# Starship Reaches Orbit and AST SpaceMobile Clears Its Satellite Overhangs - The Satellite & Space-Comms Race - Week of October 2, 2026

> The Satellite & Space-Comms Race for the week of October 2, 2026. Podcast synthesis on SpaceX's Starship reaching orbit on Flight 14 and deploying 26 V3 Starlinks to a muted stock reaction, AST SpaceMobile shipping BlueBirds 14-16 and unfolding BlueBird 11 ahead of a late-October Falcon 9 launch, its change-of-control 8-K and possible carrier JV talks, Craig Moffett's view that Starlink threatens cable more than wireless, and where the direct-to-device market debate stands for ASTS, RKLB and Planet Labs.

## The Satellite & Space-Comms Race

### Week of October 2, 2026: Starship Reaches Orbit and AST SpaceMobile Clears Its Satellite Overhangs

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*Coverage window: podcasts published September 25 to October 2, 2026.*

On Monday morning, September 28, at 8:48 a.m. Eastern, SpaceX's Starship finally got into orbit. That was Flight 14, and it took 14 tries to get there. One engine quit on the way up. The planned 10-hour mission ended after about three hours. All 26 of the new, much bigger V3 Starlink satellites were still released safely into orbit.

And the stock? *Down 0.8% on the day.*

Morgan Brennan of CNBC said it best on *Squawk on the Street*:

> "I'm a little surprised you see the stock trading lower this morning, down eight tenths of one percent because this mission was so successful and it was very ambitious."

That reaction is this week's story. SpaceX is a public company now. A historic rocket flight is no longer a reason to celebrate by itself. It is a delivery against a $1.7 trillion price tag, and investors are grading it on a curve.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) was the other side of the week. After a nervous September, two things holders were worried about got settled within days: the next three BlueBird satellites shipped to Florida, and BlueBird 11 finished unfolding in orbit. Then a quiet SEC filing got people talking about takeovers.

## TL;DR

- *Starship reached orbit and dropped off 26 V3 Starlinks, but the mission was cut short and SpaceX stock barely moved.* A former Starship software manager called it a "monumental step forward." CNBC noted that one flight added more Starlink capacity than Starlink's first 1.5 years of launches.
- *AST cleared two overhangs.* BlueBirds 14-16 shipped, BlueBird 11 is fully unfolded, and a Falcon 9 launch is expected around *October 21-31*. A new 8-K (an SEC filing for material events) adds "double-trigger" severance for executives, which the podcast's host reads as a sign of strategic talks. Commentary on AST all came from one retail-shareholder podcast.
- *Bear voices quieted, and a sharper skeptic spoke up.* MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett said Starlink threatens *cable broadband far more than wireless carriers*. He added that the real direct-to-device market "may be to connect robots," not phones. That goes straight to the D2D market-size debate.

## What's new

Ranked by how much each one matters to a portfolio.

### 1. Starship Flight 14: orbit reached, satellites delivered, mission cut short

*What happened.* Across a dozen podcasts, the facts that agree are:

- Lift-off at 8:48 a.m. ET on September 28 from Texas, about half an hour after the planned 8:15 a.m. ([Squawk on the Street, "11AM Hour: Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta, Nvidia Shares Pop & SpaceX's Historic Launch 9/28/26"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOit-2F0yYukfYakFyw5KuncJ5mAPPBB6h0F7-2FrOeflr1NeSFcKG9u78gHKOAgYYSDHXMxZPF-2B29IWUPL4klUzr-2FstngPOGOOmZ0rbtVg9jXYLdw-3D-3DNR05_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCOxiPrY5yPfTuvXNa9Y3FjElRtHLwPLK3oetaqp70ne-2BcaWn6nt3ahqhQMJK4oYjUloHhDWE4BGf1izHhToqQ-2BFGmR2MqTMuzPjcZQumHXcQd1mkLX-2BSxR34AnAqtWgl2uqvqkW-2FPyvFz1R6eQFU4Ew-3D)).
- Starship reached an orbital altitude of *275 km*. On every one of the 13 earlier flights, Starship stayed on a "suborbital" path, meaning gravity would pull it back down whatever happened.
- *One of the six Raptor engines on the upper stage cut out early* on the way up. Contingency software took over and orbit insertion went ahead ([Bloomberg Tech, "Nvidia Goes Big on Buybacks as SpaceX Reaches Orbit"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi499pqVc1kK6i4McXwyxYSEu-2BuZc2kQJS7gkzS1tLYMQOEh73toQlBonCysV8SiJ6lEaPV39Uv9ZyIJn-2BnjiV-2B-2By53WABSqqOFQsubYkceLQ-3D-3DXwTh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCMTIsjuaMa6QPABKhVqLk97OZ3qCOEJTrYQPU0o9UMyYOkpnbKtrgf5gAv2MOlO1F0IEkxF1Yml4hTqUJC2sS0McrDb11T905V1kIOZ2hQNTKxR2vMxR4v93HxDeqsRjdxm3vX-2Fy9kquDK3hJuGaEe0-3D)).
- All *26 V3 Starlinks* were deployed. The booster soft-landed in the Gulf off Texas. SpaceX brought the ship down early, after about three hours instead of nearly 10, with a soft splashdown in the North Pacific.

