# Tesla Beats on Deliveries and Delays the Roadster as Chinese Exports Alarm Detroit - The Auto Disruption - Week of October 5, 2026

> The Auto Disruption for the week of October 5, 2026, covering podcasts published September 28 to October 5. Synthesis of Tesla's Roadster reveal delay and Q3 deliveries of 486,500, the robotaxi price and safety debate, BYD's 154% export surge, Detroit's China warnings at the Automotive News Congress, the stalled Senate ban on Chinese cars, and the US rollback of fuel-economy rules.

## The Auto Disruption

### Week of October 5, 2026: Tesla Beats on Deliveries and Delays the Roadster as Chinese Exports Alarm Detroit

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*Covering podcasts published September 28 – October 5, 2026*

The car everyone was waiting for didn't show up. Tesla's Roadster reveal, set for October 1st in Waco, Texas, was pushed back *two weeks* because of storms. Some of the people who follow Tesla most closely don't think the weather is the whole story. Then Tesla turned in a solid quarter: *486,500* cars delivered, beating forecasts. The stock jumped about *5%* that day. A Bloomberg editor still called it "Groundhog Day," because Tesla has hovered just under half a million a quarter for three years.

The robotaxi debate moved on from *whether* the cars work to *who pays for them and who trusts them*. Bank of America says a Tesla robotaxi ride already costs about *30% less* than Uber or Lyft. A safety researcher, on the other side, says the industry wants permission "to go from 100 robotaxis to 100,000" based on trust, not proof. In trucking, Aurora promised *30,000 driverless trucks by 2030*. Its stock fell 10% on the day, and a trucking podcast host's reply was "absolutely not."

The biggest numbers of the week came from China. BYD's exports rose *154%* in September while its sales at home fell 13%. Ford's Jim Farley warned that China will export *11 million cars this year*, more than America builds. At the industry's biggest Detroit gathering, executives from Ford, GM, Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz called this a make-or-break moment. One China watcher called it "D-Day." Meanwhile, the Senate's permanent ban on Chinese cars, which last week looked like a near-unanimous sure thing, has been parked until after the November elections.

At home, Washington cut the 2031 fuel-economy target from about *50 mpg to 34.9 mpg*. EVs have settled at about *6%* of new-car sales. And Americans are buying smaller, cheaper cars as gas prices bite.

Here is what the people building, financing, covering and criticizing this industry said, with every number and quote tied to the podcast where it was said.

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## 1. The Roadster that didn't roll out

*The delay.* On [Now You Know's Tesla Time News](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgkOtB9obiB7TecvfgbOh5D-2FhnCP71Nv-2B7S9I-2BxVrxla3sPyu4-2FK46LiH7HqRaAtK67PoKObc1FvCod9h1-2Fl8eUp0amjHWU3-2F9XM-2FlFnJvaPw-3D-3DaEJ3_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMZOpvhCGtEAlSN-2BQBSI3XRCsePpZEB-2F0smd52hxLG2EASk0gaT802M8qQkCv6R0hJsNJ-2FGcGvTDtJalnw-2BKFhJhcBbBhYJOBHeNashdgeCR5mhUtW0trrQ-2F9qwVNwBUB6Q-3D-3D) (Sept 29), hosts Zach and Jesse reported the October 1st event had moved to *October 15th* because of severe weather forecasts. [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgW71DS04GQYeQf3oSYuHd9C7E7-2Fae2MvSfpQn9Kxu631EDF0TMHurejkVGqYPRe5HrIom5m7hPPGDddS2i7pzkCeL2fYHURjdIvqr97MlKGw-3D-3DNKri_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMYbR-2FK-2BJGqK3hYSeTCVsPLA58L0O76oEmlNXt1hsBiAfbmiEId7WwUw8UGCh85g3Z3Zt3nzbsVt53QoRxHKwlCZayUo7dIB1hLpwMd86NuLLVGzHfY0f3wD9rHV-2BgdTmtw-3D-3D) (Sept 30) said the forecast called for thunderstorms and about four inches of rain in Waco. The demonstration is still planned at SpaceX's test site, not a Tesla factory.

*Not everyone buys the weather story.* On the [Electrek podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh0-2FRYbFQR77WDtJfzSG38YBNlV3ekKhcOElIIArC0rc9jO2P3DALXcMN-2BkcVNOa2KGNaEec3d9aI0kb4d8bPQfsVQfEBfv84IDXaGPQJ8qKQ-3D-3DnsDj_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMfV6ET73kZnSOQGITnC1fgD4-2FXFjmt2VNM8ImnWJqUzrlUJhowXA9JtmpuNK-2F2P8OBY6ifk-2Bho-2BpWerfW6-2BnitsV-2F-2BeVmxwL3DX30bchjxPt0wykmePxVqP6kLfQwS58TA-3D-3D) (Oct 2), Fred Lambert, one of the longest-running Tesla reporters, agreed the weather on the day was bad: "There was high wind on the 1st and thunderstorms and rain." But he added:

"It's already cleared up… I don't know if I trust them, to be fair, that they have to delay it for two weeks because of the weather. I think there might be more to it than that."

His advice to readers: "We're not holding our breath for another two weeks because it could be delayed again. I wouldn't be shocked whatsoever."

*What the patents hint at.* With no car to look at, the podcasts turned to Tesla's patent filings:

* *A "fan car."* Tesla was granted a patent for four electric fans around the rear of the car. As [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhxYRzeY4HcOGECtdZOZpu3aNaSMT7xQSvtYfpwqj6ktS0-2BadWiL-2BQs1sZSmw9qOMU9h-2F5NeP2wDClibfjncPUKEL4V9e1R0T5MkrxTpBIXkQ-3D-3DZKgt_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMRhlFjbudPEXHnzGoJpcrnEcETgu0cGAEiarfYOynPENIfP8ziL3AF5xRAYmcppH1pThRynehNuvnoNXycjSGqLIIpEr6V2PaJKhq259s8vvJEOSJTjWrL8F-2FEVmp8x-2BRw-3D-3D) (Oct 2) explained, the fans pull air from under the car, creating low pressure that "effectively suck[s] the thing down" for grip. This is downforce, the same idea as the wings on a Formula One car. "The fans are for aero control, not propulsion," the host said. That cuts against the "flying car" talk of recent weeks. He also noted the drawings "appear to be more Model S than Roadster," so the link to the Roadster is "very speculative."
* *A pop-up wing.* [Ride the Lightning](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgvvMsPFraIy-2BB-2FK26gWRPNMycrxymypmnSPccyC3UKbjBG4icRddu9InXDNmlvfiXKZyp1Ya48rnOKPQkCpev0t7eSyzra7rPGHRZZrhgFCw-3D-3DJBFr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMXL29krMphwo0CskWu30OTE5GiMJUq5LYH4cb-2FjQ78rvSUjWtafv13z4c60DJqKkgMOpCCu7i2ZUbCt-2BS83C8x073K1ypecGiRdMXFS6hQwL1KRzUkiWKpY6Hi3-2BOYMZxg-3D-3D) (Oct 4) covered a newly published patent for an active rear wing that creates *400 to 500 kilograms* of downforce and folds away if the car senses a rear-end crash coming.
* *The no-fly zone.* Last week's closed airspace set off flying-car theories. The Now You Know hosts said that's "incorrect." It was most likely for a drone show, which is normal at Tesla events.

*Why the car matters.* ev.news recalled that Musk has claimed the Roadster can reach 60 mph in *under one second*. Tesla's engineering chief, Lars Moravy, has called it "the last best driver's car Tesla will ever make." The ev.news host's dry translation: after this, "Tesla's making steering wheel-less blobs that ferry people around."

