# Mortgage Rates Hit 7.6 Percent Then a Weak Jobs Report Pulls Yields Back - Housing & Real Estate - Week of October 2, 2026

> Housing and real estate podcast synthesis for the week of October 2, 2026. The 30-year mortgage ran to about 7.6%, its highest since November 2023, and the 10-year Treasury touched 5.34% before a 29,000 September jobs print pulled yields and October Fed-hike odds back; Lennar missed and Berkshire added to roughly a 10% stake, while apartment landlords faced a refinancing wall even as new supply dried up.

## Housing & Real Estate

### Week of October 2, 2026: Mortgage Rates Hit 7.6 Percent Then a Weak Jobs Report Pulls Yields Back

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The bond market still hadn't calmed down after the Fed's hike. This week it got worse before it got better.

By Wednesday, the average 30-year mortgage was about 7.6%. That's the highest since November 2023. Three weeks ago it was under 6.9%. Then on Friday morning a very weak jobs report came out, bond yields fell back, and traders lowered their bets on another Fed hike in October.

So the week ends on a small exhale. But the damage to buyers' budgets is already done, and the podcasts were full of people working out what that means.

## TL;DR (for the 15-second read)

* *Rates jumped hard, then pulled back on Friday.* The 30-year mortgage got to about 7.5%–7.6%. The 10-year Treasury touched 5.34% and the 30-year Treasury hit 5.69%, its highest since 2002. Then September payrolls came in at just 29,000, and the odds of an October Fed hike dropped from about 70% to about 50%.
* *Lennar disappointed, and Berkshire kept buying.* Lennar missed on earnings, orders fell 9%, and it cut its delivery forecast to 80,000–81,000 homes. Berkshire Hathaway bought another $212 million of Lennar stock and now owns roughly 10% of the company.
* *The housing picture is split by geography and by asset.* Economist David Rosenberg says home values are quietly "deflating." But Chicago contracts are up 22% year over year and Texas sales are ahead of last year. Apartment landlords face a debt problem, and new building has dropped sharply, which is what eventually ends a glut.

## What's new this week

*Mortgage rates had their fastest run-up in years.* On [The Exchange (Sep 25)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjij54Bm9iqkACrRJd6SA4DUkaPZl9k684YrUpIRSM5vfqau5gKUQUp58ta6YHHs5J5psmtAROLm9wxLChaF2qeHV9l0lErKpl7CN3hkGd8hQ-3D-3D0mXr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BLLoWUPkjiIm6wHMSKopjUWMKUJTMotU3wiCKzo8sfHcaINKq0L9Q-2FKo1HZCjewZtFbwgVt3EeiixLWhNyJPW8dS2jZzzoYuUGDaD99NnTxIbHTpD-2FCMNclM34J7zPBBhA-3D-3D), CNBC's Diana Olick reported that the 30-year fixed hit 7.49% that morning, according to Mortgage News Daily. It rose "a total of 28 basis points in just two days." (A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 28 of them is 0.28%.)

She also put it in dollars. The last low was 5.99%, "the day before the Iran war started in March." On a $450,000 home with 20% down, the monthly payment of principal and interest was $2,156 back then. Now it's "just over $350 a month more."

By Wednesday it was higher still. On [Power Lunch (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhHvR-2Fy-2FG-2BEr92zZJHLRAmVaplX84UyYpNlXEUIey3NLk-2F-2Boe29cKKkLACv0c98w46FzbOmyhio0v4Nd7qbxwBIQKziw31k55cVuPbicm1ZUg-3D-3DN1Hq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BH-2BTavIvq5iSIn6Gv7f3yP9wVuTWY7ujBiMdE8stxk7RbxBbeIl5O6PZ-2BFtDY5vDO36E6GdsVUx8zW5aguwfMbHx2mPk8Aljmbiv8VNIbwQYvs7U92RBzNMC5pF6gQNAEA-3D-3D), the host put the 30-year fixed at 7.6%, "the highest since November of 23." Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily (he runs the daily rate index, so he is an insider here), explained why you'll see different numbers in different places. The weekly surveys lag. And Freddie Mac's survey doesn't count upfront fees:

*"In Freddie's case specifically, they don't include upfront points in the methodology. So that can have an impact at a time like this when upfront points and buy-downs and discounts are more common."*

In other words, the popular Freddie Mac number (around 7.3%) probably makes things look a bit better than they are.

