# Gold Slips and Miners Sink as Treasury Yields Hit New Highs - Gold & the Debasement Trade - Week of October 1, 2026

> Gold & the Debasement Trade for the week ending Thursday, October 1, 2026. Podcast synthesis on gold slipping 2.3% while gold miners and royalty companies fell two to three times as hard, as long-term Treasury yields hit new multi-decade highs, and the split between guests who see rising yields as a headwind for gold and those who see them as the eventual trigger for a much higher price.

## Gold & the Debasement Trade

### Week of October 1, 2026: Gold Slips and Miners Sink as Treasury Yields Hit New Highs

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*Bonds Break Higher, Gold Bends, Miners Finally Crack. Issue of Thursday, October 1, 2026. Covers podcasts published September 24 – October 1.*

## The week in one paragraph

US long-term interest rates hit new multi-decade highs for a second week running. Gold gave ground, but slowly. The surprise was the mining shares. For weeks, podcast guests had pointed to miners "holding up better than the metal" as proof that big money was quietly moving in. This week that story broke down. Gold fell about **2.3%** over the week. The big gold-miner fund GDX fell **6.1%**, and the royalty companies did worse still: Franco-Nevada was down **9.3%**. So the central question on this week's podcasts was the old one, asked more urgently: **are rising bond yields bad for gold, or are they the very thing that eventually sends it much higher?** The guests split cleanly, and both sides are below.

## The numbers (Thursday Sept 24 close to Thursday Oct 1 close)

| What | Sept 24 | Oct 1 | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Gold, spot ($/oz) | $4,273.80 | $4,177.39 | **-2.3%** (week low $4,110.87) |
| Silver, spot ($/oz) | $63.65 | $60.80 | **-4.5%** |
| GLD (gold fund) | $391.69 | $382.76 | -2.3% |
| SLV (silver fund) | $57.62 | $55.02 | -4.5% |
| GDX (large gold miners) | $92.35 | $86.74 | **-6.1%** |
| GDXJ (junior gold miners) | $119.83 | $112.46 | -6.2% |
| SIL (silver miners) | $90.96 | $85.63 | -5.9% |
| Newmont (NEM) | $121.30 | $114.67 | -5.5% |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | $193.88 | $180.59 | -6.9% |
| Barrick (B) | $42.32 | $40.10 | -5.3% |
| Franco-Nevada (FNV) | $259.89 | $235.79 | **-9.3%** |
| Wheaton Precious (WPM) | $143.88 | $133.42 | -7.3% |
| Royal Gold (RGLD) | $252.49 | $232.33 | -8.0% |
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) | $47.51 | $44.98 | -5.3% |
| PPLT (platinum fund) | $15.90 | $15.51 | -2.5% |
| PALL (palladium fund) | $23.00 | $21.47 | -6.7% |
| TLT (long-term Treasury bond fund) | $79.42 | $77.71 | -2.2% (bond prices down = yields up) |
| UUP (US dollar fund) | $28.69 | $28.96 | +0.9% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.16% | 5.24% | +8 basis points (week high 5.34%) |

*Market data: FactSet closing prices. A "basis point" is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 8 basis points is 0.08%.*

Three things stand out:

- **Miners fell roughly 2.5 to 3 times as much as gold.** That is the normal "leverage" of mining shares to the metal, working in reverse. It also cuts against the view, heard on several podcasts recorded early in the week, that miners were holding up unusually well.
- **The royalty and streaming companies were the weakest group.** These are firms that pay money upfront in return for a cut of a mine's future output. They are usually the steadiest way to own the sector. Franco-Nevada's drop also came alongside news about its biggest growth asset (more in the miners section).
- **Bond yields rose and the dollar firmed at the same time.** As you'll see, that pairing is the heart of this week's debate.

## The big debate: do higher yields hurt gold or help it?

### First, what's actually happening in bonds

The size of the move is worth spelling out. On **The Peter Schiff Show (Sept 30)**, Schiff reported that the 30-year Treasury yield "got as high as 5.62%" before settling at 5.59%, and the 10-year hit 5.29% before closing at 5.26%. He added: "It was just two weeks ago yesterday that the 10-year yield hit 5%… we're up 25 basis points in two weeks." ([The Peter Schiff Show, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjSXcyeayvOnq-2BD-2FsUEv8Cgp-2FJIbgHkKPvinHQ-2B0bLcLzN3qMN-2FY45q6YIuTnEVoenRdAe4ySLCLmNLgg62IhIzmEt4ljxDORB5iVvNb93-2F4A-3D-3Do2QI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5uCMD7C4EPaHGqkyLIdDdg3hT7pZIUqLRumtW4jBv1cloR83kk4cdx4TPVFQ-2BenNN7PS9pjSuvPJp-2F-2FPnfDPDeX7tO-2FGQUFrGetaypG5Xq0AM1BwLSMigz84b-2BPpdbqhu-2FbK2x8JtnySPr5xLSa6LgY-3D)) Three days earlier he put the 10-year close at 5.16% and the 30-year at 5.49% ([The Peter Schiff Show, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhEJgWOCht2P9WrtXjuh2u9AtcFpNNyyDQeuHcT0kIUCCm9S0W0FCJWeKmqy7LJn4O5jiwf30dFfilVSNhTr9h9A5wyhywap1eUjkIDaMJahg-3D-3DlF0A_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5nzC14JEPT6GRyUkG8WcuTuQtK8hmDxuendkauELm2pIZHyOy4gaCE8tSgRtXfgAJ5DF1kuGnQTw9M8qsNOkgzi0CgXGR35Nc3ydOUm7Pu6gQyuvEtae-2FXWN7m47P89UQyZO4XY72JxtRSt2DiN-2FGVc-3D)).

On **WSJ's Take On the Week (Sept 27)**, Bank of America's Megan Swiber said the 10-year reaching 5%, its highest since 2007, was mostly about expectations of more Fed rate hikes, with inflation above the Fed's 2% target "for five-plus years." Oil prices, heavy corporate bond issuance competing with Treasuries, and investors demanding more pay for holding long-dated bonds all added to it. She put the Fed's policy rate at just under 4%. ([WSJ's Take On the Week, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhg3RcTiR3xz5R481WQpSa-2Fn5hB0x0-2FhCEEEu5RIXToMqAqnwkeBptLqyBeSOzkhGQEZ4rEpP6Rs-2BVo5zjxTFOlH4wPNpcL3632N-2BSCmpE82w-3D-3DU3y1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5lodo3TxrLBmFOiRPs5LMrgapi5ZQqrmdaLYvCuMgmD34CwrP5jxQ1XkNDj35sapdd4g0zgFTnGzKPruI33R-2FpcYF0fHHnBcpcN2vCWxUQBfSJig5jxVVtEKrdim-2FgYTGFT5NweOUq7DSUC6wNXuw5g-3D))

The most useful explanation came from economist **David Rosenberg on MacroVoices #552 (Oct 1)**. He argued that about 90% of the 10-year yield's rise of more than 100 basis points since February is **real rates** (interest rates after inflation), with only about 10% coming from higher inflation expectations. He named two causes:

- **The AI spending boom is now borrowed money.** "Three of the biggest of the four [hyperscalers] are now net free cash flow negative. So they're going to the bond market… corporate credit demands bumping against government credit demands." (Hyperscalers are the giant cloud companies building AI data centers.)
- **"Regime change at the Fed."** Rosenberg said that "if Powell were still in charge, most of this… would not be happening." Markets swung from pricing one or two cuts in February to pricing "three or four more tightenings." He also noted that "whenever Warsh opens his mouth, the 10-year yield goes up six or seven basis points."

He was openly skeptical of the "debt crisis" framing. When the 10-year was last below 4% in February, he said, the national debt was already $39 trillion; at $40 trillion, "because it's a zero, everybody's talking about it." ([MacroVoices #552, Oct 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj45unsX4lYI9kCMVKuCi8YEUL3kkjq0t9YCYd1AAoBXbVqE3tnJjWaGPHPGO8dcnLW-2Bs8c8vt4t1Q70F45uy3fktXULkEsZ37mm939ITbY4w-3D-3DOWPu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5qfQ0Czl1GKGDmAWBPPKerxhvWtBY-2F3wkWuDrjbIDOfXnZkJLXN2W-2B1mr5nqUe9TeuU7qxof6OApJVprlqCPF4gtaBcw2sd-2BGNW1uABMPI6oRze3i9mMTom1dDvD9SoRYKRslr9dQ-2FDxbUYFD0N9P3w-3D))

That matters for gold. Real rates are the thing that most reliably weighs on it, because gold pays no interest. When safe bonds pay you well above inflation, holding gold costs more.