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## 2. Tesla's quarter: good numbers, same ceiling

*The numbers.* On [Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOikrpPRDKcLaGHlOSqI4NpUlNJAAxX4T2N2iGuthZNtH5bXPYPutkbQjXeu0wlU2T91W6W1lqRZMJm2cb9-2BI9YMGldapwsLA-2FM-2B92SI2rRfMQ-3D-3DSxov_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMcljNnARpwu1zYLpDrKQx0cnmNvdpVX05cI-2BZ-2FsYYSu45TwrgaGY437uZa-2FRc3cCpzSgbAgpGS-2Bcer-2BIlL113uuxmBG-2BUbmovOSSQCkpUkNNSmdFqSVenxG4fWWTcihTZA-3D-3D) (Oct 2), the hosts read out Tesla's third-quarter figures as they came in:

* *486,000* deliveries (Bloomberg put it at 486,500)
* *464,391* vehicles produced
* *13.7 gigawatt-hours* of home and grid battery storage installed, which Kevin Hincks called "another bright spot"

The [Bloomberg Intelligence](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOguPCWbfwLw70MS0q-2Be38xrckWLollv9v7WrQM9So67vIe9LATtVvRw5gjhP4vU-2FL7Z7VAbXnT9H6S8g66iWcTjQaVCCA4vFJhGyj4wN7f5FA-3D-3DkrW9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMUoce80ygB7Wk-2BguyYvbrXb0FncpsLKrvcgFXovCL00K-2B-2FgJxp9cfaXwdTH-2FMgm1z-2FmwcZr-2FBcnv6-2Bqp3lpRYtGC-2Bp05AovQi5yGEMOWBHd2MD5wLpcq6fjC7kFYab-2BXgw-3D-3D) podcast (Oct 2) said the stock was up *5%* on the day but still down about *17%* for the year. On [The Options Insider](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiLbqIluSMY-2Bbm0KH81LE1gyjAPwGoxd9QglaZTmmRJUhtroD-2FlsmWBIoI5BpZMFxPxKmvyjMB4OK-2BmYtmD-2BF7KU1HSRxiS9t-2BEqXgG4T-2FE9Q-3D-3DdEoq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMYuXDf-2BpG3UjMR7H3fgE6SlwOc3MTIVpT-2BjB-2FItA6j1eMfbTaWRtx07TwRzVycSb9AzbS55Q5ZYmeZB5o2T7JwwCO8NvXZmKwzIP4ORkHVap2XOAgrW4SLtWTcj8guvqhw-3D-3D) (Oct 2), the hosts said Tesla closed up *$16.50 at $370.59*.

That is a direct answer to last week's bear case. On Steve Eisman's podcast, short-seller George Noble had predicted "a disaster" for this quarter. Instead, Tesla beat forecasts.

*But it's a ceiling, not a breakout.* Craig Trudell, Bloomberg News's global autos editor, put it plainly on Bloomberg Intelligence:

"It feels like Groundhog Day a little bit, where this is a company where people increasingly care less about the here and now business and care much more about the future."

His point: when Tesla has a good quarter, "it's roughly 500,000 units. But they've yet to crack that threshold. And that's happened now kind of repeatedly just the last three years." He added two less obvious things:

* Tesla has been selling a lot of its big battery systems "to Elon's other company, SpaceX. So it's a little bit of… from one hand of Elon's empire to the other."
* Tesla is benefiting because Ford and Stellantis "really sort of have rethought electric vehicle plans" since federal support was pulled a year ago. That gives Tesla "a little bit more room to breathe, but also a shrinking… market for EVs in the U.S."

*Looking ahead.* On [Tesla Time News](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi6zv-2FK8lHb61lhusFzGqBSWPb9srgmwLXRtmJ9OkEaAk4eLEXTNi4f2hC6anHpw9i5cwxB6cpYRfE-2BWrkLIsA-2BgCXAVo9J6LwjjkVphhmgZQ-3D-3DhjM6_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMU-2FjWRA0aCztJ6aMMT4qa5tXxw1THhIe1Ub5k1Hl4mnF9WNS6D0LwSY7bnhoYpvLtcNNBIfJvLKoeUqG9pJKadW37S-2FQ3VyzuIOIdJNpqFg8wtNt8zqBpKvpS6cB1TvttQ-3D-3D) (Oct 1), the hosts noted that the fourth quarter is usually Tesla's biggest (485,000 in Q4 2023 and 496,000 in Q4 2024). They said showrooms are being "picked clean," with some online orders pushed into early next year. They put analyst forecasts at *1.77 million* cars for the full year.

*Rivian is quietly growing.* On Electrek, Seth Weintraub said Rivian's deliveries jumped *58%* from the second quarter to the third, driven by its new, cheaper R2. Rivian doesn't break out R2 numbers. Lambert estimated "between 6,000 and 9,000 deliveries out of the 19,000" were R2s. His one complaint: "It's very Tesla-like on that."

*The Semi factory opens.* [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtEOxhKJtGnyg5OAprptZQ-2FfVQCf1moDEziBeoUbnTCWNMS1zlDgfm2gsMf-2F-2FG0z0WWD-2B4Wa-2Fbthk3jKqL-2FvQx8tWRq1IW5B53mBv3unmzfQ-3D-3DF6OA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMWA7LfZaD03zHzFjdEwqfDFOYPdbggWSXsLjrtOW9BevnQ-2FSsVlNh8xRVW21X0B7zkI7pQ-2B10jJe37G9p8eWyf5MA-2Ffq85KCt5MaMHSmNVuDDqGJwKnloU-2Bzq2fo8QP8dg-3D-3D) (Oct 1) reported Tesla has opened its high-volume Semi truck plant in Sparks, Nevada:

* Planned capacity of *50,000* trucks a year, and *3,000+* jobs, according to Tesla's Semi engineering director Dan Priestley
* An order from a shipper group called ZET for *2,500* electric trucks, with Tesla named the main supplier
* Range of up to *500 miles*. No official price, though the ICCT (a clean-transport research group) estimates *$290,000* for the long-range version
* About *98%* uptime in existing fleets, according to Priestley
* Self-driving on the Semi, per Musk, around the end of this year or early next

On the [PBD Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiluk69KOAF6VEF-2B-2B5VSeR4uMNwWulCZCd-2BWaO-2BOTlMuvG5ekdRpl1-2BjAaVvRRRZ9LAi-2BejcAbck1C8fb5F3M4u15yoAbI4iHzHBSaR15GFnA-3D-3DARaM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMfNDujZPIcTAGVWCMIBkfGuOEKc26c1BwcI-2BtMl6uXOjy6uJGEFx-2BIBF4fRoJu-2BC5NHf1rtzxY-2B5mH0qYSdhdlPieJ1oQGHlZ0MhT-2B5yPDo23LXlnkd-2FRaCQ-2BEKwBlrzjw-3D-3D) (Sept 28), the hosts praised the economics: electricity at *20 to 30 cents a mile* against about *80 cents* for diesel. A trucking executive was much cooler. On [FreightWaves Today](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgnBv5i-2BsW2t8sYgO3ePUefPkLQa6VrkhViZxbED2Gdnfdv-2BSDQRS8upbTIBRKXG-2BoJsEwMIX1b3lM-2FSni3fWY6A-3D-3D9MpM_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMeXdIBacBhJU0EhuBFstNbdR9JUeDhUGFqZ7kB2yvFIcGTdRjgguFwLQU1sBFYaqZbi3MsuL2-2F0HV7PSjffRvYO1RWB3oUqfZZVp5y8WT5iOu7-2FrQX5GwJDio83-2BylTznA-3D-3D) (Sept 29), David Eckland of Covenant Transportation called the Semi's roughly *$350,000* cost too high without customers willing to pay for it. He said he has found *zero* customers outside California willing to pay for electric trucks.

*The robot side.* On [The Information's TITV](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh-2Bhu4WQsRT5dTuFWxwGc19-2BewbPCBwituRloqH25JGVYU5B2L7-2BxNmT8WRVmLH-2FC-2Bn6gURonsoUSu34sWlIUsIMYpShnGfHWuQL1KyxZjCsA-3D-3Dy909_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMQ4K6cKyIUGT9bAx-2B9NXJyQrMx2Da0Wotqmasrmc94FHT2qtkrK8nFQdIJd3a1ydp5ESqHvw-2BoL2cwi3dWzxxBDsgZiCx9-2BJ9peosHJWJWNtTpnG3GelA95-2BAzpnrfQy3Q-3D-3D) (Sept 28), reporter Grace Kaye said Tesla is building about *500 to 600* Optimus humanoid robots a week. The target is *20,000* a week, and the robot's hands and AI are the main bottlenecks.

