe." He was careful not to overstate it. "I'm not here saying that the dollar is at imminent risk of falling off its perch... The dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry." But "just a little bit of de-dollarization is a problem. It's already a problem. We see it in the rising interest rates." *(Money Metals sells gold and silver; the episode ends with a sales pitch.)*

Kerr made a related point from a more neutral seat. After Russia's assets were frozen in 2022, central banks outside the West went "from basically less than 500 tons a year to now averaging well over 1,000 tons" of gold purchases. His lesson for the oil shock: the knock-on effects of geopolitical events "take time."

### Oil: more flowing through Hormuz, but no relief

Oil is the single biggest input to the yield story, per Zervos. Wednesday brought a detailed update from Rory Johnston of Commodity Context on [Facts vs Feelings](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgO0YbDes3BH7lO5gHQfqldHEqt7AqIebXnwAxqrUj-2FAS1lJ6KC9BCZKDdfl59pxwEDZ4525ci9larL1TD2irT54HAgrwkIMkETr0hwKZXiRA-3D-3DHVIi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jYyz0pPefH776E1UA7TXjPya0Bl3QrBGZbauu3syejp1TyvPTAh4UlFtjtr8awGdSvxus84AVdGWTp3CnXL1mbtLTUXtX6DuVTrR3kY-2B7rWnhQE6K4y7VTwiD9fh7koNQYQ-3D-3D) (recorded Sep 28, published Sep 30):

- **Flows are up.** About "13 and a half million barrels a day" now pass through the Strait of Hormuz, against "a pre-war normal of around 21 million." In March, non-Iranian flows were "functionally zero."
- **Iran is "gradually losing control.** It is not lost control entirely."
- **But it's costly.** Supertanker rates hit "one point two million dollars a day," or "around twenty five dollars a barrel just for shipping," against a normal "two dollars a barrel." Iraq offered "30 to 50 dollar a barrel discounts" to get buyers to load in Basra.
- **Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline** was hit "two and a half weeks ago," reportedly by Iranian proxies in Iraq. It is "now back up and flowing about half capacity."

"If Trump was really winning the war... we would see 20 million barrels a day going through Hormuz and the cost of those barrels would be in single digit dollars," Johnston said. "I'm really more of a Hormuz half empty kind of guy."

Hardy added a market detail: the November Brent contract is "at $103-something," while December trades "just above $97." "That's a pretty big cliff and just shows how tight the market is for prompt crude." On Bloomberg Daybreak, Brent was $103.64 and WTI was $90.23 early Wednesday. *(InvestTalk reported WTI settled down 3.5% on hopes of a Middle East deal, while noting Iranian officials remained skeptical.)*

## The debate

**Is the bond sell-off a growth story or a debt story? It matters for which way the dollar breaks.**

*The "it's growth and capital demand" side.* Zervos, the administration's voice, says higher yields reflect real demand to borrow and invest, plus a temporary oil shock. Miskin of John Hancock sees value: "you can get about a 6% yield in the intermediate part of the curve... We're at 20-year high yields and no one wants them." He thinks growth is near a peak and that "yields are lower into next year." Fidelity's James Durant, on [Fidelity Answers](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjRdqHudvh3fE31NHIy1eYHMU1RIW7BHy7-2FbUpF0Ys-2FR5Gs-2FjKGFpt71JnYejgeHQKbc3kbeR8tJO-2Bk0ohxhULY4wPa5paLkIVg5oy9CYj3Kw-3D-3D8p8W_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY-2BGtZ2JoOXMieV2WNzQgci6WZvKSCVB6P3KMbY5Rf-2Fm7gNUrmhjwSZEVXUo4Cm3RPlbVUmFCehRGXvuNSXQ4Mc4eCGOcRRJujdIPtpXJpVZ1EVoY0MBV4cNG0FlWDuY2bg-3D-3D) (Sep 30), said "we're sort of closer to the end than the beginning... of the duration bear market," though he doesn't yet have "the conviction to... have a long bond view." His colleague Tim Foster called the move "really quite traditional," driven by growth and inflation.