Mike Mills, a North Texas mortgage banker, gave the clearest timeline on [The Texas Real Estate & Finance Podcast (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiXFtgaOyiTlSmGryaH5f4oyXv-2B9U-2BgFQjoO9HPqQN6LpsFuRVFbvBuP6ckXabj05HnrLjj42TdDS4J5izrZvKDeTEJADkVp7qsfpUgicx66w-3D-3DZIGV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BOzn8NnxCbADXuTx5ZTyFcqC8Mci-2Fld1i4-2BajPeomQheJdy9mST3rwcTwO9taRjvExbhXzXLNReCz11IkuyJ1zEjoAbF11fj3c4P730sz4BzSokXeJT7DLzzYRDplxvYjQ-3D-3D):

*"Three weeks ago, the 30-year mortgage was at 6.89. Today, it's 7.58. The biggest three-week move that we've seen in years... Well, oil dropped 4% today, and rates went up anyway."*

That last line matters. For months, the story was "oil up, rates up." This week rates rose even on a day oil fell. Mills blames the strong AI and data-center economy pushing up borrowing costs, and he has a nice line on who pays for it: "Nobody buying a house this month got a raise because someone built a server farm."

*Mortgage spreads are now the swing factor.* Your mortgage rate is roughly the 10-year Treasury rate plus a "spread," which is the extra return investors want for holding mortgage bonds instead of government bonds. On [HousingWire Daily (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgY0cn4hZzX8tqB43X4pXwajsWFFj6PRDCPv2PF0Wi9lRvItHX9PgwwrZdsbsGqsdoH24UXYtiP0wGC-2FoZmes6IauxF9l5yA5VkidzOWmTaJw-3D-3DHTQY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BOSB1xauixBbm6WSBE78kpxeIRL3AOqjS-2Fmr-2BaSylqjviSAGSR383wCaEkzCpNb1l3gUzbAzquyPui0r1oKyswVEozcxY-2FRWNlUEt7peBEbKpfOGvj73WbUdQQ1mLdG1sA-3D-3D), the host made a striking point about history:

*"Mortgage spreads are the only thing that are preventing rates from being higher... the last time spreads were that bad was in 1986... got as high as 3.37."*

His read: 5.14% on the 10-year has "broken," and 5.40% is the next level to watch. He says housing data tends to hold up when mortgage rates stay "under 6.64." We are well above that now.

Mortgage bonds weakened again midweek. On [Chrisman Commentary (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgiFP6foz-2FXMeUZiJp7Se1J3qE72kx2CJTvAGTbqGt8BwLWw6RrgHu5TzsBzjY0x5rO5EpSq6bv1lAdOciAi6ZVWQljVWO7rDDoVk4cAfzeBw-3D-3DRKmW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BMWutHOZLDgXEkhPyKM7tdhT5i9BZfNWBxyyo775AtNi5O1hJwHPpB64km5RAbVUmzP9sJDcXgzq1PiyjTqtwmq4q4Ky-2FT22vwqZVxxXomaDph-2BnvB-2Fb9yBm330rLSLn1w-3D-3D), the daily note said mortgage bond prices fell "roughly a quarter point," and "the current coupon rose 5 basis points to 6.40%." (The "current coupon" is the yield on newly issued mortgage bonds. It's the best single number for where mortgage rates are heading.) Last week it was 6.22%.

*Then Friday's jobs report changed the mood.* The headline on [Bloomberg Surveillance (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiF0sXD4JFbaJxdAGb-2BdCaB9fHiZK719G-2Flj4Rh6Hchrgju8afTx1qWdZRQpk78V4VxZzegwAI0hU9-2By4S6NhwydgPthc38Y9SnnWghp85MWA-3D-3Ddats_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BBlN83M5JywQw48Le8TY-2BlazIcW4rkMKM-2FKAJjuzf8ZEK4YMZjOGQknTWxJ-2F2wNDe1yAuHoFh-2FpveSAHO3J-2BRSQgZJRQ3GxU-2FaArk7T74u9VT7EDMKsR2-2BFkFStlKw8ZRA-3D-3D) said it all: US firms added just 29,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up. Forecasts earlier in the week were around 95,000, according to [Chrisman Commentary (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjbTs6CBTFtyW1VYlhwDQDel6fNa-2FUHjK01txRcDBUCplGcGHOrNpstZJGtDFiJHCsIEZw3Ys9AgVyctQ1OYTpoShx7Om7pt76ebwthyWIddw-3D-3Dt1NR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BNHiib-2FENtO1Z5EoU9BK6IXhuNatKmMwmfPbJ7lN6-2FrOL7ADxLZBujNIsrpNsdeoVvNenX-2BVlBHTwW4KDhH-2FAD5t79W5dNxFn78SEQPa84cHZSHb2sNiyIszB3G5K9IZFA-3D-3D).

On [Chrisman Commentary (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhh2wR-2BbtjT9jwLMNsBreBvlX93E2tE5md8HS97mMMXE-2F7sDjJ24AIHx2lXyxZUanQZB-2Bo-2FFkYS1-2BBNlgKBAfKgiuDrbmNatr-2BoeJzw3xsH7A-3D-3DQzyN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BH1-2BDkYQBuRH-2BRkpDfa0vXxx99ZeEd6fpMroO69mvwb8Z3A2wIynSynJmlc1T8LRHTkGEr-2F3-2B8-2BsIOxGYBXO374rHk1qcPL74PU9-2FC1M6MTQA6iGoIgd0bVxiSJYEbR5IA-3D-3D), the morning note described a sharp reversal. The 10-year had touched 5.34% and the 30-year 5.69%, "its highest since 2002," before falling back. The two-year yield dropped 10 basis points to 4.79%. "Markets sharply reduced the implied probability of an October 25 basis point Fed hike." Mortgage bonds bounced too, with "the Fannie 6.0 coupon recovering from 97.24 to 98.10 and spreads tightening broadly."