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## 3. Robotaxis: cheaper rides, and a fight over what "safe" means

*The price case.* The most useful robotaxi podcast of the week came from Bank of America. On [Global Research Unlocked](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjuv9Y0JVlHS3-2B9MSaOsW14rp-2FSiazTtgT2PLi2fDTvP1VHSID16GcjwA-2BEKE7Fy1dyWjCsTH6lgF8-2Fv2BGKi2XN-2Fy5K3s5-2FnmG0xnjudAMuA-3D-3DRCRL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMU6T60-2BNq7dOen-2BLhQQdbvK0K9NRsrH35df9a-2F-2BpRr-2FBY0OP3zbwx13VvlJwXFFb7MJOoZjYNNDlVnoi7Z8itRyu5Swa0DoaoSfWnL3Rlt4HxK1Y-2Bjdc6xOs4HYhv9QerA-3D-3D) (published Oct 2, recorded Sept 16 after a client trip to meet 15 self-driving companies in the Bay Area), BofA auto analyst Alex Perry and strategist Martin Briggs gave a lot of hard numbers:

* *Waymo* is giving "well over *500,000* paid autonomous rides per week" in the US, about double a year ago.
* There are roughly *4,000 to 5,000* robotaxis in the US and *8,000 to 10,000* worldwide. Compare that to about *20 million* taxis and ride-hail cars globally. Robotaxis are "well below… 0.1% of the market."
* BofA's China team projects about *400,000* robotaxis in China alone by 2030.
* "According to some pricing studies we have done, *Tesla RoboTaxi is already actually 30% cheaper than Uber and Lyft*," Perry said. He thinks Tesla is using low prices to build an audience first.
* Tesla's purpose-built Cybercab should cost "roughly *30 cents*" a mile to run at scale, and less than *$30,000* to build. Early Waymo cars cost "well in excess of $100,000."

Briggs summed up the trip: the conversation "seems to have shifted from can autonomous driving work to how quickly can it scale."

Perry added an important line for carmakers. He does *not* expect Americans to give up owning cars any time soon: "Vehicle ownership is important for most people." Instead, self-driving features will become a key reason to pick one brand over another. Over five to ten years, they may become so common that buyers stop paying extra for them.

*A ride in the gold car.* On [The Vergecast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhmz0jsNl5j-2Fc8oXdn7oWyICzVlkfjmMpzfrF8eVNe7zyktV7x-2BXurkSI8lmQ4RE1iSGLtx5-2F0FwyqBRa-2Bhhs1WLwNAsayrneroTQag-2BmKEhA-3D-3DqywY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMaL9WE0AYMKS2uzvpY-2FhJcvD-2BDisNGK1c9ro7XmZt51lY0DMZPmafO5O526JhIJwLjysnuhjHSvP3FQKjf1W1p6z4KR8lCbH7ojkP4d9EJfqyb3Q9u5ZTuE9s-2FYUqXFtnQ-3D-3D) (Oct 2), The Verge's editor-in-chief Nilay Patel took a six-minute Cybercab ride in Austin. "Totally uneventful. Except everyone stares at you." He took Waymo the rest of the day and couldn't feel much difference between Tesla's camera-only car and Waymo's lidar-equipped Jaguar (lidar is a laser sensor that maps the car's surroundings). His verdict:

"It was fine. It was cheap. It is obviously being subsidized. I have a lot of questions about what happens when it is raining, when it is foggy."

*The venture capital view.* On [Uncapped with Jack Altman](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi1jx5dV9LcTvnQrChEG01GNmCo2620HUScP8reu2475Ur8jSkFUZ-2BD3e9H8thHIhOLqwKdWYoqusM3LuAXtV3VqjBSa6YimAcM-2FueAdbtkQQ-3D-3D5_9q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMS9gQ4txwtQ0eDn4adgFgPNthA21GWG-2FhsFulwzxoOn3lM2Ndo51XvSpdUHgfeyIsMWzIV3YaE6v3UG8WHxbuAU46laEc2I0ZBCaQ5Nb7CBk9sDeCfzUO6vajQQpuJ2A3g-3D-3D) (Oct 1), a16z's David George laid out why investors are so excited. Waymo feels everywhere in the cities where it runs, but there are "less than 10,000" of them in the whole US. An Uber or Lyft costs "two bucks and change per mile," and he called the market "massively elastic," meaning demand would explode if prices dropped. He claimed robotaxis are "14 times safer" and will soon be "20 times safer." On personal cars, he guessed buyers would pay "minimum $10,000" for full self-driving, across *17 million* new US cars a year.

*The safety skeptic's reply.* That "14 times safer" claim is exactly what Phil Koopman, a Carnegie Mellon researcher who studies self-driving safety, took apart on [There Auto Be A Law](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg9Y92apGboOvYDd4uqkVI1XCDGC5XGYxL-2BoJ3nnyyJmpgTkmCfb6sIR16MjzmCYiG2JbFbjp31flwtPMv3eHWdGivEUaCkTjpt7m-2BRkZtJeQ-3D-3Dh9N2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMXEjbDeiKG7GrhjaxEVCZMd-2BC7k5fpJuyVrq3xKTBfX1y6MWdtRtd6a-2FosF9AUlGtMZHtNuURssVKFiIwf5wrGo8qJY0xOKI16BkqDCob-2Ft61ImpHippuxVU73TdQbrpNA-3D-3D) (Oct 1). He has written a list of *28* reasons why company safety claims don't tell the whole story. His core argument:

"What they really want is social permission to go from 100 robotaxis to 100,000 robotaxis… because we've been safe in the past for our hundreds or thousands, we will therefore be safe for 100,000."

He said a company can fairly argue "we've acted responsibly in the past, you should trust us." Society might accept that, but "we're basing it on trust, not proof." His other points:

* *The software keeps changing.* Switching from one kind of AI to another "is a completely different car," so miles driven on the old version don't prove the new one is safe. One host noted that Waymo's published safety studies were finished before it brought in its new AI system.
* *Remote operators are a weak safety net.* Crashes happen in seconds; remote help takes minutes. And as fleets grow, the quality of remote staff will likely fall: "This is probably the best it'll ever be."
* *Data sharing.* "The companies have the data… They're not sharing." Koopman said Waymo addresses many of his points, while Tesla "is kind of hiding the ball."

*Tesla vs. the regulator.* Koopman also weighed in on the federal safety review of the Cybercab, which this newsletter has followed for weeks. Tesla certified the car itself as meeting federal rules, and the regulator, NHTSA (the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration), has questions. Tesla owed NHTSA a response around the day of taping. His take:

"Tesla's playing a game of chicken with NHTSA… And Tesla knows they can get however long a year or more of free pass while this process plays out."

On [The Road to Autonomy](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgPmNktOVO-2BkHPeSZPEZHpD-2Bvvo-2BX8EHv9VYX4Wt6OEEimqdL8q8VwWxYArd9iV6SX2toWOiq-2FCiqyOU4Kd4ABLM9jZmQpBVGP8SMHPVf5xgQ-3D-3Du0ND_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMS0fbtK8AvidQu-2Bvu2s-2BiLErkG0GEH66FPObi1-2BojsVoxRCvz-2BIYQFpp1mtczPA9D5dh8nyqxXlvscbmSnyu6B013NdGG7c994wD6bf7rcxxTIdhC4-2FvjuYcAzyY083iRA-3D-3D) (Oct 3), the bullish hosts treated the same process as the key thing to watch. One said: "If we see Tesla getting through the NHTSA stuff and they start ramping, just think about the number of cars that Waymo and Tesla are going to have on the road by the end of '28."

The same There Auto Be A Law episode also criticized a new NHTSA plan. The agency is paying *$5 million over three years* to an industry-linked group to write its first-ever self-driving performance standards. The hosts called the contract "non-competitive." They said its goal of ending a "patchwork" of state rules really points toward federal rules that would override the states.

