# Apple Cuts The Trade Desk From Safari and Amazon Turns Its Ad Console Into an Agent - Digital Ads & Retail Media Weekly - Week of October 4, 2026

> Digital Ads & Retail Media Weekly for the week of September 27 to October 4, 2026. Podcast synthesis on Apple blocking The Trade Desk's ad-serving domain in Safari on iOS 27, Amazon Unboxed rebuilding its ad tools around an agent and why Amazon keeps AI agents out, a reality check on ChatGPT's $1 billion ad run rate, and retail media's measurement fight.

## Digital Ads & Retail Media Weekly

### Week of October 4, 2026: Apple Cuts The Trade Desk From Safari and Amazon Turns Its Ad Console Into an Agent

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*Week of September 27 to October 4, 2026.*

## TL;DR

* *The Trade Desk can't show ads to people on Safari who have updated to iOS 27.* AdExchanger broke the story, and two ad-industry podcasts covered it. Apple added The Trade Desk's ad-serving web address to Safari's block list. It is the first time Safari has blocked a company's actual ads, not just its tracking. Nobody yet knows if Apple meant to do it. iOS 27 carries about 5–7% of US web traffic today, and Marketecture's hosts expect that to pass 20% as people update.
* *Amazon used its Unboxed conference to rebuild its ad-buying tools around AI.* The ad console is now an "Amazon Ads Agent" you can chat with. It also launched "Branded Conversations" (sponsored product chats) and "Sponsored Reviews." Adam Epstein, CEO of the Amazon ad-tech firm GG, thinks Sponsored Reviews could become a *billion-dollar ad product*.
* *Epstein also explained plainly why Amazon is blocking Meta's Muse.* He estimates Amazon's ad business at roughly $80 billion, about 65% of it from sponsored listings on Amazon.com. Every shopping trip an AI agent takes off Amazon's pages means ads nobody sees. His summary: protecting existing ad revenue matters more to Amazon than growing new ad revenue.
* *ChatGPT's ad business is real, but smaller than the headline suggests.* On the Digiday podcast, reporters stressed that the $1 billion figure is a "run rate" (one period's sales multiplied up to a year), not money already earned. OpenAI's internal goal was $2.5 billion of actual 2026 ad revenue. Ad buyers say clients who spend *$10 million a month on Google can't spend more than $100,000 a month on ChatGPT*, because there isn't enough ad space to buy.
* *OpenAI is still building out its ad system.* An OpenAI ads executive described "Sponsored Agents" on Mobile Dev Memo. These are clearly labeled brand chatbots you can talk to after clicking an ad. OpenAI also announced a LiveRamp partnership that lets advertisers target their own customer lists inside ChatGPT. Amazon says advertisers will soon be able to buy ChatGPT ads through Amazon's own ad-buying system.
* *Retail media's big problem this week was proving the ads work.* Retailers' sales reports don't match up with each other, and brands find that adding up every retailer's credited sales gives a total bigger than their real sales. Albertsons and Best Buy both launched new tools to measure this. A Mondelēz (Oreo) executive's line: "gone are the days of retailers grading their own homework."
* *Walmart's ad business grew 38% last quarter*, per The Investor's Podcast. Walmart doesn't disclose the dollar amount.

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## What's new

### 1. Apple blocks The Trade Desk's ads in Safari

The biggest ad-tech story of the week came out of the Programmatic I/O conference. AdExchanger's own podcast, *The Big Story* (*"Apple Takes A Bite Out Of Programmatic,"* Oct 1), covered it in depth. Marketecture covered it the next day.

*What happened.* For years, Apple's Safari browser has blocked "data brokers." These are companies that follow you from site to site to build a profile, like LiveRamp. With the iOS 27 update, released a couple of weeks ago, Apple's WebKit team (the engineers behind Safari) added a lot more names to that list: LiveRamp, Permutive, ID5 and Unified ID 2.0 (UID2). UID2 is the industry ID system that The Trade Desk created to replace cookies.

The surprise was *adsrvr.org*. That is the web address The Trade Desk has used to serve ads since the company started. AdExchanger reporter James Hercher explained on the podcast that, because of this, The Trade Desk is "not able to serve ads whatsoever to Safari users who have iOS 27."

*Why this is different from past Apple privacy moves.* On *Marketecture* (*"Episode 193,"* Oct 2), Ari Paparo, who has run several ad-tech companies, drew the key distinction. Safari has long blocked companies that only track data. Companies that track and also serve ads were left alone until now. "This is the first instance where the ads themselves are being blocked, which is obviously a much bigger deal than just having the pixels blocked." His co-host Eric Franchi pointed out that Google's DoubleClick and Yahoo's ads still go through on the same pages.

*How big is the hit?* Franchi said "5% to 7% of U.S. web traffic is going to iOS 27 today," and that "typically, this will head towards 20-plus percent as adoption climbs." It could be more if the Mac version of Safari is affected too. On The Big Story, Hercher said only a minority of iPhone owners have updated so far, "but even like some sort of double digit minority percent of Safari is a lot of people."

*Was it a mistake?* Nobody knows. The only public record is a thread on GitHub (a site where software engineers post code and bug reports). In it, The Trade Desk's head of engineering, Ian Meyer, politely asks Apple's John Wilander for "an ETA on your findings." Wilander replies that he "will let you know if and when any changes are available for you to test." The Big Story's hosts said the exchange showed the power balance between Apple and everyone else. Paparo laid out two possibilities:

* *If it was a mistake,* The Trade Desk can switch to a new web address and patch things up within a few weeks.
* *If it was deliberate,* "then it's whack-a-mole," because any new address will just get blocked too. His guess is that WebKit sees UID2 as a data-broker service, which California law arguably supports, and that ad serving got swept up with it.

*The business risk.* Paparo said outages like this happen in ad tech, but this one is unusually widespread. He also noted that The Trade Desk apparently didn't tell its clients; several people said they first heard about it on social media. "When the narrative is flowing against you, bad news like this just makes it worse. A client might choose to run a campaign on a different DSP this week." (A DSP, or demand-side platform, is the software advertisers use to buy ads across many websites and apps.)