On [TreppWire episode 425 (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgdYfQqdww1FWCbL7kKSKUE2MnaQye3me9BCwat7ZCCNn-2BoB1-2BD5ZAGVokAMQo0CWBoieCPGBEfXSnFg71fmP6N8AYPH8c7CRMvECakfHn01A-3D-3Dqxyt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BO5gTxC91PvBrzElekTnESd6D38675lEPUutd6eI8oi95RbnR29BCPBAGqFsQZzIh9-2B1grHodGMB7Pr-2Brd6ZSJLmSP5k5s1oxDG2pmxY2NUhSr6Jz-2BrP4-2BtkwKXMS8XtBA-3D-3D), Trepp's team put October hike odds as "going from 70% to 50%." But they also warned against reading too much into one report. A Fed pause "is a timeout... it doesn't change the score."

Economist Claudia Sahm, also on Bloomberg Surveillance, agreed that this isn't 2022 all over again:

*"They've done a quarter point. Maybe they do another, maybe two more this year. That is not a, like, hiking cycle like 2022."*

She called the job market "pretty stable. It's not in a great place."

*The Fed's own view: nobody knows how high rates need to go.* On [Bloomberg Talks (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhf1eGza4z6nZvHRWnu2ZHYowtRLP2TONbhNNoDvbiBqPwzjdAXq9dvNS9sdqHYAbtLp8dpJ0IPRKnc-2FaQEkw-2BCfKqqYUboDUVE7QmRmTt3UQ-3D-3DFkZM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BON6Z6N9i6pa8HPCDiS0oAocCLIJ21ZxycG3cECqirW09Xre9fOCYv24OzTT3R1w-2FUEbmPTWrQlYxHsakDSYHnMtKV8w2-2BYnVi5-2BJBq1h1IUFJxHZ-2F9b1yR-2BH1HDvgqgFw-3D-3D), Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was unusually frank: "How high do rates have to go? I don't know the answer to that." His bigger point is about AI. He described "massive demand for investment capital," which has to be funded from savings. "Ultimately, that is a higher clearing price for that capital... that means rates go higher." That's a Fed official saying, in plain words, that the floor under rates may have moved up for a while.

*Lennar missed, and Berkshire bought more anyway.* On [Telltales (Sep 27)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh3aavQbXUt7XUdJqFlPNnnLE0ltMgAkYoj8N0rt7A-2F7KVAtFcDVlov0kYwaNgpyUSqvGI7BwxKh4mife0wJkHcmCUV-2BJsNky-2FA-2BTvUAhRwmA-3D-3DqS5h_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BGXQ4iJR2LM4uHISR4kQrodKwuREM6pqWLjFUXORsiEfq88TJ06FajH0Z-2FD486redGxOa6IYH-2FkZ1mm4U6vXohrBCj2HmFZegJ2Mg4IDJQam1xwYMo3JISxefoVzRb0nKw-3D-3D), hosts Ava Cabot and Marcus Graham went through the quarter. Lennar earned $1.23 a share against $1.29 expected, with revenue down 8%. New orders fell 9%. It cut about 2,000 homes from its full-year delivery forecast, to 80,000–81,000.

And yet: "Berkshire Hathaway bought $212 million of the stock across three September sessions and took the position past 10% of the company." (On [The Morning Filter (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6Knr61NQGniBwlu-2F8u5MTkepObkWpHdNhuSbi9tvh3RgRnXVoZC0CW9qMA8QvQ70Z3ROp-2FNME5Ys-2B48v55xpoZxvLjZfckqQTDXOFdPl4aw-3D-3DW_Tr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BOQMO4QAdsbmJanUkaI-2Bxbq4PIPPGdTM2khVxyCK2DVm0bY-2FYqQKgRl-2F1fkR2bUVRny6mW18mOCVREza1IkcwO3nTSvSHNf4g-2BgWVrqyw684AZwmgOT8y1sb9C8jboBRiw-3D-3D), Morningstar's Dave Sekera put it at 9.9%, so call it roughly 10%.) The hosts' advice on what to watch next:

*"Orders are what I'd track into the next print because that is the number that tells you whether this is a cycle bottom or a step down."*

## The debate

This week has real arguments on both sides, though the bears had more of the airtime.