*Other robotaxi notes from the week:*

* *Cybercabs with steering wheels.* On the [Car Stuff Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgxGJD1jXffRNGQDhElh-2BF0cl9SNJhzNhKExmH8Hi8d0XeHLAfQj99CNSjwojDpZQs9yLtdt-2BAOOXhmsCi6iaLSMxeUl5lwG540BiTwq5TN5w-3D-3D87_Y_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMXPmrsgQRjk3Zmr4tqQEUG9zpO-2Fnd0XEZU4PGbCAOZB-2BYaY0PaTLl-2BlA05Dqlauz8alBqTaPSxbNUe8Po-2BlsoBtXv-2FBcVuQysLSqiFjEsX3y-2F0AV-2BpTeqtD71PnOkREoKw-3D-3D) (Sept 29), a listener reported seeing Cybercabs with steering wheels in Miami, and host Tom Appel saw one in Chicago. The hosts said these versions are being tested with drivers.
* *Longer hours.* On [Tesla Time News](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhazWHKK26Qu3ehoWaJ9bcLaWuYGY8uFNwHgWhMFTAQuV0PJwQLdqbA-2FUWxD3MNN5WqnMaYDn9MjifIWbcuf6Q-2FfX96fccKSR69nGsnGYMzWg-3D-3Dx3JY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMcUnYKapd-2FzuwRmjLAFA-2Fs-2FUw2ZVhuuQFTs8-2F-2Ft-2FRnjhe1Uy8r8buPNzySTS4AJv8sleaDVswsNau5dhdMtuYTnJiTM9XTbCimVUIlmKQQMyVyfl5N-2F-2FyoNjffvzYQJsmw-3D-3D) (Oct 4), the hosts said Tesla's robotaxi hours now run to *11 p.m.* Musk said the limit is avoiding pets at night.
* *Europe is slow.* On [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhXqhn6P8EI-2FBhrMxCDCvnZ5HxNelLxJyPHpD8-2BkRYsQAylfWEi2wtYmKF9qYCCzh6a6GvGx-2BJX59uBVlraSx4lBzQATq0rTVplUJBOqcMejg-3D-3DsznG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMYUloZgOAjQHfZyx5QJtTkZkJRiCrHIXhgS0Rd7H9trqb34kmINT-2FS5WifuFA7cFh162Qdmq75EMBunPMSmC86oCYQNeW1l-2F7OUyDCIK-2BsQqTUykWgMutAcl9byvClcnQQ-3D-3D) (Oct 1), the host said France is blocking EU-wide approval of Tesla's driver-assist software because it goes over speed limits. On [Kilowatt](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi-2FnZ-2BBXL-2FsT6JzN25rkXwcP5x-2FESab5S7DeoPeFbBP632XC7-2F0bbv-2FWJLtfehiW6BEXDBouf202c9iHOMsnMyORgDj-2BLOik5aYld3VA2hNxw-3D-3DU6cA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMUApwvyU7ttgav78CwGi7bpyIdelgbd7g-2Bo4aRBgDC8id9QdHi3EggSR66K3APA36JY-2FCk1HheQBEWUmIpvISISjpYfQleTSgsiVUgNJAd-2BK9Ts0j5cHuts2zS8NtN8nGQ-3D-3D) (Sept 29), host Bodhi said the EU vote has slipped to *December*, with pushback from Sweden and France. Tesla is working directly with Ireland in the meantime. He also said the latest software, FSD 14.2 "lite," is coming to about *170,000* older Model S and X cars.
* *Waymo's growing pains.* On [The GIG Economy Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhqeeyc8DN4jYclKWSbeFbunKMGLWeeRyw7xi-2FJ-2BwsdZVoOrrJxY1NJBwQsxY80VjW0j6GbT3CXprw6xbfBWi3NeCnYeAJUlj8X1Dcnj0KdRQ-3D-3DOlZ0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMe26groyNNhwJqW8VYM-2Bz7a21vAcgF6o6aRCm1WBR2yEy7GYLvmwDCDsZXa0ko7idSbVzOwwobKTaqOSxkjd2NlnEMtGdTKo2mPW-2B-2BbDFE6Tzaw4xWjLHkoImNXgBISbMw-3D-3D) (Sept 28), the hosts described a Waymo driving through barricades and a stop sign at a Denver farmers' market. Colorado has no way to ticket a driverless car. Meanwhile, Waymo opened Nashville to all residents in a 60-square-mile area and launched teen accounts for ages 13 to 17.

---

## 4. Uber's big question: rent the robot or own it?

Uber is the company with the most to lose from robotaxis. This week it showed how big a bet it's making on partners.

*Waabi's $1 billion raise.* On [The Driverless Digest](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjOfNBOiLZX1aJxoFw-2Byi9gTtH1sntsyoXET8cdTQqj0bHXLphITVOMiWorPDWAXwmdYLh-2F7-2F3I5otTIJzzf49T0hrZ5R7kIKv4ufbR5OOnOQ-3D-3DwI13_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMQO7N-2FxzFhJdsRHUVBKM97O9ndKQgpg-2F3wyOX4j6-2BQ8F11zneOmiPUzuUq9c1E4KA1R54xjTJqPl-2BHJUp1Qr6eyfg61ABa1ClZKj4Ow3hC5mRvyx-2FAfvmrZ-2FIWECKlHJwA-3D-3D) (Sept 28), Waabi CEO Raquel Urtasun discussed her company's raise of more than *$1 billion*, including *$250 million* from Uber. Uber has committed to deploy at least *25,000* Waabi robotaxis, with fully driverless rides expected in the first quarter of 2027. Waabi started in trucking, and Urtasun's pitch is that one AI "brain" drives both trucks and taxis. She expects the industry to shrink to a few winners:

"It's not going to be 25 competitors… it's going to be really maybe two or three competitors… And who has the better product that can scale faster will win."

She also explained why trucking is ripe for this: "over 90% turnover in many of these fleets… young people don't want to be truck drivers for long haul."

*Will Uber have to buy a robotaxi company?* On The Road to Autonomy (Oct 3), hosts Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk argued about whether Uber eventually has to own its self-driving technology instead of renting it from partners. Brulte's view:

"I truly believe that Uber has to rebuild ATG [its old self-driving unit]… I think they're going to have to vertically integrate. So I would say you're probably 18 to 24 months at the long tail."

He offered two "curveballs": a Nuro and Lucid combination that turns Lucid into a robotaxi company with Uber as a top shareholder, or Uber buying Amazon's Zoox outright. Piecyk was less sure. If Waymo and Tesla race ahead by 2028, "there's never the right time for them to own the stack." He also called Lyft "a rounding error" by comparison.

*A ride in a Wayve.* On the same episode, Brulte described a ride in a car using Wayve's software, a UK company that licenses self-driving software to carmakers. It drove on San Francisco freeways in heavy traffic with no interventions, and he called it "very, very smooth." The hosts estimated Wayve is *12 to 16 months* from a product that rivals Tesla's driver-assist, and about *36 months* from a driverless robotaxi service, probably first in London.

*China is further ahead than most Americans realize.* On [Ride AI](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOj0U6DKWfKLdfX8q3GEObKuZm5kIvZNKV8bnCLfzo-2FPHFZ3g3kBdQhtx5T1pOVfk8Clo-2FrKm5IqML8WA4PiB0Zemad7Tx-2BiDV1mjiZ4TKjRsA-3D-3D3qN0_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMW87iOS-2BmDFkP2elOPLsqrhMfD8QdUpkaOm-2B3Pdm2qzQopwMXDFiNOu8MaZchmyCq7NDMQavtjIolckW59180Vbp0vnsaLMkYGE4aZBuGhtDPO1Ecg-2BV7MxwPod6yh-2BqDg-3D-3D) (Sept 29), Pony.ai CFO Leo Wang said:

* Pony had about *2,000* robotaxis by mid-2026.
* It is the only company with permits to run paid, fully driverless service in all four of China's biggest cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
* With its seventh-generation vehicles, Pony has reached "a unit economic break-even" in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, meaning each car covers its own costs.
* It has launched Europe's first driver-out service with Uber in Zagreb, Croatia.

---

## 5. Driverless trucks: a giant promise, and a skeptical audience

*Aurora's 2030 target.* As reported on [FreightWaves Today](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg6GO8XWXA-2BLX3AsiqvXk-2BfIpIA9PDhCByyw-2FPvfCvOecidjfO7W0FtFG-2BM5e1SA-2Bkz3cQQPrPJw7jbhHolIK-2BlFaZeYOFZ1g2oSCHm9gKOyg-3D-3D1bE4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMVLrszLlJD4gOT6Fgx5WWQW2fPTDF1EjdMRxkIO4Ar-2BABfa-2BnEEQlAix03TQy2Lppns9PzQMoXQaHQAzM5mtCBxNP5tdCsY2cnqtuyUYNQ-2B-2BaoEIoHi5TDr3zcrv12cMiQ-3D-3D) (Sept 28), Aurora told investors in Dallas that it plans to:

* Run more than *30,000 driverless trucks by 2030*, with more than *$5 billion* in revenue and about *60%* gross margins
* End 2026 with *200* driverless trucks, worth an *$80 million* annual revenue rate, according to CFO David Maday
* Shift to a "driver as a service" model, where carriers own the trucks and pay Aurora *85 cents or more per mile* for the software

It has logged more than *500,000* driverless miles so far. Its trucks run at an annual pace of more than *225,000 miles* each, more than double a normal truck, because a computer doesn't need rest breaks or time at home.

