# White House Drops NIH Grant Veto Plan as Biotech Funding Holds and China Deals Mount - Life-Science Tools Recovery - Week of October 4, 2026 > Life-Science Tools Recovery for the week of October 4, 2026. A synthesis of what podcasts, investors and adjacent operators said about the tools group: the reported reversal of the White House plan to let political appointees veto NIH grants, a Biotech Hangout panel putting the XBI up 27% this year with 23 IPOs and AstraZeneca's $2 billion Summit stake, two more podcasts on China's roughly $137 billion of drug out-licensing, and a bioprocessing veteran on how perfusion went from a fool's game to standard practice. No coverage-company executive was on tape, so the read stays anchored to Thermo Fisher's September guidance ahead of Q3 results. ## Life-Science Tools Recovery ### Week of October 4, 2026: White House Drops NIH Grant Veto Plan as Biotech Funding Holds and China Deals Mount --- ## TL;DR * *One bear point from last week is gone.* Last week we flagged reports that the White House was drafting an executive order to let a new committee veto National Institutes of Health (NIH) grants. This week a podcast relayed Politico's reporting that the White House has *dropped* that plan after Senator Susan Collins pushed back. That removes a new risk to academic lab budgets. It does not add any new money. * *The companies themselves stayed off the tape.* No executive from any of the 15 coverage companies appeared on a podcast from September 27 to October 4, so there were no Q3 previews, no bioprocessing order data and no guidance. Nobody addressed whether the pharma tariff that was due to start on September 29 actually took effect, or what it covers. * *Biotech funding still looks healthy on the surface.* On Biotech Hangout, the hosts put the main biotech stock fund (the XBI) *up 27% this year*, versus 13% for the S&P 500. They counted about 23 biotech IPOs so far and expect "30 plus." AstraZeneca put $2 billion into Summit Therapeutics. A biotech CEO said pharma M&A has "increased dramatically" and won't slow down. Underneath, the XBI is down about 9% from its late-August peak, and the specialist funds are hurting. Two more podcasts made the China case: Chinese companies signed out-licensing deals worth about $137 billion last year, roughly half the global total. --- ## What's new No sitting executive of Thermo Fisher, Danaher, Agilent, Revvity, Sartorius, Bruker, Illumina, Repligen, Waters, Mettler-Toledo, Bio-Rad, 10x Genomics, PacBio, Maravai or Avantor appeared on a podcast this week. Part of it is the calendar: September's investor conferences are over, and Q3 results don't start until mid-to-late October. Companies tend to go silent right before they report. Even so, the bull case has had nothing new from the companies since Thermo Fisher's CEO spoke on September 20. Here is what the podcasts did cover, ranked by how much it matters for a portfolio. ### 1. The NIH grant-veto plan is off, for now. Last week the risk to academic funding got worse. This week it eased. On [Paging America](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgA2-2F5A-2FG5iHJiTfoS6oEDWml9CxOtHSBuMDErRd4qx15PjPmu-2FRqNDrYrV6ATGtnnWDiyICd8K6v75nLzHMBO9wok295FB7K7fCIfcPceWSA-3D-3DVyGG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c4Vs0sueQ8OY1nNOaO7b3dUwhV-2Fv3budEdEU67U363qPWsxivycYpGesExUxHhEMv6MW4w-2FEQjYtyHBLjrEtm5-2Fk1HMtyubGtotbFDfegaVD588pFj5ddwrljjry2jBz7Q-3D-3D) ("The MAHA Conference Goes Corporate," October 1), hosts Miles Baker and Dr. Rob Davidson reported the reversal. This is a *partisan political podcast relaying press reports*, not primary research. The same was true of the show we cited last week. Here is how they put it: "From reporting from Politico, the White House has dropped a planned executive order that would put control over medical research grants in the hands of political appointees, according to Senator Susan [Collins], who urged the White House to drop the matter after it was first reported by Politico on Saturday." According to the hosts, Collins had sent a letter to White House Budget Director Russ Vought and NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya "demanding that they abandon the idea." Even the hosts were careful about how much to read into it: the grants are safe "at least for now, for this like brief moment in time." *Why it moves numbers (our analysis):* Academic and government labs are a core market for Illumina, 