*Bull case: there aren't enough homes, and new supply is drying up.*

* *The shortage puts a floor under prices.* On [Ones and Tooze (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgg2VcfSXWQxNkIV31LS5X98c5aLIp-2F1hkfbe5GUTfT1Or7yMa1VkSoc81UEVB00sUUUk993knV0qbi8-2BFONbkKxSOjih4Y0gHiDEftzAKPSQ-3D-3DDxV8_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BF-2B7-2BH7Cq5vHMmrQlivKS3obuX-2BUwB1NMj9bvfRyVJQAFifGI-2Buiro4r5tY6ET4rEDhnw7G-2FcGkMAbbN8GJ81wDooipTy-2FW4wphn0zsW-2B5KAUw6JdxJDzThvSGxAKY75LA-3D-3D), Columbia historian Adam Tooze (pundit) said that "structurally... there's a deficit, a fairly substantial deficit. And so prices are remaining stuck high." Owners with cheap mortgages simply won't sell into 7% rates.
* *Locked-in owners aren't going anywhere.* A housing-data guest on [Squawk on the Street (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh1xY2Bf-2F2oedZ9C7PWkk2VaHbWcArecOgVUqbgUtzN7fhcxC77FUKSDzHqOGSG2gsEyuwpiavDyfdDcp3UxLmWcH8LKx3I7bR8t82xH4fcGg-3D-3DNXR-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BKMaPh4g8slp1TDGr6Dbqirf6ZqHTxqjuveNgxVsviGUUPQ-2BTwYYs1Hx-2FU5k6FCwwvvQztN-2B4qoFaX-2FiimeBs0i6XyrzNQ4aSVXUOOgm1D3QBD4DEKusNmd1q7Rnhbk9oA-3D-3D) (pundit) said "over half of borrowers still have mortgage rates below 4.5%," and roughly half are below 4%.
* *Some local markets are genuinely strong.* Crain's reporter Dennis Rodkin (pundit) on [Crain's Daily Gist (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqRNIMNYgyCRnNUUJqV79VnYDsclQuJWqCLSNWPjZ7Fc0e4hsX6f41Z7dPpY-2FDHwQv5RzolT5CEvBs-2Fk2TgoLJlw2mYXS25p5NOeaoBUkPiA-3D-3DJTNk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BGLoIeTloRm8HfeebMKBNTAWz6I-2BXWyPQ6NuoqJIpaORk-2BqWXBk70EBZuKdRzkvQ2nUoVcfBr3GgioIan9yYy9mRZ6B4BLeWic-2FwW3cCUcS1PoGrDbSd6953Eo-2FcYPho7g-3D-3D): "We had 22% more homes go under contract in the 6 weeks surrounding that Labor Day weekend... than went under contract at the same time last year. Demand does not seem to be crumbling." Mike Mills (operator) says "Texas closed sales have been running ahead of last year for months."
* *No sign of a crash, because people are still paying their mortgages.* Dave Meyer (pundit) on [On The Market (Sep 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhaSsyz53vT8WJt0qOXskegH6dYmpbRteqMIaUrJMJTIo-2FNEBtRxENkaSgdF-2Fdr3b-2BmX0rpMoSgyplftQ0Bf6m5pfNZ1vDITKA2dq014Ett-2FA-3D-3DvOil_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BFr8Akq2k1G7NuB8qjaakBnnxmRHDGk0nREtscwcYr634DRlud2cpkt8PeX5-2BC-2F-2FsXv-2BF9jpiVgf3I-2F1Hpl1GVIr7SUwO0Qh2vXPfpHmQ2mytmWbTd9-2B3BIEKThShmtYOw-3D-3D) said even at 8% he'd expect prices to fall perhaps "3% to 4%" next year instead of 1%–2%, not collapse. "The average American homeowner still paying their mortgage on time." Early-stage delinquencies, he said, are going down.
* *Builders' stocks shrugged this leg off.* A host on [Squawk on the Street (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhRTsj-2FXJYr-2FdESCrtub8RrkRPuQmfQgTYfMMYmObx1meVG8THMBZ-2FPhcCzbqPS9itUoDTwJ0L9y9QuQ-2FvMTSBy4-2BSYB2IQMO7q1PhuRQR2aQ-3D-3DJmgm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BLq4OSvCTTnrQrkTRosNwezPtKPxS4rrI-2BcGDBQR7GTCw4Ge3F7CiF-2F4Y5P9Tc4oChtsZQGtkg5wZQVPAsaWpsX4iC5xtooGzJZR7XAgHGRl4B6bY5eYvDQFnAPq6ftBYA-3D-3D) noted the latest rate jump hadn't caused extra weakness in homebuilder shares. And long-term money (Berkshire) is buying.