Bloomberg space reporter Lauren Grush put it this way on *Bloomberg Tech*:

> "It wouldn't be a Starship flight if it didn't have a little drama associated with it."

*The insider view.* Scott Morton spent nearly a decade at SpaceX, most recently as Starship's software engineering manager, before founding Revel. He was clearly positive:

> "Overall, this was a monumental step forward, like actually going to orbit… If I were internal at SpaceX still, I would be seeing this as a massive success."

He added that the engine-out "was definitely fully planned for. There was software already ready to go for all these types of contingencies." He expects the data review to take weeks to months.

*Why the V3 satellites matter.* The SpaceX webcast hosts, replayed on [Today In Space, "SpaceX Starship Flight 14 Live Launch Condensed Replay"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiBxtfaXrnaJwBN7OU02e02I6JLRH8xHMhfZ6fjQ23OGPIndtaV-2BfRehc9x1LEXwS8cE-2BxjPT1iU1WPFDVvj6eSXW2Ac-2BANik5d-2BybJlzQYig-3D-3DS67m_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCOLNSA9XjKyS0-2FMEE3pl8deB1EHqIbVMCM7Z3cAcCKJx-2BkuEaroqNl4B9iLoDGC2JaUNNy2bM5G1D2jdXy1IFKSQ6rB-2Bdaxijw8M2o2Lrrro-2Fqn2FEpHu1SrrF6ocuQ73-2B8hsYeDFDcaMalT4q8M-2BgE-3D), described the V3 like this:

- *10x the download capacity and 22x the upload capacity* of a V2.
- About *1 terabit per second* per satellite.
- Six laser links to other satellites. Built in Redmond, Washington.
- All 26 checked in with ground stations by radio and laser.

On *Squawk on the Street*, Brennan passed along a stat from Rob Maurer of First Principles Group: *this single launch added more Starlink capacity than the first year and a half of Starlink launches, and the next one should add another full year's worth.* That is the economic case for Starship in a sentence. A Falcon 9 can't lift V3s at all. Starship can.

David Whitehouse said on [The Naked Scientists Podcast, "Cancer drug gene screen, and world's most powerful rocket"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhBok4Crlj2GRq8r2L9MgMJb-2Fe7daJ0VIyG2L9O-2Fbn3Y4GBjtA9mJI0N7b-2B4VvwGY22tqUqQM6rnsp-2Ff2igrBYQa0sEo789nlGmUR0aKOXoSg-3D-3DHlt2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCKIfey6con50TxRWwCs8zzHKa24c33ELmXxUKz0MGWR42McxdsV-2FhdO-2BxbCCeO4sRH0WEPoyjiYioUrvxVA1FvclxbsnP2Wf0F-2BPoJNOOlVfAPQAqoDdHwv5fwsjrC-2Fqs5iTiS6cordFAfxoLgCkB9I-3D) that a fully loaded Starship could eventually carry *about 60 V3s per mission*.

*The engineering caveat.* Don Platt of Florida Tech's Spaceport Education Center said on [Are We There Yet?, "Starship makes it into orbit and searching for habitable worlds"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh-2BclLspTrn1HTCInicAV9LGR-2Brd3oC35UkQnMnnCr380HuBmF7kJCmNC-2FN2MUppF-2BxvCGc3sWNFXZcniWzG44yxtOwm4leDgmLf9kTacfqaw-3D-3Dm8Xf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCNbaU1EO-2BW4TbjO-2B5Qg1DIPipMdU3hQscdVDm-2FpQfl2M5JSMgKzCoxsYs5ZDCz4edTvthBwZYjN2SWyjhzVTlTnyHv8W3G7wT1rihOHT4xiZHhnL5-2BDLVuoWDcmU5qfcMqh6U8cySG1Zwt1AP3jXh7w-3D) that serious engine problems remain on both the booster and the ship and must be solved before routine flights. Other points from that episode:

- *Florida Starship launches could start as early as the end of October 2026.*
- In-orbit propellant transfer, needed for NASA's Moon landing, has to be shown within roughly six months.
- The Artemis 3 landing is cited for the end of 2028.