*The trucking crowd isn't sold on the timeline.* On [WHAT THE TRUCK?!?](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi7FdxT0ozD5AlF4HblXTTPZnAFEyKCrNSeiEc-2Bwpu1QkyzKmuM0g3UJ2CeeF9NeXwR-2BPFTGVDaOono1vQYLAQ8HTFewp7Mkj4zahSc8eY-2Fwg-3D-3DSE9U_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMe0QwHqWrvfI6Fd4mCYJrQql2MuBJaZGP-2F8Rr1anGsyDNnQoLj5x6KSTpdhZwnBSC20modD88vxyrWJO-2BSZOm1w5XQr-2FSq27Gj4wOSqmncuTwlxZeKujbWJutHYHm3KHnQ-3D-3D) (Sept 28), host Mike, who says he could "probably hit one with a golf ball" from his Texas office, was asked if Aurora will make it. "Eventually, yes. On this time frame… absolutely not." The co-host pointed out that the $5 billion goal is "a thousand X from what they did last year." Mike noted the stock fell *10%* on investor day: "That's a telltale sign."

Covenant's David Eckland was blunter still on FreightWaves Today (Sept 29): "I definitely will be retired… before autonomous comes on." He pointed to unanswered questions about insurance, security for valuable loads, and infrastructure.

*Kodiak's quieter path.* On [Freightvine](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiZ7WnvdSv9incLCKlb9u22u0NsBqZIHH-2B6gjU1mG4vfk3EGg-2BDyUwNky8XNvVuk49ciWsLby3HTXkyYcLYP4M9D2SsHFwzFxAx1w3F5vko8w-3D-3DLvQb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMdaAXjnl8ykRbvcfPG0KUv9FTnvc8m479fdyop-2FOxPOFJcrOOgTqttVzhnB7QlT53sFF3566Gxv6uhpjjZ6jVLM2Ota8XVflfs-2B63CNpRwdhR5ZGnUkk3VhzJ-2FRNvfwKVg-3D-3D) (Oct 1), Kodiak COO Michael Wiesinger described three businesses:

* *Long-haul trucking* for customers including Werner and J.B. Hunt, running since 2019. It still has a safety observer in the cab, but "we are getting very close to actually taking that out," with the end of 2026 as the goal.
* *Industrial sand hauling* in Texas's Permian Basin oil field, fully driverless "since December 2024," with what the episode described as *35* trucks.
* *Defense* work with the Army and Marines.

Kodiak's view is that self-driving trucks will work alongside human drivers rather than fully replace them.

*Why investors care.* BofA's Martin Briggs said on Global Research Unlocked that a human driver may be productive for eight or nine hours a day, while driverless trucks "could potentially operate closer to 20 hours a day." He put global freight at "roughly *$4 trillion*."

---

## 6. China: exports boom while home sales slide

*BYD's two-speed month.* [ev.news China](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgkaqKoOiREjob7QwODhP6WIa9yIqeJT47jMRyj1olFmuDjMKOOMCGoSmupNRwBFLuKp1G3hogBbRo7p9Ti5YqgjK0nO8i6Q-2FYGawm-2Fq6n5Mw-3D-3DChS4_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMZjjCaf1YwuWTWDF-2BDcVRb9i55GOBVU2Af9fdkQSK6No-2FbfrU1dKFlfhO1ndpc-2Fk-2BAV1JI-2FRMHJS74z3l4IvYnwYa3veqaGqe8RGv9aGKdeGc-2BBGubJ-2FxyYo0Puy0lLwMA-3D-3D) (Oct 3) broke down BYD's September:

* Total sales of *463,561*, up *17%* from a year ago and BYD's best month of 2026
* Exports up *154%* to *181,000*
* Sales inside China *down* *13%* to just under *283,000*
* Fully electric cars now *60%* of its passenger sales, up from 52% a year ago
* *1.34 million* cars exported in nine months, already more than all of 2025 (1.05 million)

Deutsche Bank said BYD management raised its overseas goal to about *2 million* cars this year, and blamed shipping capacity for holding exports back. Hitting the low end would take about *185,000* exports a month for the rest of the year. As host Martyn Lee put it: "Overseas markets are doing so much of the heavy lifting."

*Everyone is setting records, and missing targets.*

* *Leapmotor* delivered *105,500* cars in September, up *58%*, and its third straight month over 100,000. Exports hit a 2026 high of *27,000*. It has delivered *666,000* this year and needs about *111,000 a month* to reach its 1 million goal. Its joint venture with Stellantis now has more than *1,000* sales and service sites in Europe ([ev.news China](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgkaqKoOiREjob7QwODhP6WIa9yIqeJT47jMRyj1olFmuDjMKOOMCGoSmupNRwBFLuKp1G3hogBbRo7p9Ti5YqgjK0nO8i6Q-2FYGawm-2Fq6n5Mw-3D-3DZHQI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMVji7770eBC6L6lcJtP-2FZoc5x3gzpKdTU9GwSKH5Kq8WJupqsO0xSeyhHkzjFLaocvOeqAPphytY-2F3efOL5qS0czRY-2FnhgMtNalxRWongv9QBM7-2BYiNpD7MSr7ecz2Zw2w-3D-3D), Oct 3).
* *Xiaomi* passed *40,000* deliveries in a month for the first time. Its new Sky Nomad SUV (from *US$31,000*) took more than *10,000* orders in four minutes. But it would need roughly *88,000 a month* to hit its annual target ([ev.news China](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgUdMlfl51ordcivALg-2FVswe-2F9yEQQjQHDM9XLtSjWWUL7tj3OnxdM-2B-2BHOYcjzaj5NjLpzzIpMgH00anFDZbAcKT4OZPH8HOF-2B19ETEr6UstQ-3D-3DryHx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMZnU5kSbjKN5v81mInaGipM3gMQKkgGZxHW764faBj12MbEMbKBMpNsMMUNlc7yfyQi6vwBHJzA1TKl5OYrBTccHgPZkeu2F5b-2FD3cfyX-2FVtL02Z7HDmfysekvbqkJyMtQ-3D-3D), Oct 3).
* *Xpeng* delivered a record *118,390* in the quarter and *41,256* in September. *Nio* delivered *37,216*, its sixth record month in a row (same episode).

*Why China has to export.* On [Automotive News Daily Drive's weekend episode](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOixn6oUc-2B2im-2BOr0RYSW4HPeRgtuOneUJE6I2qHe51s2Z3GhIjodD-2Fh4UOF5CSv3ZpTUpc1JeKKTGBIGhkExCBwOFJUYqdBrirM09yKHjPJwQ-3D-3DTs_v_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMbC8r7YbnnjimNFophrkjs9Edpwc1ubeGW8rU-2FeQ67PuoKgRig6h8F-2FlN701DWuTBbIZ6KEku7P9aAFdpnsap7WUv4mFWW3uPGxsQsMqlFgOrtwzISq2WbEV7wKgCjzJ-2Fw-3D-3D) (Oct 3), reporter Larry Vellequette did the math. China has built about *50 million* cars' worth of factory capacity. Its home market uses about half. It exports about *11 million*. "That still leaves them about *14 million* units that they have to get rid of." He compared China today to the US car industry 100 years ago: too many brands and too many factories, heading for a shakeout.

Ford's Jim Farley made the same point at the Automotive News Congress, as replayed on a [Daily Drive bonus episode](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjEKmUnLWf8rZQFIQdPjy8P0ceGnYictI6pD6d6vgyuM2dhCLSu1Unmq-2Bq-2F1sJKhtceEzcWO7T3alBWevHhie6ORnP-2BmNivBs3dWnZkVGy0vA-3D-3D3W4-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMaAB1jkYKdM4jnucOj6HFiZbvF3o65YBPGufxR5GlSSXow6XFbIDEA1NX25a0g1b-2FPCZV5rIRyQ9sjaH3-2FKMAjFbDJbZWF96Mvmv1yfbSA-2FfcJlldfm7Ae2270f-2B-2BP5GHQ-3D-3D) (Oct 4): China has about "100 car companies… none of them are making money. There's few. There's like five or six. 100% of the profits are export."

*The glut reaches batteries.* On [Autoline Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg7pJ7PZI3rGalZz-2F4q-2Bo0ahjoT6iWQiSi-2BlnEA8ni4BNccfsaDo1pd96yQzHkr6HEHisMbHPceofx83vDaJRzUwEItvDJEJ0w6JaEzxMtI7A-3D-3D8jYz_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMbp0FHO67YSGEaVBiNgzwhUEeEt-2FSHN-2FGaodfI9CwkZKbaUqRHrn9mOuy6h7WVZF-2BTgaKyI0ToKFDvbvyAPwI7imA7ruVlHKPkflWk8y3xkEiQqkWSaf1KEyXQdEbzBo1A-3D-3D) (Sept 30), the host said lithium prices fell about *25%* in September, from about *$24,000 a ton to just under $18,000*. Like the carmakers, battery makers built too much capacity. Beijing has suspended construction of new battery plants and put a new consumption tax on lithium batteries.