*Bear case: prices are already slipping and affordability has hit a wall.*

* *Home values are "deflating."* David Rosenberg (pundit) on [Macro Voices #552 (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj45unsX4lYI9kCMVKuCi8YEUL3kkjq0t9YCYd1AAoBXbVqE3tnJjWaGPHPGO8dcnLW-2Bs8c8vt4t1Q70F45uy3fktXULkEsZ37mm939ITbY4w-3D-3Dgzai_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BKRE7OdqZyK56Bn2ae-2FPiSj7WDC4CG8dcY42brSjAfj-2FxERo2yj6wJT7PNV7nnIXTqEZ2lpYcYsdj3AJ5u1gsRb4MpFwMIojRzDc7x-2BdDjfKz1qaAXS7Jqosh1qelUMrPQ-3D-3D):

*"We still have eight and a half months supply of inventory and new home prices on average are down eight and a half percent... In this $50 trillion asset class called residential real estate, it's deflating. Nobody's talking about it."*

* *The most inventory in six years.* Meyer on [BiggerPockets (Sep 25)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2BPFV1B0UkJ72GNOnHEAoKxW-2BCTl1U5KpNhX-2BlUMNoS42QKnrOCjOpe-2BDlFa8TagMBMbCkLDaGR3XC21qcoJZk7JxO-2F731gP08iqHliPEaYQ-3D-3DLWCC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BPE1gQjg-2BAqvPZDznBTGvYALJpKY5WkPNa0n12pkfrf7Gc6P4keE-2F66rBbKwbvLbVq3zjBdeHTCSccr6a-2FiTPTYnH7xVeQ4mLXgUuVi7Q8q9cbLqzRfqJBa-2BFs-2FmTIkhIA-3D-3D): "There are more homes for sale in the U.S. right now than at any point since 2020, and mortgage rates are near 7% with no relief in sight." He expects rates to "stay near 7%" through year-end.
* *Logan Mohtashami is making the case for 8%.* Meyer, again on On The Market, said the HousingWire analyst he calls "pretty much always right about everything" came out with "the case for 8% rates." Meyer also said mortgage purchase applications "dropped 20% in one week." BlackRock, he added, is reportedly stress-testing for a 9% 10-year yield. He stressed that's a worst-case drill, "not around the corner."
* *Affordability is the worst since mid-2025.* The Squawk on the Street guest (Oct 2) said "headline affordability" is "the most challenged it's been since the middle of last year." On the same show, the hosts noted "Lennar's down, Horton's down, Depot's down."
* *Real buyers feel it in their monthly budget.* Two Springfield, Missouri agents (operators) on [Simply Authentic (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgFPyzuNo4bpv-2FPG8n7c-2BFxdpCRRe0mO9BPhnwGM8gUaVbKjBjklt4LuvZ-2BCDicgnOYklclqU65kZyAJl9GUAXB-2BAV9U9gpWgy54y3OD96GDA-3D-3DOya4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BLy1UmuVaIUq7brs1-2FzYAhazoQyJltl1jacO4GykHLrcxVEIGQ62dk-2FREZlGgSYoTmp7NJAbjZOqyTDbkvqu7Z1nSBTCXSkHdbN3snsVQ8DryzWKiQhJLu3FHA6-2FiMowjA-3D-3D) said a buyer might be "approved for 200,000, but the actual payment... might be $300 off from what the buyer actually can spend." Days on market in Christian County rose to 51 from 38 a year ago.

## The names in play

*Lennar (LEN).* This is now a test of patience. The bear case is the numbers: orders down 9%, a lower delivery forecast, and, per Telltales, net debt of "10.5 billion against that 1.8 billion of trailing free cash flow." (Free cash flow is the cash left after running the business and paying for investment.) The bull case is who's buying. Morningstar's Dave Sekera (pundit) rates it four stars at a "32% discount" to his fair value. He floated an intriguing idea:

*"If that stock were to trade down that much more from here and they already own 9.9%, who knows? Maybe they take a run at the overall company and merge that in with some of their other housing investments."*

He's careful to call it "a leveraged play on interest rates," which works only if long-term rates "come down or at least stabilize." Next catalyst: the December quarter's order number, which is the one Telltales says will separate "a cycle bottom" from "a step down."

*Home Depot (HD).* A retail-investor view, not an insider one, but a useful framing. On [GenExDividendInvestor (Sep 26)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgRygUMJaTAe6Oz4vZ0ukDMm8EBsVFaSRUgiXuPa-2BHDhWG8lkmGFURjj3o03l3tTEZCDPM0SFHqlfoAje9x8Gb1i8DiUW2WDXpZmZlbM2HJvg-3D-3DHsje_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BIrkK8PuZCqzMN-2BO7iA-2F39MhyBwtlPsuH98ApqPgEBAteGkP-2FpyjR8nq21TnPR1HVjM6eLJppzLv0wFyhaK8GLVbnaCfwrgX4E-2B2IYLxz8cPbzrMXSwJCzZH-2Bfvzrr-2BdWw-3D-3D), the host noted adjusted earnings per share slid from $15.25 in fiscal 2023 to $14.69 in fiscal 2025, and that two supplier acquisitions pushed debt to roughly $50 billion. His summary: "Customers mostly didn't stop shopping at Home Depot, they just stopped taking on big projects." Big projects need home sales and home-equity loans, and both get harder at 7.5%.