*The stock.* SpaceX was down 0.8% on the morning of the launch (*Squawk on the Street*). Tech Brew Ride Home said shares rose more than 1% early and then went red after the early end was announced ([Tech Brew Ride Home, "Starship Reaches Orbit For The First Time"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjClX6UIzEY3Af5Vr7gBqo5Lu3K-2BqrbLm6M6IevnLIQfuj2MwM6AAPRdj8dCD-2BLmaRaMmjRQ4msMsrENfG7tgwD7cWJsfEqz2jpsyI46hLauQ-3D-3DEir5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCPmpGQ5XwM8-2FJalAh0Lwwol-2BGWBGRftiw2nNuohEInPmZ-2FrIdd88QdUu52TjQ6HDwEsnwImzUdtp1Ack7ZMF01bD-2BrglNwfzU7jmp6kfrSCFlTfvScgQFchNcvsIhG7coe22MZfDHaLmxc75-2FzusmZk-3D)). Morning Brew Daily had it flat the next day ([Morning Brew Daily, "SpaceX Starship Finally Reached Orbit & Why Dudes Are Becoming Cat Dads"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbhA-2BXZXhKIeYBvU5Nm7E-2BFqZpseEGGBLAcZj5utqKVqSnhf283ktANr0rPvBZSZbvDsLcJ-2B2Q74gVX5LD5YVt32Cn8vlnqMUQ2SB9kqy-2B3w-3D-3DwBbo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCMO90ZlXgPRUelE0hzvvILrHzbZNw6d14pouoAGjh2t13AbThNyUyGjH1hLg1f-2B5lt1R8pgl83eN5rem4AogNjNkgwuUXKBueaZokLLAasN-2BiKqvYFDp7V3ys-2BDDu61L9VLFIRDCYE1wS2BH-2Fli83yo-3D)). Morning Brew also noted CFO Brett Johnson's framing of Flight 14 as a *"revenue generating flight"*, and SpaceX's regulatory filings for roughly *100,000 Starlinks plus 1 million orbital data-center satellites*.

*Why it moves numbers:* Every Starship flight that carries V3s adds capacity no competitor can match. Starlink revenue is the core of the SpaceX valuation, and its direct-to-cell service is the main threat to AST. The muted stock reaction tells you a lot of success was already priced in.

*A small reliability note. Episodes disagree on the details: about 3 hours vs. 10 hours, and 2 orbits vs. 6. The 10-hour, 6-orbit figures were the plan, which [This Week in Space](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjrvzP3J9Ci-2BOsDTHuiBhe-2FUU3hdnOkOh34jstCq-2BwMiJhNRZPg5JPzDO6gN7FErZAmTfmd3qUBwaX80HEXjD5R8og3VJUmZNvhqxOg6WM4qg-3D-3D05EN_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCOjvnpfv2VJ1ACZljF6fnb5WAyDy8Hdvy5sxD4gbY2QlM2iEyvDSmXCbPm6aKAHm0-2BUeRjhQKBzXJXR26Uj8Y3zZbYKJdiVYyzSVB-2BfpSqxPNKNNf5S51g1In44VTXi6tfszsOXzw4O7Oo-2FeaIRtfPA-3D) previewed on September 25. Live coverage on Bloomberg and CNBC says what actually happened was about three hours. That is the figure we use.*

### 2. AST SpaceMobile: BlueBirds 14-16 ship, BlueBird 11 unfolds, launch eyed for late October

Last week's AST worries were simple: the satellites hadn't shipped, and BlueBird 11 still hadn't unfolded its huge antenna array. Both were settled this week.

Anpanman is a community analyst and shareholder on the *AST SpaceMobile Podcast*. In ["AST SpaceMobile BB14-16 Shipped, Bluebird 11 Unfolds"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOie6TKHondswnvKq9LU4wenlEvmwoPOmQVxEsfX917EtoQW1MWfBzSbLux8ocqhNQyXzkDtIXYUjA1bRL49jg55GKMbe2VlRSD55jtouyAcHQ-3D-3DjQtR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCI4rEfd9YYLce3SgFxWGKWTgsvfl1uoOrqJ3krNZcvfNIH4tH6GLaotBPhuXw73Axvg66WRNbxVto9deOUNZ8v-2FihY6LoXX-2F41fi5vLYRZOsOhDZghnVWqzkyOwYpgLLjEbM8JNEZGnEkvWXJlQS4o8-3D) (October 1), he reported:

- The company *confirmed BlueBirds 14 through 16 had shipped* to Florida.
- According to independent satellite tracker CATSE, *BlueBird 11 was fully unfolded on September 28*. CEO Abel Avellan later confirmed the phased array, the satellite's giant flat antenna, "was unfolded successfully and was part of the plan."
- Launch on a *SpaceX Falcon 9 "as early as October 21st, 22nd, 23rd… maybe at the latest at the end of October."*
- Avellan met *FCC Chairman Brendan Carr* about using unlicensed *6 GHz* spectrum for direct-to-device (D2D) service. AST is also positioning for a possible auction of spectrum in the *1600 MHz* band, which "would fit very nicely with Legato."