### The case that higher yields are bad for gold, for now

- **Jesse Felder (Soar Financially, Sept 30)** put it most simply: "Gold reacts to real interest rates, the trend in real interest rates… Real interest rates are rising as they are today, and that's a serious headwind." He thinks gold stays in "a continued kind of corrective phase" until "something in the economy is going to break", possibly the AI bubble, and he is "maybe at least a few months away from that." ([Soar Financially, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0JF0oogKtjVRFohsWtsbVwOS4BIvTj0RUzvUcbCjQvf6gOJ0pRgBa95KtmVwQydT9riy5hhrZBdQ710TGGmWFFOR0BGvEIFX2fR7h34kwpw-3D-3DlC73_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5schJD5tM6wHwhi-2FxHpgAL21bMMPkDUkbj91lEthWPNO2-2Fi7y3t9czODoC3qD9x8-2BGEZ4PyB3oCHHFalLHE4601vDxsD6Vlrg06aWMRW1jfZ3ufWKzfgNpl-2Bx5yd3vWCjFrwdiZufPdciDmxmzf2T5E-3D))
- **Jeff Christian of CPM Group (The KE Report, Sept 29)**, a long-time precious-metals researcher, explained the mechanics. Much of the money in commodities is run by computers that compare everything to Treasury rates. When rates tick up, "all those computers say… gold prices have to be lower." He also pushed back on the "everyone is fleeing the dollar" story. In a world of high debt everywhere, investors still treat Treasuries as the safest place to be. He said a record $9 trillion of Treasuries is held by foreign and offshore investors, and auction demand is "right there in the norm." The dollar's share of central-bank currency reserves has slipped only from about 60% to 57–58%. ([The KE Report, Sept 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjothTUAv-2BOqyYLIQyj242i9wqwEX72soHJpirxP377DBSCH0EYcyDtCcAEeciobtLux45vakZ-2F-2BcBnAuu-2F7LhJDReGxZ6WqUYNm7-2FKu1-2FD6Q-3D-3De8q0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5tGCtyMTDUpy-2FUo9XHBkH3G33E98CYlQShBKwHX0Zmiz5EJzrm0HBfF9II9PIzdni-2Bfj-2BAeSGX5XT3kT9wzNcOOLB-2BMa7PBm8vXzUWFqhDjqkSPgnMqk3s9-2FFOwQ2dsPVOKryR7-2BcL0V5Ayx-2Bmmp0ZE-3D))
- **Rick Rule (Michael Campbell's Money Talks, Sept 25)**, the veteran resource investor, was frank about the short term: "higher US interest rates in the near term would probably cause the gold price in US dollar terms to deteriorate." His reasoning: higher US yields pull money into the US, the dollar strengthens, and anything priced in dollars falls. He welcomes it: "I save in gold and I buy gold periodically, and I would rather pay less than more." ([Michael Campbell's Money Talks, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVWIzNk5eCCnW3sfGLSus-2Bh0vHTueIX4rb0hyGKioqAipYqUOOwLpRC3sUp4zSbYWVKM7eBDcs3Rmg3fOEKlTUdyKcW0Ivv5m9pvaKdDcIJg-3D-3DaLsj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5lLxThCe8PWfjIW18HWFBNi8-2BWRD-2F6BZI7l2OMhSP940T-2BocpNN-2FpJ4mENip1kpjvmpjqEJrYjGtLjCnpodZzE9y3zEwvZ8m0YcGnTL55BGQURTNLiYTbK3Fl7n7seBrRJyD9Na-2FNOgI9lGzumhKBVE-3D))

### The case that higher yields will end up bullish

- **Dave Collum (BTC Sessions, Sept 29)**, the Cornell chemist and long-time market commentator, argued that the "rates up, gold down" rule is a leftover from a 40-year era of falling rates that "is now over." "You seem to have forgotten an entire decade of the 70s… To the extent that gold responds to an inflation risk and interest rates should respond to an inflation risk, they should correlate, not inversely correlate." He thinks the old relationship "will break down and the direct correlation will kick in at some point." ([BTC Sessions, Sept 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2B0GsexsdetjucCiVuJWLYDYvkvRxiIoyShjSpV-2BzD5DzFUC9jzog2p7Xw-2FWMPF-2B3n6PYUPeYjnHc5P09SNkGzpjMVv8loNK92ajOad4Cxbw-3D-3DXQjz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5ilsFiQJlMlf-2Fr5pEyw-2BY-2FOtutKwf3snGiyN7rZd7YzEIG-2BdXu2H4HI-2FguOj258w2Y2z87o5DEJ2oTB4iBjtpmMc40Q-2FWnk75eT9NXq2VomkCL0xxOBjagkMPWxm4LDfbrc2SMPGx2hGLPh9C2yeOAs-3D))
- **Rick Rule** made the same historical point on the same show: "In the decade of the 1970s, the gold price went up 26-fold, and the US 10-year Treasury went up 4-fold. If the reason that the interest rates go up is because savers demand higher yield… to accommodate the deterioration of the purchasing power of the dollar, gold will do very well." His 10-year view is that the dollar loses "70 or 75%" of its purchasing power and gold rises "threefold or fourfold." ([Michael Campbell's Money Talks, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVWIzNk5eCCnW3sfGLSus-2Bh0vHTueIX4rb0hyGKioqAipYqUOOwLpRC3sUp4zSbYWVKM7eBDcs3Rmg3fOEKlTUdyKcW0Ivv5m9pvaKdDcIJg-3D-3DdR3L_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5gA3RYm1JAL5oi3Gzp9WvZqPaltAXM8Sx8djG-2BqZO-2Fu2Fm5QLsyYhh5TAvMWTQ0EWdohWgcvRyyIYSIMS8SLVy-2F23ZP7CfhzU1P9dHwWQ3G53M-2F5khcMEEpxTuOy1xWDODIsv-2FSU409tcqSGEK6aYSE-3D))
- **Peter Schiff (Sept 30)** made the bluntest version: "The markets were wrong, again, to assume that these rising bond yields are bearish for gold and silver. They're not. They're actually bullish… if you're losing money in bonds… what are you going to buy? You're going to buy gold." He called $4,000 the support level for gold and around $60 for silver. ([The Peter Schiff Show, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjSXcyeayvOnq-2BD-2FsUEv8Cgp-2FJIbgHkKPvinHQ-2B0bLcLzN3qMN-2FY45q6YIuTnEVoenRdAe4ySLCLmNLgg62IhIzmEt4ljxDORB5iVvNb93-2F4A-3D-3DeeP9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5ghHurU-2BxZvj5gkGnnuwXwtAUubmhqNp2vDhw7sLwzxNJgIa1D4ssi4sUD35XFOR21JceWJLS55eVNzLCwI0wBilgY1UFhfXurUylnOpkcfHV7o2K076aSSJMLPW70VPj-2F0VBs1-2Ftu2rsCjG1ntQpFo-3D))

### The bridge between the two camps: "yield curve control"

Several guests described the same chain of events. Higher yields make the government's debt more expensive to carry. That eventually forces the Treasury and the Fed to buy bonds to cap yields (known as "yield curve control" or quantitative easing, meaning the central bank creates money to buy bonds). And that, they argue, is the moment gold takes off.

- The Treasury is already making small moves. **Money Metals' Weekly Market Wrap (Sept 25)** reported a second expanded **$6 billion buyback** of older long-term bonds in two weeks. Yields dipped and "started climbing again within an hour," and the 30-year reached about 5.42% before Thursday's operation. ([Money Metals' Weekly Market Wrap, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgOxWLu1JnVBZwhmJDkgs9C-2Bb4NGu6Zy7wQqUW6kMSOxUMzJWHwYP0KUTgcCNydSbNy6yqOMItd7uws4n2wmF4QBO-2B9F4jGSCahx4lWpDlGKA-3D-3DjoVh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5mV0lbr3TlkR1sqaS6AmMQli4WbfnQ2KyWOVH1s3MVZIXSrL7T3ZP42YYbICj8uI2mCc6WEa-2Bkm-2BSXsqVw-2FHXnCPNKMQD9wmsZz3gIQjc671GDS3OacKH6E-2FGQgUvV6PCNiEz-2F1msOEJbRd39iCw0bg-3D))
- A trader on **Forward Guidance's weekly roundup (Sept 25)** said Treasury "was ready to buy 6 billion and he only bought 4 billion," which "just put fuel into the fire." Another guest doubted Bessent "has the gunpowder": "You're going to buy 10 billion, but you're going to do a half a trillion in issuance." ([Forward Guidance, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjp98HLo1lM2IwvP3naAKAhjF7rFCivTMWDhw7mq-2BPtk-2FYeXtTrTvEcJDRoEoyB3-2BCrMSIK5-2B3ZSUc6txglw8p6IBXnsl1nr-2BhFwJK84aAkMA-3D-3DA8y-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5moLEff5-2F3bJG8XJoo-2BPeG2X6ZTwL0mMO6DGsH07yp9NG8AB3dLLGieRu6gaUC-2BtwN8vUR31CAn60J-2F2VCVFpOOEOBs8Ix1P3RaV5TSnDmghyIwg34xYv5EI16QZrXvSJKSWLHwPg5-2BOqaQd78gQdGk-3D))
- **Clive Thompson (Commodity Culture, Sept 25)** had thought 5.3% on the 30-year was "probably the most the USA would find acceptable"; it was already 5.43% when he spoke. He expects the Fed to wait for the next rate hike and then, if yields keep rising, step in with bond buying, which "would be highly bullish for gold and silver." ([Commodity Culture, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhHiAbHsl-2B56T3dqmBiYJGxeG6rcK6roXBYevLuMH2QjUaHliV0iXzxgBwYvXodX9-2FOaDpyI9JdeA4zLP-2Fk7JxyNozebma31BZ90YGsj-2FcFmQ-3D-3D0Gjj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5jk-2FVoNfSe06m0KE0xMIa2Fo62fpzWSSovtVj0kEuN-2BQCsm2Aljikaa1eL-2Fbqd3D6nLPndG9UYKSSfa-2Fs2TYGovL4EpZViUpalPzTBhpMr6JpWnxN2XaDzfRR-2BO2TC6G1tbpiKLEjrkPqELXiWJtNBM-3D))
- **Felder** described the same end-game as "the ideal bull case for gold": if inflation is still a problem and "the long end is running away from the Fed and they're forced to kind of intervene… that's how you get gold… from whatever, $4,000 an ounce to $7,000, $8,000, $9,000 an ounce pretty, pretty quickly." ([Soar Financially, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0JF0oogKtjVRFohsWtsbVwOS4BIvTj0RUzvUcbCjQvf6gOJ0pRgBa95KtmVwQydT9riy5hhrZBdQ710TGGmWFFOR0BGvEIFX2fR7h34kwpw-3D-3DO6th_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5iA7ibxsGl3mKW5NqpXNDyljGvk-2F2KwAkHmBIQY29577ll9X0l98v0-2B55Bwa44-2BuLqq7G6l4459diRliRUPZTcXfCAU-2BEWzrbJyxy-2F3ZYTX3YO5nIIytCnnRnCJqStSXuCW9xexVQ-2F4bzuJx-2FqHyegA-3D))

