Newsletter · 2026-10-01 · Ashutosh Agarwal

Bill Ackman's Uber and Fannie Mae Calls Are Both Underwater - Track Record - October 2025 to September 2026

A historical scorecard of Pershing Square's Bill Ackman, who called Uber's dominance something that only goes up on October 10, 2025 and said he was as bullish as ever on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on May 4, 2026, measured through the September 30, 2026 close. Uber fell 26.6% against the S&P 500's 16.8% gain, and Fannie Mae fell 51.4% and Freddie Mac 49.4% against the index's 6.3%. Verdict: Wrong so far, on both.

Track Record

Bill Ackman, October 2025 to September 2026

This is a historical review of two calls, one made on October 10, 2025 (Uber) and one on May 4, 2026 (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), with performance measured through the September 30, 2026 close. It was published on October 1, 2026; the prices and grades below are as of the September 30, 2026 cutoff.

This issue: Bill Ackman of Pershing Square. He called Uber's dominance something that "only goes up" four days after the stock's all-time high, and said he was "as bullish as ever" on Fannie and Freddie on the day they peaked for the year. Verdict: Wrong so far, on both.

The Call

Bill Ackman runs Pershing Square. He is one of the best-known activist investors alive, and he talks about his positions on podcasts more than most. This issue grades two of those positions, because both now make up a large part of his portfolio.

Call #1: Uber (UBER). "That dominance actually only goes up over time."

• Who / where: Bill Ackman, a guest on Value Investing with Legends with Columbia Business School's Michael Mauboussin and Tano Santos.
• Episode: Value Investing with Legends, "Bill Ackman - Evolving Investment Playbook, From MBIA to Moats" (October 10, 2025).
• Ticker: UBER. Pershing began buying in January 2025, and Uber is now one of its biggest positions.

Ackman's case is that Uber is a "royalty" business. It takes a cut of a huge, recurring activity and needs very little capital to grow:

"Universal Music is a royalty on people listening to music. And Hilton's a royalty on people staying in hotels. And Uber's a royalty on people getting driven around."

He named the main risk himself, which was robotaxis built by Tesla:

"The threat to Uber is that Tesla is going to produce a car every five seconds at a very low cost. And just the entire universe is going to become Teslas. And their market share will be so significant that they'll displace the platform. That's the risk."

He then explained why he thinks that risk will not happen. If many companies end up building self-driving cars, customers will still open the app that offers the fastest, cheapest ride. In his view that marketplace is Uber:

"Over time, we think Uber has got a very dominant position there. And we think that dominance actually only goes up over time."

What he predicted: He was bullish, and he described the stake as a long-term holding. He gave no price target or deadline. The thesis rests on one claim: self-driving cars help Uber's marketplace rather than destroy it.

Call #2: Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC). "As bullish as ever."

• Who / where: Bill Ackman, live from the Milken conference with Carl Quintanilla and Sarah Eisen.
• Episode: CNBC's Money Movers, "Pershing Square's Bill Ackman, CFTC Chairman, Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt 5/4/26" (May 4, 2026).
• Tickers: FNMA and FMCC. Both trade "over the counter", the loosely regulated market for stocks that are not listed on a major exchange. Pershing has held them for more than a decade.

Some background. Fannie and Freddie are the two government-sponsored companies that buy and guarantee most US home mortgages. The government took them over in 2008, a status called "conservatorship." Shareholders have waited ever since for the government to hand them back. Ackman set out a three-step plan to unlock their value:

"The government injected $191 billion into both companies. Government got repaid $301 billion, which is that preferred investment plus almost a 12% interest rate."

"The government exercises the warrants it owns... And then you list on the New York Stock Exchange. And those three steps will unlock hundreds of billions of value. So I think the probability of that occurring, I think, is very high."

He was sure it would happen but would not say when:

"I think it's inevitable. I think it will happen. I just don't know. The president's been busy, but he'll get to it."

The hosts said the stocks had moved sharply higher during the segment and asked if he was "as bullish as ever." Ackman answered:

"Absolutely. On both. Very much so, yes."

What he predicted: He was bullish on both stocks. The steps he named were for the government to acknowledge it had been repaid, exercise its warrants (the right to buy shares at a fixed price) and relist the companies on the NYSE. He set no price target or deadline. He said he was "patient," because Pershing has "been involved in these investments for a while."

What Happened

All prices are daily closes through September 30, 2026. The comparison is the S&P 500 over the same window.

Uber

• The timing was poor. Uber's highest close ever was $100.10 on October 6, 2025, four days before the podcast. It reached $99.72 again on November 3, then started falling. The low since the call was $65.94 on July 24, 2026.
• The business itself kept growing. Q4 2025 revenue rose 20% to $14.37 billion, and gross bookings (the total value of rides and orders) rose 22% to $54.14 billion (February 2026). In Q1 2026, trips rose 20% to 3.6 billion (May 6, 2026).
• Results do not explain the fall. Fear of robotaxis does. On January 7, 2026, Jefferies wrote that "escalating autonomous vehicle concerns" had pushed Uber shares down about 17% since late September. The stock traded down 8% to $71.40 early on February 4, 2026, after a Q4 earnings miss and below-consensus guidance. Wedbush cut its target to $75 and wrote that investors were "overestimating Uber's position" once self-driving cars arrive (February 2026). Three weeks later, Waymo opened fully driverless service in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando (February 24, 2026).
• Uber is paying to protect itself. It is spending money to line up self-driving partners, rather than relying on its marketplace alone. Examples include a commitment of up to $1.25 billion in Rivian (March 19, 2026) and an 11.5% stake in Lucid (April 20, 2026).

