# Diesel Spikes and Boeing Wins the Navy Fighter as Factories Feel Tariffs - Weekly Industrials Podcast Recap - Week of October 4, 2026

> Weekly Industrials Podcast Recap for the week of October 4, 2026, covering podcasts published September 27 to October 4. Synthesis of the record diesel spike and its margin hit to transport and industrials, Boeing's F/A-XX Navy fighter win over Northrop Grumman, a softening September ISM factory survey, a tight but uncertain freight market, steel and rare-earth reshoring, and the data-center buildout driving demand for engines, power and cooling equipment.

## Weekly Industrials Podcast Recap

### Week of October 4, 2026: Diesel Spikes and Boeing Wins the Navy Fighter as Factories Feel Tariffs

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*Podcasts published Sunday, September 27 to Sunday, October 4, 2026*

## Executive summary

* *Diesel was the biggest industrials story of the week.* The national average for truck diesel hit records for three weeks in a row, climbing 93 cents, before dropping 14.7 cents to $6.38 a gallon. Commentators traced it to the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, and lost Russian refining capacity. They connected it directly to margin pressure at truckers, parcel carriers (FedEx, UPS) and fuel-heavy industrials.
* *Boeing won the Navy's F/A-XX fighter contract and beat Northrop Grumman.* The open question is whether Boeing can now build everything on its plate. Aviation Week's editors called it a clean sweep of the next-generation fighter programs, but warned that Boeing is "in for a very difficult 10, 15 years."
* *The September factory survey (ISM PMI) still shows growth, but the details got worse.* The headline index fell only a tenth of a point. But prices paid jumped 6.8 points, and the share of negative comments that blamed tariffs rose from 29% to 34%, with Canada tariffs hitting machinery and transportation equipment hard.
* *Freight is tight, but nobody agrees whether the down cycle is over.* Truckers turned away about 14% of contracted loads, spot rates for dry vans were roughly 46% above last year, and freight moving by rail container hit records. But Class 8 truck orders fell below 10,000 in August. A FreightWaves show asked "Is trucking finally at the bottom? Not so fast."
* *Two very different bets on reshoring.* Commerce Secretary Lutnick credited the 50% steel tariff for a new $15 billion steel mill in Iowa. Defense contractors (Northrop, Boeing, General Dynamics, RTX) told the administration they cannot meet a January 1 deadline to remove Chinese rare earths and tungsten from Pentagon equipment.
* *Data center buildout is still the main growth story for electrical, HVAC and engines.* Caterpillar engines are being used to build on-site power plants for data centers, and Eaton is co-designing factory-built cooling and power modules with Trane and NVIDIA. Skeptics flagged local opposition to data centers and power-grid limits.
* *Aerospace demand is not the problem; suppliers are.* Bombardier's CEO said Airbus and Boeing have "almost a decade of backlog" and that the whole industry is held back by a few specialized suppliers of castings, fan blades and large structures. The Investor's Podcast concluded that HEICO is the better business than TransDigm, but TransDigm is the better price today.

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## Section 1: Dominant themes

### 1. Diesel and the Iran war took over the transport conversation

On FTR's weekly trucking update, Avery Weiss gave the numbers. Diesel fell to *$6.38 a gallon*, its first week without a record in a month, after rising "93 cents in just three weeks, setting successive all-time highs each week along the way." Even after the dip, it was still the "second highest weekly average ever." Low diesel inventories have prompted calls for a ban on diesel exports. [FTR | State of Freight](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjrVwke27qk9RttfPxtej3Fg6w25k3yiom8QTF9xVeymuLS-2BQXr0HW-2Bq7tzAeDXUW0uVza0ddj0PvYhfgPnIQDruz0xjLpucU0z-2FP2KYK6eCQ-3D-3DXIA4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcmImHJZHoaak7qIivkC5mGK6u4GmOuqgZ8VR8-2BE2of-2F8g4tRHd5pKgHUA1gtdcit2JkkBqDSMXDG7vZlyK3l6BZSVrgbt-2FUZdmUPjo1e0I7eYJshx8EyLMoyJj8DQ0QmJ4ERfdtA9npI0Ww76jtivMs-3D)

Why is diesel so much worse than crude oil? Rory Johnston (Commodity Context) gave the clearest answer. Crude is flowing again, but refined products are not. On Facts vs Feelings he said diesel markets have lost roughly 2 million barrels a day from the Middle East and Russia. Diesel "crack spreads" (the refiner's margin for turning a barrel of crude into diesel) are running $90–115 a barrel, against a normal level of about $20. [Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgO0YbDes3BH7lO5gHQfqldHEqt7AqIebXnwAxqrUj-2FAS1lJ6KC9BCZKDdfl59pxwEDZ4525ci9larL1TD2irT54HAgrwkIMkETr0hwKZXiRA-3D-3DaKDP_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcriNqeF5n8PB-2Bh1Dxd1Fo-2Fyr5H4BGIhxXw0mGi7ZWd6FErW-2FVq61f2f-2FZ-2B77uf-2BubdttyNFg4hdGunPj-2B1-2BWCnl7RrWJLolXhea3cHY2bPNO45lVUXML0r5dd2M3gZ11y-2BvcZo6DLanavH6YHV1iM0I-3D) On The David Lin Report, Johnston put the national diesel price at $6.41 with crack spreads above $120. [The David Lin Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhWySGJxNDMDR6Ay-2Fp0Y3zJhMQ04dgpXnK62u2Iu6DuH-2BOUgC-2BZNHPeuBQSCocQyTcDBsX46FMF7CCJ1Wou2wypMDvAHp7J-2BNc5YsOQaK1AEg-3D-3DFI17_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcoJQu5VjLCwGkJBKboQZhKtNZ-2BpiJ6Pd4x-2BqlHOzZr4swdODH-2BCl7PHTGP39jTYJLzWmBAoDCP20-2FyiC-2FADl69xiYnWmjnyUjx4zmAAMzO0YSV2U7CqiVojNcCUt51EkRte5cYwjGZSZzIuGLKSaXxo-3D)

On Bloomberg Surveillance, Paul Sankey (Sankey Research) restated diesel as a crude-oil-equivalent price:

*"If you're at 650 diesel, you're at $250 a barrel. We've got a $100 crude, you've got 250 diesel, and we use diesel. So you have a structural transport increase."* [Bloomberg Surveillance](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhlmpG26npxT05bGW6YtTebYUs6ivoH3wL5cTqcuV2rCT7k-2FzPKDo-2FUJT1GGE5-2FbW082boWEY0cFFoE-2FhW6bV5NNcdTD5pbnyznLvbQ4kMrmg-3D-3DZmwf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlct8EpwhF06gksF6kehd17Vwk-2FWpClOgPMYI3dU8YcKHUT2TnbW7TFU7eAow3Qb3c6juWxrUnb6yXbLNvUHbMePq4I5xH49HSj5PdPLQTQ87nt6d9UCz5oHlMYir0wyXklFdvnJARCmFL9OnP32AYh4U-3D)

The industrials read-through came from Tony Greer on The Competent Investor. He said that until diesel comes down, *"it's going to be more pressure on industrials, more pressure on everybody that needs gas, transports, retail, things like that."* [The Competent Investor](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgOjwvzSgHikDPJPYKA5bHdDl6hFnnjC924erb2lld3y0n9kcVrJOm76sgPcQUckEw7ZpMFv4Tp9-2BLEGzAgrZb4HWewuedwYTMZ3ipYThys8A-3D-3DXyNJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlchKQGI6dfHyf-2Fyt7WQgt-2BRTvB-2F67q0QFGTa2nrK9S4odJTk1MJNU-2BcGQ0swaEmTPkKp1wEGyVGJTErknuAQx0VyS-2FZ06UOTMkcxA6YcpiPT47pqTLwVTNbsl53Li41LS6u3X0FHYIjbN54Bf3jo1Le0-3D) On Excess Returns, a guest estimated that if diesel stays high it would add about half a percentage point to consumer inflation (CPI), through freight bills for trucking and rail. [Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjBlYAh1Xwq-2BWosVD7RRFb8S23aLhYwEtNLSIpeLJXWzOyJLIdG6zI709UmNq8-2BlxCAzQXsFCrxJEM7Kv-2BZmu3CFOgaapKcySbhCc1YAUauZA-3D-3DZcrr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcs8hOwqc8FKxh94uCD9o6Rlbpc3TIGoXLf66PI19X1eGFqKvmMYIvdJdN5FUvNVrzfhcHxBC5y3xusjdzLU9jxtA-2BVPok7Ji54a-2F5eUa-2FkqYw7waijnnEMWwVArSaxqILZ2HUoxTSsAP7x7WD8iI5XM-3D)

One group is benefiting: air cargo. On Aviation Week's Check 6, the editors said Hormuz disruptions are sending urgent goods from ships to planes. IATA data shows cargo traffic up 4.6% in the first half. Ocean rates have "more than doubled" from a year ago, while air freight rates are up about 25% since the war began. [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgUYkREdQnUTMoYaFFNn0qp3q7sO6ct-2FNugzALLwQy5wwv8waQAt9Y9YvaCXU-2B39hPYJLsuBlwHO8U6YjbvHXc88JnsLTgodxrrJJF6lqdrSw-3D-3DDkm9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcn44T7qKUktSF13QYxCT70Nk0bsdQwB0669LdLLQohFI1ODa6-2Bj5mUTgkCJsgamsZKn9nwrGUUSnhlYVW8zxW0COFeG2mSazyZzTxuv6rGkmP5DJXaI7OpOwXlBATWJl1xNwq0MhuNHYKlxlzJMR8ls-3D)

### 2. Boeing's F/A-XX win and the question of whether it can deliver

On Aviation Week's emergency Check 6 episode, host Robert Wall started with the main point: the question for Boeing *"is definitely no longer, does the company have a fighter business? It's really now, can it pull off all that business that it has?"*

Pentagon editor Brian Everstein explained the details:

* The Navy budgeted *$20 billion* for the program, which will start replacing F/A-18s and EA-18s in the 2030s.
* Boeing now holds both sixth-generation fighter programs (the Air Force's F-47 and the Navy's F/A-XX).
* The announcement was strangely quiet: "a press release after COB, we didn't have the Oval Office treatment."
* The long delay has put "a lot more pressure on Lockheed's F-35 to deliver better."

GE released a congratulatory statement, which the panel read as confirming GE as the engine supplier, probably a version of an existing military engine (the F110 family).

Senior defense editor Steve Trimble listed what Boeing is already juggling: F-15EX, F-47, MQ-25, T-7, KC-46 and B-52 modernization, "a lot of these things that they're actually struggling with to keep on schedule and certainly under their own costs, especially for those fixed-price programs." One panelist was blunt: *"I think that Boeing's in for a very difficult 10, 15 years ahead of it as it tries to get these aircraft going."* The panel also noted the contracts give the government rights to take the airframe or system integration away from Boeing if it doesn't perform. [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj09RnYJfgHm6c9QYu2VewfWzqQrLxEgCqGnSjJgsNEdQNMO9S0gH2-2BVdAX4-2BJVitKVMBK-2FbS4YxFiksTw-2FQgbxNWb0YiCGsogXZvvwwyunfA-3D-3DR0dS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlchCSvy853C2XaQ0XCO7Xsv80zkQK6wHIe-2BP2yaN5GRJnLhG0qwVqycJ3cBTe2KYKAt1BlLq57Y45QfK7IszWoDecOlOj-2BVGrT0t49lrIXAhnka4coQthJsxtabZHgXBGPEEgQF7aTo83qGy77NxoaLY-3D)

Separately, Schwab's market update reported Boeing up 3% on Thursday after it avoided a strike by its largest white-collar union. [Schwab Market Update Audio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjPD5gOr1LqqyqtVfPtjHUtTn0P4M3dhLHatMUDC7QiBMBnuTadPzzTw6u4kBhhGrxX-2BsVkDGf-2FgqlKW7gTQGR4JzZb5KvkPcWVKAS2ve5NGA-3D-3DebR-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlci6fw0NtEnbFHkDYXtf7SmsxI1Y-2FHoPkXuSnDxmdw5T1kPzOZgHdAHi7h0WlS8iJrOKH1ZGHUzl4aExkdSc4uhE1sP7wnQ8nNORlqrzAlrPY2qNyBcnln-2BRpawwd2DZLsvnfZ2-2FpmpglA-2FNlzvd2HH0-3D)

### 3. The September ISM factory survey: still growing, but the comments turned sour

On Manufacturing Talk Radio, ISM Manufacturing Committee chair Susan Spence went through the report:

* The headline index (PMI, a monthly survey where readings above 50 mean factories are growing) was "down a tenth of a point."
* Prices had "a 6.8 percentage point jump."
* Production has fallen two months in a row.
* The supplier-deliveries index of 59 means deliveries are slowing. Spence warned it is "kind of propping up the PMI number," because the slowdown partly reflects parts shortages rather than strong demand.

Spence said the share of negative comments that cited tariffs rose "from 29% of negative comments up to 34%," and 30% mentioned the war. One machinery respondent said: *"Orders have doubled yet again. Delivery times have also doubled... Canada tariffs have impacted cross-border costs, left our supply chain team scrambling. Those supply chains took years to develop."* Host Lew Weiss worried the full effect of the Canada tariffs "is not yet felt," pointing out that some auto parts cross the US-Canada border "as many as eight times." [Manufacturing Talk Radio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvR-2FH-2FFqm-2F6jKmY-2BopTiZHQUGsk-2B311oVIDGdmEFLBZ-2FBZ2ufu-2FRznIsyytDWFajpfxz9Q-2BUj6rHoc5LnZYHb5iiLwxlkZGTWps-2Brth0A4QA-3D-3DWaMp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlckjQLSsaNW4szoajkol9LN0SDGTdGM4ZNX9YklRzJOaTIPaa3inPbqzJIDqA33M77S8kgXilBM2ERhgPrLzLw4xxgC2ZuoqaU4y-2BZBKKBSKmvywlWy8WNgmEybPbC9UJ-2FwBrXIhiZjLULNwZpmDN4nE-3D)

The Morning Market Briefing put the headline at *54.5 against 55 expected*, the ninth straight month of growth, with *prices paid at 77.9*. The hosts argued the tariff disruption is *"probably a net benefit for a lot of the bigger publicly traded players. And it's going to hurt the operations of a lot of the mom and pops that don't have the robust supply chain."* [The Morning Market Briefing](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgmO8FigWrsqRcv7Y0cJMviIAOU8R0-2FZuNNBbGXw1kdMryAed0VpPhIGCaA4ihJ84yonzZuSGTJ2rigUMZV8bwobZHLk9ozcPle1dAyTX3HBA-3D-3DkqeQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcnpw-2BJ2jRHi3LWlklO-2BEuy5m6V1ZQSYkgtnPLuulNmSn1JM-2F-2FYn9BT1vDuD3YlNwRmleBoe0zCMLM6RpVU6YRa18pEGdMZh-2BwZmWzMvgvp0ixT3PLGv5UxlRmF8ePQtWqrBeuOxcD-2FNL-2BubK3zXZfTY-3D)

Other data points from the week:

* FreightWaves noted S&P Global's manufacturing PMI "jumping to 57 from... just under 54 in August." [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6GO8XWXA-2BLX3AsiqvXk-2BfIpIA9PDhCByyw-2FPvfCvOecidjfO7W0FtFG-2BM5e1SA-2Bkz3cQQPrPJw7jbhHolIK-2BlFaZeYOFZ1g2oSCHm9gKOyg-3D-3DjB0g_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrPlTp7lXvQZIsld3OCYJDMn6R3ZRlLbSOiaUAMbHCmalJsrLmOZkss8oDuaJeXT0JiDr7mmoe8vLBqmslP6CUTt6lmt94EO7p7zgPd1xYu4CKDjMSnOdkW61iayheoMowYtSw5EN8ag2S4wLFgAsRE-3D)
* FTR said August machinery orders rose 1.1% from July and about 15% from a year earlier. [FTR | State of Freight](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjrVwke27qk9RttfPxtej3Fg6w25k3yiom8QTF9xVeymuLS-2BQXr0HW-2Bq7tzAeDXUW0uVza0ddj0PvYhfgPnIQDruz0xjLpucU0z-2FP2KYK6eCQ-3D-3Dqbz-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlciqXqi8bPbTMdEFXkHq77mmaHv5SBxCLOaJqN-2F8URxky1BuN3mFZhn3y-2BUEwCEK86alLsY9P-2FT0T4HtAUPZ2nlAn-2Bqdoe7FcvffSNFPIlrnTzbU4v2tprhwX59wGnGDOKXFdbwiN5KdEvn-2BhgZupj34-3D)
* On All-In, one host pointed to the Chicago PMI and ISM as signs of *"a huge wave of re-industrialization in this country."* [All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgKIafiDRFtPHu50SdvLri4ZM30kMqYokXyiTnXl6NvUDf1D9v25gp9WkLmLDXqUdjJ9syWwIgdurQF5-2BhrDpguDIvIokT7aUWui81cNkaxxg-3D-3DQEKH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrDMQDK4nDTgorKvq88Ko4qPjI9xsN0UMpHKKjPxHoGsa-2BcN86iuLrOV7QD-2BSv5D-2BZ6MPaKb1nE9sdG2C-2BYFlumGf8G0AiwZj10B9tSHjOLu2R8wypHZvEdJQ-2FCvPKFxcnckZ0vGSkM0rlCS4z1Z-2Fb8-3D)

### 4. Freight: capacity is tight, demand is not

FreightWaves Today (Sept. 28) described a tense balance. Truckers are rejecting about 14% of contracted loads ("still really healthy and a lot higher than it was last year"). Spot rates are high but steady, and contract rates are rising. Meanwhile, the two big demand drivers, autos and housing, "remain weak." Schneider CEO Jim Filter told the show the regulatory crackdown on unsafe carriers is squeezing capacity and raising barriers to entry. [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6GO8XWXA-2BLX3AsiqvXk-2BfIpIA9PDhCByyw-2FPvfCvOecidjfO7W0FtFG-2BM5e1SA-2Bkz3cQQPrPJw7jbhHolIK-2BlFaZeYOFZ1g2oSCHm9gKOyg-3D-3Drw5X_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcjviUiKB5GuanjvL2EEENlSmt0NGKCjUD7IrF6tiCtRaESIGHnXCliBGNoir-2Fzin3VvMHVmSR4I7NChvqZHBWF1p9CYLeMzxYDa6vtGD4rK12Gu-2FZskbR5wY7acArEv79xmh0AWb2jvVLTrIMz5iSoo-3D)

Freight moving by rail container ("intermodal") is setting records because trucking diesel is so expensive. FreightWaves' contract savings index for intermodal fell from more than 33% in mid-August to about 30.9%, which is still historically high. The Harrisburg–Atlanta lane offers 43% savings over truck. The limit is drayage, the short truck haul between the rail yard and the warehouse. Drayage drivers fell from 531,000 in 2022 to 467,000 by July. [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg41N-2FNP4eLK1rl0zutbi-2FS5y2Xbo2MLuHbnyjSl0GLmTylH4XTPAi6OrxkHosOrGRvn0mw0uD4iTIpjTKEf5TpaM-2BRgeoB9fSTBkMe6yXdOw-3D-3DzVRE_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcnElEtun1eP57h5KleDJ9AEyggZooZAm5yN7JXvWrloqlD2ScfswQ-2FbZAZ1pajzrBHArLd0D6F6K37eflNpkX3isR7z3eE51BhIj4f4KTLg4OnS0-2BYxzHKoxhXUrf7Bg0O8ugAArJ3EOrJ-2Fv-2FKsmG2g-3D)

On TRUCK YEAH!, the hosts pointed out that Class 8 (heavy truck) orders in August were "below 10,000 trucks." That is well below the replacement rate, which means carriers are fixing their balance sheets instead of adding trucks. [The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3oxwO7S5mOaNTPLci7aL021HfKq77vqGe12tgDR31NAPzQkrEfgfD6Uk2fTQK6B9bBtqZdo27Crksy3FvjgAI041B9VctxOo3NE0B6cRO8A-3D-3DA5Bv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcsWivS1RV-2Bh3GOeLFA1PLVmUcbLa3-2Bmob8FBEB0IlvyeQToCMNAtR5DDNMtCbdcqdP6G7tuqZ4Zi3ytzs1JmzehBEuh6luMZOEET2CmAAIlXXYNfb-2FsjghaoeZRbtm-2B5qr8d2Behk-2Bq62wwZ9kBJTKw-3D)

### 5. Tariffs, reshoring and rare earths

* *Steel reshoring win.* NTD reported President Trump announcing a $15 billion Mesabi Metallics integrated steel mill in Iowa, which could produce steel as early as 2030. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said: *"Without those tariffs, this mine doesn't get built and this steel plant does not get built."* Steel industry leaders credited the 50% steel tariff with "$47 billion in announced and underway investment." [NTD Evening News](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSBVs3EFLLdIRYzHR-2B4ma6aQ8-2Fqi9bMYCM12Z8ZW3vgVDDCBoXIV18Wp-2Fhp1mVTh7NxpRWjHjmehE554T2r12J9bhzCocW1tIkD2StI9m35Q-3D-3DDLDy_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcuN-2BMY14vdnF44jtS10O16GRVAzNQuRjjuSyhdWKQmQAq-2BVIievPX-2BLdTkU9kg38Ge0a70vZ5ecGxxNur6is7icTMfJZwbKJrJ4L-2BP7mDy5muPPH8log4BJXpjWFDoNKUM5T2hP0PPs2Hcq-2B2o8Wb3c-3D)
* *Section 301 tariffs.* On ChinaTalk, a trade litigator argued that the administration's use of Section 301 tariffs on 60 jurisdictions, covering 99% of US trade, is a break from how the law has historically been used. He said the Court of International Trade panel seemed skeptical. [ChinaTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjEPrghgKCL9-2FEWxXFZigoW8fwINSbThsLwP1FPt26bQO7FDzW2QE42XeweQtLTUrSYYggtqByckcJPw6l5rF3LmypGAS-2FvtscrOTw3haq0EQ-3D-3DnURf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcqr0itlHHImC64013wXOXXihKoo-2B52RBw84LNmXKRWbnYWeFsmacwmEtbTkerR-2FG4vwHcIjOKRXPIZd2MAl6BqBkh-2BMhr2vgnpcLhoankfm6zJC3S-2BFqpwShtmM6WY5B-2BRfm-2FSV-2B2ks-2BtYD9grnie9k-3D)
* *The rare earth deadline.* On POLITICO Energy, reporter Hannah Northey explained the January 1 rule that bars defense contractors from selling the Pentagon equipment containing Chinese-sourced tungsten, tantalum or rare earth magnets. The Aerospace Industries Association (representing Northrop Grumman, Boeing, General Dynamics and RTX) says the US "lacks a mining and processing industry" for aerospace-grade minerals, that supply chains can't be traced "within four months," and that cutting back waivers would hurt "warfighter readiness." Trump also acknowledged munition stocks "are a little bit lower because of the Iran war." Northey's sources expect waivers to be granted anyway. She noted the Trump–Xi rare-earth truce runs only through January. [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhmDN6Nt1vpsqNzmMpc5kgsIoIbNqVy54GiKrSSPSFndPtRz0Tpbp2xg1gFJEE0Tn1nLnzzQ7X-2B1N-2FMBuHfJ3XV6mNQuA2Xg25YhiLNyF72-2Bw-3D-3Dwh2i_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcm5k-2BXCkv1DHQjLSTjMBvuG37Z76fglfk00lfnAUG6vlBYHInZFbIAJQs-2FY9QT6LLpCxUOvLYMj6YRDd8kVAFgbMUrWBzKmdTHhU22vjkmNMTA742aZDt-2FvWOCFuBbxtN6c-2FmV-2FK59T-2F-2FfWslaVKyuU-3D)
* *Tungsten.* On Energy Transition Solutions, a Guardian Metals executive said China controls 84% of tungsten mine supply. Since China's early-2025 export ban, prices have risen about 10x to roughly $3,000 per metric ton unit, and some US manufacturing that depends on tungsten for defense, aerospace and cutting tools is shutting down. [Energy Transition Solutions](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjC-2FioaQDZhx3Gb3ktHfgU9-2FNg7YRtnI05Nm6IW7M8HY5IxdB-2Ba0tG-2FCZhPQMK2kNolai5uxffVG5iasswtuocmvEQv1tvapn-2FHwQeXkLnk-2FA-3D-3DoPJM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcktwGZR6tpJSanRSSa21EFWiC3ClB-2FF4uE3KsSbzKxK6Qm8GgYC0-2BHBN73PVfUBx-2BEmpKWjQRDmTLk40dRr8F8hf7kM6NnTGmwGhE5vVB9-2Fyudf9oUXAccola8UlcIfSwFs762N8ZAiZlcni-2B8sIf2o-3D)

### 6. Data centers continue to drive electrical, HVAC and power equipment demand

* *Caterpillar.* On The Energy Pipeline, Caterpillar Oil & Gas emissions manager Eric Fierson explained why CAT's gas engine and compression business is so busy: *"there's just not enough electric power right now to operate all of these data centers... In many cases, we're basically, you know, doing behind the meter... they're building power plants with our engines to operate those data centers."* [The Energy Pipeline](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi2bnYgSQ8sfMddq4fnKftlgOdxMimbhX7vtlv4uBq1fflaI1MTguKLVcuHXNH9ZFQPuHDxrUbQALflY6lUDrb-2BLMjIkZ9edfh9V1-2BD6Pw4dw-3D-3DM8uo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcriLwDR5AglexmRIaTHpBrfgyx1WeSRe-2BSR0JMGfxTVx9QJkldK4UV3RSHqKnHZw4lB8hI5qWWzlqWO5mcVa8jhvpGcRLkDiAk8nsbwY1EcvuG88zXl470ic-2FJW7tJrTmtd3iQgSxSABqhwJEYCxQko-3D)
* *Eaton and Trane.* On Cool Air, Hot Takes, Eaton's Adrian Hildebrand, a 22-year Navy nuclear submarine veteran, described a joint reference design between Eaton, Trane and NVIDIA. The idea is to build data center cooling and power systems in a factory and "bolt together in the field." His prediction: small modular reactors will power data centers within "two to three years." [Cool Air, Hot Takes](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgneu45fdANCYEtNJHNJhJQdT0q6WXjdBMTCwy-2BeXHRsKXdKtw5s2MxCJiecW9CT-2BjklRsNIaH3q-2BUASpEXjU5kR01oVmfI5egj-2FunlLhvUwQ-3D-3Dw5qG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcuSZlkVfUW9-2Fv1RSvq-2BzxWFtipdgkIpCLuwfXWZwRCkKy6cHzbMqjVK5iO2kLrvi8755orWCOtxXH2fEpT5y0-2BBl3xdtoPiXr6t-2FHrU5Op8XIHeY81rFgtyc8J9wgeJ-2FGfx5DXTLij0ssI2G9slDq-2FY-3D)
* *Distributors.* On The Wholesale Change Show, the hosts called data centers "the holy grail" behind distributor deals: Rexel's $1.4 billion purchase of GCC, plus Grainger and others citing data-center demand for maintenance and repair supplies. [The Wholesale Change Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0KTBuFLW-2Btc-2BRi6VSYmy1tnWriQPXJVzhE-2FE-2FSKanT1luwPFAcXbdYD1CiV9N-2BUHpdH4NoXfdreSwSGsmyBBGI6fpU27VI7Wlx1hcX5URJg-3D-3D5Nja_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlch-2F1iEfD1EUsOZFhFJ2NchoOU53UnkU-2FOcLZ8qbXUyRvflUYlRgsdUW1qgrkZ1NyAiKaerQbIKVlG8xIBTMqXT2F1TTFObEYn4s4fPc5SMsAcMBc68nD6rEK6ejXzwN-2F4JxNrMeLJN7KFU1PG7umvQ8-3D)

### 7. Aerospace: plenty of orders, not enough suppliers

On The Gstaad Guy Podcast, Bombardier CEO Éric Martel said:

*"The entire aerospace industry is booming... the big giants like Airbus, Boeing, they all want to build more airplane. They have almost a decade of backlog ahead of them and we're the same... We're all pulling on the same supplier at the end of the day... when you buy castings, as an example for an engine or you buy blades for the fan... the capability of building major structures is limited in the world."* [The Gstaad Guy Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj93Qtr8CzvGPdgAoH32x-2FlzFGihjuUxb93XuxNH4ea3-2FonVJVJawnQkAwDVrqSiTSVplgKjQ7dv1DZH5ziy9DbuEh-2F4Bnv8qVR-2FXSKsOVsXQ-3D-3DjDyv_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlctUhO3cjsXSzZHv403xYbyv7LeJMHgsxvHVKHfeI0btIAcjmSjomvZ6MWWm-2Bh0-2BBFphmgb4ZaHtCT-2Bm1L-2F-2BQHyXIAUBkYZp0fp-2B3pUMMQKQqD9OaP-2FrA1feRG-2FSPhzwYN2Pbr01WPiiJKzJttYfz6Sk-3D)

This lines up with Aviation Week's cargo episode. Airlines are keeping old passenger jets in service because they can't get new ones, so fewer old jets are available to convert into freighters. That makes the timing of Boeing's 777-8F and Airbus's A350F "couldn't be better." [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgUYkREdQnUTMoYaFFNn0qp3q7sO6ct-2FNugzALLwQy5wwv8waQAt9Y9YvaCXU-2B39hPYJLsuBlwHO8U6YjbvHXc88JnsLTgodxrrJJF6lqdrSw-3D-3DK25q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcgimUHecmmCTLfX-2B-2BzAl2rnVOVrVJOEBGk73Wg1ttYvMku7PUZY8p51rjutDcHx-2BJXQu3zFBJJooQi7AgqvXXVtd9O8KYjCxY77-2FFes3KupKNRi4WMv1H8ykwbchqeE7GUd1rUuJaaxzFT512HEuk8g-3D)

---

## Section 2: Active debates

### Has trucking hit bottom?

* *Bull:* Covenant Logistics CEO David Parker, on FreightWaves Today (Sept. 29), described the market as close to "Goldilocks," with capacity leaving the market. Covenant has enough momentum this year to require mid-80s operating ratios on its team-driver business, meaning costs of about 85 cents per dollar of revenue. *"It's really this year that you start saying, we've got some wind to our back."* [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgnBv5i-2BsW2t8sYgO3ePUefPkLQa6VrkhViZxbED2Gdnfdv-2BSDQRS8upbTIBRKXG-2BoJsEwMIX1b3lM-2FSni3fWY6A-3D-3DhkGH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlck8EdKa4QKMMqRxWzLMBAwx9ZQlFBOrhSMz3coTqjbua-2BAeR06fppctPHJR72FSSJvBQJesyPp-2BJl-2FS7Xsm2QYx5v-2B25nvjelmexTwOrM0xdk8eNC8Q9L-2FVuHcfmF8fveHHTA9sqD4bLVETCZ62cju8-3D)
* *Bear:* The Brake Check episode was titled "Is trucking finally at the bottom? Not so fast." The guest argued that carriers not running at least a 92 operating ratio (about an 8% margin) are "probably not earning your cost of capital." He said higher interest rates make trucks and cars more expensive to finance, so "it doesn't look like the freight market is going to expand dramatically anytime soon." He called running out of cash "the ultimate widow maker" for small carriers facing $6.50 diesel. [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjWKaI63LytPv8nSD-2BIRvUj-2BTlYEN-2BUqXM6UQe-2Fojixc1260LmOZc6faySK6HoGVTWWhHfB-2F7emm5GIjtWP-2BpxubZylNJ15yf43Mx6YHsUF8A-3D-3DfWkR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlciwrCtMBlwxZ9YKqwwRFVFHSLdX3r8ZBaipbp8MipR6bWKyUtjoQTUOvEvA5GlAkbh9yvUPFEZfjZ4dtWZjjh9FncG-2F0ndCZz8QJiC9NlA1-2Ff-2Fc-2FjSRBtq0W5YTl8jEa5pf5TIKVXZ4I8syB52CSKWI-3D)
* *Disputed numbers:* FreightWaves put truckers' contract-load rejections at about 14%. Freightonomics cited 11% and pointed out that shipper tender volumes "dropped sharply recently in a chaotic pattern." They called diesel "a demand destructor." [Freightonomics](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiUuTpiKEUO0xfhIP-2Bt6DmF3ac55y1yQYFAxzADy3jBGHoQzkwjHA7CGyTQ9Iv0JmkotEjeuztTlSi5k2iaMONzxy575DfaHGl-2Bx56qLmiUjQ-3D-3Dhf0D_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcjLzf7fmIO3MiWPH-2B8ejYu6tPG6-2FAROeH7amoJYEmt1Xp-2B1SBJB5VTgp-2F7ffV5MZMMiVCXQAxR8GQie8f76L5oKkRyN1g534Qb-2Be8eN-2Fn0utegyGVr7OBIFJrg5658rwhBRx6iEvstN-2F4YixzfthRcE-3D)

### Is the diesel spike temporary or structural?

* *Temporary:* A commodity strategist on Wealthion compared it to 2008, when $4 gasoline fell to $2 by year-end. He expects political pressure to settle the Iran conflict before the midterms. [Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhsg0Nk12qqvVsaH-2B4hY0Cf8eK1iYn5-2FeL08N2Z5lNv7BikATayFI4UXB0bgpRrQzJihSMe7jfwrKfUwHJBWhj3qjtQBt1TP6PUsppe34ATXQ-3D-3D6nxT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrQgcC043KEerTsktOBcc5GP9zO0CsPpuzJe5lZCQwfoJoJHL20ck-2FwqfuZ0qEspDgmVPPcpiKqrVAPgh9ji4S0BsgpFL4uP8UvS3SYNFJDEct785bEvQbSj7jTf-2FGJFs8nlXaTOullim4kAmz-2F-2BcyI-3D)
* *Structural:* On Commodity Week, Garrett Hawkins warned diesel could stay high through the end of 2027 or 2028 if the Middle East situation persists. [Commodity Week](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjuqsRHN39u7wsxYgVCeJiDTSrrJy8-2Fz2BCV3v1TYKUPVg-2FhmY2DOFUwr7rGUCCJiyh-2BU9P86aDm-2BVeXJuoPcrpsK7kd9px0w-2F7khYb3ZO-2BPw-3D-3DmlDe_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcuL3-2FFDXMrzqcwI9j9SQC7cxdN-2F4e33uvQ3CzFYYTmpQK8ZndO6Wz6PUrpXz9VLZQ3f-2FjVFANygFdM2zHtlf4MuqGYphe70wOEEpAY6jEc3fAzBQmEsZ6Px0VnHP5Ca5Eo1QKQ118WlUOBV-2BIq-2Ba37s-3D) On Excess Returns, a guest said there is no near-term relief "regardless of ceasefire outcomes," because diesel inventories are low heading into heating-oil season. [Excess Returns](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjBlYAh1Xwq-2BWosVD7RRFb8S23aLhYwEtNLSIpeLJXWzOyJLIdG6zI709UmNq8-2BlxCAzQXsFCrxJEM7Kv-2BZmu3CFOgaapKcySbhCc1YAUauZA-3D-3D8qT5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcu6g9Hkt-2Bi6ZyKUrETq-2B7Iag-2BtolccG2uV67Y2Kt4Z5PAkjHG0o4h5iD3UChKZ5-2B4hlaAWLI2-2FfQE5pDt8usKWduDrOJHwIotk9jxd6Sbh0WNWwwrCyZSGVaRV0cC1XyLowaHHQInDMbQAz83F3GhP0-3D)
* *On a diesel export ban:* Big Digital Energy's hosts, GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan on The Exchange, and Chris Whalen on The Julia La Roche Show all argued a ban would backfire. [Big Digital Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiwiIYCzQ5h8i7JH-2FIQtFZsQ03OdfUOn9F1SfODbU0ho6RyUQDX2rxGsSwzKXu5IoNntg7-2BYr6MDoeiaUUVzn3oOMGD-2BFMqMsVbSxLxwfErKw-3D-3DdTFL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlck2t03ixpZhDGgw3UQVaLedRc-2BtI3TsTolFvpEz9YLinPsPHaM3NaXnG1zw2wYUnhJpjw8kuh1tSrqpl5EMsXy6Q3nCRHNKt-2BgRzrHR4II1jKMmStBCCOhvYOFc-2FVNvxHuYc3Wyz0FLXpGYN5lcDeeU-3D) [The Exchange](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh7p22o8HeHwl1LWYoSZeC90V2Il-2B3ONTDTP64znv6YIJPWUBe1aIK6nudug8n5DQmOGkUSPFUzQUxoaun8gqZnMz2PMFBO2pb8TjxBDLRIxA-3D-3DHLbt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcseidQv4AUZX5bXy00nenX5PbaryeoufbKjkxURuufm0S9mKRnBxfHB1Vxz-2FT6zA9aqsAtTIrTxZKbdhoVVTuLljnVdO4pdYUwq4OkMESDjaXgpSbNVt-2F5psi-2B4Qdo0Ipv1B43SHDRP782N01VG-2BFAo-3D) [The Julia La Roche Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOibjAwXQhch079wl8BwiETPYyA1NMr5G5KMGeXUFJibnRd1nlFfi1iQyl2iN5TijA2eADL5vVEDeS1nW407U28TsQ-2BLAqb61xsoKcmwBMXtyQ-3D-3DXKxK_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcvvfjgYoRA4eFGoQwzZgfqBo2kmXCYmwljkpWZq7nFhbsSdX4ehvBeIuxydcz-2BPLPr9CeoxIZ2A6U5mYOplFAkvA4ETqUJRY3ZVwm5Cb9e-2B9an3P2SFe3YidDU0RjxpwzTH2QGopqqQaUMm0xcnPUMc-3D)

### Tariffs: reshoring engine or a drag on margins?

* *Pro:* Lutnick and steel industry leaders credit tariffs for $47 billion in steel investment and the Iowa mill. [NTD Evening News](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgSBVs3EFLLdIRYzHR-2B4ma6aQ8-2Fqi9bMYCM12Z8ZW3vgVDDCBoXIV18Wp-2Fhp1mVTh7NxpRWjHjmehE554T2r12J9bhzCocW1tIkD2StI9m35Q-3D-3Du2jM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcqZr1UV93z1J9JfViAZFp6z7nhv7P2Z2qnHvQkT8Of4JuoMDBoUnQLNR8vF5FU-2BK4dewEiy-2BBZM-2BN4x5-2BfXsaL06jnlzttQsl600FeEu8wPzK-2BicuYn1RoOB6it32hxWg07-2BU6ohaxq4003CUmfrFcY-3D)
* *Con:* Peter Schiff said the August trade deficit of $132.6 billion, the fourth worst on record, shows the tariffs "failed." [The Peter Schiff Show Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjxAtRhUmghFV9sKo5h7otuS27CuMi-2BjTKYl1nWpQKjTMWeW3Hga689qD1DfUQpjTsvB2TPMu8ngT4RsV2hhlyvdFyk4ihevvZeTyjEHxQ4wQ-3D-3Di0ux_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcsZMLuB0j14e-2BdZNcYvlFlkfwbrWVsIApDUrSCTYQeNmy4nU9Ah3FlKvnDhLzHAhJeGtrG-2B-2BxKfKEpyTPPAvUhmGnLTF2EmBDy7OpkLKO1jE5076UkGeBmai4WhPrTS2Hgb-2BJQKyDG51b76jJ7RsgKs-3D) ISM respondents described "chaos" from trade policy. [Manufacturing Talk Radio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjvR-2FH-2FFqm-2F6jKmY-2BopTiZHQUGsk-2B311oVIDGdmEFLBZ-2FBZ2ufu-2FRznIsyytDWFajpfxz9Q-2BUj6rHoc5LnZYHb5iiLwxlkZGTWps-2Brth0A4QA-3D-3DA1iC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcjMgnDEyICcki-2F0kSOVhRizoTxIANZg-2Bg-2B7cBMz229KuxxhMLnhniF4pFPHjxWRRxKyflp7obMfe4fn3WCoIOyXb7emGZUXC4-2F0-2B67cWmryXpIGNY0mrBFgAG8uCLqGOwP6z-2BzBSP9WM1WW-2FrzoafXA-3D)
* *Labor as a limit:* Ford CEO Jim Farley warned of a skilled-trades shortage of 1.7 million jobs, which he said undermines reshoring plans. [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjEKmUnLWf8rZQFIQdPjy8P0ceGnYictI6pD6d6vgyuM2dhCLSu1Unmq-2Bq-2F1sJKhtceEzcWO7T3alBWevHhie6ORnP-2BmNivBs3dWnZkVGy0vA-3D-3DeMib_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlctpt46ZSKALQwU7GzTGFsICsbI71VTo6Au0-2FO3HQsHpmm2dJe61KLs7-2FedLAzYyzcs14GCoe151Sp9YzzU0aSajgwZdBfgqhC14dAfYXL9EE3HofEH9maAPIfMUgDxH9H3hdVQ93MMysjP37HNDDfC0-3D)
* *Who keeps the tariff rebates:* On Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, David Gordon noted that Acuity Brands received $45 million in tariff rebates and still announced December price increases on its controls segment. His view is that manufacturers will use rebates "to improve margins" rather than pass them on to distributors. [Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjtYbfRT-2BygfutW59px4-2FeCVKYUcDsBRtULtmPPZUdeN3yl-2BzfHVbwe6-2FvHug52cC-2BdJ4Fi-2BSIYz49s-2F5HkDTvwd2jy3gs-2F9fIbAuY79p4BNw-3D-3Dy_qI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcklLC7NWsud1LQK7PoijK-2BB9UQ59KFPMR14MKxgMjmAwgHlBJyJJjMc-2BFUt9Q-2Fbhzxm99IZHixU2C9-2BjwlWFqr6U-2FQ5xahmtSgBH5dZQYW-2BXnvJapRHHOkJNWhMkz-2BDYbdGkEvSwHXp4d3QAio2P8kY-3D)

### How durable is the data center buildout?

* *Skeptic:* On The Wholesale Change Show, one host said "the data center angle is getting tougher to count on." He cited polling showing most adults are uncomfortable with a new data center nearby, and claimed even Texas had moved against new data center development. He still thinks distributors "kind of have to buy into this space." [The Wholesale Change Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0KTBuFLW-2Btc-2BRi6VSYmy1tnWriQPXJVzhE-2FE-2FSKanT1luwPFAcXbdYD1CiV9N-2BUHpdH4NoXfdreSwSGsmyBBGI6fpU27VI7Wlx1hcX5URJg-3D-3Degud_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcqykEJl1eS2Vpqd9XXaGmcqm8j4FkWiR-2B66auFBqOo2oVaf0ee1TSOpe4s7DgURS4Rpcf-2BQcYPFjrLHb1EewWGMKgAMHS6ZzR6fsuJLPZ7foKvGmPXeM6S6p3kYqIC-2FpMqYNuB-2F5BXXE1Gsro7B96pQ-3D)
* *Bull:* The All-In hosts called the backlash an "anti-data center witch hunt" and said "the precursor for data centers is power generation." [All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgKIafiDRFtPHu50SdvLri4ZM30kMqYokXyiTnXl6NvUDf1D9v25gp9WkLmLDXqUdjJ9syWwIgdurQF5-2BhrDpguDIvIokT7aUWui81cNkaxxg-3D-3D-sJZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcl7UbsczF6cCziy3ysCWImMRb3p-2BWHdJB7QlnkSCDElk0Q7jRG0d1aWQJL3g23T2xPVcS8BcyQswTpd9yAaC22kWtyOh5uE5sd2Ffv3ugH36fCJtF2CNhk1HXvVUlg0lUrF8SnRgeOe1tlhEzNmkb5A-3D) Off The Wall's hosts called AI-debt fears "overblown, a little bit doom and gloomy." [Off The Wall](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiw4bKBlWiSt8hxTnpTQObIZhJD4-2Fq5KG-2BqC4klJHP24nmv6iTVdst0SGqNnGgVssk8BIHNnW30KboaV4ISuGOr4BeLzCCZJUiU7plhYNmGcg-3D-3D-aGS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlctYDT0kKt7R-2FfmPr9bUm2Chyan7yEMKNysSd3ZK7ucn1ZF1PuTPDEF3Ylk9ctqwx0mDDg8yrrEZl8i4XM3vlhOKkBftB5v91z3t9ybQ8dtvQ4br4UZrS4hFwMU28utXoayLG-2F4zU14NzVXmYv2fKT0Y-3D)
* *Is GDP being propped up by data centers?* Freightonomics raised that "conspiracy theory" but concluded "it is not an entire AI data center story," pointing to strong rail carloads. [Freightonomics](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiUuTpiKEUO0xfhIP-2Bt6DmF3ac55y1yQYFAxzADy3jBGHoQzkwjHA7CGyTQ9Iv0JmkotEjeuztTlSi5k2iaMONzxy575DfaHGl-2Bx56qLmiUjQ-3D-3DF04b_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcoWdfC5nX2BWR-2BBNjUXFgqA5xaqK-2BuCTYV3pKpskZjwpofe0Uz9Hub70xP25ifNaqXCI6VxzPVv92D4hQshBJC3MP0Hsf3tPV1YKGxrw-2FyHG7w9WfSsnopyhYQFSfBCBjFEVqkBlQIlTibuPD8Y6gbM-3D)

### Can Boeing execute two fighter programs at once?

Aviation Week's panel noted that the Air Force's Gen. Dale White had publicly warned against distracting Boeing from the F-47. The panel debated whether the subdued F/A-XX announcement means weaker White House commitment, and said Congress "had to prod and prod and prod the Pentagon to get to this point." [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj09RnYJfgHm6c9QYu2VewfWzqQrLxEgCqGnSjJgsNEdQNMO9S0gH2-2BVdAX4-2BJVitKVMBK-2FbS4YxFiksTw-2FQgbxNWb0YiCGsogXZvvwwyunfA-3D-3DfqNc_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcugeofABKTwKA2eO8w3EEqz1Z7dsz9LHYXQ8Z2mdRVj2GVEP7wA-2B4R9WRI2PQLbnUYVRBe28N2HpUdI-2BvwA24EKMN2LL6OVIFgT8J9ibtmeO0HRo9tsctUU46o7K-2BM0iflF9prLKzEYdp97MC-2BUewuo-3D)

### Rare earths: enforce the deadline or grant waivers?

Defense contractors want waivers. Rare earth producers, represented by MP Materials lobbyist Jeff Green, argue the deadline "has been coming up for years" and that contractors shouldn't get an extension without showing real action. [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhmDN6Nt1vpsqNzmMpc5kgsIoIbNqVy54GiKrSSPSFndPtRz0Tpbp2xg1gFJEE0Tn1nLnzzQ7X-2B1N-2FMBuHfJ3XV6mNQuA2Xg25YhiLNyF72-2Bw-3D-3D8GmG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcu8cd-2B1CSY6-2FQs9TIs-2Ff8VIn08ryj57rI8XnWs7-2B0GRMaCTS-2BC1EiP3DqNkScZFfRDHwpLqJ4i3FpS0K3ZRwk8Hs1xNMUXhTGZWC2t2BXfwoui8f-2BLW5jPN9re-2B0G6PEcfePro6-2Fx-2F6aWWv-2BwUhciA4-3D)

### Is the freight-broker model broken?

Six motor carriers have filed a RICO (racketeering) suit against C.H. Robinson and TQL.

* *Bear:* On WHAT THE TRUCK?!?, Mike said *"the broker as we know it is dead."* [WHAT THE TRUCK?!?](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOguc2sdtmkFze8WUwSTu-2Fm3qgb8XSYVBrGWgUB3HAMI0PCR17vJKKwr04v6ClMvptbsEqy-2FfDx9g5dJZSSVkrfPwTrcjQ3i-2FjBWt-2BpfpSoVdg-3D-3DAfcG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcoFUJAnoxLmlywDqqPgB7t3135Vfbt3v7v7kNJe9mkHZLYR1r-2BdzChAraVjvA7UbY-2FNPYzwhlfn3EsTPgRJS-2Bp-2BBrXbk4m0lFkNVS-2Fu-2BHnInYuT18nQM263qwy1kUSKxEvDkXNbJ0zg4eIZYUn5yESU-3D)
* *Skeptic of the suit:* On Freight Expectations, Matt doubted the case's merits and expects a motion to dismiss. He argued: *"You will never see Werner or Knight-Swift or J.B. Hunt say, we can't compete because it's too expensive."* [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg7zaGidn7ZNOq25uY0s5t6JLigEOFjAysYCqlAJMCjNqD1N-2B-2FU7mV1mVbKT-2FZhMED3aOaFufszCq6fMeXtTLALHHsbLLD-2BwkJSdrQAweWrIQ-3D-3D6Kh5_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrifvoENrr6TtLHRxAwGDYDw02EzX-2FJJrLS8djll8ercw16afjd7ctgfgWzP9-2FiJlnZDDp3l85umZ8cBskip5l8ncoX5Hocpym0UxLpRFsB5N8fv-2FZpkNb7at0Zl4jq0icqK5XlagQuEe81EYpR3GZE-3D)

---

## Section 3: Stocks mentioned

*$BA - Boeing* | Mixed: bullish on contract wins, bearish on execution

* *Episode:* "Breaking Down Boeing's Big F/A‑XX Win," Aviation Week's Check 6, Sept. 30, 2026
* *Speakers:* Robert Wall (host), Brian Everstein, Steve Trimble, Graham Warwick
* *Angle:* Boeing won the $20 billion F/A-XX program and now holds both sixth-generation fighters. The risk is overload across F-15EX, F-47, MQ-25, T-7, KC-46 and B-52, several of them on fixed-price contracts.
* *Quote:* *"I think that Boeing's in for a very difficult 10, 15 years ahead of it as it tries to get these aircraft going."*
* *Source:* [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj09RnYJfgHm6c9QYu2VewfWzqQrLxEgCqGnSjJgsNEdQNMO9S0gH2-2BVdAX4-2BJVitKVMBK-2FbS4YxFiksTw-2FQgbxNWb0YiCGsogXZvvwwyunfA-3D-3DcOX3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcmMTwluCN4KjY0xCS9PKfQio-2BCalvZLocfQhUlO09ZZSnRAolCLoFMr6Nfh3-2B2Mthxga8leSGkRZEKxZQjW1tsS7XZFBJrNFZXLBYLMfiZKfdYMsSNJ7O7rsWQFzYm5UwrVd7u-2Bt8ntGD-2ByLaCSWWq8-3D)
* *Also:* Boeing has 81 firm orders for the 777-8F against 115 for Airbus's A350F. Aviation Week's forecasters still expect a roughly 50/50 split of deliveries over time ("Can Airbus' A350F Upend Boeing In The Air Cargo Market?", Oct. 2). [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgUYkREdQnUTMoYaFFNn0qp3q7sO6ct-2FNugzALLwQy5wwv8waQAt9Y9YvaCXU-2B39hPYJLsuBlwHO8U6YjbvHXc88JnsLTgodxrrJJF6lqdrSw-3D-3DnE4t_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcnK0zy5R4FH7VNkiItjoRaVqee9DnCWHbEOf86sFOLCh2h4IsvIqq64r6HiWUT0YVsBx-2FgK-2B2P4lDW6oWWTP8XNBxZZT1N694waEOAXQsQr8TeM1uzgQjY-2BTYhkdtY8BxaWVkeO3svAjdC2eqAs6OmQ-3D) Boeing rose 3% after avoiding a white-collar strike (Schwab Market Update, Oct. 2). [Schwab Market Update Audio](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjPD5gOr1LqqyqtVfPtjHUtTn0P4M3dhLHatMUDC7QiBMBnuTadPzzTw6u4kBhhGrxX-2BsVkDGf-2FgqlKW7gTQGR4JzZb5KvkPcWVKAS2ve5NGA-3D-3DxC4Z_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcpdgYziGIxRPsS0jfNN4prDEA38sou9vwHQ3UHtK4ww6MFWc-2B-2BS1mIZ06QwkGoPQ0kQKk5VE-2FkG7SKoDZ5-2BTJ9Asw-2B-2BQjGx9ptPsgSQqM2sKz-2F0-2FbautMFSkleCyLTN-2F8-2FJXCnpe2CI-2F9tf91AhE1cU-3D)

*$NOC - Northrop Grumman* | Bearish (lost F/A-XX)

* *Episode:* "Breaking Down Boeing's Big F/A‑XX Win," Aviation Week's Check 6, Sept. 30
* *Speaker:* Brian Everstein
* *Angle:* Northrop lost F/A-XX and issued a non-committal statement saying it "look forward to receiving additional information," which leaves room for a protest. It is also one of the AIA members seeking rare earth waivers (POLITICO Energy, Oct. 2).
* *Source:* [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj09RnYJfgHm6c9QYu2VewfWzqQrLxEgCqGnSjJgsNEdQNMO9S0gH2-2BVdAX4-2BJVitKVMBK-2FbS4YxFiksTw-2FQgbxNWb0YiCGsogXZvvwwyunfA-3D-3Dlvmd_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcmt4XPVXa0BK2Lkhmg-2Bx68GeQIwehiiNQcviNXOucy4amlhuWFsMcDYISSsZ1T5PgpaHevJ-2FGn1dzVE30YoxGD2mRAbiL-2BAU2-2BnyJwUM7FX5k1l-2ByQh0c4N0bff4CjWAyGUbFa-2BFlaizDvrMsbcbNts-3D) | [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhmDN6Nt1vpsqNzmMpc5kgsIoIbNqVy54GiKrSSPSFndPtRz0Tpbp2xg1gFJEE0Tn1nLnzzQ7X-2B1N-2FMBuHfJ3XV6mNQuA2Xg25YhiLNyF72-2Bw-3D-3DZ_yO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlckVOw1OKJLvSTOtyWa-2F0o7TVKBaGblB6iD6-2FXIa0H-2BJ76UFJsyORNg2K1iGQy27zh46plczN6G6RPJLOJibvu0SkbGouG-2Fv6yhd-2FOeMiOA32bL2Mt1oRS9KE259Zh2mJKhiXpgb-2B10ABykK4BgmW6lY-3D)

*$GE - GE Aerospace* | Bullish

* *Episodes:* Aviation Week's Check 6 (Sept. 30); The Investor's Podcast TIP851 (Oct. 4)
* *Speakers:* Aviation Week panel; Kyle Grieve
* *Angle:* GE appears to be the F/A-XX engine supplier, after GE congratulated the Navy and Boeing, the same way it signaled its F-47 role. Grieve: *"GE Aerospace has 27% profit margins in the last six months, just to give you an idea of just how profitable the industry is."*
* *Source:* [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj09RnYJfgHm6c9QYu2VewfWzqQrLxEgCqGnSjJgsNEdQNMO9S0gH2-2BVdAX4-2BJVitKVMBK-2FbS4YxFiksTw-2FQgbxNWb0YiCGsogXZvvwwyunfA-3D-3DzRsr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcld0It9UhmK2kCCaZLCZvLGHwZeCHzZwoOiEdDIf2BG-2F54AIAf-2BZRevXqXjl6uwF0BKOKOGGbDHH-2FJSJxkJv1fbLJq4-2F8XAlrwespiivm4-2FhJFqjGyeNH0LjBMb4PC1Nzh0-2FOkh0RUgcQrdxcbFcUhM-3D) | [The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgtvWytoibzvAeWE6GFFReTnRgE06-2Fz19EfQqO4IxzLY2YnF5tODJmuErXzqeDE6V6CeSxQbOsmqN7ZARw0db-2FSB5Aq5dHZg4PVNuJjyfEaRQ-3D-3DQyqM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlchOit2c3gwqfTyeG4DRj66VfEWUpggQCB3OnyWL6jUTCig3jL-2F5f10TgeRHZ0C2dRyNrkFUzC-2FvKgoD9hyNGP0GheW3Qw6-2FdtWwqxw-2FGnaqPVx-2BBZd88v5AR0d5E5cbXHg-2B2-2F00KTe5H1VNQpmQZwyg-3D)