He pushed back on skeptics who read the missing manifest listing as bad news:

> "We don't send satellites down there unless a launch is booked… The first time that AST sends satellites down to Cape Canaveral for processing and, but yet they don't have a ride."

On the track record: across BlueWalker 3, Block 1 and Block 2, "we haven't had a satellite fail." The exception is *BlueBird 7, which never reached orbit* on its New Glenn launch.

On September 28, before the unfold was confirmed, fellow shareholder "Kook" went through the downside scenarios in ["The Space Industry's Next Mag-7 Moment"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiTVxXmnfwFdcxSHzSU3nadpsKJVc7nT05BdwbqcTb7Y7Wk9ZX7wtdBpo-2ByPlAXu2OhODQm-2BjhRXLWDltBh7gshxsZoPBhMjAdyJOKCPuGipQ-3D-3D0CAD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCO2DgPiaNT6fXKFGeYluN8K0Ek1-2BAn0EaJeM4J8BF11zdAbAzMVu4lUyPmd-2BCehuNjatIrEQ3bqjAZSJAFSGNgjuMXZ36BjTPOJw4Ks7OhDvbZ8fEpz32HP47OqMjqDWMoWgtvBbe-2FT0H03PpeLtM0k-3D). If BlueBird 11 had stayed partly stowed, "it's about as powerful as a Block 1 satellite. Not a disaster, but not great." If it had failed completely, he put the damage at a "$25, $30 million" satellite against "a $25 billion company." The good outcome happened. His framing is still a handy guide to what a single satellite failure actually costs AST.

*Why it moves numbers:* AST's value rests on getting from today's handful of satellites to about 45, the number needed for continuous US service, and then beyond. Shipping and launch cadence is the key variable. Anpanman's own test is that batches 3 and 4 should ship within "one to two, three weeks of each other." A second shipment by around mid-to-late October would be the real signal.

### 3. AST's 8-K: change-of-control severance, and why an M&A banker reads it as a tell

On September 29, AST filed an 8-K adopting a *"double-trigger" change-of-control severance plan* for senior executives. In plain English, if the company is bought (trigger one) and the executive is then let go without cause (trigger two), they get roughly *18-24 months of pay and benefits, and their unvested stock vests immediately*.

Anpanman, a former M&A banker and event-driven hedge fund analyst, explained why this caught his eye in ["AST SpaceMobile 8-K: Change of Control Severance Explained"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjP9CN1ik2JtEuKbKTGVayLKiZXjg3diDZNSmdm2lLqEvvF5IsG6khsfxk7k6h31tc3F3L92QlGILc4UcoUETmEFwov7Cy-2FVTfZwj2-2FocULaQ-3D-3DbTqD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCIjRLdUeH0ViNz-2FI2aTYZ9aC1Tl1YYPamdsx8qwNPKEfLpDVQcBzhHciSc00QxvYnN3xGPQjSZT3qLRwnDFoxaIvMgRaQrcC4W-2B46W9n5W2RLQd9Fg5jYqPbWeiYnxjhx-2BX20rVoSTW7445w7wiTEVE-3D). His case is the *Iridium precedent*. As he tells it from Iridium's merger proxy:

- Rocket Lab proposed buying Iridium on *January 8*.
- The two signed a non-disclosure agreement on *February 6*.
- Iridium's comp committee adopted an enhanced double-trigger severance plan on *February 26*.
- The deal was announced *June 30*, about four months later.

He also pointed to the early-August hire of *Ozzy Ramos*, a senior banker from Barclays and UBS. His view is that the plan looks "off cycle" rather than routine housekeeping.

He was careful not to overreach:

> "I think it's a very low likelihood that AST would sell here. I think the company believes that it's undervalued."

And the obvious limit: Avellan "has full voting control of the company" through high-vote shares, so "even if Google came in with a $300 offer and Abel decided now is not the time to sell the company… that would be the end of discussion." Director Adriana Cisneros bought shares on the open market on August 31. He notes that argues against anything material being imminent.

His read is that the plan more likely supports *joint-venture talks*: a US carrier JV, a European JV with Deutsche Telekom and a Japanese JV. These could include "contribution of spectrum rights, infrastructure. Maybe they capitalize the JV." His line on the carriers:

> "The MNOs have found new religion."

(MNOs are mobile network operators, i.e. the phone carriers.)

*Why it moves numbers:* Treat this as optionality, not a thesis. The founder controls the vote, so a sale is the founder's call. The JV angle is more actionable, because a T-Mobile deal would give AST all three US carriers.