*Europe keeps opening up.* On [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtEOxhKJtGnyg5OAprptZQ-2FfVQCf1moDEziBeoUbnTCWNMS1zlDgfm2gsMf-2F-2FG0z0WWD-2B4Wa-2Fbthk3jKqL-2FvQx8tWRq1IW5B53mBv3unmzfQ-3D-3DNWOI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMboEyqwHL18Ca5xKPV4gu1cMi-2BfI-2BRq80B6W9hnfzsjnrFirit8QNvT8fi5Xhuw0aCrKVjICucjZlTFIYKfNdb7TXuxUrtcmMsn0IdJFT036uBw5yBn-2BrhefhNItDZ0yog-3D-3D) (Oct 1), Martyn Lee cited Dataforce figures showing Chinese brands at about *12%* of European new-car sales in August, up from *1%* five years ago. They also make up one in four hybrid sales in the UK. On [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjeF1VCzWv-2FLPXyKQ68z10so9UD5JhVTiLemQ0MiiI0A2P9AVoj6JfwCVmtXLl39AbRsP6gu-2BaWjnyYdksGK40yBkDc9TBguXvT32uRs8gRuw-3D-3Ddyvr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMcRLRqjPz1n9gMvRtUAT3nfIfsKKz-2BXk3QwkoqNlMg-2FR1aGRxkupFp-2BX1RoQNq1AauHlHRGGDtRyLYu2hIRDcCSss1BrHY0BZRZiEFzVME-2BMfdIZ0paIxLGBjgxZvi-2FqDg-3D-3D) (Sept 30), he explained why Chinese plug-in hybrids are flooding in: EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars (an extra 18.8% for Geely-group brands like Zeekr) don't apply to plug-in hybrids, which pay only the standard 10%. EU politicians "initially forgot to include those categories."

The squeeze runs the other way too. On [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh7oZt21O-2FlfJ0AKbpZkYZhEHUJcSEl5X5RmmfGQihDiow1EeFPQ-2F6xX8mxf0h6r4-2BbQu9WIJo24WqqcFz6KlW72-2FUsdcY0zSdyHg-2FRlL3mnw-3D-3DYGyQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMY3-2B6PccWaT0FzfkWHPZydAoX-2FVpNGOGKXKl-2F2rcxuDNoj9SXiQxL1D1tIw5rRQOjP21MWvFYf8rnsS6LcvQNibZecoGY5JnKNz4kfavLYRsTo2MlW-2BeJstsrw1tjVk28g-3D-3D) (Oct 3), the host said Porsche's China sales fell *40%*, and Porsche is planning new gas-powered Macan models for China in response. And Western carmakers are now licensing Chinese technology: Stellantis signed up the Chinese firm Momenta for driver-assist systems on Peugeots and Jeeps, "showing how Western brands are having to lean on Chinese software" ([ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhxYRzeY4HcOGECtdZOZpu3aNaSMT7xQSvtYfpwqj6ktS0-2BadWiL-2BQs1sZSmw9qOMU9h-2F5NeP2wDClibfjncPUKEL4V9e1R0T5MkrxTpBIXkQ-3D-3DNFCS_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMQaOBE7bvuU1OBVOv026LAA-2FNcU2ZGnMFPSHPLEOhRL1g0fTTCrtEadvoS-2FSEfoeGoTop-2BNTgFyGHQSJkMZVNvXJqug-2FjBCc-2FDOYAuVRwZ0DJ-2BHwjPM76RC0oISlmcdbdg-3D-3D), Oct 2).

---

## 7. America's wall: Detroit asks to keep it up, Washington wavers

The 50th Automotive News Congress in Detroit was dominated by one subject. Automotive News Asia editor Hans Greimel said on [Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGmnR0U-2F2muKePon0c6-2BrzkpMQZpCmIJG8PAmWHcQK5HNqd468bqcXPF9m1go4eYM4nJx1pOF0GulGOaCTA1QnRfjJ9iEKndjDPovaUO4jHw-3D-3DUU9Q_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMbDmUTlZjipenpshu2ZtQyfz-2FXIHvSQH-2FhqZZecs0Mp6O0aRGbbMqa2qKGLx-2Fi0QW7CDKqz-2BJniZqIAWxKws2mPKcb-2F47CqnYe7Sds5ft9WogEoWbeX8SHtOWoMHugWB1A-3D-3D) (Sept 30) that China was "maybe, I would say, 60 to 70 percent of the topics here."

*The warnings were stark.* On the Oct 3 Daily Drive, Larry Vellequette said executives from Ford, GM, Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz "all but declared this a make-or-break moment." Highlights:

* *GM's Duncan Aldred* said Mexico put a *50%* tariff on Chinese cars, and "the price didn't change." Chinese brands kept swamping the market anyway.
* *Australia*, Vellequette said, is "on a rapid, rapid path" to Chinese brands taking half the market.
* China watcher *Michael Dunne* called this "D-Day" for where the US wants to go.
* The message from the stage, as Vellequette summed it up: "If we don't block the gate, we are going to get swamped too."

*Farley, in his own words.* On the Daily Drive bonus episode (Oct 4), the Ford CEO laid out the threat:

"Australia, if you're dealing in Australia, 25% of the market is Chinese… On the way to 50. Mexico… 25% of all vehicles sold in Mexico were sourced in China. This is not a theoretical thing. China will export 11 million vehicles this year. That's larger than the entire production in the United States of cars."

But he stopped short of calling for a total ban: "We need to be very careful and considered." He also defended Ford's battery deal with China's CATL in Michigan: "It's our factory, our people in Marshall, Michigan. But it's their IP… It's better than importing batteries." Ford reporter Michael Martinez noted that Farley was answering Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who publicly criticized that deal about a month ago.

*Stellantis admits it's behind.* On [Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgPMk48MYQG5ptr9Am5kUxI6AFbQ7jyZ-2BqkSk-2B4QogjGgx8pu9-2FR7NMLvTtXb2sLhiRG8SfgRMAKtbRAT3PJMYVIvtMmfUVzPe2mXOqE1b8QQ-3D-3DmvVY_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMVaLol4TIOO9NHnMmtYxiUxjlSeIIKbI2B9uZMCY2KTIIrHQK1nORsk2Bh1roLrBdwqQxXRzsRQjGdUtTyc4fkTmumK1r9rtoInaIi810mTKOmJdu1NnWLGcEYaDXvksOA-3D-3D) (Oct 1), Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa confirmed he's said Stellantis has lost the cost battle to China, "but not the war." His explanation: Chinese carmakers have "a very highly vertical integrated supply chain. Basically, they deal with suppliers that are their own supplier… They have prepared this vertical integration for 20 years." Stellantis's answer is a new low-cost platform, STLA One, starting in Europe.

*What are the incumbents doing with the time they've got?* Martinez made the sharpest point of the week on the Oct 3 Daily Drive. Tariffs and laws have given carmakers "the gift of time." Ford is rebuilding its Louisville plant to make a cheaper pickup, and GM wants to cut product development to two years. "But I haven't really heard a whole lot from the rest of the industry."

*Hyundai wants a level field.* Greimel said Hyundai CEO José Muñoz wants assurance that his company's *$26 billion* US investment through 2028 will earn a return before China is let in. He also explained why every foreign carmaker wants the wall to stay up: the US is "the cash cow for the legacy automakers worldwide… the last redoubt… that has not yet been breached by the Chinese."