**The honest takeaway:** both camps agree on the short term. Rising real rates and a firm dollar are a headwind right now, and the price action this week bears that out. They disagree only on what comes after. The bulls are betting on a policy U-turn that hasn't happened yet.

## Operators and insiders: what the people with money at stake said

*These are fund managers, traders and company executives who manage capital in the sector or run mining businesses. Commentators and forecasters come in the next section.*

### Rick Rule: the M&A wave is the opportunity

On **Palisades Gold Radio (Sept 25)**, Rule called the sector a long-term opportunity but warned that miners "outperform it both ways. When the gold price falls, the miners fall more." This week proved him right. His main idea is a coming step-up in takeovers, for a simple reason: the big producers "are producing more ounces than they can replace," and since "they haven't invested in exploration for 15 years," they must "buy ounces as opposed to find those ounces." He described three kinds of deals:

- **Strategic.** His example is Agnico Eagle in Quebec's Abitibi region. A million-ounce deposit that could never pay for its own mill becomes "hugely accretive" (meaning it adds value per share) if it sits "within 50 kilometers of one of your mills," with new roads and grid power.
- **Tactical.** He pointed to Equinox's acquisitions of Calibre and then Orla. They added no operating advantage, but they quickly built Equinox's pipeline and got it into stock-index ETFs, "which is to say that people's pension funds, unbeknownst to the people, are buying Equinox every two weeks."
- **Removing the "single-asset discount."** One-mine companies trade cheap because "if something goes wrong with a single asset, your cash flow goes to cash flow heaven." Buying them into a bigger company erases that discount.

He also has a list of conditions under which he would sell gold. The US would need a balanced budget, a political deal to start reducing the debt, a fix for "$120 trillion in unfunded entitlement liabilities", and a 10-year Treasury yielding "a 9 or a 10 or an 11 handle." His advice for owning juniors: "work, patience, and tenacity." His back-test of his own 40-year record found the typical ten-fold winner took "five or six years" and almost every one dropped 50% at some point along the way. ([Palisades Gold Radio, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhDQwdTcUZON4NhrUqq7-2BWiHtuNcBjH2r-2BCeQC-2FzzX7KVvYiisOD0HziuIdRPPfRL8xklv95DNsEafDH4LV9amflR7J8ejHLVDNt-2F-2F-2Brt8AHg-3D-3DSdmy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5reaJc2ivAUFwru94mWdNsXNSi1PxbJPvcIf47q7aO0RK9qDRk5wuwKe32YaQF6FiURvHzv1psPaISzEaoZSfZBywi8ixFS3Oy5vtAUhbFCTVmaFRW5eoERvn58BwoRgBBqLI5FyYnrayPbutRlfhsQ-3D))

### Michael Oliver: "We're at the beginning of something"

Oliver is a technical analyst with 50 years in markets. On **Sprott Money News (Sept 30)** he made the boldest bull case of the week. His key evidence is that "big asset managers" are moving into miners first through the blue chips: "Newmont and Wheaton. They drove them back to their highs. In fact, Newmont made a marginal new high… Gold didn't go back to the high. Even GDX did not get back." Fund managers who "can't buy bullion" because of their mandates have to buy miners, "and so naturally they gravitate toward the biggies."

His historical comparison is 2008. Silver then fell about 50% over about eight months while gold fell roughly 30%. After the October 2008 low, gold tripled and silver went from "$11, $12 to $50." He says we are about eight months into a similar pullback now. If gold repeats the eight-fold gains of its 1970s and 2001–2011 bull markets, "gold would be between $8,000 and $9,000." On silver, a ten-fold move matching its old "$5 to $50" range implies "$500 silver… now I'm not predicting $500." His bottom line: "Gold going up is merely an expression of the collapsing real value of money."

*Reality check:* Newmont fell 5.5% and Wheaton 7.3% this week, so the "big money is buying" signal was tested hard right after he spoke. ([Sprott Money News, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6FxHdSdKoE-2FpzQA2M5R-2Fg9llXH4TYJi-2BYlcyfOwbjoqyHXTTqwAcey00-2BNgrBLKgntUbJ3gVvNayGvMMtv7vhAt1dkJsWXC8XBWqewGBwOA-3D-3Dw9yg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5r-2F0hYERHm8SO04KW-2BASs0vAl4hXfNTfOM4pUrDZqIaqbe1OamTpwYKz4sb9TwruL1ygUdVxXXmvHcbwIinpO5-2Fm-2B8MSzBUKOwV5DJgG2eysF-2FwSpXNK8HgZnrw2C6vuwjHZJGZ344s115De21LqAjE-3D))

### Dave Erfle: watch $4,100, then $3,950–$4,000

Erfle runs the Junior Miner Junkie newsletter. On **The KE Report (Sept 29)** he blamed the pullback on three things:

- The US rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal, which "driven Brent crude back up towards $110 a barrel."
- Futures markets now price "like a 70% chance that they're going to hike again in October… and then I think a 60% chance that they're going to hike again."
- **China's Golden Week holiday.** Combined with the Mid-Autumn festival, many Chinese buyers are out for "a 13 day break," and "a lot of Chinese buying has… kept the gold price elevated."

He uses 2015 as his template: "Gold always goes down into the first Fed rate hike… They raised rates and about two, three weeks later, gold started to go up." With "4,200… lost," the level to watch is $4,100. Below that, he sees "a double bottom around that 39, 50, 4,000 level." For the miner funds, his downside targets were 85 on GDX and 110 on GDXJ, then possibly 80 and about 100. On Thursday GDX closed at $86.74, so it has nearly reached his first level.

He also described the Beaver Creek mining conference. Attendance rose from about 1,200 last year to **1,700** this year. "Everybody's cashed up," and many juniors now want to build their own mines rather than sell. His filter for juniors: "district scale," "top tier management," and a project that can be "over 5 million ounces in high margin." ([The KE Report, Sept 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhf06dMB0uOU9YqYOOaMlFYbXm3lWzkI7E2o6xBqcFk-2BiVe-2BaEw4oX9aMAWDHokgNZj-2FxDprgGiYtUFq-2F0QAPoUXezmYyF1TaKvtnCyqKsp5g-3D-3DkTEA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5u7tDH-2FzIGaarbSDJ-2BeTPaosS3FoRfNqe6h9O3RgKCpZQxQxXn3S67rEDebcxa4JOWgTNCUKeqJLVGvGvBZ8dytqajbSiP0r1dGqFrxdCUmSvsF-2BdVwXuBrUxX9grWNXCNGBx5qWlkmz1nJcDriNdoc-3D))

### Craig Hemke: the shift in rate expectations explains the drop

Hemke runs the TF Metals Report. On **The KE Report (Sept 28)** he gave the cleanest account of why September went wrong. Right before Jackson Hole about a month earlier, "there was a 60% chance that the Fed was not going to hike at all this year. And now… there is a 5% chance that there won't be any more." The 30-year is at "23-year highs" and the 2-year is "closing in on 5%," so "the dollar has rallied and the metals have gone down." He said gold was "$500 off its highs and down 10% this month," and he put the 30-year at 5.55%, up from 5.35% in August when the Treasury first announced its bond support.

He thinks the Fed's hike may be a mistake: "No amount of Fed funds rate hikes is going to get an extra barrel of oil through the Strait of Hormuz." He also put the year in perspective. Gold ended 2025 at about $4,325 (after +63% in 2025 and +25% in 2024) and was about $4,135 when he spoke, roughly 5% down for the year. "Gold could wrap up the year only down 5%… That'd be a pretty good deal."