*The "it's debt and credibility" side.* Felder argues that if a slowdown comes, the deficit goes "from 6 to what?... 7, 8% of GDP, 9, 10%," so "the supply of treasuries is actually going to explode higher... right at the wrong time." That ends with the Fed forced back into buying long bonds, "very, very bullish for the gold price." Schiff calls it "the worst of all possible worlds," with high debt and high rates together. Meharry ties part of it to de-dollarization.

*Where it leaves the dollar.* If the growth camp is right, US yields stay high for good reasons and the dollar holds its range. If the debt camp is right, the endgame is what Nordvik described: a central bank backstop that finally makes "the currencies react," and, by Felder's and Schiff's logic, a weaker dollar and stronger gold. Note that Felder, Schiff and Meharry all have gold-related businesses or audiences. Zervos works for the Treasury.

**Will the commodity shock fade fast or slowly?**

A guest on [Wealthion](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhsg0Nk12qqvVsaH-2B4hY0Cf8eK1iYn5-2FeL08N2Z5lNv7BikATayFI4UXB0bgpRrQzJihSMe7jfwrKfUwHJBWhj3qjtQBt1TP6PUsppe34ATXQ-3D-3DsGk1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY-2F35zNw1kSIo1TnNM1kV8J5h2D0OaWg-2B1cetcCJPeX8w6HWt5FsTASxu2nVnI4NMhcoOD20fdX7X2uX4-2BgcNRihwELkXaMgfmg1yXERqSxjguASNJSrLEuhxw8S3gVZ0Yw-3D-3D) (Sep 30), a longtime gold bull introduced as Mike who "stopped this year" being bullish, argued for a fast fade. Diesel's one-year jump "looks very similar to $4 a gallon gasoline in 2008," which was "$2" by year end. The US is "the world's largest energy producer," and the administration "has a vested interest in prices going lower" before the midterms. He thinks oil goes back toward its US "cost of production... $55 a barrel." He also called the Fed "priced for 4 hikes," which he called overdone, and said only a stock drop or an oil collapse stops it.

Kerr took the slow view. "The longer we're at these levels, it becomes harder and harder for the markets to ignore," especially diesel. Johnston's numbers back the slow view: even with flows recovering, shipping and insurance costs keep effective prices high.