### 4. Craig Moffett: Starlink is a cable problem, not a wireless one

The most useful sell-side voice of the week came on [Power Lunch, "Nvidia's Record Buyback, SpaceX Starship Rocket, Graco CEO Interview 9/28/26"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiY-2BsZ4965Xp2mrDHHmMreORsHOazyliDQi4Z1lU3j4DAU-2B68cp-2BsfnlzgRkNtwr4vix0yQFzPs0P7OQNUTCHSg5QZUs8Yc5pmQ2wt-2FsxKf7Q-3D-3DPXjQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCHFoCF7zHHskF-2Fk7ljRIZlKLOaXVhrhk8BrAdeRwe-2BtEcyH-2BoPKi4lbccSDI9ZoWbpKeMurqfqreFJ-2BDK8AR-2BZiQactBOsuNvwyQpD7cv0ZQ5vPC8OH-2FbHrPSo4O-2Fvb37HT7YiKAX82GFqfh9khgIDc-3D). Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson made three points:

- *Who gets hurt:* Starlink "is a much bigger issue for terrestrial broadband than it is for terrestrial wireless." Comcast and Charter are more exposed than AT&T and Verizon. "It already is having a significant impact."
- *How fast:* "They got 26 V3s into space. It'll be past 2030 before the constellation of satellites is mostly V3s." Even then, "it's still a product that is not going to match the speeds of what you get with terrestrial broadband, whether that's from fiber or from cable."
- *What D2D is really for:*

> "The D2D wireless business won't be to power your phone. It may be to connect robots."

He framed Musk's interest in broadband as wanting "broadband to every movable object in the world," eventually every Tesla and maybe every car.

*Why it moves numbers:* If Moffett is right, the near-term D2D phone market is smaller than AST bulls assume, and the carriers are partners rather than victims. That backs AST's wholesale-through-carriers model while capping what it is worth. More in the debate below.

### 5. Launch market: Rocket Lab's Neutron slips to 2027 talk, and the small-rocket crowd circles

Launch-supplier coverage was thin and indirect this week.

- *Rocket Lab (RKLB):* On [Everything is Logistics, "The Space Economy Needs a Supply Chain - 5 Companies Who Are Making it Happen"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiSK-2FSNjOR7w40VdICB7Lewb9029-2B-2BbTm3g8GR3hucgI0nUdDV8lIxIaKVWTlcsviGDWq7wmzXqRCs0bdAqcLG-2BjIALpTFfF-2F7GD3ihFROk3A-3D-3DxESf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCAq9BxZYFA-2FdCgq3yAFVkb1rT8veL-2F1EBkgzGexMSBZSZFQRmv-2BdBgfG5PDB7-2BCeh-2BxSWCztzrAEhgHwjSAyaOejQ3uceKHhgKDazzwY8mavB8cGSOxHG5azdoPx-2Fpe9Vm3gmVRFgYD8HWQtJDG7wVA-3D), host Blythe Milligan described Neutron as "supposed to debut in 2027." She also said Rocket Lab's new "Ghost" program, which packs launch operations into containers that can deploy anywhere, will *launch first from Kodiak, Alaska, in 2027*. She called Electron's record "100% success," which is generous. Treat the 2027 Neutron date as one host's statement, not company guidance.
- *Astra:* CEO *Chris Kemp* was on [Off-Nominal, "259 - Overhead (with Chris Kemp)"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhY-2FPWxe478jveFOD-2FKJYvjE2eFqowWLSOJYC1mJReyuulj0p1378Uo1yqHZQ0IMy9QUczpp5EAnIDD-2Fs812-2BM-2BnzN-2F6p-2FppT42EFYsfkHOkg-3D-3D6LtR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCHLpnNRb4XfHKfeakZ5xmxkWoOv9enJR-2FWeRoK3sFaJKFgvKountkOJPHRqGBIKVp-2F0q3qUqKQL0mcNet9Hr7RfgzFa0MexCNwIYpi1rkgkcwoNPdcdGbGA3a1gr0ajomE-2B1CYZwAjEEGRHmBD1JCDY-3D). He described *Rocket 4*: about 1 ton to orbit at a *$5 million* target price, first test flight in *Q1 2027*, capacity for *200-300 rockets a year*, under 150 staff. His comparisons were Rocket Lab's 70+ launches and a Falcon 9 that sells for *$60-70 million*. He also claimed Astra was EBITDA breakeven in 2025.
- *York Space Systems* (NYSE-listed since January 2026): founder and CEO *Dirk Wallinger* said on [Inside the ICE House, "Episode 559: York Space CEO Dirk Wallinger on Scaling Satellites and the Next Space Race"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh-2BXyu62gxgFqEovrrZ9Q-2BTbeylem7tTJ-2F7t0uekKkATdSf3o8vHmwkr9qfjBGFEIFn3R1J65iUsyC-2Fjxsw-2BooBj6-2FZmyyzIO3wWJknfsKJFw-3D-3DTrTm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCBoB3wKFOW2vJzC-2BaTv4XAB3iqV2aG7hFwqEVc6nIHQ5aTFbzhtmDqD2-2FW0k3ykOAjrj2zJ-2Fqb67HWg8K35Qd7A5xIbZqf914HSXC4yZ3wQIUbenvWqyZpbR7-2Fqqf2aJcsC30TxCF1bR1OdonsZByMk-3D) that York has *55 satellites deployed*, has put *$755 million* into US production capacity, and has cut satellite build time to *seven months*. It has also tested very-low-Earth-orbit flight down to about 200 km. York is a satellite-bus maker in the defense supply chain (the bus is the satellite's core structure and systems), so its build times matter for Space Development Agency-style constellations.
- *The broader point:* Brennan on *Squawk* noted that a lot of Starship capacity will go to SpaceX's own projects. That leaves an opening for "Rocket Labs, Stoke Space, Firefly, Blue Origin, which is out there raising money from outside investors right now."