His case for the miners is about profits. Gold averaged roughly $4,000 in July and $4,500 in August, "so let's call it 4,300" for Q3, about the same as Q2. Energy costs were "a little higher at the margin." So the Q3 results due in about a month are "not going to be that bad." For silver, he wants to see it hold above $48. Silver hit $48 in 1979 and 2011 and collapsed both times; this time it has stayed above that level "for almost a full year." ([The KE Report, Sept 28](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbfiaYa6u5v5gXg-2FnJN-2B2yluKJK7BPY62kewGQ90IdieVG6aHTiUyrCnB2qO74SeD9J3oF1E4EP-2B-2Fn9EE0mpaHa7kzYg-2FPXfij9lNCXKzEsA-3D-3Dr_dM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5hDu30HaWZ9L6xRKnLqixel4LM1SeQZMbZ3kIGgIU1456BoN-2BTyPh183cjhDYk2Xwn-2BswapaBr44xwQYz7nKL-2BPrfDTRdDBA04YyiiElAsljMqqfrP410n9wfnJbGxEio-2FIfJQnZQL1ohf2UhkhJdoI-3D))

### The KE Report hosts: buy quality, not stories

On a **KER QuickTake (Sept 30)**, the KE Report hosts flagged that gold had broken below its 50-week moving average (the average price over the last 50 weeks, a widely watched trend line), while GDX and GDXJ had not, at least as of recording. They named the gold lows to defend as **$3,955 and $3,963**. For silver, the "line in the sand is $54 and some change," which is last October and November's lows. One host said he would only get excited about GDXJ again above "$136 and some change," near its April high and a double top.

They were more cautious than most guests: "Not saying you need to be selling into this, but you do need to be cognizant." On takeovers: "stick with the better quality companies… those will be the ones to get taken out. The money is not filtering down into the juniors." They also spotted an overlooked group: older companies with big, lower-grade deposits whose studies are "juiced up" by higher metal prices but which trade at "a fraction" of newer peers. "If they were a brand new company, they probably would have a valuation 2 or 3x where they are today." ([The KE Report QuickTake, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjIJZjjvuslw2LcxdacY6UGgGrIhomJXX6leobv-2F0j5iTlXE794dbMbGONWegx0wy-2F2ok9FDxuO-2FZaODTs-2BFMJ-2F0-2BmR5CQndyz395zHR11SPA-3D-3DIwjY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5hPMwMgjCxVxvwjhNRQXdnKbM5KC-2BlVM5jiT-2F-2BHkKexY6tW-2BTAYACKmUb6VC3qdAWea3-2Fw9B9Fi-2BhnDIikioXTsclVApyfrZnNzvEqv8YYrjQLSfjbd3-2FM5JkyV0ZFDneuO0t6CYd7Oi-2BbzZZcCRADQ-3D))

Also on **The KE Report (Sept 28)**, technical trader **TG Watkins** said both GLD and GDX had broken below their 50-day averages. He holds a "weak bias" on GDX until it tests its July lows and expects a sideways consolidation rather than an immediate move higher. ([The KE Report, Sept 28](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgEvZiqBJAm67eJczEWQ1lnC8yxD9FljyKiXTHMLTXipRBIrGYPauE0QkGEkDlR0DjBrFFQVRjfZLF67n1yaYRHUwbMTLxWHQ2Gfk7nZinIWQ-3D-3DnFSI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5hNRGeMJGgUx-2BJcOARYC-2FneZ5wh-2Fi7Aqr7efyEK0TXQ6lnB-2F2cmYDYiQU6D1v9S-2BtraUMgsSrHppGU9woWi-2BzlDSxrv0HRbLP1y0V-2BlYk-2BuVSoxCal-2BxVFemg-2FzbdmMkxVchSzT8gBM56yXXQjKfbiU-3D))

### A mutual-fund manager's 20% gold bet

On **Money Life with Chuck Jaffe (Sept 29)**, Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund, explained why a traditionally gold-free fund now has "about 20% exposure to the price of gold." (The episode title names Asbury Research's Kosar, but the gold discussion is with Muhlenkamp.) His reasoning: "foreign central banks have decided that gold is a better store of value than U.S. treasuries… And the other half of the story is that the U.S. is more indebted than it's ever really been. And historically, the way a nation will work off its debt is essentially to devalue the currency." He owns **Newmont and Agnico Eagle** plus a royalty company, and thinks "we're about halfway through whatever is going to happen with the price of gold." On Barrick, he called it "a pretty high-quality miner… 17 mines in about a dozen different countries," a qualified buy, though his preferred names remain the two he owns. ([Money Life with Chuck Jaffe, Sept 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjae5-2BZ9yQQurHIXt6BP4mtbbsmWYvfKqDnN0TQjfyeC9R1-2FUepWkeUQpuoBtHDObBLfxfaLy7dg9wsJ8S9GBzwzjhxKM0QwqURfq-2BHfBFNaA-3D-3DhPop_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5suaJYSjY0vNG8zEjQA-2BEmkF8OZ06rjq9rtcMraN8lAwQF7JEKQF8tCI-2FsenucVOy-2B6I6lxMy0SB2j9JnfWLrlhCV-2FrSh2EhmhVn8dDEjxVJEWG48vz9sxS4-2BU-2FXmvo64GOC508mI-2FL6vJh7bGlPe7w-3D))

### Florian Grummes: the August rally "looks a little bit like just a short squeeze"

Grummes is a precious-metals analyst and fund adviser. On **Palisades Gold Radio (Sept 30)** he gave an unusually candid self-assessment. Gold ran "$750 to the upside from $3,950" (the late-June low) to $4,697 in three and a half weeks, but "in hindsight, it looks a little bit like just a short squeeze." Too many bears had to buy back their bets. Gold was $4,110 the day before he spoke. As long as the "$3,950 to $4,050-ish" zone holds, the year can end well; if not, "the worst case scenario, $3,500 comes into play." He keeps buying dips toward $4,000 but warns it may take "another year until this correction is done." He also noted that the Dutch central bank repatriated its physical gold this year, and expects more Western central banks to follow Poland in buying. ([Palisades Gold Radio, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgnb0FXTU4wT5MdKPXGx-2FcU2s4E-2BIS5q7vLLFou1NnKPAn1P-2B0jrBrjp6qHC3-2F2ADh-2FX20j3H4awc2uGVvyFC0i7WOfRUjuUwk4cKVY3pfKug-3D-3DV3-k_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5lyrkd9q5y08b1HktgmOu7ECXS5ZXRDYRpBrB3aPZRd8yK32Bg1xvAonP8VsZ6sRauF7pQa7SNnZJ3TW5VUWXyBA28pbqLwRxLvvqZ2dSCA7m4S7wSCmWbx2AsySq811QzSF3PgXPHxf45qnWIVNYpY-3D))

### A gold-yield fund manager's caution on silver

On **The Gold Exchange Podcast (Sept 28)**, Grayson Guiler, who runs the Gold Rush Yield Fund (it earns interest by leasing out gold), said his fund beat the London gold price by 7.18% in the year to June. He noted that "even the Morgan Stanley's of the world" have floated a 60/20/20 stocks/bonds/gold portfolio, and that "10% has become kind of the starting point." He warned against silver hype: "Lots and lots of people talking about $300 an ounce, $500 an ounce… between here and $500 an ounce, I promise you there will be a lot more supply." ([The Gold Exchange Podcast, Sept 28](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh1CSXzI7pj5kjiEYAyhVb5MK2GTHnla6yzueuAkOKMzGaQC07OY8WMKxE53ADw11-2B-2BpJpN99gZ-2FRwCsihoBAyw2jwrTkc7BA7ApXghFdfW9w-3D-3D6NY9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5g9vhXSJP7gWCCStQACxJWvAeTbdnnndtT6S1VuOrNXaeWhBna1PDCb-2FeNrZ-2F7KSd7TaT6LTI3FV8fLd6pjm1DSF02cLDlwZj9SA4tbajkPR9FbL5LzMWsiqZaPH6o0O6KwVTMr3Qb0O35uUVU2JMtU-3D))

## Central banks and de-dollarization

**China's imports are the hardest number of the week.** Money Metals' Weekly Market Wrap reported that **"China imported more than 1,100 tons of gold in the first eight months of this year, spending about $159 billion, according to Chinese customs data. That's already more gold than the country imported in all of 2025."** The hosts were careful to add: "the headline number doesn't tell us that demand will keep rising every single month." On the same episode, **Nomi Prins** said central banks "had their largest quarter on record in the second quarter of this year," that August saw the "second highest record" month for gold ETF inflows, and that gold has settled into "a $4,300, $4,400 range." ([Money Metals' Weekly Market Wrap, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgOxWLu1JnVBZwhmJDkgs9C-2Bb4NGu6Zy7wQqUW6kMSOxUMzJWHwYP0KUTgcCNydSbNy6yqOMItd7uws4n2wmF4QBO-2B9F4jGSCahx4lWpDlGKA-3D-3DtLaa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5mc6jLIZrgPXxoMmQ8qzRkwKALSstArzUDhUZ55SsCaZZZ-2FL6tjNgNx4WMDi5QZRSOHp1zzv5rKNTEipcTkieJXsz4cQjCiV7T2Z20WYe-2BaRrXmoMRRmD1ulGLFOGMmiZjPxQ-2F6Ox1IwDdMlEspiRsc-3D))