10x Genomics, PacBio, Bruker, Bio-Rad, Agilent, Avantor and Thermo Fisher. Last week the worry was not only how much NIH money there would be, but also who would decide which grants get approved. A political veto over approvals would have added delay, and when grants are delayed, labs put off buying equipment. That worry is now off the table. Two caveats. First, this is secondhand. Second, dropping a plan is not new funding. The budget picture is where it was two weeks ago, when Thermo Fisher's CEO said NIH cuts had "ended up being a lot less severe" than feared. We heard nothing this week on NIH budget levels or on the overhead payments that grants cover for universities, known as "indirect costs." ### 2. The pharma tariff deadline passed, and the policy tape turned to European pricing. Last week, BioCentury's Washington reporter said the government was "on track to impose tariffs of up to 100% on patented pharmaceuticals" starting September 29, and that "nobody knows which products are going to be affected." That date has passed, and no podcast in the window discussed whether the tariff took effect, which products it covers, or how small biotechs are dealing with it. (MFN, or "most-favored nation," pricing ties US drug prices to what other rich countries pay.) The closest thing was an episode about drug pricing in Europe. On [Vital Health Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhNNrtVIWzhq1Qx0HftkUtmEuCY41-2FMW91o-2BiC0Dj5a-2FvZjLeXWVQpi6zS7Lc6-2F9CnIK5qY6JuiDlPjM6u1P3r83x-2BRNyuf7upexSY63d84fg-3D-3DZ_5o_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c9-2F1mWv-2FyJ2ejLST-2FRM6R5Ep801K-2B8NZRdJCIWofT8UgUmWL4BOaNeBqKFDUgO9a9uXy5BbGyNrzUV6qZh79nnLySzOMT41Q7fJVS-2FW1hgtCIfdRgiZl8RaXSiSu04vWew-3D-3D) ("VT Discusses MFN and Price Controls," October 2), two health-policy analysts, identified on the show as Ben and Harry, argued that price controls drain investment away. This is expert/pundit commentary. Their numbers: * *Europe's share of biotech startups fell from about 40% in 2000 to about 19% by 2020–21*, with the US making up the rest of their sample. * Europe's share of *late-stage venture funding fell to about 3%* of the total by 2019. "There just was not a late stage market in Europe." * The US accounts for "about where 85% of all their profits come from" for drug companies. So under MFN, companies may simply "withhold introducing drugs into new markets" where prices would be forced down, to protect US pricing. *Why it moves numbers:* The argument cuts both ways for tools. If MFN pushes drugmakers to protect US profits, more of the R&D and manufacturing spending stays in the US, which is good for US lab and bioprocessing demand. If MFN squeezes US drug prices, though, there is less money to fund biotech, and less money for the labs that buy tools. The policy podcasts this week addressed Europe, not the open question for our group: what the September 29 tariff actually did. Expect that to come up on Q3 earnings calls. ### 3. China's drug-discovery boom: two more podcasts, same story, bigger numbers. Last week Ginkgo's CEO said China went from roughly zero to 48% ($130 billion) of licensed or acquired new drug candidates in five years. This week, two separate podcasts backed him up. On [Sinica Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxGJD1jXffRNGQDhElh-2BF0ZW6gzXEtwHJFr0AFJW8OqUgSiiOvVwIOW-2BSRqgaCoyCP-2B9OKjCjetkEJIWABuXyR2QHGAIRDW1w0F1ytoBbU0g-3D-3D8rR7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c90bqbFa5piO-2BtXCc4tGEgKDwW0rd0Zh5vDeTS-2BcotWDvxnHyT7YEXoW9Z-2BrDcXXAcmJcjJND2WMRgCu-2BjRjSptpfUrj07U3x1Vwkdw-2FXlx1EE4PIbQ1Hk3awp1Wl3mTzA-3D-3D) ("From Barefoot Doctors to Biologics: Dr. Ruby Wang on China's Healthcare Revolution," September 29), host Kaiser laid out the scale: "Last year, Chinese companies signed something like 186 out-licensing deals with a disclosed value of around $137 billion. That is roughly half of all out-licensing value globally and close to 10 times what it was in 2021." (Out-licensing is when a company sells another company the rights to develop or sell its drug.) His guest, *Dr. Ruby Wang*, an NHS doctor, former UK government health lead in Beijing and now a China health-strategy consultant (an expert, not an operator), added that China's share of out-licensing deals worth more than $50 million went "from 5% to 50% in the first half of 2026." She said China is strongest in cancer drugs, including antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs, antibodies that carry a toxic payload to cancer cells) and *cell therapies*, and in GLP-1 obesity drugs. It is slower in immunology. She credited the speed to scale, Western-trained scientists coming home ("Hai Gui"), and the factories Western drugmakers built in China, which "allow[ed] Chinese companies to learn at first as copycats." She was clear that China's AI drug discovery is "not doing it better so far." The host offered a counterweight: China still had only "about 4.8% of the global biotech market" in 2024, against "like 35% for the United States." He then asked her about the BIOSECURE Act, the US law aimed at named Chinese biotech suppliers. Her answer is not in the excerpt we had, so we can't report it. The sharper view came from an operator. On [Disruptors](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOghI5fgaitIx5R7w55aTqGFVv8VZrT5vUANxFbK-2FfDlTnYO5R7Dh5tr2ph87o7SswiTJQXG1xEmMKjFimRjzo3SPGPMBtwbNAQ01iMO6OcPnQ-3D-3DISNO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2cx7N2ht6a9rDm3lg5Hbvd8PyePvF9buLrnkoeKYm0tmA7G3sDGK-2FzGPK9Zl1VnUvSPh-2BUpqKWLZqXzR2M-2Bkxpat9-2BMJo818CgIZj7ZSZzo0VPzsp5OmeCHH8eF8NiF7DPw-3D-3D) ("Canada's Biotech Challenge," September 29), an RBC podcast, *Clarissa Desjardins, CEO of Congruence Therapeutics* (a Canadian drug developer, and previously founder of Clementia, sold for $1.3 billion), described what China is doing to her own fundraising: "VCs are going to fund our company, Congruence, and they're going to wait five to seven years to see if we get a signal in the clinic. Whereas they could buy this clinic-ready proven compound for a fraction of what they would have to invest in Congruence." She described Chinese labs as "fully funded labs operating 24-7... industrializing this drug discovery process," and was blunt about the result: "We may have lost the race already on the so-called Me Too small molecule drugs or the Me Too antibodies." (A "me too" drug works the same way as one already on the market.) Her remaining hope is that China is not yet "on the bleeding edge" of AI or new drug types, "but they certainly will" be. Host John Stackhouse said he had "seen numbers that suggest like two thirds now of discoveries is coming out of China." That is the host's figure, and he offered no source. On [Biotech Hangout](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3VQn-2BWlVmQjButc-2FAj1aUqF1mMy93zy-2FV23H5oT7RfMet4E2LjC47kl-2FEVSUKUxm6n-2FssxNj4h-2Ff57GQbxn4AeWb9kEWDPED0CQAyb6CsIg-3D-3D6yoH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c6cRmqn3aAki2q6iasG0rl5USo3C4xjRg5lcckUJXuv5i6wxNr85T-2BYW6pv1UVFdhvFi8xFb-2FLPErPAcRyYGFivToovqUtg8RXgfz186fzpDf7r-2FgMJyhM64he6yLsAsPQ-3D-3D) ("Episode 198 - October 2, 2026"), the hosts listed Novo's new partnership with a Chinese biotech among the week's deals, more evidence of the same trend. *Why it moves numbers:* This is now the most consistent theme in the newsletter, three weeks running. For Western tool makers it is a real fork in the road. *The good version:* Chinese drug developers are booming, they run labs around the clock, and they need instruments, reagents and bioprocessing equipment. If Thermo Fisher, Danaher, Agilent, Waters and Mettler-Toledo win that business, China becomes a growth engine. *The bad version:* early-stage drug work that used to happen in US and European labs, funded by US venture capital, moves to China. Desjardins says venture investors are already choosing cheap Chinese compounds over funding Western start-ups. That hits US start-up and academic demand, the core market for 10x Genomics, PacBio, Bio-Rad and Bruker, and Western suppliers then have to fight local Chinese rivals for the work that moved. For the second week running, no Western tools executive has said which version is happening. ### 4. Biotech funding: the headline numbers are strong, but investors are hurting. Biotech funding feeds tools demand with a lag. When biotechs raise money, they spend it on labs and drug production a few quarters later. Two podcasts gave us this week's read. On [Biotech Hangout](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3VQn-2BWlVmQjButc-2FAj1aUqF1mMy93zy-2FV23H5oT7RfMet4E2LjC47kl-2FEVSUKUxm6n-2FssxNj4h-2Ff57GQbxn4AeWb9kEWDPED0CQAyb6CsIg-3D-3Ds8r9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2cwwuaXb-2F9QGmqNAz5m-2FG5C-2FnHl4RoRS91n13OEMyaFQ8XrF34eXp-2F-2BXDgo4tcG-2BahT4HvELkvx6jhU-2F3XjHLghTYc3Ot-2Fzcf4JEd6yeigFjkNnTv6hwiDA7Q3VY-2BET07zQ-3D-3D) ("Episode 