*Why it moves numbers:* Last week's theme was "Falcon 9 retires in 2028, so who fills the gap?" It got a quiet answer this week: not Neutron before 2027, if the Everything is Logistics host is right. That stretches the window in which SpaceX is the only heavy-lift choice for everyone, AST included.

## The debate: how big is the direct-to-device market?

*The bull case: phones are the market, and carriers are rushing in*

- AST says it works with about *60 mobile carriers covering roughly 3 billion subscribers*, and is targeting *200 Mbps* peak speeds on Block 2 satellites (Anpanman, [AST SpaceMobile Podcast, Oct 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOie6TKHondswnvKq9LU4wenlEvmwoPOmQVxEsfX917EtoQW1MWfBzSbLux8ocqhNQyXzkDtIXYUjA1bRL49jg55GKMbe2VlRSD55jtouyAcHQ-3D-3DtICG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCN-2BrK0bx3CSbySfT6cWRrz3nG9lPbOpOsrPt8k-2B1HDHAG8PabvHARe9pQub-2FWzn86J4hw1IY6jimDVBvxRloFsiRRdxy1Czw-2F57TKePAGq-2BJzTrk3gVD2S4cluHzSZK2-2BBmnQY6F38rhCgRur5F2exs-3D)).
- Kook relayed a carrier quote from an expert-network call. This is secondhand and anonymous, so weight it accordingly:

> "This is the best thing that's happened maybe in 20 to 25 years since texting came out."

He reads it as carriers seeing D2D as a way to raise average revenue per user, or as he put it, "your phone bill will go higher" ([AST SpaceMobile Podcast, Sept 28](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiTVxXmnfwFdcxSHzSU3nadpsKJVc7nT05BdwbqcTb7Y7Wk9ZX7wtdBpo-2ByPlAXu2OhODQm-2BjhRXLWDltBh7gshxsZoPBhMjAdyJOKCPuGipQ-3D-3DFU5j_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCP4-2BDCq9E6QC0A4O4HOnekhpFPizTvD9b2JRMMfIO5YK0kO-2F3BFET-2BpG72-2Bvw-2FmHmhg0WxADwm9-2Bnyg3qNAdO2KiwfxMnW9KddG8sFvbH-2FIt9DIXaN9-2Ba82jZ4ZsG6VRpeQXuT2PsWIG0SfH6z-2BKhNw-3D)).

- He also told a story about a camping friend who bolted a ~$1,000 Starlink dish to his pickup truck "because I don't have good Verizon service." That is anecdotal evidence that people will pay to fix coverage gaps.
- The *US carrier JV*, Anpanman argues, would lock up the whole US market. Starlink would then have to "carve out some portion of share… without an MVNO agreement." (An MVNO is a company that rents capacity on someone else's network.) "That's a really tough, tough hill to climb for them."

*The bear case: phones are a niche, and the real market may be machines*

- Moffett's line that D2D "won't be to power your phone. It may be to connect robots" challenges the consumer-phone market-size math directly.
- His timeline matters too. A mostly-V3 Starlink constellation is "past 2030." The direct-to-cell competitor gets much stronger, but slowly.
- AST still has to deliver. Anpanman himself thinks AST probably *won't hit its 25-satellite beta-service target by year-end*, though he says beta could start at about 20. He sees commercial service in mid-2027 at the earliest.
- Last week's carrier comments still apply. Vodafone's "one bar problem" and T-Mobile's CFO saying satellite signals "can't even get through a Tesla windscreen" both argue that D2D supplements cell towers and won't replace them.

*Our take:* The bull and bear cases are closer than they look. Both agree D2D fills gaps rather than replacing towers. The real disagreement is whether "filling gaps" is worth a modest monthly add-on per subscriber across billions of phones (bull), or mostly an IoT and machine-connectivity business with lower revenue per connection (bear). AST is priced at about $20-25 billion, which assumes something close to the bull case.