**An ally talks openly about leaving the dollar.** On **Money Metals' "Dollar Club" episode (Sept 30)**, the host focused on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Speaking to the European Parliament, Carney warned that "financial mechanisms are being used for coercive purposes" and hinted at Canada–Europe "payment systems that bypass those controlled by the U.S." He later told the New York Times the world needs a "multipolar system" with several reserve currencies. The host's point: "We're not talking about China here or Russia or Iran… We're talking about Canada and Europe." He was careful too: "I'm not here saying that the dollar is at imminent risk of falling off its perch… The dollar is the cleanest, dirty shirt in the laundry." The trigger was Treasury Secretary Bessent's plan to ground Iran's airlines worldwide, with secondary sanctions threatened on anyone who helps them. ([Money Metals' Weekly Market Wrap, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMg84R4FwL6fB-2FlJdngdZ-2BlxiaIvYBoWwd9nuCZBk1rWbc8OQLqiIla0dmwnsBPRRfpzKxW0ILoyPHJAn3TREh0YQ-3D-3D1VXj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5m2AjDj2Sy7-2FG5Bqmt-2B-2BvAs9EuSb7HnE4kpNodXsZhw-2FfjOc0gEFSGMeNssl312DdReQBoswlq3NTMdlUS4VeFEeJ5qhSrzbkMDvxFtF1oDOcrFp9vkYvP9FOUQIewNVBXhrH5XsQpvcw7Lp57k5fDU-3D))

**Rick Rule on why foreigners demand more yield.** On the same Money Talks episode, Rule gave two reasons long rates are rising. First, savers don't believe official inflation. Comparing 2020 with today, "interest rates have tripled, energy prices have almost tripled, food prices have doubled… Doubling in 6 years does not equate to a 3% compound rate." Second, the dollar has been weaponized: "we stole $300 billion worth of Russian assets," so sovereign savers "come to the conclusion that they can't trust us anymore… This isn't something that the world did to the US, it's something that the US did to the US." ([Michael Campbell's Money Talks, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVWIzNk5eCCnW3sfGLSus-2Bh0vHTueIX4rb0hyGKioqAipYqUOOwLpRC3sUp4zSbYWVKM7eBDcs3Rmg3fOEKlTUdyKcW0Ivv5m9pvaKdDcIJg-3D-3DWCbQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5iFGXaXhzzn9TreiPW6qeEQ-2FvF4SLULswSVGT5a6fpnEx9uOGsnfni8FYRnZlu7daEmW5g5-2FS1Mc6n2EPNehlAEt6nuN8BB78MSiC5YRncoiDrKohSIwkZy699TwJYkJtB-2BfFfcSQ3nCzOBH9hH7mWI-3D))

**Chris Whalen: back to a pre-1914 world.** On **The Julia La Roche Show #413 (Sept 26)**, Whalen, a banking analyst who says he is "still very long gold and silver," argued that rising long rates are "about the credibility of the United States… it has nothing to do with the Fed." His long view: "We're going back to something that looks like the period before World War I, where countries had to compete in terms of the value of their money. And we're going to have gold as the foundation of the entire system… When people sell treasury securities, they're buying gold." He doesn't see the dollar losing its role in trade: "people are going to keep using the dollar. But they're not going to use it as a store of value." ([The Julia La Roche Show #413, Sept 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOitBKMkelVTAV2cQOEgOWfZgX8kZI84HqKIg8AftR-2FkYNbfhVpYd3OQhh-2FxKtdA6pNAfAO1M7ndRNXxenz-2FdJaZkXqOeuLE-2BG4X9cHhONuN3A-3D-3D6FZj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5n-2BurICUnjs3psHUo-2B3c7TX56fL3vRQ-2FU1CFx1UvDvdw2x2D6-2BmUc2JY-2BAB0XJNMRohLj7YgnpkWsTVFrtq-2BzfjFP73IIPtALcEmev9y1A5-2BdLS-2FNsVQ0MyglYTErmLYzjhZmmcqXEyH7EuxPdTPyiE-3D))

**The gold revaluation idea is back.** On the **ITM Trading Podcast (Sept 25)**, Charlie Garcia of R360 said Bessent is "reportedly considering" revaluing US gold reserves from the official $42 an ounce to near market price (he cited $4,338 that morning), which would give the Treasury nearly $1 trillion of "fiscal firepower." Treat that as his reading of reports, not a confirmed plan. He also made an arithmetic point: the 12-month T-bill now yields "100 basis points higher than the 3.49% average rate" the Treasury pays on its existing debt, "so every dollar that rolls over gets more expensive." He called China's buying "siege proofing" rather than diversification, and recommends at least 10% of a portfolio in gold, silver and miners. ([ITM Trading Podcast, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOisf6u1Fy75V4KM-2B7-2BLOcXqEjm1XHIYHWsDwcpixfY0-2BU9PRJbi9oWxPFdZBIpD5YEEdfYMwyhwUwHRlu1Hbrstn4Ywufz8oohZ6wV3Ujneow-3D-3DQeLT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5uLWpKw7eQXc3wnEj057-2BTLr7c5b66jQI7-2F2jFC-2BtUkN0Gg16e8UhoSXILnATaKV9AV7YFFv379Q1PNBC-2B396QjDfh33A7VdFdxPZKPXW-2BGupRdN7CrJ13fRyX3Z-2BnSzqCBA2FiSsaNx6k0rWWwuc3E-3D))

## The commentators: the big-picture bulls

- **Lyn Alden (Market Disruptors, Sept 30)** described a "run-it-hot fiscal environment" in which US deficits of "something like 7% of GDP… 6% on a good year" are "pretty much locked in" by demographics. Even serious austerity would backfire, because the top few percent pay much of the tax through stock-linked income, so a weaker market cuts tax receipts. Developed countries historically escape high debt by defaulting on "purchasing power in a partial sense," through "financial repression" (keeping interest rates below inflation). She placed gold just below the scarcest assets on her spectrum: supply grows "1 or 2% a year," so it "historically grows a little bit slower than money supply growth." ([Market Disruptors, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOglQ-2BC5m-2FcYPmhiALw8TssC4k50XdXAIOF9lQbCBaV-2Fagofa2OAKOzV-2FWC-2FdzVEDl-2FcJ90BmfVmjHXUZdbJ63drDLXH1h9ejF2CtGhVhpTuEw-3D-3DVSgh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5gFKFaAe8k3yGari8muhF5jg2GaEButXbLLdRKn7ldfq2KuiH19IG88cT0gBFfVdm-2BLbjA2e-2FLW5eLnAvtE-2F9pcQcxRI17azA1OYboHNNC-2B8C5FyVl-2B8-2BD5v1-2BjmKratijC7U7dKoO3xvVaUslPH-2BQk-3D))
- **Lawrence Lepard (Thoughtful Money, Sept 29)** sees the next round of money printing ("The Big Print") at "seven, eight, 10, 12" trillion dollars, after "Bernanke printed 3 trillion" and "Powell… five or six." "No investor in our lifetimes has seen this set of conditions… the last time we had a sovereign debt crisis was World War I." He named junior miners he likes from a recent conference: Honey Badger Silver (a mine mothballed after the Hunt brothers' silver collapse, with equipment "still in the wrapper… from 1980"), Silver Storm, Lahontan Gold, and Lavras Gold, where he disclosed he is a director. His trade "doesn't work… if the government gets really responsible." ([Thoughtful Money, Sept 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgr-2F6HYtqjR8fcLRatgzcbzRC3k54mRsgGOSwBCjMBoZbSop2xbjMwsEYVopAilIFRaPILz-2F7AdQ5OIAaZ5H97F4tv9fhuCccuWto7zePqCPA-3D-3DoqN5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5geoC3SjdsVP3B1PzuHbuf5wUvh3FGQS3khWHpsJuKL9rePN7c64HDa7UnvYgpmk5OYzWndozG89TVMyvPywThmxdrrq-2F-2F0rbZDsB8lOecI2BwHf49K4D99DvBJavC3P7BvAsTaqQj27HSH3ch-2FAZlc-3D))
- **Alasdair Macleod (Commodity Culture, Sept 24)** has the most extreme timeline: the fiat-currency system collapses within about 18 months. The Iran war's diesel and jet-fuel shortages and a European drought that "cut… cereal yields by up to half" push bond yields "well above this sort of 5% Rubicon," which "pop[s] the equity bubble." On central-bank buying: "they're getting rid of fiat currencies in return for gold. Yeah, it's as simple as that." His favorite illustration: a coffee at Jonathan's coffee house in London in 1750 cost one old penny. Translated into gold, that is about £3.75 today, "which, surprisingly, is what you would pay Starbucks." ([Commodity Culture, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgO0Xks8xn4JvyBTx1hiVxpSyTSvKKS-2BN2RqLFgkOm-2BV-2BKK0xdg-2BouZa1HYMywIIS-2BYW5LHe6fBsvkXbvlfJp1Wzb5AAGrSHz9pBlyOHs6Zrw-3D-3DJOHv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5ohOfrYD8RxafSBgGRl2e7tq5lV41XX3mMHseTfBOKTIgmXHUB-2FGZF8eccN7eGMoWCgBk7B-2FfWfyrkcYE-2Fat1w-2B4UjEp1WbGXFwz9F9j4fwKfQXjCCNq-2BHLqwIOxJ1B47NLbAMkLVL-2BRaqm2QlTNXPc-3D))
- **Ed Dowd (Soar Financially, Sept 28)** forecasts **gold at $10,000 by 2030**. He noted that in July 2025 gold was made "tier one capital" at banks, so "they made gold money again." But he is a short-term bond bull: "the solution to higher yields is high yields themselves. They'll choke off the economy," leading to "a deflation, disinflationary scare" before the Fed eventually prints. He also thinks the Fed's hike was a mistake in response to an oil-supply shock. ([Soar Financially, Sept 28](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj7HGmnRuWl0ccmSLhxjyy5AIzllnQU1VGtQidPGBIoZHsW2m-2BeRLD-2FIXm-2Bi3NTK0yJriCDC4CQ9ykeAp0B3niP7kLS-2FbPePekkLyNY72Wyxg-3D-3Dk6vq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5uzWBKV0TXtt0XIloDUU-2FLbBOYIZUhOoeFksnXpehyJ3VL7EnLiOyFPjcJf0tRqCV8i7wxmKhNtOSu0xLqgHezv1L-2Bdlj-2FTrnZZjVfntb0riq1LuLyIyE5grht3XKVUVX0-2FSpzOchDQp6eUD0Ts81s0-3D))
- **Andrew Sleigh (Sprott Money News, Sept 24)** pointed to the stablecoin issuer Tether holding 146 tons of gold and recently buying silver, as a sign of institutional buying ahead of what he expects to be a system break within one to two years. ([Sprott Money News, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhvRWjUHeuD9tf873vhHXUSYW2mO8gwldIFj6OmQuPIig27VtvoNHr6UCWUL2kGDBtrKFTr2TA3VkTh5E7eS7kZB6u8Z4TJY0MDC8ayrfwb4w-3D-3DUILN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5l-2FweMDiPfmvrv-2FrWG6D3ixpW3wwGybETNmzouDdVwrySMm1vqzRwtnRqbxsoEv7cNuF8b1OCxdYEVxziAUMGiAZcYk-2Fge0w341swPLE9IoU7BtgjmOf4n8FT2h6a5OSAZJwBfXrp3klyf26KD-2F-2BiI0-3D))

## The skeptics and the patient: voices that urged caution

This is the most useful section for anyone deciding when, not whether, to buy.

- **Steve Penny (Commodity Culture, Oct 1)** made the best-argued "be patient" case. He thinks we are in a "1974 moment." From 1971 to 1974 silver rose 423% in 27 months. In the 27 months to the January 2026 peak, it rose 484%, peaking "about the same month." In the 1970s, silver then "went sideways for 59 consecutive months after a 50% drawdown." He doesn't expect five years this time, but thinks we are "about halfway through" and metals could "grind sideways for another one to three quarters." His roadmap: "hike, pause, print," a retest of the highs in late 2027 or early 2028, then a "deflationary impulse" crash. The Fed's response to that crash is what sends silver to "300 plus" and gold to "10,000 plus." On the Volcker comparison: "a 10% interest rate on $40 trillion would be $4 trillion of interest expense… they only collect just over $5 trillion in federal tax receipts." ([Commodity Culture, Oct 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi9Dh3aGHMdsJTEsHNGvqMg2Ibdpz4eTHFakQdDwTI-2FUgU-2FMrQLQ5B44cZOxiYy4efLC-2FpRLmLL2mMig1oF60ApYPi9Z0imcKcCHXr2FsskjQ-3D-3DI1tE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5jEMWHBzokDMLUqquHGVwWSZqYLjO21w9nOPuLlNAwkYiXveMTwzIbJHmie9niOwIByFs-2BnFFNekOdoe4Rdkmj-2BH-2FDLxe1XCOmDMjGUMGzho2UX4sJC6uCO6tr049loNR6KKuSqhG1bm-2BZAJeJR3mVs-3D))
- **The Contrarian Capitalist (Sept 30)** started with the dollar index at 101.42, "still in a structural bull market," which "is going to put a limit on the gold price." Gold was $4,158 (down about 3% on the week) and could reach "$3,800, $3,900." Silver was $60.29, down 6%. Chartist **Tom Bradshaw**, who sold his paper silver and gold positions (but kept his physical metal), "thinks that silver could head down to $28 to $30." That is far below what any other guest discussed, and the host himself said "I'm not saying that that's the case." ([The Contrarian Capitalist, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiioXbGh-2BRV-2Ba9EBIbV1RJwh9Ynab7ulxuH-2BXPJDIZ1F-2BKAgoJOeFlqlb6HVb23rRyN1Xg2Hv3nmaTcUkrHoCp-2Feu6vewf-2Firl9hETgnShfNQ-3D-3D5Qep_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5rjIDky8t8mShqpZmAxTN9RfnQyTvWOQOQnpIIizKiRtdM-2FVQdn7lHDvylqiF2O1ZtktX1-2BXsx-2FAPP-2B4HfjSCKK5PrriGvdbCrO12HpOJc3N8B7GFq-2FLFUo-2BoUZVkHFPEuqRy1hOmaE3Ryv4XhXXKfY-3D))
- **Saxo Market Call (Sept 25)** took the opposite view of the same facts. In a week when long-end yields rose "17, 18 basis points" and the dollar gained 1%, gold falling only 2.5% looked "quite resilient… another week where the gold and the precious metal market have gone through a bit of a stress test." ETF holdings had not suffered "any major setbacks." The key support was about $4,235, which has since broken. ([Saxo Market Call, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiHVBDW8eLgQTK0cNzjckjxXwfjN-2BVZZplr6WFzGA6PwvudPECViTK7vXZFlEUG8YOS4k6c-2BaKOjfN5Bg-2Bh0f0PRY8NwyxPmFC5SxxysYNkLw-3D-3DJGKT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5tTHWflKIFUvUmd9tAVvZV1Fab9VgW63stODNZ-2BrCz2uJxxvXxjflC-2FuRXIDjkUDQeIgzbytItGwcBj-2FQPCmNlc7YyPbN9nEZCORBSQDKtQSW8vod9TqYhjtwVgrrdeQZkkx1mRnmT5gk9FLqtk0LO4-3D))

## Miners corner: seniors, royalties, juniors, silver and PGMs

### Senior producers (Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Barrick)

- **Agnico Eagle's growth, from the inside.** On **Behind the Scenes with Bryan (Sept 28)**, Michel Julien, a 15-year Agnico veteran and adjunct professor at the University of Toronto, said that when he joined, the company's market value "was $12 billion Canadian, and now it's $120 billion… grown by more or less one order of magnitude." ([Behind the Scenes with Bryan, Sept 28](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgXKonUDfkVXww3mSarYeFqs-2ByRlKiu2FJaUyOaBx-2FOiKGNIWIcI5yY2fcVv0DkgPR3BiBNqwJ5i-2F1ku8dwVopiZm-2FWzDEpXDAWAkdoqG6bwQ-3D-3DhY_B_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5lQXK-2B1SQZuS4OGfkYYTlaUFGOvigj8T-2B9Idf0HSoR-2FcwCMFEmKEp0iAuhNlsZRTcsmt7sjUm8w9Ye3EnRgd01vNgwDWXORDPfs6n-2B5z4crlQFgtfnSCHPArTe8IUA2c-2Bht6gQMl9a1VgqK-2FjZPKdxw-3D))
- **Agnico is doing exactly what Rule described.** On **Company Interviews (Sept 24)**, Radisson Mining CEO Matthew Manson said Agnico invested **C$57 million** (closed September 2) for about 10.5% of Radisson, with warrants that take it toward 14.9%. Radisson's O'Brien project is **three kilometres** from Agnico's flagship La Ronde mine, which has "a three kilometer deep shaft, two mills and a large permit[ted] tailings facility." Radisson had about $100 million in cash at end-August and is funding a 140,000-metre, 8-rig drill program plus an underground ramp. Manson said Radisson was valued at "$191 US an ounce" on 2.3 million ounces (with a "discovery cost of $21 US an ounce"), while "takeouts… in the last six months" have been at "$500, $600 per ounce." ([Company Interviews, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2FCAattXdGhYVKaDzgdYRELlIob039OJvj1ZsW20ZpUThnTc53kTd-2FfTkYOxDl2lsLVeo91sw8XHso-2BMD1gWlNnOcJPVUg6-2BpZGzo03xOdRA-3D-3Dmtxq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5hsCQwUuo7xcr8NttkAALMusbEkgXPpHRZ-2FiGcGfE00cpmc1RGL2Z2B8QSlb81FK-2FlWVm54TV-2BsCPGlSX7yGdtUx0lOX3FyNTbg0TZGWG1uAdP-2Bp9TQTr7aVbDhGwRRGWTvX340mbO2ssdemVJzOAYE-3D))
- **Newmont** featured mainly through Oliver's claim that it "made a marginal new high" before this week's selloff, and through the Muhlenkamp Fund's holding (both covered above).

### Royalty and streaming (Franco-Nevada, Wheaton, Royal Gold)

This was the weakest corner of the market this week.