## Read-throughs

*Mortgage lenders.* The people who price loans for a living were blunt. On [Optimal Insights (Sep 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgZ0q-2BJ9AcgkM4L1BY5vQNgG6glaDQWl3bHAsEAJfWJg7eLDLDAVmOQ-2BVYq1-2BOyTHfSY4wHCAEtfFRlgowLp2UY86ebgGO5owh-2Fpm-2Fha-2BqJlg-3D-3D4egU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BG0K058RYDw083zmiRFXwfz52-2BJkEEeBpKiU86-2FFkyxvKgyOymfKIhuzLW9aIz53orPsk997TV4VyPQaAkzBnzD8Hp2c6SnJCQNYmGjZY1VlIOe9N1UjEm2K4PQnC8eHhw-3D-3D), lender advisers (operators) said "the 6.5 is the par rate right now. So people are going to be originating 7s." (The "par rate" is the rate a lender can offer with no extra fees or discounts.) On large "jumbo" loans: "There's no price there. There's no market." They also warned lenders that "75% of your pipeline is sitting in the 6s," meaning loans promised at rates that are now well below the market.

Christian Bachelder (operator) on [The David Greene Show (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhvv56F4J-2FkqA-2F9-2BqFdme5JL6DmUkn2q9gKWQhEGGXk6bIr-2Fdn9jkxdAdWXbSvcDObjlwHdkPM0nGFRwH65L54h2vpBpbFQxfcvDsdpe2UGeg-3D-3D_g1u_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BK6Ofg5dPcIN2hCH6YXm25V-2FbgP2VeKYussPFknK0RXT-2F6IL-2F7UVn9dEW7l74T5ys9JmNJOqHQ-2BH3mjoCzAf6smSpUB2szjQAKUZQ37NC-2Frtxd22S8aMLyXaPMKiwL0EfQ-3D-3D) said closing costs rose "probably about 200 basis points" in two weeks, which works out to about three-quarters of a percentage point on the rate. Graham on Power Lunch offered the one comfort: "We've really seen a lot of the bad come through since 2022... the purchase market holds its own a bit better than the refi market."

*Rate buydowns are getting big.* A buydown is when a builder or seller pays upfront to lower the buyer's mortgage rate. Chrisman Commentary (Sep 28) said buydowns in FHA and VA loans "now represent $45 billion, or about 2% of Ginnie Mae 2 single-family universe." On the same episode, Sam Valverde of Falcon Capital Advisors (pundit) expects Washington to step in: "I could see a lot of new activity around trying to administratively manage mortgage rates."

*Mortgage REITs.* These companies own mortgage bonds and pay out most of their income as dividends. The Dynex Capital co-CEO (operator) on [Dividend Stockpile (Sep 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiGH0jug-2BNfa6KMnJ-2F-2F-2BzhRCyyYmnHX5d3fhrkWSMrHNTxzaV5ErQRk0sqXzihxaxAdTLkY41jypyzu0KEMg49sGXW0TlH0NvKyonpRFUwzhw-3D-3DV2Xi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BFGkZ88ItQMzg6-2F-2Fzr9VImqueAOLMIYVusBYxPrkRqjsPDvOe6KtLbOks8lK-2BsVyzN1X34bHw92b70sa5VwzNFQMAMeVCccpkP2xGciJTmj5LtSDRcLNhwS-2BHFJH6FZ8Aw-3D-3D) explained that "we have to pay out 90 plus percent of our income in order to maintain our [REIT] status." He described a base return of about 6% plus the income from the bond portfolio, adding up to "a double digit return." The catch came from Michael Garza (pundit) on [his Annaly breakdown (Sep 26)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhLR8YoV2TW2jBlpXNeqTfa1HYoJb5zziVqkK2fm0UxxpYQd2gCmaPSUXe-2Fzjs8FDIxWqGDYDFuV4zqTevD35d-2Fu5im4FNVgIbDwunab2c-2FHw-3D-3DILUk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BB3P61TwBs3BZ-2BA7uk4lbbEt9N-2Fp7Of7cVSBkdDb1oI6M-2Ff-2BEjkmNjbmDI58Cpvk2HOcFH0v-2FocB8E0JX4PV9VcUnp8IKU7xBAB8-2FMCOqXhMjvHbUpmPhv3r-2BIVvA4Ii7A-3D-3D): "If the rate environment becomes chaotic, book value can be pressured." (Book value is roughly what the company's assets are worth minus its debts.) This week was chaotic. Friday's spread tightening is the first relief in a while.