On The Big Story, Hercher compared it to Apple's 2021 App Tracking Transparency change, which he said cost Meta "something like $10 billion of revenue." He also explained why it may be worse in one way. That change was a broad policy that hit everyone equally, and the tracking ID still existed if users said yes. This time it's a targeted block list. He called it a sword of Damocles hanging over The Trade Desk, and "for all ad tech companies, because they could be added to a block list and had no recourse other than reaching out to John Wilander on GitHub." ID5's CEO, Mathieu Roche, told AdExchanger this was a new step by Apple against companies whose business is core infrastructure for publishers.

The Trade Desk had not given AdExchanger any comment by the time the story was published. [The Big Story](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhxLxYrmwsZPG-2F9hV1lBKihuquSnQtYBugI1-2FZK-2BqgdlKt8Q37ABv0yLqA49yee7CgraiGVonKY0JAqYu7F-2FvYMJgYRvNk3bu1Ey7KxU-2BzkQw-3D-3Dg92L_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJO-2BsUpVGphVCciVYy2B3ApbBabuO0Q4-2BNF8wheHMHLYhbj2OJHPAwv7f7U2poK9OMwxdXqJiXGykOMlnEg4vhb2plQ3r5NrJ1h5LtwpLg9fFF8GR0CWD1R20fx9G-2FSBn5A-3D-3D) · [Marketecture: Get Smart. Fast., Episode 193](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6PMK-2F2hllzKI-2FCE5XmBPFDOfXQazNlups6qO0e8O1tHvABZt-2B61-2FWldlxokL32hb2xVjDuENojoMF5GwMZ9IDdyWhITYapJa0igMUTXvKZQ-3D-3DV3bs_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJDAkCMgWzDhESQOWXWvva4yj3LXMYAXu-2BAAhO5dTPlQFvMULr4Yj3C68G-2BSlS1VEN57fU-2F9IpITUYimtOseKACaOy1BOlhUIu67evD-2Fi6B0Rwz3ubl421VXNN-2BymwMFH1Q-3D-3D)

### 2. Amazon Unboxed: the ad console becomes an agent

Paparo recorded Marketecture from a San Francisco hotel while attending *Amazon Unboxed*, Amazon's yearly advertising conference. He guessed about 3,000 people were there and the keynote was standing room only. That is far bigger than other ad-tech events; he said Programmatic I/O "probably [isn't] even near 1,000." His overall view: "Nothing like absolutely breakthrough in terms of the announcements, but pretty interesting."

What Amazon announced:

* *"Amazon Ads Agent."* Amazon has rebranded its whole ad-buying front door as an agent. You type what you want and it builds the plan. Paparo saw live demos ("give us a business plan, you know, a media plan across multiple channels with this budget, these targets, and boom") and said it "demoed really nicely." He made a fair point about who it's for. Unlike Google, which keeps separate tools for small advertisers and big agencies, Amazon has "really unsophisticated customers and really sophisticated customers using the exact same UI."
* *A rename.* Amazon's ad-buying platform (its DSP) is now called "DVA Plus" (digital, video, audio, plus). Paparo gave it "a C on renames" because there are already DV360, DoubleVerify and others called DV. He also said it "will have zero revenue impact."
* *"Branded Conversations."* These are sponsored chats on a product page that guide a shopper toward one product. The example given was a hair-care brand helping you figure out whether frizz comes from humidity or damage. Brands shape the chat with a written brief but can't choose which reviews the AI shows, and they pay per click. Paparo called it "a bit of a baby step," because the shopper has to start the chat themselves.
* *"Sponsored Reviews."* This was Epstein's favorite. Brands bid on keywords and products to show "leave a review" prompts to past buyers inside the normal Amazon shopping experience, effectively paying per review. Epstein said every new product needs reviews to get its first sales, which has fed a "black hat, gray hat market" for fake ones. Paying Amazon to prompt real buyers is "win-win-win." His prediction: "I think it's going to be a billion-dollar ad unit for Amazon," and "probably going to be the most incremental to their advertising business." Paparo added that reviewing likely follows an 80/20 rule, with a few people writing most reviews, so Amazon can easily target the people who actually write them.
* *Ads in Alexa+.* Epstein said Rufus, Amazon's shopping assistant, "is now Alexa Plus," and that "there's now ads in Alexa Plus," including branded conversations and sponsored prompts.

### 3. Why Amazon keeps the agents out

Last week's big question was why Amazon blocked Meta's new AI agent, Muse. This week Epstein gave the clearest answer we've heard:

* Amazon has "let's call it [an] $80 billion advertising business." His very rough estimate, "no sources," is that "65% of that $80 billion business is onsite sponsored ads." Those are the paid listings that appear when you search on Amazon.com.
* When an AI agent shops for you, it skips those pages. "Amazon has a tremendous amount of downside risk in potential lost advertising revenue from the clicks and impressions that people are not taking and AI agents are taking on their behalf." So the decision to block agents "is directly correlated to the downside risk of their advertising business."
* On Amazon's official reason (that agents don't have the best access to inventory, reviews and prices), he translated it as "really just another way of saying we have leverage."
* Amazon can do this because it has about "50% of all of e-commerce," so it controls where most people start shopping online. It cut off ChatGPT earlier, "still cuts off ChatGPT and any other AI agent," and is suing Perplexity.
* *The key line:* what matters to Amazon is "what drives incremental ad revenue, A, and what protects downside risk of ad revenue, B. And B is probably more important than A."

*The tell:* Amazon announced that advertisers will soon be able to buy ChatGPT ads through Amazon's own ad-buying system. Epstein's point is that Amazon only partners with an AI company once that company has enough ad space for Amazon to sell. The lesson for agent makers: build a real ad business first, and then Amazon will talk to you.

*Why Instacart said yes and Amazon said no.* Muse can order groceries through Instacart. Paparo asked why a low-margin company with "a multi-billion dollar ad business" would let an agent in. Epstein: "because they don't have the leverage that Amazon has." Instacart is "in a knife fight" with Uber Eats and DoorDash and has to stand out.