- **Wheaton Precious Metals.** On **InvestTalk (Sept 28 edition, published Sept 29)**, KPP Financial's Luke Guerrero noted Wheaton's record Q2 (reported in August): it beat forecasts "by roughly 6%," with "74% year-over-year growth" and "$650 million" of operating cash flow. Yet "the price fell off a little bit… a lot of that has to do with structurally how bid up a lot of these names are." His co-host Justin Klein saw the pullback to the 50-day average as "decent support." The stock has since fallen another 7% on the week. ([InvestTalk, Sept 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjZyadtKVnBxfPQ0-2BmzVBA2H30YkZApf-2FOyQ0GsokAH-2BjLE0VPSzrQz0U20rJwH0EJ02xnrfy2T4aajJTLaxgiXDbMZrc4Y-2FOvp5fGbI-2BxWGw-3D-3DpfBk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5qq4fWlgxOkcI-2FiZswAW-2FOnqSZrrZO2Sfhds9S81GGX8KKNydzu3HJzP3JWcucTpNGcx44LnfBTGhcQp-2F9nDfqgLAuP3BAbhJ5YPOrp3JK5RWOnsqxhNOBMZS9rUPREusa36cZXzuYXs3ih-2ByTsHdJM-3D)) Wheaton also showed up as a financier: Luca Mining said Wheaton is providing a **500,000-ounce silver prepay facility** plus an equity investment toward Luca's $290 million upfront purchase of the Cozamin mine from Capstone. ([Company Interviews, Sept 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg4cULNApjlRkSHk-2BBtGbQ4imN1kD45A4yXYAyr8ZNKAN-2F09yNDlVVWV5AtJJLKkWllSOZr3VyZLs2EBAcnLMp5IOyBeN3QArajME4Lj7zRcg-3D-3DDNg1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5oNz1-2F5ea74ux1urkf3rhntvzCjguW5CggNEJ87tLa6J-2FON82aq2wlMHl64bzcMfndjCrmszOOLgygQa9vKi1pgKG5ZXmjs0PRe4YyCSo93wBZjchP2SXripIOlD-2F0jFj6uh9F7oSrYSYcrX2E7YrpE-3D))
- **Franco-Nevada** appeared as a backer of junior Banyan Gold. It bought "a 1% royalty" on the AurMac project in Yukon (3.64 million ounces indicated and 5 million inferred) as part of a financing that left Banyan with "a $100 million treasury at $2 per share" ([Company Interviews, Sept 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiL-2F5axjQZMeFJNNMqyLTi3VCC8cdlo2EVWUES-2BDQWw174zeqwBKQ5fYXJeN8Rxr02gEz-2B46wN4kxP-2FBmJgDUikup-2FJaBSdPRiA8KtXRL44Jg-3D-3DI0JI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5hajj3G-2F-2FKaSoRWYd0lO45Cfn-2BCH-2FAvK5oAmo4rz33qnYXebTZrBaO5BNnah3Q4x96MoovbUyefRRVzQslKgxsv4GVRTDsvJW7xzvf1HsFKPh5l-2FS5j2-2BypwjG8qH1sLuwRB-2BqsrgZSLKU-2BCWt3pgNA-3D)). A separate interview described Franco's stake as "$20 million for a 2% stake," part of a $58 million raise that also brought GDXJ index inclusion ([The KE Report, Sept 28](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjTPjeN9Ndoc0-2Fl11caqe9qhtKFq5zpduAFxRf11bU44zxA-2Fwn-2B5YQPLLvlVUkCrqjZGhFRnrI5bSiEk36aO5oqmHkxo3zICaGs9dIlP1sSZw-3D-3DjfCg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5kfbWmHwGc623xsEY6M-2BpWHvFPXEpHuwX7NyjyXcTutX6S0x9CgksHCfPXVdsHrl-2FMyaGR3uxxREGSsUNZ5lTwJY373KZxxuXvvJFBAtIhuBPa0P7lhYgdpS73VqzuI8pGOe-2BxJ66yPCcmAwSPTZKFU-3D)).
- **Why did Franco fall 9%?** Outside the podcasts, Franco's partner First Quantum put out an update on the Cobre Panamá copper mine on September 30. A Panamanian government commission recommended talks on either a restart or an orderly closure of the mine, and Franco holds a large stream on it. That is the likely company-specific driver; see [First Quantum's news page](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NhsagSt8KheAxEg9cu8Muxye6OBfVcXw1qm1dQPISXgasCo1DfOC3T2tzOCUtjFqDw-3D-3DVNN8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5v2G2OXXZQuexj1R1yXvNeZXBwubMA-2Bymc7iE7QXCyK6xU4l0-2FzhyG2q14nhTX0MlbY2PZXf1i-2BQE6bVEG5lK6L-2Be3iVDUCRm9-2FqbIoJbfI-2BncjwdNnHCakmFZHJMSioJmPLAMohFsaXy8o4N9TzKS0-3D) for the update.
- **Vox Royalty** (a small Australia-focused royalty company) said on **Company Interviews (Oct 1)** that it deployed $8.4 million across three Australian royalties plus a **$13 million** purchase of a silver royalty on Sorby Hills, which is expected to produce 2.2 million ounces of silver a year. It claims the highest five-year return on invested capital in the royalty sector. ([Company Interviews, Oct 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjyVq2-2FMQc8mZD8K8Q-2BHbMU7xv3p-2BtBGq0FT07cOwdYQvGrFLgolvXp-2B0E0sQvD6mxlTKDQlgAGYScW1s3iRlpZnYMP6-2F-2FWQhHXmUU6f2MYGg-3D-3DzyKc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5kZAb3Qj43dR1gcJpI4mMhVGH0eHV0sPk6vP5bqJq84WHDxBNtwBhxolxHvvTfo9P-2BM7iJ33x13x0cYPZpF8pWZ0R3RmW9ILj5Ok9n-2Bc6WRH5mXDmcFkoI5CCgNfgkxPWvrLUH5v-2BheO90bOnNQuBlw-3D))

### Junior developers: lots of cash, real numbers

- **Amex Exploration (Perron, Quebec).** Amex plans a 25,000-ounce bulk sample that at $4,000 gold brings in about C$135 million. Phase 1 would produce 147,000 ounces a year at a **$910/oz net margin**, roughly $500 million of pre-tax free cash flow over five years, on $194 million of total feasibility-study capex. The resource is 740,000–750,000 ounces at 12+ grams per tonne. ([Company Interviews, Sept 26](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjdfkvuroXYlf51Ec-2BvX84LX-2Bl2hvyTmJoyd-2B5aVtOImLfQdhae9x5jFk-2F0Y6XotaIWlCuvhw4FMg4MQAceY4AIe4bqCNJ9hxqbzUVb-2BZKS-2FQ-3D-3DBsVz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5grLpiG3-2FQ4rdFjlMTkRuNv26uRHgzMyBcuyZrz0jivbnziOVyMCJUnRzqMrGE-2BDDF8pz-2FxHvShSIZ6XqVpBt5PwCz4iMaRMQjJFYyseCepBXECdMebW4CgYSf0EskRlQF7Q04fWE0kHXAeWJZpwfxc-3D))
- **Contango Silver & Gold (Alaska).** Contango produces about 60,000 oz a year from its 70/30 Manh Choh joint venture with Kinross and targets 200,000 oz of gold plus 5 million oz of silver a year within five years. It guides about $2,000/oz all-in costs, expects about $100 million a year of free cash flow from Manh Choh, and plans to pay down $46 million of debt by mid-next year. ([Company Interviews, Oct 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgpQX94rySoulhMBrTD-2FJBb9oBIg7pgo3dotw2GZ0Nc5qr8-2B-2ByzB-2FTbwHFUUfN558oVMDBdJQ-2F7TDto0Zs4mSTB2Q2KK4T5FrTx0zSYKehjRQ-3D-3D9Qsp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5s3WCX-2Fn5vinWQwT9-2FxJAJubyifbNJv9OZnDyos2r7-2Fc2HoI7vqQxOA64hGOkRs2RUrTalDcheTyeSGdhWaQwUWh5D1vcqtEnU3aHcatiT0hZ830-2BFCwycTLVIQZD1q0Oq9ZAlkTuyAWDEPA9xn5NQA-3D))
- **Metals Exploration (La India, Nicaragua).** First gold pour is targeted for December 2026, with 100,000 oz in 2027 rising to 140,000–150,000 oz by 2029–2030. With all-in costs of about $1,800–2,000/oz, the CEO said they are "making about… 2000 an ounce on 100 000 ounces," which works out to "about a 200… million free cash next year." Long-term sustaining costs are guided at $1,300–1,500/oz. ([Company Interviews, Oct 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj-2FZMDL8uXW4H-2F3xzqsjIr3tyUgOqyXo-2Bd8F-2FmfQ3WhxVCZW4IJSIxi-2FsDoqhtBq5rRyWG0uDLl7UiTSQVco-2FM-2FqenfV9u9Mihvjn7lF7ClZQ-3D-3D1tR9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5klgRAbm7nyH2P0ktE5pDUId5fjrkSuYIFLVYtW8AT1fIEh0C9Cm1YlkqOM7yqF1W0LwW-2F-2F6EErnMhBrw1Xaa907Jn9Ws6XOsOR0BAu0G88-2FmUeSjRirU6J-2BcIrkNXO-2FzCl4u892H4NS2VbHh2-2BOgJQ-3D))
- **Western Exploration (Nevada).** Its 400,000-oz Doby George oxide project has $115 million capex and targets 2030 production, with "over $150 million annual cash flow at $3,400 gold." ([Company Interviews, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjTv9uJEEre1m9crGrSMofec2Ld1IuNCYf2HtNdc2M0-2FRL-2Bpmp41ErxZQFOsDmBxDwPZUi7jbGy34VkvdqQWqsigJbN90G0QX-2BcxyEmlqj-2BPQ-3D-3DUQDp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5kgyYWx-2FBgwsZ1FydyuoolMXIIt-2F4Dk0JoCE8walPukDMsPTVrUpkpfOOU0ZIIrQaHhflogjwMJrS3Hy1mh1S2mYbBtZ-2F2e20DXA1S1AR-2FiUBBv1TRoExymbVOxWONqb-2Fe2NW1xHdnuQaZ6NwaHODqE-3D))
- **Alkane Resources (Australia),** a roughly 170,000-oz-a-year mid-tier producer, sees limited M&A because "quality projects can now self-fund" and many "development-ready" targets have unresolved permits. ([Company Interviews, Oct 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOggYf2MXs8wZaMnLX3Si8Ruci9rMmbgMTSBqBGF6TmJzC9PpmhHOhFPY-2Bhiy6kMeVeNTERinORXKrWBDFs-2FXXM67dzGmzUQZK2V94XikjQsMA-3D-3D3trx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5o-2BqLtGmZWF6g-2B1DeKZmB7XBDSGXC1AbWBjMKDMHXGD3bGKmgBRRLUDAanBbTu578bZIkt8xCw171wARQwMZPLeRehWoD4DXXpTzJGCCYZhdwH6O4flg4DmIuxUEt9Ru0b-2FIViZJrUp6Mg6PhTizOhE-3D))