## Stocks in play

### AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), ~$61-62/share, ~$20-23B market cap (per the AST SpaceMobile Podcast)

*Bull:* Two overhangs cleared in one week. Bulls also point to market signals, citing data they did not independently confirm:

- Implied volatility (the options market's guess at future price swings) near all-time lows, around 70%.
- Record short interest of *65 million shares per Bloomberg, or about 94 million on other data* (short interest is shares borrowed and sold by investors betting on a fall).
- Kook's stock-loan utilization hitting *100%*.

Anpanman's line: "Expectations are so low and nothing is priced in." He thinks a T-Mobile deal could mean the stock "should double that day," and his long-term fair value is "well north of $200" ([Sept 27](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOigpfsYoudU4oKt8IvTxYp2H0wluEEF78-2B-2B9k4HvBPvwVh6mNhTogQcy32OhnMBNBB3F9WTMTWX0Tty0iKY5AnvL0TcOS-2BU-2FOu4IxR0yOB0VQ-3D-3D8Wqo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCFfKZPIQBKjswFcQ0NUX-2FZs-2B5BzI4VQiRWOb5lK2amZwT0b-2BNUF6TlchIs7tAB0QkULv8lUNfsoxS694XqFP-2F5PJ2KFl-2Boub-2BaATBkf-2BGuarxUTuKvEpxM6fFXxQChqqUczVth0v2ONPmueVa5uSjlo-3D), [Sept 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjP9CN1ik2JtEuKbKTGVayLKiZXjg3diDZNSmdm2lLqEvvF5IsG6khsfxk7k6h31tc3F3L92QlGILc4UcoUETmEFwov7Cy-2FVTfZwj2-2FocULaQ-3D-3Dr0YP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCCCy-2FoJZf1ba-2FGsjG99hw5jz2VgdL5f4j1eyQub6BQkuqZeI7lElB17ASHTxW7oPNLznI-2Bk-2FHXk9Fgt3MPT8DFdI8hw2H9Jd6-2BZa679VrwhTueDaDi-2BhCVkBeDWN9JT7vo8ItRZZzqfMGAIUxOQtRgg-3D)).

*Bear:* Every voice on AST this week came from one retail-shareholder podcast. There was no sell-side or company voice. Bulls also concede the stock has been stuck in a *$55-70 range since late June*, the 25-satellite beta target probably slips, and commercial service is mid-2027 at the earliest. Rising rates hit high-growth, cash-burning names hardest. Anpanman blamed the 30-year Treasury matching its 2002 highs for two straight days of gains that faded by the close.

*Next catalysts:*

- Falcon 9 launch of BlueBirds 14-16 (Oct 21-31 window).
- Batch 4 shipment.
- The FCC/Grain decision on *800 MHz* spectrum, "expected by early November": 7 MHz up plus 7 MHz down, 14 MHz in total, nationwide.
- A US carrier JV and a formal T-Mobile agreement, which Anpanman expects "before the end of this year."
- Golden Dome and JLEO details.

### SpaceX (public; IPO'd June 2026)

*Bull:* Flight 14 showed Starship can reach orbit and deploy a payload with an engine out. V3 adds capacity in big jumps. BlackRock's Reid Menge on [The Bid, "Space, The Final Investing Frontier - How AI and Technology Are Expanding the Economy"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgTpZ4AG7HRKxiyH8-2BgJeC0U5cQ9ZSkzflaG54Ag32lCeAlYIC2T8tfSSefymx6lqJh-2Bi50nwo2QRNHVfvUatdop-2FpKa8mGDdpePpQWARIfmg-3D-3DH-Pr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCOtUu2XnaB8Qmam6uovTcWRy1QPPXjf2Mqo7EAboZi9InScUjrqG1lio-2BkBIOvCnMPImTFAd1cYmRNYI6FJ5yB1DJ3-2FnZajJ-2FAvaiuyi7fcoI05s4dbvY8RVyFVuBkeiwrBuEWAn2lxT4DWtdKtnA5I-3D) set out the cost curve: *$54,000/kg historically, ~$3,000/kg on Falcon 9, a ~$200/kg Starship target*. He also cited an orbital AI data-center proof of concept around Q4 2027, scaling in 2028.

*Bear:* A successful flight moved the stock 0.8% the wrong way. Even fans are grading on a curve. Moffett says a mostly-V3 fleet is past 2030, and Platt says engine problems remain. Last week's float-unlock bear case (George Noble, Roger Ibbotson) got no rebuttal this week, and also no new airtime.

*Next catalysts:* FAA and SpaceX data review of Flight 14; Flight 15 (booster-catch attempt); possible first Florida Starship launch around end of October; V3 customer service "in the next few weeks" (Tech Brew Ride Home).