*Meta and Shopify.* Epstein expects Meta, Muse and Shopify to work closely together on checkout and product discovery. He noted that he'd seen a claim that more than half of Shopify sales are fashion and apparel, categories people mostly don't buy on Amazon. So he doesn't see it as a direct threat to Amazon. Paparo raised the reverse question: will Meta block other companies' agents from Instagram and push its users to Muse?

*Will regular people even use these agents?* Paparo was doubtful: "I still don't think this is for ordinary consumers... we're still, like, in the white-collar elite user world." He thinks it's for the top 20–30% by income and tech comfort. Epstein's "litmus test" was his wife, who doesn't work in tech. Nobody in her office talks about Muse. He said agents still fail at basic jobs. Muse couldn't book his restaurant reservations ("five out of ten"). It "accidentally sent the car salesman five emails in a row" while negotiating a lease. It couldn't switch his insurance. It does run his fantasy football team well ("A plus").

He also mentioned Muse's compute costs. Muse checks in on its own on a fixed schedule rather than in real time, because "otherwise, the token cost per consumer wouldn't be $3,000 to $7,000. It would be like $50,000 to $100,000." (A token is a small chunk of text that AI models process and charge by.) That's a number to watch as investors weigh what Muse costs Meta. [Marketecture: Get Smart. Fast., Episode 193](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6PMK-2F2hllzKI-2FCE5XmBPFDOfXQazNlups6qO0e8O1tHvABZt-2B61-2FWldlxokL32hb2xVjDuENojoMF5GwMZ9IDdyWhITYapJa0igMUTXvKZQ-3D-3DqHtm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJO74bZahhvNqmlnJ-2BLMhBmEyjFgwoRwVQcNeKnWoNvGuJglDoWEbc9hjVKqQOGeYw0TLUzfFAlRsvDUAp6GJU4oZBa-2Fi-2FKrST3qxMJHaTMY01C2guE8q84jDtB2sScu0QQ-3D-3D)

### 4. ChatGPT's ads: what the $1 billion number really means

*The Digiday Podcast* (*"Can OpenAI build a $1 billion ad empire?,"* Sept 29) put OpenAI's ad numbers in context. Crystal Scanlon, Digiday's senior platforms reporter, joined Tim Peterson and Kimeko McCoy.

* *Run rate isn't revenue.* Scanlon reported in August that ChatGPT ads hit a $1 billion "annualized run rate" after self-serve ads opened in Europe. She explained that a run rate takes one month's (or one quarter's) revenue and multiplies it up to a full year: "that doesn't necessarily mean that they're already making over a billion." Peterson said he's seen companies use one week of revenue to do this, "the most bullshit type of number possible."
* *The real goal.* Reports said OpenAI's internal target was "$2.5 billion in ad revenue, not a run rate, but actual revenue by the end of the year." Peterson did the math: even if OpenAI had reached $1 billion of real revenue by August, it would still need $1.5 billion in the last four months. "Other reports since" say OpenAI has missed internal targets.
* *Expansion.* ChatGPT ads are now in 60 markets, up from 40 when the $1 billion figure was announced. Southeast Asia and Taiwan were added in the past week.
* *Big long-term claims.* OpenAI has talked about $100 billion of ad revenue by 2030. eMarketer forecasts the entire US chatbot ad market at about $5.4 billion by 2030.
* *The constraint isn't demand.* This was the most useful detail of the episode. Peterson's sources are performance agencies with big search, social and Amazon budgets. They said "they have clients actively spending $10 million a month on Google ads, but aren't able to spend more than $100,000 a month on ChatGPT ads. And it's not because the clients don't want to spend that money. There just isn't the inventory available." Earlier this year, buyers had agreed to six- and seven-figure commitments and then couldn't spend them.
* *Other hurdles.* Measurement is still young. OpenAI has a tracking pixel and a Conversions API (a way for advertisers to send sales data back), and AppsFlyer is a measurement partner, but reporting is delayed. Some brands' legal teams are refusing to sign OpenAI's terms for sharing sales data, calling them "really rigid" with "too much liability on the advertiser."
* *Who's doing well.* Agency executives said retail advertisers perform best right now. Many ChatGPT conversations simply don't have enough shopping intent for ads to show up or get clicked.
* *Q4 is still test budgets.* Both reporters said ad buyers are spending small, experimental amounts going into the holiday quarter, "not nearly on the level of the money that's going to, like, Google, Meta, Amazon." Peterson added that buyers want OpenAI to succeed anyway, because a real competitor "will keep Google, Meta, Amazon honest" on price.

[The Digiday Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgHVpNXdNPMOgKfGcEHonzXBXjQNUPuf0yJypdS0GyQ04gWyEVoZB86-2FarNkAGkE1zZXn-2FniGEyQmE5vUQZLgRtNW1-2B1ImjpUy6u-2FbNcJWpkA-3D-3DdV_Z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJA2dt2Ssz9jdC-2BHG8uXJEl9LMvuxy5GAHS5ah2jFlrae-2FgvI7hoPKz3-2FnBgzyk-2Fo3NVpJzCfWM9weEhVEBqTZ10-2BnTx4sXwRKF0m8CCrPL2BRMLZAio-2FMsm1GwIXPYrpEw-3D-3D)

### 5. Inside OpenAI's ad system: Sponsored Agents and "fewer impressions"

On *Mobile Dev Memo* (*"Season 7, Episode 35: OpenAI's advertising ambitions (with Asad Awan),"* Sept 29), host Eric Seufert interviewed OpenAI's Asad Awan, who is building ChatGPT's ad business after a long career at Meta. This is an insider's view, so read it as OpenAI's pitch, but it's specific:

* *Why chatbot ads could be worth more than search ads.* Seufert's argument: a search query is a "compressed expression of intent," while a conversation reveals "preferences, constraints, my budget." Awan added that ChatGPT's memory feature carries preferences across separate conversations, which "does enable us to serve really, really good ads."
* *Three formats he described:*
   1. *Dynamic creative* that explains why you're seeing the ad. If you're a nurse who's on your feet all day, the sneaker ad leads with cushioning.
   2. *Variant selection*: choosing the right size or color, not just the right product.
   3. *Sponsored Agents*: after clicking an ad, you can enter "a clearly labeled conversation with a business," kept separate from your original chat.
* *Built for automation from day one.* Having seen how Meta's ad system grew more complicated over time, he wants to "start from max automation from day zero," reduce narrow targeting, and avoid "50 types of bidding systems."
* *The business model, in his words.* ChatGPT has "more than like 1 billion weekly active users," but "just being large with a lot of consumers... earns you a conversation, but it doesn't earn you the budgets." The goal is "highly relevant ads with much fewer impressions." That's the opposite of a social feed, where more scrolling means more ads.