*Apartments: the glut is ending, but the debt bill is coming.* Supply is falling fast. The hosts of [The Gray Report (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiDC3etIaky6qpzu8pBAOimzqkuBFeG8xC2Qt58JkFJEbIUojQpk-2B65kaaoBKdn-2FsqK0q119r7VekLeZJ-2FgVhXHC8f-2FPPT9-2BFS-2BiPiCzGtuzQ-3D-3D2nFA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BNTYkzp9fFlAVrLGNCkHfjxDAcZSxY0U5ikkVipV5zQ0gCAVwZLwzXQiSJ-2F-2FZDfr4lRONxYD99qBzA-2FpIpxmCzcxCK71XIfh4OxkktIHxbeuLTVe-2BZ0N4put396YCkayvA-3D-3D), multifamily investors (operators), cited apartment completions down 35.7% from August 2025 to August 2026, and starts down 22.5% from July to August. They also cited Cotality's estimate that 6.6% is the mortgage rate at which renting and owning cost the same. At 7.5%, renting wins, which helps landlords.

The problem is the debt. On [The Gray Report (Sep 25)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgA2-2F5A-2FG5iHJiTfoS6oEDWaQijyrg3PBlS8OdLwh-2BRlN-2Fv6UBGcaKkM1g8tChPbQMWvUUuRJAqgDSt253U3kAQr36vXthYpGhqw7RSlH-2FgeQ-3D-3Dd1-S_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BKlwKtsU2O8vm3-2FPsDyfSGzFubxh-2BAuoDGYRr5M-2BhjpDDMp3lXYT3W5arhYftFEtbhOF-2BDh87saLlm9gvTIyxiDcIk3GAtpw91JZ3t6WdEW9-2Ff5crY9V2wVDlHRAAt1IfQ-3D-3D), the hosts cited a Wall Street Journal piece on landlords' "$2 trillion... debt problem that is only getting worse." One landlord facing a refinance "from its current three and a half percent rate to today's 6% level" is "considering selling rather than writing a large check." They also cited a Morgan Stanley figure: late payments on apartment loans packaged into bonds rose from 1% in October 2023 to 7.1% this year.

Operators on [Old Capital (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgoM3dlq9K6Kv69DG-2Fcl0tP37kw3sZam4D7aLG4pCC97FC-2BKlMjPRLSiQ5816NejpjkfIl67n-2FwmRCWzK9TGCY0yhFyVDzaSE8tkfC2vTsfIw-3D-3DHHAy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BO2gYcfaKcc1T-2BfzcnVr8kUb1uoJmr0CMGFHEtQcKPAXE-2B0oxjlsj1B1R3dZfCqqbdrdi8YQOfwSrj6FdL8EAf7HySN8cp57iN0tB8GUhR5IxTk1hYFPJz9VJkP-2Bsoz24g-3D-3D) described "Fannie Mae taking some of these deals back," and said older "B and C" buildings will have to sell at lower prices. One called it "a lost decade." On [Multifamily Unpacked (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhOSCt2YmWrQOG0yn-2FKaRKDbk-2B1y09FDZtG92u9XkQBUSu3mkPI63cimps5WoAxg50-2FZ2qQH4-2FItK-2BPRVb3znb5yTkH4fXiqnQuZxoSSm-2BqIw-3D-3DHkv7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BPHBbIu-2F-2BpkCQMumdU4qd-2BSVA-2BEN1p4sRZKV2DrIG29yCRXqTQGgUk7MEg3ve8gvYaghwATewm-2BNfq-2FY4sCQOaz0k6zE-2FIOh1MVQFABMfdPEtoHw8K01n1CjDLc7ZNdXZQ-3D-3D), a guest described pricing new buildings against rents that have been "a falling knife."

The long-money view came from Chris Lee, president of KKR Real Estate (operator), on [Walker Webcast (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgCOmNzsSw-2Fnm9-2BYsRCObQAIS6OPKZhYkRFUgEjcS-2FSJduax5ihR5Snz2VY1PqXz-2FPmQWu8EyJvfLuvzgui3EK0iQPOygXBSTS89n0g6bVdCA-3D-3Dqsb0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BM3EPNACg3XQw54qJlggpDI0-2BZlGn-2FiaZsCva2Tk-2F4a-2FE8gVE65-2FQ4keVN4P7Ss8y8Hr9IYt9Uj5otCPHXyEmrv73oDCg5hxJEnDXBp17wzU8XlaTMeZln2gwiZZBPojmA-3D-3D): "Shelter in general is a resilient asset class... construction starts drop pretty dramatically." He likes the Bay Area and Puget Sound, where "the rent to own math is very attractive."