198 - October 2, 2026"), a panel of biotech analysts and investors (Greg Sivanovich, Sam Fazeli of Bloomberg Intelligence, Eric Schmidt and Brian Skorney) took stock of the first nine months. This is investor and analyst commentary: * *XBI up 27% this year*, versus 7% for the broader healthcare fund (XLV), 13% for the S&P 500 and 17% for the Nasdaq. * But the XBI peaked at *$169 in late August and is down about 9%* since then. It was "essentially flat in Q3." * *IPOs:* "by my unofficial count, I think we are at 23 biotechs that have made their debut this year," with T-Rex Bio, Iambic Therapeutics and City Therapeutics coming. Sivanovich expects "the 30 plus range." He called 2026 "a banner year for reverse mergers," where a private company goes public by merging into an existing listed one. * *The catch:* Schmidt said the stocks holding the index up are the ones specialist funds don't own or are betting against, such as Moderna, Iovance and Summit, "and meanwhile, the companies that everyone owns are just getting hammered." His summary: "man, really tough last six months for many clients." * *Oura* pulled its planned IPO of more than $2 billion. Schmidt said a banker on the deal sees no read-through to biotech: there was "a deal to be had just at a slightly lower price." * *Deals:* AstraZeneca is putting *$2 billion* into Summit at a premium and will own 10%, only months after Summit "tried to raise about $500 million in the public markets... and they kind of came up short." Schmidt called it "a bit of a disconnect between what a strategic is willing to pay and what an investor is willing to pay." Regeneron and Sanofi also announced a new collaboration. On the [Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjzf0nYsRgyKRtjjAQPO2kU6nxvOR2wlQ3gkCx7wHM2T5vOFEbWaRzUn2kkJqAY-2BRSkfgIFx6TBJW8N4Ym0ArfvcUKbekjegY0kZgSPm-2F-2BK8A-3D-3DB5Zj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c6OJnisIMTV9WRw1TJWUCRGxThT78FnCp8mO82zBA2IGg-2BwtLqMhmwE77Ri-2F3YRQMkbcyntwze-2B7G0T-2FaXx7vnLe9O-2B7X2AKWaSg6hIFPtO3nLVqmroDv2BPEB6DE-2F49LA-3D-3D) ("Biotech Growth, Capital and M&A with Dr. Howard Berman of ReAlta Life Sciences 10-1-26," October 1), *Dr. Howard Berman, CEO and chairman of ReAlta Life Sciences* (an operator at a private drug developer), was upbeat: "You have seen recently this year the M&A increasing dramatically, and I don't think that's going to slow down. And I think with the amount of cash that pharma has, they need to use it and spend it." On [Business Of Biotech](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjyGEItsgUwxOGNhUhSFhXOUEjiuUyUyWH8pQ1M1z7kXXwFWHSGl0h6noWD0DKWLnw0nf4W2gfYFkTjMSe3jNI05rw5z5Sw23Jel8PFWy3gJg-3D-3DQUsR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c1uoVLDBAvEW1sUs-2BIUtsrc5MLTAE54QvYM6ziqlOBp460OA8oUIU-2FmjiXMTJe6kLE6XgdE52jO3kkno6A4N28SB9C-2FTFO4-2FIfRrugv3zg6Ke8voqSjIhJbDbQk0-2FHglvw-3D-3D) ("Growing And Scaling A Radiopharmaceuticals Company With AdvanCell's Philina Lee, Ph.D.," September 28), *Philina Lee, CEO of AdvanCell* (an operator), talked about an oversubscribed Series D. Host Ben Comer put it at $350 million; Lee herself said "we raised $315 million." She said investors wanted "later stage assets and or de-risked assets." The part most relevant to us was manufacturing: AdvanCell makes every clinical dose in-house and is planning "a network of U.S. manufacturing sites with approximately five sites across the U.S." to reach "over 95% of metastatic prostate cancer patients." *Why it moves numbers:* Funding is still flowing. IPOs are ahead of plan and big drugmakers are writing large checks. That supports biotech lab and outsourcing demand into 2027. The warning sign is who is getting the money. Lee says investors want later-stage, lower-risk programs, and the Summit deal shows big companies paying more than public investors will. Late-stage companies spend more on drug manufacturing than on early research. That is good for bioprocessing suppliers and CDMOs (contract manufacturers that make drugs for other companies), and less helpful for the discovery-lab tools that early-stage start-ups buy. ### 5. A bioprocessing veteran on how new manufacturing technology actually gets adopted. There was one episode squarely about bioprocessing, though it is about the industry's history rather than this quarter's orders. On [Smart Biotech Scientist](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhUtMFWa9XiWNMTgqczsJ9XryloHY5ibsIg-2BIkaXPZOOL2KZn9Qo1EjNr6-2BQ0M1Z5G07TdUN-2FeYCFBifFlEkifA1wyyk-2FTE4MfBjeNc3tZDJg-3D-3DETeB_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2cxZr8NbnrIGHN-2Fne4uolmdokl2F2qAXu3yTXY8b8OklcqjuZfA-2BEZ5CE8L9QtwpsGzEEf-2BxrMNUbmaik7rm7YqRey0-2FyloR-2Bn9GMzz0bokYeq-2Fd86N431X1QgAx5XaHEJA-3D-3D) ("291: The Fool's Game That Became Standard Practice: Perfusion, the ATF, and What Changed with John Bonham-Carter - Part 1," September 29), *John Bonham-Carter* spoke with host David Brühlmann. He commercialized the ATF system, sold Refine Technology to *Repligen* in 2014, and later sold the cell-therapy bioreactor company Erbi to *Merck Millipore*. He is a seasoned industry operator, though not currently at a coverage company. Some background. "Perfusion" means continuously feeding cells and removing waste, so a bioreactor produces far more drug from the same space. Bonham-Carter said that 10 to 15 years ago, people told him "That's a fool's game. There's no future in that." Now, "almost everyone runs some kind of perfusion device," and "Sartorius, their whole marketing campaign upstream is based on our original idea." Points worth noting for the group: * *Why companies adopt it depends on their plants.* Genentech said it would never use perfusion because "we've got these huge reactors. Costs are really low," in plants that were already paid for. Amgen, building new, asked whether it could spend "three, four hundred million" instead of "a billion or two billion dollars on a facility" for the same output. He said Lonza "is in the camp of Genentech." * *The numbers:* Sanofi got "a hundredfold, more or less, ballpark increase in productivity" from perfusion. Intensifying the "seed train" step (the stage that grows up cells before the main production run) gave existing processes "30% extra throughput for no real change in a qualified process." * *Repligen's scale then:* when it bought Refine in 2014, Repligen "had like 60, 70 people" and was "making protein A for GE and others." (Protein A is the resin used to purify antibody drugs.) * *Cell therapy:* he noted in passing that "cell therapy became big and then it became much significantly less attractive." That fits the lack of cell and gene therapy demand signals we have seen for weeks. *Why it moves numbers:* This is a useful frame for the reshoring story. If drugmakers build new US plants because of tariffs and onshoring deals, Bonham-Carter's history suggests new plants are where intensified, continuous and single-use processes get adopted, because nobody is protecting an old, paid-for stainless-steel plant. That favors Sartorius, Repligen (filtration and perfusion) and Danaher's Cytiva, which sell exactly that equipment. The flip side: if each plant makes more drug, companies may build smaller plants, and that could mean fewer large equipment orders. Nobody on this episode spoke to current orders. --- ## The debate *The bull (bioprocessing recovery / sequencing and multi-omics re-acceleration).* The bull case had a better week than last week, because one of last week's two new fears went away. The NIH grant-veto order has reportedly been dropped. Biotech funding is clearly open: XBI up 27% this year, about 23 IPOs with 30-plus expected, a banner year for reverse mergers, AstraZeneca's $2 billion in Summit, and a CEO saying pharma M&A has "increased dramatically" and won't slow down. Investors want late-stage programs, and late-stage programs mean manufacturing, which helps bioprocessing suppliers and CDMOs. The China boom, at about $137 billion of out-licensing and around-the-clock labs, is a huge pool of lab spending if Western suppliers win it. And Thermo Fisher's guidance from two weeks ago (4% growth in the second half of 2026, 7% by 2028) still stands, with nothing contradicting it. *The bear (China / academic / tariff / lumpy-capex).* (1) *China is taking the early-stage work.* This week an operator, not a pundit, said venture capital is choosing cheap Chinese compounds over funding Western start-ups, and that the West "may have lost the race already" on me-too drugs. That is a direct threat to US start-up and academic lab demand. (2) *The tariff picture is unclear.* The September 29 deadline passed with no podcast account of how it played out. Uncertainty is itself a reason for small biotechs to hold off on spending. (3) *Funding is going to fewer, later-stage companies.* The specialist funds that back early-stage biotech had a "really tough last six months," and the XBI is down about 9% from its peak. (4) *Still no order data.* For a second week, no company that reports bioprocessing orders said anything. Book-to-bill (new orders divided by shipments; above 1 means the order book is growing) is still the missing number. *Our read.* This week leans *neutral to slightly positive*, a small step back from last week's slightly bearish tilt. The NIH reversal removes a real risk, and funding data is healthy. But nothing this week came from our companies, and the China evidence keeps getting stronger. We would not change a view on this week's podcasts. The real test is Q3 results from mid-to-late October, and three things to listen for on those calls: bioprocessing orders, how the September 29 tariff is affecting biotech customers, and whether Western suppliers are winning business from China's drug-discovery boom. --- ## Stocks in play No coverage-company executive was on a podcast this week. Three companies were named in passing: *Repligen* and *Sartorius* (by John Bonham-Carter, on perfusion history) and *Danaher* (on [David Senra's podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhoEs7zMF3kmjiE0K7zmtTh5eMA4SOvjWfzsEOhULXkWIEhjRo4HUjeXXBWeCNoErw13l9BeR-2BnPsKkm4vuSSCe68nLvvIo-2FhkuFyeZfPj5jg-3D-3DwVSm_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c7w8Sn-2BCVO1U8EcPLevPSCf3TpIcTJjR-2FqE6zEisZrYabI1jTewNgiJCl-2FxSXopcxh2wi-2FJN8ZeuSwOdxUAVK-2BKnnnsSY95iKUd9w2UAAG6e0aLEuDlWpnUYahiXI9Xh1Q-3D-3D), by Long Lake's Alexander Taubman, who cited Danaher as "a big inspiration" for its motto "common sense rigorously applied," not as a business update). *Thermo Fisher* came up as the 2019 buyer of the gene-therapy manufacturer Brammer Bio for $1.7 billion, on a rerun of an older episode. Everything else below is read-through, labeled as such. | Ticker | This week's signal | Bull case | Bear case | Next catalyst | |---|---|---|---|---| | Thermo Fisher (TMO) | Named only as Brammer Bio's 2019 buyer ($1.7B), on a rerun episode. No operator comment. | NIH veto risk removed; biotech funding healthy; biggest beneficiary if China lab spending goes to Western suppliers. Guidance from Sept 20 still stands. | China shifting early-stage work away from US labs; tariff impact on small biotech customers unknown. | Q3 results (late Oct). | | Danaher (DHR) | Name-check only (Senra podcast: "common sense rigorously applied"). Read-through: perfusion and intensified processes favored in new plants (Cytiva). | New US plants built for intensified processing; late-stage funding means manufacturing demand. | No order data; fewer giant plants may mean smaller equipment orders. | Q3 results; bioprocessing book-to-bill. | | Sartorius (SRT GR) | Named by Bonham-Carter: Sartorius's "whole marketing campaign upstream" is built on process intensification. | Leader in the equipment new, intensified plants want. | No order data; European base, so FX and tariff complexity. | Q3 update (Oct). | | Repligen (RGEN) | Named by Bonham-Carter as the 2014 buyer of Refine (ATF perfusion); "60, 70 people" back then. | ATF/perfusion and filtration are tied directly to process intensification. | Order recovery still unconfirmed by any operator; cell and gene therapy has become "significantly less attractive," per Bonham-Carter. | Q3 results. | | Illumina (ILMN) | No coverage. Read-through: NIH veto risk removed. | Academic demand loses one overhang. | China shifting drug discovery; no read on competition from Element, Ultima, MGI or PacBio. | Q3 results. | | 10x Genomics (TXG), PacBio (PACB) | No coverage. Read-through: NIH relief, but an operator says VCs prefer cheap Chinese compounds over Western start-ups. | Academic grant approvals not politicized. | US start-up and academic demand at structural risk from the China shift. | Q3 results. | | Bruker (BRKR), Bio-Rad (BIO), Revvity (RVTY) | No coverage. NIH read-through. | Academic overhang eased. | No budget increase; no operator comment. | Q3 results. | | Agilent (A), Waters (WAT), Mettler-Toledo (MTD) | No coverage. China read-through: Chinese labs "operating 24-7." | A huge Chinese lab build-out to sell into. | Local Chinese rivals; Western share unknown. | Q3 results. | | Avantor (AVTR) | No coverage. | Broad lab and bioproduction consumables; NIH relief. | Academic exposure; no order read. | Q3 results. | | Maravai (MRVI) | No coverage. Indirect: cell therapy "significantly less attractive" (Bonham-Carter); China strong in cell therapies (Wang). | Chinese cell therapy activity. | No operator read on CGT reagent volumes for weeks. | Q3 results. | | Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) (adjacent, not core) | Investor/analyst panel: AstraZeneca investing $2B at a premium for 10%. | Funded through key trial readouts. | Harmony 3 readout timing unclear; public investors balked at a $500M raise. | Harmony 3 data (late 2026 or early 2027). | *Also discussed but private or not investable here: ReAlta Life Sciences, AdvanCell, Congruence Therapeutics, Brammer Bio (now Thermo Fisher), Aranta (sold last year, per the host).* --- ## Read-throughs * *Bioprocessing peers (Sartorius, Repligen, Avantor, Maravai, Danaher/Cytiva).* No order data for a second straight week. The only bioprocessing-specific content was historical: Bonham-Carter's account of perfusion going from "a fool's game" to standard practice. The useful takeaway is about plant economics. Companies with paid-off stainless-steel plants (his examples: Genentech, Lonza) have less reason to adopt new processes. Companies building new plants (Amgen, and later Novartis with what he called "the largest single-use continuous facility in the world") do. If tariffs and onshoring deals lead to new US plants, the content per plant leans toward intensified and single-use equipment, which is Sartorius's and Repligen's home turf. Bonham-Carter gave no view on current demand. * *Sequencing (Illumina, PacBio, 10x).* Nothing on the competitive fight this week. The NIH reversal is the one positive; the China evidence is the main concern. It has now been two weeks without a sequencing executive on the record. * *CDMOs and outsourcing.* The one CDMO episode was a rerun. On [Molecule to Market: Inside the outsourcing space](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh35hRDVjj9RZADngCN6rmvt9RoIhtZREa6use6YW54wZRxMDJyMREdgg1Uwy3r51qk6JLTguiwhN1hI77j0SnB2GFPavDmU4SLnfPJxJ0kFQ-3D-3DesZv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c95Exo4t2qZERtJtmLViIqFcQ2GJUnXytXqmaohdw4Cr-2FUp5xQINljsb25DbeYALM6T7ACgWJkPWXPQVSwRZf-2BA0-2BUCy38xSdqUFgKQ9HsOw0K1Xfd0YDMmRFo9Dpw471g-3D-3D) ("M2M ENCORE: Founding and Selling Three Bio CDMOs," October 2), a serial CDMO founder identified as Mark (an operator) told the Brammer Bio story. Before its *$1.7 billion* sale to Thermo Fisher in 2019, Brammer was supporting "a third of the... whole sector's late stage pipeline" in gene therapy. It went "from a hundred people to over 600" in three years, invested "$200 million in facilities," and needed $200 million more. It funded growth partly through "clients [who] were willing to pay deposits in order to secure capacity." He also explained why his microbiome CDMO, Aranta, struggled: during COVID, "about half" of clients "were looking for funding... if they didn't get funding, they couldn't spend money with us." This is old news, not new data. Still, it is a clear operator explanation of the link between biotech funding and CDMO and consumables demand, and it is why this week's healthy IPO count matters. AdvanCell's plan for about five US manufacturing sites is a small, concrete example of new US drug-production capacity, though in radiopharmaceuticals, which use little of the typical biologics equipment. * *Cell and gene therapy (CGT) demand.* Still no operator read on reagent or viral-vector volumes. The two passing data points pull in opposite directions: Bonham-Carter said cell therapy has become "significantly less attractive," while Wang listed cell therapies among China's strongest areas. * *Academic / NIH funding.* This is the clearest change from last week: the grant-veto executive order has reportedly been dropped (Paging America, relaying Politico). It matters for every academic-exposed name. But it restores the status quo; it does not add money. We heard nothing on NIH budget levels, indirect costs or grant timing. A university spin-out on [Lab Rats to Unicorns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi7KHWdi9aKpZ-2F0o7p6cHU6jAtnHH9S5jBNilfK-2Ft0qdNP8taSIvv1U7tD-2Ff-2FcDEVqWcbXsPNdNDZ3AGYNGEX4cv89hce1QVSIiCWdmBxQ7vg-3D-3D_gVU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8kDnDhPZ8bML1VA12NAa28VD8xQ0V1Q9rTYrIWCU2c7seakX-2Fx-2Bs5HNVlE6yEnvLbLnu9SY2m5X9CddASX-2B5X4hVirdO2TuFmiPfgGEeE8xrKP5d4N-2F-2BKXhc9NDNw2gevZj5NetM3njXInwVXj5wkAZeST27dlQrR7mSvpionLg-3D-3D) ("Disarming Staph with Dominique Missiakas & Vilasack Thammavongsa_e.093," September 30) described early SBIR grants and NIH support as "one of the breakthroughs that really validated us." (SBIR grants are federal small-business research grants.) It is a reminder of how much early-stage biotech depends on the NIH, but it is not a funding data point. * *China-exposed instrument names (Thermo Fisher, Danaher, Agilent, Bruker, Mettler-Toledo, Waters).* The demand story is now well documented: about $137 billion of out-licensing deals last year, a share of $50-million-plus deals that went from 5% to 50%, labs running "24-7," and Western pharma "all buying from China." What's missing, for a third week, is any Western supplier telling us its share of that spending. Wang also gave a reason to think Western companies are partly responsible for building their own competition: their Chinese factories let local firms "learn at first as copycats." * *Biotech funding sentiment.* Positive on the numbers, strained underneath. There are 23 IPOs and counting, $2 billion from AstraZeneca to Summit, oversubscribed rounds like AdvanCell's, and a CEO calling M&A "increasing dramatically." Against that, the specialist funds had a "really tough last six months," the XBI is about 9% off its peak, and host Greg Sivanovich flagged macro risks including "rising interest rates" and "rising energy prices." That contrasts with last week, when panelists described a "chill" in appetite for big deals after Novartis's Avidity setback. This week's AstraZeneca–Summit and Regeneron–Sanofi deals suggest that chill is lifting. * *FX and tariffs.* No coverage of currency. On tariffs, see item 2: no podcast account yet of the September 29 start. --- ## What changed vs last week *Last week (September 27) leaned slightly bearish on policy news and operator silence. This week leans neutral to slightly positive: one bear point went away and the funding data was healthy. But the companies stayed off the tape and the China evidence kept building.* Specifically: 1. *NIH: last week's new risk has reportedly been removed.* Last week a podcast relayed reports of a draft executive order that would "create a new external committee with the power to veto awards" at the NIH. This week the same show relayed Politico's report that the White House "has dropped" the plan after Senator Collins objected. This is the most direct reversal from last week. Both reports came from the same partisan source, so treat it as likely but unconfirmed. 2. *Tariffs: from "watch Tuesday" to an open question.* Last week we said to watch September 29, when a tariff of up to 100% on patented drugs was due. No podcast this week said what happened, so whether it took effect, was delayed, or how the exemptions were defined remains unanswered until Q3 calls. 3. *China: from one operator's number to a consensus.* Last week the 48% / $130 billion figure came from Ginkgo's CEO. This week Sinica independently put it at about $137 billion, roughly half of the global total, and a second operator (Congruence's Desjardins) described the effect on her own fundraising. The bear side of the China debate got stronger. The bull side, Western suppliers winning Chinese lab spending, still has no evidence either way. 4. *Biotech M&A: from "chill" to "increasing dramatically."* Last week panelists worried that Novartis's setback was "putting a chill" on large deals. This week brought AstraZeneca–Summit ($2 billion) and Regeneron–Sanofi, and a biotech CEO who expects M&A not to slow. The XBI moved from "up about 30%" last week to 27% this week, as reported on the same show. 5. *Operators: still off the tape.* No coverage-company executive appeared last week or this week, two straight quiet weeks since Thermo Fisher's CEO and Illumina's chief medical officer spoke on September 20. *What did NOT change, and it is still the crux:* no bioprocessing book-to-bill from any listed supplier, no read on the sequencing competition, no FX read, no read on instrument versus consumables mix, no company guidance, and no operator comment on cell and gene therapy reagent volumes. Next up: Q3 results from mid-to-late October, which should finally put numbers on bioprocessing orders and the tariff. --- ## Get the full transcripts on Matterfact This briefing was produced with Matterfact, which indexes the complete, full-text transcripts of 120M+ podcast episodes alongside SEC filings, earnings calls, and financial datasets. 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