### Rocket Lab (RKLB)

*Bull:* Brennan lists Rocket Lab first among the launchers that benefit as Starship capacity goes in-house. The Iridium acquisition (announced June 30, close targeted mid-2027 per earlier coverage) adds recurring satellite-services revenue.

*Bear:* Neutron "supposed to debut in 2027" (Everything is Logistics host). On [Equity Mates Investing Podcast, "RBA raises rates again, Pimp my Portfolio with Henry Jennings & we review the community portfolio"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjdd0wNZ8FoLNZ1LIxJ0NLe5uhEEn7k-2FjnRc-2FOHyxpE4srtapGrtvZ-2Bvui4IpNyQdq-2FEoO1UAQOmS3NzTdKEUWW9oldQKeA1CWPDi8tlYuK1g-3D-3DjTr0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWErR-2BAaocqv8zEJ-2Fy-2BgWbJNavUJTuMV6lbqO83z-2BCiCHmx36W9UABqOXNPApHMTMpzQNMbJjaK8gloF0sM86t9BCln8dlsveswNy9ydtLFDNhcbGgzUuc25gIvs-2BuxSwG6H24Yn1DlNCRwGMdhA-2BwZK2aicjHYtPXMnSThWJBKCjFq18KeZfoVT7hpSu0H46c-3D), Henry Jennings of Marcus Today summed up the single-event risk: "one fail on the launch pad and it's all over."

*Next catalyst:* A firm Neutron first-flight date; progress on closing the Iridium deal.

### Planet Labs (PL), passing mention

New high-resolution satellites were scheduled to fly on a SpaceX ride Thursday, October 1. The stock is "up nearly 40%" since CNBC last spoke with CEO Will Marshall a year ago (*Power Lunch*).

## Read-throughs

- *Carrier partners (VZ, T, TMUS):* Moffett's view that Starlink is "a much bigger issue for terrestrial broadband than it is for terrestrial wireless" is a mild positive for the carriers. On the AST side, Kook noted AT&T running "more connectivity, fewer satellites" ads, and Anpanman says active JV talks include *T-Mobile*. T-Mobile is Starlink's anchor direct-to-cell partner, and it supplied the 1900 MHz spectrum that made Starlink's service possible. A T-Mobile move toward AST would be the biggest carrier swing of the year. For now it is shareholder speculation only.
- *Cable (CMCSA, CHTR):* The real Starlink losers, per Moffett. The open question is whether Starlink "will start to creep into suburban markets." The V3 ramp raises that risk at the margin, mostly after 2030.
- *Incumbents (IRDM, SATS, GSAT):* Covered only as consolidation history inside the 8-K discussion (SpaceX and EchoStar, Amazon and Globalstar, Rocket Lab and Iridium). Anpanman used Iridium's severance timeline as his template for reading AST's filing.
- *Launch and components:* Astra (Rocket 4, $5M, Q1 2027 test), York Space (7-month builds, $755M capacity spend), plus Stoke, Firefly and Blue Origin named as Starship-era beneficiaries. Kook claimed a *$130 billion* Blue Origin valuation, unsourced.
- *SpaceX valuation as a sentiment gauge:* A clean technical win produced a flat-to-down stock. For the rest of the group (AST, Rocket Lab, Planet), that says space momentum is now trading on rates and broad growth-stock risk appetite more than on milestones. Anpanman made the same point about AST: space stocks "all follow the same exact daily pattern… the same true day pattern as Russell 2000."

## What changed vs last week

- *Starship Flight 14: open question to done.* Last week it was "targeted Sept 28, first orbital attempt." It launched on that date and reached orbit, but ended after about three hours instead of 10. The 26-satellite deployment that was "≈3% of capacity" on paper is now real.
- *AST batch 3: "not shipped" to shipped.* Last week's AST podcast said batch 3 hadn't shipped and BlueBird 11 hadn't unfolded based on tracking data. Both happened. The vague "early-October Falcon 9" became an October 21-31 window.
- *New this week:* AST's change-of-control 8-K, and the Avellan and Carr meeting on 6 GHz and 1600 MHz spectrum.
- *SpaceX bear volume: loud to quiet.* Last week, George Noble ($30-60/share fair value vs ~$140) and Roger Ibbotson led. This week no podcast repeated or rebutted the float-unlock argument. Moffett's skepticism is about the size of the market, not the share count. No new price level was quoted beyond daily moves (-0.8% on launch day, flat the next).
- *Rocket Lab Neutron:* Last week's open item was "first-flight date?" This week brought only a podcast host's "2027."
- *Unchanged and still open:* formal T-Mobile/AST deal, JLEO signing, the result of the FCC's September 30 vote on 12.7 GHz and 42 GHz satellite spectrum (no podcast covered it), and WRC D2D-band news.

---

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