*Affordable housing.* On [The Rent Roll (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh0DGoXr21eyNx4FMFiokjx76UXTVVBquAguexWhlGnN6Rxvn3BQZsA-2F0jbrG8ke9GxxLHG0jDYA-2BJPrzqBZfk1rIBT9zRwadBsMXaPQvi18g-3D-3DWVG1_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BBnsDOy1OA-2BN83SCxNSmLb0n-2FBGucO7pRvsu5VeeWI6p5sO6MP2NAWdB3wpRO8vQig-2Fv4tLd53Vf32tsmAkgq-2BI99fZh9hAkCbaEuH3jkItD5jgJNXbMBvX7jPQ1VFzoQg-3D-3D), Jay Parsons made a surprising point: market-rate "rents have fallen so much, they now compete with income restricted housing like LIHTC." (LIHTC is the federal tax credit that funds most new affordable apartments.) That's a strange place to be, and it's a pressure point for affordable-housing developers.

*Single-family rentals.* Tony Julianelle of Atlas Real Estate (operator), which runs about 6,000 rental homes and units, pushed back on the idea that investors cause the shortage, on the [Rental Property Owner & Real Estate Investor Podcast (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGRGhbl9fZlkGXnhJYj-2F0WlnX8nUyZK-2BVLvpXjd0PtYC99uYejXFEmgTOaYmg1t15QeX6f133aTokfeoZkbYP99xsu9AP8UZ6Yc57MG6RiRQ-3D-3DZ_Vr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BFQG2GZDTdfXX442-2Bf7c84nmP8dNcFl5tVQREici6RVgkstSVlmybW3gmZJ0MUawfgmXPiRlGiMPXMIZ8DzddeamuzRU-2Ff0L1q5JZTg78QGnW3X4yT7Y0Hku-2B1zQ5eDISw-3D-3D). Big investors are "net seller[s] of those assets into the retail market," he said. "The truth just isn't that exciting."

*Banks and commercial real estate lenders.* Trepp's team (pundits) on TreppWire 425 flagged the month's loan maturities. The five largest come to about $2 billion, "43% of everything coming due this month," including a $569 million apartment loan. Refinancing those at today's rates is the stress test for lenders with property exposure.

*Lumber.* On [The Lumber Word (Sep 25)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgjCtGzGmd0sZHkn-2FDoz7yVYPvTGg-2FFPI78xaRfn-2BrPamBxKaPIygfAme-2B9jTkeu6OJwhQfFB0ngUnDVSlPGmlp4aia-2FCnA5hWP3oWlvw41Dw-3D-3DrDMJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BCFcqDpRaKkSf48Vz2JzyKJjNRGRpDu6nq-2ByCw-2BLGa9-2F8XjANd5vs7NGs4l48Q8O40y4khdVvKxwuxaf3AIWz5XDkyJO69IgEEHg4tm1Ap5kpnKVdkSVk8cvsBbQ0kQXZw-3D-3D), analyst Dustin Jalbert said Southern Yellow Pine is about $100 above where it traded 14 months ago, with Douglas fir "holding a huge premium." Higher wood costs on top of higher rates are another squeeze on builder margins.

*Appraisals.* A small but real item: on [The Appraisal Update (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhnei2NT3WmPSh7S9TkM2BdXgO-2B0VESykDv6sNuzNWYIoKc1WBpoZGYP8GP-2B691Y-2Fw9xLPgP-2FUDwwnADTrE0DrCP9IkDLoyEmJYjn7PcXFPIQ-3D-3DXvX5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXpNhz0SKmyNVbbDvWDoAUlLPb3jItDSKeS6K6IBkDN-2BNYf3k3k7QBI-2Fnfy9rNu5nzUa0tJ-2FVXqkqB6zUFmytP5j5nk4ogijrfs6wbtv55ChLKZnVRqpmJnUblNY6yLpc30wiVs99yn1sjTxiiIelcCZ1M83IvJtJH4K1cisXspCQ-3D-3D), the host said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac kept the November 2 deadline for the new appraisal report format, while adding an exception because "a lot of folks aren't ready." Separately, Chrisman (Oct 2) reported an FHFA push for Fannie/Freddie loans to carry a GSE credit score alongside FICO and VantageScore.

## What changed

* *Mortgage rates: about 7.2% last week, about 7.5%–7.6% this week*, the highest since November 2023. The current coupon on mortgage bonds rose from 6.22% to 6.40% before Friday's bounce.
* *The 10-year blew past last week's 5.15% high* to touch 5.34%, and the 30-year Treasury hit 5.69%, a level last seen in 2002. Then Friday's 29,000 jobs print pulled both back.
* *October hike odds flipped down.* Last week they were about 64%–70%. Now they're about 50%. That's the first real shift toward the bulls in a month.
* *Berkshire's housing bet is now about Lennar.* Lennar's stake is roughly 10% after a $212 million September purchase. Last week's report that Berkshire had bought Taylor Morrison came from one guest on one show, and nobody repeated it this week, so treat it as unconfirmed.
* *The apartment story moved from rents to debt.* Last week's theme was rents bottoming (Jay Parsons' "green shoots"). This week it was refinancing pain, Fannie taking buildings back, and a 7.1% late-payment rate on apartment loans in bonds.

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