*AI Applied* (*"OpenAI Introduces Sponsored Agents,"* Sept 28) walked through an example. You ask ChatGPT how to organize your customers, and it offers a labeled, sponsored HubSpot agent to chat with. Co-host Jaeden (AI Box) compared it to Meta's in-app lead forms that keep you on Instagram. He said it means brands now need a sales chatbot as well as landing pages and videos. He also said campaigns are set up just by chatting with ChatGPT, and repeated the roughly "billion dollars a year" ad figure he attributed to Sam Altman.

Two more data points:

* *OpenAI is partnering with LiveRamp* to bring "custom audiences" (advertisers' own customer lists) into ChatGPT ads, per Marketecture. Paparo's comment: "take the Facebook ad roadmap from like 2018... do a search or replace for meta versus OpenAI. And that's the roadmap for the OpenAI ads team."
* *Small advertisers are piling in early.* On *The Dental CEO Podcast* (Sept 28), dental marketer Bill Donato compared ChatGPT ads to early Google Ads. In 2011 he paid "about $2 a click" for dental ads in Atlanta, versus "$12 for those same clicks" today on Google. On *eCommerce Fastlane* (Sept 29), an affiliate marketer said review sites are already buying ChatGPT ads to send traffic to their pages. He expects his own Amazon-affiliate campaigns on ChatGPT to go live "by the end of next week."

[Mobile Dev Memo Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjKDyj786UQyEVyVyiYgeJxaOI275dMyu0hsjSc-2Fihe9EMSWbusgcvvWG9I-2FXH7Sexj7IFR5eiHM-2BVfgKp5SESb43CSK6Evhq-2FvtUAQVVQZ0Q-3D-3DG81L_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJOkuQ0u4FK0c1vxYlGbBUBACy5b6lCvy9vZMXJ6J8lukQNfeX-2BKTE1ENs-2BpJ4rUCM4qCSzkAfhIJ4G5b2Cy-2BiUDTaGoSkhUvQXjihi8Snk1RO3XBTF3r5KH7BBt7DHDTgg-3D-3D) · [AI Applied](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi4HV-2FtZqsLwhw5EoxcqrJqW3d8TH0MWJvyLyoGp7OrUD4XNJaitOS-2Bx5Y0y8qYtT9LoMKJBOLjhdzPLPFTBEXjeD6xZc0ZtLwTRRVbLZzCgA-3D-3DwD-7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJDn6ofbeob2itJyLv4hd3Ijdq0LS-2BN0pJkR5ZlR5lqZiGSp5wbNuPE4chfKnzWeBZAYTWM0z5rstEOI5uK-2F2196z3tmDbI9-2BDX4-2FqFcFns0ceDQS5zjeJ3lhXQHRZwns7w-3D-3D) · [The Dental CEO Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiRlkfR6pMobvuoYTuQjMhfJygNULWe2ukwjPENgs-2F-2F39yfl59AiDSR4IROVyL9sQYVJ5dyiI6jrbb0bxJSDUM0dERJgP7mAtIgnPy2Jb-2F1Wg-3D-3DjZvC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJMH3P2JN8PjkzLm8UaKksWSJSrLE0xhYdur4r5yZkLgihyqnNKhW0rqB0xIEF7veBalMzXO-2BVgPuK31sBB-2FT5yd48jt97B1meWr66G68SeIOgX8Ta0hScK2Wg8lCA34guQ-3D-3D) · [eCommerce Fastlane](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjYMjjMm6apgTZx0mi3zULPTIHhYx98IAqVZK-2B15c2MXLJF3Fr4n-2FX0bacrJqqaZsO3p-2BSHfbtQG3v8JLfI1gf1l-2Bj6VjyOOjw1PJEsCqKaOQ-3D-3DX5wT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJGg1LzdebiIJwM-2FNXMUp9-2BlQLT5gFPXiCD8wNdO9vXPJXnWmBbwNKl48cpp7wC1-2FbHjy4xIfe-2FZAba1qtDzp-2FgOzWEBsPDHIDyuqATLQ7Yv-2B5QTKfKWisbPsz120t7gslg-3D-3D)

### 6. Meta: the ad business pays for Muse

There was no new data on Meta's core ad business this week; last week's Q2 pricing discussion still stands. The most useful Meta episode connected ads to Muse.

On *The Prof G Pod* (*"Can Meta's Muse AI Agent Save You Money?,"* Sept 30), the host made a simple point: Meta can give Muse away because ads pay for it.

* "In the last quarter alone, Meta did $59 billion in advertising revenue. The entire rest of the business did $1.5 billion. Meta is an advertising company."
* Muse's free tier gives 100 million tokens a week. Paid plans are $20 a month for 500 million tokens a week and $100 a month for 3 billion. Rivals ration usage because "they can't afford to just give away all this compute." "Meta can afford to subsidize demand while other AI players are forced to rate limit their users."
* Muse has passed *3.4 million downloads* "in its first couple of weeks" (last week's podcasts cited 2.5 million in 13 days). Meta's stock went "from $613 a share the day before Muse's launch to around $720 a share" at the time of recording, though it was down 4% that day after Meta announced a new enterprise AI business.
* The ad angle for consumers: "I love targeted ads. I don't give a shit about data privacy. I would much rather Mark Zuckerberg see all my data and send me better ads, more useful information through Muse." That's one host's opinion, but it's the bet Meta is making.
* *Who loses when agents cancel things for you.* The host cited a Goldman Sachs "consumer inertia" basket of companies that profit from people not canceling or switching. On September 22 it "got crushed": Planet Fitness –9.5%, LPL Financial –7.5%, The New York Times –7.2%, Schwab –6.1%, Allstate –5.5%. That isn't an ads story directly, but it shows how far investors are taking the "agents change consumer behavior" idea.

On *The Synopsis* (*"How Meta's Muse Changed the AI Debate with MBI,"* Sept 29), the guest, the analyst known as MBI, gave a hands-on example. Muse searched his Airbnb history, suggested experiences nearby, and then found one he could book directly with the host for less; he said the Airbnb price was 60% higher. His point was that Instagram already knows his travel interests from the reels he saves, "the kind of data Airbnb will never have." The ad angle: travel and booking sites are big buyers of search ads, so an agent that skips them threatens that spending.

[The Prof G Pod](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjqPWFUdbVmIludtQCU1JQMN6Z7ui6Aycab7TWsohK42yXcdZxuv3YkxM93jjuOqjwLwhRdSOJAx-2B-2Fp-2BsUVhq9Xtlnpku7E2ol-2B-2BY5YBc6iaQ-3D-3DkmwV_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJD-2FShX4Lu7jCwyqXbdfcXRA0uJUdJJm6zLNWlwOeoX4VD38sqmigHEgi1uDSSUe8GDQByu7v7MxZZcYH2HBTqTWBm6JwbdQivdtlQm33qLnWtkxl5aYNStmJY4pb1-2BshFw-3D-3D) · [The Synopsis](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjmLSu6-2Bny-2F66ugy5ofOJZzxvMUDbotwndxg3JdU-2F0kNRc2fXY8keXuXhPHObetbyBdZsbLHhtozZm8mh7-2BF5c-2FOBuW6MenQ-2BV30yyxRfKvlw-3D-3DH8xm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJEI7FtzE8INZcvWw-2Bb2WN5e10mGeW5VwaIxO1rD5kMyKT5pbwBSbDwg3t-2FkI8y5igiRZbBo4M1WYQNj5mMn1EwxLoBL2P5HfTJfs1NAswaVPywougoMweuDBWsW8Z7J9QA-3D-3D)

### 7. Retail media: brands want proof

Three retail-media podcasts this week came back to one question: how do you know the ads caused the sale?

*Retailers grade their own homework.* On *RETHINK RETAIL* (*"Retail Media's $100B Question: Can You Prove It?,"* Sept 28), Lindsay Pullins of Circana talked with host Jeremy Goldman. Circana is a market-research firm; Pullins previously worked at Kroger Precision Marketing and Roku. She said the industry has settled whether retail media drives sales ("the answer is yes"). The problem is that results come from the retailer or the platform itself: "It's not independent. It's certainly grading your own homework." Brands spending across dozens of retail networks are comparing "apples to oranges to pears to broccoli to Brussels sprouts," because each network uses different methods, time windows and definitions of a "new buyer." She cited the ANA's recent call for standards: *55% of advertisers* name lack of standardization as the barrier. She put retail media at about *$100 billion* and said it is trying to move from one channel among many to a "must-buy" in the main media budget.

*Retailers launch new measurement tools.* On *Retail Media Breakfast Club* (*"RMNs Are Launching MTA. Do Brands Want It? [Part 1],"* Oct 1), Kiri Masters opened with a fitting comparison. Brands add up the sales credited by every retail network and "somehow, the total comes out bigger than their actual sales." Two retailers just launched multi-touch attribution (MTA), which splits credit for a sale across every ad the shopper saw instead of giving it all to the last click:

* *Albertsons Media Collective* (announced Sept 17), built with LiveRamp and piloted by PepsiCo. It connects exposure across Albertsons' own channels and outside media back to its sales data.
* *Best Buy Ads*, built in-house, which went live for all advertisers on Sept 30.

Masters was skeptical. She rarely hears brands ask retailers for MTA. Brands bring in their own media-mix modeling (statistical models that estimate what each channel contributed) and normalization tools instead. She also noted MTA "fell out of favor in broader marketing circles some years ago" once privacy limits and walled gardens made it unreliable. An anonymous contact at a multinational food company told her, "I think MTA is a dying breed." She'll argue the case for it in Part 2.

*The case that retail media is actually under-credited.* On *The CPG Guys* (Sept 30), Stan Turek of InMarket (its head of measurement, and on the IAB board) argued the reverse. Retail networks may be undervaluing themselves, "because you can serve me an ad at Kroger and I can go still buy it at Costco or Walmart or Safeway." Media-mix models also tend to miss narrowly targeted ads, so retail networks get "dinged... a couple times." InMarket can leave Kroger out of its comparison group to measure sales Kroger ads drove at other stores. Rick Schumann of Mondelēz said independent numbers change his talks with retailers: "It's no longer a feeling-based or emotion-based conversation... I think gone are the days of retailers grading their own homework." He added that retail media still under-invests in creative, often running "one size fits all creative." The host cited a stat: 67% of marketers call proving incremental return their top challenge, and only 22% can act on a measurement result in time to matter.

*Kroger's pitch.* On RETHINK RETAIL's second episode (*"Amazon vs. Meta: Who Controls the AI Shopper?,"* Oct 2), a Kroger Precision Marketing executive made the scale case. "11 million people shop at Kroger every day." "95% of Kroger sales are connected to our loyalty program." The average basket has about 15 items. Kroger also lets brands use its audiences through outside ad-buying platforms, including The Trade Desk, Google DV360 and Yahoo DSP. Her view is that only "a few national retailers" can be strong partners, because you need scale, loyalty-card data and the technology to connect them.

*Walmart.* On *The Investor's Podcast* (*"TIP850: Walmart (WMT): From Discount Retailer to eCommerce Powerhouse,"* Oct 1; reposted as *TIVP100* on The Intrinsic Value Podcast, Oct 4), Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley noted Walmart's advertising business "has grown 38% in the last quarter." They also said "Walmart is actually pretty hush on their disclosures," so "we don't actually know what the real revenue numbers are." They see Walmart making money from ads the way Amazon does, through paid search placements and branded ads. That makes ads one of several new profit sources alongside membership and marketplace fees.

[RETHINK RETAIL, $100B Question](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg0RJliC3YB2AiviwutFK9dNakfIadtCXiDdZAk0eMbaghMROMfQADCb2u3G23BSp1Uj8LWFTWvmSmpHc3bPb2gqMHVVIN1nP9v0WKWH4WxNw-3D-3D4mvL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJGcFhXovhv1NMh1JkJoUjztBvGHHUEr1eXESvcHHAF4Kfp90Xxh2TFyf5g-2BRbpPIdKM3HSlKjfQFXWpNMCXls-2BS1h-2FRyfarwWPAWJlIgxTsEp6P48QOIVtz98SKRQYP2YQ-3D-3D) · [Retail Media Breakfast Club](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQi-2Fx40qt9QkUBaNJ-2BslmCEO209FhYBA57PhKon6tmj382fi-2BtO-2FFnNaEN-2Fb1MwhguLbkIz45KzAhDhuzuhiHMm-2BiIskOzwuJEAsTEi5YhVw-3D-3DkNyT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJMA-2Fo46r75Enekt4ZAH08JZsRhcHNivaTp4RvQu2CBjGAVJ-2F4Wt92iVH3tyoZhnlV1tx77IVjpFVlEez8ZIII86FfWRFkGE7wcM2PZGnpxJXGA-2Bg5MQnfQZM7uRm58Pt7g-3D-3D) · [The CPG Guys](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgXzqMZBBJHXM0MCgMi4Fbxr1WGl7Z31jex2ktTVlyb4gMOcwqZLiZy0au-2ByLHyqa4FOe0Mcwkw0smhPaMaPQL87rLdzQMlfQm8d0AeQdolyg-3D-3DaulR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJBzZpXyWxcFlMFwTYdJzChgyQ1cmHbl49azWSO7OzPbkJ-2FCipKcTIEDwaudK-2BVKQ7rvO-2B69Z8CiL4qSeQG-2FFrWFH-2Bv9nTn2xxyhPoS-2FOMTs7znQIETkPvpE9oxvZ-2FY4etQ-3D-3D) · [RETHINK RETAIL, Amazon vs. Meta](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhE8rvo2sPYUL4QmHQhz3X-2Fb1J3GwA7zxjjiWGbnPJo4ub2Hew0ph3xDSlZNO4lx9iWJoH783-2Fb5yspCbZpJvrh982vV9u2se3k2zdc2muymA-3D-3D2USt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJFoLthMsEnjcNArQn4sHOArMWp7e3Dmk2y2tHBSXWoWjkuj1p5uqgPbbnow5E4IgfuVA0QLQrhyzMRjJQr1AYavVKdnB774aaOQRwCHF5G1ZVPWMnXB2yjMnymSL-2FjGiDA-3D-3D) · [The Investor's Podcast, TIP850](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj4PHq9OOLTUV2unPdCQ7ntlDS1xTMlNqU5vD-2BiUvLHnWVPJ5XGFhue7SQC6VEnkgSaOoQIMsGSUUNZ8vwXrHxhe8v45P-2B58Ygafz2Q-2B5ldgA-3D-3Djv9N_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJFJjJrYgkOgTF4Trtz-2BtGW5MvHVOeIIfo0MNGoInolJIHIxnZR3S8WoLb70C7sTpMPCfbbpy2ytnQLPsqBJ-2BcZUQ1yPpoiukm-2F6psETFSGLbpt1grDGa2jX-2BtjKqboSpDg-3D-3D) · [The Intrinsic Value Podcast, TIVP100](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiO7RMBgU5R0nIq55susV-2FbbTVXZ4gZKXgTb19uHRtlkLcpLRjAmp6surT0XChRvFFDiGjv1Rn0B0-2FGo0wQjdMOJ5kfLKX6oMNCSFlZd9zfaw-3D-3Dau_S_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJJFVfwYiIqsFnYyue4nKjf5lWktnpYqDm7Vsalmutjp2pAIXJcMCzFq7UJqOGKEi5bz143Uu0i-2FtR0jWC6LMi-2BbE9IN82-2FdXDL9OEYKe-2BtqrLCdjyWApvalZv6371Z0DlQ-3D-3D)

### 8. Streaming TV ads: live sports and Netflix

*Live sports.* On *AdTechGod Pod* (Sept 30), FreeWheel's Gil Sommer said *30% of ad-supported TV viewing in Q4 last year was live sports.* FreeWheel is Comcast's ad-serving business for TV and streaming. The audiences are huge: "close to 8 million users on every game" for the World Cup, and "upward of, you know, 20 or 25 million" for a streaming-only Sunday Night Football. FreeWheel is testing "live contextual break-level targeting" this NFL season. An advertiser will know, for example, that the Chiefs just scored a touchdown before the break and can run a matching ad. The hard part is technical: live breaks change length without warning (an injury timeout can stretch one), and the system has to manage pacing and keep competing brands apart across millions of viewers at once.

*Netflix.* On *CNBC's "Fast Money"* (Sept 29), the hosts covered Deutsche Bank's upgrade of Netflix from hold to buy. The bank cut its price target from $100 to $95. One panelist put the stock at "18 to 20 times forward earnings" and said that with the US subscriber business maturing, "their advertising revenue, that's going to really have to do a lot of the bulk here."

*A small brand's TV test.* *The DTC Podcast* (Oct 1) carried a mid-size apparel brand's playbook for testing connected TV: about $20,000 a month for 60 days, per the episode title. The brand said rising acquisition costs on Meta pushed it to look at streaming TV for brand awareness.