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

• May 4 was the high. The rally the hosts mentioned turned out to be the top. FNMA's $8.68 close that day is its highest since. Its lowest close since was $4.17 on September 29, 2026.
• None of the three steps has happened. The government has not acknowledged repayment, exercised its warrants or relisted the companies.
• Brokers had doubts even before the podcast. On May 1, three days earlier, Wedbush downgraded Fannie and said momentum toward an IPO or release had "arguably stalled" until after the midterm elections.
• President Trump's comments were mixed. On June 5 he said the two companies were probably worth a combined $1 trillion, and the shares jumped 9%. Later that day he said IPOs were not off the table "but there's no rush."
• Wall Street turned against the trade. BTIG downgraded both stocks on June 16 because it had "limited visibility into the timing" of any release. On September 27, Keefe Bruyette cut its Fannie target to $3.50. It saw a "growing likelihood that privatization does not occur" and said that even if it does, common shareholders would be diluted as the government's senior preferred shares convert to common stock.

The Verdict

Uber: Wrong (so far)

The stock has lost a quarter of its value while the market gained 17%, a gap of 43 points in under a year. Measured from when Pershing began buying in early January 2025, Uber is up about 8.5%, which is roughly a fifth of the S&P's 30% gain.

Where Ackman deserves credit:

• His business thesis has held up. Rides, bookings and members are all still growing at 20% or more.
• He named the risk honestly. He identified Tesla and robotaxis on the record, before the market began punishing the stock for exactly that.
• One year is short for this kind of call. "Over time" means years to him. If self-driving cars do end up on Uber's app rather than replacing it, today's price will look cheap.

The uncomfortable part:

• The risk he named is what has driven the stock. He spotted the threat but underrated how much the market would discount it. "That dominance actually only goes up" is the opposite of what investors have been pricing for twelve months.
• His adds have lost money too. He added near $74 in April and called the stock "very cheap" near $72 in July. It is now $68.51.
• The position is large. On The Compound and Friends, "Treasury Yields Break Out, How to Invest with Bill Ackman..." (Aug 18, 2026), Josh Brown put Uber at 12% of Pershing's holdings, its second-largest position. Brown said the stock was "getting rejected hard at the 200-day," meaning it kept failing to climb above its 200-day average price.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Wrong (so far)

This is the worse of the two calls. Both stocks have halved in five months while the market rose. His "As bullish as ever" came on the day they hit their high. His message was that the steps were "inevitable" and the timing unknown. So far the market has punished the unknown timing and ignored the inevitability.

To be fair to Ackman:

• He never gave a date. He said he was patient, and Pershing has held through worse.
• The facts he cited are real. The government did put in $191 billion and has taken out about $301 billion.
• This is not over. Mizuho started coverage the same morning with a $10 target. It gave Fannie a 30% chance of a "fast exit" from government control by 2028 (May 4, 2026).

The hard part:

• The case rests entirely on politics. The value can only be unlocked by a decision in Washington. The President has said "there's no rush," and the FHFA chief, Bill Pulte, spent the summer doubling as acting Director of National Intelligence.
• Even success may not pay shareholders in full. Keefe's dilution warning means that release alone may not deliver what common shareholders expect.
• "Absolutely. On both. Very much so" was effectively a recommendation to listeners. Anyone who bought on CNBC that day has lost half their money.

Have They Changed Their Tune?

On Uber: no. He doubled down twice.

• Bloomberg Talks, "Pershing Square Founder & CEO Bill Ackman Talks Public IPO, Investment Strategy" (April 29, 2026). The hosts noted that Uber and Meta had "had a good run" and asked whether it was time to double down. Ackman said:

  "Actually, I think the companies you mentioned are very cheap stocks today... we're going to just add to existing positions, which will give us more ownership."

• Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin, "Bill Ackman on His Investing Playbook, His Bullish and Bearish Bets, and What Could Trigger the Next 2008" (July 20, 2026). He put Uber on a list of great businesses that had long been "too expensive" and had finally become cheap:

  "I put Amazon on that list, Meta on that list, Uber on that list, Microsoft, you know, businesses that we've always admired were always too expensive."

On Fannie and Freddie: he has not spoken about them on a podcast since May 4. His two most recent long-form appearances do not mention them: The Knowledge Project, "Bill Ackman: The Biggest Fight of His Life" (Sept 29, 2026) and Bloomberg Talks on Howard Hughes and IPOs (Sept 30, 2026). Meanwhile, the hosts of Chit Chat Stocks, "Nvidia's $500 Billion AI Consortium, Berkshire Buybacks, Ackman Buys Netflix" (Aug 14, 2026) called Fannie and Freddie names he has "lost a lot of money on." We have not seen him walk back the call publicly.

Running Scorecard

Bill Ackman (first appearance)

The full Track Record docket to date

Bill Ackman is the first investor in this series to get a "Wrong" grade, and he got two in one issue. An Uber footnote: Brad Gerstner sold his Uber stake in November 2024 to buy Tesla. That call was graded Mixed, but on Uber it has aged better than Ackman's.

Next issue: David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital).