# Atlassian Rejects the SaaSpocalypse as Anthropic's Leaked Filing Shows an $8 Billion Loss - Weekly SaaS / Software Podcast Recap - Week of October 4, 2026

> Weekly SaaS / Software Podcast Recap for the week of October 4, 2026. Podcast synthesis on Atlassian's CEO calling the SaaSpocalypse off on Decoder, Anthropic's leaked draft IPO filing ($4.6 billion of 2025 revenue, an operating loss above $8 billion, $518 billion of compute commitments), Meta hiring MongoDB's CEO, token budgets replacing seats at Zuora while Pegasystems refuses per-token pricing, Harvey's negative gross margin, Steve Eisman's private-equity software debt warning, and the cybersecurity rally in CrowdStrike, Palo Alto and Okta.

## Weekly SaaS / Software Podcast Recap

### Week of October 4, 2026: Atlassian Rejects the SaaSpocalypse as Anthropic's Leaked Filing Shows an $8 Billion Loss

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On Monday, Atlassian's CEO went on Decoder and was asked whether Claude will eventually just run your company for you, making tools like Jira pointless.

He didn't think much of the idea:

*"I think if a frontier model is capable of coming and running your entire business for you, even assume four or five years worth of increase, you have a relatively simple business."* (Atlassian CEO, [Decoder with Nilay Patel, "The SaaSpocalypse that wasn't, with Atlassian's CEO" (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjTxriL1p3as3jrYuPv31ew8Ow5Ii0w4cdAmgS-2F82MpHx4vtNggZ-2FETlUGaqmG-2Bt5wkYrJJZBxePfskuzYuU4eugApSFAU4qWM5u1zZOBJcg-3D-3DHH5q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfQKhGM5anuB8Xk-2BuFbAXes80gjpbKtrzkOn9CZ6KBlwv8NzpIzTw5Lrky-2FTy-2FybjbwqErETHDG2b8Aqtcw4acgm9ew26oKkh-2F04dHeZckq0qM2Tv7l6MGFBFAp2tSt-2BoYQ-3D-3D))

When Nilay Patel pushed him on the pitch that an AI "orchestration layer" will finally tie every enterprise app together, he called it "three parts snake oil, two parts bullshit."

A day later, the software world got something it had been waiting months for: a look at the books of an AI lab. Reuters reported on Anthropic's draft IPO filing. It showed *$4.6 billion of 2025 revenue*, an *operating loss of more than $8 billion*, a target valuation of around *$2 trillion*, and *$518 billion* in future computing commitments. Almost every business podcast spent the week arguing over it.

Then, in a twist that one show summed up as "Mongo Got Zucked," Meta hired MongoDB's CEO the day before MongoDB's investor meeting. The stock fell as much as 26%.

So this week the question flipped. Last week, people were asking whether AI would kill software companies. This week, the AI labs' own numbers came out, and a fair number of guests began to ask the reverse: *are the AI labs starting to look like the risky software business?*

## Top of mind

* *The Anthropic numbers took over the week.* At least 20 podcasts covered the leaked filing. The main worries were losses, customer concentration (two customers made up about a quarter of revenue) and the $518 billion in spending commitments. Steve Eisman said he has "zero" interest in buying it at $2 trillion.
* *SaaS CEOs are pushing back hard.* Atlassian ("the SaaSpocalypse that wasn't"), Sitecore and Salesforce executives all argued that AI agents run on top of business software rather than replacing it. Even Manny Medina, who once "flew a flame around San Francisco and said SaaS is dead," now says SaaS companies will be "the primary beneficiaries" of agents.
* *Pricing is moving from seats to tokens, and finance chiefs are struggling to manage it.* Zuora now gives every employee a personal "token budget." Pegasystems' CFO says Pega deliberately chose *not* to charge customers per token, and compared "token maxing" to seeing which house on the street can use the most electricity.
* *AI apps have a profit problem.* Topline reported that Harvey's gross margin went from about +50% to *−50%* as agent usage took off. Guests argued that software's traditional 75–85% gross margins are gone for AI-native companies.
* *Private equity's software bets are in trouble.* Steve Eisman went through five big software buyouts that were roughly half funded with debt, and argued that many PE software investments "are going to zero" when that debt has to be refinanced in 2027.
* *Cybersecurity is still the favorite software trade.* The Justice Department closed its CrowdStrike investigation, and Jim Cramer named CrowdStrike, Palo Alto and Okta "the stocks to buy." CrowdStrike and Palo Alto both hit new highs on Friday. One IBD guest warned these stocks are "priced for perfection."
* *The trade may be turning.* Baron Capital's Michael Baron said the performance gap between "AI winners" and "AI losers" widened to 47.5 points in the first half of 2026, then started to reverse over the last two months, as investors went back into beaten-up software names like Shopify and Guidewire.

---

## 1. Dominant Themes

### Theme 1: The Anthropic filing, and what it means for software

The biggest story of the week wasn't a software company. It was an AI lab finally showing its numbers. That matters for software investors because Anthropic and OpenAI are the companies that are supposedly going to make business software obsolete. Their numbers are also a test of whether the AI build-out pays for itself.

*What was reported* (from Reuters' review of the draft prospectus, repeated across many podcasts):

* *2025 revenue of about $4.6 billion*, up about 12 times from 2024.
* *Operating loss of more than $8 billion.* The headline *net loss of about $42 billion* includes roughly $34 billion of non-cash accounting charges tied to financing instruments.
* *About $7.33 billion* spent on computing and infrastructure in 2025, three times the prior year ([The Canadian Investor (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjmXFyf95rCu-2Bg4Aj0mA10c-2Fh9oIrJ0eSKsrLO-2BRw7WIj1J1Gw8OMEKksVDWL0Qqz6rNnJIIK1GAqNZuAy-2BCiy5T-2FonKTFVYLDY3RNkgK6jFg-3D-3D4AZD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfe38vAX0OxAcD6xCR3XD8cN3c1loOQxl1oFF6Na2PDE2oT5V-2F7TlDzo8mlLVXQ2V80mHGVjLcyOJsde89SgPF2F9SZCIr5ixnj-2Bk7j8-2FZCLoJFmtrHubKXd-2BbkaCNJmvHQ-3D-3D)).
* *Two customers made up nearly 25% of revenue*, and the filing warns many top customers aren't locked into long-term contracts.
* *$518 billion in future computing commitments.* On Big Technology Podcast, the split was given as $111 billion to Alphabet, $110 billion to Amazon and $31.4 billion to Microsoft over a decade ([Big Technology Podcast, "Anthropic's IPO Leak, OpenAI's Dots vs. Meta's Muse" (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOivVD1HY35yQ8-2BlMq5fRQMFOnnNb5urVCwDQw7wHc5uWJ0XuJ5-2FINin1eGiZ06yqHCyFHLrokZ8M1TwcldgvtPNfWchiejyI9rDxO0kVQ8eMA-3D-3DqURR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBffD5UbFve0miLGgxgglpS-2F9uhh6-2F5i1HRUugKfuAJJ-2BPb0oFXSsdgq4tcaMjYvTXMHpH2DTIllhdJ7XXxjotdcfn7LCy-2ByGJ7ERFNBJFP2OiXHo3IPFoT64UtjKPtOdzsA-3D-3D)).
* A target valuation of around *$2 trillion*, with a possible listing in November.

*The bear view was loud.*

* *Patrick Boyle* did the simplest version of the math. At $2 trillion, Anthropic is valued at roughly 31 times its ~$65 billion annualized revenue. Even if you assume zero costs, zero taxes and zero R&D, and discount at the 5.23% Treasury rate, that revenue is worth only about $1.27 trillion. In other words, about three-quarters of the price depends on future growth ([Patrick Boyle On Finance, "Is Anthropic Worth Two Trillion Dollars?" (Sep 27)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjpQAbw3rfG2iqZJnEBheycbzs0jvIdTyXGiJpmtxG0gulOy8ntSjUvmocZZDfpG8E8lCF9uQhbRPnlqGLcXk1eL6Qw2SWAKSEVkTvRQB7XoA-3D-3D-OhR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBffsfSdtglLBOjmbLLkI7Ky42oJe59TY2Im5n1f2Z-2BGvN-2F2dQXlZCK5UD-2FRTjU4W5X0RAfNAsntX1-2BukzMg9DMkg3w-2B-2F4QntDDi-2BcMZanOYCEPbvnP62GLdrNozF6Trr2-2FQ-3D-3D)).
* *Paul Kedrosky* on Prof G Markets called parts of the presentation "finance theater." He argued that leaving training costs out of operating results to claim inference is profitable looks like WeWork's "community-adjusted" earnings ([Prof G Markets, "Anthropic's Financials Revealed, The Losses Are Stunning" (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiipZfTFnLJ3wFeA1sqRK94osmbeNHB9BASoCTWysbA5EgEghvDV-2BIQiFFSVnkRWKFWH6z2jwsLrxJOUNP2h68-2B8d3Un-2B91UQxW9NDy5Kt97A-3D-3DRxYC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfeSMGCiMWTUN5k4DRJZjOptNKbMZpQ8Mu8QOwLALmfc-2BGV36fPN52epT261iKgG8EMCLwckJrHQPiBoBPb0omQUwIt8sxuuWJbKOUAVL9-2F-2BLnYdBpnq9fYGvbxIxMc0PnA-3D-3D)).
* *Steve Eisman* had a theory about the timing. He thinks Anthropic may be going public now because the first half of 2026 "looks really good because of token maxing" (customers burning through as many AI tokens as possible), and that the third and fourth quarters may show a slowdown. "I think they needed to go public now" ([Prof G Markets, "Steve Eisman: One Company Could Break The AI Boom" (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOizlWTZG2GH4xeLzsPBFcnNdrhFYHdw8LxNhpgtteYqB04psg-2F2cTeKtY8y1XELaKjxJ-2BVgsq69smp5rXm2mnCf-2FA7VRhSIyWAtWgN1B7VESA-3D-3Dliqd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfcnE8V3-2F1QDbp4NaEFaSPs6CRe9edK-2FmypK9wMWC4W6n985OsqLY99KgSf7qhtH5JUitqDL-2BnSxXKOk3sdZNHBeUQbvsmFBFS5fE3R-2FApMUudsxlB8R15Y-2FDmKPumsI4Zg-3D-3D)).

*The counterpoint came from venture investors*, who mostly shrugged at the 2025 numbers. On 20VC, Rory O'Driscoll said the leak contained "not a single piece of useful" information beyond one fact:

*"The only interesting factoid in that was that two customers did 25% of the revenue, which means someone spent half a billion dollars on Anthropic last year, which is pretty impressive."* (Rory O'Driscoll, [20VC, "Instinct Raises $1B at $10B Valuation | … Meta Poaches MongoDB's CEO" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhGWUF48mFwpRHgL7FLqeVyb3CXk7TMDmmOoLxNz1ClPfXYkxuEq4Nl-2Fvac6EhIuBMjqF5LI5CiO2dhf-2BLdAuGi1QTzuZALbWasJdULZUtCiQ-3D-3DxyPl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfSs5BZK5TgUAZhA1YwtjFbznAAI9l6WqWPoiF2T71k5-2FdTOZ3fgRzBOfz8njDsjK7ir1wXtKt5sdFnRKNYr9TLuDFMSjIseW-2BglxLgSJIJDAjNS1bdDHdLValTGVRGfGtA-3D-3D))

His point is that the *third-quarter revenue figure is "90% of the data required"* to value the company, and there's "very nascent data" suggesting Anthropic's growth has "kind of flattened out" while OpenAI's has picked up.

That "flattening" was the part that should matter most to software investors. On More or Less, Sam Lessin described memes of "SaaS investors welcoming Anthropic to the no growth table." His concern was that as token prices fall, the lab's revenue "just kind of flatlines." Lessin said the core question is whether people "will sink infinite amounts of money into marginally better tokens" ([More or Less, "Meta Muse vs Instinct vs OpenAI Dots: Do AI Agents Have Any Moat?" (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2BC-2BfjtAHLHy-2FU-2BDn3g7m4dpUyIn7sg-2B0F8dzF8K1-2F7fVBf7n2wNxkdaGco83EhMuyUZZSsHbvguwUlqNhDQUcFQ5-2B0-2BOP2Abx2cO-2BCjB0kw-3D-3Dxzni_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfYUFgoriMlAyZ7WiwrxcIr50fNRBoFVVm5MxnbXdehTFSxMU5erRCY-2BDbbDAewW573FUCSauxzEXILbBjluyAb43vYpnbzLaooAHwlB3pwdtEQdL2jJKCkEf5-2BXlxb5a7Q-3D-3D)).

*Why it matters for software:* if frontier AI turns into a commodity and gets cheaper every month, the companies that own customers, workflows and data (the classic SaaS assets) look more valuable, not less. That is the "inverse SaaSpocalypse" argument in Theme 2.

On OpenAI, Sam Altman told Bloomberg the company is raising *$30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation*. He wouldn't confirm the reported ~$70 billion of annualized revenue, and he pushed off any IPO. He said OpenAI's new Dots agent is priced *higher* than competitors because of its capability and compute costs ([Bloomberg Talks, "OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Talks IPO Planning, DevDay" (Sep 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOghKeNJrq2r4OHkcl6Uv9K7aUJXk1k4lpOUdqPdSHN4nwbto-2Fz70NC07d-2FgD6NKG1ZWFeE6wQKv-2BlY-2FfNtYXO-2BtU2-2BDarohhHQPYT46-2B6W-2F-2FA-3D-3DDRCT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfSSC8bN-2BkoemVZivp0ALkZqO29wGmqQqWUUshRn3duUHZms-2BvMeWWwcOJWW-2FhcwJCWXITvqjQPiLwfbqBZ4hjM-2B7TnmEEPrrcjTi9dhx3ZQj1IWuTLmuDvqJ8xV-2BsmW7ag-3D-3D)).

### Theme 2: "The SaaSpocalypse that wasn't": software CEOs push back

After a year of hearing that AI agents will make business software obsolete, software executives used this week's podcasts to argue the opposite.

*Atlassian's CEO* gave the most detailed version on Decoder. His points:

* *Jira isn't where work happens. It's where work is tracked.* "Developers don't live in Jira. Marketers don't live in Jira." It's "a workflow engine" that lets a company "know what the fuck's going on." AI makes the steps faster, but the business still needs that visibility.
* *AI handles the easy 80%.* Using a sales "deal exception" as an example (a customer wants to pay in 45 days instead of 30), he said AI can approve the simple cases. The complicated ones still need "a human for intuition and judgment."
* *People still use the screen.* "More than 98% of people using our MCP server also use the user interface. And that is not changing." (MCP is the standard connector that lets AI agents like Claude talk to other software.)
* *More knowledge workers, not fewer.* He expects "more knowledge workers, more developers in five to 10 years time than today," because competition will raise the bar. He compared it to bank branches: everyone thought mobile banking would kill them, but over the last 10 years, branch counts have been rising, because the branches now do different, higher-value work.
* *The chatbot isn't the final interface.* "I think we learned this in 1970 with the CLI." (A CLI is a command line, the text-only way computers worked before graphical screens.)

[Decoder with Nilay Patel, "The SaaSpocalypse that wasn't, with Atlassian's CEO" (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhjTxriL1p3as3jrYuPv31ew8Ow5Ii0w4cdAmgS-2F82MpHx4vtNggZ-2FETlUGaqmG-2Bt5wkYrJJZBxePfskuzYuU4eugApSFAU4qWM5u1zZOBJcg-3D-3DsVJo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfcLR-2Ft33OYoF4Hg-2B1WjrfTGcNI8kG6FSgy6BRAzD-2BtWI2hZLa-2FzzojF3nqigyKU4zhjLthciq-2BfMmZS6sYDokuSpIkGn7xNJzrE9B-2FarTSN-2Bb8pNFx-2BDSK9NxVdyWZEY-2BA-3D-3D)

*The most surprising convert was Manny Medina*, founder of Outreach and now CEO of Paid:

*"I was the one who flew a flame around San Francisco and said SaaS is dead. So, like I used to think that SaaS is just going to take it lying down. It turns out they won't. They have a lot of knowledge. They have a lot of workflows embedded in their software already. So, they are the primary beneficiaries of building agents on top of their stack. And they just need to figure out how to capture value. And if they don't, somebody else will."* (Manny Medina, [Topline, "Turning AI Tokens Into ROI (That You Can Measure)" (Oct 4)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjRiYASKjesT2Ih3pNN5McRXBsQXx-2F1vBYbPlyJqZuhLZEusfUgWTNGgnS1YWYDGZ7-2B-2BIBZDa3u9Hh413VZTg6r48nuatj-2Fd7fbKukKOZae6w-3D-3Dorpl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfQi8KejXArjfzCkHuxiGz1AmMY8JGv5J9rBKTDDe-2Bali9F71vislPs9DSQQ7KiHEDMFeQfhFssn7BxtX-2Bj0qJWJdMjdFXNKWuEIusgMou7GUcH-2BwnDxj0bmO5XCU47OT2g-3D-3D))

He compared MCP to Salesforce's early API, which spawned a whole ecosystem of sales tools (including Outreach). "The same thing is happening with MCP."

*A16z's guests even coined a term for it.* On The a16z Show, the founder behind the new AI primitive "Jev" (a single-pass AI classifier that answers "what category is this?" rather than generating text) argued that "SaaS will be one of the largest winners of, like, the whole AI game." His reasoning: the boring, established SaaS companies are "the best positioned to know what workflows to automate." He called it "an inverse SaaSpocalypse." Another guest offered "Sassapalooza." The host's point was that a SaaS company's biggest investment is "getting to all the customers," so if AI makes the product much better, the incumbent already has the distribution ([The a16z Show, "AI Can Write Code. Why Isn't Software Better?" (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOioABMh6-2FNwRLrZEQV2XWXhGmqgfzZtbcPShDQolqD-2F7XA98x2eed-2BJZihaZMVNwAgjVMAOyHe02W-2FPSvziYcFSgjD-2BT89crMIBZv67v5lHKA-3D-3D3gjc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfe4uNC7CUCByvFCgNnWKixokqI-2B-2FC8kvKqy-2F4mAkXQS8gYaPpX1vuBzWV7n9Mz3JLIBV-2B4ZcFRuYmnmytrxIXcreN3nH-2FtsIRTGToax36c7vZaOUyY5UgiIEb1INGOv1UQ-3D-3D)).

The same episode had a quieter but sharp observation about AI coding. At Google, one guest said, the average code change is about *10 lines*, so AI coding tools are automating "something that's actually pretty minimal." Writing code faster doesn't make software better, and the code is "arguably getting worse just because, like, there's less oversight" and "often more insecure."

*Tim Guleri of Sierra Ventures* pushed back on the idea that every company will now build its own software with AI:

*"If you're the CIO of Delta, you better be an expert at logistics and flying and keeping airplanes on, you know, safe and flying. That's your job. Not building ERP software."* (Tim Guleri, [The Neon Show, "Which SaaS Companies Will Survive Anthropic and OpenAI?" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhbfiaYa6u5v5gXg-2FnJN-2B2ywvtzdjkQIbTMua3d58eRsy1uTdAzYb35VbpyZ1RBL2FaO1wW2jTuwMuqL8jYNY-2Fj4o6YAryLYydwp2YPCGlo5g-3D-3DdGmK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfa0-2FDnYAZGkA03Yz3GlM8m8DSDD2jmpvh9Eyw53tfzZuumt3A6VUph1-2FgwR99yd-2BUk4a28jwgkILOy94-2Buwtb12gJQkVgQ658U3k1urnEaS3js5Y-2FbI38gP1PZQstqMdSw-3D-3D))

He was clear that it won't work out for everyone. Companies that don't transform "just get wiped out." His example was Airtable, which he said "got bought for two X because, you know, they were going to get anthropic."

*Salesforce's angle was data.* Salesforce's chief data officer Michael Andrew said agents need about *10 times more data than humans* because they are "like newborn children" with no business context. Salesforce used its Data360 product to merge 266 million scattered customer profiles from 650 data streams into 141 million unique people ([Super Data Science, "Garbage In, Gospel Out: Agents Are Your New Customers" (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj8rvLe4p579bElXDpx6uqZR5qzgvLDwzJFp0h9gUtVqFJkYOckXY99TOVv2IMNlar4IbX8oTLrtc7F92x-2B-2B04pB4zSDqCFNMiPAN93fKqAww-3D-3DDwh5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfd-2BnG7-2FrN9zeczX3J4nWITQYYSGvFnLoJvY1mHs7xUycLmHVcT-2FlmGqGoGXaa-2BxtCAhjw66UNZZP-2BXwPGOieA-2FpVH1Ewo3FGx5H-2F0IjhHTms8oygHAO8uPc0lqvbfQxnTQ-3D-3D)).

### Theme 3: The token budget becomes a line item

Last week Microsoft started charging for part of Copilot by usage. This week, finance chiefs described what that change looks like from the buyer's side.

*Zuora's chief operating and financial officer, Todd McElhatton*, gave the clearest picture:

* Zuora's AI tools used to be priced per seat. "Everyone is moving away from those. We've got one that's got two years left on it. So we're kind of happy about that. But everything else is on a token."
* In the coming budget cycle, "you'll have a people budget and you'll have a token budget." McElhatton is "indifferent" between them: "if a leader tells me they can deliver better with more tokens than people, we'll do more tokens."
* *Every Zuora employee now has a personal token budget* sized to their role, with dashboards that show what each query costs.
* He compared it to ordering wine without prices: "I didn't realize that wasn't a $40 bottle of wine. That was a $400 bottle of wine."
* On the vendor side, he warned that adding AI features can turn "a product that had, you know, a nice 80, 85% gross margin" into one where "all of a sudden… I've tanked my margins."

[Run the Numbers, "Zuora's COFO On Going Private and Pricing AI | Todd McElhatton" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjV6MSz1MG8bu0W-2BWhSpVI9F-2FD2hi4d2ICfxdOYY0F5V7zfq1irf3ei3rp-2FNHTMyydMb-2F7VoCO-2F284tHMb2TFFNVPcppc-2Ftt4az3amRIKzIpQ-3D-3DWcTE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfYQ3qdSgFcL1d-2BaIbgN9YMHiOChXUwwsjs-2B-2FTvrXHh7vpZGvF7ds3UrrVVYRfqzUGaN5ssg7d2TXnBLrJScoVYCGDa1Y7QWOpgw-2BFgxUnvzZQfeAb6sEBC0qkM8X3Lg8BQ-3D-3D)

*Pegasystems took the opposite approach on purpose.* CFO Ken Stillwell explained why Pega does *not* charge customers per AI token. Pega assumed token costs wouldn't fall as fast as people hoped ("some of the frontier token costs are actually more now than what some of the earlier models were"). It also assumed customers would waste money using expensive models where a cheap one, or no AI at all, would do. So Pega absorbs the cost and steers customers to "the right model at the right time":

*"You don't want to have token maxing, you don't want to have token leaderboards. I mean, that's like, that would be the equivalent Jack of saying let's see which household in the neighborhood can use the most electricity in the summer."* (Ken Stillwell, [CFO Thought Leader, "Why Pegasystems Is Betting on Work, Not Tokens" (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiCkOvhHX6gBHz7S8m6qC9F1T1UrmVJ4tKoW-2Fca76tDDMBWvqan-2BY6Jv02oAptM-2F5wbic7jZ1bwQvf4d7GVrgIcNANthBke44SGSQqSy9gAIA-3D-3DmaJ-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfW34U8zd3CrFm-2BFkZ4HQucfLQYvuT23ZBDeavv9Hv4rGSHUXF2zVZj-2B9f6yww0ZcjIisG94XgdSWrcPmo-2Bl4LXmH1Md5adA-2FZq41XUo4X0-2FttcjEG345-2FxWbbY1p94D0kQ-3D-3D))

He also said plainly that "ROI has been elusive around AI" for most customers, because much of today's spending is "more trial and error." Pega's cloud gross margin is around 80%. It started below 30%, and he described the climb as "30 to 45 to 50 to 55."

*Medina's view of why seats are failing* was the most practical of the week. A vendor sells 100 seats. At renewal, procurement notices only 20 are heavily used and cuts the order to 50. "Raise your hand if you haven't had that problem." With usage pricing, "if you've sold 100 seats and only two were hyper users, you don't care," because you get paid for the value those two create. His company's pitch is turning what an agent did into "normal English that a CFO can read." The idea is to answer the question that, he says, nobody ever asked about seats: "what the fuck do you get for the hundred seats that you bought? Nobody knew."

### Theme 4: AI apps have a gross-margin problem

Gross margin is the share of each sales dollar left after paying the direct cost of delivering the product. Classic SaaS kept 75–85 cents. AI apps have to pay for computing power every time a customer uses them, so they keep much less.

On Topline, *Sam Jacobs* shared research from Iconiq showing scaling AI companies averaged about *41% gross margins in 2024, 45% in 2025 and a projected 52% in 2026*. Application-layer AI companies were lower still: 33%, 38% and 45%.

*The standout example was Harvey*, the AI legal startup. It began 2026 with gross margins around +50%. By June, as customers deployed agents that consume tokens on their behalf, the margin had fallen to *negative 50%*. "That means its cost to deliver $1 of revenue went from 50 cents to $1.50." AJ Bruno's reaction: "you're at negative 50% margins, you don't have a business."

Jacobs proposed a rule of thumb:

* Growing *above 200%*: bad margins are fine for a while, if there's a path to fixing them.
* Growing *100–200%*: margins need to be clearly improving.
* Growing *below 50%*: margins need to be good.

*Asad Zaman* argued that the usual fix (switching to cheaper open-source models) doesn't work, because customers in banks, PE firms and law firms want the best model. He compared it to going "from hiring people only from Harvard to then going and hiring people from the worst university you can find." That leaves app companies "completely at the behest of these model companies," and "at scale, this is a roller coaster."

The same episode put a number on how bad the market for older SaaS companies has become. Bruno said QuotaPath raised a Series B at *100 times revenue in 2021*. Today, SaaS multiples are "1X or less than 1X," and "if I wanted to go sell Quotapath today, I really couldn't find the buyer." He described a CEO running a healthy $50–100 million revenue business who also couldn't find a buyer ([Topline, "If the AI Money Dries Up, Which Companies Burn?" (Sep 27)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgfFPE1jPSB6HjHb-2Fkp3dSVXrpDV3fwshUfKp65ACqnheFWPSPEbbXsOQi0BPn5bDQH-2Bo-2F2m9B12I5tC7L2LNRhETQ3gg-2BGuQFy6lXUsJvmxA-3D-3D1i8z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfY9lE9N4rQoWVpxkw6uvplUYInI-2FjvN-2FoVL9A5lhna-2FHtC1wG9PdQ533dGLhu3bstDnIFU8O-2Bogll5GHXs19ULvq9GiU-2Bemy2O56gSgaV-2BGJoj0Drp47sp6fN0XSAboWpQ-3D-3D)).

Medina, on the same show a week later, was blunter: SaaS's 70–80% margins were "an anomaly" created by cheap money. "A normal, you know, software business will be running on 40 percent margins, 60 tops." He expects the winning agent businesses to be "hyper-verticalized" (narrow tools for one industry), like Veeva, which built a huge business on software for just pharmaceutical companies. His example of a company getting it right was *Sierra*, which went "for outcome based pricing right away" with "a catalog of outcomes." Customers pick from a menu of defined results, and as a result, "their margins are great."

### Theme 5: Private equity's software debt problem

*Steve Eisman* devoted his weekly show to what he sees as a slow-motion problem in software buyouts. PE firms loved SaaS because it was "easily modelable": price times customers, plus growth, "then lever it up with a nice amount of debt." Two things have since gone wrong. Interest rates on that floating-rate debt rose. And software valuations fell.

He described how the "SaaS-pocalypse" story has changed over time. The original version (AI wipes out all software) ran "from last summer until early this summer." Now the story is that companies deeply embedded in enterprises, "like perhaps ServiceNow and Salesforce," will be fine. Consumer-facing companies "like Intuit, Bookings, and Expedia" could be at risk. And AI doesn't need to destroy a company to hurt it: "It could simply slow seat growth and make it more difficult to raise prices."

His scorecard of five large software buyouts:

| Company | Deal size | Debt share | Eisman's AI-risk call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citrix (Vista) | $16.5B | 52% | Vulnerable |
| McAfee (Advent) | $14.0B | 64% | Probably not (cybersecurity) |
| Zendesk (H&F, Permira) | $10.2B | 49% | Vulnerable |
| Proofpoint (Thoma Bravo) | $12.3B | 37% | Probably not (cybersecurity) |
| Anaplan (Thoma Bravo) | $10.4B | 24% | Vulnerable |

The math is simple. Say a company was bought for $1 billion with $500 million of debt that matures in 2027. If software valuations have halved, using *Adobe (down 62% from its $630 peak in February 2024 to about $240)* as a guide, the company is now worth $500 million. "Since the debt is $500 million and the new value is $500 million, equity is worthless," even if the business is doing fine. To refinance, the lender will want another $500 million of equity, and "I think most private equity firms will just walk away."

He noted it has already started: lenders took over *Pluralsight* (2024, wiping out Vista's equity) and *Medallia* (this August, a Thoma Bravo deal). Neither was in cybersecurity. On Medallia: "I actually looked up what Medallia does… And frankly, I really have no idea what that means. But it sounds like something AI can do a lot cheaper."

His conclusion is that it's not big enough to sink the economy, but "big enough to seriously damage the reputation of the private equity industry" ([The Real Eisman Playbook, "Why Private Equity's Software Bet Is Going to Zero" (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjn65uCGX2L6sm7faWTdJSOR6eYRVU42wNcevNI9wOtIRJlNw2WdAtTFGn4psK2R1hJygea9OaJvGjSlHHUaWT-2BW3C3PUCM9uvXpeUVIEE6Eg-3D-3DDje9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfcVvIdBd8N7Hj3W7LIxRt02Jrtg-2Fi4iynvSW1ALB3Xxg3OvuKWOQjj-2BuVYn8lCL8dO1uA-2BvmBxp1rHSNxDJxMJuFiSvV-2FIDDS-2BmF1X1qHBRJyEwitDAl07OEKY1o85ui3w-3D-3D)).

### Theme 6: Cybersecurity keeps winning, and AI agents are the new attack surface

Cybersecurity stocks remain the exception to the software sell-off. This week gave them two more reasons.

*On Monday, the Justice Department said it had closed its investigation into CrowdStrike.* Jim Cramer called that "highly unusual" and "a compliment to George Kurtz." He tied the rally to AI risk: "That was when Dario said, you know what? We can do it. You don't need him… Well, it turns out you need him big time, particularly if there's liability." His picks: "Palo Alto, Nikesh Arora doing a terrific job. Okta, we've got Todd McKinnon. Those are the stocks to buy." His co-host noted that all three are among only about 17 S&P 500 stocks to have doubled this year ([Squawk on the Street, "9AM HOUR: Nvidia Adds $150B to Stock Buyback; … MongoDB CEO Leaves for Meta" (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiINUF6zgTbqcQ8UevPGlaoxf6aPXstX-2FeKNpFj1gAiKfrPr7I2wBad-2BSs0h-2FaiqxKeSvQOhuWK4E7cs78XIgNCJwJU7uM5y7oRk3zDaWOqMQ-3D-3DE1Gd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfU6WT-2FhTmlscqBBmdoEpuS4MAqqO16A-2FdvVjGG-2BxQLZagUr3hcyMXoCVD5dPgVUjWsMZ77BJJ-2FvPoEeyIbQ7SAArQF1ztEUoKNGncwfDkO6eMcyNtNMwaTJoOGgWQtsbXg-3D-3D)).

*On Friday, CrowdStrike President Michael Sentonas* explained on CNBC why AI agents create new security risks. He pointed to OpenAI holding back a model after internal tests showed "higher levels of deception." The core problem, he said, is permissions: "when an agent runs, it runs with the permissions of the person that has asked it to do something. A lot of the times, those permissions are too much." CrowdStrike's approach is to "remove all standing privilege." Agents get access only for a specific task, and lose it when the task is done. The goal is "agent explainability… so that if they are being deceptive, you can detect it." CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks both hit new highs that day ([Closing Bell, "Closing Bell Overtime: Nvidia hits all-time high 10/2/26" (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh7UVdvWNV4o5v4CzsVzpvzEmb6Jzh7kdt2XZGdP46mh4dQ2wg6wyVSvuhbmwkSjyOlc-2BXOLVZxIBe3svMuz0EhGrApWvDbusu7zGiy-2B0vNFQ-3D-3Dyjm7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfTAybKPoEdVaCqV81IpIle55gbmug6hJ0eUeti6ylwgm217BAWL0-2FVxTFtS2G7AY36IpfmvV1oOqNbV5QTfqnsDSrgQF0p35WAaqIIgPylyBIVQufVitruDpPyOoOlaL0Q-3D-3D)).

Eisman made a related point in his PE analysis: "given all the hacking that AI models have been doing of late… cybersecurity has a good shot at surviving the SaaS apocalypse."

### Theme 7: The money behind AI infrastructure

Several podcasts looked at who is actually paying for the AI build-out, and how much of it is borrowed.

* *Hyperscaler spending is now driving the stock market.* On Odd Lots, a strategist cited a Goldman note estimating that *about half of S&P 500 earnings growth this year* comes from hyperscaler capital spending. Once the hyperscalers' free cash flow went negative, he said, "Either the AI boom slows or the financing starts to get more creative. The financing has gotten more creative." Oracle "stands out versus all the other major hyperscalers" for having more debt ([Odd Lots, "Everything in Markets Is Now Moving Incredibly Fast" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh-2FE9XQg8lG0TcCIv6N-2BxbgO9nLdGjf-2Bg-2F4kFoqtYjfD1ldHmTKVF-2B6aAQB-2BZSr1uFIE6rD9zYVL0QySsBSe285QhB7AOLEmyZ7aOjWG4b-2BNw-3D-3Dlf_I_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfVOJwoCpaj-2B6LbqsEH3VtknMAsbOctr7gRA0OZSr6ND5fHTRuiPS6QsVvgN2DTAkaU7Z-2F7hg-2F67yLaL-2BGGVXFCdnCjfSfDOVxYfUm5-2BTs81zh7x4LW4rB-2Bh7Q0Nk0Cj6qQ-3D-3D)).
* *Oracle's force majeure notice stayed in the news.* On The Canadian Investor, the hosts noted Blue Owl said the notice "does not change the financial commitments" on the New Mexico project. Their point was that a six-month delay "was common practice" in energy, and a healthier company "would probably just eat it." Oracle, though, has "burned through all of its free cash flow" ([The Canadian Investor (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjmXFyf95rCu-2Bg4Aj0mA10c-2Fh9oIrJ0eSKsrLO-2BRw7WIj1J1Gw8OMEKksVDWL0Qqz6rNnJIIK1GAqNZuAy-2BCiy5T-2FonKTFVYLDY3RNkgK6jFg-3D-3DmEKz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfT2ik0QVpzcdg8imbiHcxr58kVL6vN2mPMQsPo2WjoQYZcL-2BEYchwp7-2B8OxQ074-2F5hE-2BtkpBJeVQg8x9fJpTpl6RGZVwX8OEaMVBMoaY7sTBCkh3omr13mq7i5Wq-2B-2F3DzA-3D-3D)). The Enterprise AI Show called it "the onset of a cold, you know, sneezing a little bit," and suggested someone build a "Jenga chart of AI" showing whose money holds up whose ([The Enterprise AI Show, "AI News for End of September 2026" (Oct 4)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgpAbtaR54vPRfYx9Lgw9g67oka6EQ0-2FkdoZ8eItP5N-2F-2FMo8WYQXyJaB9fqD4umM0fTzujj0Tk8rKfwi-2BdwccN6EqxU8X1aSDPB9rSZ3NW7wA-3D-3DRvJg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfcNa4PKl2MtaEbjOWpzSMY1hW77cDsOdn7DzMKR9CdpPBumo4aJvPHEqpkndZ5aWMP0KY6l8g81pIysneks8GM0-2Fwk-2FpdQH510JVPC44uaZEpBUIRlVUcgC1kU-2F5dVYydw-3D-3D)).
* *Meta's hidden debt.* Laura Martin told Closing Bell that Meta's on-balance-sheet debt and leases are small, but its off-balance-sheet obligations are about *$600 billion*. Her view is that multiples based on enterprise value (company value including debt) are "35% too low" unless you add those back. "We call shenanigans."
* *The view from a data center builder.* Crusoe's CEO Chase Lochmiller (fresh off a $3.9 billion raise at a $30.9 billion valuation) said the highest-margin business in AI infrastructure "right this instant" is managed GPU clusters, because of "a massive shortage of supply." He pushed back on the fear that AI chips go out of date fast. When Crusoe bought Nvidia Hoppers in 2023, people asked whether they'd be worth anything after year three. "Here we are three years later and the prices being charged for utilizing hoppers is higher than the rates that were being charged three years ago when they were brand new." Crusoe depreciates chips over six years and expects to stretch that ([20VC, "The Future of Datacentres … with Chase Lochmiller" (Oct 3)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhn8UNSIzkhCNbRHnr09sQ0VgHkUOj3n8-2Bn-2BD-2FLplDlrNz7n4llUGsYcLGGeQqmYmVFVatBayScnT29Udl3n4eSEB8zli43Mq56Npg32fQLJA-3D-3DDCfk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfXbb5WWhJ-2Fpbv6eMIzGCmrQ1pOZoHgzv6QeOOdbUGlhcUrA-2FDhKq2vmAFXjgBbguu3tuDDIAJr4pnSn0xS8020GB1c8l9QiU7vQX1bK2hiNeZletwmuVuyoZ-2BxNO9aE32g-3D-3D)).

---

## 2. Key Debates

### Debate 1: Is Anthropic worth $2 trillion?

*Side A: No. It's priced for perfection, its revenue is concentrated, and the commitments are huge.* Boyle's math says about 75% of the price is a bet on future growth. Eisman cites "lack of competitive moats" ("one day one model is up, next day another model is up") and says 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue comes from just Anthropic and OpenAI, a concentration risk that could tip the economy into recession if either stumbled. Kedrosky calls the adjusted-profit presentation "finance theater."

*Side B: The 2025 numbers are old news. What counts is the growth now.* O'Driscoll on 20VC says the leak "learned nothing" and that the Q3 figure is what matters. A guest on Future Ready Leadership argued 20 times revenue is defensible if Anthropic reaches $100 billion+ a year. Jason Lemkin's worry on 20VC was the opposite of a failed IPO: he thinks it will be "more than oversubscribed" but could "drift below the IPO price" a month or two later as the negative headlines pile up.

*The wedge:* whether Anthropic's revenue keeps growing as token prices fall. If growth continues, the scale justifies the price. If revenue "flatlines," it starts to look like a mature software company with frontier-lab spending.

### Debate 2: Will SaaS companies own the agent era, or be hollowed out by it?

*Side A: Incumbents win.* Atlassian, Medina, the a16z guests and Tim Guleri all argue that existing software companies already own the workflows, the data and the customer relationships, and that agents run on top of them through MCP. "SaaS will be one of the largest winners."

*Side B: Plenty of them get hollowed out.* Guleri himself says companies that don't transform "just get wiped out" (Airtable). On SaaS That App, Isaac Harmon argued custom CRMs "can be built in a weekend," which makes software "really hard" to sell without a distribution advantage ([SaaS That App, "Where AI Automation Breaks Down" (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg5yT7lGh0spBfhYONemGkg3yjyyYqZT1kwOShRCV9fPmJGsCqYpvs05Vq2QkHLNDOaX8nssSrgYTE3BeZTZtmdvjFup0gC3DBhX3e9HOGDpA-3D-3DTEUG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfYBTKXNzXUDwufGTJHZf-2B33KYKxHz-2FOAMlfQ7DkOi7lr475VFiZ-2BjA-2BgsitpJcbkp9WbIRda-2F3Ts589EjZeejvJIRPNWeiqGf-2BrPhtuyTBMx-2Btjr7FMNIg4TZCJwetyZrA-3D-3D)). Eisman's version: AI doesn't need to kill a company. Slower seat growth and less pricing power are enough to crush its valuation.

*The wedge:* whether incumbents can work out how to *charge* for agents. Medina: "they just need to figure out how to capture value. And if they don't, somebody else will."

### Debate 3: Seats, tokens or outcomes?

*Side A: Charge for usage and outcomes.* Medina argues seat-based contracts shrink at every renewal and that outcome catalogs (the Sierra model) produce "great" margins. Zuora is moving all its own AI spending to tokens.

*Side B: Don't push token costs onto customers.* Pega's Stillwell thinks per-token pricing rewards waste. He absorbs the cost and charges for the work done. Topline's hosts raised the CFO's objections to usage pricing: "How do we manage our budget? How do we forecast spend? … They were token maxing and they actually are completely inefficient."

*The wedge:* who carries the risk when AI costs spike. Under token pricing, the customer does. Under Pega's model, the vendor does, and has a reason to keep costs down.

### Debate 4: Have open-source models peaked?

*Side A: Yes.* Jason Lemkin on 20VC: "I think we've reached peak open weights." Two reasons. First, Anthropic and OpenAI "can twist the knobs" and cut prices whenever they want (Sonnet 5.5 came in about 20% cheaper "in one week"). Second, big companies won't run Chinese-origin models: at Dreamforce, "No one wants to run on open-source models there… Not a single person."

*Side B: No, and it doesn't matter anyway.* Jack Altman said the right investment for the last 18 months was "just keep buying inference" (Modal, Baseten, Fireworks, Together). Many tasks are hitting "intelligence saturation," where a cheaper model does the job just as well: "your tax return is filed correctly or it's not filed correctly." Even if open-source share halves, "total consumption goes up by 10x."

*The wedge:* whether "good enough" AI keeps winning on price. If it does, software apps keep more of their margins. If the frontier labs win on both price and quality, apps stay dependent on them.

### Debate 5: Will the 2021 hangover repeat for today's AI startups?

*Side A: Yes.* Topline read a post from Yext CEO Michael Walrath warning that 90% of the 2020–21 growth rounds ended with "a broken cap table and disinterested investors," and that "it's by far the likeliest outcome for even the hottest companies today."

*Side B: No, because founders are already cashing out along the way.* Asad Zaman countered that secondary sales (selling existing shares to new investors before an IPO) are "massively up," so "founders are making a lot of money along the way… employees are taking liquidity as well." Bruno's reply: "They're making more in secondaries than their revenue right now… That was true in 21."

---

## 3. Specific Names, Bull and Bear Calls

### Anthropic (private, IPO pending)

* *Bear:* Eisman (zero interest at $2T; no moat; he suspects the IPO timing is meant to beat a second-half slowdown); Boyle (~31 times revenue, ~75% of the value is speculative); Kedrosky ("finance theater"); Pivot called the concentration (47% of sales routed through Amazon and Google, a quarter from two customers) a "huge red flag" ([Pivot (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi2lm7MpjDsvUOHJTYvTCHx3ZuG7LFRG4hFgoS9GaB0cf9m0iCnNcgCpyMVqGKhByatb6xKVRznJ4M4Zsc0G08gm914uEK6Imi1CnegICrsEQ-3D-3DXpjD_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfRpVjZctivfHUdHMaW6wCY7S8dcts1RyADn-2FtD4RVbs8b-2Fsb47C0cEkCbUyQIw4Yx9QdkpF2AIPBgDU9vY7linoYeweVOO2T4CiTp3rNs-2BcVT2BY29Nn5nUc1MZaJXLCTg-3D-3D)).
* *Bull/neutral:* O'Driscoll ("someone spent half a billion dollars on Anthropic last year, which is pretty impressive"). Tim Guleri called it "the spikiest of the spike" in venture's power law, while warning VCs not to chase "the next Anthropic." On The NAVigator, John Cole Scott recommended BlackRock's BTX closed-end fund (~9% Anthropic exposure) as the cleanest way to own it before the IPO ([The NAVigator (Oct 2)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiQwsX1kWyt7EC0S9sMo459foD7h-2FLz-2F49Mq3pqQoWyt5w6GM1GsBiON26S1YDWpppIejURm9pSnsPIoMilyDcqU01l2RSI8TAvTleOOm4HqQ-3D-3DpGmh_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfVBrhBwKvsa80mP2TZW-2FILwk1eHuNtfmKrVv6vHg66264ZYCwsDtpcfgRSVKhjkKQchVsRF-2Fa0aAfdeS5WdAKw1inS7vkDfEjd0H-2BYxs4U9966F1gLC1Feh5FPts5jOCxg-3D-3D)).

### OpenAI (private)

* Raising $30 billion at $1.4 trillion; IPO pushed back; Dots agent priced at a premium (Altman on Bloomberg). On 20VC, O'Driscoll said OpenAI is now "killing it, really exploding in growth" relative to Anthropic. Lemkin said OpenAI "just hit $70 billion… in enterprise," but on Topline, Asad Zaman said OpenAI's newest model "feels like the future right now," so much that he stopped using Claude.

### Atlassian (TEAM)

* *Bull (CEO):* "The SaaSpocalypse that wasn't." 98%+ of MCP users still use the interface; Atlassian is a connected "Union Square," not a "control tower"; deep partnership with Figma through each other's MCP servers.

### MongoDB (MDB)

* *Bear (near-term):* CEO CJ Desai left to become Meta's chief enterprise platform officer the day before MongoDB's analyst meeting. TBPN said the stock was "down 26% earlier" before recovering to about −16%. Their view: "You don't like it when a hired gun CEO leaves before even investing into their grant" ([TBPN, "… Mongo Got Zucked" (Sep 28)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg-2Fov-2BOZt5oHZgRoeRq4lbIt-2BTVtpDVELPD3-2F-2FptShf-2BEZPUwQFfCvYj76pKPBoVKxzD4kM-2BnA6tML-2FkfW1FVyr62cFCHLbZhYrL8fcU1Uh8A-3D-3DYojH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfcq-2B-2F0GeIfo5AePV4t2W00CrpznRaJfJMhPjI4HRbNFE5MlT8ZZKW-2F4z4uA8IoEGxnMtD0tcgWZ6-2FZnqC4RiUlrs9LJLDuoSO-2FCLMruayDWMEL8STLLGHes3ZnbtEOuX5A-3D-3D)). Cramer: "Mongo, D.B. had a good quarter… I'm going to put this under the bad form category."
* *Counterpoint:* the Elon Musk Podcast argued the $53 million hiring package shows enterprise software know-how is becoming "exponentially more valuable" in AI, not less ([Elon Musk Podcast, "Meta's 53 million dollar enterprise AI hire" (Sep 29)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOicGdXMLIhOjknIcKGZjKHcctWg2S-2FPsm4h0zDq4UYSjLkI2YkvqbaSbw6Hfh9-2FNU-2BY9lIUuOSzsCtV9EBB4E8nKWgtN-2BpEP-2B2tC5iBjkZ6-2Fw-3D-3DAFkz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfaQ29wOaMq-2FG47dLxxyQrHg9Y1VkOyipzQENU3PY6-2F-2F3-2BLg22GZnYY3ueXBuqWIzNIT5NGxXeFX1Ga58JNtRLR7pKdXjoKOYnU74LpqAL-2Bw6eU8tFCsnzrALRUxNWj5Klg-3D-3D)).

### Meta (META), as an enterprise software entrant

* *Skeptical:* The Enterprise AI Show predicted that in three years "this Mongo CEO will leave and they'll wind this division… down." TBPN quoted the view that "it took Google a decade plus to become an enterprise company. Can Meta even get there?" TBPN's own read: Meta will probably sign "a big compute deal" and report the enterprise unit going "from $0 to $10 billion," with a lot of that being compute resale. Laura Martin flagged ~$600 billion in off-balance-sheet obligations.

### CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Okta (OKTA)

* *Bull:* Cramer: "Those are the stocks to buy," after the DOJ closed its CrowdStrike probe; all three have doubled this year. CrowdStrike's president described agent permissions and "agent explainability" as the new security frontier. CRWD and PANW hit new highs on Oct 2.
* *Caution:* On IBD, an analyst warned that "when these stocks are priced for perfection, there's really not much room for error," and Ed Carson added that the rally came "in anticipation that there'll be this big AI tailwind, and it hasn't happened yet really" ([Stock Market Today With IBD (Sep 30)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjnUauEVHwqDTBfbUvHjqJN4QEWrdwtu5jjvIRqDU37TaCSsSvrHgPPGP0JM1ibfkedhSEPZp1uzmjy-2Bh-2BobsD-2Fz2VIRA46v04-2BtwiQjJ206g-3D-3DWIpc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfRmGIr-2FfueRKPQcVJM-2FKEpqK7cBjqpnyLfIra8uakxZsJSS4nvXN1fEMPe1FJ0nFLwRsqB-2Bm1EtWq-2BJCaw40ACklTgBKcx2dAyYeBOzRBioHZD7E0LRrxCux6t-2BZVH0fmg-3D-3D)).

### Salesforce (CRM)

* *Bull:* Eisman lists it, with ServiceNow, among companies "deeply embedded in enterprises" with moats. Cramer: "their business is so much stronger than people expect… no one really canceled." Salesforce's chief data officer pitched Data360 as the data foundation agents need. Lemkin's Dreamforce read: big-company buyers won't touch Chinese open-weight models.

### ServiceNow (NOW)

* *Cautious bull:* On Schwab Network, Dan (options strategist) sees the pipeline building "through 2027." The stock is about 30% below its yearly high, near $135, with support around $130. His suggested trade: sell November 130 puts, buy 150 calls ([Schwab Network, "The Big 3: NET, NOW, NVDA" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2B3URUOSNCa3ih-2BZ7zFs6IrRYfvYbE3KpxT9FXKSOJdKE7L2SYaOntdKRTGMnhMK45ZU79X0aA5K9lAF-2BH2Yv6hYUFbwvFtMk9ntknxcO-2BEA-3D-3DGUKw_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfekC8GvKgsDKwiB9BED744oQXeHRpuE3zgl0Jw9UqODdoxMKewGVKoZs-2FTTCENKNCxZdpKZvFJzW2FVfnzYX6sc7O89JQo8GMkk-2FIP8uP73bRhvO-2FFNZDrDBW-2BZn6WKpGw-3D-3D)).

### Microsoft (MSFT)

* *Bull:* IBD's Ed Carson: "A mega-cap software stock sounds pretty good right now." He noted the positive reaction to last week's Copilot changes and revenue growth "in the high teens." Ed Zitron raised questions on Monetary Matters about how Microsoft and OpenAI account for their revenue share ([Monetary Matters, "Ed Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty Risk" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiF7Ewy2QArPyMKuALtwOM0dYCH6EiSjpsTGJmRqq0JP2DPtM3-2FhjtOTVSbDzQacBZxRG2b5QKu8FYb0nFgTtLV-2FnrXeLoLebyrE-2B0Iw72txg-3D-3DRsGC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfTAOIajr-2BuMXcDuUPv2sEzFJ9B-2FWBzTCUMKnVhtUTOLpOrd4NcsZD-2FdpTTM1BQaV0Sa-2Bj38JHZ2DeZmD09DrDwQZ9eq4U5JDLH-2BMsmLjJOKjNaRHiC1wEKnXL30nclob3A-3D-3D)).

### Snowflake (SNOW)

* *Bull (chart):* IBD sees it "looking pretty strong," with a "very tight" weekly pattern and a potential entry around $348. Up 2.8% on Sep 30.
* *Strategic:* a16z's David George named Databricks, Palantir and Snowflake as companies that will "vie for" the AI "abstraction layer" (the software layer that picks which model handles each task) ([Uncapped with Jack Altman, "David George from a16z" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi1jx5dV9LcTvnQrChEG01GNmCo2620HUScP8reu2475Ur8jSkFUZ-2BD3e9H8thHIhOLqwKdWYoqusM3LuAXtV3VqjBSa6YimAcM-2FueAdbtkQQ-3D-3DW9vu_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfQZlAXnEgISKjCqrkvk132KeBH-2FpZZH-2FtIzkgYlkjuv79yfLfERGuscZ0LcmxNM-2FeZ9JsTVO2aIm9NFLynb5WO2HP5bsk8kqdqXpRoYes-2FBMYBvzKyeOIi74nXSIdSDddw-3D-3D)).

### Databricks (private)

* *Bull:* David George says Ali Ghodsi's revenue "has accelerated" seven years after a16z's first growth investment at about $6 billion, and the business "is now positioned to benefit from AI. That's why it's growing so fast." a16z is "on, like, M now" in funding-round letters.

### Oracle (ORCL)

* *Bear:* Odd Lots says Oracle "stands out" for its debt among hyperscalers. The Canadian Investor says it has burned through its free cash flow, which explains the force majeure notice. The Enterprise AI Show: "If Oracle ended up taking down the entire AI industry… nobody was looking over there."

### Adobe (ADBE)

* *Bear (as a stand-in for the sector):* Eisman uses its 62% fall from peak ($630 → ~$240) as his model for how far software valuations have dropped. Cramer was doubtful about AI-driven cancellations: "Adobe, I get the $600 prescription. Muse, kill the prescription. Is that what I'm supposed to do?"

### Shopify (SHOP), Guidewire (GWRE), Gartner (IT), FactSet (FDS), MSCI (MSCI)

* *Bull:* Baron Capital's Michael Baron says these are "beaten up and are on sale." Valuations have been "cut in half" even though they are still growing "high single digits up to in the 20% range." Their protection is proprietary data: Shopify's "3.5 million customers and 20-year history of data with their merchants" "cannot be disintermediated." He noted the gap between AI winners and losers widened to 47.5 points in the first half of 2026, then reversed over the past two months ([Excess Returns, "Michael Baron on the AI Winners Investors Miss" (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiO3SgeStOBD3uJTPUc2tNs1W50-2Bggkb8Vc3l3gQOx7DCaydoSCM2gXH7-2BKFU84mw7DvOJQYF19bPBdSjEXqR76hMeTTJLMFfcGRkr7aTYx0A-3D-3DAkxR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfTt1gME547AEfpERlAdgWLD9tPr1GtSi96JqPn3xZieLvYl7In2molkQh9u6RHJZsLuOg2-2FTKCc9IFS3cg4JUn9ldsiXkcjiHO3LjHAo6I9Hj3fqa-2FLMqtKHG5Hb-2Fe4LMg-3D-3D)).

### Intuit (INTU)

* *Bear (risk flag):* Eisman puts it among consumer-facing software companies "at risk" in the current version of the AI story.

### FICO (FICO)

* *Bear:* The Canadian Investor's hosts went through FICO's loss of its mortgage monopoly, as Fannie and Freddie now also accept VantageScore. They said the price per score went from $0.60 in 2020 to $10 in 2026 (up ~1,800%), and called it "one of the most brain-dead pricing escalations you could witness." Management borrowed more than $1.5 billion in June to buy back stock at about $1,150; the shares are now worth "just a little over half of that."

### Pegasystems (PEGA)

* *Constructive:* CFO says Pega Cloud gross margin is now about 80% (up from under 30%), growth comes mostly from expanding existing clients, and it is deliberately not charging per token.

### Zuora (private, taken private)

* Moving its own AI spending entirely to tokens and running per-employee token budgets. Its chief operating and financial officer says AI is "changing both how we sell our software and what customers expect from it."

### Harvey (private)

* *Bear (on margins):* gross margin fell from ~+50% to −50% by June as agent usage grew (Topline). *Bull (on demand):* LawNext's guest pointed to its $550 million raise at $15 billion as evidence that sophisticated legal buyers see "real value," though he was unsure whether domain-specific AI companies survive if the big labs move into legal ([LawNext (Oct 1)](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgaI8WhPHzCnRbGw65qeImdKJPeDpU85-2BukiRRhB4dA-2BNHe-2F4jlOHMc0RVUGKsX659aZnuHIdWJ7WWBSN9NY-2BVGgCqHR-2BS86vIKyvuHM4lhyw-3D-3DsBcx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbU8KOF0tB73Z6GzzhMKwZohxXdnqwrtjZt9AJNJ1pjBfc0NYBts0wH9KA1d7ducTlg94XWWctneOou-2BHexRjjK7u0xg-2FaebBMmVm91XToKkvjJFtlTddVNDlKQf-2BhW4cg9Lc-2BRxFVxIdjbU2R3HC2UJ4wNDIGVRYka62cIaojYlfQ-3D-3D)).

### Sierra (private)

* *Bull:* Medina says Sierra's "catalog of outcomes" pricing is why "their margins are great," and that selling by outcome works beyond customer support.

### Airtable (private)

* *Bear:* Guleri says it "got bought for two X" because "they were going to get anthropic."

### Crusoe (private)

* *Bull:* $3.9 billion Series F at $30.9 billion. Lochmiller wants to build "an AI super major," modeled on Exxon, owning energy, data centers, GPUs and inference so that its margins are naturally hedged.

### Inference platforms: Modal, Baseten, Fireworks, Together (private)

* *Bull:* Jack Altman on 20VC said buying inference has been "a really great way to get an index bet on everything outside the labs." 20VC mentioned Modal tripling its valuation to $15 billion and Baseten in talks at $26 billion. "I'm long inference."

### PE-owned software: Citrix, Zendesk, Anaplan (vulnerable); McAfee, Proofpoint (probably safe); Pluralsight, Medallia (already taken over by lenders)

* See Eisman's table in Theme 5.

---

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