[AdTechGod Pod, FreeWheel](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOitITUO8YMTYPTZ586SQUae0rH3QaOcrQ5q4-2BGvtV307iC88t-2FtIbifq-2FQhl5b9HYaLBL9Eqjp38gyoEqL3UA8rf9SJD5GCg6UgXgRfdkrKMg-3D-3Dg2sq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJJ88MRrkZEBjhDLxr7NYkRqDDI7V3R9JPdgXfGVt-2BlcR6vyHghD2VJjb2JVxEs7NiFbn-2B-2FL-2B2H2zPCrdMZTOwG7WA4aNHLBSqaS-2BQCm6ePMWnUeQ3awgOpjfdWxRmIfLSQ-3D-3D) · [CNBC's "Fast Money"](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjAbx5ggX0fLi0MtrMVir7gGIpzwhkqd-2BB-2Fk7R2NTGTMVKAR-2Fu4UiahWXDZEaVBf-2BuvAvHt0VfWC59JQr-2B5hVoL1eBrVa1-2BoW5bHzLE308TaA-3D-3Dl6Yl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJFb-2BuTksIM-2BMJN9UDy18mZZ9APxzYnnH9ogdJ3syx-2B5uMK75-2Fdcktafor87h-2B6PChs71k-2BgB5Uqim3xyu-2BaxprTpxbPmoQtMcQsjtPGlbxacP1a4HGHT2bb3EwTz7WP-2FrA-3D-3D) · [The DTC Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjzGdxTVAo4JsiAbv-2B5r0Xz6YaR1YdiFl5Sa0nkkIBk0TZWK79-2FpXcpl6CatqT5coGedegGo5K5dGTXTdn692GjecbcavTVMudIc-2FMbjLRG4Q-3D-3DmAUb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJI5vksQcMt4e-2B5JfNC4ARzvJ9BBArj9cbd60K6-2Bs-2Ba9-2BS5rdFi-2BjG8-2Bf2yggu2EMxpQGeXOlISYpMxVSnuXfmOrOBJ3sbCkUpHgBzzbdM1UPokitU9DMEJGXUhNJT7NkMw-3D-3D)

### 9. Quick hits

* *LiveRamp's pricing reset.* On *Run the Numbers* (Sept 28), LiveRamp CFO Lauren Dillard described cutting more than 25 usage-based pricing metrics down to five, based on what customers do with their data records, using a "token" system. The hard part, she said, is everything downstream: billing, revenue operations and support. The episode came the same week Safari added LiveRamp to its block list and LiveRamp signed its OpenAI partnership. [Run the Numbers](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg7lL2O-2FjGVuIrfe6n4sypB-2FHqDSA3m8PmeGK3tV1R-2FGvZJdiJyNykz2ke7bDBLZCSUeQGU5SmtmcL4wjWzwNqD-2FV3ITLa5waoSxXPFP0OgsA-3D-3De0AP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJGSgb0grMZydWpjuv9ICvNHBib7wvFW9-2Fl5hRwAN1khlljPGBev2ZP0u3eLZ0Ca0Nb2oaHa97Fsew1I8fG4deeBujN2ZLKg7Kd-2FwjjInegEbXPryUgm35lzbgORlvAtjzg-3D-3D)
* *Google Shopping.* On *The Jason & Scot Show* (Sept 29), Google Shopping's Nicole Netland said queries in Google's AI Mode run about three times longer than traditional searches. That's the same "richer intent" argument OpenAI makes for chatbot ads, but there was no discussion of ads or ad revenue. [The Jason & Scot Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJsijPvVUy7M6xmdSqnnf5pxzS-2FNLtk-2FpjDm3w4D53JNdwMmAbdsbybuqakBSFrWPy5lTqQMtbexaLFeNhj7d-2BqaCxp1g4NrxP-2BVpE8qGbCg-3D-3DYfOx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJKKH4sQKXa-2Bfx5xEDTPrleYNK2lB00nOe-2BuJLw5t3rbDCInS46XDEtW7mvxJe3cLMllAPnE8rXu0-2FyFdtmvUrhEmJoUvl7gM-2BHY0F33TdlGsZ5err6pMMPsxzXSR2-2Bhy-2Fg-3D-3D)
* *Amazon sellers push back on fees.* On *The Ecomcrew Ecommerce Podcast* (Oct 2), a seller campaign is asking Amazon for "five points back" on fees, arguing the "pendulum swung too far" this year. That matters for ads because sellers' profits fund their Amazon ad budgets. [The Ecomcrew Ecommerce Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi27UnelU9E0DsSD-2B8e4u1hnDUgLFWtnKboIW-2FCQeGse55-2Fiq5HesFaESUaXgVew9SVIq-2B9NSv-2F0FDTeFiQNMRruE-2ByMQcMQKQZpG8Aqqtdpg-3D-3D6Rmd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJHy-2Bue8kNh-2BbjKxkPV3wpZ4gYhp-2BIVC0-2B-2FpF7IKAi-2B0vXj0e6Pv3Ub7gUPhHzdI088Itee0AsYR71p6jnwT46vxt3GNSLLAbXnmQxapLit0kiUNim0zcDVtSSPKuVRvIBA-3D-3D)
* *New commerce media networks.* Marketecture noted Delta is hiring a GM to start a travel ad network, following United's. That comes a week after Citi and McDonald's ad networks were announced. Paparo: "I have never seen any stats on travel networks." [Marketecture, Episode 193](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6PMK-2F2hllzKI-2FCE5XmBPFDOfXQazNlups6qO0e8O1tHvABZt-2B61-2FWldlxokL32hb2xVjDuENojoMF5GwMZ9IDdyWhITYapJa0igMUTXvKZQ-3D-3DoyTS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbXFLIXJZVujYspm4YFEQeOkLJcBKLLzjiFX1b-2B-2B3vRaJDskexJgXTof7vd5Pi2SIYHEJ4sxNPqYIVsWt5lYvTJOjpAv-2FO6HsZuKfWlavG7EYxaf-2FTZckClCQ3v57JVSUNEVUTzOHup9WVhpcHZ8FGE4UXFd6kc8q2ssIT0aa0OWjQ-3D-3D)

---

## The debate

*Can AI shopping agents and ads live together?* This week the debate moved from theory to company strategy.