*Meanwhile, in Washington:*

* *The Senate ban is on hold.* Last week the permanent ban on Chinese cars was expected to pass 99 to 1. On the Oct 1 Daily Drive, host Jake Neer said Senate aides told Reuters the sponsors *won't push for a vote until lawmakers return in November*, after the midterms, citing concerns from Senator Rand Paul. Sponsor Bernie Moreno says the final version will make sure *Mercedes-Benz* isn't caught by the ban. Mercedes worried it might be because of rules on companies with more than 15% Chinese ownership ([Autoline Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg7pJ7PZI3rGalZz-2F4q-2Bo0ahjoT6iWQiSi-2BlnEA8ni4BNccfsaDo1pd96yQzHkr6HEHisMbHPceofx83vDaJRzUwEItvDJEJ0w6JaEzxMtI7A-3D-3DPeFH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMYvsZ9OiKpn-2Fac76oIOw1azsm1CKGVD9YCwShz6csRHP4ybhy3GwQaC7-2BBiJlF5c1o7PNuOOh-2BNqHPYhtzIny-2FNJ53i7zurf6pLxOcG-2FIRTQx9KJ3kmBxZM3tndD07XYiw-3D-3D), Sept 30).
* *The President opened a door.* Martyn Lee on [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtEOxhKJtGnyg5OAprptZQ-2FfVQCf1moDEziBeoUbnTCWNMS1zlDgfm2gsMf-2F-2FG0z0WWD-2B4Wa-2Fbthk3jKqL-2FvQx8tWRq1IW5B53mBv3unmzfQ-3D-3DH5sp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMSog-2Fo3XUTtypFYWTg1rnEBkZAEPa4Ic3idmoX-2BWh0ypwYsRhzEvc1H5WDQdgeZ3YJVj0oHNQ5nJWmsdeTR2Nfc6zZyyer-2Fkkgvj0RK2m63AyGTYgxwSj5uCKZ78ygDzeQ-3D-3D) (Oct 1) reported that, during the Chinese state visit, the President said Chinese carmakers are welcome to build cars in the US as long as they employ Americans. Six industry groups representing GM, Ford, Toyota, Stellantis, VW, Hyundai and Tesla have asked him to keep Chinese factories out.
* *The wall as it stands today.* On [The Valley Current](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhVetsXMvxxwZE8sI-2FRvG-2F0qLdtobjv8kk3TOEakyVq7aGSGkHc1nwyCUC-2FELyevnFEr6qmw0az9rO-2BAcgtgR3-2FcHLNsesNfu2pJ7u2C8jyhw-3D-3D5XVO_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMZuopBZ2YvH448o3XeYX7agqpmeQmKzT4wqPx9YxBCIA8u4GTH4icbM-2BwUuThmQC5764Kt0xyIQG4LMjP9vJXh6kY0w4aeUPJGhRvU8i-2B8-2F-2Fx94EDRF0hZ-2Bmb9OZsuVdJQ-3D-3D) (Oct 2), the hosts explained that a Commerce Department rule bans Chinese- or Russian-linked software in US cars from model year *2027* and hardware from *2030*. It applies "regardless of where the car is physically assembled," so a BYD built in Mexico can't get in through the free-trade deal. On top of that is a combined *127.5%* tariff. Their conclusion: the near-term threat of a "$10,000 Chinese EV" arriving in the US is "virtually zero."
* *Mexico is the next front.* On [Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhydXULcClF0X-2B14vpw-2F6ALMGinj7zuzApaapgvsDt1n-2BhbM5ehBfXND-2BWYB0QRryJhNKlaOHyWeO06QPQBAU5Q9EO6U6rh1INBzdaqMEA49A-3D-3DuvEp_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMSGZCaRAdV4JhCfdyC2bXdpKFzkcEWe3K5HHxZTDaVumg91ItdiJOSj-2Fnj8zwQOoXBEjpaDyh-2BTggIPZgGNX4932iGf0aFV19-2F6JW-2B-2BA-2BVmTbAloyoyn1cZDFaC4ltOM8Q-3D-3D) (Sept 28), Nissan Americas chairman Christian Meunier predicted Chinese carmakers will build cars *inside* Mexico within *two to three years* to get around Mexico's 50% tariff.

*The Canada fight.* On [Making Billions](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjxVsRKENessZb7UyBm-2FRfmxmY7jFTRG6FsTRTY-2FaFhp3AiodQW9ZoP0iIqvLw1qr2b4ijNm4403Cl0B8i38R2LAkOQsGf0SbquDLfwV6MMQw-3D-3Dz9kb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMf8fl3jyuKBx9aqzKCDCOSY8KKRFpkQWgvhTlJy-2FEgO8LQkWv6FymiLYXiVHaLak3wxIRRsqigfkKlKnF9gUtyUz4I-2Be42tUv1FqT1Wp1C8TADBUHBMoIspc-2BTZTLpF2uQ-3D-3D) (Oct 5), host Ryan Miller recapped the state of the US-Canada trade war. Washington used a 1930 law, Section 338, to put a *50%* tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods, *$19 billion* of it cars and trucks, starting August 19th, with no free-trade exemption. Canada hit back on September 8th with tariffs on American dairy, farm equipment and more, aimed, he said, at swing states. The North American trade deal now faces a review every year until 2036. Miller called his own read "a hypothesis": that "the tariff is a negotiating position first and a revenue tool second." His historical example: after the US capped Japanese car imports in 1981, Japanese carmakers built *eight* US assembly plants within a decade.

---

## 8. At home: lower fuel rules, smaller cars, stuck EVs

*Fuel-economy rules cut.* [Automotive News Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhydXULcClF0X-2B14vpw-2F6ALMGinj7zuzApaapgvsDt1n-2BhbM5ehBfXND-2BWYB0QRryJhNKlaOHyWeO06QPQBAU5Q9EO6U6rh1INBzdaqMEA49A-3D-3DvZOQ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMdFe2PYmaBVpyyXtFCFLdRpR92vhnL8FTTm3poLsnzty81ikRdbdmSj2AIFUsRkApS4M-2F7WcNZSfDEWptqcw6k3LLncJp9-2F4q30OhYnQkSdUqB-2BdDLmK8bnuXq4NMV3L5g-3D-3D) (Sept 28) reported the administration finalized a rollback of federal fuel-economy standards to *34.9 mpg* for model year 2031, down from roughly *50 mpg* under the previous rules. Secretary Duffy says it will make cars more affordable. Critics say it could mean higher gas bills later. On [Automotive State of the Union](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgsPoMBQ59uOSRbFRYwF0PPPglMpMJFMIBgh-2BrRgRm1iCgVQBsvKVvUtp8LVTVolhqnBWgdjdkT7WQd-2Fc8kiEaE5Kj5M77UWhQzSK6QASrdnw-3D-3DSxap_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMXs-2FE5Po9IKnKThtbPTTXUxwgYZ-2B0OYR-2B4LGmU0BLQ3oQHz-2BYFzaxh7Ow6Iyp1d9dWpznsCqu-2BHQvI9PtlOyvKeKNwH5YopWoWoXY-2BnntIN0yayLPzFBtLt8ptmuY3OEhg-3D-3D) (Sept 29), the hosts noted the industry-wide average is *already* about *35.4 mpg*. "Looks like they set the bar just under what we could already jump." They said the real losers are Tesla and Rivian, which have been selling regulatory credits to other carmakers: "That's free money, folks… free right to the bottom line." Credit trading is ending.

*What counts as a truck.* Autoline Daily (Sept 30) explained a second rule change. Today about *70%* of US vehicles are classified as trucks, which face easier rules, and *30%* as cars. New tests for towing and off-road ability will flip that. The upside, per Autoline: smaller crossovers and minivans, because carmakers will no longer have to "bloat them up" to qualify as trucks.

*Americans are downsizing.* On [Automotive State of the Union](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhfsTC9OHRFem9U-2FPpCUHs-2FLcSe177x7-2BCeQqeIU-2FuLOHTn9ZPo2r0tthOmcES0DW1nfIyeUHCHK28Gn5DOCf6oXeRUvRjBF18Zr9AIU7WgLQ-3D-3DyePl_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMZdiRDKQlOALIg0NdoXrRWtWdoZzJn-2BEmbcpBelKkU3hKkQty-2FK-2BqVcONKVipa0FJnyILkdkvzMxxRxnaHy3qyvIq0yL7mUh0ZiR8sQr94T-2FsoZWRq5OnXuduu1X7OgbBA-3D-3D) (Oct 2), the hosts walked through third-quarter sales as high car prices and gas costs bite:

* *Chevy Trax and Trailblazer* posted strong gains, and *Hyundai Elantra* was up *18%*. All three start under *$25,000*.
* *Honda's car sales* were up *18%*, their best since 2020.
* *Jeep Grand Cherokee* fell *30%*, and Suburban and Tahoe sales declined.
* *Stellantis* was flat, with few models under *$40,000*.

Hyundai Motor America CEO Randy Parker: "Thank God we never gave up on passenger cars because that's helping us gain more share."

On Daily Drive (Oct 1), Honda, Hyundai and Kia all posted September gains, and Honda reached six straight months of growth. Analysts expected the overall market to rise *6 to 9%* in September, yet the full third quarter could still fall as much as *1%*. On The Valley Current (Oct 2), the hosts cited a forecast that Detroit's three carmakers will hit a record-low *36.3%* US share for the quarter. Their explanation was "self-inflicted" wounds: big bets on pure EVs when buyers wanted hybrids. They tallied the write-downs:

* *Ford:* a *$19.5 billion* EV charge
* *GM:* *$7.9 billion* for 2025, plus *$3.4 billion* more in the first half of 2026
* *Stellantis:* *€22.2 billion*, and a suspended dividend

Their analogy: Detroit spent $20 billion tearing out its kitchens to build "massive state-of-the-art pizza ovens," while "Toyota just bought a really good air fryer combo."

*Hybrids are where the money goes.* Hyundai is putting about *$500 million* into its Alabama plants to build Tucson and Santa Fe hybrids and a range-extended EV, moving Tucson hybrid production out of Korea to avoid tariffs ([Daily Drive](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgGmnR0U-2F2muKePon0c6-2BrzkpMQZpCmIJG8PAmWHcQK5HNqd468bqcXPF9m1go4eYM4nJx1pOF0GulGOaCTA1QnRfjJ9iEKndjDPovaUO4jHw-3D-3DLkDC_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMSLciZ1b8IDyTZqdoa7YbWkzSRSUIpAJGXdeEK3aASOFzxsdHvc7U1YzyFieovieJGCNWDtJY1jFVjyAj7P8USJhGJ3AOCzQiyF3KHH8UPtXDrzgtK2yFLe5WcvyVCl9fw-3D-3D), Sept 30). On [Shift](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOigVXNTg6dRnlLXtPAb9yTb-2B-2FoEjo5hyaKSF7At8C7WqQEx7hfkvvDeHdJhoul3o9Td8Qp4ZJyMTHg4PRgkryNJbkuCZkqc0qUwJp-2FH-2BVMW2w-3D-3DZkR7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMdSFWv8wZ7c6ydmcxqx3-2BlfYNM65NbB1QkVkoc3eepJP-2BzupmxVaIJfjOcnqahsy0Bz-2FNi3cjklkhpiNJBZUnlByPv0dN0bzjoeN6ZMH4P7Gk5wUSZPM-2FRL4ua8EG7IBXQ-3D-3D) (Oct 4), PwC's CJ Finn said hybrids are taking share from gas cars, not EVs. EVs sit at "about *7-8%*," and PwC expects the tipping point, when owning an EV costs less overall, around *2030*.

*EVs after the tax credit.* On [Marketplace](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgv3gB8PNi-2FFRBj1Z1jboBCMyqkmRJsmvqDyPaOrW3LS4Nqq7juEbdCVVc8cH1TXmfq-2BN4q-2Bke-2B9PK-2BFOv5m2wjXqFkIzqR4NM1HFvD36r7qA-3D-3D5g4F_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMStcB-2BNDjwNQ0BDGgI2T2-2FExcN9cQuhzwElFnsJ5f7yWfcVJ6xf5kMJ5qEw9EBLKTslEkXzug6tEIpb6FalfkNESP47fz7NfscQYJ8FdyQ5dteZe1WIPqaKL312BQili6g-3D-3D) (Oct 2), reporter Henry Epp said EV sales peaked at *10%* of the market just before the federal credit ended last year and have "stayed around *6%*" since, citing Cox Automotive. Honda and Acura canceled an EV lineup, and Ford ended the electric F-150. Ingrid Malmgren of the advocacy group Plug In America: "The training wheels are off. They have to thrive on their own merits." One used-EV dealer, Jesse Lohr, put a number on it. About *60* customers used state rebates at his lots in the past year, compared with *110* federal credits in just the last three months before they ended.

*GM's mixed signals.* GM President Mark Reuss told Autoline Daily (Sept 30) that GM is "playing the long game" on EVs, because switching strategy with every rule change is too expensive. But [ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgmjSoCDcSIntateNbWrw0XB8GguVt4bGfBJ8ORkqCQ4xEFa2Q7cCFWYwpNPZXQTPLxKoJv9UtaAZYXfHdxBBuVzJF9XdYs8C4APPia2GlLVQ-3D-3D_QkA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMQEZhiiEFSirUNyOg7fJgI3HiLew203pxkExZ0xPZPVbvww2z45jtxwOAtmf7E8bfFLuIOxA-2FH3nYUC1Xg7M8Mk9bEmS-2FoJQHg0QpluSzn8zXAYCAzw2wfDiT2bgS4IdQw-3D-3D) (Oct 3) reported the revived Chevy Bolt (*$29,000*, 262-mile range) will end production in early 2027 after only about *35,000* cars, per a UAW official speaking to Reuters. The Kansas plant had been on pace for about *150,000*. The host: "I thought that would sell like hotcakes."

*Elsewhere in the factory world:*

* *BMW* is spending about *€2 billion* to move 3 Series production from Mexico to Germany. Mexican-built models face a *27.5%* US tariff versus *15%* from Europe ([Autoline Daily](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg7pJ7PZI3rGalZz-2F4q-2Bo0ahjoT6iWQiSi-2BlnEA8ni4BNccfsaDo1pd96yQzHkr6HEHisMbHPceofx83vDaJRzUwEItvDJEJ0w6JaEzxMtI7A-3D-3DeWqr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMQnxwTlv8W5CMNxvqK9-2BhvawWwixQS4vM0nUUtUMLqUZhbMJ9Xjnpp8b3FKYtJJpwJiwNVxowOR4-2FOif23touxWxFI7DwGczujF7XA5xZPLYhGnChkBljgSs-2BO5DvsNO2g-3D-3D), Sept 30).
* *Stellantis* halted production at two French plants because its battery joint venture, ACC, couldn't supply enough battery packs ([ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgmjSoCDcSIntateNbWrw0XB8GguVt4bGfBJ8ORkqCQ4xEFa2Q7cCFWYwpNPZXQTPLxKoJv9UtaAZYXfHdxBBuVzJF9XdYs8C4APPia2GlLVQ-3D-3DppJ9_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMbtXwEBia2LDedi6lEFW1QtUfgAzWIDq-2FqYaGyjSDWkIWtdqFZDixijNAg0lgtOJmn370iibHaVExfv888VuNQ6eREKBuffyJiOkuW3jrCWI8gF3N0JjK8i-2BkMVchxzv-2BA-3D-3D), Oct 3).
* *Volkswagen* has expanded what it calls the largest restructuring in its 90-year history, with job cuts that could reach *100,000* by the end of the decade ([ev.news](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhtEOxhKJtGnyg5OAprptZQ-2FfVQCf1moDEziBeoUbnTCWNMS1zlDgfm2gsMf-2F-2FG0z0WWD-2B4Wa-2Fbthk3jKqL-2FvQx8tWRq1IW5B53mBv3unmzfQ-3D-3DtITT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbWCqCRy-2BX1YvAShWbVd-2BBeuyhfsOG5KmuLQdXjIucDtMeJr7c1hBen0QIL3-2BLF9-2BP2u35nijiqTCd-2BdO3MNn7MZMK0hdW4PKUQP2YnJTQtuUrRXGtC-2BHuuE2mDRNkn4Ep9nQcTOryz7gd-2BCm7z4QtY-2B6Tcb6MYje0rIGyg-2FZqy6uw-3D-3D), Oct 1). As Martyn Lee put it, "the Americans are saying, look what the Europeans are going through, we don't want that."

---

## What we're watching

* *October 15th in Waco.* The rescheduled Roadster reveal. Watch for a real price, a delivery date, and whether the fan-car patent shows up on the car. Fred Lambert's warning stands: another delay "wouldn't be shocking."
* *Tesla vs. NHTSA.* Tesla owed the regulator a response on the Cybercab around October 1st. Phil Koopman expects Tesla to drag the process out for "a year or more." The bulls see clearing it as the trigger for a big ramp.
* *The Paris Motor Show, from October 12th.* Leapmotor, Xpeng (with its new right-hand-drive models) and Alpine's electric A110 are all due. Expect more Chinese brands pitching Europe directly.
* *BYD's export pace.* It needs about 185,000 overseas sales a month to hit the low end of its roughly 2 million goal. Shipping, not demand, is the stated limit.
* *The Senate ban after November.* The sponsors plan to bring it back once lawmakers return. Watch whether the Mercedes carve-out and Rand Paul's concerns change the 99-to-1 math, and whether the President's "build here" comment softens anything.
* *Aurora's truck count.* 200 driverless trucks by year-end is the near-term test of its 30,000-by-2030 promise.
* *Robotaxi prices vs. Uber.* BofA puts Tesla rides 30% below Uber and Lyft. If that gap holds as Waabi, Wayve and others line up behind Uber, the question of whether Uber buys a self-driving company gets more urgent.

---

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