## The trades in play

- **Sit in the middle of the curve.** Miskin: "about a 6% yield in the intermediate part of the curve" is "really attractive," and "if you can lock in these yields, I think that's going to be pretty attractive" ([Bloomberg Surveillance TV](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhyk3OMicXKuEum0h4JqRZnh0cTFKxRJzgO3Tzg1RQOTxb00hopZMVOGn7sURlTkjDHTedZAvT8e9vdkPUjYP2-2FW4aj53gQe6racDKb6RLmng-3D-3DKGS3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jYwymYP4Cb1ggpcYVt3EceuzmtlJXg6-2Fwvub6-2FrmAJTeFv2g-2BcCZ-2Bupdsma1Q4P8GE873ELacTNoql2hnisSYv9mnlvQYxl-2B6lnHbE4nc8aFwD2wyBWeYT900CgveCTflyA-3D-3D)). In stocks he favors "quality value," healthcare and industrials, and calls this "the rate shock quarter."
- **Stay short-dated for now.** Fidelity's Durant isn't buying long bonds yet; Foster says most client interest "still is in the sort of shorter dated products" ([Fidelity Answers](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjRdqHudvh3fE31NHIy1eYHMU1RIW7BHy7-2FbUpF0Ys-2FR5Gs-2FjKGFpt71JnYejgeHQKbc3kbeR8tJO-2Bk0ohxhULY4wPa5paLkIVg5oy9CYj3Kw-3D-3DO7iA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY801Bp2LCMZgi6SW1TrVGT1h-2Fs8cM9Qbws-2Bo505saC1Fct2cAE1mMzNgwAtSzIhtRO5uoq4dCjsMt62uri3Agc5ziATPyoS-2FfQZns17GhhmqJMiooL4K8Sv0CZgkPkhMpw-3D-3D)).
- **Gold: wait for the break.** Felder says rising real yields are "a serious headwind" for gold "for a period of time," and the turn comes when "something is breaking," perhaps "a few months away" ([Soar Financially](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0JF0oogKtjVRFohsWtsbVwOS4BIvTj0RUzvUcbCjQvf6gOJ0pRgBa95KtmVwQydT9riy5hhrZBdQ710TGGmWFFOR0BGvEIFX2fR7h34kwpw-3D-3DGRCJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY0p6oksSp4ElowzXyBhRjrmX3eVyaI5mfBpDgSrkkCzMg1lt3Jewbn6OXhf4OzQBO-2Bpt-2BMeFuVcvM21PHhy8gwXLLv8q9zYqPYBnwaDgKXWtZOowcsnIP0wQDVg40g-2BWCA-3D-3D)). Schiff, by contrast, says buy the dip now, with "$4,000" as support; he had gold at "$4,180" on Wednesday.
- **Watch the dollar index lines.** Kerr's 95 and 105 to 110 levels are the triggers he says would end the low-volatility regime ([Money Life](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjgqgR7syAQqCDqVO-2BIbFze9mzWMzVBKAyrqZ2geOC5zR2M8kGGoNJa-2Fqnzm9fVfYdI6bWBDxXeO9cHljLj3xzfUYnUVnt1RkQvdRcDYwKJTA-3D-3DEIQ4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbVs-2BAVgHWmTytWYoQkB0zYlQfn4iL4a3PCofSI42A1jY8Z9dXy8i-2FFx-2FKZcNCBsc5Y0-2FzeqGNUD1txrbZlhh4CWEGHtk3wSFoG-2FcI5SCC0pEVFr3gcOhnJsrlOuXVQXx4ipkC-2Fbf6VoFBW-2BHYqnEbG1ksC3hGaGWuS4GjQGKVU4Rw-3D-3D)).

## Read-throughs

- **Sterling held up through a big political speech.** UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham gave a speech Hardy called one "that will be remembered for a long time," declaring a shift toward the state "directing energy policy, water policy, housing policy" and a new social care system that "looks like a budget buster." Yet "there was actually reasonable sterling firmness." The market's verdict so far: "let's just see."
- **Consumer confidence was even weaker than the headline.** Hardy noted the August "present situation" reading was revised down from "121+ to 117.2," and September came in at "109.3." The expectations index fell to 63.6, the lowest since March 2013 if you set aside one month around the 2025 tariff shock. Job openings were "under 7.1 million," the weakest in eight months.
- **A Treasury official is openly disagreeing with the Fed.** Zervos called pre-emptive tightening "fraught with some disaster." With the midterms five weeks away, expect more of this.
- **Even the UK is buying Treasuries.** A roughly $100 billion rise in UK-held Treasuries in a year (likely including funds managed from London) is a useful counterweight to the "foreigners are fleeing" story.
- **Rate shocks hit Main Street too.** Grain Markets' Joe Vaclavik said farmers holding unsold grain on an 8% operating loan face "a hidden cost of 3, 4, 5, 6 cents per bushel per month." Brazil's farmers face "drastically higher interest rates."

## What changed since Wednesday's issue

- **The euro hit a fresh low, then bounced.** It dipped below 1.1325, its weakest since May 2025, then recovered after Williams spoke.
- **October hike odds fell** to 35% from 47% after PCE, with December still at 88%.
- **The 30-year set another 22-year high,** with the 10-year near 5.27%, close to the 2007 peak of 5.32%.
- **Zervos went on the record** as Counselor to the Treasury Secretary.
- **Junk bond spreads widened** to 309 basis points from 303.
- **Gold bounced slightly,** to about $4,180, after a two-day drop of about $100.
- **Second-quarter GDP was revised up** to 2.2% from 1.5%.

---

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