*$HEI - HEICO* | Bullish on the business, cautious on price

* *Episode:* "TIP851: HEICO Vs. TransDigm: Whose Aerospace Monopoly Is Better?", The Investor's Podcast, Oct. 4, 2026
* *Speakers:* Shawn O'Malley, Kyle Grieve
* *Angle:* HEICO sells FAA-approved replacement parts priced "30 to 50% below the OEM." It has about 18% margins, net leverage of about 1.6x (net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA) and roughly 19% insider ownership. It trades at about 30x EV/EBITDA, a measure of company value relative to cash earnings. Grieve values it at about $550, or about $354 after his bull/bear cases and a 20% margin of safety, which implies only about an 8% return against his 12% hurdle.
* *Quotes:* O'Malley: *"When your pitch to customers is the same quality at a much lower price, they're going to be very happy to keep buying from you."* Grieve: *"If the price drops another 10%, 20%, I could see myself getting really interested in adding shares. I just can't justify buying it at today's valuation."*
* *Source:* [The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgtvWytoibzvAeWE6GFFReTnRgE06-2Fz19EfQqO4IxzLY2YnF5tODJmuErXzqeDE6V6CeSxQbOsmqN7ZARw0db-2FSB5Aq5dHZg4PVNuJjyfEaRQ-3D-3D66d0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcvQXlivanE-2F9-2B1Em-2Ff64AN3dBaTmtEfz6FI-2FX4xzcMWTuICkhj-2BMADLx96zCf34tXSjK96DTqwpqb-2FUvUpcbr6ePqZYGaMMl8TcdGlk6u-2B1A-2FgVRajZ52IODyM-2BWVlSBVKHcIqjWvOx5wkwYvp5cxOA-3D)

*$TDG - TransDigm* | Mixed: cheaper, with more pricing power but more regulatory risk

* *Episode:* TIP851, The Investor's Podcast, Oct. 4
* *Speakers:* Shawn O'Malley, Kyle Grieve
* *Angle:* TransDigm is a sole-source parts supplier that pushes prices hard. It has about 21% margins and about 5.8x net leverage, and trades at about 18x EV/EBITDA. A colleague's intrinsic value estimate of about $1,100 is "about exactly where the stock is trading today." The business has kept growing while the share price stayed flat. O'Malley said the model is "clearly more lucrative per part" but "a bit predatory in some ways and more likely to attract regulatory scrutiny."
* *Quote:* O'Malley: *"Some people might call it price gouging."*
* *Source:* [The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgtvWytoibzvAeWE6GFFReTnRgE06-2Fz19EfQqO4IxzLY2YnF5tODJmuErXzqeDE6V6CeSxQbOsmqN7ZARw0db-2FSB5Aq5dHZg4PVNuJjyfEaRQ-3D-3D0Kaa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlckKJTHiFahFT2e4pTXXFVEZZmJAYUTQSor-2FeBkeOWrpBofDdRwR0om-2Bh2g-2FxESp3DBYI5VWZEDGEIbwCyMNxV-2BfNlA896MjBhf2Q2y9KcYEQYsy1IoCXtNMUKvipknlZ6T7mm7SX210RCdE3exWymus-3D)

*$LMT - Lockheed Martin* | Neutral to slightly bearish

* *Episode:* Aviation Week's Check 6, Sept. 30
* *Speaker:* Brian Everstein
* *Angle:* The F/A-XX delay is putting "a lot more pressure on Lockheed's F-35 to deliver better, to perform better for naval aviation." Hello Longhorn (Sept. 28) discussed F-35 design data leaking through weak cybersecurity at small subcontractors, which is driving new certification requirements for suppliers by November 2026.
* *Source:* [Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj09RnYJfgHm6c9QYu2VewfWzqQrLxEgCqGnSjJgsNEdQNMO9S0gH2-2BVdAX4-2BJVitKVMBK-2FbS4YxFiksTw-2FQgbxNWb0YiCGsogXZvvwwyunfA-3D-3D0fz2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcj-2BG7TAAA352ZIkQ9zHD5lgdJETwgAlKzhQPhXc0-2BKcHxS5h-2BAJ9-2FrZjD2baCBtMcb5e-2BMcGng1asEs9QjIGJNLeFxfXTcaVhmupXUHNieuZ7M1t4MQYm7ilnSPVd2qJ-2Bh83XJBkPIImHUYxumLANiE-3D) | [Hello Longhorn](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi78WGVd7EZVMdnliCJaky0sFhDD9-2FHqK3SbRjGYj9NKuBnc-2BAwawfEKHjyVCYQ-2BFz-2FRguPYTj1gzj8I91IfSKs150oTpwnqLqGfNPQ5HP8Zg-3D-3DXlW2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlctEC7wwjGp6U9Cdiqa0Hgvl6-2BMjkfOFNnVDcjzF41f0ErZr-2BTJ7btA8wkAQxnFN8pJmLhH6rCzin7bkuWTADv-2ByfZLkRUZpphvBBtYqPD-2B49LTg7vxQBMu1sGjSr5-2B76d6K-2F328yYj-2BrQ79q1-2FdJb7Y-3D)

*$GD - General Dynamics / $RTX - RTX* | Risk flag

* *Episode:* "Trump's military has a China problem. What will he do?", POLITICO Energy, Oct. 2
* *Speaker:* Hannah Northey (POLITICO), describing the Aerospace Industries Association's position
* *Angle:* Through the AIA, both companies say they can't meet the January 1 ban on Chinese rare earths, tungsten and tantalum. Sources expect waivers. Low munition stocks after the Iran war add urgency.
* *Quote:* AIA said curbing waivers would affect *"warfighter readiness."*
* *Source:* [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhmDN6Nt1vpsqNzmMpc5kgsIoIbNqVy54GiKrSSPSFndPtRz0Tpbp2xg1gFJEE0Tn1nLnzzQ7X-2B1N-2FMBuHfJ3XV6mNQuA2Xg25YhiLNyF72-2Bw-3D-3Dhxn-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcnni-2F9u-2B-2BcZcgOouxO7OPEG6gGy-2FAJmhWqRTkjkufrRR4F30e24PTSqXOCwY1nVqaeuYY-2FEbgxzeOx-2B3mcMeeocJnlL0jP3fM7UsrEv6PXy-2BIx2Yf0rjD43fykVasijskXdbZjA1jlOcqu1mXA-2FdamE-3D)

*$HON - Honeywell* | Bearish

* *Episode:* "Bond Market Flips to 'Higher for Longer'", InvestTalk, Sept. 30
* *Speaker:* Justin Klein (KPP Financial), answering a listener who said both Honeywell and the spun-off aerospace shares have lagged since the split
* *Angle:* He noted $4 billion of free cash flow on a $66 billion market cap, but too much debt and not cheap on EV/EBITDA.
* *Quote:* *"I think there's just better within the space... It's not particularly cheap, actually, the more that I look at it. And so it doesn't make sense to be adding more money at these levels."*
* *Source:* [InvestTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjQi-2Fx40qt9QkUBaNJ-2BslmCicx38pqOrXbTlyq15t4iSJCVS12RxbOmkRVdfr7esnc5MS-2FfoUj7Eob7uIcwgW61owMXcMOmxwdv-2BGiilch1dg-3D-3D10gp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcirystCoDC6SUlk0sOYqMA3QSXchBScdjGWcdGOKrRZBRUlcDc3ptjVxLnJaxIux3eJeYzH07lK3XNSpTc4CfEjwIQCuAw5D17eT0-2FKYA4T8KN8WI0gXhpiSokbo8ypN28KgmPgTY3vR8ql-2FJSUZuGs-3D)

*$CAT - Caterpillar* | Bullish

* *Episodes:* The Energy Pipeline Ep. 138 (Sept. 30); Equity Mates (Sept. 30)
* *Speakers:* Eric Fierson (Caterpillar Oil & Gas); Equity Mates hosts
* *Angle:* Data centers are using CAT gas engines for backup and for full on-site power plants, which in turn drives demand for gas compression. Equity Mates listed Caterpillar among its community portfolio's biggest winners, up 18% this year.
* *Quote:* Fierson: *"They're building power plants with our engines to operate those data centers."*
* *Source:* [The Energy Pipeline](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi2bnYgSQ8sfMddq4fnKftlgOdxMimbhX7vtlv4uBq1fflaI1MTguKLVcuHXNH9ZFQPuHDxrUbQALflY6lUDrb-2BLMjIkZ9edfh9V1-2BD6Pw4dw-3D-3D6T3t_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcmh3DbKL2J3Dd6i-2FYE00EYpz2L7EAvG-2BEsB9z8NLA5yQS9YYNbjzMGuOk-2FUwojBTNwWW-2BbW0zW2HnLylFdzLnU1OpV9XS972cT2lo-2Fef7XhibQGuI1j3tm7dE9LjiI90UOILkvjeEpTenhkBeN-2BrECE-3D) | [Equity Mates Investing Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjdd0wNZ8FoLNZ1LIxJ0NLe5uhEEn7k-2FjnRc-2FOHyxpE4srtapGrtvZ-2Bvui4IpNyQdq-2FEoO1UAQOmS3NzTdKEUWW9oldQKeA1CWPDi8tlYuK1g-3D-3DI7Em_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrKVdL-2B5GUD3tBV2j3qPJltiPPfO3XJshVYo2pqsAN80OaDzYMeiWxxm1QkaqqY4algVyVdlsUO7u-2FjwCuuNHksASc4FGPZp-2Ftpcf2gJv-2FqVlP5eyzFtjkU7nxOEx2R4A-2F-2BBirZz41luxH6yZzv9e-2FA-3D)

*$CMI - Cummins* | Cautiously bullish

* *Episode:* "Cummins (CMI): Record Quarter, Falling Stock - What Wall Street Sees," The Investing for Beginners Podcast, Sept. 28
* *Speakers:* Andrew (host) and co-host
* *Angle:* Cummins reported record Q2 revenue of $9.46 billion, but the stock has fallen from over $700 in June to about $500 as tariffs and supplier inflation squeeze margins. The hosts see the power systems segment, now its most profitable, as the growth driver.
* *Quotes:* Andrew: *"I am a teenage bull... I think they have long-term good things going for them. But I also still think their ceiling is capped."* Co-host: *"I like the baby bull... the price is cheap right now."*
* *Source:* [The Investing for Beginners Podcast - Your Path to Financial Freedom](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg1DWE3eYmfpRjTJdxfQWWkY37F-2F-2FDO4wPyGVTbd1p67FJtvcuNSQ647VoWtp0CbclWdgdLY9iBJewGjweoWGXGq55zoWsHQ8jhBNNov6-2BsQA-3D-3Dix79_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcoY6jlUlFByqVTHahuxPD6Kp8y9qGjwVfTvZPaZD6SmBHAJltwkEQ6hplA8uhbAGvqCucmquoKpWBURCd7c3hdMM-2FaMD-2FF4YN2jOzdKXaWhVtYBM8gI1JkC-2BLL-2Fl3Xtm8ulIXi11bBHzl84iHA1wTC0-3D)

*$GEV - GE Vernova* | Mixed

* *Episode:* Equity Mates Investing Podcast, Sept. 30
* *Speaker:* Equity Mates host (community portfolio review)
* *Angle:* GE Vernova is down 12% since the portfolio bought it, one of only two losers this year, but up 8% over the past 30 days.
* *Source:* [Equity Mates Investing Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjdd0wNZ8FoLNZ1LIxJ0NLe5uhEEn7k-2FjnRc-2FOHyxpE4srtapGrtvZ-2Bvui4IpNyQdq-2FEoO1UAQOmS3NzTdKEUWW9oldQKeA1CWPDi8tlYuK1g-3D-3D7JYx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlctJc-2BQ1g7NraufGkNOeyE1Jw3xHaV05DyYi-2FIGyVdv3NqkWKY8gb9t3auIoGUILxWBfK0XeCJSh3oT2l5harFGHASdoYLEKXfqeMwRKnqFy-2FaEpbVRjt80wd87HpAhOthmadJpu6rYXtblU5V-2F9-2BBdE-3D)

*$ETN - Eaton / $TT - Trane Technologies* | Bullish (company view)

* *Episode:* "Submarines, Server Farms, and the Future of AI," Cool Air, Hot Takes, Sept. 29
* *Speaker:* Adrian Hildebrand (principal technical program manager, Eaton)
* *Angle:* Eaton, Trane and NVIDIA are jointly designing factory-built data center power and cooling modules. Eaton is moving into DC power and, with Trane, into liquid cooling for high-power GPUs.
* *Quote:* *"A hot take would be that the future of both data center and I think community power is small modular reactors."*
* *Source:* [Cool Air, Hot Takes](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgneu45fdANCYEtNJHNJhJQdT0q6WXjdBMTCwy-2BeXHRsKXdKtw5s2MxCJiecW9CT-2BjklRsNIaH3q-2BUASpEXjU5kR01oVmfI5egj-2FunlLhvUwQ-3D-3DXo28_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlciK6Fti92KNwp8b0ajIQ-2FLZ-2BGgUKnVJioFKvaONWtH9JljHDthhurQarZI77s95Ex30IiBSS7A-2BcwgkST8SfS1M8DGa-2FZ7esbU8zpixvKehWa6MYnLNJEqlS8UrAA5sZcj2y2V6YvdausTzoDU81J74-3D)

*$FIX - Comfort Systems USA* | Bullish

* *Episode:* "September Slumps, Trade Wars, and What's Ahead for Stocks," Off The Wall, Sept. 28
* *Speakers:* Off The Wall hosts (Monument)
* *Angle:* A holding in their growth portfolio. "It's an air conditioning company. But... they're rallying based on the AI data center build out."
* *Source:* [Off The Wall](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiw4bKBlWiSt8hxTnpTQObIZhJD4-2Fq5KG-2BqC4klJHP24nmv6iTVdst0SGqNnGgVssk8BIHNnW30KboaV4ISuGOr4BeLzCCZJUiU7plhYNmGcg-3D-3D4nml_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlco3p8Jxz-2FZzNlY-2BClYtIxc0SjM9nr-2FRN-2BO4lhC7lGj4zt6Fe4uiOYN6f8FTRM6GwxOcW8k9FVlJP-2B6CMITLHkrcjFLZ67Z0TPYO9c4fBd6Z4Ya1R79nT-2BicOYyHeSBVWa-2Bd9A-2FYngVkMkMv0e-2BylFB4-3D)

*$AYI - Acuity* | Margin-positive

* *Episode:* "Why Distributors Need More Than CRM to Grow," Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Oct. 2
* *Speaker:* David Gordon
* *Angle:* Acuity received $45 million in tariff rebates, about 2% of its roughly $2 billion cost of goods, but announced December price increases on controls. Gordon expects the rebates to go to margins rather than to distributors.
* *Source:* [Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjtYbfRT-2BygfutW59px4-2FeCVKYUcDsBRtULtmPPZUdeN3yl-2BzfHVbwe6-2FvHug52cC-2BdJ4Fi-2BSIYz49s-2F5HkDTvwd2jy3gs-2F9fIbAuY79p4BNw-3D-3DcYXf_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlckve-2Bw3SzujKRWQ47zFc-2FUe6Q07Q-2FDkLv91-2Fe-2BpMmutwNwYPfBBNpybCHy03Qjq0OmQrzhNrq4lM864jj9MPk6-2F-2FKSNo-2FoRMapkdJJQWuuVVuzYSQg5BDrEHpROJ7faXYKeC-2FpjSR16bdZWnRhlKu-2FI-3D)

*$FERG - Ferguson / $WSO - Watsco / $GWW - Grainger* | Neutral to positive

* *Episode:* The Wholesale Change Show, Sept. 29
* *Speakers:* Show hosts
* *Angle:* Ferguson and Watsco are consolidating the HVAC distribution business, with Ferguson moving into HVAC and Watsco into plumbing. Watsco does "well over 1/3" of sales digitally. Grainger is citing data-center maintenance and repair demand.
* *Source:* [The Wholesale Change Show](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0KTBuFLW-2Btc-2BRi6VSYmy1tnWriQPXJVzhE-2FE-2FSKanT1luwPFAcXbdYD1CiV9N-2BUHpdH4NoXfdreSwSGsmyBBGI6fpU27VI7Wlx1hcX5URJg-3D-3DWKsg_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcnGY2YEAM8TyOG6DHS3gwsGujvXqlI8Zp0h6NgkUo-2Bo4duB8s4V9tiSn86cuCPj4j9DgZS4Tm6DI3z2Vvh0nvJDzMo6m6r1Sv15l8egxqG8E9GLVMElW4MpGkTYj8ze2xM4KKSRqfys4YaybYJhNpMk-3D)

*$FDX - FedEx / $UPS - UPS* | Mixed: buy-the-dip on valuation

* *Episode:* "FDX vs UPS as Diesel Prices Squeeze Shipper Margins," Schwab Network, Sept. 29
* *Speaker:* Scott Martin (Kingsview Wealth Management)
* *Angle:* Diesel ("what a rocket ship of price diesel has been") and softer demand are squeezing shippers, and FedEx had a rough September. Martin first said there may be reason to "look past the UPS and maybe look towards a FedEx just on valuation." Later he suggested UPS's edge in final-mile delivery means "UPS might be able to take control of... some of the stock performance." His overall view is that selloffs in shippers are a buying opportunity "if things do improve geopolitically."
* *Quote:* *"Investors seem to be selling first and asking questions later, I think that's actually an opportunity to pick up some of these shippers."*
* *Source:* [Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh7oZt21O-2FlfJ0AKbpZkYZhwfSByl-2FTW-2FaY-2F45K5GIaiZzUrOhO4GOcXXRiTHPwLGqQoYiMKcshoBh2CrD9uvzFqtifeGsuoqOnlwcDp4MV4Q-3D-3DHo0i_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlct1jFUi-2Bz66aq-2FNVeVqBLczPTu3RJIULzIndXaHsAY6YyZzik5P6n0J4aJY1gf6tSUFsQQrSd3LE3tKj-2FH05gHGkTNYzjfjRX8yMxM9GMYoZIPDw9NBakVIwmKecGeVnMHx6h89824LlrKFAxdcX8G0-3D)
* *Also:* She Supply Chains (Sept. 28) cited a 23% parcel surcharge increase from FedEx, UPS, Amazon and USPS, driven by early peak-season demand. [She Supply Chains](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhhLyANrKoft2fkXb4gyqDQwqIVxFyKBrphGO703-2BGG-2BzfpXgAO1KURZBH2UU1IkS2sszs7YY7E2HuaI-2F5mciLak13xphTan6594GmHZ52DWA-3D-3DRjl7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlckRucnvkWWpp9t8RqXuOSZyyb-2BmkdFswYRAM3PK3wF7nGiXNr0e5nzHGBnBIn08SC3pPec-2FNR7Q4wzGfkPpbfYrOS8yAMhbDzmNNFSd1c9nux9EsU5Eb-2Bnoq0IpmRgNiYLfnB77kEbYz-2FmvlSKkRxzI-3D)

*$JBHT - J.B. Hunt* | Mixed: strong intermodal demand, limited by drayage

* *Episodes:* FreightWaves Today (Sept. 30); Schwab Network (Sept. 29); The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast (Sept. 29)
* *Speakers:* FreightWaves hosts; Scott Martin; TRUCK YEAH! hosts
* *Angle:* Intermodal volumes are at records, and BNSF says its Quantum service with J.B. Hunt is growing every month at 95%+ on-time. But J.B. Hunt "has been downgraded" partly after management said at an investor conference that growth is limited by drayage capacity. Martin likes it on drawdowns. TRUCK YEAH! recalled J.B. Hunt's CFO calling it a diesel market "out of like fantasy land."
* *Quote:* *"Their growth is limited by as good as they can get in terms of drayage capacity."*
* *Source:* [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg41N-2FNP4eLK1rl0zutbi-2FS5y2Xbo2MLuHbnyjSl0GLmTylH4XTPAi6OrxkHosOrGRvn0mw0uD4iTIpjTKEf5TpaM-2BRgeoB9fSTBkMe6yXdOw-3D-3D-cgF_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrXkbU1b9g15R7c2FcDUnYMkzUkPPaH0XlY4g0qEwRHKRLwckcIIVcIdckesY6x-2FhYUHrOhrclMGs5uYBCXGd06mFmMJSYKIjJ6l6IFpi4IUg0FviSrPfaEbEwYkZFecDfeyoawy2cdmQG41eWjhCRU-3D) | [Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh7oZt21O-2FlfJ0AKbpZkYZhwfSByl-2FTW-2FaY-2F45K5GIaiZzUrOhO4GOcXXRiTHPwLGqQoYiMKcshoBh2CrD9uvzFqtifeGsuoqOnlwcDp4MV4Q-3D-3DWpB-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlchpDQqNhnFAWip4tLlLA1Kyf3c6fkcNCGFnVLFzMtaMYouxnCXprI5Xrx4WDtOw-2BTVV3D5W0ugiQ33-2BRxz9lXtK0DC3dy618ioLYyLO3TeeBCMUJUsUsupgear-2BcFGkpprUioC-2Fh8PmUB8BBDJ4bx20-3D) | [The TRUCK YEAH! Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3oxwO7S5mOaNTPLci7aL021HfKq77vqGe12tgDR31NAPzQkrEfgfD6Uk2fTQK6B9bBtqZdo27Crksy3FvjgAI041B9VctxOo3NE0B6cRO8A-3D-3DEUee_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrpUz79-2Bjl-2F0p-2FPa9G-2B6ZdhtvuZJ3FYBiToTHFicM9v7du-2FU-2FGOH7vvL61ptT51nw1LCJQCDwe-2B-2Bk2Az5Oso6qOC5Pmgkn4tSCNdYsimLlclvMwZBq7IEG3jn3j0xhoMST4UlH1X7A5dzGIDEr16qvQ-3D)

*$CHRW - C.H. Robinson* | Bearish headline risk, with skeptics of the lawsuit

* *Episodes:* WHAT THE TRUCK?!? (Sept. 28); Freight Expectations (Oct. 2); Schwab Network (Sept. 29)
* *Speakers:* Mike (WHAT THE TRUCK?!?); Matt (Freight Expectations); Scott Martin
* *Angle:* Six carriers (Stevens Trucking, Western Flyer Express, D&M Carriers, Bray Miller Trucking, IWX Motor Freight, Christensen Transportation) filed a RICO suit alleging racketeering. C.H. Robinson rejects the allegations. Matt expects a motion to dismiss and doubts the merits. Martin still likes C.H. Robinson on drawdowns.
* *Quote:* Mike: *"The broker as we know it is dead."*
* *Source:* [WHAT THE TRUCK?!?](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOguc2sdtmkFze8WUwSTu-2Fm3qgb8XSYVBrGWgUB3HAMI0PCR17vJKKwr04v6ClMvptbsEqy-2FfDx9g5dJZSSVkrfPwTrcjQ3i-2FjBWt-2BpfpSoVdg-3D-3DDvNJ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrvSeQxNiahXhOzb680NTOSHdysmNMStidOdrhsNNnufHj9s0YC0VSxo6jhx7z0rh2r8nCzVwngQ-2BRupdmzncBelfQf2kokz13cbfyJoEhYBJj4PYS-2BQtTCnkGHNLKWGBE0xV3MwP7CfLiEQurSlbrA-3D) | [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg7zaGidn7ZNOq25uY0s5t6JLigEOFjAysYCqlAJMCjNqD1N-2B-2FU7mV1mVbKT-2FZhMED3aOaFufszCq6fMeXtTLALHHsbLLD-2BwkJSdrQAweWrIQ-3D-3Dj-M4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcq-2Fduh8T8-2BvgepzfGCSBhlBUjMdmwvlOlrE9MtRahj0G9xP-2Fg3-2FovTq89DaKo-2Fc7jW5K-2FbrjHbwkyGIMF1SgvZxfxKKtwlhJZO4tgknD1lc-2FFaXHMYMNU3-2FA7fxWVIGpayP5NPOEZ03ReyOKUVZpAmA-3D) | [Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh7oZt21O-2FlfJ0AKbpZkYZhwfSByl-2FTW-2FaY-2F45K5GIaiZzUrOhO4GOcXXRiTHPwLGqQoYiMKcshoBh2CrD9uvzFqtifeGsuoqOnlwcDp4MV4Q-3D-3DBpDo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcv67PQYympLdDBpks589SFEzSmDMSM2yO4kt3sb0WUUD0CFAzLVELqpKa66nsFqRn5Ech9KHS7VnqWJzn3Nkj6NFWOUYyWlrAV2A6T4yhMVwWrMBgCV41Vqnp1sZEj7l5AXU8EGog7p6ahrJ3GmZMBg-3D)

*$SNDR - Schneider National* | Positive (capacity discipline)

* *Episodes:* FreightWaves Today (Sept. 28); Freightonomics (Oct. 1)
* *Speakers:* Jim Filter (CEO, as relayed by FreightWaves); Freightonomics hosts
* *Angle:* The regulatory crackdown favors carriers with strict safety standards. Freightonomics cited Schneider cutting its approved carrier list "from like 60,000 to... under 20,000."
* *Source:* [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6GO8XWXA-2BLX3AsiqvXk-2BfIpIA9PDhCByyw-2FPvfCvOecidjfO7W0FtFG-2BM5e1SA-2Bkz3cQQPrPJw7jbhHolIK-2BlFaZeYOFZ1g2oSCHm9gKOyg-3D-3DJTLa_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlckPKAPW-2BMfRxjKJGdCTSgov09qsGLMJhmqmn1-2BjrZ1sJ2u1W8jh72eZnXIfy7W1zmzVhuyezrVTG3HaRVH2DzX22GJCzVgZRofbd7HR-2BEbFr3nkjNa3mzm9A9dKV2wcpkA97hXmhwB0U61o2PbP01Tc-3D) | [Freightonomics](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiUuTpiKEUO0xfhIP-2Bt6DmF3ac55y1yQYFAxzADy3jBGHoQzkwjHA7CGyTQ9Iv0JmkotEjeuztTlSi5k2iaMONzxy575DfaHGl-2Bx56qLmiUjQ-3D-3DFM2u_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcjJB4Qp8MXDx6u6OT0y1xqD4VWHw-2FX6UsRX2GucSeOHPa0N5ZlriVmkpC3XwhLxbNobLZFWUCU2cFcFtLMaQwBYq3Q7GJBBtBNDofno92R2CpEQyEYYnjUK34hT1R7oRDOuTbTBL9QSlFehK9zz1MPc-3D)

*$CVLG - Covenant Logistics* | Bullish

* *Episode:* FreightWaves Today, Sept. 29
* *Speaker:* David Parker (CEO, Covenant)
* *Angle:* A ten-year shift away from commodity long-haul freight into chicken hauling (48-mile average trips), expedited team freight for the Department of War and AI data centers, and freight forwarding.
* *Quote:* *"If it's commoditized, I don't want it. If it's just to pick up a load from A and take it to B, I do not want it. The margins are pathetic."*
* *Source:* [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgnBv5i-2BsW2t8sYgO3ePUefPkLQa6VrkhViZxbED2Gdnfdv-2BSDQRS8upbTIBRKXG-2BoJsEwMIX1b3lM-2FSni3fWY6A-3D-3D2IjU_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcjkLfGXKMH9mtuLmLdAMt7d5Ys0jeVngIUEaYGpqXjPtYn8NZh8OJ8ltcFXOj9acfKKf9r9Dydsl57dISwK24hEkJCkD5e-2Fm6K7Ru4DB5DnIKLivgvMF9RTMn2ISwOC80eBAxEuc4PbAMkxJ-2Fj6iGjU-3D)

*$AUR - Aurora Innovation (with $WERN - Werner)* | Mixed

* *Episodes:* FreightWaves Today (Sept. 28); WHAT THE TRUCK?!? (Sept. 28)
* *Angle:* Aurora plans to put many more driverless trucks on the road through a "driver as a service" model, charging carriers 85 cents or more per mile. Its trucks hauling for McLane, Werner and others average more than 225,000 miles a year, over twice a normal truck. WHAT THE TRUCK?!? called the 2030 timeline unrealistic and noted the stock fell about 10% after the announcement.
* *Source:* [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6GO8XWXA-2BLX3AsiqvXk-2BfIpIA9PDhCByyw-2FPvfCvOecidjfO7W0FtFG-2BM5e1SA-2Bkz3cQQPrPJw7jbhHolIK-2BlFaZeYOFZ1g2oSCHm9gKOyg-3D-3D2YMW_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9Tlcoj0gL9s03If0xG-2FWeHRp3ZQcGHk6UAXeuwzvjUe6IjOvfnwrx-2Bl2V3YTRl4mw2Qy4elI0QiIz9DnFODg-2BMVrrzolwhnqp0sNPQXdTcBjxZt5r-2FGCeItL1VE0q3jC7BfzjzMuM8oMXKgatBrv6g6JLg-3D) | [FreightCasts](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi7FdxT0ozD5AlF4HblXTTPZnAFEyKCrNSeiEc-2Bwpu1QkyzKmuM0g3UJ2CeeF9NeXwR-2BPFTGVDaOono1vQYLAQ8HTFewp7Mkj4zahSc8eY-2Fwg-3D-3DJSlH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcveryvU0ROlHycHotw52EiartPGcJ0-2FixkwWaUTEdEjq83xcTqPVHHtpyCto9mI4KpXK1z1LmB9M35vAWGROuYat3kqsAaOumU0-2FAoVbekMI-2BrK4r7MYkHzpQ8h-2BblLW7oT8k7CPwuKfsD-2F3ZCzBAB0-3D)

*$MP - MP Materials / $USAR - USA Rare Earth* | MP: policy tailwind. USAR: bearish

* *Episodes:* POLITICO Energy (Oct. 2); Bloomberg Businessweek, "The Tiny Magnet Maker That Attracted $1.6 Billion From Lutnick" (Sept. 28)
* *Angle:* MP's lobbyist is pushing for the January 1 rare earth rule to be enforced. On Bloomberg Businessweek, a reporter said USA Rare Earth's Texas mine is "a mound of dirt" and that its Brazilian project has processing problems, despite government backing and roughly $1.5 billion raised from private investors.
* *Source:* [POLITICO Energy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhmDN6Nt1vpsqNzmMpc5kgsIoIbNqVy54GiKrSSPSFndPtRz0Tpbp2xg1gFJEE0Tn1nLnzzQ7X-2B1N-2FMBuHfJ3XV6mNQuA2Xg25YhiLNyF72-2Bw-3D-3DD9Z0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlchWxyWt0hhab-2Bw-2FWcJf-2BNEUdZPYyatANCOrwTNgd0zALJssMW29wo0g4mjdlkny4whD-2BZHi6Dhh4QrIbLZk6rNuiIat0Y5t52Esmc597UG5afZaGdJ29dMANQe-2FWSp8WMTWreanP4C36-2BSlla-2BwGUMc-3D) | [Bloomberg Businessweek](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh8DYiczfr-2FVs1Ce2OneQoUbyvHLP4FRVJC1pWvT3VnIvVOYQcAyKcck1acZm3XMPg5WBGCxPGg8KvDn-2FZ1Nam6Sb-2BAuh2OaD4LH9xUK1KQIw-3D-3D2UFR_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcrnAsD-2BLFuZ5PWtSLAQbLLqTGiwjLCsQDRnHV9yAm86rD1FQBCs7whjUAUJYBnNjZNNG-2FniWpBExMMje3PN9RnWFPCVupnmgkBbYqSr-2BBZtdvng1Zki5G7KawLojP1HzapTknNmDWbnlYPB99DSi8AY-3D)

*Bombardier (BBD/B CN)* | Bullish on demand, supply-constrained

* *Episode:* "Bombardier CEO: Éric Martel – Engineering, Craft, & Building the Fastest Aircraft Since Concorde," The Gstaad Guy Podcast, Oct. 4
* *Speaker:* Éric Martel (CEO)
* *Angle:* Years of backlog, few pre-owned jets for sale, and the whole industry limited by the same specialized suppliers. Read-across: pricing power for engine castings, fan blades and large structures, which is where GE Aerospace, Howmet and others sit.
* *Quote:* *"It's really not a demand issue. It's absolutely a supply issue right now."* (host), and Martel: *"That's the constraint right now."*
* *Source:* [The Gstaad Guy Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj93Qtr8CzvGPdgAoH32x-2FlzFGihjuUxb93XuxNH4ea3-2FonVJVJawnQkAwDVrqSiTSVplgKjQ7dv1DZH5ziy9DbuEh-2F4Bnv8qVR-2FXSKsOVsXQ-3D-3DB7A3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUnykSTgj1TwCDc7Zh3eGBNz-2FWzEmQ-2FOET6kIVAP9TlcqCGEXCXhwf5jQ8XFEqlpZ3mdsh5vK9I36CfaGA4iOop1aW4u4FpzqBsfHDozO3a3roXiBRtx3J3VrR-2FL61wbBTaXMo60-2BSCT7nVfZNXRlXzsxSNkso2yKVDk7If2xQGxtSq6uhbOW21OzGLJWgCRjI-3D)

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