### Silver and silver miners

- **Rick Rule on Mexico (In it to Win it, Sept 24):** "If you're a silver investor and you aren't in Mexico, you aren't a silver investor." He was direct about the risks: Mexico's president "is on record for being anti-mining," and he cited "the kidnapping and murder of 10 employees of Vizsla Silver, by the way, a portfolio name for me." He praised First Majestic's Keith Neumeyer, whose San Dimas mine "has been in continuous operation since the 1500s" and, he suspects, "will continue to generate free cash flow for First Majestic shareholders for 30 more years." He also discussed GoGold's Brad Langille as a serial Mexican district consolidator. ([In it to Win it, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgIphGGPheJej6mmtXdMHEetdmRU2LC5V4-2FO4uMHah0VTo7aXfyrGtRQVINBMJQYtS5tQbi1g5-2FuHRNi2RNjI1pz22OLDtT3qiA-2FOULzzl6mg-3D-3DkhE7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5mY7qxRea8BoCMuzM6UROa8Q8EygveN-2FShr0WOJqH78B46nlvcVx95rnr-2FdSxNxfZ0Hs5MVUZOPU0z204hlnPpXm2LwqaiCSRKwV39VieCyetXyPuSbPKcfMbM0mxEwWdXqxFZGcQj5NEYSWdAlFAag-3D))
- **Rule on silver's role:** "precious metals bull markets are led by gold… When the generalist investor comes into the precious metals space, price leadership goes from gold to silver, from the fear buyer to the greed buyer. I've watched that happen 4 times in my career." ([Michael Campbell's Money Talks, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjVWIzNk5eCCnW3sfGLSus-2Bh0vHTueIX4rb0hyGKioqAipYqUOOwLpRC3sUp4zSbYWVKM7eBDcs3Rmg3fOEKlTUdyKcW0Ivv5m9pvaKdDcIJg-3D-3D3CkB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5k37Sw3xOMwYboyw1BGAFQV1w434LF41mgT5XLoacCwa34pk1UtS6kOR51ZogHqrMwGsdAtqQxbdFLxpbFNPW8j3Klz951gKyJ7YxzvJG5e2oD-2FASi1A33VkP9PFKesK-2BcfhtcqY9eW5z0YFLtmFB40-3D))
- **Americas Gold & Silver** described itself as 90% silver by revenue with a "1.51x beta to silver" (it tends to move about 1.5 times as much as the silver price). Mill recovery at Galena rose from 80–82% to 90%, and its Mexican EC120 mine produced a record 1.1 million ounces in 2025. ([Company Interviews, Sept 24](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiMjqmbs3B8UNrRa8g-2Fl1oU3ZiqwEaw4TQlSyaxMlBkgFq9zD8bXowdBQ66HE91jB8fh-2F8CU7yf-2B6iKI4tRVPHuNQN3lGrGPcSjxTyZKX18Hg-3D-3DdfgU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5pYMbworXv-2FksQqxi7vSgHQ5eF3rULPRwrIorUzusQJ5LOPtOcZMPeSKwx8B3F81hVvNcjStcWATtSwNTiUjx7dFMCn3FkRdW8H92VNJnsw-2BkSLGPnUSd12YW-2B2UliAI8-2BlsavTNdxxqIowY6whYo0w-3D))
- **Clive Thompson** noted COMEX warehouse silver stocks are "around 50% lower than they were in 2021" and are falling again over the last 30 days. ([Commodity Culture, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhHiAbHsl-2B56T3dqmBiYJGxeG6rcK6roXBYevLuMH2QjUaHliV0iXzxgBwYvXodX9-2FOaDpyI9JdeA4zLP-2Fk7JxyNozebma31BZ90YGsj-2FcFmQ-3D-3DgW7N_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5sE-2FX70iissJrUEuWXeg3pCvVLFLKeXpE2Qbpzukg7r22lw1gnsmMQBiQgshm-2BZtOiX9ZFY9ZvWGm8QgySY4Tlq9hbx-2BJf-2F-2BRnAdhxQ7CpG8egb6TuM-2BMHhsLHGiYDJsxdyxQYkz-2BBvx2mwa-2B6yzaQ8-3D))

### Platinum and palladium (PGMs)

Money Metals put platinum at $1,788 (down 1.4%) and palladium at $1,292 (down 2.5%) as of Friday Sept 25 ([Money Metals' Weekly Market Wrap, Sept 25](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgOxWLu1JnVBZwhmJDkgs9C-2Bb4NGu6Zy7wQqUW6kMSOxUMzJWHwYP0KUTgcCNydSbNy6yqOMItd7uws4n2wmF4QBO-2B9F4jGSCahx4lWpDlGKA-3D-3DWSo1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5kfcO6haM18A2byzzDjjltj7PFj9Rq3XXk2K4pV-2BGOsaoU-2B3kw-2BYsMtDGm1I6CRoG-2Fl0w1vTpWVTZm8iWVbMcrMc3g5GYZSCplpj-2BghOIIMqWboAm5GQCzS1X1QGv4cO-2F5TwU2ixvwuJtnvI6Q54-2Bxs-3D)). By Wednesday the Contrarian Capitalist had platinum at $1,699 (down 4.4% on the week) and palladium at $1,203 (down 4.9%) ([The Contrarian Capitalist, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiioXbGh-2BRV-2Ba9EBIbV1RJwh9Ynab7ulxuH-2BXPJDIZ1F-2BKAgoJOeFlqlb6HVb23rRyN1Xg2Hv3nmaTcUkrHoCp-2Feu6vewf-2Firl9hETgnShfNQ-3D-3DAHfz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5hP7n-2F4eszXxu590rKAkb5-2Faiiy9-2FaQVigwnYvxvAwxcoqZ7jqeph9tj2bi94IwiMU7CL05uigb4E91L2m1oRWPiX0rf0jOmZD1yaM9IOl6tkymZzRyY2wDvKt4PvaTRx5YFcgL9NVKjB4vn7c3kXA4-3D)). Steve Barton on **In it to Win it (Sept 27)** said he was adding palladium at about $1,250 and sees platinum's chart pattern resolving by October 13 with a downside tilt ([In it to Win it, Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRpm9Va8Tu5fRO-2BredxKhzLC2fEQlWrqw7Qy61XmmDtQGMbxL-2Bn6CIY5qz-2BP1r93LNorLb6RxFskPn9y-2FtwgF-2FQbsjvYzSb-2BDHSPZlun8Kqw-3D-3Dktrl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbW2xZCCtoulT58uHcDdNH9dK2knFN25rc-2B2SAFgAZL-2B5u8HV-2B8NrOzeutjIcQ-2FIJGt-2FajYTUu-2FAeVwz3GWqjS9MdwjOO28F5qIZt1VeW5dxxQvNCzULhHKUdAySpLgv44E59G4Pz9SxktPYNNde9YfZBGHBLBFN3FNMLDT-2BKzQjXnnOt1L-2F5zLGcGNws9gYlA4-3D)).

## What to watch next

- **Gold's floor: $4,100, then $3,950–$4,000.** That is the June/July double-bottom zone that Erfle, Grummes, the KE Report hosts and Schiff all named. A clean break opens Grummes' "worst case" of $3,500.
- **Silver at $54, then $48.** These are the KE Report and Hemke lines in the sand.
- **The September jobs report on Friday, October 2.** Hemke and Erfle both flagged it as a likely source of volatility, along with this week's PCE inflation data.
- **China's Golden Week (Oct 1–7).** Chinese buyers return after the holiday, and Erfle sees that as a possible catalyst.
- **The FOMC meeting on October 28.** Futures odds of another hike were cited at about 50% (Hemke, Sept 28) and about 70% (Erfle, Sept 29).
- **Q3 miner earnings, starting in about a month.** Hemke expects an average gold price near $4,300, about flat on Q2, so results are "not going to be that bad."
- **Treasury bond buybacks.** Watch whether the $4–6 billion operations get bigger. Thompson, Felder and Hemke all see a larger program as the bullish turning point.

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