*The "agents threaten ads" side.* Epstein's analysis is the clearest version. Amazon's sponsored listings work because people browse Amazon's pages. Agents don't browse, so Amazon blocks them. Prof G's "annoyance economy" segment and The Synopsis's Airbnb example push the same idea further: agents strip out the friction that a lot of advertising and subscription revenue relies on. The Apple and Trade Desk story is a reminder that whoever controls the device or browser can switch off an ad business with one block-list entry.

*The "ads will adapt" side.* Every major platform is putting ads inside the agent rather than fighting it. Amazon is doing it with Branded Conversations, sponsored prompts in Alexa+ and the Ads Agent. OpenAI is doing it with Sponsored Agents and the LiveRamp audiences deal. Meta is using its $59 billion-a-quarter ad business to fund a free Muse. And Amazon is already willing to resell ChatGPT ads once there's enough space to sell. Awan's pitch is that chat ads can be worth more per impression because the platform knows more about what you want.

*Where we come out.* Both are true, on different timelines. In the short run, the ad dollars aren't moving. ChatGPT buyers can't spend more than about $100,000 a month, Q4 is still test budgets, and Paparo and Epstein agree regular consumers aren't using agents yet. The longer-run risk sits with companies whose ads depend on people browsing: Amazon's sponsored listings, travel booking sites' search ads, and open-web ad tech that relies on browsers cooperating. The near-term winners look like the platforms that own both the user and the ad system, which is why Meta's stock is up about $100 since the Muse launch even with no change in its core ad numbers.

*A second debate: who measures retail media?* Retailers are building their own attribution tools (Albertsons, Best Buy). Brands and independent firms (Circana, InMarket) say retailers shouldn't grade their own work. Masters is skeptical that brands want MTA from retailers at all. Whoever wins this decides how much of that roughly $100 billion pool moves from trade-promotion budgets into the main media budget.

---

## Stocks in play

| Company | What the podcasts said this week | Direction of the news |
|---|---|---|
| The Trade Desk (TTD) | Ads blocked in Safari on iOS 27; UID2 also on the list; no client notice reported; unclear if it was intentional (The Big Story, Marketecture) | Negative. Small hit today, bigger as iOS 27 spreads |
| Amazon (AMZN) | Unboxed: Ads Agent, Branded Conversations, Sponsored Reviews (a possible $1B product); still blocking agents to protect an ~$80B ad business; reselling ChatGPT ads (Marketecture) | Positive for ad products; agent risk is a long-term question |
| Meta (META) | $59B quarterly ad revenue funds free Muse; 3.4M downloads; stock ~$613 to ~$720 since launch (Prof G) | Positive mood; no new core ad data |
| Walmart (WMT) | Ad business +38% last quarter; dollar amount not disclosed (The Investor's Podcast) | Positive |
| LiveRamp (RAMP) | Pricing cut from 25+ metrics to 5 (CFO); OpenAI custom-audiences partner; built Albertsons' MTA; also newly on Safari's block list | Mixed |
| Netflix (NFLX) | Deutsche Bank upgrade to buy, target cut to $95; ads need to "do a lot of the bulk" (Fast Money) | Positive |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | Indirect only: AI Mode queries ~3x longer; DoubleClick unaffected by the Safari block; OpenAI chasing its search budgets | Neutral, little direct coverage |
| Instacart (CART) | Mentioned as a Muse partner because it lacks Amazon's leverage; no discussion of its ad business numbers | Neutral |
| Kroger (KR) | 11M daily shoppers, 95% of sales tied to loyalty cards; works with TTD/DV360/Yahoo DSPs | Neutral, pitch only |

*Private companies:* OpenAI ($1B run rate; $2.5B 2026 target reportedly at risk; 60 markets).

---

## Read-throughs

* *Other ad-tech firms that depend on Safari and IDs.* ID5, Permutive and LiveRamp were all named on the new Safari list. The Big Story's point is that any ad-tech company could be next. For publicly traded open-web ad tech (Magnite, PubMatic, Criteo), the question is how much of their business runs through Safari. If Apple's move proves deliberate, Google's DoubleClick (not blocked) gains a relative advantage on the open web.
* *Measurement and verification firms (DV, IAS).* The push for independent retail-media measurement (Circana, InMarket, the ANA) and the confusion over ChatGPT attribution both point to more demand for third-party measurement.
* *Travel booking sites (Expedia, Booking, Airbnb).* Epstein said "the extent to which these OTA intermediaries are able to maintain their leadership position is really dubious," citing a claim from rival agent Instinct that 60% of its sales come from travel bookings. These sites are among Google's biggest search advertisers.
* *Google Search.* Every ChatGPT ad dollar so far is a test budget taken mostly from search. The reported cap of about $100,000 a month shows that shift is still small.
* *Streaming platforms (Roku, Disney, Warner).* FreeWheel's 30% live-sports share and Netflix's dependence on ads support a premium for live and sports ad space.

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## What changed vs. last week

* *Amazon vs. Muse: no reversal.* Last week ARK's Brett Winton predicted Amazon would eventually give in. This week Epstein argued the opposite: Amazon will hold out until agents have ad businesses big enough to partner with, and it's already reselling ChatGPT ads. Amazon also now has its own AI ad products to defend.
* *ChatGPT ads: from celebration to scrutiny.* Last week's "$1B in under 200 days" story got a correction. It's a run rate. The $2.5 billion 2026 target may be slipping. Spending is held back by limited ad space, not by advertisers' interest.
* *The Trade Desk went from criticism to an actual problem.* Last week it came up only as a rival CEO's "3 to 5% grower" jab. This week it has a real operational issue with no clear end date.
* *Muse adoption kept growing.* Downloads went from 2.5 million in 13 days (last week) to 3.4 million (Prof G). Meta's stock is about $720, against ~$613 before launch.
* *Meta's core ad pricing debate went quiet.* There was no follow-up to last week's region-by-region impressions-versus-price analysis, and no update on the September performance dip.
* *Retail media themes shifted from partnerships to measurement.* Last week was about Best Buy/Fire TV, GoPuff/Instacart and Kroger growing 24%. This week was about proving results: Albertsons and Best Buy MTA, Circana and InMarket. New data point: Walmart ads +38%.

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